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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.15243, 3.121945 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.15243, 3.121945 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.15243, 3.121945 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.15243, 3.121945 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.15243, 3.121945 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 4.0, 5.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.504884+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.504884+00:00", "status": "Final", "official_event_id": 2026020106, "scores": [ 4, 5 ] } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.504884+00:00", "status": "Final", "official_event_id": 2026020106, "scores": [ 4, 5 ] }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401898404", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898404", "away": "Brooklyn Nets", "home": "Miami Heat", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+7.5 (-105) / -7.5 (-115)", "ml": "+250 / -310", "total": "232.5; O -105 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 112.0 / 118.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/brooklyn-nets-miami-heat-401898404-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898404", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.326436+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 110.73170731707316, 119.89024390243902 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.73170731707316, 119.89024390243902 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.73170731707316, 119.89024390243902 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 112.231705, 118.3902425 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.231705, 118.3902425 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.231705, 118.3902425 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 112.231705, 118.3902425 ], "adjustedScore": [ 112.231705, 118.3902425 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 111.585365, 113.018295 ], "adjusted_score": [ 111.585365, 113.018295 ], "conditional_score": [ 111.585365, 113.018295 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/torvsorl-10-14-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.152527+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/torvsorl-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.152527+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Toronto FC and Orlando City played to a 3-3 draw in a back-and-forth contest. Toronto's Matheus Pereira equalized in the 90th minute after Orlando's Daryl Dike had given the visitors the lead in the 83rd minute.", "scores": [ 3, 3 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/torvsorl-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.152527+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Toronto FC and Orlando City played to a 3-3 draw in a back-and-forth contest. Toronto's Matheus Pereira equalized in the 90th minute after Orlando's Daryl Dike had given the visitors the lead in the 83rd minute.", "scores": [ 3, 3 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761861", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761861", "away": "New York City FC", "home": "Inter Miami CF", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-170) / -1.5 (+125)", "ml": "+390 / -195 / draw +370", "total": "3.5; O -115 / U -110", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/new-york-city-fc-inter-miami-cf-761861-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761861", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.296412+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761861", "away": "New York City FC", "home": "Inter Miami CF", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "New York City FC 0, Inter Miami CF 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-170) / -1.5 (+125)", "ml": "+390 / -195 / draw +370", "total": "3.5; O -115 / U -110", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/new-york-city-fc-inter-miami-cf-761861-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761861", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.296412+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 0.0, 2.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/miavsnyc-10-14-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.004765+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/miavsnyc-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.004765+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Inter Miami CF defeated New York City Football Club 2-0, with Germ\u00e1n Berterame scoring in the 20th minute and Rodrigo De Paul adding a second in first-half stoppage time. Miami's Dayne St. Clair preserved the shutout with a late penalty save.", "scores": [ 0, 2 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/miavsnyc-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.004765+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Inter Miami CF defeated New York City Football Club 2-0, with Germ\u00e1n Berterame scoring in the 20th minute and Rodrigo De Paul adding a second in first-half stoppage time. Miami's Dayne St. Clair preserved the shutout with a late penalty save.", "scores": [ 0, 2 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761862", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761862", "away": "New England Revolution", "home": "FC Cincinnati", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (+110) / -0.5 (-155)", "ml": "+300 / -150 / draw +330", "total": "3.5; O -115 / U -110", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/new-england-revolution-fc-cincinnati-761862-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761862", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.477415+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761862", "away": "New England Revolution", "home": "FC Cincinnati", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "New England Revolution 3, FC Cincinnati 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (+110) / -0.5 (-155)", "ml": "+300 / -150 / draw +330", "total": "3.5; O -115 / U -110", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/new-england-revolution-fc-cincinnati-761862-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761862", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.477415+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 3.0, 2.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/cinvsne-10-14-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.163396+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/cinvsne-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.163396+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "The New England Revolution defeated FC Cincinnati 3-2 in a high-scoring affair, with Dor Turgeman netting twice for New England. Cincinnati dominated possession in the second half at 65%, but Matt Turner made 5 saves to preserve the victory.", "scores": [ 3, 2 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/cinvsne-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.163396+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "The New England Revolution defeated FC Cincinnati 3-2 in a high-scoring affair, with Dor Turgeman netting twice for New England. Cincinnati dominated possession in the second half at 65%, but Matt Turner made 5 saves to preserve the victory.", "scores": [ 3, 2 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761863", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761863", "away": "Red Bull New York", "home": "D.C. United", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-130) / -0.5 (-105)", "ml": "+215 / +100 / draw +280", "total": "3.5; O +120 / U -150", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/red-bull-new-york-d-c-united-761863-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761863", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.518840+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761863", "away": "Red Bull New York", "home": "D.C. United", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Red Bull New York 1, D.C. United 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-130) / -0.5 (-105)", "ml": "+215 / +100 / draw +280", "total": "3.5; O +120 / U -150", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/red-bull-new-york-d-c-united-761863-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761863", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.518840+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 1.0, 2.