{ "created_utc": "2026-10-10T10:55:25.399046+00:00", "freeze_sha256": "559a8960565462a116a87bc3f3e55bc803f7b4bd31026a49ee775802b49a6977", "scope": { "MLB": 1, "NFL": 0, "NCAAF_FBS": 46, "NCAAF_FCS": 48, "NBA": 7, "WNBA": 0, "NCAAM": 0, "NHL": 14, "MLS": 14, "UFC_cards": 1, "UFC_bouts": 12, "numeric_events": 116, "all_scope_events": 142 }, "games": [ { "id": "401856716", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401856716", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3838", "fullName": "Memorial Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Columbia", "state": "MO", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "245", "away_name": "Texas A&M Aggies", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "142", "home_name": "Missouri Tigers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Terry Bussey", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ] }, { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Mario Craver", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ] }, { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Bussey third in receiving yards with 7 catches/92 yards; Craver second with 23/235. Distinct receiver opportunities support separate isolated scenarios. Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ] }, { "teamId": "142", "side": "home", "player": "Ahmad Hardy", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 36.333333333333336, 21.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 31.8, 18.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 32.166666666666664, 19.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 37.6, 20.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Terry Bussey", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ] }, { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Mario Craver", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ] }, { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Bussey third in receiving yards with 7 catches/92 yards; Craver second with 23/235. Distinct receiver opportunities support separate isolated scenarios. Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ] }, { "teamId": "142", "side": "home", "player": "Ahmad Hardy", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.5, 27.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Terry Bussey", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Mario Craver", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Bussey third in receiving yards with 7 catches/92 yards; Craver second with 23/235. Distinct receiver opportunities support separate isolated scenarios. Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "142", "side": "home", "player": "Ahmad Hardy", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.333333333333336, "pa": 21.916666666666668, "margin": 14.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752678", "401752694", "401752707", "401752724", "401752730", "401752737", "401752739", "401752748", "401752763", "401752772", "401752781", "401752792" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.8, "pa": 18.6, "margin": 13.2, "event_ids": [ "401856668", "401856683", "401856694", "401856702", "401856711" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.166666666666664, "pa": 19.416666666666668, "margin": 12.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752674", "401752689", "401752702", "401752713", "401752721", "401752734", "401752740", "401752752", "401752763", "401752770", "401752778", "401752783" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.6, "pa": 20.0, "margin": 17.6, "event_ids": [ "401856663", "401856678", "401856689", "401856703", "401856708" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.875, 27.041666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.9, 28.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.2733333333333331, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Terry Bussey", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Mario Craver", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Bussey third in receiving yards with 7 catches/92 yards; Craver second with 23/235. Distinct receiver opportunities support separate isolated scenarios. Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "142", "side": "home", "player": "Ahmad Hardy", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.333333333333336, "pa": 21.916666666666668, "margin": 14.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752678", "401752694", "401752707", "401752724", "401752730", "401752737", "401752739", "401752748", "401752763", "401752772", "401752781", "401752792" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.8, "pa": 18.6, "margin": 13.2, "event_ids": [ "401856668", "401856683", "401856694", "401856702", "401856711" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.166666666666664, "pa": 19.416666666666668, "margin": 12.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752674", "401752689", "401752702", "401752713", "401752721", "401752734", "401752740", "401752752", "401752763", "401752770", "401752778", "401752783" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.6, "pa": 20.0, "margin": 17.6, "event_ids": [ "401856663", "401856678", "401856689", "401856703", "401856708" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.875, 27.041666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.9, 28.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.2733333333333331, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Texas A&M Aggies", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Mario Craver" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401856716", "matchup": "Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Texas A&M Aggies", "names": [ "Mario Craver" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Texas A&M Aggies", "names": [ "Terry Bussey" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Missouri Tigers", "names": [ "Ahmad Hardy" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Bussey third in receiving yards with 7 catches/92 yards; Craver second with 23/235. Distinct receiver opportunities support separate isolated scenarios. Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained. | Hardy is an established 2025 lead back still OUT after offseason injury. Roberts already leads 2026 with 113 carries/606 yards; current scoring already contains that redistribution. Retain separate authorized human -3, with statistical incremental effect unestimated, not another rate-based downgrade.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 27.601666666666667, 29.344166666666666 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.875, 27.041666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.9, 28.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.2733333333333331, 1.773333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 143, "def_points_proxy": 93, "off_plays": 435, "off_yards": 2371, "def_plays": 350, "def_yards": 2090, "early_plays": 315, "early_yards": 1387, "explosive_plays": 24, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856668", "401856683", "401856694", "401856702", "401856711" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.4655172413793105, "def_ppd": 1.603448275862069, "off_ypp": 5.450574712643678, "def_ypp": 5.9714285714285715, "early_down_ypp": 4.4031746031746035 }, "home": { "off_drives": 64, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 185, "def_points_proxy": 95, "off_plays": 418, "off_yards": 2918, "def_plays": 434, "def_yards": 2172, "early_plays": 308, "early_yards": 1972, "explosive_plays": 44, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856663", "401856678", "401856689", "401856703", "401856708" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.890625, "def_ppd": 1.5573770491803278, "off_ypp": 6.980861244019139, "def_ypp": 5.0046082949308754, "early_down_ypp": 6.402597402597403 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Increasing clouds, with a high near 89. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 58. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Columbia&state=MO&site=LSX&textField1=38.9541&textField2=-92.3267&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Texas A&M Aggies", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Mario Craver" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856716", "matchup": "Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Texas A&M Aggies", "names": [ "Mario Craver" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Texas A&M Aggies", "names": [ "Terry Bussey" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Missouri Tigers", "names": [ "Ahmad Hardy" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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"http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5158975/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5199850", "name": "Carsyn Baker", "position": "RB", "workload": "29 CAR, 101 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5199850/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4685383", "name": "Isaiah Horton", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 248 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/4685383/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079345", "name": "Mario Craver", "position": "WR", "workload": "23 REC, 235 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5079345/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079326", "name": "Terry Bussey", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 92 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5079326/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5141358", "name": "Kiotti Armstrong", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 62 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5141358/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4801276", "name": "Houston Thomas", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 22 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/4801276/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Terry Bussey", "id": "5079326", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "4 CAR, 10 YDS, 1 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "7 REC, 92 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Mario Craver", "id": "5079345", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 6 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "23 REC, 235 YDS, 2 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Bussey third in receiving yards with 7 catches/92 yards; Craver second with 23/235. 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Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained.", "confirmed": [ "Terry Bussey" ], "conditional": [ "Mario Craver" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Terry Bussey", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 23.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "Primary": [ 18.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "TightenUpON": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ] } }, { "name": "Mario Craver", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 23.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "Primary": [ 18.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "TightenUpON": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -6, "overlapTreatment": "Bussey third in receiving yards with 7 catches/92 yards; Craver second with 23/235. 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Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained.", "overlapSensitivity": -3, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5079326", "name": "Terry Bussey", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/43", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 14, "rushingYards": 97, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.928999900817871, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 179, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079326/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 1, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1, "receptions": 15, "receivingYards": 182, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079326/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 10, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.5, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 92, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079326/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "245" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079345", "name": "Mario Craver", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/44", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "344", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 7, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.3329999446868896, "receptions": 17, "receivingYards": 368, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079345/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 11, "rushingYards": 81, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 7.363999843597412, "receptions": 52, "receivingYards": 825, "receivingTD": 4, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079345/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 6, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6, "receptions": 23, "receivingYards": 235, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079345/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "344", "245" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4685383", "name": "Isaiah Horton", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/49", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2390", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 56, "receivingYards": 616, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4685383/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "333", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 35, "receivingYards": 430, "receivingTD": 8, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4685383/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 17, "receivingYards": 248, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4685383/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2390", "333" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5139057", "name": "Ashton Bethel-Roman", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/761", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 44, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5139057/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 20, "receivingYards": 459, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5139057/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 5, "receivingYards": 32, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5139057/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "245" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5141358", "name": "Kiotti Armstrong", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/50", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "245", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141358/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141358/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 62, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141358/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "245" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Kiotti Armstrong", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Mario Craver" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/245/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856716", "teamId": "142", "team": "Missouri Tigers", "side": "home", "opponent": "Texas A&M Aggies", "conferenceReportKey": "Missouri", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5141684", "name": "Austin Simmons", "position": "QB", "workload": "93/137, 1287 YDS, 13 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5141684/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5195300", "name": "Matt Zollers", "position": "QB", "workload": "8/13, 87 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5195300/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4921116", "name": "Jamal Roberts", "position": "RB", "workload": "113 CAR, 606 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/4921116/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5225880", "name": "Xai'Shaun Edwards", "position": "RB", "workload": "33 CAR, 124 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5225880/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5333436", "name": "Preston