October 15 • Four-model Sports comparison

Sport	Matchup / Eastern start	Classic	Primary	Tighten Up Conservative ON	Tighten Up Conservative OFF	Adjusted winner agreement	Home spread	Total
MLB	Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians 1:00 PM ET	4.0 / 4.0 Adj 4.0 / 4.0	3.5 / 3.5 Adj 3.5 / 3.5	4.5 / 4.0 Adj 4.5 / 4.0	4.5 / 4.0 Adj 4.5 / 4.0	Tampa Bay Rays	-1.5	6.50
NHL	Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs 7:00 PM ET	3.5 / 3.5 Adj 3.5 / 3.5	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	Buffalo Sabres	-1.5	6.50
NHL	New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators 7:00 PM ET	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	2.5 / 3.0 Adj 2.5 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	Ottawa Senators	-1.5	5.50
NHL	Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning 7:00 PM ET	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	2.5 / 3.5 Adj 2.5 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	Tampa Bay Lightning	-1.5	6.50
NHL	Vancouver Canucks at Florida Panthers 7:00 PM ET	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	Florida Panthers	-1.5	6.50
NHL	New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils 7:00 PM ET	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	New York Rangers	-1.5	5.50
NCAAF	East Carolina Pirates at UAB Blazers 7:30 PM ET	30.0 / 23.5 Adj 30.0 / 23.5	27.5 / 27.0 Adj 27.5 / 27.0	33.5 / 21.5 Adj 33.5 / 21.5	33.5 / 21.5 Adj 33.5 / 21.5	East Carolina Pirates	+5.5	47.50
NCAAF	Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs 7:30 PM ET	24.0 / 28.0 Adj 24.0 / 28.0	20.0 / 31.5 Adj 20.0 / 31.5	24.0 / 30.0 Adj 24.0 / 30.0	24.0 / 30.0 Adj 24.0 / 30.0	Old Dominion Monarchs	+3.5	47.50
NHL	Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings 7:30 PM ET	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	No agreement	-1.5	5.50
NBA	Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks 7:30 PM ET	111.0 / 115.5 Adj 111.0 / 115.5	108.5 / 114.0 Adj 108.5 / 114.0	112.5 / 114.0 Adj 112.5 / 114.0	112.5 / 114.0 Adj 112.5 / 114.0	New York Knicks	-5.5	225.50
NCAAF	Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats 8:00 PM ET	28.5 / 35.5 Adj 28.5 / 35.5	24.0 / 40.5 Adj 24.0 / 40.5	28.0 / 38.5 Adj 28.0 / 38.5	28.0 / 38.5 Adj 28.0 / 38.5	Texas State Bobcats	-14.5	70.50
NHL	Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks 8:00 PM ET	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	Winnipeg Jets	+1.5	6.50
NHL	San Jose Sharks at Nashville Predators 8:00 PM ET	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	Nashville Predators	-1.5	6.50
NHL	St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild 8:00 PM ET	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	Minnesota Wild	-1.5	5.50
MLB	Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers 8:00 PM ET	4.5 / 4.5 Adj 4.5 / 4.5	3.5 / 3.5 Adj 3.5 / 3.5	4.5 / 4.5 Adj 4.5 / 4.5	4.5 / 4.5 Adj 4.5 / 4.5	No agreement	-1.5	7.50
NFL	Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos 8:15 PM ET	23.0 / 21.0 Adj 20.0 / 18.0	22.5 / 20.5 Adj 19.5 / 17.5	24.0 / 20.5 Adj 21.0 / 17.5	24.0 / 20.5 Adj 21.0 / 17.5	Seattle Seahawks	+2.5	40.50
NBA	Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets 8:30 PM ET	113.0 / 113.0 Adj 113.0 / 113.0	112.5 / 110.0 Adj 112.5 / 110.0	114.5 / 111.5 Adj 114.5 / 111.5	114.5 / 111.5 Adj 114.5 / 111.5	No agreement	+3.5	224.50
NHL	Utah Mammoth at Edmonton Oilers 9:00 PM ET	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.5 / 3.5 Adj 3.5 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	No agreement	-1.5	6.50
NHL	Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights 10:00 PM ET	2.5 / 3.5 Adj 2.5 / 3.5	2.5 / 3.5 Adj 2.5 / 3.5	2.5 / 3.0 Adj 2.5 / 3.0	2.5 / 3.0 Adj 2.5 / 3.0	Vegas Golden Knights	-1.5	6.50

Event	Home line	Total	winner	spread	total	winner + spread	winner + total	spread + total	winner + spread + total
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians	-1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs	-1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators	-1.5	5.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning	-1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Vancouver Canucks at Florida Panthers	-1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	—	Yes	—	—	—
New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils	-1.5	5.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
East Carolina Pirates at UAB Blazers	+5.5	47.50	Yes	—	Yes	—	Yes	—	—
Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs	+3.5	47.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings	-1.5	5.50	—	Yes	Yes	—	—	Yes	—
Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks	-5.5	225.50	Yes	—	—	—	—	—	—
Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats	-14.5	70.50	Yes	—	Yes	—	Yes	—	—
Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks	+1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
San Jose Sharks at Nashville Predators	-1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild	-1.5	5.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers	-1.5	7.50	—	Yes	—	—	—	—	—
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos	+2.5	40.50	Yes	—	Yes	—	Yes	—	—
Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets	+3.5	224.50	—	Yes	—	—	—	—	—
Utah Mammoth at Edmonton Oilers	-1.5	6.50	—	Yes	—	—	—	—	—
Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights	-1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians · 1:00 PM ET

Away: Tampa Bay Rays · Home: Cleveland Guardians · Progressive Field. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 3.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	4.0 / 4.0 Adjusted 4.0 / 4.0	Tampa Bay Rays Home margin -0.01 Total 8.41	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.51 Total: LEAN Difference 1.91	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/1; 95% Wilson 0.0–79.3%; Oct14, stage 3; skips 0
Primary	3.5 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.5	Tampa Bay Rays Home margin -0.25 Total 6.82	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.75 Total: NO_EDGE Difference 0.32	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct14, stage 3; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	4.5 / 4.0 Adjusted 4.5 / 4.0	Tampa Bay Rays Home margin -0.23 Total 8.43	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.73 Total: LEAN Difference 1.93	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct14, stage 3; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	4.5 / 4.0 Adjusted 4.5 / 4.0	Tampa Bay Rays Home margin -0.23 Total 8.43	Spread: TIER ELIGIBLE Buffer -1.73 Total: TIER ELIGIBLE Difference 1.93	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct14, stage 3; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+111 / -134	+1.5 (-202) / -1.5 (+165)	6.50 — O -120 / U -101	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Tampa Bay Rays: Caminero/De Luca said fine after collision. Palacios righty lineup replaces Williamson; De Luca/Mullins CF pending. Mc Clanahan separate pitching absence. Cleveland Guardians: Official FAQ reports no injuries. Bailey projected return to Williams battery versus Hedges Game 2; De Lauter RF/Adell DH role switch.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current; home: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current. Primary uses 4951 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Full 2026 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean; no pitcher, park or lineup coefficient. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. Current batting-slot opportunity and bench branches are retained in the official reference-box ledger; unannounced lineups remain conditional.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Progressive Field; listed 2026-10-15T17:00Z. Official MLB matchup, time and postseason stage agree. Probable pitchers and batting opportunities reviewed separately.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:49.595586+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-15T05:16:23+00:00; periods: number: 13; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T13:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T14:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 66; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 2; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 11.11111111111111; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 62; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 14; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T14:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T15:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 3; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 11.666666666666666; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 59; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 15; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T15:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 68; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 3; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 12.222222222222221; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 60; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 16; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T17:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 70; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 4; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 12.777777777777779; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 60; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Sunny; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

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  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.5131558641975316,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.5131558641975316,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "alcs-starter-role",
      "replacement-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Tampa Bay Rays",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -202.0,
    "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.",
    "stressed_home_margin": 0.9868441358024684,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.",
      "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.",
      "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.908757716049383,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.9087577160493829,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "alcs-starter-role",
      "replacement-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 6.5,
    "price": -120.0,
    "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.",
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.408757716049383,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.",
      "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.",
      "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero."
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.7452103450901815,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.7452103450901815,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "alcs-starter-role",
      "replacement-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Tampa Bay Rays",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -202.0,
    "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.",
    "stressed_home_margin": 0.7547896549098185,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.",
      "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.",
      "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 0.3203871836124996,
    "base_floor_met": false,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": -0.6796128163875004,
    "same_side_after_one_run": false,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": false,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": false,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "alcs-starter-role",
      "replacement-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "NO_EDGE",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 6.5,
    "price": -120.0,
    "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks do not all pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.",
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 5.8203871836125,
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks do not all pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.",
      "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.",
      "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero."
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5,
    "base_buffer": 1.731481481481481,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.731481481481481,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "alcs-starter-role",
      "replacement-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Tampa Bay Rays",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -202.0,
    "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Conservative ON does not promote unresolved medium availability risk and does not allow Free Picks.",
    "stressed_home_margin": 0.768518518518519,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Conservative ON does not promote unresolved medium availability risk and does not allow Free Picks.",
      "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.",
      "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5,
    "base_buffer": 1.9290123456790127,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.9290123456790127,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "alcs-starter-role",
      "replacement-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 6.5,
    "price": -120.0,
    "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Conservative ON does not promote unresolved medium availability risk and does not allow Free Picks.",
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.429012345679013,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Conservative ON does not promote unresolved medium availability risk and does not allow Free Picks.",
      "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.",
      "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero."
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.731481481481481,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.731481481481481,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "alcs-starter-role",
      "replacement-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": true,
    "maximum_tier": "Free Pick",
    "final_state": "TIER ELIGIBLE",
    "production_decision": "ELIGIBLE / FREE PICK ONLY",
    "selection": "Tampa Bay Rays",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -202.0,
    "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Two unresolved MEDIUM risks require downgrade; optional Free Pick only outside Conservative Mode. Parent publication ranking remains separate.",
    "stressed_home_margin": 0.768518518518519,
    "state": "TIER ELIGIBLE",
    "decision": "ELIGIBLE / FREE PICK ONLY",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Two unresolved MEDIUM risks require downgrade; optional Free Pick only outside Conservative Mode. Parent publication ranking remains separate.",
      "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.",
      "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.9290123456790127,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.9290123456790127,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "alcs-starter-role",
      "replacement-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": true,
    "maximum_tier": "Free Pick",
    "final_state": "TIER ELIGIBLE",
    "production_decision": "ELIGIBLE / FREE PICK ONLY",
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 6.5,
    "price": -120.0,
    "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Two unresolved MEDIUM risks require downgrade; optional Free Pick only outside Conservative Mode. Parent publication ranking remains separate.",
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.429012345679013,
    "state": "TIER ELIGIBLE",
    "decision": "ELIGIBLE / FREE PICK ONLY",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Two unresolved MEDIUM risks require downgrade; optional Free Pick only outside Conservative Mode. Parent publication ranking remains separate.",
      "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.",
      "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero."
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs · 7:00 PM ET

