{ "createdUtc": "2026-10-15T05:54:39.099593+00:00", "reviewers": "Three independent agents plus parent; seven named desks share reviewers.", "events": [ { "eventId": "401908025", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Tampa Bay Rays: Caminero/De Luca said fine after collision. Palacios righty lineup replaces Williamson; De Luca/Mullins CF pending. Mc Clanahan separate pitching absence. Cleveland Guardians: Official FAQ reports no injuries. Bailey projected return to Williams battery versus Hedges Game 2; De Lauter RF/Adell DH role switch.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current; home: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current. Primary uses 4951 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Full 2026 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean; no pitcher, park or lineup coefficient. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. Current batting-slot opportunity and bench branches are retained in the official reference-box ledger; unannounced lineups remain conditional.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Progressive Field; listed 2026-10-15T17:00Z. Official MLB matchup, time and postseason stage agree. Probable pitchers and batting opportunities reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401908025", "sport": "MLB", "away": "Tampa Bay Rays", "home": "Cleveland Guardians", "start_et": "2026-10-15T13:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T17:00Z", "venue": { "id": "5", "fullName": "Progressive Field", "address": { "city": "Cleveland", "state": "Ohio" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "stage": 3, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 1, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Scheduled", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 1:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.300475+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-14&endDate=2026-10-15" ], "context": [ "Official MLB matchup, time and postseason stage agree. Probable pitchers and batting opportunities reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "previous_game": { "id": "401908024", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "31", "fullName": "Tropicana Field", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Petersburg", "state": "Florida" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "Cleveland Guardians", "away_score": 1.0, "home": "30", "home_name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20740.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "previous_game": { "id": "401908024", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "31", "fullName": "Tropicana Field", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Petersburg", "state": "Florida" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "Cleveland Guardians", "away_score": 1.0, "home": "30", "home_name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20740.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/CLE/84,65/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:49.595586+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-15T05:16:23+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 13, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T13:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T14:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 66, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 2 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 11.11111111111111 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 62 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 14, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T14:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T15:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 3 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 11.666666666666666 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 59 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 15, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T15:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 68, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 3 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 12.222222222222221 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 60 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 16, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T17:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 70, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 4 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 12.777777777777779 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 60 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "official_event_id": 849818, "stage_label": "AL Championship Series Game 3" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:49.595586+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-15T05:16:23+00:00; periods: number: 13; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T13:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T14:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 66; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 2; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 11.11111111111111; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 62; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 14; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T14:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T15:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 3; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 11.666666666666666; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 59; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 15; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T15:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 68; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 3; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 12.222222222222221; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 60; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 16; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T17:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 70; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 4; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 12.777777777777779; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 60; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Sunny; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/CLE/84,65/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:49.595586+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-15T05:16:23+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 13, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T13:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T14:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 66, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 2 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 11.11111111111111 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 62 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 14, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T14:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T15:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 3 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 11.666666666666666 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 59 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 15, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T15:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 68, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 3 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 12.222222222222221 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 60 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 16, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T17:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 70, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 4 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 12.777777777777779 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 60 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "id": "alcs-starter-role", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional.", "resolution": "Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "Existing gates apply; no added arbitrary expected-score penalty.", "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "unresolved": true, "scope_rule": "Apply to both directions; do not silently lower frozen severity after viewing prices." }, { "id": "replacement-reference-conversion", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable.", "resolution": "Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero.", "effect_estimate": null, "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "unresolved": true, "scope_rule": "Apply to both directions; do not silently lower frozen severity after viewing prices." }, { "id": "mlb-model-disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Three registered engines disagree on score levels before price capture. Expected totals: Classic 8.408758, Primary 6.820387, Tighten Up ON 8.429012, Tighten Up OFF 8.429012. Signed home margins: Classic -0.013156, Primary -0.245210, Tighten Up ON -0.231481, Tighten Up OFF -0.231481. ON/OFF share arithmetic, not independent votes.", "resolution": "Preserve each frozen score; no averaging into another model. Apply market-specific opposition rule below after capture.", "effect_estimate": null, "unresolved": "CONDITIONAL_ON_DIRECTION_OPPOSITION", "markets": [ "moneyline", "run_line", "total" ], "scope_rule": "Using unchanged unrounded means and tolerance1e-9, count this one MEDIUM risk for a market if at least one registered engine favors each opposite direction. Moneyline: signs of home margins. Run line: signs of home margins plus captured average signed home line. Total: signs of totals minus captured average total. A zero/tie blocks unanimity but alone is not opposite-direction disagreement. No risk is counted for this category when all nonzero directions agree.", "tier_consequence": "Adds exactly one unresolved MEDIUM risk