Hatfield", "position": "RB", "workload": "4 CAR, 34 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5333436/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4870858", "name": "Cayden Lee", "position": "WR", "workload": "35 REC, 522 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/4870858/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141582", "name": "Donovan Olugbode", "position": "WR", "workload": "26 REC, 407 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5141582/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5195617", "name": "Shaun Terry II", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5195617/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4870869", "name": "Brett Norfleet", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/4870869/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Malae Fonoti", "id": "5225213", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "3 CAR, 18 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Ahmad Hardy", "id": "5197065", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Gavin Hoffman", "id": "5149008", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "DaMarion Fowlkes", "id": "5156379", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 35 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Brett Norfleet", "id": "4870869", "position": "TE", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "8 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Hardy is an established 2025 lead back still OUT after offseason injury. Roberts already leads 2026 with 113 carries/606 yards; current scoring already contains that redistribution. Retain separate authorized human -3, with statistical incremental effect unestimated, not another rate-based downgrade.", "confirmed": [ "Ahmad Hardy" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Ahmad Hardy", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 26.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ], "Primary": [ 21.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ], "TightenUpON": [ 26.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 26.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Hardy is an established 2025 lead back still OUT after offseason injury. Roberts already leads 2026 with 113 carries/606 yards; current scoring already contains that redistribution. Retain separate authorized human -3, with statistical incremental effect unestimated, not another rate-based downgrade.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 26.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 26.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 26.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5197065", "name": "Ahmad Hardy", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/29", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2433", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 237, "rushingYards": 1351, "rushingTD": 13, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.699999809265137, "receptions": 8, "receivingYards": 72, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5197065/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "142", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 241, "rushingYards": 1560, "rushingTD": 16, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.4730000495910645, "receptions": 6, "receivingYards": 22, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5197065/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "142", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5197065/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2433", "142" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4921116", "name": "Jamal Roberts", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/35", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "142", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 52, "rushingYards": 214, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.114999771118164, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 9, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4921116/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "142", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 113, "rushingYards": 697, "rushingTD": 5, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.168000221252441, "receptions": 17, "receivingYards": 139, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4921116/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "142", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 113, "rushingYards": 606, "rushingTD": 6, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.400000095367432, "receptions": 8, "receivingYards": 76, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4921116/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "142" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5225880", "name": "Xai'Shaun Edwards", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/36", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2277", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 6, "rushingYards": 21, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.5, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5225880/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2277", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 194, "rushingYards": 1019, "rushingTD": 12, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.252999782562256, "receptions": 18, "receivingYards": 106, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5225880/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "142", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 33, "rushingYards": 124, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.799999952316284, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 14, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5225880/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2277" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Ahmad Hardy", "year": 2026, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/142/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "https://mutigers.com/news/2026/07/24/three-tigers-selected-to-medias-preseason-all-sec-team", "https://mutigers.com/sports/football/roster/season/2026/player/ahmad-hardy", "https://mutigers.com/sports/football/roster/season/2026/player/jamal-roberts" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Fonoti three carries versus Roberts113 and Edwards33; Fowlkes two catches versus Lee35/Olugbode26. No additional material role trigger.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 18.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 27.601666666666667, 29.344166666666666 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.875, 27.041666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.9, 28.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.2733333333333331, 1.773333333333333 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers", "market": { "id": "401856716", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856716", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.310455+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.676141+00:00", "home_line": -3.5, "away_line": 3.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 49.5, "under_line": 49.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -180.0, "away_ml": 150.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -3.5, "average_total": 49.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 2.0454545454545467, "combined": 54.5, "spread_buffer": -1.4545454545454533, "total_difference": 5.0 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 2.0454545454545467, "combined": 48.5, "spread_buffer": -1.4545454545454533, "total_difference": -1.0 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 8.878116351747313, "combined": 51.92929496633049, "spread_buffer": 5.3781163517473125, 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"selection": { "side": "over", "line": 49.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856716", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.310455+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.676141+00:00", "home_line": -3.5, "away_line": 3.