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No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. 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Preserve baseline and conditional minus-three scores. 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No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. 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Preserve baseline and conditional minus-three scores. Current final availability and the future target allocation are not certified; live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 1.4749999999999943, "worst_case": { "branch": "Brock Spalding \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "buffer": 4.474999999999994, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.474999999999994, "adverse_score": [ 27.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.4749999999999943 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "buffer": 7.474999999999994, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.474999999999994, "adverse_score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.474999999999994 }, { "branch": "Brock Spalding \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "buffer": 4.474999999999994, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.474999999999994, "adverse_score": [ 27.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.4749999999999943 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "buffer": 6.1212121212121176, "stressed_buffer": 3.1212121212121176, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "buffer": 7.084358584299402, "stressed_buffer": 4.084358584299402, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "home_selection": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 51.974999999999994, "under_selection_total": 54.974999999999994 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, { "event_id": "401869950", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869950", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.586472+00:00", "selection_side": "home", "line": 3.5, "home_line": 3.5, "pick": "Old Dominion Monarchs +3.5", "price": -110.0, "canonical_buffer": 9.537499999999998, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": 9.537499999999998, "worst_applicable_buffer": 9.537499999999998, "worst_stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998, "base_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 9.537499999999998, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998, "adverse_score": [ 26.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation", "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Current Old Dominion offensive capability and rushing tempo diverge materially from the prior-year foundation", "detail": "This is an event-specific offensive-transition mechanism, not ordinary model disagreement. The official notes document Colton Joseph leaving for Wisconsin, a new offensive coordinator, Henicle returning from an injury absence, and 61 rushes for 207 yards in a 10-point last game. Six current games average 18.1667 points versus 32.6667 last season. The frozen current-matchup home component is 21.25 versus the 29.8417 production mean. This supported downside can erase more than half the spread edge and cross the over line; independent ordinary stress defeats both. Unconfirmed Connor Drake protection status remains a separate MEDIUM risk.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true, "sources": [ "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\score-freeze.json", "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-game-notes.json", "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-preview.json" ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen current-season matchup", "score": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336, "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643, "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." }, { "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667, "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333, "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." } ], "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections 3, 5 and 7: current context, supported invalidation and adverse-case tests." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Conservative ON excludes unresolved medium risk", "Unresolved HIGH: supported current offensive capability and tempo adverse case fails the selected market." ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 6.537499999999998, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 9.537499999999998, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998, "adverse_score": [ 26.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 9.537499999999998, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998, "adverse_score": [ 26.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "buffer": 7.520833333333332, "stressed_buffer": 4.520833333333332, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "buffer": 14.79916726402799, "stressed_buffer": 11.79916726402799, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "home_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 53.64583333333333, "under_selection_total": 53.64583333333333 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier.", "prior_numerical_decision": "PASS", "mechanism_adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen current-season matchup", "score": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336, "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643, "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." }, { "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667, "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333, "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." } ], "policy_reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:58:53.027918+00:00" }, { "event_id": "401869950", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "matchup": "Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869950", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.586472+00:00", "selection_side": "over", "line": 47.5, "home_line": 3.5, "pick": "Over 47.5", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 6.145833333333329, "required_buffer": 5, "minimum_branch_buffer": 6.145833333333329, "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.145833333333329, "worst_stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286, "base_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 6.145833333333329, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329, "adverse_score": [ 20.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation", "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Current Old Dominion offensive capability and rushing tempo diverge materially from the prior-year foundation", "detail": "This is an event-specific offensive-transition mechanism, not ordinary model disagreement. The official notes document Colton Joseph leaving for Wisconsin, a new offensive coordinator, Henicle returning from an injury absence, and 61 rushes for 207 yards in a 10-point last game. Six current games average 18.1667 points versus 32.6667 last season. The frozen current-matchup home component is 21.25 versus the 29.8417 production mean. This supported downside can erase more than half the spread edge and cross the over line; independent ordinary stress defeats both. Unconfirmed Connor Drake protection status remains a separate MEDIUM risk.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true, "sources": [ "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\score-freeze.json", "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-game-notes.json", "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-preview.json" ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen current-season matchup", "score": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336, "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643, "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." }, { "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667, "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333, "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." } ], "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections 3, 5 and 7: current context, supported invalidation and adverse-case tests." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Conservative ON excludes unresolved medium risk", "Unresolved HIGH: supported current offensive capability and tempo adverse case fails the selected market." ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 3.1458333333333286, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 6.145833333333329, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329, "adverse_score": [ 20.