to each opposed market, regardless of model count. Two other unresolved MEDIUM risks plus this disagreement means three and market ineligible/PASS. Any existing HIGH risk independently prevents tier eligibility.", "no_added_score_penalty": true } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "id": "alcs-starter-role", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Jax elbow-discomfort return and starter/relief transition; Williams confirmed on regular rest. Both bullpens October 14 off-day; Bailey catches Williams, Palacios/Williamson normal platoon and De Luca/Mullins CF conditional.", "resolution": "Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "Existing gates apply; no added arbitrary expected-score penalty.", "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "unresolved": true, "scope_rule": "Apply to both directions; do not silently lower frozen severity after viewing prices." }, { "id": "replacement-reference-conversion", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable.", "resolution": "Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero.", "effect_estimate": null, "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "unresolved": true, "scope_rule": "Apply to both directions; do not silently lower frozen severity after viewing prices." }, { "id": "mlb-model-disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Three registered engines disagree on score levels before price capture. Expected totals: Classic 8.408758, Primary 6.820387, Tighten Up ON 8.429012, Tighten Up OFF 8.429012. Signed home margins: Classic -0.013156, Primary -0.245210, Tighten Up ON -0.231481, Tighten Up OFF -0.231481. ON/OFF share arithmetic, not independent votes.", "resolution": "Preserve each frozen score; no averaging into another model. Apply market-specific opposition rule below after capture.", "effect_estimate": null, "unresolved": "CONDITIONAL_ON_DIRECTION_OPPOSITION", "markets": [ "moneyline", "run_line", "total" ], "scope_rule": "Using unchanged unrounded means and tolerance1e-9, count this one MEDIUM risk for a market if at least one registered engine favors each opposite direction. Moneyline: signs of home margins. Run line: signs of home margins plus captured average signed home line. Total: signs of totals minus captured average total. A zero/tie blocks unanimity but alone is not opposite-direction disagreement. No risk is counted for this category when all nonzero directions agree.", "tier_consequence": "Adds exactly one unresolved MEDIUM risk to each opposed market, regardless of model count. Two other unresolved MEDIUM risks plus this disagreement means three and market ineligible/PASS. Any existing HIGH risk independently prevents tier eligibility.", "no_added_score_penalty": true } ] }, { "eventId": "401892506", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "BUF: Dahlin missed last game; Grzelcyk new IR compared with prior actual role. Power/Zellweger/Metsa/Crevier demonstrated defensive pool; Jones acquisition reviewed separately. TOR: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Scotiabank Arena; listed 2026-10-15T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892506", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Buffalo Sabres", "home": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1838", "fullName": "Scotiabank Arena", "address": { "city": "Toronto", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Buffalo Sabres", "previous_game": { "id": "401892490", "date": "2026-10-13T22:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1831", "fullName": "Bell Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Montreal", "state": "QC", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "2", "away_name": "Buffalo Sabres", "away_score": 3.0, "home": "10", "home_name": "Montreal Canadiens", "home_score": 4.0, "day": 20739.9375 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "previous_game": { "id": "401892500", "date": "2026-10-14T01:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "3093", "fullName": "Delta Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Salt Lake City", "state": "UT", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "21", "away_name": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "129764", "home_name": "Utah Mammoth", "home_score": 5.0, "day": 20740.041666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020108, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "401892507", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "NYI: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. OTT: Greig strain/early exit confirmed by coach; conditional replacement branch. Eklund/Zub unavailable; Sanderson DTD conditional PP share.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Canadian Tire Centre; listed 2026-10-15T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892507", "sport": "NHL", "away": "New York Islanders", "home": "Ottawa Senators", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "New York Islanders", "previous_game": { "id": "401892495", "date": "2026-10-13T23:45Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "7226", "fullName": "UBS Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Elmont", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "22", "away_name": "Vancouver Canucks", "away_score": 2.0, "home": "12", "home_name": "New York Islanders", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20739.989583333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Ottawa Senators", "previous_game": { "id": "401892494", "date": "2026-10-13T23:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "19", "away_name": "St. Louis Blues", "away_score": 7.0, "home": "14", "home_name": "Ottawa Senators", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20739.979166666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020109, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "401892509", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "SEA: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. TBL: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Benchmark International Arena; listed 2026-10-15T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892509", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Seattle Kraken", "home": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1396", "fullName": "Benchmark International Arena", "address": { "city": "Tampa", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Seattle Kraken", "previous_game": { "id": "401892492", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1845", "fullName": "Xfinity Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "124292", "away_name": "Seattle Kraken", "away_score": 3.0, "home": "15", "home_name": "Philadelphia Flyers", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20739.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "previous_game": { "id": "401892493", "date": "2026-10-13T23:15Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "20", "away_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "away_score": 1.0, "home": "13", "home_name": "New York Rangers", "home_score": 4.0, "day": 20739.96875 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020111, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "401892510", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "VAN: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. FLA: Barkov/Marchand absent; Bennett/Lundell/Reinhart and Vilmanis/Lafferty redistribution; Gudas DTD conditional. Markstrom separate goalie flag.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 8 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Amerant Bank Arena; listed 2026-10-15T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892510", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Vancouver Canucks", "home": "Florida Panthers", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1840", "fullName": "Amerant Bank Arena", "address": { "city": "Sunrise", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Vancouver Canucks", "previous_game": { "id": "401892495", "date": "2026-10-13T23:45Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "7226", "fullName": "UBS Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Elmont", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "22", "away_name": "Vancouver Canucks", "away_score": 2.0, "home": "12", "home_name": "New York Islanders", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20739.989583333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Florida Panthers", "previous_game": { "id": "401892489", "date": "2026-10-13T22:15Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1828", "fullName": "Nationwide Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Columbus", "state": "OH", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "26", "away_name": "Florida Panthers", "away_score": 7.0, "home": "29", "home_name": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20739.927083333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020112, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "401892511", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "NYR: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. NJD: Evangelista new DTD versus actual top-line reference; conditional exclusion. Brown/Bjugstad unavailable; old Siegenthaler flag compared with later play.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 8 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Prudential Center; listed 2026-10-15T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892511", "sport": "NHL", "away": "New York Rangers", "home": "New Jersey Devils", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1826", "fullName": "Prudential Center", "address": { "city": "Newark", "state": "NJ", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "New York Rangers", "previous_game": { "id": "401892493", "date": "2026-10-13T23:15Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "20", "away_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "away_score": 1.0, "home": "13", "home_name": "New York Rangers", "home_score": 4.0, "day": 20739.96875 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "New Jersey Devils", "previous_game": { "id": "401892488", "date": "2026-10-13T22:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "5404", "fullName": "Little Caesars Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Detroit", "state": "MI", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "11", "away_name": "New Jersey Devils", "away_score": 5.