Away: Buffalo Sabres · Home: Toronto Maple Leafs · Scotiabank Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.5 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.5	Buffalo Sabres Home margin -0.07 Total 6.59	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.57 Total: LEAN Difference 0.09	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Buffalo Sabres Home margin -0.28 Total 6.75	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.78 Total: LEAN Difference 0.25	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Buffalo Sabres Home margin -0.52 Total 6.52	Spread: LEAN Buffer -2.02 Total: LEAN Difference 0.02	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Buffalo Sabres Home margin -0.52 Total 6.52	Spread: LEAN Buffer -2.02 Total: LEAN Difference 0.02	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-102 / -118	+1.5 (-245) / -1.5 (+200)	6.50 — O -122 / U +102	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.477387+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

BUF: Dahlin missed last game; Grzelcyk new IR compared with prior actual role. Power/Zellweger/Metsa/Crevier demonstrated defensive pool; Jones acquisition reviewed separately. TOR: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Scotiabank Arena; listed 2026-10-15T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators · 7:00 PM ET

Away: New York Islanders · Home: Ottawa Senators · Canadian Tire Centre. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Ottawa Senators Home margin 0.34 Total 5.98	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.16 Total: LEAN Difference 0.48	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	2.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 2.5 / 3.0	Ottawa Senators Home margin 0.46 Total 5.80	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.04 Total: LEAN Difference 0.30	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Ottawa Senators Home margin 0.23 Total 6.01	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.27 Total: LEAN Difference 0.51	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Ottawa Senators Home margin 0.23 Total 6.01	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.27 Total: LEAN Difference 0.51	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+140 / -166	+1.5 (-198) / -1.5 (+164)	5.50 — O -112 / U -108	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.421555+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

NYI: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. OTT: Greig strain/early exit confirmed by coach; conditional replacement branch. Eklund/Zub unavailable; Sanderson DTD conditional PP share.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Canadian Tire Centre; listed 2026-10-15T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning · 7:00 PM ET

Away: Seattle Kraken · Home: Tampa Bay Lightning · Benchmark International Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Tampa Bay Lightning Home margin 0.48 Total 6.18	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.02 Total: LEAN Difference -0.32	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	2.5 / 3.5 Adjusted 2.5 / 3.5	Tampa Bay Lightning Home margin 0.68 Total 6.15	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.82 Total: LEAN Difference -0.35	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Tampa Bay Lightning Home margin 0.55 Total 6.07	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.95 Total: LEAN Difference -0.43	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Tampa Bay Lightning Home margin 0.55 Total 6.07	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.95 Total: LEAN Difference -0.43	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+210 / -258	+1.5 (-125) / -1.5 (+105)	6.50 — O +102 / U -122	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.414917+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

SEA: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. TBL: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Benchmark International Arena; listed 2026-10-15T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Vancouver Canucks at Florida Panthers · 7:00 PM ET

Away: Vancouver Canucks · Home: Florida Panthers · Amerant Bank Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Florida Panthers Home margin 0.72 Total 6.56	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.78 Total: LEAN Difference 0.06	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Florida Panthers Home margin 0.93 Total 6.53	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.57 Total: LEAN Difference 0.03	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Florida Panthers Home margin 0.46 Total 6.37	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.04 Total: LEAN Difference -0.13	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Florida Panthers Home margin 0.46 Total 6.37	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.04 Total: LEAN Difference -0.13	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+240 / -298	+1.5 (-105) / -1.5 (-115)	6.50 — O +110 / U -130	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

VAN: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. FLA: Barkov/Marchand absent; Bennett/Lundell/Reinhart and Vilmanis/Lafferty redistribution; Gudas DTD conditional. Markstrom separate goalie flag.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 8 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Amerant Bank Arena; listed 2026-10-15T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils · 7:00 PM ET

Away: New York Rangers · Home: New Jersey Devils · Prudential Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	New York Rangers Home margin -0.21 Total 5.86	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.71 Total: LEAN Difference 0.36	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	New York Rangers Home margin -0.25 Total 5.85	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.75 Total: LEAN Difference 0.35	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	New York Rangers Home margin -0.08 Total 5.87	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.58 Total: LEAN Difference 0.37	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	New York Rangers Home margin -0.08 Total 5.87	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.58 Total: LEAN Difference 0.37	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+124 / -148	+1.5 (-218) / -1.5 (+180)	5.50 — O -135 / U +114	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.410107+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

NYR: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. NJD: Evangelista new DTD versus actual top-line reference; conditional exclusion. Brown/Bjugstad unavailable; old Siegenthaler flag compared with later play.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 8 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Prudential Center; listed 2026-10-15T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NCAAF · East Carolina Pirates at UAB Blazers · 7:30 PM ET

Away: East Carolina Pirates · Home: UAB Blazers · Protective Stadium. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	30.0 / 23.5 Adjusted 30.0 / 23.5	East Carolina Pirates Home margin -6.47 Total 53.62	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.97 Total: LEAN Difference 6.12	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	27.5 / 27.0 Adjusted 27.5 / 27.0	East Carolina Pirates Home margin -0.79 Total 54.58	Spread: LEAN Buffer 4.71 Total: LEAN Difference 7.08	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	33.5 / 21.5 Adjusted 33.5 / 21.5	East Carolina Pirates Home margin -12.39 Total 54.97	Spread: LEAN Buffer -6.89 Total: LEAN Difference 7.47	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	33.5 / 21.5 Adjusted 33.5 / 21.5	East Carolina Pirates Home margin -12.39 Total 54.97	Spread: LEAN Buffer -6.89 Total: LEAN Difference 7.47	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-205 / +170	-5.5 (-108) / +5.5 (-112)	47.50 — O -110 / U -110	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.594868+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

East Carolina Pirates: Brock Spalding Prior injury absence official notes; current final return unresolved; Spalding was the only returning offensive starter: nine starts in 13 games, 63 targets, 42 catches and 554 yards in 2025. In 2024 he had seven games, one start, 11 targets and five catches. Current notes show the injury absence and no October 10 appearance. His return remains unresolved, so continued unavailability is conditional. Gray, Melvin and Sides returned against Rice; no separate absence is inferred for them. UAB Blazers: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded ±10 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3–70. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded ±10 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3–70. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.

Gideon Marsh

Registered baselines are unchanged. Isolated minus-three scenarios and joint overlap are explicit; Conservative ON/OFF use identical scoring arithmetic. Unestimated defensive pathways retain the relevant risk gate.

