{ "created_utc": "2026-10-15T06:06:35.909513+00:00", "freeze_sha256": "8ceec36ab039c18d3e8b0cebcb4c1e9b0cccfadc10631ca21ed0e37c1dd53210", "scope": { "MLB": 2, "NFL": 1, "NCAAF": 3, "FBS": 3, "FCS": 0, "NBA": 2, "NHL": 11, "WNBA": 0, "NCAAM": 0, "MLS": 0, "UFC": 0, "UFC_cards": 0, "all_scope_events": 19, "numeric_events": 19, "partial_numeric_events": 0, "numeric_model_rows": 76, "future_events": 19, "elapsed_events": 0, "summary_text": "19 current events: MLB2 postseason, NFL1, FBS3, NBA2 preseason, NHL11 regular season. FCS, WNBA, NCAA men's basketball, MLS and UFC have no current events. All19 have four numeric configuration records." }, "games": [ { "id": "401908025", "sport": "MLB", "identity": { "id": "401908025", "date": "2026-10-15T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "5", "fullName": "Progressive Field", "address": { "city": "Cleveland", "state": "Ohio" }, "indoor": false }, "away": "30", "away_name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "Cleveland Guardians", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 4.210956790123457, 4.197800925925925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.210956790123457, 4.197800925925925 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.210956790123457, 4.197800925925925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 4.407407407407407, 4.216049382716049 ], "current_rates": [ 4.54320987654321, 4.012345679012346 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 3.9691358024691357, 4.006172839506172 ], "current_rates": [ 4.185185185185185, 4.117283950617284 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.07583912037037, "mean_margin_error": 4.15167824074074, "mean_total_error": 0.846161265432098, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "home": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.5327987643513405, 3.287588419261159 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.5327987643513405, 3.287588419261159 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.5327987643513405, 3.287588419261159 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4951, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-15T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "e47b22c6fbddb7756386292416d661b0f0e7012b06dade3af8908db20a009633" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.934227335845467, "mean_margin_error": 3.868454671690934, "mean_total_error": 0.7456307445596222, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "home": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 4.330246913580247, 4.098765432098766 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.330246913580247, 4.098765432098766 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.330246913580247, 4.098765432098766 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.9799382716049383, "mean_margin_error": 3.9598765432098766, "mean_total_error": 0.7993827160493829, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "home": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 4.330246913580247, 4.098765432098766 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.330246913580247, 4.098765432098766 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.330246913580247, 4.098765432098766 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.9799382716049383, "mean_margin_error": 3.9598765432098766, "mean_total_error": 0.7993827160493829, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "home": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "id": "alcs-starter-role", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional.", "resolution": "Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "Existing gates apply; no added arbitrary expected-score penalty.", "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "unresolved": true, "scope_rule": "Apply to both directions; do not silently lower frozen severity after viewing prices." }, { "id": "replacement-reference-conversion", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable.", "resolution": "Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero.", "effect_estimate": null, "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "unresolved": true, "scope_rule": "Apply to both directions; do not silently lower frozen severity after viewing prices." }, { "id": "mlb-model-disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Three registered engines disagree on score levels before price capture. Expected totals: Classic 8.408758, Primary 6.820387, Tighten Up ON 8.429012, Tighten Up OFF 8.429012. Signed home margins: Classic -0.013156, Primary -0.245210, Tighten Up ON -0.231481, Tighten Up OFF -0.231481. ON/OFF share arithmetic, not independent votes.", "resolution": "Preserve each frozen score; no averaging into another model. Apply market-specific opposition rule below after capture.", "effect_estimate": null, "unresolved": "CONDITIONAL_ON_DIRECTION_OPPOSITION", "markets": [ "moneyline", "run_line", "total" ], "scope_rule": "Using unchanged unrounded means and tolerance1e-9, count this one MEDIUM risk for a market if at least one registered engine favors each opposite direction. Moneyline: signs of home margins. Run line: signs of home margins plus captured average signed home line. Total: signs of totals minus captured average total. A zero/tie blocks unanimity but alone is not opposite-direction disagreement. No risk is counted for this category when all nonzero directions agree.", "tier_consequence": "Adds exactly one unresolved MEDIUM risk to each opposed market, regardless of model count. Two other unresolved MEDIUM risks plus this disagreement means three and market ineligible/PASS. Any existing HIGH risk independently prevents tier eligibility.", "no_added_score_penalty": true } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Tampa Bay Rays: Caminero/De Luca said fine after collision. Palacios righty lineup replaces Williamson; De Luca/Mullins CF pending. Mc Clanahan separate pitching absence. Cleveland Guardians: Official FAQ reports no injuries. Bailey projected return to Williams battery versus Hedges Game 2; De Lauter RF/Adell DH role switch.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current; home: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current. Primary uses 4951 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Full 2026 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean; no pitcher, park or lineup coefficient. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. Current batting-slot opportunity and bench branches are retained in the official reference-box ledger; unannounced lineups remain conditional.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Progressive Field; listed 2026-10-15T17:00Z. Official MLB matchup, time and postseason stage agree. Probable pitchers and batting opportunities reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401908025", "sport": "MLB", "away": "Tampa Bay Rays", "home": "Cleveland Guardians", "start_et": "2026-10-15T13:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T17:00Z", "venue": { "id": "5", "fullName": "Progressive Field", "address": { "city": "Cleveland", "state": "Ohio" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "stage": 3, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 1, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Scheduled", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 1:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.300475+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-14&endDate=2026-10-15" ], "context": [ "Official MLB matchup, time and postseason stage agree. Probable pitchers and batting opportunities reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "previous_game": { "id": "401908024", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "31", "fullName": "Tropicana Field", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Petersburg", "state": "Florida" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "Cleveland Guardians", "away_score": 1.0, "home": "30", "home_name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20740.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "previous_game": { "id": "401908024", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "31", "fullName": "Tropicana Field", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Petersburg", "state": "Florida" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "Cleveland Guardians", "away_score": 1.0, "home": "30", "home_name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20740.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/CLE/84,65/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:49.595586+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-15T05:16:23+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 13, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T13:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T14:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 66, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 2 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 11.11111111111111 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 62 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 14, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T14:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T15:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 3 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 11.666666666666666 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 59 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 15, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T15:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 68, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 3 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 12.222222222222221 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 60 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 16, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T17:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 70, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 4 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 12.777777777777779 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 60 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "official_event_id": 849818, "stage_label": "AL Championship Series Game 3" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:49.595586+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-15T05:16:23+00:00; periods: number: 13; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T13:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T14:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 66; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 2; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 11.11111111111111; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 62; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 14; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T14:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T15:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 3; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 11.666666666666666; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 59; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 15; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T15:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 68; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 3; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 12.222222222222221; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 60; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 16; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T17:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 70; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 4; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 12.777777777777779; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 60; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Sunny; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/CLE/84,65/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:49.595586+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-15T05:16:23+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 13, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T13:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T14:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 66, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 2 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 11.11111111111111 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 62 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 14, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T14:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T15:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 3 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 11.666666666666666 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 59 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 15, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T15:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 68, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 3 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 12.222222222222221 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 60 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 16, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T17:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 70, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 4 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 12.777777777777779 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 60 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "id": "alcs-starter-role", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional.", "resolution": "Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "Existing gates apply; no added arbitrary expected-score penalty.", "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "unresolved": true, "scope_rule": "Apply to both directions; do not silently lower frozen severity after viewing prices." }, { "id": "replacement-reference-conversion", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable.", "resolution": "Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero.", "effect_estimate": null, "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "unresolved": true, "scope_rule": "Apply to both directions; do not silently lower frozen severity after viewing prices." }, { "id": "mlb-model-disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Three registered engines disagree on score levels before price capture. Expected totals: Classic 8.408758, Primary 6.820387, Tighten Up ON 8.429012, Tighten Up OFF 8.429012. Signed home margins: Classic -0.013156, Primary -0.245210, Tighten Up ON -0.231481, Tighten Up OFF -0.231481. ON/OFF share arithmetic, not independent votes.", "resolution": "Preserve each frozen score; no averaging into another model. Apply market-specific opposition rule below after capture.", "effect_estimate": null, "unresolved": "CONDITIONAL_ON_DIRECTION_OPPOSITION", "markets": [ "moneyline", "run_line", "total" ], "scope_rule": "Using unchanged unrounded means and tolerance1e-9, count this one MEDIUM risk for a market if at least one registered engine favors each opposite direction. Moneyline: signs of home margins. Run line: signs of home margins plus captured average signed home line. Total: signs of totals minus captured average total. A zero/tie blocks unanimity but alone is not opposite-direction disagreement. No risk is counted for this category when all nonzero directions agree.", "tier_consequence": "Adds exactly one unresolved MEDIUM risk to each opposed market, regardless of model count. Two other unresolved MEDIUM risks plus this disagreement means three and market ineligible/PASS. Any existing HIGH risk independently prevents tier eligibility.", "no_added_score_penalty": true } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/CLE/84,65/forecast/hourly", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/bkn?size=small", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=200", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849813/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-14&endDate=2026-10-15", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2025&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2026&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://www.mlb.com/news/rays-vs-guardians-alcs-game-3-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup", "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/" ], "tu": { "id": "401908025", "sport": "MLB", "identity": { "id": "401908025", "date": "2026-10-15T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "5", "fullName": "Progressive Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Cleveland", "state": "Ohio" } }, "away": "30", "away_name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "Cleveland Guardians", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-mlb-v3-full-season", "formula": "Full 2026 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean; no pitcher, park or lineup coefficient", "away_score": 4.330246913580247, "home_score": 4.098765432098766, "unrounded_score": [ 4.330246913580247, 4.098765432098766 ], "legacy_internal_rounded_score": [ 4.33, 4.1 ], "rounding_note": "Original arithmetic retained without premature storage rounding, as current four-model standard requires. Half-point display only.", "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" } }, "terms": {}, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 0 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "home": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=200", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\slate-MLB.json", "sha256": "d3cfbbdd3c85809daf187b945a38d954d460ba29d4a3f1665340c34031ce3bdf" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json", "sha256": "c70abf9a4b2bb908d0f7ba5bef5db91b09f683c1388c61252bccce59549d22f9" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json", "sha256": "f1d5d83d823dce1bf1cad50b625bb3ad54d21e50fa91d3e569f575f328439ab0" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Final decision-useful availability or its supported scoring impact unresolved; point model probabilities uncalibrated.", "resolved": false } ], "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 1.5, "minimum_total_buffer": 1.5, "maximum_tiers": 2, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 1, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated joint score distribution; probabilities withheld" }, "football_review": null, "football_supplement": null, "offensive_review": [ { "sport": "MLB", "event_id": 849818, "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "OFFICIAL_PROJECTED", "ordered_starters": [ { "slot": 1, "player_id": 650490, "player": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.5, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player_id": 666018, "player": "Jonathan Aranda", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player_id": 691406, "player": "Junior Caminero", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player_id": 689414, "player": "Liam Hicks", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player_id": 683748, "player": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player_id": 802415, "player": "Chandler Simpson", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.5, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player_id": 676356, "player": "Jonny DeLuca", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.5, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player_id": 680700, "player": "Richie Palacios", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.5, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player_id": 670764, "player": "Taylor Walls", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.5, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] } ], "empirical_slot_PA_by_stage": { "D": { "n_games": 3, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 5, 4 ], "2": [ 4, 5, 4 ], "3": [ 4, 4, 4 ], "4": [ 4, 4, 4 ], "5": [ 4, 4, 4 ], "6": [ 3, 4, 4 ], "7": [ 3, 4, 3 ], "8": [ 3, 4, 3 ], "9": [ 3, 4, 3 ] } }, "L": { "n_games": 2, "slots": { "1": [ 5, 4 ], "2": [ 4, 4 ], "3": [ 4, 4 ], "4": [ 4, 4 ], "5": [ 4, 4 ], "6": [ 4, 3 ], "7": [ 4, 3 ], "8": [ 4, 3 ], "9": [ 4, 3 ] } }, "R": { "n_games": 7, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4 ], "2": [ 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4 ], "3": [ 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4 ], "4": [ 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4 ], "5": [ 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4 ], "6": [ 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4 ], "7": [ 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4 ], "8": [ 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 4 ], "9": [ 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3 ] } } }, "chosen_reference_stage": "L", "conditional_team_PA": 34.5, "opportunity_branches": [ { "incumbent": "Jonny DeLuca", "incumbent_id": 676356, "replacement": "Cedric Mullins", "replacement_id": 656775, "slot": 7, "affected_PA": 3.5, "position_chain": "CF choice unresolved", "status": "CONDITIONAL_NOT_CONFIRMED_ABSENCE", "offensive_adjustment": null, "calculation": "AffectedPA * regressedreplacementminusreference battingruns/PA; verified normalization/exactbaseline unavailable => unestimated, no OPS subtraction" }, { "incumbent": "Richie Palacios", "incumbent_id": 680700, "replacement": "Ben Williamson", "replacement_id": 810938, "slot": 8, "affected_PA": 3.5, "position_chain": "Palacios projectedvsRHP, normal platoon", "status": "CONDITIONAL_NOT_CONFIRMED_ABSENCE", "offensive_adjustment": null, "calculation": "AffectedPA * regressedreplacementminusreference battingruns/PA; verified normalization/exactbaseline unavailable => unestimated, no OPS subtraction" } ], "opponent_starter": "Gavin Williams", "opponent_starter_hand": "R", "bullpen_hand_exposure": "Unconfirmed; starterhand notallgame", "conversion": "Unestimated missing verified normalization and exactbaseline exposure" }, "reference_lineup": [ { "slot": 1, "player_id": 650490, "player": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.5, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player_id": 666018, "player": "Jonathan Aranda", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player_id": 691406, "player": "Junior Caminero", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player_id": 689414, "player": "Liam Hicks", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player_id": 683748, "player": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player_id": 802415, "player": "Chandler Simpson", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.5, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player_id": 676356, "player": "Jonny DeLuca", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.5, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player_id": 680700, "player": "Richie Palacios", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.5, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player_id": 670764, "player": "Taylor Walls", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.5, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "runs", "adjustment_units": "runs", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 4.210956790123457, 4.197800925925925 ], "Primary": [ 3.5327987643513405, 3.287588419261159 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.330246913580247, 4.098765432098766 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.330246913580247, 4.098765432098766 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "CONDITIONAL_REVIEW_NUMERIC_EFFECT_UNESTIMATED", "sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849813/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/roster/active", "https://www.mlb.com/news/rays-vs-guardians-alcs-game-3-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup" ], "findings": "Caminero/De Luca said fine after collision. Palacios righty lineup replaces Williamson; De Luca/Mullins CF pending. Mc Clanahan separate pitching absence.", "reference_date": "2026-10-14T00:00:00Z", "observed_reference_nine": [ { "player": { "id": 670764, "fullName": "Taylor Walls", "link": "/api/v1/people/670764", "boxscoreName": "Walls" }, "battingOrder": "900", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "stats": { "summary": "1-3 | K", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 1, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 1, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 1, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 3, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 3, "totalBases": 1, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 1, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 1, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "player": { "id": 802415, "fullName": "Chandler Simpson", "link": "/api/v1/people/802415", "boxscoreName": "Simpson" }, "battingOrder": "600", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "stats": { "summary": "1-3 | R", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 1, "airOuts": 1, "runs": 1, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 0, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 1, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 3, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 1, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 3, "totalBases": 1, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 2, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 1 } }, { "player": { "id": 676356, "fullName": "Jonny DeLuca", "link": "/api/v1/people/676356", "boxscoreName": "DeLuca" }, "battingOrder": "500", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "stats": { "summary": "2-4 | K", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 1, "airOuts": 0, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 1, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 2, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 4, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 4, "totalBases": 2, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 1, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "player": { "id": 689414, "fullName": "Liam Hicks", "link": "/api/v1/people/689414", "boxscoreName": "Hicks, L" }, "battingOrder": "800", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "stats": { "summary": "2-3 | 2 RBI", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 1, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 0, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 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"lastInitName": "D\u00edaz, Y", "initLastName": "Y D\u00edaz", "fullFMLName": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "fullLFMName": "D\u00edaz, Yandy", "strikeZoneTop": 3.228, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.629 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_NINE_SLOTS_PA_PLATOONS", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401908025", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 4.210956790123457, 4.197800925925925 ], "Primary": [ 3.5327987643513405, 3.287588419261159 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.330246913580247, 4.098765432098766 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.330246913580247, 4.098765432098766 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } }, { "sport": "MLB", "event_id": 849818, "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "OFFICIAL_PROJECTED", "ordered_starters": [ { "slot": 1, "player_id": 680757, "player": "Steven Kwan", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 5.0, "observed_range": [ 5, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player_id": 608070, "player": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.5, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player_id": 800050, "player": "Chase DeLauter", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.5, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player_id": 666176, "player": "Jo Adell", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.5, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player_id": 663993, "player": "Nathaniel Lowe", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.5, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player_id": 683953, "player": "Travis Bazzana", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player_id": 672275, "player": "Patrick Bailey", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player_id": 690984, "player": "Petey Halpin", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player_id": 677587, "player": "Brayan Rocchio", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] } ], "empirical_slot_PA_by_stage": { "D": { "n_games": 5, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "2": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 4 ], "3": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 4 ], "4": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 4 ], "5": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 3 ], "6": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 3 ], "7": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 3 ], "8": [ 3, 4, 5, 4, 3 ], "9": [ 3, 3, 5, 4, 3 ] } }, "L": { "n_games": 2, "slots": { "1": [ 5, 5 ], "2": [ 5, 4 ], "3": [ 5, 4 ], "4": [ 5, 4 ], "5": [ 5, 4 ], "6": [ 4, 4 ], "7": [ 4, 4 ], "8": [ 4, 4 ], "9": [ 4, 4 ] } }, "R": { "n_games": 5, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "2": [ 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "3": [ 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "4": [ 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "5": [ 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "6": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 4 ], "7": [ 3, 3, 5, 5, 4 ], "8": [ 3, 3, 5, 5, 4 ], "9": [ 3, 3, 5, 4, 4 ] } } }, "chosen_reference_stage": "L", "conditional_team_PA": 39.0, "opportunity_branches": [ { "incumbent": "Patrick Bailey", "incumbent_id": 672275, "replacement": "Austin Hedges", "replacement_id": 595978, "slot": 7, "affected_PA": 4.0, "position_chain": "Catching selection; DeLauter RF/Adell DH projected versusGame2", "status": "CONDITIONAL_NOT_CONFIRMED_ABSENCE", "offensive_adjustment": null, "calculation": "AffectedPA * regressedreplacementminusreference battingruns/PA; verified normalization/exactbaseline unavailable => unestimated, no OPS subtraction" } ], "opponent_starter": "Griffin Jax", "opponent_starter_hand": "R", "bullpen_hand_exposure": "Unconfirmed; starterhand notallgame", "conversion": "Unestimated missing verified normalization and exactbaseline exposure" }, "reference_lineup": [ { "slot": 1, "player_id": 680757, "player": "Steven Kwan", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 5.0, "observed_range": [ 5, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player_id": 608070, "player": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.5, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player_id": 800050, "player": "Chase DeLauter", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.5, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player_id": 666176, "player": "Jo Adell", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.5, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player_id": 663993, "player": "Nathaniel Lowe", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.5, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player_id": 683953, "player": "Travis Bazzana", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player_id": 672275, "player": "Patrick Bailey", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player_id": 690984, "player": "Petey Halpin", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player_id": 677587, "player": "Brayan Rocchio", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "runs", "adjustment_units": "runs", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 4.210956790123457, 4.197800925925925 ], "Primary": [ 3.5327987643513405, 3.287588419261159 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.330246913580247, 4.098765432098766 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.330246913580247, 4.098765432098766 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "CONDITIONAL_REVIEW_NUMERIC_EFFECT_UNESTIMATED", "sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849813/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/roster/active", "https://www.mlb.com/news/rays-vs-guardians-alcs-game-3-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup" ], "findings": "Official FAQ reports no injuries. Bailey projected return to Williams battery versus Hedges Game 2; De Lauter RF/Adell DH role switch.", "reference_date": "2026-10-14T00:00:00Z", "observed_reference_nine": [ { "player": { "id": 800050, "fullName": "Chase DeLauter", "link": "/api/v1/people/800050", "boxscoreName": "DeLauter" }, "battingOrder": "300", "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" }, "stats": { "summary": "1-2 | 2B, 2 BB, K", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 0, "runs": 0, "doubles": 1, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 1, "baseOnBalls": 2, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 1, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 2, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 4, "totalBases": 2, "rbi": 1, "leftOnBase": 1, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "player": { "id": 595978, "fullName": "Austin Hedges", "link": "/api/v1/people/595978", "boxscoreName": "Hedges" }, "battingOrder": "800", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "stats": { "summary": "0-1 | HBP", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 1, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 0, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 0, "hitByPitch": 1, "atBats": 1, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 2, "totalBases": 0, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 1, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 1, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "player": { "id": 663993, "fullName": "Nathaniel Lowe", "link": "/api/v1/people/663993", "boxscoreName": "Lowe, N" }, "battingOrder": "500", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "stats": { "summary": "0-4 | 2 K", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 1, "airOuts": 1, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 2, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 0, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 4, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 4, "totalBases": 0, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 0, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 1 } }, { "player": { "id": 683953, "fullName": "Travis Bazzana", "link": "/api/v1/people/683953", "boxscoreName": "Bazzana" }, "battingOrder": "600", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "stats": { "summary": "1-4", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 1, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 3, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 0, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 1, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 4, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 4, "totalBases": 1, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 0, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 1, "lineOuts": 1 } }, { "player": { "id": 677587, "fullName": "Brayan Rocchio", "link": "/api/v1/people/677587", "boxscoreName": "Rocchio" }, "battingOrder": "900", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "stats": { "summary": "0-4 | K", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 3, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 3, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 1, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 0, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 4, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 4, "totalBases": 0, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 3, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "player": { "id": 690984, "fullName": "Petey Halpin", "link": "/api/v1/people/690984", "boxscoreName": "Halpin" }, "battingOrder": "700", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "stats": { "summary": "1-3 | 2 K", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 0, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 2, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 1, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 3, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 3, "totalBases": 1, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 1, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "player": { "id": 666176, "fullName": "Jo Adell", "link": "/api/v1/people/666176", "boxscoreName": "Adell" }, "battingOrder": "400", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "stats": { "summary": "0-4 | K", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 2, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 3, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 1, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 0, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 4, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 4, "totalBases": 0, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 6, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 1 } }, { "player": { "id": 608070, "fullName": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "link": "/api/v1/people/608070", "boxscoreName": "Ram\u00edrez, Jo" }, "battingOrder": "200", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "stats": { "summary": "1-4 | SB", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 2, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 3, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 0, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 1, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 4, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 1, "stolenBasePercentage": "1.000", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 4, "totalBases": 1, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 3, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 1, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "player": { "id": 680757, "fullName": "Steven Kwan", "link": "/api/v1/people/680757", "boxscoreName": "Kwan" }, "battingOrder": "100", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "stats": { "summary": "2-5", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 1, "airOuts": 2, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 0, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 2, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 5, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 5, "totalBases": 2, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 0, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 2 } } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 542888, 595978, 608070, 656492, 663993, 666176, 668909, 670036, 671922, 672275, 676282, 676440, 677587, 677944, 680757, 681807, 681870, 682120, 682657, 682982, 683769, 683953, 690984, 694197, 800048, 800050 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 680757, "player": "Steven Kwan", "team_id": 114, "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "gamesPlayed": 122, "atBats": 480, "triples": 3, "avg": ".292", "babip": ".304", "doubles": 16, "runs": 83, "sacBunts": 2, "hits": 140, "sacFlies": 0, "caughtStealing": 5, "intentionalWalks": 0, "rbi": 44, "stolenBases": 12, "obp": ".368", "baseOnBalls": 53, "hitByPitch": 5, "ops": ".793", "totalBases": 204, "groundIntoDoublePlay": 5, "plateAppearances": 540, "strikeOuts": 51, "homeRuns": 14, "slg": ".425", "singles": 107 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 608070, "player": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "team_id": 114, "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "gamesPlayed": 158, "atBats": 620, "triples": 2, "avg": ".279", "babip": ".265", "doubles": 39, "runs": 114, "sacBunts": 0, "hits": 173, "sacFlies": 6, "caughtStealing": 7, "intentionalWalks": 12, "rbi": 118, "stolenBases": 41, "obp": ".335", "baseOnBalls": 54, "hitByPitch": 1, "ops": ".872", "totalBases": 333, "groundIntoDoublePlay": 9, "plateAppearances": 682, "strikeOuts": 82, "homeRuns": 39, "slg": ".537", "singles": 93 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 663993, "player": "Nathaniel Lowe", "team_id": 140, "team": "Texas Rangers", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "gamesPlayed": 140, "atBats": 486, "triples": 1, "avg": ".265", "babip": ".324", "doubles": 16, "runs": 62, "sacBunts": 0, "hits": 129, "sacFlies": 4, "caughtStealing": 0, "intentionalWalks": 1, "rbi": 69, "stolenBases": 2, "obp": ".361", "baseOnBalls": 71, "hitByPitch": 4, "ops": ".762", "totalBases": 195, "groundIntoDoublePlay": 9, "plateAppearances": 565, "strikeOuts": 125, "homeRuns": 16, "slg": ".401", "singles": 96 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 681807, "player": "David Fry", "team_id": 114, "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "gamesPlayed": 122, "atBats": 335, "triples": 1, "avg": ".263", "babip": ".307", "doubles": 18, "runs": 44, "sacBunts": 0, "hits": 88, "sacFlies": 4, "caughtStealing": 1, "intentionalWalks": 4, "rbi": 51, "stolenBases": 4, "obp": ".356", "baseOnBalls": 42, "hitByPitch": 9, "ops": ".804", "totalBases": 150, "groundIntoDoublePlay": 13, "plateAppearances": 392, "strikeOuts": 84, "homeRuns": 14, "slg": ".448", "singles": 55 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 672275, "player": "Patrick Bailey", "team_id": 137, "team": "San Francisco Giants", "num_teams": 1, "source": 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"/api/v1/teams/114" }, "player": { "id": 680757, "fullName": "Steven Kwan", "link": "/api/v1/people/680757", "firstName": "Steven", "lastName": "Kwan" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2022-04-07", "batSide": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "nameFirstLast": "Steven Kwan", "nameSlug": "steven-kwan-680757", "firstLastName": "Steven Kwan", "lastFirstName": "Kwan, Steven", "lastInitName": "Kwan, S", "initLastName": "S Kwan", "fullFMLName": "Steven Robert Kwan", "fullLFMName": "Kwan, Steven Robert", "strikeZoneTop": 3.023, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.525 }, { "id": 676440, "fullName": "Tanner Bibee", "link": "/api/v1/people/676440", "firstName": "Tanner", "lastName": "Bibee", "primaryNumber": "28", "birthDate": "1999-03-05", "currentAge": 27, "birthCity": "Mission Viejo", "birthStateProvince": "CA", "birthCountry": "USA", "height": "6' 2\"", "weight": 205, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "1", "name": "Pitcher", "type": "Pitcher", "abbreviation": "P" }, "useName": "Tanner", "useLastName": "Bibee", "middleName": "Hayes", "boxscoreName": "Bibee", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "draftYear": 2021, "pronunciation": "BUY-bee", "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2023-04-26", "batSide": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Tanner Bibee", "nameSlug": "tanner-bibee-676440", "firstLastName": "Tanner Bibee", "lastFirstName": "Bibee, Tanner", "lastInitName": "Bibee, T", "initLastName": "T Bibee", "fullFMLName": "Tanner Hayes Bibee", "fullLFMName": "Bibee, Tanner Hayes", "strikeZoneTop": 3.299, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.665 }, { "id": 682120, "fullName": "Tim Herrin", "link": "/api/v1/people/682120", "firstName": "Tim", "lastName": "Herrin", "primaryNumber": "29", "birthDate": "1996-10-08", "currentAge": 30, "birthCity": "Terre Haute", "birthStateProvince": "IN", "birthCountry": "USA", "height": "6' 6\"", "weight": 230, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "1", "name": "Pitcher", "type": "Pitcher", "abbreviation": "P" }, "useName": "Tim", "useLastName": "Herrin", "middleName": "Edward", "boxscoreName": "Herrin", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": false, "draftYear": 2018, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2023-04-02", "batSide": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "nameFirstLast": "Tim Herrin", "nameSlug": "tim-herrin-682120", "firstLastName": "Tim Herrin", "lastFirstName": "Herrin, Tim", "lastInitName": "Herrin, T", "initLastName": "T Herrin", "fullFMLName": "Tim Edward Herrin", "fullLFMName": "Herrin, Tim Edward", "strikeZoneTop": 3.478, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.755 }, { "id": 683953, "fullName": "Travis Bazzana", "link": "/api/v1/people/683953", "firstName": "Travis", "lastName": "Bazzana", "primaryNumber": "37", "birthDate": "2002-08-28", "currentAge": 24, "birthCity": "Hornsby", "birthStateProvince": "NSW", "birthCountry": "Australia", "height": "5' 11\"", "weight": 199, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "useName": "Travis", "useLastName": "Bazzana", "middleName": "William", "boxscoreName": "Bazzana", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "draftYear": 2024, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [ { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 86, "groundOuts": 34, "airOuts": 44, "doubles": 3, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 2, "strikeOuts": 41, "baseOnBalls": 17, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 27, "hitByPitch": 2, "avg": ".185", "atBats": 146, "obp": ".279", "slg": ".247", "ops": ".526", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 691, "plateAppearances": 165, "totalBases": 36, "rbi": 11, "leftOnBase": 77, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "babip": ".243", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.77", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "73.00" }, "team": { "id": 114, "name": "Cleveland Guardians", "link": "/api/v1/teams/114" }, "player": { "id": 683953, "fullName": "Travis Bazzana", "link": "/api/v1/people/683953", "firstName": "Travis", "lastName": "Bazzana" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vl", "description": "vs Left", "sortOrder": 73 }, "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" } }, { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 113, "groundOuts": 72, "airOuts": 87, "doubles": 19, "triples": 3, "homeRuns": 13, "strikeOuts": 66, "baseOnBalls": 39, "intentionalWalks": 1, "hits": 83, "hitByPitch": 5, "avg": ".274", "atBats": 303, "obp": ".361", "slg": ".485", "ops": ".846", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 4, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 1394, "plateAppearances": 352, "totalBases": 147, "rbi": 46, "leftOnBase": 116, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 5, "babip": ".306", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.83", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "23.31" }, "team": { "id": 114, "name": "Cleveland Guardians", "link": "/api/v1/teams/114" }, "player": { "id": 683953, "fullName": "Travis Bazzana", "link": "/api/v1/people/683953", "firstName": "Travis", "lastName": "Bazzana" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2026-04-28", "batSide": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Travis Bazzana", "nameSlug": "travis-bazzana-683953", "firstLastName": "Travis Bazzana", "lastFirstName": "Bazzana, Travis", "lastInitName": "Bazzana, T", "initLastName": "T Bazzana", "fullFMLName": "Travis Bazzana", "fullLFMName": "Bazzana, Travis ", "strikeZoneTop": 3.179, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.604 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_NINE_SLOTS_PA_PLATOONS", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401908025", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 4.210956790123457, 4.197800925925925 ], "Primary": [ 3.5327987643513405, 3.287588419261159 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.330246913580247, 4.098765432098766 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.330246913580247, 4.098765432098766 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians", "market": { "id": "401908025", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401908025", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.130710+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 165.0, "away_line_price": -202.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": -120.0, "under_price": -101.0, "home_ml": -134.0, "away_ml": 111.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.013155864197531564, "combined": 8.408757716049383, "spread_buffer": -1.5131558641975316, "total_difference": 1.908757716049383 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.013155864197531564, "combined": 8.408757716049383, "spread_buffer": -1.5131558641975316, "total_difference": 1.908757716049383 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.5131558641975316, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.5131558641975316, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "alcs-starter-role", "replacement-reference-conversion" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Tampa Bay Rays", "line": 1.5, "price": -202.0, "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.", "stressed_home_margin": 0.9868441358024684, "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.", "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.908757716049383, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.9087577160493829, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "alcs-starter-role", "replacement-reference-conversion" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Over", "line": 6.5, "price": -120.0, "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.", "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.408757716049383, "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.", "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.24521034509018147, "combined": 6.8203871836125, "spread_buffer": -1.7452103450901815, "total_difference": 0.3203871836124996 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.24521034509018147, "combined": 6.8203871836125, "spread_buffer": -1.7452103450901815, "total_difference": 0.3203871836124996 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.7452103450901815, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.7452103450901815, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "alcs-starter-role", "replacement-reference-conversion" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Tampa Bay Rays", "line": 1.5, "price": -202.0, "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. 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Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 0.3203871836124996, "base_floor_met": false, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": -0.6796128163875004, "same_side_after_one_run": false, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": false, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": false, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "alcs-starter-role", "replacement-reference-conversion" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "NO_EDGE", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Over", "line": 6.5, "price": -120.0, "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks do not all pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.", "stressed_total_one_run_only": 5.8203871836125, "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks do not all pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.", "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.23148148148148096, "combined": 8.429012345679013, "spread_buffer": -1.731481481481481, "total_difference": 1.9290123456790127 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.23148148148148096, "combined": 8.429012345679013, "spread_buffer": -1.731481481481481, "total_difference": 1.9290123456790127 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5, "base_buffer": 1.731481481481481, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.731481481481481, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "alcs-starter-role", "replacement-reference-conversion" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Tampa Bay Rays", "line": 1.5, "price": -202.0, "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Conservative ON does not promote unresolved medium availability risk and does not allow Free Picks.", "stressed_home_margin": 0.768518518518519, "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Conservative ON does not promote unresolved medium availability risk and does not allow Free Picks.", "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5, "base_buffer": 1.9290123456790127, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.9290123456790127, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "alcs-starter-role", "replacement-reference-conversion" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Over", "line": 6.5, "price": -120.0, "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Conservative ON does not promote unresolved medium availability risk and does not allow Free Picks.", "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.429012345679013, "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Conservative ON does not promote unresolved medium availability risk and does not allow Free Picks.", "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.23148148148148096, "combined": 8.429012345679013, "spread_buffer": -1.731481481481481, "total_difference": 1.9290123456790127 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.23148148148148096, "combined": 8.429012345679013, "spread_buffer": -1.731481481481481, "total_difference": 1.9290123456790127 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.731481481481481, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.731481481481481, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "alcs-starter-role", "replacement-reference-conversion" ], "promotion_allowed": true, "maximum_tier": "Free Pick", "final_state": "TIER ELIGIBLE", "production_decision": "ELIGIBLE / FREE PICK ONLY", "selection": "Tampa Bay Rays", "line": 1.5, "price": -202.0, "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Two unresolved MEDIUM risks require downgrade; optional Free Pick only outside Conservative Mode. Parent publication ranking remains separate.", "stressed_home_margin": 0.768518518518519, "state": "TIER ELIGIBLE", "decision": "ELIGIBLE / FREE PICK ONLY", "reasons": [ "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Two unresolved MEDIUM risks require downgrade; optional Free Pick only outside Conservative Mode. Parent publication ranking remains separate.", "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.9290123456790127, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.9290123456790127, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "alcs-starter-role", "replacement-reference-conversion" ], "promotion_allowed": true, "maximum_tier": "Free Pick", "final_state": "TIER ELIGIBLE", "production_decision": "ELIGIBLE / FREE PICK ONLY", "selection": "Over", "line": 6.5, "price": -120.0, "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Two unresolved MEDIUM risks require downgrade; optional Free Pick only outside Conservative Mode. Parent publication ranking remains separate.", "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.429012345679013, "state": "TIER ELIGIBLE", "decision": "ELIGIBLE / FREE PICK ONLY", "reasons": [ "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Two unresolved MEDIUM risks require downgrade; optional Free Pick only outside Conservative Mode. Parent publication ranking remains separate.", "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero." ] } }, "publication_status": "Tampa Bay +1.5 (-202) / Free Pick", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892506", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892506", "date": "2026-10-15T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1838", "fullName": "Scotiabank Arena", "address": { "city": "Toronto", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" }, "indoor": true }, "away": "2", "away_name": "Buffalo Sabres", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "21", "home_name": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.3290876242095755, 3.257181571815718 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.3290876242095755, 3.257181571815718 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.3290876242095755, 3.257181571815718 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 7, "current_weight": 0.25925925925925924, "prior_rates": [ 3.5121951219512195, 2.9390243902439024 ], "current_rates": [ 2.7142857142857144, 3.7142857142857144 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 7, "current_weight": 0.25925925925925924, "prior_rates": [ 3.0853658536585367, 3.6463414634146343 ], "current_rates": [ 3.4285714285714284, 3.2857142857142856 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0408536585365855, "mean_margin_error": 1.1651031894934332, "mean_total_error": 1.8578799249530955, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.524385, 5.5243850000000005 ], "home": [ 0.9999950000000002, 4.999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.5157470494388683, 3.232279635448676 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.5157470494388683, 3.232279635448676 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.5157470494388683, 3.232279635448676 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2853, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-15T00:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "52c34c3445f9a414a983487152c4386aef5a0f4df759d280912f7f17468318de" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0580661730553012, "mean_margin_error": 1.1735321999404547, "mean_total_error": 1.9050370803767076, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.524385, 5.5243850000000005 ], "home": [ 0.9999950000000002, 4.999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.524385, 2.999995 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.524385, 2.999995 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.524385, 2.999995 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.45121, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 7, "official_team_name": "Buffalo Sabres" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.07317, "pa": 3.59756, "official_team_id": 10, "official_team_name": "Toronto Maple Leafs" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.524385, 5.5243850000000005 ], "home": [ 0.9999950000000002, 4.999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.524385, 2.999995 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.524385, 2.999995 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.524385, 2.999995 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.45121, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 7, "official_team_name": "Buffalo Sabres" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.07317, "pa": 3.59756, "official_team_id": 10, "official_team_name": "Toronto Maple Leafs" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.524385, 5.5243850000000005 ], "home": [ 0.9999950000000002, 4.999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "BUF: Dahlin missed last game; Grzelcyk new IR compared with prior actual role. Power/Zellweger/Metsa/Crevier demonstrated defensive pool; Jones acquisition reviewed separately. TOR: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Scotiabank Arena; listed 2026-10-15T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892506", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Buffalo Sabres", "home": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1838", "fullName": "Scotiabank Arena", "address": { "city": "Toronto", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Buffalo Sabres", "previous_game": { "id": "401892490", "date": "2026-10-13T22:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1831", "fullName": "Bell Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Montreal", "state": "QC", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "2", "away_name": "Buffalo Sabres", "away_score": 3.0, "home": "10", "home_name": "Montreal Canadiens", "home_score": 4.0, "day": 20739.9375 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "previous_game": { "id": "401892500", "date": "2026-10-14T01:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "3093", "fullName": "Delta Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Salt Lake City", "state": "UT", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "21", "away_name": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "129764", "home_name": "Utah Mammoth", "home_score": 5.0, "day": 20740.041666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020108, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. 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"shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jack Quinn", "teamAbbrev": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 1141, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1141.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 57.05 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 693, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 693.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020092, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "McLeod", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MTL", "otTimeOnIce": 82, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 82.0, "playerId": 8480802, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 66, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 66.0, "shTimeOnIce": 103, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 103.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ryan McLeod", "teamAbbrev": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 862, "timeOnIcePerGame": 862.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 35.91666 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8479420, "player": "Tage Thompson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 992, "PP_seconds": 354, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479941, "player": "Justin Danforth", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 534, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8481522, "player": "Peyton Krebs", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 766, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8483500, "player": "Noah Ostlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 316, "SH_seconds": 36 }, { "player_id": 8481806, "player": "Louis Crevier", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 648, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8484305, "player": "Zach Metsa", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 806, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 92 }, { "player_id": 8482803, "player": "Olen Zellweger", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1415, "PP_seconds": 134, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483468, "player": "Jiri Kulich", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 862, "PP_seconds": 149, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482671, "player": "Owen Power", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1227, "PP_seconds": 354, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8484797, "player": "Konsta Helenius", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 751, "PP_seconds": 104, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482659, "player": "Josh Doan", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 904, "PP_seconds": 139, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478502, "player": "Dennis Gilbert", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 479, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 42 }, { "player_id": 8480807, "player": "Mattias Samuelsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1398, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 192 }, { "player_id": 8480064, "player": "Josh Norris", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 554, "PP_seconds": 148, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8484145, "player": "Zach Benson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 771, "PP_seconds": 318, "SH_seconds": 87 }, { "player_id": 8479359, "player": "Beck Malenstyn", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 529, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8482097, "player": "Jack Quinn", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 801, "PP_seconds": 340, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480802, "player": "Ryan McLeod", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 693, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 103 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14958, "PP_seconds": 2442, "SH_seconds": 1061 }, "conditional_branches": [], "return_branches": "Any return depends on current official clearance; prior actual role samples retained, future minutes unestimated.", "PP_units": "Unknown final units; official actual strength exposure retained, no roster-order inference", "line_combinations": "Latest actual official skaters and retained prior previews; October15 final lines not announced.", "OT_note": "Observed workload includes any OT; not a forecast of penalties or OT." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020092, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020092/boxscore", "playerId": 8484145, "name": { "default": "Z. Benson" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:36", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020092, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020092/boxscore", "playerId": 8480064, "name": { "default": "J. Norris" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:51", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020092, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020092/boxscore", "playerId": 8479941, "name": { "default": "J. 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Quinn" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:01", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020092, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020092/boxscore", "playerId": 8479359, "name": { "default": "B. Malenstyn" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:55", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020092, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020092/boxscore", "playerId": 8480802, "name": { "default": "R. McLeod" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:22", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020092, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020092/boxscore", "playerId": 8479420, "name": { "default": "T. Thompson" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:26", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020092, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020092/boxscore", "playerId": 8483500, "name": { "default": "N. Ostlund" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:40", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020092, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020092/boxscore", "playerId": 8482659, "name": { "default": "J. Doan" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:23", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020092, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020092/boxscore", "playerId": 8484797, "name": { "default": "K. Helenius" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:15", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020092, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020092/boxscore", "playerId": 8482803, "name": { "default": "O. Zellweger" }, "position": "D", "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "points": 2, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "25:49", "shifts": 34 }, { "event_id": 2026020092, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020092/boxscore", "playerId": 8480807, "name": { "default": "M. Samuelsson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "26:38", "shifts": 36 }, { "event_id": 2026020092, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020092/boxscore", "playerId": 8482671, "name": { "default": "O. Power" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "28:22", "shifts": 28 }, { "event_id": 2026020092, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020092/boxscore", "playerId": 8478502, "name": { "default": "D. Gilbert" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "08:41", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020092, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020092/boxscore", "playerId": 8481806, "name": { "default": "L. Crevier" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:43", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020092, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020092/boxscore", "playerId": 8484305, "name": { "default": "Z. Metsa" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:58", "shifts": 19 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.3290876242095755, 3.257181571815718 ], "Primary": [ 3.5157470494388683, 3.232279635448676 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.524385, 2.999995 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.524385, 2.999995 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020092/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480839/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8476891/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479982/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475722/landing" ], "findings": "Dahlin missed last game; Grzelcyk new IR compared with prior actual role. Power/Zellweger/Metsa/Crevier demonstrated defensive pool; Jones acquisition reviewed separately.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8484145, "player": "Zach Benson", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8475842, "player": "Sam Carrick", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8479941, "player": "Justin Danforth", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8482659, "player": "Josh Doan", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8484797, "player": "Konsta Helenius", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8482896, "player": "Tyson Kozak", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8481522, "player": "Peyton Krebs", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8483468, "player": "Jiri Kulich", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8479359, "player": "Beck Malenstyn", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8480802, "player": "Ryan McLeod", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8480064, "player": "Josh Norris", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8483500, "player": "Noah Ostlund", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8482097, "player": "Jack Quinn", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8479420, "player": "Tage Thompson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8481806, "player": "Louis Crevier", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8480839, "player": "Rasmus Dahlin", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8478502, "player": "Dennis Gilbert", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8476891, "player": "Matt Grzelcyk", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8484305, "player": "Zach Metsa", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8482671, "player": "Owen Power", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8480807, "player": "Mattias Samuelsson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8479982, "player": "Conor Timmins", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8482803, "player": "Olen Zellweger", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8481551, "player": "Colten Ellis", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8480045, "player": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8479312, "player": "Alex Lyon", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Buffalo Sabres", "abbreviation": "BUF", "player": "Jason Zucker", "player_id": "2593315", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T15:10Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/2/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.705983+00:00" }, { "team": "Buffalo Sabres", "abbreviation": "BUF", "player": "Rasmus Dahlin", "player_id": "4294163", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/2/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.705983+00:00" }, { "team": "Buffalo Sabres", "abbreviation": "BUF", "player": "Matt Grzelcyk", "player_id": "3069448", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-13T20:51Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/2/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.705983+00:00" }, { "team": "Buffalo Sabres", "abbreviation": "BUF", "player": "Conor Timmins", "player_id": "4233868", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:28Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/2/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.705983+00:00" }, { "team": "Buffalo Sabres", "abbreviation": "BUF", "player": "Alex Lyon", "player_id": "3654006", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T15:07Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/2/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.705983+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8475722, "incumbent": "Jason Zucker", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T15:10Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8479420, "player": "Tage Thompson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 992, "PP_seconds": 354, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479941, "player": "Justin Danforth", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 534, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8481522, "player": "Peyton Krebs", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 766, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8483500, "player": "Noah Ostlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 316, "SH_seconds": 36 }, { "player_id": 8481806, "player": "Louis Crevier", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 648, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8484305, "player": "Zach Metsa", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 806, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 92 }, { "player_id": 8482803, "player": "Olen Zellweger", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1415, "PP_seconds": 134, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483468, "player": "Jiri Kulich", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 862, "PP_seconds": 149, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482671, "player": "Owen Power", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1227, "PP_seconds": 354, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8484797, "player": "Konsta Helenius", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 751, "PP_seconds": 104, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482659, "player": "Josh Doan", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 904, "PP_seconds": 139, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478502, "player": "Dennis Gilbert", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 479, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 42 }, { "player_id": 8480807, "player": "Mattias Samuelsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1398, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 192 }, { "player_id": 8480064, "player": "Josh Norris", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 554, "PP_seconds": 148, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8484145, "player": "Zach Benson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 771, "PP_seconds": 318, "SH_seconds": 87 }, { "player_id": 8479359, "player": "Beck Malenstyn", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 529, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8482097, "player": "Jack Quinn", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 801, "PP_seconds": 340, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480802, "player": "Ryan McLeod", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 693, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 103 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8475722, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475722/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 32, "avgToi": "16:00", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.396226, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 73, "goals": 21, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 57, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 53, "powerPlayGoals": 11, "powerPlayPoints": 21, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.146853, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 143, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sabres" }, "teamName": { "default": "Buffalo Sabres", "fr": "Sabres de Buffalo" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Buffalo", "fr": "de Buffalo" } }, { "assists": 21, "avgToi": "15:37", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.387097, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 7, "gamesPlayed": 62, "goals": 24, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 23, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 45, "powerPlayGoals": 10, "powerPlayPoints": 16, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.1875, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 128, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sabres" }, "teamName": { "default": "Buffalo Sabres", "fr": "Sabres de Buffalo" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Buffalo", "fr": "de Buffalo" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "14:33", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.111111, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.111111, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 18, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sabres" }, "teamName": { "default": "Buffalo Sabres", "fr": "Sabres de Buffalo" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Buffalo", "fr": "de Buffalo" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" }, { "incumbent_id": 8480839, "incumbent": "Rasmus Dahlin", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8479420, "player": "Tage Thompson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 992, "PP_seconds": 354, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479941, "player": "Justin Danforth", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 534, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8481522, "player": "Peyton Krebs", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 766, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8483500, "player": "Noah Ostlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 316, "SH_seconds": 36 }, { "player_id": 8481806, "player": "Louis Crevier", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 648, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8484305, "player": "Zach Metsa", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 806, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 92 }, { "player_id": 8482803, "player": "Olen Zellweger", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1415, "PP_seconds": 134, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483468, "player": "Jiri Kulich", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 862, "PP_seconds": 149, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482671, "player": "Owen Power", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1227, "PP_seconds": 354, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8484797, "player": "Konsta Helenius", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 751, "PP_seconds": 104, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482659, "player": "Josh Doan", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 904, "PP_seconds": 139, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478502, "player": "Dennis Gilbert", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 479, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 42 }, { "player_id": 8480807, "player": "Mattias Samuelsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1398, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 192 }, { "player_id": 8480064, "player": "Josh Norris", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 554, "PP_seconds": 148, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8484145, "player": "Zach Benson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 771, "PP_seconds": 318, "SH_seconds": 87 }, { "player_id": 8479359, "player": "Beck Malenstyn", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 529, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8482097, "player": "Jack Quinn", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 801, "PP_seconds": 340, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480802, "player": "Ryan McLeod", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 693, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 103 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8480839, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480839/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 51, "avgToi": "24:14", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 73, "goals": 17, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 54, "plusMinus": 11, "points": 68, "powerPlayGoals": 5, "powerPlayPoints": 21, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.085, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 200, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sabres" }, "teamName": { "default": "Buffalo Sabres", "fr": "Sabres de Buffalo" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Buffalo", "fr": "de Buffalo" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "17:45", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "4 Nations", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 44, "shootingPctg": 0.33, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 3, "teamName": { "default": "Sweden" } }, { "assists": 55, "avgToi": "24:11", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 77, "goals": 19, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 76, "plusMinus": 18, "points": 74, "powerPlayGoals": 6, "powerPlayPoints": 22, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.097938, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 194, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sabres" }, "teamName": { "default": "Buffalo Sabres", "fr": "Sabres de Buffalo" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Buffalo", "fr": "de Buffalo" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "21:23", "faceoffWinningPctg": 1.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.05, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 20, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sweden", "cs": "\u0160v\u00e9dsko", "de": "Schweden", "es": "Suecia", "fi": "Ruotsi", "fr": "Su\u00e8de", "sk": "\u0160v\u00e9dsko", "sv": "Sverige" }, "teamName": { "default": "Sweden", "cs": "\u0160v\u00e9dsko", "de": "Schweden", "es": "Suecia", "fi": "Ruotsi", "fr": "Su\u00e8de", "sk": "\u0160v\u00e9dsko", "sv": "Sverige" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 10, "avgToi": "23:58", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 20, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 14, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 6, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.086957, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 46, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sabres" }, "teamName": { "default": "Buffalo Sabres", "fr": "Sabres de Buffalo" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Buffalo", "fr": "de Buffalo" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "23:38", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.105263, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 19, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sabres" }, "teamName": { "default": "Buffalo Sabres", "fr": "Sabres de Buffalo" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Buffalo", "fr": "de Buffalo" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8476891, "incumbent": "Matt Grzelcyk", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-13T20:51Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8479420, "player": "Tage Thompson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 992, "PP_seconds": 354, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479941, "player": "Justin Danforth", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 534, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8481522, "player": "Peyton Krebs", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 766, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8483500, "player": "Noah Ostlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 316, "SH_seconds": 36 }, { "player_id": 8481806, "player": "Louis Crevier", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 648, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8484305, "player": "Zach Metsa", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 806, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 92 }, { "player_id": 8482803, "player": "Olen Zellweger", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1415, "PP_seconds": 134, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483468, "player": "Jiri Kulich", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 862, "PP_seconds": 149, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482671, "player": "Owen Power", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1227, "PP_seconds": 354, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8484797, "player": "Konsta Helenius", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 751, "PP_seconds": 104, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482659, "player": "Josh Doan", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 904, "PP_seconds": 139, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478502, "player": "Dennis Gilbert", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 479, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 42 }, { "player_id": 8480807, "player": "Mattias Samuelsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1398, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 192 }, { "player_id": 8480064, "player": "Josh Norris", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 554, "PP_seconds": 148, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8484145, "player": "Zach Benson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 771, "PP_seconds": 318, "SH_seconds": 87 }, { "player_id": 8479359, "player": "Beck Malenstyn", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 529, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8482097, "player": "Jack Quinn", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 801, "PP_seconds": 340, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480802, "player": "Ryan McLeod", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 693, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 103 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8476891, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8476891/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 39, "avgToi": "20:37", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 40, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 15, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.010638, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 94, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Penguins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "fr": "Penguins de Pittsburgh" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Pittsburgh", "fr": "de Pittsburgh" } }, { "assists": 12, "avgToi": "16:58", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 69, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 32, "plusMinus": -9, "points": 12, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 68, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "14:27", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sabres" }, "teamName": { "default": "Buffalo Sabres", "fr": "Sabres de Buffalo" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Buffalo", "fr": "de Buffalo" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8479982, "incumbent": "Conor Timmins", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:28Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8479420, "player": "Tage Thompson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 992, "PP_seconds": 354, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479941, "player": "Justin Danforth", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 534, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8481522, "player": "Peyton Krebs", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 766, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8483500, "player": "Noah Ostlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 316, "SH_seconds": 36 }, { "player_id": 8481806, "player": "Louis Crevier", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 648, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8484305, "player": "Zach Metsa", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 806, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 92 }, { "player_id": 8482803, "player": "Olen Zellweger", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1415, "PP_seconds": 134, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483468, "player": "Jiri Kulich", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 862, "PP_seconds": 149, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482671, "player": "Owen Power", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1227, "PP_seconds": 354, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8484797, "player": "Konsta Helenius", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 751, "PP_seconds": 104, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482659, "player": "Josh Doan", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 904, "PP_seconds": 139, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478502, "player": "Dennis Gilbert", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 479, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 42 }, { "player_id": 8480807, "player": "Mattias Samuelsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1398, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 192 }, { "player_id": 8480064, "player": "Josh Norris", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 554, "PP_seconds": 148, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8484145, "player": "Zach Benson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 771, "PP_seconds": 318, "SH_seconds": 87 }, { "player_id": 8479359, "player": "Beck Malenstyn", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 529, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8482097, "player": "Jack Quinn", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 801, "PP_seconds": 340, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480802, "player": "Ryan McLeod", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 693, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 103 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8479982, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479982/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "16:19", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 51, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 24, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 8, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.039216, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 51, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } }, { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "18:43", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 17, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.055556, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 18, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Penguins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "fr": "Penguins de Pittsburgh" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Pittsburgh", "fr": "de Pittsburgh" } }, { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "18:46", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 39, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 18, "plusMinus": -8, "points": 8, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 44, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sabres" }, "teamName": { "default": "Buffalo Sabres", "fr": "Sabres de Buffalo" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Buffalo", "fr": "de Buffalo" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "16:48", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 13, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sabres" }, "teamName": { "default": "Buffalo Sabres", "fr": "Sabres de Buffalo" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Buffalo", "fr": "de Buffalo" } } ] } } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8475722, 8475842, 8476891, 8478502, 8479312, 8479359, 8479420, 8479941, 8479982, 8480045, 8480064, 8480802, 8480807, 8480839, 8481522, 8481551, 8481806, 8482097, 8482659, 8482671, 8482803, 8482896, 8483468, 8483500, 8484145, 8484305, 8484797 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 80, "points": 20, "skaterFullName": "Sam Carrick", "goals": 6, "evGoals": 5, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "shots": 84, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 14, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.07142, "evPoints": 17, "playerId": 8475842, "shGoals": 1, "shPoints": 3, "timeOnIcePerGame": 715.9125, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 40, "skaterFullName": "Matthew Grzelcyk", "goals": 1, "evGoals": 1, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "PIT", "shots": 94, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 39, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 15, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.01063, "evPoints": 25, "playerId": 8476891, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1236.7195, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 29, "points": 6, "skaterFullName": "Dennis Gilbert", "goals": 0, "evGoals": 0, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "BUF,OTT", "shots": 9, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 6, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.0, "evPoints": 6, "playerId": 8478502, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 628.6551, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 76, "points": 10, "skaterFullName": "Beck Malenstyn", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 4, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "shots": 67, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 6, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.0597, "evPoints": 10, "playerId": 8479359, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 631.8552, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 76, "points": 72, "skaterFullName": "Tage Thompson", "goals": 44, "evGoals": 37, "ppGoals": 7, "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "shots": 242, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 28, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 16, "gameWinningGoals": 6, "shootingPct": 0.18181, "evPoints": 56, "playerId": 8479420, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1125.3815, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 61, "points": 21, "skaterFullName": "Justin Danforth", "goals": 9, "evGoals": 8, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "shots": 94, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 12, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.09574, "evPoints": 19, "playerId": 8479941, "shGoals": 1, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 863.0655, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 68, "points": 15, "skaterFullName": "Conor Timmins", "goals": 3, "evGoals": 3, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "TOR,PIT", "shots": 69, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 12, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.04347, "evPoints": 15, "playerId": 8479982, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1015.3235, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 56, "points": 35, "skaterFullName": "Josh Norris", "goals": 21, "evGoals": 12, "ppGoals": 6, "teamAbbrevs": "OTT,BUF", "shots": 96, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 14, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 11, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "shootingPct": 0.21875, "evPoints": 20, "playerId": 8480064, "shGoals": 3, "shPoints": 4, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1100.7857, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 79, "points": 53, "skaterFullName": "Ryan McLeod", "goals": 20, "evGoals": 17, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "shots": 97, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 33, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.20618, "evPoints": 45, "playerId": 8480802, "shGoals": 3, "shPoints": 6, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1009.6075, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 62, "points": 14, "skaterFullName": "Mattias Samuelsson", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 4, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "shots": 52, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 10, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.07692, "evPoints": 13, "playerId": 8480807, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1158.2096, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 73, "points": 68, "skaterFullName": "Rasmus Dahlin", "goals": 17, "evGoals": 12, "ppGoals": 5, "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "shots": 200, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 51, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 21, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.085, "evPoints": 46, "playerId": 8480839, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1454.1369, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 81, "points": 28, "skaterFullName": "Peyton Krebs", "goals": 10, "evGoals": 8, "ppGoals": 1, "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "shots": 80, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 18, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.125, "evPoints": 26, "playerId": 8481522, "shGoals": 1, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 835.9135, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 32, "points": 4, "skaterFullName": "Louis Crevier", "goals": 3, 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}, { "evTimeOnIce": 4425, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 737.5, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Kulich", "otTimeOnIce": 133, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 66.5, "playerId": 8483468, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 280, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 46.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 12, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.0, "shifts": 114, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jiri Kulich", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 4717, "timeOnIcePerGame": 786.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.37719 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6106, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 872.28571, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Ostlund", "otTimeOnIce": 118, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 59.0, "playerId": 8483500, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1397, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 199.57142, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 208, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 29.71428, "shifts": 154, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Noah Ostlund", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 7711, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1101.57142, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.07142 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5898, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 842.57142, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Benson", "otTimeOnIce": 180, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 90.0, "playerId": 8484145, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1586, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 226.57142, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 692, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 98.85714, "shifts": 161, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Zach Benson", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 8176, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1168.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.7826 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4409, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 629.85714, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Metsa", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484305, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 924, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 132.0, "shifts": 118, "shiftsPerGame": 16.85714, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Zach Metsa", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 5333, "timeOnIcePerGame": 761.85714, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.19491 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4400, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 733.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Helenius", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484797, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 734, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 122.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 111, "shiftsPerGame": 18.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Konsta Helenius", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 5134, "timeOnIcePerGame": 855.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.25225 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892506", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.3290876242095755, 3.257181571815718 ], "Primary": [ 3.5157470494388683, 3.232279635448676 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.524385, 2.999995 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.524385, 2.999995 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020108, "team": "TOR", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 1003, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1003.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020102, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Roslovic", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "UTA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478458, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 36, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 36.0, "shTimeOnIce": 17, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 17.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jack Roslovic", "teamAbbrev": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 1056, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1056.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.8 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 812, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 812.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", 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"Gavin McKenna", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 897, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483546, "player": "Marshall Rifai", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 519, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 25 }, { "player_id": 8477426, "player": "Nick Paul", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 752, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8479442, "player": "Troy Stecher", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 801, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 198 }, { "player_id": 8475166, "player": "John Tavares", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 789, "PP_seconds": 294, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476927, "player": "Teddy Blueger", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 503, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 196 }, { "player_id": 8478178, "player": "Darren Raddysh", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1080, "PP_seconds": 298, "SH_seconds": 101 }, { "player_id": 8475171, "player": "Oliver Ekman-Larsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 998, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 62 }, { "player_id": 8476853, "player": "Morgan Rielly", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 881, "PP_seconds": 30, "SH_seconds": 58 }, { "player_id": 8484158, "player": "Easton Cowan", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 897, "PP_seconds": 25, "SH_seconds": 93 }, { "player_id": 8477939, "player": "William Nylander", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 980, "PP_seconds": 297, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8476931, "player": "Jake McCabe", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 880, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 210 }, { "player_id": 8479318, "player": "Auston Matthews", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 904, "PP_seconds": 298, "SH_seconds": 10 }, { "player_id": 8479520, "player": "Brandon Duhaime", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 478, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8483565, "player": "Nick Blankenburg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 641, "PP_seconds": 25, "SH_seconds": 15 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14558, "PP_seconds": 1776, "SH_seconds": 1340 }, "conditional_branches": [], "return_branches": "Any return depends on current official clearance; prior actual role samples retained, future minutes unestimated.", "PP_units": "Unknown final units; official actual strength exposure retained, no roster-order inference", "line_combinations": "Latest actual official skaters and retained prior previews; October15 final lines not announced.", "OT_note": "Observed workload includes any OT; not a forecast of penalties or OT." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8476925, "name": { "default": "C. Sissons" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:00", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8477426, "name": { "default": "N. Paul" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:01", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8479520, "name": { "default": "B. Duhaime" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:20", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8479318, "name": { "default": "A. Matthews" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "20:12", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8484158, "name": { "default": "E. Cowan" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:55", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8476927, "name": { "default": "T. Blueger", "cs": "T. Blugers", "sk": "T. Blugers" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:45", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8480893, "name": { "default": "K. Marchenko", "cs": "K. Mar\u010denko", "fi": "K. Martshenko", "sk": "K. Mar\u010denko" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:41", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8477939, "name": { "default": "W. Nylander" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:49", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8475166, "name": { "default": "J. Tavares" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "18:03", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8486067, "name": { "default": "G. McKenna" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:08", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8478458, "name": { "default": "J. Roslovic" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:36", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8483565, "name": { "default": "N. Blankenburg" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:21", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8476931, "name": { "default": "J. McCabe" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:21", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8479442, "name": { "default": "T. Stecher" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:50", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8478178, "name": { "default": "D. Raddysh" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "24:39", "shifts": 29 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8476853, "name": { "default": "M. Rielly" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:09", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8483546, "name": { "default": "M. Rifai" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:04", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8475171, "name": { "default": "O. Ekman-Larsson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:40", "shifts": 26 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.3290876242095755, 3.257181571815718 ], "Primary": [ 3.5157470494388683, 3.232279635448676 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.524385, 2.999995 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.524385, 2.999995 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479772/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475690/landing" ], "findings": "Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8476927, "player": "Teddy Blueger", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8484158, "player": "Easton Cowan", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8479520, "player": "Brandon Duhaime", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8480870, "player": "Bo Groulx", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8479772, "player": "Zack MacEwen", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8480893, "player": "Kirill Marchenko", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8479318, "player": "Auston Matthews", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8486067, "player": "Gavin McKenna", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8477939, "player": "William Nylander", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8477426, "player": "Nick Paul", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8478458, "player": "Jack Roslovic", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8476925, "player": "Colton Sissons", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8475166, "player": "John Tavares", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8477425, "player": "Miles Wood", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8483565, "player": "Nick Blankenburg", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8475171, "player": "Oliver Ekman-Larsson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8476931, "player": "Jake McCabe", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8478178, "player": "Darren Raddysh", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8476853, "player": "Morgan Rielly", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8483546, "player": "Marshall Rifai", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8479442, "player": "Troy Stecher", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8475690, "player": "Chris Tanev", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8475683, "player": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8476932, "player": "Anthony Stolarz", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "abbreviation": "TOR", "player": "Zack MacEwen", "player_id": "4063569", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-07-01T22:34Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/21/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.125989+00:00" }, { "team": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "abbreviation": "TOR", "player": "Chris Tanev", "player_id": "5592", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-11T21:20Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/21/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.125989+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8479772, "incumbent": "Zack MacEwen", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-07-01T22:34Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478458, "player": "Jack Roslovic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1003, "PP_seconds": 36, "SH_seconds": 17 }, { "player_id": 8480893, "player": "Kirill Marchenko", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 812, "PP_seconds": 309, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476925, "player": "Colton Sissons", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 743, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 157 }, { "player_id": 8486067, "player": "Gavin McKenna", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 897, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483546, "player": "Marshall Rifai", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 519, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 25 }, { "player_id": 8477426, "player": "Nick Paul", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 752, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8479442, "player": "Troy Stecher", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 801, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 198 }, { "player_id": 8475166, "player": "John Tavares", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 789, "PP_seconds": 294, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476927, "player": "Teddy Blueger", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 503, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 196 }, { "player_id": 8478178, "player": "Darren Raddysh", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1080, "PP_seconds": 298, "SH_seconds": 101 }, { "player_id": 8475171, "player": "Oliver Ekman-Larsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 998, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 62 }, { "player_id": 8476853, "player": "Morgan Rielly", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 881, "PP_seconds": 30, "SH_seconds": 58 }, { "player_id": 8484158, "player": "Easton Cowan", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 897, "PP_seconds": 25, "SH_seconds": 93 }, { "player_id": 8477939, "player": "William Nylander", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 980, "PP_seconds": 297, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8476931, "player": "Jake McCabe", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 880, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 210 }, { "player_id": 8479318, "player": "Auston Matthews", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 904, "PP_seconds": 298, "SH_seconds": 10 }, { "player_id": 8479520, "player": "Brandon Duhaime", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 478, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8483565, "player": "Nick Blankenburg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 641, "PP_seconds": 25, "SH_seconds": 15 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8479772, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479772/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "7:46", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.428571, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 21, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 21, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.076923, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 26, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 9, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 23, "goals": 7, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 29, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 16, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Belleville Senators" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "6:20", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "teamName": { "default": "New Jersey Devils", "fr": "Devils du New Jersey" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "5:25", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8475690, "incumbent": "Chris Tanev", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-11T21:20Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478458, "player": "Jack Roslovic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1003, "PP_seconds": 36, "SH_seconds": 17 }, { "player_id": 8480893, "player": "Kirill Marchenko", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 812, "PP_seconds": 309, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476925, "player": "Colton Sissons", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 743, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 157 }, { "player_id": 8486067, "player": "Gavin McKenna", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 897, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483546, "player": "Marshall Rifai", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 519, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 25 }, { "player_id": 8477426, "player": "Nick Paul", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 752, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8479442, "player": "Troy Stecher", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 801, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 198 }, { "player_id": 8475166, "player": "John Tavares", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 789, "PP_seconds": 294, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476927, "player": "Teddy Blueger", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 503, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 196 }, { "player_id": 8478178, "player": "Darren Raddysh", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1080, "PP_seconds": 298, "SH_seconds": 101 }, { "player_id": 8475171, "player": "Oliver Ekman-Larsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 998, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 62 }, { "player_id": 8476853, "player": "Morgan Rielly", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 881, "PP_seconds": 30, "SH_seconds": 58 }, { "player_id": 8484158, "player": "Easton Cowan", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 897, "PP_seconds": 25, "SH_seconds": 93 }, { "player_id": 8477939, "player": "William Nylander", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 980, "PP_seconds": 297, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8476931, "player": "Jake McCabe", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 880, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 210 }, { "player_id": 8479318, "player": "Auston Matthews", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 904, "PP_seconds": 298, "SH_seconds": 10 }, { "player_id": 8479520, "player": "Brandon Duhaime", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 478, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8483565, "player": "Nick Blankenburg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 641, "PP_seconds": 25, "SH_seconds": 15 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8475690, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475690/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 15, "avgToi": "19:45", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 75, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 24, "plusMinus": 31, "points": 18, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.069767, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 43, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "19:32", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.333333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "17:58", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 11, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 8, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 8, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "16:51", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } } ] } } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8475166, 8475171, 8475683, 8475690, 8476853, 8476925, 8476927, 8476931, 8476932, 8477425, 8477426, 8477939, 8478178, 8478458, 8479318, 8479442, 8479520, 8479772, 8480870, 8480893, 8483546, 8483565, 8484158, 8486067 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 75, "points": 74, "skaterFullName": "John Tavares", "goals": 38, "evGoals": 26, "ppGoals": 12, "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "shots": 200, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 36, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 20, "gameWinningGoals": 8, "shootingPct": 0.19, "evPoints": 54, "playerId": 8475166, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1093.5333, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 77, "points": 29, "skaterFullName": "Oliver Ekman-Larsson", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 2, "ppGoals": 2, "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "shots": 118, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 25, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 4, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.03389, "evPoints": 25, "playerId": 8475171, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1264.1168, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 75, "points": 18, "skaterFullName": "Chris Tanev", "goals": 3, "evGoals": 3, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "shots": 43, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 15, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.06976, "evPoints": 17, "playerId": 8475690, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1184.96, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 41, "skaterFullName": "Morgan Rielly", "goals": 7, "evGoals": 6, "ppGoals": 1, "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "shots": 126, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 34, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 14, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.05555, "evPoints": 26, "playerId": 8476853, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1283.317, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 72, "points": 21, "skaterFullName": "Colton Sissons", "goals": 7, "evGoals": 7, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "shots": 80, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 14, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.0875, "evPoints": 20, "playerId": 8476925, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 861.5416, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 26, "skaterFullName": "Teddy Blueger", "goals": 8, "evGoals": 8, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "VAN", "shots": 94, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 18, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.0851, "evPoints": 26, "playerId": 8476927, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 859.0365, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 66, "points": 23, "skaterFullName": "Jake McCabe", "goals": 2, "evGoals": 2, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "shots": 74, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 21, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.02702, "evPoints": 22, "playerId": 8476931, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1290.7575, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 37, "points": 8, "skaterFullName": "Miles Wood", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 4, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "COL", "shots": 60, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 4, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.06666, "evPoints": 8, "playerId": 8477425, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 681.2972, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 76, "points": 41, "skaterFullName": "Nick Paul", "goals": 22, "evGoals": 20, "ppGoals": 2, "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "shots": 141, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 19, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 5, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.15602, "evPoints": 35, "playerId": 8477426, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 986.5657, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 84, "skaterFullName": "William Nylander", "goals": 45, "evGoals": 33, "ppGoals": 12, "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "shots": 253, "otGoals": 2, "assists": 39, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 30, "gameWinningGoals": 8, "shootingPct": 0.17786, "evPoints": 54, "playerId": 8477939, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1170.5731, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 73, "points": 37, "skaterFullName": "Darren Raddysh", "goals": 6, "evGoals": 4, "ppGoals": 2, "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "shots": 108, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 31, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 9, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.05555, "evPoints": 28, "playerId": 8478178, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1037.9863, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 81, "points": 39, "skaterFullName": "Jack Roslovic", "goals": 22, "evGoals": 21, "ppGoals": 1, "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "shots": 139, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 17, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.15827, "evPoints": 37, "playerId": 8478458, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 829.2716, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 67, "points": 78, "skaterFullName": "Auston Matthews", "goals": 33, "evGoals": 21, "ppGoals": 10, "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "shots": 261, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 45, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 25, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.12643, "evPoints": 51, "playerId": 8479318, "shGoals": 2, "shPoints": 2, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1228.3283, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 66, "points": 7, "skaterFullName": "Troy Stecher", "goals": 3, "evGoals": 3, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "shots": 55, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 4, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.05454, "evPoints": 7, "playerId": 8479442, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 832.409, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": 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897.57142, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Roslovic", "otTimeOnIce": 121, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 60.5, "playerId": 8478458, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 670, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 95.71428, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 18, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.57142, "shifts": 140, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jack Roslovic", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 6971, "timeOnIcePerGame": 995.85714, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.79285 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7242, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1034.57142, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Matthews", "otTimeOnIce": 346, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 173.0, "playerId": 8479318, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1747, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 249.57142, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 218, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 31.14285, "shifts": 155, "shiftsPerGame": 22.14285, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Auston Matthews", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 9207, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1315.28571, "timeOnIcePerShift": 59.4 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6126, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 875.14285, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Stecher", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8479442, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 14, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1218, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 174.0, "shifts": 163, "shiftsPerGame": 23.28571, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Troy Stecher", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 7358, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1051.14285, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.1411 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3468, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 495.42857, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Duhaime", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8479520, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 15, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.14285, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1158, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 165.42857, "shifts": 115, "shiftsPerGame": 16.42857, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Brandon Duhaime", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 4641, "timeOnIcePerGame": 663.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.35652 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 325, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 325.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "MacEwen", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479772, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 9, "shiftsPerGame": 9.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Zack MacEwen", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 325, "timeOnIcePerGame": 325.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 36.11111 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2268, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 453.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Groulx", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480870, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 128, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 25.6, "shifts": 52, "shiftsPerGame": 10.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Bo Groulx", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 2396, "timeOnIcePerGame": 479.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.07692 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6356, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 908.0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Marchenko", "otTimeOnIce": 146, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 73.0, "playerId": 8480893, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1643, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 234.71428, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 143, "shiftsPerGame": 20.42857, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Kirill Marchenko", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 7999, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1142.71428, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.93706 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 519, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 519.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Rifai", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483546, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 25, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 25.0, "shifts": 13, "shiftsPerGame": 13.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Marshall Rifai", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 544, "timeOnIcePerGame": 544.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.84615 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1558, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 779.0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Blankenburg", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483565, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 79, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 39.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 15, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.5, "shifts": 39, "shiftsPerGame": 19.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nick Blankenburg", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 1652, "timeOnIcePerGame": 826.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.35897 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5546, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 792.28571, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Cowan", "otTimeOnIce": 124, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 62.0, "playerId": 8484158, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 515, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 73.57142, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 210, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 30.0, "shifts": 135, "shiftsPerGame": 19.28571, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Easton Cowan", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 6271, "timeOnIcePerGame": 895.85714, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.45185 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5325, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 760.71428, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "McKenna", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8486067, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 968, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 138.28571, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 6, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.85714, "shifts": 123, "shiftsPerGame": 17.57142, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Gavin McKenna", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 6299, "timeOnIcePerGame": 899.85714, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.21138 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892506", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.3290876242095755, 3.257181571815718 ], "Primary": [ 3.5157470494388683, 3.232279635448676 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.524385, 2.999995 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.524385, 2.999995 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs", "market": { "id": "401892506", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892506", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.130710+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.477387+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 200.0, "away_line_price": -245.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": -122.0, "under_price": 102.0, "home_ml": -118.0, "away_ml": -102.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.0719060523938575, "combined": 6.5862691960252935, "spread_buffer": -1.5719060523938575, "total_difference": 0.08626919602529348 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.0719060523938575, "combined": 6.5862691960252935, "spread_buffer": -1.5719060523938575, "total_difference": 0.08626919602529348 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.28346741399019226, "combined": 6.748026684887544, "spread_buffer": -1.7834674139901923, "total_difference": 0.2480266848875443 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.28346741399019226, "combined": 6.748026684887544, "spread_buffer": -1.7834674139901923, "total_difference": 0.2480266848875443 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.5243899999999999, "combined": 6.524380000000001, "spread_buffer": -2.02439, "total_difference": 0.024380000000000734 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.5243899999999999, "combined": 6.524380000000001, "spread_buffer": -2.02439, "total_difference": 0.024380000000000734 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.5243899999999999, "combined": 6.524380000000001, "spread_buffer": -2.02439, "total_difference": 0.024380000000000734 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.5243899999999999, "combined": 6.524380000000001, "spread_buffer": -2.02439, "total_difference": 0.024380000000000734 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892507", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892507", "date": "2026-10-15T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" }, "indoor": true }, "away": "12", "away_name": "New York Islanders", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "14", "home_name": "Ottawa Senators", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.8212181224376347, 3.163390313390313 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8212181224376347, 3.163390313390313 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8212181224376347, 3.163390313390313 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 2.841463414634146, 2.9390243902439024 ], "current_rates": [ 3.1666666666666665, 2.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 7, "current_weight": 0.25925925925925924, "prior_rates": [ 3.3902439024390243, 3.0 ], "current_rates": [ 3.0, 2.7142857142857144 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0408536585365855, "mean_margin_error": 1.1651031894934332, "mean_total_error": 1.8578799249530955, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8902399999999999, 4.89024 ], "home": [ 1.1158450000000002, 5.115845 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.6710626185868027, 3.1297334800408185 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.6710626185868027, 3.1297334800408185 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.6710626185868027, 3.1297334800408185 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2853, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-15T00:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "52c34c3445f9a414a983487152c4386aef5a0f4df759d280912f7f17468318de" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0580661730553012, "mean_margin_error": 1.1735321999404547, "mean_total_error": 1.9050370803767076, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8902399999999999, 4.89024 ], "home": [ 1.1158450000000002, 5.115845 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.89024, 3.115845 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.89024, 3.115845 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.89024, 3.115845 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 2, "official_team_name": "New York Islanders" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.35365, "pa": 2.9878, "official_team_id": 9, "official_team_name": "Ottawa Senators" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8902399999999999, 4.89024 ], "home": [ 1.1158450000000002, 5.115845 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.89024, 3.115845 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.89024, 3.115845 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.89024, 3.115845 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "NYI: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. OTT: Greig strain/early exit confirmed by coach; conditional replacement branch. Eklund/Zub unavailable; Sanderson DTD conditional PP share.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Canadian Tire Centre; listed 2026-10-15T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892507", "sport": "NHL", "away": "New York Islanders", "home": "Ottawa Senators", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "New York Islanders", "previous_game": { "id": "401892495", "date": "2026-10-13T23:45Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "7226", "fullName": "UBS Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Elmont", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "22", "away_name": "Vancouver Canucks", "away_score": 2.0, "home": "12", "home_name": "New York Islanders", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20739.989583333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Ottawa Senators", "previous_game": { "id": "401892494", "date": "2026-10-13T23:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "19", "away_name": "St. Louis Blues", "away_score": 7.0, "home": "14", "home_name": "Ottawa Senators", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20739.979166666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. 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Pal\u00e1t" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:44", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020097, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020097/boxscore", "playerId": 8481601, "name": { "default": "S. Holmstrom", "cs": "S. Holmstr\u00f6m", "fi": "S. Holmstr\u00f6m", "sk": "S. Holmstr\u00f6m", "sv": "S. Holmstr\u00f6m" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:15", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020097, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020097/boxscore", "playerId": 8476917, "name": { "default": "A. Pelech" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:56", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020097, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020097/boxscore", "playerId": 8482516, "name": { "default": "M. Kessel" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:51", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020097, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020097/boxscore", "playerId": 8477506, "name": { "default": "R. Pulock" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:10", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020097, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020097/boxscore", "playerId": 8479378, "name": { "default": "L. Stanley" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:44", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020097, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020097/boxscore", "playerId": 8485366, "name": { "default": "M. Schaefer" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "25:23", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020097, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020097/boxscore", "playerId": 8477950, "name": { "default": "T. DeAngelo" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:02", "shifts": 20 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.8212181224376347, 3.163390313390313 ], "Primary": [ 2.6710626185868027, 3.1297334800408185 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.89024, 3.115845 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.89024, 3.115845 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020097/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8481014/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478445/landing" ], "findings": "Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8475231, "player": "Casey Cizikas", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8477407, "player": "Anthony Duclair", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8485388, "player": "Victor Eklund", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8482476, "player": "Emil Heineman", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8481601, "player": "Simon Holmstrom", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8477500, "player": "Bo Horvat", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8481711, "player": "Matias Maccelli", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8481237, "player": "Kyle MacLean", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8476419, "player": "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8476292, "player": "Ondrej Palat", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8475151, "player": "Kyle Palmieri", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8484221, "player": "Calum Ritchie", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8475170, "player": "Brayden Schenn", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8477950, "player": "Tony DeAngelo", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8482516, "player": "Matthew Kessel", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8476429, "player": "Scott Mayfield", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8476917, "player": "Adam Pelech", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8477506, "player": "Ryan Pulock", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8481014, "player": "Alexander Romanov", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8485366, "player": "Matthew Schaefer", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8479378, "player": "Logan Stanley", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8478009, "player": "Ilya Sorokin", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8473575, "player": "Semyon Varlamov", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "New York Islanders", "abbreviation": "NYI", "player": "Mathew Barzal", "player_id": "3899946", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T16:57Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/12/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.944025+00:00" }, { "team": "New York Islanders", "abbreviation": "NYI", "player": "Alexander Romanov", "player_id": "4587854", "injuries": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-07T17:37Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/12/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.944025+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8478445, "incumbent": "Mathew Barzal", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T16:57Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8481711, "player": "Matias Maccelli", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 679, "PP_seconds": 247, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477407, "player": "Anthony Duclair", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 650, "PP_seconds": 18, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479378, "player": "Logan Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1088, "PP_seconds": 27, "SH_seconds": 129 }, { "player_id": 8485366, "player": "Matthew Schaefer", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1208, "PP_seconds": 305, "SH_seconds": 10 }, { "player_id": 8477500, "player": "Bo Horvat", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 768, "PP_seconds": 295, "SH_seconds": 126 }, { "player_id": 8476292, "player": "Ondrej Palat", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 694, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 130 }, { "player_id": 8476917, "player": "Adam Pelech", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 872, "PP_seconds": 55, "SH_seconds": 269 }, { "player_id": 8484221, "player": "Calum Ritchie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 831, "PP_seconds": 27, "SH_seconds": 19 }, { "player_id": 8475170, "player": "Brayden Schenn", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 723, "PP_seconds": 269, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8476419, "player": "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 683, "PP_seconds": 55, "SH_seconds": 161 }, { "player_id": 8477950, "player": "Tony DeAngelo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1005, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482516, "player": "Matthew Kessel", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 663, "PP_seconds": 27, "SH_seconds": 141 }, { "player_id": 8475151, "player": "Kyle Palmieri", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 761, "PP_seconds": 243, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475231, "player": "Casey Cizikas", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 573, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 171 }, { "player_id": 8481601, "player": "Simon Holmstrom", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 640, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 154 }, { "player_id": 8477506, "player": "Ryan Pulock", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 862, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 348 }, { "player_id": 8482476, "player": "Emil Heineman", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 631, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8485388, "player": "Victor Eklund", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 805, "PP_seconds": 24, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8478445, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478445/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 14, "avgToi": "20:21", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.423077, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 30, "goals": 6, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 10, "points": 20, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.076923, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 78, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Islanders" }, "teamName": { "default": "New York Islanders", "fr": "Islanders de New York" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New York", "fr": "de New York" } }, { "assists": 53, "avgToi": "20:39", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.397727, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 81, "goals": 19, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 2, "pim": 61, "plusMinus": 10, "points": 72, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 20, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.103261, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 184, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Islanders" }, "teamName": { "default": "New York Islanders", "fr": "Islanders de New York" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New York", "fr": "de New York" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" }, { "incumbent_id": 8481014, "incumbent": "Alexander Romanov", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-07T17:37Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8481711, "player": "Matias Maccelli", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 679, "PP_seconds": 247, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477407, "player": "Anthony Duclair", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 650, "PP_seconds": 18, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479378, "player": "Logan Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1088, "PP_seconds": 27, "SH_seconds": 129 }, { "player_id": 8485366, "player": "Matthew Schaefer", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1208, "PP_seconds": 305, "SH_seconds": 10 }, { "player_id": 8477500, "player": "Bo Horvat", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 768, "PP_seconds": 295, "SH_seconds": 126 }, { "player_id": 8476292, "player": "Ondrej Palat", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 694, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 130 }, { "player_id": 8476917, "player": "Adam Pelech", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 872, "PP_seconds": 55, "SH_seconds": 269 }, { "player_id": 8484221, "player": "Calum Ritchie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 831, "PP_seconds": 27, "SH_seconds": 19 }, { "player_id": 8475170, "player": "Brayden Schenn", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 723, "PP_seconds": 269, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8476419, "player": "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 683, "PP_seconds": 55, "SH_seconds": 161 }, { "player_id": 8477950, "player": "Tony DeAngelo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1005, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482516, "player": "Matthew Kessel", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 663, "PP_seconds": 27, "SH_seconds": 141 }, { "player_id": 8475151, "player": "Kyle Palmieri", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 761, "PP_seconds": 243, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475231, "player": "Casey Cizikas", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 573, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 171 }, { "player_id": 8481601, "player": "Simon Holmstrom", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 640, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 154 }, { "player_id": 8477506, "player": "Ryan Pulock", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 862, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 348 }, { "player_id": 8482476, "player": "Emil Heineman", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 631, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8485388, "player": "Victor Eklund", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 805, "PP_seconds": 24, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8481014, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8481014/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 16, "avgToi": "22:18", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 64, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 20, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 20, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.04, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 100, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Islanders" }, "teamName": { "default": "New York Islanders", "fr": "Islanders de New York" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New York", "fr": "de New York" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "19:27", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 15, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 17, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Islanders" }, "teamName": { "default": "New York Islanders", "fr": "Islanders de New York" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New York", "fr": "de New York" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "16:34", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Islanders" }, "teamName": { "default": "New York Islanders", "fr": "Islanders de New York" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New York", "fr": 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"gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Ritchie", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484221, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 535, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 89.16666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 23, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.83333, "shifts": 105, "shiftsPerGame": 17.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Calum Ritchie", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 5178, "timeOnIcePerGame": 863.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.31428 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7590, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1265.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Schaefer", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8485366, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1506, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 251.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 55, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 9.16666, "shifts": 160, "shiftsPerGame": 26.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Matthew Schaefer", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 9151, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1525.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 57.19375 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4342, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 723.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Eklund", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8485388, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 492, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 82.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 101, "shiftsPerGame": 16.83333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Victor Eklund", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 4834, "timeOnIcePerGame": 805.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.86138 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892507", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.8212181224376347, 3.163390313390313 ], "Primary": [ 2.6710626185868027, 3.1297334800408185 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.89024, 3.115845 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.89024, 3.115845 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020109, "team": "OTT", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 552, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 552.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020096, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Donovan", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483435, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 13, "shiftsPerGame": 13.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jorian Donovan", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 552, "timeOnIcePerGame": 552.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.46153 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 782, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 782.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", 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"lastName": "Burakovsky", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477444, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 215, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 215.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Andre Burakovsky", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 893, "timeOnIcePerGame": 893.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.65 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 595, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 595.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020096, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Halliday", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483676, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 277, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 277.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Stephen Halliday", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 872, "timeOnIcePerGame": 872.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.29411 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1166, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1166.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020096, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Spence", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481606, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 3, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.0, "shTimeOnIce": 78, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 78.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jordan Spence", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 1247, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1247.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.95833 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8483435, "player": "Jorian Donovan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 552, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 782, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 694, "PP_seconds": 217, "SH_seconds": 189 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1078, "PP_seconds": 267, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 640, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 820, "PP_seconds": 193, "SH_seconds": 6 }, { "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 253, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 585, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 41 }, { "player_id": 8484409, "player": "Hoyt Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 651, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 660, "PP_seconds": 115, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 953, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 221 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1262, "PP_seconds": 207, "SH_seconds": 202 }, { "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 638, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 106 }, { "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 256, "SH_seconds": 118 }, { "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 809, "PP_seconds": 255, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 215, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 595, "PP_seconds": 277, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 78 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14302, "PP_seconds": 2360, "SH_seconds": 1124 }, "conditional_branches": [ { "scenario": "Conditional exclusion Ridly Greig", "incumbent": { "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 638, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 106 }, "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8483435, "player": "Jorian Donovan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 552, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 844.348912771807, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 86.2719298245614 }, { "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 749.3326668332917, "PP_seconds": 229.42784952274002, "SH_seconds": 232.93421052631578 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1078, "PP_seconds": 267, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 691.0272431892027, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 39.43859649122807 }, { "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 885.3786553361659, "PP_seconds": 204.05334081976417, "SH_seconds": 7.394736842105263 }, { "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 850.8272931767058, "PP_seconds": 267.48961257720384, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 631.6420894776306, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 50.530701754385966 }, { "player_id": 8484409, "player": "Hoyt Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 651, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 712.6218445388653, "PP_seconds": 121.58618753509265, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 953, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 221 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1262, "PP_seconds": 207, "SH_seconds": 202 }, { "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1026.8232941764559, "PP_seconds": 270.6614261650758, "SH_seconds": 145.4298245614035 }, { "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 873.5016245938515, "PP_seconds": 269.6041549691185, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 732.0569857535615, "PP_seconds": 227.31330713082536, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 642.4393901524619, "PP_seconds": 292.8641212801797, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 78 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14302.0, "PP_seconds": 2360.0, "SH_seconds": 1124.0 }, "calculation": "Transfer observed EV/PP/SH exposure to same-position-group demonstrated teammates in proportion to strength-state share. Shortened-bench sensitivity, unannounced dressing reserve not invented." } ], "return_branches": "Any return depends on current official clearance; prior actual role samples retained, future minutes unestimated.", "PP_units": "Unknown final units; official actual strength exposure retained, no roster-order inference", "line_combinations": "Latest actual official skaters and retained prior previews; October15 final lines not announced.", "OT_note": "Observed workload includes any OT; not a forecast of penalties or OT." