Four configurations. Three score engines.

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401856716",
    "matchup": "Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "team": "Texas A&M Aggies",
      "line": 3.5,
      "price": -115.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856716",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.310455+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.676141+00:00",
      "home_line": -3.5,
      "away_line": 3.5,
      "home_line_price": -105.0,
      "away_line_price": -115.0,
      "total": 49.5,
      "under_line": 49.5,
      "over_price": -110.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": -180.0,
      "away_ml": 150.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 0.7699999999999996,
      "production_adjusted": 0.7699999999999996,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -5.23,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.227272727272727,
            25.272727272727273
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 1.4545454545454533,
          "scenario_minimum": -4.545454545454547
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            18.52558930729159,
            27.403705659038902
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -5.3781163517473125,
          "scenario_minimum": -11.378116351747313
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.614166666666666,
            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.7699999999999996,
          "scenario_minimum": -5.23
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.614166666666666,
            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.7699999999999996,
          "scenario_minimum": -5.23
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
          20.614166666666666,
          29.344166666666666
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -5.23,
        "stressed_buffer": -8.23
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            20.614166666666666,
            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -2.2300000000000004,
          "stressed_buffer": -5.23
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            20.614166666666666,
            29.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -5.23,
          "stressed_buffer": -8.23
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            23.614166666666666,
            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.7699999999999996,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.2300000000000004
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            23.614166666666666,
            29.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -2.2300000000000004,
          "stressed_buffer": -5.23
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            26.614166666666666,
            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.7699999999999996,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.7699999999999996
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            26.614166666666666,
            29.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.7699999999999996,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.2300000000000004
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            21.60166666666667,
            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -1.2424999999999962,
          "stressed_buffer": -4.242499999999996
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            21.60166666666667,
            29.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -4.242499999999996,
          "stressed_buffer": -7.242499999999996
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            24.60166666666667,
            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 1.7575000000000038,
          "stressed_buffer": -1.2424999999999962
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            24.60166666666667,
            29.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -1.2424999999999962,
          "stressed_buffer": -4.242499999999996
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            27.60166666666667,
            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.757500000000004,
          "stressed_buffer": 1.7575000000000038
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            27.60166666666667,
            29.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 1.7575000000000038,
          "stressed_buffer": -1.2424999999999962
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          27.601666666666667,
          29.344166666666666
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          27.875,
          27.041666666666664
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          25.9,
          28.1
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -0.2733333333333331,
          1.773333333333333
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "conditional_availability",
          "team": "Texas A&M Aggies",
          "names": [
            "Mario Craver"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned."
        },
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "Texas A&M Aggies",
          "names": [
            "Terry Bussey"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "Missouri Tigers",
          "names": [
            "Ahmad Hardy"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Primary"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 3,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Columbia&state=MO&site=LSX&textField1=38.9541&textField2=-92.3267&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T11:00:00-05:00",
        "window": "Increasing clouds, with a high near 89. Southeast wind around 6 mph.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Texas A&M Aggies",
          "facts": [
            "Unresolved availability: Mario Craver"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401856716",
    "matchup": "Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "over",
      "line": 49.5,
      "price": -110.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856716",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.310455+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.676141+00:00",
      "home_line": -3.5,
      "away_line": 3.5,
      "home_line_price": -105.0,
      "away_line_price": -115.0,
      "total": 49.5,
      "under_line": 49.5,
      "over_price": -110.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": -180.0,
      "away_ml": 150.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 5,
      "base": 6.458333333333329,
      "production_adjusted": 0.4583333333333286,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -2.5416666666666714,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.227272727272727,
            25.272727272727273
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -1.0,
          "scenario_minimum": -4.0
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            18.52558930729159,
            27.403705659038902
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -3.570705033669512,
          "scenario_minimum": -6.570705033669512
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.614166666666666,
            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.4583333333333286,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.5416666666666714
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.614166666666666,
            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.4583333333333286,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.5416666666666714
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
          20.614166666666666,
          26.344166666666666
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -2.5416666666666714,
        "stressed_buffer": -5.541666666666671
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            20.614166666666666,
            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -2.5416666666666714,
          "stressed_buffer": -5.541666666666671
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
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            29.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.4583333333333286,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.5416666666666714
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
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            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.4583333333333286,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.5416666666666714
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            23.614166666666666,
            29.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.4583333333333286,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.4583333333333286
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            26.614166666666666,
            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.4583333333333286,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.4583333333333286
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            26.614166666666666,
            29.344166666666666
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          "directional_buffer": 6.458333333333329,
          "stressed_buffer": 3.4583333333333286
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            21.60166666666667,
            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -1.55416666666666,
          "stressed_buffer": -4.55416666666666
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            21.60166666666667,
            29.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 1.44583333333334,
          "stressed_buffer": -1.55416666666666
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            24.60166666666667,
            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 1.44583333333334,
          "stressed_buffer": -1.55416666666666
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            24.60166666666667,
            29.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.44583333333334,
          "stressed_buffer": 1.44583333333334
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            27.60166666666667,
            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.44583333333334,
          "stressed_buffer": 1.44583333333334
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            27.60166666666667,
            29.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.44583333333334,
          "stressed_buffer": 4.44583333333334
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          27.601666666666667,
          29.344166666666666
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          27.875,
          27.041666666666664
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          25.9,
          28.1
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -0.2733333333333331,
          1.773333333333333
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "conditional_availability",
          "team": "Texas A&M Aggies",
          "names": [
            "Mario Craver"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned."
        },
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "Texas A&M Aggies",
          "names": [
            "Terry Bussey"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "Missouri Tigers",
          "names": [
            "Ahmad Hardy"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic",
            "Primary"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 3,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Columbia&state=MO&site=LSX&textField1=38.9541&textField2=-92.3267&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T11:00:00-05:00",
        "window": "Increasing clouds, with a high near 89. Southeast wind around 6 mph.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Texas A&M Aggies",
          "facts": [
            "Unresolved availability: Mario Craver"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401856716",
    "matchup": "Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "team": "Texas A&M Aggies",
      "line": 3.5,
      "price": -115.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856716",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.310455+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.676141+00:00",
      "home_line": -3.5,
      "away_line": 3.5,
      "home_line_price": -105.0,
      "away_line_price": -115.0,
      "total": 49.5,
      "under_line": 49.5,
      "over_price": -110.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": -180.0,
      "away_ml": 150.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 3,
      "base": 0.7699999999999996,
      "production_adjusted": 0.7699999999999996,
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          "directional_buffer": 1.4545454545454533,
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        "Primary": {
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          ],
          "directional_buffer": -5.3781163517473125,
          "scenario_minimum": -11.378116351747313
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        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.7699999999999996,
          "scenario_minimum": -5.23
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        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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            26.344166666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.7699999999999996,
          "scenario_minimum": -5.23
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      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
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        "directional_buffer": -5.23,
        "stressed_buffer": -8.23
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
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          "directional_buffer": -2.2300000000000004,
          "stressed_buffer": -5.23
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        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
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          "directional_buffer": -5.23,
          "stressed_buffer": -8.23
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
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          "directional_buffer": 0.7699999999999996,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.2300000000000004
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        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            23.614166666666666,
            29.344166666666666
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          "directional_buffer": -2.2300000000000004,
          "stressed_buffer": -5.23
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            26.614166666666666,
            26.344166666666666
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          "directional_buffer": 3.7699999999999996,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.7699999999999996
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            26.614166666666666,
            29.344166666666666
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          "directional_buffer": 0.7699999999999996,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.2300000000000004
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            21.60166666666667,
            26.344166666666666
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          "directional_buffer": -1.2424999999999962,
          "stressed_buffer": -4.242499999999996
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            21.60166666666667,
            29.344166666666666
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          "directional_buffer": -4.242499999999996,
          "stressed_buffer": -7.242499999999996
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            24.60166666666667,
            26.344166666666666
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          "directional_buffer": 1.7575000000000038,
          "stressed_buffer": -1.2424999999999962
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            24.60166666666667,
            29.344166666666666
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          "directional_buffer": -1.2424999999999962,
          "stressed_buffer": -4.242499999999996
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            27.60166666666667,
            26.344166666666666
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          "directional_buffer": 4.757500000000004,
          "stressed_buffer": 1.7575000000000038
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            27.60166666666667,
            29.344166666666666
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          "directional_buffer": 1.7575000000000038,
          "stressed_buffer": -1.2424999999999962
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      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          27.601666666666667,
          29.344166666666666
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        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          27.875,
          27.041666666666664
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        "currentMatchup": [
          25.9,
          28.1
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        "registeredCorrections": [
          -0.2733333333333331,
          1.773333333333333
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      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "conditional_availability",
          "team": "Texas A&M Aggies",
          "names": [
            "Mario Craver"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned."
        },
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "Texas A&M Aggies",
          "names": [
            "Terry Bussey"
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          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "Missouri Tigers",
          "names": [
            "Ahmad Hardy"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Primary"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 3,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Columbia&state=MO&site=LSX&textField1=38.9541&textField2=-92.3267&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T11:00:00-05:00",
        "window": "Increasing clouds, with a high near 89. Southeast wind around 6 mph.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Texas A&M Aggies",
          "facts": [
            "Unresolved availability: Mario Craver"
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      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401856716",
    "matchup": "Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "over",
      "line": 49.5,
      "price": -110.0
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    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856716",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.310455+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.676141+00:00",
      "home_line": -3.5,
      "away_line": 3.5,
      "home_line_price": -105.0,
      "away_line_price": -115.0,
      "total": 49.5,
      "under_line": 49.5,
      "over_price": -110.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": -180.0,
      "away_ml": 150.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
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    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 6.458333333333329,
      "production_adjusted": 0.4583333333333286,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -2.5416666666666714,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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          "directional_buffer": -1.0,
          "scenario_minimum": -4.0
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        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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          "directional_buffer": -3.570705033669512,
          "scenario_minimum": -6.570705033669512
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        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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          "directional_buffer": 0.4583333333333286,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.5416666666666714
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        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
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          "directional_buffer": 0.4583333333333286,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.5416666666666714
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    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
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        "directional_buffer": -2.5416666666666714,
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          "directional_buffer": 0.4583333333333286,
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          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
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          "directional_buffer": 3.4583333333333286,
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        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
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          "directional_buffer": 6.458333333333329,
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
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          "directional_buffer": -1.55416666666666,
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          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
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          "directional_buffer": 1.44583333333334,
          "stressed_buffer": -1.55416666666666
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
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            26.344166666666666
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          "directional_buffer": 1.44583333333334,
          "stressed_buffer": -1.55416666666666
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
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          "directional_buffer": 4.44583333333334,
          "stressed_buffer": 1.44583333333334
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            27.60166666666667,
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          "directional_buffer": 4.44583333333334,
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
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          "directional_buffer": 7.44583333333334,
          "stressed_buffer": 4.44583333333334
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      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
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          29.344166666666666
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        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          27.875,
          27.041666666666664
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        "currentMatchup": [
          25.9,
          28.1
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        "registeredCorrections": [
          -0.2733333333333331,
          1.773333333333333
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      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "conditional_availability",
          "team": "Texas A&M Aggies",
          "names": [
            "Mario Craver"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned."
        },
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "Texas A&M Aggies",
          "names": [
            "Terry Bussey"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "Missouri Tigers",
          "names": [
            "Ahmad Hardy"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic",
            "Primary"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 3,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Columbia&state=MO&site=LSX&textField1=38.9541&textField2=-92.3267&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T11:00:00-05:00",
        "window": "Increasing clouds, with a high near 89. Southeast wind around 6 mph.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Texas A&M Aggies",
          "facts": [
            "Unresolved availability: Mario Craver"
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      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
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}

Classic

Conditional joint 20.0 / 25.5

• Terry Bussey: reported OUT; isolated 23.0 / 28.5; other team production 23.0 / 25.5
• Mario Craver: if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned; isolated 23.0 / 28.5; other team production 23.0 / 25.5
• Joint overlapSensitivity: Bussey third in receiving yards with 7 catches/92 yards; Craver second with 23/235. Distinct receiver opportunities support separate isolated scenarios. Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained.; isolated 23.0 / 28.5; other team production 23.0 / 25.5
• Ahmad Hardy: reported OUT; isolated 26.0 / 25.5; other team production 23.0 / 25.5

Primary

Conditional joint 15.5 / 27.5

• Terry Bussey: reported OUT; isolated 18.5 / 30.5; other team production 18.5 / 27.5
• Mario Craver: if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned; isolated 18.5 / 30.5; other team production 18.5 / 27.5
• Joint overlapSensitivity: Bussey third in receiving yards with 7 catches/92 yards; Craver second with 23/235. Distinct receiver opportunities support separate isolated scenarios. Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained.; isolated 18.5 / 30.5; other team production 18.5 / 27.5
• Ahmad Hardy: reported OUT; isolated 21.5 / 27.5; other team production 18.5 / 27.5

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 20.5 / 26.5

• Terry Bussey: reported OUT; isolated 23.5 / 29.5; other team production 23.5 / 26.5
• Mario Craver: if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned; isolated 23.5 / 29.5; other team production 23.5 / 26.5
• Joint overlapSensitivity: Bussey third in receiving yards with 7 catches/92 yards; Craver second with 23/235. Distinct receiver opportunities support separate isolated scenarios. Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained.; isolated 23.5 / 29.5; other team production 23.5 / 26.5
• Ahmad Hardy: reported OUT; isolated 26.5 / 26.5; other team production 23.5 / 26.5

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 20.5 / 26.5

• Terry Bussey: reported OUT; isolated 23.5 / 29.5; other team production 23.5 / 26.5
• Mario Craver: if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned; isolated 23.5 / 29.5; other team production 23.5 / 26.5
• Joint overlapSensitivity: Bussey third in receiving yards with 7 catches/92 yards; Craver second with 23/235. Distinct receiver opportunities support separate isolated scenarios. Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained.; isolated 23.5 / 29.5; other team production 23.5 / 26.5
• Ahmad Hardy: reported OUT; isolated 26.5 / 26.5; other team production 23.5 / 26.5

• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/4870858/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/4870869/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/4921116/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5141582/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5141684/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5195300/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5195617/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5225880/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5333436/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/4685383/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/4801276/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/4870934/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/4870971/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5079326/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5079345/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5141358/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5158975/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5199850/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5295969/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report
• https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Columbia&state=MO&site=LSX&textField1=38.9541&textField2=-92.3267&e=0
• https://mutigers.com/news/2026/07/24/three-tigers-selected-to-medias-preseason-all-sec-team
• https://mutigers.com/sports/football/roster/season/2026/player/ahmad-hardy
• https://mutigers.com/sports/football/roster/season/2026/player/jamal-roberts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/142/roster?season=2026
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/245/roster?season=2026
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4685383/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4921116/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079326/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079345/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5139057/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141358/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5197065/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5225880/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4685383/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4921116/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079326/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079345/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5139057/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141358/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5197065/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5225880/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4685383/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4921116/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079326/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079345/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5139057/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141358/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5197065/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5225880/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/leaders?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/leaders?lang=en&region=us
• https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview
• https://www.secsports.com/fbreports

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401856823",
    "matchup": "Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "team": "Arizona Wildcats",
      "line": -3.5,
      "price": -112.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856823",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.639053+00:00",
      "home_line": 3.5,
      "away_line": -3.5,
      "home_line_price": -108.0,
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      "total": 60.5,
      "under_line": 60.5,
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      "under_price": -105.0,
      "home_ml": 145.0,
      "away_ml": -175.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
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          "directional_buffer": -3.15909090909091,
          "scenario_minimum": -3.15909090909091
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            21.279557151718798,
            28.85627012609074
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -11.076712974371944,
          "scenario_minimum": -11.076712974371944
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            28.149166666666666,
            22.171666666666667
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          "directional_buffer": 2.477499999999999,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.477499999999999
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            28.149166666666666,
            22.171666666666667
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          "directional_buffer": 2.477499999999999,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.477499999999999
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          28.149166666666666,
          25.504999999999995
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -0.8558333333333294,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.8558333333333294
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            28.149166666666666,
            22.171666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.477499999999999,
          "stressed_buffer": -0.5225000000000009
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        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            31.149166666666666,
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          "directional_buffer": 5.477499999999999,
          "stressed_buffer": 2.477499999999999
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            34.149166666666666,
            22.171666666666667
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          "directional_buffer": 8.4775,
          "stressed_buffer": 5.477499999999999
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
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          "directional_buffer": -0.8558333333333294,
          "stressed_buffer": -3.8558333333333294
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
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          "directional_buffer": 2.1441666666666706,
          "stressed_buffer": -0.8558333333333294
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
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          ],
          "directional_buffer": 5.1441666666666706,
          "stressed_buffer": 2.1441666666666706
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          34.149166666666666,
          25.505
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          31.708333333333336,
          20.333333333333336
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          30.6,
          27.0
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          2.995,
          -1.495
        ]
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true
    },
    "riskdetails": {
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        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "Arizona Wildcats",
          "names": [
            "Giovanni Richardson",
            "Chris Hunter III"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "conditional_role",
          "team": "Arizona Wildcats",
          "names": [
            "Cole Rusk"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches."
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic",
            "Primary"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Morgantown&state=WV&site=PBZ&textField1=39.6356&textField2=-79.9498&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Arizona Wildcats",
          "facts": [
            "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk",
            "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401856823",
    "matchup": "Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "under",
      "line": 60.5,
      "price": -105.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856823",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.639053+00:00",
      "home_line": 3.5,
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      "away_line_price": -112.0,
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      "under_line": 60.5,
      "over_price": -115.0,
      "under_price": -105.0,
      "home_ml": 145.0,
      "away_ml": -175.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 5,
      "base": 4.179166666666667,
      "production_adjusted": 10.179166666666667,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.8458333333333385,
      "all_four_comparison": {
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          "adjusted_score": [
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            24.113636363636363
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          "directional_buffer": 11.931818181818187,
          "scenario_minimum": 5.931818181818187
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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          "directional_buffer": 10.36417272219046,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.36417272219046
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            28.149166666666666,
            22.171666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 10.179166666666667,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.179166666666667
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            28.149166666666666,
            22.171666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 10.179166666666667,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.179166666666667
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          34.149166666666666,
          25.504999999999995
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 0.8458333333333385,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.1541666666666615
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            28.149166666666666,
            22.171666666666667
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          "directional_buffer": 10.179166666666667,
          "stressed_buffer": 7.179166666666667
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            31.149166666666666,
            22.171666666666667
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          "directional_buffer": 7.179166666666667,
          "stressed_buffer": 4.179166666666667
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            34.149166666666666,
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          "directional_buffer": 4.179166666666667,
          "stressed_buffer": 1.1791666666666671
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
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            25.504999999999995
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          "directional_buffer": 6.8458333333333385,
          "stressed_buffer": 3.8458333333333385
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            31.149166666666666,
            25.504999999999995
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          "directional_buffer": 3.8458333333333385,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333385
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            34.149166666666666,
            25.504999999999995
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.8458333333333385,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.1541666666666615
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          34.149166666666666,
          25.505
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          31.708333333333336,
          20.333333333333336
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          30.6,
          27.0
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          2.995,
          -1.495
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "Arizona Wildcats",
          "names": [
            "Giovanni Richardson",
            "Chris Hunter III"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
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          "team": "Arizona Wildcats",
          "names": [
            "Cole Rusk"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches."
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Morgantown&state=WV&site=PBZ&textField1=39.6356&textField2=-79.9498&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Arizona Wildcats",
          "facts": [
            "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk",
            "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401856823",
    "matchup": "Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "team": "Arizona Wildcats",
      "line": -3.5,
      "price": -112.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856823",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.639053+00:00",
      "home_line": 3.5,
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      "home_line_price": -108.0,
      "away_line_price": -112.0,
      "total": 60.5,
      "under_line": 60.5,
      "over_price": -115.0,
      "under_price": -105.0,
      "home_ml": 145.0,
      "away_ml": -175.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 3,
      "base": 8.4775,
      "production_adjusted": 2.477499999999999,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.8558333333333294,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            24.454545454545453,
            24.113636363636363
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          "directional_buffer": -3.15909090909091,
          "scenario_minimum": -3.15909090909091
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        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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            28.85627012609074
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          "directional_buffer": -11.076712974371944,
          "scenario_minimum": -11.076712974371944
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        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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            22.171666666666667
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          "directional_buffer": 2.477499999999999,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.477499999999999
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        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            28.149166666666666,
            22.171666666666667
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          "directional_buffer": 2.477499999999999,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.477499999999999
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    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
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        "directional_buffer": -0.8558333333333294,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.8558333333333294
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          "directional_buffer": 5.477499999999999,
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          "directional_buffer": 8.4775,
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            25.504999999999995
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          "directional_buffer": -0.8558333333333294,
          "stressed_buffer": -3.8558333333333294
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            31.149166666666666,
            25.504999999999995
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.1441666666666706,
          "stressed_buffer": -0.8558333333333294
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            34.149166666666666,
            25.504999999999995
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 5.1441666666666706,
          "stressed_buffer": 2.1441666666666706
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          34.149166666666666,
          25.505
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          31.708333333333336,
          20.333333333333336
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          30.6,
          27.0
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          2.995,
          -1.495
        ]
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "Arizona Wildcats",
          "names": [
            "Giovanni Richardson",
            "Chris Hunter III"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "conditional_role",
          "team": "Arizona Wildcats",
          "names": [
            "Cole Rusk"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches."
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic",
            "Primary"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Morgantown&state=WV&site=PBZ&textField1=39.6356&textField2=-79.9498&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Arizona Wildcats",
          "facts": [
            "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk",
            "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401856823",
    "matchup": "Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "under",
      "line": 60.5,
      "price": -105.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856823",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.639053+00:00",
      "home_line": 3.5,
      "away_line": -3.5,
      "home_line_price": -108.0,
      "away_line_price": -112.0,
      "total": 60.5,
      "under_line": 60.5,
      "over_price": -115.0,
      "under_price": -105.0,
      "home_ml": 145.0,
      "away_ml": -175.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 4.179166666666667,
      "production_adjusted": 10.179166666666667,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.8458333333333385,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            24.454545454545453,
            24.113636363636363
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 11.931818181818187,
          "scenario_minimum": 5.931818181818187
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            21.279557151718798,
            28.85627012609074
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 10.36417272219046,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.36417272219046
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            28.149166666666666,
            22.171666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 10.179166666666667,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.179166666666667
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            28.149166666666666,
            22.171666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 10.179166666666667,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.179166666666667
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          34.149166666666666,
          25.504999999999995
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 0.8458333333333385,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.1541666666666615
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            28.149166666666666,
            22.171666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 10.179166666666667,
          "stressed_buffer": 7.179166666666667
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            31.149166666666666,
            22.171666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.179166666666667,
          "stressed_buffer": 4.179166666666667
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            34.149166666666666,
            22.171666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.179166666666667,
          "stressed_buffer": 1.1791666666666671
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            28.149166666666666,
            25.504999999999995
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 6.8458333333333385,
          "stressed_buffer": 3.8458333333333385
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            31.149166666666666,
            25.504999999999995
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.8458333333333385,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333385
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            34.149166666666666,
            25.504999999999995
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.8458333333333385,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.1541666666666615
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          34.149166666666666,
          25.505
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          31.708333333333336,
          20.333333333333336
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          30.6,
          27.0
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          2.995,
          -1.495
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "Arizona Wildcats",
          "names": [
            "Giovanni Richardson",
            "Chris Hunter III"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "conditional_role",
          "team": "Arizona Wildcats",
          "names": [
            "Cole Rusk"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches."
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Morgantown&state=WV&site=PBZ&textField1=39.6356&textField2=-79.9498&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Arizona Wildcats",
          "facts": [
            "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk",
            "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint 24.5 / 24.0

• Giovanni Richardson: reported OUT; isolated 27.5 / 24.0; other team production 27.5 / 24.0
• Chris Hunter III: reported OUT; isolated 27.5 / 24.0; other team production 27.5 / 24.0
• Joint overlapSensitivity: Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.; isolated 27.5 / 24.0; other team production 27.5 / 24.0

Primary

Conditional joint 21.5 / 29.0

• Giovanni Richardson: reported OUT; isolated 24.5 / 29.0; other team production 24.5 / 29.0
• Chris Hunter III: reported OUT; isolated 24.5 / 29.0; other team production 24.5 / 29.0
• Joint overlapSensitivity: Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.; isolated 24.5 / 29.0; other team production 24.5 / 29.0

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 28.0 / 22.0

• Giovanni Richardson: reported OUT; isolated 31.0 / 22.0; other team production 31.0 / 22.0
• Chris Hunter III: reported OUT; isolated 31.0 / 22.0; other team production 31.0 / 22.0
• Joint overlapSensitivity: Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.; isolated 31.0 / 22.0; other team production 31.0 / 22.0

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 28.0 / 22.0

• Giovanni Richardson: reported OUT; isolated 31.0 / 22.0; other team production 31.0 / 22.0
• Chris Hunter III: reported OUT; isolated 31.0 / 22.0; other team production 31.0 / 22.0
• Joint overlapSensitivity: Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.; isolated 31.0 / 22.0; other team production 31.0 / 22.0

• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4612624/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4709804/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4801717/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4804879/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4816108/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4891198/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4899361/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/5158407/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/5198318/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/5217700/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/4683719/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/4898018/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/4918103/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5079465/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5082584/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5142265/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5150460/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5161022/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5164314/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5384821/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx
• https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Morgantown&state=WV&site=PBZ&textField1=39.6356&textField2=-79.9498&e=0
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/12/roster?season=2026
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/277/roster?season=2026
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4870754/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4891198/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5093837/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5121936/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5198318/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5214651/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5217700/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4870754/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4891198/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5093837/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5121936/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5198318/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5214651/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5217700/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4870754/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4891198/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5093837/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5121936/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5198318/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5214651/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5217700/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/leaders?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/leaders?lang=en&region=us
• https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401856824",
    "matchup": "UCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "ELIGIBLE",
    "reasons": [
      "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "team": "UCF Knights",
      "line": 10.5,
      "price": -108.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856824",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.671053+00:00",
      "home_line": -10.5,
      "away_line": 10.5,
      "home_line_price": -112.0,
      "away_line_price": -108.0,
      "total": 53.5,
      "under_line": 53.5,
      "over_price": -112.0,
      "under_price": -108.0,
      "home_ml": -455.0,
      "away_ml": 350.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 16.747500000000002,
      "production_adjusted": 13.747500000000002,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 9.472500000000004,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            24.2,
            22.88181818181818
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          "directional_buffer": 11.81818181818182,
          "scenario_minimum": 11.81818181818182
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        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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          "directional_buffer": 5.77891086140945,
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        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
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          "directional_buffer": 13.747500000000002,
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        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            26.175833333333333,
            22.92833333333333
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          "directional_buffer": 13.747500000000002,
          "scenario_minimum": 13.747500000000002
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      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": true,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
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        "directional_buffer": 9.472500000000004,
        "stressed_buffer": 6.472500000000004
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      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            26.175833333333333,
            22.92833333333333
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          "directional_buffer": 13.747500000000002,
          "stressed_buffer": 10.747500000000002
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
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            22.92833333333333
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          "directional_buffer": 16.747500000000002,
          "stressed_buffer": 13.747500000000002
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
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          "directional_buffer": 9.472500000000004,
          "stressed_buffer": 6.472500000000004
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            29.175833333333333,
            27.20333333333333
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          "directional_buffer": 12.472500000000004,
          "stressed_buffer": 9.472500000000004
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      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          29.175833333333333,
          27.203333333333333
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        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          28.833333333333336,
          18.875
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        "currentMatchup": [
          26.075,
          27.425
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        "registeredCorrections": [
          1.721666666666667,
          -0.2216666666666669
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      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "UCF Knights",
          "names": [
            "Alonza Barnett III"
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          "severity": "LOW",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Stillwater&state=OK&site=OUN&textField1=36.131&textField2=-97.0717&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T11:00:00-05:00",
        "window": "Sunny, with a high near 90. Light south southeast wind becoming south southwest 8 to 13 mph in the morning.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401856824",
    "matchup": "UCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "under",
      "line": 53.5,
      "price": -108.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856824",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.671053+00:00",
      "home_line": -10.5,
      "away_line": 10.5,
      "home_line_price": -112.0,
      "away_line_price": -108.0,
      "total": 53.5,
      "under_line": 53.5,
      "over_price": -112.0,
      "under_price": -108.0,
      "home_ml": -455.0,
      "away_ml": 350.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 5,
      "base": 1.3958333333333357,
      "production_adjusted": 4.395833333333336,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -2.879166666666663,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            24.2,
            22.88181818181818
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          "directional_buffer": 6.4181818181818215,
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            21.24620941321598,
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          "directional_buffer": 6.286492034977492,
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        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            26.175833333333333,
            22.92833333333333
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          "directional_buffer": 4.395833333333336,
          "scenario_minimum": 1.3958333333333357
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        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            26.175833333333333,
            22.92833333333333
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          "directional_buffer": 4.395833333333336,
          "scenario_minimum": 1.3958333333333357
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      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          29.175833333333333,
          27.20333333333333
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        "directional_buffer": -2.879166666666663,
        "stressed_buffer": -5.879166666666663
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            26.175833333333333,
            22.92833333333333
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          "directional_buffer": 4.395833333333336,
          "stressed_buffer": 1.3958333333333357
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        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
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            29.175833333333333,
            22.92833333333333
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          "directional_buffer": 1.3958333333333357,
          "stressed_buffer": -1.6041666666666643
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            26.175833333333333,
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          "directional_buffer": 0.12083333333333712,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.879166666666663
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            29.175833333333333,
            27.20333333333333
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          "directional_buffer": -2.879166666666663,
          "stressed_buffer": -5.879166666666663
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      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          29.175833333333333,
          27.203333333333333
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          28.833333333333336,
          18.875
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        "currentMatchup": [
          26.075,
          27.425
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        "registeredCorrections": [
          1.721666666666667,
          -0.2216666666666669
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    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "UCF Knights",
          "names": [
            "Alonza Barnett III"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 1,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Stillwater&state=OK&site=OUN&textField1=36.131&textField2=-97.0717&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T11:00:00-05:00",
        "window": "Sunny, with a high near 90. Light south southeast wind becoming south southwest 8 to 13 mph in the morning.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401856824",
    "matchup": "UCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "ELIGIBLE",
    "reasons": [
      "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "team": "UCF Knights",
      "line": 10.5,
      "price": -108.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856824",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.671053+00:00",
      "home_line": -10.5,
      "away_line": 10.5,
      "home_line_price": -112.0,
      "away_line_price": -108.0,
      "total": 53.5,
      "under_line": 53.5,
      "over_price": -112.0,
      "under_price": -108.0,
      "home_ml": -455.0,
      "away_ml": 350.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 3,
      "base": 16.747500000000002,
      "production_adjusted": 13.747500000000002,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 9.472500000000004,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            24.2,
            22.88181818181818
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          "directional_buffer": 11.81818181818182,
          "scenario_minimum": 11.81818181818182
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        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            21.24620941321598,
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          "directional_buffer": 5.77891086140945,
          "scenario_minimum": 5.77891086140945
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        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            26.175833333333333,
            22.92833333333333
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          "directional_buffer": 13.747500000000002,
          "scenario_minimum": 13.747500000000002
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        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            26.175833333333333,
            22.92833333333333
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          "directional_buffer": 13.747500000000002,
          "scenario_minimum": 13.747500000000002
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      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": true,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          26.175833333333333,
          27.20333333333333
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        "directional_buffer": 9.472500000000004,
        "stressed_buffer": 6.472500000000004
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      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
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            26.175833333333333,
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          "directional_buffer": 13.747500000000002,
          "stressed_buffer": 10.747500000000002
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        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
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          "directional_buffer": 16.747500000000002,
          "stressed_buffer": 13.747500000000002
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
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          "directional_buffer": 9.472500000000004,
          "stressed_buffer": 6.472500000000004
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            29.175833333333333,
            27.20333333333333
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          "directional_buffer": 12.472500000000004,
          "stressed_buffer": 9.472500000000004
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      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          29.175833333333333,
          27.203333333333333
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        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          28.833333333333336,
          18.875
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        "currentMatchup": [
          26.075,
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        "registeredCorrections": [
          1.721666666666667,
          -0.2216666666666669
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    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "UCF Knights",
          "names": [
            "Alonza Barnett III"
          ],
          "severity": "LOW",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Stillwater&state=OK&site=OUN&textField1=36.131&textField2=-97.0717&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T11:00:00-05:00",
        "window": "Sunny, with a high near 90. Light south southeast wind becoming south southwest 8 to 13 mph in the morning.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
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    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401856824",
    "matchup": "UCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
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    "reasons": [
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "under",
      "line": 53.5,
      "price": -108.0
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    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856824",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.671053+00:00",
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      "away_line": 10.5,
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      "under_line": 53.5,
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      "under_price": -108.0,
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    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
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        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            26.175833333333333,
            22.92833333333333
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          "directional_buffer": 4.395833333333336,
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        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            26.175833333333333,
            22.92833333333333
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          "directional_buffer": 4.395833333333336,
          "scenario_minimum": 1.3958333333333357
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          29.175833333333333,
          27.20333333333333
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -2.879166666666663,
        "stressed_buffer": -5.879166666666663
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      "scenarios": [
        {
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            26.175833333333333,
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          "directional_buffer": 4.395833333333336,
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        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
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            29.175833333333333,
            22.92833333333333
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          "directional_buffer": 1.3958333333333357,
          "stressed_buffer": -1.6041666666666643
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            26.175833333333333,
            27.20333333333333
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          "directional_buffer": 0.12083333333333712,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.879166666666663
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            29.175833333333333,
            27.20333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -2.879166666666663,
          "stressed_buffer": -5.879166666666663
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          29.175833333333333,
          27.203333333333333
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          28.833333333333336,
          18.875
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          26.075,
          27.425
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          1.721666666666667,
          -0.2216666666666669
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "UCF Knights",
          "names": [
            "Alonza Barnett III"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 1,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Stillwater&state=OK&site=OUN&textField1=36.131&textField2=-97.0717&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T11:00:00-05:00",
        "window": "Sunny, with a high near 90. Light south southeast wind becoming south southwest 8 to 13 mph in the morning.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint 24.0 / 23.0

• Alonza Barnett III: reported OUT; isolated 24.0 / 23.0; other team production 24.0 / 23.0

Primary

Conditional joint 21.0 / 26.0

• Alonza Barnett III: reported OUT; isolated 21.0 / 26.0; other team production 21.0 / 26.0

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 26.0 / 23.0

• Alonza Barnett III: reported OUT; isolated 26.0 / 23.0; other team production 26.0 / 23.0

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 26.0 / 23.0

• Alonza Barnett III: reported OUT; isolated 26.0 / 23.0; other team production 26.0 / 23.0

• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/4875861/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5083747/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5083966/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5148787/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5148822/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5219834/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5224505/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5228041/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5258016/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5291690/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/4911929/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/4922996/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5078144/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5079386/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5085337/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5136049/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5141668/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5142600/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5148656/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5153889/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx
• https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Stillwater&state=OK&site=OUN&textField1=36.131&textField2=-97.0717&e=0
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/197/roster?season=2026
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2116/roster?season=2026
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4911929/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5085337/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5154248/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4911929/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5085337/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5154248/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4911929/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5085337/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5154248/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/leaders?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/leaders?lang=en&region=us
• https://ucfknights.com/news/2026/1/4/2026-football-transfer-portal-central
• https://ucfknights.com/news/2026/10/6/football-set-for-second-straight-top-25-road-tilt-at-18-oklahoma-state
• https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401858256",
    "matchup": "North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "THREE_OR_MORE_MEDIUM_RISKS",
      "ON_UNRESOLVED_MEDIUM_AVAILABILITY"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "home",
      "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
      "line": -3.5,
      "price": -112.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858256",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.680681+00:00",
      "home_line": -3.5,
      "away_line": 3.5,
      "home_line_price": -112.0,
      "away_line_price": -108.0,
      "total": 47.5,
      "under_line": 47.5,
      "over_price": -102.0,
      "under_price": -118.0,
      "home_ml": -185.0,
      "away_ml": 154.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 14.162500000000001,
      "production_adjusted": 11.162500000000001,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 9.470833333333331,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            19.66590909090909,
            27.295454545454547
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.1295454545454575,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.1295454545454575
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            17.657792984941608,
            29.555893035354202
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 8.398100050412594,
          "scenario_minimum": 8.398100050412594
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            16.799999999999997,
            31.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 11.162500000000001,
          "scenario_minimum": 11.162500000000001
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            16.799999999999997,
            31.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 11.162500000000001,
          "scenario_minimum": 11.162500000000001
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": true,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          18.491666666666667,
          31.4625
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 9.470833333333331,
        "stressed_buffer": 6.470833333333331
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            13.799999999999997,
            31.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 14.162500000000001,
          "stressed_buffer": 11.162500000000001
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            13.799999999999997,
            34.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 17.1625,
          "stressed_buffer": 14.162500000000001
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            16.799999999999997,
            31.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 11.162500000000001,
          "stressed_buffer": 8.162500000000001
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            16.799999999999997,
            34.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 14.162500000000001,
          "stressed_buffer": 11.162500000000001
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            15.491666666666667,
            31.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 12.470833333333331,
          "stressed_buffer": 9.470833333333331
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            15.491666666666667,
            34.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 15.470833333333331,
          "stressed_buffer": 12.470833333333331
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            18.491666666666667,
            31.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 9.470833333333331,
          "stressed_buffer": 6.470833333333331
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            18.491666666666667,
            34.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 12.470833333333331,
          "stressed_buffer": 9.470833333333331
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          18.491666666666667,
          34.4625
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          22.083333333333336,
          29.791666666666668
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          18.7,
          28.95
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -3.5916666666666672,
          5.091666666666667
        ]
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "conditional_availability",
          "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels",
          "names": [
            "Jordan Shipp"
          ],
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned."
        },
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
          "names": [
            "Mason Heintschel"
          ],
          "severity": "LOW",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "conditional_role",
          "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
          "names": [
            "Elijah Lagg"
          ],
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches."
        },
        {
          "type": "replacement_experience",
          "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "hardGate": false,
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Geriner first full start with small current sample.",
          "pointAdjustment": null
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 3,
      "one_tier_downgrade": true,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Pittsburgh&state=PA&site=PBZ&textField1=40.4392&textField2=-79.9767&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Light east wind becoming southeast 6 to 11 mph in the morning.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels",
          "facts": [
            "Unresolved availability: Jordan Shipp"
          ]
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
          "facts": [
            "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg",
            "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401858256",
    "matchup": "North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK",
      "ON_UNRESOLVED_MEDIUM_AVAILABILITY"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "over",
      "line": 47.5,
      "price": -102.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858256",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.680681+00:00",
      "home_line": -3.5,
      "away_line": 3.5,
      "home_line_price": -112.0,
      "away_line_price": -108.0,
      "total": 47.5,
      "under_line": 47.5,
      "over_price": -102.0,
      "under_price": -118.0,
      "home_ml": -185.0,
      "away_ml": 154.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 5,
      "base": 3.7624999999999957,
      "production_adjusted": 0.7624999999999957,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -2.2375000000000043,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            19.66590909090909,
            27.295454545454547
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -0.538636363636364,
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        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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          "directional_buffer": -0.2863139797041896,
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        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            16.799999999999997,
            31.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.7624999999999957,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.2375000000000043
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            16.799999999999997,
            31.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.7624999999999957,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.2375000000000043
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
          13.799999999999997,
          31.4625
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -2.2375000000000043,
        "stressed_buffer": -5.237500000000004
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            13.799999999999997,
            31.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -2.2375000000000043,
          "stressed_buffer": -5.237500000000004
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            13.799999999999997,
            34.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.7624999999999957,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.2375000000000043
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            16.799999999999997,
            31.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.7624999999999957,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.2375000000000043
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            16.799999999999997,
            34.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.7624999999999957,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.7624999999999957
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            15.491666666666667,
            31.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -0.5458333333333343,
          "stressed_buffer": -3.5458333333333343
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            15.491666666666667,
            34.4625
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          "directional_buffer": 2.4541666666666657,
          "stressed_buffer": -0.5458333333333343
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            18.491666666666667,
            31.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.4541666666666657,
          "stressed_buffer": -0.5458333333333343
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            18.491666666666667,
            34.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 5.454166666666666,
          "stressed_buffer": 2.4541666666666657
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          18.491666666666667,
          34.4625
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          22.083333333333336,
          29.791666666666668
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          18.7,
          28.95
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -3.5916666666666672,
          5.091666666666667
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "conditional_availability",
          "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels",
          "names": [
            "Jordan Shipp"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned."
        },
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
          "names": [
            "Mason Heintschel"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "conditional_role",
          "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
          "names": [
            "Elijah Lagg"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches."
        },
        {
          "type": "replacement_experience",
          "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "hardGate": false,
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Geriner first full start with small current sample.",
          "pointAdjustment": null
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic",
            "Primary"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 3,
      "unresolved_medium": 2,
      "one_tier_downgrade": true,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Pittsburgh&state=PA&site=PBZ&textField1=40.4392&textField2=-79.9767&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Light east wind becoming southeast 6 to 11 mph in the morning.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels",
          "facts": [
            "Unresolved availability: Jordan Shipp"
          ]
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
          "facts": [
            "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg",
            "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401858256",
    "matchup": "North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "THREE_OR_MORE_MEDIUM_RISKS"
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      "line": -3.5,
      "price": -112.0
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    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858256",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.680681+00:00",
      "home_line": -3.5,
      "away_line": 3.5,
      "home_line_price": -112.0,
      "away_line_price": -108.0,
      "total": 47.5,
      "under_line": 47.5,
      "over_price": -102.0,
      "under_price": -118.0,
      "home_ml": -185.0,
      "away_ml": 154.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 3,
      "base": 14.162500000000001,
      "production_adjusted": 11.162500000000001,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 9.470833333333331,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            19.66590909090909,
            27.295454545454547
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          "directional_buffer": 4.1295454545454575,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.1295454545454575
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        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            17.657792984941608,
            29.555893035354202
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 8.398100050412594,
          "scenario_minimum": 8.398100050412594
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            16.799999999999997,
            31.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 11.162500000000001,
          "scenario_minimum": 11.162500000000001
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            16.799999999999997,
            31.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 11.162500000000001,
          "scenario_minimum": 11.162500000000001
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": true,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          18.491666666666667,
          31.4625
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        "directional_buffer": 9.470833333333331,
        "stressed_buffer": 6.470833333333331
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            13.799999999999997,
            31.4625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 14.162500000000001,
          "stressed_buffer": 11.162500000000001
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            13.799999999999997,
            34.4625
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          "directional_buffer": 17.1625,
          "stressed_buffer": 14.162500000000001
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            16.799999999999997,
            31.4625
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          "directional_buffer": 11.162500000000001,
          "stressed_buffer": 8.162500000000001
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            16.799999999999997,
            34.4625
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          "directional_buffer": 14.162500000000001,
          "stressed_buffer": 11.162500000000001
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            15.491666666666667,
            31.4625
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          "directional_buffer": 12.470833333333331,
          "stressed_buffer": 9.470833333333331
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            15.491666666666667,
            34.4625
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          "directional_buffer": 15.470833333333331,
          "stressed_buffer": 12.470833333333331
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            18.491666666666667,
            31.4625
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          "directional_buffer": 9.470833333333331,
          "stressed_buffer": 6.470833333333331
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            18.491666666666667,
            34.4625
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          "directional_buffer": 12.470833333333331,
          "stressed_buffer": 9.470833333333331
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          18.491666666666667,
          34.4625
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          22.083333333333336,
          29.791666666666668
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          18.7,
          28.95
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -3.5916666666666672,
          5.091666666666667
        ]
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "conditional_availability",
          "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels",
          "names": [
            "Jordan Shipp"
          ],
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned."
        },
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
          "names": [
            "Mason Heintschel"
          ],
          "severity": "LOW",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "conditional_role",
          "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
          "names": [
            "Elijah Lagg"
          ],
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches."
        },
        {
          "type": "replacement_experience",
          "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "hardGate": false,
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Geriner first full start with small current sample.",
          "pointAdjustment": null
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 3,
      "one_tier_downgrade": true,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Pittsburgh&state=PA&site=PBZ&textField1=40.4392&textField2=-79.9767&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Light east wind becoming southeast 6 to 11 mph in the morning.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels",
          "facts": [
            "Unresolved availability: Jordan Shipp"
          ]
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
          "facts": [
            "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg",
            "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401858256",
    "matchup": "North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "over",
      "line": 47.5,
      "price": -102.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858256",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.680681+00:00",
      "home_line": -3.5,
      "away_line": 3.5,
      "home_line_price": -112.0,
      "away_line_price": -108.0,
      "total": 47.5,
      "under_line": 47.5,
      "over_price": -102.0,
      "under_price": -118.0,
      "home_ml": -185.0,
      "away_ml": 154.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 3.7624999999999957,
      "production_adjusted": 0.7624999999999957,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -2.2375000000000043,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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          "directional_buffer": -0.538636363636364,
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        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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          "directional_buffer": -0.2863139797041896,
          "scenario_minimum": -3.2863139797041896
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        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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            31.4625
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          "directional_buffer": 0.7624999999999957,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.2375000000000043
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        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            16.799999999999997,
            31.4625
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          "directional_buffer": 0.7624999999999957,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.2375000000000043
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      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
          13.799999999999997,
          31.4625
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        "directional_buffer": -2.2375000000000043,
        "stressed_buffer": -5.237500000000004
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            13.799999999999997,
            31.4625
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          "directional_buffer": -2.2375000000000043,
          "stressed_buffer": -5.237500000000004
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            13.799999999999997,
            34.4625
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          "directional_buffer": 0.7624999999999957,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.2375000000000043
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
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          "directional_buffer": 0.7624999999999957,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.2375000000000043
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        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            16.799999999999997,
            34.4625
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          "directional_buffer": 3.7624999999999957,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.7624999999999957
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            15.491666666666667,
            31.4625
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          "directional_buffer": -0.5458333333333343,
          "stressed_buffer": -3.5458333333333343
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            15.491666666666667,
            34.4625
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          "directional_buffer": 2.4541666666666657,
          "stressed_buffer": -0.5458333333333343
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            18.491666666666667,
            31.4625
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          "directional_buffer": 2.4541666666666657,
          "stressed_buffer": -0.5458333333333343
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            18.491666666666667,
            34.4625
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          "directional_buffer": 5.454166666666666,
          "stressed_buffer": 2.4541666666666657
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      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          18.491666666666667,
          34.4625
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        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          22.083333333333336,
          29.791666666666668
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        "currentMatchup": [
          18.7,
          28.95
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        "registeredCorrections": [
          -3.5916666666666672,
          5.091666666666667
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    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "conditional_availability",
          "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels",
          "names": [
            "Jordan Shipp"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned."
        },
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
          "names": [
            "Mason Heintschel"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "conditional_role",
          "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
          "names": [
            "Elijah Lagg"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches."
        },
        {
          "type": "replacement_experience",
          "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "hardGate": false,
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Geriner first full start with small current sample.",
          "pointAdjustment": null
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic",
            "Primary"
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      ],
      "unresolved_high": 3,
      "unresolved_medium": 2,
      "one_tier_downgrade": true,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Pittsburgh&state=PA&site=PBZ&textField1=40.4392&textField2=-79.9767&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Light east wind becoming southeast 6 to 11 mph in the morning.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels",
          "facts": [
            "Unresolved availability: Jordan Shipp"
          ]
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers",
          "facts": [
            "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg",
            "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint 16.5 / 27.5