ConstitutionOwl

Protective Stadium; listed 2026-10-15T23:30Z. Official NCAA complete weekly feed and host preview corroborate matchup, venue and kickoff. Personnel branches retained in football ledger.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:50.130849+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-15T05:05:52+00:00; periods: number: 19; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T18:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 83; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.77777777777778; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 53; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 20; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 79; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 58; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 74; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 69; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 72; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 73; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T23:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 70; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 78; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401862800",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "matchup": "East Carolina Pirates at UAB Blazers",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862800",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.414917+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.594868+00:00",
    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": -5.5,
    "home_line": 5.5,
    "pick": "East Carolina Pirates -5.5",
    "price": -108.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 6.889999999999997,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 3.889999999999997,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 3.889999999999997,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 0.889999999999997,
    "base_score": [
      33.6825,
      21.2925
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      33.6825,
      21.2925
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          33.6825,
          21.2925
        ],
        "buffer": 6.889999999999997,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.889999999999997,
        "adverse_score": [
          33.6825,
          24.2925
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 3.889999999999997
      },
      {
        "branch": "Brock Spalding — shared-opportunity overlap",
        "score": [
          30.682499999999997,
          21.2925
        ],
        "buffer": 3.889999999999997,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.889999999999997,
        "adverse_score": [
          30.682499999999997,
          24.2925
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 0.889999999999997
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Spalding return and replacement workload remain unresolved",
        "detail": "The established receiver has a documented prior injury absence. Preserve baseline and conditional minus-three scores. Current final availability and the future target allocation are not certified; live selections remain PASS.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 0.889999999999997,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "Brock Spalding — shared-opportunity overlap",
        "score": [
          30.682499999999997,
          21.2925
        ],
        "buffer": 3.889999999999997,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.889999999999997,
        "adverse_score": [
          30.682499999999997,
          24.2925
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 0.889999999999997
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            33.6825,
            21.2925
          ],
          "buffer": 6.889999999999997,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.889999999999997,
          "adverse_score": [
            33.6825,
            24.2925
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 3.889999999999997
        },
        {
          "branch": "Brock Spalding — shared-opportunity overlap",
          "score": [
            30.682499999999997,
            21.2925
          ],
          "buffer": 3.889999999999997,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.889999999999997,
          "adverse_score": [
            30.682499999999997,
            24.2925
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.889999999999997
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": [
          30.043560606060602,
          23.577651515151516
        ],
        "buffer": 0.9659090909090864,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.0340909090909136,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": [
          27.68653102980505,
          26.897827554494352
        ],
        "buffer": -4.711296524689303,
        "stressed_buffer": -7.711296524689303,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      }
    ],
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        30.682499999999997,
        21.2925
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        33.6825,
        21.2925
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 51.974999999999994,
      "under_selection_total": 54.974999999999994
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401862800",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "matchup": "East Carolina Pirates at UAB Blazers",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862800",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.414917+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.594868+00:00",
    "selection_side": "over",
    "line": 47.5,
    "home_line": 5.5,
    "pick": "Over 47.5",
    "price": -110.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 7.474999999999994,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 4.474999999999994,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.474999999999994,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 1.4749999999999943,
    "base_score": [
      33.6825,
      21.2925
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      33.6825,
      21.2925
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          33.6825,
          21.2925
        ],
        "buffer": 7.474999999999994,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.474999999999994,
        "adverse_score": [
          30.682499999999997,
          21.2925
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 4.474999999999994
      },
      {
        "branch": "Brock Spalding — shared-opportunity overlap",
        "score": [
          30.682499999999997,
          21.2925
        ],
        "buffer": 4.474999999999994,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.474999999999994,
        "adverse_score": [
          27.682499999999997,
          21.2925
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.4749999999999943
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Spalding return and replacement workload remain unresolved",
        "detail": "The established receiver has a documented prior injury absence. Preserve baseline and conditional minus-three scores. Current final availability and the future target allocation are not certified; live selections remain PASS.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 1.4749999999999943,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "Brock Spalding — shared-opportunity overlap",
        "score": [
          30.682499999999997,
          21.2925
        ],
        "buffer": 4.474999999999994,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.474999999999994,
        "adverse_score": [
          27.682499999999997,
          21.2925
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.4749999999999943
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            33.6825,
            21.2925
          ],
          "buffer": 7.474999999999994,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.474999999999994,
          "adverse_score": [
            30.682499999999997,
            21.2925
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.474999999999994
        },
        {
          "branch": "Brock Spalding — shared-opportunity overlap",
          "score": [
            30.682499999999997,
            21.2925
          ],
          "buffer": 4.474999999999994,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.474999999999994,
          "adverse_score": [
            27.682499999999997,
            21.2925
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.4749999999999943
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": [
          30.043560606060602,
          23.577651515151516
        ],
        "buffer": 6.1212121212121176,
        "stressed_buffer": 3.1212121212121176,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": [
          27.68653102980505,
          26.897827554494352
        ],
        "buffer": 7.084358584299402,
        "stressed_buffer": 4.084358584299402,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      }
    ],
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        30.682499999999997,
        21.2925
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        33.6825,
        21.2925
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 51.974999999999994,
      "under_selection_total": 54.974999999999994
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401862800",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "matchup": "East Carolina Pirates at UAB Blazers",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862800",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.414917+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.594868+00:00",
    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": -5.5,
    "home_line": 5.5,
    "pick": "East Carolina Pirates -5.5",
    "price": -108.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 6.889999999999997,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 3.889999999999997,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 3.889999999999997,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 0.889999999999997,
    "base_score": [
      33.6825,
      21.2925
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      33.6825,
      21.2925
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          33.6825,
          21.2925
        ],
        "buffer": 6.889999999999997,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.889999999999997,
        "adverse_score": [
          33.6825,
          24.2925
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 3.889999999999997
      },
      {
        "branch": "Brock Spalding — shared-opportunity overlap",
        "score": [
          30.682499999999997,
          21.2925
        ],
        "buffer": 3.889999999999997,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.889999999999997,
        "adverse_score": [
          30.682499999999997,
          24.2925
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 0.889999999999997
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Spalding return and replacement workload remain unresolved",
        "detail": "The established receiver has a documented prior injury absence. Preserve baseline and conditional minus-three scores. Current final availability and the future target allocation are not certified; live selections remain PASS.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 0.889999999999997,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "Brock Spalding — shared-opportunity overlap",
        "score": [
          30.682499999999997,
          21.2925
        ],
        "buffer": 3.889999999999997,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.889999999999997,
        "adverse_score": [
          30.682499999999997,
          24.2925
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 0.889999999999997
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            33.6825,
            21.2925
          ],
          "buffer": 6.889999999999997,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.889999999999997,
          "adverse_score": [
            33.6825,
            24.2925
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 3.889999999999997
        },
        {
          "branch": "Brock Spalding — shared-opportunity overlap",
          "score": [
            30.682499999999997,
            21.2925
          ],
          "buffer": 3.889999999999997,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.889999999999997,
          "adverse_score": [
            30.682499999999997,
            24.2925
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.889999999999997
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": [
          30.043560606060602,
          23.577651515151516
        ],
        "buffer": 0.9659090909090864,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.0340909090909136,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": [
          27.68653102980505,
          26.897827554494352
        ],
        "buffer": -4.711296524689303,
        "stressed_buffer": -7.711296524689303,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      }
    ],
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        30.682499999999997,
        21.2925
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        33.6825,
        21.2925
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 51.974999999999994,
      "under_selection_total": 54.974999999999994
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401862800",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "matchup": "East Carolina Pirates at UAB Blazers",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862800",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.414917+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.594868+00:00",
    "selection_side": "over",
    "line": 47.5,
    "home_line": 5.5,
    "pick": "Over 47.5",
    "price": -110.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 7.474999999999994,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 4.474999999999994,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.474999999999994,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 1.4749999999999943,
    "base_score": [
      33.6825,
      21.2925
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      33.6825,
      21.2925
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          33.6825,
          21.2925
        ],
        "buffer": 7.474999999999994,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.474999999999994,
        "adverse_score": [
          30.682499999999997,
          21.2925
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 4.474999999999994
      },
      {
        "branch": "Brock Spalding — shared-opportunity overlap",
        "score": [
          30.682499999999997,
          21.2925
        ],
        "buffer": 4.474999999999994,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.474999999999994,
        "adverse_score": [
          27.682499999999997,
          21.2925
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.4749999999999943
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Spalding return and replacement workload remain unresolved",
        "detail": "The established receiver has a documented prior injury absence. Preserve baseline and conditional minus-three scores. Current final availability and the future target allocation are not certified; live selections remain PASS.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 1.4749999999999943,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "Brock Spalding — shared-opportunity overlap",
        "score": [
          30.682499999999997,
          21.2925
        ],
        "buffer": 4.474999999999994,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.474999999999994,
        "adverse_score": [
          27.682499999999997,
          21.2925
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.4749999999999943
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            33.6825,
            21.2925
          ],
          "buffer": 7.474999999999994,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.474999999999994,
          "adverse_score": [
            30.682499999999997,
            21.2925
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.474999999999994
        },
        {
          "branch": "Brock Spalding — shared-opportunity overlap",
          "score": [
            30.682499999999997,
            21.2925
          ],
          "buffer": 4.474999999999994,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.474999999999994,
          "adverse_score": [
            27.682499999999997,
            21.2925
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.4749999999999943
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": [
          30.043560606060602,
          23.577651515151516
        ],
        "buffer": 6.1212121212121176,
        "stressed_buffer": 3.1212121212121176,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": [
          27.68653102980505,
          26.897827554494352
        ],
        "buffer": 7.084358584299402,
        "stressed_buffer": 4.084358584299402,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      }
    ],
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        30.682499999999997,
        21.2925
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        33.6825,
        21.2925
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 51.974999999999994,
      "under_selection_total": 54.974999999999994
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

Classic

Conditional joint 30.0 / 23.5

Brock Spalding: Prior injury absence official notes; current final return unresolved; isolated 27.0 / 23.5; other team production 27.0 / 23.5

Primary

Conditional joint 27.5 / 27.0

Brock Spalding: Prior injury absence official notes; current final return unresolved; isolated 24.5 / 27.0; other team production 24.5 / 27.0

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 33.5 / 21.5

Brock Spalding: Prior injury absence official notes; current final return unresolved; isolated 30.5 / 21.5; other team production 30.5 / 21.5

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 33.5 / 21.5

Brock Spalding: Prior injury absence official notes; current final return unresolved; isolated 30.5 / 21.5; other team production 30.5 / 21.5

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NCAAF · Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs · 7:30 PM ET

Away: Georgia Southern Eagles · Home: Old Dominion Monarchs · S.B. Ballard Stadium. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	24.0 / 28.0 Adjusted 24.0 / 28.0	Old Dominion Monarchs Home margin 4.02 Total 52.15	Spread: LEAN Buffer 7.52 Total: LEAN Difference 4.65	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	20.0 / 31.5 Adjusted 20.0 / 31.5	Old Dominion Monarchs Home margin 11.30 Total 51.26	Spread: LEAN Buffer 14.80 Total: LEAN Difference 3.76	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	24.0 / 30.0 Adjusted 24.0 / 30.0	Old Dominion Monarchs Home margin 6.04 Total 53.65	Spread: LEAN Buffer 9.54 Total: LEAN Difference 6.15	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	24.0 / 30.0 Adjusted 24.0 / 30.0	Old Dominion Monarchs Home margin 6.04 Total 53.65	Spread: LEAN Buffer 9.54 Total: LEAN Difference 6.15	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-180 / +150	-3.5 (-110) / +3.5 (-110)	47.50 — O -112 / U -108	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.586472+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Georgia Southern Eagles: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger. Old Dominion Monarchs: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded ±10 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3–70. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded ±10 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3–70. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.

Gideon Marsh

Registered baselines are unchanged. Isolated minus-three scenarios and joint overlap are explicit; Conservative ON/OFF use identical scoring arithmetic. Unestimated defensive pathways retain the relevant risk gate.