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/dcvsrbny-10-14-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.135729+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/dcvsrbny-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.135729+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "D.C. United defeated Red Bull New York 2-1, with Tai Baribo converting a 5th-minute penalty and Silvan Hefti heading in a second in first-half stoppage time. Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting pulled one back for New York in the 71st minute, but D.C. United held on despite playing with ten men after Lucas Bartlett's second-yellow red card.", "scores": [ 1, 2 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/dcvsrbny-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.135729+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "D.C. United defeated Red Bull New York 2-1, with Tai Baribo converting a 5th-minute penalty and Silvan Hefti heading in a second in first-half stoppage time. Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting pulled one back for New York in the 71st minute, but D.C. United held on despite playing with ten men after Lucas Bartlett's second-yellow red card.", "scores": [ 1, 2 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761864", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761864", "away": "Atlanta United FC", "home": "CF Montr\u00e9al", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-170) / -0.5 (+120)", "ml": "+170 / +130 / draw +260", "total": "3.5; O +140 / U -175", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/atlanta-united-fc-cf-montreal-761864-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761864", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.492997+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761864", "away": "Atlanta United FC", "home": "CF Montr\u00e9al", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Atlanta United FC 3, CF Montr\u00e9al 0", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-170) / -0.5 (+120)", "ml": "+170 / +130 / draw +260", "total": "3.5; O +140 / U -175", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/atlanta-united-fc-cf-montreal-761864-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761864", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.492997+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 3.0, 0.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/mtlvsatl-10-14-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:33:13.997316+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/mtlvsatl-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:13.997316+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Atlanta United defeated CF Montr\u00e9al 3-0 in a dominant offensive performance. Miguel Almir\u00f3n and Giuliano Galoppo scored first-half goals, and Breel Embolo added a third in the 60th minute to put the match out of reach.", "scores": [ 3, 0 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/mtlvsatl-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:13.997316+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Atlanta United defeated CF Montr\u00e9al 3-0 in a dominant offensive performance. Miguel Almir\u00f3n and Giuliano Galoppo scored first-half goals, and Breel Embolo added a third in the 60th minute to put the match out of reach.", "scores": [ 3, 0 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761865", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761865", "away": "Charlotte FC", "home": "Columbus Crew", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-125) / -0.5 (-115)", "ml": "+230 / -105 / draw +285", "total": "3.5; O +110 / U -140", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/charlotte-fc-columbus-crew-761865-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761865", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.538395+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761865", "away": "Charlotte FC", "home": "Columbus Crew", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Charlotte FC 1, Columbus Crew 3", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-125) / -0.5 (-115)", "ml": "+230 / -105 / draw +285", "total": "3.5; O +110 / U -140", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/charlotte-fc-columbus-crew-761865-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761865", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.538395+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 1.0, 3.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/clbvsclt-10-14-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.222606+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/clbvsclt-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.222606+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Columbus Crew defeated Charlotte FC 3-1, rallying from a first-half deficit with three unanswered goals. Brais M\u00e9ndez equalized for Columbus before Anass Zaroury and Taha Habroune scored in quick succession in the second half.", "scores": [ 1, 3 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/clbvsclt-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.222606+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Columbus Crew defeated Charlotte FC 3-1, rallying from a first-half deficit with three unanswered goals. Brais M\u00e9ndez equalized for Columbus before Anass Zaroury and Taha Habroune scored in quick succession in the second half.", "scores": [ 1, 3 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401871068", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401871068", "away": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers", "home": "Sam Houston Bearkats", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (-115) / +1.5 (-105)", "ml": "-125 / +105", "total": "52.5; O -112 / U -108", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 30.5 / 24.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/western-kentucky-hilltoppers-sam-houston-bearkats-401871068-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871068", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.535836+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.50189393939394, 25.418560606060606 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.50189393939394, 25.418560606060606 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.50189393939394, 25.418560606060606 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 115.4994878687694, 117.34906911475937 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.4994878687694, 117.34906911475937 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.4994878687694, 117.34906911475937 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2791, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-14T02:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "1b6b0e4be5c75b2d3339eeb8a90dc1bcc1bd1c07c9848f5a382af26a0d7cea80" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 5, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.4, "wilson95": [ 0.11762077423264783, 0.769275718723987 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 13.783785881548706, "mean_margin_error": 20.17273163426777, "mean_total_error": 20.438736671915358, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.57927000000001, 137.57927 ], "home": [ 97.07317, 137.07317 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 117.57927000000001, 117.07317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.57927000000001, 117.07317 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.57927000000001, 117.07317 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.52439, "pa": 120.02439 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.12195, "pa": 119.63415 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 5, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.4, "wilson95": [ 0.11762077423264783, 0.769275718723987 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 14.101829050000001, "mean_margin_error": 19.471950099999997, "mean_total_error": 20.489024100000005, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.57927000000001, 137.57927 ], "home": [ 97.07317, 137.07317 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 117.57927000000001, 117.07317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.57927000000001, 117.07317 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.57927000000001, 117.07317 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.52439, "pa": 120.02439 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.12195, "pa": 119.63415 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 5, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.4, "wilson95": [ 0.11762077423264783, 0.769275718723987 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 14.101829050000001, "mean_margin_error": 19.471950099999997, "mean_total_error": 20.489024100000005, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.57927000000001, 137.57927 ], "home": [ 97.07317, 137.07317 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 117.57927000000001, 117.07317 ], "adjustedScore": [ 117.57927000000001, 117.07317 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401901825", "away": "New Orleans Pelicans", "home": "Dallas Mavericks", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "New Orleans Pelicans 101, Dallas Mavericks 97", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-110) / -1.5 (-110)", "ml": "-102 / -118", "total": "230.