• Jordan Shipp: if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned; isolated 16.5 / 30.5; other team production 16.5 / 27.5
• Mason Heintschel: reported OUT; isolated 19.5 / 27.5; other team production 19.5 / 27.5

Primary

Conditional joint 14.5 / 29.5

• Jordan Shipp: if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned; isolated 14.5 / 32.5; other team production 14.5 / 29.5
• Mason Heintschel: reported OUT; isolated 17.5 / 29.5; other team production 17.5 / 29.5

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 14.0 / 31.5

• Jordan Shipp: if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned; isolated 14.0 / 34.5; other team production 14.0 / 31.5
• Mason Heintschel: reported OUT; isolated 17.0 / 31.5; other team production 17.0 / 31.5

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 14.0 / 31.5

• Jordan Shipp: if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned; isolated 14.0 / 34.5; other team production 14.0 / 31.5
• Mason Heintschel: reported OUT; isolated 17.0 / 31.5; other team production 17.0 / 31.5

• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/4592532/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/4870709/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/4871039/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/5008017/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/5077266/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/5079687/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/5145396/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/5159039/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/5161835/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/5228607/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/4683234/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/4714300/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5083135/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5089539/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5102556/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5141677/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5158978/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5208095/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5210164/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5296040/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Pittsburgh&state=PA&site=PBZ&textField1=40.4392&textField2=-79.9767&e=0
• https://pittsburghpanthers.com/news/2026/10/5/football-narduzzi-notebook-pitt-looks-ahead-to-north-carolina
• https://pittsburghpanthers.com/sports/football/stats/2026
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/153/roster?season=2026
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/221/roster?season=2026
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4714300/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4871039/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5077266/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079687/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5159039/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5207640/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5208095/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4714300/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4871039/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5077266/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079687/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5159039/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5207640/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5208095/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4714300/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4871039/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5077266/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079687/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5159039/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5207640/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5208095/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/leaders?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/leaders?lang=en&region=us
• https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx
• https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401858260",
    "matchup": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "FAVORITE_FAILS_OPPONENT_OFFENSE_CASE",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "team": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons",
      "line": -3.5,
      "price": 100.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858260",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.643559+00:00",
      "home_line": 3.5,
      "away_line": -3.5,
      "home_line_price": -120.0,
      "away_line_price": 100.0,
      "total": 57.5,
      "under_line": 57.5,
      "over_price": -110.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": 140.0,
      "away_ml": -166.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": -2.1199999999999974,
      "production_adjusted": 0.8800000000000026,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -4.153333333333329,
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          "adjusted_score": [
            28.568181818181817,
            25.43181818181818
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -0.3636363636363633,
          "scenario_minimum": -3.3636363636363633
        },
        "Primary": {
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            30.0432350975169
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -9.665323846997303,
          "scenario_minimum": -12.665323846997303
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            25.726666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.8800000000000026,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.1199999999999974
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            25.726666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.8800000000000026,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.1199999999999974
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          30.10666666666667,
          30.759999999999998
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -4.153333333333329,
        "stressed_buffer": -7.153333333333329
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            22.726666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.8800000000000026,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.8800000000000026
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            25.726666666666667
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          "directional_buffer": 0.8800000000000026,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.1199999999999974
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            28.726666666666667
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          "directional_buffer": -2.1199999999999974,
          "stressed_buffer": -5.119999999999997
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            24.759999999999998
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          "directional_buffer": 1.8466666666666711,
          "stressed_buffer": -1.1533333333333289
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            27.759999999999998
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -1.1533333333333289,
          "stressed_buffer": -4.153333333333329
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            30.759999999999998
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -4.153333333333329,
          "stressed_buffer": -7.153333333333329
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          30.10666666666667,
          30.759999999999998
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": false,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          27.833333333333332,
          25.833333333333336
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          31.1,
          29.9
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          0.6400000000000002,
          0.8599999999999998
        ]
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": false
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "conditional_availability",
          "team": "NC State Wolfpack",
          "names": [
            "Joshisa Trader"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned."
        },
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "NC State Wolfpack",
          "names": [
            "Jayden Scott"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "playing_conditions",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
          "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0"
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic",
            "Primary"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 2,
      "one_tier_downgrade": true,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Rain likely, mainly between 1pm and 2pm, then showers after 2pm.  High near 69. East wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 28,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "NC State Wolfpack",
          "facts": [
            "Unresolved availability: Joshisa Trader"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401858260",
    "matchup": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "under",
      "line": 57.5,
      "price": -110.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858260",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.643559+00:00",
      "home_line": 3.5,
      "away_line": -3.5,
      "home_line_price": -120.0,
      "away_line_price": 100.0,
      "total": 57.5,
      "under_line": 57.5,
      "over_price": -110.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": 140.0,
      "away_ml": -166.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 5,
      "base": -1.3333333333333357,
      "production_adjusted": 1.6666666666666643,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -3.366666666666667,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            28.568181818181817,
            25.43181818181818
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.5,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.5
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.877911250519595,
            30.0432350975169
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.578853651963506,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.5788536519635059
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            25.726666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 1.6666666666666643,
          "scenario_minimum": -1.3333333333333357
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            25.726666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 1.6666666666666643,
          "scenario_minimum": -1.3333333333333357
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          30.10666666666667,
          30.759999999999998
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -3.366666666666667,
        "stressed_buffer": -6.366666666666667
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            22.726666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.666666666666664,
          "stressed_buffer": 1.6666666666666643
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            25.726666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 1.6666666666666643,
          "stressed_buffer": -1.3333333333333357
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            28.726666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -1.3333333333333357,
          "stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            24.759999999999998
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.633333333333333,
          "stressed_buffer": -0.36666666666666714
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            27.759999999999998
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -0.36666666666666714,
          "stressed_buffer": -3.366666666666667
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            30.759999999999998
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -3.366666666666667,
          "stressed_buffer": -6.366666666666667
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          30.10666666666667,
          30.759999999999998
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": false,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          27.833333333333332,
          25.833333333333336
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          31.1,
          29.9
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          0.6400000000000002,
          0.8599999999999998
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "conditional_availability",
          "team": "NC State Wolfpack",
          "names": [
            "Joshisa Trader"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned."
        },
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "NC State Wolfpack",
          "names": [
            "Jayden Scott"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "playing_conditions",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
          "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0"
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Rain likely, mainly between 1pm and 2pm, then showers after 2pm.  High near 69. East wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 28,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "NC State Wolfpack",
          "facts": [
            "Unresolved availability: Joshisa Trader"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401858260",
    "matchup": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "FAVORITE_FAILS_OPPONENT_OFFENSE_CASE",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "team": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons",
      "line": -3.5,
      "price": 100.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858260",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.643559+00:00",
      "home_line": 3.5,
      "away_line": -3.5,
      "home_line_price": -120.0,
      "away_line_price": 100.0,
      "total": 57.5,
      "under_line": 57.5,
      "over_price": -110.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": 140.0,
      "away_ml": -166.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 3,
      "base": -2.1199999999999974,
      "production_adjusted": 0.8800000000000026,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -4.153333333333329,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            28.568181818181817,
            25.43181818181818
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          "directional_buffer": -0.3636363636363633,
          "scenario_minimum": -3.3636363636363633
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        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.877911250519595,
            30.0432350975169
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          "directional_buffer": -9.665323846997303,
          "scenario_minimum": -12.665323846997303
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            25.726666666666667
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          "directional_buffer": 0.8800000000000026,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.1199999999999974
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            25.726666666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.8800000000000026,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.1199999999999974
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          30.10666666666667,
          30.759999999999998
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -4.153333333333329,
        "stressed_buffer": -7.153333333333329
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      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            22.726666666666667
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          "directional_buffer": 3.8800000000000026,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.8800000000000026
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            25.726666666666667
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          "directional_buffer": 0.8800000000000026,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.1199999999999974
        },
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            28.726666666666667
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          "directional_buffer": -2.1199999999999974,
          "stressed_buffer": -5.119999999999997
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            24.759999999999998
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 1.8466666666666711,
          "stressed_buffer": -1.1533333333333289
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            27.759999999999998
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -1.1533333333333289,
          "stressed_buffer": -4.153333333333329
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            30.10666666666667,
            30.759999999999998
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -4.153333333333329,
          "stressed_buffer": -7.153333333333329
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          30.10666666666667,
          30.759999999999998
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": false,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          27.833333333333332,
          25.833333333333336
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          31.1,
          29.9
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          0.6400000000000002,
          0.8599999999999998
        ]
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": false
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "conditional_availability",
          "team": "NC State Wolfpack",
          "names": [
            "Joshisa Trader"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned."
        },
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "NC State Wolfpack",
          "names": [
            "Jayden Scott"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "playing_conditions",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
          "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0"
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic",
            "Primary"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 2,
      "one_tier_downgrade": true,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Rain likely, mainly between 1pm and 2pm, then showers after 2pm.  High near 69. East wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 28,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "NC State Wolfpack",
          "facts": [
            "Unresolved availability: Joshisa Trader"
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        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401858260",
    "matchup": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
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      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "under",
      "line": 57.5,
      "price": -110.0
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    "quote": {
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      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858260",
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      "home_line_price": -120.0,
      "away_line_price": 100.0,
      "total": 57.5,
      "under_line": 57.5,
      "over_price": -110.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": 140.0,
      "away_ml": -166.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
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    "buffer": {
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      "base": -1.3333333333333357,
      "production_adjusted": 1.6666666666666643,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -3.366666666666667,
      "all_four_comparison": {
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            25.43181818181818
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          "directional_buffer": 3.5,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.5
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        "Primary": {
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            30.0432350975169
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          "directional_buffer": 3.578853651963506,
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        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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          "directional_buffer": 1.6666666666666643,
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        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
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            25.726666666666667
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          "directional_buffer": 1.6666666666666643,
          "scenario_minimum": -1.3333333333333357
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    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
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          30.759999999999998
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        "directional_buffer": -3.366666666666667,
        "stressed_buffer": -6.366666666666667
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      "scenarios": [
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          "score": [
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          "stressed_buffer": 1.6666666666666643
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          "stressed_buffer": -1.3333333333333357
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          "directional_buffer": -1.3333333333333357,
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        {
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      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
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          30.759999999999998
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        "favoriteSurvives": false,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
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          25.833333333333336
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        "currentMatchup": [
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          29.9
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        "registeredCorrections": [
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          0.8599999999999998
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      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
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          "type": "conditional_availability",
          "team": "NC State Wolfpack",
          "names": [
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          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM",
          "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true,
          "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned."
        },
        {
          "type": "known_absence_scenario",
          "team": "NC State Wolfpack",
          "names": [
            "Jayden Scott"
          ],
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": false,
          "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately."
        },
        {
          "type": "playing_conditions",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
          "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0"
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Rain likely, mainly between 1pm and 2pm, then showers after 2pm.  High near 69. East wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 28,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
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      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "NC State Wolfpack",
          "facts": [
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      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
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}