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 49.5, "under_line": 49.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -180.0, "away_ml": 150.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 6.458333333333329, "production_adjusted": 0.4583333333333286, "minimum_all_scenarios": -2.5416666666666714, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ], "directional_buffer": -1.0, "scenario_minimum": -4.0 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 18.52558930729159, 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Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.875, 27.041666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.9, 28.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.2733333333333331, 1.773333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Texas A&M Aggies", "names": [ "Mario Craver" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Texas A&M Aggies", "names": [ "Terry Bussey" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Missouri Tigers", "names": [ "Ahmad Hardy" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 3, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Columbia&state=MO&site=LSX&textField1=38.9541&textField2=-92.3267&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T11:00:00-05:00", "window": "Increasing clouds, with a high near 89. 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Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 32.583333333333336, 18.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 32.4, 16.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.75, 30.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 37.4, 28.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 24.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 24.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 29.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 29.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.583333333333336, "pa": 18.916666666666668, "margin": 13.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401756849", "401756879", "401756888", "401756904", "401756910", "401756916", "401756925", "401756937", "401756943", "401756951", "401756954", "401756961" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 16.6, "margin": 15.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401856773", "401856810", "401856793", "401856804", "401856820" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.75, "pa": 30.833333333333332, "margin": -9.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401756878", "401756883", "401754638", "401756899", "401756908", "401756909", "401756928", "401756935", "401756938", "401756947", "401756948", "401756968" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.4, "pa": 28.8, "margin": 8.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401856780", "401856791", "401856802", "401856881", "401856822" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.708333333333336, 20.333333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.6, 27.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.995, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34.0, 22.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 22.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.583333333333336, "pa": 18.916666666666668, "margin": 13.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401756849", "401756879", "401756888", "401756904", "401756910", "401756916", "401756925", "401756937", "401756943", "401756951", "401756954", "401756961" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 16.6, "margin": 15.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401856773", "401856810", "401856793", "401856804", "401856820" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.75, "pa": 30.833333333333332, "margin": -9.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401756878", "401756883", "401754638", "401756899", "401756908", "401756909", "401756928", "401756935", "401756938", "401756947", "401756948", "401756968" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.4, "pa": 28.8, "margin": 8.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401856780", "401856791", "401856802", "401856881", "401856822" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.708333333333336, 20.333333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.6, 27.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.995, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34.0, 22.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 22.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401856823", "matchup": "Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "names": [ "Giovanni Richardson", "Chris Hunter III" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "names": [ "Cole Rusk" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered. | West Virginia Mountaineers: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 34.149166666666666, 25.505 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.708333333333336, 20.333333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.6, 27.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.995, -1.495 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 56, "def_drives": 52, "off_points_proxy": 155, "def_points_proxy": 69, "off_plays": 421, "off_yards": 2636, "def_plays": 390, "def_yards": 1911, "early_plays": 321, "early_yards": 1733, "explosive_plays": 37, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856773", "401856793", "401856804", "401856810", "401856820" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.767857142857143, "def_ppd": 1.3269230769230769, "off_ypp": 6.261282660332542, "def_ypp": 4.9, "early_down_ypp": 5.398753894080997 }, "home": { "off_drives": 64, "def_drives": 63, "off_points_proxy": 187, "def_points_proxy": 137, "off_plays": 440, "off_yards": 2586, "def_plays": 465, "def_yards": 2658, "early_plays": 318, "early_yards": 1801, "explosive_plays": 40, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856780", "401856791", "401856802", "401856822", "401856881" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.921875, "def_ppd": 2.1746031746031744, "off_ypp": 5.877272727272727, "def_ypp": 5.716129032258064, "early_down_ypp": 5.663522012578617 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Tonight Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 5am. Low around 57. East wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Morgantown&state=WV&site=PBZ&textField1=39.6356&textField2=-79.9498&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856823", "matchup": "Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "names": [ "Giovanni Richardson", "Chris Hunter III" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "names": [ "Cole Rusk" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4612624/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4709804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4801717/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4804879/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4816108/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"401856823", "teamId": "12", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "side": "away", "opponent": "West Virginia Mountaineers", "conferenceReportKey": "Arizona", "officialReport": { "url": "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 21:00 America/Chicago", "conference": "B12" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4801717", "name": "Noah Fifita", "position": "QB", "workload": "124/168, 1415 YDS, 13 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4801717/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5158407", "name": "Sawyer Anderson", "position": "QB", "workload": "6/11, 84 YDS, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/5158407/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4899361", "name": "Kedrick Reescano", "position": "RB", "workload": "61 CAR, 218 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4899361/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4612624", "name": "Antwan Roberts Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 162 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4612624/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4804879", "name": "Quincy Craig", "position": "RB", "workload": "22 