ConstitutionOwl

S.B. Ballard Stadium; listed 2026-10-15T23:30Z. Official NCAA complete weekly feed and host preview corroborate matchup, venue and kickoff. Personnel branches retained in football ledger.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:50.024253+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T20:03:15+00:00; periods: number: 20; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 93; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 93; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 93; windSpeed: 7 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T23:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 93; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 24; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T23:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-16T00:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 97; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401869950",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "matchup": "Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869950",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.586472+00:00",
    "selection_side": "home",
    "line": 3.5,
    "home_line": 3.5,
    "pick": "Old Dominion Monarchs +3.5",
    "price": -110.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 9.537499999999998,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 9.537499999999998,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 9.537499999999998,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998,
    "base_score": [
      23.804166666666667,
      29.841666666666665
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      23.804166666666667,
      29.841666666666665
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          23.804166666666667,
          29.841666666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 9.537499999999998,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998,
        "adverse_score": [
          26.804166666666667,
          29.841666666666665
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation",
        "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Current Old Dominion offensive capability and rushing tempo diverge materially from the prior-year foundation",
        "detail": "This is an event-specific offensive-transition mechanism, not ordinary model disagreement. The official notes document Colton Joseph leaving for Wisconsin, a new offensive coordinator, Henicle returning from an injury absence, and 61 rushes for 207 yards in a 10-point last game. Six current games average 18.1667 points versus 32.6667 last season. The frozen current-matchup home component is 21.25 versus the 29.8417 production mean. This supported downside can erase more than half the spread edge and cross the over line; independent ordinary stress defeats both. Unconfirmed Connor Drake protection status remains a separate MEDIUM risk.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true,
        "sources": [
          "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\score-freeze.json",
          "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-game-notes.json",
          "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-preview.json"
        ],
        "adverse_cases": [
          {
            "name": "Frozen current-season matchup",
            "score": [
              26.083333333333336,
              21.25
            ],
            "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357,
            "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336,
            "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
            "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
            "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
          },
          {
            "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed",
            "score": [
              23.804166666666667,
              21.25
            ],
            "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329,
            "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667,
            "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333,
            "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333,
            "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
          }
        ],
        "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections 3, 5 and 7: current context, supported invalidation and adverse-case tests."
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Conservative ON excludes unresolved medium risk",
      "Unresolved HIGH: supported current offensive capability and tempo adverse case fails the selected market."
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 6.537499999999998,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          23.804166666666667,
          29.841666666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 9.537499999999998,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998,
        "adverse_score": [
          26.804166666666667,
          29.841666666666665
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998
      },
      "scenario_count": 1,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            23.804166666666667,
            29.841666666666665
          ],
          "buffer": 9.537499999999998,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998,
          "adverse_score": [
            26.804166666666667,
            29.841666666666665
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": [
          24.0625,
          28.083333333333332
        ],
        "buffer": 7.520833333333332,
        "stressed_buffer": 4.520833333333332,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": [
          19.980111458616914,
          31.279278722644904
        ],
        "buffer": 14.79916726402799,
        "stressed_buffer": 11.79916726402799,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      }
    ],
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        23.804166666666667,
        29.841666666666665
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        23.804166666666667,
        29.841666666666665
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 53.64583333333333,
      "under_selection_total": 53.64583333333333
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier.",
    "prior_numerical_decision": "PASS",
    "mechanism_adverse_cases": [
      {
        "name": "Frozen current-season matchup",
        "score": [
          26.083333333333336,
          21.25
        ],
        "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357,
        "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336,
        "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
      },
      {
        "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed",
        "score": [
          23.804166666666667,
          21.25
        ],
        "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329,
        "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667,
        "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333,
        "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333,
        "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
      }
    ],
    "policy_reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:58:53.027918+00:00"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401869950",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "matchup": "Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869950",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.586472+00:00",
    "selection_side": "over",
    "line": 47.5,
    "home_line": 3.5,
    "pick": "Over 47.5",
    "price": -112.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 6.145833333333329,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 6.145833333333329,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.145833333333329,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286,
    "base_score": [
      23.804166666666667,
      29.841666666666665
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      23.804166666666667,
      29.841666666666665
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          23.804166666666667,
          29.841666666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 6.145833333333329,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329,
        "adverse_score": [
          20.804166666666667,
          29.841666666666665
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation",
        "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Current Old Dominion offensive capability and rushing tempo diverge materially from the prior-year foundation",
        "detail": "This is an event-specific offensive-transition mechanism, not ordinary model disagreement. The official notes document Colton Joseph leaving for Wisconsin, a new offensive coordinator, Henicle returning from an injury absence, and 61 rushes for 207 yards in a 10-point last game. Six current games average 18.1667 points versus 32.6667 last season. The frozen current-matchup home component is 21.25 versus the 29.8417 production mean. This supported downside can erase more than half the spread edge and cross the over line; independent ordinary stress defeats both. Unconfirmed Connor Drake protection status remains a separate MEDIUM risk.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true,
        "sources": [
          "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\score-freeze.json",
          "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-game-notes.json",
          "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-preview.json"
        ],
        "adverse_cases": [
          {
            "name": "Frozen current-season matchup",
            "score": [
              26.083333333333336,
              21.25
            ],
            "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357,
            "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336,
            "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
            "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
            "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
          },
          {
            "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed",
            "score": [
              23.804166666666667,
              21.25
            ],
            "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329,
            "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667,
            "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333,
            "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333,
            "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
          }
        ],
        "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections 3, 5 and 7: current context, supported invalidation and adverse-case tests."
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Conservative ON excludes unresolved medium risk",
      "Unresolved HIGH: supported current offensive capability and tempo adverse case fails the selected market."
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 3.1458333333333286,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          23.804166666666667,
          29.841666666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 6.145833333333329,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329,
        "adverse_score": [
          20.804166666666667,
          29.841666666666665
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286
      },
      "scenario_count": 1,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            23.804166666666667,
            29.841666666666665
          ],
          "buffer": 6.145833333333329,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.804166666666667,
            29.841666666666665
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": [
          24.0625,
          28.083333333333332
        ],
        "buffer": 4.645833333333329,
        "stressed_buffer": 1.6458333333333286,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": [
          19.980111458616914,
          31.279278722644904
        ],
        "buffer": 3.7593901812618213,
        "stressed_buffer": 0.7593901812618213,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      }
    ],
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        23.804166666666667,
        29.841666666666665
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        23.804166666666667,
        29.841666666666665
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 53.64583333333333,
      "under_selection_total": 53.64583333333333
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier.",
    "prior_numerical_decision": "PASS",
    "mechanism_adverse_cases": [
      {
        "name": "Frozen current-season matchup",
        "score": [
          26.083333333333336,
          21.25
        ],
        "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357,
        "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336,
        "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
      },
      {
        "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed",
        "score": [
          23.804166666666667,
          21.25
        ],
        "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329,
        "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667,
        "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333,
        "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333,
        "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
      }
    ],
    "policy_reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:58:53.027918+00:00"
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401869950",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "matchup": "Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869950",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.586472+00:00",
    "selection_side": "home",
    "line": 3.5,
    "home_line": 3.5,
    "pick": "Old Dominion Monarchs +3.5",
    "price": -110.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 9.537499999999998,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 9.537499999999998,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 9.537499999999998,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998,
    "base_score": [
      23.804166666666667,
      29.841666666666665
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      23.804166666666667,
      29.841666666666665
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          23.804166666666667,
          29.841666666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 9.537499999999998,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998,
        "adverse_score": [
          26.804166666666667,
          29.841666666666665
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation",
        "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Current Old Dominion offensive capability and rushing tempo diverge materially from the prior-year foundation",
        "detail": "This is an event-specific offensive-transition mechanism, not ordinary model disagreement. The official notes document Colton Joseph leaving for Wisconsin, a new offensive coordinator, Henicle returning from an injury absence, and 61 rushes for 207 yards in a 10-point last game. Six current games average 18.1667 points versus 32.6667 last season. The frozen current-matchup home component is 21.25 versus the 29.8417 production mean. This supported downside can erase more than half the spread edge and cross the over line; independent ordinary stress defeats both. Unconfirmed Connor Drake protection status remains a separate MEDIUM risk.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true,
        "sources": [
          "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\score-freeze.json",
          "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-game-notes.json",
          "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-preview.json"
        ],
        "adverse_cases": [
          {
            "name": "Frozen current-season matchup",
            "score": [
              26.083333333333336,
              21.25
            ],
            "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357,
            "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336,
            "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
            "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
            "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
          },
          {
            "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed",
            "score": [
              23.804166666666667,
              21.25
            ],
            "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329,
            "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667,
            "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333,
            "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333,
            "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
          }
        ],
        "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections 3, 5 and 7: current context, supported invalidation and adverse-case tests."
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Unresolved HIGH: supported current offensive capability and tempo adverse case fails the selected market."
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 6.537499999999998,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          23.804166666666667,
          29.841666666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 9.537499999999998,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998,
        "adverse_score": [
          26.804166666666667,
          29.841666666666665
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998
      },
      "scenario_count": 1,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            23.804166666666667,
            29.841666666666665
          ],
          "buffer": 9.537499999999998,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998,
          "adverse_score": [
            26.804166666666667,
            29.841666666666665
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": [
          24.0625,
          28.083333333333332
        ],
        "buffer": 7.520833333333332,
        "stressed_buffer": 4.520833333333332,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": [
          19.980111458616914,
          31.279278722644904
        ],
        "buffer": 14.79916726402799,
        "stressed_buffer": 11.79916726402799,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      }
    ],
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        23.804166666666667,
        29.841666666666665
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        23.804166666666667,
        29.841666666666665
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 53.64583333333333,
      "under_selection_total": 53.64583333333333
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier.",
    "prior_numerical_decision": "CANDIDATE_ELIGIBLE",
    "mechanism_adverse_cases": [
      {
        "name": "Frozen current-season matchup",
        "score": [
          26.083333333333336,
          21.25
        ],
        "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357,
        "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336,
        "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
      },
      {
        "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed",
        "score": [
          23.804166666666667,
          21.25
        ],
        "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329,
        "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667,
        "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333,
        "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333,
        "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
      }
    ],
    "policy_reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:58:53.027918+00:00"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401869950",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "matchup": "Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869950",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.586472+00:00",
    "selection_side": "over",
    "line": 47.5,
    "home_line": 3.5,
    "pick": "Over 47.5",
    "price": -112.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 6.145833333333329,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 6.145833333333329,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.145833333333329,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286,
    "base_score": [
      23.804166666666667,
      29.841666666666665
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      23.804166666666667,
      29.841666666666665
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          23.804166666666667,
          29.841666666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 6.145833333333329,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329,
        "adverse_score": [
          20.804166666666667,
          29.841666666666665
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation",
        "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Current Old Dominion offensive capability and rushing tempo diverge materially from the prior-year foundation",
        "detail": "This is an event-specific offensive-transition mechanism, not ordinary model disagreement. The official notes document Colton Joseph leaving for Wisconsin, a new offensive coordinator, Henicle returning from an injury absence, and 61 rushes for 207 yards in a 10-point last game. Six current games average 18.1667 points versus 32.6667 last season. The frozen current-matchup home component is 21.25 versus the 29.8417 production mean. This supported downside can erase more than half the spread edge and cross the over line; independent ordinary stress defeats both. Unconfirmed Connor Drake protection status remains a separate MEDIUM risk.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true,
        "sources": [
          "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\score-freeze.json",
          "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-game-notes.json",
          "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-preview.json"
        ],
        "adverse_cases": [
          {
            "name": "Frozen current-season matchup",
            "score": [
              26.083333333333336,
              21.25
            ],
            "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357,
            "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336,
            "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
            "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
            "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
          },
          {
            "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed",
            "score": [
              23.804166666666667,
              21.25
            ],
            "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329,
            "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667,
            "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333,
            "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333,
            "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
          }
        ],
        "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections 3, 5 and 7: current context, supported invalidation and adverse-case tests."
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Unresolved HIGH: supported current offensive capability and tempo adverse case fails the selected market."
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 3.1458333333333286,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          23.804166666666667,
          29.841666666666665
        ],
        "buffer": 6.145833333333329,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329,
        "adverse_score": [
          20.804166666666667,
          29.841666666666665
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286
      },
      "scenario_count": 1,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            23.804166666666667,
            29.841666666666665
          ],
          "buffer": 6.145833333333329,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.804166666666667,
            29.841666666666665
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": [
          24.0625,
          28.083333333333332
        ],
        "buffer": 4.645833333333329,
        "stressed_buffer": 1.6458333333333286,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": [
          19.980111458616914,
          31.279278722644904
        ],
        "buffer": 3.7593901812618213,
        "stressed_buffer": 0.7593901812618213,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      }
    ],
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        23.804166666666667,
        29.841666666666665
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        23.804166666666667,
        29.841666666666665
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 53.64583333333333,
      "under_selection_total": 53.64583333333333
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier.",
    "prior_numerical_decision": "CANDIDATE_ELIGIBLE",
    "mechanism_adverse_cases": [
      {
        "name": "Frozen current-season matchup",
        "score": [
          26.083333333333336,
          21.25
        ],
        "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357,
        "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336,
        "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
      },
      {
        "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed",
        "score": [
          23.804166666666667,
          21.25
        ],
        "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329,
        "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667,
        "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333,
        "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333,
        "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
      }
    ],
    "policy_reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:58:53.027918+00:00"
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings · 7:30 PM ET