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 117.5 / 117.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/new-orleans-pelicans-dallas-mavericks-401901825-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901825", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.763404+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 116.07926829268294, 118.57317073170732 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.07926829268294, 118.57317073170732 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.07926829268294, 118.57317073170732 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 115.52439024390245, 120.02439024390245 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 114.1219512195122, 119.63414634146342 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 5, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.8, "wilson95": [ 0.37553462976252533, 0.9637758913675698 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 13.839634146341462, "mean_margin_error": 19.47195121951219, "mean_total_error": 20.4890243902439, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.57927000000001, 137.57927 ], "home": [ 97.07317, 137.07317 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 115.4994878687694, 117.34906911475937 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.4994878687694, 117.34906911475937 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.4994878687694, 117.34906911475937 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2791, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-14T02:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "1b6b0e4be5c75b2d3339eeb8a90dc1bcc1bd1c07c9848f5a382af26a0d7cea80" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 5, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.4, "wilson95": [ 0.11762077423264783, 0.769275718723987 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 13.783785881548706, "mean_margin_error": 20.17273163426777, "mean_total_error": 20.438736671915358, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.57927000000001, 137.57927 ], "home": [ 97.07317, 137.07317 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 117.57927000000001, 117.07317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.57927000000001, 117.07317 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.57927000000001, 117.07317 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.52439, "pa": 120.02439 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.12195, "pa": 119.63415 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 5, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.4, "wilson95": [ 0.11762077423264783, 0.769275718723987 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 14.101829050000001, "mean_margin_error": 19.471950099999997, "mean_total_error": 20.489024100000005, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.57927000000001, 137.57927 ], "home": [ 97.07317, 137.07317 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 117.57927000000001, 117.07317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.57927000000001, 117.07317 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.57927000000001, 117.07317 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.52439, "pa": 120.02439 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.12195, "pa": 119.63415 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 5, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.4, "wilson95": [ 0.11762077423264783, 0.769275718723987 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 14.101829050000001, "mean_margin_error": 19.471950099999997, "mean_total_error": 20.489024100000005, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.57927000000001, 137.57927 ], "home": [ 97.07317, 137.07317 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 117.57927000000001, 117.07317 ], "adjustedScore": [ 117.57927000000001, 117.07317 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 101.0, 97.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612742/schedule", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:32:47.712843+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612742/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:47.712843+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Oct 14 vs NOP L 101 - 97", "scores": [ 101, 97 ], "stage": "Preseason" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612742/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:47.712843+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Oct 14 vs NOP L 101 - 97", "scores": [ 101, 97 ], "stage": "Preseason" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401908032", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "MLB", "competition": "MLB", "eventId": "401908032", "away": "Milwaukee Brewers", "home": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "Milwaukee +1.5 (-150)", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Free Pick", "tier": "Free Pick", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-150) / -1.5 (+124)", "ml": "+148 / -180", "total": "7.5; O -106 / U -114", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 4.5 / 4.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/milwaukee-brewers-los-angeles-dodgers-401908032-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401908032", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.729210+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 4.347241512345679, 4.498919753086419 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.347241512345679, 4.498919753086419 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.347241512345679, 4.498919753086419 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 4.9753086419753085, 3.9135802469135803 ], "current_rates": [ 5.135802469135802, 3.814814814814815 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 5.092592592592593, 4.216049382716049 ], "current_rates": [ 4.944444444444445, 3.7037037037037037 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.2043788580246906, "mean_margin_error": 1.5868441358024694, "mean_total_error": 4.408757716049381, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "home": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.692957291874722, 3.561411963565656 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.692957291874722, 3.561411963565656 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.692957291874722, 3.561411963565656 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4952, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "ae0cd5a7ee772516d75e17b62f975f962207003efe863d21fabc2c9502b6a962" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4612177086535592, "mean_margin_error": 1.635448464239897, "mean_total_error": 2.9224354173071188, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "home": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 5.135802469135802, "pa": 3.814814814814815, "runs_for": 832, "runs_against": 618, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-14-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.944444444444445, "pa": 3.7037037037037037, "runs_for": 801, "runs_against": 600, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-14-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.2145061728395063, "mean_margin_error": 1.768518518518519, "mean_total_error": 4.429012345679013, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "home": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 5.135802469135802, "pa": 3.814814814814815, "runs_for": 832, "runs_against": 618, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-14-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.944444444444445, "pa": 3.7037037037037037, "runs_for": 801, "runs_against": 600, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-14-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.2145061728395063, "mean_margin_error": 1.768518518518519, "mean_total_error": 4.429012345679013, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "home": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "adjustedScore": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "selectedMarketKind": "spread", "odds": -150, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "MLB", "competition": "MLB", "eventId": "401908032", "away": "Milwaukee Brewers", "home": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "Milwaukee +1.5 (-150)", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Free Pick", "tier": "Free Pick", "status": "win", "final": "Milwaukee Brewers 6, Los Angeles Dodgers 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-150) / -1.5 (+124)", "ml": "+148 / -180", "total": "7.5; O -106 / U -114", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 4.5 / 4.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/milwaukee-brewers-los-angeles-dodgers-401908032-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401908032", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.729210+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 4.347241512345679, 4.498919753086419 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.347241512345679, 4.498919753086419 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.347241512345679, 4.498919753086419 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 4.9753086419753085, 3.9135802469135803 ], "current_rates": [ 5.135802469135802, 3.814814814814815 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 5.092592592592593, 4.216049382716049 ], "current_rates": [ 4.944444444444445, 3.7037037037037037 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.2043788580246906, "mean_margin_error": 1.5868441358024694, "mean_total_error": 4.408757716049381, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "home": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.692957291874722, 3.561411963565656 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.692957291874722, 3.561411963565656 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.692957291874722, 3.561411963565656 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4952, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "ae0cd5a7ee772516d75e17b62f975f962207003efe863d21fabc2c9502b6a962" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4612177086535592, "mean_margin_error": 1.635448464239897, "mean_total_error": 2.9224354173071188, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "home": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 5.135802469135802, "pa": 3.814814814814815, "runs_for": 832, "runs_against": 618, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-14-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.944444444444445, "pa": 3.7037037037037037, "runs_for": 801, "runs_against": 600, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-14-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.2145061728395063, "mean_margin_error": 1.768518518518519, "mean_total_error": 4.429012345679013, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "home": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 5.135802469135802, "pa": 3.814814814814815, "runs_for": 832, "runs_against": 618, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-14-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.944444444444445, "pa": 3.7037037037037037, "runs_for": 801, "runs_against": 600, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-14-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.2145061728395063, "mean_margin_error": 1.768518518518519, "mean_total_error": 4.429012345679013, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "home": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "adjustedScore": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "selectedMarketKind": "spread", "odds": -150, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 6.0, 2.0 ], "wagerGrade": "WIN", "result": "WIN", "resultSource": { "url": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-14&endDate=2026-10-15", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.489098+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-14&endDate=2026-10-15", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.489098+00:00", "status": "Final", "official_event_id": 849811, "scores": [ 6, 2 ] } } }, "official": { "url": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-14&endDate=2026-10-15", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.489098+00:00", "status": "Final", "official_event_id": 849811, "scores": [ 6, 2 ] }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401908942", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401908942", "away": "Chicago Bulls", "home": "Milwaukee Bucks", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (-115) / +1.5 (-105)", "ml": "-130 / +110", "total": "231.5; O -112 / U -108", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 116.5 / 116.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/chicago-bulls-milwaukee-bucks-401908942-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908942", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.696275+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 115.07317073170732, 117.57317073170732 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.07317073170732, 117.57317073170732 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.07317073170732, 117.57317073170732 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 116.3048780487805, 121.51219512195122 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 110.63414634146342, 116.84146341463415 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 5, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.8, "wilson95": [ 0.37553462976252533, 0.9637758913675698 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 13.839634146341462, "mean_margin_error": 19.47195121951219, "mean_total_error": 20.4890243902439, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 96.57317, 136.57317 ], "home": [ 96.07317, 136.07317 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 114.67554044653612, 116.2379695756712 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.67554044653612, 116.2379695756712 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.67554044653612, 116.2379695756712 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2791, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-14T02:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "1b6b0e4be5c75b2d3339eeb8a90dc1bcc1bd1c07c9848f5a382af26a0d7cea80" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 5, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.4, "wilson95": [ 0.11762077423264783, 0.769275718723987 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 13.783785881548706, "mean_margin_error": 20.17273163426777, "mean_total_error": 20.438736671915358, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 96.57317, 136.57317 ], "home": [ 96.07317, 136.07317 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 116.57317, 116.07317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.57317, 116.07317 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.57317, 116.07317 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.30488, "pa": 121.51219 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 110.63415, "pa": 116.84146 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 5, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.4, "wilson95": [ 0.11762077423264783, 0.769275718723987 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 14.101829050000001, "mean_margin_error": 19.471950099999997, "mean_total_error": 20.489024100000005, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 96.57317, 