CAR, 142 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4804879/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4891198", "name": "Tre Spivey", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 314 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4891198/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5217700", "name": "Giovanni Richardson", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 187 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/5217700/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5198318", "name": "Isaiah Mizell", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 176 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/5198318/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4709804", "name": "Cole Rusk", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 86 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4709804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4816108", "name": "Tyler Powell", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 51 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4816108/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Giovanni Richardson", "id": "5217700", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "16 REC, 187 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Chris Hunter III", "id": "5093837", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 3 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "13 REC, 155 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Cole Rusk", "id": "4709804", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "6 REC, 86 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Ismail Mahdi", "id": "5084798", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "12 CAR, 72 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 5 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "confirmed": [ "Giovanni Richardson", "Chris Hunter III" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "Primary": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "TightenUpON": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] } }, { "name": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "Primary": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "TightenUpON": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -6, "conditionalDeduction": -6, "overlapTreatment": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "overlapSensitivity": -3, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5217700", "name": "Giovanni Richardson", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/121", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "12", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5217700/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 2, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2, "receptions": 19, "receivingYards": 271, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5217700/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 16, "receivingYards": 187, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5217700/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "12" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5093837", "name": "Chris Hunter III", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/119", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 7, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 7, "receptions": 35, "receivingYards": 323, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5093837/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 25, "receivingYards": 351, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5093837/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 3, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 155, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5093837/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "12" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4891198", "name": "Tre Spivey", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/128", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2306", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 14, "receivingYards": 160, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4891198/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 6, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3, "receptions": 21, "receivingYards": 359, "receivingTD": 6, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4891198/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 8, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4, "receptions": 22, "receivingYards": 314, "receivingTD": 4, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4891198/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2306", "12" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5198318", "name": "Isaiah Mizell", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/129", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "12", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5198318/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 39, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5198318/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 176, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5198318/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "12" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5121936", "name": "Brandon Phelps", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/130", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "12", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5121936/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 6, "receivingYards": 82, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5121936/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 8, "receivingYards": 138, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5121936/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "12" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5214651", "name": "Caleb Smith", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/131", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "12", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5214651/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "12", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5214651/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 9, "receivingYards": 125, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5214651/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "12" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4870754", "name": "Rodney Gallagher III", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/762", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "277", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 16, "rushingYards": 51, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.187999963760376, "receptions": 21, "receivingYards": 229, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4870754/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "277", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 14, "rushingYards": 83, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.928999900817871, "receptions": 28, "receivingYards": 243, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4870754/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 66, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4870754/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "277" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [ "Cole Rusk" ], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Isaiah Mizell", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Brandon Phelps", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Caleb Smith", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Caleb Smith", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/12/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [ { "name": "Cole Rusk", "id": "4709804", "status": "out", "reason": "Six catches/86 yards versus Tyler Powell eight/51; receiving-TE allocation is split. Retain conditional primary-option sensitivity; overlaps existing two-WR changes.", "condition": "Only if covered/main-role workload is confirmed; OUT is verified but main-role eligibility is conditional", "incumbentHistoryRef": "player-histories.json#/players/122", "candidateReplacements": [ { "id": "4816108", "name": "Tyler Powell", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 51 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4816108/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/780" } ], "statisticalPointEffect": null, "isolatedHumanDeduction": -3, "jointWithConfirmedDeduction": -6, "overlap": "Shared passing-drive/target uncertainty retained; no automatic extra joint deduction.", "scores": { "Classic": { "isolated": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ] }, "Primary": { "isolated": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ] }, "TightenUpON": { "isolated": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, "TightenUpOFF": { "isolated": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] } } } ] } }, { "eventId": "401856823", "teamId": "277", "team": "West Virginia Mountaineers", "side": "home", "opponent": "Arizona Wildcats", "conferenceReportKey": "West Virginia", "officialReport": { "url": "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 21:00 America/Chicago", "conference": "B12" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5079465", "name": "Michael Hawkins Jr.", "position": "QB", "workload": "47/83, 836 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5079465/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5164314", "name": "Scotty Fox Jr.", "position": "QB", "workload": "2/4, 27 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5164314/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4918103", "name": "Cam Cook", "position": "RB", "workload": "119 CAR, 652 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/4918103/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5161022", "name": "Amari Latimer", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5161022/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5384821", "name": "Martavious Boswell", "position": "RB", "workload": "8 CAR, 31 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5384821/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5082584", "name": "DJ Epps", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 393 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5082584/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4683719", "name": "Jaden Bray", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 152 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/4683719/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5150460", "name": "John Neider", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 71 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5150460/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5142265", "name": "Ryan Ward", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 39 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5142265/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4898018", "name": "Josh Sapp", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 3 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/4898018/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Armoni Weaver-Bomar", "id": "5141754", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "3 CAR, 14 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Andre Devine", "id": "5197058", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Cam Ball", "id": "4890881", "position": "TE", "status": "doubtful", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "John Neider", "id": "5150460", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "6 REC, 71 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "West Virginia Mountaineers: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/277/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Weaver-Bomar three catches versus Epps14/Bray9/Neider6 and only three carries; secondary rotation, no established main replacement.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 34.149166666666666, 25.505 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401856823", "matchup": "Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 60.5, "price": -105.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856823", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.639053+00:00", "home_line": 3.5, "away_line": -3.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 60.5, "under_line": 60.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 145.0, "away_ml": -175.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 4.179166666666667, "production_adjusted": 10.179166666666667, "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.8458333333333385, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "directional_buffer": 11.931818181818187, "scenario_minimum": 5.931818181818187 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "directional_buffer": 10.36417272219046, "scenario_minimum": 4.36417272219046 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 10.179166666666667, "scenario_minimum": 4.179166666666667 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 10.179166666666667, "scenario_minimum": 4.179166666666667 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 34.149166666666666, 25.504999999999995 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8458333333333385, "stressed_buffer": -2.1541666666666615 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 10.179166666666667, "stressed_buffer": 7.179166666666667 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 7.179166666666667, "stressed_buffer": 4.179166666666667 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 4.179166666666667, "stressed_buffer": 1.1791666666666671 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.149166666666666, 25.504999999999995 ], "directional_buffer": 6.8458333333333385, "stressed_buffer": 3.8458333333333385 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 31.149166666666666, 25.504999999999995 ], "directional_buffer": 3.8458333333333385, "stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333385 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 34.149166666666666, 25.504999999999995 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8458333333333385, "stressed_buffer": -2.1541666666666615 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 34.149166666666666, 25.505 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.708333333333336, 20.333333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.6, 27.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.995, -1.495 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "names": [ "Giovanni Richardson", "Chris Hunter III" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "names": [ "Cole Rusk" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Morgantown&state=WV&site=PBZ&textField1=39.6356&textField2=-79.9498&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401856824", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401856824", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3646", "fullName": "Boone Pickens Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Stillwater", "state": "OK", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2116", "away_name": "UCF Knights", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "197", "home_name": "Oklahoma State Cowboys", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2116", "side": "away", "player": "Alonza Barnett III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.333333333333332, 23.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 32.4, 17.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 14.166666666666666, 33.333333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 37.25, 19.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 23.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 23.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2116", "side": "away", "player": "Alonza Barnett III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2116", "side": "away", "player": "Alonza Barnett III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.333333333333332, "pa": 23.583333333333332, "margin": 0.75, "event_ids": [ "401756848", "401756886", "401754640", "401756906", "401756915", "401756917", "401756928", "401756936", "401756946", "401756953", "401756959", "401756963" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 17.6, "margin": 14.