Away: Philadelphia Flyers · Home: Detroit Red Wings · Little Caesars Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Detroit Red Wings Home margin 0.35 Total 5.87	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.15 Total: LEAN Difference 0.37	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Detroit Red Wings Home margin 0.17 Total 5.78	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.33 Total: LEAN Difference 0.28	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Philadelphia Flyers Home margin -0.10 Total 5.93	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.60 Total: LEAN Difference 0.43	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Philadelphia Flyers Home margin -0.10 Total 5.93	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.60 Total: LEAN Difference 0.43	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+120 / -142	+1.5 (-225) / -1.5 (+185)	5.50 — O -120 / U +100	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

PHI: Konecny/Barkey unavailable; new York Out and Ristolainen IR require conditional defensive/PP branches. Current replacements unconfirmed. DET: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 8 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Little Caesars Arena; listed 2026-10-15T23:30Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks · 7:30 PM ET

Away: Toronto Raptors · Home: New York Knicks · Madison Square Garden. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	111.0 / 115.5 Adjusted 111.0 / 115.5	New York Knicks Home margin 4.75 Total 226.51	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.75 Total: LEAN Difference 1.01	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 4/7; 95% Wilson 25.0–84.2%; Oct14, stage 1; skips 0
Primary	108.5 / 114.0 Adjusted 108.5 / 114.0	New York Knicks Home margin 5.60 Total 222.76	Spread: LEAN Buffer 0.10 Total: LEAN Difference -2.74	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 5/7; 95% Wilson 35.9–91.8%; Oct14, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	112.5 / 114.0 Adjusted 112.5 / 114.0	New York Knicks Home margin 1.75 Total 226.51	Spread: LEAN Buffer -3.75 Total: LEAN Difference 1.01	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 6/7; 95% Wilson 48.7–97.4%; Oct14, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	112.5 / 114.0 Adjusted 112.5 / 114.0	New York Knicks Home margin 1.75 Total 226.51	Spread: LEAN Buffer -3.75 Total: LEAN Difference 1.01	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 6/7; 95% Wilson 48.7–97.4%; Oct14, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+180 / -218	+5.5 (-105) / -5.5 (-115)	225.50 — O -110 / U -110	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.594868+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

New York Knicks: Latest October 13 reserve-heavy reference excludes Brunson/Towns/Anunoby/Bridges/Hart; league-hosted news says presumed rest and possible Thursday return. Earlier actual roles retained, not permanent absences. Toronto Raptors: Leonard/Barrett/Barnes/Poeltl/Quickley most recent starting lineup. Bittle DTD; Jemison October 14, Hepburn October 12, Andre Jackson October 5 waived, excluded from opportunities.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2793 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Madison Square Garden; listed 2026-10-15T23:30Z. Official home-team schedule matches Oct 15 vs TOR 7:30 pm ET Madison Square Garden Preseason. No automatic activation from preseason games.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NCAAF · Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats · 8:00 PM ET

Away: Colorado State Rams · Home: Texas State Bobcats · UFCU Stadium. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	28.5 / 35.5 Adjusted 28.5 / 35.5	Texas State Bobcats Home margin 7.00 Total 64.36	Spread: LEAN Buffer -7.50 Total: LEAN Difference -6.14	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	24.0 / 40.5 Adjusted 24.0 / 40.5	Texas State Bobcats Home margin 16.16 Total 64.42	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.66 Total: LEAN Difference -6.08	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	28.0 / 38.5 Adjusted 28.0 / 38.5	Texas State Bobcats Home margin 10.79 Total 66.50	Spread: LEAN Buffer -3.71 Total: LEAN Difference -4.00	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	28.0 / 38.5 Adjusted 28.0 / 38.5	Texas State Bobcats Home margin 10.79 Total 66.50	Spread: LEAN Buffer -3.71 Total: LEAN Difference -4.00	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+440 / -600	+14.5 (-112) / -14.5 (-108)	70.50 — O -110 / U -110	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Colorado State Rams: Hauss Hejny Coach-reported QUESTIONABLE/partialpractice Oct12; official notes confirm priorhamstring; Hejny had four TCU games with no pass attempts in 2024, one Oklahoma State start with ten attempts in 2025, and three current starts with 47 completions in 73 attempts for 619 yards, ten touchdowns and one interception. Farrar current totals are 63 of 103 for 649 yards in four games and two starts. His 2025 UConn row is 11 of 18 for 84 yards; official biography games and vendor games differ and remain source-labeled. Partial practice is not full clearance. Apply minus three only if meaningful replacement workload continues.; RJ Vick Coach-reported probablydoubtful Oct12; finalofficialstatus unresolved; Vick leads the current receivers with 24 catches for 367 yards and four touchdowns in five games. His 2024 Virginia Union Division II season produced 48 catches for 1,164 yards; official bios disagree on touchdowns (10 versus 12), so that field remains disputed. Wake Forest verifies four appearances and 14 snaps in 2025. Moore has three current catches for 16 yards. His official Iowa Western seasons are now retained separately: 2024 nine games, 21 catches, 302 yards, three touchdowns; 2025 thirteen games, 30 catches, 629 yards, twelve touchdowns. No college-level conversion or exact future target allocation is invented. Texas State Bobcats: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded ±10 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3–70. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded ±10 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3–70. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.

Gideon Marsh

Registered baselines are unchanged. Isolated minus-three scenarios and joint overlap are explicit; Conservative ON/OFF use identical scoring arithmetic. Unestimated defensive pathways retain the relevant risk gate.

ConstitutionOwl

UFCU Stadium; listed 2026-10-16T00:00Z. Official NCAA complete weekly feed and host preview corroborate matchup, venue and kickoff. Personnel branches retained in football ledger.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:50.539939+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-15T04:33:08+00:00; periods: number: 20; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 85; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 51; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: ESE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 82; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 56; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: ESE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 78; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 67; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: ESE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T23:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 76; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 71; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401860923",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "matchup": "Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860923",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.446046+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00",
    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": 14.5,
    "home_line": -14.5,
    "pick": "Colorado State Rams +14.5",
    "price": -112.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 3.715,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": -2.285,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -2.285,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -5.285,
    "base_score": [
      27.857499999999998,
      38.6425
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      27.857499999999998,
      38.6425
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          27.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "buffer": 3.715,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.715,
        "adverse_score": [
          27.857499999999998,
          41.6425
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 0.7149999999999999
      },
      {
        "branch": "RJ Vick — shared-opportunity overlap",
        "score": [
          24.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "buffer": 0.7149999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.7149999999999999,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.857499999999998,
          41.6425
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -2.285
      },
      {
        "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick — distinct workload adverse endpoint",
        "score": [
          21.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "buffer": -2.285,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.857499999999998,
          41.6425
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -5.285
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved",
        "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -5.285,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick — distinct workload adverse endpoint",
        "score": [
          21.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "buffer": -2.285,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.857499999999998,
          41.6425
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -5.285
      },
      "scenario_count": 3,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            27.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "buffer": 3.715,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.715,
          "adverse_score": [
            27.857499999999998,
            41.6425
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.7149999999999999
        },
        {
          "branch": "RJ Vick — shared-opportunity overlap",
          "score": [
            24.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "buffer": 0.7149999999999999,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.7149999999999999,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.857499999999998,
            41.6425
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -2.285
        },
        {
          "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick — distinct workload adverse endpoint",
          "score": [
            21.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "buffer": -2.285,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.857499999999998,
            41.6425
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -5.285
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": [
          28.68181818181818,
          35.68181818181818
        ],
        "buffer": 7.5,
        "stressed_buffer": 4.5,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": [
          24.127433551194976,
          40.290731492536125
        ],
        "buffer": -1.663297941341149,
        "stressed_buffer": -4.663297941341149,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      }
    ],
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        21.857499999999998,
        38.6425
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        27.857499999999998,
        38.6425
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 60.5,
      "under_selection_total": 66.5
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401860923",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "matchup": "Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860923",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.446046+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00",
    "selection_side": "under",
    "line": 70.5,
    "home_line": -14.5,
    "pick": "Under 70.5",
    "price": -110.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 4.0,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 4.0,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.0,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_score": [
      27.857499999999998,
      38.6425
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      27.857499999999998,
      38.6425
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          27.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "buffer": 4.0,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0,
        "adverse_score": [
          30.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.0
      },
      {
        "branch": "RJ Vick — shared-opportunity overlap",
        "score": [
          24.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "buffer": 7.0,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.0,
        "adverse_score": [
          27.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 4.0
      },
      {
        "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick — distinct workload adverse endpoint",
        "score": [
          21.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "buffer": 10.0,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.0,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved",
        "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 1.0,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          27.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "buffer": 4.0,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0,
        "adverse_score": [
          30.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.0
      },
      "scenario_count": 3,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            27.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "buffer": 4.0,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0,
          "adverse_score": [
            30.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.0
        },
        {
          "branch": "RJ Vick — shared-opportunity overlap",
          "score": [
            24.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "buffer": 7.0,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.0,
          "adverse_score": [
            27.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.0
        },
        {
          "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick — distinct workload adverse endpoint",
          "score": [
            21.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "buffer": 10.0,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.0,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.0
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": [
          28.68181818181818,
          35.68181818181818
        ],
        "buffer": 6.13636363636364,
        "stressed_buffer": 3.1363636363636402,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": [
          24.127433551194976,
          40.290731492536125
        ],
        "buffer": 6.081834956268892,
        "stressed_buffer": 3.0818349562688923,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      }
    ],
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        21.857499999999998,
        38.6425
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        27.857499999999998,
        38.6425
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 60.5,
      "under_selection_total": 66.5
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401860923",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "matchup": "Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860923",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.446046+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00",
    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": 14.5,
    "home_line": -14.5,
    "pick": "Colorado State Rams +14.5",
    "price": -112.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 3.715,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": -2.285,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -2.285,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -5.285,
    "base_score": [
      27.857499999999998,
      38.6425
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      27.857499999999998,
      38.6425
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          27.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "buffer": 3.715,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.715,
        "adverse_score": [
          27.857499999999998,
          41.6425
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 0.7149999999999999
      },
      {
        "branch": "RJ Vick — shared-opportunity overlap",
        "score": [
          24.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "buffer": 0.7149999999999999,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.7149999999999999,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.857499999999998,
          41.6425
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -2.285
      },
      {
        "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick — distinct workload adverse endpoint",
        "score": [
          21.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "buffer": -2.285,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.857499999999998,
          41.6425
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -5.285
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved",
        "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -5.285,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick — distinct workload adverse endpoint",
        "score": [
          21.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "buffer": -2.285,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.857499999999998,
          41.6425
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -5.285
      },
      "scenario_count": 3,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            27.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "buffer": 3.715,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.715,
          "adverse_score": [
            27.857499999999998,
            41.6425
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.7149999999999999
        },
        {
          "branch": "RJ Vick — shared-opportunity overlap",
          "score": [
            24.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "buffer": 0.7149999999999999,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.7149999999999999,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.857499999999998,
            41.6425
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -2.285
        },
        {
          "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick — distinct workload adverse endpoint",
          "score": [
            21.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "buffer": -2.285,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.857499999999998,
            41.6425
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -5.285
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": [
          28.68181818181818,
          35.68181818181818
        ],
        "buffer": 7.5,
        "stressed_buffer": 4.5,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": [
          24.127433551194976,
          40.290731492536125
        ],
        "buffer": -1.663297941341149,
        "stressed_buffer": -4.663297941341149,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      }
    ],
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        21.857499999999998,
        38.6425
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        27.857499999999998,
        38.6425
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 60.5,
      "under_selection_total": 66.5
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401860923",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "matchup": "Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860923",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.446046+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00",
    "selection_side": "under",
    "line": 70.5,
    "home_line": -14.5,
    "pick": "Under 70.5",
    "price": -110.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 4.0,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 4.0,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.0,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_score": [
      27.857499999999998,
      38.6425
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      27.857499999999998,
      38.6425
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          27.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "buffer": 4.0,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0,
        "adverse_score": [
          30.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.0
      },
      {
        "branch": "RJ Vick — shared-opportunity overlap",
        "score": [
          24.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "buffer": 7.0,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.0,
        "adverse_score": [
          27.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 4.0
      },
      {
        "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick — distinct workload adverse endpoint",
        "score": [
          21.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "buffer": 10.0,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.0,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved",
        "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 1.0,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          27.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "buffer": 4.0,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0,
        "adverse_score": [
          30.857499999999998,
          38.6425
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.0
      },
      "scenario_count": 3,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            27.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "buffer": 4.0,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0,
          "adverse_score": [
            30.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.0
        },
        {
          "branch": "RJ Vick — shared-opportunity overlap",
          "score": [
            24.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "buffer": 7.0,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.0,
          "adverse_score": [
            27.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.0
        },
        {
          "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick — distinct workload adverse endpoint",
          "score": [
            21.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "buffer": 10.0,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.0,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.857499999999998,
            38.6425
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.0
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": [
          28.68181818181818,
          35.68181818181818
        ],
        "buffer": 6.13636363636364,
        "stressed_buffer": 3.1363636363636402,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": [
          24.127433551194976,
          40.290731492536125
        ],
        "buffer": 6.081834956268892,
        "stressed_buffer": 3.0818349562688923,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      }
    ],
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        21.857499999999998,
        38.6425
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        27.857499999999998,
        38.6425
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 60.5,
      "under_selection_total": 66.5
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