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 6.145833333333329, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329, "adverse_score": [ 20.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "buffer": 4.645833333333329, "stressed_buffer": 1.6458333333333286, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "buffer": 3.7593901812618213, "stressed_buffer": 0.7593901812618213, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "home_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 53.64583333333333, "under_selection_total": 53.64583333333333 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier.", "prior_numerical_decision": "PASS", "mechanism_adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen current-season matchup", "score": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336, "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643, "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." }, { "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667, "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333, "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." } ], "policy_reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:58:53.027918+00:00" }, { "event_id": "401869950", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869950", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.586472+00:00", "selection_side": "home", "line": 3.5, "home_line": 3.5, "pick": "Old Dominion Monarchs +3.5", "price": -110.0, "canonical_buffer": 9.537499999999998, "required_buffer": 3, "minimum_branch_buffer": 9.537499999999998, "worst_applicable_buffer": 9.537499999999998, "worst_stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998, "base_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 9.537499999999998, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998, "adverse_score": [ 26.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation", "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Current Old Dominion offensive capability and rushing tempo diverge materially from the prior-year foundation", "detail": "This is an event-specific offensive-transition mechanism, not ordinary model disagreement. The official notes document Colton Joseph leaving for Wisconsin, a new offensive coordinator, Henicle returning from an injury absence, and 61 rushes for 207 yards in a 10-point last game. Six current games average 18.1667 points versus 32.6667 last season. The frozen current-matchup home component is 21.25 versus the 29.8417 production mean. This supported downside can erase more than half the spread edge and cross the over line; independent ordinary stress defeats both. Unconfirmed Connor Drake protection status remains a separate MEDIUM risk.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true, "sources": [ "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\score-freeze.json", "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-game-notes.json", "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-preview.json" ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen current-season matchup", "score": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336, "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643, "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." }, { "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667, "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333, "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." } ], "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections 3, 5 and 7: current context, supported invalidation and adverse-case tests." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Unresolved HIGH: supported current offensive capability and tempo adverse case fails the selected market." ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 6.537499999999998, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 9.537499999999998, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998, "adverse_score": [ 26.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 9.537499999999998, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998, "adverse_score": [ 26.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "buffer": 7.520833333333332, "stressed_buffer": 4.520833333333332, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "buffer": 14.79916726402799, "stressed_buffer": 11.79916726402799, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "home_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 53.64583333333333, "under_selection_total": 53.64583333333333 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier.", "prior_numerical_decision": "CANDIDATE_ELIGIBLE", "mechanism_adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen current-season matchup", "score": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336, "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643, "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." }, { "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667, "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333, "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." } ], "policy_reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:58:53.027918+00:00" }, { "event_id": "401869950", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "matchup": "Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869950", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.586472+00:00", "selection_side": "over", "line": 47.5, "home_line": 3.5, "pick": "Over 47.5", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 6.145833333333329, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": 6.145833333333329, "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.145833333333329, "worst_stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286, "base_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 6.145833333333329, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329, "adverse_score": [ 20.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation", "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Current Old Dominion offensive capability and rushing tempo diverge materially from the prior-year foundation", "detail": "This is an event-specific offensive-transition mechanism, not ordinary model disagreement. The official notes document Colton Joseph leaving for Wisconsin, a new offensive coordinator, Henicle returning from an injury absence, and 61 rushes for 207 yards in a 10-point last game. Six current games average 18.1667 points versus 32.6667 last season. The frozen current-matchup home component is 21.25 versus the 29.8417 production mean. This supported downside can erase more than half the spread edge and cross the over line; independent ordinary stress defeats both. Unconfirmed Connor Drake protection status remains a separate MEDIUM risk.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true, "sources": [ "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\score-freeze.json", "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-game-notes.json", "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-preview.json" ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen current-season matchup", "score": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336, "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643, "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." }, { "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667, "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333, "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." } ], "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections 3, 5 and 7: current context, supported invalidation and adverse-case tests." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Unresolved HIGH: supported current offensive capability and tempo adverse case fails the selected market." ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 3.1458333333333286, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 6.145833333333329, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329, "adverse_score": [ 20.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 6.145833333333329, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329, "adverse_score": [ 20.