136.57317 ], "home": [ 96.07317, 136.07317 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 116.57317, 116.07317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.57317, 116.07317 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.57317, 116.07317 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.30488, "pa": 121.51219 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 110.63415, "pa": 116.84146 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 5, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.4, "wilson95": [ 0.11762077423264783, 0.769275718723987 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 14.101829050000001, "mean_margin_error": 19.471950099999997, "mean_total_error": 20.489024100000005, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 96.57317, 136.57317 ], "home": [ 96.07317, 136.07317 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 116.57317, 116.07317 ], "adjustedScore": [ 116.57317, 116.07317 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401908942", "away": "Chicago Bulls", "home": "Milwaukee Bucks", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Chicago Bulls 125, Milwaukee Bucks 104", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (-115) / +1.5 (-105)", "ml": "-130 / +110", "total": "231.5; O -112 / U -108", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 116.5 / 116.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/chicago-bulls-milwaukee-bucks-401908942-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908942", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.696275+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 115.07317073170732, 117.57317073170732 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.07317073170732, 117.57317073170732 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.07317073170732, 117.57317073170732 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 116.3048780487805, 121.51219512195122 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 110.63414634146342, 116.84146341463415 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 5, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.8, "wilson95": [ 0.37553462976252533, 0.9637758913675698 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 13.839634146341462, "mean_margin_error": 19.47195121951219, "mean_total_error": 20.4890243902439, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 96.57317, 136.57317 ], "home": [ 96.07317, 136.07317 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 114.67554044653612, 116.2379695756712 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.67554044653612, 116.2379695756712 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.67554044653612, 116.2379695756712 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 116.57317, 116.07317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.57317, 116.07317 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.57317, 116.07317 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 116.57317, 116.07317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.57317, 116.07317 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.57317, 116.07317 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 125.0, 104.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612749/schedule", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:32:47.745902+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612749/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:47.745902+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Oct 14 vs CHI L 125 - 104", "scores": [ 125, 104 ], "stage": "Preseason" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612749/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:47.745902+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Oct 14 vs CHI L 125 - 104", "scores": [ 125, 104 ], "stage": "Preseason" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401914125", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401914125", "away": "Detroit Pistons", "home": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (-102) / +1.5 (-118)", "ml": "-110 / -110", "total": "227.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 116.0 / 114.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/detroit-pistons-minnesota-timberwolves-401914125-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914125", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.713859+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 114.70731707317073, 115.3048780487805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.70731707317073, 115.3048780487805 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.70731707317073, 115.3048780487805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 116.20731749999999, 113.80488 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.20731749999999, 113.80488 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.20731749999999, 113.80488 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 112.81973505268027, 112.50755216878082 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.81973505268027, 112.50755216878082 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.81973505268027, 112.50755216878082 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 116.20731749999999, 113.80488 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.20731749999999, 113.80488 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.20731749999999, 113.80488 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 116.20731749999999, 113.80488 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.20731749999999, 113.80488 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.20731749999999, 113.80488 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 116.20731749999999, 113.80488 ], "adjustedScore": [ 116.20731749999999, 113.80488 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 128.0, 106.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612750/schedule", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:32:47.796188+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612750/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:47.796188+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Oct 14 vs DET L 128 - 106", "scores": [ 128, 106 ], "stage": "Preseason" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612750/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:47.796188+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Oct 14 vs DET L 128 - 106", "scores": [ 128, 106 ], "stage": "Preseason" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892505", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892505", "away": "Dallas Stars", "home": "Colorado Avalanche", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-198) / -1.5 (+164)", "ml": "+124 / -148", "total": "5.5; O -135 / U +114", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/dallas-stars-colorado-avalanche-401892505-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892505", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.721859+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.7761726078799245, 3.34577861163227 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7761726078799245, 3.34577861163227 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7761726078799245, 3.34577861163227 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.402439024390244, 2.7560975609756095 ], "current_rates": [ 2.1666666666666665, 1.8333333333333333 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.682926829268293, 2.475609756097561 ], "current_rates": [ 4.833333333333333, 3.1666666666666665 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 16, "hits": 9, "accuracy": 0.5625, "wilson95": [ 0.331785563988119, 0.7690134759450765 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3038850887707596, "mean_margin_error": 2.2448142502258355, "mean_total_error": 1.6145999669932598, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8658450000000002, 4.865845 ], "home": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.7889047342661053, 3.354331523996396 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7889047342661053, 3.354331523996396 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7889047342661053, 3.354331523996396 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2857, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-14T03:15Z", "coefficient_sha256": "e75594963940f8c394f2e7b7dd5ebefb408e527e142c5219e27ee1bc1835ca2f" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 