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8481596, "name": { "default": "S. Pinto" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:20", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8482116, "name": { "default": "T. St\u00fctzle" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:05", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8480208, "name": { "default": "D. Batherson" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:44", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8480188, "name": { "default": "F. Zetterlund" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "12:55", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8476393, "name": { "default": "N. Cousins" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:26", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8478020, "name": { "default": "M. Amadio" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:12", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8481528, "name": { "default": "D. Cozens" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:21", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8473512, "name": { "default": "C. Giroux" }, "position": "R", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:59", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8483676, "name": { "default": "S. Halliday" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:32", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8477998, "name": { "default": "W. Foegele" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:12", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8482092, "name": { "default": "R. Greig" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:06", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8477444, "name": { "default": "A. Burakovsky" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:53", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8481606, "name": { "default": "J. Spence" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:47", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8484759, "name": { "default": "C. Yakemchuk" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:25", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8482095, "name": { "default": "T. Kleven" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:34", "shifts": 30 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8483435, "name": { "default": "J. Donovan" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:12", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8478469, "name": { "default": "T. Chabot" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "27:51", "shifts": 28 }, { "event_id": 2026020096, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "playerId": 8484409, "name": { "default": "H. Stanley" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:52", "shifts": 17 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.8212181224376347, 3.163390313390313 ], "Primary": [ 2.6710626185868027, 3.1297334800408185 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.89024, 3.115845 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.89024, 3.115845 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482092/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482105/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480075/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8484321/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482667/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477073/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482245/landing" ], "findings": "Greig strain/early exit confirmed by coach; conditional replacement branch. Eklund/Zub unavailable; Sanderson DTD conditional PP share.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8482667, "player": "William Eklund", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8478173, "player": "Hayden Hodgson", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8480075, "player": "Cameron Crotty", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8484321, "player": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8482105, "player": "Jake Sanderson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8481035, "player": "Samuel Ersson", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8476999, "player": "Linus Ullmark", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Ottawa Senators", "abbreviation": "OTT", "player": "Ridly Greig", "player_id": "4697411", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T02:36Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/14/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.003884+00:00" }, { "team": "Ottawa Senators", "abbreviation": "OTT", "player": "William Eklund", "player_id": "4874721", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T14:45Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/14/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.003884+00:00" }, { "team": "Ottawa Senators", "abbreviation": "OTT", "player": "Kurtis MacDermid", "player_id": "2992930", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:02Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/14/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.003884+00:00" }, { "team": "Ottawa Senators", "abbreviation": "OTT", "player": "Cameron Crotty", "player_id": "4587571", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-11T15:54Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/14/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.003884+00:00" }, { "team": "Ottawa Senators", "abbreviation": "OTT", "player": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "player_id": "5174232", "injuries": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-13T21:31Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/14/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.003884+00:00" }, { "team": "Ottawa Senators", "abbreviation": "OTT", "player": "Jake Sanderson", "player_id": "4697386", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/14/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.003884+00:00" }, { "team": "Ottawa Senators", "abbreviation": "OTT", "player": "Artem Zub", "player_id": "4712021", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-13T02:53Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/14/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.003884+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8482092, "incumbent": "Ridly Greig", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T02:36Z" } ], "reference_role": { "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 638, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 106 }, "reference_present": true, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8483435, "player": "Jorian Donovan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 552, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 782, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 694, "PP_seconds": 217, "SH_seconds": 189 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1078, "PP_seconds": 267, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 640, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 820, "PP_seconds": 193, "SH_seconds": 6 }, { "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 253, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 585, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 41 }, { "player_id": 8484409, "player": "Hoyt Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 651, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 660, "PP_seconds": 115, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 953, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 221 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1262, "PP_seconds": 207, "SH_seconds": 202 }, { "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 256, "SH_seconds": 118 }, { "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 809, "PP_seconds": 255, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 215, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 595, "PP_seconds": 277, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 78 } ], "conclusion": "Dated status versus actual play checked; contemporaneous flag conditional, older flag superseded by participation.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8482092, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482092/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 21, "avgToi": "17:05", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.547368, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 78, "goals": 13, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 60, "plusMinus": -11, "points": 34, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 9, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.109244, "shorthandedGoals": 2, "shorthandedPoints": 4, "shots": 119, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "18:01", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.428571, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.111111, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 9, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 22, "avgToi": "16:42", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.511719, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 77, "goals": 13, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 83, "plusMinus": 12, "points": 35, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.100775, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 129, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "18:43", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.619048, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 8, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "16:32", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.375, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 7, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8482667, "incumbent": "William Eklund", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T14:45Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8483435, "player": "Jorian Donovan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 552, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 782, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 694, "PP_seconds": 217, "SH_seconds": 189 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1078, "PP_seconds": 267, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 640, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 820, "PP_seconds": 193, "SH_seconds": 6 }, { "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 253, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 585, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 41 }, { "player_id": 8484409, "player": "Hoyt Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 651, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 660, "PP_seconds": 115, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 953, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 221 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1262, "PP_seconds": 207, "SH_seconds": 202 }, { "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 638, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 106 }, { "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 256, "SH_seconds": 118 }, { "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 809, "PP_seconds": 255, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 215, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 595, "PP_seconds": 277, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 78 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8482667, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482667/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 41, "avgToi": "19:33", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.305556, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 77, "goals": 17, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 29, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 58, "powerPlayGoals": 6, "powerPlayPoints": 16, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.112583, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 3, "shots": 151, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sharks" }, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Sharks", "fr": "Sharks de San Jose" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "San Jose", "fr": "de San Jose" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "EHT", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Sweden" } }, { "assists": 38, "avgToi": "18:32", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.354839, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 78, "goals": 15, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 32, "plusMinus": -31, "points": 53, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 16, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.085227, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 176, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sharks" }, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Sharks", "fr": "Sharks de San Jose" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "San Jose", "fr": "de San Jose" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "13:56", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.111111, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 9, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8477073, "incumbent": "Kurtis MacDermid", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:02Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8483435, "player": "Jorian Donovan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 552, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 782, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 694, "PP_seconds": 217, "SH_seconds": 189 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1078, "PP_seconds": 267, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 640, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 820, "PP_seconds": 193, "SH_seconds": 6 }, { "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 253, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 585, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 41 }, { "player_id": 8484409, "player": "Hoyt Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 651, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 660, "PP_seconds": 115, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 953, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 221 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1262, "PP_seconds": 207, "SH_seconds": 202 }, { "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 638, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 106 }, { "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 256, "SH_seconds": 118 }, { "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 809, "PP_seconds": 255, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 215, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 595, "PP_seconds": 277, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 78 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8477073, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477073/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "5:47", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 23, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 23, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 7, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "teamName": { "default": "New Jersey Devils", "fr": "Devils du New Jersey" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "4:12", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 19, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 33, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" }, { "incumbent_id": 8480075, "incumbent": "Cameron Crotty", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-11T15:54Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8483435, "player": "Jorian Donovan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 552, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 782, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 694, "PP_seconds": 217, "SH_seconds": 189 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1078, "PP_seconds": 267, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 640, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 820, "PP_seconds": 193, "SH_seconds": 6 }, { "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 253, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 585, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 41 }, { "player_id": 8484409, "player": "Hoyt Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 651, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 660, "PP_seconds": 115, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 953, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 221 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1262, "PP_seconds": 207, "SH_seconds": 202 }, { "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 638, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 106 }, { "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 256, "SH_seconds": 118 }, { "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 809, "PP_seconds": 255, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 215, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 595, "PP_seconds": 277, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 78 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8480075, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480075/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "5:08", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 10, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 64, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 56, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 10, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Iowa Wild" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "14:55", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 5, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 7, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 49, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 29, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 10, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Belleville Senators" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "8:59", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "10:54", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8484321, "incumbent": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-13T21:31Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8483435, "player": "Jorian Donovan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 552, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 782, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 694, "PP_seconds": 217, "SH_seconds": 189 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1078, "PP_seconds": 267, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 640, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 820, "PP_seconds": 193, "SH_seconds": 6 }, { "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 253, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 585, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 41 }, { "player_id": 8484409, "player": "Hoyt Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 651, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 660, "PP_seconds": 115, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 953, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 221 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1262, "PP_seconds": 207, "SH_seconds": 202 }, { "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 638, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 106 }, { "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 256, "SH_seconds": 118 }, { "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 809, "PP_seconds": 255, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 215, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 595, "PP_seconds": 277, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 78 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8484321, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8484321/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "12:37", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 41, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 20, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.023256, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 43, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 6, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 24, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 10, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 8, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Belleville Senators" } }, { "assists": 1, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 13, "teamName": { "default": "Finland" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "13:10", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "4 Nations", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 44, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 3, "teamName": { "default": "Finland" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "13:04", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 5, "avgToi": "15:38", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 50, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 37, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "4:36", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.25, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Finland", "cs": "Finsko", "de": "Finnland", "es": "Finlandia", "fi": "Suomi", "fr": "Finlande", "sk": "F\u00ednsko" }, "teamName": { "default": "Finland", "cs": "Finsko", "de": "Finnland", "es": "Finlandia", "fi": "Suomi", "fr": "Finlande", "sk": "F\u00ednsko" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "20:53", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "15:11", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8482105, "incumbent": "Jake Sanderson", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8483435, "player": "Jorian Donovan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 552, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 782, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 694, "PP_seconds": 217, "SH_seconds": 189 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1078, "PP_seconds": 267, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 640, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 820, "PP_seconds": 193, "SH_seconds": 6 }, { "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 253, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 585, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 41 }, { "player_id": 8484409, "player": "Hoyt Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 651, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 660, "PP_seconds": 115, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 953, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 221 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1262, "PP_seconds": 207, "SH_seconds": 202 }, { "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 638, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 106 }, { "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 256, "SH_seconds": 118 }, { "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 809, "PP_seconds": 255, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 215, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 595, "PP_seconds": 277, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 78 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8482105, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482105/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 46, "avgToi": "24:27", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 80, "goals": 11, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 12, "plusMinus": -14, "points": 57, "powerPlayGoals": 5, "powerPlayPoints": 30, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.05641, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 4, "shots": 195, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "18:26", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "4 Nations", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 44, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 5, "teamName": { "default": "United States" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "26:19", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.111111, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 9, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 40, "avgToi": "24:50", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 67, "goals": 14, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": 16, "points": 54, "powerPlayGoals": 5, "powerPlayPoints": 22, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.095238, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 147, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "13:17", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 10, "teamCommonName": { "default": "USA", "es": "Estados Unidos", "fi": "Yhdysvaltojen", "fr": "\u00c9tats-Unis" }, "teamName": { "default": "USA" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "27:57", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 5, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "4:29", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8482245, "incumbent": "Artem Zub", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-13T02:53Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8483435, "player": "Jorian Donovan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 552, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 782, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 694, "PP_seconds": 217, "SH_seconds": 189 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1078, "PP_seconds": 267, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 640, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 820, "PP_seconds": 193, "SH_seconds": 6 }, { "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 253, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 585, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 41 }, { "player_id": 8484409, "player": "Hoyt Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 651, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 660, "PP_seconds": 115, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 953, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 221 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1262, "PP_seconds": 207, "SH_seconds": 202 }, { "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 638, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 106 }, { "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 256, "SH_seconds": 118 }, { "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 809, "PP_seconds": 255, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 215, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 595, "PP_seconds": 277, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 78 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8482245, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482245/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 11, "avgToi": "20:38", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 56, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 34, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 13, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.035088, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 57, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "22:36", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 25, "avgToi": "20:48", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 81, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 57, "plusMinus": 22, "points": 30, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.054348, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 92, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "7:44", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8473512, 8476393, 8476999, 8477073, 8477444, 8477998, 8478020, 8478173, 8478469, 8480075, 8480188, 8480208, 8481035, 8481528, 8481596, 8481606, 8482092, 8482095, 8482105, 8482116, 8482245, 8482667, 8483435, 8483676, 8484321, 8484409, 8484759 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 81, "points": 50, "skaterFullName": "Claude Giroux", "goals": 15, "evGoals": 11, "ppGoals": 4, "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "shots": 138, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 35, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 18, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.10869, "evPoints": 31, "playerId": 8473512, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1092.3209, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 50, "points": 15, "skaterFullName": "Nick Cousins", "goals": 6, "evGoals": 6, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "shots": 68, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 9, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.08823, "evPoints": 15, "playerId": 8476393, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 714.16, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 79, "points": 37, "skaterFullName": "Andre Burakovsky", "goals": 10, "evGoals": 10, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "SEA", "shots": 115, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 27, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 8, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.08695, "evPoints": 29, "playerId": 8477444, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 865.3417, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 46, "skaterFullName": "Warren Foegele", "goals": 24, "evGoals": 23, "ppGoals": 1, "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "shots": 199, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 22, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 7, "shootingPct": 0.1206, "evPoints": 44, "playerId": 8477998, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 970.1341, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 72, "points": 27, "skaterFullName": "Michael Amadio", "goals": 11, "evGoals": 10, "ppGoals": 1, "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "shots": 85, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 16, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.12941, "evPoints": 26, "playerId": 8478020, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 845.75, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 2, "points": 0, "skaterFullName": "Hayden Hodgson", "goals": 0, "evGoals": 0, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "shots": 2, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 0, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.0, "evPoints": 0, "playerId": 8478173, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 514.5, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 80, "points": 45, "skaterFullName": "Thomas Chabot", "goals": 9, "evGoals": 8, "ppGoals": 1, "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "shots": 179, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 36, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 8, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.05027, "evPoints": 37, "playerId": 8478469, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1381.45, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 1, "points": 0, "skaterFullName": "Cameron Crotty", "goals": 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"timeOnIcePerGame": 625.85714, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.81 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4328, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 721.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Matinpalo", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484321, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 4, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1132, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 188.66666, "shifts": 128, "shiftsPerGame": 21.33333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 5464, "timeOnIcePerGame": 910.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.6875 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2464, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 616.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Stanley", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484409, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 3, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.75, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 153, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 38.25, "shifts": 67, "shiftsPerGame": 16.75, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Hoyt Stanley", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 2620, "timeOnIcePerGame": 655.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.10447 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6230, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 890.0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Yakemchuk", "otTimeOnIce": 75, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 75.0, "playerId": 8484759, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1520, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 217.14285, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 12, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.71428, "shifts": 173, "shiftsPerGame": 24.71428, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Carter Yakemchuk", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 7762, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1108.85714, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.86705 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892507", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.8212181224376347, 3.163390313390313 ], "Primary": [ 2.6710626185868027, 3.1297334800408185 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.89024, 3.115845 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.89024, 3.115845 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators", "market": { "id": "401892507", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892507", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.130710+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.421555+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 164.0, "away_line_price": -198.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -108.0, "home_ml": -166.0, "away_ml": 140.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.34217219095267826, "combined": 5.984608435827948, "spread_buffer": -1.1578278090473217, "total_difference": 0.48460843582794766 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.34217219095267826, "combined": 5.984608435827948, "spread_buffer": -1.1578278090473217, "total_difference": 0.48460843582794766 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.4586708614540158, "combined": 5.800796098627622, "spread_buffer": -1.0413291385459842, "total_difference": 0.3007960986276217 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.4586708614540158, "combined": 5.800796098627622, "spread_buffer": -1.0413291385459842, "total_difference": 0.3007960986276217 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.22560500000000028, "combined": 6.006085000000001, "spread_buffer": -1.2743949999999997, "total_difference": 0.5060850000000006 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.22560500000000028, "combined": 6.006085000000001, "spread_buffer": -1.2743949999999997, "total_difference": 0.5060850000000006 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.22560500000000028, "combined": 6.006085000000001, "spread_buffer": -1.2743949999999997, "total_difference": 0.5060850000000006 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.22560500000000028, "combined": 6.006085000000001, "spread_buffer": -1.2743949999999997, "total_difference": 0.5060850000000006 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892509", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892509", "date": "2026-10-15T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1396", "fullName": "Benchmark International Arena", "address": { "city": "Tampa", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "away": "124292", "away_name": "Seattle Kraken", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "20", "home_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.8489959002154124, 3.326895281773331 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8489959002154124, 3.326895281773331 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8489959002154124, 3.326895281773331 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 7, "current_weight": 0.25925925925925924, "prior_rates": [ 2.7560975609756095, 3.207317073170732 ], "current_rates": [ 4.142857142857143, 2.7142857142857144 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.5365853658536586, 2.817073170731707 ], "current_rates": [ 2.8333333333333335, 2.6666666666666665 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0408536585365855, "mean_margin_error": 1.1651031894934332, "mean_total_error": 1.8578799249530955, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.7621899999999999, 4.76219 ], "home": [ 1.3109700000000002, 5.31097 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.7341384916133475, 3.4156019627102374 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7341384916133475, 3.4156019627102374 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7341384916133475, 3.4156019627102374 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2853, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-15T00:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "52c34c3445f9a414a983487152c4386aef5a0f4df759d280912f7f17468318de" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0580661730553012, "mean_margin_error": 1.1735321999404547, "mean_total_error": 1.9050370803767076, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.7621899999999999, 4.76219 ], "home": [ 1.3109700000000002, 5.31097 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.76219, 3.31097 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.76219, 3.31097 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.76219, 3.31097 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.7317, "pa": 3.13414, "official_team_id": 55, "official_team_name": "Seattle Kraken" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.4878, "pa": 2.79268, "official_team_id": 14, "official_team_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.7621899999999999, 4.76219 ], "home": [ 1.3109700000000002, 5.31097 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.76219, 3.31097 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.76219, 3.31097 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.76219, 3.31097 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.7317, "pa": 3.13414, "official_team_id": 55, "official_team_name": "Seattle Kraken" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.4878, "pa": 2.79268, "official_team_id": 14, "official_team_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.7621899999999999, 4.76219 ], "home": [ 1.3109700000000002, 5.31097 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "SEA: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. TBL: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Benchmark International Arena; listed 2026-10-15T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892509", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Seattle Kraken", "home": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1396", "fullName": "Benchmark International Arena", "address": { "city": "Tampa", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Seattle Kraken", "previous_game": { "id": "401892492", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1845", "fullName": "Xfinity Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "124292", "away_name": "Seattle Kraken", "away_score": 3.0, "home": "15", "home_name": "Philadelphia Flyers", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20739.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "previous_game": { "id": "401892493", "date": "2026-10-13T23:15Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "20", "away_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "away_score": 1.0, "home": "13", "home_name": "New York Rangers", "home_score": 4.0, "day": 20739.96875 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020111, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. 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95.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Mackie Samoskevich", "teamAbbrev": "SEA", "timeOnIce": 1054, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1054.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.90909 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1061, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1061.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020094, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Larsson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PHI", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476457, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 147, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 147.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Adam Larsson", "teamAbbrev": "SEA", "timeOnIce": 1208, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1208.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.33333 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8477919, "player": "Freddy Gaudreau", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 709, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 143 }, { "player_id": 8482259, "player": "Bobby McMann", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 101, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482866, "player": "Ville Ottavainen", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 573, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481554, "player": "Kaapo Kakko", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 803, "PP_seconds": 146, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479372, "player": "Josh Mahura", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 705, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482665, "player": "Matty Beniers", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1026, "PP_seconds": 205, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483524, "player": "Shane Wright", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 675, "PP_seconds": 103, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474586, "player": "Jordan Eberle", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 757, "PP_seconds": 220, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478407, "player": "Vince Dunn", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1163, "PP_seconds": 251, "SH_seconds": 154 }, { "player_id": 8477986, "player": "Brandon Montour", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1485, "PP_seconds": 215, "SH_seconds": 109 }, { "player_id": 8482858, "player": "Ryker Evans", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1322, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8476905, "player": "Chandler Stephenson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 770, "PP_seconds": 239, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8484800, "player": "Berkly Catton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 180, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483570, "player": "Ben Meyers", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 624, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8482751, "player": "Ryan Winterton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 681, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 150 }, { "player_id": 8477955, "player": "Jared McCann", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 816, "PP_seconds": 215, "SH_seconds": 19 }, { "player_id": 8482713, "player": "Mackie Samoskevich", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 959, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476457, "player": "Adam Larsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1061, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 147 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15713, "PP_seconds": 1970, "SH_seconds": 1016 }, "conditional_branches": [], "return_branches": "Any return depends on current official clearance; prior actual role samples retained, future minutes unestimated.", "PP_units": "Unknown final units; official actual strength exposure retained, no roster-order inference", "line_combinations": "Latest actual official skaters and retained prior previews; October15 final lines not announced.", "OT_note": "Observed workload includes any OT; not a forecast of penalties or OT." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8474586, "name": { "default": "J. Eberle" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:17", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8476905, "name": { "default": "C. Stephenson" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:40", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8482665, "name": { "default": "M. Beniers" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:31", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8482713, "name": { "default": "M. Samoskevich" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:34", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8477955, "name": { "default": "J. McCann" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:30", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8482751, "name": { "default": "R. Winterton" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:51", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8484800, "name": { "default": "B. Catton" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:20", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8483524, "name": { "default": "S. Wright" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:58", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8483570, "name": { "default": "B. Meyers" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:48", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8482259, "name": { "default": "B. McMann" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "14:45", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8481554, "name": { "default": "K. Kakko" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:49", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8477919, "name": { "default": "F. Gaudreau" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:12", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8476457, "name": { "default": "A. Larsson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:08", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8479372, "name": { "default": "J. Mahura" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:45", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8478407, "name": { "default": "V. Dunn" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "26:08", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8482858, "name": { "default": "R. Evans" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:41", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8482866, "name": { "default": "V. Ottavainen" }, "position": "D", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:33", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SEA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8477986, "name": { "default": "B. Montour" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "30:09", "shifts": 27 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.8489959002154124, 3.326895281773331 ], "Primary": [ 2.7341384916133475, 3.4156019627102374 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.76219, 3.31097 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.76219, 3.31097 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482874/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479324/landing" ], "findings": "Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8482665, "player": "Matty Beniers", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8484800, "player": "Berkly Catton", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8480876, "player": "Curtis Douglas", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8474586, "player": "Jordan Eberle", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8477919, "player": "Frederick Gaudreau", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8481554, "player": "Kaapo Kakko", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8477955, "player": "Jared McCann", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8482259, "player": "Bobby McMann", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8482874, "player": "Jacob Melanson", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8483570, "player": "Ben Meyers", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8485383, "player": "Jake O'Brien", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8482713, "player": "Mackie Samoskevich", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8476905, "player": "Chandler Stephenson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8482751, "player": "Ryan Winterton", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8483524, "player": "Shane Wright", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8478407, "player": "Vince Dunn", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8482858, "player": "Ryker Evans", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8479985, "player": "Cale Fleury", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8476457, "player": "Adam Larsson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8479324, "player": "Ryan Lindgren", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8479372, "player": "Josh Mahura", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8477986, "player": "Brandon Montour", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8482866, "player": "Ville Ottavainen", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8478916, "player": "Joey Daccord", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8475831, "player": "Philipp Grubauer", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Seattle Kraken", "abbreviation": "SEA", "player": "Jacob Melanson", "player_id": "4894747", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T19:49Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/124292/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.102817+00:00" }, { "team": "Seattle Kraken", "abbreviation": "SEA", "player": "Ryan Lindgren", "player_id": "4271998", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-08T16:38Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/124292/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.102817+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8482874, "incumbent": "Jacob Melanson", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T19:49Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477919, "player": "Freddy Gaudreau", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 709, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 143 }, { "player_id": 8482259, "player": "Bobby McMann", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 101, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482866, "player": "Ville Ottavainen", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 573, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481554, "player": "Kaapo Kakko", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 803, "PP_seconds": 146, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479372, "player": "Josh Mahura", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 705, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482665, "player": "Matty Beniers", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1026, "PP_seconds": 205, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483524, "player": "Shane Wright", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 675, "PP_seconds": 103, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474586, "player": "Jordan Eberle", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 757, "PP_seconds": 220, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478407, "player": "Vince Dunn", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1163, "PP_seconds": 251, "SH_seconds": 154 }, { "player_id": 8477986, "player": "Brandon Montour", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1485, "PP_seconds": 215, "SH_seconds": 109 }, { "player_id": 8482858, "player": "Ryker Evans", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1322, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8476905, "player": "Chandler Stephenson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 770, "PP_seconds": 239, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8484800, "player": "Berkly Catton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 180, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483570, "player": "Ben Meyers", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 624, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8482751, "player": "Ryan Winterton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 681, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 150 }, { "player_id": 8477955, "player": "Jared McCann", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 816, "PP_seconds": 215, "SH_seconds": 19 }, { "player_id": 8482713, "player": "Mackie Samoskevich", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 959, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476457, "player": "Adam Larsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1061, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 147 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8482874, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482874/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "9:53", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kraken" }, "teamName": { "default": "Seattle Kraken", "fr": "Kraken de Seattle" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Seattle", "fr": "de Seattle" } }, { "assists": 5, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 42, "goals": 8, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 48, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 13, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Coachella Valley Firebirds" } }, { "assists": 2, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 10, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Coachella Valley Firebirds" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "9:22", "faceoffWinningPctg": 1.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 36, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 32, "plusMinus": -9, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.060606, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 33, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kraken" }, "teamName": { "default": "Seattle Kraken", "fr": "Kraken de Seattle" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Seattle", "fr": "de Seattle" } }, { "assists": 10, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 28, "goals": 9, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 28, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 19, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Coachella Valley Firebirds" } }, { "assists": 4, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 11, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 16, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 5, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Coachella Valley Firebirds" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "9:31", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kraken" }, "teamName": { "default": "Seattle Kraken", "fr": "Kraken de Seattle" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Seattle", "fr": "de Seattle" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8479324, "incumbent": "Ryan Lindgren", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-08T16:38Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477919, "player": "Freddy Gaudreau", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 709, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 143 }, { "player_id": 8482259, "player": "Bobby McMann", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 101, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482866, "player": "Ville Ottavainen", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 573, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481554, "player": "Kaapo Kakko", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 803, "PP_seconds": 146, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479372, "player": "Josh Mahura", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 705, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482665, "player": "Matty Beniers", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1026, "PP_seconds": 205, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483524, "player": "Shane Wright", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 675, "PP_seconds": 103, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474586, "player": "Jordan Eberle", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 757, "PP_seconds": 220, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478407, "player": "Vince Dunn", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1163, "PP_seconds": 251, "SH_seconds": 154 }, { "player_id": 8477986, "player": "Brandon Montour", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1485, "PP_seconds": 215, "SH_seconds": 109 }, { "player_id": 8482858, "player": "Ryker Evans", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1322, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8476905, "player": "Chandler Stephenson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 770, "PP_seconds": 239, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8484800, "player": "Berkly Catton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 180, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483570, "player": "Ben Meyers", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 624, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8482751, "player": "Ryan Winterton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 681, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 150 }, { "player_id": 8477955, "player": "Jared McCann", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 816, "PP_seconds": 215, "SH_seconds": 19 }, { "player_id": 8482713, "player": "Mackie Samoskevich", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 959, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476457, "player": "Adam Larsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1061, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 147 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8479324, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479324/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 17, "avgToi": "19:56", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 54, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 36, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 19, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.047619, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 42, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Rangers" }, "teamName": { "default": "New York Rangers", "fr": "Rangers de New York" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New York", "fr": "de New York" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "19:00", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 18, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.095238, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 21, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Avalanche" }, "teamName": { "default": "Colorado Avalanche", "fr": "Avalanche du Colorado" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Colorado", "fr": "du Colorado" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "18:37", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 8, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Avalanche" }, "teamName": { "default": "Colorado Avalanche", "fr": "Avalanche du Colorado" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Colorado", "fr": "du Colorado" } }, { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "18:20", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 76, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 60, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 9, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.041667, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 48, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kraken" }, "teamName": { "default": "Seattle Kraken", "fr": "Kraken de Seattle" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Seattle", "fr": "de Seattle" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "12:45", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 7, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kraken" }, "teamName": { "default": "Seattle Kraken", "fr": "Kraken de Seattle" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Seattle", "fr": "de Seattle" } } ] } } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8474586, 8475831, 8476457, 8476905, 8477919, 8477955, 8477986, 8478407, 8478916, 8479324, 8479372, 8479985, 8480876, 8481554, 8482259, 8482665, 8482713, 8482751, 8482858, 8482866, 8482874, 8483524, 8483570, 8484800, 8485383 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 42, "points": 26, "skaterFullName": "Jordan Eberle", "goals": 9, "evGoals": 8, "ppGoals": 1, "teamAbbrevs": "SEA", "shots": 66, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 17, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 5, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.13636, "evPoints": 21, "playerId": 8474586, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 975.7857, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 28, "skaterFullName": "Adam Larsson", "goals": 7, "evGoals": 7, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "SEA", "shots": 112, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 21, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0625, "evPoints": 28, "playerId": 8476457, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1271.1463, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 78, "points": 51, "skaterFullName": "Chandler Stephenson", "goals": 13, "evGoals": 10, "ppGoals": 1, "teamAbbrevs": "SEA", "shots": 73, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 38, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 18, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.17808, "evPoints": 31, "playerId": 8476905, "shGoals": 2, "shPoints": 2, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1170.5641, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 37, "skaterFullName": "Freddy Gaudreau", "goals": 18, "evGoals": 13, "ppGoals": 5, "teamAbbrevs": "MIN", "shots": 110, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 19, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 5, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.16363, "evPoints": 32, "playerId": 8477919, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 939.6951, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 61, "skaterFullName": "Jared McCann", "goals": 22, "evGoals": 18, "ppGoals": 4, "teamAbbrevs": "SEA", "shots": 202, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 39, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 16, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.10891, "evPoints": 44, "playerId": 8477955, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1032.6463, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 81, "points": 41, "skaterFullName": "Brandon Montour", "goals": 18, "evGoals": 13, "ppGoals": 5, "teamAbbrevs": "SEA", "shots": 231, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 23, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 11, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "shootingPct": 0.07792, "evPoints": 30, "playerId": 8477986, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1378.5679, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 62, "points": 39, "skaterFullName": "Vince Dunn", "goals": 11, "evGoals": 9, "ppGoals": 2, "teamAbbrevs": "SEA", "shots": 137, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 28, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 12, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.08029, "evPoints": 27, "playerId": 8478407, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1324.7419, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 72, "points": 22, "skaterFullName": "Ryan Lindgren", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 4, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "NYR,COL", "shots": 63, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 18, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.06349, "evPoints": 20, "playerId": 8479324, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 2, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1182.2361, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 64, "points": 9, "skaterFullName": "Josh Mahura", 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"canonical_espn_event_id": "401892509", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.8489959002154124, 3.326895281773331 ], "Primary": [ 2.7341384916133475, 3.4156019627102374 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.76219, 3.31097 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.76219, 3.31097 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020111, "team": "TBL", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 529, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 529.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020095, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Cirelli", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NYR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478519, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 170, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 170.0, "shTimeOnIce": 231, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 231.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Anthony Cirelli", "teamAbbrev": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 930, "timeOnIcePerGame": 930.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 771, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 771.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020095, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Guentzel", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NYR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477404, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 319, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 319.0, "shTimeOnIce": 34, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 34.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jake Guentzel", "teamAbbrev": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 1124, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1124.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.86956 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 729, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 729.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020095, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Geekie", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NYR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483447, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 68, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 68.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Conor Geekie", "teamAbbrev": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 797, "timeOnIcePerGame": 797.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.88235 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 565, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 565.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020095, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "McDonagh", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NYR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8474151, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 18, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 18.0, "shTimeOnIce": 154, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 154.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ryan McDonagh", "teamAbbrev": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 737, "timeOnIcePerGame": 737.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.0625 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 527, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 527.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020095, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Viel", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NYR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479705, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 22, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 22.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 13, "shiftsPerGame": 13.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jeff Viel", "teamAbbrev": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 549, "timeOnIcePerGame": 549.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.23076 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 906, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 906.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020095, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Point", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NYR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478010, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 301, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 301.0, "shTimeOnIce": 5, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Brayden Point", "teamAbbrev": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 1212, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1212.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 60.6 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1058, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1058.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020095, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Moser", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NYR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482655, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 9, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 9.0, "shTimeOnIce": 118, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 118.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "J.J. 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"timeOnIce": 980, "timeOnIcePerGame": 980.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 57.64705 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 887, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 887.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020095, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Carlson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NYR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8474590, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 309, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 309.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "John Carlson", "teamAbbrev": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 1196, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1196.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 66.44444 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 933, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 933.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020095, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Crozier", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NYR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481719, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 9, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 9.0, "shTimeOnIce": 157, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 157.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Max Crozier", "teamAbbrev": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 1099, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1099.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.7826 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 776, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 776.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020095, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "D'Astous", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NYR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480426, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 65, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 65.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Charle-Edouard D'Astous", "teamAbbrev": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 841, "timeOnIcePerGame": 841.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.05 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 776, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 776.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020095, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Girgensons", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NYR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476878, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 126, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 126.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Zemgus Girgensons", "teamAbbrev": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 902, "timeOnIcePerGame": 902.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.47368 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8478519, "player": "Anthony Cirelli", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 529, "PP_seconds": 170, "SH_seconds": 231 }, { "player_id": 8477404, "player": "Jake Guentzel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 771, "PP_seconds": 319, "SH_seconds": 34 }, { "player_id": 8483447, "player": "Conor Geekie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 729, "PP_seconds": 68, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474151, "player": "Ryan McDonagh", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 565, "PP_seconds": 18, "SH_seconds": 154 }, { "player_id": 8479705, "player": "Jeff Viel", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 527, "PP_seconds": 22, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478010, "player": "Brayden Point", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 906, "PP_seconds": 301, "SH_seconds": 5 }, { "player_id": 8482655, "player": "J.J. Moser", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1058, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 118 }, { "player_id": 8480995, "player": "Pontus Holmberg", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 770, "PP_seconds": 50, "SH_seconds": 2 }, { "player_id": 8481624, "player": "Ilya Mikheyev", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 722, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 108 }, { "player_id": 8476453, "player": "Nikita Kucherov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1074, "PP_seconds": 321, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479542, "player": "Brandon Hagel", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 675, "PP_seconds": 308, "SH_seconds": 274 }, { "player_id": 8475167, "player": "Victor Hedman", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 562, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 234 }, { "player_id": 8478416, "player": "Erik Cernak", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 882, "PP_seconds": 19, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8482201, "player": "Gage Goncalves", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 911, "PP_seconds": 69, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474590, "player": "John Carlson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 887, "PP_seconds": 309, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481719, "player": "Max Crozier", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 933, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 157 }, { "player_id": 8480426, "player": "Charle-Edouard D'Astous", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 776, "PP_seconds": 65, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476878, "player": "Zemgus Girgensons", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 776, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 126 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14053, "PP_seconds": 2057, "SH_seconds": 1564 }, "conditional_branches": [], "return_branches": "Any return depends on current official clearance; prior actual role samples retained, future minutes unestimated.", "PP_units": "Unknown final units; official actual strength exposure retained, no roster-order inference", "line_combinations": "Latest actual official skaters and retained prior previews; October15 final lines not announced.", "OT_note": "Observed workload includes any OT; not a forecast of penalties or OT." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8478010, "name": { "default": "B. Point" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:12", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8479705, "name": { "default": "J. Viel" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:09", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8476878, "name": { "default": "Z. Girgensons" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:02", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8480995, "name": { "default": "P. Holmberg" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:42", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8479542, "name": { "default": "B. Hagel" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:57", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8477404, "name": { "default": "J. Guentzel" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:44", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8478519, "name": { "default": "A. Cirelli" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:30", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8476453, "name": { "default": "N. Kucherov", "cs": "N. Ku\u010derov", "fi": "N. Kutsherov", "sk": "N. Ku\u010derov" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:15", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8482201, "name": { "default": "G. Goncalves" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:20", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8483447, "name": { "default": "C. Geekie" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:17", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8481624, "name": { "default": "I. Mikheyev", "cs": "I. Michejev", "fi": "I. Mihejev", "sk": "I. Michejev" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:50", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8481719, "name": { "default": "M. Crozier" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:19", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8474151, "name": { "default": "R. McDonagh" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:17", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8480426, "name": { "default": "C. D'Astous" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:01", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8474590, "name": { "default": "J. Carlson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:56", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8475167, "name": { "default": "V. Hedman" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:16", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8478416, "name": { "default": "E. Cernak", "cs": "E. \u010cern\u00e1k", "sk": "E. \u010cern\u00e1k" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:02", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8482655, "name": { "default": "J. Moser" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:45", "shifts": 23 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.8489959002154124, 3.326895281773331 ], "Primary": [ 2.7341384916133475, 3.4156019627102374 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.76219, 3.31097 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.76219, 3.31097 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8476826/landing" ], "findings": "Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8478519, "player": "Anthony Cirelli", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8483447, "player": "Conor Geekie", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8476878, "player": "Zemgus Girgensons", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8482201, "player": "Gage Goncalves", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8476826, "player": "Yanni Gourde", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8477404, "player": "Jake Guentzel", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8479542, "player": "Brandon Hagel", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8480995, "player": "Pontus Holmberg", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8483752, "player": "Dominic James", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8476453, "player": "Nikita Kucherov", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8481624, "player": "Ilya Mikheyev", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8478010, "player": "Brayden Point", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8477149, "player": "Scott Sabourin", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8479705, "player": "Jeffrey Viel", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8474590, "player": "John Carlson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8478416, "player": "Erik Cernak", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8481719, "player": "Max Crozier", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8480426, "player": "Charle-Edouard D'Astous", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8475167, "player": "Victor Hedman", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8482929, "player": "Emil Lilleberg", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8474151, "player": "Ryan McDonagh", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8482655, "player": "J.J. Moser", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8483710, "player": "Dennis Hildeby", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8476883, "player": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "abbreviation": "TB", "player": "Yanni Gourde", "player_id": "3094261", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T19:18Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/20/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.124534+00:00" }, { "team": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "abbreviation": "TB", "player": "Dennis Hildeby", "player_id": "5174160", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/20/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.124534+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8476826, "incumbent": "Yanni Gourde", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T19:18Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478519, "player": "Anthony Cirelli", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 529, "PP_seconds": 170, "SH_seconds": 231 }, { "player_id": 8477404, "player": "Jake Guentzel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 771, "PP_seconds": 319, "SH_seconds": 34 }, { "player_id": 8483447, "player": "Conor Geekie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 729, "PP_seconds": 68, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474151, "player": "Ryan McDonagh", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 565, "PP_seconds": 18, "SH_seconds": 154 }, { "player_id": 8479705, "player": "Jeff Viel", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 527, "PP_seconds": 22, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478010, "player": "Brayden Point", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 906, "PP_seconds": 301, "SH_seconds": 5 }, { "player_id": 8482655, "player": "J.J. Moser", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1058, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 118 }, { "player_id": 8480995, "player": "Pontus Holmberg", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 770, "PP_seconds": 50, "SH_seconds": 2 }, { "player_id": 8481624, "player": "Ilya Mikheyev", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 722, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 108 }, { "player_id": 8476453, "player": "Nikita Kucherov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1074, "PP_seconds": 321, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479542, "player": "Brandon Hagel", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 675, "PP_seconds": 308, "SH_seconds": 274 }, { "player_id": 8475167, "player": "Victor Hedman", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 562, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 234 }, { "player_id": 8478416, "player": "Erik Cernak", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 882, "PP_seconds": 19, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8482201, "player": "Gage Goncalves", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 911, "PP_seconds": 69, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474590, "player": "John Carlson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 887, "PP_seconds": 309, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481719, "player": "Max Crozier", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 933, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 157 }, { "player_id": 8480426, "player": "Charle-Edouard D'Astous", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 776, "PP_seconds": 65, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476878, "player": "Zemgus Girgensons", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 776, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 126 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8476826, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8476826/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 11, "avgToi": "15:30", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.507979, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 36, "goals": 6, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 36, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 17, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.15, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 40, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kraken" }, "teamName": { "default": "Seattle Kraken", "fr": "Kraken de Seattle" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Seattle", "fr": "de Seattle" } }, { "assists": 13, "avgToi": "17:00", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.469136, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 21, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 14, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.028571, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 35, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Lightning" }, "teamName": { "default": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "fr": "Lightning de Tampa Bay" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Tampa Bay", "fr": "de Tampa Bay" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "14:31", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.416667, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Lightning" }, "teamName": { "default": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "fr": "Lightning de Tampa Bay" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Tampa Bay", "fr": "de Tampa Bay" } }, { "assists": 19, "avgToi": "16:22", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.449489, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 9, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 66, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 28, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.078947, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 114, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Lightning" }, "teamName": { "default": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "fr": "Lightning de Tampa Bay" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Tampa Bay", "fr": "de Tampa Bay" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "15:38", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.307692, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 10, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 6, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Lightning" }, "teamName": { "default": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "fr": "Lightning de Tampa Bay" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Tampa Bay", "fr": "de Tampa Bay" } } ] } } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8474151, 8474590, 8475167, 8476453, 8476826, 8476878, 8476883, 8477149, 8477404, 8478010, 8478416, 8478519, 8479542, 8479705, 8480426, 8480995, 8481624, 8481719, 8482201, 8482655, 8482929, 8483447, 8483710, 8483752 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 31, "skaterFullName": "Ryan McDonagh", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 3, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "shots": 78, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 27, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.05128, "evPoints": 27, "playerId": 8474151, "shGoals": 1, "shPoints": 3, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1222.2195, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 79, "points": 51, "skaterFullName": "John Carlson", "goals": 5, "evGoals": 4, "ppGoals": 1, "teamAbbrevs": "WSH", "shots": 167, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 46, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 14, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.02994, "evPoints": 37, "playerId": 8474590, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1413.8481, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 79, "points": 66, "skaterFullName": "Victor Hedman", "goals": 15, "evGoals": 11, "ppGoals": 4, "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "shots": 181, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 51, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 26, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.08287, "evPoints": 40, "playerId": 8475167, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1384.7848, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 78, "points": 121, "skaterFullName": "Nikita Kucherov", "goals": 37, "evGoals": 29, "ppGoals": 8, "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "shots": 265, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 84, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 46, "gameWinningGoals": 9, "shootingPct": 0.13962, "evPoints": 75, "playerId": 8476453, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1271.3717, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 57, "points": 31, "skaterFullName": "Yanni Gourde", "goals": 7, "evGoals": 7, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "SEA,TBL", "shots": 75, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 24, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.09333, "evPoints": 30, "playerId": 8476826, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 962.8421, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 6, "skaterFullName": "Zemgus Girgensons", "goals": 2, "evGoals": 2, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "shots": 83, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 4, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.02409, "evPoints": 6, "playerId": 8476878, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 699.878, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 1, "points": 0, "skaterFullName": "Scott Sabourin", "goals": 0, "evGoals": 0, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "SJS", "shots": 0, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 0, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": null, "evPoints": 0, "playerId": 8477149, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 627.0, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 80, "points": 80, "skaterFullName": "Jake Guentzel", "goals": 41, "evGoals": 23, "ppGoals": 17, "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "shots": 217, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 39, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 28, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "shootingPct": 0.18894, "evPoints": 51, "playerId": 8477404, "shGoals": 1, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1199.5625, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 77, "points": 82, "skaterFullName": "Brayden Point", "goals": 42, "evGoals": 26, "ppGoals": 16, "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "shots": 189, "otGoals": 2, "assists": 40, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 31, "gameWinningGoals": 7, "shootingPct": 0.22222, "evPoints": 51, "playerId": 8478010, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1168.7532, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 76, "points": 21, "skaterFullName": "Erik Cernak", "goals": 3, "evGoals": 3, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "shots": 64, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 18, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.04687, "evPoints": 19, "playerId": 8478416, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 2, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1095.6315, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": 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"ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 100.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 38, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.33333, "shifts": 106, "shiftsPerGame": 17.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Charle-Edouard D'Astous", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 5245, "timeOnIcePerGame": 874.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.48113 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4879, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 813.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Holmberg", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480995, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 447, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 74.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 4, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.66666, "shifts": 122, "shiftsPerGame": 20.33333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Pontus Holmberg", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 5330, "timeOnIcePerGame": 888.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.68852 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4574, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 762.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Mikheyev", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481624, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 14, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 562, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 93.66666, "shifts": 115, "shiftsPerGame": 19.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ilya Mikheyev", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 5150, "timeOnIcePerGame": 858.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.7826 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4077, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1019.25, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Crozier", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481719, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 41, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 10.25, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 157, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 39.25, "shifts": 87, "shiftsPerGame": 21.75, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Max Crozier", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 4275, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1068.75, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.13793 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5167, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 861.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Goncalves", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482201, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 493, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 82.16666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 33, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.5, "shifts": 114, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Gage Goncalves", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 5693, "timeOnIcePerGame": 948.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.93859 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5537, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 922.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Moser", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482655, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 23, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 527, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 87.83333, "shifts": 122, "shiftsPerGame": 20.33333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "J.J. Moser", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 6087, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1014.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.89344 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 591, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 591.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Lilleberg", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482929, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 39, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 39.0, "shifts": 15, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Emil Lilleberg", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 630, "timeOnIcePerGame": 630.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3601, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 600.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Geekie", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483447, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 523, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 87.16666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 89, "shiftsPerGame": 14.83333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Conor Geekie", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 4124, "timeOnIcePerGame": 687.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.33707 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892509", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.8489959002154124, 3.326895281773331 ], "Primary": [ 2.7341384916133475, 3.4156019627102374 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.76219, 3.31097 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.76219, 3.31097 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning", "market": { "id": "401892509", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892509", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.130710+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.414917+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 105.0, "away_line_price": -125.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 102.0, "under_price": -122.0, "home_ml": -258.0, "away_ml": 210.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.47789938155791845, "combined": 6.175891181988743, "spread_buffer": -1.0221006184420816, "total_difference": -0.3241088180112568 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.47789938155791845, "combined": 6.175891181988743, "spread_buffer": -1.0221006184420816, "total_difference": -0.3241088180112568 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.6814634710968899, "combined": 6.1497404543235845, "spread_buffer": -0.8185365289031101, "total_difference": -0.3502595456764155 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.6814634710968899, "combined": 6.1497404543235845, "spread_buffer": -0.8185365289031101, "total_difference": -0.3502595456764155 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.5487800000000003, "combined": 6.07316, "spread_buffer": -0.9512199999999997, "total_difference": -0.42684000000000033 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.5487800000000003, "combined": 6.07316, "spread_buffer": -0.9512199999999997, "total_difference": -0.42684000000000033 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.5487800000000003, "combined": 6.07316, "spread_buffer": -0.9512199999999997, "total_difference": -0.42684000000000033 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.5487800000000003, "combined": 6.07316, "spread_buffer": -0.9512199999999997, "total_difference": -0.42684000000000033 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892510", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892510", "date": "2026-10-15T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1840", "fullName": "Amerant Bank Arena", "address": { "city": "Sunrise", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "away": "22", "away_name": "Vancouver Canucks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "26", "home_name": "Florida Panthers", "home_score": 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.9512150000000004, 3.41463 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.9512150000000004, 3.41463 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.9512150000000004, 3.41463 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.82926, "official_team_id": 23, "official_team_name": "Vancouver Canucks" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.34146, "official_team_id": 13, "official_team_name": "Florida Panthers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9512150000000004, 4.951215 ], "home": [ 1.4146299999999998, 5.41463 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "VAN: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. FLA: Barkov/Marchand absent; Bennett/Lundell/Reinhart and Vilmanis/Lafferty redistribution; Gudas DTD conditional. Markstrom separate goalie flag.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 8 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Amerant Bank Arena; listed 2026-10-15T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892510", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Vancouver Canucks", "home": "Florida Panthers", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1840", "fullName": "Amerant Bank Arena", "address": { "city": "Sunrise", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Vancouver Canucks", "previous_game": { "id": "401892495", "date": "2026-10-13T23:45Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "7226", "fullName": "UBS Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Elmont", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "22", "away_name": "Vancouver Canucks", "away_score": 2.0, "home": "12", "home_name": "New York Islanders", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20739.989583333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Florida Panthers", "previous_game": { "id": "401892489", "date": "2026-10-13T22:15Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1828", "fullName": "Nationwide Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Columbus", "state": "OH", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "26", "away_name": "Florida Panthers", "away_score": 7.0, "home": "29", "home_name": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20739.927083333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. 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Hronek" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "24:53", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020097, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VAN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020097/boxscore", "playerId": 8483678, "name": { "default": "E. Pettersson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:37", "shifts": 24 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.922035101303394, 3.640424570912376 ], "Primary": [ 2.801937576681356, 3.727893556237517 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.9512150000000004, 3.41463 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.9512150000000004, 3.41463 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020097/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480078/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480851/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8476907/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482144/landing" ], "findings": "Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8483395, "player": "Arshdeep Bains", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8478444, "player": "Brock Boeser", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8480078, "player": "Filip Chytil", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8481032, "player": "Paul Cotter", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8478498, "player": "Jake DeBrusk", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8475848, "player": "Brendan Gallagher", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8481024, "player": "Linus Karlsson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8483476, "player": "Jonathan Lekkerim\u00e4ki", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8482055, "player": "Drew O'Connor", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8483499, "player": "Liam Ohgren", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8480012, "player": "Elias Pettersson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8482691, "player": "Aatu R\u00e4ty", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8482079, "player": "Marco Rossi", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8484136, "player": "Max Sasson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8478465, "player": "Guillaume Brisebois", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8484798, "player": "Zeev Buium", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8479425, "player": "Filip Hronek", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8483768, "player": "Victor Mancini", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8476467, "player": "Jamie Oleksiak", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8483678, "player": "Elias Pettersson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8474568, "player": "Luke Schenn", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8484240, "player": "Tom Willander", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8477967, "player": "Thatcher Demko", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8480947, "player": "Kevin Lankinen", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8482447, "player": "Leevi Meril\u00e4inen", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Vancouver Canucks", "abbreviation": "VAN", "player": "Filip Chytil", "player_id": "4233643", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-25T21:40Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/22/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.172523+00:00" }, { "team": "Vancouver Canucks", "abbreviation": "VAN", "player": "Akil Thomas", "player_id": "4378682", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:05Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/22/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.172523+00:00" }, { "team": "Vancouver Canucks", "abbreviation": "VAN", "player": "Mackenzie MacEachern", "player_id": "3069342", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:03Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/22/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.172523+00:00" }, { "team": "Vancouver Canucks", "abbreviation": "VAN", "player": "Jack Thompson", "player_id": "4697776", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:06Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/22/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.172523+00:00" }, { "team": "Vancouver Canucks", "abbreviation": "VAN", "player": "Thatcher Demko", "player_id": "3096217", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T17:58Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/22/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.172523+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8480078, "incumbent": "Filip Chytil", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-25T21:40Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8484798, "player": "Zeev Buium", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 983, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474568, "player": "Luke Schenn", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 631, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 39 }, { "player_id": 8484136, "player": "Max Sasson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 583, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 108 }, { "player_id": 8483395, "player": "Arshdeep Bains", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 655, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476467, "player": "Jamie Oleksiak", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 980, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 30 }, { "player_id": 8481032, "player": "Paul Cotter", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 155, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483476, "player": "Jonathan Lekkerimaki", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 723, "PP_seconds": 272, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483678, "player": "Elias Pettersson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 879, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 118 }, { "player_id": 8480012, "player": "Elias Pettersson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 760, "PP_seconds": 258, "SH_seconds": 245 }, { "player_id": 8482079, "player": "Marco Rossi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 880, "PP_seconds": 169, "SH_seconds": 33 }, { "player_id": 8475848, "player": "Brendan Gallagher", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 693, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484240, "player": "Tom Willander", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1243, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 109 }, { "player_id": 8482055, "player": "Drew O'Connor", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 696, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 199 }, { "player_id": 8483499, "player": "Liam Ohgren", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 697, "PP_seconds": 192, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478444, "player": "Brock Boeser", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 742, "PP_seconds": 255, "SH_seconds": 72 }, { "player_id": 8479425, "player": "Filip Hronek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 945, "PP_seconds": 256, "SH_seconds": 292 }, { "player_id": 8481024, "player": "Linus Karlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 591, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478498, "player": "Jake DeBrusk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 699, "PP_seconds": 278, "SH_seconds": 55 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8480078, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480078/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 9, "avgToi": "14:20", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.456576, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 41, "goals": 11, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 14, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 20, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.123596, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 89, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Rangers" }, "teamName": { "default": "New York Rangers", "fr": "Rangers de New York" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New York", "fr": "de New York" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "16:42", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.496894, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 15, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -11, "points": 6, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.045455, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 44, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canucks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Vancouver Canucks", "fr": "Canucks de Vancouver" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vancouver", "fr": "de Vancouver" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "15:00", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.491803, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 12, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.125, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 24, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canucks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Vancouver Canucks", "fr": "Canucks de Vancouver" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vancouver", "fr": "de Vancouver" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8480851, "incumbent": "Akil Thomas", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:05Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8484798, "player": "Zeev Buium", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 983, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474568, "player": "Luke Schenn", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 631, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 39 }, { "player_id": 8484136, "player": "Max Sasson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 583, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 108 }, { "player_id": 8483395, "player": "Arshdeep Bains", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 655, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476467, "player": "Jamie Oleksiak", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 980, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 30 }, { "player_id": 8481032, "player": "Paul Cotter", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 155, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483476, "player": "Jonathan Lekkerimaki", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 723, "PP_seconds": 272, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483678, "player": "Elias Pettersson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 879, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 118 }, { "player_id": 8480012, "player": "Elias Pettersson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 760, "PP_seconds": 258, "SH_seconds": 245 }, { "player_id": 8482079, "player": "Marco Rossi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 880, "PP_seconds": 169, "SH_seconds": 33 }, { "player_id": 8475848, "player": "Brendan Gallagher", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 693, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484240, "player": "Tom Willander", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1243, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 109 }, { "player_id": 8482055, "player": "Drew O'Connor", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 696, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 199 }, { "player_id": 8483499, "player": "Liam Ohgren", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 697, "PP_seconds": 192, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478444, "player": "Brock Boeser", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 742, "PP_seconds": 255, "SH_seconds": 72 }, { "player_id": 8479425, "player": "Filip Hronek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 945, "PP_seconds": 256, "SH_seconds": 292 }, { "player_id": 8481024, "player": "Linus Karlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 591, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478498, "player": "Jake DeBrusk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 699, "PP_seconds": 278, "SH_seconds": 55 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8480851, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480851/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "9:55", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.439024, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 25, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 7, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.05, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 20, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Los Angeles Kings", "fr": "Kings de Los Angeles" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Los Angeles", "fr": "de Los Angeles" } }, { "assists": 9, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 19, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 13, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Ontario Reign" } }, { "assists": 3, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 12, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 6, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Springfield Thunderbirds" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" }, { "incumbent_id": 8476907, "incumbent": "Mackenzie MacEachern", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:03Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8484798, "player": "Zeev Buium", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 983, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474568, "player": "Luke Schenn", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 631, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 39 }, { "player_id": 8484136, "player": "Max Sasson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 583, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 108 }, { "player_id": 8483395, "player": "Arshdeep Bains", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 655, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476467, "player": "Jamie Oleksiak", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 980, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 30 }, { "player_id": 8481032, "player": "Paul Cotter", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 155, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483476, "player": "Jonathan Lekkerimaki", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 723, "PP_seconds": 272, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483678, "player": "Elias Pettersson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 879, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 118 }, { "player_id": 8480012, "player": "Elias Pettersson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 760, "PP_seconds": 258, "SH_seconds": 245 }, { "player_id": 8482079, "player": "Marco Rossi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 880, "PP_seconds": 169, "SH_seconds": 33 }, { "player_id": 8475848, "player": "Brendan Gallagher", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 693, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484240, "player": "Tom Willander", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1243, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 109 }, { "player_id": 8482055, "player": "Drew O'Connor", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 696, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 199 }, { "player_id": 8483499, "player": "Liam Ohgren", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 697, "PP_seconds": 192, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478444, "player": "Brock Boeser", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 742, "PP_seconds": 255, "SH_seconds": 72 }, { "player_id": 8479425, "player": "Filip Hronek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 945, "PP_seconds": 256, "SH_seconds": 292 }, { "player_id": 8481024, "player": "Linus Karlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 591, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478498, "player": "Jake DeBrusk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 699, "PP_seconds": 278, "SH_seconds": 55 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8476907, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8476907/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 20, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 40, "goals": 12, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 54, "plusMinus": 14, "points": 32, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Springfield Thunderbirds" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "10:11", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.5, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 12, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.166667, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 6, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canucks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Vancouver Canucks", "fr": "Canucks de Vancouver" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vancouver", "fr": "de Vancouver" } }, { "assists": 2, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 21, "goals": 6, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 8, "plusMinus": -9, "points": 8, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Abbotsford Canucks" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" }, { "incumbent_id": 8482144, "incumbent": "Jack Thompson", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:06Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8484798, "player": "Zeev Buium", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 983, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474568, "player": "Luke Schenn", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 631, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 39 }, { "player_id": 8484136, "player": "Max Sasson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 583, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 108 }, { "player_id": 8483395, "player": "Arshdeep Bains", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 655, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476467, "player": "Jamie Oleksiak", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 980, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 30 }, { "player_id": 8481032, "player": "Paul Cotter", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 155, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483476, "player": "Jonathan Lekkerimaki", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 723, "PP_seconds": 272, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483678, "player": "Elias Pettersson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 879, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 118 }, { "player_id": 8480012, "player": "Elias Pettersson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 760, "PP_seconds": 258, "SH_seconds": 245 }, { "player_id": 8482079, "player": "Marco Rossi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 880, "PP_seconds": 169, "SH_seconds": 33 }, { "player_id": 8475848, "player": "Brendan Gallagher", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 693, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484240, "player": "Tom Willander", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1243, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 109 }, { "player_id": 8482055, "player": "Drew O'Connor", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 696, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 199 }, { "player_id": 8483499, "player": "Liam Ohgren", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 697, "PP_seconds": 192, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478444, "player": "Brock Boeser", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 742, "PP_seconds": 255, "SH_seconds": 72 }, { "player_id": 8479425, "player": "Filip Hronek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 945, "PP_seconds": 256, "SH_seconds": 292 }, { "player_id": 8481024, "player": "Linus Karlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 591, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478498, "player": "Jake DeBrusk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 699, "PP_seconds": 278, "SH_seconds": 55 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8482144, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482144/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "15:47", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 31, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 10, "plusMinus": -9, "points": 10, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.097561, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 41, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sharks" }, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Sharks", "fr": "Sharks de San Jose" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "San Jose", "fr": "de San Jose" } }, { "assists": 11, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 27, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 14, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Barracuda" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Barracuda" } }, { "assists": 9, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 42, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 12, "plusMinus": 13, "points": 12, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Barracuda" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8474568, 8475848, 8476467, 8476907, 8477967, 8478444, 8478465, 8478498, 8479425, 8480012, 8480078, 8480851, 8480947, 8481024, 8481032, 8482055, 8482079, 8482144, 8482447, 8482691, 8483395, 8483476, 8483499, 8483678, 8483768, 8484136, 8484240, 8484798 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 76, "points": 7, "skaterFullName": "Luke Schenn", "goals": 1, "evGoals": 1, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "NSH,WPG", "shots": 77, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 6, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.01298, "evPoints": 7, "playerId": 8474568, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 957.1973, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 38, "skaterFullName": "Brendan Gallagher", "goals": 21, "evGoals": 16, "ppGoals": 5, "teamAbbrevs": "MTL", "shots": 148, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 17, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 7, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.14189, "evPoints": 31, "playerId": 8475848, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 834.8658, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 17, "skaterFullName": "Jamie Oleksiak", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 4, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "SEA", "shots": 66, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 13, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0606, "evPoints": 17, "playerId": 8476467, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1126.5731, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 75, "points": 50, "skaterFullName": "Brock Boeser", "goals": 25, "evGoals": 16, "ppGoals": 9, "teamAbbrevs": "VAN", "shots": 145, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 25, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 20, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.17241, "evPoints": 30, "playerId": 8478444, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1089.68, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 3, "points": 0, "skaterFullName": "Guillaume Brisebois", "goals": 0, "evGoals": 0, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "VAN", "shots": 2, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 0, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.0, "evPoints": 0, "playerId": 8478465, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 948.3333, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 48, "skaterFullName": "Jake DeBrusk", "goals": 28, "evGoals": 14, "ppGoals": 14, "teamAbbrevs": "VAN", "shots": 171, "otGoals": 2, "assists": 20, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 19, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "shootingPct": 0.16374, "evPoints": 29, "playerId": 8478498, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 998.9512, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 61, "points": 33, "skaterFullName": "Filip Hronek", 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"opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892510", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.922035101303394, 3.640424570912376 ], "Primary": [ 2.801937576681356, 3.727893556237517 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.9512150000000004, 3.41463 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.9512150000000004, 3.41463 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020112, "team": "FLA", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 1041, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1041.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020091, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Forsling", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CBJ", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478055, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 70, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 70.0, "shTimeOnIce": 65, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 65.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Gustav Forsling", "teamAbbrev": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 1176, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1176.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 900, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 900.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", 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27.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Seth Jones", "teamAbbrev": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 1394, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1394.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.62962 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 570, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 570.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020091, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Lafferty", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CBJ", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478043, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 15, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Sam Lafferty", "teamAbbrev": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 570, "timeOnIcePerGame": 570.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 951, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 951.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020091, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Ekblad", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CBJ", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477932, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 192, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 192.0, "shTimeOnIce": 144, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 144.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Aaron Ekblad", "teamAbbrev": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 1287, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1287.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 728, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 728.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020091, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Verhaeghe", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CBJ", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477409, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 376, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 376.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Carter Verhaeghe", "teamAbbrev": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 1104, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1104.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.2 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 600, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 600.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020091, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Imama", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CBJ", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478147, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 14, "shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Bokondji Imama", "teamAbbrev": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 600, "timeOnIcePerGame": 600.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.85714 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 645, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 645.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020091, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Tkachuk", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CBJ", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480801, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 323, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 323.0, "shTimeOnIce": 11, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 11.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Brady Tkachuk", "teamAbbrev": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 979, "timeOnIcePerGame": 979.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 690, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 690.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020091, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Eller", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CBJ", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8474189, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 216, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 216.0, "shTimeOnIce": 85, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 85.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Lars Eller", "teamAbbrev": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 991, "timeOnIcePerGame": 991.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.15789 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8478055, "player": "Gustav Forsling", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1041, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 65 }, { "player_id": 8484304, "player": "Uvis Balinskis", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 900, "PP_seconds": 58, "SH_seconds": 21 }, { "player_id": 8483771, "player": "Sandis Vilmanis", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 57, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480185, "player": "Eetu Luostarinen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 232, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8479314, "player": "Matthew Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 702, "PP_seconds": 325, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8482113, "player": "Anton Lundell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 764, "PP_seconds": 216, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8477933, "player": "Sam Reinhart", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 369, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8478859, "player": "Niko Mikkola", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 965, "PP_seconds": 10, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8477903, "player": "Garnet Hathaway", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 565, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8475179, "player": "Dmitry Kulikov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 21 }, { "player_id": 8477935, "player": "Sam Bennett", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 706, "PP_seconds": 220, "SH_seconds": 22 }, { "player_id": 8477495, "player": "Seth Jones", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 909, "PP_seconds": 326, "SH_seconds": 159 }, { "player_id": 8478043, "player": "Sam Lafferty", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 570, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477932, "player": "Aaron Ekblad", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 192, "SH_seconds": 144 }, { "player_id": 8477409, "player": "Carter Verhaeghe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 728, "PP_seconds": 376, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478147, "player": "Bokondji Imama", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 600, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480801, "player": "Brady Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 645, "PP_seconds": 323, "SH_seconds": 11 }, { "player_id": 8474189, "player": "Lars Eller", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 690, "PP_seconds": 216, "SH_seconds": 85 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 13810, "PP_seconds": 2990, "SH_seconds": 960 }, "conditional_branches": [], "return_branches": "Any return depends on current official clearance; prior actual role samples retained, future minutes unestimated.", "PP_units": "Unknown final units; official actual strength exposure retained, no roster-order inference", "line_combinations": "Latest actual official skaters and retained prior previews; October15 final lines not announced.", "OT_note": "Observed workload includes any OT; not a forecast of penalties or OT." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020091, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "playerId": 8480801, "name": { "default": "B. Tkachuk" }, "position": "L", "goals": 3, "assists": 1, "points": 4, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "toi": "16:19", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020091, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "playerId": 8477935, "name": { "default": "S. Bennett" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:48", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020091, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "playerId": 8477933, "name": { "default": "S. 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Lundell" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:34", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020091, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "playerId": 8478043, "name": { "default": "S. Lafferty" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:30", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020091, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "playerId": 8479314, "name": { "default": "M. Tkachuk" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 5, "points": 5, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:20", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020091, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "playerId": 8474189, "name": { "default": "L. Eller" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:31", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020091, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "playerId": 8477903, "name": { "default": "G. Hathaway" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:49", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020091, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "playerId": 8477409, "name": { "default": "C. Verhaeghe" }, "position": "C", "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "points": 2, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "18:24", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020091, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "playerId": 8480185, "name": { "default": "E. Luostarinen" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:47", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020091, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "playerId": 8483771, "name": { "default": "S. Vilmanis" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:25", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020091, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "playerId": 8477495, "name": { "default": "S. Jones" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 4, "points": 4, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:14", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020091, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "playerId": 8477932, "name": { "default": "A. Ekblad" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:27", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020091, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "playerId": 8475179, "name": { "default": "D. Kulikov" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:08", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020091, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "playerId": 8484304, "name": { "default": "U. Balinskis" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:19", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020091, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "playerId": 8478055, "name": { "default": "G. Forsling" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:36", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020091, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "playerId": 8478859, "name": { "default": "N. Mikkola" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:25", "shifts": 24 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.922035101303394, 3.640424570912376 ], "Primary": [ 2.801937576681356, 3.727893556237517 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.9512150000000004, 3.41463 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.9512150000000004, 3.41463 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020091/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477493/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475462/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8473419/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479981/landing" ], "findings": "Barkov/Marchand absent; Bennett/Lundell/Reinhart and Vilmanis/Lafferty redistribution; Gudas DTD conditional. Markstrom separate goalie flag.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477493, "player": "Aleksander Barkov", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477935, "player": "Sam Bennett", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8474189, "player": "Lars Eller", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8479981, "player": "Jonah Gadjovich", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477903, "player": "Garnet Hathaway", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8478147, "player": "Bokondji Imama", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8478043, "player": "Sam Lafferty", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8482113, "player": "Anton Lundell", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8480185, "player": "Eetu Luostarinen", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8473419, "player": "Brad Marchand", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477933, "player": "Sam Reinhart", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8480801, "player": "Brady Tkachuk", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8479314, "player": "Matthew Tkachuk", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477409, "player": "Carter Verhaeghe", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8483771, "player": "Sandis Vilmanis", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8484304, "player": "Uvis Balinskis", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477932, "player": "Aaron Ekblad", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8478055, "player": "Gustav Forsling", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8475462, "player": "Radko Gudas", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477495, "player": "Seth Jones", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8475179, "player": "Dmitry Kulikov", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8478859, "player": "Niko Mikkola", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8484900, "player": "Cooper Black", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8474593, "player": "Jacob Markstrom", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8481033, "player": "Akira Schmid", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Florida Panthers", "abbreviation": "FLA", "player": "Aleksander Barkov", "player_id": "3041970", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T18:38Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/26/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.908524+00:00" }, { "team": "Florida Panthers", "abbreviation": "FLA", "player": "Jonah Gadjovich", "player_id": "4233890", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-17T20:53Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/26/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.908524+00:00" }, { "team": "Florida Panthers", "abbreviation": "FLA", "player": "Brad Marchand", "player_id": "3852", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T21:11Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/26/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.908524+00:00" }, { "team": "Florida Panthers", "abbreviation": "FLA", "player": "Radko Gudas", "player_id": "5502", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/26/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.908524+00:00" }, { "team": "Florida Panthers", "abbreviation": "FLA", "player": "Jacob Markstrom", "player_id": "5452", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/26/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.908524+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8477493, "incumbent": "Aleksander Barkov", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T18:38Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478055, "player": "Gustav Forsling", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1041, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 65 }, { "player_id": 8484304, "player": "Uvis Balinskis", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 900, "PP_seconds": 58, "SH_seconds": 21 }, { "player_id": 8483771, "player": "Sandis Vilmanis", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 57, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480185, "player": "Eetu Luostarinen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 232, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8479314, "player": "Matthew Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 702, "PP_seconds": 325, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8482113, "player": "Anton Lundell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 764, "PP_seconds": 216, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8477933, "player": "Sam Reinhart", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 369, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8478859, "player": "Niko Mikkola", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 965, "PP_seconds": 10, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8477903, "player": "Garnet Hathaway", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 565, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8475179, "player": "Dmitry Kulikov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 21 }, { "player_id": 8477935, "player": "Sam Bennett", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 706, "PP_seconds": 220, "SH_seconds": 22 }, { "player_id": 8477495, "player": "Seth Jones", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 909, "PP_seconds": 326, "SH_seconds": 159 }, { "player_id": 8478043, "player": "Sam Lafferty", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 570, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477932, "player": "Aaron Ekblad", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 192, "SH_seconds": 144 }, { "player_id": 8477409, "player": "Carter Verhaeghe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 728, "PP_seconds": 376, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478147, "player": "Bokondji Imama", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 600, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480801, "player": "Brady Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 645, "PP_seconds": 323, "SH_seconds": 11 }, { "player_id": 8474189, "player": "Lars Eller", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 690, "PP_seconds": 216, "SH_seconds": 85 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8477493, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477493/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 51, "avgToi": "20:15", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.565302, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 67, "goals": 20, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 2, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 71, "powerPlayGoals": 9, "powerPlayPoints": 28, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.134228, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 4, "shots": 149, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "21:45", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.55, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "4 Nations", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 44, "shootingPctg": 0.11, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 9, "teamName": { "default": "Finland" } }, { "assists": 16, "avgToi": "20:29", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.58296, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 23, "goals": 6, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 22, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 8, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.133333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 45, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "14:54", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.538462, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8479981, "incumbent": "Jonah Gadjovich", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-17T20:53Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478055, "player": "Gustav Forsling", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1041, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 65 }, { "player_id": 8484304, "player": "Uvis Balinskis", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 900, "PP_seconds": 58, "SH_seconds": 21 }, { "player_id": 8483771, "player": "Sandis Vilmanis", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 57, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480185, "player": "Eetu Luostarinen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 232, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8479314, "player": "Matthew Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 702, "PP_seconds": 325, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8482113, "player": "Anton Lundell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 764, "PP_seconds": 216, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8477933, "player": "Sam Reinhart", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 369, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8478859, "player": "Niko Mikkola", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 965, "PP_seconds": 10, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8477903, "player": "Garnet Hathaway", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 565, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8475179, "player": "Dmitry Kulikov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 21 }, { "player_id": 8477935, "player": "Sam Bennett", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 706, "PP_seconds": 220, "SH_seconds": 22 }, { "player_id": 8477495, "player": "Seth Jones", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 909, "PP_seconds": 326, "SH_seconds": 159 }, { "player_id": 8478043, "player": "Sam Lafferty", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 570, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477932, "player": "Aaron Ekblad", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 192, "SH_seconds": 144 }, { "player_id": 8477409, "player": "Carter Verhaeghe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 728, "PP_seconds": 376, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478147, "player": "Bokondji Imama", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 600, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480801, "player": "Brady Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 645, "PP_seconds": 323, "SH_seconds": 11 }, { "player_id": 8474189, "player": "Lars Eller", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 690, "PP_seconds": 216, "SH_seconds": 85 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8479981, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479981/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "8:27", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.6, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 42, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 60, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.093023, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 43, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "7:37", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 16, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 33, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 10, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "7:57", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 7, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 8, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8473419, "incumbent": "Brad Marchand", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T21:11Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478055, "player": "Gustav Forsling", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1041, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 65 }, { "player_id": 8484304, "player": "Uvis Balinskis", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 900, "PP_seconds": 58, "SH_seconds": 21 }, { "player_id": 8483771, "player": "Sandis Vilmanis", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 57, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480185, "player": "Eetu Luostarinen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 232, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8479314, "player": "Matthew Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 702, "PP_seconds": 325, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8482113, "player": "Anton Lundell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 764, "PP_seconds": 216, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8477933, "player": "Sam Reinhart", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 369, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8478859, "player": "Niko Mikkola", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 965, "PP_seconds": 10, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8477903, "player": "Garnet Hathaway", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 565, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8475179, "player": "Dmitry Kulikov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 21 }, { "player_id": 8477935, "player": "Sam Bennett", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 706, "PP_seconds": 220, "SH_seconds": 22 }, { "player_id": 8477495, "player": "Seth Jones", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 909, "PP_seconds": 326, "SH_seconds": 159 }, { "player_id": 8478043, "player": "Sam Lafferty", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 570, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477932, "player": "Aaron Ekblad", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 192, "SH_seconds": 144 }, { "player_id": 8477409, "player": "Carter Verhaeghe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 728, "PP_seconds": 376, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478147, "player": "Bokondji Imama", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 600, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480801, "player": "Brady Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 645, "PP_seconds": 323, "SH_seconds": 11 }, { "player_id": 8474189, "player": "Lars Eller", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 690, "PP_seconds": 216, "SH_seconds": 85 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8473419, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8473419/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 26, "avgToi": "18:26", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.416667, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "gamesPlayed": 61, "goals": 21, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 2, "pim": 62, "plusMinus": -8, "points": 47, "powerPlayGoals": 5, "powerPlayPoints": 13, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.12, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 175, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Bruins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Boston Bruins", "fr": "Bruins de Boston" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Boston", "fr": "de Boston" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "17:37", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.105263, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 19, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "11:35", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "4 Nations", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 44, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 5, "teamName": { "default": "Canada" } }, { "assists": 10, "avgToi": "16:40", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 23, "goals": 10, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 2, "pim": 48, "plusMinus": 17, "points": 20, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.212766, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 47, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } }, { "assists": 27, "avgToi": "17:44", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.125, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 52, "goals": 27, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 38, "plusMinus": -16, "points": 54, "powerPlayGoals": 6, "powerPlayPoints": 20, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.195652, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 138, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "9:31", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 7, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canada", "cs": "Kanada", "de": "Kanada", "es": "Canad\u00e1", "fi": "Kanada", "sk": "Kanada", "sv": "Kanada" }, "teamName": { "default": "Canada", "cs": "Kanada", "de": "Kanada", "es": "Canad\u00e1", "fi": "Kanada", "sk": "Kanada", "sv": "Kanada" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "11:23", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 5, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8475462, "incumbent": "Radko Gudas", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478055, "player": "Gustav Forsling", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1041, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 65 }, { "player_id": 8484304, "player": "Uvis Balinskis", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 900, "PP_seconds": 58, "SH_seconds": 21 }, { "player_id": 8483771, "player": "Sandis Vilmanis", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 57, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480185, "player": "Eetu Luostarinen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 232, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8479314, "player": "Matthew Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 702, "PP_seconds": 325, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8482113, "player": "Anton Lundell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 764, "PP_seconds": 216, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8477933, "player": "Sam Reinhart", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 369, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8478859, "player": "Niko Mikkola", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 965, "PP_seconds": 10, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8477903, "player": "Garnet Hathaway", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 565, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8475179, "player": "Dmitry Kulikov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 21 }, { "player_id": 8477935, "player": "Sam Bennett", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 706, "PP_seconds": 220, "SH_seconds": 22 }, { "player_id": 8477495, "player": "Seth Jones", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 909, "PP_seconds": 326, "SH_seconds": 159 }, { "player_id": 8478043, "player": "Sam Lafferty", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 570, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477932, "player": "Aaron Ekblad", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 192, "SH_seconds": 144 }, { "player_id": 8477409, "player": "Carter Verhaeghe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 728, "PP_seconds": 376, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478147, "player": "Bokondji Imama", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 600, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480801, "player": "Brady Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 645, "PP_seconds": 323, "SH_seconds": 11 }, { "player_id": 8474189, "player": "Lars Eller", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 690, "PP_seconds": 216, "SH_seconds": 85 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8475462, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475462/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 15, "avgToi": "19:52", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 81, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 86, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 16, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.011236, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 89, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Ducks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Anaheim Ducks", "fr": "Ducks d'Anaheim" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Anaheim", "fr": "d'Anaheim" } }, { "assists": 11, "avgToi": "16:11", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 56, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", 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"Tch\u00e9quie", "sk": "\u010cesko", "sv": "Tjeckien" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "9:40", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Ducks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Anaheim Ducks", "fr": "Ducks d'Anaheim" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Anaheim", "fr": "d'Anaheim" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "13:08", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } } ] } } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8473419, 8474189, 8474593, 8475179, 8475462, 8477409, 8477493, 8477495, 8477903, 8477932, 8477933, 8477935, 8478043, 8478055, 8478147, 8478859, 8479314, 8479981, 8480185, 8480801, 8481033, 8482113, 8483771, 8484304, 8484900 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 71, "points": 51, "skaterFullName": "Brad Marchand", "goals": 23, "evGoals": 18, "ppGoals": 5, "teamAbbrevs": "BOS,FLA", "shots": 194, "otGoals": 2, "assists": 28, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 13, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "shootingPct": 0.11855, "evPoints": 37, "playerId": 8473419, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1099.4507, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 80, "points": 22, "skaterFullName": "Lars Eller", "goals": 10, "evGoals": 10, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "PIT,WSH", "shots": 104, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 12, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.09615, "evPoints": 21, "playerId": 8474189, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 797.4875, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 70, "points": 13, "skaterFullName": "Dmitry Kulikov", "goals": 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"https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 81, "points": 53, "skaterFullName": "Carter Verhaeghe", "goals": 20, "evGoals": 15, "ppGoals": 5, "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "shots": 242, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 33, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 16, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "shootingPct": 0.08264, "evPoints": 37, "playerId": 8477409, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1072.1481, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 67, "points": 71, "skaterFullName": "Aleksander Barkov", "goals": 20, "evGoals": 10, "ppGoals": 9, "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "shots": 149, "otGoals": 2, "assists": 51, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 28, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "shootingPct": 0.13422, "evPoints": 39, "playerId": 8477493, "shGoals": 1, "shPoints": 4, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1215.4776, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 63, "points": 36, "skaterFullName": "Seth Jones", "goals": 9, "evGoals": 4, "ppGoals": 5, "teamAbbrevs": "CHI,FLA", "shots": 129, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 27, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 19, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.06976, "evPoints": 17, "playerId": 8477495, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1478.492, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 67, "points": 21, "skaterFullName": "Garnet Hathaway", "goals": 10, "evGoals": 8, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "PHI", "shots": 80, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 11, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.125, "evPoints": 19, "playerId": 8477903, "shGoals": 2, "shPoints": 2, "timeOnIcePerGame": 711.8208, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 56, "points": 33, "skaterFullName": "Aaron Ekblad", "goals": 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"https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 76, "points": 51, "skaterFullName": "Sam Bennett", "goals": 25, "evGoals": 18, "ppGoals": 7, "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "shots": 241, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 26, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 11, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "shootingPct": 0.10373, "evPoints": 40, "playerId": 8477935, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1047.2105, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 60, "points": 7, "skaterFullName": "Sam Lafferty", "goals": 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8010, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1144.28571, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.01298 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1910, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 636.66666, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Lafferty", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478043, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 124, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 41.33333, "shifts": 48, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Sam Lafferty", "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 2034, "timeOnIcePerGame": 678.