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "buffer": 4.645833333333329, "stressed_buffer": 1.6458333333333286, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "buffer": 3.7593901812618213, "stressed_buffer": 0.7593901812618213, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "home_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 53.64583333333333, "under_selection_total": 53.64583333333333 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier.", "prior_numerical_decision": "CANDIDATE_ELIGIBLE", "mechanism_adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen current-season matchup", "score": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336, "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643, "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." }, { "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667, "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333, "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." } ], "policy_reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:58:53.027918+00:00" }, { "event_id": "401860923", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860923", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.446046+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "selection_side": "away", "line": 14.5, "home_line": -14.5, "pick": "Colorado State Rams +14.5", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 3.715, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": -2.285, "worst_applicable_buffer": -2.285, "worst_stressed_buffer": -5.285, "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 3.715, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.715, "adverse_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.7149999999999999 }, { "branch": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 0.7149999999999999, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.7149999999999999, "adverse_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.285 }, { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": -2.285, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285, "adverse_score": [ 21.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.285 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved", "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -5.285, "worst_case": { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": -2.285, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285, "adverse_score": [ 21.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.285 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 3.715, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.715, "adverse_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.7149999999999999 }, { "branch": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 0.7149999999999999, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.7149999999999999, "adverse_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.285 }, { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": -2.285, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285, "adverse_score": [ 21.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.285 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "buffer": 7.5, "stressed_buffer": 4.5, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "buffer": -1.663297941341149, "stressed_buffer": -4.663297941341149, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "home_selection": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 60.5, "under_selection_total": 66.5 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, { "event_id": "401860923", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "matchup": "Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860923", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.446046+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "selection_side": "under", "line": 70.5, "home_line": -14.5, "pick": "Under 70.5", "price": -110.0, "canonical_buffer": 4.0, "required_buffer": 5, "minimum_branch_buffer": 4.0, "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.0, "worst_stressed_buffer": 1.0, "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 4.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0, "adverse_score": [ 30.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.0 }, { "branch": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 7.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.0, "adverse_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.0 }, { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 10.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.0, "adverse_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.0 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved", "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 1.0, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 4.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0, "adverse_score": [ 30.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.0 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 4.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0, "adverse_score": [ 30.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.0 }, { "branch": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 7.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.0, "adverse_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.0 }, { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 10.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.0, "adverse_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.0 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "buffer": 6.13636363636364, "stressed_buffer": 3.1363636363636402, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "buffer": 6.081834956268892, "stressed_buffer": 3.0818349562688923, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "home_selection": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 60.5, "under_selection_total": 66.5 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, { "event_id": "401860923", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860923", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.446046+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "selection_side": "away", "line": 14.5, "home_line": -14.5, "pick": "Colorado State Rams +14.5", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 3.715, "required_buffer": 3, "minimum_branch_buffer": -2.285, "worst_applicable_buffer": -2.285, "worst_stressed_buffer": -5.285, "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 3.715, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.715, "adverse_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.7149999999999999 }, { "branch": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 0.7149999999999999, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.7149999999999999, "adverse_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.285 }, { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": -2.285, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285, "adverse_score": [ 21.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.285 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved", "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -5.285, "worst_case": { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": -2.285, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285, "adverse_score": [ 21.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.285 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 3.715, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.715, "adverse_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.7149999999999999 }, { "branch": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 0.7149999999999999, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.7149999999999999, "adverse_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.285 }, { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": -2.285, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285, "adverse_score": [ 21.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.285 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "buffer": 7.5, "stressed_buffer": 4.5, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "buffer": -1.663297941341149, "stressed_buffer": -4.663297941341149, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "home_selection": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 60.5, "under_selection_total": 66.5 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, { "event_id": "401860923", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "matchup": "Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860923", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.446046+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "selection_side": "under", "line": 70.5, "home_line": -14.5, "pick": "Under 70.5", "price": -110.0, "canonical_buffer": 4.0, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": 4.0, "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.0, "worst_stressed_buffer": 1.0, "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 4.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0, "adverse_score": [ 30.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.0 }, { "branch": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 7.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.0, "adverse_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.0 }, { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 10.