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "Detroit Red Wings", "home_score": 4.0, "day": 20739.916666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020113, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "401862800", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "East Carolina Pirates: Brock Spalding Prior injury absence official notes; current final return unresolved; Spalding was the only returning offensive starter: nine starts in 13 games, 63 targets, 42 catches and 554 yards in 2025. In 2024 he had seven games, one start, 11 targets and five catches. Current notes show the injury absence and no October 10 appearance. His return remains unresolved, so continued unavailability is conditional. Gray, Melvin and Sides returned against Rice; no separate absence is inferred for them. UAB Blazers: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Registered baselines are unchanged. Isolated minus-three scenarios and joint overlap are explicit; Conservative ON/OFF use identical scoring arithmetic. Unestimated defensive pathways retain the relevant risk gate.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Protective Stadium; listed 2026-10-15T23:30Z. Official NCAA complete weekly feed and host preview corroborate matchup, venue and kickoff. Personnel branches retained in football ledger.", "details": { "event_id": "401862800", "sport": "NCAAF", "away": "East Carolina Pirates", "home": "UAB Blazers", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:30:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "venue": { "id": "7221", "fullName": "Protective Stadium", "address": { "city": "Birmingham", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:30 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:30 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000&groups=80", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.204069+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A7%7D", "https://uabsports.com/news/2026/10/14/football-uab-hosts-east-carolina-for-homecoming-thursday-night-on-espn" ], "context": [ "Official NCAA complete weekly feed and host preview corroborate matchup, venue and kickoff. Personnel branches retained in football ledger." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "previous_game": { "id": "401862797", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3699", "fullName": "Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Greenville", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "242", "away_name": "Rice Owls", "away_score": 12.0, "home": "151", "home_name": "East Carolina Pirates", "home_score": 28.0, "day": 20736.708333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 5, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "UAB Blazers", "previous_game": { "id": "401862798", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3805", "fullName": "Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Memphis", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "UAB Blazers", "away_score": 13.0, "home": "235", "home_name": "Memphis Tigers", "home_score": 38.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 5, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BMX/59,85/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:50.130849+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-15T05:05:52+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 19, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T18:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 83, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.77777777777778 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 53 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 20, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 79, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 58 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 74, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 69 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 72, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 73 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 70, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 78 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "stage_label": "FBS regular season" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:50.130849+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-15T05:05:52+00:00; periods: number: 19; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T18:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 83; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.77777777777778; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 53; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 20; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 79; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 58; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 74; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 69; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 72; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 73; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T23:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 70; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 78; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BMX/59,85/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:50.130849+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-15T05:05:52+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 19, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T18:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 83, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.77777777777778 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 53 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 20, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 79, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 58 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 74, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 69 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 72, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 73 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 70, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 78 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Spalding return and replacement workload remain unresolved", "detail": "The established receiver has a documented prior injury absence. Preserve baseline and conditional minus-three scores. Current final availability and the future target allocation are not certified; live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Spalding return and replacement workload remain unresolved", "detail": "The established receiver has a documented prior injury absence. Preserve baseline and conditional minus-three scores. Current final availability and the future target allocation are not certified; live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ] }, { "eventId": "401869950", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Georgia Southern Eagles: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger. Old Dominion Monarchs: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Registered baselines are unchanged. Isolated minus-three scenarios and joint overlap are explicit; Conservative ON/OFF use identical scoring arithmetic. Unestimated defensive pathways retain the relevant risk gate.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "S.B. Ballard Stadium; listed 2026-10-15T23:30Z. Official NCAA complete weekly feed and host preview corroborate matchup, venue and kickoff. Personnel branches retained in football ledger.", "details": { "event_id": "401869950", "sport": "NCAAF", "away": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "home": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:30:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "venue": { "id": "3918", "fullName": "S.B. Ballard Stadium", "address": { "city": "Norfolk", "state": "VA", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:30 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:30 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000&groups=80", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.204069+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A7%7D", "https://odusports.com/news/2026/10/13/game-seven-preview-old-dominion-vs-georgia-southern-thursday-night" ], "context": [ "Official NCAA complete weekly feed and host preview corroborate matchup, venue and kickoff. Personnel branches retained in football ledger." