{
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    {
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      "mean_team_score_mae": 10.573333333333334,
      "mean_margin_error": 6.477499999999996,
      "mean_total_error": 20.70608974358975,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability.",
      "median_game_team_mae": 10.573333333333334,
      "lowest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401871054",
        "team_mae": 3.0112499999999986
      },
      "highest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401871068",
        "team_mae": 18.13541666666667
      },
      "side_vs_total_diagnosis": "Total error exceeds or equals margin error; combined scoring was less accurate than allocation.",
      "module_grade_scope": "Numerical outcome diagnostics only. No retrospective rule change or event confidence inferred."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "sport": "NCAAF",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5,
      "wilson95": [
        0.09453120573423074,
        0.9054687942657693
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-14",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 11.323333333333334,
      "mean_margin_error": 7.977499999999996,
      "mean_total_error": 22.20608974358975,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability.",
      "median_game_team_mae": 11.323333333333334,
      "lowest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401871054",
        "team_mae": 4.511249999999999
      },
      "highest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401871068",
        "team_mae": 18.13541666666667
      },
      "side_vs_total_diagnosis": "Total error exceeds or equals margin error; combined scoring was less accurate than allocation.",
      "module_grade_scope": "Numerical outcome diagnostics only. No retrospective rule change or event confidence inferred."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.6576197724933469
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-14",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625,
      "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997,
      "mean_total_error": 1.8810975,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability.",
      "median_game_team_mae": 1.00762625,
      "lowest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401892505",
        "team_mae": 0.6524399999999999
      },
      "highest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401892504",
        "team_mae": 1.3628125
      },
      "side_vs_total_diagnosis": "Total error exceeds or equals margin error; combined scoring was less accurate than allocation.",
      "module_grade_scope": "Numerical outcome diagnostics only. No retrospective rule change or event confidence inferred."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.6576197724933469
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-14",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625,
      "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997,
      "mean_total_error": 1.8810975,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability.",
      "median_game_team_mae": 1.00762625,
      "lowest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401892505",
        "team_mae": 0.6524399999999999
      },
      "highest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401892504",
        "team_mae": 1.3628125
      },
      "side_vs_total_diagnosis": "Total error exceeds or equals margin error; combined scoring was less accurate than allocation.",
      "module_grade_scope": "Numerical outcome diagnostics only. No retrospective rule change or event confidence inferred."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "MLB",
      "season_type": 3,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "accuracy": 1.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.20654931437723745,
        1.0
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-14",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 1.9799382716049383,
      "mean_margin_error": 3.9598765432098766,
      "mean_total_error": 0.7993827160493829,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability.",
      "median_game_team_mae": 1.9799382716049383,
      "lowest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401908032",
        "team_mae": 1.9799382716049383
      },
      "highest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401908032",
        "team_mae": 1.9799382716049383
      },
      "side_vs_total_diagnosis": "Margin error exceeds total error; team score allocation was less accurate than combined scoring.",
      "module_grade_scope": "Numerical outcome diagnostics only. No retrospective rule change or event confidence inferred."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "MLB",
      "season_type": 3,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "accuracy": 1.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.20654931437723745,
        1.0
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-14",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 1.9799382716049383,
      "mean_margin_error": 3.9598765432098766,
      "mean_total_error": 0.7993827160493829,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability.",
      "median_game_team_mae": 1.9799382716049383,
      "lowest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401908032",
        "team_mae": 1.9799382716049383
      },
      "highest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401908032",
        "team_mae": 1.9799382716049383
      },
      "side_vs_total_diagnosis": "Margin error exceeds total error; team score allocation was less accurate than combined scoring.",
      "module_grade_scope": "Numerical outcome diagnostics only. No retrospective rule change or event confidence inferred."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NBA",
      "season_type": 1,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 7,
      "hits": 6,
      "accuracy": 0.8571428571428571,
      "wilson95": [