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.375 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6211, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1035.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Forsling", "otTimeOnIce": 209, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 104.5, "playerId": 8478055, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 254, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 42.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1123, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 187.16666, "shifts": 155, "shiftsPerGame": 25.83333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Gustav Forsling", "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 7588, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1264.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.95483 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3109, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 444.14285, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Imama", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8478147, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 75, "shiftsPerGame": 10.71428, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Bokondji Imama", "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 3109, "timeOnIcePerGame": 444.14285, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.45333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7029, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1004.14285, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Mikkola", "otTimeOnIce": 159, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 53.0, "playerId": 8478859, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 46, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.57142, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1132, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 161.71428, "shifts": 179, "shiftsPerGame": 25.57142, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Niko Mikkola", "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 8207, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1172.42857, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.84916 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5624, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 803.42857, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Tkachuk", "otTimeOnIce": 179, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 59.66666, "playerId": 8479314, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 2820, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 402.85714, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 15, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.14285, "shifts": 153, "shiftsPerGame": 21.85714, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Matthew Tkachuk", "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 8459, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1208.42857, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.28758 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5082, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 726.0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Luostarinen", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480185, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 928, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 132.57142, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 759, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 108.42857, "shifts": 148, "shiftsPerGame": 21.14285, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Eetu Luostarinen", "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 6769, "timeOnIcePerGame": 967.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.73648 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4829, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 689.85714, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Tkachuk", "otTimeOnIce": 60, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 20.0, "playerId": 8480801, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 2324, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 332.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 36, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.14285, "shifts": 150, "shiftsPerGame": 21.42857, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Brady Tkachuk", "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 7189, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1027.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.92666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5152, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 736.0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Lundell", "otTimeOnIce": 188, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 62.66666, "playerId": 8482113, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1601, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 228.71428, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 972, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 138.85714, "shifts": 165, "shiftsPerGame": 23.57142, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Anton Lundell", "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 7725, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1103.57142, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.81818 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5007, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 715.28571, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Vilmanis", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483771, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 207, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 29.57142, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 94, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 13.42857, "shifts": 117, "shiftsPerGame": 16.71428, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Sandis Vilmanis", "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 5308, "timeOnIcePerGame": 758.28571, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.36752 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3058, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 764.5, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Balinskis", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484304, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 388, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 97.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 38, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 9.5, "shifts": 75, "shiftsPerGame": 18.75, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Uvis Balinskis", "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "timeOnIce": 3484, "timeOnIcePerGame": 871.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.45333 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892510", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.922035101303394, 3.640424570912376 ], "Primary": [ 2.801937576681356, 3.727893556237517 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.9512150000000004, 3.41463 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.9512150000000004, 3.41463 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Vancouver Canucks at Florida Panthers", "market": { "id": "401892510", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892510", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.130710+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 110.0, "under_price": -130.0, "home_ml": -298.0, "away_ml": 240.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.7183894696089821, "combined": 6.56245967221577, "spread_buffer": -0.7816105303910179, "total_difference": 0.06245967221576976 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.7183894696089821, "combined": 6.56245967221577, "spread_buffer": -0.7816105303910179, "total_difference": 0.06245967221576976 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.9259559795561607, "combined": 6.529831132918873, "spread_buffer": -0.5740440204438393, "total_difference": 0.02983113291887296 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.9259559795561607, "combined": 6.529831132918873, "spread_buffer": -0.5740440204438393, "total_difference": 0.02983113291887296 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.46341499999999947, "combined": 6.365845, "spread_buffer": -1.0365850000000005, "total_difference": -0.1341549999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.46341499999999947, "combined": 6.365845, "spread_buffer": -1.0365850000000005, "total_difference": -0.1341549999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.46341499999999947, "combined": 6.365845, "spread_buffer": -1.0365850000000005, "total_difference": -0.1341549999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.46341499999999947, "combined": 6.365845, "spread_buffer": -1.0365850000000005, "total_difference": -0.1341549999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892511", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892511", "date": "2026-10-15T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1826", "fullName": "Prudential Center", "address": { "city": "Newark", "state": "NJ", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "away": "13", "away_name": "New York Rangers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "11", "home_name": "New Jersey Devils", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.033174752077191, 2.8253417314392926 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.033174752077191, 2.8253417314392926 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.033174752077191, 2.8253417314392926 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 8, "current_weight": 0.2857142857142857, "prior_rates": [ 2.902439024390244, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 3.375, 1.75 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 2.8048780487804876, 3.097560975609756 ], "current_rates": [ 2.6666666666666665, 3.6666666666666665 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0408536585365855, "mean_margin_error": 1.1651031894934332, "mean_total_error": 1.8578799249530955, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9756049999999998, 4.975605 ], "home": [ 0.8963349999999997, 4.896335 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.0483422383152963, 2.80193395674687 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0483422383152963, 2.80193395674687 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0483422383152963, 2.80193395674687 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2853, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-15T00:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "52c34c3445f9a414a983487152c4386aef5a0f4df759d280912f7f17468318de" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0580661730553012, "mean_margin_error": 1.1735321999404547, "mean_total_error": 1.9050370803767076, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9756049999999998, 4.975605 ], "home": [ 0.8963349999999997, 4.896335 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.975605, 2.8963349999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.975605, 2.8963349999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.975605, 2.8963349999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.86585, "pa": 3.03658, "official_team_id": 3, "official_team_name": "New York Rangers" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.75609, "pa": 3.08536, "official_team_id": 1, "official_team_name": "New Jersey Devils" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9756049999999998, 4.975605 ], "home": [ 0.8963349999999997, 4.896335 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.975605, 2.8963349999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.975605, 2.8963349999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.975605, 2.8963349999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.86585, "pa": 3.03658, "official_team_id": 3, "official_team_name": "New York Rangers" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.75609, "pa": 3.08536, "official_team_id": 1, "official_team_name": "New Jersey Devils" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9756049999999998, 4.975605 ], "home": [ 0.8963349999999997, 4.896335 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "NYR: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. NJD: Evangelista new DTD versus actual top-line reference; conditional exclusion. Brown/Bjugstad unavailable; old Siegenthaler flag compared with later play.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 8 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Prudential Center; listed 2026-10-15T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892511", "sport": "NHL", "away": "New York Rangers", "home": "New Jersey Devils", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1826", "fullName": "Prudential Center", "address": { "city": "Newark", "state": "NJ", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "New York Rangers", "previous_game": { "id": "401892493", "date": "2026-10-13T23:15Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "20", "away_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "away_score": 1.0, "home": "13", "home_name": "New York Rangers", "home_score": 4.0, "day": 20739.96875 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "New Jersey Devils", "previous_game": { "id": "401892488", "date": "2026-10-13T22:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "5404", "fullName": "Little Caesars Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Detroit", "state": "MI", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "11", "away_name": "New Jersey Devils", "away_score": 5.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "Detroit Red Wings", "home_score": 4.0, "day": 20739.916666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. 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"https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=200", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/11/roster", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/13/roster", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/" ], "tu": { "id": "401892511", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892511", "date": "2026-10-15T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1826", "fullName": "Prudential Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Newark", "state": "NJ", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "13", "away_name": "New York Rangers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "11", "home_name": "New Jersey Devils", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": 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Smits" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:55", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8479323, "name": { "default": "A. Fox" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:22", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8477969, "name": { "default": "M. Pettersson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:44", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020095, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "playerId": 8478882, "name": { "default": "V. Gavrikov" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:28", "shifts": 26 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.033174752077191, 2.8253417314392926 ], "Primary": [ 3.0483422383152963, 2.80193395674687 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.975605, 2.8963349999999997 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.975605, 2.8963349999999997 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020095/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480813/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483669/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480813/landing" ], "findings": "Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8477416, "player": "Oliver Bjorkstrand", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8482877, "player": "Jaroslav Chmelar", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8482157, "player": "Will Cuylle", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8481604, "player": "Pavel Dorofeyev", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8475413, "player": "Justin Dowling", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8481789, "player": "Tye Kartye", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8483690, "player": "Noah Laba", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8482109, "player": "Alexis Lafreni\u00e8re", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8476468, "player": "J.T. Miller", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8484210, "player": "Gabe Perreault", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8482460, "player": "Matt Rempe", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8483669, "player": "Adam Sykora", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8480009, "player": "Eeli Tolvanen", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8480813, "player": "Joseph Veleno", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8476459, "player": "Mika Zibanejad", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8480434, "player": "Sean Durzi", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8479323, "player": "Adam Fox", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8478882, "player": "Vladislav Gavrikov", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8482666, "player": "Scott Morrow", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8477969, "player": "Marcus Pettersson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8482073, "player": "Braden Schneider", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8485957, "player": "Alberts Smits", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8482193, "player": "Dylan Garand", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8476914, "player": "Joonas Korpisalo", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8477484, "player": "Spencer Martin", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8478048, "player": "Igor Shesterkin", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "New York Rangers", "abbreviation": "NYR", "player": "Joe Veleno", "player_id": "4352804", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T17:18Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/13/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.952465+00:00" }, { "team": "New York Rangers", "abbreviation": "NYR", "player": "Adam Sykora", "player_id": "5080232", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T01:35Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/13/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.952465+00:00" }, { "team": "New York Rangers", "abbreviation": "NYR", "player": "Joonas Korpisalo", "player_id": "3069266", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T17:11Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/13/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.952465+00:00" }, { "team": "New York Rangers", "abbreviation": "NYR", "player": "Igor Shesterkin", "player_id": "3151297", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-11T21:06Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/13/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.952465+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8480813, "incumbent": "Joe Veleno", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T17:18Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8483690, "player": "Noah Laba", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 890, "PP_seconds": 30, "SH_seconds": 145 }, { "player_id": 8480009, "player": "Eeli Tolvanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 707, "PP_seconds": 32, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8484786, "player": "Cole Beaudoin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 209, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482157, "player": "Will Cuylle", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 813, "PP_seconds": 74, "SH_seconds": 132 }, { "player_id": 8478882, "player": "Vladislav Gavrikov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1029, "PP_seconds": 37, "SH_seconds": 162 }, { "player_id": 8485957, "player": "Alberts Smits", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 715, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479323, "player": "Adam Fox", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 872, "PP_seconds": 322, "SH_seconds": 148 }, { "player_id": 8482073, "player": "Braden Schneider", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 841, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 108 }, { "player_id": 8482460, "player": "Matt Rempe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 223, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482109, "player": "Alexis Lafreni\u00e8re", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 834, "PP_seconds": 329, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477969, "player": "Marcus Pettersson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1066, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 235 }, { "player_id": 8481789, "player": "Tye Kartye", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 817, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 164 }, { "player_id": 8480434, "player": "Sean Durzi", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1072, "PP_seconds": 69, "SH_seconds": 129 }, { "player_id": 8484210, "player": "Gabe Perreault", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 988, "PP_seconds": 207, "SH_seconds": 1 }, { "player_id": 8476459, "player": "Mika Zibanejad", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 957, "PP_seconds": 317, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8477416, "player": "Oliver Bjorkstrand", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 390, "PP_seconds": 65, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476468, "player": "J.T. Miller", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 323, "SH_seconds": 112 }, { "player_id": 8481604, "player": "Pavel Dorofeyev", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 809, "PP_seconds": 147, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8480813, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480813/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 5, "avgToi": "11:57", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.472222, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 56, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 13, "plusMinus": -14, "points": 10, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.1, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 50, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "12:38", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.460993, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 18, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -9, "points": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.12, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 25, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "12:05", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.515823, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 61, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 19, "plusMinus": -12, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.038462, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 52, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canadiens" }, "teamName": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "fr": "Canadiens de Montr\u00e9al" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al", "fr": "de Montr\u00e9al" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "8:47", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.619048, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 9, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canadiens" }, "teamName": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "fr": "Canadiens de Montr\u00e9al" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al", "fr": "de Montr\u00e9al" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "11:37", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.538462, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Rangers" }, "teamName": { "default": "New York Rangers", "fr": "Rangers de New York" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New York", "fr": "de New York" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" }, { "incumbent_id": 8483669, "incumbent": "Adam Sykora", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T01:35Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8483690, "player": "Noah Laba", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 890, "PP_seconds": 30, "SH_seconds": 145 }, { "player_id": 8480009, "player": "Eeli Tolvanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 707, "PP_seconds": 32, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8484786, "player": "Cole Beaudoin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 209, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482157, "player": "Will Cuylle", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 813, "PP_seconds": 74, "SH_seconds": 132 }, { "player_id": 8478882, "player": "Vladislav Gavrikov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1029, "PP_seconds": 37, "SH_seconds": 162 }, { "player_id": 8485957, "player": "Alberts Smits", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 715, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479323, "player": "Adam Fox", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 872, "PP_seconds": 322, "SH_seconds": 148 }, { "player_id": 8482073, "player": "Braden Schneider", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 841, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 108 }, { "player_id": 8482460, "player": "Matt Rempe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 223, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482109, "player": "Alexis Lafreni\u00e8re", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 834, "PP_seconds": 329, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477969, "player": "Marcus Pettersson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1066, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 235 }, { "player_id": 8481789, "player": "Tye Kartye", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 817, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 164 }, { "player_id": 8480434, "player": "Sean Durzi", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1072, "PP_seconds": 69, "SH_seconds": 129 }, { "player_id": 8484210, "player": "Gabe Perreault", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 988, "PP_seconds": 207, "SH_seconds": 1 }, { "player_id": 8476459, "player": "Mika Zibanejad", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 957, "PP_seconds": 317, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8477416, "player": "Oliver Bjorkstrand", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 390, "PP_seconds": 65, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476468, "player": "J.T. Miller", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 323, "SH_seconds": 112 }, { "player_id": 8481604, "player": "Pavel Dorofeyev", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 809, "PP_seconds": 147, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8483669, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483669/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 21, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 71, "goals": 9, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 8, "plusMinus": -23, "points": 30, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Hartford Wolf Pack" } }, { "assists": 2, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "OGQ", "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "Slovakia" } }, { "assists": 1, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 7, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 13, "teamName": { "default": "Slovakia" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "11:10", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.5, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 11, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 5, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 15, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Rangers" }, "teamName": { "default": "New York Rangers", "fr": "Rangers de New York" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New York", "fr": "de New York" } }, { "assists": 17, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 62, "goals": 12, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 28, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 29, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Hartford Wolf Pack" } } ] } } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8475413, 8476459, 8476468, 8476914, 8477416, 8477484, 8477969, 8478048, 8478882, 8479323, 8480009, 8480434, 8480813, 8481604, 8481789, 8482073, 8482109, 8482157, 8482193, 8482460, 8482666, 8482877, 8483669, 8483690, 8484210, 8484786, 8485957 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 52, "points": 7, "skaterFullName": "Justin Dowling", "goals": 2, "evGoals": 2, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "shots": 34, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 5, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.05882, "evPoints": 7, "playerId": 8475413, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 613.3653, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 62, "skaterFullName": "Mika Zibanejad", "goals": 20, "evGoals": 13, "ppGoals": 7, "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "shots": 183, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 42, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 19, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.10928, "evPoints": 37, "playerId": 8476459, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 6, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1125.7439, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 72, "points": 70, "skaterFullName": "J.T. 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"stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 81, "points": 35, "skaterFullName": "Eeli Tolvanen", "goals": 23, "evGoals": 21, "ppGoals": 2, "teamAbbrevs": "SEA", "shots": 137, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 12, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 5, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.16788, "evPoints": 30, "playerId": 8480009, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 859.1975, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 30, "points": 11, "skaterFullName": "Sean Durzi", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 3, "ppGoals": 1, "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "shots": 39, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 7, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.10256, "evPoints": 9, "playerId": 8480434, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1238.8666, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 74, "points": 17, "skaterFullName": "Joseph Veleno", "goals": 8, "evGoals": 8, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "DET,CHI", "shots": 75, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 9, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.10666, "evPoints": 17, "playerId": 8480813, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 727.0945, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 52, "skaterFullName": "Pavel Dorofeyev", "goals": 35, "evGoals": 22, "ppGoals": 13, "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "shots": 254, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 17, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 17, "gameWinningGoals": 7, "shootingPct": 0.13779, "evPoints": 35, "playerId": 8481604, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 991.5975, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 63, "points": 13, "skaterFullName": "Tye Kartye", "goals": 6, "evGoals": 5, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "SEA", "shots": 56, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 7, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.10714, "evPoints": 12, "playerId": 8481789, "shGoals": 1, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 580.8571, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 80, "points": 21, "skaterFullName": "Braden Schneider", "goals": 6, "evGoals": 5, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "shots": 95, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 15, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.06315, "evPoints": 19, "playerId": 8482073, "shGoals": 1, "shPoints": 2, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1072.0125, "game_type": 2, 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2.8963349999999997 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020113, "team": "NJD", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 704, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 704.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020090, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Noesen", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476474, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Stefan Noesen", "teamAbbrev": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 704, "timeOnIcePerGame": 704.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.11111 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 960, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 960.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", 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Mercer" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:17", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8483695, "name": { "default": "A. Lombardi" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:04", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8476462, "name": { "default": "D. Hamilton" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:32", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8480192, "name": { "default": "J. Kovacevic" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:00", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8477488, "name": { "default": "B. Pesce" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:50", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8482684, "name": { "default": "L. Hughes" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "25:24", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8480990, "name": { "default": "D. Chisholm" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:32", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8478399, "name": { "default": "J. Siegenthaler" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:24", "shifts": 23 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.033174752077191, 2.8253417314392926 ], "Primary": [ 3.0483422383152963, 2.80193395674687 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.975605, 2.8963349999999997 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.975605, 2.8963349999999997 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478399/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477015/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482146/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475760/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483429/landing" ], "findings": "Evangelista new DTD versus actual top-line reference; conditional exclusion. Brown/Bjugstad unavailable; old Siegenthaler flag compared with later play.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8480003, "player": "Jesper Boqvist", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8479407, "player": "Jesper Bratt", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8477015, "player": "Connor Brown", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8482146, "player": "Luke Evangelista", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8479996, "player": "Cody Glass", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8481721, "player": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8480002, "player": "Nico Hischier", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8481559, "player": "Jack Hughes", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8483695, "player": "Amadeus Lombardi", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8477511, "player": "Anthony Mantha", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8478414, "player": "Timo Meier", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8482110, "player": "Dawson Mercer", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8476474, "player": "Stefan Noesen", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8478542, "player": "Evan Rodrigues", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8480990, "player": "Declan Chisholm", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8475455, "player": "Brenden Dillon", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8476462, "player": "Dougie Hamilton", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8482684, "player": "Luke Hughes", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8480192, "player": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8477488, "player": "Brett Pesce", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8478399, "player": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8474596, "player": "Jake Allen", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8482076, "player": "Nico Daws", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8482465, "player": "R\u00e9mi Poirier", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "New Jersey Devils", "abbreviation": "NJ", "player": "Nick Bjugstad", "player_id": "5828", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-09T22:49Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/11/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.940399+00:00" }, { "team": "New Jersey Devils", "abbreviation": "NJ", "player": "Connor Brown", "player_id": "3067951", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T14:16Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/11/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.940399+00:00" }, { "team": "New Jersey Devils", "abbreviation": "NJ", "player": "Luke Evangelista", "player_id": "4697446", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/11/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.940399+00:00" }, { "team": "New Jersey Devils", "abbreviation": "NJ", "player": "Seamus Casey", "player_id": "5080212", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-02T17:31Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/11/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.940399+00:00" }, { "team": "New Jersey Devils", "abbreviation": "NJ", "player": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "player_id": "3904190", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T17:29Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/11/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.940399+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8475760, "incumbent": "Nick Bjugstad", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-09T22:49Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476474, "player": "Stefan Noesen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 704, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480192, "player": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 960, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479996, "player": "Cody Glass", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 581, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8477488, "player": "Brett Pesce", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1384, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8480003, "player": "Jesper Boqvist", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 636, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478414, "player": "Timo Meier", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 892, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476462, "player": "Dougie Hamilton", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1158, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 74 }, { "player_id": 8482110, "player": "Dawson Mercer", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 991, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8480002, "player": "Nico Hischier", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 863, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 73 }, { "player_id": 8478399, "player": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1090, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 74 }, { "player_id": 8477511, "player": "Anthony Mantha", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 743, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483695, "player": "Amadeus Lombardi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 604, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481721, "player": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1167, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480990, "player": "Declan Chisholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 932, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481559, "player": "Jack Hughes", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1365, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478542, "player": "Evan Rodrigues", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 750, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8479407, "player": "Jesper Bratt", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1170, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482684, "player": "Luke Hughes", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1431, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 47 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8475760, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475760/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 11, "avgToi": "12:19", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.473684, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 66, "goals": 8, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 19, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.069565, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 115, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Utah Hockey Club", "fr": "Club de hockey de l'Utah" }, "teamName": { "default": "Utah Hockey Club", "fr": "Club de hockey de l'Utah" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Utah", "fr": "de l'Utah" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "11:38", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.51145, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 35, "goals": 6, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 25, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.111111, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 54, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blues" }, "teamName": { "default": "St. Louis Blues", "fr": "Blues de St. Louis" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "St. Louis", "fr": "de St. Louis" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "10:00", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.460674, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 26, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 23, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "teamName": { "default": "New Jersey Devils", "fr": "Devils du New Jersey" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" }, { "incumbent_id": 8477015, "incumbent": "Connor Brown", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T14:16Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476474, "player": "Stefan Noesen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 704, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480192, "player": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 960, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479996, "player": "Cody Glass", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 581, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8477488, "player": "Brett Pesce", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1384, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8480003, "player": "Jesper Boqvist", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 636, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478414, "player": "Timo Meier", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 892, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476462, "player": "Dougie Hamilton", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1158, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 74 }, { "player_id": 8482110, "player": "Dawson Mercer", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 991, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8480002, "player": "Nico Hischier", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 863, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 73 }, { "player_id": 8478399, "player": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1090, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 74 }, { "player_id": 8477511, "player": "Anthony Mantha", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 743, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483695, "player": "Amadeus Lombardi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 604, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481721, "player": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1167, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480990, "player": "Declan Chisholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 932, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481559, "player": "Jack Hughes", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1365, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478542, "player": "Evan Rodrigues", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 750, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8479407, "player": "Jesper Bratt", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1170, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482684, "player": "Luke Hughes", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1431, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 47 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8477015, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477015/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 17, "avgToi": "14:01", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.363636, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 13, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 10, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 30, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.105691, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 123, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "15:41", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.533333, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 20, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 9, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.185185, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 27, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 25, "avgToi": "17:33", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.307692, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 75, "goals": 18, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 43, "powerPlayGoals": 4, "powerPlayPoints": 8, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.155172, "shorthandedGoals": 2, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 116, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "teamName": { "default": "New Jersey Devils", "fr": "Devils du New Jersey" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8482146, "incumbent": "Luke Evangelista", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476474, "player": "Stefan Noesen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 704, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480192, "player": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 960, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479996, "player": "Cody Glass", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 581, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8477488, "player": "Brett Pesce", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1384, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8480003, "player": "Jesper Boqvist", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 636, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478414, "player": "Timo Meier", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 892, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476462, "player": "Dougie Hamilton", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1158, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 74 }, { "player_id": 8482110, "player": "Dawson Mercer", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 991, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8480002, "player": "Nico Hischier", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 863, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 73 }, { "player_id": 8478399, "player": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1090, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 74 }, { "player_id": 8477511, "player": "Anthony Mantha", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 743, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483695, "player": "Amadeus Lombardi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 604, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481721, "player": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1167, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480990, "player": "Declan Chisholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 932, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481559, "player": "Jack Hughes", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1365, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478542, "player": "Evan Rodrigues", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 750, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8479407, "player": "Jesper Bratt", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1170, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482684, "player": "Luke Hughes", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1431, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 47 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8482146, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482146/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 22, "avgToi": "13:52", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 68, "goals": 10, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 32, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 5, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.074627, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 134, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Predators" }, "teamName": { "default": "Nashville Predators", "fr": "Predators de Nashville" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Nashville", "fr": "de Nashville" } }, { "assists": 44, "avgToi": "16:37", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 81, "goals": 12, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 28, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 56, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 17, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.068182, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 176, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Predators" }, "teamName": { "default": "Nashville Predators", "fr": "Predators de Nashville" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Nashville", "fr": "de Nashville" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "17:13", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.166667, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 12, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "teamName": { "default": "New Jersey Devils", "fr": "Devils du New Jersey" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8483429, "incumbent": "Seamus Casey", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-02T17:31Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476474, "player": "Stefan Noesen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 704, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480192, "player": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 960, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479996, "player": "Cody Glass", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 581, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8477488, "player": "Brett Pesce", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1384, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8480003, "player": "Jesper Boqvist", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 636, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478414, "player": "Timo Meier", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 892, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476462, "player": "Dougie Hamilton", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1158, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 74 }, { "player_id": 8482110, "player": "Dawson Mercer", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 991, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8480002, "player": "Nico Hischier", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 863, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 73 }, { "player_id": 8478399, "player": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1090, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 74 }, { "player_id": 8477511, "player": "Anthony Mantha", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 743, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483695, "player": "Amadeus Lombardi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 604, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481721, "player": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1167, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480990, "player": "Declan Chisholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 932, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481559, "player": "Jack Hughes", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1365, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478542, "player": "Evan Rodrigues", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 750, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8479407, "player": "Jesper Bratt", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1170, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482684, "player": "Luke Hughes", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1431, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 47 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8483429, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483429/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "12:39", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 14, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 8, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.333333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 12, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "teamName": { "default": "New Jersey Devils", "fr": "Devils du New Jersey" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" } }, { "assists": 15, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 30, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 8, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 18, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Utica Comets" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "9:13", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "teamName": { "default": "New Jersey Devils", "fr": "Devils du New Jersey" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "18:01", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "teamName": { "default": "New Jersey Devils", "fr": "Devils du New Jersey" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" } }, { "assists": 18, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 29, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 13, "plusMinus": -13, "points": 19, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Utica Comets" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" }, { "incumbent_id": 8478399, "incumbent": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T17:29Z" } ], "reference_role": { "player_id": 8478399, "player": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1090, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 74 }, "reference_present": true, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476474, "player": "Stefan Noesen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 704, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480192, "player": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 960, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479996, "player": "Cody Glass", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 581, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8477488, "player": "Brett Pesce", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1384, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8480003, "player": "Jesper Boqvist", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 636, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478414, "player": "Timo Meier", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 892, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476462, "player": "Dougie Hamilton", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1158, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 74 }, { "player_id": 8482110, "player": "Dawson Mercer", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 991, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8480002, "player": "Nico Hischier", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 863, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 73 }, { "player_id": 8477511, "player": "Anthony Mantha", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 743, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483695, "player": "Amadeus Lombardi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 604, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481721, "player": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1167, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480990, "player": "Declan Chisholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 932, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481559, "player": "Jack Hughes", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1365, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478542, "player": "Evan Rodrigues", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 750, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8479407, "player": "Jesper Bratt", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1170, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482684, "player": "Luke Hughes", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1431, "PP_seconds": 46, "SH_seconds": 47 } ], "conclusion": "Dated status versus actual play checked; contemporaneous flag conditional, older flag superseded by participation.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8478399, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478399/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "19:36", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 55, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 44, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 9, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.038462, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 52, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "teamName": { "default": "New Jersey Devils", "fr": "Devils du New Jersey" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" } }, { "assists": 3, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 9, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 4, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Switzerland" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "26:31", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "teamName": { "default": "New Jersey Devils", "fr": "Devils du New Jersey" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" } }, { "assists": 16, "avgToi": "19:29", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 48, "plusMinus": -9, "points": 16, "powerPlayGoals": 0, 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"shiftsPerGame": 17.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Luke Evangelista", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 5163, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1032.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 58.67045 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6864, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1144.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Hughes", "otTimeOnIce": 159, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 79.5, "playerId": 8482684, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1333, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 222.16666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 424, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 70.66666, "shifts": 152, "shiftsPerGame": 25.33333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Luke Hughes", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 8621, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1436.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.7171 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3669, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 611.5, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Lombardi", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483695, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 99, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 16.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 88, "shiftsPerGame": 14.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Amadeus Lombardi", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 3768, "timeOnIcePerGame": 628.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.81818 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892511", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.033174752077191, 2.8253417314392926 ], "Primary": [ 3.0483422383152963, 2.80193395674687 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.975605, 2.8963349999999997 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.975605, 2.8963349999999997 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils", "market": { "id": "401892511", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892511", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.130710+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.410107+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 180.0, "away_line_price": -218.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -135.0, "under_price": 114.0, "home_ml": -148.0, "away_ml": 124.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.20783302063789844, "combined": 5.858516483516484, "spread_buffer": -1.7078330206378984, "total_difference": 0.3585164835164836 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.20783302063789844, "combined": 5.858516483516484, "spread_buffer": -1.7078330206378984, "total_difference": 0.3585164835164836 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.2464082815684261, "combined": 5.8502761950621665, "spread_buffer": -1.746408281568426, "total_difference": 0.35027619506216645 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.2464082815684261, "combined": 5.8502761950621665, "spread_buffer": -1.746408281568426, "total_difference": 0.35027619506216645 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.07927000000000017, "combined": 5.8719399999999995, "spread_buffer": -1.5792700000000002, "total_difference": 0.3719399999999995 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.07927000000000017, "combined": 5.8719399999999995, "spread_buffer": -1.5792700000000002, "total_difference": 0.3719399999999995 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.07927000000000017, "combined": 5.8719399999999995, "spread_buffer": -1.5792700000000002, "total_difference": 0.3719399999999995 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.07927000000000017, "combined": 5.8719399999999995, "spread_buffer": -1.5792700000000002, "total_difference": 0.3719399999999995 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401862800", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401862800", "date": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "7221", "fullName": "Protective Stadium", "address": { "city": "Birmingham", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "away": "151", "away_name": "East Carolina Pirates", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "UAB Blazers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Brock Spalding", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "side": "away", "condition": "Prior injury absence official notes; current final return unresolved", "replacement": "Ray Ray Joseph Jr.", "isolated_score": [ 27.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 33.5, 20.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 24.8, 22.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 26.416666666666668, 38.25 ], "current_rates": [ 22.166666666666668, 25.833333333333332 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.42548076923077, "mean_margin_error": 7.765151515151514, "mean_total_error": 20.85096153846154, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 15.682499999999997, 51.6825 ], "home": [ 3.2925000000000004, 39.292500000000004 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Brock Spalding", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "side": "away", "condition": "Prior injury absence official notes; current final return unresolved", "replacement": "Ray Ray Joseph Jr.", "isolated_score": [ 24.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2918, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-15T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "e005e4abda23d1de291293dc4f138f9238627a73d6e3678002947d6660e3b6e1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.937399129678514, "mean_margin_error": 9.378697415636159, "mean_total_error": 19.87479825935703, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 15.682499999999997, 51.6825 ], "home": [ 3.2925000000000004, 39.292500000000004 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Brock Spalding", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "side": "away", "condition": "Prior injury absence official notes; current final return unresolved", "replacement": "Ray Ray Joseph Jr.", "isolated_score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.5, "pa": 20.333333333333332, "margin": 13.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754373", "401762459", "401761604", "401756898", "401762471", "401762480", "401762486", "401762498", "401762504", "401762508", "401762513", "401762519" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.8, "pa": 22.6, "margin": 2.1999999999999993, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401864571", "401862710", "401862781", "401862797" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 38.25, "margin": -11.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401762430", "401762458", "401762463", "401752715", "401762476", "401762482", "401762487", "401757173", "401762502", "401762506", "401762511", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.166666666666668, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": -3.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401858424", "401862708", "401862776", "401862778", "401862793", "401862798" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.875, 23.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.316666666666666, 22.383333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.0866666666666664, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.323333333333334, "mean_margin_error": 7.977499999999996, "mean_total_error": 22.20608974358975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 15.682499999999997, 51.6825 ], "home": [ 3.2925000000000004, 39.292500000000004 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Brock Spalding", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "side": "away", "condition": "Prior injury absence official notes; current final return unresolved", "replacement": "Ray Ray Joseph Jr.", "isolated_score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.5, "pa": 20.333333333333332, "margin": 13.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754373", "401762459", "401761604", "401756898", "401762471", "401762480", "401762486", "401762498", "401762504", "401762508", "401762513", "401762519" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.8, "pa": 22.6, "margin": 2.1999999999999993, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401864571", "401862710", "401862781", "401862797" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 38.25, "margin": -11.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401762430", "401762458", "401762463", "401752715", "401762476", "401762482", "401762487", "401757173", "401762502", "401762506", "401762511", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.166666666666668, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": -3.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401858424", "401862708", "401862776", "401862778", "401862793", "401862798" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.875, 23.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.316666666666666, 22.383333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.0866666666666664, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.323333333333334, "mean_margin_error": 7.977499999999996, "mean_total_error": 22.20608974358975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 15.682499999999997, 51.6825 ], "home": [ 3.2925000000000004, 39.292500000000004 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Spalding return and replacement workload remain unresolved", "detail": "The established receiver has a documented prior injury absence. Preserve baseline and conditional minus-three scores. Current final availability and the future target allocation are not certified; live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "East Carolina Pirates: Brock Spalding Prior injury absence official notes; current final return unresolved; Spalding was the only returning offensive starter: nine starts in 13 games, 63 targets, 42 catches and 554 yards in 2025. In 2024 he had seven games, one start, 11 targets and five catches. Current notes show the injury absence and no October 10 appearance. His return remains unresolved, so continued unavailability is conditional. Gray, Melvin and Sides returned against Rice; no separate absence is inferred for them. UAB Blazers: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Registered baselines are unchanged. Isolated minus-three scenarios and joint overlap are explicit; Conservative ON/OFF use identical scoring arithmetic. Unestimated defensive pathways retain the relevant risk gate.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Protective Stadium; listed 2026-10-15T23:30Z. Official NCAA complete weekly feed and host preview corroborate matchup, venue and kickoff. Personnel branches retained in football ledger.", "details": { "event_id": "401862800", "sport": "NCAAF", "away": "East Carolina Pirates", "home": "UAB Blazers", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:30:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "venue": { "id": "7221", "fullName": "Protective Stadium", "address": { "city": "Birmingham", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:30 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:30 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000&groups=80", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.204069+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A7%7D", "https://uabsports.com/news/2026/10/14/football-uab-hosts-east-carolina-for-homecoming-thursday-night-on-espn" ], "context": [ "Official NCAA complete weekly feed and host preview corroborate matchup, venue and kickoff. Personnel branches retained in football ledger." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "previous_game": { "id": "401862797", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3699", "fullName": "Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Greenville", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "242", "away_name": "Rice Owls", "away_score": 12.0, "home": "151", "home_name": "East Carolina Pirates", "home_score": 28.0, "day": 20736.708333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 5, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "UAB Blazers", "previous_game": { "id": "401862798", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3805", "fullName": "Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Memphis", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "UAB Blazers", "away_score": 13.0, "home": "235", "home_name": "Memphis Tigers", "home_score": 38.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 5, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BMX/59,85/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:50.130849+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-15T05:05:52+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 19, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T18:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 83, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.77777777777778 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 53 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 20, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 79, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 58 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 74, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 69 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 72, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 73 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 70, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 78 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "stage_label": "FBS regular season" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:50.130849+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-15T05:05:52+00:00; periods: number: 19; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T18:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 83; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.77777777777778; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 53; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 20; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 79; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 58; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 74; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 69; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 72; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 73; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T23:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 70; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 78; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BMX/59,85/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:50.130849+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-15T05:05:52+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 19, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T18:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 83, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.77777777777778 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 53 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 20, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 79, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 58 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 74, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 69 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 72, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 73 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 70, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 78 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Spalding return and replacement workload remain unresolved", "detail": "The established receiver has a documented prior injury absence. Preserve baseline and conditional minus-three scores. Current final availability and the future target allocation are not certified; live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BMX/59,85/forecast/hourly", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "https://ecupirates.com/news/2026/10/14/football-ecu-plays-at-uab-thursday-on-espn-at-7-30-pm", "https://ecupirates.com/sports/football/roster/brock-spalding/14284", "https://ecupirates.com/sports/football/roster/ray-ray-joseph-jr/14307", "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A7%7D", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000&groups=80", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=200&groups=80", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/151/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/151/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/290/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/290/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/295/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/295/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/326/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/326/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/36/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/36/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/5/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/5/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4869324/stats", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4869340/stats", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4870770/stats", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5122006/stats", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5145453/stats", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5148837/stats", "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/FB26_Game_Notes_East_Carolina.pdf", "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/13/ECUFBNotes2606.pdf", "https://uabsports.com/news/2026/10/14/football-uab-hosts-east-carolina-for-homecoming-thursday-night-on-espn" ], "tu": { "id": "401862800", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401862800", "date": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "7221", "fullName": "Protective Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Birmingham", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "151", "away_name": "East Carolina Pirates", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "UAB Blazers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-ncaaf-mismatch-v1", "formula": "Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370", "away_score": 33.6825, "home_score": 21.2925, "unrounded_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "legacy_internal_rounded_score": [ 33.7, 21.3 ], "rounding_note": "Original arithmetic retained without premature storage rounding, as current four-model standard requires. Half-point display only.", "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.5, "pa": 20.333333333333332, "margin": 13.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754373", "401762459", "401761604", "401756898", "401762471", "401762480", "401762486", "401762498", "401762504", "401762508", "401762513", "401762519" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.8, "pa": 22.6, "margin": 2.1999999999999993, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401864571", "401862710", "401862781", "401862797" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 38.25, "margin": -11.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401762430", "401762458", "401762463", "401752715", "401762476", "401762482", "401762487", "401757173", "401762502", "401762506", "401762511", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.166666666666668, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": -3.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401858424", "401862708", "401862776", "401862778", "401862793", "401862798" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.875, 23.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.316666666666666, 22.383333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.0866666666666664, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 1.5 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 }, "ranges": { "away": [ 15.682499999999997, 51.6825 ], "home": [ 3.2925000000000004, 39.292500000000004 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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point model probabilities uncalibrated.", "resolved": false } ], "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 4, "minimum_total_buffer": 5, "maximum_tiers": 2, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 4, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated joint score distribution; probabilities withheld" }, "football_review": { "event_id": "401862800", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401862800", "date": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "7221", "fullName": "Protective Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Birmingham", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "151", "away_name": "East Carolina Pirates", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "UAB Blazers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ] }, "teams": [ { "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "side": "away", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Emory Williams", "Mitch Griffis" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/13/ECUFBNotes2606.pdf" }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "TJ Engleman Jr.", "Ashton Gray", "Michael Allen" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/13/ECUFBNotes2606.pdf" }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Ray Ray Joseph Jr.", "Jeremiah Melvin", "Landon Sides", "Tyler Johnson", "Dillon Lorick", "Brock Spalding" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/13/ECUFBNotes2606.pdf" }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Ismael Smith Flores", "Kanen Hamlett", "Mason Brown" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/13/ECUFBNotes2606.pdf" } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Emory Williams", "Mitch Griffis" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/13/ECUFBNotes2606.pdf" }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "TJ Engleman Jr.", "Ashton Gray", "Michael Allen" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/13/ECUFBNotes2606.pdf" }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Ray Ray Joseph Jr.", "Jeremiah Melvin", "Landon Sides", "Tyler Johnson", "Dillon Lorick", "Brock Spalding" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/13/ECUFBNotes2606.pdf" }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Ismael Smith Flores", "Kanen Hamlett", "Mason Brown" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/13/ECUFBNotes2606.pdf" } ], "reference_lineup": "Emory Williams replaced Mitch Griffis for performance reasons. Ashton Gray returned against Rice with five carries and three catches. Jeremiah Melvin and Landon Sides started that game. Spalding remains an unresolved return after his earlier injury absence.", "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Brock Spalding", "pos": "WR", "conditional": true, "status": "Prior injury absence official notes; current final return unresolved", "pool": [ "Ray Ray Joseph Jr.", "Dillon Lorick", "Tyler Johnson", "Landon Sides", "Jeremiah Melvin" ], "basis": "Spalding was the only returning offensive starter: nine starts in 13 games, 63 targets, 42 catches and 554 yards in 2025. In 2024 he had seven games, one start, 11 targets and five catches. Current notes show the injury absence and no October 10 appearance. His return remains unresolved, so continued unavailability is conditional. Gray, Melvin and Sides returned against Rice; no separate absence is inferred for them.", "familiarity": "Joseph and current quarterback Emory Williams were Miami teammates, documented in the official game notes. Returning receivers and current transfers have distinct prior teams and current practice experience. Future target shares are unestimated.", "sources": [ "ecu-game-notes", "bio-brock-spalding", "bio-ray-ray-joseph-jr", "ecu-latest" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 } }, "comparison": [ { "name": "Brock Spalding", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-4869340.json", "name": "Brock Spalding", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4869340/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.309166+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "151", "teamSlug": "east-carolina-pirates", "stats": { "receptions": "5", "receivingYards": "71", "yardsPerReception": "14.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "25" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "151", "teamSlug": "east-carolina-pirates", "stats": { "receptions": "42", "receivingYards": "554", "yardsPerReception": "13.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "55" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "151", "teamSlug": "east-carolina-pirates", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "0", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "151", "teamSlug": "east-carolina-pirates", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "4", "rushingYards": "31", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "7.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "11" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Ray Ray Joseph Jr.", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-4870770.json", "name": "Ray Ray Joseph Jr.", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4870770/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.325043+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2390", "teamSlug": "miami-hurricanes", "stats": { "receptions": "6", "receivingYards": "74", "yardsPerReception": "12.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "36" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2390", "teamSlug": "miami-hurricanes", "stats": { "receptions": "2", "receivingYards": "25", "yardsPerReception": "12.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "18" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "151", "teamSlug": "east-carolina-pirates", "stats": { "receptions": "25", "receivingYards": "267", "yardsPerReception": "10.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "41" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "151", "teamSlug": "east-carolina-pirates", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "3", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "3" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Dillon Lorick", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-5148837.json", "name": "Dillon Lorick", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5148837/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.309166+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "151", "teamSlug": "east-carolina-pirates", "stats": { "receptions": "2", "receivingYards": "23", "yardsPerReception": "11.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "12" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "151", "teamSlug": "east-carolina-pirates", "stats": { "receptions": "3", "receivingYards": "87", "yardsPerReception": "29.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "52" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Tyler Johnson", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-4869324.json", "name": "Tyler Johnson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4869324/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.325043+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "151", "teamSlug": "east-carolina-pirates", "stats": { "receptions": "7", "receivingYards": "72", "yardsPerReception": "10.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "14" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "151", "teamSlug": "east-carolina-pirates", "stats": { "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "86", "yardsPerReception": "21.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "68" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Landon Sides", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-5122006.json", "name": "Landon Sides", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5122006/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.354585+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "249", "teamSlug": "north-texas-mean-green", "stats": { "receptions": "24", "receivingYards": "280", "yardsPerReception": "11.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "42" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "249", "teamSlug": "north-texas-mean-green", "stats": { "receptions": "34", "receivingYards": "449", "yardsPerReception": "13.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "60" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "151", "teamSlug": "east-carolina-pirates", "stats": { "receptions": "3", "receivingYards": "28", "yardsPerReception": "9.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "10" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Jeremiah Melvin", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-5145453.json", "name": "Jeremiah Melvin", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5145453/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.325043+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "154", "teamSlug": "wake-forest-demon-deacons", "stats": { "receptions": "3", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "13.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "27" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "151", "teamSlug": "east-carolina-pirates", "stats": { "receptions": "12", "receivingYards": "167", "yardsPerReception": "13.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "38" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." } ], "source_urls": [ "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/13/ECUFBNotes2606.pdf", "https://ecupirates.com/sports/football/roster/brock-spalding/14284", "https://ecupirates.com/sports/football/roster/ray-ray-joseph-jr/14307", "https://ecupirates.com/news/2026/10/14/football-ecu-plays-at-uab-thursday-on-espn-at-7-30-pm" ], "incremental_effect": "Unestimated incremental statistical effect. Preserve the registered baseline, which already includes some affected games. The human deduction is an additional labeled assumption, not a measured loss or a three-point cap.", "state": "Prior injury absence official notes; current final return unresolved", "position": "WR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Ray Ray Joseph Jr.", "replacement_pool": [ "Ray Ray Joseph Jr.", "Dillon Lorick", "Tyler Johnson", "Landon Sides", "Jeremiah Melvin" ], "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Spalding was the only returning offensive starter: nine starts in 13 games, 63 targets, 42 catches and 554 yards in 2025. In 2024 he had seven games, one start, 11 targets and five catches. Current notes show the injury absence and no October 10 appearance. His return remains unresolved, so continued unavailability is conditional. Gray, Melvin and Sides returned against Rice; no separate absence is inferred for them.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 27.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "adjusted": [ 27.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ] }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "adjusted": [ 24.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ] }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "adjusted": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ] }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "adjusted": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ] } }, "scenario_id": "401862800-away-brock-spalding", "human_deduction": -3 } ], "joint_scenario": { "branches": [ { "included_players": [], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ] }, "name": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Brock Spalding" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 27.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 24.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ] }, "name": "Brock Spalding \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" } ], "production_deduction": 0 }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Emory Williams replaced Mitch Griffis for performance reasons. Ashton Gray returned against Rice with five carries and three catches. Jeremiah Melvin and Landon Sides started that game. Spalding remains an unresolved return after his earlier injury absence.", "status": "REVIEWED WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL LIMITATIONS" }, { "team": "UAB Blazers", "side": "home", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Ryder Burton", "Nathan Rogers" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/FB26_Game_Notes_East_Carolina.pdf" }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Rod Robinson", "Bam McReynolds", "Ja'Vin Simpkins" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/FB26_Game_Notes_East_Carolina.pdf" }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Kaleb Brown", "KJ Daniels", "AJ Johnson", "Jailen Holmes", "Ty Mims", "CJ Smith", "EJ Reid" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/FB26_Game_Notes_East_Carolina.pdf" }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Antonio Ferguson", "Scott Isacks", "Gabriel Cline" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/FB26_Game_Notes_East_Carolina.pdf" } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Ryder Burton", "Nathan Rogers" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/FB26_Game_Notes_East_Carolina.pdf" }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Rod Robinson", "Bam McReynolds", "Ja'Vin Simpkins" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/FB26_Game_Notes_East_Carolina.pdf" }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Kaleb Brown", "KJ Daniels", "AJ Johnson", "Jailen Holmes", "Ty Mims", "CJ Smith", "EJ Reid" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/FB26_Game_Notes_East_Carolina.pdf" }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Antonio Ferguson", "Scott Isacks", "Gabriel Cline" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/FB26_Game_Notes_East_Carolina.pdf" } ], "reference_lineup": "The official current depth chart lists Ryder Burton, the Robinson/McReynolds/Simpkins running-back committee, the main receivers and the Ferguson/Isacks tight-end group. OR designations do not establish injury absences.", "isolated_scenarios": [], "joint_scenario": { "branches": [ { "included_players": [], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ] }, "name": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" } ], "production_deduction": 0 }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "The official current depth chart lists Ryder Burton, the Robinson/McReynolds/Simpkins running-back committee, the main receivers and the Ferguson/Isacks tight-end group. OR designations do not establish injury absences.", "status": "REVIEWED WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL LIMITATIONS" } ], "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Spalding return and replacement workload remain unresolved", "detail": "The established receiver has a documented prior injury absence. Preserve baseline and conditional minus-three scores. Current final availability and the future target allocation are not certified; live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "defense_protection_inventory": { "sources": [ "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/13/ECUFBNotes2606.pdf", "https://uabsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/FB26_Game_Notes_East_Carolina.pdf" ], "separate_offense_pathway": "Review covered-role workload changes separately. Incremental statistical score effects remain unestimated; no coefficient was invented.", "separate_defense_pathway": "Review coverage, pressure, turnovers, possession and field-position mechanisms separately. No defensible incremental point conversion is available; unchanged opponent points do not mean the true effect is zero." }, "release_gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until applicable high risks are resolved and all existing gates pass." }, "football_supplement": { "event_id": "401862800", "identity": { "id": "401862800", "date": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "7221", "fullName": "Protective Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Birmingham", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "151", "away_name": "East Carolina Pirates", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "UAB Blazers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "home_margin": -6.465909090909086, "total": 53.62121212121212, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market, adverse, stress and model gates. Unresolved HIGH risks require PASS.", "production_assumption": "Conditional college scenarios retained separately; unresolved status is not converted to OUT.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 27.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "home_selection": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 50.62121212121212, "under_selection_total": 53.62121212121212 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "These endpoints cover labeled human availability sensitivities only. Unestimated defense, protection and tempo effects are not numerically bounded; use the high-risk PASS gate where applicable." }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "home_margin": -0.7887034753106974, "total": 54.5843585842994, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market, adverse, stress and model gates. Unresolved HIGH risks require PASS.", "production_assumption": "Conditional college scenarios retained separately; unresolved status is not converted to OUT.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 24.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "home_selection": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 51.5843585842994, "under_selection_total": 54.5843585842994 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "These endpoints cover labeled human availability sensitivities only. Unestimated defense, protection and tempo effects are not numerically bounded; use the high-risk PASS gate where applicable." }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "home_margin": -12.389999999999997, "total": 54.974999999999994, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market, adverse, stress and model gates. Unresolved HIGH risks require PASS.", "production_assumption": "Conditional college scenarios retained separately; unresolved status is not converted to OUT.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "home_selection": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 51.974999999999994, "under_selection_total": 54.974999999999994 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "These endpoints cover labeled human availability sensitivities only. Unestimated defense, protection and tempo effects are not numerically bounded; use the high-risk PASS gate where applicable." }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "home_margin": -12.389999999999997, "total": 54.974999999999994, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market, adverse, stress and model gates. Unresolved HIGH risks require PASS.", "production_assumption": "Conditional college scenarios retained separately; unresolved status is not converted to OUT.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "home_selection": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 51.974999999999994, "under_selection_total": 54.974999999999994 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "These endpoints cover labeled human availability sensitivities only. Unestimated defense, protection and tempo effects are not numerically bounded; use the high-risk PASS gate where applicable." } }, "production_scenario": "CONDITIONAL AVAILABILITY; BASE RETAINED", "scenario_choice_by_team": { "away": { "branches": [ { "included_players": [], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ] }, "name": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Brock Spalding" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 27.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 24.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ] }, "name": "Brock Spalding \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" } ], "production_deduction": 0 }, "home": { "branches": [ { "included_players": [], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ] }, "name": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" } ], "production_deduction": 0 } }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Spalding return and replacement workload remain unresolved", "detail": "The established receiver has a documented prior injury absence. Preserve baseline and conditional minus-three scores. Current final availability and the future target allocation are not certified; live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "East Carolina main receiver Brock Spalding has an unresolved injury return. Retain the baseline and conditional minus-three scenario. Gray, Melvin and Sides returned against Rice. UAB has no verified qualifying absence.", "Gideon Marsh": "Registered baselines are unchanged. Isolated minus-three scenarios and joint overlap are explicit; Conservative ON/OFF use identical scoring arithmetic. Unestimated defensive pathways retain the relevant risk gate." }, "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json" }, "offensive_review": [], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "East Carolina Pirates at UAB Blazers", "market": { "id": "401862800", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862800", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.414917+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.594868+00:00", "home_line": 5.5, "away_line": -5.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 170.0, "away_ml": -205.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 5.5, "average_total": 47.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -6.465909090909086, "combined": 53.62121212121212, "spread_buffer": -0.9659090909090864, "total_difference": 6.1212121212121176 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -6.465909090909086, "combined": 53.62121212121212, "spread_buffer": -0.9659090909090864, "total_difference": 6.1212121212121176 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.7887034753106974, "combined": 54.5843585842994, "spread_buffer": 4.711296524689303, "total_difference": 7.084358584299402 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.7887034753106974, "combined": 54.5843585842994, "spread_buffer": 4.711296524689303, "total_difference": 7.084358584299402 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -12.389999999999997, "combined": 54.974999999999994, "spread_buffer": -6.889999999999997, "total_difference": 7.474999999999994 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -12.389999999999997, "combined": 54.974999999999994, "spread_buffer": -6.889999999999997, "total_difference": 7.474999999999994 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401862800", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "matchup": "East Carolina Pirates at UAB Blazers", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862800", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.414917+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.594868+00:00", "selection_side": "away", "line": -5.5, "home_line": 5.5, "pick": "East Carolina Pirates -5.5", "price": -108.0, "canonical_buffer": 6.889999999999997, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": 3.889999999999997, "worst_applicable_buffer": 3.889999999999997, "worst_stressed_buffer": 0.889999999999997, "base_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "buffer": 6.889999999999997, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.889999999999997, "adverse_score": [ 33.6825, 24.2925 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.889999999999997 }, { "branch": "Brock Spalding \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "buffer": 3.889999999999997, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.889999999999997, "adverse_score": [ 30.682499999999997, 24.2925 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.889999999999997 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Spalding return and replacement workload remain unresolved", "detail": "The established receiver has a documented prior injury absence. 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No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "buffer": 0.9659090909090864, "stressed_buffer": -2.0340909090909136, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "buffer": -4.711296524689303, "stressed_buffer": -7.711296524689303, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "home_selection": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 51.974999999999994, "under_selection_total": 54.974999999999994 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, "total": { "event_id": "401862800", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "matchup": "East Carolina Pirates at UAB Blazers", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862800", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.414917+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.594868+00:00", "selection_side": "over", "line": 47.5, "home_line": 5.5, "pick": "Over 47.5", "price": -110.0, "canonical_buffer": 7.474999999999994, "required_buffer": 5, "minimum_branch_buffer": 4.474999999999994, "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.474999999999994, "worst_stressed_buffer": 1.4749999999999943, "base_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "buffer": 7.474999999999994, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.474999999999994, "adverse_score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.474999999999994 }, { "branch": "Brock Spalding \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "buffer": 4.474999999999994, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.474999999999994, "adverse_score": [ 27.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.4749999999999943 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Spalding return and replacement workload remain unresolved", "detail": "The established receiver has a documented prior injury absence. 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No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "buffer": 0.9659090909090864, "stressed_buffer": -2.0340909090909136, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "buffer": -4.711296524689303, "stressed_buffer": -7.711296524689303, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "home_selection": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 51.974999999999994, "under_selection_total": 54.974999999999994 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, "total": { "event_id": "401862800", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "matchup": "East Carolina Pirates at UAB Blazers", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862800", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.414917+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.594868+00:00", "selection_side": "over", "line": 47.5, "home_line": 5.5, "pick": "Over 47.5", "price": -110.0, "canonical_buffer": 7.474999999999994, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": 4.474999999999994, "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.474999999999994, "worst_stressed_buffer": 1.4749999999999943, "base_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "buffer": 7.474999999999994, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.474999999999994, "adverse_score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.474999999999994 }, { "branch": "Brock Spalding \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "buffer": 4.474999999999994, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.474999999999994, "adverse_score": [ 27.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.4749999999999943 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Spalding return and replacement workload remain unresolved", "detail": "The established receiver has a documented prior injury absence. Preserve baseline and conditional minus-three scores. Current final availability and the future target allocation are not certified; live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 1.4749999999999943, "worst_case": { "branch": "Brock Spalding \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "buffer": 4.474999999999994, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.474999999999994, "adverse_score": [ 27.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.4749999999999943 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ], "buffer": 7.474999999999994, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.474999999999994, "adverse_score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.474999999999994 }, { "branch": "Brock Spalding \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "buffer": 4.474999999999994, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.474999999999994, "adverse_score": [ 27.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.4749999999999943 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 30.043560606060602, 23.577651515151516 ], "buffer": 6.1212121212121176, "stressed_buffer": 3.1212121212121176, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 27.68653102980505, 26.897827554494352 ], "buffer": 7.084358584299402, "stressed_buffer": 4.084358584299402, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 30.682499999999997, 21.2925 ], "home_selection": [ 33.6825, 21.2925 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 51.974999999999994, "under_selection_total": 54.974999999999994 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401869950", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401869950", "date": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3918", "fullName": "S.B. Ballard Stadium", "address": { "city": "Norfolk", "state": "VA", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "away": "290", "away_name": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "295", "home_name": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 27.833333333333332, 34.166666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 24.666666666666668, 24.333333333333332 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 32.666666666666664, 19.25 ], "current_rates": [ 18.166666666666668, 27.5 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.42548076923077, "mean_margin_error": 7.765151515151514, "mean_total_error": 20.85096153846154, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 5.804166666666667, 41.80416666666667 ], "home": [ 11.841666666666665, 47.84166666666667 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2918, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-15T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "e005e4abda23d1de291293dc4f138f9238627a73d6e3678002947d6660e3b6e1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.937399129678514, "mean_margin_error": 9.378697415636159, "mean_total_error": 19.87479825935703, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 5.804166666666667, 41.80416666666667 ], "home": [ 11.841666666666665, 47.84166666666667 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401760361", "401752814", "401757234", "401761609", "401761614", "401761622", "401761630", "401761636", "401761644", "401761650", "401761657", "401761663" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": 0.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401868170", "401858219", "401869948", "401856806", "401869942", "401869949" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.666666666666664, "pa": 19.25, "margin": 13.416666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401761599", "401754536", "401757271", "401761619", "401761626", "401761631", "401761635", "401761641", "401761649", "401761657", "401761664" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 27.5, "margin": -9.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401867973", "401858221", "401862710", "401869961", "401869956", "401869843" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.541666666666664, 33.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.0083333333333329, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.323333333333334, "mean_margin_error": 7.977499999999996, "mean_total_error": 22.20608974358975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 5.804166666666667, 41.80416666666667 ], "home": [ 11.841666666666665, 47.84166666666667 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401760361", "401752814", "401757234", "401761609", "401761614", "401761622", "401761630", "401761636", "401761644", "401761650", "401761657", "401761663" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": 0.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401868170", "401858219", "401869948", "401856806", "401869942", "401869949" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.666666666666664, "pa": 19.25, "margin": 13.416666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401761599", "401754536", "401757271", "401761619", "401761626", "401761631", "401761635", "401761641", "401761649", "401761657", "401761664" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 27.5, "margin": -9.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401867973", "401858221", "401862710", "401869961", "401869956", "401869843" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.541666666666664, 33.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.0083333333333329, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.323333333333334, "mean_margin_error": 7.977499999999996, "mean_total_error": 22.20608974358975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 5.804166666666667, 41.80416666666667 ], "home": [ 11.841666666666665, 47.84166666666667 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation", "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Georgia Southern Eagles: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger. Old Dominion Monarchs: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Registered baselines are unchanged. Isolated minus-three scenarios and joint overlap are explicit; Conservative ON/OFF use identical scoring arithmetic. Unestimated defensive pathways retain the relevant risk gate.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "S.B. Ballard Stadium; listed 2026-10-15T23:30Z. Official NCAA complete weekly feed and host preview corroborate matchup, venue and kickoff. Personnel branches retained in football ledger.", "details": { "event_id": "401869950", "sport": "NCAAF", "away": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "home": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:30:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "venue": { "id": "3918", "fullName": "S.B. Ballard Stadium", "address": { "city": "Norfolk", "state": "VA", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:30 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:30 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000&groups=80", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.204069+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A7%7D", "https://odusports.com/news/2026/10/13/game-seven-preview-old-dominion-vs-georgia-southern-thursday-night" ], "context": [ "Official NCAA complete weekly feed and host preview corroborate matchup, venue and kickoff. Personnel branches retained in football ledger." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "previous_game": { "id": "401869949", "date": "2026-10-11T00:10Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3608", "fullName": "Allen E. Paulson Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Statesboro", "state": "GA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "256", "away_name": "James Madison Dukes", "away_score": 27.0, "home": "290", "home_name": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "home_score": 24.0, "day": 20737.006944444445 }, "days_between_start_dates": 5, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "previous_game": { "id": "401869843", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3792", "fullName": "Kidd Brewer Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Boone", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "295", "away_name": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "away_score": 10.0, "home": "2026", "home_name": "App State Mountaineers", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20736.708333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 5, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/AKQ/89,53/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:50.024253+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-14T20:03:15+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 20, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 93 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 93 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 93 }, "windSpeed": "7 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 93 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 24, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-16T00:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 97 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "stage_label": "FBS regular season" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:50.024253+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T20:03:15+00:00; periods: number: 20; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 93; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 93; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 93; windSpeed: 7 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T23:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 93; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 24; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T23:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-16T00:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 97; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/AKQ/89,53/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:50.024253+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-14T20:03:15+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 20, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 93 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 93 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 93 }, "windSpeed": "7 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 93 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 24, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-16T00:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 97 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation", "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/AKQ/89,53/forecast/hourly", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/GS_Notes26_ODU.pdf", "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/ODU_vs._Georgia_Southern_Game_Notes.pdf", "https://odusports.com/news/2026/10/13/game-seven-preview-old-dominion-vs-georgia-southern-thursday-night", "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A7%7D", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000&groups=80", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=200&groups=80", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/151/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/151/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/290/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/290/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/295/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/295/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/326/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/326/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/36/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/36/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/5/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/5/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2" ], "tu": { "id": "401869950", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401869950", "date": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3918", "fullName": "S.B. Ballard Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Norfolk", "state": "VA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "290", "away_name": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "295", "home_name": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-ncaaf-mismatch-v1", "formula": "Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370", "away_score": 23.804166666666667, "home_score": 29.841666666666665, "unrounded_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "legacy_internal_rounded_score": [ 23.8, 29.8 ], "rounding_note": "Original arithmetic retained without premature storage rounding, as current four-model standard requires. Half-point display only.", "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401760361", "401752814", "401757234", "401761609", "401761614", "401761622", "401761630", "401761636", "401761644", "401761650", "401761657", "401761663" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": 0.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401868170", "401858219", "401869948", "401856806", "401869942", "401869949" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.666666666666664, "pa": 19.25, "margin": 13.416666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401761599", "401754536", "401757271", "401761619", "401761626", "401761631", "401761635", "401761641", "401761649", "401761657", "401761664" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 27.5, "margin": -9.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401867973", "401858221", "401862710", "401869961", "401869956", "401869843" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.541666666666664, 33.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.0083333333333329, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 1.5 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 }, "ranges": { "away": [ 5.804166666666667, 41.80416666666667 ], "home": [ 11.841666666666665, 47.84166666666667 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=200&groups=80", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/151/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/151/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/290/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/290/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/295/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/295/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/326/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/326/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/36/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/36/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/5/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/5/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\slate-NCAAF.json", "sha256": "510eda84ba9756040c02133fc16cdea261904a7637510075faa99721d3162713" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\history-NCAAF.json", "sha256": "8706d80b2f351b96de1bdfae1437e200969f11f51ff75180b237bad9ce112c94" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\cfb-team-151-2025.json", "sha256": "14ec0cf358c9b59bf4ee482818654d4db084853a7d73572f8e2f976749e86423" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\cfb-team-151-2026.json", "sha256": "3337f79dfd29d5fa415949c6d0460f72caf3b019d0509da6fa56a28a89cf6144" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\cfb-team-290-2025.json", "sha256": "717e2a9167f85251de865ac65630784c3dc67522894c7275f4e8cde12ae5678f" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\cfb-team-290-2026.json", "sha256": "d6174edfdd24a05905af800ee4ff0e00c5c23a81533ae45d329d1788e6e02bb4" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\cfb-team-295-2025.json", "sha256": "43363a12b5f6f12353785dd50d4b414b27bb1b2134e28609892585d02c19b36d" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\cfb-team-295-2026.json", "sha256": "2025ece5b3411368d8013f6f20a75b69be6b7a5bd24548aba7b31cd9ec717ca7" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\cfb-team-326-2025.json", "sha256": "b4bd13eff580524fcbabe2047e4a3bfe9aeb6456eb4c431f41a24e648bd98763" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\cfb-team-326-2026.json", "sha256": "8109242569d8fa7ea1dbdcc96950436374ffa502b477df772bb070a2966e677b" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\cfb-team-36-2025.json", "sha256": "6639deae084cd0e23335c3b16c4dc42df7b66a41c6f2073e9dca7a5c252f6cf6" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\cfb-team-36-2026.json", "sha256": "0f0de47f42480e5a562b41b5ede585d0d6f02496ed5df457c50a7cdd46234c2b" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\cfb-team-5-2025.json", "sha256": "9f5f5987fbc3febe4872175099b2bfb4ced995f7bdae8a3d7feea1e3345896ef" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\cfb-team-5-2026.json", "sha256": "00a0fcf237d4fd5554da567068b7183fb49bf6a10aed83d49ef5ccc9f56567ab" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Final decision-useful availability or its supported scoring impact unresolved; point model probabilities uncalibrated.", "resolved": false } ], "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 4, "minimum_total_buffer": 5, "maximum_tiers": 2, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 4, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated joint score distribution; probabilities withheld" }, "football_review": { "event_id": "401869950", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401869950", "date": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3918", "fullName": "S.B. Ballard Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Norfolk", "state": "VA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "290", "away_name": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "295", "home_name": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ] }, "teams": [ { "team": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "side": "away", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Max Johnson", "Turner Helton" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/GS_Notes26_ODU.pdf" }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Terrance Gibbs", "David Mbadinga", "Tyrese Woodgett" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/GS_Notes26_ODU.pdf" }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Josh Dallas", "Jeremiah Ware", "Taylor Bradshaw", "Andre Greene Jr.", "Alex Taylor" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/GS_Notes26_ODU.pdf" }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "River Helms", "JP Mikhael" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/GS_Notes26_ODU.pdf" } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Max Johnson", "Turner Helton" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/GS_Notes26_ODU.pdf" }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Terrance Gibbs", "David Mbadinga", "Tyrese Woodgett" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/GS_Notes26_ODU.pdf" }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Josh Dallas", "Jeremiah Ware", "Taylor Bradshaw", "Andre Greene Jr.", "Alex Taylor" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/GS_Notes26_ODU.pdf" }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "River Helms", "JP Mikhael" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/GS_Notes26_ODU.pdf" } ], "reference_lineup": "The official current depth chart lists Max Johnson, Gibbs/Mbadinga, the main receivers and River Helms. Past injury narratives are not current OUT designations. No qualifying current absence was verified.", "isolated_scenarios": [], "joint_scenario": { "branches": [ { "included_players": [], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ] }, "name": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" } ], "production_deduction": 0 }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "The official current depth chart lists Max Johnson, Gibbs/Mbadinga, the main receivers and River Helms. Past injury narratives are not current OUT designations. No qualifying current absence was verified.", "status": "REVIEWED WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL LIMITATIONS" }, { "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "side": "home", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Quinn Henicle", "Ryan Huff", "Jaxon Potter" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/ODU_vs._Georgia_Southern_Game_Notes.pdf" }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Devin Roche", "Trey Hall", "Maurki James" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/ODU_vs._Georgia_Southern_Game_Notes.pdf" }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Kendall Harris", "Josh Rodriguez", "JJ Harrell", "TJ Johnson" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/ODU_vs._Georgia_Southern_Game_Notes.pdf" }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Leon Haughton", "Lonnie Johnson" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/ODU_vs._Georgia_Southern_Game_Notes.pdf" } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Quinn Henicle", "Ryan Huff", "Jaxon Potter" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/ODU_vs._Georgia_Southern_Game_Notes.pdf" }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Devin Roche", "Trey Hall", "Maurki James" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/ODU_vs._Georgia_Southern_Game_Notes.pdf" }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Kendall Harris", "Josh Rodriguez", "JJ Harrell", "TJ Johnson" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/ODU_vs._Georgia_Southern_Game_Notes.pdf" }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Leon Haughton", "Lonnie Johnson" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/ODU_vs._Georgia_Southern_Game_Notes.pdf" } ], "reference_lineup": "Quinn Henicle returned after his earlier injury absence and ran 28 times in the latest game. The current running backs, receivers and receiving tight ends were reviewed. Left guard Connor Drake missed that game injured but is listed as a starter; protection uncertainty remains.", "isolated_scenarios": [], "joint_scenario": { "branches": [ { "included_players": [], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ] }, "name": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" } ], "production_deduction": 0 }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Quinn Henicle returned after his earlier injury absence and ran 28 times in the latest game. The current running backs, receivers and receiving tight ends were reviewed. Left guard Connor Drake missed that game injured but is listed as a starter; protection uncertainty remains.", "status": "REVIEWED WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL LIMITATIONS" } ], "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation", "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "defense_protection_inventory": { "sources": [ "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/GS_Notes26_ODU.pdf", "https://gseagles.com/documents/download/2026/10/12/ODU_vs._Georgia_Southern_Game_Notes.pdf" ], "separate_offense_pathway": "Review covered-role workload changes separately. Incremental statistical score effects remain unestimated; no coefficient was invented.", "separate_defense_pathway": "Review coverage, pressure, turnovers, possession and field-position mechanisms separately. No defensible incremental point conversion is available; unchanged opponent points do not mean the true effect is zero." }, "release_gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until applicable high risks are resolved and all existing gates pass." }, "football_supplement": { "event_id": "401869950", "identity": { "id": "401869950", "date": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3918", "fullName": "S.B. Ballard Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Norfolk", "state": "VA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "290", "away_name": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "295", "home_name": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": 0, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "home_margin": 4.020833333333332, "total": 52.14583333333333, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market, adverse, stress and model gates. Unresolved HIGH risks require PASS.", "production_assumption": "Conditional college scenarios retained separately; unresolved status is not converted to OUT.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "home_selection": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 52.14583333333333, "under_selection_total": 52.14583333333333 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "These endpoints cover labeled human availability sensitivities only. Unestimated defense, protection and tempo effects are not numerically bounded; use the high-risk PASS gate where applicable." }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": 0, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "home_margin": 11.29916726402799, "total": 51.25939018126182, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market, adverse, stress and model gates. Unresolved HIGH risks require PASS.", "production_assumption": "Conditional college scenarios retained separately; unresolved status is not converted to OUT.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "home_selection": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 51.25939018126182, "under_selection_total": 51.25939018126182 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "These endpoints cover labeled human availability sensitivities only. Unestimated defense, protection and tempo effects are not numerically bounded; use the high-risk PASS gate where applicable." }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": 0, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "home_margin": 6.037499999999998, "total": 53.64583333333333, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market, adverse, stress and model gates. Unresolved HIGH risks require PASS.", "production_assumption": "Conditional college scenarios retained separately; unresolved status is not converted to OUT.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "home_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 53.64583333333333, "under_selection_total": 53.64583333333333 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "These endpoints cover labeled human availability sensitivities only. Unestimated defense, protection and tempo effects are not numerically bounded; use the high-risk PASS gate where applicable." }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": 0, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "home_margin": 6.037499999999998, "total": 53.64583333333333, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market, adverse, stress and model gates. Unresolved HIGH risks require PASS.", "production_assumption": "Conditional college scenarios retained separately; unresolved status is not converted to OUT.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "home_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 53.64583333333333, "under_selection_total": 53.64583333333333 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "These endpoints cover labeled human availability sensitivities only. Unestimated defense, protection and tempo effects are not numerically bounded; use the high-risk PASS gate where applicable." } }, "production_scenario": "NO TRIGGER", "scenario_choice_by_team": { "away": { "branches": [ { "included_players": [], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ] }, "name": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" } ], "production_deduction": 0 }, "home": { "branches": [ { "included_players": [], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ] }, "name": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" } ], "production_deduction": 0 } }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation", "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "Georgia Southern and Old Dominion quarterbacks, lead backs, main receivers and receiving tight ends were reviewed. No qualifying availability deduction was identified. Henicle has returned; ODU left guard Connor Drake remains a protection uncertainty.", "Gideon Marsh": "Registered baselines are unchanged. Isolated minus-three scenarios and joint overlap are explicit; Conservative ON/OFF use identical scoring arithmetic. Unestimated defensive pathways retain the relevant risk gate." }, "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json" }, "offensive_review": [], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs", "market": { "id": "401869950", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869950", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.586472+00:00", "home_line": 3.5, "away_line": -3.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -108.0, "home_ml": 150.0, "away_ml": -180.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 3.5, "average_total": 47.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 4.020833333333332, "combined": 52.14583333333333, "spread_buffer": 7.520833333333332, "total_difference": 4.645833333333329 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 4.020833333333332, "combined": 52.14583333333333, "spread_buffer": 7.520833333333332, "total_difference": 4.645833333333329 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 11.29916726402799, "combined": 51.25939018126182, "spread_buffer": 14.79916726402799, "total_difference": 3.7593901812618213 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 11.29916726402799, "combined": 51.25939018126182, "spread_buffer": 14.79916726402799, "total_difference": 3.7593901812618213 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 6.037499999999998, "combined": 53.64583333333333, "spread_buffer": 9.537499999999998, "total_difference": 6.145833333333329 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.037499999999998, "combined": 53.64583333333333, "spread_buffer": 9.537499999999998, "total_difference": 6.145833333333329 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401869950", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869950", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.586472+00:00", "selection_side": "home", "line": 3.5, "home_line": 3.5, "pick": "Old Dominion Monarchs +3.5", "price": -110.0, "canonical_buffer": 9.537499999999998, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": 9.537499999999998, "worst_applicable_buffer": 9.537499999999998, "worst_stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998, "base_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 9.537499999999998, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998, "adverse_score": [ 26.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation", "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Current Old Dominion offensive capability and rushing tempo diverge materially from the prior-year foundation", "detail": "This is an event-specific offensive-transition mechanism, not ordinary model disagreement. The official notes document Colton Joseph leaving for Wisconsin, a new offensive coordinator, Henicle returning from an injury absence, and 61 rushes for 207 yards in a 10-point last game. Six current games average 18.1667 points versus 32.6667 last season. The frozen current-matchup home component is 21.25 versus the 29.8417 production mean. This supported downside can erase more than half the spread edge and cross the over line; independent ordinary stress defeats both. Unconfirmed Connor Drake protection status remains a separate MEDIUM risk.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true, "sources": [ "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\score-freeze.json", "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-game-notes.json", "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-preview.json" ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen current-season matchup", "score": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336, "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643, "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." }, { "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667, "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333, "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." } ], "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections 3, 5 and 7: current context, supported invalidation and adverse-case tests." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Conservative ON excludes unresolved medium risk", "Unresolved HIGH: supported current offensive capability and tempo adverse case fails the selected market." ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 6.537499999999998, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 9.537499999999998, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998, "adverse_score": [ 26.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 9.537499999999998, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998, "adverse_score": [ 26.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "buffer": 7.520833333333332, "stressed_buffer": 4.520833333333332, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "buffer": 14.79916726402799, "stressed_buffer": 11.79916726402799, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "home_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 53.64583333333333, "under_selection_total": 53.64583333333333 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier.", "prior_numerical_decision": "PASS", "mechanism_adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen current-season matchup", "score": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336, "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643, "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." }, { "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667, "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333, "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." } ], "policy_reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:58:53.027918+00:00" }, "total": { "event_id": "401869950", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "matchup": "Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869950", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.586472+00:00", "selection_side": "over", "line": 47.5, "home_line": 3.5, "pick": "Over 47.5", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 6.145833333333329, "required_buffer": 5, "minimum_branch_buffer": 6.145833333333329, "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.145833333333329, "worst_stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286, "base_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 6.145833333333329, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329, "adverse_score": [ 20.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation", "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Current Old Dominion offensive capability and rushing tempo diverge materially from the prior-year foundation", "detail": "This is an event-specific offensive-transition mechanism, not ordinary model disagreement. The official notes document Colton Joseph leaving for Wisconsin, a new offensive coordinator, Henicle returning from an injury absence, and 61 rushes for 207 yards in a 10-point last game. Six current games average 18.1667 points versus 32.6667 last season. The frozen current-matchup home component is 21.25 versus the 29.8417 production mean. This supported downside can erase more than half the spread edge and cross the over line; independent ordinary stress defeats both. Unconfirmed Connor Drake protection status remains a separate MEDIUM risk.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true, "sources": [ "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\score-freeze.json", "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-game-notes.json", "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-preview.json" ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen current-season matchup", "score": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336, "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643, "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." }, { "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667, "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333, "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." } ], "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections 3, 5 and 7: current context, supported invalidation and adverse-case tests." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Conservative ON excludes unresolved medium risk", "Unresolved HIGH: supported current offensive capability and tempo adverse case fails the selected market." ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 3.1458333333333286, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 6.145833333333329, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329, "adverse_score": [ 20.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 6.145833333333329, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329, "adverse_score": [ 20.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "buffer": 4.645833333333329, "stressed_buffer": 1.6458333333333286, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "buffer": 3.7593901812618213, "stressed_buffer": 0.7593901812618213, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "home_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 53.64583333333333, "under_selection_total": 53.64583333333333 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier.", "prior_numerical_decision": "PASS", "mechanism_adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen current-season matchup", "score": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336, "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643, "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." }, { "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667, "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333, "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." } ], "policy_reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:58:53.027918+00:00" } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 6.037499999999998, "combined": 53.64583333333333, "spread_buffer": 9.537499999999998, "total_difference": 6.145833333333329 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.037499999999998, "combined": 53.64583333333333, "spread_buffer": 9.537499999999998, "total_difference": 6.145833333333329 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401869950", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869950", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.586472+00:00", "selection_side": "home", "line": 3.5, "home_line": 3.5, "pick": "Old Dominion Monarchs +3.5", "price": -110.0, "canonical_buffer": 9.537499999999998, "required_buffer": 3, "minimum_branch_buffer": 9.537499999999998, "worst_applicable_buffer": 9.537499999999998, "worst_stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998, "base_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 9.537499999999998, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998, "adverse_score": [ 26.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation", "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Current Old Dominion offensive capability and rushing tempo diverge materially from the prior-year foundation", "detail": "This is an event-specific offensive-transition mechanism, not ordinary model disagreement. The official notes document Colton Joseph leaving for Wisconsin, a new offensive coordinator, Henicle returning from an injury absence, and 61 rushes for 207 yards in a 10-point last game. Six current games average 18.1667 points versus 32.6667 last season. The frozen current-matchup home component is 21.25 versus the 29.8417 production mean. This supported downside can erase more than half the spread edge and cross the over line; independent ordinary stress defeats both. Unconfirmed Connor Drake protection status remains a separate MEDIUM risk.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true, "sources": [ "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\score-freeze.json", "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-game-notes.json", "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-preview.json" ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen current-season matchup", "score": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336, "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643, "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." }, { "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667, "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333, "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." } ], "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections 3, 5 and 7: current context, supported invalidation and adverse-case tests." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Unresolved HIGH: supported current offensive capability and tempo adverse case fails the selected market." ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 6.537499999999998, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 9.537499999999998, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998, "adverse_score": [ 26.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 9.537499999999998, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.537499999999998, "adverse_score": [ 26.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 6.537499999999998 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "buffer": 7.520833333333332, "stressed_buffer": 4.520833333333332, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "buffer": 14.79916726402799, "stressed_buffer": 11.79916726402799, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "home_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 53.64583333333333, "under_selection_total": 53.64583333333333 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier.", "prior_numerical_decision": "CANDIDATE_ELIGIBLE", "mechanism_adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen current-season matchup", "score": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336, "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643, "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." }, { "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667, "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333, "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." } ], "policy_reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:58:53.027918+00:00" }, "total": { "event_id": "401869950", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "matchup": "Georgia Southern Eagles at Old Dominion Monarchs", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869950", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.586472+00:00", "selection_side": "over", "line": 47.5, "home_line": 3.5, "pick": "Over 47.5", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 6.145833333333329, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": 6.145833333333329, "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.145833333333329, "worst_stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286, "base_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 6.145833333333329, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329, "adverse_score": [ 20.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation", "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Current Old Dominion offensive capability and rushing tempo diverge materially from the prior-year foundation", "detail": "This is an event-specific offensive-transition mechanism, not ordinary model disagreement. The official notes document Colton Joseph leaving for Wisconsin, a new offensive coordinator, Henicle returning from an injury absence, and 61 rushes for 207 yards in a 10-point last game. Six current games average 18.1667 points versus 32.6667 last season. The frozen current-matchup home component is 21.25 versus the 29.8417 production mean. This supported downside can erase more than half the spread edge and cross the over line; independent ordinary stress defeats both. Unconfirmed Connor Drake protection status remains a separate MEDIUM risk.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true, "sources": [ "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\score-freeze.json", "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-game-notes.json", "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\football\\odu-preview.json" ], "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen current-season matchup", "score": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336, "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643, "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." }, { "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667, "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333, "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." } ], "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections 3, 5 and 7: current context, supported invalidation and adverse-case tests." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Unresolved HIGH: supported current offensive capability and tempo adverse case fails the selected market." ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 3.1458333333333286, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 6.145833333333329, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329, "adverse_score": [ 20.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "buffer": 6.145833333333329, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.145833333333329, "adverse_score": [ 20.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.1458333333333286 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 24.0625, 28.083333333333332 ], "buffer": 4.645833333333329, "stressed_buffer": 1.6458333333333286, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 19.980111458616914, 31.279278722644904 ], "buffer": 3.7593901812618213, "stressed_buffer": 0.7593901812618213, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ], "home_selection": [ 23.804166666666667, 29.841666666666665 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 53.64583333333333, "under_selection_total": 53.64583333333333 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier.", "prior_numerical_decision": "CANDIDATE_ELIGIBLE", "mechanism_adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen current-season matchup", "score": [ 26.083333333333336, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336, "over_buffer": -0.1666666666666643, "over_stressed_buffer": -3.1666666666666643, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." }, { "name": "Current ODU offensive capability with TU opponent held fixed", "score": [ 23.804166666666667, 21.25 ], "ODU_spread_buffer": 0.9458333333333329, "ODU_spread_stressed_buffer": -2.054166666666667, "over_buffer": -2.445833333333333, "over_stressed_buffer": -5.445833333333333, "source": "Frozen Tighten Up inputs.terms.current_matchup; diagnostic only, not a fifth forecast or model mean revision." } ], "policy_reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:58:53.027918+00:00" } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892508", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892508", "date": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "5404", "fullName": "Little Caesars Arena", "address": { "city": "Detroit", "state": "MI", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "away": "15", "away_name": "Philadelphia Flyers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "Detroit Red Wings", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.7621683194853923, 3.1115585633878315 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7621683194853923, 3.1115585633878315 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7621683194853923, 3.1115585633878315 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 8, "current_weight": 0.2857142857142857, "prior_rates": [ 3.048780487804878, 2.9634146341463414 ], "current_rates": [ 1.25, 3.875 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 2.9390243902439024, 3.1463414634146343 ], "current_rates": [ 2.3333333333333335, 3.3333333333333335 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0408536585365855, "mean_margin_error": 1.1651031894934332, "mean_total_error": 1.8578799249530955, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0121900000000004, 5.01219 ], "home": [ 0.9146299999999998, 4.91463 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.80491775348926, 2.9704035112387235 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.80491775348926, 2.9704035112387235 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.80491775348926, 2.9704035112387235 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2853, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-15T00:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "52c34c3445f9a414a983487152c4386aef5a0f4df759d280912f7f17468318de" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0580661730553012, "mean_margin_error": 1.1735321999404547, "mean_total_error": 1.9050370803767076, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0121900000000004, 5.01219 ], "home": [ 0.9146299999999998, 4.91463 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.0121900000000004, 2.91463 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0121900000000004, 2.91463 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0121900000000004, 2.91463 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4, "official_team_name": "Philadelphia Flyers" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.91463, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 17, "official_team_name": "Detroit Red Wings" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0121900000000004, 5.01219 ], "home": [ 0.9146299999999998, 4.91463 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.0121900000000004, 2.91463 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0121900000000004, 2.91463 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0121900000000004, 2.91463 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4, "official_team_name": "Philadelphia Flyers" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.91463, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 17, "official_team_name": "Detroit Red Wings" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0121900000000004, 5.01219 ], "home": [ 0.9146299999999998, 4.91463 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "PHI: Konecny/Barkey unavailable; new York Out and Ristolainen IR require conditional defensive/PP branches. Current replacements unconfirmed. DET: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 8 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Little Caesars Arena; listed 2026-10-15T23:30Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892508", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Philadelphia Flyers", "home": "Detroit Red Wings", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:30:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "venue": { "id": "5404", "fullName": "Little Caesars Arena", "address": { "city": "Detroit", "state": "MI", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:30 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:30 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Philadelphia Flyers", "previous_game": { "id": "401892492", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1845", "fullName": "Xfinity Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "124292", "away_name": "Seattle Kraken", "away_score": 3.0, "home": "15", "home_name": "Philadelphia Flyers", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20739.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Detroit Red Wings", "previous_game": { "id": "401892488", "date": "2026-10-13T22:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "5404", "fullName": "Little Caesars Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Detroit", "state": "MI", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "11", "away_name": "New Jersey Devils", "away_score": 5.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "Detroit Red Wings", "home_score": 4.0, "day": 20739.916666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020110, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. 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"player": "Christian Dvorak", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 830, "PP_seconds": 133, "SH_seconds": 152 }, { "player_id": 8477948, "player": "Travis Sanheim", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1490, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 368 }, { "player_id": 8480021, "player": "Jack Studnicka", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 546, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476461, "player": "Sean Couturier", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 992, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 282 }, { "player_id": 8484387, "player": "Matvei Michkov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 747, "PP_seconds": 139, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480220, "player": "Noah Cates", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 41 }, { "player_id": 8481533, "player": "Trevor Zegras", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1177, "PP_seconds": 118, "SH_seconds": 8 }, { "player_id": 8483460, "player": "David Jiricek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 654, "PP_seconds": 128, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484142, "player": "Denver Barkey", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 805, "PP_seconds": 127, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15713, "PP_seconds": 1270, "SH_seconds": 1514 }, "conditional_branches": [], "return_branches": "Any return depends on current official clearance; prior actual role samples retained, future minutes unestimated.", "PP_units": "Unknown final units; official actual strength exposure retained, no roster-order inference", "line_combinations": "Latest actual official skaters and retained prior previews; October15 final lines not announced.", "OT_note": "Observed workload includes any OT; not a forecast of penalties or OT." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8476461, "name": { "default": "S. 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Foerster" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:58", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8480015, "name": { "default": "O. Tippett" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:37", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8484142, "name": { "default": "D. Barkey" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:32", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8485406, "name": { "default": "P. Martone" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:31", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8483460, "name": { "default": "D.Jiricek", "cs": "D.Ji\u0159\u00ed\u010dek", "sk": "D.Ji\u0159\u00ed\u010dek" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:02", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8477948, "name": { "default": "T. Sanheim" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "31:04", "shifts": 32 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8482142, "name": { "default": "J. Drysdale" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:27", "shifts": 32 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8476372, "name": { "default": "N. Seeler" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:19", "shifts": 31 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8481122, "name": { "default": "S. Benoit" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:58", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020094, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "playerId": 8484148, "name": { "default": "O. Bonk" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:00", "shifts": 26 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.7621683194853923, 3.1115585633878315 ], "Primary": [ 2.80491775348926, 2.9704035112387235 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.0121900000000004, 2.91463 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.0121900000000004, 2.91463 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020094/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8481546/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8484142/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477499/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478439/landing" ], "findings": "Konecny/Barkey unavailable; new York Out and Ristolainen IR require conditional defensive/PP branches. Current replacements unconfirmed.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8478569, "player": "Noel Acciari", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8484142, "player": "Denver Barkey", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8478047, "player": "Michael Bunting", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8480220, "player": "Noah Cates", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8476461, "player": "Sean Couturier", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8477989, "player": "Christian Dvorak", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8482159, "player": "Tyson Foerster", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8483733, "player": "Nikita Grebenkin", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8478439, "player": "Travis Konecny", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8485406, "player": "Porter Martone", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8484387, "player": "Matvei Michkov", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8480021, "player": "Jack Studnicka", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8480015, "player": "Owen Tippett", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8475253, "player": "Garrett Wilson", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8481533, "player": "Trevor Zegras", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8481122, "player": "Simon Benoit", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8484148, "player": "Oliver Bonk", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8482142, "player": "Jamie Drysdale", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8482169, "player": "Helge Grans", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8483460, "player": "David Jiricek", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8477499, "player": "Rasmus Ristolainen", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8477948, "player": "Travis Sanheim", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8476372, "player": "Nick Seeler", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8481546, "player": "Cam York", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8478435, "player": "Dan Vladar", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8479361, "player": "Joseph Woll", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Philadelphia Flyers", "abbreviation": "PHI", "player": "Denver Barkey", "player_id": "5173105", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-05T15:55Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/15/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.087590+00:00" }, { "team": "Philadelphia Flyers", "abbreviation": "PHI", "player": "Travis Konecny", "player_id": "3900169", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-11T18:01Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/15/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.087590+00:00" }, { "team": "Philadelphia Flyers", "abbreviation": "PHI", "player": "Rasmus Ristolainen", "player_id": "3041999", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-14T17:16Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/15/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.087590+00:00" }, { "team": "Philadelphia Flyers", "abbreviation": "PHI", "player": "Cam York", "player_id": "4565235", "injuries": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-14T17:43Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/15/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.087590+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8484142, "incumbent": "Denver Barkey", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-05T15:55Z" } ], "reference_role": { "player_id": 8484142, "player": "Denver Barkey", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 805, "PP_seconds": 127, "SH_seconds": 0 }, "reference_present": true, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476372, "player": "Nick Seeler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1065, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 326 }, { "player_id": 8482142, "player": "Jamie Drysdale", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1231, "PP_seconds": 126, "SH_seconds": 50 }, { "player_id": 8481122, "player": "Simon Benoit", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 681, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 94 }, { "player_id": 8482159, "player": "Tyson Foerster", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 786, "PP_seconds": 113, "SH_seconds": 59 }, { "player_id": 8484148, "player": "Oliver Bonk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1195, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478569, "player": "Noel Acciari", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 562, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8485406, "player": "Porter Martone", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 584, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478047, "player": "Michael Bunting", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 437, "PP_seconds": 113, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480015, "player": "Owen Tippett", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1099, "PP_seconds": 138, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477989, "player": "Christian Dvorak", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 830, "PP_seconds": 133, "SH_seconds": 152 }, { "player_id": 8477948, "player": "Travis Sanheim", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1490, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 368 }, { "player_id": 8480021, "player": "Jack Studnicka", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 546, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476461, "player": "Sean Couturier", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 992, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 282 }, { "player_id": 8484387, "player": "Matvei Michkov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 747, "PP_seconds": 139, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480220, "player": "Noah Cates", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 41 }, { "player_id": 8481533, "player": "Trevor Zegras", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1177, "PP_seconds": 118, "SH_seconds": 8 }, { "player_id": 8483460, "player": "David Jiricek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 654, "PP_seconds": 128, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Dated status versus actual play checked; contemporaneous flag conditional, older flag superseded by participation.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8484142, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8484142/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 57, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 50, "goals": 25, "leagueAbbrev": "OHL", "pim": 22, "plusMinus": 46, "points": 82, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "London Knights" } }, { "assists": 4, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "Memorial Cup", "pim": 14, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 7, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "London Knights" } }, { "assists": 11, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 9, "leagueAbbrev": "OHL", "pim": 10, "plusMinus": 18, "points": 20, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "London Knights" } }, { "assists": 12, "avgToi": "13:24", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.388889, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 43, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 17, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.116279, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 43, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 9, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 26, "goals": 7, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 20, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 16, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Lehigh Valley Phantoms" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "13:01", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.354839, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.111111, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 9, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "13:56", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.333333, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8478439, "incumbent": "Travis Konecny", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-11T18:01Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476372, "player": "Nick Seeler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1065, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 326 }, { "player_id": 8482142, "player": "Jamie Drysdale", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1231, "PP_seconds": 126, "SH_seconds": 50 }, { "player_id": 8481122, "player": "Simon Benoit", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 681, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 94 }, { "player_id": 8482159, "player": "Tyson Foerster", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 786, "PP_seconds": 113, "SH_seconds": 59 }, { "player_id": 8484148, "player": "Oliver Bonk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1195, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478569, "player": "Noel Acciari", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 562, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8485406, "player": "Porter Martone", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 584, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478047, "player": "Michael Bunting", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 437, "PP_seconds": 113, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480015, "player": "Owen Tippett", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1099, "PP_seconds": 138, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477989, "player": "Christian Dvorak", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 830, "PP_seconds": 133, "SH_seconds": 152 }, { "player_id": 8477948, "player": "Travis Sanheim", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1490, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 368 }, { "player_id": 8480021, "player": "Jack Studnicka", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 546, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476461, "player": "Sean Couturier", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 992, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 282 }, { "player_id": 8484387, "player": "Matvei Michkov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 747, "PP_seconds": 139, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480220, "player": "Noah Cates", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 41 }, { "player_id": 8481533, "player": "Trevor Zegras", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1177, "PP_seconds": 118, "SH_seconds": 8 }, { "player_id": 8483460, "player": "David Jiricek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 654, "PP_seconds": 128, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484142, "player": "Denver Barkey", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 805, "PP_seconds": 127, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8478439, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478439/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 52, "avgToi": "20:36", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.39, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 24, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 53, "plusMinus": -17, "points": 76, "powerPlayGoals": 8, "powerPlayPoints": 17, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.12766, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 3, "shots": 188, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 10, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 12, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 13, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "Canada" } }, { "assists": 2, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "International", "pim": 0, "points": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 13, "teamName": { "default": "Team Canada" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "11:15", "faceoffWinningPctg": 1.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "4 Nations", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 44, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 2, "teamName": { "default": "Canada" } }, { "assists": 41, "avgToi": "19:05", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.377358, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 77, "goals": 27, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 59, "plusMinus": 14, "points": 68, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 14, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.160714, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 168, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "18:18", "faceoffWinningPctg": 1.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 26, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.076923, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 13, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "16:49", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.75, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 8, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8477499, "incumbent": "Rasmus Ristolainen", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-14T17:16Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476372, "player": "Nick Seeler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1065, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 326 }, { "player_id": 8482142, "player": "Jamie Drysdale", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1231, "PP_seconds": 126, "SH_seconds": 50 }, { "player_id": 8481122, "player": "Simon Benoit", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 681, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 94 }, { "player_id": 8482159, "player": "Tyson Foerster", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 786, "PP_seconds": 113, "SH_seconds": 59 }, { "player_id": 8484148, "player": "Oliver Bonk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1195, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478569, "player": "Noel Acciari", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 562, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8485406, "player": "Porter Martone", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 584, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478047, "player": "Michael Bunting", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 437, "PP_seconds": 113, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480015, "player": "Owen Tippett", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1099, "PP_seconds": 138, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477989, "player": "Christian Dvorak", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 830, "PP_seconds": 133, "SH_seconds": 152 }, { "player_id": 8477948, "player": "Travis Sanheim", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1490, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 368 }, { "player_id": 8480021, "player": "Jack Studnicka", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 546, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476461, "player": "Sean Couturier", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 992, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 282 }, { "player_id": 8484387, "player": "Matvei Michkov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 747, "PP_seconds": 139, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480220, "player": "Noah Cates", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 41 }, { "player_id": 8481533, "player": "Trevor Zegras", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1177, "PP_seconds": 118, "SH_seconds": 8 }, { "player_id": 8483460, "player": "David Jiricek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 654, "PP_seconds": 128, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484142, "player": "Denver Barkey", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 805, "PP_seconds": 127, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8477499, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477499/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 15, "avgToi": "20:31", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 63, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 14, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 19, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.04, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 100, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 13, "avgToi": "21:23", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 44, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": 10, "points": 14, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.017241, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 58, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "19:45", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 7, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Finland", "cs": "Finsko", "de": "Finnland", "es": "Finlandia", "fi": "Suomi", "fr": "Finlande", "sk": "F\u00ednsko" }, "teamName": { "default": "Finland", "cs": "Finsko", "de": "Finnland", "es": "Finlandia", "fi": "Suomi", "fr": "Finlande", "sk": "F\u00ednsko" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "25:00", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 20, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.055556, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 18, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "18:17", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.25, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8481546, "incumbent": "Cam York", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-14T17:43Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476372, "player": "Nick Seeler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1065, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 326 }, { "player_id": 8482142, "player": "Jamie Drysdale", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1231, "PP_seconds": 126, "SH_seconds": 50 }, { "player_id": 8481122, "player": "Simon Benoit", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 681, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 94 }, { "player_id": 8482159, "player": "Tyson Foerster", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 786, "PP_seconds": 113, "SH_seconds": 59 }, { "player_id": 8484148, "player": "Oliver Bonk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1195, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478569, "player": "Noel Acciari", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 562, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8485406, "player": "Porter Martone", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 584, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478047, "player": "Michael Bunting", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 437, "PP_seconds": 113, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480015, "player": "Owen Tippett", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1099, "PP_seconds": 138, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477989, "player": "Christian Dvorak", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 830, "PP_seconds": 133, "SH_seconds": 152 }, { "player_id": 8477948, "player": "Travis Sanheim", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1490, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 368 }, { "player_id": 8480021, "player": "Jack Studnicka", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 546, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476461, "player": "Sean Couturier", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 992, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 282 }, { "player_id": 8484387, "player": "Matvei Michkov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 747, "PP_seconds": 139, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480220, "player": "Noah Cates", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 41 }, { "player_id": 8481533, "player": "Trevor Zegras", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1177, "PP_seconds": 118, "SH_seconds": 8 }, { "player_id": 8483460, "player": "David Jiricek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 654, "PP_seconds": 128, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484142, "player": "Denver Barkey", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 805, "PP_seconds": 127, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8481546, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8481546/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 13, "avgToi": "20:47", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 66, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 26, "plusMinus": -8, "points": 17, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.061538, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 65, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 22, "avgToi": "22:32", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 74, "goals": 4, 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"Michkov", "otTimeOnIce": 143, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 47.66666, "playerId": 8484387, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1452, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 181.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 154, "shiftsPerGame": 19.25, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Matvei Michkov", "teamAbbrevs": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 7234, "timeOnIcePerGame": 904.25, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.97402 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5458, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 682.25, "gamesPlayed": 8, "lastName": "Martone", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8485406, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 937, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 117.125, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 135, "shiftsPerGame": 16.875, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Porter Martone", "teamAbbrevs": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 6395, "timeOnIcePerGame": 799.375, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.37037 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892508", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.7621683194853923, 3.1115585633878315 ], "Primary": [ 2.80491775348926, 2.9704035112387235 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.0121900000000004, 2.91463 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.0121900000000004, 2.91463 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020110, "team": "DET", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 1150, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1150.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020090, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Larkin", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 20, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 20.0, "playerId": 8477946, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 108, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 108.0, "shTimeOnIce": 20, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 20.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Dylan Larkin", "teamAbbrev": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1278, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1278.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.15384 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1276, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1276.0, "gameDate": 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"player_id": 8475753, "player": "Justin Faulk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1138, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8477971, "player": "Andreas Englund", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 909, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484794, "player": "Michael Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1128, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478042, "player": "Viktor Arvidsson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1102, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483679, "player": "Anton Johansson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 850, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477429, "player": "Andrew Copp", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1059, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 24 }, { "player_id": 8479337, "player": "Alex DeBrincat", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1177, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484471, "player": "Emmitt Finnie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1088, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481607, "player": "Albert Johansson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 25 }, { "player_id": 8480326, "player": "Sheldon Dries", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 712, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 22 }, { "player_id": 8475279, "player": "Ben Chiarot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1142, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8479992, "player": "Michael Rasmussen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1015, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8482078, "player": "Lucas Raymond", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1062, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482802, "player": "Carter Mazur", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 370, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484223, "player": "Axel Sandin-Pellikka", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 858, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 17421, "PP_seconds": 600, "SH_seconds": 184 }, "conditional_branches": [], "return_branches": "Any return depends on current official clearance; prior actual role samples retained, future minutes unestimated.", "PP_units": "Unknown final units; official actual strength exposure retained, no roster-order inference", "line_combinations": "Latest actual official skaters and retained prior previews; October15 final lines not announced.", "OT_note": "Observed workload includes any OT; not a forecast of penalties or OT." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8480326, "name": { "default": "S. Dries" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:14", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8477429, "name": { "default": "A. Copp" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:15", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8482078, "name": { "default": "L. Raymond" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:30", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8479992, "name": { "default": "M. Rasmussen" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:33", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8484794, "name": { "default": "M. Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd" }, "position": "R", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:00", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8478042, "name": { "default": "V. Arvidsson" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:10", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8482802, "name": { "default": "C. Mazur" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "06:10", "shifts": 10 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8478434, "name": { "default": "K. Kolesar" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:01", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8484471, "name": { "default": "E. Finnie" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:20", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8477946, "name": { "default": "D. Larkin" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:18", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8479337, "name": { "default": "A. DeBrincat" }, "position": "R", "goals": 2, "assists": 1, "points": 3, "sog": 6, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:25", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8475279, "name": { "default": "B. Chiarot" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:22", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8481607, "name": { "default": "A. Johansson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:29", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8477971, "name": { "default": "A. Englund" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:09", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8483679, "name": { "default": "A. Johansson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:10", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8484223, "name": { "default": "A. Sandin-Pellikka" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:18", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8481542, "name": { "default": "M. Seider" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:25", "shifts": 28 }, { "event_id": 2026020090, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "playerId": 8475753, "name": { "default": "J. Faulk" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:36", "shifts": 25 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.7621683194853923, 3.1115585633878315 ], "Primary": [ 2.80491775348926, 2.9704035112387235 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.0121900000000004, 2.91463 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.0121900000000004, 2.91463 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020090/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483464/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477456/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478891/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482762/landing" ], "findings": "Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8478891, "player": "Mason Appleton", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8478042, "player": "Viktor Arvidsson", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8484794, "player": "Michael Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8477456, "player": "J.T. Compher", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8477429, "player": "Andrew Copp", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8484160, "player": "Nate Danielson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8479337, "player": "Alex DeBrincat", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8480326, "player": "Sheldon Dries", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8484471, "player": "Emmitt Finnie", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8483464, "player": "Marco Kasper", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8478434, "player": "Keegan Kolesar", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8477946, "player": "Dylan Larkin", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8482802, "player": "Carter Mazur", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8479992, "player": "Michael Rasmussen", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8482078, "player": "Lucas Raymond", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8480879, "player": "Jacob Bernard-Docker", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8475279, "player": "Ben Chiarot", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8477971, "player": "Andreas Englund", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8475753, "player": "Justin Faulk", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8481607, "player": "Albert Johansson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8483679, "player": "Anton Johansson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8484223, "player": "Axel Sandin-Pellikka", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8481542, "player": "Moritz Seider", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8482171, "player": "William Wallinder", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8476434, "player": "John Gibson", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8480193, "player": "Daniil Tarasov", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Detroit Red Wings", "abbreviation": "DET", "player": "Mason Appleton", "player_id": "3942043", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T21:08Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/5/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.705983+00:00" }, { "team": "Detroit Red Wings", "abbreviation": "DET", "player": "Marco Kasper", "player_id": "5080152", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T15:39Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/5/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.705983+00:00" }, { "team": "Detroit Red Wings", "abbreviation": "DET", "player": "J.T. Compher", "player_id": "3041995", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-13T14:14Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/5/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.705983+00:00" }, { "team": "Detroit Red Wings", "abbreviation": "DET", "player": "Simon Edvinsson", "player_id": "4874720", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-14T15:15Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/5/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.705983+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8478891, "incumbent": "Mason Appleton", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T21:08Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477946, "player": "Dylan Larkin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1150, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8481542, "player": "Moritz Seider", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1276, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 21 }, { "player_id": 8478434, "player": "Keegan Kolesar", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 601, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475753, "player": "Justin Faulk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1138, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8477971, "player": "Andreas Englund", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 909, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484794, "player": "Michael Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1128, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478042, "player": "Viktor Arvidsson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1102, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483679, "player": "Anton Johansson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 850, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477429, "player": "Andrew Copp", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1059, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 24 }, { "player_id": 8479337, "player": "Alex DeBrincat", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1177, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484471, "player": "Emmitt Finnie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1088, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481607, "player": "Albert Johansson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 25 }, { "player_id": 8480326, "player": "Sheldon Dries", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 712, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 22 }, { "player_id": 8475279, "player": "Ben Chiarot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1142, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8479992, "player": "Michael Rasmussen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1015, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8482078, "player": "Lucas Raymond", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1062, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482802, "player": "Carter Mazur", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 370, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484223, "player": "Axel Sandin-Pellikka", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 858, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8478891, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478891/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 12, "avgToi": "14:50", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.454545, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 71, "goals": 10, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": 7, "points": 22, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.093458, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 107, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Jets" }, "teamName": { "default": "Winnipeg Jets", "fr": "Jets de Winnipeg" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Winnipeg", "fr": "de Winnipeg" } }, { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "14:51", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.333333, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 14, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 16, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Jets" }, "teamName": { "default": "Winnipeg Jets", "fr": "Jets de Winnipeg" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Winnipeg", "fr": "de Winnipeg" } }, { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "13:31", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.272727, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 65, "goals": 6, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 44, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 14, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.095238, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 63, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "9:51", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8483464, "incumbent": "Marco Kasper", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T15:39Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477946, "player": "Dylan Larkin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1150, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8481542, "player": "Moritz Seider", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1276, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 21 }, { "player_id": 8478434, "player": "Keegan Kolesar", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 601, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475753, "player": "Justin Faulk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1138, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8477971, "player": "Andreas Englund", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 909, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484794, "player": "Michael Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1128, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478042, "player": "Viktor Arvidsson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1102, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483679, "player": "Anton Johansson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 850, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477429, "player": "Andrew Copp", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1059, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 24 }, { "player_id": 8479337, "player": "Alex DeBrincat", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1177, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484471, "player": "Emmitt Finnie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1088, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481607, "player": "Albert Johansson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 25 }, { "player_id": 8480326, "player": "Sheldon Dries", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 712, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 22 }, { "player_id": 8475279, "player": "Ben Chiarot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1142, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8479992, "player": "Michael Rasmussen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1015, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8482078, "player": "Lucas Raymond", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1062, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482802, "player": "Carter Mazur", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 370, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484223, "player": "Axel Sandin-Pellikka", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 858, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8483464, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483464/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 18, "avgToi": "15:27", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.448882, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 77, "goals": 19, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 34, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 37, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.131034, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 145, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } }, { "assists": 1, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 7, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Grand Rapids Griffins" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "OGQ", "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "Austria" } }, { "assists": 3, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 8, "points": 7, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 13, "teamName": { "default": "Austria" } }, { "assists": 10, "avgToi": "13:48", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.514541, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 81, "goals": 9, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 33, "plusMinus": -20, "points": 19, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.068702, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 131, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "10:50", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.642857, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 5, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8477456, "incumbent": "J.T. Compher", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-13T14:14Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477946, "player": "Dylan Larkin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1150, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8481542, "player": "Moritz Seider", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1276, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 21 }, { "player_id": 8478434, "player": "Keegan Kolesar", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 601, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475753, "player": "Justin Faulk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1138, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8477971, "player": "Andreas Englund", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 909, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484794, "player": "Michael Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1128, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478042, "player": "Viktor Arvidsson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1102, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483679, "player": "Anton Johansson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 850, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477429, "player": "Andrew Copp", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1059, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 24 }, { "player_id": 8479337, "player": "Alex DeBrincat", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1177, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484471, "player": "Emmitt Finnie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1088, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481607, "player": "Albert Johansson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 25 }, { "player_id": 8480326, "player": "Sheldon Dries", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 712, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 22 }, { "player_id": 8475279, "player": "Ben Chiarot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1142, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8479992, "player": "Michael Rasmussen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1015, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8482078, "player": "Lucas Raymond", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1062, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482802, "player": "Carter Mazur", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 370, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484223, "player": "Axel Sandin-Pellikka", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 858, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8477456, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477456/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 21, "avgToi": "16:41", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.451135, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 76, "goals": 11, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 24, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 32, "powerPlayGoals": 5, "powerPlayPoints": 9, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.112245, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 98, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } }, { "assists": 17, "avgToi": "15:40", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.508806, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 11, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 27, "plusMinus": -13, "points": 28, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.115789, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 95, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "14:40", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.423077, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8482762, "incumbent": "Simon Edvinsson", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-14T15:15Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477946, "player": "Dylan Larkin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1150, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8481542, "player": "Moritz Seider", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1276, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 21 }, { "player_id": 8478434, "player": "Keegan Kolesar", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 601, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475753, "player": "Justin Faulk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1138, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8477971, "player": "Andreas Englund", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 909, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484794, "player": "Michael Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1128, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478042, "player": "Viktor Arvidsson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1102, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483679, "player": "Anton Johansson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 850, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477429, "player": "Andrew Copp", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1059, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 24 }, { "player_id": 8479337, "player": "Alex DeBrincat", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1177, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484471, "player": "Emmitt Finnie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1088, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481607, "player": "Albert Johansson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 25 }, { "player_id": 8480326, "player": "Sheldon Dries", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 712, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 22 }, { "player_id": 8475279, "player": "Ben Chiarot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1142, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8479992, "player": "Michael Rasmussen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1015, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8482078, "player": "Lucas Raymond", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1062, "PP_seconds": 108, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482802, "player": "Carter Mazur", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 370, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484223, "player": "Axel Sandin-Pellikka", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 858, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8482762, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482762/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 24, "avgToi": "21:07", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 78, "goals": 7, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 67, "plusMinus": 12, "points": 31, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.081395, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 86, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } }, { "assists": 4, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "EHT", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 4, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Sweden" } }, { "assists": 1, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "Sweden" } }, { "assists": 16, "avgToi": "22:21", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 72, "goals": 9, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 75, "plusMinus": 12, "points": 25, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.102273, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 88, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8475279, 8475753, 8476434, 8477429, 8477456, 8477946, 8477971, 8478042, 8478434, 8478891, 8479337, 8479992, 8480193, 8480326, 8480879, 8481542, 8481607, 8482078, 8482171, 8482762, 8482802, 8483464, 8483679, 8484160, 8484223, 8484471, 8484794 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 81, "points": 13, "skaterFullName": "Ben Chiarot", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 4, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "shots": 109, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 9, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.03669, "evPoints": 12, "playerId": 8475279, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1273.9382, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 78, "points": 32, "skaterFullName": "Justin Faulk", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 3, "ppGoals": 1, "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "shots": 124, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 28, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 12, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.03225, "evPoints": 20, "playerId": 8475753, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1347.0256, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 56, "points": 23, "skaterFullName": "Andrew Copp", "goals": 10, "evGoals": 9, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "shots": 68, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 13, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.14705, "evPoints": 21, "playerId": 8477429, "shGoals": 1, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 882.1428, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 76, "points": 32, "skaterFullName": "J.T. Compher", "goals": 11, "evGoals": 6, "ppGoals": 5, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "shots": 98, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 21, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 9, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.11224, "evPoints": 23, "playerId": 8477456, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1000.8684, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 70, "skaterFullName": "Dylan Larkin", "goals": 30, "evGoals": 17, "ppGoals": 13, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "shots": 234, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 40, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 27, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.1282, "evPoints": 43, "playerId": 8477946, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1204.2439, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 35, "points": 3, "skaterFullName": "Andreas Englund", "goals": 1, "evGoals": 1, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "LAK,NSH", "shots": 17, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 2, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.05882, "evPoints": 3, "playerId": 8477971, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 795.6857, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 67, "points": 27, "skaterFullName": "Viktor Arvidsson", "goals": 15, "evGoals": 14, "ppGoals": 1, "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "shots": 158, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 12, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.09493, "evPoints": 24, "playerId": 8478042, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 899.791, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 30, "skaterFullName": "Keegan Kolesar", "goals": 12, "evGoals": 12, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "shots": 88, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 18, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.13636, "evPoints": 29, "playerId": 8478434, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 791.6341, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 71, "points": 22, "skaterFullName": "Mason Appleton", "goals": 10, "evGoals": 10, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "WPG", "shots": 107, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 12, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.09345, "evPoints": 21, "playerId": 8478891, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 889.8732, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 70, "skaterFullName": "Alex 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"skaterFullName": "Keegan Kolesar", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 4474, "timeOnIcePerGame": 745.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.67272 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 945, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 472.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Appleton", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478891, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 236, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 118.0, "shifts": 33, "shiftsPerGame": 16.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Mason Appleton", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1181, "timeOnIcePerGame": 590.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 35.78787 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5818, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 969.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "DeBrincat", "otTimeOnIce": 150, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 75.0, "playerId": 8479337, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1428, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 238.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 15, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.5, "shifts": 134, "shiftsPerGame": 22.33333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Alex DeBrincat", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 7261, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1210.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.18656 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4606, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 767.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Rasmussen", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8479992, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 545, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 90.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 975, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 162.5, "shifts": 137, "shiftsPerGame": 22.83333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Michael Rasmussen", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 6126, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1021.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.71532 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1855, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 618.33333, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Dries", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480326, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 124, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 41.33333, "shifts": 51, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Sheldon Dries", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1979, "timeOnIcePerGame": 659.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.80392 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6641, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1106.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Seider", "otTimeOnIce": 204, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 102.0, "playerId": 8481542, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1472, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 245.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 906, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 151.0, "shifts": 172, "shiftsPerGame": 28.66666, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Moritz Seider", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 9019, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1503.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.43604 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5081, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 846.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Johansson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481607, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 19, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.16666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 769, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 128.16666, "shifts": 133, "shiftsPerGame": 22.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Albert Johansson", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 5869, "timeOnIcePerGame": 978.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.12781 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5669, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 944.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Raymond", "otTimeOnIce": 141, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 70.5, "playerId": 8482078, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1482, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 247.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 159, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 26.5, "shifts": 140, "shiftsPerGame": 23.33333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Lucas Raymond", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 7310, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1218.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.21428 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1485, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 742.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Wallinder", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482171, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 158, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 79.0, "shifts": 40, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "William Wallinder", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1643, "timeOnIcePerGame": 821.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.075 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1511, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 503.66666, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Mazur", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482802, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 39, "shiftsPerGame": 13.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Carter Mazur", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1511, "timeOnIcePerGame": 503.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.74358 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 544, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 544.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Kasper", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483464, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 57, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 57.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 49, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 49.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Marco Kasper", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 650, "timeOnIcePerGame": 650.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.625 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5178, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 863.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Johansson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483679, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 11, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 480, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 80.0, "shifts": 118, "shiftsPerGame": 19.66666, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Anton Johansson", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 5669, "timeOnIcePerGame": 944.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.04237 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2650, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 530.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Danielson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484160, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 67, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 13.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 28, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.6, "shifts": 68, "shiftsPerGame": 13.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nate Danielson", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 2745, "timeOnIcePerGame": 549.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.36764 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3374, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 674.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Sandin-Pellikka", "otTimeOnIce": 93, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 46.5, "playerId": 8484223, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 375, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 75.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 250, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 50.0, "shifts": 88, "shiftsPerGame": 17.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Axel Sandin-Pellikka", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 3999, "timeOnIcePerGame": 799.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.44318 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5153, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 858.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Finnie", "otTimeOnIce": 122, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 61.0, "playerId": 8484471, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 507, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 84.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 399, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 66.5, "shifts": 130, "shiftsPerGame": 21.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Emmitt Finnie", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 6059, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1009.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.60769 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5034, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 839.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "otTimeOnIce": 14, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 7.0, "playerId": 8484794, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 380, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 63.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 117, "shiftsPerGame": 19.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Michael Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 5414, "timeOnIcePerGame": 902.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.2735 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892508", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.7621683194853923, 3.1115585633878315 ], "Primary": [ 2.80491775348926, 2.9704035112387235 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.0121900000000004, 2.91463 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.0121900000000004, 2.91463 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings", "market": { "id": "401892508", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892508", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 185.0, "away_line_price": -225.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -120.0, "under_price": 100.0, "home_ml": -142.0, "away_ml": 120.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.3493902439024392, "combined": 5.873726882873224, "spread_buffer": -1.1506097560975608, "total_difference": 0.37372688287322386 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.3493902439024392, "combined": 5.873726882873224, "spread_buffer": -1.1506097560975608, "total_difference": 0.37372688287322386 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.1654857577494635, "combined": 5.7753212647279835, "spread_buffer": -1.3345142422505365, "total_difference": 0.27532126472798346 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.1654857577494635, "combined": 5.7753212647279835, "spread_buffer": -1.3345142422505365, "total_difference": 0.27532126472798346 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.09756000000000054, "combined": 5.92682, "spread_buffer": -1.5975600000000005, "total_difference": 0.4268200000000002 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.09756000000000054, "combined": 5.92682, "spread_buffer": -1.5975600000000005, "total_difference": 0.4268200000000002 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.09756000000000054, "combined": 5.92682, "spread_buffer": -1.5975600000000005, "total_difference": 0.4268200000000002 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.09756000000000054, "combined": 5.92682, "spread_buffer": -1.5975600000000005, "total_difference": 0.4268200000000002 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401908945", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401908945", "date": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY" }, "indoor": true }, "away": "28", "away_name": "Toronto Raptors", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "18", "home_name": "New York Knicks", "home_score": 0.0 }, 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Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 114.63414634146342, 111.8048780487805 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 116.45121951219512, 110.1219512195122 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.879790940766556, "mean_margin_error": 14.369337979094079, "mean_total_error": 15.07142857142858, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 92.37805, 132.37805 ], "home": [ 94.12805, 134.12805 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 108.57736182803465, 114.18209673657334 ], "adjusted_score": [ 108.57736182803465, 114.18209673657334 ], "conditional_score": [ 108.57736182803465, 114.18209673657334 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2793, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-15T02:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "457ae047ea15a7ffc7de4e90d2ac2d4f84dbd6c20dd5526978bdafeea2860856" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 5, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.35893445183261935, 0.9177810759959433 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.772562407159187, "mean_margin_error": 13.818307868656559, "mean_total_error": 15.251879813887456, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 92.37805, 132.37805 ], "home": [ 94.12805, 134.12805 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 112.37805, 114.12805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.37805, 114.12805 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.37805, 114.12805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.63415, "pa": 111.80488 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.45122, "pa": 110.12195 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 6, "accuracy": 0.8571428571428571, "wilson95": [ 0.4868721707256811, 0.9743203756552565 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 12.02047053571429, "mean_margin_error": 14.798779642857147, "mean_total_error": 15.07055821428572, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 92.37805, 132.37805 ], "home": [ 94.12805, 134.12805 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 112.37805, 114.12805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.37805, 114.12805 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.37805, 114.12805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.63415, "pa": 111.80488 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.45122, "pa": 110.12195 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 6, "accuracy": 0.8571428571428571, "wilson95": [ 0.4868721707256811, 0.9743203756552565 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 12.02047053571429, "mean_margin_error": 14.798779642857147, "mean_total_error": 15.07055821428572, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 92.37805, 132.37805 ], "home": [ 94.12805, 134.12805 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "New York Knicks: Latest October 13 reserve-heavy reference excludes Brunson/Towns/Anunoby/Bridges/Hart; league-hosted news says presumed rest and possible Thursday return. Earlier actual roles retained, not permanent absences. Toronto Raptors: Leonard/Barrett/Barnes/Poeltl/Quickley most recent starting lineup. Bittle DTD; Jemison October 14, Hepburn October 12, Andre Jackson October 5 waived, excluded from opportunities.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2793 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Madison Square Garden; listed 2026-10-15T23:30Z. Official home-team schedule matches Oct 15 vs TOR 7:30 pm ET Madison Square Garden Preseason. No automatic activation from preseason games.", "details": { "event_id": "401908945", "sport": "NBA", "away": "Toronto Raptors", "home": "New York Knicks", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:30:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "venue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 1, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0.0", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:30 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:30 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.215511+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612752/schedule" ], "context": [ "Official home-team schedule matches Oct 15 vs TOR 7:30 pm ET Madison Square Garden Preseason. No automatic activation from preseason games." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "previous_game": { "id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1838", "fullName": "Scotiabank Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Toronto", "state": "ON" } }, "away": "18", "away_name": "New York Knicks", "away_score": 98.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Toronto Raptors", "home_score": 148.0, "day": 20739.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "New York Knicks", "previous_game": { "id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1838", "fullName": "Scotiabank Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Toronto", "state": "ON" } }, "away": "18", "away_name": "New York Knicks", "away_score": 98.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Toronto Raptors", "home_score": 148.0, "day": 20739.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "stage_label": "Preseason / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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"Tyler Kolek", "reference_minutes": 28.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 28.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.20833333333333334, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4375, "reference_TS": 0.5067567567567567, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4683730", "player": "Jaden Akins", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.125, "reference_TS": 0.2252252252252252, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Andre Jackson Jr.", "Chucky Hepburn", "Otega Oweh", "Robert McCray V", "Trey Jemison III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction.", "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "alternate_actual_preseason_reference_branches": [ { "reference_date": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "scenario": "Alternative actual preseason role; conditional return not coach commitment", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "3934719", "player": "OG Anunoby", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.117647058823529, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.42857142857142855, "reference_TS": 0.6224066390041494, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 15.126050420168067, "creation_assist_share": 0.08695652173913043, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.625, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 13.109243697478991, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "3147657", "player": "Mikal Bridges", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 15.126050420168067, "creation_assist_share": 0.13043478260869565, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2, "reference_TS": 0.25510204081632654, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "3934672", "player": "Jalen Brunson", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 15.126050420168067, "creation_assist_share": 0.13043478260869565, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.6756756756756757, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "3914285", "player": "Drew Eubanks", "reference_minutes": 6.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.050420168067227, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": null, "reference_TS": 0.5681818181818182, "conditional_FGA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4838721", "player": "Tyler Nickel", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 8.067226890756302, "creation_assist_share": 0.043478260869565216, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "5211983", "player": "Pacome Dadiet", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.15126050420168, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4166666666666667, "reference_TS": 0.4166666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "5289900", "player": "Mohamed Diawara", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.142857142857142, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "6585", "player": "Andre Drummond", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.100840336134453, "creation_assist_share": 0.043478260869565216, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.41666666666666663, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4065673", "player": "Tony Bradley", "reference_minutes": 6.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.050420168067227, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4432808", "player": "James Wiseman", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.07563025210084, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.6024096385542168, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "2528426", "player": "Jordan Clarkson", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.117647058823529, "creation_assist_share": 0.043478260869565216, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.3073770491803279, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "3914044", "player": "Landry Shamet", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.092436974789916, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.625, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4065670", "player": "Bruce Brown", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.084033613445378, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.3333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4397018", "player": "Ochai Agbaji", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 8.067226890756302, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.1288659793814433, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4411057", "player": "Kevin McCullar Jr.", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.084033613445378, "creation_assist_share": 0.043478260869565216, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.5102040816326531, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4431823", "player": "Miles McBride", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.100840336134453, "creation_assist_share": 0.13043478260869565, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4433225", "player": "Tyler Kolek", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.142857142857142, "creation_assist_share": 0.21739130434782608, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.45955882352941174, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4683730", "player": "Jaden Akins", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 8.067226890756302, "creation_assist_share": 0.13043478260869565, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.75, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Andre Jackson Jr.", "Chucky Hepburn", "Otega Oweh", "Robert McCray V", "Trey Jemison III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." }, { "reference_date": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "scenario": "Alternative actual preseason role; conditional return not coach commitment", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "3934719", "player": "OG Anunoby", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6097560975609757, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.35714285714285715, "reference_TS": 0.4566210045662101, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6875, "reference_TS": 0.7319819819819819, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "3147657", "player": "Mikal Bridges", "reference_minutes": 20.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 20.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.16666666666666666, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3934672", "player": "Jalen Brunson", "reference_minutes": 20.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 20.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5416666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.522508038585209, "conditional_FGA": 12.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "4838721", "player": "Tyler Nickel", "reference_minutes": 6.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.07142857142857142, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.75, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5211983", "player": "Pacome Dadiet", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3125, "reference_TS": 0.3125, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "5289900", "player": "Mohamed Diawara", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "6585", "player": "Andre Drummond", "reference_minutes": 20.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.14285714285714285, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 5.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.4629629629629629, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4432808", "player": "James Wiseman", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6666666666666666, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "2528426", "player": "Jordan Clarkson", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7, "reference_TS": 0.7, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3914044", "player": "Landry Shamet", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7857142857142857, "reference_TS": 0.8248730964467005, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4065670", "player": "Bruce Brown", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6666666666666666, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4277869", "player": "Jose Alvarado", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2857142857142857, "reference_TS": 0.3807106598984772, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4431823", "player": "Miles McBride", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.35714285714285715, "reference_TS": 0.4032258064516129, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4433225", "player": "Tyler Kolek", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.25, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4683730", "player": "Jaden Akins", "reference_minutes": 6.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8333333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.8333333333333334, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Andre Jackson Jr.", "Chucky Hepburn", "Otega Oweh", "Robert McCray V", "Trey Jemison III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." }, { "reference_date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "scenario": "Alternative actual preseason role; conditional return not coach commitment", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "3934719", "player": "OG Anunoby", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5625, "reference_TS": 0.7048872180451128, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5833333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.7087628865979382, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.125, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "3147657", "player": "Mikal Bridges", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5833333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.6540697674418605, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3934672", "player": "Jalen Brunson", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.125, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6053268765133172, "conditional_FGA": 13.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 8.0, "conditional_2PA": 9.0 }, { "player_id": "3914285", "player": "Drew Eubanks", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.9421487603305785, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6666666666666666, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5211983", "player": "Pacome Dadiet", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.884297520661157, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 0.9020618556701031, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5289900", "player": "Mohamed Diawara", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.892561983471074, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "6585", "player": "Andre Drummond", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.900826446280991, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6944444444444444, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4065673", "player": "Tony Bradley", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.9421487603305785, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "2528426", "player": "Jordan Clarkson", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.917355371900827, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8333333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.8333333333333334, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "3914044", "player": "Landry Shamet", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.900826446280991, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.3472222222222222, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4277869", "player": "Jose Alvarado", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.87603305785124, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.25, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "4397018", "player": "Ochai Agbaji", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.917355371900827, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.2577319587628866, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4411057", "player": "Kevin McCullar Jr.", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.9421487603305785, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4431823", "player": "Miles McBride", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.892561983471074, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3, "reference_TS": 0.3, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4433225", "player": "Tyler Kolek", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.900826446280991, "creation_assist_share": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.3676470588235294, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Andre Jackson Jr.", "Chucky Hepburn", "Otega Oweh", "Robert McCray V", "Trey Jemison III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." } ], "unknown_return_roles": [], "return_rule": "No current sample => unestimated return workload, no inventedminutes. Current season preseason separate from prior regular seasons." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "5289900", "player": "Mohamed Diawara", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "MIN": "29", "3PT": "3-7", "PTS": "13", "AST": "1", "FG": "5-10", "TO": "0", "OREB": "0", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4432808", "player": "James Wiseman", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "MIN": "24", "3PT": "0-0", "PTS": "18", "AST": "0", "FG": "7-8", "TO": "3", "OREB": "4", "FT": "4-4" }, { "event_id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4065670", "player": "Bruce Brown", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "MIN": "18", "3PT": "1-2", "PTS": "5", "AST": "2", "FG": "2-4", "TO": "2", "OREB": "1", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4277869", "player": "Jose Alvarado", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "MIN": "17", "3PT": "0-2", "PTS": "4", "AST": "4", "FG": "2-6", "TO": "1", "OREB": "2", "FT": "0-2" }, { "event_id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4431823", "player": "Miles McBride", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "MIN": "19", "3PT": "0-4", "PTS": "8", "AST": "3", "FG": "2-7", "TO": "2", "OREB": "0", "FT": "4-5" }, { "event_id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3914285", "player": "Drew Eubanks", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "MIN": "15", "3PT": "0-0", "PTS": "8", "AST": "2", "FG": "3-5", "TO": "1", "OREB": "1", "FT": "2-4" }, { "event_id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4838721", "player": "Tyler Nickel", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "MIN": "21", "3PT": "1-9", "PTS": "11", "AST": "0", "FG": "3-11", "TO": "0", "OREB": "0", "FT": "4-5" }, { "event_id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "5211983", "player": "Pacome Dadiet", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "MIN": "18", "3PT": "1-7", "PTS": "10", "AST": "1", "FG": "3-9", "TO": "0", "OREB": "1", "FT": "3-4" }, { "event_id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4065673", "player": "Tony Bradley", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "MIN": "9", "3PT": "0-0", "PTS": "4", "AST": "0", "FG": "2-4", "TO": "1", "OREB": "0", "FT": "0-1" }, { "event_id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4397018", "player": "Ochai Agbaji", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "MIN": "10", "3PT": "0-1", "PTS": "0", "AST": "0", "FG": "0-2", "TO": "0", "OREB": "0", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4411057", "player": "Kevin McCullar Jr.", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "MIN": "18", "3PT": "0-2", "PTS": "4", "AST": "2", "FG": "1-4", "TO": "2", "OREB": "0", "FT": "2-4" }, { "event_id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4433225", "player": "Tyler Kolek", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "MIN": "28", "3PT": "1-4", "PTS": "9", "AST": "5", "FG": "3-8", "TO": "4", "OREB": "0", "FT": "2-2" }, { "event_id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4683730", "player": "Jaden Akins", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "MIN": "14", "3PT": "0-3", "PTS": "4", "AST": "4", "FG": "1-8", "TO": "1", "OREB": "1", "FT": "2-2" } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "points", "adjustment_units": "points", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 110.8780487804878, 115.6280487804878 ], "Primary": [ 108.57736182803465, 114.18209673657334 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 112.37805, 114.12805 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 112.37805, 114.12805 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "https://www.nba.com/players/transactions", "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612752/knicks" ], "findings": "Latest October 13 reserve-heavy reference excludes Brunson/Towns/Anunoby/Bridges/Hart; league-hosted news says presumed rest and possible Thursday return. Earlier actual roles retained, not permanent absences.", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4397018", "player": "Ochai Agbaji", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4683730", "player": "Jaden Akins", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4277869", "player": "Jose Alvarado", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3934719", "player": "OG Anunoby", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-13T02:40Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4065673", "player": "Tony Bradley", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3147657", "player": "Mikal Bridges", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-13T02:47Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4065670", "player": "Bruce Brown", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3934672", "player": "Jalen Brunson", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-13T02:20Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "2528426", "player": "Jordan Clarkson", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "5211983", "player": "Pacome Dadiet", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "5289900", "player": "Mohamed Diawara", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "6585", "player": "Andre Drummond", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3914285", "player": "Drew Eubanks", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-13T02:40Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4433225", "player": "Tyler Kolek", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4431823", "player": "Miles McBride", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4411057", "player": "Kevin McCullar Jr.", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4838721", "player": "Tyler Nickel", "position": "F", 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0.2857142857142857, "reference_TS": 0.4347826086956522, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "3914285", "player": "Drew Eubanks", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6, "reference_TS": 0.591715976331361, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4838721", "player": "Tyler Nickel", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3181818181818182, "reference_TS": 0.4166666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 11.0, "conditional_3PA": 9.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "5211983", "player": "Pacome Dadiet", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3888888888888889, "reference_TS": 0.4646840148698885, "conditional_FGA": 9.0, "conditional_3PA": 7.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4065673", "player": "Tony Bradley", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.4504504504504504, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4397018", "player": "Ochai Agbaji", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 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"Jaden Akins", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.125, "reference_TS": 0.2252252252252252, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 } ], "conclusion": "Already absent from latest reference; actual teammates carry displayed opportunity. 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"2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "totals", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3147657/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "592-1183", "fieldGoalPct": "50.0", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "164-463", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "35.4", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "96-118", "freeThrowPct": "81.4", "offensiveRebounds": "71", "assists": "306", "turnovers": "132", "points": "1444" }, { "player_id": "3147657", "player": "Mikal Bridges", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "totals", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3147657/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "472-963", "fieldGoalPct": "49.0", 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"https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3934672/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.9", "scoringEfficiency": "1.306", "shootingEfficiency": "0.53" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3934672", "player": "Jalen Brunson", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "MIN": "22", "3PT": "1-4", "PTS": "20", "AST": "3", "FG": "6-13", "TO": "2", "OREB": "0", "FT": "7-8" }, { "event_id": "401906508", "date": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3934672", "player": "Jalen Brunson", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401906508", "MIN": "20", "3PT": "1-6", "PTS": "13", "AST": 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"reference_TS": 0.29069767441860467, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4431823", "player": "Miles McBride", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.125, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2857142857142857, "reference_TS": 0.4347826086956522, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "3914285", "player": "Drew Eubanks", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6, "reference_TS": 0.591715976331361, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4838721", "player": "Tyler Nickel", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3181818181818182, "reference_TS": 0.4166666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 11.0, "conditional_3PA": 9.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "5211983", "player": "Pacome Dadiet", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3888888888888889, "reference_TS": 0.4646840148698885, "conditional_FGA": 9.0, "conditional_3PA": 7.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4065673", "player": "Tony Bradley", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.4504504504504504, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4397018", "player": "Ochai Agbaji", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4411057", "player": "Kevin McCullar Jr.", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.3472222222222222, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4433225", "player": "Tyler Kolek", "reference_minutes": 28.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 28.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.20833333333333334, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4375, "reference_TS": 0.5067567567567567, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4683730", "player": "Jaden Akins", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.125, "reference_TS": 0.2252252252252252, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 } ], "conclusion": "Already absent from latest reference; actual teammates carry displayed opportunity. 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"avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "2.1-2.7", "freeThrowPct": "77.6", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "2.1", "avgAssists": "5.9", "avgTurnovers": "2.1", "avgPoints": "13.6" }, { "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "averages", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3062679/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "66", "gamesStarted": "52", "avgMinutes": "30.2", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "4.6-9.0", "fieldGoalPct": "50.8", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "1.5-3.7", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "41.3", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "1.4-1.9", "freeThrowPct": "72.0", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "1.4", "avgAssists": "4.8", "avgTurnovers": "1.9", "avgPoints": "12.0" }, { "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "totals", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3062679/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "404-770", "fieldGoalPct": "52.5", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "84-252", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "33.3", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "159-205", "freeThrowPct": "77.6", "offensiveRebounds": "161", "assists": "453", "turnovers": "158", "points": "1051" }, { "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "totals", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3062679/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "301-592", "fieldGoalPct": "50.8", 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"assistTurnoverRatio": "2.5", "scoringEfficiency": "1.338", "shootingEfficiency": "0.59" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "MIN": "22", "3PT": "0-1", "PTS": "2", "AST": "3", "FG": "1-2", "TO": "2", "OREB": "1", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401906508", "date": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401906508", "MIN": "21", "3PT": "1-3", "PTS": "13", "AST": "3", "FG": "5-8", "TO": "0", "OREB": "0", "FT": "2-2" }, { "event_id": "401914101", "date": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914101", "MIN": "13", "3PT": "0-0", "PTS": "2", "AST": "0", "FG": "1-1", "TO": "1", "OREB": "0", "FT": "0-0" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "5289900", "player": "Mohamed Diawara", "reference_minutes": 29.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 29.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.65, "reference_TS": 0.65, "conditional_FGA": 10.0, "conditional_3PA": 7.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4432808", "player": "James Wiseman", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 24.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, 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"player_id": "4431823", "player": "Miles McBride", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.125, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2857142857142857, "reference_TS": 0.4347826086956522, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "3914285", "player": "Drew Eubanks", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6, "reference_TS": 0.591715976331361, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4838721", "player": "Tyler Nickel", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3181818181818182, "reference_TS": 0.4166666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 11.0, "conditional_3PA": 9.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "5211983", "player": "Pacome Dadiet", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3888888888888889, "reference_TS": 0.4646840148698885, "conditional_FGA": 9.0, "conditional_3PA": 7.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4065673", "player": "Tony Bradley", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.4504504504504504, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4397018", "player": "Ochai Agbaji", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4411057", "player": "Kevin McCullar Jr.", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.3472222222222222, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4433225", "player": "Tyler Kolek", "reference_minutes": 28.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 28.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.20833333333333334, 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Return conditional, no repeated full-player deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Pools are descriptive subsets of team240minutes; never sum separate missing-player pools." }, { "incumbent_id": "3136195", "incumbent": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-13T02:47Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "averages", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3136195/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "72", "gamesStarted": "72", "avgMinutes": "35.0", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "8.9-16.9", "fieldGoalPct": "52.6", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "2.0-4.7", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "42.0", 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"season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "totals", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3136195/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "639-1215", "fieldGoalPct": "52.6", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "142-338", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "42.0", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "339-409", "freeThrowPct": "82.9", "offensiveRebounds": "212", "assists": "222", "turnovers": "192", "points": "1759" }, { "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "totals", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3136195/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "517-1032", "fieldGoalPct": "50.1", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "113-307", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "36.8", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "357-416", "freeThrowPct": "85.8", "offensiveRebounds": "233", "assists": "226", "turnovers": "187", "points": "1504" }, { "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3136195/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.2", "scoringEfficiency": "1.448", "shootingEfficiency": "0.58" }, { "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3136195/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.2", "scoringEfficiency": "1.457", "shootingEfficiency": "0.56" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "MIN": "22", "3PT": "1-4", "PTS": "11", "AST": "4", "FG": "3-6", "TO": "3", "OREB": "2", "FT": "4-4" }, { "event_id": "401906508", "date": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401906508", "MIN": "19", "3PT": "1-3", "PTS": "8", "AST": "3", "FG": "2-7", "TO": "3", "OREB": "2", "FT": "3-4" }, { "event_id": "401914101", "date": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914101", "MIN": "15", "3PT": "1-3", "PTS": "5", "AST": "2", "FG": "2-4", "TO": "2", "OREB": "0", "FT": "0-0" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "5289900", "player": "Mohamed Diawara", "reference_minutes": 29.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 29.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.65, "reference_TS": 0.65, "conditional_FGA": 10.0, "conditional_3PA": 7.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4432808", "player": "James Wiseman", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 24.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 4.0, "reference_eFG": 0.875, "reference_TS": 0.9221311475409836, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 8.0 }, { "player_id": "4065670", "player": "Bruce Brown", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 18.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.625, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4277869", "player": "Jose Alvarado", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 17.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.29069767441860467, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4431823", "player": "Miles McBride", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.125, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2857142857142857, "reference_TS": 0.4347826086956522, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "3914285", "player": "Drew Eubanks", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6, "reference_TS": 0.591715976331361, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4838721", "player": "Tyler Nickel", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3181818181818182, "reference_TS": 0.4166666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 11.0, "conditional_3PA": 9.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "5211983", "player": "Pacome Dadiet", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3888888888888889, "reference_TS": 0.4646840148698885, "conditional_FGA": 9.0, "conditional_3PA": 7.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4065673", "player": "Tony Bradley", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.4504504504504504, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4397018", "player": "Ochai Agbaji", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4411057", "player": "Kevin McCullar Jr.", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.3472222222222222, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4433225", "player": "Tyler Kolek", "reference_minutes": 28.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 28.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.20833333333333334, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4375, "reference_TS": 0.5067567567567567, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4683730", "player": "Jaden Akins", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.125, "reference_TS": 0.2252252252252252, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 } ], "conclusion": "Already absent from latest reference; actual teammates carry displayed opportunity. Return conditional, no repeated full-player deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Pools are descriptive subsets of team240minutes; never sum separate missing-player pools." } ], "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL240_MINUTES_SHOTS_CREATION_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401908945", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 110.8780487804878, 115.6280487804878 ], "Primary": [ 108.57736182803465, 114.18209673657334 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 112.37805, 114.12805 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 112.37805, 114.12805 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } }, { "sport": "NBA", "event_id": "401908945", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "rotation": [ { "player_id": "6450", "player": "Kawhi Leonard", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 17.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6962864721485411, "conditional_FGA": 12.0, "conditional_3PA": 8.0, "conditional_FTA": 7.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4395625", "player": "RJ Barrett", "reference_minutes": 23.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 23.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.08823529411764706, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5416666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.5985915492957746, "conditional_FGA": 12.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 8.0 }, { "player_id": "4433134", "player": "Scottie Barnes", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 22.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.11764705882352941, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8, "reference_TS": 0.8392226148409894, "conditional_FGA": 10.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 9.0 }, { "player_id": "3134908", "player": "Jakob Poeltl", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0416666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4395724", "player": 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0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.1, "reference_TS": 1.1, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4397784", "player": "Malachi Smith", "reference_minutes": 6.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.5, "reference_TS": 1.5, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4432241", "player": "Jamal Shead", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.14705882352941177, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6648936170212766, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4432737", "player": "Jaden Bradley", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6147540983606558, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4433138", "player": "Nimari Burnett", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4684272", "player": "Ja'Kobe Walter", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.875, "reference_TS": 0.875, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4702656", "player": "Alijah Martin", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Andre Jackson Jr.", "Chucky Hepburn", "Otega Oweh", "Robert McCray V", "Trey Jemison III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction.", "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "alternate_actual_preseason_reference_branches": [ { "reference_date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "scenario": "Alternative actual preseason role; conditional return not coach commitment", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "4395625", "player": "RJ Barrett", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 18.88888888888889, "creation_assist_share": 0.043478260869565216, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4444444444444444, "reference_TS": 0.5990415335463259, "conditional_FGA": 9.613291470434326, "conditional_3PA": 4.205128205128205, "conditional_FTA": 8.88888888888889, "conditional_2PA": 5.408163265306122 }, { "player_id": "4433134", "player": "Scottie Barnes", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 13.333333333333334, "creation_assist_share": 0.08695652173913043, "reference_AST": 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"conditional_FGA": 1.0416666666666667, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0416666666666667 }, { "player_id": "4397784", "player": "Malachi Smith", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.506493506493506, "creation_assist_share": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.4, "conditional_FGA": 5.125, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.125 }, { "player_id": "4432241", "player": "Jamal Shead", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 19.74025974025974, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5555555555555556, "reference_TS": 0.6298449612403101, "conditional_FGA": 9.25, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.25 }, { "player_id": "4432737", "player": "Jaden Bradley", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.819672131147541, "conditional_FGA": 4.166666666666667, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.166666666666667 }, { "player_id": "4433138", "player": "Nimari Burnett", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.623376623376622, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8333333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.8333333333333334, "conditional_FGA": 6.125, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.125 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Andre Jackson Jr.", "Chucky Hepburn", "Otega Oweh", "Robert McCray V", "Trey Jemison III" ], "calculation": "Normalize 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Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." } ], "unknown_return_roles": [ "Nate Bittle" ], "return_rule": "No current sample => unestimated return workload, no inventedminutes. 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"Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4397784", "player": "Malachi Smith", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902644", "MIN": "31", "3PT": "0-4", "PTS": "7", "AST": "2", "FG": "3-11", "TO": "3", "OREB": "2", "FT": "1-2" }, { "event_id": "401902644", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4432241", "player": "Jamal Shead", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902644", "MIN": "28", "3PT": "0-3", "PTS": "3", "AST": "7", "FG": "1-7", "TO": "2", "OREB": "2", "FT": "1-2" }, { "event_id": "401902644", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4432737", "player": "Jaden Bradley", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902644", "MIN": "20", "3PT": "1-1", "PTS": "9", "AST": "2", "FG": "3-4", "TO": "0", "OREB": "1", "FT": "2-4" }, { "event_id": "401902644", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4433138", "player": "Nimari Burnett", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902644", "MIN": "24", "3PT": "1-8", "PTS": "6", "AST": "3", "FG": "2-10", "TO": "4", "OREB": "0", "FT": "1-2" }, { "event_id": "401902644", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4590360", "player": "Chucky Hepburn", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902644", "MIN": "25", "3PT": "1-2", "PTS": "11", "AST": "2", "FG": "4-6", "TO": "2", "OREB": "1", "FT": "2-3" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": "4432586", "incumbent": "Nate Bittle", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-13T21:35Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "two_prior_season_rows": [], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4432586", "player": "Nate Bittle", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "DID NOT DRESS", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "6450", "player": "Kawhi Leonard", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 17.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6962864721485411, "conditional_FGA": 12.0, "conditional_3PA": 8.0, "conditional_FTA": 7.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4395625", "player": "RJ Barrett", "reference_minutes": 23.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 23.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.08823529411764706, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5416666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.5985915492957746, "conditional_FGA": 12.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 8.0 }, { "player_id": "4433134", "player": "Scottie Barnes", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 22.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.11764705882352941, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8, "reference_TS": 0.8392226148409894, "conditional_FGA": 10.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 9.0 }, { "player_id": "3134908", "player": "Jakob Poeltl", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": true, 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"conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4431684", "player": "Trayce Jackson-Davis", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0135135135135134, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4898260", "player": "Tyson Degenhart", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 7.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.375, "reference_TS": 0.4098360655737705, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5093267", "player": "Collin Murray-Boyles", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 1.1428571428571428, "reference_TS": 1.0844748858447488, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "5149115", "player": "Allen Graves", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.21428571428571427, "reference_TS": 0.31725888324873097, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4897696", "player": "Jamarion Sharp", "reference_minutes": 2.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 2.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": null, "reference_TS": null, "conditional_FGA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4279143", "player": "Tyreke Key", "reference_minutes": 6.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.1, "reference_TS": 1.1, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4397784", "player": "Malachi Smith", "reference_minutes": 6.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.5, "reference_TS": 1.5, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4432241", "player": "Jamal Shead", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.14705882352941177, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6648936170212766, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4432737", "player": "Jaden Bradley", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6147540983606558, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4433138", "player": "Nimari Burnett", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4684272", "player": "Ja'Kobe Walter", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.875, "reference_TS": 0.875, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4702656", "player": "Alijah Martin", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 } ], "conclusion": "Already absent from latest reference; actual teammates carry displayed opportunity. Return conditional, no repeated full-player deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Pools are descriptive subsets of team240minutes; never sum separate missing-player pools." } ], "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL240_MINUTES_SHOTS_CREATION_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401908945", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 110.8780487804878, 115.6280487804878 ], "Primary": [ 108.57736182803465, 114.18209673657334 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 112.37805, 114.12805 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 112.37805, 114.12805 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks", "market": { "id": "401908945", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908945", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.429271+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.594868+00:00", "home_line": -5.5, "away_line": 5.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 225.5, "under_line": 225.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -218.0, "away_ml": 180.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -5.5, "average_total": 225.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 4.75, "combined": 226.5060975609756, "spread_buffer": -0.75, "total_difference": 1.0060975609756042 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 4.75, "combined": 226.5060975609756, "spread_buffer": -0.75, "total_difference": 1.0060975609756042 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 5.604734908538688, "combined": 222.759458564608, "spread_buffer": 0.10473490853868839, "total_difference": -2.7405414353920037 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 5.604734908538688, "combined": 222.759458564608, "spread_buffer": 0.10473490853868839, "total_difference": -2.7405414353920037 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.75, "combined": 226.5061, "spread_buffer": -3.75, "total_difference": 1.0061000000000035 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.75, "combined": 226.5061, "spread_buffer": -3.75, "total_difference": 1.0061000000000035 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.75, "combined": 226.5061, "spread_buffer": -3.75, "total_difference": 1.0061000000000035 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.75, "combined": 226.5061, "spread_buffer": -3.75, "total_difference": 1.0061000000000035 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401860923", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401860923", "date": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3644", "fullName": "UFCU Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Marcos", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "away": "36", "away_name": "Colorado State Rams", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "326", "home_name": "Texas State Bobcats", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Hauss Hejny", "team": "Colorado State Rams", "side": "away", "condition": "Coach-reported QUESTIONABLE/partialpractice Oct12; official notes confirm priorhamstring", "replacement": "K'saan Farrar", "isolated_score": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "RJ Vick", "team": "Colorado State Rams", "side": "away", "condition": "Coach-reported probablydoubtful Oct12; finalofficialstatus unresolved", "replacement": "Jaivyn Moore", "isolated_score": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 18.5, 30.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 37.4, 38.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 36.083333333333336, 30.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 34.8, 33.2 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.42548076923077, "mean_margin_error": 7.765151515151514, "mean_total_error": 20.85096153846154, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 9.857499999999998, 45.8575 ], "home": [ 20.6425, 56.6425 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Hauss Hejny", "team": "Colorado State Rams", "side": "away", "condition": "Coach-reported QUESTIONABLE/partialpractice Oct12; official notes confirm priorhamstring", "replacement": "K'saan Farrar", "isolated_score": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "RJ Vick", "team": "Colorado State Rams", "side": "away", "condition": "Coach-reported probablydoubtful Oct12; finalofficialstatus unresolved", "replacement": "Jaivyn Moore", "isolated_score": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2918, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-15T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "e005e4abda23d1de291293dc4f138f9238627a73d6e3678002947d6660e3b6e1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.937399129678514, "mean_margin_error": 9.378697415636159, "mean_total_error": 19.87479825935703, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 9.857499999999998, 45.8575 ], "home": [ 20.6425, 56.6425 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Hauss Hejny", "team": "Colorado State Rams", "side": "away", "condition": "Coach-reported QUESTIONABLE/partialpractice Oct12; official notes confirm priorhamstring", "replacement": "K'saan Farrar", "isolated_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "RJ Vick", "team": "Colorado State Rams", "side": "away", "condition": "Coach-reported probablydoubtful Oct12; finalofficialstatus unresolved", "replacement": "Jaivyn Moore", "isolated_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.5, "pa": 30.833333333333332, "margin": -12.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752805", "401760364", "401760373", "401752950", "401760382", "401760388", "401760394", "401760398", "401760407", "401760411", "401760416", "401760421" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.4, "pa": 38.6, "margin": -1.2000000000000028, "event_ids": [ "401860878", "401860882", "401856795", "401860896", "401860899" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.083333333333336, "pa": 30.583333333333332, "margin": 5.5000000000000036, "event_ids": [ "401761594", "401761603", "401756889", "401761612", "401761620", "401761627", "401761632", "401761639", "401761648", "401761654", "401761659", "401761667" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.8, "pa": 33.2, "margin": 1.5999999999999943, "event_ids": [ "401856667", "401860884", "401860889", "401860892", "401860900" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.541666666666664, 33.458333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.3, 36.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.0633333333333335, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.323333333333334, "mean_margin_error": 7.977499999999996, "mean_total_error": 22.20608974358975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 9.857499999999998, 45.8575 ], "home": [ 20.6425, 56.6425 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Hauss Hejny", "team": "Colorado State Rams", "side": "away", "condition": "Coach-reported QUESTIONABLE/partialpractice Oct12; official notes confirm priorhamstring", "replacement": "K'saan Farrar", "isolated_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "RJ Vick", "team": "Colorado State Rams", "side": "away", "condition": "Coach-reported probablydoubtful Oct12; finalofficialstatus unresolved", "replacement": "Jaivyn Moore", "isolated_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.5, "pa": 30.833333333333332, "margin": -12.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752805", "401760364", "401760373", "401752950", "401760382", "401760388", "401760394", "401760398", "401760407", "401760411", "401760416", "401760421" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.4, "pa": 38.6, "margin": -1.2000000000000028, "event_ids": [ "401860878", "401860882", "401856795", "401860896", "401860899" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.083333333333336, "pa": 30.583333333333332, "margin": 5.5000000000000036, "event_ids": [ "401761594", "401761603", "401756889", "401761612", "401761620", "401761627", "401761632", "401761639", "401761648", "401761654", "401761659", "401761667" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.8, "pa": 33.2, "margin": 1.5999999999999943, "event_ids": [ "401856667", "401860884", "401860889", "401860892", "401860900" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.541666666666664, 33.458333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.3, 36.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.0633333333333335, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.323333333333334, "mean_margin_error": 7.977499999999996, "mean_total_error": 22.20608974358975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 9.857499999999998, 45.8575 ], "home": [ 20.6425, 56.6425 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved", "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Colorado State Rams: Hauss Hejny Coach-reported QUESTIONABLE/partialpractice Oct12; official notes confirm priorhamstring; Hejny had four TCU games with no pass attempts in 2024, one Oklahoma State start with ten attempts in 2025, and three current starts with 47 completions in 73 attempts for 619 yards, ten touchdowns and one interception. Farrar current totals are 63 of 103 for 649 yards in four games and two starts. His 2025 UConn row is 11 of 18 for 84 yards; official biography games and vendor games differ and remain source-labeled. Partial practice is not full clearance. Apply minus three only if meaningful replacement workload continues.; RJ Vick Coach-reported probablydoubtful Oct12; finalofficialstatus unresolved; Vick leads the current receivers with 24 catches for 367 yards and four touchdowns in five games. His 2024 Virginia Union Division II season produced 48 catches for 1,164 yards; official bios disagree on touchdowns (10 versus 12), so that field remains disputed. Wake Forest verifies four appearances and 14 snaps in 2025. Moore has three current catches for 16 yards. His official Iowa Western seasons are now retained separately: 2024 nine games, 21 catches, 302 yards, three touchdowns; 2025 thirteen games, 30 catches, 629 yards, twelve touchdowns. No college-level conversion or exact future target allocation is invented. Texas State Bobcats: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Registered baselines are unchanged. Isolated minus-three scenarios and joint overlap are explicit; Conservative ON/OFF use identical scoring arithmetic. Unestimated defensive pathways retain the relevant risk gate.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "UFCU Stadium; listed 2026-10-16T00:00Z. Official NCAA complete weekly feed and host preview corroborate matchup, venue and kickoff. Personnel branches retained in football ledger.", "details": { "event_id": "401860923", "sport": "NCAAF", "away": "Colorado State Rams", "home": "Texas State Bobcats", "start_et": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3644", "fullName": "UFCU Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Marcos", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 8:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000&groups=80", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.204069+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A7%7D", "https://txst.com/news/2026/10/13/football-game-preview-txst-vs-colorado-state.aspx" ], "context": [ "Official NCAA complete weekly feed and host preview corroborate matchup, venue and kickoff. Personnel branches retained in football ledger." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Colorado State Rams", "previous_game": { "id": "401860899", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "away": "204", "away_name": "Oregon State Beavers", "away_score": 56.0, "home": "36", "home_name": "Colorado State Rams", "home_score": 26.0, "day": 20729.916666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 12, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Texas State Bobcats", "previous_game": { "id": "401860900", "date": "2026-10-04T02:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "away": "326", "away_name": "Texas State Bobcats", "away_score": 29.0, "home": "21", "home_name": "San Diego State Aztecs", "home_score": 31.0, "day": 20730.104166666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 12, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/EWX/149,74/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:50.539939+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-15T04:33:08+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 20, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 85, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 51 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "ESE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 82, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 56 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "ESE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 78, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 67 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "ESE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 76, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 71 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "stage_label": "FBS regular season" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:50.539939+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-15T04:33:08+00:00; periods: number: 20; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 85; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 51; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: ESE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 82; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 56; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: ESE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 78; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 67; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: ESE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T23:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 76; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 71; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/EWX/149,74/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:50.539939+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-15T04:33:08+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 20, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 85, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 51 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "ESE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 82, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 56 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "ESE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 78, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 67 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "ESE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 76, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 71 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved", "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. 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A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/6_26_Colorado_State_TXST_Game_Notes.pdf?timestamp=20261013095042" }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Juice Vereen", "Dominic Toy", "Nader Chirchi", "Pearce Spurlin III" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/6_26_Colorado_State_TXST_Game_Notes.pdf?timestamp=20261013095042" } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "K'saan Farrar", "Hauss Hejny", "Darius Curry" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/6_26_Colorado_State_TXST_Game_Notes.pdf?timestamp=20261013095042" }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Durell Robinson", "Mel Brown", "Cedric Ross", "Oliver Lundberg" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/6_26_Colorado_State_TXST_Game_Notes.pdf?timestamp=20261013095042" }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "RJ Vick", "Jaivyn Moore", "Terrence Smith Jr.", "Jackson Harper", "Tommy Maher", "Lavon Brown" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/6_26_Colorado_State_TXST_Game_Notes.pdf?timestamp=20261013095042" }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Juice Vereen", "Dominic Toy", "Nader Chirchi", "Pearce Spurlin III" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/6_26_Colorado_State_TXST_Game_Notes.pdf?timestamp=20261013095042" } ], "reference_lineup": "The official notes label the chart PREVIOUS GAME STARTERS. Hejny and Vick require conditional review because a current official final availability report was not obtained. Reported questionable/doubtful status is not converted to OUT.", "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Hauss Hejny", "pos": "QB", "conditional": true, "status": "Coach-reported QUESTIONABLE/partialpractice Oct12; official notes confirm priorhamstring", "pool": [ "K'saan Farrar", "Darius Curry" ], "basis": "Hejny had four TCU games with no pass attempts in 2024, one Oklahoma State start with ten attempts in 2025, and three current starts with 47 completions in 73 attempts for 619 yards, ten touchdowns and one interception. Farrar current totals are 63 of 103 for 649 yards in four games and two starts. His 2025 UConn row is 11 of 18 for 84 yards; official biography games and vendor games differ and remain source-labeled. Partial practice is not full clearance. Apply minus three only if meaningful replacement workload continues.", "familiarity": "Farrar followed Jim Mora from UConn. Official roster coverage identifies several UConn receivers and tight ends with system familiarity. Both quarterbacks participated in Colorado State spring practice. No protection-call or coaching coefficient is invented.", "sources": [ "csu-game-notes", "csu-hejny-reported", "bio-hauss-hejny", "bio-ksaan-farrar", "csu-system-familiarity" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 } }, "comparison": [ { "name": "Hauss Hejny", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-5079443.json", "name": "Hauss Hejny", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5079443/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.365764+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2628", "teamSlug": "tcu-horned-frogs", "stats": { "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "0.0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "197", "teamSlug": "oklahoma-state-cowboys", "stats": { "completions": "5", "passingAttempts": "10", "completionPct": "50.0", "passingYards": "96", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "9.6", "passingTouchdowns": "1", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "41", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "163.6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "36", "teamSlug": "colorado-state-rams", "stats": { "completions": "47", "passingAttempts": "73", "completionPct": "64.4", "passingYards": "619", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "8.5", "passingTouchdowns": "10", "interceptions": "1", "longPassing": "68", "sacks": "1", "QBRating": "178.2" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2628", "teamSlug": "tcu-horned-frogs", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "15", "rushingYards": "65", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "21" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "197", "teamSlug": "oklahoma-state-cowboys", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "4", "rushingYards": "27", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "14" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "36", "teamSlug": "colorado-state-rams", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "13", "rushingYards": "128", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "9.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "75" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "36", "teamSlug": "colorado-state-rams", "stats": { "receptions": "1", "receivingYards": "28", "yardsPerReception": "28.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "28" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "K'saan Farrar", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-5212610.json", "name": "K'saan Farrar", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5212610/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.325043+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "completions": "11", "passingAttempts": "18", "completionPct": "61.1", "passingYards": "84", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "4.7", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "28", "sacks": "1", "QBRating": "100.3" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "36", "teamSlug": "colorado-state-rams", "stats": { "completions": "63", "passingAttempts": "103", "completionPct": "61.2", "passingYards": "649", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "6.3", "passingTouchdowns": "3", "interceptions": "2", "longPassing": "74", "sacks": "1", "QBRating": "119.9" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "9", "rushingYards": "30", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "21" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "36", "teamSlug": "colorado-state-rams", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "8", "rushingYards": "17", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "9" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Darius Curry", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-5122401.json", "name": "Darius Curry", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5122401/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.325043+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "36", "teamSlug": "colorado-state-rams", "stats": { "completions": "70", "passingAttempts": "107", "completionPct": "65.4", "passingYards": "740", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "6.9", "passingTouchdowns": "5", "interceptions": "7", "longPassing": "79", "sacks": "5", "QBRating": "125.9" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "36", "teamSlug": "colorado-state-rams", "stats": { "completions": "6", "passingAttempts": "8", "completionPct": "75.0", "passingYards": "70", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "8.8", "passingTouchdowns": "1", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "30", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "190.2" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "36", "teamSlug": "colorado-state-rams", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "17", "rushingYards": "25", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "20" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "36", "teamSlug": "colorado-state-rams", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "4", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." } ], "source_urls": [ "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/6_26_Colorado_State_TXST_Game_Notes.pdf?timestamp=20261013095042", "https://www.aol.com/articles/hauss-hejny-injury-csu-qb-172352000.html", "https://csurams.com/sports/football/roster/hauss-hejny/14899", "https://csurams.com/sports/football/roster/ksaan-farrar/14894", "https://csurams.com/news/2026/1/29/football-rams-build-roster-for-moras-debut-season" ], "incremental_effect": "Unestimated incremental statistical effect. Preserve the registered baseline, which already includes some affected games. The human deduction is an additional labeled assumption, not a measured loss or a three-point cap.", "state": "Coach-reported QUESTIONABLE/partialpractice Oct12; official notes confirm priorhamstring", "position": "QB", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "K'saan Farrar", "replacement_pool": [ "K'saan Farrar", "Darius Curry" ], "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Hejny had four TCU games with no pass attempts in 2024, one Oklahoma State start with ten attempts in 2025, and three current starts with 47 completions in 73 attempts for 619 yards, ten touchdowns and one interception. Farrar current totals are 63 of 103 for 649 yards in four games and two starts. His 2025 UConn row is 11 of 18 for 84 yards; official biography games and vendor games differ and remain source-labeled. Partial practice is not full clearance. Apply minus three only if meaningful replacement workload continues.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "adjusted": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ] }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "adjusted": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ] }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "adjusted": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "adjusted": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] } }, "scenario_id": "401860923-away-hauss-hejny", "human_deduction": -3 }, { "player": "RJ Vick", "pos": "WR", "conditional": true, "status": "Coach-reported probablydoubtful Oct12; finalofficialstatus unresolved", "pool": [ "Jaivyn Moore", "Terrence Smith Jr.", "Jackson Harper", "Lavon Brown" ], "basis": "Vick leads the current receivers with 24 catches for 367 yards and four touchdowns in five games. His 2024 Virginia Union Division II season produced 48 catches for 1,164 yards; official bios disagree on touchdowns (10 versus 12), so that field remains disputed. Wake Forest verifies four appearances and 14 snaps in 2025. Moore has three current catches for 16 yards. His official Iowa Western seasons are now retained separately: 2024 nine games, 21 catches, 302 yards, three touchdowns; 2025 thirteen games, 30 catches, 629 yards, twelve touchdowns. No college-level conversion or exact future target allocation is invented.", "familiarity": "Vick participated in Colorado State spring practice. Moore transferred from Iowa Western; a prior personal relationship was not established. Smith and Harper played at UConn with Mora. Current practice supports familiarity but does not establish identical route assignments.", "sources": [ "csu-game-notes", "csu-hejny-reported", "bio-rj-vick", "bio-jaivyn-moore", "vick-wake-bio", "csu-wr-familiarity" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 } }, "comparison": [ { "name": "RJ Vick", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-5232343.json", "name": "RJ Vick", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5232343/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:11.422703+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "36", "teamSlug": "colorado-state-rams", "stats": { "receptions": "24", "receivingYards": "367", "yardsPerReception": "15.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "57" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "36", "teamSlug": "colorado-state-rams", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "18", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "18.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "18" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Jaivyn Moore", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-5446698.json", "name": "Jaivyn Moore", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5446698/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.983854+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "36", "teamSlug": "colorado-state-rams", "stats": { "receptions": "3", "receivingYards": "16", "yardsPerReception": "5.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "9" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Terrence Smith Jr.", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-5193168.json", "name": "Terrence Smith Jr.", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5193168/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:11.297112+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "34", "yardsPerReception": "8.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "16" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "36", "teamSlug": "colorado-state-rams", "stats": { "receptions": "17", "receivingYards": "242", "yardsPerReception": "14.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "74" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "14", "rushingYards": "75", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "21" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "36", "teamSlug": "colorado-state-rams", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "3", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "3" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "0.0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "36", "teamSlug": "colorado-state-rams", "stats": { "completions": "1", "passingAttempts": "2", "completionPct": "50.0", "passingYards": "28", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "14.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "1", "longPassing": "28", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "67.6" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Jackson Harper", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-5077803.json", "name": "Jackson Harper", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5077803/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.857695+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "receptions": "1", "receivingYards": "5", "yardsPerReception": "5.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "5" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "teamSlug": "uconn-huskies", "stats": { "receptions": "8", "receivingYards": "51", "yardsPerReception": "6.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "19" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "36", "teamSlug": "colorado-state-rams", "stats": { "receptions": "16", "receivingYards": "177", "yardsPerReception": "11.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "49" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Lavon Brown", "separate_league_season_team_records": [], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." } ], "source_urls": [ "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/6_26_Colorado_State_TXST_Game_Notes.pdf?timestamp=20261013095042", "https://www.aol.com/articles/hauss-hejny-injury-csu-qb-172352000.html", "https://csurams.com/sports/football/roster/rj-vick/14925", "https://csurams.com/sports/football/roster/jaivyn-moore/15073", "https://godeacs.com/sports/football/roster/reginald-vick-jr-/8698", "https://csurams.com/news/2026/9/9/football-csus-wide-receiver-room-growing-in-unison", "https://www.goreivers.com/sports/fball/2024-25/bios/moore_jaivyn_5gi1", "https://www.goreivers.com/sports/fball/2025-26/bios/moore_jaivyn_5xhn", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5446698/stats" ], "incremental_effect": "Unestimated incremental statistical effect. Preserve the registered baseline, which already includes some affected games. The human deduction is an additional labeled assumption, not a measured loss or a three-point cap.", "state": "Coach-reported probablydoubtful Oct12; finalofficialstatus unresolved", "position": "WR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Jaivyn Moore", "replacement_pool": [ "Jaivyn Moore", "Terrence Smith Jr.", "Jackson Harper", "Lavon Brown" ], "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Vick leads the current receivers with 24 catches for 367 yards and four touchdowns in five games. His 2024 Virginia Union Division II season produced 48 catches for 1,164 yards; official bios disagree on touchdowns (10 versus 12), so that field remains disputed. Wake Forest verifies four appearances and 14 snaps in 2025. Moore has three current catches for 16 yards. His official Iowa Western seasons are now retained separately: 2024 nine games, 21 catches, 302 yards, three touchdowns; 2025 thirteen games, 30 catches, 629 yards, twelve touchdowns. No college-level conversion or exact future target allocation is invented.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "adjusted": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ] }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "adjusted": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ] }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "adjusted": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "adjusted": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] } }, "historical_comparison_supplement": { "player": "Jaivyn Moore", "role": "Listed backup to RJ Vick on official previous-game starters chart", "seasons": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Iowa Western", "level": "NJCAA", "games": 9, "starts": null, "receptions": 21, "receiving_yards": 302, "receiving_touchdowns": 3, "targets": null }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Iowa Western", "level": "NJCAA", "games": 13, "starts": null, "receptions": 30, "receiving_yards": 629, "receiving_touchdowns": 12, "targets": null }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Colorado State", "level": "FBS", "games": null, "starts": null, "receptions": 3, "receiving_yards": 16, "receiving_touchdowns": 0, "targets": null } ], "sources": [ "https://www.goreivers.com/sports/fball/2024-25/bios/moore_jaivyn_5gi1", "https://www.goreivers.com/sports/fball/2025-26/bios/moore_jaivyn_5xhn", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5446698/stats" ], "uncertainty": "Starts, targets and routes are not published in these retained source tables; no invented zero. NJCAA production is not converted to FBS efficiency." }, "scenario_id": "401860923-away-rj-vick", "human_deduction": -3 } ], "joint_scenario": { "branches": [ { "included_players": [], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "name": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "RJ Vick" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "name": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Hauss Hejny" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "name": "Hauss Hejny \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Hauss Hejny", "RJ Vick" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "name": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Hauss Hejny", "RJ Vick" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "distinct workload adverse endpoint", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 22.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 18.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "name": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint" } ], "production_deduction": 0 }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "The official notes label the chart PREVIOUS GAME STARTERS. Hejny and Vick require conditional review because a current official final availability report was not obtained. Reported questionable/doubtful status is not converted to OUT.", "status": "REVIEWED WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL LIMITATIONS" }, { "team": "Texas State Bobcats", "side": "home", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Brad Jackson", "Gavin Parkhurst", "Shaker Reisig" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/2026_Game_Notes_-_Colorado_State_-_1.pdf?timestamp=20261013095237" }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Torrence Burgess Jr.", "Jaylen Jenkins", "Taji Atkins", "Davian Jackson", "Juntavious Harris" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/2026_Game_Notes_-_Colorado_State_-_1.pdf?timestamp=20261013095237" }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Beau Sparks", "Zechariah Sample", "Tucker Cusano", "Chris Dawn Jr.", "Kylen Evans" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/2026_Game_Notes_-_Colorado_State_-_1.pdf?timestamp=20261013095237" }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Blake Smith", "Ty Stamey", "Jake Simpson" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed. Specific confirmed and conditional statuses are retained below. A blank vendor injury feed is not proof of health.", "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/2026_Game_Notes_-_Colorado_State_-_1.pdf?timestamp=20261013095237" } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Brad Jackson", "Gavin Parkhurst", "Shaker Reisig" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/2026_Game_Notes_-_Colorado_State_-_1.pdf?timestamp=20261013095237" }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Torrence Burgess Jr.", "Jaylen Jenkins", "Taji Atkins", "Davian Jackson", "Juntavious Harris" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/2026_Game_Notes_-_Colorado_State_-_1.pdf?timestamp=20261013095237" }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Beau Sparks", "Zechariah Sample", "Tucker Cusano", "Chris Dawn Jr.", "Kylen Evans" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/2026_Game_Notes_-_Colorado_State_-_1.pdf?timestamp=20261013095237" }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Blake Smith", "Ty Stamey", "Jake Simpson" ], "availability": "Official current notes reviewed; current availability distinctions in scenarios/remainder. No absence inferred from blank vendor injury feed.", "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/2026_Game_Notes_-_Colorado_State_-_1.pdf?timestamp=20261013095237" } ], "reference_lineup": "Brad Jackson, the full running-back committee, the main receivers and the Smith/Stamey/Simpson receiving tight ends were reviewed against the current official chart. No qualifying absence was verified.", "isolated_scenarios": [], "joint_scenario": { "branches": [ { "included_players": [], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "name": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" } ], "production_deduction": 0 }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Brad Jackson, the full running-back committee, the main receivers and the Smith/Stamey/Simpson receiving tight ends were reviewed against the current official chart. No qualifying absence was verified.", "status": "REVIEWED WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL LIMITATIONS" } ], "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved", "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "defense_protection_inventory": { "sources": [ "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/6_26_Colorado_State_TXST_Game_Notes.pdf?timestamp=20261013095042", "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/csurams.com/documents/2026/10/13/2026_Game_Notes_-_Colorado_State_-_1.pdf?timestamp=20261013095237" ], "separate_offense_pathway": "Review covered-role workload changes separately. Incremental statistical score effects remain unestimated; no coefficient was invented.", "separate_defense_pathway": "Review coverage, pressure, turnovers, possession and field-position mechanisms separately. No defensible incremental point conversion is available; unchanged opponent points do not mean the true effect is zero." }, "release_gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until applicable high risks are resolved and all existing gates pass." }, "football_supplement": { "event_id": "401860923", "identity": { "id": "401860923", "date": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3644", "fullName": "UFCU Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "San Marcos", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "36", "away_name": "Colorado State Rams", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "326", "home_name": "Texas State Bobcats", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "home_margin": 7.0, "total": 64.36363636363636, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market, adverse, stress and model gates. Unresolved HIGH risks require PASS.", "production_assumption": "Conditional college scenarios retained separately; unresolved status is not converted to OUT.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 22.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "home_selection": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 58.36363636363636, "under_selection_total": 64.36363636363636 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "These endpoints cover labeled human availability sensitivities only. Unestimated defense, protection and tempo effects are not numerically bounded; use the high-risk PASS gate where applicable." }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "home_margin": 16.16329794134115, "total": 64.41816504373111, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market, adverse, stress and model gates. Unresolved HIGH risks require PASS.", "production_assumption": "Conditional college scenarios retained separately; unresolved status is not converted to OUT.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 18.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "home_selection": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 58.41816504373111, "under_selection_total": 64.41816504373111 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "These endpoints cover labeled human availability sensitivities only. Unestimated defense, protection and tempo effects are not numerically bounded; use the high-risk PASS gate where applicable." }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "home_margin": 10.785, "total": 66.5, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market, adverse, stress and model gates. Unresolved HIGH risks require PASS.", "production_assumption": "Conditional college scenarios retained separately; unresolved status is not converted to OUT.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "home_selection": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 60.5, "under_selection_total": 66.5 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "These endpoints cover labeled human availability sensitivities only. Unestimated defense, protection and tempo effects are not numerically bounded; use the high-risk PASS gate where applicable." }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "home_margin": 10.785, "total": 66.5, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market, adverse, stress and model gates. Unresolved HIGH risks require PASS.", "production_assumption": "Conditional college scenarios retained separately; unresolved status is not converted to OUT.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "home_selection": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 60.5, "under_selection_total": 66.5 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "These endpoints cover labeled human availability sensitivities only. Unestimated defense, protection and tempo effects are not numerically bounded; use the high-risk PASS gate where applicable." } }, "production_scenario": "CONDITIONAL AVAILABILITY; BASE RETAINED", "scenario_choice_by_team": { "away": { "branches": [ { "included_players": [], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "name": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "RJ Vick" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "name": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Hauss Hejny" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "name": "Hauss Hejny \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Hauss Hejny", "RJ Vick" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 25.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 21.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "name": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Hauss Hejny", "RJ Vick" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "distinct workload adverse endpoint", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 22.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 18.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "name": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint" } ], "production_deduction": 0 }, "home": { "branches": [ { "included_players": [], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "name": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" } ], "production_deduction": 0 } }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved", "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "Colorado State quarterback Hauss Hejny and leading receiver RJ Vick have unresolved current availability. Keep separate conditional minus-three scenarios and joint overlap/adverse endpoints. Texas State has no verified qualifying absence.", "Gideon Marsh": "Registered baselines are unchanged. Isolated minus-three scenarios and joint overlap are explicit; Conservative ON/OFF use identical scoring arithmetic. Unestimated defensive pathways retain the relevant risk gate." }, "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json" }, "offensive_review": [], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats", "market": { "id": "401860923", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860923", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.446046+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "home_line": -14.5, "away_line": 14.