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "previous_game": { "id": "401869949", "date": "2026-10-11T00:10Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3608", "fullName": "Allen E. Paulson Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Statesboro", "state": "GA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "256", "away_name": "James Madison Dukes", "away_score": 27.0, "home": "290", "home_name": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "home_score": 24.0, "day": 20737.006944444445 }, "days_between_start_dates": 5, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "previous_game": { "id": "401869843", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3792", "fullName": "Kidd Brewer Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Boone", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "295", "away_name": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "away_score": 10.0, "home": "2026", "home_name": "App State Mountaineers", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20736.708333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 5, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/AKQ/89,53/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:50.024253+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-14T20:03:15+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 20, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 93 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 93 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 93 }, "windSpeed": "7 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 93 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 24, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-16T00:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 97 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "stage_label": "FBS regular season" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:50.024253+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T20:03:15+00:00; periods: number: 20; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 93; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 93; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 93; windSpeed: 7 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T23:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 93; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 24; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T23:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-16T00:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 97; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/AKQ/89,53/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:50.024253+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-14T20:03:15+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 20, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 93 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 93 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 93 }, "windSpeed": "7 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 93 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 24, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-16T00:00:00-04:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 97 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "E", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation", "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "ODU offensive-line availability needs pregame confirmation", "detail": "Connor Drake missed the prior game with an injury but is listed on the current chart. Protection effects remain unestimated. Henicle has returned; no quarterback deduction applies.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ] }, { "eventId": "401892508", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "PHI: Konecny/Barkey unavailable; new York Out and Ristolainen IR require conditional defensive/PP branches. Current replacements unconfirmed. DET: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 8 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Little Caesars Arena; listed 2026-10-15T23:30Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892508", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Philadelphia Flyers", "home": "Detroit Red Wings", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:30:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "venue": { "id": "5404", "fullName": "Little Caesars Arena", "address": { "city": "Detroit", "state": "MI", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:30 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:30 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Philadelphia Flyers", "previous_game": { "id": "401892492", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1845", "fullName": "Xfinity Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "124292", "away_name": "Seattle Kraken", "away_score": 3.0, "home": "15", "home_name": "Philadelphia Flyers", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20739.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Detroit Red Wings", "previous_game": { "id": "401892488", "date": "2026-10-13T22:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "5404", "fullName": "Little Caesars Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Detroit", "state": "MI", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "11", "away_name": "New Jersey Devils", "away_score": 5.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "Detroit Red Wings", "home_score": 4.0, "day": 20739.916666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020110, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "401908945", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "New York Knicks: Latest October 13 reserve-heavy reference excludes Brunson/Towns/Anunoby/Bridges/Hart; league-hosted news says presumed rest and possible Thursday return. Earlier actual roles retained, not permanent absences. Toronto Raptors: Leonard/Barrett/Barnes/Poeltl/Quickley most recent starting lineup. Bittle DTD; Jemison October 14, Hepburn October 12, Andre Jackson October 5 waived, excluded from opportunities.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2793 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Madison Square Garden; listed 2026-10-15T23:30Z. Official home-team schedule matches Oct 15 vs TOR 7:30 pm ET Madison Square Garden Preseason. No automatic activation from preseason games.", "details": { "event_id": "401908945", "sport": "NBA", "away": "Toronto Raptors", "home": "New York Knicks", "start_et": "2026-10-15T19:30:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-15T23:30Z", "venue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 1, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0.0", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 7:30 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 7:30 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.215511+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612752/schedule" ], "context": [ "Official home-team schedule matches Oct 15 vs TOR 7:30 pm ET Madison Square Garden Preseason. No automatic activation from preseason games." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "previous_game": { "id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1838", "fullName": "Scotiabank Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Toronto", "state": "ON" } }, "away": "18", "away_name": "New York Knicks", "away_score": 98.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Toronto Raptors", "home_score": 148.0, "day": 20739.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "New York Knicks", "previous_game": { "id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1838", "fullName": "Scotiabank Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Toronto", "state": "ON" } }, "away": "18", "away_name": "New York Knicks", "away_score": 98.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Toronto Raptors", "home_score": 148.0, "day": 20739.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "stage_label": "Preseason / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "401860923", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Colorado State Rams: Hauss Hejny Coach-reported QUESTIONABLE/partialpractice Oct12; official notes confirm priorhamstring; Hejny had four TCU games with no pass attempts in 2024, one Oklahoma State start with ten attempts in 2025, and three current starts with 47 completions in 73 attempts for 619 yards, ten touchdowns and one interception. Farrar current totals are 63 of 103 for 649 yards in four games and two starts. His 2025 UConn row is 11 of 18 for 84 yards; official biography games and vendor games differ and remain source-labeled. Partial practice is not full clearance. Apply minus three only if meaningful replacement workload continues.; RJ Vick Coach-reported probablydoubtful Oct12; finalofficialstatus unresolved; Vick leads the current receivers with 24 catches for 367 yards and four touchdowns in five games. His 2024 Virginia Union Division II season produced 48 catches for 1,164 yards; official bios disagree on touchdowns (10 versus 12), so that field remains disputed. Wake Forest verifies four appearances and 14 snaps in 2025. Moore has three current catches for 16 yards. His official Iowa Western seasons are now retained separately: 2024 nine games, 21 catches, 302 yards, three touchdowns; 2025 thirteen games, 30 catches, 629 yards, twelve touchdowns. No college-level conversion or exact future target allocation is invented. Texas State Bobcats: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2918 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Registered baselines are unchanged. Isolated minus-three scenarios and joint overlap are explicit; Conservative ON/OFF use identical scoring arithmetic. Unestimated defensive pathways retain the relevant risk gate.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "UFCU Stadium; listed 2026-10-16T00:00Z. Official NCAA complete weekly feed and host preview corroborate matchup, venue and kickoff. Personnel branches retained in football ledger.", "details": { "event_id": "401860923", "sport": "NCAAF", "away": "Colorado State Rams", "home": "Texas State Bobcats", "start_et": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3644", "fullName": "UFCU Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Marcos", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 8:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000&groups=80", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.204069+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A7%7D", "https://txst.com/news/2026/10/13/football-game-preview-txst-vs-colorado-state.aspx" ], "context": [ "Official NCAA complete weekly feed and host preview corroborate matchup, venue and kickoff. Personnel branches retained in football ledger." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Colorado State Rams", "previous_game": { "id": "401860899", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "away": "204", "away_name": "Oregon State Beavers", "away_score": 56.0, "home": "36", "home_name": "Colorado State Rams", "home_score": 26.0, "day": 20729.916666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 12, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Texas State Bobcats", "previous_game": { "id": "401860900", "date": "2026-10-04T02:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "away": "326", "away_name": "Texas State Bobcats", "away_score": 29.0, "home": "21", "home_name": "San Diego State Aztecs", "home_score": 31.0, "day": 20730.104166666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 12, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/EWX/149,74/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:50.539939+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-15T04:33:08+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 20, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 85, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 51 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "ESE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 82, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 56 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "ESE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 78, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 67 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "ESE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 76, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 71 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "stage_label": "FBS regular season" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:50.539939+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-15T04:33:08+00:00; periods: number: 20; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 85; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 51; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: ESE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 82; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 56; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: ESE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 78; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 67; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: ESE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T23:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 76; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 71; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/EWX/149,74/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:50.539939+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-15T04:33:08+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 20, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 85, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 51 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "ESE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 82, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 56 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "ESE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 78, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 67 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "ESE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 76, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 71 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved", "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Colorado State quarterback and receiver availability remain unresolved", "detail": "Hejny is reported questionable and Vick was described as probably doubtful by his coach. Preserve zero, minus-three and minus-six conditional endpoints. A final official report and exact redistribution are unavailable. Mel Brown was reported probable, without a verified material limitation. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ] }, { "eventId": "401892512", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "WPG: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. CHI: Bedard returned October 13, actual return role retained; Mangiapane remains absent.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "United Center; listed 2026-10-16T00:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892512", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Winnipeg Jets", "home": "Chicago Blackhawks", "start_et": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1847", "fullName": "United Center", "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 8:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Winnipeg Jets", "previous_game": { "id": "401892497", "date": "2026-10-14T00:15Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1397", "fullName": "Canada Life Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Winnipeg", "state": "MB", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "30", "away_name": "Minnesota Wild", "away_score": 2.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Winnipeg Jets", "home_score": 5.0, "day": 20740.010416666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Chicago Blackhawks", "previous_game": { "id": "401892496", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1847", "fullName": "United Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "16", "away_name": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "away_score": 3.0, "home": "4", "home_name": "Chicago Blackhawks", "home_score": 5.0, "day": 20740.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020114, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "401892513", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "SJS: Nurse fresh DTD; conditional defense share. Prior official preview duplicates Chernyshov: actual box identities used, malformed projection not copied. NSH: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Bridgestone Arena; listed 2026-10-16T00:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892513", "sport": "NHL", "away": "San Jose Sharks", "home": "Nashville Predators", "start_et": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1834", "fullName": "Bridgestone Arena", "address": { "city": "Nashville", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 8:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "San Jose Sharks", "previous_game": { "id": "401892503", "date": "2026-10-14T03:15Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1653", "fullName": "SAP Center at San Jose", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "San Jose", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "1", "away_name": "Boston Bruins", "away_score": 6.0, "home": "18", "home_name": "San Jose Sharks", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20740.135416666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Nashville Predators", "previous_game": { "id": "401892499", "date": "2026-10-14T00:45Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1834", "fullName": "Bridgestone Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Nashville", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "37", "away_name": "Vegas Golden Knights", "away_score": 5.0, "home": "27", "home_name": "Nashville Predators", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20740.03125 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020115, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "401892514", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "STL: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. MIN: Sturm and Marcus Foligno IR confirmed by league; Kirkland recalled but did not play latest. Spurgeon new DTD conditional defense/PP branch.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Grand Casino Arena; listed 2026-10-16T00:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892514", "sport": "NHL", "away": "St. Louis Blues", "home": "Minnesota Wild", "start_et": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1835", "fullName": "Grand Casino Arena", "address": { "city": "Saint Paul", "state": "MN", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 8:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "St. Louis Blues", "previous_game": { "id": "401892494", "date": "2026-10-13T23:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "19", "away_name": "St. Louis Blues", "away_score": 7.0, "home": "14", "home_name": "Ottawa Senators", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20739.979166666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Minnesota Wild", "previous_game": { "id": "401892497", "date": "2026-10-14T00:15Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1397", "fullName": "Canada Life Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Winnipeg", "state": "MB", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "30", "away_name": "Minnesota Wild", "away_score": 2.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Winnipeg Jets", "home_score": 5.0, "day": 20740.010416666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020116, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "401908033", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Milwaukee Brewers: October 15 final lineup and Milwaukee starter unannounced. Lastactual Vaughn DH/Lara RF vs Snell reference; Yelich/Frelick alternatives vs Glasnow, not confirmedinjury replacements. Both left- and right-handed starter scenarios now use an actual recent starting nine, verified opposing pitcher handedness and observed postseason plate appearances by slot. A mixed bullpen scenario preserves substitution opportunities without inventing a starter or innings split. Final confirmation remains a high availability risk. Los Angeles Dodgers: Actual Ohtani DH/Freeman 1 B retained; prior lingering limitations notnewabsences. Current 3 B/2 B choice depends on unnamed Milwaukee starter, final order pending. Both left- and right-handed starter scenarios now use an actual recent starting nine, verified opposing pitcher handedness and observed postseason plate appearances by slot. A mixed bullpen scenario preserves substitution opportunities without inventing a starter or innings split. Final confirmation remains a high availability risk.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current; home: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current. Primary uses 4951 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Full 2026 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean; no pitcher, park or lineup coefficient. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. Current batting-slot opportunity and bench branches are retained in the official reference-box ledger; unannounced lineups remain conditional.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Dodger Stadium; listed 2026-10-16T00:00Z. Official MLB matchup, time and postseason stage agree. Probable pitchers and batting opportunities reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401908033", "sport": "MLB", "away": "Milwaukee Brewers", "home": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "start_et": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "19", "fullName": "Dodger Stadium", "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "California" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "stage": 3, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 1, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Scheduled", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.300475+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-14&endDate=2026-10-15" ], "context": [ "Official MLB matchup, time and postseason stage agree. Probable pitchers and batting opportunities reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "previous_game": { "id": "401908032", "date": "2026-10-15T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "19", "fullName": "Dodger Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "California" } }, "away": "8", "away_name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "away_score": 6.0, "home": "19", "home_name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20741.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "previous_game": { "id": "401908032", "date": "2026-10-15T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "19", "fullName": "Dodger Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "California" } }, "away": "8", "away_name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "away_score": 6.0, "home": "19", "home_name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20741.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LOX/155,46/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:49.382487+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-14T19:52:28+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T17:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T18:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 86, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": -2.2222222222222223 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 12 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "NNE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T18:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 89, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 13 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "NNE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 85, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": -0.5555555555555556 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 14 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "NNE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 24, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 83, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": -0.5555555555555556 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 15 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "NNE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "official_event_id": 849810, "stage_label": "NL Championship Series Game 4" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:49.382487+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T19:52:28+00:00; periods: number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T17:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T18:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 86; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: -2.2222222222222223; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 12; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: NNE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T18:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 89; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 0; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 13; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: NNE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 85; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: -0.5555555555555556; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 14; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: NNE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 24; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 83; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: -0.5555555555555556; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 15; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: NNE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LOX/155,46/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:49.382487+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-14T19:52:28+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T17:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T18:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": true, "temperature": 86, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": -2.2222222222222223 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 12 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "NNE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Sunny", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T18:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 89, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 13 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "NNE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 85, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": -0.5555555555555556 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 14 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "NNE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 24, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-07:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 83, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": -0.5555555555555556 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 15 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "NNE", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "id": "nlcs-unannounced-starter", "severity": "HIGH", "facts": "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence.", "resolution": "Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "Existing gates apply; no added arbitrary expected-score penalty.", "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "unresolved": true, "scope_rule": "Apply to both directions; do not silently lower frozen severity after viewing prices." }, { "id": "replacement-reference-conversion", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable.", "resolution": "Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero.", "effect_estimate": null, "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "unresolved": true, "scope_rule": "Apply to both directions; do not silently lower frozen severity after viewing prices." }, { "id": "mlb-model-disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Three registered engines disagree on score levels before price capture. Expected totals: Classic 8.846161, Primary 7.281819, Tighten Up ON 8.799383, Tighten Up OFF 8.799383. Signed home margins: Classic 0.151678, Primary -0.187615, Tighten Up ON -0.040123, Tighten Up OFF -0.040123. ON/OFF share arithmetic, not independent votes.", "resolution": "Preserve each frozen score; no averaging into another model. Apply market-specific opposition rule below after capture.", "effect_estimate": null, "unresolved": "CONDITIONAL_ON_DIRECTION_OPPOSITION", "markets": [ "moneyline", "run_line", "total" ], "scope_rule": "Using unchanged unrounded means and tolerance1e-9, count this one MEDIUM risk for a market if at least one registered engine favors each opposite direction. Moneyline: signs of home margins. Run line: signs of home margins plus captured average signed home line. Total: signs of totals minus captured average total. A zero/tie blocks unanimity but alone is not opposite-direction disagreement. No risk is counted for this category when all nonzero directions agree.", "tier_consequence": "Adds exactly one unresolved MEDIUM risk to each opposed market, regardless of model count. Two other unresolved MEDIUM risks plus this disagreement means three and market ineligible/PASS. Any existing HIGH risk independently prevents tier eligibility.", "no_added_score_penalty": true } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "id": "nlcs-unannounced-starter", "severity": "HIGH", "facts": "Milwaukee Game 4 starter unannounced, Glasnow listed for LAD. Left/right starter and mixed-bullpen role branches retained; prior observed lineups do not confirm October 15 order. Ohtani/Freeman prior limitations remain contingencies, no newly confirmed absence.", "resolution": "Historical staff appearances, current roster and conditional lineup branches retained. Numerical incremental effect unestimated.