Classic

Conditional joint 28.5 / 35.5

Hauss Hejny: Coach-reported QUESTIONABLE/partialpractice Oct12; official notes confirm priorhamstring; isolated 25.5 / 35.5; other team production 25.5 / 35.5
RJ Vick: Coach-reported probablydoubtful Oct12; finalofficialstatus unresolved; isolated 25.5 / 35.5; other team production 25.5 / 35.5

Primary

Conditional joint 24.0 / 40.5

Hauss Hejny: Coach-reported QUESTIONABLE/partialpractice Oct12; official notes confirm priorhamstring; isolated 21.0 / 40.5; other team production 21.0 / 40.5
RJ Vick: Coach-reported probablydoubtful Oct12; finalofficialstatus unresolved; isolated 21.0 / 40.5; other team production 21.0 / 40.5

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 28.0 / 38.5

Hauss Hejny: Coach-reported QUESTIONABLE/partialpractice Oct12; official notes confirm priorhamstring; isolated 25.0 / 38.5; other team production 25.0 / 38.5
RJ Vick: Coach-reported probablydoubtful Oct12; finalofficialstatus unresolved; isolated 25.0 / 38.5; other team production 25.0 / 38.5

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 28.0 / 38.5

Hauss Hejny: Coach-reported QUESTIONABLE/partialpractice Oct12; official notes confirm priorhamstring; isolated 25.0 / 38.5; other team production 25.0 / 38.5
RJ Vick: Coach-reported probablydoubtful Oct12; finalofficialstatus unresolved; isolated 25.0 / 38.5; other team production 25.0 / 38.5

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks · 8:00 PM ET

Away: Winnipeg Jets · Home: Chicago Blackhawks · United Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Winnipeg Jets Home margin -0.19 Total 6.03	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.31 Total: LEAN Difference -0.47	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Winnipeg Jets Home margin -0.43 Total 5.94	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.07 Total: LEAN Difference -0.56	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Winnipeg Jets Home margin -0.20 Total 5.88	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.30 Total: LEAN Difference -0.62	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Winnipeg Jets Home margin -0.20 Total 5.88	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.30 Total: LEAN Difference -0.62	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-135 / +114	-1.5 (+190) / +1.5 (-230)	6.50 — O +110 / U -130	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.667990+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

WPG: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. CHI: Bedard returned October 13, actual return role retained; Mangiapane remains absent.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

United Center; listed 2026-10-16T00:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · San Jose Sharks at Nashville Predators · 8:00 PM ET

Away: San Jose Sharks · Home: Nashville Predators · Bridgestone Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Nashville Predators Home margin 0.37 Total 6.39	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.13 Total: LEAN Difference -0.11	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Nashville Predators Home margin 0.46 Total 6.43	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.04 Total: LEAN Difference -0.07	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Nashville Predators Home margin 0.10 Total 6.39	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.40 Total: LEAN Difference -0.11	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Nashville Predators Home margin 0.10 Total 6.39	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.40 Total: LEAN Difference -0.11	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+124 / -148	+1.5 (-218) / -1.5 (+180)	6.50 — O +102 / U -122	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.801632+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

SJS: Nurse fresh DTD; conditional defense share. Prior official preview duplicates Chernyshov: actual box identities used, malformed projection not copied. NSH: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Bridgestone Arena; listed 2026-10-16T00:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild · 8:00 PM ET

Away: St. Louis Blues · Home: Minnesota Wild · Grand Casino Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Minnesota Wild Home margin 0.51 Total 6.04	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.99 Total: LEAN Difference 0.54	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Minnesota Wild Home margin 0.38 Total 6.12	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.12 Total: LEAN Difference 0.62	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Minnesota Wild Home margin 0.35 Total 6.02	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.15 Total: LEAN Difference 0.52	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Minnesota Wild Home margin 0.35 Total 6.02	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.15 Total: LEAN Difference 0.52	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+124 / -148	+1.5 (-218) / -1.5 (+180)	5.50 — O -135 / U +114	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.813501+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

STL: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. MIN: Sturm and Marcus Foligno IR confirmed by league; Kirkland recalled but did not play latest. Spurgeon new DTD conditional defense/PP branch.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Grand Casino Arena; listed 2026-10-16T00:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers · 8:00 PM ET