Classic

Conditional joint 28.5 / 22.5

• Jayden Scott: reported OUT; isolated 28.5 / 25.5; other team production 28.5 / 25.5
• Joshisa Trader: if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned; isolated 28.5 / 25.5; other team production 28.5 / 25.5

Primary

Conditional joint 24.0 / 27.0

• Jayden Scott: reported OUT; isolated 24.0 / 30.0; other team production 24.0 / 30.0
• Joshisa Trader: if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned; isolated 24.0 / 30.0; other team production 24.0 / 30.0

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 30.0 / 22.5

• Jayden Scott: reported OUT; isolated 30.0 / 25.5; other team production 30.0 / 25.5
• Joshisa Trader: if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned; isolated 30.0 / 25.5; other team production 30.0 / 25.5

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 30.0 / 22.5

• Jayden Scott: reported OUT; isolated 30.0 / 25.5; other team production 30.0 / 25.5
• Joshisa Trader: if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned; isolated 30.0 / 25.5; other team production 30.0 / 25.5

• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5079301/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5079468/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5079524/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5079745/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5126513/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5148611/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5160003/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5172608/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5176079/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5215337/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/4920227/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5086448/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5121666/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5141634/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5153074/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5155870/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5186586/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5216505/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5239156/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5382529/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0
• https://gopack.com/news/2026/9/12/football-from-the-field-record-setting-rout
• https://gopack.com/sports/football/roster
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/152/roster?season=2026
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/154/roster?season=2026
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079468/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079524/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079745/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5126513/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5176079/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5215337/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079468/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079524/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079745/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5126513/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5176079/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5215337/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079468/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079524/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079745/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5126513/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5176079/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5215337/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/leaders?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/leaders?lang=en&region=us
• https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx
• https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401858481",
    "matchup": "Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "team": "Indiana Hoosiers",
      "line": -8.5,
      "price": -108.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858481",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.312995+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.619872+00:00",
      "home_line": 8.5,
      "away_line": -8.5,
      "home_line_price": -112.0,
      "away_line_price": -108.0,
      "total": 48.5,
      "under_line": 48.5,
      "over_price": -105.0,
      "under_price": -115.0,
      "home_ml": 270.0,
      "away_ml": -340.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 2.972115384615382,
      "production_adjusted": 2.972115384615382,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.6038461538461597,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            30.229020979020977,
            24.048951048951047
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -2.31993006993007,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.31993006993007
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            29.495483298244295,
            24.981719707319876
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -3.9862364090755804,
          "scenario_minimum": -3.9862364090755804
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            33.71346153846154,
            22.241346153846155
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.972115384615382,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.972115384615382
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            33.71346153846154,
            22.241346153846155
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.972115384615382,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.972115384615382
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          33.71346153846154,
          25.817307692307697
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -0.6038461538461597,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.6038461538461597
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            33.71346153846154,
            22.241346153846155
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.972115384615382,
          "stressed_buffer": -0.027884615384618172
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            33.71346153846154,
            25.817307692307697
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -0.6038461538461597,
          "stressed_buffer": -3.6038461538461597
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          33.71346153846154,
          25.817307692307697
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          32.46153846153846,
          20.048076923076923
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          29.200000000000003,
          27.200000000000003
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          2.882692307692307,
          -1.3826923076923072
        ]
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "playing_conditions",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
          "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lincoln&state=NE&site=OAX&textField1=40.8164&textField2=-96.6882&e=0"
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic",
            "Primary"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 2,
      "one_tier_downgrade": true,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lincoln&state=NE&site=OAX&textField1=40.8164&textField2=-96.6882&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T11:00:00-05:00",
        "window": "Sunny, with a high near 91. Breezy, with a south wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 37,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401858481",
    "matchup": "Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "ELIGIBLE",
    "reasons": [
      "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "over",
      "line": 48.5,
      "price": -105.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858481",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.312995+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.619872+00:00",
      "home_line": 8.5,
      "away_line": -8.5,
      "home_line_price": -112.0,
      "away_line_price": -108.0,
      "total": 48.5,
      "under_line": 48.5,
      "over_price": -105.0,
      "under_price": -115.0,
      "home_ml": 270.0,
      "away_ml": -340.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 5,
      "base": 7.454807692307696,
      "production_adjusted": 7.454807692307696,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 7.454807692307696,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            30.229020979020977,
            24.048951048951047
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 5.777972027972027,
          "scenario_minimum": 5.777972027972027
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            29.495483298244295,
            24.981719707319876
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 5.977203005564171,
          "scenario_minimum": 5.977203005564171
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            33.71346153846154,
            22.241346153846155
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.454807692307696,
          "scenario_minimum": 7.454807692307696
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            33.71346153846154,
            22.241346153846155
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.454807692307696,
          "scenario_minimum": 7.454807692307696
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": true,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
          33.71346153846154,
          22.241346153846155
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 7.454807692307696,
        "stressed_buffer": 4.454807692307696
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            33.71346153846154,
            22.241346153846155
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.454807692307696,
          "stressed_buffer": 4.454807692307696
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            33.71346153846154,
            25.817307692307697
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 11.030769230769238,
          "stressed_buffer": 8.030769230769238
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          33.71346153846154,
          25.817307692307697
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          32.46153846153846,
          20.048076923076923
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          29.200000000000003,
          27.200000000000003
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          2.882692307692307,
          -1.3826923076923072
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "playing_conditions",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
          "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lincoln&state=NE&site=OAX&textField1=40.8164&textField2=-96.6882&e=0"
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lincoln&state=NE&site=OAX&textField1=40.8164&textField2=-96.6882&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T11:00:00-05:00",
        "window": "Sunny, with a high near 91. Breezy, with a south wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 37,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401858481",
    "matchup": "Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "team": "Indiana Hoosiers",
      "line": -8.5,
      "price": -108.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858481",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.312995+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.619872+00:00",
      "home_line": 8.5,
      "away_line": -8.5,
      "home_line_price": -112.0,
      "away_line_price": -108.0,
      "total": 48.5,
      "under_line": 48.5,
      "over_price": -105.0,
      "under_price": -115.0,
      "home_ml": 270.0,
      "away_ml": -340.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 3,
      "base": 2.972115384615382,
      "production_adjusted": 2.972115384615382,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.6038461538461597,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            30.229020979020977,
            24.048951048951047
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -2.31993006993007,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.31993006993007
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            29.495483298244295,
            24.981719707319876
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -3.9862364090755804,
          "scenario_minimum": -3.9862364090755804
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            33.71346153846154,
            22.241346153846155
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.972115384615382,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.972115384615382
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            33.71346153846154,
            22.241346153846155
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.972115384615382,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.972115384615382
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          33.71346153846154,
          25.817307692307697
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -0.6038461538461597,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.6038461538461597
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            33.71346153846154,
            22.241346153846155
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.972115384615382,
          "stressed_buffer": -0.027884615384618172
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            33.71346153846154,
            25.817307692307697
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -0.6038461538461597,
          "stressed_buffer": -3.6038461538461597
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          33.71346153846154,
          25.817307692307697
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          32.46153846153846,
          20.048076923076923
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          29.200000000000003,
          27.200000000000003
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          2.882692307692307,
          -1.3826923076923072
        ]
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "playing_conditions",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
          "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lincoln&state=NE&site=OAX&textField1=40.8164&textField2=-96.6882&e=0"
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic",
            "Primary"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 2,
      "one_tier_downgrade": true,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lincoln&state=NE&site=OAX&textField1=40.8164&textField2=-96.6882&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T11:00:00-05:00",
        "window": "Sunny, with a high near 91. Breezy, with a south wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 37,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401858481",
    "matchup": "Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "ELIGIBLE",
    "reasons": [
      "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "over",
      "line": 48.5,
      "price": -105.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858481",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.312995+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.619872+00:00",
      "home_line": 8.5,
      "away_line": -8.5,
      "home_line_price": -112.0,
      "away_line_price": -108.0,
      "total": 48.5,
      "under_line": 48.5,
      "over_price": -105.0,
      "under_price": -115.0,
      "home_ml": 270.0,
      "away_ml": -340.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 7.454807692307696,
      "production_adjusted": 7.454807692307696,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 7.454807692307696,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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          ],
          "directional_buffer": 5.777972027972027,
          "scenario_minimum": 5.777972027972027
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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          ],
          "directional_buffer": 5.977203005564171,
          "scenario_minimum": 5.977203005564171
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.454807692307696,
          "scenario_minimum": 7.454807692307696
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.454807692307696,
          "scenario_minimum": 7.454807692307696
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      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": true,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
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        "directional_buffer": 7.454807692307696,
        "stressed_buffer": 4.454807692307696
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            33.71346153846154,
            22.241346153846155
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.454807692307696,
          "stressed_buffer": 4.454807692307696
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            33.71346153846154,
            25.817307692307697
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 11.030769230769238,
          "stressed_buffer": 8.030769230769238
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          33.71346153846154,
          25.817307692307697
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          32.46153846153846,
          20.048076923076923
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        "currentMatchup": [
          29.200000000000003,
          27.200000000000003
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          2.882692307692307,
          -1.3826923076923072
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      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "playing_conditions",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
          "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lincoln&state=NE&site=OAX&textField1=40.8164&textField2=-96.6882&e=0"
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lincoln&state=NE&site=OAX&textField1=40.8164&textField2=-96.6882&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T11:00:00-05:00",
        "window": "Sunny, with a high near 91. Breezy, with a south wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 37,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5044387/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5078312/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5081107/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5083370/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5110168/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5127885/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5141556/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5141607/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5227018/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5290565/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/4685401/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/4685516/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/4695867/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5079600/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5091725/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5142604/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5146724/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5146735/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5214648/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5216524/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx
• https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lincoln&state=NE&site=OAX&textField1=40.8164&textField2=-96.6882&e=0
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/158/roster?season=2026
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/84/roster?season=2026
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/leaders?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/leaders?lang=en&region=us
• https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401862795",
    "matchup": "Tulane Green Wave at Army Black Knights",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "home",
      "team": "Army Black Knights",
      "line": -3.5,
      "price": -108.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862795",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.623394+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.919157+00:00",
      "home_line": -3.5,
      "away_line": 3.5,
      "home_line_price": -108.0,
      "away_line_price": -112.0,
      "total": 48.5,
      "under_line": 48.5,
      "over_price": -105.0,
      "under_price": -115.0,
      "home_ml": -166.0,
      "away_ml": 140.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 3.3423076923076955,
      "production_adjusted": 3.3423076923076955,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.17724358974359333,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            22.29807692307692,
            25.559615384615384
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          "directional_buffer": -0.23846153846153584,
          "scenario_minimum": -0.23846153846153584
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            16.840336546143117,
            27.609145943435514
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.268809397292397,
          "scenario_minimum": 7.268809397292397
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            21.227884615384614,
            28.07019230769231
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          "directional_buffer": 3.3423076923076955,
          "scenario_minimum": 3.3423076923076955
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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            28.07019230769231
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          "directional_buffer": 3.3423076923076955,
          "scenario_minimum": 3.3423076923076955
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          24.392948717948716,
          28.07019230769231
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        "directional_buffer": 0.17724358974359333,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.8227564102564067
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            21.227884615384614,
            28.07019230769231
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          "directional_buffer": 3.3423076923076955,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.34230769230769553
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
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            28.07019230769231
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          "directional_buffer": 0.17724358974359333,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.8227564102564067
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      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          24.392948717948716,
          28.07019230769231
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        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          25.580128205128204,
          22.516025641025642
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        "currentMatchup": [
          19.25,
          28.25
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -1.1871794871794876,
          2.6871794871794874
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      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "source_or_role_gap",
          "team": "Tulane Green Wave",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT",
          "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities."
        },
        {
          "type": "source_or_role_gap",
          "team": "Army Black Knights",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT",
          "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities."
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=West+Point&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=41.3623&textField2=-74.0273&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Light and variable wind.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Tulane Green Wave",
          "facts": [
            "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT"
          ]
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Army Black Knights",
          "facts": [
            "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401862795",
    "matchup": "Tulane Green Wave at Army Black Knights",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
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      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "over",
      "line": 48.5,
      "price": -105.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862795",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.623394+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.919157+00:00",
      "home_line": -3.5,
      "away_line": 3.5,
      "home_line_price": -108.0,
      "away_line_price": -112.0,
      "total": 48.5,
      "under_line": 48.5,
      "over_price": -105.0,
      "under_price": -115.0,
      "home_ml": -166.0,
      "away_ml": 140.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
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      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 5,
      "base": 0.7980769230769198,
      "production_adjusted": 0.7980769230769198,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.7980769230769198,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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            25.559615384615384
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          "directional_buffer": -0.6423076923076962,
          "scenario_minimum": -0.6423076923076962
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            16.840336546143117,
            27.609145943435514
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          "directional_buffer": -4.050517510421372,
          "scenario_minimum": -4.050517510421372
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            21.227884615384614,
            28.07019230769231
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.7980769230769198,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.7980769230769198
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        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            21.227884615384614,
            28.07019230769231
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          "directional_buffer": 0.7980769230769198,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.7980769230769198
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
          21.227884615384614,
          28.07019230769231
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 0.7980769230769198,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.20192307692308
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            21.227884615384614,
            28.07019230769231
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.7980769230769198,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.20192307692308
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            24.392948717948716,
            28.07019230769231
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.963141025641022,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.963141025641022
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          24.392948717948716,
          28.07019230769231
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          25.580128205128204,
          22.516025641025642
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          19.25,
          28.25
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -1.1871794871794876,
          2.6871794871794874
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "source_or_role_gap",
          "team": "Tulane Green Wave",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT",
          "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities."
        },
        {
          "type": "source_or_role_gap",
          "team": "Army Black Knights",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT",
          "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities."
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic",
            "Primary"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=West+Point&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=41.3623&textField2=-74.0273&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Light and variable wind.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Tulane Green Wave",
          "facts": [
            "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT"
          ]
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Army Black Knights",
          "facts": [
            "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401862795",
    "matchup": "Tulane Green Wave at Army Black Knights",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "home",
      "team": "Army Black Knights",
      "line": -3.5,
      "price": -108.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862795",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.623394+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.919157+00:00",
      "home_line": -3.5,
      "away_line": 3.5,
      "home_line_price": -108.0,
      "away_line_price": -112.0,
      "total": 48.5,
      "under_line": 48.5,
      "over_price": -105.0,
      "under_price": -115.0,
      "home_ml": -166.0,
      "away_ml": 140.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 3,
      "base": 3.3423076923076955,
      "production_adjusted": 3.3423076923076955,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.17724358974359333,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            22.29807692307692,
            25.559615384615384
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -0.23846153846153584,
          "scenario_minimum": -0.23846153846153584
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            16.840336546143117,
            27.609145943435514
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.268809397292397,
          "scenario_minimum": 7.268809397292397
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            21.227884615384614,
            28.07019230769231
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.3423076923076955,
          "scenario_minimum": 3.3423076923076955
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            21.227884615384614,
            28.07019230769231
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.3423076923076955,
          "scenario_minimum": 3.3423076923076955