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "Existing gates apply; no added arbitrary expected-score penalty.", "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "unresolved": true, "scope_rule": "Apply to both directions; do not silently lower frozen severity after viewing prices." }, { "id": "replacement-reference-conversion", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Aggregate base reference exposure and validated player-specific run conversion unavailable.", "resolution": "Base scores preserved, adjusted estimates null; null is not zero.", "effect_estimate": null, "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ], "unresolved": true, "scope_rule": "Apply to both directions; do not silently lower frozen severity after viewing prices." }, { "id": "mlb-model-disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Three registered engines disagree on score levels before price capture. Expected totals: Classic 8.846161, Primary 7.281819, Tighten Up ON 8.799383, Tighten Up OFF 8.799383. Signed home margins: Classic 0.151678, Primary -0.187615, Tighten Up ON -0.040123, Tighten Up OFF -0.040123. ON/OFF share arithmetic, not independent votes.", "resolution": "Preserve each frozen score; no averaging into another model. Apply market-specific opposition rule below after capture.", "effect_estimate": null, "unresolved": "CONDITIONAL_ON_DIRECTION_OPPOSITION", "markets": [ "moneyline", "run_line", "total" ], "scope_rule": "Using unchanged unrounded means and tolerance1e-9, count this one MEDIUM risk for a market if at least one registered engine favors each opposite direction. Moneyline: signs of home margins. Run line: signs of home margins plus captured average signed home line. Total: signs of totals minus captured average total. A zero/tie blocks unanimity but alone is not opposite-direction disagreement. No risk is counted for this category when all nonzero directions agree.", "tier_consequence": "Adds exactly one unresolved MEDIUM risk to each opposed market, regardless of model count. Two other unresolved MEDIUM risks plus this disagreement means three and market ineligible/PASS. Any existing HIGH risk independently prevents tier eligibility.", "no_added_score_penalty": true } ] }, { "eventId": "401872995", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet OUT/PUP official finalOct14; Official Seattle reporting identifies Charbonnet and Price as the top two backs. Charbonnet had 135 carries for 569 yards and 42 receptions in 2024, then 184 carries for 730 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns in 2025. He has no current games while on PUP. Wilson has 73 carries for 251 yards; Holani has 26 for 77 plus 11 receptions for 76. Current team rates already include the absence; the additional human deduction is separately labeled.; Jadarian Price IR official; unavailable; Price established a lead role with 28 carries for 119 yards and seven targets in three games. The official coach update assigned the workload to Wilson and Holani after Price aggravated his chest injury. His 2024 and 2025 Notre Dame rows remain separate from NFL production. Price and Charbonnet share a replacement pool and rushing drives; their deductions are not automatically added. Denver Broncos: Pat Bryant IR October9 official; Bryant had nine catches for 133 yards and one touchdown on 12 targets in four games, compared with Franklin six targets in five games and Mims five in three. Bryant had 49 targets and 31 catches in 15 games in 2025. Humphrey was promoted when Bryant went on IR. Receiving work may move to Franklin, Mims, Humphrey, Waddle or Sutton; exact shares are unverified. Apply the material-receiver minus-three scenario, retaining a zero-deduction supporting-role sensitivity.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 17 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 17 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 557 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 37.5% prior PF/opponent PA matchup +62.5% current (offensive PPD +opponent defensive PPD)/2 times (offensive drives/game +opponent defensive drives/game)/2; home +1.5 unless neutral; no unsupported personnel/weather adjustment. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 17 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 17 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 557 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 37.5% prior PF/opponent PA matchup +62.5% current (offensive PPD +opponent defensive PPD)/2 times (offensive drives/game +opponent defensive drives/game)/2; home +1.5 unless neutral; no unsupported personnel/weather adjustment. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Registered baselines are unchanged. Isolated minus-three scenarios and joint overlap are explicit; Conservative ON/OFF use identical scoring arithmetic. Unestimated defensive pathways retain the relevant risk gate.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Empower Field at Mile High; listed 2026-10-16T00:15Z. Official Denver source states Seattle at Denver Thursday6:15PMMT =8:15PMET. Short-week rest and altitude are context, not invented score coefficients.", "details": { "event_id": "401872995", "sport": "NFL", "away": "Seattle Seahawks", "home": "Denver Broncos", "start_et": "2026-10-15T20:15:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T00:15Z", "venue": { "id": "3937", "fullName": "Empower Field at Mile High", "address": { "city": "Denver", "state": "CO", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 8:15 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 8:15 PM EDT" }, "isTBDFlex": false }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.196031+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/injury-report-cb-riley-moss-listed-as-questionable-for-thursday-night-football-vs-seahawks" ], "context": [ "Official Denver source states Seattle at Denver Thursday6:15PMMT =8:15PMET. Short-week rest and altitude are context, not invented score coefficients." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "previous_game": { "id": "401872992", "date": "2026-10-11T20:25Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3673", "fullName": "Lumen Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Seattle", "state": "WA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "25", "away_name": "San Francisco 49ers", "away_score": 32.0, "home": "26", "home_name": "Seattle Seahawks", "home_score": 29.0, "day": 20737.850694444445 }, "days_between_start_dates": 4, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Denver Broncos", "previous_game": { "id": "401872989", "date": "2026-10-11T20:05Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "7065", "fullName": "SoFi Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Inglewood", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "7", "away_name": "Denver Broncos", "away_score": 23.0, "home": "24", "home_name": "Los Angeles Chargers", "home_score": 17.0, "day": 20737.836805555555 }, "days_between_start_dates": 4, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOU/62,62/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:49.338554+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-14T18:47:28+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T18:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 51, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 1.1111111111111112 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 52 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "N", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 49, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0.5555555555555556 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 54 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "N", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 47, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0.5555555555555556 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 58 }, "windSpeed": "3 mph", "windDirection": "NW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 24, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 44, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 62 }, "windSpeed": "3 mph", "windDirection": "W", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 25, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 43, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 65 }, "windSpeed": "3 mph", "windDirection": "W", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "stage_label": "NFL regular season" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "retrieved_utc: 2026-10-15T05:32:49.338554+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T18:47:28+00:00; periods: number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T18:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 51; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 1.1111111111111112; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 52; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T19:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 49; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 0.5555555555555556; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 54; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T20:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 47; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 0.5555555555555556; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 58; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: NW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 24; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T21:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 44; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 0; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 62; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: W; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 25; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-15T22:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-15T23:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 43; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 0; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 65; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: W; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim.", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOU/62,62/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:49.338554+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-14T18:47:28+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T18:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 51, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 1.1111111111111112 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 52 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "N", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small", "shortForecast": "Partly Cloudy", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T19:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 49, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0.5555555555555556 