Away: Milwaukee Brewers · Home: Los Angeles Dodgers · Dodger Stadium. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 3.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	4.5 / 4.5 Adjusted 4.5 / 4.5	Los Angeles Dodgers Home margin 0.15 Total 8.85	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.35 Total: LEAN Difference 1.35	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/1; 95% Wilson 0.0–79.3%; Oct14, stage 3; skips 0
Primary	3.5 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.5	Milwaukee Brewers Home margin -0.19 Total 7.28	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.69 Total: NO_EDGE Difference -0.22	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct14, stage 3; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	4.5 / 4.5 Adjusted 4.5 / 4.5	Milwaukee Brewers Home margin -0.04 Total 8.80	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.54 Total: NO_EDGE Difference 1.30	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct14, stage 3; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	4.5 / 4.5 Adjusted 4.5 / 4.5	Milwaukee Brewers Home margin -0.04 Total 8.80	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.54 Total: LEAN Difference 1.30	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct14, stage 3; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+133 / -161	+1.5 (-164) / -1.5 (+136)	7.50 — O -105 / U -115	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.840262+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Milwaukee Brewers: October 15 final lineup and Milwaukee starter unannounced. Lastactual Vaughn DH/Lara RF vs Snell reference; Yelich/Frelick alternatives vs Glasnow, not confirmedinjury replacements. Both left- and right-handed starter scenarios now use an actual recent starting nine, verified opposing pitcher handedness and observed postseason plate appearances by slot. A mixed bullpen scenario preserves substitution opportunities without inventing a starter or innings split. Final confirmation remains a high availability risk. Los Angeles Dodgers: Actual Ohtani DH/Freeman 1 B retained; prior lingering limitations notnewabsences. Current 3 B/2 B choice depends on unnamed Milwaukee starter, final order pending. Both left- and right-handed starter scenarios now use an actual recent starting nine, verified opposing pitcher handedness and observed postseason plate appearances by slot. A mixed bullpen scenario preserves substitution opportunities without inventing a starter or innings split. Final confirmation remains a high availability risk.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current; home: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current. Primary uses 4951 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Full 2026 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean; no pitcher, park or lineup coefficient. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. Current batting-slot opportunity and bench branches are retained in the official reference-box ledger; unannounced lineups remain conditional.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Dodger Stadium; listed 2026-10-16T00:00Z. Official MLB matchup, time and postseason stage agree. Probable pitchers and batting opportunities reviewed separately.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:49.382487+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T19:52:28+00:00; periods: number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T17:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T18:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 86; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: -2.2222222222222223; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 12; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: NNE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T18:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 89; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 0; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 13; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: NNE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 85; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: -0.5555555555555556; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 14; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: NNE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 24; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 83; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: -0.5555555555555556; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 15; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: NNE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.3483217592592602,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.34832175925926023,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 1,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 1,
    "risk_ids": [
      "nlcs-unannounced-starter",
      "replacement-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -164.0,
    "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.",
    "stressed_home_margin": 1.1516782407407398,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.",
      "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.",
      "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.346161265432098,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.346161265432098,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 1,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "nlcs-unannounced-starter",
      "replacement-reference-conversion",
      "mlb-model-disagreement"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 7.5,
    "price": -105.0,
    "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.",
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.846161265432098,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.",
      "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.",
      "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero.",
      "Three registered engines disagree on score levels before price capture. Expected totals: Classic 8.846161, Primary 7.281819, Tighten Up ON 8.799383, Tighten Up OFF 8.799383. Signed home margins: Classic 0.151678, Primary -0.187615, Tighten Up ON -0.040123, Tighten Up OFF -0.040123. ON/OFF share arithmetic, not independent votes. Preserve each frozen score; no averaging into another model. Apply market-specific opposition rule below after capture."
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.6876145263361688,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.6876145263361688,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 1,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 1,
    "risk_ids": [
      "nlcs-unannounced-starter",
      "replacement-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -164.0,
    "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.",
    "stressed_home_margin": 0.8123854736638312,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.",
      "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.",
      "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 0.21818119922312285,
    "base_floor_met": false,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": -0.7818188007768772,
    "same_side_after_one_run": false,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": false,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": false,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 1,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "nlcs-unannounced-starter",
      "replacement-reference-conversion",
      "mlb-model-disagreement"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "NO_EDGE",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Under",
    "line": 7.5,
    "price": -115.0,
    "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks do not all pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.",
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 8.281818800776877,
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks do not all pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.",
      "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.",
      "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero.",
      "Three registered engines disagree on score levels before price capture. Expected totals: Classic 8.846161, Primary 7.281819, Tighten Up ON 8.799383, Tighten Up OFF 8.799383. Signed home margins: Classic 0.151678, Primary -0.187615, Tighten Up ON -0.040123, Tighten Up OFF -0.040123. ON/OFF share arithmetic, not independent votes. Preserve each frozen score; no averaging into another model. Apply market-specific opposition rule below after capture."
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5,
    "base_buffer": 1.5401234567901234,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.5401234567901234,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 1,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 1,
    "risk_ids": [
      "nlcs-unannounced-starter",
      "replacement-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -164.0,
    "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Conservative ON does not promote unresolved medium availability risk and does not allow Free Picks.",
    "stressed_home_margin": 0.9598765432098766,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Conservative ON does not promote unresolved medium availability risk and does not allow Free Picks.",
      "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.",
      "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5,
    "base_buffer": 1.299382716049383,
    "base_floor_met": false,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.29938271604938294,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": false,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 1,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "nlcs-unannounced-starter",
      "replacement-reference-conversion",
      "mlb-model-disagreement"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "NO_EDGE",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 7.5,
    "price": -105.0,
    "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks do not all pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Conservative ON does not promote unresolved medium availability risk and does not allow Free Picks.",
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.799382716049383,
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks do not all pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Conservative ON does not promote unresolved medium availability risk and does not allow Free Picks.",
      "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.",
      "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero.",
      "Three registered engines disagree on score levels before price capture. Expected totals: Classic 8.846161, Primary 7.281819, Tighten Up ON 8.799383, Tighten Up OFF 8.799383. Signed home margins: Classic 0.151678, Primary -0.187615, Tighten Up ON -0.040123, Tighten Up OFF -0.040123. ON/OFF share arithmetic, not independent votes. Preserve each frozen score; no averaging into another model. Apply market-specific opposition rule below after capture."
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.5401234567901234,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.5401234567901234,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 1,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 1,
    "risk_ids": [
      "nlcs-unannounced-starter",
      "replacement-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -164.0,
    "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion.",
    "stressed_home_margin": 0.9598765432098766,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion.",
      "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.",
      "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.299382716049383,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.29938271604938294,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 1,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "nlcs-unannounced-starter",
      "replacement-reference-conversion",
      "mlb-model-disagreement"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 7.5,
    "price": -105.0,
    "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion.",
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.799382716049383,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion.",
      "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.",
      "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero.",
      "Three registered engines disagree on score levels before price capture. Expected totals: Classic 8.846161, Primary 7.281819, Tighten Up ON 8.799383, Tighten Up OFF 8.799383. Signed home margins: Classic 0.151678, Primary -0.187615, Tighten Up ON -0.040123, Tighten Up OFF -0.040123. ON/OFF share arithmetic, not independent votes. Preserve each frozen score; no averaging into another model. Apply market-specific opposition rule below after capture."
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NFL · Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos · 8:15 PM ET

Away: Seattle Seahawks · Home: Denver Broncos · Empower Field at Mile High. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	23.0 / 21.0 Adjusted 20.0 / 18.0	Seattle Seahawks Home margin -2.07 Total 38.17	Spread: LEAN Buffer 0.43 Total: LEAN Difference -2.33	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Primary	22.5 / 20.5 Adjusted 19.5 / 17.5	Seattle Seahawks Home margin -2.19 Total 36.88	Spread: LEAN Buffer 0.31 Total: LEAN Difference -3.62	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ON	24.0 / 20.5 Adjusted 21.0 / 17.5	Seattle Seahawks Home margin -3.38 Total 38.70	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.88 Total: LEAN Difference -1.80	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	24.0 / 20.5 Adjusted 21.0 / 17.5	Seattle Seahawks Home margin -3.38 Total 38.70	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.88 Total: LEAN Difference -1.80	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-142 / +120	-2.5 (-112) / +2.5 (-108)	40.50 — O -112 / U -108	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.806643+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet OUT/PUP official finalOct14; Official Seattle reporting identifies Charbonnet and Price as the top two backs. Charbonnet had 135 carries for 569 yards and 42 receptions in 2024, then 184 carries for 730 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns in 2025. He has no current games while on PUP. Wilson has 73 carries for 251 yards; Holani has 26 for 77 plus 11 receptions for 76. Current team rates already include the absence; the additional human deduction is separately labeled.; Jadarian Price IR official; unavailable; Price established a lead role with 28 carries for 119 yards and seven targets in three games. The official coach update assigned the workload to Wilson and Holani after Price aggravated his chest injury. His 2024 and 2025 Notre Dame rows remain separate from NFL production. Price and Charbonnet share a replacement pool and rushing drives; their deductions are not automatically added. Denver Broncos: Pat Bryant IR October9 official; Bryant had nine catches for 133 yards and one touchdown on 12 targets in four games, compared with Franklin six targets in five games and Mims five in three. Bryant had 49 targets and 31 catches in 15 games in 2025. Humphrey was promoted when Bryant went on IR. Receiving work may move to Franklin, Mims, Humphrey, Waddle or Sutton; exact shares are unverified. Apply the material-receiver minus-three scenario, retaining a zero-deduction supporting-role sensitivity.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 17 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 17 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 557 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 37.5% prior PF/opponent PA matchup +62.5% current (offensive PPD +opponent defensive PPD)/2 times (offensive drives/game +opponent defensive drives/game)/2; home +1.5 unless neutral; no unsupported personnel/weather adjustment. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 17 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 17 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 557 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 37.5% prior PF/opponent PA matchup +62.5% current (offensive PPD +opponent defensive PPD)/2 times (offensive drives/game +opponent defensive drives/game)/2; home +1.5 unless neutral; no unsupported personnel/weather adjustment. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.

Gideon Marsh

Registered baselines are unchanged. Isolated minus-three scenarios and joint overlap are explicit; Conservative ON/OFF use identical scoring arithmetic. Unestimated defensive pathways retain the relevant risk gate.

ConstitutionOwl

Empower Field at Mile High; listed 2026-10-16T00:15Z. Official Denver source states Seattle at Denver Thursday6:15PMMT =8:15PMET. Short-week rest and altitude are context, not invented score coefficients.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:49.338554+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T18:47:28+00:00; periods: number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T18:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 51; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 1.1111111111111112; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 52; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 49; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 0.5555555555555556; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 54; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 47; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 0.5555555555555556; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 58; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: NW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 24; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 44; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 0; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 62; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: W; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 25; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T23:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 43; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 0; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 65; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: W; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872995",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "matchup": "Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872995",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.806643+00:00",
    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": -2.5,
    "home_line": 2.5,
    "pick": "Seattle Seahawks -2.5",
    "price": -112.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 0.8767100638488152,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": -5.123289936151185,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -5.123289936151185,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185,
    "base_score": [
      24.03642764406272,
      20.659717580213904
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      21.03642764406272,
      17.659717580213904
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          21.03642764406272,
          17.659717580213904
        ],
        "buffer": 0.8767100638488152,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.03642764406272,
          20.659717580213904
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848
      },
      {
        "branch": "Baseline sensitivity — shared-opportunity overlap",
        "score": [
          24.03642764406272,
          20.659717580213904
        ],
        "buffer": 0.8767100638488152,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.03642764406272,
          23.659717580213904
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848
      },
      {
        "branch": "Jadarian Price — shared-opportunity overlap",
        "score": [
          21.03642764406272,
          20.659717580213904
        ],
        "buffer": -2.1232899361511848,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.1232899361511848,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.03642764406272,
          23.659717580213904
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -5.123289936151185
      },
      {
        "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price — distinct workload adverse endpoint",
        "score": [
          18.03642764406272,
          20.659717580213904
        ],
        "buffer": -5.123289936151185,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -5.123289936151185,
        "adverse_score": [
          18.03642764406272,
          23.659717580213904
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185
      },
      {
        "branch": "Pat Bryant — shared-opportunity overlap",
        "score": [
          24.03642764406272,
          17.659717580213904
        ],
        "buffer": 3.8767100638488152,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8767100638488152,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.03642764406272,
          20.659717580213904
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 0.8767100638488152
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Denver secondary and Seattle linebacker replacement effects remain unresolved",
        "detail": "Surtain and Hufanga are out, Moss is questionable, and Tyrice Knight replaces Drake Thomas. Coverage, pressure and field-position effects could change opponent scoring, but no supported point conversion exists. Live selections remain PASS.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Seattle running-back overlap and Denver receiver materiality",
        "detail": "Test Seattle deductions of zero, three and six points and Denver deductions of zero and three points. The six-point Seattle endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads; it is not automatic injury headcount. Ordinary stress and high-risk gates still apply.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress",
        "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual availability and unestimated defensive effects are evaluated separately."
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -8.123289936151185,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price — distinct workload adverse endpoint",
        "score": [
          18.03642764406272,
          20.659717580213904
        ],
        "buffer": -5.123289936151185,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -5.123289936151185,
        "adverse_score": [
          18.03642764406272,
          23.659717580213904
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185
      },
      "scenario_count": 5,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            21.03642764406272,
            17.659717580213904
          ],
          "buffer": 0.8767100638488152,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.03642764406272,
            20.659717580213904
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848
        },
        {
          "branch": "Baseline sensitivity — shared-opportunity overlap",
          "score": [
            24.03642764406272,
            20.659717580213904
          ],
          "buffer": 0.8767100638488152,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.03642764406272,
            23.659717580213904
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848
        },
        {
          "branch": "Jadarian Price — shared-opportunity overlap",
          "score": [
            21.03642764406272,
            20.659717580213904
          ],
          "buffer": -2.1232899361511848,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.1232899361511848,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.03642764406272,
            23.659717580213904
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -5.123289936151185
        },
        {
          "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price — distinct workload adverse endpoint",
          "score": [
            18.03642764406272,
            20.659717580213904
          ],
          "buffer": -5.123289936151185,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -5.123289936151185,
          "adverse_score": [
            18.03642764406272,
            23.659717580213904
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185
        },
        {
          "branch": "Pat Bryant — shared-opportunity overlap",
          "score": [
            24.03642764406272,
            17.659717580213904
          ],
          "buffer": 3.8767100638488152,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8767100638488152,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.03642764406272,
            20.659717580213904
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.8767100638488152
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": [
          20.12433155080214,
          18.04946524064171
        ],
        "buffer": -0.42513368983956923,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.4251336898395692,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": [
          19.535062249919697,
          17.344386807922806
        ],
        "buffer": -0.30932455800310876,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.3093245580031088,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      }
    ],
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        18.03642764406272,
        20.659717580213904
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        24.03642764406272,
        17.659717580213904
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 35.69614522427662,
      "under_selection_total": 44.69614522427662
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872995",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "matchup": "Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872995",
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      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
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      "scenario_count": 6,
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      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
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      {
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    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
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    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