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          24.392948717948716,
          28.07019230769231
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 0.17724358974359333,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.8227564102564067
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            21.227884615384614,
            28.07019230769231
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.3423076923076955,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.34230769230769553
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            24.392948717948716,
            28.07019230769231
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.17724358974359333,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.8227564102564067
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          24.392948717948716,
          28.07019230769231
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          25.580128205128204,
          22.516025641025642
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        "currentMatchup": [
          19.25,
          28.25
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        "registeredCorrections": [
          -1.1871794871794876,
          2.6871794871794874
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      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "source_or_role_gap",
          "team": "Tulane Green Wave",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT",
          "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities."
        },
        {
          "type": "source_or_role_gap",
          "team": "Army Black Knights",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT",
          "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities."
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=West+Point&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=41.3623&textField2=-74.0273&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Light and variable wind.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Tulane Green Wave",
          "facts": [
            "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT"
          ]
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Army Black Knights",
          "facts": [
            "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401862795",
    "matchup": "Tulane Green Wave at Army Black Knights",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "over",
      "line": 48.5,
      "price": -105.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862795",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.623394+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.919157+00:00",
      "home_line": -3.5,
      "away_line": 3.5,
      "home_line_price": -108.0,
      "away_line_price": -112.0,
      "total": 48.5,
      "under_line": 48.5,
      "over_price": -105.0,
      "under_price": -115.0,
      "home_ml": -166.0,
      "away_ml": 140.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 0.7980769230769198,
      "production_adjusted": 0.7980769230769198,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.7980769230769198,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            22.29807692307692,
            25.559615384615384
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          "directional_buffer": -0.6423076923076962,
          "scenario_minimum": -0.6423076923076962
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        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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          "directional_buffer": -4.050517510421372,
          "scenario_minimum": -4.050517510421372
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        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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            28.07019230769231
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          "directional_buffer": 0.7980769230769198,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.7980769230769198
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        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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            28.07019230769231
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          "directional_buffer": 0.7980769230769198,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.7980769230769198
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      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
          21.227884615384614,
          28.07019230769231
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        "directional_buffer": 0.7980769230769198,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.20192307692308
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      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            21.227884615384614,
            28.07019230769231
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.7980769230769198,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.20192307692308
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        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
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          "directional_buffer": 3.963141025641022,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.963141025641022
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      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          24.392948717948716,
          28.07019230769231
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          25.580128205128204,
          22.516025641025642
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        "currentMatchup": [
          19.25,
          28.25
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        "registeredCorrections": [
          -1.1871794871794876,
          2.6871794871794874
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      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "source_or_role_gap",
          "team": "Tulane Green Wave",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT",
          "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities."
        },
        {
          "type": "source_or_role_gap",
          "team": "Army Black Knights",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT",
          "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities."
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic",
            "Primary"
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        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=West+Point&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=41.3623&textField2=-74.0273&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Light and variable wind.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Tulane Green Wave",
          "facts": [
            "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT"
          ]
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Army Black Knights",
          "facts": [
            "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4432774/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4837391/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4870518/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4870635/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4871148/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/5079686/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/5091890/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/5150834/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/5218820/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/5222239/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5082118/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150297/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150316/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150326/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150329/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150333/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150373/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5219408/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5219468/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5293685/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=West+Point&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=41.3623&textField2=-74.0273&e=0
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2655/roster?season=2026
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/349/roster?season=2026
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/leaders?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/leaders?lang=en&region=us
• https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401866436",
    "matchup": "Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green Falcons",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "team": "Sacramento State Hornets",
      "line": 8.5,
      "price": -112.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866436",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.646728+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.878366+00:00",
      "home_line": -8.5,
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      "home_line_price": -108.0,
      "away_line_price": -112.0,
      "total": 43.5,
      "under_line": 43.5,
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      "under_price": -105.0,
      "home_ml": -325.0,
      "away_ml": 260.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 16.832499999999996,
      "production_adjusted": 16.832499999999996,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 15.144999999999996,
      "all_four_comparison": {
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          "adjusted_score": [
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            22.59090909090909
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          "directional_buffer": 12.477272727272727,
          "scenario_minimum": 12.477272727272727
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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            27.477125418332175
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 1.6186352225692033,
          "scenario_minimum": 1.6186352225692033
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            29.334999999999997,
            21.0025
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 16.832499999999996,
          "scenario_minimum": 16.832499999999996
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
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            21.0025
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          "directional_buffer": 16.832499999999996,
          "scenario_minimum": 16.832499999999996
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": true,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          29.334999999999997,
          22.69
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 15.144999999999996,
        "stressed_buffer": 12.144999999999996
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            29.334999999999997,
            21.0025
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 16.832499999999996,
          "stressed_buffer": 13.832499999999996
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            29.334999999999997,
            22.69
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 15.144999999999996,
          "stressed_buffer": 12.144999999999996
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          29.334999999999997,
          22.69
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          29.0,
          23.375
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          25.3,
          20.0
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          2.185,
          -0.685
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "source_or_role_gap",
          "team": "Sacramento State Hornets",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance",
          "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities."
        },
        {
          "type": "source_or_role_gap",
          "team": "Bowling Green Falcons",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance",
          "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities."
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bowling+Green&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.3764&textField2=-83.6495&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Southeast wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 21,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED",
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        {
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          "kind": "availability",
          "team": "Bowling Green Falcons",
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            "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance"
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      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
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    "potential_tier": null,
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    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
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    "configuration": "ON",
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        "Primary": {
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          "directional_buffer": 4.572886059233554,
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        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
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          "directional_buffer": 6.837499999999999,
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        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
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          "directional_buffer": 6.837499999999999,
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      "scenarios": [
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        {
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      "opponent_reference": {
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        {
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          "team": "Bowling Green Falcons",
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            "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance"
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      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
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    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
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}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
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    "market": "spread",
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      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866436",
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}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/4912040/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/4920192/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5082587/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5084459/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5152796/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5158748/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5158759/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5161820/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5225846/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5310132/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/4912647/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5121607/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5147347/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5193284/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5193300/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5207804/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5219017/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5226453/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5231360/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5385753/statistics/0?lang=en&region=us
• https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bowling+Green&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.3764&textField2=-83.6495&e=0
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/16/roster?season=2026
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/189/roster?season=2026
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/leaders?lang=en&region=us
• https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/leaders?lang=en&region=us
• https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401866658",
    "matchup": "New Hampshire Wildcats at North Carolina A&T Aggies",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "team": "New Hampshire Wildcats",
      "line": -5.5,
      "price": -113.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866658",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.647731+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.915140+00:00",
      "home_line": 5.5,
      "away_line": -5.5,
      "home_line_price": -110.0,
      "away_line_price": -113.0,
      "total": 47.5,
      "under_line": 47.5,
      "over_price": -113.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": 174.0,
      "away_ml": -221.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 4.137500000000003,
      "production_adjusted": 4.137500000000003,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.140705128205127,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            29.107371794871796,
            24.419871794871796
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -0.8125,
          "scenario_minimum": -0.8125
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            26.706848226759874,
            27.04832741242569
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -5.841479185665815,
          "scenario_minimum": -5.841479185665815
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            32.3323717948718,
            22.694871794871794
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.137500000000003,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.137500000000003
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            32.3323717948718,
            22.694871794871794
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.137500000000003,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.137500000000003
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          32.3323717948718,
          24.69166666666667
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 2.140705128205127,
        "stressed_buffer": -0.859294871794873
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            32.3323717948718,
            22.694871794871794
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.137500000000003,
          "stressed_buffer": 1.1375000000000028
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            32.3323717948718,
            24.69166666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.140705128205127,
          "stressed_buffer": -0.859294871794873
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          32.3323717948718,
          24.691666666666666
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          34.21474358974359,
          21.673076923076923
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          25.5,
          25.666666666666668
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          2.4750000000000005,
          -0.9750000000000005
        ]
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "playing_conditions",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
          "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0"
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic",
            "Primary"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 2,
      "one_tier_downgrade": true,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Rain, mainly before 2pm, then showers after 2pm.  High near 64. Northeast wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 29,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401866658",
    "matchup": "New Hampshire Wildcats at North Carolina A&T Aggies",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "ELIGIBLE",
    "reasons": [
      "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "over",
      "line": 47.5,
      "price": -113.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866658",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.647731+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.915140+00:00",
      "home_line": 5.5,
      "away_line": -5.5,
      "home_line_price": -110.0,
      "away_line_price": -113.0,
      "total": 47.5,
      "under_line": 47.5,
      "over_price": -113.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": 174.0,
      "away_ml": -221.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 5,
      "base": 7.527243589743591,
      "production_adjusted": 7.527243589743591,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 7.527243589743591,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            29.107371794871796,
            24.419871794871796
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 6.027243589743591,
          "scenario_minimum": 6.027243589743591
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            26.706848226759874,
            27.04832741242569
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 6.255175639185566,
          "scenario_minimum": 6.255175639185566
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            32.3323717948718,
            22.694871794871794
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.527243589743591,
          "scenario_minimum": 7.527243589743591
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            32.3323717948718,
            22.694871794871794
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.527243589743591,
          "scenario_minimum": 7.527243589743591
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": true,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
          32.3323717948718,
          22.694871794871794
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 7.527243589743591,
        "stressed_buffer": 4.527243589743591
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            32.3323717948718,
            22.694871794871794
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.527243589743591,
          "stressed_buffer": 4.527243589743591
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            32.3323717948718,
            24.69166666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 9.524038461538467,
          "stressed_buffer": 6.524038461538467
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          32.3323717948718,
          24.691666666666666
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          34.21474358974359,
          21.673076923076923
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          25.5,
          25.666666666666668
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          2.4750000000000005,
          -0.9750000000000005
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "playing_conditions",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
          "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0"
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Rain, mainly before 2pm, then showers after 2pm.  High near 64. Northeast wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 29,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401866658",
    "matchup": "New Hampshire Wildcats at North Carolina A&T Aggies",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "team": "New Hampshire Wildcats",
      "line": -5.5,
      "price": -113.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866658",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.647731+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.915140+00:00",
      "home_line": 5.5,
      "away_line": -5.5,
      "home_line_price": -110.0,
      "away_line_price": -113.0,
      "total": 47.5,
      "under_line": 47.5,
      "over_price": -113.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": 174.0,
      "away_ml": -221.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 3,
      "base": 4.137500000000003,
      "production_adjusted": 4.137500000000003,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.140705128205127,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            29.107371794871796,
            24.419871794871796
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -0.8125,
          "scenario_minimum": -0.8125
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            26.706848226759874,
            27.04832741242569
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -5.841479185665815,
          "scenario_minimum": -5.841479185665815
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            32.3323717948718,
            22.694871794871794
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.137500000000003,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.137500000000003
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            32.3323717948718,
            22.694871794871794
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.137500000000003,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.137500000000003
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          32.3323717948718,
          24.69166666666667
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 2.140705128205127,
        "stressed_buffer": -0.859294871794873
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            32.3323717948718,
            22.694871794871794
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.137500000000003,
          "stressed_buffer": 1.1375000000000028
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            32.3323717948718,
            24.69166666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.140705128205127,
          "stressed_buffer": -0.859294871794873
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          32.3323717948718,
          24.691666666666666
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          34.21474358974359,
          21.673076923076923
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          25.5,
          25.666666666666668
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          2.4750000000000005,
          -0.9750000000000005
        ]
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "playing_conditions",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
          "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0"
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic",
            "Primary"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 2,
      "one_tier_downgrade": true,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Rain, mainly before 2pm, then showers after 2pm.  High near 64. Northeast wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 29,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401866658",
    "matchup": "New Hampshire Wildcats at North Carolina A&T Aggies",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "ELIGIBLE",
    "reasons": [
      "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "over",
      "line": 47.5,
      "price": -113.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866658",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.647731+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.915140+00:00",
      "home_line": 5.5,
      "away_line": -5.5,
      "home_line_price": -110.0,
      "away_line_price": -113.0,
      "total": 47.5,
      "under_line": 47.5,
      "over_price": -113.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": 174.0,
      "away_ml": -221.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 7.527243589743591,
      "production_adjusted": 7.527243589743591,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 7.527243589743591,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            29.107371794871796,
            24.419871794871796
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 6.027243589743591,
          "scenario_minimum": 6.027243589743591
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            26.706848226759874,
            27.04832741242569
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 6.255175639185566,
          "scenario_minimum": 6.255175639185566
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            32.3323717948718,
            22.694871794871794
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.527243589743591,
          "scenario_minimum": 7.527243589743591
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            32.3323717948718,
            22.694871794871794
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.527243589743591,
          "scenario_minimum": 7.527243589743591
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": true,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
          32.3323717948718,
          22.694871794871794
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 7.527243589743591,
        "stressed_buffer": 4.527243589743591
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            32.3323717948718,
            22.694871794871794
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.527243589743591,
          "stressed_buffer": 4.527243589743591
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            32.3323717948718,
            24.69166666666667
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 9.524038461538467,
          "stressed_buffer": 6.524038461538467
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "away",
        "scorePair": [
          32.3323717948718,
          24.691666666666666
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          34.21474358974359,
          21.673076923076923
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          25.5,
          25.666666666666668
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          2.4750000000000005,
          -0.9750000000000005
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "playing_conditions",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
          "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0"
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Rain, mainly before 2pm, then showers after 2pm.  High near 64. Northeast wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 29,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0
• https://ncataggies.com/sports/football/schedule/2026
• https://unhwildcats.com/sports/football/schedule/2026