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 70.5, "under_line": 70.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -600.0, "away_ml": 440.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -14.5, "average_total": 70.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 7.0, "combined": 64.36363636363636, "spread_buffer": -7.5, "total_difference": -6.13636363636364 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 7.0, "combined": 64.36363636363636, "spread_buffer": -7.5, "total_difference": -6.13636363636364 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 16.16329794134115, "combined": 64.41816504373111, "spread_buffer": 1.663297941341149, "total_difference": -6.081834956268892 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 16.16329794134115, "combined": 64.41816504373111, "spread_buffer": 1.663297941341149, "total_difference": -6.081834956268892 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 10.785, "combined": 66.5, "spread_buffer": -3.715, "total_difference": -4.0 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 10.785, "combined": 66.5, "spread_buffer": -3.715, "total_difference": -4.0 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401860923", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860923", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.446046+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "selection_side": "away", "line": 14.5, "home_line": -14.5, "pick": "Colorado State Rams +14.5", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 3.715, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": -2.285, "worst_applicable_buffer": -2.285, "worst_stressed_buffer": -5.285, "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 3.715, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.715, "adverse_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.7149999999999999 }, { "branch": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 0.7149999999999999, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.7149999999999999, "adverse_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.285 }, { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": -2.285, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285, "adverse_score": [ 21.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.285 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved", "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -5.285, "worst_case": { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": -2.285, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285, "adverse_score": [ 21.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.285 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 3.715, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.715, "adverse_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.7149999999999999 }, { "branch": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 0.7149999999999999, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.7149999999999999, "adverse_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.285 }, { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": -2.285, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285, "adverse_score": [ 21.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.285 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "buffer": 7.5, "stressed_buffer": 4.5, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "buffer": -1.663297941341149, "stressed_buffer": -4.663297941341149, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "home_selection": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 60.5, "under_selection_total": 66.5 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, "total": { "event_id": "401860923", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "matchup": "Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860923", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.446046+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "selection_side": "under", "line": 70.5, "home_line": -14.5, "pick": "Under 70.5", "price": -110.0, "canonical_buffer": 4.0, "required_buffer": 5, "minimum_branch_buffer": 4.0, "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.0, "worst_stressed_buffer": 1.0, "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 4.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0, "adverse_score": [ 30.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.0 }, { "branch": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 7.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.0, "adverse_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.0 }, { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 10.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.0, "adverse_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.0 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved", "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 1.0, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 4.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0, "adverse_score": [ 30.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.0 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 4.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0, "adverse_score": [ 30.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.0 }, { "branch": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 7.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.0, "adverse_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.0 }, { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 10.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.0, "adverse_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.0 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "buffer": 6.13636363636364, "stressed_buffer": 3.1363636363636402, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "buffer": 6.081834956268892, "stressed_buffer": 3.0818349562688923, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "home_selection": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 60.5, "under_selection_total": 66.5 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 10.785, "combined": 66.5, "spread_buffer": -3.715, "total_difference": -4.0 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 10.785, "combined": 66.5, "spread_buffer": -3.715, "total_difference": -4.0 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401860923", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860923", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.446046+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "selection_side": "away", "line": 14.5, "home_line": -14.5, "pick": "Colorado State Rams +14.5", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 3.715, "required_buffer": 3, "minimum_branch_buffer": -2.285, "worst_applicable_buffer": -2.285, "worst_stressed_buffer": -5.285, "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 3.715, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.715, "adverse_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.7149999999999999 }, { "branch": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 0.7149999999999999, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.7149999999999999, "adverse_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.285 }, { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": -2.285, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285, "adverse_score": [ 21.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.285 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved", "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -5.285, "worst_case": { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": -2.285, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285, "adverse_score": [ 21.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.285 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 3.715, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.715, "adverse_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.7149999999999999 }, { "branch": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 0.7149999999999999, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.7149999999999999, "adverse_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.285 }, { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": -2.285, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.285, "adverse_score": [ 21.857499999999998, 41.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.285 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "buffer": 7.5, "stressed_buffer": 4.5, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "buffer": -1.663297941341149, "stressed_buffer": -4.663297941341149, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "home_selection": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 60.5, "under_selection_total": 66.5 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, "total": { "event_id": "401860923", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "matchup": "Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860923", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.446046+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "selection_side": "under", "line": 70.5, "home_line": -14.5, "pick": "Under 70.5", "price": -110.0, "canonical_buffer": 4.0, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": 4.0, "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.0, "worst_stressed_buffer": 1.0, "base_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 4.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0, "adverse_score": [ 30.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.0 }, { "branch": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 7.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.0, "adverse_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.0 }, { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 10.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.0, "adverse_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.0 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved", "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 1.0, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 4.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0, "adverse_score": [ 30.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.0 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 4.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.0, "adverse_score": [ 30.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.0 }, { "branch": "RJ Vick \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 7.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.0, "adverse_score": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.0 }, { "branch": "Hauss Hejny, RJ Vick \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "buffer": 10.0, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.0, "adverse_score": [ 24.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.0 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 28.68181818181818, 35.68181818181818 ], "buffer": 6.13636363636364, "stressed_buffer": 3.1363636363636402, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 24.127433551194976, 40.290731492536125 ], "buffer": 6.081834956268892, "stressed_buffer": 3.0818349562688923, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 21.857499999999998, 38.6425 ], "home_selection": [ 27.857499999999998, 38.6425 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 60.5, "under_selection_total": 66.5 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892512", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892512", "date": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1847", "fullName": "United Center", "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "away": "28", "away_name": "Winnipeg Jets", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "4", "home_name": "Chicago Blackhawks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1087763185324158, 2.923309707456049 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1087763185324158, 2.923309707456049 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1087763185324158, 2.923309707456049 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 2.817073170731707, 3.1707317073170733 ], "current_rates": [ 3.0, 2.8333333333333335 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 7, "current_weight": 0.25925925925925924, "prior_rates": [ 2.597560975609756, 3.3536585365853657 ], "current_rates": [ 2.4285714285714284, 4.142857142857143 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0408536585365855, "mean_margin_error": 1.1651031894934332, "mean_total_error": 1.8578799249530955, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0426799999999998, 5.04268 ], "home": [ 0.8414600000000001, 4.84146 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1832196884519077, 2.757309660568601 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1832196884519077, 2.757309660568601 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1832196884519077, 2.757309660568601 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2853, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-15T00:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "52c34c3445f9a414a983487152c4386aef5a0f4df759d280912f7f17468318de" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0580661730553012, "mean_margin_error": 1.1735321999404547, "mean_total_error": 1.9050370803767076, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0426799999999998, 5.04268 ], "home": [ 0.8414600000000001, 4.84146 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.04268, 2.84146 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.04268, 2.84146 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.04268, 2.84146 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 52, "official_team_name": "Winnipeg Jets" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.29268, "official_team_id": 16, "official_team_name": "Chicago Blackhawks" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0426799999999998, 5.04268 ], "home": [ 0.8414600000000001, 4.84146 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.04268, 2.84146 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.04268, 2.84146 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.04268, 2.84146 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 52, "official_team_name": "Winnipeg Jets" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.29268, "official_team_id": 16, "official_team_name": "Chicago Blackhawks" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0426799999999998, 5.04268 ], "home": [ 0.8414600000000001, 4.84146 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "WPG: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. CHI: Bedard returned October 13, actual return role retained; Mangiapane remains absent.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "United Center; listed 2026-10-16T00:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892512", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Winnipeg Jets", "home": "Chicago Blackhawks", "start_et": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1847", "fullName": "United Center", "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 8:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Winnipeg Jets", "previous_game": { "id": "401892497", "date": "2026-10-14T00:15Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1397", "fullName": "Canada Life Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Winnipeg", "state": "MB", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "30", "away_name": "Minnesota Wild", "away_score": 2.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Winnipeg Jets", "home_score": 5.0, "day": 20740.010416666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Chicago Blackhawks", "previous_game": { "id": "401892496", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1847", "fullName": "United Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "16", "away_name": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "away_score": 3.0, "home": "4", "home_name": "Chicago Blackhawks", "home_score": 5.0, "day": 20740.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020114, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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"evTimeOnIcePerGame": 982.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020099, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Vilardi", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MIN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480014, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 151, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 151.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 15, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Gabriel Vilardi", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 1133, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1133.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 75.53333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 784, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 784.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020099, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Ros\u00e9n", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MIN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482765, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Isak Ros\u00e9n", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 784, "timeOnIcePerGame": 784.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.11764 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 628, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 628.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020099, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Koepke", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MIN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481043, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 72, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 72.0, "shifts": 15, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Cole Koepke", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 700, "timeOnIcePerGame": 700.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.66666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 754, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 754.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020099, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Barron", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MIN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480289, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 88, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 88.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Morgan Barron", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 842, "timeOnIcePerGame": 842.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.77777 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 804, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 804.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020099, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Fleury", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MIN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477938, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 55, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 55.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Haydn Fleury", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 859, "timeOnIcePerGame": 859.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.72222 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8482459, "player": "Tyrel Bauer", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 663, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476480, "player": "Vladislav Namestnikov", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 791, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 17 }, { "player_id": 8486025, "player": "Viggo Bj\u00f6rck", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 814, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 44 }, { "player_id": 8482149, "player": "Cole Perfetti", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 822, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475799, "player": "Nino Niederreiter", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476392, "player": "Adam Lowry", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 833, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8480113, "player": "Alex Iafallo", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 78 }, { "player_id": 8476331, "player": "Dylan DeMelo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1200, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 159 }, { "player_id": 8476460, "player": "Mark Scheifele", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480049, "player": "Dylan Samberg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1311, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 135 }, { "player_id": 8479983, "player": "Mario Ferraro", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1191, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 109 }, { "player_id": 8480145, "player": "Neal Pionk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1253, "PP_seconds": 96, "SH_seconds": 81 }, { "player_id": 8478398, "player": "Kyle Connor", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8480014, "player": "Gabriel Vilardi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 982, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482765, "player": "Isak Ros\u00e9n", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481043, "player": "Cole Koepke", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 628, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 72 }, { "player_id": 8480289, "player": "Morgan Barron", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 754, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 88 }, { "player_id": 8477938, "player": "Haydn Fleury", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 804, "PP_seconds": 55, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 16056, "PP_seconds": 755, "SH_seconds": 960 }, "conditional_branches": [], "return_branches": "Any return depends on current official clearance; prior actual role samples retained, future minutes unestimated.", "PP_units": "Unknown final units; official actual strength exposure retained, no roster-order inference", "line_combinations": "Latest actual official skaters and retained prior previews; October15 final lines not announced.", "OT_note": "Observed workload includes any OT; not a forecast of penalties or OT." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8476480, "name": { "default": "V. Namestnikov", "cs": "V. Nam\u011bstnikov" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:28", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8480113, "name": { "default": "A. Iafallo" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:13", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8480014, "name": { "default": "G. Vilardi" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:53", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8476392, "name": { "default": "A. Lowry" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:03", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8482765, "name": { "default": "I. Rosen" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:04", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8480289, "name": { "default": "M. Barron" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:02", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8481043, "name": { "default": "C. Koepke" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:40", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8476460, "name": { "default": "M. Scheifele" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 2, "points": 3, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:19", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8486025, "name": { "default": "V. Bj\u00f6rck" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:18", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8475799, "name": { "default": "N. Niederreiter" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:55", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8478398, "name": { "default": "K. Connor" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:26", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8482149, "name": { "default": "C. Perfetti" }, "position": "C", "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "points": 2, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "16:13", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8476331, "name": { "default": "D. DeMelo", "cs": "D. Demelo", "de": "D. Demelo", "fi": "D. Demelo", "sk": "D. Demelo", "sv": "D. Demelo" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:39", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8480145, "name": { "default": "N. Pionk", "cs": "N.Pionk", "de": "N.Pionk", "fi": "N.Pionk", "sk": "N.Pionk", "sv": "N.Pionk" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:50", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8477938, "name": { "default": "H. Fleury" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:19", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8479983, "name": { "default": "M. Ferraro" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:40", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8480049, "name": { "default": "D. Samberg" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "24:06", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8482459, "name": { "default": "T. Bauer" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:03", "shifts": 16 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.1087763185324158, 2.923309707456049 ], "Primary": [ 3.1832196884519077, 2.757309660568601 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.04268, 2.84146 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.04268, 2.84146 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477504/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483672/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482652/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483510/landing" ], "findings": "Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8480289, "player": "Morgan Barron", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8486025, "player": "Viggo Bj\u00f6rck", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8478398, "player": "Kyle Connor", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8480113, "player": "Alex Iafallo", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8481043, "player": "Cole Koepke", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8483471, "player": "Brad Lambert", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8476392, "player": "Adam Lowry", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8476480, "player": "Vladislav Namestnikov", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8475799, "player": "Nino Niederreiter", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8482149, "player": "Cole Perfetti", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8482765, "player": "Isak Rosen", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8476460, "player": "Mark Scheifele", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8480014, "player": "Gabriel Vilardi", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8482459, "player": "Tyrel Bauer", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8476331, "player": "Dylan DeMelo", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8479983, "player": "Mario Ferraro", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8477938, "player": "Haydn Fleury", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8477504, "player": "Josh Morrissey", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8480145, "player": "Neal Pionk", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8480049, "player": "Dylan Samberg", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8481030, "player": "Jack St. Ivany", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8476945, "player": "Connor Hellebuyck", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8479973, "player": "Stuart Skinner", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8483532, "player": "Clay Stevenson", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Winnipeg Jets", "abbreviation": "WPG", "player": "Garrett Brown", "player_id": "5104207", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:55Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/28/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.308344+00:00" }, { "team": "Winnipeg Jets", "abbreviation": "WPG", "player": "Walker Duehr", "player_id": "4319940", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:54Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/28/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.308344+00:00" }, { "team": "Winnipeg Jets", "abbreviation": "WPG", "player": "Josh Morrissey", "player_id": "3042016", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/28/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.308344+00:00" }, { "team": "Winnipeg Jets", "abbreviation": "WPG", "player": "Elias Salomonsson", "player_id": "5080223", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:54Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/28/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.308344+00:00" }, { "team": "Winnipeg Jets", "abbreviation": "WPG", "player": "Connor Hellebuyck", "player_id": "3020225", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-02T20:25Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/28/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.308344+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8483672, "incumbent": "Garrett Brown", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:55Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482459, "player": "Tyrel Bauer", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 663, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476480, "player": "Vladislav Namestnikov", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 791, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 17 }, { "player_id": 8486025, "player": "Viggo Bj\u00f6rck", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 814, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 44 }, { "player_id": 8482149, "player": "Cole Perfetti", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 822, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475799, "player": "Nino Niederreiter", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476392, "player": "Adam Lowry", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 833, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8480113, "player": "Alex Iafallo", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 78 }, { "player_id": 8476331, "player": "Dylan DeMelo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1200, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 159 }, { "player_id": 8476460, "player": "Mark Scheifele", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480049, "player": "Dylan Samberg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1311, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 135 }, { "player_id": 8479983, "player": "Mario Ferraro", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1191, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 109 }, { "player_id": 8480145, "player": "Neal Pionk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1253, "PP_seconds": 96, "SH_seconds": 81 }, { "player_id": 8478398, "player": "Kyle Connor", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8480014, "player": "Gabriel Vilardi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 982, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482765, "player": "Isak Ros\u00e9n", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481043, "player": "Cole Koepke", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 628, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 72 }, { "player_id": 8480289, "player": "Morgan Barron", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 754, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 88 }, { "player_id": 8477938, "player": "Haydn Fleury", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 804, "PP_seconds": 55, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8483672, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483672/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 6, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 42, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NCAA", "pim": 33, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 8, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Univ. of Denver" } }, { "assists": 12, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 34, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NCAA", "pim": 12, "plusMinus": 12, "points": 14, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Univ. of Denver" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Manitoba Moose" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" }, { "incumbent_id": 8482652, "incumbent": "Walker Duehr", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:54Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482459, "player": "Tyrel Bauer", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 663, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476480, "player": "Vladislav Namestnikov", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 791, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 17 }, { "player_id": 8486025, "player": "Viggo Bj\u00f6rck", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 814, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 44 }, { "player_id": 8482149, "player": "Cole Perfetti", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 822, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475799, "player": "Nino Niederreiter", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476392, "player": "Adam Lowry", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 833, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8480113, "player": "Alex Iafallo", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 78 }, { "player_id": 8476331, "player": "Dylan DeMelo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1200, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 159 }, { "player_id": 8476460, "player": "Mark Scheifele", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480049, "player": "Dylan Samberg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1311, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 135 }, { "player_id": 8479983, "player": "Mario Ferraro", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1191, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 109 }, { "player_id": 8480145, "player": "Neal Pionk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1253, "PP_seconds": 96, "SH_seconds": 81 }, { "player_id": 8478398, "player": "Kyle Connor", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8480014, "player": "Gabriel Vilardi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 982, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482765, "player": "Isak Ros\u00e9n", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481043, "player": "Cole Koepke", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 628, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 72 }, { "player_id": 8480289, "player": "Morgan Barron", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 754, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 88 }, { "player_id": 8477938, "player": "Haydn Fleury", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 804, "PP_seconds": 55, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8482652, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482652/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "8:48", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.125, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 16, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 9, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flames" }, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Flames", "fr": "Flames de Calgary" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Calgary", "fr": "de Calgary" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "8:49", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.333333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 6, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sharks" }, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Sharks", "fr": "Sharks de San Jose" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "San Jose", "fr": "de San Jose" } }, { "assists": 8, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 20, "goals": 11, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 8, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 19, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Wranglers" } }, { "assists": 4, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 16, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 9, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Barracuda" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Barracuda" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "9:30", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Jets" }, "teamName": { "default": "Winnipeg Jets", "fr": "Jets de Winnipeg" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Winnipeg", "fr": "de Winnipeg" } }, { "assists": 17, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 62, "goals": 17, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 18, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 34, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Manitoba Moose" } }, { "assists": 2, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 7, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 3, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Manitoba Moose" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" }, { "incumbent_id": 8477504, "incumbent": "Josh Morrissey", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482459, "player": "Tyrel Bauer", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 663, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476480, "player": "Vladislav Namestnikov", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 791, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 17 }, { "player_id": 8486025, "player": "Viggo Bj\u00f6rck", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 814, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 44 }, { "player_id": 8482149, "player": "Cole Perfetti", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 822, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475799, "player": "Nino Niederreiter", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476392, "player": "Adam Lowry", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 833, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8480113, "player": "Alex Iafallo", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 78 }, { "player_id": 8476331, "player": "Dylan DeMelo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1200, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 159 }, { "player_id": 8476460, "player": "Mark Scheifele", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480049, "player": "Dylan Samberg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1311, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 135 }, { "player_id": 8479983, "player": "Mario Ferraro", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1191, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 109 }, { "player_id": 8480145, "player": "Neal Pionk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1253, "PP_seconds": 96, "SH_seconds": 81 }, { "player_id": 8478398, "player": "Kyle Connor", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8480014, "player": "Gabriel Vilardi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 982, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482765, "player": "Isak Ros\u00e9n", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481043, "player": "Cole Koepke", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 628, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 72 }, { "player_id": 8480289, "player": "Morgan Barron", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 754, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 88 }, { "player_id": 8477938, "player": "Haydn Fleury", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 804, "PP_seconds": 55, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8477504, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477504/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 48, "avgToi": "24:23", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 80, "goals": 14, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": 17, "points": 62, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 22, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.081395, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 172, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Jets" }, "teamName": { "default": "Winnipeg Jets", "fr": "Jets de Winnipeg" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Winnipeg", "fr": "de Winnipeg" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "21:32", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "4 Nations", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 44, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 3, "teamName": { "default": "Canada" } }, { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "21:08", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 12, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 6, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 19, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Jets" }, "teamName": { "default": "Winnipeg Jets", "fr": "Jets de Winnipeg" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Winnipeg", "fr": "de Winnipeg" } }, { "assists": 41, "avgToi": "24:43", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 77, "goals": 14, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 30, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 55, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 16, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.09589, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 146, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Jets" }, "teamName": { "default": "Winnipeg Jets", "fr": "Jets de Winnipeg" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Winnipeg", "fr": "de Winnipeg" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "7:10", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canada", "cs": "Kanada", "de": "Kanada", "es": "Canad\u00e1", "fi": "Kanada", "sk": "Kanada", "sv": "Kanada" }, "teamName": { "default": "Canada", "cs": "Kanada", "de": "Kanada", "es": "Canad\u00e1", "fi": "Kanada", "sk": "Kanada", "sv": "Kanada" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "20:04", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 12, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Jets" }, "teamName": { "default": "Winnipeg Jets", "fr": "Jets de Winnipeg" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Winnipeg", "fr": "de Winnipeg" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8483510, "incumbent": "Elias Salomonsson", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:54Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482459, "player": "Tyrel Bauer", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 663, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476480, "player": "Vladislav Namestnikov", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 791, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 17 }, { "player_id": 8486025, "player": "Viggo Bj\u00f6rck", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 814, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 44 }, { "player_id": 8482149, "player": "Cole Perfetti", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 822, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475799, "player": "Nino Niederreiter", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476392, "player": "Adam Lowry", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 833, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8480113, "player": "Alex Iafallo", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 78 }, { "player_id": 8476331, "player": "Dylan DeMelo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1200, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 159 }, { "player_id": 8476460, "player": "Mark Scheifele", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480049, "player": "Dylan Samberg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1311, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 135 }, { "player_id": 8479983, "player": "Mario Ferraro", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1191, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 109 }, { "player_id": 8480145, "player": "Neal Pionk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1253, "PP_seconds": 96, "SH_seconds": 81 }, { "player_id": 8478398, "player": "Kyle Connor", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8480014, "player": "Gabriel Vilardi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 982, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482765, "player": "Isak Ros\u00e9n", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481043, "player": "Cole Koepke", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 628, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 72 }, { "player_id": 8480289, "player": "Morgan Barron", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 754, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 88 }, { "player_id": 8477938, "player": "Haydn Fleury", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 804, "PP_seconds": 55, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": 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"source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 80, "points": 62, "skaterFullName": "Josh Morrissey", "goals": 14, "evGoals": 11, "ppGoals": 3, "teamAbbrevs": "WPG", "shots": 172, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 48, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 22, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.08139, "evPoints": 40, "playerId": 8477504, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1463.475, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 39, "points": 7, "skaterFullName": "Haydn 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"otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482765, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 416, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 69.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 93, "shiftsPerGame": 15.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Isak Ros\u00e9n", "teamAbbrevs": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 4444, "timeOnIcePerGame": 740.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.78494 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3180, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 636.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Lambert", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483471, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 74, "shiftsPerGame": 14.8, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Brad Lambert", "teamAbbrevs": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 3180, "timeOnIcePerGame": 636.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.97297 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4604, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 767.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Bj\u00f6rck", "otTimeOnIce": 44, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 44.0, "playerId": 8486025, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 390, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 65.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 290, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 48.33333, "shifts": 104, "shiftsPerGame": 17.33333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Viggo Bj\u00f6rck", "teamAbbrevs": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 5284, "timeOnIcePerGame": 880.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.80769 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892512", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.1087763185324158, 2.923309707456049 ], "Primary": [ 3.1832196884519077, 2.757309660568601 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.04268, 2.84146 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.04268, 2.84146 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020114, "team": "CHI", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 1020, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1020.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020098, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Vlasic", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481568, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 7, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.0, "shTimeOnIce": 283, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 283.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alex Vlasic", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 1310, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1310.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 59.54545 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 779, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 779.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", 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{ "evTimeOnIce": 592, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 592.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020098, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Smith", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482062, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 164, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 164.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Cole Smith", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 756, "timeOnIcePerGame": 756.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.0 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8481568, "player": "Alex Vlasic", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1020, "PP_seconds": 7, "SH_seconds": 283 }, { "player_id": 8476882, "player": "Teuvo Teravainen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 779, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 224 }, { "player_id": 8474013, "player": "Ian Cole", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 935, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 195 }, { "player_id": 8485391, "player": "Anton Frondell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 845, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 198 }, { "player_id": 8484197, "player": "Oliver Moore", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 572, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477479, "player": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 178, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474141, "player": "Patrick Kane", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1032, "PP_seconds": 172, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478413, "player": "Jordan Greenway", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 593, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 221 }, { "player_id": 8481524, "player": "Bowen Byram", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1289, "PP_seconds": 176, "SH_seconds": 12 }, { "player_id": 8477987, "player": "Ryan Donato", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 524, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483506, "player": "Sam Rinzel", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 889, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8476952, "player": "Dominic Toninato", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 505, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482176, "player": "Wyatt Kaiser", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 710, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 274 }, { "player_id": 8483450, "player": "Ryan Greene", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 505, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8484783, "player": "Artyom Levshunov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1097, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 196 }, { "player_id": 8484390, "player": "Roman Kantserov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 946, "PP_seconds": 177, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8484144, "player": "Connor Bedard", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1084, "PP_seconds": 175, "SH_seconds": 7 }, { "player_id": 8482062, "player": "Cole Smith", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 592, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 164 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14705, "PP_seconds": 895, "SH_seconds": 1920 }, "conditional_branches": [], "return_branches": "Any return depends on current official clearance; prior actual role samples retained, future minutes unestimated.", "PP_units": "Unknown final units; official actual strength exposure retained, no roster-order inference", "line_combinations": "Latest actual official skaters and retained prior previews; October15 final lines not announced.", "OT_note": "Observed workload includes any OT; not a forecast of penalties or OT." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8477987, "name": { "default": "R. Donato" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "08:44", "shifts": 12 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8484197, "name": { "default": "O. Moore" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:34", "shifts": 12 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8478413, "name": { "default": "J. Greenway" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:34", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8485391, "name": { "default": "A. Frondell" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:26", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8483450, "name": { "default": "R. Greene" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:39", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8482062, "name": { "default": "C. Smith" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:36", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8476952, "name": { "default": "D. Toninato" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "08:25", "shifts": 11 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8477479, "name": { "default": "T. Bertuzzi" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:06", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8484390, "name": { "default": "R. Kantserov" }, "position": "R", "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "points": 2, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "18:52", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8476882, "name": { "default": "T. Teravainen", "cs": "T. Ter\u00e4v\u00e4inen", "fi": "T. Ter\u00e4v\u00e4inen", "sk": "T. Ter\u00e4v\u00e4inen", "sv": "T. Ter\u00e4v\u00e4inen" }, "position": "C", "goals": 2, "assists": 1, "points": 3, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:44", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8474141, "name": { "default": "P. Kane" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:04", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8484144, "name": { "default": "C. Bedard" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:06", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8483506, "name": { "default": "S. Rinzel" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:52", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8481524, "name": { "default": "B. Byram" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "24:37", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8474013, "name": { "default": "I. Cole" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:54", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8482176, "name": { "default": "W. Kaiser" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:24", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8484783, "name": { "default": "A. Levshunov" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:33", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020098, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "playerId": 8481568, "name": { "default": "A. Vlasic" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:50", "shifts": 22 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.1087763185324158, 2.923309707456049 ], "Primary": [ 3.1832196884519077, 2.757309660568601 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.04268, 2.84146 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.04268, 2.84146 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020098/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478233/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475176/landing" ], "findings": "Bedard returned October 13, actual return role retained; Mangiapane remains absent.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8484144, "player": "Connor Bedard", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8477479, "player": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8477987, "player": "Ryan Donato", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8485391, "player": "Anton Frondell", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8483450, "player": "Ryan Greene", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8478413, "player": "Jordan Greenway", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8474141, "player": "Patrick Kane", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8484390, "player": "Roman Kantserov", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8478233, "player": "Andrew Mangiapane", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8484197, "player": "Oliver Moore", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8483493, "player": "Frank Nazar", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8482062, "player": "Cole Smith", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8476882, "player": "Teuvo Teravainen", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8476952, "player": "Dominic Toninato", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8481524, "player": "Bowen Byram", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8474013, "player": "Ian Cole", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8482807, "player": "Ethan Del Mastro", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8482176, "player": "Wyatt Kaiser", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8483466, "player": "Kevin Korchinski", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8484783, "player": "Artyom Levshunov", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8483506, "player": "Sam Rinzel", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8481568, "player": "Alex Vlasic", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8481519, "player": "Spencer Knight", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8482821, "player": "Arvid Soderblom", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Chicago Blackhawks", "abbreviation": "CHI", "player": "Andrew Mangiapane", "player_id": "3149619", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-07T15:40Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/4/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.705983+00:00" }, { "team": "Chicago Blackhawks", "abbreviation": "CHI", "player": "Ryan Ellis", "player_id": "5169", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-01-08T20:25Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/4/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.705983+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8478233, "incumbent": "Andrew Mangiapane", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-07T15:40Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8481568, "player": "Alex Vlasic", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1020, "PP_seconds": 7, "SH_seconds": 283 }, { "player_id": 8476882, "player": "Teuvo Teravainen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 779, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 224 }, { "player_id": 8474013, "player": "Ian Cole", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 935, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 195 }, { "player_id": 8485391, "player": "Anton Frondell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 845, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 198 }, { "player_id": 8484197, "player": "Oliver Moore", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 572, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477479, "player": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 178, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474141, "player": "Patrick Kane", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1032, "PP_seconds": 172, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478413, "player": "Jordan Greenway", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 593, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 221 }, { "player_id": 8481524, "player": "Bowen Byram", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1289, "PP_seconds": 176, "SH_seconds": 12 }, { "player_id": 8477987, "player": "Ryan Donato", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 524, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483506, "player": "Sam Rinzel", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 889, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8476952, "player": "Dominic Toninato", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 505, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482176, "player": "Wyatt Kaiser", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 710, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 274 }, { "player_id": 8483450, "player": "Ryan Greene", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 505, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8484783, "player": "Artyom Levshunov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1097, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 196 }, { "player_id": 8484390, "player": "Roman Kantserov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 946, "PP_seconds": 177, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8484144, "player": "Connor Bedard", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1084, "PP_seconds": 175, "SH_seconds": 7 }, { "player_id": 8482062, "player": "Cole Smith", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 592, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 164 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8478233, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478233/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 14, "avgToi": "13:02", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.416667, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 81, "goals": 14, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 24, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 28, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.147368, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 95, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Capitals" }, "teamName": { "default": "Washington Capitals", "fr": "Capitals de Washington" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Washington", "fr": "de Washington" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "11:13", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.375, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 14, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.083333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 12, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Capitals" }, "teamName": { "default": "Washington Capitals", "fr": "Capitals de Washington" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Washington", "fr": "de Washington" } }, { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "12:36", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.333333, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 52, "goals": 7, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 36, "plusMinus": -19, "points": 14, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.137255, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 51, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "11:54", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.5, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.142857, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 7, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Bakersfield Condors" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "5:23", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8475176, "incumbent": "Ryan Ellis", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-01-08T20:25Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8481568, "player": "Alex Vlasic", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1020, "PP_seconds": 7, "SH_seconds": 283 }, { "player_id": 8476882, "player": "Teuvo Teravainen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 779, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 224 }, { "player_id": 8474013, "player": "Ian Cole", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 935, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 195 }, { "player_id": 8485391, "player": "Anton Frondell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 845, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 198 }, { "player_id": 8484197, "player": "Oliver Moore", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 572, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477479, "player": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 178, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474141, "player": "Patrick Kane", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1032, "PP_seconds": 172, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478413, "player": "Jordan Greenway", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 593, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 221 }, { "player_id": 8481524, "player": "Bowen Byram", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1289, "PP_seconds": 176, "SH_seconds": 12 }, { "player_id": 8477987, "player": "Ryan Donato", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 524, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483506, "player": "Sam Rinzel", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 889, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8476952, "player": "Dominic Toninato", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 505, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482176, "player": "Wyatt Kaiser", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 710, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 274 }, { "player_id": 8483450, "player": "Ryan Greene", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 505, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8484783, "player": "Artyom Levshunov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1097, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 196 }, { "player_id": 8484390, "player": "Roman Kantserov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 946, "PP_seconds": 177, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8484144, "player": "Connor Bedard", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1084, "PP_seconds": 175, "SH_seconds": 7 }, { "player_id": 8482062, "player": "Cole Smith", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 592, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 164 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8475176, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475176/landing", "season_totals": [] }, "missing_history_status": "No returned two-window professional season, not zero; long-term nonparticipation explicitly preserved" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8474013, 8474141, 8475176, 8476882, 8476952, 8477479, 8477987, 8478233, 8478413, 8481519, 8481524, 8481568, 8482062, 8482176, 8482807, 8482821, 8483450, 8483466, 8483493, 8483506, 8484144, 8484197, 8484390, 8484783, 8485391 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 17, "skaterFullName": "Ian Cole", "goals": 1, "evGoals": 1, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "shots": 66, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 16, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.01515, "evPoints": 16, "playerId": 8474013, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1216.9268, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 72, "points": 59, "skaterFullName": "Patrick Kane", "goals": 21, "evGoals": 9, "ppGoals": 12, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "shots": 175, "otGoals": 2, "assists": 38, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 29, "gameWinningGoals": 6, "shootingPct": 0.12, "evPoints": 30, "playerId": 8474141, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1078.7638, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 58, "skaterFullName": "Teuvo Teravainen", "goals": 15, "evGoals": 8, "ppGoals": 7, "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "shots": 111, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 43, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 24, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.13513, "evPoints": 32, "playerId": 8476882, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 2, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1023.939, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 5, "points": 0, "skaterFullName": "Dominic Toninato", "goals": 0, "evGoals": 0, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "WPG", "shots": 2, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 0, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.0, "evPoints": 0, "playerId": 8476952, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 495.8, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 46, "skaterFullName": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "goals": 23, "evGoals": 13, "ppGoals": 10, "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "shots": 131, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 23, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 20, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.17557, "evPoints": 26, "playerId": 8477479, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 960.1707, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 80, "points": 62, "skaterFullName": "Ryan Donato", "goals": 31, "evGoals": 26, "ppGoals": 5, "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "shots": 182, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 31, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 14, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.17032, "evPoints": 48, "playerId": 8477987, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 978.55, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 81, "points": 28, "skaterFullName": "Andrew Mangiapane", "goals": 14, "evGoals": 13, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "WSH", "shots": 95, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 14, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 4, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.14736, "evPoints": 23, "playerId": 8478233, "shGoals": 1, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 781.5802, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 34, "points": 8, "skaterFullName": "Jordan Greenway", "goals": 3, "evGoals": 3, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "shots": 36, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 5, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.08333, "evPoints": 8, "playerId": 8478413, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 904.4411, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 38, "skaterFullName": "Bowen Byram", "goals": 7, "evGoals": 7, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "shots": 94, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 31, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.07446, "evPoints": 35, "playerId": 8481524, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1361.8292, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 30, "skaterFullName": "Alex Vlasic", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 3, "ppGoals": 1, "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "shots": 103, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 26, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 12, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.03883, "evPoints": 17, "playerId": 8481568, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1395.7682, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 71, "points": 12, "skaterFullName": "Cole Smith", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 4, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "shots": 69, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 8, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.05797, "evPoints": 11, "playerId": 8482062, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 816.3521, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 57, "points": 8, "skaterFullName": "Wyatt Kaiser", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 4, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "shots": 66, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 4, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.0606, "evPoints": 8, "playerId": 8482176, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1087.0175, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=700&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 24, "points": 6, "skaterFullName": "Ethan Del Mastro", "goals": 2, 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0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483466, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 12, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 12.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Kevin Korchinski", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 681, "timeOnIcePerGame": 681.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.05882 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4746, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 949.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Nazar", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483493, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 516, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 103.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 389, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 77.8, "shifts": 123, "shiftsPerGame": 24.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Frank Nazar", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 5651, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1130.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.94308 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5878, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 979.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Rinzel", "otTimeOnIce": 0, 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"otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484197, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 451, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 64.42857, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 115, "shiftsPerGame": 16.42857, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Oliver Moore", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 4899, "timeOnIcePerGame": 699.85714, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.6 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6504, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 929.14285, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Kantserov", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484390, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1219, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 174.14285, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 13, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.85714, "shifts": 142, "shiftsPerGame": 20.28571, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Roman Kantserov", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 7736, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1105.14285, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.47887 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7665, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1095.0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Levshunov", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484783, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 108, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 15.42857, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 690, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 98.57142, "shifts": 156, "shiftsPerGame": 22.28571, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Artyom Levshunov", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 8463, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1209.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.25 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6020, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 860.0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Frondell", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8485391, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 908, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 129.71428, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 655, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 93.57142, "shifts": 155, "shiftsPerGame": 22.14285, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Anton Frondell", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 7583, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1083.28571, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.92258 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892512", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.1087763185324158, 2.923309707456049 ], "Primary": [ 3.1832196884519077, 2.757309660568601 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.04268, 2.84146 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.04268, 2.84146 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks", "market": { "id": "401892512", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892512", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.483066+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.667990+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -230.0, "away_line_price": 190.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 110.0, "under_price": -130.0, "home_ml": 114.0, "away_ml": -135.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.18546661107636675, "combined": 6.032086025988464, "spread_buffer": 1.3145333889236333, "total_difference": -0.46791397401153567 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.18546661107636675, "combined": 6.032086025988464, "spread_buffer": 1.3145333889236333, "total_difference": -0.46791397401153567 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.4259100278833068, "combined": 5.940529349020508, "spread_buffer": 1.0740899721166932, "total_difference": -0.5594706509794918 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.4259100278833068, "combined": 5.940529349020508, "spread_buffer": 1.0740899721166932, "total_difference": -0.5594706509794918 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.20121999999999973, "combined": 5.88414, "spread_buffer": 1.2987800000000003, "total_difference": -0.6158599999999996 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.20121999999999973, "combined": 5.88414, "spread_buffer": 1.2987800000000003, "total_difference": -0.6158599999999996 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.20121999999999973, "combined": 5.88414, "spread_buffer": 1.2987800000000003, "total_difference": -0.6158599999999996 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.20121999999999973, "combined": 5.88414, "spread_buffer": 1.2987800000000003, "total_difference": -0.6158599999999996 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892513", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892513", "date": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1834", "fullName": "Bridgestone Arena", "address": { "city": "Nashville", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "away": "18", "away_name": "San Jose Sharks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "27", "home_name": "Nashville Predators", 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Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.0609756097560976, 3.5609756097560976 ], "current_rates": [ 2.6666666666666665, 3.8333333333333335 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.0121951219512195, 3.2804878048780486 ], "current_rates": [ 2.6666666666666665, 3.1666666666666665 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0408536585365855, "mean_margin_error": 1.1651031894934332, "mean_total_error": 1.8578799249530955, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.1463349999999997, 5.146335 ], "home": [ 1.2438950000000002, 5.243895 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.9833833506390732, 3.4451906188247645 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.9833833506390732, 3.4451906188247645 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.9833833506390732, 3.4451906188247645 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.1463349999999997, 3.243895 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1463349999999997, 3.243895 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1463349999999997, 3.243895 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.03658, "pa": 3.53658, "official_team_id": 28, "official_team_name": "San Jose Sharks" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.95121, "pa": 3.25609, "official_team_id": 18, "official_team_name": "Nashville Predators" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.1463349999999997, 5.146335 ], "home": [ 1.2438950000000002, 5.243895 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.1463349999999997, 3.243895 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1463349999999997, 3.243895 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1463349999999997, 3.243895 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.03658, "pa": 3.53658, "official_team_id": 28, "official_team_name": "San Jose Sharks" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.95121, "pa": 3.25609, "official_team_id": 18, "official_team_name": "Nashville Predators" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.1463349999999997, 5.146335 ], "home": [ 1.2438950000000002, 5.243895 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "SJS: Nurse fresh DTD; conditional defense share. Prior official preview duplicates Chernyshov: actual box identities used, malformed projection not copied. NSH: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Bridgestone Arena; listed 2026-10-16T00:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892513", "sport": "NHL", "away": "San Jose Sharks", "home": "Nashville Predators", "start_et": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1834", "fullName": "Bridgestone Arena", "address": { "city": "Nashville", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 8:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "San Jose Sharks", "previous_game": { "id": "401892503", "date": "2026-10-14T03:15Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1653", "fullName": "SAP Center at San Jose", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "San Jose", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "1", "away_name": "Boston Bruins", "away_score": 6.0, "home": "18", "home_name": "San Jose Sharks", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20740.135416666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Nashville Predators", "previous_game": { "id": "401892499", "date": "2026-10-14T00:45Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1834", "fullName": "Bridgestone Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Nashville", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "37", "away_name": "Vegas Golden Knights", "away_score": 5.0, "home": "27", "home_name": "Nashville Predators", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20740.03125 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. 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"https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=200", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/18/roster", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/27/roster", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/" ], "tu": { "id": "401892513", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892513", "date": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1834", "fullName": "Bridgestone Arena", "indoor": 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No calibrated coverage claim." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=200", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\slate-NHL.json", "sha256": "fc22672b401613adeb88f05428443878ac8145d4cb931433a11abe313afbe257" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\NHL.json", "sha256": "6cda8e5e058ca9d1aaa416adb0c2776154c59b4b70ec193727f794cc93735c32" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Tracking-only policy; explicit sport activation and calibrated buffers/distribution absent.", "resolved": false } ], "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": 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"shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Zack Ostapchuk", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 648, "timeOnIcePerGame": 648.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.28571 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1021, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1021.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Smith", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484227, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 229, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 229.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Will Smith", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 1250, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1250.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 62.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1155, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1155.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Dickinson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484806, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 7, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.0, "shTimeOnIce": 35, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 35.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Sam Dickinson", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 1197, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1197.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.04347 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1021, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1021.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Orlov", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475200, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 151, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 151.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Dmitry Orlov", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 1172, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1172.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.27272 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 582, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 582.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Goodrow", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476624, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 121, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 121.0, "shifts": 12, "shiftsPerGame": 12.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Barclay Goodrow", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 703, "timeOnIcePerGame": 703.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 58.58333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 883, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 883.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Chernyshov", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484994, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 70, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 70.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Igor Chernyshov", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 953, "timeOnIcePerGame": 953.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.31818 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 929, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 929.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Marchment", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478975, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 70, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 70.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mason Marchment", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 999, "timeOnIcePerGame": 999.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 58.7647 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 854, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 854.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Nurse", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477498, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 205, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 205.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Darnell Nurse", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 1059, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1059.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 62.29411 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 739, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 739.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Sherwood", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480748, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 14, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 14.0, "shTimeOnIce": 82, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 82.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Kiefer Sherwood", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 835, "timeOnIcePerGame": 835.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.38888 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 959, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 959.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Celebrini", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484801, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 229, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 229.0, "shTimeOnIce": 3, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Macklin Celebrini", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 1191, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1191.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 62.68421 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 680, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 680.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Misa", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8485402, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 70, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 70.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Michael Misa", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 750, "timeOnIcePerGame": 750.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.11764 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 627, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 627.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Graf", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484911, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 14, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 14.0, "shTimeOnIce": 158, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 158.0, "shifts": 15, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Collin Graf", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 799, "timeOnIcePerGame": 799.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.26666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 935, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 935.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Wennberg", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477505, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 228, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 228.0, "shTimeOnIce": 37, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 37.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alexander Wennberg", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 1200, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1200.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 63.15789 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1102, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1102.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Trouba", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476885, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 14, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 14.0, "shTimeOnIce": 158, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 158.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jacob Trouba", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 1274, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1274.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.08333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 787, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 787.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Cagnoni", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484152, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 154, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 154.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Luca Cagnoni", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 941, "timeOnIcePerGame": 941.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 58.8125 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 781, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 781.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Stenberg", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8486103, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 228, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 228.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ivar Stenberg", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 1009, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1009.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.05555 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 696, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 696.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Toffoli", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475726, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 68, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 68.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Tyler Toffoli", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 764, "timeOnIcePerGame": 764.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.94117 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1073, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1073.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020105, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Kesselring", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BOS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480891, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 82, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 82.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Michael Kesselring", "teamAbbrev": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 1155, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1155.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.125 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8482859, "player": "Zack Ostapchuk", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 555, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 79 }, { "player_id": 8484227, "player": "Will Smith", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 229, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484806, "player": "Sam Dickinson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1155, "PP_seconds": 7, "SH_seconds": 35 }, { "player_id": 8475200, "player": "Dmitry Orlov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476624, "player": "Barclay Goodrow", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 582, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8484994, "player": "Igor Chernyshov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 883, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478975, "player": "Mason Marchment", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 929, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477498, "player": "Darnell Nurse", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 854, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 205 }, { "player_id": 8480748, "player": "Kiefer Sherwood", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 739, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8484801, "player": "Macklin Celebrini", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 959, "PP_seconds": 229, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8485402, "player": "Michael Misa", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 680, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484911, "player": "Collin Graf", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 627, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 158 }, { "player_id": 8477505, "player": "Alexander Wennberg", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 935, "PP_seconds": 228, "SH_seconds": 37 }, { "player_id": 8476885, "player": "Jacob Trouba", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1102, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 158 }, { "player_id": 8484152, "player": "Luca Cagnoni", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 787, "PP_seconds": 154, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486103, "player": "Ivar Stenberg", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 781, "PP_seconds": 228, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475726, "player": "Tyler Toffoli", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 696, "PP_seconds": 68, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480891, "player": "Michael Kesselring", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1073, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 82 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15379, "PP_seconds": 1560, "SH_seconds": 960 }, "conditional_branches": [ { "scenario": "Conditional exclusion Darnell Nurse", "incumbent": { "player_id": 8477498, "player": "Darnell Nurse", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 854, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 205 }, "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8482859, "player": "Zack Ostapchuk", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 555, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 79 }, { "player_id": 8484227, "player": "Will Smith", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 229, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484806, "player": "Sam Dickinson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1346.975476839237, "PP_seconds": 7.0, "SH_seconds": 61.09090909090909 }, { "player_id": 8475200, "player": "Dmitry Orlov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1190.7029972752043, "PP_seconds": 151.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8476624, "player": "Barclay Goodrow", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 582, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8484994, "player": "Igor Chernyshov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 883, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478975, "player": "Mason Marchment", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 929, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480748, "player": "Kiefer Sherwood", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 739, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8484801, "player": "Macklin Celebrini", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 959, "PP_seconds": 229, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8485402, "player": "Michael Misa", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 680, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484911, "player": "Collin Graf", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 627, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 158 }, { "player_id": 8477505, "player": "Alexander Wennberg", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 935, "PP_seconds": 228, "SH_seconds": 37 }, { "player_id": 8476885, "player": "Jacob Trouba", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1285.16621253406, "PP_seconds": 14.0, "SH_seconds": 275.7818181818182 }, { "player_id": 8484152, "player": "Luca Cagnoni", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 917.8092643051771, "PP_seconds": 154.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8486103, "player": "Ivar Stenberg", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 781, "PP_seconds": 228, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475726, "player": "Tyler Toffoli", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 696, "PP_seconds": 68, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480891, "player": "Michael Kesselring", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1251.3460490463215, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 143.12727272727273 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15378.999999999998, "PP_seconds": 1560.0, "SH_seconds": 960.0 }, "calculation": "Transfer observed EV/PP/SH exposure to same-position-group demonstrated teammates in proportion to strength-state share. Shortened-bench sensitivity, unannounced dressing reserve not invented." } ], "return_branches": "Any return depends on current official clearance; prior actual role samples retained, future minutes unestimated.", "PP_units": "Unknown final units; official actual strength exposure retained, no roster-order inference", "line_combinations": "Latest actual official skaters and retained prior previews; October15 final lines not announced.", "OT_note": "Observed workload includes any OT; not a forecast of penalties or OT." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8484227, "name": { "default": "W. Smith" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:50", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8477505, "name": { "default": "A. Wennberg" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:00", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8476624, "name": { "default": "B. Goodrow" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:43", "shifts": 12 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8478975, "name": { "default": "M. Marchment" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:39", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8486103, "name": { "default": "I. Stenberg" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "16:49", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8480748, "name": { "default": "K. Sherwood" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:55", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8484911, "name": { "default": "C. Graf" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:19", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8482859, "name": { "default": "Z. Ostapchuk" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:48", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8484801, "name": { "default": "M. Celebrini" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "19:51", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8475726, "name": { "default": "T. Toffoli" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:44", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8485402, "name": { "default": "M. Misa" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:30", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8484994, "name": { "default": "I. Chernyshov" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:53", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8484806, "name": { "default": "S. Dickinson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:57", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8480891, "name": { "default": "M. Kesselring" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:15", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8475200, "name": { "default": "D. Orlov" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:32", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8477498, "name": { "default": "D. Nurse" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:39", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8484152, "name": { "default": "L. Cagnoni" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:41", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020105, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "playerId": 8476885, "name": { "default": "J. Trouba" }, "position": "D", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:14", "shifts": 24 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.012101313320825, 3.3781425891181986 ], "Primary": [ 2.9833833506390732, 3.4451906188247645 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.1463349999999997, 3.243895 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.1463349999999997, 3.243895 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020105/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478874/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477498/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483481/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8484200/landing" ], "findings": "Nurse fresh DTD; conditional defense share. Prior official preview duplicates Chernyshov: actual box identities used, malformed projection not copied.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8479718, "player": "Alex Barr\u00e9-Boulet", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8484801, "player": "Macklin Celebrini", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8484994, "player": "Igor Chernyshov", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8480848, "player": "Ty Dellandrea", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8478874, "player": "Adam Gaudette", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8476624, "player": "Barclay Goodrow", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8484911, "player": "Collin Graf", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8478975, "player": "Mason Marchment", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8485402, "player": "Michael Misa", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8482859, "player": "Zack Ostapchuk", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8480748, "player": "Kiefer Sherwood", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8484227, "player": "Will Smith", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8486103, "player": "Ivar Stenberg", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8475726, "player": "Tyler Toffoli", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8477505, "player": "Alexander Wennberg", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8482700, "player": "Nolan Allan", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8484152, "player": "Luca Cagnoni", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8484806, "player": "Sam Dickinson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8480891, "player": "Michael Kesselring", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8477498, "player": "Darnell Nurse", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8475200, "player": "Dmitry Orlov", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8476885, "player": "Jacob Trouba", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8482137, "player": "Yaroslav Askarov", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8477968, "player": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "San Jose Sharks", "abbreviation": "SJ", "player": "Cam Lund", "player_id": "5080203", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:15Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/18/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.087590+00:00" }, { "team": "San Jose Sharks", "abbreviation": "SJ", "player": "Quentin Musty", "player_id": "5149209", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:20Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/18/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.087590+00:00" }, { "team": "San Jose Sharks", "abbreviation": "SJ", "player": "Adam Gaudette", "player_id": "3942868", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T17:55Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/18/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.087590+00:00" }, { "team": "San Jose Sharks", "abbreviation": "SJ", "player": "Darnell Nurse", "player_id": "3041997", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T06:39Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/18/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.087590+00:00" }, { "team": "San Jose Sharks", "abbreviation": "SJ", "player": "Kyle Keyser", "player_id": "4329962", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:10Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/18/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.087590+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8483481, "incumbent": "Cam Lund", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:15Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482859, "player": "Zack Ostapchuk", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 555, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 79 }, { "player_id": 8484227, "player": "Will Smith", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 229, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484806, "player": "Sam Dickinson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1155, "PP_seconds": 7, "SH_seconds": 35 }, { "player_id": 8475200, "player": "Dmitry Orlov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476624, "player": "Barclay Goodrow", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 582, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8484994, "player": "Igor Chernyshov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 883, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478975, "player": "Mason Marchment", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 929, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477498, "player": "Darnell Nurse", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 854, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 205 }, { "player_id": 8480748, "player": "Kiefer Sherwood", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 739, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8484801, "player": "Macklin Celebrini", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 959, "PP_seconds": 229, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8485402, "player": "Michael Misa", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 680, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484911, "player": "Collin Graf", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 627, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 158 }, { "player_id": 8477505, "player": "Alexander Wennberg", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 935, "PP_seconds": 228, "SH_seconds": 37 }, { "player_id": 8476885, "player": "Jacob Trouba", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1102, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 158 }, { "player_id": 8484152, "player": "Luca Cagnoni", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 787, "PP_seconds": 154, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486103, "player": "Ivar Stenberg", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 781, "PP_seconds": 228, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475726, "player": "Tyler Toffoli", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 696, "PP_seconds": 68, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480891, "player": "Michael Kesselring", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1073, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 82 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8483481, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483481/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "11:30", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.666667, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 11, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -10, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.166667, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 12, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sharks" }, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Sharks", "fr": "Sharks de San Jose" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "San Jose", "fr": "de San Jose" } }, { "assists": 22, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 37, "goals": 18, "leagueAbbrev": "NCAA", "pim": 14, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 40, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Northeastern Univ." } }, { "assists": 16, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 37, "goals": 9, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 12, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 25, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Barracuda" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" }, { "incumbent_id": 8484200, "incumbent": "Quentin Musty", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:20Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482859, "player": "Zack Ostapchuk", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 555, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 79 }, { "player_id": 8484227, "player": "Will Smith", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 229, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484806, "player": "Sam Dickinson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1155, "PP_seconds": 7, "SH_seconds": 35 }, { "player_id": 8475200, "player": "Dmitry Orlov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476624, "player": "Barclay Goodrow", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 582, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8484994, "player": "Igor Chernyshov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 883, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478975, "player": "Mason Marchment", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 929, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477498, "player": "Darnell Nurse", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 854, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 205 }, { "player_id": 8480748, "player": "Kiefer Sherwood", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 739, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8484801, "player": "Macklin Celebrini", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 959, "PP_seconds": 229, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8485402, "player": "Michael Misa", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 680, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484911, "player": "Collin Graf", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 627, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 158 }, { "player_id": 8477505, "player": "Alexander Wennberg", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 935, "PP_seconds": 228, "SH_seconds": 37 }, { "player_id": 8476885, "player": "Jacob Trouba", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1102, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 158 }, { "player_id": 8484152, "player": "Luca Cagnoni", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 787, "PP_seconds": 154, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486103, "player": "Ivar Stenberg", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 781, "PP_seconds": 228, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475726, "player": "Tyler Toffoli", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 696, "PP_seconds": 68, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480891, "player": "Michael Kesselring", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1073, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 82 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8484200, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8484200/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 29, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 33, "goals": 30, "leagueAbbrev": "OHL", "pim": 14, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 59, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Sudbury Wolves" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Barracuda" } }, { "assists": 3, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "OHL", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 4, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Sudbury Wolves" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Barracuda" } }, { "assists": 24, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 61, "goals": 21, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 46, "plusMinus": -14, "points": 45, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Barracuda" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Barracuda" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" }, { "incumbent_id": 8478874, "incumbent": "Adam Gaudette", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T17:55Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482859, "player": "Zack Ostapchuk", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 555, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 79 }, { "player_id": 8484227, "player": "Will Smith", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 229, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484806, "player": "Sam Dickinson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1155, "PP_seconds": 7, "SH_seconds": 35 }, { "player_id": 8475200, "player": "Dmitry Orlov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476624, "player": "Barclay Goodrow", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 582, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8484994, "player": "Igor Chernyshov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 883, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478975, "player": "Mason Marchment", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 929, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477498, "player": "Darnell Nurse", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 854, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 205 }, { "player_id": 8480748, "player": "Kiefer Sherwood", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 739, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8484801, "player": "Macklin Celebrini", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 959, "PP_seconds": 229, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8485402, "player": "Michael Misa", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 680, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484911, "player": "Collin Graf", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 627, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 158 }, { "player_id": 8477505, "player": "Alexander Wennberg", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 935, "PP_seconds": 228, "SH_seconds": 37 }, { "player_id": 8476885, "player": "Jacob Trouba", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1102, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 158 }, { "player_id": 8484152, "player": "Luca Cagnoni", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 787, "PP_seconds": 154, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486103, "player": "Ivar Stenberg", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 781, "PP_seconds": 228, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475726, "player": "Tyler Toffoli", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 696, "PP_seconds": 68, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480891, "player": "Michael Kesselring", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1073, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 82 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8478874, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478874/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "10:25", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.502857, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 81, "goals": 19, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 12, "plusMinus": 12, "points": 26, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.211111, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 90, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "JPL-Pro", "points": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Top Line Hockey" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "9:17", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.346154, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.25, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 3, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "JPL-Pro", "points": 8, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Top Line Hockey" } }, { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "11:28", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.476703, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 66, "goals": 17, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 20, "plusMinus": -9, "points": 25, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 6, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.177083, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 96, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sharks" }, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Sharks", "fr": "Sharks de San Jose" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "San Jose", "fr": "de San Jose" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8477498, "incumbent": "Darnell Nurse", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T06:39Z" } ], "reference_role": { "player_id": 8477498, "player": "Darnell Nurse", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 854, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 205 }, "reference_present": true, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482859, "player": "Zack Ostapchuk", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 555, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 79 }, { "player_id": 8484227, "player": "Will Smith", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 229, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484806, "player": "Sam Dickinson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1155, "PP_seconds": 7, "SH_seconds": 35 }, { "player_id": 8475200, "player": "Dmitry Orlov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476624, "player": "Barclay Goodrow", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 582, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 121 }, { "player_id": 8484994, "player": "Igor Chernyshov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 883, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478975, "player": "Mason Marchment", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 929, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480748, "player": "Kiefer Sherwood", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 739, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8484801, "player": "Macklin Celebrini", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 959, "PP_seconds": 229, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8485402, "player": "Michael Misa", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 680, "PP_seconds": 70, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484911, "player": "Collin Graf", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 627, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 158 }, { "player_id": 8477505, "player": "Alexander Wennberg", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 935, "PP_seconds": 228, "SH_seconds": 37 }, { "player_id": 8476885, "player": "Jacob Trouba", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1102, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 158 }, { "player_id": 8484152, "player": "Luca Cagnoni", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 787, "PP_seconds": 154, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486103, "player": "Ivar Stenberg", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 781, "PP_seconds": 228, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475726, "player": "Tyler Toffoli", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 696, "PP_seconds": 68, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480891, "player": "Michael Kesselring", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1073, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 82 } ], "conclusion": "Dated status versus actual play checked; contemporaneous flag conditional, older flag superseded by participation.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8477498, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477498/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 28, "avgToi": "22:22", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 76, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 72, "plusMinus": 11, "points": 33, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.026596, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 188, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 5, "avgToi": "23:16", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 22, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 31, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 8, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.069767, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 43, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 17, "avgToi": "20:58", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 7, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 104, "plusMinus": -12, "points": 24, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.042683, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 164, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "23:08", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 15, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "20:35", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 9, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.083333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 12, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sharks" }, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Sharks", "fr": "Sharks de San Jose" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "San Jose", "fr": "de San Jose" } } ] } } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8475200, 8475726, 8476624, 8476885, 8477498, 8477505, 8477968, 8478874, 8478975, 8479718, 8480748, 8480848, 8480891, 8482137, 8482700, 8482859, 8483481, 8484152, 8484200, 8484227, 8484801, 8484806, 8484911, 8484994, 8485402, 8486103 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 76, "points": 28, "skaterFullName": "Dmitry Orlov", "goals": 6, "evGoals": 6, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "shots": 117, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 22, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.05128, "evPoints": 27, "playerId": 8475200, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1199.7894, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 78, "points": 54, "skaterFullName": "Tyler Toffoli", "goals": 30, "evGoals": 24, "ppGoals": 6, "teamAbbrevs": "SJS", "shots": 233, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 24, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 15, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.12875, "evPoints": 39, "playerId": 8475726, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1015.7692, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 77, "points": 8, "skaterFullName": "Barclay Goodrow", 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"gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Graf", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484911, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 14, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 767, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 127.83333, "shifts": 110, "shiftsPerGame": 18.33333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Collin Graf", "teamAbbrevs": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 5281, "timeOnIcePerGame": 880.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.00909 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4456, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 742.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Chernyshov", "otTimeOnIce": 82, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 27.33333, "playerId": 8484994, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 719, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 119.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 16, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.66666, "shifts": 111, "shiftsPerGame": 18.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Igor Chernyshov", "teamAbbrevs": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 5191, "timeOnIcePerGame": 865.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.76576 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4418, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 736.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Misa", "otTimeOnIce": 40, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 13.33333, "playerId": 8485402, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 446, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 74.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 34, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.66666, "shifts": 103, "shiftsPerGame": 17.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Michael Misa", "teamAbbrevs": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 4898, "timeOnIcePerGame": 816.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.55339 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4997, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 832.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Stenberg", "otTimeOnIce": 134, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 44.66666, "playerId": 8486103, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 719, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 119.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 112, "shiftsPerGame": 18.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ivar Stenberg", "teamAbbrevs": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 5716, "timeOnIcePerGame": 952.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.03571 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892513", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.012101313320825, 3.3781425891181986 ], "Primary": [ 2.9833833506390732, 3.4451906188247645 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.1463349999999997, 3.243895 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.1463349999999997, 3.243895 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020115, "team": "NSH", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 834, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 834.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020101, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Colton", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479525, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 42, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 42.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ross Colton", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 876, "timeOnIcePerGame": 876.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.8 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 869, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 869.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 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"shTimeOnIce": 32, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 32.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nicolas Hague", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 904, "timeOnIcePerGame": 904.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.04761 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 875, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 875.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020101, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Edstrom", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481726, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 83, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 83.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Adam Edstrom", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 958, "timeOnIcePerGame": 958.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.42105 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 984, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 984.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020101, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Struble", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481593, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jayden Struble", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 984, "timeOnIcePerGame": 984.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.72727 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 610, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 610.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020101, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Pinchuk", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8486189, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 77, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 77.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Vitali Pinchuk", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 687, "timeOnIcePerGame": 687.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.9375 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 856, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 856.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020101, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Stamkos", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8474564, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 277, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 277.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Steven Stamkos", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1133, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1133.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.65 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8479525, "player": "Ross Colton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 834, "PP_seconds": 42, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480835, "player": "Jack Drury", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 869, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 143 }, { "player_id": 8482482, "player": "Adam Wilsby", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1109, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 40 }, { "player_id": 8476887, "player": "Filip Forsberg", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1107, "PP_seconds": 279, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480246, "player": "Nick Perbix", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 751, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 173 }, { "player_id": 8484241, "player": "Matthew Wood", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 732, "PP_seconds": 92, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476539, "player": "Jonathan Marchessault", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 750, "PP_seconds": 270, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482072, "player": "Jack Ahcan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 451, "PP_seconds": 91, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474600, "player": "Roman Josi", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1047, "PP_seconds": 278, "SH_seconds": 58 }, { "player_id": 8476869, "player": "Brady Skjei", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 807, "PP_seconds": 36, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8477021, "player": "Alexander Kerfoot", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 86, "SH_seconds": 157 }, { "player_id": 8475158, "player": "Ryan O'Reilly", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 857, "PP_seconds": 272, "SH_seconds": 93 }, { "player_id": 8481535, "player": "Nils Hoglander", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 741, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479980, "player": "Nicolas Hague", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 872, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8481726, "player": "Adam Edstrom", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 875, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 83 }, { "player_id": 8481593, "player": "Jayden Struble", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 984, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486189, "player": "Vitali Pinchuk", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 610, "PP_seconds": 77, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474564, "player": "Steven Stamkos", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 856, "PP_seconds": 277, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15000, "PP_seconds": 1800, "SH_seconds": 960 }, "conditional_branches": [], "return_branches": "Any return depends on current official clearance; prior actual role samples retained, future minutes unestimated.", "PP_units": "Unknown final units; official actual strength exposure retained, no roster-order inference", "line_combinations": "Latest actual official skaters and retained prior previews; October15 final lines not announced.", "OT_note": "Observed workload includes any OT; not a forecast of penalties or OT." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8476887, "name": { "default": "F. Forsberg" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:06", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8477021, "name": { "default": "A. Kerfoot" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:31", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8480835, "name": { "default": "J. Drury" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:52", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8481535, "name": { "default": "N. Hoglander", "cs": "H\u00f6glander", "fi": "N. H\u00f6glander", "sk": "N. H\u00f6glander", "sv": "N. H\u00f6glander" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:21", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8486189, "name": { "default": "V. Pinchuk" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:27", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8484241, "name": { "default": "M. Wood" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:44", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8479525, "name": { "default": "R. Colton" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:36", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8476539, "name": { "default": "J. Marchessault" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:00", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8481726, "name": { "default": "A. Edstrom", "cs": "A. Edstr\u00f6m", "fi": "A. Edstr\u00f6m", "sk": "A. Edstr\u00f6m", "sv": "A. Edstr\u00f6m" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:58", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8475158, "name": { "default": "R. O'Reilly" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:22", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8474564, "name": { "default": "S. Stamkos" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:53", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8482482, "name": { "default": "A. Wilsby" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:09", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8481593, "name": { "default": "J. Struble" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:24", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8479980, "name": { "default": "N. Hague" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:04", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8482072, "name": { "default": "J. Ahcan" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:02", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8480246, "name": { "default": "N. Perbix" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:24", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8474600, "name": { "default": "R. Josi" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:03", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8476869, "name": { "default": "B. Skjei" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:04", "shifts": 20 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.012101313320825, 3.3781425891181986 ], "Primary": [ 2.9833833506390732, 3.4451906188247645 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.1463349999999997, 3.243895 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.1463349999999997, 3.243895 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482145/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482806/landing" ], "findings": "Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8482145, "player": "Mavrik Bourque", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8479525, "player": "Ross Colton", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8480835, "player": "Jack Drury", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8481726, "player": "Adam Edstrom", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8476887, "player": "Filip Forsberg", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8481535, "player": "Nils Hoglander", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8477021, "player": "Alexander Kerfoot", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8476539, "player": "Jonathan Marchessault", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8475158, "player": "Ryan O'Reilly", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8486189, "player": "Vitali Pinchuk", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8483513, "player": "Reid Schaefer", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8474564, "player": "Steven Stamkos", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8484241, "player": "Matthew Wood", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8482072, "player": "Jack Ahcan", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8479980, "player": "Nicolas Hague", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8474600, "player": "Roman Josi", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8480950, "player": "Ilya Lyubushkin", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8480246, "player": "Nick Perbix", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8476869, "player": "Brady Skjei", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8481593, "player": "Jayden Struble", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8482806, "player": "William Trudeau", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8482482, "player": "Adam Wilsby", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8481020, "player": "Justus Annunen", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8483575, "player": "Matt Murray", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8477424, "player": "Juuse Saros", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Nashville Predators", "abbreviation": "NSH", "player": "Mavrik Bourque", "player_id": "4697413", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/27/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.918401+00:00" }, { "team": "Nashville Predators", "abbreviation": "NSH", "player": "William Trudeau", "player_id": "5103808", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-09T18:20Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/27/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.918401+00:00" }, { "team": "Nashville Predators", "abbreviation": "NSH", "player": "Justus Annunen", "player_id": "4393408", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-14T00:17Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/27/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.918401+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8482145, "incumbent": "Mavrik Bourque", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8479525, "player": "Ross Colton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 834, "PP_seconds": 42, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480835, "player": "Jack Drury", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 869, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 143 }, { "player_id": 8482482, "player": "Adam Wilsby", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1109, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 40 }, { "player_id": 8476887, "player": "Filip Forsberg", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1107, "PP_seconds": 279, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480246, "player": "Nick Perbix", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 751, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 173 }, { "player_id": 8484241, "player": "Matthew Wood", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 732, "PP_seconds": 92, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476539, "player": "Jonathan Marchessault", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 750, "PP_seconds": 270, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482072, "player": "Jack Ahcan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 451, "PP_seconds": 91, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474600, "player": "Roman Josi", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1047, "PP_seconds": 278, "SH_seconds": 58 }, { "player_id": 8476869, "player": "Brady Skjei", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 807, "PP_seconds": 36, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8477021, "player": "Alexander Kerfoot", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 86, "SH_seconds": 157 }, { "player_id": 8475158, "player": "Ryan O'Reilly", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 857, "PP_seconds": 272, "SH_seconds": 93 }, { "player_id": 8481535, "player": "Nils Hoglander", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 741, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479980, "player": "Nicolas Hague", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 872, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8481726, "player": "Adam Edstrom", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 875, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 83 }, { "player_id": 8481593, "player": "Jayden Struble", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 984, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486189, "player": "Vitali Pinchuk", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 610, "PP_seconds": 77, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474564, "player": "Steven Stamkos", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 856, "PP_seconds": 277, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8482145, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482145/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 14, "avgToi": "12:41", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.462644, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 73, "goals": 11, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 25, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.1375, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 80, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Stars" }, "teamName": { "default": "Dallas Stars", "fr": "Stars de Dallas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Dallas", "fr": "de Dallas" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "10:32", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.3, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 8, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Stars" }, "teamName": { "default": "Dallas Stars", "fr": "Stars de Dallas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Dallas", "fr": "de Dallas" } }, { "assists": 21, "avgToi": "15:29", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.45339, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 20, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 41, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 5, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.136054, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 147, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Stars" }, "teamName": { "default": "Dallas Stars", "fr": "Stars de Dallas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Dallas", "fr": "de Dallas" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "16:48", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.416667, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.071429, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 14, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Stars" }, "teamName": { "default": "Dallas Stars", "fr": "Stars de Dallas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Dallas", "fr": "de Dallas" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "15:45", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.4375, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 7, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Predators" }, "teamName": { "default": "Nashville Predators", "fr": "Predators de Nashville" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Nashville", "fr": "de Nashville" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8482806, "incumbent": "William Trudeau", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-09T18:20Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8479525, "player": "Ross Colton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 834, "PP_seconds": 42, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480835, "player": "Jack Drury", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 869, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 143 }, { "player_id": 8482482, "player": "Adam Wilsby", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1109, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 40 }, { "player_id": 8476887, "player": "Filip Forsberg", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1107, "PP_seconds": 279, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480246, "player": "Nick Perbix", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 751, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 173 }, { "player_id": 8484241, "player": "Matthew Wood", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 732, "PP_seconds": 92, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476539, "player": "Jonathan Marchessault", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 750, "PP_seconds": 270, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482072, "player": "Jack Ahcan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 451, "PP_seconds": 91, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474600, "player": "Roman Josi", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1047, "PP_seconds": 278, "SH_seconds": 58 }, { "player_id": 8476869, "player": "Brady Skjei", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 807, "PP_seconds": 36, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8477021, "player": "Alexander Kerfoot", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 86, "SH_seconds": 157 }, { "player_id": 8475158, "player": "Ryan O'Reilly", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 857, "PP_seconds": 272, "SH_seconds": 93 }, { "player_id": 8481535, "player": "Nils Hoglander", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 741, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479980, "player": "Nicolas Hague", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 872, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8481726, "player": "Adam Edstrom", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 875, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 83 }, { "player_id": 8481593, "player": "Jayden Struble", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 984, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486189, "player": "Vitali Pinchuk", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 610, "PP_seconds": 77, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474564, "player": "Steven Stamkos", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 856, "PP_seconds": 277, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8482806, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482806/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 14, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 68, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 54, "plusMinus": 14, "points": 19, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 3, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 12, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 62, "goals": 8, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 54, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 20, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 12, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "9:11", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Predators" }, "teamName": { "default": "Nashville Predators", "fr": "Predators de Nashville" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Nashville", "fr": "de Nashville" } } ] } } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8474564, 8474600, 8475158, 8476539, 8476869, 8476887, 8477021, 8477424, 8479525, 8479980, 8480246, 8480835, 8480950, 8481020, 8481535, 8481593, 8481726, 8482072, 8482145, 8482482, 8482806, 8483513, 8483575, 8484241, 8486189 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 53, "skaterFullName": "Steven Stamkos", "goals": 27, "evGoals": 13, "ppGoals": 14, "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "shots": 174, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 26, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 21, "gameWinningGoals": 6, "shootingPct": 0.15517, "evPoints": 32, "playerId": 8474564, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1079.9878, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 53, "points": 38, "skaterFullName": "Roman Josi", "goals": 9, "evGoals": 7, "ppGoals": 2, "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "shots": 150, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 29, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 17, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.06, "evPoints": 21, "playerId": 8474600, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1501.9433, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 79, "points": 53, "skaterFullName": "Ryan O'Reilly", "goals": 21, "evGoals": 12, "ppGoals": 9, "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "shots": 151, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 32, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 17, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.13907, "evPoints": 36, "playerId": 8475158, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1139.3037, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 78, "points": 56, "skaterFullName": "Jonathan Marchessault", "goals": 21, "evGoals": 17, "ppGoals": 4, "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "shots": 206, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 35, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 23, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "shootingPct": 0.10194, "evPoints": 33, "playerId": 8476539, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1078.6153, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 33, "skaterFullName": "Brady Skjei", "goals": 10, "evGoals": 8, "ppGoals": 2, "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "shots": 156, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 23, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 10, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0641, "evPoints": 23, "playerId": 8476869, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1313.4634, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 76, "skaterFullName": "Filip Forsberg", "goals": 31, "evGoals": 21, "ppGoals": 10, "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "shots": 281, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 45, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 26, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.11032, "evPoints": 50, "playerId": 8476887, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1117.6707, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 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16, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 199, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 33.16666, "shifts": 136, "shiftsPerGame": 22.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nicolas Hague", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 6495, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1082.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.75735 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5687, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 947.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Perbix", "otTimeOnIce": 129, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 64.5, "playerId": 8480246, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 28, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1010, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 168.33333, "shifts": 138, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nick Perbix", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 6725, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1120.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.73188 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4786, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 797.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Drury", "otTimeOnIce": 89, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 44.5, "playerId": 8480835, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 11, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 886, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 147.66666, "shifts": 121, "shiftsPerGame": 20.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jack Drury", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 5683, "timeOnIcePerGame": 947.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.96694 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3966, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 661.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Hoglander", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481535, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 263, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 43.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 84, "shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nils Hoglander", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 4229, "timeOnIcePerGame": 704.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.34523 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4134, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 826.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Struble", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481593, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 12, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 161, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 32.2, "shifts": 89, "shiftsPerGame": 17.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jayden Struble", "teamAbbrevs": "MTL,NSH", "timeOnIce": 4307, "timeOnIcePerGame": 861.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.39325 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4526, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 754.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Edstrom", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481726, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 18, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 210, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 35.0, "shifts": 103, "shiftsPerGame": 17.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Adam Edstrom", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 4754, "timeOnIcePerGame": 792.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.15533 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1186, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 395.33333, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Ahcan", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482072, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 183, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 61.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 32, "shiftsPerGame": 10.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jack Ahcan", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1369, "timeOnIcePerGame": 456.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.78125 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3366, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 841.5, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Bourque", "otTimeOnIce": 94, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 94.0, "playerId": 8482145, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 318, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 79.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 96, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 24.0, "shifts": 77, "shiftsPerGame": 19.25, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Mavrik Bourque", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 3780, "timeOnIcePerGame": 945.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.0909 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5833, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 972.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Wilsby", "otTimeOnIce": 120, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 60.0, "playerId": 8482482, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 524, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 87.33333, "shifts": 127, "shiftsPerGame": 21.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Adam Wilsby", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 6357, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1059.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.05511 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1652, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 550.66666, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Trudeau", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482806, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 34, "shiftsPerGame": 11.33333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "William Trudeau", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1652, "timeOnIcePerGame": 550.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.58823 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1872, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 624.0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Schaefer", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483513, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 9, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 33, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 11.0, "shifts": 39, "shiftsPerGame": 13.