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.0, "adverse_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.0 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved", "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 1.0, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 4.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0, "adverse_score": [ 30.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.0 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 4.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0, "adverse_score": [ 30.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.0 }, { "branch": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 7.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.0, "adverse_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.0 }, { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 10.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.0, "adverse_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.0 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "buffer": 6.13636363636364, "stressed_buffer": 3.1363636363636402, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "buffer": 6.081834956268892, "stressed_buffer": 3.0818349562688923, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "home_selection": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 60.5, "under_selection_total": 66.5 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, { "event_id": "401872995", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872995", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.806643+00:00", "selection_side": "away", "line": -2.5, "home_line": 2.5, "pick": "Seattle Seahawks -2.5", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": -5.123289936151185, "worst_applicable_buffer": -5.123289936151185, "worst_stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185, "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848 }, { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848 }, { "branch": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -2.1232899361511848, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.1232899361511848, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.123289936151185 }, { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -5.123289936151185, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -5.123289936151185, "adverse_score": [ 18.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185 }, { "branch": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 3.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.8767100638488152 } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver secondary and Seattle linebacker replacement effects remain unresolved", "detail": "Surtain and Hufanga are out, Moss is questionable, and Tyrice Knight replaces Drake Thomas. Coverage, pressure and field-position effects could change opponent scoring, but no supported point conversion exists. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Seattle running-back overlap and Denver receiver materiality", "detail": "Test Seattle deductions of zero, three and six points and Denver deductions of zero and three points. The six-point Seattle endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads; it is not automatic injury headcount. Ordinary stress and high-risk gates still apply.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress", "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual availability and unestimated defensive effects are evaluated separately." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "2 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -8.123289936151185, "worst_case": { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -5.123289936151185, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -5.123289936151185, "adverse_score": [ 18.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185 }, "scenario_count": 5, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848 }, { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848 }, { "branch": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -2.1232899361511848, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.1232899361511848, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.123289936151185 }, { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -5.123289936151185, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -5.123289936151185, "adverse_score": [ 18.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185 }, { "branch": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 3.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.8767100638488152 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 20.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "buffer": -0.42513368983956923, "stressed_buffer": -3.4251336898395692, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 19.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "buffer": -0.30932455800310876, "stressed_buffer": -3.3093245580031088, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "home_selection": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 35.69614522427662, "under_selection_total": 44.69614522427662 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, { "event_id": "401872995", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "matchup": "Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872995", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.806643+00:00", "selection_side": "under", "line": 40.5, "home_line": 2.5, "pick": "Under 40.5", "price": -108.0, "canonical_buffer": 1.80385477572338, "required_buffer": 5, "minimum_branch_buffer": -4.19614522427662, "worst_applicable_buffer": -4.19614522427662, "worst_stressed_buffer": -7.19614522427662, "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 1.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -4.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -7.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -1.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 1.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -1.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Frozen total bound over_selection_total", "score": [ 18.036427644062716, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 4.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 21.036427644062716, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.80385477572338 } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver secondary and Seattle linebacker replacement effects remain unresolved", "detail": "Surtain and Hufanga are out, Moss is questionable, and Tyrice Knight replaces Drake Thomas. Coverage, pressure and field-position effects could change opponent scoring, but no supported point conversion exists. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Seattle running-back overlap and Denver receiver materiality", "detail": "Test Seattle deductions of zero, three and six points and Denver deductions of zero and three points. The six-point Seattle endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads; it is not automatic injury headcount. Ordinary stress and high-risk gates still apply.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress", "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual availability and unestimated defensive effects are evaluated separately." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "2 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -7.19614522427662, "worst_case": { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -4.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -7.19614522427662 }, "scenario_count": 6, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 1.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -4.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -7.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -1.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 1.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -1.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Frozen total bound over_selection_total", "score": [ 18.036427644062716, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 4.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 21.036427644062716, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.80385477572338 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 20.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "buffer": 2.3262032085561515, "stressed_buffer": -0.6737967914438485, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 19.