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401866660",
    "matchup": "Stonehill Skyhawks at Sacred Heart Pioneers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "home",
      "team": "Sacred Heart Pioneers",
      "line": -8.5,
      "price": -112.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866660",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.684581+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.863275+00:00",
      "home_line": -8.5,
      "away_line": 8.5,
      "home_line_price": -112.0,
      "away_line_price": -110.0,
      "total": 43.5,
      "under_line": 43.5,
      "over_price": -113.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": -352.0,
      "away_ml": 265.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 0.8000000000000043,
      "production_adjusted": 0.8000000000000043,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.6666666666666643,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            19.795454545454547,
            25.704545454545453
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -2.5909090909090935,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.5909090909090935
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            15.879576355922412,
            29.671756895765892
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 5.29218053984348,
          "scenario_minimum": 5.29218053984348
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            18.799999999999997,
            28.1
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.8000000000000043,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.8000000000000043
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            18.799999999999997,
            28.1
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.8000000000000043,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.8000000000000043
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          18.933333333333337,
          28.1
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 0.6666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.3333333333333357
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            18.799999999999997,
            28.1
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.8000000000000043,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.1999999999999957
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            18.933333333333337,
            28.1
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.6666666666666643,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.3333333333333357
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          18.933333333333334,
          28.1
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          20.666666666666668,
          25.833333333333332
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          20.4,
          23.9
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -1.7333333333333334,
          3.2333333333333334
        ]
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fairfield&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.13&textField2=-73.28&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 66. North wind around 6 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401866660",
    "matchup": "Stonehill Skyhawks at Sacred Heart Pioneers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "over",
      "line": 43.5,
      "price": -113.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866660",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.684581+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.863275+00:00",
      "home_line": -8.5,
      "away_line": 8.5,
      "home_line_price": -112.0,
      "away_line_price": -110.0,
      "total": 43.5,
      "under_line": 43.5,
      "over_price": -113.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": -352.0,
      "away_ml": 265.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 5,
      "base": 3.3999999999999986,
      "production_adjusted": 3.3999999999999986,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.3999999999999986,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            19.795454545454547,
            25.704545454545453
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.0,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.0
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            15.879576355922412,
            29.671756895765892
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.0513332516883054,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.0513332516883054
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            18.799999999999997,
            28.1
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.3999999999999986,
          "scenario_minimum": 3.3999999999999986
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            18.799999999999997,
            28.1
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.3999999999999986,
          "scenario_minimum": 3.3999999999999986
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
          18.799999999999997,
          28.1
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 3.3999999999999986,
        "stressed_buffer": 0.3999999999999986
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            18.799999999999997,
            28.1
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.3999999999999986,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.3999999999999986
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            18.933333333333337,
            28.1
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.5333333333333385,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.5333333333333385
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          18.933333333333334,
          28.1
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          20.666666666666668,
          25.833333333333332
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          20.4,
          23.9
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -1.7333333333333334,
          3.2333333333333334
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fairfield&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.13&textField2=-73.28&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 66. North wind around 6 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401866660",
    "matchup": "Stonehill Skyhawks at Sacred Heart Pioneers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "home",
      "team": "Sacred Heart Pioneers",
      "line": -8.5,
      "price": -112.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866660",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.684581+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.863275+00:00",
      "home_line": -8.5,
      "away_line": 8.5,
      "home_line_price": -112.0,
      "away_line_price": -110.0,
      "total": 43.5,
      "under_line": 43.5,
      "over_price": -113.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": -352.0,
      "away_ml": 265.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 3,
      "base": 0.8000000000000043,
      "production_adjusted": 0.8000000000000043,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.6666666666666643,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            19.795454545454547,
            25.704545454545453
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -2.5909090909090935,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.5909090909090935
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            15.879576355922412,
            29.671756895765892
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 5.29218053984348,
          "scenario_minimum": 5.29218053984348
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            18.799999999999997,
            28.1
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.8000000000000043,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.8000000000000043
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            18.799999999999997,
            28.1
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.8000000000000043,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.8000000000000043
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          18.933333333333337,
          28.1
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 0.6666666666666643,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.3333333333333357
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            18.799999999999997,
            28.1
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.8000000000000043,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.1999999999999957
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            18.933333333333337,
            28.1
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.6666666666666643,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.3333333333333357
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          18.933333333333334,
          28.1
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          20.666666666666668,
          25.833333333333332
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          20.4,
          23.9
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -1.7333333333333334,
          3.2333333333333334
        ]
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fairfield&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.13&textField2=-73.28&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 66. North wind around 6 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401866660",
    "matchup": "Stonehill Skyhawks at Sacred Heart Pioneers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "over",
      "line": 43.5,
      "price": -113.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866660",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.684581+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.863275+00:00",
      "home_line": -8.5,
      "away_line": 8.5,
      "home_line_price": -112.0,
      "away_line_price": -110.0,
      "total": 43.5,
      "under_line": 43.5,
      "over_price": -113.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": -352.0,
      "away_ml": 265.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 3.3999999999999986,
      "production_adjusted": 3.3999999999999986,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.3999999999999986,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            19.795454545454547,
            25.704545454545453
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.0,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.0
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            15.879576355922412,
            29.671756895765892
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.0513332516883054,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.0513332516883054
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            18.799999999999997,
            28.1
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.3999999999999986,
          "scenario_minimum": 3.3999999999999986
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            18.799999999999997,
            28.1
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.3999999999999986,
          "scenario_minimum": 3.3999999999999986
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
          18.799999999999997,
          28.1
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 3.3999999999999986,
        "stressed_buffer": 0.3999999999999986
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            18.799999999999997,
            28.1
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.3999999999999986,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.3999999999999986
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            18.933333333333337,
            28.1
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.5333333333333385,
          "stressed_buffer": 0.5333333333333385
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          18.933333333333334,
          28.1
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          20.666666666666668,
          25.833333333333332
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          20.4,
          23.9
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -1.7333333333333334,
          3.2333333333333334
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fairfield&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.13&textField2=-73.28&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 66. North wind around 6 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fairfield&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.13&textField2=-73.28&e=0
• https://sacredheartpioneers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026
• https://stonehillskyhawks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401866662",
    "matchup": "Bryant Bulldogs at Brown Bears",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "home",
      "team": "Brown Bears",
      "line": -4.5,
      "price": -110.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866662",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.685622+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.933156+00:00",
      "home_line": -4.5,
      "away_line": 4.5,
      "home_line_price": -110.0,
      "away_line_price": -113.0,
      "total": 42.5,
      "under_line": 42.5,
      "over_price": -109.0,
      "under_price": -114.0,
      "home_ml": -190.0,
      "away_ml": 151.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 0.4799999999999969,
      "production_adjusted": 0.4799999999999969,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -3.3116666666666674,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            21.441919191919194,
            25.002525252525253
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -0.9393939393939412,
          "scenario_minimum": -0.9393939393939412
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            17.385725176976333,
            30.17530325361801
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 8.289578076641678,
          "scenario_minimum": 8.289578076641678
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            20.185000000000002,
            25.165
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.4799999999999969,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.4799999999999969
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            20.185000000000002,
            25.165
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.4799999999999969,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.4799999999999969
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          23.976666666666667,
          25.165
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -3.3116666666666674,
        "stressed_buffer": -6.311666666666667
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            20.185000000000002,
            25.165
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.4799999999999969,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.520000000000003
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            23.976666666666667,
            25.165
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -3.3116666666666674,
          "stressed_buffer": -6.311666666666667
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          23.976666666666667,
          25.165
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          24.75,
          28.416666666666664
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          17.166666666666668,
          17.366666666666667
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -0.7733333333333331,
          2.273333333333333
        ]
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "sample_cap",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1–3 games; no coefficient change authorized."
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 1,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Providence&state=RI&site=BOX&textField1=41.822&textField2=-71.4197&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the afternoon.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "kind": "sample_cap",
          "facts": [
            "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1–3game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401866662",
    "matchup": "Bryant Bulldogs at Brown Bears",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "over",
      "line": 42.5,
      "price": -109.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866662",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.685622+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.933156+00:00",
      "home_line": -4.5,
      "away_line": 4.5,
      "home_line_price": -110.0,
      "away_line_price": -113.0,
      "total": 42.5,
      "under_line": 42.5,
      "over_price": -109.0,
      "under_price": -114.0,
      "home_ml": -190.0,
      "away_ml": 151.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 5,
      "base": 2.8500000000000014,
      "production_adjusted": 2.8500000000000014,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.8500000000000014,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            21.441919191919194,
            25.002525252525253
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.944444444444443,
          "scenario_minimum": 3.944444444444443
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            17.385725176976333,
            30.17530325361801
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 5.061028430594348,
          "scenario_minimum": 5.061028430594348
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            20.185000000000002,
            25.165
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.8500000000000014,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.8500000000000014
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            20.185000000000002,
            25.165
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.8500000000000014,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.8500000000000014
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
          20.185000000000002,
          25.165
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 2.8500000000000014,
        "stressed_buffer": -0.14999999999999858
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            20.185000000000002,
            25.165
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.8500000000000014,
          "stressed_buffer": -0.14999999999999858
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            23.976666666666667,
            25.165
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 6.641666666666666,
          "stressed_buffer": 3.6416666666666657
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          23.976666666666667,
          25.165
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          24.75,
          28.416666666666664
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          17.166666666666668,
          17.366666666666667
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -0.7733333333333331,
          2.273333333333333
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "sample_cap",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1–3 games; no coefficient change authorized."
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 1,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Providence&state=RI&site=BOX&textField1=41.822&textField2=-71.4197&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the afternoon.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "kind": "sample_cap",
          "facts": [
            "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1–3game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401866662",
    "matchup": "Bryant Bulldogs at Brown Bears",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "home",
      "team": "Brown Bears",
      "line": -4.5,
      "price": -110.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866662",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.685622+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.933156+00:00",
      "home_line": -4.5,
      "away_line": 4.5,
      "home_line_price": -110.0,
      "away_line_price": -113.0,
      "total": 42.5,
      "under_line": 42.5,
      "over_price": -109.0,
      "under_price": -114.0,
      "home_ml": -190.0,
      "away_ml": 151.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 3,
      "base": 0.4799999999999969,
      "production_adjusted": 0.4799999999999969,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -3.3116666666666674,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            21.441919191919194,
            25.002525252525253
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -0.9393939393939412,
          "scenario_minimum": -0.9393939393939412
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            17.385725176976333,
            30.17530325361801
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 8.289578076641678,
          "scenario_minimum": 8.289578076641678
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            20.185000000000002,
            25.165
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.4799999999999969,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.4799999999999969
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            20.185000000000002,
            25.165
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.4799999999999969,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.4799999999999969
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          23.976666666666667,
          25.165
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -3.3116666666666674,
        "stressed_buffer": -6.311666666666667
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            20.185000000000002,
            25.165
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.4799999999999969,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.520000000000003
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            23.976666666666667,
            25.165
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -3.3116666666666674,
          "stressed_buffer": -6.311666666666667
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          23.976666666666667,
          25.165
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          24.75,
          28.416666666666664
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          17.166666666666668,
          17.366666666666667
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -0.7733333333333331,
          2.273333333333333
        ]
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "sample_cap",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1–3 games; no coefficient change authorized."
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 1,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Providence&state=RI&site=BOX&textField1=41.822&textField2=-71.4197&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the afternoon.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "kind": "sample_cap",
          "facts": [
            "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1–3game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401866662",
    "matchup": "Bryant Bulldogs at Brown Bears",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "over",
      "line": 42.5,
      "price": -109.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866662",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.685622+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.933156+00:00",
      "home_line": -4.5,
      "away_line": 4.5,
      "home_line_price": -110.0,
      "away_line_price": -113.0,
      "total": 42.5,
      "under_line": 42.5,
      "over_price": -109.0,
      "under_price": -114.0,
      "home_ml": -190.0,
      "away_ml": 151.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 2.8500000000000014,
      "production_adjusted": 2.8500000000000014,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.8500000000000014,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            21.441919191919194,
            25.002525252525253
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 3.944444444444443,
          "scenario_minimum": 3.944444444444443
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            17.385725176976333,
            30.17530325361801
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 5.061028430594348,
          "scenario_minimum": 5.061028430594348
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            20.185000000000002,
            25.165
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.8500000000000014,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.8500000000000014
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            20.185000000000002,
            25.165
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.8500000000000014,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.8500000000000014
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
          20.185000000000002,
          25.165
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 2.8500000000000014,
        "stressed_buffer": -0.14999999999999858
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            20.185000000000002,
            25.165
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.8500000000000014,
          "stressed_buffer": -0.14999999999999858
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            23.976666666666667,
            25.165
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 6.641666666666666,
          "stressed_buffer": 3.6416666666666657
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          23.976666666666667,
          25.165
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          24.75,
          28.416666666666664
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          17.166666666666668,
          17.366666666666667
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -0.7733333333333331,
          2.273333333333333
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "sample_cap",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1–3 games; no coefficient change authorized."
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 1,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Providence&state=RI&site=BOX&textField1=41.822&textField2=-71.4197&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the afternoon.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "kind": "sample_cap",
          "facts": [
            "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1–3game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• https://brownbears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026
• https://bryantbulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026
• https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Providence&state=RI&site=BOX&textField1=41.822&textField2=-71.4197&e=0