        0.4868721707256811,
        0.9743203756552565
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-14",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 12.02047053571429,
      "mean_margin_error": 14.798779642857147,
      "mean_total_error": 15.07055821428572,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability.",
      "median_game_team_mae": 9.798781250000005,
      "lowest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401918011",
        "team_mae": 7.006097500000003
      },
      "highest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401898404",
        "team_mae": 20.689026249999998
      },
      "side_vs_total_diagnosis": "Total error exceeds or equals margin error; combined scoring was less accurate than allocation.",
      "module_grade_scope": "Numerical outcome diagnostics only. No retrospective rule change or event confidence inferred."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NBA",
      "season_type": 1,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 7,
      "hits": 6,
      "accuracy": 0.8571428571428571,
      "wilson95": [
        0.4868721707256811,
        0.9743203756552565
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-14",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 12.02047053571429,
      "mean_margin_error": 14.798779642857147,
      "mean_total_error": 15.07055821428572,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability.",
      "median_game_team_mae": 9.798781250000005,
      "lowest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401918011",
        "team_mae": 7.006097500000003
      },
      "highest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401898404",
        "team_mae": 20.689026249999998
      },
      "side_vs_total_diagnosis": "Total error exceeds or equals margin error; combined scoring was less accurate than allocation.",
      "module_grade_scope": "Numerical outcome diagnostics only. No retrospective rule change or event confidence inferred."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NCAAF",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5,
      "wilson95": [
        0.09453120573423074,
        0.9054687942657693
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-14",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 10.573333333333334,
      "mean_margin_error": 6.477499999999996,
      "mean_total_error": 20.70608974358975,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability.",
      "median_game_team_mae": 10.573333333333334,
      "lowest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401871054",
        "team_mae": 3.0112499999999986
      },
      "highest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401871068",
        "team_mae": 18.13541666666667
      },
      "side_vs_total_diagnosis": "Total error exceeds or equals margin error; combined scoring was less accurate than allocation.",
      "module_grade_scope": "Numerical outcome diagnostics only. No retrospective rule change or event confidence inferred."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NCAAF",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5,
      "wilson95": [
        0.09453120573423074,
        0.9054687942657693
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-14",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 11.323333333333334,
      "mean_margin_error": 7.977499999999996,
      "mean_total_error": 22.20608974358975,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability.",
      "median_game_team_mae": 11.323333333333334,
      "lowest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401871054",
        "team_mae": 4.511249999999999
      },
      "highest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401871068",
        "team_mae": 18.13541666666667
      },
      "side_vs_total_diagnosis": "Total error exceeds or equals margin error; combined scoring was less accurate than allocation.",
      "module_grade_scope": "Numerical outcome diagnostics only. No retrospective rule change or event confidence inferred."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.6576197724933469
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-14",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625,
      "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997,
      "mean_total_error": 1.8810975,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability.",
      "median_game_team_mae": 1.00762625,
      "lowest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401892505",
        "team_mae": 0.6524399999999999
      },
      "highest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401892504",
        "team_mae": 1.3628125
      },
      "side_vs_total_diagnosis": "Total error exceeds or equals margin error; combined scoring was less accurate than allocation.",
      "module_grade_scope": "Numerical outcome diagnostics only. No retrospective rule change or event confidence inferred."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.6576197724933469
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-14",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625,
      "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997,
      "mean_total_error": 1.8810975,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability.",
      "median_game_team_mae": 1.00762625,
      "lowest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401892505",
        "team_mae": 0.6524399999999999
      },
      "highest_error_forecast": {
        "eventId": "401892504",
        "team_mae": 1.3628125
      },
      "side_vs_total_diagnosis": "Total error exceeds or equals margin error; combined scoring was less accurate than allocation.",
      "module_grade_scope": "Numerical outcome diagnostics only. No retrospective rule change or event confidence inferred."
    }
  ],
  "note": "Sport units and competition stages kept separate. Best/worst means observed forecast error, not certified calibration. Previous decision/source/availability module audits remain immutable inside prior release."
}