16, "hits": 8, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.27999563610326017, 0.7200043638967398 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.2859132791609866, "mean_margin_error": 2.217808624941796, "mean_total_error": 1.5844090369087023, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8658450000000002, 4.865845 ], "home": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.865845, 3.170725 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.865845, 3.170725 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.865845, 3.170725 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.32926, "pa": 2.70731, "official_team_id": 25, "official_team_name": "Dallas Stars" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.63414, "pa": 2.40243, "official_team_id": 21, "official_team_name": "Colorado Avalanche" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 16, "hits": 7, "accuracy": 0.4375, "wilson95": [ 0.23098652405492354, 0.6682144360118811 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.27858171875, "mean_margin_error": 2.2469503125, "mean_total_error": 1.5365853125, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8658450000000002, 4.865845 ], "home": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.865845, 3.170725 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.865845, 3.170725 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.865845, 3.170725 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.32926, "pa": 2.70731, "official_team_id": 25, "official_team_name": "Dallas Stars" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.63414, "pa": 2.40243, "official_team_id": 21, "official_team_name": "Colorado Avalanche" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 16, "hits": 7, "accuracy": 0.4375, "wilson95": [ 0.23098652405492354, 0.6682144360118811 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.27858171875, "mean_margin_error": 2.2469503125, "mean_total_error": 1.5365853125, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8658450000000002, 4.865845 ], "home": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 2.865845, 3.170725 ], "adjustedScore": [ 2.865845, 3.170725 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892505", "away": "Dallas Stars", "home": "Colorado Avalanche", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Dallas Stars 3, Colorado Avalanche 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-198) / -1.5 (+164)", "ml": "+124 / -148", "total": "5.5; O -135 / U +114", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/dallas-stars-colorado-avalanche-401892505-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892505", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.721859+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.7761726078799245, 3.34577861163227 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7761726078799245, 3.34577861163227 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7761726078799245, 3.34577861163227 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.402439024390244, 2.7560975609756095 ], "current_rates": [ 2.1666666666666665, 1.8333333333333333 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.682926829268293, 2.475609756097561 ], "current_rates": [ 4.833333333333333, 3.1666666666666665 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 16, "hits": 9, "accuracy": 0.5625, "wilson95": [ 0.331785563988119, 0.7690134759450765 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3038850887707596, "mean_margin_error": 2.2448142502258355, "mean_total_error": 1.6145999669932598, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8658450000000002, 4.865845 ], "home": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.7889047342661053, 3.354331523996396 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7889047342661053, 3.354331523996396 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7889047342661053, 3.354331523996396 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2857, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-14T03:15Z", "coefficient_sha256": "e75594963940f8c394f2e7b7dd5ebefb408e527e142c5219e27ee1bc1835ca2f" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 16, "hits": 8, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.27999563610326017, 0.7200043638967398 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.2859132791609866, "mean_margin_error": 2.217808624941796, "mean_total_error": 1.5844090369087023, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8658450000000002, 4.865845 ], "home": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.865845, 3.170725 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.865845, 3.170725 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.865845, 3.170725 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.32926, "pa": 2.70731, "official_team_id": 25, "official_team_name": "Dallas Stars" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.63414, "pa": 2.40243, "official_team_id": 21, "official_team_name": "Colorado Avalanche" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 16, "hits": 7, "accuracy": 0.4375, "wilson95": [ 0.23098652405492354, 0.6682144360118811 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.27858171875, "mean_margin_error": 2.2469503125, "mean_total_error": 1.5365853125, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8658450000000002, 4.865845 ], "home": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.865845, 3.170725 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.865845, 3.170725 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.865845, 3.170725 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.32926, "pa": 2.70731, "official_team_id": 25, "official_team_name": "Dallas Stars" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.63414, "pa": 2.40243, "official_team_id": 21, "official_team_name": "Colorado Avalanche" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 16, "hits": 7, "accuracy": 0.4375, "wilson95": [ 0.23098652405492354, 0.6682144360118811 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-13", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.27858171875, "mean_margin_error": 2.2469503125, "mean_total_error": 1.5365853125, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8658450000000002, 4.865845 ], "home": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 2.865845, 3.170725 ], "adjustedScore": [ 2.865845, 3.170725 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 3.0, 2.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.504884+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.504884+00:00", "status": "Final", "official_event_id": 2026020107, "scores": [ 3, 2 ] } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.504884+00:00", "status": "Final", "official_event_id": 2026020107, "scores": [ 3, 2 ] }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761866", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761866", "away": "Sporting Kansas City", "home": "Nashville SC", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (+120) / -1.5 (-165)", "ml": "+800 / -450 / draw +550", "total": "3.5; O -130 / U +100", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/sporting-kansas-city-nashville-sc-761866-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761866", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.779455+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761866", "away": "Sporting Kansas City", "home": "Nashville SC", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Sporting Kansas City 0, Nashville SC 4", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (+120) / -1.5 (-165)", "ml": "+800 / -450 / draw +550", "total": "3.5; O -130 / U +100", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/sporting-kansas-city-nashville-sc-761866-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761866", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.779455+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 0.0, 4.