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401867836",
    "matchup": "Dartmouth Big Green at Yale Bulldogs",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "home",
      "team": "Yale Bulldogs",
      "line": -6.0,
      "price": -110.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867836",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.685622+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.953536+00:00",
      "home_line": -6.0,
      "away_line": 6.0,
      "home_line_price": -110.0,
      "away_line_price": -112.0,
      "total": 52.5,
      "under_line": 52.5,
      "over_price": -110.0,
      "under_price": -113.0,
      "home_ml": -220.0,
      "away_ml": 173.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 0.1424999999999983,
      "production_adjusted": 0.1424999999999983,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -1.028333333333336,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.022222222222226,
            27.016666666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -2.00555555555556,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.00555555555556
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            19.35615834541282,
            31.774319904587273
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 6.418161559174454,
          "scenario_minimum": 6.418161559174454
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.130833333333335,
            29.273333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.1424999999999983,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.1424999999999983
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.130833333333335,
            29.273333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.1424999999999983,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.1424999999999983
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          24.30166666666667,
          29.273333333333333
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -1.028333333333336,
        "stressed_buffer": -4.028333333333336
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            23.130833333333335,
            29.273333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.1424999999999983,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.8575000000000017
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            24.30166666666667,
            29.273333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -1.028333333333336,
          "stressed_buffer": -4.028333333333336
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          24.30166666666667,
          29.273333333333333
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          22.991666666666667,
          25.316666666666666
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          25.333333333333336,
          28.166666666666664
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -1.0316666666666667,
          2.5316666666666667
        ]
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "sample_cap",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1–3 games; no coefficient change authorized."
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 1,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Haven&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.3101&textField2=-72.9241&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Light and variable wind becoming north around 6 mph.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "kind": "sample_cap",
          "facts": [
            "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1–3game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401867836",
    "matchup": "Dartmouth Big Green at Yale Bulldogs",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "under",
      "line": 52.5,
      "price": -113.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867836",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.685622+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.953536+00:00",
      "home_line": -6.0,
      "away_line": 6.0,
      "home_line_price": -110.0,
      "away_line_price": -112.0,
      "total": 52.5,
      "under_line": 52.5,
      "over_price": -110.0,
      "under_price": -113.0,
      "home_ml": -220.0,
      "away_ml": 173.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 5,
      "base": 0.09583333333333144,
      "production_adjusted": 0.09583333333333144,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -1.0750000000000028,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.022222222222226,
            27.016666666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.4611111111111086,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.4611111111111086
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            19.35615834541282,
            31.774319904587273
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 1.3695217499999046,
          "scenario_minimum": 1.3695217499999046
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.130833333333335,
            29.273333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.09583333333333144,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.09583333333333144
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.130833333333335,
            29.273333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.09583333333333144,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.09583333333333144
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          24.30166666666667,
          29.273333333333333
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -1.0750000000000028,
        "stressed_buffer": -4.075000000000003
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            23.130833333333335,
            29.273333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.09583333333333144,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.9041666666666686
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            24.30166666666667,
            29.273333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -1.0750000000000028,
          "stressed_buffer": -4.075000000000003
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          24.30166666666667,
          29.273333333333333
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          22.991666666666667,
          25.316666666666666
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          25.333333333333336,
          28.166666666666664
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -1.0316666666666667,
          2.5316666666666667
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "sample_cap",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1–3 games; no coefficient change authorized."
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 1,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Haven&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.3101&textField2=-72.9241&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Light and variable wind becoming north around 6 mph.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "kind": "sample_cap",
          "facts": [
            "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1–3game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401867836",
    "matchup": "Dartmouth Big Green at Yale Bulldogs",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "home",
      "team": "Yale Bulldogs",
      "line": -6.0,
      "price": -110.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867836",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.685622+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.953536+00:00",
      "home_line": -6.0,
      "away_line": 6.0,
      "home_line_price": -110.0,
      "away_line_price": -112.0,
      "total": 52.5,
      "under_line": 52.5,
      "over_price": -110.0,
      "under_price": -113.0,
      "home_ml": -220.0,
      "away_ml": 173.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 3,
      "base": 0.1424999999999983,
      "production_adjusted": 0.1424999999999983,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -1.028333333333336,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.022222222222226,
            27.016666666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -2.00555555555556,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.00555555555556
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            19.35615834541282,
            31.774319904587273
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 6.418161559174454,
          "scenario_minimum": 6.418161559174454
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.130833333333335,
            29.273333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.1424999999999983,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.1424999999999983
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.130833333333335,
            29.273333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.1424999999999983,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.1424999999999983
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          24.30166666666667,
          29.273333333333333
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -1.028333333333336,
        "stressed_buffer": -4.028333333333336
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            23.130833333333335,
            29.273333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.1424999999999983,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.8575000000000017
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            24.30166666666667,
            29.273333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -1.028333333333336,
          "stressed_buffer": -4.028333333333336
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          24.30166666666667,
          29.273333333333333
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          22.991666666666667,
          25.316666666666666
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          25.333333333333336,
          28.166666666666664
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -1.0316666666666667,
          2.5316666666666667
        ]
      },
      "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "sample_cap",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1–3 games; no coefficient change authorized."
        },
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Classic"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 1,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Haven&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.3101&textField2=-72.9241&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Light and variable wind becoming north around 6 mph.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "kind": "sample_cap",
          "facts": [
            "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1–3game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401867836",
    "matchup": "Dartmouth Big Green at Yale Bulldogs",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL",
      "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "under",
      "line": 52.5,
      "price": -113.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867836",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.685622+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.953536+00:00",
      "home_line": -6.0,
      "away_line": 6.0,
      "home_line_price": -110.0,
      "away_line_price": -112.0,
      "total": 52.5,
      "under_line": 52.5,
      "over_price": -110.0,
      "under_price": -113.0,
      "home_ml": -220.0,
      "away_ml": 173.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 0.09583333333333144,
      "production_adjusted": 0.09583333333333144,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -1.0750000000000028,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.022222222222226,
            27.016666666666666
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.4611111111111086,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.4611111111111086
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            19.35615834541282,
            31.774319904587273
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 1.3695217499999046,
          "scenario_minimum": 1.3695217499999046
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.130833333333335,
            29.273333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.09583333333333144,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.09583333333333144
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            23.130833333333335,
            29.273333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.09583333333333144,
          "scenario_minimum": 0.09583333333333144
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          24.30166666666667,
          29.273333333333333
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -1.0750000000000028,
        "stressed_buffer": -4.075000000000003
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            23.130833333333335,
            29.273333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 0.09583333333333144,
          "stressed_buffer": -2.9041666666666686
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            24.30166666666667,
            29.273333333333333
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -1.0750000000000028,
          "stressed_buffer": -4.075000000000003
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          24.30166666666667,
          29.273333333333333
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          22.991666666666667,
          25.316666666666666
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          25.333333333333336,
          28.166666666666664
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -1.0316666666666667,
          2.5316666666666667
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "sample_cap",
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "hardGate": true,
          "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1–3 games; no coefficient change authorized."
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 1,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Haven&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.3101&textField2=-72.9241&e=0",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Light and variable wind becoming north around 6 mph.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "kind": "sample_cap",
          "facts": [
            "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1–3game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• https://dartmouthsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026
• https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Haven&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.3101&textField2=-72.9241&e=0
• https://yalebulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401867919",
    "matchup": "Robert Morris Colonials at Morgan State Bears",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "ELIGIBLE",
    "reasons": [
      "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "team": "Robert Morris Colonials",
      "line": 10.0,
      "price": -110.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867919",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.868310+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.063101+00:00",
      "home_line": -10.0,
      "away_line": 10.0,
      "home_line_price": -113.0,
      "away_line_price": -110.0,
      "total": 53.5,
      "under_line": 53.5,
      "over_price": -113.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": -431.0,
      "away_ml": 315.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 4.225000000000001,
      "production_adjusted": 4.225000000000001,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 4.225000000000001,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            22.727272727272727,
            26.68181818181818
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 6.045454545454547,
          "scenario_minimum": 6.045454545454547
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            18.107603642853935,
            30.401082863967147
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -2.2934792211132127,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.2934792211132127
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            22.7875,
            28.5625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.225000000000001,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.225000000000001
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            22.7875,
            28.5625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.225000000000001,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.225000000000001
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": true,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
          22.7875,
          28.5625
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 4.225000000000001,
        "stressed_buffer": 1.2250000000000014
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            22.7875,
            28.5625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.225000000000001,
          "stressed_buffer": 1.2250000000000014
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            25.65,
            28.5625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.087499999999999,
          "stressed_buffer": 4.087499999999999
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          25.650000000000002,
          28.5625
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          20.875,
          24.125
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          26.6,
          28.1
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -0.9500000000000002,
          2.45
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Primary"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Baltimore&state=MD&site=LWX&textField1=39.3008&textField2=-76.6106&e=1",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401867919",
    "matchup": "Robert Morris Colonials at Morgan State Bears",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "under",
      "line": 53.5,
      "price": -110.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867919",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.868310+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.063101+00:00",
      "home_line": -10.0,
      "away_line": 10.0,
      "home_line_price": -113.0,
      "away_line_price": -110.0,
      "total": 53.5,
      "under_line": 53.5,
      "over_price": -113.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": -431.0,
      "away_ml": 315.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 5,
      "base": 2.1499999999999986,
      "production_adjusted": 2.1499999999999986,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.7124999999999986,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            22.727272727272727,
            26.68181818181818
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.0909090909090935,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.0909090909090935
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            18.107603642853935,
            30.401082863967147
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.991313493178922,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.991313493178922
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            22.7875,
            28.5625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.1499999999999986,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.1499999999999986
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            22.7875,
            28.5625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.1499999999999986,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.1499999999999986
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          25.65,
          28.5625
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -0.7124999999999986,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.7124999999999986
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            22.7875,
            28.5625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.1499999999999986,
          "stressed_buffer": -0.8500000000000014
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            25.65,
            28.5625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -0.7124999999999986,
          "stressed_buffer": -3.7124999999999986
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          25.650000000000002,
          28.5625
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          20.875,
          24.125
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          26.6,
          28.1
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -0.9500000000000002,
          2.45
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Baltimore&state=MD&site=LWX&textField1=39.3008&textField2=-76.6106&e=1",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401867919",
    "matchup": "Robert Morris Colonials at Morgan State Bears",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "ELIGIBLE",
    "reasons": [
      "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "away",
      "team": "Robert Morris Colonials",
      "line": 10.0,
      "price": -110.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867919",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.868310+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.063101+00:00",
      "home_line": -10.0,
      "away_line": 10.0,
      "home_line_price": -113.0,
      "away_line_price": -110.0,
      "total": 53.5,
      "under_line": 53.5,
      "over_price": -113.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": -431.0,
      "away_ml": 315.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 3,
      "base": 4.225000000000001,
      "production_adjusted": 4.225000000000001,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": 4.225000000000001,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            22.727272727272727,
            26.68181818181818
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 6.045454545454547,
          "scenario_minimum": 6.045454545454547
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            18.107603642853935,
            30.401082863967147
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -2.2934792211132127,
          "scenario_minimum": -2.2934792211132127
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            22.7875,
            28.5625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.225000000000001,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.225000000000001
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            22.7875,
            28.5625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.225000000000001,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.225000000000001
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">0",
      "survives": true,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
        "score": [
          22.7875,
          28.5625
        ],
        "directional_buffer": 4.225000000000001,
        "stressed_buffer": 1.2250000000000014
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            22.7875,
            28.5625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.225000000000001,
          "stressed_buffer": 1.2250000000000014
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            25.65,
            28.5625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 7.087499999999999,
          "stressed_buffer": 4.087499999999999
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          25.650000000000002,
          28.5625
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          20.875,
          24.125
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          26.6,
          28.1
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -0.9500000000000002,
          2.45
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [
        {
          "type": "engine_direction_disagreement",
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection",
          "models": [
            "Primary"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 1,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Baltimore&state=MD&site=LWX&textField1=39.3008&textField2=-76.6106&e=1",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401867919",
    "matchup": "Robert Morris Colonials at Morgan State Bears",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR",
      "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL"
    ],
    "selection": {
      "side": "under",
      "line": 53.5,
      "price": -110.0
    },
    "quote": {
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "provider_id": "100",
      "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867919",
      "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.868310+00:00",
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.063101+00:00",
      "home_line": -10.0,
      "away_line": 10.0,
      "home_line_price": -113.0,
      "away_line_price": -110.0,
      "total": 53.5,
      "under_line": 53.5,
      "over_price": -113.0,
      "under_price": -110.0,
      "home_ml": -431.0,
      "away_ml": 315.0,
      "spread_complete": true,
      "total_complete": true,
      "moneyline_complete": true
    },
    "buffer": {
      "required_mean_floor": 4,
      "base": 2.1499999999999986,
      "production_adjusted": 2.1499999999999986,
      "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.7124999999999986,
      "all_four_comparison": {
        "Classic": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            22.727272727272727,
            26.68181818181818
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.0909090909090935,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.0909090909090935
        },
        "Primary": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            18.107603642853935,
            30.401082863967147
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 4.991313493178922,
          "scenario_minimum": 4.991313493178922
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative ON": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            22.7875,
            28.5625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.1499999999999986,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.1499999999999986
        },
        "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": {
          "adjusted_score": [
            22.7875,
            28.5625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.1499999999999986,
          "scenario_minimum": 2.1499999999999986
        }
      }
    },
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1",
      "survives": false,
      "worst": {
        "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
        "score": [
          25.65,
          28.5625
        ],
        "directional_buffer": -0.7124999999999986,
        "stressed_buffer": -3.7124999999999986
      },
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination",
          "score": [
            22.7875,
            28.5625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": 2.1499999999999986,
          "stressed_buffer": -0.8500000000000014
        },
        {
          "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability",
          "score": [
            25.65,
            28.5625
          ],
          "directional_buffer": -0.7124999999999986,
          "stressed_buffer": -3.7124999999999986
        }
      ],
      "opponent_reference": {
        "favoriteSide": "home",
        "scorePair": [
          25.650000000000002,
          28.5625
        ],
        "favoriteSurvives": true,
        "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.",
        "priorMatchup": [
          20.875,
          24.125
        ],
        "currentMatchup": [
          26.6,
          28.1
        ],
        "registeredCorrections": [
          -0.9500000000000002,
          2.45
        ]
      }
    },
    "riskdetails": {
      "records": [],
      "unresolved_high": 0,
      "unresolved_medium": 0,
      "one_tier_downgrade": false,
      "weather": {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast",
        "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Baltimore&state=MD&site=LWX&textField1=39.3008&textField2=-76.6106&e=1",
        "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00",
        "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning.",
        "maxForecastGustMph": 0,
        "numericAdjustment": null,
        "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated."
      },
      "frozen_screening_flags": [
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "kind": "availability",
          "facts": [
            "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption."
          ]
        }
      ],
      "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability."
    },
    "potential_tier": null,
    "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00",
    "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE"
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Baltimore&state=MD&site=LWX&textField1=39.3008&textField2=-76.6106&e=1
• https://morganstatebears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026
• https://rmucolonials.com/sports/football/schedule/2026