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "buffer": 3.620550942157493, "stressed_buffer": 0.6205509421574931, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "home_selection": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 35.69614522427662, "under_selection_total": 44.69614522427662 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, { "event_id": "401872995", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872995", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.806643+00:00", "selection_side": "away", "line": -2.5, "home_line": 2.5, "pick": "Seattle Seahawks -2.5", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "required_buffer": 3, "minimum_branch_buffer": -5.123289936151185, "worst_applicable_buffer": -5.123289936151185, "worst_stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185, "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848 }, { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848 }, { "branch": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -2.1232899361511848, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.1232899361511848, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.123289936151185 }, { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -5.123289936151185, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -5.123289936151185, "adverse_score": [ 18.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185 }, { "branch": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 3.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.8767100638488152 } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver secondary and Seattle linebacker replacement effects remain unresolved", "detail": "Surtain and Hufanga are out, Moss is questionable, and Tyrice Knight replaces Drake Thomas. Coverage, pressure and field-position effects could change opponent scoring, but no supported point conversion exists. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Seattle running-back overlap and Denver receiver materiality", "detail": "Test Seattle deductions of zero, three and six points and Denver deductions of zero and three points. The six-point Seattle endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads; it is not automatic injury headcount. Ordinary stress and high-risk gates still apply.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress", "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual availability and unestimated defensive effects are evaluated separately." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "2 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -8.123289936151185, "worst_case": { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -5.123289936151185, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -5.123289936151185, "adverse_score": [ 18.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185 }, "scenario_count": 5, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848 }, { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848 }, { "branch": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -2.1232899361511848, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.1232899361511848, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.123289936151185 }, { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -5.123289936151185, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -5.123289936151185, "adverse_score": [ 18.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185 }, { "branch": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 3.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.8767100638488152 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 20.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "buffer": -0.42513368983956923, "stressed_buffer": -3.4251336898395692, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 19.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "buffer": -0.30932455800310876, "stressed_buffer": -3.3093245580031088, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "home_selection": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 35.69614522427662, "under_selection_total": 44.69614522427662 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, { "event_id": "401872995", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "matchup": "Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872995", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.806643+00:00", "selection_side": "under", "line": 40.5, "home_line": 2.5, "pick": "Under 40.5", "price": -108.0, "canonical_buffer": 1.80385477572338, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": -4.19614522427662, "worst_applicable_buffer": -4.19614522427662, "worst_stressed_buffer": -7.19614522427662, "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 1.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -4.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -7.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -1.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 1.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -1.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Frozen total bound over_selection_total", "score": [ 18.036427644062716, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 4.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 21.036427644062716, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.80385477572338 } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver secondary and Seattle linebacker replacement effects remain unresolved", "detail": "Surtain and Hufanga are out, Moss is questionable, and Tyrice Knight replaces Drake Thomas. Coverage, pressure and field-position effects could change opponent scoring, but no supported point conversion exists. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Seattle running-back overlap and Denver receiver materiality", "detail": "Test Seattle deductions of zero, three and six points and Denver deductions of zero and three points. The six-point Seattle endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads; it is not automatic injury headcount. Ordinary stress and high-risk gates still apply.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress", "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual availability and unestimated defensive effects are evaluated separately." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "2 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -7.19614522427662, "worst_case": { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -4.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -7.19614522427662 }, "scenario_count": 6, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 1.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -4.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -7.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -1.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 1.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -1.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Frozen total bound over_selection_total", "score": [ 18.036427644062716, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 4.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 21.036427644062716, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.80385477572338 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 20.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "buffer": 2.3262032085561515, "stressed_buffer": -0.6737967914438485, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 19.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "buffer": 3.620550942157493, "stressed_buffer": 0.6205509421574931, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "home_selection": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 35.69614522427662, "under_selection_total": 44.69614522427662 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." } ], "rankings": { "ON": [], "OFF": [] }, "extra_quote_handling": [], "risk_assessment_note": "New timestamped interpretation of unchanged frozen current-season inputs and official personnel/tempo evidence. No source, score or freeze changed. No model unanimity condition and no opposite pick promoted.", "board_scope": "Current four NFL/FBS events, independent spread/total decisions for ON/OFF; not an all-sport ranking.", "validation": { "all16_unique": true, "all_prices_after_freeze": true, "score_checksum_unchanged": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "all16_policy_final_pass": true }, "supersedes": "postprice-tightenup-gates-initial.json", "supersedes_scope": "Event-specific ODU spread and total eligibility; arithmetic remains correct in original narrower availability review.", "late_risk_classification_note": "The preprice ledger retained the official current-season sources and model inputs but did not explicitly elevate the ODU offensive-transition/current-capability mechanism in its risk register. Final postprice review found that synthesis omission and applied existing policy before any publication tier. This is a timestamped late classification of frozen evidence, not new sporting inputs or a rewritten forecast." }