{
  "created_utc": "2026-10-15T05:58:53.027918+00:00",
  "freeze_sha256": "8ceec36ab039c18d3e8b0cebcb4c1e9b0cccfadc10631ca21ed0e37c1dd53210",
  "freeze_unchanged": true,
  "risk": {
    "severity": "HIGH",
    "risk": "Current Old Dominion offensive capability and rushing tempo diverge materially from the prior-year foundation",
    "detail": "This is an event-specific offensive-transition mechanism, not ordinary model disagreement. The official notes document Colton Joseph leaving for Wisconsin, a new offensive coordinator, Henicle returning from an injury absence, and 61 rushes for 207 yards in a 10-point last game. Six current games average 18.1667 points versus 32.6667 last season. The frozen current-matchup home component is 21.25 versus the 29.8417 production mean. This supported downside can erase more than half the spread edge and cross the over line; independent ordinary stress defeats both. Unconfirmed Connor Drake protection status remains a separate MEDIUM risk.",
    "markets": [
      "spread",
      "total"
    ],
    "resolved": false,
    "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true,
    "sources": [
      "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\score-freeze.json",
      "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-game-notes.json",
      "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-preview.json"
    ],
    "adverse_cases": [
      {
        "name": "Frozen current-season matchup",
        "score": [
          26.083333333333336,
          21.25
        ],
        "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357,
        "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336,
        "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643,
        "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643,
        "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
      },
      {
        "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed",
        "score": [
          23.804166666666667,
          21.25
        ],
        "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329,
        "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667,
        "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333,
        "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333,
        "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision."
      }
    ],
    "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections 3, 5 and 7: current context, supported invalidation and adverse-case tests."
  },
  "current_score": [
    23.804166666666667,
    29.841666666666665
  ],
  "final_decision": "PASS spread and total in ON and OFF",
  "fresh_recheck": "final-recheck/football/football-selection-recheck.json"
}