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 54 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "N", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T20:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 47, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0.5555555555555556 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 58 }, "windSpeed": "3 mph", "windDirection": "NW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small", "shortForecast": "Mostly Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 24, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 44, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 62 }, "windSpeed": "3 mph", "windDirection": "W", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 25, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-06:00", "endTime": "2026-10-15T23:00:00-06:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 43, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 0 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 65 }, "windSpeed": "3 mph", "windDirection": "W", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS near-venue hourly forecast for event window; no numerical adjustment or observed-game-weather claim." }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver secondary and Seattle linebacker replacement effects remain unresolved", "detail": "Surtain and Hufanga are out, Moss is questionable, and Tyrice Knight replaces Drake Thomas. Coverage, pressure and field-position effects could change opponent scoring, but no supported point conversion exists. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "Seattle running-back overlap and Denver receiver materiality", "detail": "Test Seattle deductions of zero, three and six points and Denver deductions of zero and three points. The six-point Seattle endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads; it is not automatic injury headcount. Ordinary stress and high-risk gates still apply.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver secondary and Seattle linebacker replacement effects remain unresolved", "detail": "Surtain and Hufanga are out, Moss is questionable, and Tyrice Knight replaces Drake Thomas. Coverage, pressure and field-position effects could change opponent scoring, but no supported point conversion exists. Live selections remain PASS.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "Seattle running-back overlap and Denver receiver materiality", "detail": "Test Seattle deductions of zero, three and six points and Denver deductions of zero and three points. The six-point Seattle endpoint assumes distinct lost workloads; it is not automatic injury headcount. Ordinary stress and high-risk gates still apply.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ] }, { "eventId": "401908622", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Houston Rockets: Capela starts latest reference for rested Sengun/Adams; Thompson/Smart/Sheppard creation. Durant/Van Vleet return conditional from earlier actual rotations. Oklahoma City Thunder: Latest SGA/Jalen Williams/Caruso/Wallace/Hartenstein first unit. SGA final tune-up undecided. Otega Oweh newly OUT after 15 minutes excluded; Holmgren/Mitchell/Sorber/Topic/Jaylin Williams conditional returns.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2793 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Toyota Center (Houston); listed 2026-10-16T00:30Z. Official home-team schedule matches Oct 15 vs OKC 8:30 pm ET Toyota Center Preseason. No automatic activation from preseason games.", "details": { "event_id": "401908622", "sport": "NBA", "away": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "home": "Houston Rockets", "start_et": "2026-10-15T20:30:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T00:30Z", "venue": { "id": "1394", "fullName": "Toyota Center (Houston)", "address": { "city": "Houston", "state": "TX" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 1, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0.0", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 8:30 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 8:30 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.215511+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612745/schedule" ], "context": [ "Official home-team schedule matches Oct 15 vs OKC 8:30 pm ET Toyota Center Preseason. No automatic activation from preseason games." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "previous_game": { "id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "2559", "fullName": "Paycom Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Oklahoma City", "state": "OK" } }, "away": "11", "away_name": "Indiana Pacers", "away_score": 112.0, "home": "25", "home_name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "home_score": 114.0, "day": 20740.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Houston Rockets", "previous_game": { "id": "401898400", "date": "2026-10-11T10:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": true, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "4018", "fullName": "Venetian Arena", "indoor": true, "address": null }, "away": "6", "away_name": "Dallas Mavericks", "away_score": 132.0, "home": "10", "home_name": "Houston Rockets", "home_score": 115.0, "day": 20737.416666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 4, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "stage_label": "Preseason / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "401892515", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "UTA: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. EDM: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Rogers Place; listed 2026-10-16T01:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892515", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Utah Mammoth", "home": "Edmonton Oilers", "start_et": "2026-10-15T21:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T01:00Z", "venue": { "id": "5282", "fullName": "Rogers Place", "address": { "city": "Edmonton", "state": "AB", "country": "Canada" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 9:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 9:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Utah Mammoth", "previous_game": { "id": "401892500", "date": "2026-10-14T01:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "3093", "fullName": "Delta Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Salt Lake City", "state": "UT", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "21", "away_name": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "129764", "home_name": "Utah Mammoth", "home_score": 5.0, "day": 20740.041666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Edmonton Oilers", "previous_game": { "id": "401892502", "date": "2026-10-14T02:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1841", "fullName": "crypto.com Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "6", "away_name": "Edmonton Oilers", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "8", "home_name": "Los Angeles Kings", "home_score": 1.0, "day": 20740.104166666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020117, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "401892516", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "CGY: Current final lines and PP units unannounced. Latest actual official strength-state reference and current roster/dated injury flags reviewed; older flags not new absences, newly flagged participants receive conditional exclusion branches. No validated incremental conversion. VGK: Olofsson IR, Wotherspoon week-to-week; Connelly/Lavoie and Coghlan actual workloads retained.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 8 current. Primary uses 2853 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "T-Mobile Arena; listed 2026-10-16T02:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately.", "details": { "event_id": "401892516", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Calgary Flames", "home": "Vegas Golden Knights", "start_et": "2026-10-15T22:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-16T02:00Z", "venue": { "id": "5060", "fullName": "T-Mobile Arena", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Thu, October 15th at 10:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/15 - 10:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261015&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-15T05:32:09.282692+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-14" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, clubs and time matched. Goalies and strength-state roles reviewed separately." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Calgary Flames", "previous_game": { "id": "401892501", "date": "2026-10-14T01:45Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1842", "fullName": "Honda Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Anaheim", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "3", "away_name": "Calgary Flames", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "25", "home_name": "Anaheim Ducks", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20740.072916666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Vegas Golden Knights", "previous_game": { "id": "401892499", "date": "2026-10-14T00:45Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1834", "fullName": "Bridgestone Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Nashville", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "37", "away_name": "Vegas Golden Knights", "away_score": 5.0, "home": "27", "home_name": "Nashville Predators", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20740.03125 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar start-date interval, not elapsed rest hours or a verified travel itinerary. No unregistered coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020118, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct external-weather numerical adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Parent schedule desk; independent model/source audit" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] } ] }