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          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress",
        "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual availability and unestimated defensive effects are evaluated separately."
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -7.19614522427662,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "Baseline sensitivity — shared-opportunity overlap",
        "score": [
          24.03642764406272,
          20.659717580213904
        ],
        "buffer": -4.19614522427662,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.19614522427662,
        "adverse_score": [
          27.03642764406272,
          20.659717580213904
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -7.19614522427662
      },
      "scenario_count": 6,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            21.03642764406272,
            17.659717580213904
          ],
          "buffer": 1.80385477572338,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.80385477572338,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.03642764406272,
            17.659717580213904
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.19614522427662
        },
        {
          "branch": "Baseline sensitivity — shared-opportunity overlap",
          "score": [
            24.03642764406272,
            20.659717580213904
          ],
          "buffer": -4.19614522427662,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.19614522427662,
          "adverse_score": [
            27.03642764406272,
            20.659717580213904
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -7.19614522427662
        },
        {
          "branch": "Jadarian Price — shared-opportunity overlap",
          "score": [
            21.03642764406272,
            20.659717580213904
          ],
          "buffer": -1.19614522427662,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.19614522427662,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.03642764406272,
            20.659717580213904
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -4.19614522427662
        },
        {
          "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price — distinct workload adverse endpoint",
          "score": [
            18.03642764406272,
            20.659717580213904
          ],
          "buffer": 1.80385477572338,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.80385477572338,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.03642764406272,
            20.659717580213904
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.19614522427662
        },
        {
          "branch": "Pat Bryant — shared-opportunity overlap",
          "score": [
            24.03642764406272,
            17.659717580213904
          ],
          "buffer": -1.19614522427662,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.19614522427662,
          "adverse_score": [
            27.03642764406272,
            17.659717580213904
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -4.19614522427662
        },
        {
          "branch": "Frozen total bound over_selection_total",
          "score": [
            18.036427644062716,
            17.659717580213904
          ],
          "buffer": 4.80385477572338,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.80385477572338,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.036427644062716,
            17.659717580213904
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.80385477572338
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "frozen_model_checks": [
      {
        "model": "Classic",
        "score": [
          20.12433155080214,
          18.04946524064171
        ],
        "buffer": 2.3262032085561515,
        "stressed_buffer": -0.6737967914438485,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "model": "Primary",
        "score": [
          19.535062249919697,
          17.344386807922806
        ],
        "buffer": 3.620550942157493,
        "stressed_buffer": 0.6205509421574931,
        "derived_from_frozen_values": true
      }
    ],
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        18.03642764406272,
        20.659717580213904
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        24.03642764406272,
        17.659717580213904
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 35.69614522427662,
      "under_selection_total": 44.69614522427662
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

Classic

Conditional joint 20.0 / 18.0

Zach Charbonnet: OUT/PUP official finalOct14; isolated 20.0 / 21.0; other team production 20.0 / 18.0
Jadarian Price: IR official; unavailable; isolated 20.0 / 21.0; other team production 20.0 / 18.0
Pat Bryant: IR October9 official; isolated 23.0 / 18.0; other team production 20.0 / 18.0

Primary

Conditional joint 19.5 / 17.5

Zach Charbonnet: OUT/PUP official finalOct14; isolated 19.5 / 20.5; other team production 19.5 / 17.5
Jadarian Price: IR official; unavailable; isolated 19.5 / 20.5; other team production 19.5 / 17.5
Pat Bryant: IR October9 official; isolated 22.5 / 17.5; other team production 19.5 / 17.5

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 21.0 / 17.5

Zach Charbonnet: OUT/PUP official finalOct14; isolated 21.0 / 20.5; other team production 21.0 / 17.5
Jadarian Price: IR official; unavailable; isolated 21.0 / 20.5; other team production 21.0 / 17.5
Pat Bryant: IR October9 official; isolated 24.0 / 17.5; other team production 21.0 / 17.5

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 21.0 / 17.5

Zach Charbonnet: OUT/PUP official finalOct14; isolated 21.0 / 20.5; other team production 21.0 / 17.5
Jadarian Price: IR official; unavailable; isolated 21.0 / 20.5; other team production 21.0 / 17.5
Pat Bryant: IR October9 official; isolated 24.0 / 17.5; other team production 21.0 / 17.5

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets · 8:30 PM ET

Away: Oklahoma City Thunder · Home: Houston Rockets · Toyota Center (Houston). Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	113.0 / 113.0 Adjusted 113.0 / 113.0	Houston Rockets Home margin 0.04 Total 226.07	Spread: LEAN Buffer 3.54 Total: LEAN Difference 1.57	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 4/7; 95% Wilson 25.0–84.2%; Oct14, stage 1; skips 0
Primary	112.5 / 110.0 Adjusted 112.5 / 110.0	Oklahoma City Thunder Home margin -2.54 Total 222.71	Spread: LEAN Buffer 0.96 Total: LEAN Difference -1.79	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 5/7; 95% Wilson 35.9–91.8%; Oct14, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	114.5 / 111.5 Adjusted 114.5 / 111.5	Oklahoma City Thunder Home margin -2.96 Total 226.07	Spread: LEAN Buffer 0.54 Total: LEAN Difference 1.57	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 6/7; 95% Wilson 48.7–97.4%; Oct14, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	114.5 / 111.5 Adjusted 114.5 / 111.5	Oklahoma City Thunder Home margin -2.96 Total 226.07	Spread: LEAN Buffer 0.54 Total: LEAN Difference 1.57	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 6/7; 95% Wilson 48.7–97.4%; Oct14, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-162 / +136	-3.5 (-115) / +3.5 (-105)	224.50 — O -110 / U -110	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.821454+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Houston Rockets: Capela starts latest reference for rested Sengun/Adams; Thompson/Smart/Sheppard creation. Durant/Van Vleet return conditional from earlier actual rotations. Oklahoma City Thunder: Latest SGA/Jalen Williams/Caruso/Wallace/Hartenstein first unit. SGA final tune-up undecided. Otega Oweh newly OUT after 15 minutes excluded; Holmgren/Mitchell/Sorber/Topic/Jaylin Williams conditional returns.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2793 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Toyota Center (Houston); listed 2026-10-16T00:30Z. Official home-team schedule matches Oct 15 vs OKC 8:30 pm ET Toyota Center Preseason. No automatic activation from preseason games.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Utah Mammoth at Edmonton Oilers · 9:00 PM ET

Away: Utah Mammoth · Home: Edmonton Oilers · Rogers Place. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Edmonton Oilers Home margin 0.20 Total 6.63	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.30 Total: LEAN Difference 0.13	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.5 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.5	Edmonton Oilers Home margin 0.15 Total 6.74	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.35 Total: LEAN Difference 0.24	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Utah Mammoth Home margin -0.07 Total 6.43	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.57 Total: LEAN Difference -0.07	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Utah Mammoth Home margin -0.07 Total 6.43	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.57 Total: LEAN Difference -0.07	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+110 / -130	+1.5 (-218) / -1.5 (+180)	6.50 — O -112 / U -108	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.862020+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

UTA: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. EDM: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Rogers Place; listed 2026-10-16T01:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights · 10:00 PM ET

Away: Calgary Flames · Home: Vegas Golden Knights · T-Mobile Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	2.5 / 3.5 Adjusted 2.5 / 3.5	Vegas Golden Knights Home margin 0.99 Total 6.13	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.51 Total: LEAN Difference -0.37	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	2.5 / 3.5 Adjusted 2.5 / 3.5	Vegas Golden Knights Home margin 1.06 Total 5.99	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.44 Total: LEAN Difference -0.51	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	2.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 2.5 / 3.0	Vegas Golden Knights Home margin 0.43 Total 5.91	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.07 Total: LEAN Difference -0.59	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	2.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 2.5 / 3.0	Vegas Golden Knights Home margin 0.43 Total 5.91	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.07 Total: LEAN Difference -0.59	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/2; 95% Wilson 0.0–65.8%; Oct14, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+245 / -305	+1.5 (+105) / -1.5 (-125)	6.50 — O +105 / U -125	Source 2026-10-15T05:55:47.957729+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

CGY: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. VGK: Olofsson IR, Wotherspoon week-to-week; Connelly/Lavoie and Coghlan actual workloads retained.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 8 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

T-Mobile Arena; listed 2026-10-16T02:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

Published OFF board

Scope and audit

All four forecasts

All-four agreement

Game-by-game evidence

Captured market

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Uncle Sibursam

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Polly Ticks

Liberty Belle

Warren Bullion

Classic

Primary

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Captured market

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Uncle Sibursam

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Polly Ticks

Liberty Belle

Warren Bullion

Classic

Primary

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Captured market

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Uncle Sibursam

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Polly Ticks

Liberty Belle

Warren Bullion

Classic

Primary

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Captured market

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Uncle Sibursam

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Polly Ticks

Liberty Belle

Warren Bullion

Classic

Primary

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Captured market

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Uncle Sibursam

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Polly Ticks

Liberty Belle

Warren Bullion

Classic

Primary

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Captured market

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Uncle Sibursam

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Polly Ticks

Liberty Belle

Warren Bullion

Classic