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/nshvsskc-10-14-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.769189+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/nshvsskc-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.769189+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Nashville SC dominated Sporting Kansas City 4-0 with three first-half goals from Hany Mukhtar, Sam Surridge, and Andy N\u00e1jar, before Warren Madrigal added a second-half stoppage time penalty to complete the rout.", "scores": [ 0, 4 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/nshvsskc-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.769189+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Nashville SC dominated Sporting Kansas City 4-0 with three first-half goals from Hany Mukhtar, Sam Surridge, and Andy N\u00e1jar, before Warren Madrigal added a second-half stoppage time penalty to complete the rout.", "scores": [ 0, 4 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761867", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761867", "away": "Seattle Sounders FC", "home": "FC Dallas", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-105) / -0.5 (-130)", "ml": "+275 / -130 / draw +295", "total": "3.5; O +130 / U -165", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/seattle-sounders-fc-fc-dallas-761867-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761867", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.898297+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761867", "away": "Seattle Sounders FC", "home": "FC Dallas", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Seattle Sounders FC 0, FC Dallas 1", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-105) / -0.5 (-130)", "ml": "+275 / -130 / draw +295", "total": "3.5; O +130 / U -165", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/seattle-sounders-fc-fc-dallas-761867-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761867", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.898297+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 0.0, 1.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/dalvssea-10-14-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.033407+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/dalvssea-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.033407+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "FC Dallas defeated Seattle Sounders FC 1-0 on Kaick's 63rd-minute goal, assisted by Osaze Urhoghide. Seattle had a slight possession edge overall, but Dallas goalkeeper Daniel made 7 saves to preserve the clean sheet.", "scores": [ 0, 1 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/dalvssea-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.033407+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "FC Dallas defeated Seattle Sounders FC 1-0 on Kaick's 63rd-minute goal, assisted by Osaze Urhoghide. Seattle had a slight possession edge overall, but Dallas goalkeeper Daniel made 7 saves to preserve the clean sheet.", "scores": [ 0, 1 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761868", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761868", "away": "Vancouver Whitecaps", "home": "St. Louis CITY SC", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-150) / -0.5 (+105)", "ml": "+195 / +110 / draw +275", "total": "3.5; O +120 / U -150", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/vancouver-whitecaps-st-louis-city-sc-761868-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761868", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.912819+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761868", "away": "Vancouver Whitecaps", "home": "St. Louis CITY SC", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Vancouver Whitecaps 0, St. Louis CITY SC 0", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-150) / -0.5 (+105)", "ml": "+195 / +110 / draw +275", "total": "3.5; O +120 / U -150", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/vancouver-whitecaps-st-louis-city-sc-761868-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761868", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.912819+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/stlvsvan-10-14-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.575009+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/stlvsvan-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.575009+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "St. Louis CITY SC and Vancouver Whitecaps FC played to a 0-0 draw in a tight contest. Vancouver generated 17 shots overall but St. Louis goalkeeper Roman B\u00fcrki and the defense held firm to keep a clean sheet.", "scores": [ 0, 0 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/stlvsvan-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.575009+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "St. Louis CITY SC and Vancouver Whitecaps FC played to a 0-0 draw in a tight contest. Vancouver generated 17 shots overall but St. Louis goalkeeper Roman B\u00fcrki and the defense held firm to keep a clean sheet.", "scores": [ 0, 0 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761869", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761869", "away": "Philadelphia Union", "home": "Chicago Fire FC", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-0.5 (+130) / +0.5 (-185)", "ml": "+140 / +155 / draw +270", "total": "3.5; O -105 / U -120", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/philadelphia-union-chicago-fire-fc-761869-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761869", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.963434+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761869", "away": "Philadelphia Union", "home": "Chicago Fire FC", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Philadelphia Union 3, Chicago Fire FC 1", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-0.5 (+130) / +0.5 (-185)", "ml": "+140 / +155 / draw +270", "total": "3.5; O -105 / U -120", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/philadelphia-union-chicago-fire-fc-761869-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761869", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.963434+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 3.0, 1.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/chivsphi-10-14-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.082216+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/chivsphi-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.082216+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Philadelphia Union defeated Chicago Fire FC 3-1 in a dominant second-half comeback. Jack Elliott's second-yellow red card in first-half stoppage time proved costly, as Bruno Damiani scored twice after the break to seal the win for Philadelphia.", "scores": [ 3, 1 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/chivsphi-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.082216+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Philadelphia Union defeated Chicago Fire FC 3-1 in a dominant second-half comeback. Jack Elliott's second-yellow red card in first-half stoppage time proved costly, as Bruno Damiani scored twice after the break to seal the win for Philadelphia.", "scores": [ 3, 1 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761870", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761870", "away": "San Jose Earthquakes", "home": "Real Salt Lake", "startTime": "9:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-120) / -0.5 (-115)", "ml": "+240 / -115 / draw +290", "total": "3.5; O +115 / U -145", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/san-jose-earthquakes-real-salt-lake-761870-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761870", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.953325+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761870", "away": "San Jose Earthquakes", "home": "Real Salt Lake", "startTime": "9:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "San Jose Earthquakes 1, Real Salt Lake 1", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-120) / -0.5 (-115)", "ml": "+240 / -115 / draw +290", "total": "3.5; O +115 / U -145", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/san-jose-earthquakes-real-salt-lake-761870-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761870", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.953325+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 1.0, 1.