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Reid Schaefer", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1914, "timeOnIcePerGame": 638.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.07692 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4148, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 691.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Wood", "otTimeOnIce": 164, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 82.0, "playerId": 8484241, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 951, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 158.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 478, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 79.66666, "shifts": 114, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Matthew Wood", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 5577, "timeOnIcePerGame": 929.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.92105 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1148, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 574.0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Pinchuk", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8486189, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 209, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 104.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 32, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Vitali Pinchuk", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1357, "timeOnIcePerGame": 678.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.40625 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892513", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.012101313320825, 3.3781425891181986 ], "Primary": [ 2.9833833506390732, 3.4451906188247645 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.1463349999999997, 3.243895 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.1463349999999997, 3.243895 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "San Jose Sharks at Nashville Predators", "market": { "id": "401892513", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892513", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.586472+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.801632+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 180.0, "away_line_price": -218.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 102.0, "under_price": -122.0, "home_ml": -148.0, "away_ml": 124.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.36604127579737344, "combined": 6.390243902439024, "spread_buffer": -1.1339587242026266, "total_difference": -0.10975609756097615 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.36604127579737344, "combined": 6.390243902439024, "spread_buffer": -1.1339587242026266, "total_difference": -0.10975609756097615 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.4618072681856913, "combined": 6.428573969463837, "spread_buffer": -1.0381927318143087, "total_difference": -0.0714260305361627 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.4618072681856913, "combined": 6.428573969463837, "spread_buffer": -1.0381927318143087, "total_difference": -0.0714260305361627 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.09756000000000054, "combined": 6.39023, "spread_buffer": -1.4024399999999995, "total_difference": -0.10977000000000015 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.09756000000000054, "combined": 6.39023, "spread_buffer": -1.4024399999999995, "total_difference": -0.10977000000000015 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.09756000000000054, "combined": 6.39023, "spread_buffer": -1.4024399999999995, "total_difference": -0.10977000000000015 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.09756000000000054, "combined": 6.39023, "spread_buffer": -1.4024399999999995, "total_difference": -0.10977000000000015 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892514", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892514", "date": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1835", "fullName": "Grand Casino Arena", "address": { "city": "Saint Paul", "state": "MN", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "away": "19", "away_name": "St. Louis Blues", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "30", "home_name": "Minnesota Wild", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.7676429713015076, 3.273719685914808 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7676429713015076, 3.273719685914808 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7676429713015076, 3.273719685914808 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 2.817073170731707, 3.1463414634146343 ], "current_rates": [ 3.5, 3.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 7, "current_weight": 0.25925925925925924, "prior_rates": [ 3.317073170731707, 2.926829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 3.0, 2.2857142857142856 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0408536585365855, "mean_margin_error": 1.1651031894934332, "mean_total_error": 1.8578799249530955, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8353600000000001, 4.83536 ], "home": [ 1.182925, 5.182925 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.8685070842615152, 3.250527219683799 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8685070842615152, 3.250527219683799 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8685070842615152, 3.250527219683799 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2853, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-15T00:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "52c34c3445f9a414a983487152c4386aef5a0f4df759d280912f7f17468318de" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0580661730553012, "mean_margin_error": 1.1735321999404547, "mean_total_error": 1.9050370803767076, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8353600000000001, 4.83536 ], "home": [ 1.182925, 5.182925 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.83536, 3.182925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.83536, 3.182925 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.83536, 3.182925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.80487, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 19, "official_team_name": "St. Louis Blues" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30, "official_team_name": "Minnesota Wild" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8353600000000001, 4.83536 ], "home": [ 1.182925, 5.182925 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.83536, 3.182925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.83536, 3.182925 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.83536, 3.182925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.80487, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 19, "official_team_name": "St. Louis Blues" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30, "official_team_name": "Minnesota Wild" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8353600000000001, 4.83536 ], "home": [ 1.182925, 5.182925 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "STL: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. MIN: Sturm and Marcus Foligno IR confirmed by league; Kirkland recalled but did not play latest. Spurgeon new DTD conditional defense/PP branch.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Grand Casino Arena; listed 2026-10-16T00:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. 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Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "St. Louis Blues", "previous_game": { "id": "401892494", "date": "2026-10-13T23:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "19", "away_name": "St. Louis Blues", "away_score": 7.0, "home": "14", "home_name": "Ottawa Senators", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20739.979166666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Minnesota Wild", "previous_game": { "id": "401892497", "date": "2026-10-14T00:15Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1397", "fullName": "Canada Life Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Winnipeg", "state": "MB", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "30", "away_name": "Minnesota Wild", "away_score": 2.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Winnipeg Jets", "home_score": 5.0, "day": 20740.010416666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. 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Barron" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:28", "shifts": 26 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.7676429713015076, 3.273719685914808 ], "Primary": [ 2.8685070842615152, 3.250527219683799 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.83536, 3.182925 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.83536, 3.182925 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020096/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482733/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478443/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8481006/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479346/landing" ], "findings": "Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8481013, "player": "Jonatan Berggren", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8477402, "player": "Pavel Buchnevich", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8482784, "player": "Zach Dean", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8479346, "player": "Dillon Dube", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8484164, "player": "Dalibor Dvorsky", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8482077, "player": "Dylan Holloway", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8477527, "player": "Ross Johnston", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8481580, "player": "Connor McMichael", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8482745, "player": "Mason McTavish", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8482089, "player": "Jake Neighbours", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8482121, "player": "Dylan Peterson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8483516, "player": "Jimmy Snuggerud", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8480459, "player": "Pius Suter", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8480023, "player": "Robert Thomas", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8480281, "player": "Alexey Toropchenko", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8482111, "player": "Justin Barron", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8481598, "player": "Philip Broberg", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8478443, "player": "Brandon Carlo", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8475764, "player": "Cam Fowler", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8484790, "player": "Adam Jiricek", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8484188, "player": "Theo Lindstein", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8482733, "player": "Logan Mailloux", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8476892, "player": "Colton Parayko", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8481006, "player": "Tyler Tucker", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8476412, "player": "Jordan Binnington", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8480981, "player": "Joel Hofer", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "St. Louis Blues", "abbreviation": "STL", "player": "Dillon Dube", "player_id": "4063268", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T21:13Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/19/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.119194+00:00" }, { "team": "St. Louis Blues", "abbreviation": "STL", "player": "Brandon Carlo", "player_id": "3904175", "injuries": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-06-27T16:05Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/19/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.119194+00:00" }, { "team": "St. Louis Blues", "abbreviation": "STL", "player": "Logan Mailloux", "player_id": "4874748", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T15:40Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/19/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.119194+00:00" }, { "team": "St. Louis Blues", "abbreviation": "STL", "player": "Tyler Tucker", "player_id": "4587904", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-30T19:39Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/19/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.119194+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8479346, "incumbent": "Dillon Dube", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T21:13Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8481580, "player": "Connor McMichael", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 593, "PP_seconds": 166, "SH_seconds": 105 }, { "player_id": 8482111, "player": "Justin Barron", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 871, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 237 }, { "player_id": 8475764, "player": "Cam Fowler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1032, "PP_seconds": 162, "SH_seconds": 141 }, { "player_id": 8477402, "player": "Pavel Buchnevich", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 689, "PP_seconds": 179, "SH_seconds": 235 }, { "player_id": 8478443, "player": "Brandon Carlo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 946, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 162 }, { "player_id": 8477527, "player": "Ross Johnston", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 558, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482077, "player": "Dylan Holloway", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 834, "PP_seconds": 123, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480459, "player": "Pius Suter", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 582, "PP_seconds": 41, "SH_seconds": 298 }, { "player_id": 8482089, "player": "Jake Neighbours", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 796, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 67 }, { "player_id": 8483516, "player": "Jimmy Snuggerud", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 841, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8476892, "player": "Colton Parayko", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 948, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 212 }, { "player_id": 8484790, "player": "Adam Jiricek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 798, "PP_seconds": 106, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480023, "player": "Robert Thomas", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 876, "PP_seconds": 116, "SH_seconds": 81 }, { "player_id": 8482745, "player": "Mason McTavish", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 726, "PP_seconds": 157, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8481598, "player": "Philip Broberg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1130, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 193 }, { "player_id": 8481013, "player": "Jonatan Berggren", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 701, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 108 }, { "player_id": 8484164, "player": "Dalibor Dvorsky", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 825, "PP_seconds": 135, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482121, "player": "Dylan Peterson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 537, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8479346, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479346/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 7, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 42, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "KHL", "pim": 25, "plusMinus": -12, "points": 11, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Dinamo Minsk" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "KHL", "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Dinamo Minsk" } }, { "assists": 17, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 46, "goals": 20, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 10, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 37, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Springfield Thunderbirds" } }, { "assists": 3, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 12, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 8, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Springfield Thunderbirds" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "11:32", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 1.0, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blues" }, "teamName": { "default": "St. Louis Blues", "fr": "Blues de St. Louis" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "St. Louis", "fr": "de St. Louis" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8478443, "incumbent": "Brandon Carlo", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-06-27T16:05Z" } ], "reference_role": { "player_id": 8478443, "player": "Brandon Carlo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 946, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 162 }, "reference_present": true, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8481580, "player": "Connor McMichael", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 593, "PP_seconds": 166, "SH_seconds": 105 }, { "player_id": 8482111, "player": "Justin Barron", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 871, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 237 }, { "player_id": 8475764, "player": "Cam Fowler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1032, "PP_seconds": 162, "SH_seconds": 141 }, { "player_id": 8477402, "player": "Pavel Buchnevich", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 689, "PP_seconds": 179, "SH_seconds": 235 }, { "player_id": 8477527, "player": "Ross Johnston", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 558, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482077, "player": "Dylan Holloway", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 834, "PP_seconds": 123, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480459, "player": "Pius Suter", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 582, "PP_seconds": 41, "SH_seconds": 298 }, { "player_id": 8482089, "player": "Jake Neighbours", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 796, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 67 }, { "player_id": 8483516, "player": "Jimmy Snuggerud", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 841, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8476892, "player": "Colton Parayko", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 948, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 212 }, { "player_id": 8484790, "player": "Adam Jiricek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 798, "PP_seconds": 106, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480023, "player": "Robert Thomas", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 876, "PP_seconds": 116, "SH_seconds": 81 }, { "player_id": 8482745, "player": "Mason McTavish", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 726, "PP_seconds": 157, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8481598, "player": "Philip Broberg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1130, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 193 }, { "player_id": 8481013, "player": "Jonatan Berggren", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 701, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 108 }, { "player_id": 8484164, "player": "Dalibor Dvorsky", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 825, "PP_seconds": 135, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482121, "player": "Dylan Peterson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 537, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Dated status versus actual play checked; contemporaneous flag conditional, older flag superseded by participation.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8478443, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478443/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "18:48", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 63, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 24, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 9, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.015625, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 64, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Bruins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Boston Bruins", "fr": "Bruins de Boston" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Boston", "fr": "de Boston" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "19:13", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 20, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 13, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 13, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "19:05", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 14, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } }, { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "19:22", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 55, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 37, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 66, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "17:42", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 19, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blues" }, "teamName": { "default": "St. Louis Blues", "fr": "Blues de St. Louis" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "St. Louis", "fr": "de St. Louis" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8482733, "incumbent": "Logan Mailloux", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T15:40Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8481580, "player": "Connor McMichael", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 593, "PP_seconds": 166, "SH_seconds": 105 }, { "player_id": 8482111, "player": "Justin Barron", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 871, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 237 }, { "player_id": 8475764, "player": "Cam Fowler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1032, "PP_seconds": 162, "SH_seconds": 141 }, { "player_id": 8477402, "player": "Pavel Buchnevich", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 689, "PP_seconds": 179, "SH_seconds": 235 }, { "player_id": 8478443, "player": "Brandon Carlo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 946, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 162 }, { "player_id": 8477527, "player": "Ross Johnston", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 558, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482077, "player": "Dylan Holloway", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 834, "PP_seconds": 123, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480459, "player": "Pius Suter", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 582, "PP_seconds": 41, "SH_seconds": 298 }, { "player_id": 8482089, "player": "Jake Neighbours", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 796, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 67 }, { "player_id": 8483516, "player": "Jimmy Snuggerud", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 841, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8476892, "player": "Colton Parayko", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 948, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 212 }, { "player_id": 8484790, "player": "Adam Jiricek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 798, "PP_seconds": 106, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480023, "player": "Robert Thomas", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 876, "PP_seconds": 116, "SH_seconds": 81 }, { "player_id": 8482745, "player": "Mason McTavish", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 726, "PP_seconds": 157, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8481598, "player": "Philip Broberg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1130, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 193 }, { "player_id": 8481013, "player": "Jonatan Berggren", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 701, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 108 }, { "player_id": 8484164, "player": "Dalibor Dvorsky", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 825, "PP_seconds": 135, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482121, "player": "Dylan Peterson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 537, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8482733, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482733/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "16:12", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 10, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canadiens" }, "teamName": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "fr": "Canadiens de Montr\u00e9al" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al", "fr": "de Montr\u00e9al" } }, { "assists": 21, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 63, "goals": 12, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 74, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 33, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 4, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 28, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 6, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "16:46", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 67, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 48, "plusMinus": -10, "points": 13, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.061728, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 81, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blues" }, "teamName": { "default": "St. Louis Blues", "fr": "Blues de St. Louis" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "St. Louis", "fr": "de St. Louis" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Springfield Thunderbirds" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8481006, "incumbent": "Tyler Tucker", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-30T19:39Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8481580, "player": "Connor McMichael", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 593, "PP_seconds": 166, "SH_seconds": 105 }, { "player_id": 8482111, "player": "Justin Barron", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 871, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 237 }, { "player_id": 8475764, "player": "Cam Fowler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1032, "PP_seconds": 162, "SH_seconds": 141 }, { "player_id": 8477402, "player": "Pavel Buchnevich", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 689, "PP_seconds": 179, "SH_seconds": 235 }, { "player_id": 8478443, "player": "Brandon Carlo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 946, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 162 }, { "player_id": 8477527, "player": "Ross Johnston", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 558, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482077, "player": "Dylan Holloway", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 834, "PP_seconds": 123, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480459, "player": "Pius Suter", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 582, "PP_seconds": 41, "SH_seconds": 298 }, { "player_id": 8482089, "player": "Jake Neighbours", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 796, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 67 }, { "player_id": 8483516, "player": "Jimmy Snuggerud", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 841, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8476892, "player": "Colton Parayko", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 948, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 212 }, { "player_id": 8484790, "player": "Adam Jiricek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 798, "PP_seconds": 106, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480023, "player": "Robert Thomas", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 876, "PP_seconds": 116, "SH_seconds": 81 }, { "player_id": 8482745, "player": "Mason McTavish", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 726, "PP_seconds": 157, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8481598, "player": "Philip Broberg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1130, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 193 }, { "player_id": 8481013, "player": "Jonatan Berggren", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 701, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 108 }, { "player_id": 8484164, "player": "Dalibor Dvorsky", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 825, "PP_seconds": 135, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482121, "player": "Dylan Peterson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 537, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8481006, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8481006/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "14:35", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 38, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 55, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.090909, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 33, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blues" }, "teamName": { "default": "St. Louis Blues", "fr": "Blues de St. Louis" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "St. Louis", "fr": "de St. Louis" } }, { "assists": 6, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 19, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 39, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 10, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Springfield Thunderbirds" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "14:24", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.25, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blues" }, "teamName": { "default": "St. Louis Blues", "fr": "Blues de St. Louis" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "St. Louis", "fr": "de St. Louis" } }, { "assists": 14, "avgToi": "14:22", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 69, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 81, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 17, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.044118, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 68, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blues" }, "teamName": { "default": "St. Louis Blues", "fr": "Blues de St. Louis" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "St. Louis", "fr": "de St. Louis" } } ] } } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8475764, 8476412, 8476892, 8477402, 8477527, 8478443, 8479346, 8480023, 8480281, 8480459, 8480981, 8481006, 8481013, 8481580, 8481598, 8482077, 8482089, 8482111, 8482121, 8482733, 8482745, 8482784, 8483516, 8484164, 8484188, 8484790 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 68, "points": 40, "skaterFullName": "Cam Fowler", "goals": 9, "evGoals": 7, "ppGoals": 2, "teamAbbrevs": "ANA,STL", "shots": 88, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 31, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 8, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.10227, "evPoints": 32, "playerId": 8475764, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1292.5882, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 64, "points": 36, "skaterFullName": "Colton Parayko", "goals": 16, "evGoals": 14, "ppGoals": 1, "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "shots": 125, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 20, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "shootingPct": 0.128, "evPoints": 33, "playerId": 8476892, "shGoals": 1, "shPoints": 2, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1425.1562, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 76, "points": 57, "skaterFullName": "Pavel Buchnevich", "goals": 20, "evGoals": 18, "ppGoals": 2, "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "shots": 145, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 37, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 12, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.13793, "evPoints": 43, "playerId": 8477402, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 2, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1141.5921, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 43, "points": 4, "skaterFullName": "Ross Johnston", "goals": 1, "evGoals": 1, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "ANA", "shots": 9, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 3, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.11111, "evPoints": 4, "playerId": 8477527, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 521.4651, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 83, "points": 12, "skaterFullName": "Brandon Carlo", "goals": 1, "evGoals": 1, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "BOS,TOR", "shots": 77, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 11, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.01298, "evPoints": 12, "playerId": 8478443, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1134.0, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 70, "points": 81, "skaterFullName": "Robert Thomas", "goals": 21, "evGoals": 17, "ppGoals": 3, "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "shots": 145, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 60, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 19, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "shootingPct": 0.14482, "evPoints": 61, "playerId": 8480023, "shGoals": 1, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1197.4857, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 80, "points": 18, "skaterFullName": "Alexey Toropchenko", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 4, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "shots": 90, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 14, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.04444, "evPoints": 18, "playerId": 8480281, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 749.55, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 81, "points": 46, "skaterFullName": "Pius Suter", "goals": 25, "evGoals": 22, "ppGoals": 2, "teamAbbrevs": "VAN", "shots": 138, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 21, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 5, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.18115, "evPoints": 39, "playerId": 8480459, "shGoals": 1, "shPoints": 2, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1040.6419, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 38, "points": 7, "skaterFullName": "Tyler Tucker", "goals": 3, "evGoals": 3, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "shots": 33, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 4, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.0909, "evPoints": 6, "playerId": 8481006, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 874.6052, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 75, "points": 24, "skaterFullName": "Jonatan Berggren", "goals": 12, "evGoals": 9, "ppGoals": 3, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "shots": 88, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 12, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 5, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.13636, "evPoints": 19, "playerId": 8481013, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 778.6266, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 57, "skaterFullName": "Connor McMichael", "goals": 26, "evGoals": 22, "ppGoals": 4, "teamAbbrevs": "WSH", "shots": 177, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 31, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 10, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "shootingPct": 0.14689, "evPoints": 46, "playerId": 8481580, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1008.5121, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 68, "points": 29, "skaterFullName": "Philip Broberg", 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"opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892514", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.7676429713015076, 3.273719685914808 ], "Primary": [ 2.8685070842615152, 3.250527219683799 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.83536, 3.182925 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.83536, 3.182925 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020116, "team": "MIN", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 748, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 748.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020099, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Trenin", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "WPG", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478508, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 14, "shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Yakov Trenin", "teamAbbrev": "MIN", "timeOnIce": 748, "timeOnIcePerGame": 748.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.42857 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 787, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 787.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", 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"position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1115, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8483525, "player": "Danila Yurov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 809, "PP_seconds": 59, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483478, "player": "Rieger Lorenz", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 663, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478493, "player": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 879, "PP_seconds": 180, "SH_seconds": 37 }, { "player_id": 8481557, "player": "Matt Boldy", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1037, "PP_seconds": 183, "SH_seconds": 120 }, { "player_id": 8478864, "player": "Kirill Kaprizov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 181, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477451, "player": "Ryan Hartman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 58, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480800, "player": "Quinn Hughes", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1514, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8485702, "player": "Maxim 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Brodin" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:39", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8480800, "name": { "default": "Q. Hughes" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "28:25", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8482094, "name": { "default": "D. Hunt" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:47", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020099, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "playerId": 8483766, "name": { "default": "D. 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These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020099/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8481477/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482122/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8473422/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475220/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8474716/landing" ], "findings": "Sturm and Marcus Foligno IR confirmed by league; Kirkland recalled but did not play latest. 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"position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8482122, "player": "Brock Faber", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8480800, "player": "Quinn Hughes", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8482094, "player": "Daemon Hunt", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8482641, "player": "Matt Kiersted", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8476874, "player": "Olli Maatta", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8483766, "player": "David Spacek", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8474716, "player": "Jared Spurgeon", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8479406, "player": "Filip Gustavsson", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8475717, "player": "Calvin Pickard", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8482661, "player": "Jesper Wallstedt", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Minnesota Wild", "abbreviation": "MIN", "player": "Nico Sturm", "player_id": "4320625", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-13T16:43Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/30/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.908524+00:00" }, { "team": "Minnesota Wild", "abbreviation": "MIN", "player": "Marcus Foligno", "player_id": "5172", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T22:12Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/30/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.908524+00:00" }, { "team": "Minnesota Wild", "abbreviation": "MIN", "player": "Nick Foligno", "player_id": "3535", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-09T15:50Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/30/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.908524+00:00" }, { "team": "Minnesota Wild", "abbreviation": "MIN", "player": "Brock Faber", "player_id": "4697449", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T16:21Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/30/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.908524+00:00" }, { "team": "Minnesota Wild", "abbreviation": "MIN", "player": "Jared Spurgeon", "player_id": "5079", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/30/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.908524+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8481477, "incumbent": "Nico Sturm", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-13T16:43Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478508, "player": "Yakov Trenin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476399, "player": "Blake Coleman", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 787, "PP_seconds": 57, "SH_seconds": 31 }, { "player_id": 8482094, "player": "Daemon Hunt", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474567, "player": "Zach Bogosian", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1115, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8483525, "player": "Danila Yurov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 809, "PP_seconds": 59, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483478, "player": "Rieger Lorenz", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 663, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478493, "player": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 879, "PP_seconds": 180, "SH_seconds": 37 }, { "player_id": 8481557, "player": "Matt Boldy", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1037, "PP_seconds": 183, "SH_seconds": 120 }, { "player_id": 8478864, "player": "Kirill Kaprizov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 181, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477451, "player": "Ryan Hartman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 58, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480800, "player": "Quinn Hughes", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1514, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8485702, "player": "Maxim Shabanov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 724, "PP_seconds": 182, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476463, "player": "Jonas Brodin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1223, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 76 }, { "player_id": 8476874, "player": "Olli Maatta", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 896, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 151 }, { "player_id": 8481553, "player": "Bobby Brink", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 60, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475752, "player": "Tyler Pitlick", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 493, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483766, "player": "David Spacek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 902, "PP_seconds": 49, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477446, "player": "Michael McCarron", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8481477, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8481477/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "10:08", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.62724, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 47, "goals": 7, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 13, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 13, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.184211, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 38, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sharks" }, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Sharks", "fr": "Sharks de San Jose" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "San Jose", "fr": "de San Jose" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "11:18", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.51049, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 15, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 7, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 21, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "8:59", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.409836, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } }, { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "10:57", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.551075, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 49, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 11, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.135135, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 37, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "10:21", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.54, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.33, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Germany", "cs": "N\u011bmecko", "de": "Deutschland", "es": "Alemania", "fi": "Saksa", "fr": "Allemagne", "sk": "Nemecko", "sv": "Tyskland" }, "teamName": { "default": "Germany", "cs": "N\u011bmecko", "de": "Deutschland", "es": "Alemania", "fi": "Saksa", "fr": "Allemagne", "sk": "Nemecko", "sv": "Tyskland" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "10:25", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.475, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.1, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 10, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "9:02", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.882353, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8475220, "incumbent": "Marcus Foligno", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T22:12Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478508, "player": "Yakov Trenin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476399, "player": "Blake Coleman", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 787, "PP_seconds": 57, "SH_seconds": 31 }, { "player_id": 8482094, "player": "Daemon Hunt", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474567, "player": "Zach Bogosian", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1115, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8483525, "player": "Danila Yurov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 809, "PP_seconds": 59, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483478, "player": "Rieger Lorenz", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 663, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478493, "player": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 879, "PP_seconds": 180, "SH_seconds": 37 }, { "player_id": 8481557, "player": "Matt Boldy", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1037, "PP_seconds": 183, "SH_seconds": 120 }, { "player_id": 8478864, "player": "Kirill Kaprizov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 181, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477451, "player": "Ryan Hartman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 58, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480800, "player": "Quinn Hughes", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1514, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8485702, "player": "Maxim Shabanov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 724, "PP_seconds": 182, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476463, "player": "Jonas Brodin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1223, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 76 }, { "player_id": 8476874, "player": "Olli Maatta", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 896, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 151 }, { "player_id": 8481553, "player": "Bobby Brink", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 60, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475752, "player": "Tyler Pitlick", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 493, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483766, "player": "David Spacek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 902, "PP_seconds": 49, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477446, "player": "Michael McCarron", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8475220, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475220/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 15, "avgToi": "14:29", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.368421, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 77, "goals": 14, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 75, "plusMinus": 7, "points": 29, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.153846, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 91, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "16:04", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.2, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.3, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 10, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 5, "avgToi": "12:51", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.45, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 56, "goals": 8, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 67, "plusMinus": -12, "points": 13, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.123077, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 65, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "11:29", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 11, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.285714, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 7, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "12:10", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8473422, "incumbent": "Nick Foligno", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-09T15:50Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478508, "player": "Yakov Trenin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476399, "player": "Blake Coleman", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 787, "PP_seconds": 57, "SH_seconds": 31 }, { "player_id": 8482094, "player": "Daemon Hunt", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474567, "player": "Zach Bogosian", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1115, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8483525, "player": "Danila Yurov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 809, "PP_seconds": 59, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483478, "player": "Rieger Lorenz", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 663, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478493, "player": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 879, "PP_seconds": 180, "SH_seconds": 37 }, { "player_id": 8481557, "player": "Matt Boldy", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1037, "PP_seconds": 183, "SH_seconds": 120 }, { "player_id": 8478864, "player": "Kirill Kaprizov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 181, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477451, "player": "Ryan Hartman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 58, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480800, "player": "Quinn Hughes", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1514, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8485702, "player": "Maxim Shabanov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 724, "PP_seconds": 182, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476463, "player": "Jonas Brodin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1223, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 76 }, { "player_id": 8476874, "player": "Olli Maatta", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 896, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 151 }, { "player_id": 8481553, "player": "Bobby Brink", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 60, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475752, "player": "Tyler Pitlick", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 493, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483766, "player": "David Spacek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 902, "PP_seconds": 49, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477446, "player": "Michael McCarron", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8473422, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8473422/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 20, "avgToi": "15:55", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.484375, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 78, "goals": 15, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 48, "plusMinus": -17, "points": 35, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.144231, "shorthandedGoals": 2, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 104, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } }, { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "12:48", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.493902, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 37, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 27, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 11, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.1, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 30, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "12:19", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.494118, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 17, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 17, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.052632, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 19, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "12:05", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.444444, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 11, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 10, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "9:57", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.333333, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.333333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8482122, "incumbent": "Brock Faber", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T16:21Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478508, "player": "Yakov Trenin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476399, "player": "Blake Coleman", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 787, "PP_seconds": 57, "SH_seconds": 31 }, { "player_id": 8482094, "player": "Daemon Hunt", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474567, "player": "Zach Bogosian", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1115, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8483525, "player": "Danila Yurov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 809, "PP_seconds": 59, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483478, "player": "Rieger Lorenz", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 663, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478493, "player": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 879, "PP_seconds": 180, "SH_seconds": 37 }, { "player_id": 8481557, "player": "Matt Boldy", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1037, "PP_seconds": 183, "SH_seconds": 120 }, { "player_id": 8478864, "player": "Kirill Kaprizov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 181, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477451, "player": "Ryan Hartman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 58, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480800, "player": "Quinn Hughes", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1514, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8485702, "player": "Maxim Shabanov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 724, "PP_seconds": 182, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476463, "player": "Jonas Brodin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1223, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 76 }, { "player_id": 8476874, "player": "Olli Maatta", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 896, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 151 }, { "player_id": 8481553, "player": "Bobby Brink", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 60, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475752, "player": "Tyler Pitlick", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 493, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483766, "player": "David Spacek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 902, "PP_seconds": 49, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477446, "player": "Michael McCarron", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8482122, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482122/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 19, "avgToi": "25:32", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 78, "goals": 10, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 23, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 29, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 10, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.080645, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 124, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "23:20", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "4 Nations", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 44, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 1, "teamName": { "default": "United States" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "27:04", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 36, "avgToi": "24:41", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 80, "goals": 15, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 39, "plusMinus": 18, "points": 51, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 11, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.086705, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 173, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "18:01", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 7, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.13, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 8, "teamCommonName": { "default": "USA", "es": "Estados Unidos", "fi": "Yhdysvaltojen", "fr": "\u00c9tats-Unis" }, "teamName": { "default": "USA" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "29:44", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 11, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 10, "plusMinus": 11, "points": 10, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.137931, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 29, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8474716, "incumbent": "Jared Spurgeon", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478508, "player": "Yakov Trenin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476399, "player": "Blake Coleman", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 787, "PP_seconds": 57, "SH_seconds": 31 }, { "player_id": 8482094, "player": "Daemon Hunt", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474567, "player": "Zach Bogosian", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1115, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8483525, "player": "Danila Yurov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 809, "PP_seconds": 59, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483478, "player": "Rieger Lorenz", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 663, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478493, "player": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 879, "PP_seconds": 180, "SH_seconds": 37 }, { "player_id": 8481557, "player": "Matt Boldy", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1037, "PP_seconds": 183, "SH_seconds": 120 }, { "player_id": 8478864, "player": "Kirill Kaprizov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 181, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477451, "player": "Ryan Hartman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 58, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480800, "player": "Quinn Hughes", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1514, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8485702, "player": "Maxim Shabanov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 724, "PP_seconds": 182, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476463, "player": "Jonas Brodin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1223, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 76 }, { "player_id": 8476874, "player": "Olli Maatta", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 896, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 151 }, { "player_id": 8481553, "player": "Bobby Brink", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 60, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475752, "player": "Tyler Pitlick", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 493, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483766, "player": "David Spacek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 902, "PP_seconds": 49, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477446, "player": "Michael McCarron", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8474716, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8474716/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 25, "avgToi": "20:27", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 66, "goals": 7, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 14, "plusMinus": 8, "points": 32, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 9, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.065421, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 107, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 2, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 7, "points": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Canada" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "22:52", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.083333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 12, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 16, "avgToi": "19:36", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 79, "goals": 6, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 14, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 22, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 6, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.066667, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 90, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "21:01", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 11, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 11, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "22:22", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.142857, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 7, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } } ] } } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8473422, 8474567, 8474716, 8475220, 8475717, 8475752, 8476399, 8476463, 8476874, 8477446, 8477451, 8477993, 8478493, 8478508, 8478864, 8479406, 8480800, 8481477, 8481553, 8481557, 8482094, 8482122, 8482641, 8482661, 8483478, 8483525, 8483766, 8485702 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 78, "points": 35, "skaterFullName": "Nick Foligno", "goals": 15, "evGoals": 11, "ppGoals": 2, "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "shots": 104, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 20, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 4, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.14423, "evPoints": 29, "playerId": 8473422, "shGoals": 2, "shPoints": 2, "timeOnIcePerGame": 955.4871, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 81, "points": 16, "skaterFullName": "Zach Bogosian", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 4, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "MIN", "shots": 79, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 12, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.05063, "evPoints": 16, "playerId": 8474567, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 948.4197, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 66, "points": 32, "skaterFullName": "Jared Spurgeon", "goals": 7, "evGoals": 6, "ppGoals": 1, "teamAbbrevs": "MIN", "shots": 107, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 25, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 9, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.06542, "evPoints": 23, "playerId": 8474716, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1227.0606, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 77, "points": 29, "skaterFullName": "Marcus Foligno", "goals": 14, "evGoals": 14, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "MIN", "shots": 91, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 15, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.15384, "evPoints": 29, "playerId": 8475220, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 868.922, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 39, "skaterFullName": "Blake Coleman", "goals": 15, "evGoals": 10, "ppGoals": 4, "teamAbbrevs": "CGY", "shots": 194, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 24, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 5, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "shootingPct": 0.07731, "evPoints": 31, "playerId": 8476399, "shGoals": 1, "shPoints": 3, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1061.0853, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 50, "points": 20, "skaterFullName": "Jonas Brodin", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 4, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "MIN", "shots": 71, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 16, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.05633, "evPoints": 19, "playerId": 8476463, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1376.94, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 77, "points": 18, "skaterFullName": "Olli Maatta", "goals": 2, "evGoals": 2, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "DET,UTA", "shots": 73, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 16, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.02739, "evPoints": 18, "playerId": 8476874, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 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"timeOnIcePerShift": 43.51063 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5167, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 738.14285, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Shabanov", "otTimeOnIce": 58, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 58.0, "playerId": 8485702, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1243, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 177.57142, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 108, "shiftsPerGame": 15.42857, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Maxim Shabanov", "teamAbbrevs": "MIN", "timeOnIce": 6410, "timeOnIcePerGame": 915.71428, "timeOnIcePerShift": 59.35185 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892514", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.7676429713015076, 3.273719685914808 ], "Primary": [ 2.8685070842615152, 3.250527219683799 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.83536, 3.182925 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.83536, 3.182925 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild", "market": { "id": "401892514", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892514", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.604238+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.813501+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 180.0, "away_line_price": -218.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -135.0, "under_price": 114.0, "home_ml": -148.0, "away_ml": 124.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.5060767146133003, "combined": 6.0413626572163155, "spread_buffer": -0.9939232853866997, "total_difference": 0.5413626572163155 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.5060767146133003, "combined": 6.0413626572163155, "spread_buffer": -0.9939232853866997, "total_difference": 0.5413626572163155 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.38202013542228386, "combined": 6.119034303945314, "spread_buffer": -1.1179798645777161, "total_difference": 0.6190343039453143 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.38202013542228386, "combined": 6.119034303945314, "spread_buffer": -1.1179798645777161, "total_difference": 0.6190343039453143 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.3475649999999999, "combined": 6.0182850000000006, "spread_buffer": -1.152435, "total_difference": 0.5182850000000006 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.3475649999999999, "combined": 6.0182850000000006, "spread_buffer": -1.152435, "total_difference": 0.5182850000000006 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.3475649999999999, "combined": 6.0182850000000006, "spread_buffer": -1.152435, "total_difference": 0.5182850000000006 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.3475649999999999, "combined": 6.0182850000000006, "spread_buffer": -1.152435, "total_difference": 0.5182850000000006 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401908033", "sport": "MLB", "identity": { "id": "401908033", "date": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "19", "fullName": "Dodger Stadium", "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "California" }, "indoor": false }, "away": "8", "away_name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "19", "home_name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 4.347241512345679, 4.498919753086419 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.347241512345679, 4.498919753086419 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.347241512345679, 4.498919753086419 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 4.9753086419753085, 3.9135802469135803 ], "current_rates": [ 5.135802469135802, 3.814814814814815 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 5.092592592592593, 4.216049382716049 ], "current_rates": [ 4.944444444444445, 3.7037037037037037 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.07583912037037, "mean_margin_error": 4.15167824074074, "mean_total_error": 0.846161265432098, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "home": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.734716663556523, 3.5471021372203544 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.734716663556523, 3.5471021372203544 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.734716663556523, 3.5471021372203544 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4951, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-15T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "e47b22c6fbddb7756386292416d661b0f0e7012b06dade3af8908db20a009633" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.934227335845467, "mean_margin_error": 3.868454671690934, "mean_total_error": 0.7456307445596222, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "home": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 5.135802469135802, "pa": 3.814814814814815, "runs_for": 832, "runs_against": 618, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.944444444444445, "pa": 3.7037037037037037, "runs_for": 801, "runs_against": 600, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.9799382716049383, "mean_margin_error": 3.9598765432098766, "mean_total_error": 0.7993827160493829, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "home": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 5.135802469135802, "pa": 3.814814814814815, "runs_for": 832, "runs_against": 618, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.944444444444445, "pa": 3.7037037037037037, "runs_for": 801, "runs_against": 600, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.20654931437723745, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.9799382716049383, "mean_margin_error": 3.9598765432098766, "mean_total_error": 0.7993827160493829, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "home": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "id": "nlcs-unannounced-starter", "severity": "HIGH", "facts": "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence.", "resolution": "Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "Existing gates apply; no added arbitrary expected-score penalty.", "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "unresolved": true, "scope_rule": "Apply to both directions; do not silently lower frozen severity after viewing prices." }, { "id": "replacement-reference-conversion", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable.", "resolution": "Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero.", "effect_estimate": null, "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "unresolved": true, "scope_rule": "Apply to both directions; do not silently lower frozen severity after viewing prices." }, { "id": "mlb-model-disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Three registered engines disagree on score levels before price capture. Expected totals: Classic 8.846161, Primary 7.281819, Tighten Up ON 8.799383, Tighten Up OFF 8.799383. Signed home margins: Classic 0.151678, Primary -0.187615, Tighten Up ON -0.040123, Tighten Up OFF -0.040123. ON/OFF share arithmetic, not independent votes.", "resolution": "Preserve each frozen score; no averaging into another model. Apply market-specific opposition rule below after capture.", "effect_estimate": null, "unresolved": "CONDITIONAL_ON_DIRECTION_OPPOSITION", "markets": [ "moneyline", "run_line", "total" ], "scope_rule": "Using unchanged unrounded means and tolerance1e-9, count this one MEDIUM risk for a market if at least one registered engine favors each opposite direction. Moneyline: signs of home margins. Run line: signs of home margins plus captured average signed home line. Total: signs of totals minus captured average total. A zero/tie blocks unanimity but alone is not opposite-direction disagreement. No risk is counted for this category when all nonzero directions agree.", "tier_consequence": "Adds exactly one unresolved MEDIUM risk to each opposed market, regardless of model count. Two other unresolved MEDIUM risks plus this disagreement means three and market ineligible/PASS. Any existing HIGH risk independently prevents tier eligibility.", "no_added_score_penalty": true } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Milwaukee Brewers: October 15 final lineup and Milwaukee starter unannounced. Lastactual Vaughn DH/Lara RF vs Snell reference; Yelich/Frelick alternatives vs Glasnow, not confirmedinjury replacements. Both left- and right-handed starter scenarios now use an actual recent starting nine, verified opposing pitcher handedness and observed postseason plate appearances by slot. A mixed bullpen scenario preserves substitution opportunities without inventing a starter or innings split. Final confirmation remains a high availability risk. Los Angeles Dodgers: Actual Ohtani DH/Freeman 1 B retained; prior lingering limitations notnewabsences. Current 3 B/2 B choice depends on unnamed Milwaukee starter, final order pending. Both left- and right-handed starter scenarios now use an actual recent starting nine, verified opposing pitcher handedness and observed postseason plate appearances by slot. A mixed bullpen scenario preserves substitution opportunities without inventing a starter or innings split. Final confirmation remains a high availability risk.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current; home: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current. Primary uses 4951 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Full 2026 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean; no pitcher, park or lineup coefficient. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. Current batting-slot opportunity and bench branches are retained in the official reference-box ledger; unannounced lineups remain conditional.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Dodger Stadium; listed 2026-10-16T00:00Z. Official MLB matchup, time and postseason stage agree. Probable pitchers and batting opportunities reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401908033", "sport": "MLB", "away": "Milwaukee Brewers", "home": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "start_et": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "19", "fullName": "Dodger Stadium", "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "California" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "stage": 3, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 1, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Scheduled", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.300475+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-14&endDate=2026-10-15" ], "context": [ "Official MLB matchup, time and postseason stage agree. Probable pitchers and batting opportunities reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "previous_game": { "id": "401908032", "date": "2026-10-15T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "19", "fullName": "Dodger Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "California" } }, "away": "8", "away_name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "away_score": 6.0, "home": "19", "home_name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20741.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "previous_game": { "id": "401908032", "date": "2026-10-15T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "19", "fullName": "Dodger Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "California" } }, "away": "8", "away_name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "away_score": 6.0, "home": "19", "home_name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20741.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LOX/155,46/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:49.382487+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-14T19:52:28+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T17:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T18:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 86, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": -2.2222222222222223 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 12 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "NNE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T18:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 89, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 13 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "NNE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 85, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": -0.5555555555555556 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 14 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "NNE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 24, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 83, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": -0.5555555555555556 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 15 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "NNE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "official_event_id": 849810, "stage_label": "NL Championship Series Game 4" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:49.382487+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T19:52:28+00:00; periods: number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T17:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T18:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 86; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: -2.2222222222222223; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 12; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: NNE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T18:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 89; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 0; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 13; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: NNE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 85; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: -0.5555555555555556; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 14; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: NNE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 24; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 83; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: -0.5555555555555556; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 15; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: NNE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LOX/155,46/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:49.382487+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-14T19:52:28+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T17:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T18:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 86, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": -2.2222222222222223 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 12 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "NNE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T18:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 89, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 13 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "NNE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 85, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": -0.5555555555555556 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 14 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "NNE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 24, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 83, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": -0.5555555555555556 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 15 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "NNE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "id": "nlcs-unannounced-starter", "severity": "HIGH", "facts": "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence.", "resolution": "Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "Existing gates apply; no added arbitrary expected-score penalty.", "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "unresolved": true, "scope_rule": "Apply to both directions; do not silently lower frozen severity after viewing prices." }, { "id": "replacement-reference-conversion", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable.", "resolution": "Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero.", "effect_estimate": null, "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "unresolved": true, "scope_rule": "Apply to both directions; do not silently lower frozen severity after viewing prices." }, { "id": "mlb-model-disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Three registered engines disagree on score levels before price capture. Expected totals: Classic 8.846161, Primary 7.281819, Tighten Up ON 8.799383, Tighten Up OFF 8.799383. Signed home margins: Classic 0.151678, Primary -0.187615, Tighten Up ON -0.040123, Tighten Up OFF -0.040123. ON/OFF share arithmetic, not independent votes.", "resolution": "Preserve each frozen score; no averaging into another model. Apply market-specific opposition rule below after capture.", "effect_estimate": null, "unresolved": "CONDITIONAL_ON_DIRECTION_OPPOSITION", "markets": [ "moneyline", "run_line", "total" ], "scope_rule": "Using unchanged unrounded means and tolerance1e-9, count this one MEDIUM risk for a market if at least one registered engine favors each opposite direction. Moneyline: signs of home margins. Run line: signs of home margins plus captured average signed home line. Total: signs of totals minus captured average total. A zero/tie blocks unanimity but alone is not opposite-direction disagreement. No risk is counted for this category when all nonzero directions agree.", "tier_consequence": "Adds exactly one unresolved MEDIUM risk to each opposed market, regardless of model count. Two other unresolved MEDIUM risks plus this disagreement means three and market ineligible/PASS. Any existing HIGH risk independently prevents tier eligibility.", "no_added_score_penalty": true } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LOX/155,46/forecast/hourly", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/skc?size=small", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=200", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849811/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849812/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-14&endDate=2026-10-15", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2025&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2026&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/brewers-2026-nlcs-roster", "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/" ], "tu": { "id": "401908033", "sport": "MLB", "identity": { "id": "401908033", "date": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "19", "fullName": "Dodger Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "California" } }, "away": "8", "away_name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "19", "home_name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-mlb-v3-full-season", "formula": "Full 2026 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean; no pitcher, park or lineup coefficient", "away_score": 4.419753086419753, "home_score": 4.37962962962963, "unrounded_score": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "legacy_internal_rounded_score": [ 4.42, 4.38 ], "rounding_note": "Original arithmetic retained without premature storage rounding, as current four-model standard requires. Half-point display only.", "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 5.135802469135802, "pa": 3.814814814814815, "runs_for": 832, "runs_against": 618, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.944444444444445, "pa": 3.7037037037037037, "runs_for": 801, "runs_against": 600, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json" } }, "terms": {}, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 0 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.4197530864197532, 8.419753086419753 ], "home": [ 0.37962962962962976, 8.37962962962963 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=200", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\scoring\\slate-MLB.json", "sha256": "d3cfbbdd3c85809daf187b945a38d954d460ba29d4a3f1665340c34031ce3bdf" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-158.json", "sha256": "b48b96ad6b492dee71a8fbb0c322446b973456e60e252b7eb523bac63b9885b1" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-15-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-119.json", "sha256": "46c07118a160d3c10059580b85f4d40112a87b70fc540451027acf7008fb6edf" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Final decision-useful availability or its supported scoring impact unresolved; point model probabilities uncalibrated.", "resolved": false } ], "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 1.5, "minimum_total_buffer": 1.5, "maximum_tiers": 2, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 1, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated joint score distribution; probabilities withheld" }, "football_review": null, "football_supplement": null, "offensive_review": [ { "sport": "MLB", "event_id": 849810, "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "PRIOR_ACTUAL_REFERENCE_CONDITIONAL", "ordered_starters": [ { "slot": 1, "player_id": 694192, "player": "Jackson Chourio", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.666666666666667, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player_id": 668930, "player": "Brice Turang", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player_id": 661388, "player": "William Contreras", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player_id": 683734, "player": "Andrew Vaughn", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player_id": 641343, "player": "Jake Bauers", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player_id": 669003, "player": "Garrett Mitchell", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player_id": 806198, "player": "Cooper Pratt", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player_id": 800325, "player": "Luis Lara", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player_id": 687401, "player": "Joey Ortiz", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] } ], "empirical_slot_PA_by_stage": { "D": { "n_games": 4, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 5, 5, 5 ], "2": [ 4, 4, 5, 5 ], "3": [ 4, 4, 5, 5 ], "4": [ 4, 4, 5, 5 ], "5": [ 4, 4, 5, 4 ], "6": [ 4, 4, 4, 4 ], "7": [ 4, 4, 4, 4 ], "8": [ 4, 4, 4, 4 ], "9": [ 4, 4, 4, 4 ] } }, "L": { "n_games": 3, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 5, 5 ], "2": [ 4, 5, 4 ], "3": [ 4, 5, 4 ], "4": [ 4, 5, 4 ], "5": [ 4, 5, 4 ], "6": [ 4, 5, 4 ], "7": [ 3, 4, 4 ], "8": [ 3, 4, 4 ], "9": [ 3, 4, 4 ] } }, "R": { "n_games": 5, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 5, 5, 4, 4 ], "2": [ 4, 5, 5, 4, 4 ], "3": [ 4, 5, 5, 4, 4 ], "4": [ 4, 5, 5, 4, 4 ], "5": [ 4, 5, 5, 4, 4 ], "6": [ 4, 5, 5, 4, 4 ], "7": [ 3, 4, 4, 4, 4 ], "8": [ 3, 4, 4, 4, 3 ], "9": [ 3, 4, 4, 4, 3 ] } } }, "chosen_reference_stage": "L", "conditional_team_PA": 37.33333333333333, "opportunity_branches": [ { "incumbent": "Andrew Vaughn", "incumbent_id": 683734, "replacement": "Christian Yelich", "replacement_id": 592885, "slot": 4, "affected_PA": 4.333333333333333, "position_chain": "DH choice conditional againstGlasnowRHP", "status": "CONDITIONAL_NOT_CONFIRMED_ABSENCE", "offensive_adjustment": null, "calculation": "AffectedPA * regressedreplacementminusreference battingruns/PA; verified normalization/exactbaseline unavailable => unestimated, no OPS subtraction" }, { "incumbent": "Luis Lara", "incumbent_id": 800325, "replacement": "Sal Frelick", "replacement_id": 686217, "slot": 8, "affected_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "position_chain": "RF choice conditional", "status": "CONDITIONAL_NOT_CONFIRMED_ABSENCE", "offensive_adjustment": null, "calculation": "AffectedPA * regressedreplacementminusreference battingruns/PA; verified normalization/exactbaseline unavailable => unestimated, no OPS subtraction" } ], "opponent_starter": "Tyler Glasnow", "opponent_starter_hand": "R", "bullpen_hand_exposure": "Unconfirmed; starterhand notallgame", "conversion": "Unestimated missing verified normalization and exactbaseline exposure", "handedness_lineup_branches": [ { "scenario": "Conditional starting nine against RHP; prior actual evidence, not current confirmed order", "reference_game": 849812, "reference_date": "2026-10-12T21:00:00Z", "opponent_starter_id": 808967, "opponent_hand": "R", "ordered_starters": [ { "slot": 1, "player_id": 694192, "player": "Jackson Chourio", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.666666666666667, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player_id": 668930, "player": "Brice Turang", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player_id": 661388, "player": "William Contreras", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player_id": 641343, "player": "Jake Bauers", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player_id": 592885, "player": "Christian Yelich", "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player_id": 669003, "player": "Garrett Mitchell", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player_id": 806198, "player": "Cooper Pratt", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player_id": 686217, "player": "Sal Frelick", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player_id": 666152, "player": "David Hamilton", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] } ], "conditional_team_PA": 37.33333333333333, "sample_stage": "L postseason slot PA only; small 3game sample, separate from R andD", "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849812/boxscore" }, { "scenario": "Conditional starting nine against LHP; prior actual evidence, not current confirmed order", "reference_game": 849811, "reference_date": "2026-10-15T00:00:00Z", "opponent_starter_id": 605483, "opponent_hand": "L", "ordered_starters": [ { "slot": 1, "player_id": 694192, "player": "Jackson Chourio", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.666666666666667, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player_id": 668930, "player": "Brice Turang", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player_id": 661388, "player": "William Contreras", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player_id": 683734, "player": "Andrew Vaughn", "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player_id": 641343, "player": "Jake Bauers", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player_id": 669003, "player": "Garrett Mitchell", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player_id": 806198, "player": "Cooper Pratt", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player_id": 800325, "player": "Luis Lara", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player_id": 687401, "player": "Joey Ortiz", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] } ], "conditional_team_PA": 37.33333333333333, "sample_stage": "L postseason slot PA only; small 3game sample, separate from R andD", "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849811/boxscore" } ], "bullpen_transition_branch": { "scenario": "Starter-to-bullpen transition with mixed handedness", "pool": [ { "person": { "id": 683734, "fullName": "Andrew Vaughn", "link": "/api/v1/people/683734" }, "jerseyNumber": "28", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 158 }, { "person": { "id": 668930, "fullName": "Brice Turang", "link": "/api/v1/people/668930" }, "jerseyNumber": "2", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 158 }, { "person": { "id": 592885, "fullName": "Christian Yelich", "link": "/api/v1/people/592885" }, "jerseyNumber": "22", "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 158 }, { "person": { "id": 806198, "fullName": "Cooper Pratt", "link": "/api/v1/people/806198" }, "jerseyNumber": "12", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 158 }, { "person": { "id": 666152, "fullName": "David Hamilton", "link": "/api/v1/people/666152" }, "jerseyNumber": "6", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 158 }, { "person": { "id": 669003, "fullName": "Garrett Mitchell", "link": "/api/v1/people/669003" }, "jerseyNumber": "5", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 158 }, { "person": { "id": 596142, "fullName": "Gary S\u00e1nchez", "link": "/api/v1/people/596142" }, "jerseyNumber": "99", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 158 }, { "person": { "id": 694192, "fullName": "Jackson Chourio", "link": "/api/v1/people/694192" }, "jerseyNumber": "11", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 158 }, { "person": { "id": 641343, "fullName": "Jake Bauers", "link": "/api/v1/people/641343" }, "jerseyNumber": "9", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 158 }, { "person": { "id": 687401, "fullName": "Joey Ortiz", "link": "/api/v1/people/687401" }, "jerseyNumber": "3", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 158 }, { "person": { "id": 800325, "fullName": "Luis Lara", "link": "/api/v1/people/800325" }, "jerseyNumber": "18", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 158 }, { "person": { "id": 686217, "fullName": "Sal Frelick", "link": "/api/v1/people/686217" }, "jerseyNumber": "10", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 158 }, { "person": { "id": 661388, "fullName": "William Contreras", "link": "/api/v1/people/661388" }, "jerseyNumber": "24", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 158 } ], "allocation": "Pinch-hit substitution consumes the same batting slot PA; never creates extra PA. Unknown hand-duration share stays unestimated. Do not combine incompatible branches or double-count Muncy at1B and3B.", "expected_hand_mix": null, "numeric_effect": null } }, "reference_lineup": [ { "slot": 1, "player_id": 694192, "player": "Jackson Chourio", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.666666666666667, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player_id": 668930, "player": "Brice Turang", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player_id": 661388, "player": "William Contreras", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player_id": 683734, "player": "Andrew Vaughn", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player_id": 641343, "player": "Jake Bauers", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player_id": 669003, "player": "Garrett Mitchell", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player_id": 806198, "player": "Cooper Pratt", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player_id": 800325, "player": "Luis Lara", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player_id": 687401, "player": "Joey Ortiz", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "runs", "adjustment_units": "runs", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 4.347241512345679, 4.498919753086419 ], "Primary": [ 3.734716663556523, 3.5471021372203544 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "PASS_HIGH_AVAILABILITY_RISK_STARTER_PLAN_UNANNOUNCED", "sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849811/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849812/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/roster/active", "https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/brewers-2026-nlcs-roster" ], "findings": "October 15 final lineup and Milwaukee starter unannounced. Lastactual Vaughn DH/Lara RF vs Snell reference; Yelich/Frelick alternatives vs Glasnow, not confirmedinjury replacements. Both left- and right-handed starter scenarios now use an actual recent starting nine, verified opposing pitcher handedness and observed postseason plate appearances by slot. A mixed bullpen scenario preserves substitution opportunities without inventing a starter or innings split. Final confirmation remains a high availability risk.", "reference_date": "2026-10-15T00:00:00Z", "observed_reference_nine": [ { "player": { "id": 806198, "fullName": "Cooper Pratt", "link": "/api/v1/people/806198", "boxscoreName": "Pratt" }, "battingOrder": "700", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "stats": { "summary": "3-4 | R, SB", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 1, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 1, "runs": 1, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 0, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 3, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 4, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 1, "stolenBasePercentage": "1.000", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 4, "totalBases": 3, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 0, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "player": { "id": 687401, "fullName": "Joey Ortiz", "link": "/api/v1/people/687401", "boxscoreName": "Ortiz, J" }, "battingOrder": "900", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "stats": { "summary": "1-4 | K, RBI", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 1, "airOuts": 1, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 1, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 1, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 4, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 4, "totalBases": 1, "rbi": 1, "leftOnBase": 3, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 1 } }, { "player": { "id": 694192, "fullName": "Jackson Chourio", "link": "/api/v1/people/694192", "boxscoreName": "Chourio, J" }, "battingOrder": "100", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "stats": { "summary": "1-5 | HR, RBI, R", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 3, "airOuts": 1, "runs": 1, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 1, "strikeOuts": 0, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 1, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 5, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 5, "totalBases": 4, "rbi": 1, "leftOnBase": 1, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "5.00", "popOuts": 1, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "player": { "id": 641343, "fullName": "Jake Bauers", "link": "/api/v1/people/641343", "boxscoreName": "Bauers" }, "battingOrder": "500", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "stats": { "summary": "1-4 | HR, 2 K, 2 RBI", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 1, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 1, "runs": 1, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 1, "strikeOuts": 2, 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Megill", "fullLFMName": "Megill, Trevor J.", "strikeZoneTop": 3.567, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.8 }, { "id": 661388, "fullName": "William Contreras", "link": "/api/v1/people/661388", "firstName": "William", "lastName": "Contreras", "primaryNumber": "24", "birthDate": "1997-12-24", "currentAge": 28, "birthCity": "Puerto Cabello", "birthCountry": "Venezuela", "height": "5' 10\"", "weight": 217, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "useName": "William", "useLastName": "Contreras", "middleName": "Jesus", "boxscoreName": "Contreras, Wm", "gender": "M", "nameMatrilineal": "Castillo", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [ { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 87, "groundOuts": 39, "airOuts": 50, "doubles": 9, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 4, "strikeOuts": 29, "baseOnBalls": 21, "intentionalWalks": 4, "hits": 43, "hitByPitch": 1, "avg": ".272", "atBats": 158, "obp": ".355", "slg": ".405", "ops": ".760", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 5, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 693, "plateAppearances": 183, "totalBases": 64, "rbi": 21, "leftOnBase": 68, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 3, "babip": ".305", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.78", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "39.50" }, "team": { "id": 158, "name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "link": "/api/v1/teams/158" }, "player": { "id": 661388, "fullName": "William Contreras", "link": "/api/v1/people/661388", "firstName": "William", "lastName": "Contreras" }, "league": { "id": 104, "name": "National League", "link": "/api/v1/league/104" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vl", "description": "vs Left", "sortOrder": 73 }, "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" } }, { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 141, "groundOuts": 104, "airOuts": 135, "doubles": 18, "triples": 1, "homeRuns": 14, "strikeOuts": 65, "baseOnBalls": 40, "intentionalWalks": 2, "hits": 110, "hitByPitch": 3, "avg": ".270", "atBats": 408, "obp": ".335", "slg": ".422", "ops": ".757", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 8, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 1585, "plateAppearances": 457, "totalBases": 172, "rbi": 73, "leftOnBase": 196, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 6, "babip": ".287", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.77", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "29.14" }, "team": { "id": 158, "name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "link": "/api/v1/teams/158" }, "player": { "id": 661388, "fullName": "William Contreras", "link": "/api/v1/people/661388", "firstName": "William", "lastName": "Contreras" }, "league": { "id": 104, "name": "National League", "link": "/api/v1/league/104" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2020-07-24", "batSide": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "William Contreras", "nameSlug": "william-contreras-661388", "firstLastName": "William Contreras", "lastFirstName": "Contreras, William", "lastInitName": "Contreras, W", "initLastName": "W Contreras", "fullFMLName": "William Jesus Contreras", "fullLFMName": "Contreras, William Jesus", "strikeZoneTop": 3.13, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.58 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_NINE_SLOTS_PA_PLATOONS", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401908033", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 4.347241512345679, 4.498919753086419 ], "Primary": [ 3.734716663556523, 3.5471021372203544 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" }, "gap_resolution": "Required conditional comparison completed using both handedness branches and current roster; current final lineup remains unconfirmed. Registered aggregate score unaffected, incremental adjustment unestimated." }, { "sport": "MLB", "event_id": 849810, "team": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "PRIOR_ACTUAL_REFERENCE_CONDITIONAL", "ordered_starters": [ { "slot": 1, "player_id": 605141, "player": "Mookie Betts", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.666666666666667, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player_id": 518692, "player": "Freddie Freeman", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player_id": 606192, "player": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player_id": 663656, "player": "Kyle Tucker", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player_id": 681624, "player": "Andy Pages", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player_id": 660271, "player": "Shohei Ohtani", "position": { "code": "Y", "name": "Two-Way Player", "type": "Two-Way Player", "abbreviation": "TWP" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player_id": 669257, "player": "Will Smith", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player_id": 500743, "player": "Miguel Rojas", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player_id": 669242, "player": "Tommy Edman", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] } ], "empirical_slot_PA_by_stage": { "D": { "n_games": 4, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 4, 5, 4 ], "2": [ 4, 4, 5, 4 ], "3": [ 4, 4, 5, 4 ], "4": [ 4, 4, 4, 4 ], "5": [ 4, 4, 4, 4 ], "6": [ 4, 4, 4, 4 ], "7": [ 4, 4, 4, 4 ], "8": [ 4, 4, 4, 4 ], "9": [ 3, 4, 4, 3 ] } }, "L": { "n_games": 3, "slots": { "1": [ 5, 4, 5 ], "2": [ 4, 4, 4 ], "3": [ 4, 4, 4 ], "4": [ 4, 4, 4 ], "5": [ 4, 4, 4 ], "6": [ 4, 4, 4 ], "7": [ 4, 3, 4 ], "8": [ 4, 3, 4 ], "9": [ 4, 3, 4 ] } }, "R": { "n_games": 5, "slots": { "1": [ 5, 5, 4, 5, 5 ], "2": [ 5, 5, 4, 5, 5 ], "3": [ 5, 4, 4, 5, 5 ], "4": [ 5, 4, 4, 4, 5 ], "5": [ 4, 4, 4, 4, 5 ], "6": [ 4, 4, 4, 4, 5 ], "7": [ 4, 4, 3, 4, 5 ], "8": [ 4, 4, 3, 4, 5 ], "9": [ 4, 4, 3, 4, 4 ] } } }, "chosen_reference_stage": "L", "conditional_team_PA": 35.666666666666664, "opportunity_branches": [ { "incumbent": "Miguel Rojas", "incumbent_id": 500743, "replacement": "Max Muncy", "replacement_id": 571970, "slot": 8, "affected_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "position_chain": "3B choice vs unnamedMilwaukee starter", "status": "CONDITIONAL_NOT_CONFIRMED_ABSENCE", "offensive_adjustment": null, "calculation": "AffectedPA * regressedreplacementminusreference battingruns/PA; verified normalization/exactbaseline unavailable => unestimated, no OPS subtraction" }, { "incumbent": "Shohei Ohtani", "incumbent_id": 660271, "replacement": "Josue De Paula", "replacement_id": 800543, "slot": 6, "affected_PA": 4.0, "position_chain": "DH contingency only if material limitation", "status": "CONDITIONAL_NOT_CONFIRMED_ABSENCE", "offensive_adjustment": null, "calculation": "AffectedPA * regressedreplacementminusreference battingruns/PA; verified normalization/exactbaseline unavailable => unestimated, no OPS subtraction" }, { "incumbent": "Freddie Freeman", "incumbent_id": 518692, "replacement": "Max Muncy", "replacement_id": 571970, "slot": 2, "affected_PA": 4.0, "position_chain": "1B contingency; Muncy cannot also replaceRojas, nonadditive", "status": "CONDITIONAL_NOT_CONFIRMED_ABSENCE", "offensive_adjustment": null, "calculation": "AffectedPA * regressedreplacementminusreference battingruns/PA; verified normalization/exactbaseline unavailable => unestimated, no OPS subtraction" } ], "opponent_starter": "UNANNOUNCED", "opponent_starter_hand": "UNKNOWN", "bullpen_hand_exposure": "Unconfirmed; starterhand notallgame", "conversion": "Unestimated missing verified normalization and exactbaseline exposure", "handedness_lineup_branches": [ { "scenario": "Conditional starting nine against RHP; prior actual evidence, not current confirmed order", "reference_game": 849812, "reference_date": "2026-10-12T21:00:00Z", "opponent_starter_id": 701656, "opponent_hand": "R", "ordered_starters": [ { "slot": 1, "player_id": 605141, "player": "Mookie Betts", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.666666666666667, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player_id": 518692, "player": "Freddie Freeman", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player_id": 606192, "player": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player_id": 660271, "player": "Shohei Ohtani", "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player_id": 669257, "player": "Will Smith", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player_id": 571970, "player": "Max Muncy", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player_id": 681624, "player": "Andy Pages", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player_id": 663656, "player": "Kyle Tucker", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player_id": 669242, "player": "Tommy Edman", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] } ], "conditional_team_PA": 35.666666666666664, "sample_stage": "L postseason slot PA only; small 3game sample, separate from R andD", "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849812/boxscore" }, { "scenario": "Conditional starting nine against LHP; prior actual evidence, not current confirmed order", "reference_game": 849811, "reference_date": "2026-10-15T00:00:00Z", "opponent_starter_id": 688107, "opponent_hand": "L", "ordered_starters": [ { "slot": 1, "player_id": 605141, "player": "Mookie Betts", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.666666666666667, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player_id": 518692, "player": "Freddie Freeman", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player_id": 606192, "player": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player_id": 663656, "player": "Kyle Tucker", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player_id": 681624, "player": "Andy Pages", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player_id": 660271, "player": "Shohei Ohtani", "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player_id": 669257, "player": "Will Smith", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player_id": 500743, "player": "Miguel Rojas", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player_id": 669242, "player": "Tommy Edman", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] } ], "conditional_team_PA": 35.666666666666664, "sample_stage": "L postseason slot PA only; small 3game sample, separate from R andD", "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849811/boxscore" } ], "bullpen_transition_branch": { "scenario": "Starter-to-bullpen transition with mixed handedness", "pool": [ { "person": { "id": 681624, "fullName": "Andy Pages", "link": "/api/v1/people/681624" }, "jerseyNumber": "44", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 119 }, { "person": { "id": 571771, "fullName": "Enrique Hern\u00e1ndez", "link": "/api/v1/people/571771" }, "jerseyNumber": "8", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 119 }, { "person": { "id": 518692, "fullName": "Freddie Freeman", "link": "/api/v1/people/518692" }, "jerseyNumber": "5", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 119 }, { "person": { "id": 676439, "fullName": "Hunter Feduccia", "link": "/api/v1/people/676439" }, "jerseyNumber": "46", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 119 }, { "person": { "id": 800543, "fullName": "Josue De Paula", "link": "/api/v1/people/800543" }, "jerseyNumber": "95", "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 119 }, { "person": { "id": 663656, "fullName": "Kyle Tucker", "link": "/api/v1/people/663656" }, "jerseyNumber": "23", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 119 }, { "person": { "id": 571970, "fullName": "Max Muncy", "link": "/api/v1/people/571970" }, "jerseyNumber": "13", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 119 }, { "person": { "id": 500743, "fullName": "Miguel Rojas", "link": "/api/v1/people/500743" }, "jerseyNumber": "72", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 119 }, { "person": { "id": 605141, "fullName": "Mookie Betts", "link": "/api/v1/people/605141" }, "jerseyNumber": "50", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 119 }, { "person": { "id": 660271, "fullName": "Shohei Ohtani", "link": "/api/v1/people/660271" }, "jerseyNumber": "17", "position": { "code": "Y", "name": "Two-Way Player", "type": "Two-Way Player", "abbreviation": "TWP" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 119 }, { "person": { "id": 606192, "fullName": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "link": "/api/v1/people/606192" }, "jerseyNumber": "37", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 119 }, { "person": { "id": 669242, "fullName": "Tommy Edman", "link": "/api/v1/people/669242" }, "jerseyNumber": "25", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 119 }, { "person": { "id": 669257, "fullName": "Will Smith", "link": "/api/v1/people/669257" }, "jerseyNumber": "16", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "status": { "code": "A", "description": "Active" }, "parentTeamId": 119 } ], "allocation": "Pinch-hit substitution consumes the same batting slot PA; never creates extra PA. Unknown hand-duration share stays unestimated. Do not combine incompatible branches or double-count Muncy at1B and3B.", "expected_hand_mix": null, "numeric_effect": null } }, "reference_lineup": [ { "slot": 1, "player_id": 605141, "player": "Mookie Betts", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.666666666666667, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player_id": 518692, "player": "Freddie Freeman", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player_id": 606192, "player": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player_id": 663656, "player": "Kyle Tucker", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player_id": 681624, "player": "Andy Pages", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player_id": 660271, "player": "Shohei Ohtani", "position": { "code": "Y", "name": "Two-Way Player", "type": "Two-Way Player", "abbreviation": "TWP" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player_id": 669257, "player": "Will Smith", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player_id": 500743, "player": "Miguel Rojas", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player_id": 669242, "player": "Tommy Edman", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "runs", "adjustment_units": "runs", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 4.347241512345679, 4.498919753086419 ], "Primary": [ 3.734716663556523, 3.5471021372203544 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "PASS_HIGH_AVAILABILITY_RISK_STARTER_PLAN_UNANNOUNCED", "sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849811/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849812/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/roster/active", "https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/brewers-2026-nlcs-roster" ], "findings": "Actual Ohtani DH/Freeman 1 B retained; prior lingering limitations notnewabsences. Current 3 B/2 B choice depends on unnamed Milwaukee starter, final order pending. Both left- and right-handed starter scenarios now use an actual recent starting nine, verified opposing pitcher handedness and observed postseason plate appearances by slot. A mixed bullpen scenario preserves substitution opportunities without inventing a starter or innings split. Final confirmation remains a high availability risk.", "reference_date": "2026-10-15T00:00:00Z", "observed_reference_nine": [ { "player": { "id": 669257, "fullName": "Will Smith", "link": "/api/v1/people/669257", "boxscoreName": "Smith, W" }, "battingOrder": "700", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "stats": { "summary": "1-4 | 2B, K, 2 RBI", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 2, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 2, "runs": 0, "doubles": 1, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 1, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 1, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 4, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 4, "totalBases": 2, "rbi": 2, "leftOnBase": 3, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "player": { "id": 663656, "fullName": "Kyle Tucker", "link": "/api/v1/people/663656", "boxscoreName": "Tucker" }, "battingOrder": "400", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "stats": { "summary": "1-3 | BB, R", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 2, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 2, "runs": 1, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 0, "baseOnBalls": 1, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 1, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 3, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 4, "totalBases": 1, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 0, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "player": { "id": 518692, "fullName": "Freddie Freeman", "link": "/api/v1/people/518692", "boxscoreName": "Freeman, F" }, "battingOrder": "200", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "stats": { "summary": "0-4", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 2, "groundOuts": 1, "airOuts": 3, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 0, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 0, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 4, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 4, "totalBases": 0, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 3, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 1 } }, { "player": { "id": 669242, "fullName": "Tommy Edman", "link": "/api/v1/people/669242", "boxscoreName": "Edman" }, "battingOrder": "900", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "stats": { "summary": "0-4 | 2 K", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 2, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 2, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 2, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 0, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 4, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 4, "totalBases": 0, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 4, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "player": { "id": 660271, "fullName": "Shohei Ohtani", "link": "/api/v1/people/660271", "boxscoreName": "Ohtani" }, "battingOrder": "600", "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" }, "stats": { "summary": "1-2 | BB, HBP", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 1, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 0, "baseOnBalls": 1, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 1, "hitByPitch": 1, "atBats": 2, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 4, "totalBases": 1, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 1, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 1 } }, { "player": { "id": 606192, "fullName": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "link": "/api/v1/people/606192", "boxscoreName": "Hern\u00e1ndez, T" }, "battingOrder": "300", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "stats": { "summary": "0-3 | BB, K, R", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 2, "airOuts": 0, "runs": 1, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 1, "baseOnBalls": 1, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 0, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 3, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 4, "totalBases": 0, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 2, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "player": { "id": 681624, "fullName": "Andy Pages", "link": "/api/v1/people/681624", "boxscoreName": "Pages, A" }, "battingOrder": "500", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "stats": { "summary": "0-2 | K", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 1, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 1, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 1, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 0, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 2, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 2, "totalBases": 0, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 1, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "player": { "id": 605141, "fullName": "Mookie Betts", "link": "/api/v1/people/605141", "boxscoreName": "Betts" }, "battingOrder": "100", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "stats": { "summary": "1-5 | K", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 1, "groundOuts": 1, "airOuts": 2, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 1, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 1, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 5, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 5, "totalBases": 1, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 1, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 1 } }, { "player": { "id": 500743, "fullName": "Miguel Rojas", "link": "/api/v1/people/500743", "boxscoreName": "Rojas, M" }, "battingOrder": "800", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "stats": { "summary": "1-1 | BB", "gamesPlayed": 1, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 0, "airOuts": 0, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 0, "baseOnBalls": 1, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 1, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 1, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "plateAppearances": 2, "totalBases": 1, "rbi": 0, "leftOnBase": 0, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "-.--", "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 0 } } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 500743, 518692, 571771, 571970, 592779, 605141, 605483, 606192, 607192, 621242, 623465, 656945, 660271, 663460, 663656, 669242, 669257, 669373, 676439, 680736, 681624, 681911, 683618, 800543, 808963, 808967 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 676439, "player": "Hunter Feduccia", "team_id": 119, "team": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "gamesPlayed": 5, "atBats": 12, "triples": 0, "avg": ".333", "babip": ".400", "doubles": 0, "runs": 2, "sacBunts": 0, "hits": 4, "sacFlies": 0, "caughtStealing": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "rbi": 1, "stolenBases": 0, "obp": ".429", "baseOnBalls": 2, "hitByPitch": 0, "ops": ".762", "totalBases": 4, "groundIntoDoublePlay": 1, "plateAppearances": 14, "strikeOuts": 2, "homeRuns": 0, "slg": ".333", "singles": 4 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 660271, "player": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_id": 119, "team": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "gamesPlayed": 159, "atBats": 636, "triples": 7, "avg": ".310", "babip": ".336", "doubles": 38, "runs": 134, "sacBunts": 0, "hits": 197, "sacFlies": 5, "caughtStealing": 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"stage": "regular", "player_id": 663656, "player": "Kyle Tucker", "team_id": 117, "team": "Houston Astros", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "gamesPlayed": 78, "atBats": 277, "triples": 0, "avg": ".289", "babip": ".282", "doubles": 13, "runs": 56, "sacBunts": 0, "hits": 80, "sacFlies": 2, "caughtStealing": 0, "intentionalWalks": 3, "rbi": 49, "stolenBases": 11, "obp": ".408", "baseOnBalls": 56, "hitByPitch": 1, "ops": ".993", "totalBases": 162, "groundIntoDoublePlay": 5, "plateAppearances": 339, "strikeOuts": 54, "homeRuns": 23, "slg": ".585", "singles": 44 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 500743, "player": "Miguel Rojas", "team_id": 119, "team": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "gamesPlayed": 103, 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"source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "gamesPlayed": 116, "atBats": 403, "triples": 1, "avg": ".248", "babip": ".304", "doubles": 23, "runs": 65, "sacBunts": 0, "hits": 100, "sacFlies": 4, "caughtStealing": 2, "intentionalWalks": 0, "rbi": 46, "stolenBases": 1, "obp": ".305", "baseOnBalls": 29, "hitByPitch": 6, "ops": ".712", "totalBases": 164, "groundIntoDoublePlay": 8, "plateAppearances": 443, "strikeOuts": 108, "homeRuns": 13, "slg": ".407", "singles": 63 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 669257, "player": "Will Smith", "team_id": 119, "team": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "gamesPlayed": 128, "atBats": 476, "triples": 2, "avg": ".248", "babip": ".273", "doubles": 24, "runs": 77, "sacBunts": 0, "hits": 118, "sacFlies": 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119, "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "link": "/api/v1/teams/119" }, "player": { "id": 669242, "fullName": "Tommy Edman", "link": "/api/v1/people/669242", "firstName": "Thomas", "lastName": "Edman" }, "league": { "id": 104, "name": "National League", "link": "/api/v1/league/104" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vl", "description": "vs Left", "sortOrder": 73 }, "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" } }, { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 77, "groundOuts": 49, "airOuts": 61, "doubles": 8, "triples": 2, "homeRuns": 4, "strikeOuts": 41, "baseOnBalls": 13, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 50, "hitByPitch": 7, "avg": ".254", "atBats": 197, "obp": ".321", "slg": ".376", "ops": ".697", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 2, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 815, "plateAppearances": 221, "totalBases": 74, "rbi": 24, "leftOnBase": 80, "sacBunts": 3, "sacFlies": 1, "babip": ".301", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.80", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "49.25" }, "team": { "id": 119, "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "link": "/api/v1/teams/119" }, "player": { "id": 669242, "fullName": "Tommy Edman", "link": "/api/v1/people/669242", "firstName": "Thomas", "lastName": "Edman" }, "league": { "id": 104, "name": "National League", "link": "/api/v1/league/104" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2019-06-08", "batSide": { "code": "S", "description": "Switch" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Tommy Edman", "nameSlug": "tommy-edman-669242", "firstLastName": "Tommy Edman", "lastFirstName": "Edman, Tommy", "lastInitName": "Edman, T", "initLastName": "T Edman", "fullFMLName": "Thomas Hyunsu Edman", "fullLFMName": "Edman, Thomas Hyunsu", "strikeZoneTop": 3.102, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.566 }, { "id": 607192, "fullName": "Tyler Glasnow", "link": "/api/v1/people/607192", "firstName": "Tyler", "lastName": "Glasnow", "primaryNumber": "31", "birthDate": "1993-08-23", "currentAge": 33, "birthCity": "Newhall", "birthStateProvince": "CA", "birthCountry": "USA", "height": "6' 8\"", "weight": 225, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "1", "name": "Pitcher", "type": "Pitcher", "abbreviation": "P" }, "useName": "Tyler", "useLastName": "Glasnow", "middleName": "Allen", "boxscoreName": "Glasnow", "nickName": "Baby Giraffe", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "draftYear": 2011, "pronunciation": "GLASS-now", "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2016-07-07", "batSide": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Tyler Glasnow", "nameSlug": "tyler-glasnow-607192", "firstLastName": "Tyler Glasnow", "lastFirstName": "Glasnow, Tyler", "lastInitName": "Glasnow, T", "initLastName": "T Glasnow", "fullFMLName": "Tyler Allen Glasnow", "fullLFMName": "Glasnow, Tyler Allen", "strikeZoneTop": 3.567, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.8 }, { "id": 669257, "fullName": "Will Smith", "link": "/api/v1/people/669257", "firstName": "William", "lastName": "Smith", "primaryNumber": "16", "birthDate": "1995-03-28", "currentAge": 31, "birthCity": "Louisville", "birthStateProvince": "KY", "birthCountry": "USA", "height": "5' 10\"", "weight": 195, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "useName": "Will", "useLastName": "Smith", "middleName": "Dills", "boxscoreName": "Smith, W", "nickName": "Smitty", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": false, "draftYear": 2016, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [ { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 42, "groundOuts": 10, "airOuts": 28, "doubles": 1, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 2, "strikeOuts": 18, "baseOnBalls": 14, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 12, "hitByPitch": 1, "avg": ".176", "atBats": 68, "obp": ".325", "slg": ".279", "ops": ".604", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 386, "plateAppearances": 83, "totalBases": 19, "rbi": 5, "leftOnBase": 28, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "babip": ".208", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.36", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "34.00" }, "team": { "id": 119, "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "link": "/api/v1/teams/119" }, "player": { "id": 669257, "fullName": "Will Smith", "link": "/api/v1/people/669257", "firstName": "William", "lastName": "Smith" }, "league": { "id": 104, "name": "National League", "link": "/api/v1/league/104" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vl", "description": "vs Left", "sortOrder": 73 }, "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" } }, { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 68, "groundOuts": 28, "airOuts": 67, "doubles": 8, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 8, "strikeOuts": 27, "baseOnBalls": 20, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 49, "hitByPitch": 2, "avg": ".293", "atBats": 167, "obp": ".368", "slg": ".485", "ops": ".853", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 5, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 793, "plateAppearances": 193, "totalBases": 81, "rbi": 29, "leftOnBase": 78, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 4, "babip": ".301", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.42", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "20.88" }, "team": { "id": 119, "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "link": "/api/v1/teams/119" }, "player": { "id": 669257, "fullName": "Will Smith", "link": "/api/v1/people/669257", "firstName": "William", "lastName": "Smith" }, "league": { "id": 104, "name": "National League", "link": "/api/v1/league/104" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2019-05-28", "batSide": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Will Smith", "nameSlug": "will-smith-669257", "firstLastName": "Will Smith", "lastFirstName": "Smith, Will", "lastInitName": "Smith, W", "initLastName": "W Smith", "fullFMLName": "William Dills Smith", "fullLFMName": "Smith, William Dills", "strikeZoneTop": 3.138, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.583 }, { "id": 808967, "fullName": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "link": "/api/v1/people/808967", "firstName": "Yoshinobu", "lastName": "Yamamoto", "primaryNumber": "18", "birthDate": "1998-08-17", "currentAge": 28, "birthCity": "Bizen", "birthCountry": "Japan", "height": "5' 10\"", "weight": 176, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "1", "name": "Pitcher", "type": "Pitcher", "abbreviation": "P" }, "useName": "Yoshinobu", "useLastName": "Yamamoto", "boxscoreName": "Yamamoto", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": false, "pronunciation": "yo-SHE-no-boo ya-mah-moh-to", "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2024-03-21", "batSide": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "nameSlug": "yoshinobu-yamamoto-808967", "firstLastName": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "lastFirstName": "Yamamoto, Yoshinobu", "lastInitName": "Yamamoto, Y", "initLastName": "Y Yamamoto", "fullFMLName": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "fullLFMName": "Yamamoto, Yoshinobu ", "strikeZoneTop": 3.121, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.575 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_NINE_SLOTS_PA_PLATOONS", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401908033", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 4.347241512345679, 4.498919753086419 ], "Primary": [ 3.734716663556523, 3.5471021372203544 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" }, "gap_resolution": "Required conditional comparison completed using both handedness branches and current roster; current final lineup remains unconfirmed. Registered aggregate score unaffected, incremental adjustment unestimated." } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers", "market": { "id": "401908033", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401908033", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.604238+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.840262+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 136.0, "away_line_price": -164.0, "total": 7.5, "under_line": 7.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -161.0, "away_ml": 133.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 7.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.15167824074073977, "combined": 8.846161265432098, "spread_buffer": -1.3483217592592602, "total_difference": 1.346161265432098 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.15167824074073977, "combined": 8.846161265432098, "spread_buffer": -1.3483217592592602, "total_difference": 1.346161265432098 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.3483217592592602, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.34832175925926023, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 1, "unresolved_medium_risks": 1, "risk_ids": [ "nlcs-unannounced-starter", "replacement-reference-conversion" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers", "line": 1.5, "price": -164.0, "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.", "stressed_home_margin": 1.1516782407407398, "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.", "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.346161265432098, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.346161265432098, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 1, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "nlcs-unannounced-starter", "replacement-reference-conversion", "mlb-model-disagreement" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Over", "line": 7.5, "price": -105.0, "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.", "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.846161265432098, "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.", "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero.", "Three registered engines disagree on score levels before price capture. Expected totals: Classic 8.846161, Primary 7.281819, Tighten Up ON 8.799383, Tighten Up OFF 8.799383. Signed home margins: Classic 0.151678, Primary -0.187615, Tighten Up ON -0.040123, Tighten Up OFF -0.040123. ON/OFF share arithmetic, not independent votes. Preserve each frozen score; no averaging into another model. Apply market-specific opposition rule below after capture." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.18761452633616882, "combined": 7.281818800776877, "spread_buffer": -1.6876145263361688, "total_difference": -0.21818119922312285 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.18761452633616882, "combined": 7.281818800776877, "spread_buffer": -1.6876145263361688, "total_difference": -0.21818119922312285 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.6876145263361688, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.6876145263361688, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 1, "unresolved_medium_risks": 1, "risk_ids": [ "nlcs-unannounced-starter", "replacement-reference-conversion" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers", "line": 1.5, "price": -164.0, "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.", "stressed_home_margin": 0.8123854736638312, "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.", "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 0.21818119922312285, "base_floor_met": false, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": -0.7818188007768772, "same_side_after_one_run": false, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": false, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": false, "unresolved_high_risks": 1, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "nlcs-unannounced-starter", "replacement-reference-conversion", "mlb-model-disagreement" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "NO_EDGE", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Under", "line": 7.5, "price": -115.0, "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks do not all pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.", "stressed_total_one_run_only": 8.281818800776877, "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks do not all pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Classic/Primary remains provisional and not an authorized live publication configuration.", "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero.", "Three registered engines disagree on score levels before price capture. Expected totals: Classic 8.846161, Primary 7.281819, Tighten Up ON 8.799383, Tighten Up OFF 8.799383. Signed home margins: Classic 0.151678, Primary -0.187615, Tighten Up ON -0.040123, Tighten Up OFF -0.040123. ON/OFF share arithmetic, not independent votes. Preserve each frozen score; no averaging into another model. Apply market-specific opposition rule below after capture." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.04012345679012341, "combined": 8.799382716049383, "spread_buffer": -1.5401234567901234, "total_difference": 1.299382716049383 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.04012345679012341, "combined": 8.799382716049383, "spread_buffer": -1.5401234567901234, "total_difference": 1.299382716049383 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5, "base_buffer": 1.5401234567901234, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.5401234567901234, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 1, "unresolved_medium_risks": 1, "risk_ids": [ "nlcs-unannounced-starter", "replacement-reference-conversion" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers", "line": 1.5, "price": -164.0, "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Conservative ON does not promote unresolved medium availability risk and does not allow Free Picks.", "stressed_home_margin": 0.9598765432098766, "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Conservative ON does not promote unresolved medium availability risk and does not allow Free Picks.", "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5, "base_buffer": 1.299382716049383, "base_floor_met": false, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.29938271604938294, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": false, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 1, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "nlcs-unannounced-starter", "replacement-reference-conversion", "mlb-model-disagreement" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "NO_EDGE", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Over", "line": 7.5, "price": -105.0, "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks do not all pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Conservative ON does not promote unresolved medium availability risk and does not allow Free Picks.", "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.799382716049383, "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks do not all pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion. Conservative ON does not promote unresolved medium availability risk and does not allow Free Picks.", "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero.", "Three registered engines disagree on score levels before price capture. Expected totals: Classic 8.846161, Primary 7.281819, Tighten Up ON 8.799383, Tighten Up OFF 8.799383. Signed home margins: Classic 0.151678, Primary -0.187615, Tighten Up ON -0.040123, Tighten Up OFF -0.040123. ON/OFF share arithmetic, not independent votes. Preserve each frozen score; no averaging into another model. Apply market-specific opposition rule below after capture." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.04012345679012341, "combined": 8.799382716049383, "spread_buffer": -1.5401234567901234, "total_difference": 1.299382716049383 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.04012345679012341, "combined": 8.799382716049383, "spread_buffer": -1.5401234567901234, "total_difference": 1.299382716049383 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.5401234567901234, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.5401234567901234, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 1, "unresolved_medium_risks": 1, "risk_ids": [ "nlcs-unannounced-starter", "replacement-reference-conversion" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers", "line": 1.5, "price": -164.0, "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion.", "stressed_home_margin": 0.9598765432098766, "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion.", "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.299382716049383, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.29938271604938294, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "Frozen one-run case applied once; joint tail remains unestimated, not an extra invented penalty or bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 1, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "nlcs-unannounced-starter", "replacement-reference-conversion", "mlb-model-disagreement" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Over", "line": 7.5, "price": -105.0, "reason": "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion.", "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.799382716049383, "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Numerical base-buffer, one-run adverse and price checks pass. Frozen unresolved HIGH availability risk makes this market ineligible regardless of cushion.", "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence. Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable. Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero.", "Three registered engines disagree on score levels before price capture. Expected totals: Classic 8.846161, Primary 7.281819, Tighten Up ON 8.799383, Tighten Up OFF 8.799383. Signed home margins: Classic 0.151678, Primary -0.187615, Tighten Up ON -0.040123, Tighten Up OFF -0.040123. ON/OFF share arithmetic, not independent votes. Preserve each frozen score; no averaging into another model. Apply market-specific opposition rule below after capture." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401872995", "sport": "NFL", "identity": { "id": "401872995", "date": "2026-10-16T00:15Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3937", "fullName": "Empower Field at Mile High", "address": { "city": "Denver", "state": "CO", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "away": "26", "away_name": "Seattle Seahawks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "7", "home_name": "Denver Broncos", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "applied_delta": [ -3.0, -3.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Zach Charbonnet", "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "side": "away", "condition": "OUT/PUP official finalOct14", "replacement": "Emanuel Wilson", "isolated_score": [ 20.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "Jadarian Price", "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "side": "away", "condition": "IR official; unavailable", "replacement": "Emanuel Wilson", "isolated_score": [ 20.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "Pat Bryant", "team": "Denver Broncos", "side": "home", "condition": "IR October9 official", "replacement": "Troy Franklin", "isolated_score": [ 23.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 17, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.41176470588235, 17.176470588235293 ], "current_rates": [ 26.8, 21.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 17, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.58823529411765, 18.294117647058822 ], "current_rates": [ 19.4, 22.2 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null, "reason": "No comparable verified prospective cohort." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 10.03642764406272, 38.03642764406272 ], "home": [ 6.659717580213904, 34.65971758021391 ], "team_allowance": 14, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "applied_delta": [ -3.0, -3.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Zach Charbonnet", "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "side": "away", "condition": "OUT/PUP official finalOct14", "replacement": "Emanuel Wilson", "isolated_score": [ 19.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "Jadarian Price", "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "side": "away", "condition": "IR official; unavailable", "replacement": "Emanuel Wilson", "isolated_score": [ 19.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "Pat Bryant", "team": "Denver Broncos", "side": "home", "condition": "IR October9 official", "replacement": "Troy Franklin", "isolated_score": [ 22.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 557, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:15Z", "coefficient_sha256": "5df890220fd5553f9894f780bc752867d21993388fcdc0d2725155c925459d14" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null, "reason": "No comparable verified prospective cohort." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 10.03642764406272, 38.03642764406272 ], "home": [ 6.659717580213904, 34.65971758021391 ], "team_allowance": 14, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "applied_delta": [ -3.0, -3.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Zach Charbonnet", "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "side": "away", "condition": "OUT/PUP official finalOct14", "replacement": "Emanuel Wilson", "isolated_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "Jadarian Price", "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "side": "away", "condition": "IR official; unavailable", "replacement": "Emanuel Wilson", "isolated_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "Pat Bryant", "team": "Denver Broncos", "side": "home", "condition": "IR October9 official", "replacement": "Troy Franklin", "isolated_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 17, "points_for": 483.0, "points_against": 292.0, "off_drives": 193, "def_drives": 195, "off_drive_points": 447.0, "def_drive_points": 280.0, "pf": 28.41176470588235, "pa": 17.176470588235293, "off_dpg": 11.352941176470589, "def_dpg": 11.470588235294118, "off_ppd": 2.316062176165803, "def_ppd": 1.435897435897436 }, "2026": { "games": 5, "points_for": 134.0, "points_against": 105.0, "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 60, "off_drive_points": 134.0, "def_drive_points": 93.0, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 21.0, "off_dpg": 12.4, "def_dpg": 12.0, "off_ppd": 2.161290322580645, "def_ppd": 1.55 } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 17, "points_for": 401.0, "points_against": 311.0, "off_drives": 192, "def_drives": 193, "off_drive_points": 389.0, "def_drive_points": 309.0, "pf": 23.58823529411765, "pa": 18.294117647058822, "off_dpg": 11.294117647058824, "def_dpg": 11.352941176470589, "off_ppd": 2.0260416666666665, "def_ppd": 1.6010362694300517 }, "2026": { "games": 5, "points_for": 97.0, "points_against": 111.0, "off_drives": 55, "def_drives": 57, "off_drive_points": 91.0, "def_drive_points": 111.0, "pf": 19.4, "pa": 22.2, "off_dpg": 11.0, "def_dpg": 11.4, "off_ppd": 1.6545454545454545, "def_ppd": 1.9473684210526316 } } }, "terms": { "away": { "prior_matchup": 23.352941176470587, "current_matchup": 24.446519524617997, "expected_drives": 11.9, "score": 24.03642764406272 }, "home": { "prior_matchup": 20.38235294117647, "current_matchup": 18.426136363636363, "expected_drives": 11.5, "score": 20.659717580213904 } }, "caps": { "current_drive_rate": 0.625, "generic_four_to_six_game_cap": 0.5, "explicit_user_override": true, "authority": "MODEL-CALIBRATION-POLICY.json v2.1 nfl_october_4_audit_addendum.user_authorized_weight_override", "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null, "reason": "No comparable verified prospective cohort." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 10.03642764406272, 38.03642764406272 ], "home": [ 6.659717580213904, 34.65971758021391 ], "team_allowance": 14, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "applied_delta": [ -3.0, -3.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Zach Charbonnet", "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "side": "away", "condition": "OUT/PUP official finalOct14", "replacement": "Emanuel Wilson", "isolated_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "Jadarian Price", "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "side": "away", "condition": "IR official; unavailable", "replacement": "Emanuel Wilson", "isolated_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" }, { "player": "Pat Bryant", "team": "Denver Broncos", "side": "home", "condition": "IR October9 official", "replacement": "Troy Franklin", "isolated_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 17, "points_for": 483.0, "points_against": 292.0, "off_drives": 193, "def_drives": 195, "off_drive_points": 447.0, "def_drive_points": 280.0, "pf": 28.41176470588235, "pa": 17.176470588235293, "off_dpg": 11.352941176470589, "def_dpg": 11.470588235294118, "off_ppd": 2.316062176165803, "def_ppd": 1.435897435897436 }, "2026": { "games": 5, "points_for": 134.0, "points_against": 105.0, "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 60, "off_drive_points": 134.0, "def_drive_points": 93.0, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 21.0, "off_dpg": 12.4, "def_dpg": 12.0, "off_ppd": 2.161290322580645, "def_ppd": 1.55 } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 17, "points_for": 401.0, "points_against": 311.0, "off_drives": 192, "def_drives": 193, "off_drive_points": 389.0, "def_drive_points": 309.0, "pf": 23.58823529411765, "pa": 18.294117647058822, "off_dpg": 11.294117647058824, "def_dpg": 11.352941176470589, "off_ppd": 2.0260416666666665, "def_ppd": 1.6010362694300517 }, "2026": { "games": 5, "points_for": 97.0, "points_against": 111.0, "off_drives": 55, "def_drives": 57, "off_drive_points": 91.0, "def_drive_points": 111.0, "pf": 19.4, "pa": 22.2, "off_dpg": 11.0, "def_dpg": 11.4, "off_ppd": 1.6545454545454545, "def_ppd": 1.9473684210526316 } } }, "terms": { "away": { "prior_matchup": 23.352941176470587, "current_matchup": 24.446519524617997, "expected_drives": 11.9, "score": 24.03642764406272 }, "home": { "prior_matchup": 20.38235294117647, "current_matchup": 18.426136363636363, "expected_drives": 11.5, "score": 20.659717580213904 } }, "caps": { "current_drive_rate": 0.625, "generic_four_to_six_game_cap": 0.5, "explicit_user_override": true, "authority": "MODEL-CALIBRATION-POLICY.json v2.1 nfl_october_4_audit_addendum.user_authorized_weight_override", "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null, "reason": "No comparable verified prospective cohort." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 10.03642764406272, 38.03642764406272 ], "home": [ 6.659717580213904, 34.65971758021391 ], "team_allowance": 14, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver secondary and Seattle linebacker replacement effects remain unresolved", "detail": "Surtain and Hufanga are out, Moss is questionable, and Tyrice Knight replaces Drake Thomas. Coverage, pressure and field-position effects could change opponent scoring, but no supported point conversion exists. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "Seattle running-back overlap and Denver receiver materiality", "detail": "Test Seattle deductions of zero, three and six points and Denver deductions of zero and three points. The six-point Seattle endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads; it is not automatic injury headcount. Ordinary stress and high-risk gates still apply.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet OUT/PUP official finalOct14; Official Seattle reporting identifies Charbonnet and Price as the top two backs. Charbonnet had 135 carries for 569 yards and 42 receptions in 2024, then 184 carries for 730 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns in 2025. He has no current games while on PUP. Wilson has 73 carries for 251 yards; Holani has 26 for 77 plus 11 receptions for 76. Current team rates already include the absence; the additional human deduction is separately labeled.; Jadarian Price IR official; unavailable; Price established a lead role with 28 carries for 119 yards and seven targets in three games. The official coach update assigned the workload to Wilson and Holani after Price aggravated his chest injury. His 2024 and 2025 Notre Dame rows remain separate from NFL production. Price and Charbonnet share a replacement pool and rushing drives; their deductions are not automatically added. Denver Broncos: Pat Bryant IR October9 official; Bryant had nine catches for 133 yards and one touchdown on 12 targets in four games, compared with Franklin six targets in five games and Mims five in three. Bryant had 49 targets and 31 catches in 15 games in 2025. Humphrey was promoted when Bryant went on IR. Receiving work may move to Franklin, Mims, Humphrey, Waddle or Sutton; exact shares are unverified. Apply the material-receiver minus-three scenario, retaining a zero-deduction supporting-role sensitivity.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 17 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 17 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 557 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 37.5% prior PF/opponent PA matchup +62.5% current (offensive PPD +opponent defensive PPD)/2 times (offensive drives/game +opponent defensive drives/game)/2; home +1.5 unless neutral; no unsupported personnel/weather adjustment. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 17 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 17 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 557 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 37.5% prior PF/opponent PA matchup +62.5% current (offensive PPD +opponent defensive PPD)/2 times (offensive drives/game +opponent defensive drives/game)/2; home +1.5 unless neutral; no unsupported personnel/weather adjustment. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Registered baselines are unchanged. Isolated minus-three scenarios and joint overlap are explicit; Conservative ON/OFF use identical scoring arithmetic. Unestimated defensive pathways retain the relevant risk gate.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Empower Field at Mile High; listed 2026-10-16T00:15Z. Official Denver source states Seattle at Denver Thursday6:15PMMT =8:15PMET. Short-week rest and altitude are context, not invented score coefficients.", "details": { "event_id": "401872995", "sport": "NFL", "away": "Seattle Seahawks", "home": "Denver Broncos", "start_et": "2026-10-15T20:15:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T00:15Z", "venue": { "id": "3937", "fullName": "Empower Field at Mile High", "address": { "city": "Denver", "state": "CO", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 8:15 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 8:15 PM EDT" }, "isTBDFlex": false }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.196031+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/injury-report-cb-riley-moss-listed-as-questionable-for-thursday-night-football-vs-seahawks" ], "context": [ "Official Denver source states Seattle at Denver Thursday6:15PMMT =8:15PMET. Short-week rest and altitude are context, not invented score coefficients." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "previous_game": { "id": "401872992", "date": "2026-10-11T20:25Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3673", "fullName": "Lumen Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Seattle", "state": "WA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "25", "away_name": "San Francisco 49ers", "away_score": 32.0, "home": "26", "home_name": "Seattle Seahawks", "home_score": 29.0, "day": 20737.850694444445 }, "days_between_start_dates": 4, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Denver Broncos", "previous_game": { "id": "401872989", "date": "2026-10-11T20:05Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "7065", "fullName": "SoFi Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Inglewood", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "7", "away_name": "Denver Broncos", "away_score": 23.0, "home": "24", "home_name": "Los Angeles Chargers", "home_score": 17.0, "day": 20737.836805555555 }, "days_between_start_dates": 4, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOU/62,62/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:49.338554+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-14T18:47:28+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T18:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 51, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 1.1111111111111112 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 52 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "N", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 49, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0.5555555555555556 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 54 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "N", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 47, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0.5555555555555556 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 58 }, "windSpeed": "3 mph", "windDirection": "NW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 24, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 44, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 62 }, "windSpeed": "3 mph", "windDirection": "W", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 25, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 43, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 65 }, "windSpeed": "3 mph", "windDirection": "W", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "stage_label": "NFL regular season" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:49.338554+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T18:47:28+00:00; periods: number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T18:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 51; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 1.1111111111111112; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 52; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 49; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 0.5555555555555556; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 54; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 47; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 0.5555555555555556; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 58; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: NW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 24; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 44; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 0; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 62; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: W; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 25; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T23:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 43; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 0; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 65; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: W; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOU/62,62/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:49.338554+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-14T18:47:28+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T18:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 51, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 1.1111111111111112 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 52 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "N", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 49, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0.5555555555555556 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 54 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "N", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 47, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0.5555555555555556 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 58 }, "windSpeed": "3 mph", "windDirection": "NW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 24, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 44, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 62 }, "windSpeed": "3 mph", "windDirection": "W", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 25, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 43, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 65 }, "windSpeed": "3 mph", "windDirection": "W", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver secondary and Seattle linebacker replacement effects remain unresolved", "detail": "Surtain and Hufanga are out, Moss is questionable, and Tyrice Knight replaces Drake Thomas. Coverage, pressure and field-position effects could change opponent scoring, but no supported point conversion exists. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "Seattle running-back overlap and Denver receiver materiality", "detail": "Test Seattle deductions of zero, three and six points and Denver deductions of zero and three points. The six-point Seattle endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads; it is not automatic injury headcount. Ordinary stress and high-risk gates still apply.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOU/62,62/forecast/hourly", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz", "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2026.csv.gz", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=200", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/depthcharts", 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Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." } ] }, { "position": "TE", "chart": "3WR 1TE", "athletes": [ { "id": "4576297", "name": "AJ Barner", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "2975863", "name": "Eric Saubert", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4678006", "name": "Elijah Arroyo", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4569547", "name": "Nick Kallerup", "injuries": [] } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts", "comparisons": [ { "name": "AJ Barner", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4576297.json", "id": "4576297", "name": "AJ Barner", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4576297/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.774937+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.914687+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "30", "receivingTargets": "38", "receivingYards": "245", "yardsPerReception": "8.