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/rslvssj-10-14-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:33:15.271689+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/rslvssj-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:15.271689+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes played to a 1-1 draw. Salt Lake's Luc de Fougerolles scored in the 79th minute, but San Jose's Jack Jasinski equalized in second-half stoppage time to deny the hosts.", "scores": [ 1, 1 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/rslvssj-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:15.271689+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes played to a 1-1 draw. Salt Lake's Luc de Fougerolles scored in the 79th minute, but San Jose's Jack Jasinski equalized in second-half stoppage time to deny the hosts.", "scores": [ 1, 1 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761871", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761871", "away": "Minnesota United FC", "home": "Colorado Rapids", "startTime": "9:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-135) / -0.5 (-105)", "ml": "+220 / +105 / draw +260", "total": "2.5; O -165 / U +130", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/minnesota-united-fc-colorado-rapids-761871-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761871", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:10.025952+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761871", "away": "Minnesota United FC", "home": "Colorado Rapids", "startTime": "9:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Minnesota United FC 2, Colorado Rapids 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-135) / -0.5 (-105)", "ml": "+220 / +105 / draw +260", "total": "2.5; O -165 / U +130", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/minnesota-united-fc-colorado-rapids-761871-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761871", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:10.025952+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 117.35366, 115.341465 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.35366, 115.341465 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.35366, 115.341465 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761872", "away": "Houston Dynamo FC", "home": "San Diego FC", "startTime": "10:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Houston Dynamo FC 3, San Diego FC 3", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-150) / -0.5 (+110)", "ml": "+205 / +110 / draw +255", "total": "2.5; O -155 / U +120", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/houston-dynamo-fc-san-diego-fc-761872-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761872", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:10.230270+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/sdvshou-10-14-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.718787+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/sdvshou-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.718787+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "San Diego FC and Houston Dynamo FC played to a thrilling 3-3 draw, with five first-half goals setting the tone. Gabriel Pirani's 86th-minute equalizer for San Diego salvaged the draw after Guilherme Santos' brace had given Houston the lead.", "scores": [ 3, 3 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/sdvshou-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.718787+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "San Diego FC and Houston Dynamo FC played to a thrilling 3-3 draw, with five first-half goals setting the tone. Gabriel Pirani's 86th-minute equalizer for San Diego salvaged the draw after Guilherme Santos' brace had given Houston the lead.", "scores": [ 3, 3 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761873", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761873", "away": "Austin FC", "home": "LAFC", "startTime": "10:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-155) / -1.5 (+110)", "ml": "+500 / -230 / draw +360", "total": "3.5; O +135 / U -170", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/austin-fc-lafc-761873-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761873", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:10.123057+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761873", "away": "Austin FC", "home": "LAFC", "startTime": "10:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Austin FC 1, LAFC 3", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-155) / -1.5 (+110)", "ml": "+500 / -230 / draw +360", "total": "3.5; O +135 / U -170", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/austin-fc-lafc-761873-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761873", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:10.123057+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 1.0, 3.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/lafcvsatx-10-14-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.618601+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/lafcvsatx-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.618601+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Los Angeles Football Club defeated Austin FC 3-1 in a dominant second-half performance. Denis Bouanga scored twice for LAFC, with Son Heung-Min adding a third, as Austin's Brad Stuver made 7 second-half saves in a losing effort.", "scores": [ 1, 3 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/lafcvsatx-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.618601+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "Los Angeles Football Club defeated Austin FC 3-1 in a dominant second-half performance. Denis Bouanga scored twice for LAFC, with Son Heung-Min adding a third, as Austin's Brad Stuver made 7 second-half saves in a losing effort.", "scores": [ 1, 3 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761874", "before": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761874", "away": "Portland Timbers", "home": "LA Galaxy", "startTime": "10:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-135) / -0.5 (-105)", "ml": "+210 / +100 / draw +280", "total": "3.5; O +100 / U -125", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/portland-timbers-la-galaxy-761874-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761874", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:10.153469+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-14", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761874", "away": "Portland Timbers", "home": "LA Galaxy", "startTime": "10:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Portland Timbers 0, LA Galaxy 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-135) / -0.5 (-105)", "ml": "+210 / +100 / draw +280", "total": "3.5; O +100 / U -125", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/14/portland-timbers-la-galaxy-761874-october-14-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761874", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-14T10:50:10.153469+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "MLS registered engine unavailable. Sporting reference XIs, availability and both-party trade pathways retained; no invented goal conversion.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": {}, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered MLS score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 0.0, 2.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/lavspor-10-14-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.774182+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/lavspor-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.774182+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "LA Galaxy defeated the Portland Timbers 2-0, with Marco Reus scoring in the 17th minute and Justin Haak adding a headed goal in the 80th minute to seal the win.", "scores": [ 0, 2 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/lavspor-10-14-2026/", "verified_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:14.774182+00:00", "status": "Final", "excerpt": "LA Galaxy defeated the Portland Timbers 2-0, with Marco Reus scoring in the 17th minute and Justin Haak adding a headed goal in the 80th minute to seal the win.", "scores": [ 0, 2 ], "limitation": "Official MLS recap includes disclosed AI assistance; score independently agrees with ESPN sporting feed." }, "applied": false } ], "summary": { "events": 27, "wins": 1, "losses": 0, "no_grade": 26 }, "preservation": "Original Oct14 site/ZIP unchanged; original selection, line and freeze preserved." }