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "20", "receivingFirstDowns": "18", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "52", "receivingTargets": "68", "receivingYards": "519", "yardsPerReception": "10.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "61", "receivingFirstDowns": "26", "receivingFumbles": "2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "12", "receivingTargets": "20", "receivingYards": "122", "yardsPerReception": "10.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "32", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "10", "rushingYards": "14", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "2", "rushingFirstDowns": "9", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "1", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "1", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "69.4" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. 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Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. 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Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Nick Kallerup", "separate_league_season_team_records": [], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." } ] }, { "position": "RB", "chart": "3WR 1TE", "athletes": [ { "id": "4887558", "name": "Emanuel Wilson", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4429835", "name": "George Holani", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "5151317", "name": "Robert Henry Jr.", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4426385", "name": "Zach Charbonnet", "injuries": [ { "date": "2026-10-14T22:14Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "abbreviation": "O", "description": "out", "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT" }, "details": null } ] }, { "id": "4685512", "name": "Jadarian Price", "injuries": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:02Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "abbreviation": "IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR" }, "details": null } ] } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts", "comparisons": [ { "name": "Emanuel Wilson", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4887558.json", "id": "4887558", "name": "Emanuel Wilson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4887558/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.851671+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.012369+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "103", "rushingYards": "502", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "longRushing": "21", "rushingFirstDowns": "27", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "125", "rushingYards": "496", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "15", "rushingFirstDowns": "32", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "73", "rushingYards": "251", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "longRushing": "18", "rushingFirstDowns": "12", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "14", "receivingYards": "48", "yardsPerReception": "4.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "30", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "17", "receivingYards": "99", "yardsPerReception": "6.6", "receivingTouchdowns": 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Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "George Holani", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4429835.json", "id": "4429835", "name": "George Holani", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429835/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.851671+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.012369+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "10", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "8", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "rushingAttempts": "22", "rushingYards": "73", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "5", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "26", "rushingYards": "77", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "-1", "yardsPerReception": "-1.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "-1", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "2", "receivingYards": "15", "yardsPerReception": "7.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "11", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "76", "yardsPerReception": "6.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "14", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Robert Henry Jr.", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-5151317.json", "name": "Robert Henry Jr.", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5151317/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.557777+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2636", "teamSlug": "utsa-roadrunners", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "130", "rushingYards": "706", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "longRushing": "88" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2636", "teamSlug": "utsa-roadrunners", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "151", "rushingYards": "1,045", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "9", "longRushing": "76" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2636", "teamSlug": "utsa-roadrunners", "stats": { "receptions": "21", "receivingYards": "199", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "61" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2636", "teamSlug": "utsa-roadrunners", "stats": { "receptions": "18", "receivingYards": "114", "yardsPerReception": "6.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "74" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. 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Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. 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Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." }, { "file": "college-stats-4685512.json", "name": "Jadarian Price", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4685512/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.557777+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "120", "rushingYards": "746", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "longRushing": "70" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "113", "rushingYards": "674", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "11", "longRushing": "58" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "10", "yardsPerReception": "2.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "receptions": "6", "receivingYards": "87", "yardsPerReception": "14.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "35" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." } ] } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "WR", "chart": "3WR 1TE", "athletes": [ { "id": "4430878", "name": "Jaxon Smith-Njigba", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4597703", "name": "Tory Horton", "injuries": [] } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts", "comparisons": [ { "name": "Jaxon Smith-Njigba", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4430878.json", "id": "4430878", "name": "Jaxon Smith-Njigba", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4430878/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.599121+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.725598+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": 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Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Jake Bobo", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4360405.json", "id": "4360405", "name": "Jake Bobo", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4360405/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.615184+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.774937+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "13", "receivingTargets": "17", "receivingYards": "107", "yardsPerReception": "8.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "15", "receivingFirstDowns": "8", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "2", "receivingYards": "20", "yardsPerReception": "10.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "17", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. 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Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." } ] }, { "position": "QB", "chart": "3WR 1TE", "athletes": [ { "id": "3912547", "name": "Sam Darnold", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "3924327", "name": "Drew Lock", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4432734", "name": "Jalen Milroe", "injuries": [] } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts", "comparisons": [ { "name": "Sam Darnold", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-3912547.json", "id": "3912547", "name": "Sam Darnold", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3912547/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.757277+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.930327+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "361", "passingAttempts": "545", "completionPct": "66.2", "passingYards": "4,319", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "7.9", "passingTouchdowns": "35", "interceptions": "12", "longPassing": "97", "sacks": "48", "QBRating": "102.5", "adjQBR": "57.3" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "323", "passingAttempts": "477", "completionPct": "67.7", "passingYards": "4,048", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "8.5", "passingTouchdowns": "25", "interceptions": "14", "longPassing": "67", "sacks": "27", "QBRating": "99.1", "adjQBR": "55.6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "63", "passingAttempts": "98", "completionPct": "64.3", "passingYards": "755", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "7.7", "passingTouchdowns": "7", "interceptions": "5", "longPassing": "38", "sacks": "9", "QBRating": "90.3", "adjQBR": "34.4" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "67", "rushingYards": "212", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "19", "rushingFirstDowns": "23", "rushingFumbles": "3", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "35", "rushingYards": "95", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "24", "rushingFirstDowns": "10", "rushingFumbles": "3", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "5", "rushingYards": "16", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "8", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "35", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "25", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "0", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "7", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "0", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "0" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Drew Lock", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-3924327.json", "id": "3924327", "name": "Drew Lock", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3924327/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.774937+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.961795+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "completions": "107", "passingAttempts": "181", "completionPct": "59.1", "passingYards": "1,071", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "5.9", "passingTouchdowns": "6", "interceptions": "5", "longPassing": "59", "sacks": "12", "QBRating": "75.5", "adjQBR": "43.0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "2", "passingAttempts": "3", "completionPct": "66.7", "passingYards": "15", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "5.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "11", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "78.5", "adjQBR": "5.6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "35", "passingAttempts": "48", "completionPct": "72.9", "passingYards": "422", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "8.8", "passingTouchdowns": "4", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "82", "sacks": "2", "QBRating": "127.3", "adjQBR": "84.8" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "rushingAttempts": "18", "rushingYards": "133", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "7.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "longRushing": "28", "rushingFirstDowns": "9", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "6", "rushingYards": "-5", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-0.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "0", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "13", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "14", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "passingTouchdowns": "6", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "passingTouchdowns": "4", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "0", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "0" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Jalen Milroe", "separate_league_season_team_records": [], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." } ] }, { "position": "TE", "chart": "3WR 1TE", "athletes": [ { "id": "4576297", "name": "AJ Barner", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "2975863", "name": "Eric Saubert", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4678006", "name": "Elijah Arroyo", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4569547", "name": "Nick Kallerup", "injuries": [] } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts", "comparisons": [ { "name": "AJ Barner", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4576297.json", "id": "4576297", "name": "AJ Barner", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4576297/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.774937+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.914687+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "30", "receivingTargets": "38", "receivingYards": "245", "yardsPerReception": "8.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "20", "receivingFirstDowns": "18", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "52", "receivingTargets": "68", "receivingYards": "519", "yardsPerReception": "10.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "61", "receivingFirstDowns": "26", "receivingFumbles": "2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "12", "receivingTargets": "20", "receivingYards": "122", "yardsPerReception": "10.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "32", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "10", "rushingYards": "14", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "2", "rushingFirstDowns": "9", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "1", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "1", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "69.4" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Eric Saubert", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-2975863.json", "id": "2975863", "name": "Eric Saubert", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/2975863/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.851671+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.012369+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "14", "receivingYards": "97", "yardsPerReception": "8.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "20", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "31", "yardsPerReception": "7.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "12", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "3", "yardsPerReception": "1.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "13", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "0", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "2" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Elijah Arroyo", "separate_league_season_team_records": [], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Nick Kallerup", "separate_league_season_team_records": [], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." } ] }, { "position": "RB", "chart": "3WR 1TE", "athletes": [ { "id": "4887558", "name": "Emanuel Wilson", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4429835", "name": "George Holani", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "5151317", "name": "Robert Henry Jr.", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4426385", "name": "Zach Charbonnet", "injuries": [ { "date": "2026-10-14T22:14Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "abbreviation": "O", "description": "out", "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT" }, "details": null } ] }, { "id": "4685512", "name": "Jadarian Price", "injuries": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:02Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "abbreviation": "IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR" }, "details": null } ] } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts", "comparisons": [ { "name": "Emanuel Wilson", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4887558.json", "id": "4887558", "name": "Emanuel Wilson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4887558/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.851671+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.012369+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "103", "rushingYards": "502", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "longRushing": "21", "rushingFirstDowns": "27", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "125", "rushingYards": "496", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "15", "rushingFirstDowns": "32", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "73", "rushingYards": "251", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "longRushing": "18", "rushingFirstDowns": "12", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "14", "receivingYards": "48", "yardsPerReception": "4.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "30", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "17", "receivingYards": "99", "yardsPerReception": "6.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "25", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "50", "yardsPerReception": "10.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "20" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "George Holani", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4429835.json", "id": "4429835", "name": "George Holani", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429835/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.851671+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.012369+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "10", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "8", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "rushingAttempts": "22", "rushingYards": "73", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "5", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "26", "rushingYards": "77", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "-1", "yardsPerReception": "-1.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "-1", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "2", "receivingYards": "15", "yardsPerReception": "7.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "11", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "76", "yardsPerReception": "6.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "14", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Robert Henry Jr.", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-5151317.json", "name": "Robert Henry Jr.", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5151317/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.557777+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2636", "teamSlug": "utsa-roadrunners", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "130", "rushingYards": "706", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "longRushing": "88" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2636", "teamSlug": "utsa-roadrunners", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "151", "rushingYards": "1,045", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "9", "longRushing": "76" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2636", "teamSlug": "utsa-roadrunners", "stats": { "receptions": "21", "receivingYards": "199", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "61" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2636", "teamSlug": "utsa-roadrunners", "stats": { "receptions": "18", "receivingYards": "114", "yardsPerReception": "6.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "74" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Zach Charbonnet", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4426385.json", "id": "4426385", "name": "Zach Charbonnet", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4426385/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.851671+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.012369+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "135", "rushingYards": "569", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "8", "longRushing": "51", "rushingFirstDowns": "32", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "184", "rushingYards": "730", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "12", "longRushing": "30", "rushingFirstDowns": "48", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "42", "receivingTargets": "52", "receivingYards": "340", "yardsPerReception": "8.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "32", "receivingFirstDowns": "8", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "20", "receivingTargets": "24", "receivingYards": "144", "yardsPerReception": "7.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "21", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "9", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "54" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "12", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "12", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "74" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Jadarian Price", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4685512.json", "id": "4685512", "name": "Jadarian Price", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4685512/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.583429+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.725598+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "28", "rushingYards": "119", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "25", "rushingFirstDowns": "8", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "21", "yardsPerReception": "5.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." }, { "file": "college-stats-4685512.json", "name": "Jadarian Price", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4685512/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.557777+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "120", "rushingYards": "746", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "longRushing": "70" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "113", "rushingYards": "674", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "11", "longRushing": "58" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "10", "yardsPerReception": "2.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "receptions": "6", "receivingYards": "87", "yardsPerReception": "14.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "35" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." } ] } ], "reference_lineup": "Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp and receiving tight ends AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo have no final game designation. Smith-Njigba and George Holani are cleared. Jake Bobo is a reserve on injured reserve; no additional main-receiver deduction.", "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Zach Charbonnet", "pos": "RB", "conditional": false, "status": "OUT/PUP official finalOct14", "pool": [ "Emanuel Wilson", "George Holani", "Robert Henry Jr." ], "basis": "Official Seattle reporting identifies Charbonnet and Price as the top two backs. Charbonnet had 135 carries for 569 yards and 42 receptions in 2024, then 184 carries for 730 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns in 2025. He has no current games while on PUP. Wilson has 73 carries for 251 yards; Holani has 26 for 77 plus 11 receptions for 76. Current team rates already include the absence; the additional human deduction is separately labeled.", "familiarity": "Charbonnet and Holani have prior Seattle experience. Wilson joined March 13 and has five current games. Henry signed last week and was inactive October 11. Future workload fractions and Henry active status are not assumed.", "sources": [ "sea-injury", "sea-rb-role", "career-zach-charbonnet", "career-emanuel-wilson", "career-george-holani" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 } }, "comparison": [ { "name": "Zach Charbonnet", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4426385.json", "id": "4426385", "name": "Zach Charbonnet", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4426385/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.851671+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.012369+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "135", "rushingYards": "569", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "8", "longRushing": "51", "rushingFirstDowns": "32", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "184", "rushingYards": "730", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "12", "longRushing": "30", "rushingFirstDowns": "48", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "42", "receivingTargets": "52", "receivingYards": "340", "yardsPerReception": "8.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "32", "receivingFirstDowns": "8", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "20", "receivingTargets": "24", "receivingYards": "144", "yardsPerReception": "7.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "21", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "9", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "54" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "12", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "12", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "74" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Emanuel Wilson", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4887558.json", "id": "4887558", "name": "Emanuel Wilson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4887558/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.851671+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.012369+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "103", "rushingYards": "502", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "longRushing": "21", "rushingFirstDowns": "27", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "125", "rushingYards": "496", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "15", "rushingFirstDowns": "32", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "73", "rushingYards": "251", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "longRushing": "18", "rushingFirstDowns": "12", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "14", "receivingYards": "48", "yardsPerReception": "4.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "30", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "17", "receivingYards": "99", "yardsPerReception": "6.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "25", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "50", "yardsPerReception": "10.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "20" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "George Holani", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4429835.json", "id": "4429835", "name": "George Holani", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429835/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.851671+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.012369+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "10", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "8", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "rushingAttempts": "22", "rushingYards": "73", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "5", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "26", "rushingYards": "77", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "-1", "yardsPerReception": "-1.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "-1", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "2", "receivingYards": "15", "yardsPerReception": "7.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "11", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "76", "yardsPerReception": "6.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "14", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Robert Henry Jr.", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-5151317.json", "name": "Robert Henry Jr.", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5151317/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.557777+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2636", "teamSlug": "utsa-roadrunners", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "130", "rushingYards": "706", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "longRushing": "88" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2636", "teamSlug": "utsa-roadrunners", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "151", "rushingYards": "1,045", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "9", "longRushing": "76" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2636", "teamSlug": "utsa-roadrunners", "stats": { "receptions": "21", "receivingYards": "199", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "61" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2636", "teamSlug": "utsa-roadrunners", "stats": { "receptions": "18", "receivingYards": "114", "yardsPerReception": "6.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "74" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." } ], "source_urls": [ "https://www.seahawks.com/news/week-6-injury-report-seahawks-at-broncos", "https://www.seahawks.com/news/rb-zach-charbonnet-not-expected-to-make-return-for-seahawks-week-6-game-at-denver", "https://www.seahawks.com/team/players-roster/zach-charbonnet/career", "https://www.seahawks.com/team/players-roster/emanuel-wilson/career", "https://www.seahawks.com/team/players-roster/george-holani/career" ], "incremental_effect": "Unestimated incremental statistical effect. Preserve the registered baseline, which already includes some affected games. The human deduction is an additional labeled assumption, not a measured loss or a three-point cap.", "state": "OUT/PUP official finalOct14", "position": "RB", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Emanuel Wilson", "replacement_pool": [ "Emanuel Wilson", "George Holani", "Robert Henry Jr." ], "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Official Seattle reporting identifies Charbonnet and Price as the top two backs. Charbonnet had 135 carries for 569 yards and 42 receptions in 2024, then 184 carries for 730 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns in 2025. He has no current games while on PUP. Wilson has 73 carries for 251 yards; Holani has 26 for 77 plus 11 receptions for 76. Current team rates already include the absence; the additional human deduction is separately labeled.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "adjusted": [ 20.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ] }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "adjusted": [ 19.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ] }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "adjusted": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ] }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "adjusted": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ] } }, "scenario_id": "401872995-away-zach-charbonnet", "human_deduction": -3 }, { "player": "Jadarian Price", "pos": "RB", "conditional": false, "status": "IR official; unavailable", "pool": [ "Emanuel Wilson", "George Holani", "Robert Henry Jr." ], "basis": "Price established a lead role with 28 carries for 119 yards and seven targets in three games. The official coach update assigned the workload to Wilson and Holani after Price aggravated his chest injury. His 2024 and 2025 Notre Dame rows remain separate from NFL production. Price and Charbonnet share a replacement pool and rushing drives; their deductions are not automatically added.", "familiarity": "Price had summer practice and three current Seattle games. Wilson and Holani have demonstrated current replacement work. Henry is a new arrival without a guaranteed active role or share.", "sources": [ "sea-price", "sea-rb-role", "sea-transactions", "career-jadarian-price" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 } }, "comparison": [ { "name": "Jadarian Price", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4685512.json", "id": "4685512", "name": "Jadarian Price", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4685512/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.583429+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.725598+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "28", "rushingYards": "119", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "25", "rushingFirstDowns": "8", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "21", "yardsPerReception": "5.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." }, { "file": "college-stats-4685512.json", "name": "Jadarian Price", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4685512/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.557777+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "120", "rushingYards": "746", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "longRushing": "70" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "113", "rushingYards": "674", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "11", "longRushing": "58" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "10", "yardsPerReception": "2.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "receptions": "6", "receivingYards": "87", "yardsPerReception": "14.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "35" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Emanuel Wilson", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4887558.json", "id": "4887558", "name": "Emanuel Wilson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4887558/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.851671+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.012369+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "103", "rushingYards": "502", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "longRushing": "21", "rushingFirstDowns": "27", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "125", "rushingYards": "496", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "15", "rushingFirstDowns": "32", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "73", "rushingYards": "251", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "longRushing": "18", "rushingFirstDowns": "12", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "14", "receivingYards": "48", "yardsPerReception": "4.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "30", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "17", "receivingYards": "99", "yardsPerReception": "6.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "25", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "50", "yardsPerReception": "10.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "20" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "George Holani", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4429835.json", "id": "4429835", "name": "George Holani", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429835/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:46.851671+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.012369+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "10", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "8", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "rushingAttempts": "22", "rushingYards": "73", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "5", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "26", "rushingYards": "77", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "-1", "yardsPerReception": "-1.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "-1", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "2", "receivingYards": "15", "yardsPerReception": "7.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "11", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "76", "yardsPerReception": "6.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "14", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Robert Henry Jr.", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "college-stats-5151317.json", "name": "Robert Henry Jr.", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5151317/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.557777+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2636", "teamSlug": "utsa-roadrunners", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "130", "rushingYards": "706", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "longRushing": "88" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2636", "teamSlug": "utsa-roadrunners", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "151", "rushingYards": "1,045", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "9", "longRushing": "76" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2636", "teamSlug": "utsa-roadrunners", "stats": { "receptions": "21", "receivingYards": "199", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "61" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2636", "teamSlug": "utsa-roadrunners", "stats": { "receptions": "18", "receivingYards": "114", "yardsPerReception": "6.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "74" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." } ], "source_urls": [ "https://www.seahawks.com/news/jadarian-price-out-after-aggravating-chest-injury-other-seahawks-injury-updates", "https://www.seahawks.com/news/rb-zach-charbonnet-not-expected-to-make-return-for-seahawks-week-6-game-at-denver", "https://www.seahawks.com/team/transactions/", "https://www.seahawks.com/team/players-roster/jadarian-price/career" ], "incremental_effect": "Unestimated incremental statistical effect. Preserve the registered baseline, which already includes some affected games. The human deduction is an additional labeled assumption, not a measured loss or a three-point cap.", "state": "IR official; unavailable", "position": "RB", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Emanuel Wilson", "replacement_pool": [ "Emanuel Wilson", "George Holani", "Robert Henry Jr." ], "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Price established a lead role with 28 carries for 119 yards and seven targets in three games. The official coach update assigned the workload to Wilson and Holani after Price aggravated his chest injury. His 2024 and 2025 Notre Dame rows remain separate from NFL production. Price and Charbonnet share a replacement pool and rushing drives; their deductions are not automatically added.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "adjusted": [ 20.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ] }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "adjusted": [ 19.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ] }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "adjusted": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ] }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "adjusted": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ] } }, "scenario_id": "401872995-away-jadarian-price", "human_deduction": -3 } ], "joint_scenario": { "branches": [ { "included_players": [], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ] }, "name": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Jadarian Price" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 20.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 19.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ] }, "name": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Zach Charbonnet" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 20.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 19.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ] }, "name": "Zach Charbonnet \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Zach Charbonnet", "Jadarian Price" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 20.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 19.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ] }, "name": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Zach Charbonnet", "Jadarian Price" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "distinct workload adverse endpoint", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 17.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 16.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ] }, "name": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint" } ], "production_deduction": -3 }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp and receiving tight ends AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo have no final game designation. Smith-Njigba and George Holani are cleared. Jake Bobo is a reserve on injured reserve; no additional main-receiver deduction.", "status": "REVIEWED WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL LIMITATIONS" }, { "team": "Denver Broncos", "side": "home", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "chart": "3WR 1TE", "athletes": [ { "id": "4372016", "name": "Jaylen Waddle", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4686472", "name": "Marvin Mims Jr.", "injuries": [] } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/depthcharts", "comparisons": [ { "name": "Jaylen Waddle", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4372016.json", "id": "4372016", "name": "Jaylen Waddle", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4372016/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.275461+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.426097+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "58", "receivingTargets": "83", "receivingYards": "744", "yardsPerReception": "12.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "63", "receivingFirstDowns": "38", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "64", "receivingTargets": "100", "receivingYards": "910", "yardsPerReception": "14.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "46", "receivingFirstDowns": "48", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "18", "receivingTargets": "31", "receivingYards": "204", "yardsPerReception": "11.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "49", "receivingFirstDowns": "9", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "4", "rushingYards": "12", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "6", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "28", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "14.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "21", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "23", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "11.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "14", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "1", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "100.0", "passingYards": "8", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "8.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "8", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "100.0", "adjQBR": "0.1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "2", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "16" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "36" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "8" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Marvin Mims Jr.", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4686472.json", "id": "4686472", "name": "Marvin Mims Jr.", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4686472/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.189553+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.375535+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "39", "receivingTargets": "52", "receivingYards": "503", "yardsPerReception": "12.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "93", "receivingFirstDowns": "14", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "37", "receivingTargets": "51", "receivingYards": "322", "yardsPerReception": "8.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "31", "receivingFirstDowns": "14", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "5", "receivingYards": "16", "yardsPerReception": "5.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "10", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "13", "rushingYards": "42", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "17", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "12", "rushingYards": "78", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "16", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "3", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "3", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "36" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. 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Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." } ] }, { "position": "WR", "chart": "3WR 1TE", "athletes": [ { "id": "4431280", "name": "Troy Franklin", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4600981", "name": "Pat Bryant", "injuries": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T21:47Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "abbreviation": "IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR" }, "details": null } ] } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/depthcharts", "comparisons": [ { "name": "Troy Franklin", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4431280.json", "id": "4431280", "name": "Troy Franklin", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4431280/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.315782+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.441758+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "28", "receivingTargets": "53", "receivingYards": "263", "yardsPerReception": "9.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "30", "receivingFirstDowns": "11", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "65", "receivingTargets": "104", "receivingYards": "709", "yardsPerReception": "10.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "48", "receivingFirstDowns": "32", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "64", "yardsPerReception": "16.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "27", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "8", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "5", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "5", "rushingYards": "12", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "11", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "5", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "5", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "3", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. 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Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." } ] }, { "position": "QB", "chart": "3WR 1TE", "athletes": [ { "id": "4426338", "name": "Bo Nix", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "3892775", "name": "Jarrett Stidham", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4241820", "name": "Sam Ehlinger", "injuries": [] } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/depthcharts", "comparisons": [ { "name": "Bo Nix", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4426338.json", "id": "4426338", "name": "Bo Nix", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4426338/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.451529+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.599321+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "376", "passingAttempts": "567", "completionPct": "66.3", "passingYards": "3,775", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "6.7", "passingTouchdowns": "29", "interceptions": "12", "longPassing": "93", "sacks": "24", "QBRating": "93.3", "adjQBR": "53.5" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "388", "passingAttempts": "612", "completionPct": "63.4", "passingYards": "3,931", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "6.4", "passingTouchdowns": "25", "interceptions": "11", "longPassing": "52", "sacks": "22", "QBRating": "87.8", "adjQBR": "58.3" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "97", "passingAttempts": "162", "completionPct": "59.9", "passingYards": "942", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "5.8", "passingTouchdowns": "6", "interceptions": "3", "longPassing": "49", "sacks": "6", "QBRating": "80.8", "adjQBR": "41.5" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "92", "rushingYards": "430", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "longRushing": "32", "rushingFirstDowns": "41", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "83", "rushingYards": "356", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "5", "longRushing": "25", "rushingFirstDowns": "25", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "18", "rushingYards": "35", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "8", "rushingFirstDowns": "6", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "2", "yardsPerReception": "2.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "2", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "0", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "0", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "29", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "25", "rushingTouchdowns": "5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "6", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. 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Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." } ] }, { "position": "TE", "chart": "3WR 1TE", "athletes": [ { "id": "3051876", "name": "Evan Engram", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "3911853", "name": "Adam Trautman", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4383440", "name": "Nate Adkins", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "5159802", "name": "Dallen Bentley", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4432208", "name": "Caleb Lohner", "injuries": [ { "date": "2026-08-31T16:50Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "abbreviation": "IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR" }, "details": null } ] } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/depthcharts", "comparisons": [ { "name": "Evan Engram", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-3051876.json", "id": "3051876", "name": "Evan Engram", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3051876/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.475814+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.621887+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "9", "receptions": "47", "receivingTargets": "64", "receivingYards": "365", "yardsPerReception": "7.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "24", "receivingFirstDowns": "17", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "50", "receivingTargets": "76", "receivingYards": "461", "yardsPerReception": "9.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "41", "receivingFirstDowns": "19", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "10", "receivingTargets": "18", "receivingYards": "121", "yardsPerReception": "12.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "34", "receivingFirstDowns": "6", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "7", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "7.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "7", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "9", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "9", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "8" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. 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Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Caleb Lohner", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4432208.json", "id": "4432208", "name": "Caleb Lohner", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4432208/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.477857+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.624217+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. 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Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "RJ Harvey", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4568490.json", "id": "4568490", "name": "RJ Harvey", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4568490/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.551677+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.689806+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "146", "rushingYards": "540", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "longRushing": "50", "rushingFirstDowns": "28", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "15", "rushingYards": "56", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "47", "receivingTargets": "58", "receivingYards": "356", "yardsPerReception": "7.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "longReception": "32", "receivingFirstDowns": "18", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "20", "receivingTargets": "22", "receivingYards": "132", "yardsPerReception": "6.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "19", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "59.6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "12", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "72" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Tyler Badie", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4362748.json", "id": "4362748", "name": "Tyler Badie", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4362748/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.189553+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.331821+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "11", "rushingYards": "86", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "7.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "43", "rushingFirstDowns": "4", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "8", "rushingYards": "23", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "7", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "5", "rushingYards": "16", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "6", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "-2", "yardsPerReception": "-0.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "2", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "19", "receivingTargets": "31", "receivingYards": "141", "yardsPerReception": "7.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "19", "receivingFirstDowns": "9", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "67", "yardsPerReception": "11.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "27", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "0", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "2" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Jonah Coleman", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4702555.json", "id": "4702555", "name": "Jonah Coleman", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4702555/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.268682+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.378828+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "rushingAttempts": "10", "rushingYards": "39", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "12", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "19", "yardsPerReception": "6.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." } ] } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "WR", "chart": "3WR 1TE", "athletes": [ { "id": "4372016", "name": "Jaylen Waddle", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4686472", "name": "Marvin Mims Jr.", "injuries": [] } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/depthcharts", "comparisons": [ { "name": "Jaylen Waddle", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4372016.json", "id": "4372016", "name": "Jaylen Waddle", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4372016/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.275461+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.426097+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", 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"adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "2", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "16" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "36" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "8" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. 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Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." } ] }, { "position": "WR", "chart": "3WR 1TE", "athletes": [ { "id": "4431280", "name": "Troy Franklin", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4600981", "name": "Pat Bryant", "injuries": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T21:47Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "abbreviation": "IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR" }, "details": null } ] } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/depthcharts", "comparisons": [ { "name": "Troy Franklin", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4431280.json", "id": "4431280", "name": "Troy Franklin", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4431280/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.315782+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.441758+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "28", "receivingTargets": "53", "receivingYards": "263", "yardsPerReception": "9.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "30", "receivingFirstDowns": "11", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "65", "receivingTargets": "104", "receivingYards": "709", "yardsPerReception": "10.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "48", "receivingFirstDowns": "32", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "64", "yardsPerReception": "16.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "27", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "8", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "5", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "5", "rushingYards": "12", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "11", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "5", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "5", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "3", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. 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Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." } ] }, { "position": "QB", "chart": "3WR 1TE", "athletes": [ { "id": "4426338", "name": "Bo Nix", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "3892775", "name": "Jarrett Stidham", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4241820", "name": "Sam Ehlinger", "injuries": [] } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/depthcharts", "comparisons": [ { "name": "Bo Nix", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4426338.json", "id": "4426338", "name": "Bo Nix", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4426338/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.451529+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.599321+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "376", "passingAttempts": "567", "completionPct": "66.3", "passingYards": "3,775", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "6.7", "passingTouchdowns": "29", "interceptions": "12", "longPassing": "93", "sacks": "24", "QBRating": "93.3", "adjQBR": "53.5" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "388", "passingAttempts": "612", "completionPct": "63.4", "passingYards": "3,931", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "6.4", "passingTouchdowns": "25", "interceptions": "11", "longPassing": "52", "sacks": "22", "QBRating": "87.8", "adjQBR": "58.3" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "97", "passingAttempts": "162", "completionPct": "59.9", "passingYards": "942", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "5.8", "passingTouchdowns": "6", "interceptions": "3", "longPassing": "49", "sacks": "6", "QBRating": "80.8", "adjQBR": "41.5" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "92", "rushingYards": "430", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "longRushing": "32", "rushingFirstDowns": "41", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "83", "rushingYards": "356", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "5", "longRushing": "25", "rushingFirstDowns": "25", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "18", "rushingYards": "35", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "8", "rushingFirstDowns": "6", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "2", "yardsPerReception": "2.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "2", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "0", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "0", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "29", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "25", "rushingTouchdowns": "5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "6", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. 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Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." } ] }, { "position": "TE", "chart": "3WR 1TE", "athletes": [ { "id": "3051876", "name": "Evan Engram", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "3911853", "name": "Adam Trautman", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4383440", "name": "Nate Adkins", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "5159802", "name": "Dallen Bentley", "injuries": [] }, { "id": "4432208", "name": "Caleb Lohner", "injuries": [ { "date": "2026-08-31T16:50Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "abbreviation": "IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR" }, "details": null } ] } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/depthcharts", "comparisons": [ { "name": "Evan Engram", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-3051876.json", "id": "3051876", "name": "Evan Engram", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3051876/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.475814+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.621887+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "9", "receptions": "47", "receivingTargets": "64", "receivingYards": "365", "yardsPerReception": "7.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "24", "receivingFirstDowns": "17", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "50", "receivingTargets": "76", "receivingYards": "461", "yardsPerReception": "9.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "41", "receivingFirstDowns": "19", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "10", "receivingTargets": "18", "receivingYards": "121", "yardsPerReception": "12.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "34", "receivingFirstDowns": "6", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "7", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "7.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "7", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "9", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "9", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "8" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. 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Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Caleb Lohner", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4432208.json", "id": "4432208", "name": "Caleb Lohner", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4432208/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.477857+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.624217+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. 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Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "RJ Harvey", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4568490.json", "id": "4568490", "name": "RJ Harvey", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4568490/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.551677+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.689806+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "146", "rushingYards": "540", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "longRushing": "50", "rushingFirstDowns": "28", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "15", "rushingYards": "56", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "47", "receivingTargets": "58", "receivingYards": "356", "yardsPerReception": "7.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "longReception": "32", "receivingFirstDowns": "18", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "20", "receivingTargets": "22", "receivingYards": "132", "yardsPerReception": "6.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "19", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "59.6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "12", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "72" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Tyler Badie", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4362748.json", "id": "4362748", "name": "Tyler Badie", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4362748/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.189553+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.331821+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "11", "rushingYards": "86", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "7.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "43", "rushingFirstDowns": "4", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "8", "rushingYards": "23", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "7", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "5", "rushingYards": "16", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "6", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "-2", "yardsPerReception": "-0.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "2", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "19", "receivingTargets": "31", "receivingYards": "141", "yardsPerReception": "7.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "19", "receivingFirstDowns": "9", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "67", "yardsPerReception": "11.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "27", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "0", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "2" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." }, { "name": "Jonah Coleman", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4702555.json", "id": "4702555", "name": "Jonah Coleman", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4702555/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.268682+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.378828+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "rushingAttempts": "10", "rushingYards": "39", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "12", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "19", "yardsPerReception": "6.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "No row verified; see official biography/game notes, never interpret missing as zero" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "NFL games/attempts/targets retained in vendor rows; additional games/starts below and official careers. Missing routes, snaps, pressure, protection-call experience, drops/red-zone shares and historical starts stay unestimated." } ] } ], "reference_lineup": "Bo Nix, J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey, Jaylen Waddle, Courtland Sutton and Evan Engram have no final designation. Jonah Coleman and Caleb Lohner remain reserve injury cases; neither is a lead back or primary receiving tight end.", "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Pat Bryant", "pos": "WR", "conditional": false, "status": "IR October9 official", "pool": [ "Troy Franklin", "Marvin Mims Jr.", "Lil'Jordan Humphrey", "Jaylen Waddle", "Courtland Sutton" ], "basis": "Bryant had nine catches for 133 yards and one touchdown on 12 targets in four games, compared with Franklin six targets in five games and Mims five in three. Bryant had 49 targets and 31 catches in 15 games in 2025. Humphrey was promoted when Bryant went on IR. Receiving work may move to Franklin, Mims, Humphrey, Waddle or Sutton; exact shares are unverified. Apply the material-receiver minus-three scenario, retaining a zero-deduction supporting-role sensitivity.", "familiarity": "Franklin, Mims and Humphrey have Denver system experience. Humphrey 2025 Giants and Broncos splits remain separate. Waddle arrived by an offseason March 17 trade, with current Denver games establishing familiarity; no automatic in-season trade deduction applies.", "sources": [ "den-bryant", "den-transactions", "den-depth-official", "career-pat-bryant", "career-troy-franklin", "career-lil-jordan-humphrey" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ 0, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ 0, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ 0, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ 0, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until all existing market, activation, adverse and risk gates pass", "human_deduction": -3 } }, "comparison": [ { "name": "Pat Bryant", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4600981.json", "id": "4600981", "name": "Pat Bryant", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4600981/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.315782+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.451529+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "31", "receivingTargets": "49", "receivingYards": "378", "yardsPerReception": "12.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "48", "receivingFirstDowns": "22", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "9", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "133", "yardsPerReception": "14.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "16", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "16.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "16", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "8" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." }, { "file": "college-stats-4600981.json", "name": "Pat Bryant", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4600981/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:36:10.557777+00:00", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "356", "teamSlug": "illinois-fighting-illini", "stats": { "receptions": "54", "receivingYards": "984", "yardsPerReception": "18.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "10", "longReception": "64" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "356", "teamSlug": "illinois-fighting-illini", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "5", "rushingYards": "14", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "7" } } ] } ], "retention": "2024/2025/2026 separate seasons and teams; college data never converted to NFL" } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Troy Franklin", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4431280.json", "id": "4431280", "name": "Troy Franklin", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4431280/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.315782+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.441758+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "28", "receivingTargets": "53", "receivingYards": "263", "yardsPerReception": "9.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "30", "receivingFirstDowns": "11", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "65", "receivingTargets": "104", "receivingYards": "709", "yardsPerReception": "10.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "48", "receivingFirstDowns": "32", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "64", "yardsPerReception": "16.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "27", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "8", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "5", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "5", "rushingYards": "12", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "11", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "5", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "5", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "3", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Marvin Mims Jr.", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4686472.json", "id": "4686472", "name": "Marvin Mims Jr.", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4686472/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.189553+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.375535+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "39", "receivingTargets": "52", "receivingYards": "503", "yardsPerReception": "12.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "93", "receivingFirstDowns": "14", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "37", "receivingTargets": "51", "receivingYards": "322", "yardsPerReception": "8.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "31", "receivingFirstDowns": "14", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "5", "receivingYards": "16", "yardsPerReception": "5.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "10", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "13", "rushingYards": "42", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "17", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "12", "rushingYards": "78", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "16", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "3", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "3", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "36" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Lil'Jordan Humphrey", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4039057.json", "id": "4039057", "name": "Lil'Jordan Humphrey", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4039057/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.300143+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.477857+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "31", "receivingTargets": "45", "receivingYards": "293", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "41", "receivingFirstDowns": "12", "receivingFumbles": "2", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "10", "receivingYards": "55", "yardsPerReception": "13.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "34", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "receptions": "9", "receivingTargets": "15", "receivingYards": "101", "yardsPerReception": "11.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "22", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2025 Totals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "receptions": "13", "receivingTargets": "25", "receivingYards": "156", "yardsPerReception": "12.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "34", "receivingFirstDowns": "9", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "8", "yardsPerReception": "8.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2025 Totals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Jaylen Waddle", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-4372016.json", "id": "4372016", "name": "Jaylen Waddle", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4372016/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.275461+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.426097+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "58", "receivingTargets": "83", "receivingYards": "744", "yardsPerReception": "12.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "63", "receivingFirstDowns": "38", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "64", "receivingTargets": "100", "receivingYards": "910", "yardsPerReception": "14.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "46", "receivingFirstDowns": "48", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "18", "receivingTargets": "31", "receivingYards": "204", "yardsPerReception": "11.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "49", "receivingFirstDowns": "9", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "4", "rushingYards": "12", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "6", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "28", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "14.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "21", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "23", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "11.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "14", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "1", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "100.0", "passingYards": "8", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "8.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "8", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "100.0", "adjQBR": "0.1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "2", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "16" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "36" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "8" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." }, { "name": "Courtland Sutton", "separate_league_season_team_records": [ { "file": "stats-3128429.json", "id": "3128429", "name": "Courtland Sutton", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3128429/stats", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.300143+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:47.451529+00:00", "season_type": "regular", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "81", "receivingTargets": "135", "receivingYards": "1,081", "yardsPerReception": "13.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "longReception": "47", "receivingFirstDowns": "57", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "74", "receivingTargets": "124", "receivingYards": "1,017", "yardsPerReception": "13.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "longReception": "52", "receivingFirstDowns": "52", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "26", "receivingYards": "104", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "27", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "2", "passingAttempts": "2", "completionPct": "100.0", "passingYards": "30", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "15.0", "passingTouchdowns": "1", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "28", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "158.3", "adjQBR": "100.0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "1", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "0.0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "1", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "8", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "48" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "44" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "retention": "Sporting category allowlist. Separate seasons and team-split rows retained; no betting data." } ], "season_review": [ { "season": 2024, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2025, "status": "source rows retained" }, { "season": 2026, "status": "source rows retained" } ], "games_starts_opportunity_note": "Retained season rows include the available games, attempts and targets. Official biographies and current game notes add verified starts where available. Missing starts, routes, pressure, protection experience, drops and red-zone shares remain unavailable." } ], "source_urls": [ "https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/broncos-promote-wr-lil-jordan-humphrey-to-active-roster-place-wr-pat-bryant-on-ir", "https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/transactions/", "https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/depth-chart", "https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/players-roster/pat-bryant/career", "https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/players-roster/troy-franklin/career", "https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/players-roster/lil-jordan-humphrey/career" ], "incremental_effect": "Unestimated incremental statistical effect. Preserve the registered baseline, which already includes some affected games. The human deduction is an additional labeled assumption, not a measured loss or a three-point cap.", "state": "IR October9 official", "position": "WR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Troy Franklin", "replacement_pool": [ "Troy Franklin", "Marvin Mims Jr.", "Lil'Jordan Humphrey", "Jaylen Waddle", "Courtland Sutton" ], "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Bryant had nine catches for 133 yards and one touchdown on 12 targets in four games, compared with Franklin six targets in five games and Mims five in three. Bryant had 49 targets and 31 catches in 15 games in 2025. Humphrey was promoted when Bryant went on IR. Receiving work may move to Franklin, Mims, Humphrey, Waddle or Sutton; exact shares are unverified. Apply the material-receiver minus-three scenario, retaining a zero-deduction supporting-role sensitivity.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ 0, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "adjusted": [ 23.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ] }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ 0, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "adjusted": [ 22.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ] }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ 0, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "adjusted": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ] }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ 0, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending all applicable gates.", "base": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "adjusted": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ] } }, "scenario_id": "401872995-home-pat-bryant", "human_deduction": -3 } ], "joint_scenario": { "branches": [ { "included_players": [], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ] }, "name": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Pat Bryant" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 23.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 22.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ] }, "name": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" } ], "production_deduction": -3 }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Bo Nix, J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey, Jaylen Waddle, Courtland Sutton and Evan Engram have no final designation. Jonah Coleman and Caleb Lohner remain reserve injury cases; neither is a lead back or primary receiving tight end.", "status": "REVIEWED WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL LIMITATIONS" } ], "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver secondary and Seattle linebacker replacement effects remain unresolved", "detail": "Surtain and Hufanga are out, Moss is questionable, and Tyrice Knight replaces Drake Thomas. Coverage, pressure and field-position effects could change opponent scoring, but no supported point conversion exists. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "Seattle running-back overlap and Denver receiver materiality", "detail": "Test Seattle deductions of zero, three and six points and Denver deductions of zero and three points. The six-point Seattle endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads; it is not automatic injury headcount. Ordinary stress and high-risk gates still apply.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "defense_protection_inventory": { "sources": [ "https://www.seahawks.com/news/week-6-injury-report-seahawks-at-broncos", "https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/injury-report-cb-riley-moss-listed-as-questionable-for-thursday-night-football-vs-seahawks", "https://www.seahawks.com/team/depth-chart", "https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/depth-chart" ], "separate_offense_pathway": "Review covered-role workload changes separately. Incremental statistical score effects remain unestimated; no coefficient was invented.", "separate_defense_pathway": "Review coverage, pressure, turnovers, possession and field-position mechanisms separately. No defensible incremental point conversion is available; unchanged opponent points do not mean the true effect is zero." }, "release_gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE until applicable high risks are resolved and all existing gates pass." }, "football_supplement": { "event_id": "401872995", "identity": { "id": "401872995", "date": "2026-10-16T00:15Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3937", "fullName": "Empower Field at Mile High", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Denver", "state": "CO", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "26", "away_name": "Seattle Seahawks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "7", "home_name": "Denver Broncos", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "home_margin": -2.0748663101604308, "total": 38.17379679144385, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market, adverse, stress and model gates. Unresolved HIGH risks require PASS.", "production_assumption": "Seattle shared running-back loss minus three and Denver material receiver loss minus three.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 17.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "home_selection": [ 23.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 35.17379679144385, "under_selection_total": 44.17379679144385 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "These endpoints cover labeled human availability sensitivities only. Unestimated defense, protection and tempo effects are not numerically bounded; use the high-risk PASS gate where applicable." }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "home_margin": -2.1906754419968912, "total": 36.87944905784251, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market, adverse, stress and model gates. Unresolved HIGH risks require PASS.", "production_assumption": "Seattle shared running-back loss minus three and Denver material receiver loss minus three.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 16.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "home_selection": [ 22.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 33.87944905784251, "under_selection_total": 42.87944905784251 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "These endpoints cover labeled human availability sensitivities only. Unestimated defense, protection and tempo effects are not numerically bounded; use the high-risk PASS gate where applicable." }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "home_margin": -3.3767100638488152, "total": 38.69614522427662, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market, adverse, stress and model gates. Unresolved HIGH risks require PASS.", "production_assumption": "Seattle shared running-back loss minus three and Denver material receiver loss minus three.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "home_selection": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 35.69614522427662, "under_selection_total": 44.69614522427662 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "These endpoints cover labeled human availability sensitivities only. Unestimated defense, protection and tempo effects are not numerically bounded; use the high-risk PASS gate where applicable." }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "home_margin": -3.3767100638488152, "total": 38.69614522427662, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market, adverse, stress and model gates. Unresolved HIGH risks require PASS.", "production_assumption": "Seattle shared running-back loss minus three and Denver material receiver loss minus three.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "home_selection": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 35.69614522427662, "under_selection_total": 44.69614522427662 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "These endpoints cover labeled human availability sensitivities only. Unestimated defense, protection and tempo effects are not numerically bounded; use the high-risk PASS gate where applicable." } }, "production_scenario": "SEA RB JOINT -3 / DEN BRYANT -3", "scenario_choice_by_team": { "away": { "branches": [ { "included_players": [], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ] }, "name": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Jadarian Price" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 20.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 19.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ] }, "name": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Zach Charbonnet" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 20.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 19.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ] }, "name": "Zach Charbonnet \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Zach Charbonnet", "Jadarian Price" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 20.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 19.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ] }, "name": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Zach Charbonnet", "Jadarian Price" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "distinct workload adverse endpoint", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 17.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 16.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ] }, "name": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint" } ], "production_deduction": -3 }, "home": { "branches": [ { "included_players": [], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 23.12433155080214, 21.04946524064171 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 22.535062249919697, 20.344386807922806 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ] }, "name": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" }, { "included_players": [ "Pat Bryant" ], "availability_assumption": "Included conditional players are assumed unavailable or materially limited only in this branch. A zero-deduction sensitivity for a confirmed absence does not assert that the player is healthy.", "label": "shared-opportunity overlap", "overlap": "Shared rushing-committee opportunities or quarterback/receiver passing drives count once in the default joint scenario. The additive endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads. There is no arbitrary three-point cap.", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 23.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 22.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ] }, "name": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap" } ], "production_deduction": -3 } }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver secondary and Seattle linebacker replacement effects remain unresolved", "detail": "Surtain and Hufanga are out, Moss is questionable, and Tyrice Knight replaces Drake Thomas. Coverage, pressure and field-position effects could change opponent scoring, but no supported point conversion exists. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "Seattle running-back overlap and Denver receiver materiality", "detail": "Test Seattle deductions of zero, three and six points and Denver deductions of zero and three points. The six-point Seattle endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads; it is not automatic injury headcount. Ordinary stress and high-risk gates still apply.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "Seattle is without Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price. Emanuel Wilson and George Holani share the replacement workload. Denver has Pat Bryant on injured reserve. Smith-Njigba is cleared. Denver secondary absences and Seattle linebacker replacement effects remain unestimated, so live selections stay PASS.", "Gideon Marsh": "Registered baselines are unchanged. Isolated minus-three scenarios and joint overlap are explicit; Conservative ON/OFF use identical scoring arithmetic. Unestimated defensive pathways retain the relevant risk gate." }, "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json" }, "offensive_review": [], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos", "market": { "id": "401872995", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872995", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.806643+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 40.5, "under_line": 40.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -108.0, "home_ml": 120.0, "away_ml": -142.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 2.5, "average_total": 40.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -2.0748663101604308, "combined": 44.17379679144385, "spread_buffer": 0.42513368983956923, "total_difference": 3.6737967914438485 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -2.0748663101604308, "combined": 38.17379679144385, "spread_buffer": 0.42513368983956923, "total_difference": -2.3262032085561515 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -2.1906754419968912, "combined": 42.87944905784251, "spread_buffer": 0.30932455800310876, "total_difference": 2.379449057842507 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -2.1906754419968912, "combined": 36.87944905784251, "spread_buffer": 0.30932455800310876, "total_difference": -3.620550942157493 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -3.3767100638488152, "combined": 44.69614522427662, "spread_buffer": -0.8767100638488152, "total_difference": 4.19614522427662 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -3.3767100638488152, "combined": 38.69614522427662, "spread_buffer": -0.8767100638488152, "total_difference": -1.80385477572338 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401872995", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872995", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.806643+00:00", "selection_side": "away", "line": -2.5, "home_line": 2.5, "pick": "Seattle Seahawks -2.5", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": -5.123289936151185, "worst_applicable_buffer": -5.123289936151185, "worst_stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185, "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848 }, { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848 }, { "branch": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -2.1232899361511848, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.1232899361511848, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.123289936151185 }, { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -5.123289936151185, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -5.123289936151185, "adverse_score": [ 18.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185 }, { "branch": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 3.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.8767100638488152 } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver secondary and Seattle linebacker replacement effects remain unresolved", "detail": "Surtain and Hufanga are out, Moss is questionable, and Tyrice Knight replaces Drake Thomas. Coverage, pressure and field-position effects could change opponent scoring, but no supported point conversion exists. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Seattle running-back overlap and Denver receiver materiality", "detail": "Test Seattle deductions of zero, three and six points and Denver deductions of zero and three points. The six-point Seattle endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads; it is not automatic injury headcount. Ordinary stress and high-risk gates still apply.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress", "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual availability and unestimated defensive effects are evaluated separately." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "2 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -8.123289936151185, "worst_case": { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -5.123289936151185, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -5.123289936151185, "adverse_score": [ 18.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185 }, "scenario_count": 5, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848 }, { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848 }, { "branch": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -2.1232899361511848, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.1232899361511848, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.123289936151185 }, { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -5.123289936151185, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -5.123289936151185, "adverse_score": [ 18.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185 }, { "branch": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 3.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.8767100638488152 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 20.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "buffer": -0.42513368983956923, "stressed_buffer": -3.4251336898395692, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 19.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "buffer": -0.30932455800310876, "stressed_buffer": -3.3093245580031088, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "home_selection": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 35.69614522427662, "under_selection_total": 44.69614522427662 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, "total": { "event_id": "401872995", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "matchup": "Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872995", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.806643+00:00", "selection_side": "under", "line": 40.5, "home_line": 2.5, "pick": "Under 40.5", "price": -108.0, "canonical_buffer": 1.80385477572338, "required_buffer": 5, "minimum_branch_buffer": -4.19614522427662, "worst_applicable_buffer": -4.19614522427662, "worst_stressed_buffer": -7.19614522427662, "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 1.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -4.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -7.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -1.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 1.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -1.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Frozen total bound over_selection_total", "score": [ 18.036427644062716, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 4.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 21.036427644062716, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.80385477572338 } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver secondary and Seattle linebacker replacement effects remain unresolved", "detail": "Surtain and Hufanga are out, Moss is questionable, and Tyrice Knight replaces Drake Thomas. Coverage, pressure and field-position effects could change opponent scoring, but no supported point conversion exists. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Seattle running-back overlap and Denver receiver materiality", "detail": "Test Seattle deductions of zero, three and six points and Denver deductions of zero and three points. The six-point Seattle endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads; it is not automatic injury headcount. Ordinary stress and high-risk gates still apply.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress", "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual availability and unestimated defensive effects are evaluated separately." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "2 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -7.19614522427662, "worst_case": { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -4.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -7.19614522427662 }, "scenario_count": 6, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 1.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -4.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -7.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -1.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 1.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -1.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Frozen total bound over_selection_total", "score": [ 18.036427644062716, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 4.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 21.036427644062716, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.80385477572338 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 20.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "buffer": 2.3262032085561515, "stressed_buffer": -0.6737967914438485, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 19.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "buffer": 3.620550942157493, "stressed_buffer": 0.6205509421574931, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "home_selection": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 35.69614522427662, "under_selection_total": 44.69614522427662 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -3.3767100638488152, "combined": 44.69614522427662, "spread_buffer": -0.8767100638488152, "total_difference": 4.19614522427662 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -3.3767100638488152, "combined": 38.69614522427662, "spread_buffer": -0.8767100638488152, "total_difference": -1.80385477572338 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401872995", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872995", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.806643+00:00", "selection_side": "away", "line": -2.5, "home_line": 2.5, "pick": "Seattle Seahawks -2.5", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "required_buffer": 3, "minimum_branch_buffer": -5.123289936151185, "worst_applicable_buffer": -5.123289936151185, "worst_stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185, "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848 }, { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848 }, { "branch": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -2.1232899361511848, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.1232899361511848, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.123289936151185 }, { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -5.123289936151185, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -5.123289936151185, "adverse_score": [ 18.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185 }, { "branch": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 3.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.8767100638488152 } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver secondary and Seattle linebacker replacement effects remain unresolved", "detail": "Surtain and Hufanga are out, Moss is questionable, and Tyrice Knight replaces Drake Thomas. Coverage, pressure and field-position effects could change opponent scoring, but no supported point conversion exists. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Seattle running-back overlap and Denver receiver materiality", "detail": "Test Seattle deductions of zero, three and six points and Denver deductions of zero and three points. The six-point Seattle endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads; it is not automatic injury headcount. Ordinary stress and high-risk gates still apply.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress", "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual availability and unestimated defensive effects are evaluated separately." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "2 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -8.123289936151185, "worst_case": { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -5.123289936151185, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -5.123289936151185, "adverse_score": [ 18.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185 }, "scenario_count": 5, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848 }, { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 0.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.1232899361511848 }, { "branch": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -2.1232899361511848, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.1232899361511848, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.123289936151185 }, { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -5.123289936151185, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -5.123289936151185, "adverse_score": [ 18.03642764406272, 23.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -8.123289936151185 }, { "branch": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 3.8767100638488152, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8767100638488152, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.8767100638488152 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. 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A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 20.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "buffer": -0.42513368983956923, "stressed_buffer": -3.4251336898395692, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 19.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "buffer": -0.30932455800310876, "stressed_buffer": -3.3093245580031088, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "home_selection": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 35.69614522427662, "under_selection_total": 44.69614522427662 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, "total": { "event_id": "401872995", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "matchup": "Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872995", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.806643+00:00", "selection_side": "under", "line": 40.5, "home_line": 2.5, "pick": "Under 40.5", "price": -108.0, "canonical_buffer": 1.80385477572338, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": -4.19614522427662, "worst_applicable_buffer": -4.19614522427662, "worst_stressed_buffer": -7.19614522427662, "base_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 1.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Baseline sensitivity \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -4.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -7.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Jadarian Price \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -1.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 24.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price \u2014 distinct workload adverse endpoint", "score": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 1.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 21.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Pat Bryant \u2014 shared-opportunity overlap", "score": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": -1.19614522427662, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.19614522427662, "adverse_score": [ 27.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.19614522427662 }, { "branch": "Frozen total bound over_selection_total", "score": [ 18.036427644062716, 17.659717580213904 ], "buffer": 4.80385477572338, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.80385477572338, "adverse_score": [ 21.036427644062716, 17.659717580213904 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.80385477572338 } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver secondary and Seattle linebacker replacement effects remain unresolved", "detail": "Surtain and Hufanga are out, Moss is questionable, and Tyrice Knight replaces Drake Thomas. 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A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "frozen_model_checks": [ { "model": "Classic", "score": [ 20.12433155080214, 18.04946524064171 ], "buffer": 2.3262032085561515, "stressed_buffer": -0.6737967914438485, "derived_from_frozen_values": true }, { "model": "Primary", "score": [ 19.535062249919697, 17.344386807922806 ], "buffer": 3.620550942157493, "stressed_buffer": 0.6205509421574931, "derived_from_frozen_values": true } ], "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 18.03642764406272, 20.659717580213904 ], "home_selection": [ 24.03642764406272, 17.659717580213904 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 35.69614522427662, "under_selection_total": 44.69614522427662 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401908622", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401908622", "date": "2026-10-16T00:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1394", "fullName": "Toyota Center (Houston)", "address": { "city": "Houston", "state": "TX" }, "indoor": true }, "away": "25", "away_name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "10", "home_name": "Houston Rockets", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 113.01829268292684, 113.0548780487805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 113.01829268292684, 113.0548780487805 ], "conditional_score": [ 113.01829268292684, 113.0548780487805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 112.6245370599884, 110.08751540011895 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.6245370599884, 110.08751540011895 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.6245370599884, 110.08751540011895 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2793, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-15T02:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "457ae047ea15a7ffc7de4e90d2ac2d4f84dbd6c20dd5526978bdafeea2860856" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 5, "accuracy": 0.7142857142857143, "wilson95": [ 0.35893445183261935, 0.9177810759959433 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 11.772562407159187, "mean_margin_error": 13.818307868656559, "mean_total_error": 15.251879813887456, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.51829000000001, 134.51829 ], "home": [ 91.5548775, 131.5548775 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 114.51829000000001, 111.5548775 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.51829000000001, 111.5548775 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.51829000000001, 111.5548775 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.02439, "pa": 107.87805 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.231705, "pa": 110.01219 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 6, "accuracy": 0.8571428571428571, "wilson95": [ 0.4868721707256811, 0.9743203756552565 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 12.02047053571429, "mean_margin_error": 14.798779642857147, "mean_total_error": 15.07055821428572, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.51829000000001, 134.51829 ], "home": [ 91.5548775, 131.5548775 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 114.51829000000001, 111.5548775 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.51829000000001, 111.5548775 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.51829000000001, 111.5548775 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.02439, "pa": 107.87805 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.231705, "pa": 110.01219 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 6, "accuracy": 0.8571428571428571, "wilson95": [ 0.4868721707256811, 0.9743203756552565 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 12.02047053571429, "mean_margin_error": 14.798779642857147, "mean_total_error": 15.07055821428572, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.51829000000001, 134.51829 ], "home": [ 91.5548775, 131.5548775 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Houston Rockets: Capela starts latest reference for rested Sengun/Adams; Thompson/Smart/Sheppard creation. Durant/Van Vleet return conditional from earlier actual rotations. Oklahoma City Thunder: Latest SGA/Jalen Williams/Caruso/Wallace/Hartenstein first unit. SGA final tune-up undecided. Otega Oweh newly OUT after 15 minutes excluded; Holmgren/Mitchell/Sorber/Topic/Jaylin Williams conditional returns.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2793 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Toyota Center (Houston); listed 2026-10-16T00:30Z. Official home-team schedule matches Oct 15 vs OKC 8:30 pm ET Toyota Center Preseason. No automatic activation from preseason games.", "details": { "event_id": "401908622", "sport": "NBA", "away": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "home": "Houston Rockets", "start_et": "2026-10-15T20:30:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T00:30Z", "venue": { "id": "1394", "fullName": "Toyota Center (Houston)", "address": { "city": "Houston", "state": "TX" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 1, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0.0", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 8:30 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 8:30 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.215511+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612745/schedule" ], "context": [ "Official home-team schedule matches Oct 15 vs OKC 8:30 pm ET Toyota Center Preseason. No automatic activation from preseason games." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "previous_game": { "id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "2559", "fullName": "Paycom Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Oklahoma City", "state": "OK" } }, "away": "11", "away_name": "Indiana Pacers", "away_score": 112.0, "home": "25", "home_name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "home_score": 114.0, "day": 20740.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Houston Rockets", "previous_game": { "id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": true, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "4018", "fullName": "Venetian Arena", "indoor": true, "address": null }, "away": "6", "away_name": "Dallas Mavericks", "away_score": 132.0, "home": "10", "home_name": "Houston Rockets", "home_score": 115.0, "day": 20737.416666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 4, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "stage_label": "Preseason / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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Jackson Jr.", "Chucky Hepburn", "Otega Oweh", "Robert McCray V", "Trey Jemison III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction.", "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "alternate_actual_preseason_reference_branches": [ { "reference_date": "2026-10-09T12:00Z", "scenario": "Alternative actual preseason role; conditional return not coach commitment", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "3202", "player": "Kevin Durant", "reference_minutes": 23.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 22.904564315352697, "creation_assist_share": 0.05555555555555555, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.6028938906752411, "conditional_FGA": 12.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 11.0 }, { "player_id": "4432639", "player": "Jabari Smith Jr.", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.90871369294606, "creation_assist_share": 0.027777777777777776, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.6147540983606558, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4871144", "player": "Alperen Sengun", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.90871369294606, "creation_assist_share": 0.2777777777777778, "reference_AST": 10.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 4.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.7142857142857143, "conditional_FGA": 9.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.0 }, { "player_id": "2991230", "player": "Fred VanVleet", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 23.900414937759336, "creation_assist_share": 0.19444444444444445, "reference_AST": 7.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.6381381381381381, "conditional_FGA": 12.0, "conditional_3PA": 12.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4684740", "player": "Amen Thompson", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 23.900414937759336, "creation_assist_share": 0.05555555555555555, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 6.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 8.0 }, { "player_id": "4433192", "player": "Tari Eason", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 23.900414937759336, "creation_assist_share": 0.05555555555555555, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7, "reference_TS": 0.764525993883792, "conditional_FGA": 10.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 7.0, "conditional_2PA": 8.0 }, { "player_id": "4592857", "player": "Isaiah Crawford", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.950207468879668, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5154639175257733, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "5105553", "player": "Julian Phillips", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.970954356846473, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": null, "reference_TS": null, "conditional_FGA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "2991235", "player": "Steven Adams", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.941908713692946, "creation_assist_share": 0.027777777777777776, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4432827", "player": "Oscar Tshiebwe", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.950207468879668, "creation_assist_share": 0.027777777777777776, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 0.8680555555555556, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "3037789", "player": "Bogdan Bogdanovic", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.933609958506224, "creation_assist_share": 0.1111111111111111, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.4098360655737705, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4683860", "player": "Quadir Copeland", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 8.962655601659751, "creation_assist_share": 0.027777777777777776, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": null, "reference_TS": 0.8522727272727273, "conditional_FGA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4709131", "player": "Sean Pedulla", "reference_minutes": 4.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 3.983402489626556, "creation_assist_share": 0.05555555555555555, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4711272", "player": "Reed Sheppard", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.92116182572614, "creation_assist_share": 0.027777777777777776, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8, "reference_TS": 0.8, "conditional_FGA": 10.0, "conditional_3PA": 7.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5105837", "player": "Bruce Thornton", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 8.962655601659751, "creation_assist_share": 0.05555555555555555, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.9166666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.9447674418604651, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Andre Jackson Jr.", "Chucky Hepburn", "Otega Oweh", "Robert McCray V", "Trey Jemison III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." } ], "unknown_return_roles": [], "return_rule": "No current sample => unestimated return workload, no inventedminutes. Current season preseason separate from prior regular seasons." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "4432639", "player": "Jabari Smith Jr.", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400", "MIN": "28", "3PT": "2-6", "PTS": "14", "AST": "4", "FG": "6-10", "TO": "2", "OREB": "4", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "3102529", "player": "Clint Capela", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400", "MIN": "24", "3PT": "0-0", "PTS": "5", "AST": "0", "FG": "2-3", "TO": "3", "OREB": "2", "FT": "1-2" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "2990992", "player": "Marcus Smart", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400", "MIN": "24", "3PT": "4-9", "PTS": "20", "AST": "4", "FG": "7-13", "TO": "1", "OREB": "0", "FT": "2-3" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "4684740", "player": "Amen Thompson", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400", "MIN": "30", "3PT": "1-4", "PTS": "14", "AST": "6", "FG": "4-12", "TO": "2", "OREB": "6", "FT": "5-6" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "4711272", "player": "Reed Sheppard", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400", "MIN": "25", "3PT": "4-10", "PTS": "17", "AST": "1", "FG": "5-12", "TO": "5", "OREB": "0", "FT": "3-4" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "4433192", "player": "Tari Eason", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400", "MIN": "22", "3PT": "0-3", "PTS": "9", "AST": "0", "FG": "3-8", "TO": "1", "OREB": "2", "FT": "3-3" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "4592857", "player": "Isaiah Crawford", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400", "MIN": "17", "3PT": "1-2", "PTS": "6", "AST": "0", "FG": "1-3", "TO": "1", "OREB": "1", "FT": "3-4" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "5105553", "player": "Julian Phillips", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400", "MIN": "8", "3PT": "0-0", "PTS": "0", "AST": "0", "FG": "0-2", "TO": "0", "OREB": "1", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "4432827", "player": "Oscar Tshiebwe", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400", "MIN": "12", "3PT": "0-0", "PTS": "12", "AST": "1", "FG": "4-5", "TO": "1", "OREB": "4", "FT": "4-6" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "3037789", "player": "Bogdan Bogdanovic", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400", "MIN": "14", "3PT": "2-6", "PTS": "7", "AST": "0", "FG": "2-7", "TO": "4", "OREB": "0", "FT": "1-1" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "4683860", "player": "Quadir Copeland", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400", "MIN": "12", "3PT": "0-0", "PTS": "2", "AST": "2", "FG": "1-4", "TO": "0", "OREB": "1", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "4709131", "player": "Sean Pedulla", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400", "MIN": "7", "3PT": "0-3", "PTS": "0", "AST": "1", "FG": "0-5", "TO": "0", "OREB": "0", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "5105837", "player": "Bruce Thornton", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400", "MIN": "18", "3PT": "0-4", "PTS": "9", "AST": "0", "FG": "2-6", "TO": "1", "OREB": "0", "FT": "5-7" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "3202", "player": "Kevin Durant", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "3136777", "player": "Jae'Sean Tate", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "2991235", "player": "Steven Adams", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "4871144", "player": "Alperen Sengun", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400" }, { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "2991230", "player": "Fred VanVleet", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400" } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "points", "adjustment_units": "points", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 113.01829268292684, 113.0548780487805 ], "Primary": [ 112.6245370599884, 110.08751540011895 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 114.51829000000001, 111.5548775 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 114.51829000000001, 111.5548775 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400", "https://www.nba.com/players/transactions", "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612745/rockets" ], "findings": "Capela starts latest reference for rested Sengun/Adams; Thompson/Smart/Sheppard creation. 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22.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.90871369294606, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.375, "reference_TS": 0.48283261802575106, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4592857", "player": "Isaiah Crawford", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.929460580912863, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6302521008403361, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "5105553", "player": "Julian Phillips", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 7.966804979253112, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4432827", "player": "Oscar Tshiebwe", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.950207468879668, "creation_assist_share": 0.05263157894736842, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 4.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8, "reference_TS": 0.7853403141361256, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "3037789", "player": "Bogdan Bogdanovic", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.941908713692946, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.42857142857142855, "reference_TS": 0.4704301075268817, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4683860", "player": "Quadir Copeland", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.950207468879668, "creation_assist_share": 0.10526315789473684, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.25, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4709131", "player": "Sean Pedulla", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.970954356846473, "creation_assist_share": 0.05263157894736842, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "5105837", "player": "Bruce Thornton", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.925311203319502, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, 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"5105553", "player": "Julian Phillips", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 7.966804979253112, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4432827", "player": "Oscar Tshiebwe", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.950207468879668, "creation_assist_share": 0.05263157894736842, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 4.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8, "reference_TS": 0.7853403141361256, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "3037789", "player": "Bogdan Bogdanovic", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.941908713692946, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.42857142857142855, "reference_TS": 0.4704301075268817, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4683860", "player": "Quadir Copeland", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.950207468879668, "creation_assist_share": 0.10526315789473684, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.25, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4709131", "player": "Sean Pedulla", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.970954356846473, "creation_assist_share": 0.05263157894736842, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, 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Return conditional, no repeated full-player deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Pools are descriptive subsets of team240minutes; never sum separate missing-player pools." }, { "incumbent_id": "2991230", "incumbent": "Fred VanVleet", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-11T10:01Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "2991230", "player": "Fred VanVleet", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "10", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Houston Rockets", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/2991230/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "60", "gamesStarted": "60", "avgMinutes": "35.2", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "4.8-12.7", "fieldGoalPct": "37.8", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "2.7-7.7", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "34.5", 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"miscellaneous", "current_team": "Houston Rockets", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/2991230/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "3.8", "scoringEfficiency": "1.112", "shootingEfficiency": "0.48" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "2991230", "player": "Fred VanVleet", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898400" }, { "event_id": "401898395", "date": "2026-10-09T12:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Houston Rockets", "player_id": "2991230", "player": "Fred VanVleet", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898395", "MIN": "24", "3PT": "5-12", "PTS": "17", "AST": "7", "FG": "5-12", "TO": "1", "OREB": "0", "FT": "2-3" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4432639", "player": "Jabari Smith Jr.", "reference_minutes": 28.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 27.883817427385893, "creation_assist_share": 0.21052631578947367, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 4.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7, "reference_TS": 0.7, "conditional_FGA": 10.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3102529", "player": "Clint Capela", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 23.900414937759336, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6443298969072165, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "2990992", "player": "Marcus Smart", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": true, 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"reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5833333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.6177325581395349, "conditional_FGA": 12.0, "conditional_3PA": 10.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4433192", "player": "Tari Eason", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.90871369294606, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.375, "reference_TS": 0.48283261802575106, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4592857", "player": "Isaiah Crawford", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.929460580912863, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6302521008403361, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "5105553", "player": "Julian Phillips", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 7.966804979253112, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4432827", "player": "Oscar Tshiebwe", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.950207468879668, "creation_assist_share": 0.05263157894736842, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 4.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8, "reference_TS": 0.7853403141361256, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "3037789", "player": "Bogdan Bogdanovic", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.941908713692946, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.42857142857142855, "reference_TS": 0.4704301075268817, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4683860", "player": "Quadir Copeland", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.950207468879668, "creation_assist_share": 0.10526315789473684, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.25, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4709131", "player": "Sean Pedulla", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.970954356846473, "creation_assist_share": 0.05263157894736842, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "5105837", "player": "Bruce Thornton", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.925311203319502, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.4955947136563877, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 7.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 } ], "conclusion": "Already absent from latest reference; actual teammates carry displayed opportunity. Return conditional, no repeated full-player deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Pools are descriptive subsets of team240minutes; never sum separate missing-player pools." } ], "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL240_MINUTES_SHOTS_CREATION_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401908622", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 113.01829268292684, 113.0548780487805 ], "Primary": [ 112.6245370599884, 110.08751540011895 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 114.51829000000001, 111.5548775 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 114.51829000000001, 111.5548775 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } }, { "sport": "NBA", "event_id": "401908622", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "rotation": [ { "player_id": "4222252", "player": "Isaiah Hartenstein", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 12.53012048192771, "creation_assist_share": 0.09090909090909091, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 3.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 }, { "player_id": "2991350", "player": "Alex Caruso", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.457831325301205, "creation_assist_share": 0.045454545454545456, "reference_AST": 1.0, 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"reference_eFG": 0.5357142857142857, "reference_TS": 0.5221932114882506, "conditional_FGA": 15.08695652173913, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.3157894736842106, "conditional_2PA": 11.08695652173913 }, { "player_id": "4683692", "player": "Cason Wallace", "reference_minutes": 20.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.27710843373494, "creation_assist_share": 0.045454545454545456, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 7.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 }, { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.240963855421686, "creation_assist_share": 0.09090909090909091, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4375, "reference_TS": 0.4375, "conditional_FGA": 8.434782608695652, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.434782608695652 }, { "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.746987951807229, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "reference_minutes": 4.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 3.855421686746988, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.108695652173913, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.108695652173913 }, { "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.313253012048193, "creation_assist_share": 0.045454545454545456, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8, "reference_TS": 0.8503401360544218, "conditional_FGA": 5.543478260869565, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.210526315789474, "conditional_2PA": 5.543478260869565 }, { "player_id": "3133626", "player": "Kenrich Williams", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.313253012048193, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.375, "reference_TS": 0.3941441441441441, "conditional_FGA": 8.543478260869566, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.210526315789474, "conditional_2PA": 5.543478260869565 }, { "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "reference_minutes": 5.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 4.819277108433735, "creation_assist_share": 0.045454545454545456, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.1666666666666667, "reference_TS": 1.1666666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 3.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 }, { "player_id": "4683778", "player": "Jared McCain", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.313253012048193, "creation_assist_share": 0.09090909090909091, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6923076923076923, "reference_TS": 0.7204610951008645, "conditional_FGA": 13.108695652173914, "conditional_3PA": 12.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.210526315789474, "conditional_2PA": 1.108695652173913 }, { "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.493975903614459, "creation_assist_share": 0.13636363636363635, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 23.132530120481928, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.3333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 3.108695652173913, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.108695652173913 }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "reference_minutes": 25.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 24.096385542168676, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4166666666666667, "reference_TS": 0.45103092783505155, "conditional_FGA": 6.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.421052631578948, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Andre Jackson Jr.", "Chucky Hepburn", "Otega Oweh", "Robert McCray V", "Trey Jemison III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction.", "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "alternate_actual_preseason_reference_branches": [ { "reference_date": "2026-10-07T00:00Z", "scenario": "Alternative actual preseason role; conditional return not coach commitment", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 20.281690140845072, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0204081632653061, "conditional_FGA": 5.972222222222222, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.4705882352941178, "conditional_2PA": 5.972222222222222 }, { "player_id": "3133626", "player": "Kenrich Williams", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 20.281690140845072, "creation_assist_share": 0.07142857142857142, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.75, "conditional_FGA": 6.646953405017921, "conditional_3PA": 4.258064516129032, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.388888888888889 }, { "player_id": "4683778", "player": "Jared McCain", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 18.028169014084508, "creation_assist_share": 0.17857142857142858, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6, "reference_TS": 0.6, "conditional_FGA": 10.905017921146953, "conditional_3PA": 8.516129032258064, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.388888888888889 }, { "player_id": "4900671", "player": "Ajay Mitchell", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 20.281690140845072, "creation_assist_share": 0.14285714285714285, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.35714285714285715, "reference_TS": 0.5705394190871369, "conditional_FGA": 8.101254480286737, "conditional_3PA": 2.129032258064516, "conditional_FTA": 7.411764705882353, "conditional_2PA": 5.972222222222222 }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "reference_minutes": 31.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 34.929577464788736, "creation_assist_share": 0.21428571428571427, "reference_AST": 6.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8333333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.8333333333333334, "conditional_FGA": 9.970430107526882, "conditional_3PA": 6.387096774193548, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.5833333333333335 }, { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "reference_minutes": 26.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 29.295774647887324, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.9, "reference_TS": 0.8333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 5.842293906810036, "conditional_3PA": 1.064516129032258, "conditional_FTA": 6.176470588235294, "conditional_2PA": 4.777777777777778 }, { "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 7.887323943661972, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.4098360655737705, "conditional_FGA": 4.517921146953405, "conditional_3PA": 2.129032258064516, "conditional_FTA": 2.4705882352941178, "conditional_2PA": 2.388888888888889 }, { "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "reference_minutes": 25.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 28.169014084507044, "creation_assist_share": 0.07142857142857142, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5714285714285714, "reference_TS": 0.5710659898477157, "conditional_FGA": 8.36111111111111, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.4705882352941178, "conditional_2PA": 8.36111111111111 }, { "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.774647887323944, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.25, "conditional_FGA": 4.517921146953405, "conditional_3PA": 2.129032258064516, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.388888888888889 }, { "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.267605633802816, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.1666666666666667, "reference_TS": 1.1666666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 3.453405017921147, "conditional_3PA": 1.064516129032258, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.388888888888889 }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "reference_minutes": 30.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 33.80281690140845, "creation_assist_share": 0.07142857142857142, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7857142857142857, "reference_TS": 0.7857142857142857, "conditional_FGA": 7.711469534050179, "conditional_3PA": 5.32258064516129, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.388888888888889 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Andre Jackson Jr.", "Chucky Hepburn", "Otega Oweh", "Robert McCray V", "Trey Jemison III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." }, { "reference_date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "scenario": "Alternative actual preseason role; conditional return not coach commitment", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "reference_minutes": 25.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 26.785714285714285, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 0.9717314487632509, "conditional_FGA": 10.681818181818182, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 10.681818181818182 }, { "player_id": "2991350", "player": "Alex Caruso", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 18.214285714285715, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 0.872093023255814, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4278073", "player": "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.285714285714285, "creation_assist_share": 0.14705882352941177, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.3, "reference_TS": 1.257396449704142, "conditional_FGA": 5.136363636363637, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.1363636363636362 }, { "player_id": "4593803", "player": "Jalen Williams", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 20.357142857142858, "creation_assist_share": 0.17647058823529413, "reference_AST": 6.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7272727272727273, "reference_TS": 0.7272727272727273, "conditional_FGA": 11.545454545454545, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 8.545454545454545 }, { "player_id": "4683692", "player": "Cason Wallace", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.285714285714285, "creation_assist_share": 0.17647058823529413, "reference_AST": 6.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3125, "reference_TS": 0.3941441441441441, "conditional_FGA": 8.272727272727273, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.2727272727272725 }, { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.357142857142858, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 6.2727272727272725, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.2727272727272725 }, { "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "reference_minutes": 6.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.428571428571429, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": null, "reference_TS": 1.1363636363636365, "conditional_FGA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 8.571428571428571, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "3133626", "player": "Kenrich Williams", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.16666666666666666, "conditional_FGA": 9.204545454545455, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.2045454545454546 }, { "player_id": "4683778", "player": "Jared McCain", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.214285714285715, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 11.34090909090909, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.340909090909091 }, { "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.714285714285714, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.26595744680851063, "conditional_FGA": 2.1363636363636362, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.1363636363636362 }, { "player_id": "4900671", "player": "Ajay Mitchell", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.214285714285715, "creation_assist_share": 0.14705882352941177, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2, "reference_TS": 0.275735294117647, "conditional_FGA": 5.136363636363637, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.1363636363636362 }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3, "reference_TS": 0.3, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 23.571428571428573, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7272727272727273, "reference_TS": 0.7331378299120235, "conditional_FGA": 11.272727272727273, "conditional_3PA": 7.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.2727272727272725 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Andre Jackson Jr.", "Chucky Hepburn", "Otega Oweh", "Robert McCray V", "Trey Jemison III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." }, { "reference_date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "scenario": "Alternative actual preseason role; conditional return not coach commitment", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "reference_minutes": 40.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 46.829268292682926, "creation_assist_share": 0.08, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.391304347826087, "reference_TS": 0.4187604690117253, "conditional_FGA": 27.112244897959183, "conditional_3PA": 6.642857142857143, "conditional_FTA": 2.1818181818181817, "conditional_2PA": 20.46938775510204 }, { "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "reference_minutes": 33.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 38.63414634146341, "creation_assist_share": 0.24, "reference_AST": 6.0, "reference_TO": 5.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4444444444444444, "reference_TS": 0.5952380952380952, "conditional_FGA": 10.739795918367347, "conditional_3PA": 1.1071428571428572, "conditional_FTA": 13.090909090909092, "conditional_2PA": 9.63265306122449 }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "reference_minutes": 37.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 43.31707317073171, "creation_assist_share": 0.28, "reference_AST": 7.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.5333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 17.091836734693878, "conditional_3PA": 11.071428571428571, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.020408163265306 }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "reference_minutes": 38.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 44.48780487804878, "creation_assist_share": 0.2, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 5.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.7505773672055427, "conditional_FGA": 18.392857142857142, "conditional_3PA": 9.964285714285714, "conditional_FTA": 3.272727272727273, "conditional_2PA": 8.428571428571429 }, { "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 19.902439024390244, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6944444444444444, "conditional_FGA": 2.3112244897959187, "conditional_3PA": 1.1071428571428572, "conditional_FTA": 2.1818181818181817, "conditional_2PA": 1.2040816326530612 }, { "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.707317073170731, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 1.25, "reference_TS": 1.25, "conditional_FGA": 2.3112244897959187, "conditional_3PA": 1.1071428571428572, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.2040816326530612 }, { "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.878048780487806, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.45955882352941174, "conditional_FGA": 6.020408163265306, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0909090909090908, "conditional_2PA": 6.020408163265306 }, { "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 22.24390243902439, "creation_assist_share": 0.2, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.5102040816326531, "conditional_FGA": 6.020408163265306, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.1818181818181817, "conditional_2PA": 6.020408163265306 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Andre Jackson Jr.", "Chucky Hepburn", "Otega Oweh", "Robert McCray V", "Trey Jemison III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." } ], "unknown_return_roles": [ "Chet Holmgren", "Thomas Sorber", "Nikola Topic", "Jaylin Williams" ], "return_rule": "No current sample => unestimated return workload, no inventedminutes. Current season preseason separate from prior regular seasons." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4222252", "player": "Isaiah Hartenstein", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "13", "3PT": "0-1", "PTS": "0", "AST": "2", "FG": "0-3", "TO": "1", "OREB": "0", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "2991350", "player": "Alex Caruso", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "15", "3PT": "0-1", "PTS": "6", "AST": "1", "FG": "3-5", "TO": "1", "OREB": "1", "FT": "0-1" }, { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4278073", "player": "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "23", "3PT": "1-1", "PTS": "15", "AST": "6", "FG": "5-6", "TO": "1", "OREB": "0", "FT": "4-5" }, { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4593803", "player": "Jalen Williams", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "21", "3PT": "1-4", "PTS": "16", "AST": "3", "FG": "7-14", "TO": "2", "OREB": "0", "FT": "1-3" }, { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4683692", "player": "Cason Wallace", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "20", "3PT": "1-5", "PTS": "7", "AST": "1", "FG": "3-7", "TO": "3", "OREB": "0", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "21", "3PT": "1-4", "PTS": "7", "AST": "2", "FG": "3-8", "TO": "2", "OREB": "0", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "7", "3PT": "0-1", "PTS": "0", "AST": "0", "FG": "0-1", "TO": "1", "OREB": "0", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "4", "3PT": "0-0", "PTS": "2", "AST": "0", "FG": "1-1", "TO": "0", "OREB": "0", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "19", "3PT": "0-0", "PTS": "10", "AST": "1", "FG": "4-5", "TO": "2", "OREB": "0", "FT": "2-2" }, { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "3133626", "player": "Kenrich Williams", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "19", "3PT": "2-3", "PTS": "7", "AST": "0", "FG": "2-8", "TO": "2", "OREB": "0", "FT": "1-2" }, { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "5", "3PT": "1-1", "PTS": "7", "AST": "1", "FG": "3-3", "TO": "0", "OREB": "0", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4683778", "player": "Jared McCain", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "19", "3PT": "6-12", "PTS": "20", "AST": "2", "FG": "6-13", "TO": "0", "OREB": "0", "FT": "2-2" }, { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "14", "3PT": "0-0", "PTS": "0", "AST": "3", "FG": "0-2", "TO": "1", "OREB": "0", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "24", "3PT": "0-2", "PTS": "2", "AST": "0", "FG": "1-3", "TO": "0", "OREB": "1", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "15", "3PT": "0-0", "PTS": "8", "AST": "0", "FG": "3-5", "TO": "0", "OREB": "1", "FT": "2-2" }, { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "25", "3PT": "1-4", "PTS": "7", "AST": "0", "FG": "2-6", "TO": "0", "OREB": "0", "FT": "2-4" } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "points", "adjustment_units": "points", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 113.01829268292684, 113.0548780487805 ], "Primary": [ 112.6245370599884, 110.08751540011895 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 114.51829000000001, 111.5548775 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 114.51829000000001, 111.5548775 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "https://www.nba.com/players/transactions", "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612760/thunder" ], "findings": "Latest SGA/Jalen Williams/Caruso/Wallace/Hartenstein first unit. SGA final tune-up undecided. Otega Oweh newly OUT after 15 minutes excluded; Holmgren/Mitchell/Sorber/Topic/Jaylin Williams conditional returns.", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "2991350", "player": "Alex Caruso", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4278073", "player": "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4222252", "player": "Isaiah Hartenstein", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4433255", "player": "Chet Holmgren", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-13T22:32Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4683778", "player": "Jared McCain", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4685802", "player": "Robert McCray V", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4900671", "player": "Ajay Mitchell", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-13T22:29Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-15T01:22Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5061603", "player": "Thomas Sorber", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-13T22:28Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": 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"creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "reference_minutes": 4.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 3.855421686746988, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.108695652173913, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.108695652173913 }, { "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.313253012048193, "creation_assist_share": 0.045454545454545456, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8, "reference_TS": 0.8503401360544218, "conditional_FGA": 5.543478260869565, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.210526315789474, "conditional_2PA": 5.543478260869565 }, { "player_id": "3133626", "player": "Kenrich Williams", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.313253012048193, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.375, "reference_TS": 0.3941441441441441, "conditional_FGA": 8.543478260869566, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.210526315789474, "conditional_2PA": 5.543478260869565 }, { "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "reference_minutes": 5.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 4.819277108433735, "creation_assist_share": 0.045454545454545456, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.1666666666666667, "reference_TS": 1.1666666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 3.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 }, { "player_id": "4683778", "player": "Jared McCain", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.313253012048193, "creation_assist_share": 0.09090909090909091, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6923076923076923, "reference_TS": 0.7204610951008645, "conditional_FGA": 13.108695652173914, "conditional_3PA": 12.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.210526315789474, "conditional_2PA": 1.108695652173913 }, { "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.493975903614459, "creation_assist_share": 0.13636363636363635, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 23.132530120481928, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.3333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 3.108695652173913, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.108695652173913 }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "reference_minutes": 25.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 24.096385542168676, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4166666666666667, "reference_TS": 0.45103092783505155, "conditional_FGA": 6.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.421052631578948, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 } ], "conclusion": "Already absent from latest reference; actual teammates carry displayed opportunity. Return conditional, no repeated full-player deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Pools are descriptive subsets of team240minutes; never sum separate missing-player pools." }, { "incumbent_id": "5106270", "incumbent": "Otega Oweh", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-15T01:22Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "two_prior_season_rows": [], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "MIN": "15", "3PT": "0-0", "PTS": "8", "AST": "0", "FG": "3-5", "TO": "0", "OREB": "1", "FT": "2-2" }, { "event_id": "401898402", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898402", "MIN": "35", "3PT": "0-3", "PTS": "11", "AST": "1", "FG": "5-13", "TO": "2", "OREB": "4", "FT": "1-2" }, { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "MIN": "16", "3PT": "0-0", "PTS": "2", "AST": "0", "FG": "1-3", "TO": "1", "OREB": "0", "FT": "0-0" }, { "event_id": "401898389", "date": "2026-10-07T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898389", "MIN": "28", "3PT": "0-2", "PTS": "6", "AST": "1", "FG": "3-9", "TO": "2", "OREB": "1", "FT": "0-4" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4222252", "player": "Isaiah Hartenstein", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 12.53012048192771, "creation_assist_share": 0.09090909090909091, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 3.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 }, { "player_id": "2991350", "player": "Alex Caruso", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.457831325301205, "creation_assist_share": 0.045454545454545456, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6, "reference_TS": 0.551470588235294, "conditional_FGA": 5.434782608695652, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.105263157894737, 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{ "player_id": "4683692", "player": "Cason Wallace", "reference_minutes": 20.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.27710843373494, "creation_assist_share": 0.045454545454545456, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 7.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 }, { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.240963855421686, "creation_assist_share": 0.09090909090909091, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4375, "reference_TS": 0.4375, "conditional_FGA": 8.434782608695652, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.434782608695652 }, { "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.746987951807229, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "reference_minutes": 4.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 3.855421686746988, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.108695652173913, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.108695652173913 }, { "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.313253012048193, "creation_assist_share": 0.045454545454545456, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8, "reference_TS": 0.8503401360544218, "conditional_FGA": 5.543478260869565, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.210526315789474, "conditional_2PA": 5.543478260869565 }, { "player_id": "3133626", "player": "Kenrich Williams", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.313253012048193, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.375, "reference_TS": 0.3941441441441441, "conditional_FGA": 8.543478260869566, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.210526315789474, "conditional_2PA": 5.543478260869565 }, { "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "reference_minutes": 5.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 4.819277108433735, "creation_assist_share": 0.045454545454545456, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.1666666666666667, "reference_TS": 1.1666666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 3.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 }, { "player_id": "4683778", "player": "Jared McCain", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.313253012048193, "creation_assist_share": 0.09090909090909091, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6923076923076923, "reference_TS": 0.7204610951008645, "conditional_FGA": 13.108695652173914, "conditional_3PA": 12.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.210526315789474, "conditional_2PA": 1.108695652173913 }, { "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.493975903614459, "creation_assist_share": 0.13636363636363635, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 23.132530120481928, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.3333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 3.108695652173913, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.108695652173913 }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "reference_minutes": 25.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 24.096385542168676, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4166666666666667, "reference_TS": 0.45103092783505155, "conditional_FGA": 6.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.421052631578948, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 } ], "conclusion": "Already absent from latest reference; actual teammates carry displayed opportunity. Return conditional, no repeated full-player deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Pools are descriptive subsets of team240minutes; never sum separate missing-player pools." }, { "incumbent_id": "5061603", "incumbent": "Thomas Sorber", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-13T22:28Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "two_prior_season_rows": [], "current_form_separate": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4222252", "player": "Isaiah Hartenstein", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 12.53012048192771, "creation_assist_share": 0.09090909090909091, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 3.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 }, { "player_id": "2991350", "player": "Alex Caruso", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.457831325301205, "creation_assist_share": 0.045454545454545456, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6, "reference_TS": 0.551470588235294, "conditional_FGA": 5.434782608695652, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.105263157894737, "conditional_2PA": 4.434782608695652 }, { "player_id": "4278073", "player": "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander", "reference_minutes": 23.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 22.16867469879518, "creation_assist_share": 0.2727272727272727, "reference_AST": 6.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.9166666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.9146341463414634, "conditional_FGA": 6.543478260869565, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.526315789473684, "conditional_2PA": 5.543478260869565 }, { "player_id": "4593803", "player": "Jalen Williams", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 20.240963855421686, "creation_assist_share": 0.13636363636363635, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5357142857142857, "reference_TS": 0.5221932114882506, "conditional_FGA": 15.08695652173913, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.3157894736842106, "conditional_2PA": 11.08695652173913 }, { "player_id": "4683692", "player": "Cason Wallace", "reference_minutes": 20.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.27710843373494, "creation_assist_share": 0.045454545454545456, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 7.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 }, { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.240963855421686, "creation_assist_share": 0.09090909090909091, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4375, "reference_TS": 0.4375, "conditional_FGA": 8.434782608695652, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.434782608695652 }, { "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.746987951807229, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "reference_minutes": 4.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 3.855421686746988, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.108695652173913, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.108695652173913 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"reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 4.819277108433735, "creation_assist_share": 0.045454545454545456, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.1666666666666667, "reference_TS": 1.1666666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 3.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 }, { "player_id": "4683778", "player": "Jared McCain", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.313253012048193, "creation_assist_share": 0.09090909090909091, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6923076923076923, "reference_TS": 0.7204610951008645, "conditional_FGA": 13.108695652173914, "conditional_3PA": 12.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.210526315789474, "conditional_2PA": 1.108695652173913 }, { "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 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"2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432823/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "97-221", "fieldGoalPct": "43.9", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "61-153", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "39.9", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "23-30", "freeThrowPct": "76.7", "offensiveRebounds": "48", "assists": "120", "turnovers": "35", "points": "278" }, { "player_id": "4432823", "player": "Jaylin Williams", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432823/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "149-352", "fieldGoalPct": "42.3", 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"https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432823/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.4", "scoringEfficiency": "1.332", "shootingEfficiency": "0.56" } ], "current_form_separate": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4222252", "player": "Isaiah Hartenstein", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 12.53012048192771, "creation_assist_share": 0.09090909090909091, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 3.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 }, { "player_id": "2991350", "player": "Alex Caruso", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.457831325301205, "creation_assist_share": 0.045454545454545456, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6, "reference_TS": 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"player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.746987951807229, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "reference_minutes": 4.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 3.855421686746988, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.108695652173913, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.108695652173913 }, { "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.313253012048193, "creation_assist_share": 0.045454545454545456, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8, "reference_TS": 0.8503401360544218, "conditional_FGA": 5.543478260869565, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.210526315789474, "conditional_2PA": 5.543478260869565 }, { "player_id": "3133626", "player": "Kenrich Williams", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.313253012048193, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.375, "reference_TS": 0.3941441441441441, "conditional_FGA": 8.543478260869566, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.210526315789474, "conditional_2PA": 5.543478260869565 }, { "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "reference_minutes": 5.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 4.819277108433735, "creation_assist_share": 0.045454545454545456, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.1666666666666667, "reference_TS": 1.1666666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 3.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 }, { "player_id": "4683778", "player": "Jared McCain", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.313253012048193, "creation_assist_share": 0.09090909090909091, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6923076923076923, "reference_TS": 0.7204610951008645, "conditional_FGA": 13.108695652173914, "conditional_3PA": 12.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.210526315789474, "conditional_2PA": 1.108695652173913 }, { "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.493975903614459, "creation_assist_share": 0.13636363636363635, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 23.132530120481928, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.3333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 3.108695652173913, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.108695652173913 }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "reference_minutes": 25.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 24.096385542168676, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4166666666666667, "reference_TS": 0.45103092783505155, "conditional_FGA": 6.217391304347826, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.421052631578948, "conditional_2PA": 2.217391304347826 } ], "conclusion": "Already absent from latest reference; actual teammates carry displayed opportunity. Return conditional, no repeated full-player deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Pools are descriptive subsets of team240minutes; never sum separate missing-player pools." } ], "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL240_MINUTES_SHOTS_CREATION_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401908622", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 113.01829268292684, 113.0548780487805 ], "Primary": [ 112.6245370599884, 110.08751540011895 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 114.51829000000001, 111.5548775 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 114.51829000000001, 111.5548775 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets", "market": { "id": "401908622", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908622", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.617938+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.821454+00:00", "home_line": 3.5, "away_line": -3.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 224.5, "under_line": 224.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 136.0, "away_ml": -162.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 3.5, "average_total": 224.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.036585365853653684, "combined": 226.07317073170734, "spread_buffer": 3.5365853658536537, "total_difference": 1.5731707317073358 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.036585365853653684, "combined": 226.07317073170734, "spread_buffer": 3.5365853658536537, "total_difference": 1.5731707317073358 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -2.5370216598694526, "combined": 222.71205246010734, "spread_buffer": 0.9629783401305474, "total_difference": -1.7879475398926559 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -2.5370216598694526, "combined": 222.71205246010734, "spread_buffer": 0.9629783401305474, "total_difference": -1.7879475398926559 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -2.963412500000004, "combined": 226.0731675, "spread_buffer": 0.536587499999996, "total_difference": 1.573167500000011 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -2.963412500000004, "combined": 226.0731675, "spread_buffer": 0.536587499999996, "total_difference": 1.573167500000011 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -2.963412500000004, "combined": 226.0731675, "spread_buffer": 0.536587499999996, "total_difference": 1.573167500000011 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -2.963412500000004, "combined": 226.0731675, "spread_buffer": 0.536587499999996, "total_difference": 1.573167500000011 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892515", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892515", "date": "2026-10-16T01:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "5282", "fullName": "Rogers Place", "address": { "city": "Edmonton", "state": "AB", "country": "Canada" }, "indoor": true }, "away": "129764", "away_name": "Utah Mammoth", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "6", "home_name": "Edmonton Oilers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.2183586964074764, 3.4162566882079077 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.2183586964074764, 3.4162566882079077 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.2183586964074764, 3.4162566882079077 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 7, "current_weight": 0.25925925925925924, "prior_rates": [ 3.268292682926829, 2.926829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 3.857142857142857, 2.7142857142857144 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.4390243902439024, 3.2804878048780486 ], "current_rates": [ 4.833333333333333, 3.0 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0408536585365855, "mean_margin_error": 1.1651031894934332, "mean_total_error": 1.8578799249530955, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2499950000000002, 5.249995 ], "home": [ 1.1829200000000002, 5.18292 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.2941008506351395, 3.4417897487252542 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.2941008506351395, 3.4417897487252542 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.2941008506351395, 3.4417897487252542 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2853, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-15T00:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "52c34c3445f9a414a983487152c4386aef5a0f4df759d280912f7f17468318de" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0580661730553012, "mean_margin_error": 1.1735321999404547, "mean_total_error": 1.9050370803767076, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2499950000000002, 5.249995 ], "home": [ 1.1829200000000002, 5.18292 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.249995, 3.18292 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.249995, 3.18292 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.249995, 3.18292 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 68, "official_team_name": "Utah Mammoth" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.43902, "pa": 3.2317, "official_team_id": 22, "official_team_name": "Edmonton Oilers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2499950000000002, 5.249995 ], "home": [ 1.1829200000000002, 5.18292 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.249995, 3.18292 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.249995, 3.18292 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.249995, 3.18292 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 68, "official_team_name": "Utah Mammoth" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.43902, "pa": 3.2317, "official_team_id": 22, "official_team_name": "Edmonton Oilers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2499950000000002, 5.249995 ], "home": [ 1.1829200000000002, 5.18292 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "UTA: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. EDM: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Rogers Place; listed 2026-10-16T01:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892515", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Utah Mammoth", "home": "Edmonton Oilers", "start_et": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T01:00Z", "venue": { "id": "5282", "fullName": "Rogers Place", "address": { "city": "Edmonton", "state": "AB", "country": "Canada" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 9:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 9:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Utah Mammoth", "previous_game": { "id": "401892500", "date": "2026-10-14T01:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "3093", "fullName": "Delta Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Salt Lake City", "state": "UT", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "21", "away_name": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "129764", "home_name": "Utah Mammoth", "home_score": 5.0, "day": 20740.041666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Edmonton Oilers", "previous_game": { "id": "401892502", "date": "2026-10-14T02:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1841", "fullName": "crypto.com Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "6", "away_name": "Edmonton Oilers", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "8", "home_name": "Los Angeles Kings", "home_score": 1.0, "day": 20740.104166666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020117, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020004/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020013/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020015/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020027/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020028/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020036/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020047/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020055/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020056/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", 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"opponentTeamAbbrev": "TOR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482699, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 234, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 234.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Dylan Guenther", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 955, "timeOnIcePerGame": 955.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.47619 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 846, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 846.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020102, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Cooley", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TOR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483431, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 226, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 226.0, "shTimeOnIce": 55, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 55.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Logan Cooley", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 1127, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1127.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.95833 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 595, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 595.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020102, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "But", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TOR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484388, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 5, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 15, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Daniil But", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 600, "timeOnIcePerGame": 600.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 673, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 673.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020102, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Stenlund", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TOR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478831, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 5, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.0, "shTimeOnIce": 235, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 235.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Kevin Stenlund", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 913, "timeOnIcePerGame": 913.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.05263 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1081, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1081.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020102, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Weegar", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TOR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477346, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 10, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 10.0, "shTimeOnIce": 243, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 243.0, "shifts": 27, "shiftsPerGame": 27.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "MacKenzie Weegar", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 1334, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1334.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.4074 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 719, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 719.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020102, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Schmaltz", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TOR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477951, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 220, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 220.0, "shTimeOnIce": 74, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 74.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nick Schmaltz", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 1013, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1013.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.96153 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1145, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1145.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020102, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Marino", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TOR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478507, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 99, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 99.0, "shTimeOnIce": 11, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 11.0, "shifts": 29, "shiftsPerGame": 29.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "John Marino", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 1255, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1255.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.27586 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8479369, "player": "Andrew Peeke", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 849, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 80 }, { "player_id": 8479343, "player": "Clayton Keller", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 698, "PP_seconds": 229, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476389, "player": "Vincent Trocheck", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 93, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8484386, "player": "Dmitri Simashev", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 738, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477220, "player": "Nate Schmidt", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1134, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 87 }, { "player_id": 8480849, "player": "Barrett Hayton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 708, "PP_seconds": 96, "SH_seconds": 36 }, { "player_id": 8479977, "player": "Kailer Yamamoto", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 803, "PP_seconds": 105, "SH_seconds": 11 }, { "player_id": 8478474, "player": "Lawson Crouse", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 724, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 172 }, { "player_id": 8475314, "player": "Anders Lee", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 698, "PP_seconds": 97, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479410, "player": "Mikhail Sergachev", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 924, "PP_seconds": 245, "SH_seconds": 250 }, { "player_id": 8480855, "player": "Jack McBain", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 619, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482699, "player": "Dylan Guenther", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 721, "PP_seconds": 234, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483431, "player": "Logan Cooley", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 846, "PP_seconds": 226, "SH_seconds": 55 }, { "player_id": 8484388, "player": "Daniil But", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 595, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478831, "player": "Kevin Stenlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 673, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 235 }, { "player_id": 8477346, "player": "MacKenzie Weegar", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1081, "PP_seconds": 10, "SH_seconds": 243 }, { "player_id": 8477951, "player": "Nick Schmaltz", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 719, "PP_seconds": 220, "SH_seconds": 74 }, { "player_id": 8478507, "player": "John Marino", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1145, "PP_seconds": 99, "SH_seconds": 11 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14510, "PP_seconds": 1675, "SH_seconds": 1338 }, "conditional_branches": [], "return_branches": "Any return depends on current official clearance; prior actual role samples retained, future minutes unestimated.", "PP_units": "Unknown final units; official actual strength exposure retained, no roster-order inference", "line_combinations": "Latest actual official skaters and retained prior previews; October15 final lines not announced.", "OT_note": "Observed workload includes any OT; not a forecast of penalties or OT." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8477951, "name": { "default": "N. Schmaltz" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:53", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8479343, "name": { "default": "C. Keller" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:27", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8482699, "name": { "default": "D. Guenther" }, "position": "R", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:55", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8476389, "name": { "default": "V. Trocheck" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:52", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8480855, "name": { "default": "J. McBain" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:24", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8480849, "name": { "default": "B. Hayton" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:00", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8484388, "name": { "default": "D. But" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:00", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8479977, "name": { "default": "K. Yamamoto" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:19", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8478474, "name": { "default": "L. Crouse" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:56", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8475314, "name": { "default": "A. Lee" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:15", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8478831, "name": { "default": "K. Stenlund" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:13", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8483431, "name": { "default": "L. Cooley" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:47", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8478507, "name": { "default": "J. Marino" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:55", "shifts": 29 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8479369, "name": { "default": "A. Peeke" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:29", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8484386, "name": { "default": "D. Simashev" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:18", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8477346, "name": { "default": "M. Weegar" }, "position": "D", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:14", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8477220, "name": { "default": "N. Schmidt" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:27", "shifts": 29 }, { "event_id": 2026020102, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "playerId": 8479410, "name": { "default": "M. Sergachev", "cs": "M. Serga\u010dov", "fi": "M. Sergatshov", "sk": "M. Serga\u010dov" }, "position": "D", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:39", "shifts": 28 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.2183586964074764, 3.4162566882079077 ], "Primary": [ 3.2941008506351395, 3.4417897487252542 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.249995, 3.18292 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.249995, 3.18292 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020102/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479619/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483472/landing" ], "findings": "Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8484388, "player": "Daniil But", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8479619, "player": "Michael Carcone", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8483431, "player": "Logan Cooley", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8478474, "player": "Lawson Crouse", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8482699, "player": "Dylan Guenther", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8480849, "player": "Barrett Hayton", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8479343, "player": "Clayton Keller", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8475314, "player": "Anders Lee", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8480855, "player": "Jack McBain", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8477070, "player": "Liam O'Brien", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8477951, "player": "Nick Schmaltz", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8478831, "player": "Kevin Stenlund", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8476389, "player": "Vincent Trocheck", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8479977, "player": "Kailer Yamamoto", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8480084, "player": "Nick DeSimone", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8483472, "player": "Maveric Lamoureux", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8478507, "player": "John Marino", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8479369, "player": "Andrew Peeke", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8477220, "player": "Nate Schmidt", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8479410, "player": "Mikhail Sergachev", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8484386, "player": "Dmitri Simashev", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8477346, "player": "MacKenzie Weegar", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8482657, "player": "Sebastian Cossa", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8478872, "player": "Karel Vejmelka", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Utah Mammoth", "abbreviation": "UTAH", "player": "Michael Carcone", "player_id": "4031645", "injuries": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-10T22:33Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/129764/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.159101+00:00" }, { "team": "Utah Mammoth", "abbreviation": "UTAH", "player": "Maveric Lamoureux", "player_id": "5080177", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T21:02Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/129764/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.159101+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8479619, "incumbent": "Michael Carcone", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-10T22:33Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8479369, "player": "Andrew Peeke", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 849, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 80 }, { "player_id": 8479343, "player": "Clayton Keller", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 698, "PP_seconds": 229, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476389, "player": "Vincent Trocheck", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 93, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8484386, "player": "Dmitri Simashev", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 738, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477220, "player": "Nate Schmidt", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1134, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 87 }, { "player_id": 8480849, "player": "Barrett Hayton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 708, "PP_seconds": 96, "SH_seconds": 36 }, { "player_id": 8479977, "player": "Kailer Yamamoto", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 803, "PP_seconds": 105, "SH_seconds": 11 }, { "player_id": 8478474, "player": "Lawson Crouse", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 724, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 172 }, { "player_id": 8475314, "player": "Anders Lee", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 698, "PP_seconds": 97, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479410, "player": "Mikhail Sergachev", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 924, "PP_seconds": 245, "SH_seconds": 250 }, { "player_id": 8480855, "player": "Jack McBain", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 619, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482699, "player": "Dylan Guenther", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 721, "PP_seconds": 234, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483431, "player": "Logan Cooley", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 846, "PP_seconds": 226, "SH_seconds": 55 }, { "player_id": 8484388, "player": "Daniil But", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 595, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478831, "player": "Kevin Stenlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 673, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 235 }, { "player_id": 8477346, "player": "MacKenzie Weegar", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1081, "PP_seconds": 10, "SH_seconds": 243 }, { "player_id": 8477951, "player": "Nick Schmaltz", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 719, "PP_seconds": 220, "SH_seconds": 74 }, { "player_id": 8478507, "player": "John Marino", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1145, "PP_seconds": 99, "SH_seconds": 11 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8479619, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479619/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 12, "avgToi": "11:26", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.5, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 53, "goals": 7, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 36, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 19, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.093333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 75, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Utah Hockey Club", "fr": "Club de hockey de l'Utah" }, "teamName": { "default": "Utah Hockey Club", "fr": "Club de hockey de l'Utah" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Utah", "fr": "de l'Utah" } }, { "assists": 15, "avgToi": "12:44", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.451613, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 79, "goals": 16, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 31, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.108844, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 147, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Mammoth" }, "teamName": { "default": "Utah Mammoth", "fr": "Mammoth de l'Utah" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Utah", "fr": "de l'Utah" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "13:55", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.6, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 10, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Mammoth" }, "teamName": { "default": "Utah Mammoth", "fr": "Mammoth de l'Utah" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Utah", "fr": "de l'Utah" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "12:29", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.5, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.058824, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 17, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Mammoth" }, "teamName": { "default": "Utah Mammoth", "fr": "Mammoth de l'Utah" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Utah", "fr": "de l'Utah" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8483472, "incumbent": "Maveric Lamoureux", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T21:02Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8479369, "player": "Andrew Peeke", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 849, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 80 }, { "player_id": 8479343, "player": "Clayton Keller", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 698, "PP_seconds": 229, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476389, "player": "Vincent Trocheck", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 93, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8484386, "player": "Dmitri Simashev", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 738, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477220, "player": "Nate Schmidt", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1134, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 87 }, { "player_id": 8480849, "player": "Barrett Hayton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 708, "PP_seconds": 96, "SH_seconds": 36 }, { "player_id": 8479977, "player": "Kailer Yamamoto", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 803, "PP_seconds": 105, "SH_seconds": 11 }, { "player_id": 8478474, "player": "Lawson Crouse", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 724, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 172 }, { "player_id": 8475314, "player": "Anders Lee", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 698, "PP_seconds": 97, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479410, "player": "Mikhail Sergachev", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 924, "PP_seconds": 245, "SH_seconds": 250 }, { "player_id": 8480855, "player": "Jack McBain", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 619, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482699, "player": "Dylan Guenther", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 721, "PP_seconds": 234, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483431, "player": "Logan Cooley", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 846, "PP_seconds": 226, "SH_seconds": 55 }, { "player_id": 8484388, "player": "Daniil But", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 595, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478831, "player": "Kevin Stenlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 673, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 235 }, { "player_id": 8477346, "player": "MacKenzie Weegar", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1081, "PP_seconds": 10, "SH_seconds": 243 }, { "player_id": 8477951, "player": "Nick Schmaltz", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 719, "PP_seconds": 220, "SH_seconds": 74 }, { "player_id": 8478507, "player": "John Marino", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1145, "PP_seconds": 99, "SH_seconds": 11 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8483472, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483472/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "16:07", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 15, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 42, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.058824, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 17, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Utah Hockey Club", "fr": "Club de hockey de l'Utah" }, "teamName": { "default": "Utah Hockey Club", "fr": "Club de hockey de l'Utah" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Utah", "fr": "de l'Utah" } }, { "assists": 11, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 42, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 48, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 13, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Tucson Roadrunners" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Tucson Roadrunners" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "14:39", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Mammoth" }, "teamName": { "default": "Utah Mammoth", "fr": "Mammoth de l'Utah" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Utah", "fr": "de l'Utah" } }, { "assists": 15, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 65, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 75, "plusMinus": 7, "points": 20, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Tucson Roadrunners" } } ] } } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8475314, 8476389, 8477070, 8477220, 8477346, 8477951, 8478474, 8478507, 8478831, 8478872, 8479343, 8479369, 8479410, 8479619, 8479977, 8480084, 8480849, 8480855, 8482657, 8482699, 8483431, 8483472, 8484386, 8484388 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 54, "skaterFullName": "Anders Lee", "goals": 29, "evGoals": 24, "ppGoals": 5, "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "shots": 233, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 25, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 9, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.12446, "evPoints": 45, "playerId": 8475314, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1023.6219, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 59, "skaterFullName": "Vincent Trocheck", "goals": 26, "evGoals": 15, "ppGoals": 5, "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "shots": 202, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 33, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 12, "gameWinningGoals": 7, "shootingPct": 0.12871, "evPoints": 40, "playerId": 8476389, "shGoals": 6, "shPoints": 7, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1265.939, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 28, "points": 2, "skaterFullName": "Liam O'Brien", "goals": 0, "evGoals": 0, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "shots": 34, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 2, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.0, "evPoints": 2, "playerId": 8477070, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 557.8214, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 80, "points": 19, "skaterFullName": "Nate Schmidt", "goals": 5, "evGoals": 5, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "shots": 70, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 14, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 4, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.07142, "evPoints": 15, "playerId": 8477220, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 991.775, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 81, "points": 47, "skaterFullName": "MacKenzie Weegar", "goals": 8, "evGoals": 4, "ppGoals": 4, "teamAbbrevs": "CGY", "shots": 184, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 39, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 21, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.04347, "evPoints": 24, "playerId": 8477346, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 2, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1449.8641, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 63, "skaterFullName": "Nick Schmaltz", 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"teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 7779, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1111.28571, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.92452 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5921, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 845.85714, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Simashev", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484386, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 15, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.14285, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 344, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 49.14285, "shifts": 154, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Dmitri Simashev", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 6280, "timeOnIcePerGame": 897.14285, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.77922 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4199, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 599.85714, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "But", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484388, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 312, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 44.57142, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 105, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Daniil But", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 4511, "timeOnIcePerGame": 644.42857, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.9619 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892515", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.2183586964074764, 3.4162566882079077 ], "Primary": [ 3.2941008506351395, 3.4417897487252542 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.249995, 3.18292 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.249995, 3.18292 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020117, "team": "EDM", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 710, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 710.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020104, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Dickinson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "LAK", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477450, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 91, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 91.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jason Dickinson", "teamAbbrev": "EDM", "timeOnIce": 801, "timeOnIcePerGame": 801.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 36.40909 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 633, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 633.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", 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"SH_seconds": 185 }, { "player_id": 8478854, "player": "Ryan Shea", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 25, "SH_seconds": 166 }, { "player_id": 8484509, "player": "Josh Samanski", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 383, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476473, "player": "Connor Murphy", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1227, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 241 }, { "player_id": 8477953, "player": "Kasperi Kapanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 761, "PP_seconds": 143, "SH_seconds": 162 }, { "player_id": 8480834, "player": "Ty Emberson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 746, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486161, "player": "Owen Michaels", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 896, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8478402, "player": "Connor McDavid", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1057, "PP_seconds": 140, "SH_seconds": 100 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15198, "PP_seconds": 840, "SH_seconds": 1504 }, 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Shea" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:37", "shifts": 32 }, { "event_id": 2026020104, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "EDM", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020104/boxscore", "playerId": 8475218, "name": { "default": "M. Ekholm" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:59", "shifts": 29 }, { "event_id": 2026020104, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "EDM", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020104/boxscore", "playerId": 8480834, "name": { "default": "T. Emberson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:26", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020104, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "EDM", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020104/boxscore", "playerId": 8482166, "name": { "default": "S. Mukhamadullin" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:59", "shifts": 16 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.2183586964074764, 3.4162566882079077 ], "Primary": [ 3.2941008506351395, 3.4417897487252542 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.249995, 3.18292 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.249995, 3.18292 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020104/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475786/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482703/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8476454/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483512/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478013/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480831/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477406/landing" ], "findings": "Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8482703, "player": "Colton Dach", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8477450, "player": "Jason Dickinson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8477934, "player": "Leon Draisaitl", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8480029, "player": "Alex Formenton", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8479365, "player": "Trent Frederic", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8480842, "player": "Filip Hallander", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8483455, "player": "Isaac Howard", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8475786, "player": "Zach Hyman", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8477406, "player": "Mattias Janmark", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8479368, "player": "Max Jones", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8478472, "player": "Mathieu Joseph", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8477953, "player": "Kasperi Kapanen", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8478402, "player": "Connor McDavid", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8486161, "player": "Owen Michaels", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8476454, "player": "Ryan Nugent-Hopkins", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8481617, "player": "Vasily Podkolzin", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8484509, "player": "Josh Samanski", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8483512, "player": "Matt Savoie", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8480803, "player": "Evan Bouchard", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8475218, "player": "Mattias Ekholm", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8480834, "player": "Ty Emberson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8482166, "player": "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8476473, "player": "Connor Murphy", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8480831, "player": "Alec Regula", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8478854, "player": "Ryan Shea", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8478013, "player": "Jake Walman", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8475883, "player": "Frederik Andersen", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8477465, "player": "Tristan Jarry", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8482221, "player": "Devon Levi", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Edmonton Oilers", "abbreviation": "EDM", "player": "Colton Dach", "player_id": "4874940", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-07T20:49Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/6/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.892852+00:00" }, { "team": "Edmonton Oilers", "abbreviation": "EDM", "player": "Mattias Janmark", "player_id": "3042085", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:52Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/6/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.892852+00:00" }, { "team": "Edmonton Oilers", "abbreviation": "EDM", "player": "Ryan Nugent-Hopkins", "player_id": "2562624", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-01T14:08Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/6/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.892852+00:00" }, { "team": "Edmonton Oilers", "abbreviation": "EDM", "player": "Matt Savoie", "player_id": "5080153", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-01T14:05Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/6/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.892852+00:00" }, { "team": "Edmonton Oilers", "abbreviation": "EDM", "player": "Zach Hyman", "player_id": "5509", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/6/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.892852+00:00" }, { "team": "Edmonton Oilers", "abbreviation": "EDM", "player": "Alec Regula", "player_id": "4331611", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-01T14:11Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/6/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.892852+00:00" }, { "team": "Edmonton Oilers", "abbreviation": "EDM", "player": "Jake Walman", "player_id": "3151136", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/6/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.892852+00:00" }, { "team": "Edmonton Oilers", "abbreviation": "EDM", "player": "Frederik Andersen", "player_id": "2517899", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:53Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/6/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.892852+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8482703, "incumbent": "Colton Dach", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-07T20:49Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477450, "player": "Jason Dickinson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 710, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 91 }, { "player_id": 8482166, "player": "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 633, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8479365, "player": "Trent Frederic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 419, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475218, "player": "Mattias Ekholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1061, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8478472, "player": "Mathieu Joseph", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 914, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 98 }, { "player_id": 8480842, "player": "Filip Hallander", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 615, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480803, "player": "Evan Bouchard", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1293, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 140 }, { "player_id": 8477934, "player": "Leon Draisaitl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1069, "PP_seconds": 142, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483455, "player": "Isaac Howard", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 438, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481617, "player": "Vasily Podkolzin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 965, "PP_seconds": 140, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480029, "player": "Alex Formenton", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 845, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 185 }, { "player_id": 8478854, "player": "Ryan Shea", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 25, "SH_seconds": 166 }, { "player_id": 8484509, "player": "Josh Samanski", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 383, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476473, "player": "Connor Murphy", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1227, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 241 }, { "player_id": 8477953, "player": "Kasperi Kapanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 761, "PP_seconds": 143, "SH_seconds": 162 }, { "player_id": 8480834, "player": "Ty Emberson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 746, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486161, "player": "Owen Michaels", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 896, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8478402, "player": "Connor McDavid", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1057, "PP_seconds": 140, "SH_seconds": 100 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8482703, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482703/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 5, "avgToi": "12:08", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.5, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 25, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 17, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.074074, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 27, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } }, { "assists": 14, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 33, "goals": 12, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 21, "plusMinus": -9, "points": 26, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Rockford IceHogs" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 12, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Rockford IceHogs" } }, { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "11:41", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.366197, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 53, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 47, "plusMinus": -15, "points": 9, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.057692, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 52, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "10:09", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 5, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.333333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 6, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "8:27", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "13:23", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.548387, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 5, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8477406, "incumbent": "Mattias Janmark", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:52Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477450, "player": "Jason Dickinson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 710, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 91 }, { "player_id": 8482166, "player": "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 633, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8479365, "player": "Trent Frederic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 419, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475218, "player": "Mattias Ekholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1061, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8478472, "player": "Mathieu Joseph", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 914, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 98 }, { "player_id": 8480842, "player": "Filip Hallander", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 615, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480803, "player": "Evan Bouchard", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1293, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 140 }, { "player_id": 8477934, "player": "Leon Draisaitl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1069, "PP_seconds": 142, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483455, "player": "Isaac Howard", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 438, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481617, "player": "Vasily Podkolzin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 965, "PP_seconds": 140, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480029, "player": "Alex Formenton", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 845, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 185 }, { "player_id": 8478854, "player": "Ryan Shea", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 25, "SH_seconds": 166 }, { "player_id": 8484509, "player": "Josh Samanski", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 383, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476473, "player": "Connor Murphy", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1227, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 241 }, { "player_id": 8477953, "player": "Kasperi Kapanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 761, "PP_seconds": 143, "SH_seconds": 162 }, { "player_id": 8480834, "player": "Ty Emberson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 746, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486161, "player": "Owen Michaels", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 896, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8478402, "player": "Connor McDavid", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1057, "PP_seconds": 140, "SH_seconds": 100 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8477406, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477406/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 16, "avgToi": "13:18", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.405858, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 80, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 18, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.039216, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 3, "shots": 51, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "12:17", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.292135, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 22, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 14, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 15, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "11:51", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.368421, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 43, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": -8, "points": 8, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.041667, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 24, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8476454, "incumbent": "Ryan Nugent-Hopkins", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-01T14:08Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477450, "player": "Jason Dickinson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 710, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 91 }, { "player_id": 8482166, "player": "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 633, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8479365, "player": "Trent Frederic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 419, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475218, "player": "Mattias Ekholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1061, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8478472, "player": "Mathieu Joseph", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 914, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 98 }, { "player_id": 8480842, "player": "Filip Hallander", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 615, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480803, "player": "Evan Bouchard", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1293, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 140 }, { "player_id": 8477934, "player": "Leon Draisaitl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1069, "PP_seconds": 142, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483455, "player": "Isaac Howard", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 438, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481617, "player": "Vasily Podkolzin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 965, "PP_seconds": 140, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480029, "player": "Alex Formenton", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 845, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 185 }, { "player_id": 8478854, "player": "Ryan Shea", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 25, "SH_seconds": 166 }, { "player_id": 8484509, "player": "Josh Samanski", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 383, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476473, "player": "Connor Murphy", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1227, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 241 }, { "player_id": 8477953, "player": "Kasperi Kapanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 761, "PP_seconds": 143, "SH_seconds": 162 }, { "player_id": 8480834, "player": "Ty Emberson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 746, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486161, "player": "Owen Michaels", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 896, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8478402, "player": "Connor McDavid", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1057, "PP_seconds": 140, "SH_seconds": 100 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8476454, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8476454/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 29, "avgToi": "18:58", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.48474, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "gamesPlayed": 78, "goals": 20, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 24, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 49, "powerPlayGoals": 7, "powerPlayPoints": 20, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.121951, "shorthandedGoals": 2, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 164, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 14, "avgToi": "19:35", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.413793, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 22, "goals": 6, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 20, "powerPlayGoals": 4, "powerPlayPoints": 8, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.125, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 48, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 36, "avgToi": "19:04", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.473829, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 72, "goals": 20, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 21, "plusMinus": -9, "points": 56, "powerPlayGoals": 11, "powerPlayPoints": 29, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.150376, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 133, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "17:46", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.518519, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.285714, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 7, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8483512, "incumbent": "Matt Savoie", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-01T14:05Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477450, "player": "Jason Dickinson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 710, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 91 }, { "player_id": 8482166, "player": "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 633, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8479365, "player": "Trent Frederic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 419, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475218, "player": "Mattias Ekholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1061, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8478472, "player": "Mathieu Joseph", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 914, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 98 }, { "player_id": 8480842, "player": "Filip Hallander", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 615, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480803, "player": "Evan Bouchard", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1293, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 140 }, { "player_id": 8477934, "player": "Leon Draisaitl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1069, "PP_seconds": 142, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483455, "player": "Isaac Howard", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 438, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481617, "player": "Vasily Podkolzin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 965, "PP_seconds": 140, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480029, "player": "Alex Formenton", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 845, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 185 }, { "player_id": 8478854, "player": "Ryan Shea", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 25, "SH_seconds": 166 }, { "player_id": 8484509, "player": "Josh Samanski", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 383, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476473, "player": "Connor Murphy", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1227, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 241 }, { "player_id": 8477953, "player": "Kasperi Kapanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 761, "PP_seconds": 143, "SH_seconds": 162 }, { "player_id": 8480834, "player": "Ty Emberson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 746, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486161, "player": "Owen Michaels", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 896, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8478402, "player": "Connor McDavid", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1057, "PP_seconds": 140, "SH_seconds": 100 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8483512, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483512/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "12:31", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.666667, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 6, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 35, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 66, "goals": 19, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 28, "plusMinus": 21, "points": 54, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Bakersfield Condors" } }, { "assists": 19, "avgToi": "14:47", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.4, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 18, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 24, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 37, "powerPlayGoals": 5, "powerPlayPoints": 7, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.130435, "shorthandedGoals": 2, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 138, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 1, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 1, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Bakersfield Condors" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "14:17", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 10, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8475786, "incumbent": "Zach Hyman", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477450, "player": "Jason Dickinson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 710, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 91 }, { "player_id": 8482166, "player": "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 633, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8479365, "player": "Trent Frederic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 419, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475218, "player": "Mattias Ekholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1061, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8478472, "player": "Mathieu Joseph", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 914, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 98 }, { "player_id": 8480842, "player": "Filip Hallander", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 615, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480803, "player": "Evan Bouchard", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1293, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 140 }, { "player_id": 8477934, "player": "Leon Draisaitl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1069, "PP_seconds": 142, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483455, "player": "Isaac Howard", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 438, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481617, "player": "Vasily Podkolzin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 965, "PP_seconds": 140, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480029, "player": "Alex Formenton", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 845, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 185 }, { "player_id": 8478854, "player": "Ryan Shea", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 25, "SH_seconds": 166 }, { "player_id": 8484509, "player": "Josh Samanski", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 383, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476473, "player": "Connor Murphy", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1227, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 241 }, { "player_id": 8477953, "player": "Kasperi Kapanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 761, "PP_seconds": 143, "SH_seconds": 162 }, { "player_id": 8480834, "player": "Ty Emberson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 746, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486161, "player": "Owen Michaels", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 896, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8478402, "player": "Connor McDavid", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1057, "PP_seconds": 140, "SH_seconds": 100 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8475786, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475786/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 17, "avgToi": "18:53", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.4, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 7, "gamesPlayed": 73, "goals": 27, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 32, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 44, "powerPlayGoals": 6, "powerPlayPoints": 12, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.128571, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 210, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "17:42", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 15, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 10, "points": 11, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.166667, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 30, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 21, "avgToi": "19:59", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 58, "goals": 31, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 28, "plusMinus": 13, "points": 52, "powerPlayGoals": 10, "powerPlayPoints": 15, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.194969, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 159, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "18:49", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.153846, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 13, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "20:33", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8480831, "incumbent": "Alec Regula", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-01T14:11Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477450, "player": "Jason Dickinson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 710, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 91 }, { "player_id": 8482166, "player": "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 633, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8479365, "player": "Trent Frederic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 419, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475218, "player": "Mattias Ekholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1061, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8478472, "player": "Mathieu Joseph", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 914, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 98 }, { "player_id": 8480842, "player": "Filip Hallander", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 615, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480803, "player": "Evan Bouchard", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1293, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 140 }, { "player_id": 8477934, "player": "Leon Draisaitl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1069, "PP_seconds": 142, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483455, "player": "Isaac Howard", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 438, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481617, "player": "Vasily Podkolzin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 965, "PP_seconds": 140, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480029, "player": "Alex Formenton", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 845, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 185 }, { "player_id": 8478854, "player": "Ryan Shea", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 25, "SH_seconds": 166 }, { "player_id": 8484509, "player": "Josh Samanski", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 383, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476473, "player": "Connor Murphy", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1227, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 241 }, { "player_id": 8477953, "player": "Kasperi Kapanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 761, "PP_seconds": 143, "SH_seconds": 162 }, { "player_id": 8480834, "player": "Ty Emberson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 746, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486161, "player": "Owen Michaels", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 896, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8478402, "player": "Connor McDavid", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1057, "PP_seconds": 140, "SH_seconds": 100 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8480831, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480831/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "14:28", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 29, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 35, "plusMinus": -16, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 18, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 7, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 20, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 25, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 11, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Bakersfield Condors" } }, { "assists": 1, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 16, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Bakersfield Condors" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8478013, "incumbent": "Jake Walman", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-14T13:14Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477450, "player": "Jason Dickinson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 710, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 91 }, { "player_id": 8482166, "player": "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 633, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8479365, "player": "Trent Frederic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 419, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475218, "player": "Mattias Ekholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1061, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8478472, "player": "Mathieu Joseph", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 914, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 98 }, { "player_id": 8480842, "player": "Filip Hallander", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 615, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480803, "player": "Evan Bouchard", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1293, "PP_seconds": 151, "SH_seconds": 140 }, { "player_id": 8477934, "player": "Leon Draisaitl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1069, "PP_seconds": 142, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483455, "player": "Isaac Howard", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 438, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481617, "player": "Vasily Podkolzin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 965, "PP_seconds": 140, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480029, "player": "Alex Formenton", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 845, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 185 }, { "player_id": 8478854, "player": "Ryan Shea", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 25, "SH_seconds": 166 }, { "player_id": 8484509, "player": "Josh Samanski", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 383, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476473, "player": "Connor Murphy", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1227, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 241 }, { "player_id": 8477953, "player": "Kasperi Kapanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 761, "PP_seconds": 143, "SH_seconds": 162 }, { "player_id": 8480834, "player": "Ty Emberson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 746, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486161, "player": "Owen Michaels", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 896, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8478402, "player": "Connor McDavid", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1057, "PP_seconds": 140, "SH_seconds": 100 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8478013, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478013/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 26, "avgToi": "23:11", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 50, "goals": 6, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 36, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 32, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 7, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.048, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 125, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sharks" }, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Sharks", "fr": "Sharks de San Jose" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "San Jose", "fr": "de San Jose" } }, { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "21:26", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 15, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 8, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.025641, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 39, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "20:10", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 22, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 12, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 10, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.052632, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 38, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 12, "avgToi": "18:45", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 53, "goals": 8, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 10, "plusMinus": -17, "points": 20, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.083333, "shorthandedGoals": 2, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 96, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "16:53", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 9, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "14:47", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 5, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } } ] } } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8475218, 8475786, 8475883, 8476454, 8476473, 8477406, 8477450, 8477465, 8477934, 8477953, 8478013, 8478402, 8478472, 8478854, 8479365, 8479368, 8480029, 8480803, 8480831, 8480834, 8480842, 8481617, 8482166, 8482221, 8482703, 8483455, 8483512, 8484509, 8486161 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 65, "points": 33, "skaterFullName": "Mattias Ekholm", "goals": 9, "evGoals": 6, "ppGoals": 3, "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "shots": 143, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 24, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 7, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.06293, "evPoints": 26, "playerId": 8475218, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1331.7692, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 73, "points": 44, "skaterFullName": "Zach Hyman", "goals": 27, "evGoals": 21, "ppGoals": 6, "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "shots": 210, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 17, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 12, "gameWinningGoals": 7, "shootingPct": 0.12857, "evPoints": 32, "playerId": 8475786, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1132.8904, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 78, "points": 49, "skaterFullName": "Ryan Nugent-Hopkins", "goals": 20, "evGoals": 11, "ppGoals": 7, "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "shots": 164, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 29, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 20, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "shootingPct": 0.12195, "evPoints": 27, "playerId": 8476454, "shGoals": 2, "shPoints": 2, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1138.3717, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 68, "points": 19, "skaterFullName": "Connor Murphy", "goals": 2, "evGoals": 2, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "shots": 84, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 17, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.0238, "evPoints": 18, "playerId": 8476473, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1236.897, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 80, "points": 18, "skaterFullName": "Mattias Janmark", "goals": 2, "evGoals": 2, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "shots": 51, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 16, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.03921, "evPoints": 15, "playerId": 8477406, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 3, "timeOnIcePerGame": 797.8375, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 59, "points": 16, "skaterFullName": "Jason Dickinson", "goals": 7, "evGoals": 7, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "shots": 56, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 9, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.125, "evPoints": 16, "playerId": 8477450, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 941.9491, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 71, "points": 106, "skaterFullName": "Leon Draisaitl", "goals": 52, "evGoals": 36, "ppGoals": 16, "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "shots": 240, "otGoals": 6, "assists": 54, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 33, "gameWinningGoals": 11, "shootingPct": 0.21666, "evPoints": 73, "playerId": 8477934, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1291.0422, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 67, "points": 14, "skaterFullName": "Kasperi Kapanen", "goals": 6, "evGoals": 6, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "STL,EDM", "shots": 66, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 8, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0909, "evPoints": 14, "playerId": 8477953, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 715.1791, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 65, "points": 40, "skaterFullName": "Jake Walman", "goals": 7, "evGoals": 7, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "SJS,EDM", "shots": 164, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 33, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 8, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "shootingPct": 0.04268, "evPoints": 31, "playerId": 8478013, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1366.2769, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 67, "points": 100, "skaterFullName": "Connor McDavid", "goals": 26, "evGoals": 17, "ppGoals": 9, "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "shots": 196, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 74, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 31, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.13265, "evPoints": 69, "playerId": 8478402, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1321.8805, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 60, "points": 14, "skaterFullName": "Mathieu Joseph", "goals": 4, "evGoals": 3, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "shots": 69, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 10, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.05797, "evPoints": 13, "playerId": 8478472, "shGoals": 1, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 714.45, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 39, "points": 5, "skaterFullName": "Ryan Shea", "goals": 2, "evGoals": 2, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "PIT", "shots": 19, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 3, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.10526, "evPoints": 4, "playerId": 8478854, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1003.5641, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": 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"evTimeOnIce": 2425, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 606.25, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Hallander", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480842, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 89, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 22.25, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 212, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 53.0, "shifts": 74, "shiftsPerGame": 18.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Filip Hallander", "teamAbbrevs": "PIT,EDM", "timeOnIce": 2726, "timeOnIcePerGame": 681.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 36.83783 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5493, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 915.5, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Podkolzin", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481617, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1359, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 226.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 152, "shiftsPerGame": 25.33333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Vasily Podkolzin", "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "timeOnIce": 6852, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1142.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 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"timeOnIcePerShift": 34.89855 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2860, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 476.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Howard", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483455, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 573, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 95.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 3, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.5, "shifts": 92, "shiftsPerGame": 15.33333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Isaac Howard", "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "timeOnIce": 3436, "timeOnIcePerGame": 572.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 37.34782 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2124, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 424.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Samanski", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484509, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 127, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 25.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 66, "shiftsPerGame": 13.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Josh Samanski", "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "timeOnIce": 2251, "timeOnIcePerGame": 450.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 34.10606 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4354, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 725.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Michaels", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8486161, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 29, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 446, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 74.33333, "shifts": 143, "shiftsPerGame": 23.83333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Owen Michaels", "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "timeOnIce": 4829, "timeOnIcePerGame": 804.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 33.76923 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892515", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.2183586964074764, 3.4162566882079077 ], "Primary": [ 3.2941008506351395, 3.4417897487252542 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.249995, 3.18292 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.249995, 3.18292 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Utah Mammoth at Edmonton Oilers", "market": { "id": "401892515", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892515", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.667990+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.862020+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 180.0, "away_line_price": -218.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -108.0, "home_ml": -130.0, "away_ml": 110.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.19789799180043133, "combined": 6.634615384615384, "spread_buffer": -1.3021020081995687, "total_difference": 0.13461538461538414 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.19789799180043133, "combined": 6.634615384615384, "spread_buffer": -1.3021020081995687, "total_difference": 0.13461538461538414 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.14768889809011476, "combined": 6.735890599360394, "spread_buffer": -1.3523111019098852, "total_difference": 0.2358905993603937 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.14768889809011476, "combined": 6.735890599360394, "spread_buffer": -1.3523111019098852, "total_difference": 0.2358905993603937 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.067075, "combined": 6.432915, "spread_buffer": -1.567075, "total_difference": -0.06708499999999962 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.067075, "combined": 6.432915, "spread_buffer": -1.567075, "total_difference": -0.06708499999999962 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.067075, "combined": 6.432915, "spread_buffer": -1.567075, "total_difference": -0.06708499999999962 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.067075, "combined": 6.432915, "spread_buffer": -1.567075, "total_difference": -0.06708499999999962 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892516", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892516", "date": "2026-10-16T02:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "5060", "fullName": "T-Mobile Arena", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "away": "3", "away_name": "Calgary Flames", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "37", "home_name": "Vegas Golden Knights", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", 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Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 2.5853658536585367, 3.158536585365854 ], "current_rates": [ 2.0, 4.833333333333333 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 8, "current_weight": 0.2857142857142857, "prior_rates": [ 3.231707317073171, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 3.75, 2.5 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0408536585365855, "mean_margin_error": 1.1651031894934332, "mean_total_error": 1.8578799249530955, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.7438950000000002, 4.743895 ], "home": [ 1.1707299999999998, 5.17073 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.464202751513553, 3.522272437822632 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.464202751513553, 3.522272437822632 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.464202751513553, 3.522272437822632 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2853, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-15T00:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "52c34c3445f9a414a983487152c4386aef5a0f4df759d280912f7f17468318de" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0580661730553012, "mean_margin_error": 1.1735321999404547, "mean_total_error": 1.9050370803767076, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.7438950000000002, 4.743895 ], "home": [ 1.1707299999999998, 5.17073 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.53658, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 20, "official_team_name": "Calgary Flames" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54, "official_team_name": "Vegas Golden Knights" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.7438950000000002, 4.743895 ], "home": [ 1.1707299999999998, 5.17073 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.743895, 3.17073 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.743895, 3.17073 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.743895, 3.17073 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.53658, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 20, "official_team_name": "Calgary Flames" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54, "official_team_name": "Vegas Golden Knights" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.6576197724933469 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-14", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.00762625, "mean_margin_error": 1.1676824999999997, "mean_total_error": 1.8810975, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.7438950000000002, 4.743895 ], "home": [ 1.1707299999999998, 5.17073 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "CGY: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. VGK: Olofsson IR, Wotherspoon week-to-week; Connelly/Lavoie and Coghlan actual workloads retained.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 8 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "T-Mobile Arena; listed 2026-10-16T02:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892516", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Calgary Flames", "home": "Vegas Golden Knights", "start_et": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T02:00Z", "venue": { "id": "5060", "fullName": "T-Mobile Arena", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 10:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 10:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Calgary Flames", "previous_game": { "id": "401892501", "date": "2026-10-14T01:45Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1842", "fullName": "Honda Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Anaheim", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "3", "away_name": "Calgary Flames", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "25", "home_name": "Anaheim Ducks", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20740.072916666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Vegas Golden Knights", "previous_game": { "id": "401892499", "date": "2026-10-14T00:45Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1834", "fullName": "Bridgestone Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Nashville", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "37", "away_name": "Vegas Golden Knights", "away_score": 5.0, "home": "27", "home_name": "Nashville Predators", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20740.03125 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020118, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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243 }, { "player_id": 8483495, "player": "Simon Nemec", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1147, "PP_seconds": 48, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15140, "PP_seconds": 690, "SH_seconds": 1630 }, "conditional_branches": [], "return_branches": "Any return depends on current official clearance; prior actual role samples retained, future minutes unestimated.", "PP_units": "Unknown final units; official actual strength exposure retained, no roster-order inference", "line_combinations": "Latest actual official skaters and retained prior previews; October15 final lines not announced.", "OT_note": "Observed workload includes any OT; not a forecast of penalties or OT." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8474150, "name": { "default": "M. Backlund" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:10", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8480028, "name": { "default": "M. Frost" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:40", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8481068, "name": { "default": "Y. Sharangovich", "cs": "J. \u0160arangovi\u010d", "fi": "J. Sharanhovitsh", "sk": "J. \u0160arangovi\u010d" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:18", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8476458, "name": { "default": "R. Strome" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:38", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8482679, "name": { "default": "M. Coronato" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:09", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8484154, "name": { "default": "J. Castagna" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:52", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8483609, "name": { "default": "A. Klapka" }, "position": "R", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "08:30", "shifts": 12 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8484234, "name": { "default": "A. Suniev" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:12", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8484958, "name": { "default": "M. Tsyplakov", "cs": "M. Cyplakov", "sk": "M. Cyplakov" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:37", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8481028, "name": { "default": "M. Pospisil", "cs": "M. Posp\u00ed\u0161il", "sk": "M. Posp\u00ed\u0161il" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:25", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8480797, "name": { "default": "J. Farabee" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:22", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8484860, "name": { "default": "M. Gridin" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:16", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8480860, "name": { "default": "K. Bahl" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:07", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8484768, "name": { "default": "Z. Parekh" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:30", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8480727, "name": { "default": "Z. Whitecloud" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "24:16", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8482165, "name": { "default": "Y. Kuznetsov" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:50", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8478136, "name": { "default": "J. Middleton" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:13", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020103, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "playerId": 8483495, "name": { "default": "S. Nemec", "cs": "\u0160. Nemec", "sk": "\u0160. Nemec" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:55", "shifts": 23 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.571133744304476, 3.5624095416778343 ], "Primary": [ 2.464202751513553, 3.522272437822632 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.743895, 3.17073 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.743895, 3.17073 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020103/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8476456/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8484180/landing" ], "findings": "Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8474150, "player": "Mikael Backlund", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8484154, "player": "Jonathan Castagna", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8482679, "player": "Matt Coronato", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8480797, "player": "Joel Farabee", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8480028, "player": "Morgan Frost", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8484860, "player": "Matvei Gridin", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8484180, "player": "Samuel Honzek", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8476456, "player": "Jonathan Huberdeau", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8483609, "player": "Adam Klapka", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8482747, "player": "Brennan Othmann", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8481028, "player": "Martin Pospisil", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8481068, "player": "Yegor Sharangovich", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8476458, "player": "Ryan Strome", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8484234, "player": "Aydar Suniev", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8484958, "player": "Maxim Tsyplakov", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8480860, "player": "Kevin Bahl", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8477810, "player": "Joel Hanley", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8482165, "player": "Yan Kuznetsov", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8478136, "player": "Jake Middleton", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8483495, "player": "Simon Nemec", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8484768, "player": "Zayne Parekh", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8480727, "player": "Zach Whitecloud", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8482445, "player": "Devin Cooley", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8481692, "player": "Dustin Wolf", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Calgary Flames", "abbreviation": "CGY", "player": "Samuel Honzek", "player_id": "5149191", "injuries": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-12T16:39Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/3/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.705983+00:00" }, { "team": "Calgary Flames", "abbreviation": "CGY", "player": "Jonathan Huberdeau", "player_id": "2562606", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T21:15Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/3/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:03.705983+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8484180, "incumbent": "Samuel Honzek", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-12T16:39Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480028, "player": "Morgan Frost", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 726, "PP_seconds": 90, "SH_seconds": 4 }, { "player_id": 8481068, "player": "Yegor Sharangovich", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 850, "PP_seconds": 48, "SH_seconds": 140 }, { "player_id": 8484234, "player": "Aydar Suniev", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 744, "PP_seconds": 48, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484958, "player": "Maksim Tsyplakov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 497, "PP_seconds": 48, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8480860, "player": "Kevin Bahl", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1083, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 304 }, { "player_id": 8478136, "player": "Jacob Middleton", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 980, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 113 }, { "player_id": 8482679, "player": "Matt Coronato", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 939, "PP_seconds": 90, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480797, "player": "Joel Farabee", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 904, "PP_seconds": 90, "SH_seconds": 228 }, { "player_id": 8484768, "player": "Zayne Parekh", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 720, "PP_seconds": 90, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481028, "player": "Martin Pospisil", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 710, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 95 }, { "player_id": 8476458, "player": "Ryan Strome", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 762, "PP_seconds": 48, "SH_seconds": 8 }, { "player_id": 8480727, "player": "Zach Whitecloud", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1144, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 312 }, { "player_id": 8484154, "player": "Jonathan Castagna", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 592, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 60 }, { "player_id": 8484860, "player": "Matvei Gridin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 766, "PP_seconds": 90, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482165, "player": "Yan Kuznetsov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1039, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 91 }, { "player_id": 8483609, "player": "Adam Klapka", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 510, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474150, "player": "Mikael Backlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1027, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 243 }, { "player_id": 8483495, "player": "Simon Nemec", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1147, "PP_seconds": 48, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8484180, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8484180/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "12:24", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 6, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flames" }, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Flames", "fr": "Flames de Calgary" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Calgary", "fr": "de Calgary" } }, { "assists": 13, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 52, "goals": 8, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 18, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 21, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Wranglers" } }, { "assists": 1, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "Slovakia" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Wranglers" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "12:21", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.545455, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 18, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.090909, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 22, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flames" }, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Flames", "fr": "Flames de Calgary" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Calgary", "fr": "de Calgary" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "15:39", "faceoffWinningPctg": 1.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flames" }, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Flames", "fr": "Flames de Calgary" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Calgary", "fr": "de Calgary" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8476456, "incumbent": "Jonathan Huberdeau", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T21:15Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480028, "player": "Morgan Frost", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 726, "PP_seconds": 90, "SH_seconds": 4 }, { "player_id": 8481068, "player": "Yegor Sharangovich", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 850, "PP_seconds": 48, "SH_seconds": 140 }, { "player_id": 8484234, "player": "Aydar Suniev", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 744, "PP_seconds": 48, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484958, "player": "Maksim Tsyplakov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 497, "PP_seconds": 48, "SH_seconds": 32 }, { "player_id": 8480860, "player": "Kevin Bahl", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1083, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 304 }, { "player_id": 8478136, "player": "Jacob Middleton", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 980, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 113 }, { "player_id": 8482679, "player": "Matt Coronato", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 939, "PP_seconds": 90, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480797, "player": "Joel Farabee", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 904, "PP_seconds": 90, "SH_seconds": 228 }, { "player_id": 8484768, "player": "Zayne Parekh", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 720, "PP_seconds": 90, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481028, 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"ppTimeOnIce": 720, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 120.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 115, "shiftsPerGame": 19.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Matvei Gridin", "teamAbbrevs": "CGY", "timeOnIce": 5240, "timeOnIcePerGame": 873.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.56521 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3089, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 617.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Tsyplakov", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484958, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 320, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 64.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 32, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.4, "shifts": 75, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Maksim Tsyplakov", "teamAbbrevs": "CGY", "timeOnIce": 3441, "timeOnIcePerGame": 688.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.88 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892516", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.571133744304476, 3.5624095416778343 ], "Primary": [ 2.464202751513553, 3.522272437822632 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.743895, 3.17073 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.743895, 3.17073 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020118, "team": "VGK", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 679, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 679.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020101, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Karlsson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NSH", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476448, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 131, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 131.0, "shTimeOnIce": 112, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 112.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "William Karlsson", "teamAbbrev": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 922, "timeOnIcePerGame": 922.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.23529 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 748, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 748.0, "gameDate": 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"R", "lastName": "Stone", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NSH", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475913, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 109, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 109.0, "shTimeOnIce": 110, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 110.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Mark Stone", "teamAbbrev": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 998, "timeOnIcePerGame": 998.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.9 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 731, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 731.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020101, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Connelly", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NSH", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484803, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 109, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 109.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Trevor Connelly", "teamAbbrev": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 840, "timeOnIcePerGame": 840.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.41176 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 840, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 840.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020101, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Howden", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NSH", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479353, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 89, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 89.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Brett Howden", "teamAbbrev": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 929, "timeOnIcePerGame": 929.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.89473 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1119, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1119.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020101, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Lauzon", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NSH", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478468, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 150, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 150.0, "shifts": 28, "shiftsPerGame": 28.0, "shootsCatches": "L", 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"ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 109.0, "shTimeOnIce": 138, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 138.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jack Eichel", "teamAbbrev": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 1074, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1074.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.7 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1038, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1038.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020101, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Hanifin", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NSH", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478396, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 133, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 133.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Noah Hanifin", "teamAbbrev": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 1171, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1171.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.84 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 684, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 684.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020101, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Bowman", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NSH", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483890, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 131, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 131.0, "shTimeOnIce": 45, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 45.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Braeden Bowman", "teamAbbrev": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 860, "timeOnIcePerGame": 860.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.58823 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 782, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 782.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020101, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Lavoie", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NSH", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481534, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 9, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 9.0, "shifts": 14, "shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Raphael Lavoie", "teamAbbrev": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 791, "timeOnIcePerGame": 791.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1024, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1024.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-13", "gameId": 2026020101, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Andersson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NSH", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478397, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 131, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 131.0, "shTimeOnIce": 9, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 9.0, "shifts": 27, "shiftsPerGame": 27.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Rasmus Andersson", "teamAbbrev": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 1164, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1164.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.11111 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8476448, "player": "William Karlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 679, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 112 }, { "player_id": 8476881, "player": "Tomas Hertl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 10 }, { "player_id": 8477964, "player": "Ivan Barbashev", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 839, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475343, "player": "Nic Dowd", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 702, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8475188, "player": "Brayden McNabb", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 888, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 219 }, { "player_id": 8478483, "player": "Mitch Marner", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 712, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 103 }, { "player_id": 8479639, "player": "Dylan Coghlan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 968, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483553, "player": "Marc Gatcomb", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 674, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475913, "player": "Mark Stone", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 779, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 110 }, { "player_id": 8484803, "player": "Trevor Connelly", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 731, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479353, "player": "Brett Howden", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 840, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 89 }, { "player_id": 8478468, "player": "Jeremy Lauzon", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1119, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 150 }, { "player_id": 8477447, "player": "Shea Theodore", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 966, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 214 }, { "player_id": 8478403, "player": "Jack Eichel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 827, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 138 }, { "player_id": 8478396, "player": "Noah Hanifin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1038, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 133 }, { "player_id": 8483890, "player": "Braeden Bowman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 684, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8481534, "player": "Raphael Lavoie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 782, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8478397, "player": "Rasmus Andersson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1024, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 9 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15000, "PP_seconds": 1200, "SH_seconds": 1440 }, "conditional_branches": [], "return_branches": "Any return depends on current official clearance; prior actual role samples retained, future minutes unestimated.", "PP_units": "Unknown final units; official actual strength exposure retained, no roster-order inference", "line_combinations": "Latest actual official skaters and retained prior previews; October15 final lines not announced.", "OT_note": "Observed workload includes any OT; not a forecast of penalties or OT." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8478403, "name": { "default": "J. Eichel" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:54", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8483553, "name": { "default": "M. Gatcomb" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:14", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8479353, "name": { "default": "B. Howden" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:29", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8484803, "name": { "default": "T. Connelly" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:00", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8475343, "name": { "default": "N. Dowd" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:21", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8481534, "name": { "default": "R. Lavoie" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:11", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8483890, "name": { "default": "B. Bowman" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:20", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8476881, "name": { "default": "T. Hertl" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:27", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8477964, "name": { "default": "I. Barbashev", "cs": "I. Barba\u0161ev", "fi": "I. Barbashov", "sk": "I. Barba\u0161ev" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:10", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8475913, "name": { "default": "M. Stone" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:38", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8476448, "name": { "default": "W. Karlsson" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:22", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8478483, "name": { "default": "M. Marner" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:24", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8475188, "name": { "default": "B. McNabb" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:27", "shifts": 29 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8478397, "name": { "default": "R. Andersson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:24", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8478468, "name": { "default": "J. Lauzon" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:09", "shifts": 28 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8478396, "name": { "default": "N. Hanifin" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:31", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8477447, "name": { "default": "S. Theodore" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:51", "shifts": 32 }, { "event_id": 2026020101, "date": "2026-10-13", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "playerId": 8479639, "name": { "default": "D. Coghlan" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:08", "shifts": 21 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "PENDING_TRANSACTION_REVIEW", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-15T05:38:36.154127+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-15-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.571133744304476, 3.5624095416778343 ], "Primary": [ 2.464202751513553, 3.522272437822632 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.743895, 3.17073 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.743895, 3.17073 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; parent attaches unchanged registered base means before freeze", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Aggregate registered team baseline contains mixed availability; player-weighted exposure unidentified. These are conditional workload sensitivities, not calibrated baseline corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated teammate/opponent-controlled incremental conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Final lineup/rotation unannounced; actual current workloads and explicit alternatives are conditional. Unestimated numerical effect is not zero. Missing history is not zero performance.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020101/boxscore", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-14-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478109/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478450/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8485251/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482141/landing", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8474565/landing" ], "findings": "Olofsson IR, Wotherspoon week-to-week; Connelly/Lavoie and Coghlan actual workloads retained.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8477964, "player": "Ivan Barbashev", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8483890, "player": "Braeden Bowman", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8484803, "player": "Trevor Connelly", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8475343, "player": "Nic Dowd", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478403, "player": "Jack Eichel", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8483553, "player": "Marc Gatcomb", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8476881, "player": "Tomas Hertl", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8479353, "player": "Brett Howden", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8476448, "player": "William Karlsson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8481534, "player": "Raphael Lavoie", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478483, "player": "Mitch Marner", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478109, "player": "Victor Olofsson", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8475913, "player": "Mark Stone", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478397, "player": "Rasmus Andersson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8479639, "player": "Dylan Coghlan", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478396, "player": "Noah Hanifin", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478468, "player": "Jeremy Lauzon", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8475188, "player": "Brayden McNabb", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8477447, "player": "Shea Theodore", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478450, "player": "Parker Wotherspoon", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8479394, "player": "Carter Hart", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478499, "player": "Adin Hill", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Vegas Golden Knights", "abbreviation": "VGK", "player": "Kai Uchacz", "player_id": "5239180", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:44Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/37/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.219608+00:00" }, { "team": "Vegas Golden Knights", "abbreviation": "VGK", "player": "Victor Olofsson", "player_id": "3151096", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-11T22:04Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/37/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.219608+00:00" }, { "team": "Vegas Golden Knights", "abbreviation": "VGK", "player": "Lukas Cormier", "player_id": "4697678", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:35Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/37/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.219608+00:00" }, { "team": "Vegas Golden Knights", "abbreviation": "VGK", "player": "Alex Pietrangelo", "player_id": "4013", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2025-07-01T00:43Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/37/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.219608+00:00" }, { "team": "Vegas Golden Knights", "abbreviation": "VGK", "player": "Parker Wotherspoon", "player_id": "3942638", "injuries": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-12T23:37Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/37/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-15T05:33:04.219608+00:00" } ], "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8485251, "incumbent": "Kai Uchacz", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:44Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476448, "player": "William Karlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 679, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 112 }, { "player_id": 8476881, "player": "Tomas Hertl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 10 }, { "player_id": 8477964, "player": "Ivan Barbashev", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 839, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475343, "player": "Nic Dowd", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 702, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8475188, "player": "Brayden McNabb", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 888, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 219 }, { "player_id": 8478483, "player": "Mitch Marner", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 712, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 103 }, { "player_id": 8479639, "player": "Dylan Coghlan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 968, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483553, "player": "Marc Gatcomb", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 674, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475913, "player": "Mark Stone", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 779, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 110 }, { "player_id": 8484803, "player": "Trevor Connelly", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 731, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479353, "player": "Brett Howden", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 840, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 89 }, { "player_id": 8478468, "player": "Jeremy Lauzon", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1119, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 150 }, { "player_id": 8477447, "player": "Shea Theodore", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 966, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 214 }, { "player_id": 8478403, "player": "Jack Eichel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 827, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 138 }, { "player_id": 8478396, "player": "Noah Hanifin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1038, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 133 }, { "player_id": 8483890, "player": "Braeden Bowman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 684, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8481534, "player": "Raphael Lavoie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 782, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8478397, "player": "Rasmus Andersson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1024, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 9 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8485251, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8485251/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 15, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 68, "goals": 15, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 75, "plusMinus": -8, "points": 30, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Henderson Silver Knights" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "12:11", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.464286, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 5, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Golden Knights" }, "teamName": { "default": "Vegas Golden Knights", "fr": "Golden Knights de Vegas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vegas", "fr": "de Vegas" } }, { "assists": 31, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 68, "goals": 20, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 52, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 51, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Henderson Silver Knights" } }, { "assists": 2, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 12, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Henderson Silver Knights" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" }, { "incumbent_id": 8478109, "incumbent": "Victor Olofsson", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-11T22:04Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476448, "player": "William Karlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 679, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 112 }, { "player_id": 8476881, "player": "Tomas Hertl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 10 }, { "player_id": 8477964, "player": "Ivan Barbashev", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 839, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475343, "player": "Nic Dowd", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 702, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8475188, "player": "Brayden McNabb", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 888, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 219 }, { "player_id": 8478483, "player": "Mitch Marner", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 712, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 103 }, { "player_id": 8479639, "player": "Dylan Coghlan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 968, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483553, "player": "Marc Gatcomb", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 674, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475913, "player": "Mark Stone", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 779, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 110 }, { "player_id": 8484803, "player": "Trevor Connelly", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 731, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479353, "player": "Brett Howden", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 840, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 89 }, { "player_id": 8478468, "player": "Jeremy Lauzon", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1119, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 150 }, { "player_id": 8477447, "player": "Shea Theodore", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 966, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 214 }, { "player_id": 8478403, "player": "Jack Eichel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 827, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 138 }, { "player_id": 8478396, "player": "Noah Hanifin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1038, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 133 }, { "player_id": 8483890, "player": "Braeden Bowman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 684, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8481534, "player": "Raphael Lavoie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 782, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8478397, "player": "Rasmus Andersson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1024, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 9 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8478109, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478109/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 14, "avgToi": "14:30", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.142857, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 56, "goals": 15, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": 17, "points": 29, "powerPlayGoals": 6, "powerPlayPoints": 8, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.137615, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 109, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Golden Knights" }, "teamName": { "default": "Vegas Golden Knights", "fr": "Golden Knights de Vegas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vegas", "fr": "de Vegas" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "14:22", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.5, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 9, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.142857, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 14, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Golden Knights" }, "teamName": { "default": "Vegas Golden Knights", "fr": "Golden Knights de Vegas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vegas", "fr": "de Vegas" } }, { "assists": 14, "avgToi": "13:20", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.375, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 60, "goals": 11, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 25, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 7, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.098214, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 112, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Avalanche" }, "teamName": { "default": "Colorado Avalanche", "fr": "Avalanche du Colorado" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Colorado", "fr": "du Colorado" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "14:18", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 18, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 6, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.057143, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 35, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flames" }, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Flames", "fr": "Flames de Calgary" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Calgary", "fr": "de Calgary" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "13:08", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.6, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.444444, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 9, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Golden Knights" }, "teamName": { "default": "Vegas Golden Knights", "fr": "Golden Knights de Vegas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vegas", "fr": "de Vegas" } } ] } }, { "incumbent_id": 8482141, "incumbent": "Lukas Cormier", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:35Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476448, "player": "William Karlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 679, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 112 }, { "player_id": 8476881, "player": "Tomas Hertl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 10 }, { "player_id": 8477964, "player": "Ivan Barbashev", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 839, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475343, "player": "Nic Dowd", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 702, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8475188, "player": "Brayden McNabb", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 888, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 219 }, { "player_id": 8478483, "player": "Mitch Marner", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 712, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 103 }, { "player_id": 8479639, "player": "Dylan Coghlan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 968, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483553, "player": "Marc Gatcomb", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 674, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475913, "player": "Mark Stone", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 779, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 110 }, { "player_id": 8484803, "player": "Trevor Connelly", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 731, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479353, "player": "Brett Howden", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 840, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 89 }, { "player_id": 8478468, "player": "Jeremy Lauzon", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1119, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 150 }, { "player_id": 8477447, "player": "Shea Theodore", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 966, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 214 }, { "player_id": 8478403, "player": "Jack Eichel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 827, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 138 }, { "player_id": 8478396, "player": "Noah Hanifin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1038, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 133 }, { "player_id": 8483890, "player": "Braeden Bowman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 684, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8481534, "player": "Raphael Lavoie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 782, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8478397, "player": "Rasmus Andersson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1024, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 9 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8482141, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482141/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 9, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 19, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 10, "plusMinus": -9, "points": 9, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Henderson Silver Knights" } }, { "assists": 39, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 49, "goals": 8, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 32, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 47, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Henderson Silver Knights" } }, { "assists": 3, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 5, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Henderson Silver Knights" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" }, { "incumbent_id": 8474565, "incumbent": "Alex Pietrangelo", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2025-07-01T00:43Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476448, "player": "William Karlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 679, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 112 }, { "player_id": 8476881, "player": "Tomas Hertl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 10 }, { "player_id": 8477964, "player": "Ivan Barbashev", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 839, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475343, "player": "Nic Dowd", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 702, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8475188, "player": "Brayden McNabb", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 888, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 219 }, { "player_id": 8478483, "player": "Mitch Marner", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 712, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 103 }, { "player_id": 8479639, "player": "Dylan Coghlan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 968, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483553, "player": "Marc Gatcomb", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 674, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475913, "player": "Mark Stone", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 779, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 110 }, { "player_id": 8484803, "player": "Trevor Connelly", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 731, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479353, "player": "Brett Howden", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 840, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 89 }, { "player_id": 8478468, "player": "Jeremy Lauzon", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1119, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 150 }, { "player_id": 8477447, "player": "Shea Theodore", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 966, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 214 }, { "player_id": 8478403, "player": "Jack Eichel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 827, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 138 }, { "player_id": 8478396, "player": "Noah Hanifin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1038, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 133 }, { "player_id": 8483890, "player": "Braeden Bowman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 684, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8481534, "player": "Raphael Lavoie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 782, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8478397, "player": "Rasmus Andersson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1024, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 9 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8474565, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8474565/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 29, "avgToi": "22:24", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 71, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": 11, "points": 33, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.03252, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 123, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Golden Knights" }, "teamName": { "default": "Vegas Golden Knights", "fr": "Golden Knights de Vegas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vegas", "fr": "de Vegas" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "23:03", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 6, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.153846, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 13, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Golden Knights" }, "teamName": { "default": "Vegas Golden Knights", "fr": "Golden Knights de Vegas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vegas", "fr": "de Vegas" } } ] }, "missing_history_status": "Official professional histories fetched; team and competition splits separated" }, { "incumbent_id": 8478450, "incumbent": "Parker Wotherspoon", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-12T23:37Z" } ], "reference_role": null, "reference_present": false, "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476448, "player": "William Karlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 679, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 112 }, { "player_id": 8476881, "player": "Tomas Hertl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 10 }, { "player_id": 8477964, "player": "Ivan Barbashev", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 839, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475343, "player": "Nic Dowd", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 702, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8475188, "player": "Brayden McNabb", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 888, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 219 }, { "player_id": 8478483, "player": "Mitch Marner", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 712, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 103 }, { "player_id": 8479639, "player": "Dylan Coghlan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 968, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483553, "player": "Marc Gatcomb", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 674, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475913, "player": "Mark Stone", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 779, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 110 }, { "player_id": 8484803, "player": "Trevor Connelly", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 731, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479353, "player": "Brett Howden", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 840, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 89 }, { "player_id": 8478468, "player": "Jeremy Lauzon", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1119, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 150 }, { "player_id": 8477447, "player": "Shea Theodore", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 966, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 214 }, { "player_id": 8478403, "player": "Jack Eichel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 827, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 138 }, { "player_id": 8478396, "player": "Noah Hanifin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1038, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 133 }, { "player_id": 8483890, "player": "Braeden Bowman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 684, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8481534, "player": "Raphael Lavoie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 782, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8478397, "player": "Rasmus Andersson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1024, "PP_seconds": 131, "SH_seconds": 9 } ], "conclusion": "Reference already excludes player; current skaters carry demonstrated EV/PP/SH. Return/dressing choice unconfirmed.", "numerical_effect": null, "overlap": "Do not add overlapping player pools or assists to goals.", "two_prior_and_current_history": { "player_id": 8478450, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478450/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "18:02", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 55, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 10, "plusMinus": -10, "points": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.022727, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 44, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Bruins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Boston Bruins", "fr": "Bruins de Boston" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Boston", "fr": "de Boston" } }, { "assists": 27, "avgToi": "20:10", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 80, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 55, "plusMinus": 17, "points": 30, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.042857, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 70, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Penguins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "fr": "Penguins de Pittsburgh" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Pittsburgh", "fr": "de Pittsburgh" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "22:06", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 12, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Penguins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "fr": "Penguins de Pittsburgh" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Pittsburgh", "fr": "de Pittsburgh" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "18:16", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 5, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Golden Knights" }, "teamName": { "default": "Vegas Golden Knights", "fr": "Golden Knights de Vegas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vegas", "fr": "de Vegas" } } ] } } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8474565, 8475188, 8475343, 8475913, 8476448, 8476881, 8477447, 8477964, 8478109, 8478396, 8478397, 8478403, 8478450, 8478468, 8478483, 8478499, 8479353, 8479394, 8479639, 8481534, 8482141, 8483553, 8483890, 8484803, 8485251 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 20, "skaterFullName": "Brayden McNabb", "goals": 5, "evGoals": 4, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "shots": 97, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 15, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "shootingPct": 0.05154, "evPoints": 18, "playerId": 8475188, "shGoals": 1, "shPoints": 2, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1206.7682, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 82, "points": 27, "skaterFullName": "Nic Dowd", "goals": 14, "evGoals": 12, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "WSH", "shots": 86, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 13, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.16279, "evPoints": 25, "playerId": 8475343, "shGoals": 2, "shPoints": 2, "timeOnIcePerGame": 910.5609, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 66, "points": 67, "skaterFullName": "Mark Stone", "goals": 19, "evGoals": 14, "ppGoals": 5, "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "shots": 131, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 48, "positionCode": "R", "ppPoints": 25, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "shootingPct": 0.14503, "evPoints": 41, "playerId": 8475913, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 1, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1155.2575, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 53, "points": 29, "skaterFullName": "William Karlsson", "goals": 9, "evGoals": 7, "ppGoals": 0, "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "shots": 119, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 20, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 6, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "shootingPct": 0.07563, "evPoints": 21, "playerId": 8476448, "shGoals": 2, "shPoints": 2, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1020.849, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 73, "points": 61, "skaterFullName": "Tomas Hertl", "goals": 32, "evGoals": 18, "ppGoals": 14, "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "shots": 177, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 29, "positionCode": "C", "ppPoints": 23, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.18079, "evPoints": 38, "playerId": 8476881, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1027.0, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 67, "points": 57, "skaterFullName": "Shea Theodore", "goals": 7, "evGoals": 5, "ppGoals": 2, "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "shots": 128, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 50, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 19, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.05468, "evPoints": 38, "playerId": 8477447, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1319.5223, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 70, "points": 51, "skaterFullName": "Ivan Barbashev", "goals": 23, "evGoals": 21, "ppGoals": 2, "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "shots": 111, "otGoals": 1, "assists": 28, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "shootingPct": 0.2072, "evPoints": 48, "playerId": 8477964, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1007.9, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 56, "points": 29, "skaterFullName": "Victor Olofsson", "goals": 15, "evGoals": 9, "ppGoals": 6, "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "shots": 109, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 14, "positionCode": "L", "ppPoints": 8, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "shootingPct": 0.13761, "evPoints": 21, "playerId": 8478109, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 869.8571, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 80, "points": 39, "skaterFullName": "Noah Hanifin", "goals": 10, "evGoals": 8, "ppGoals": 2, "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "shots": 145, "otGoals": 0, "assists": 29, "positionCode": "D", "ppPoints": 10, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "shootingPct": 0.06896, "evPoints": 29, "playerId": 8478396, "shGoals": 0, "shPoints": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1293.15, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "seasonId": 20242025, "gamesPlayed": 81, "points": 31, "skaterFullName": "Rasmus Andersson", 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"ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 9, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.25, "shifts": 49, "shiftsPerGame": 12.25, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Raphael Lavoie", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 2500, "timeOnIcePerGame": 625.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.0204 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4646, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 580.75, "gamesPlayed": 8, "lastName": "Gatcomb", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483553, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 24, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 28, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.5, "shifts": 117, "shiftsPerGame": 14.625, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Marc Gatcomb", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 4698, "timeOnIcePerGame": 587.25, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.15384 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5346, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 668.25, "gamesPlayed": 8, "lastName": "Bowman", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483890, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 768, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 96.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 113, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 14.125, "shifts": 137, "shiftsPerGame": 17.125, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Braeden Bowman", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 6227, "timeOnIcePerGame": 778.375, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.45255 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4986, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 623.25, "gamesPlayed": 8, "lastName": "Connelly", "otTimeOnIce": 80, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 40.0, "playerId": 8484803, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1487, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 185.875, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 13, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.625, "shifts": 130, "shiftsPerGame": 16.25, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Trevor Connelly", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 6486, "timeOnIcePerGame": 810.75, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.8923 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892516", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.571133744304476, 3.5624095416778343 ], "Primary": [ 2.464202751513553, 3.522272437822632 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.743895, 3.17073 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.743895, 3.17073 ] }, "research_exposure_disclosure": { "observed_utc": null, "description": "A web search using literal site.mlb.com in query without a domains filter unexpectedly returned nonofficial search snippets, including an odds-bearing Rays moneyline snippet. No market source intentionally requested, no value used as input or adjustment. Numeric quote is excluded from sporting ledger. All subsequent searches used explicit official domain filters.", "source_url": "https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/mlb-pennant-odds-predictions/", "market_inputs_used": false, "blind_trial": false, "resolution": "Disclose contamination; fixed registered arithmetic and source-based roles unchanged. Parent and independent audit notified before freeze.", "observed_time_status": "Exact browser search timestamp was not independently captured; occurred during this research before the05:42UTC desk record and freeze. The earlier05:33:55 value was approximate and is withdrawn.", "recorded_utc": "2026-10-15T05:44:58.825071+00:00" } } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights", "market": { "id": "401892516", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892516", "requested_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.811283+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:55:47.957729+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": -125.0, "away_line_price": 105.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 105.0, "under_price": -125.0, "home_ml": -305.0, "away_ml": 245.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.9912757973733584, "combined": 6.13354328598231, "spread_buffer": -0.5087242026266416, "total_difference": -0.36645671401768976 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.9912757973733584, "combined": 6.13354328598231, "spread_buffer": -0.5087242026266416, "total_difference": -0.36645671401768976 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.058069686309079, "combined": 5.9864751893361845, "spread_buffer": -0.44193031369092095, "total_difference": -0.5135248106638155 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.058069686309079, "combined": 5.9864751893361845, "spread_buffer": -0.44193031369092095, "total_difference": -0.5135248106638155 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.42683499999999963, "combined": 5.914625, "spread_buffer": -1.0731650000000004, "total_difference": -0.585375 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.42683499999999963, "combined": 5.914625, "spread_buffer": -1.0731650000000004, "total_difference": -0.585375 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.42683499999999963, "combined": 5.914625, "spread_buffer": -1.0731650000000004, "total_difference": -0.585375 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.42683499999999963, "combined": 5.914625, "spread_buffer": -1.0731650000000004, "total_difference": -0.585375 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } } ] }