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401856767", "401856790", "401856800", "401856815", "401856819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.166666666666666, "pa": 33.333333333333336, "margin": -19.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401756876", "401752824", "401756900", "401756907", "401756910", "401756920", "401756926", "401756933", "401756940", "401756952", "401756959", "401756966" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 37.25, "pa": 19.75, "margin": 17.5, "event_ids": [ "401856772", "401856782", "401856803", "401856881" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 28.833333333333336, 18.875 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.075, 27.425 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.721666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 29.0, 23.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 23.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2116", "side": "away", "player": "Alonza Barnett III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.333333333333332, "pa": 23.583333333333332, "margin": 0.75, "event_ids": [ "401756848", "401756886", "401754640", "401756906", "401756915", "401756917", "401756928", "401756936", "401756946", "401756953", "401756959", "401756963" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 17.6, "margin": 14.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401856767", "401856790", "401856800", "401856815", "401856819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.166666666666666, "pa": 33.333333333333336, "margin": -19.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401756876", "401752824", "401756900", "401756907", "401756910", "401756920", "401756926", "401756933", "401756940", "401756952", "401756959", "401756966" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 37.25, "pa": 19.75, "margin": 17.5, "event_ids": [ "401856772", "401856782", "401856803", "401856881" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 28.833333333333336, 18.875 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.075, 27.425 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.721666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 29.0, 23.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 23.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401856824", "matchup": "UCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "UCF Knights", "names": [ "Alonza Barnett III" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Barnett has 49 attempts but is OUT; Jenkins has already assumed greater passing volume (76 attempts) and is PROBABLE. Carr has no verified material game workload and no additional deduction. Jenkins' 19/20 TCU performance and work with QB coach McKenzie Milton verify current team experience, not equivalence to Barnett. If Jenkins is later ruled out a new named Annett scenario is required; do not presume PROBABLE means unavailable. | Oklahoma State Cowboys: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 29.175833333333333, 27.203333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 28.833333333333336, 18.875 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.075, 27.425 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.721666666666667, -0.2216666666666669 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 63, "off_points_proxy": 157, "def_points_proxy": 87, "off_plays": 354, "off_yards": 2262, "def_plays": 467, "def_yards": 2476, "early_plays": 255, "early_yards": 1627, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856767", "401856790", "401856800", "401856815", "401856819" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.6610169491525424, "def_ppd": 1.380952380952381, "off_ypp": 6.389830508474576, "def_ypp": 5.301927194860814, "early_down_ypp": 6.3803921568627455 }, "home": { "off_drives": 51, "def_drives": 48, "off_points_proxy": 149, "def_points_proxy": 72, "off_plays": 379, "off_yards": 2717, "def_plays": 331, "def_yards": 1732, "early_plays": 285, "early_yards": 2033, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856772", "401856782", "401856803", "401856881" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.9215686274509802, "def_ppd": 1.5, "off_ypp": 7.1688654353562, "def_ypp": 5.232628398791541, "early_down_ypp": 7.133333333333334 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 90. Light south southeast wind becoming south southwest 8 to 13 mph in the morning. Tonight Clear, with a low around 64. South wind around 9 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Stillwater&state=OK&site=OUN&textField1=36.131&textField2=-97.0717&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856824", "matchup": "UCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "UCF Knights", "names": [ "Alonza Barnett III" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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"5153889", "name": "Josh Derry", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 220 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5153889/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5142600", "name": "Waden Charles", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 169 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5142600/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079386", "name": "Ric'Darious Farmer", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 95 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5079386/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5148656", "name": "Caden Piening", "position": "TE", "workload": "9 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5148656/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4922996", "name": "Dylan Wade", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 53 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/4922996/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Caleb Rollerson", "id": "5221393", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "4 REC, 38 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Alonza Barnett III", "id": "4911929", "position": "QB", "status": 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If Jenkins is later ruled out a new named Annett scenario is required; do not presume PROBABLE means unavailable.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "4911929", "name": "Alonza Barnett III", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/63", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "256", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 355, "passingYards": 2598, "passingTD": 26, "interceptions": 4, "sacks": 34, "completionPct": 60, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.317999839782715, "rushAttempts": 135, "rushingYards": 442, "rushingTD": 7, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.2739999294281006, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4911929/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "256", "status": "available", "games": 13, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 322, "passingYards": 2533, "passingTD": 21, "interceptions": 8, "sacks": 18, "completionPct": 59.9379997253418, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.866000175476074, "rushAttempts": 115, "rushingYards": 544, "rushingTD": 14, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.730000019073486, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4911929/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2116", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 49, "passingYards": 344, "passingTD": 2, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 4, "completionPct": 63.29999923706055, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7, "rushAttempts": 18, "rushingYards": 22, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.2000000476837158, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4911929/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "256" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5085337", "name": "Keyone Jenkins", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/68", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2229", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 304, "passingYards": 2557, "passingTD": 22, "interceptions": 8, "sacks": 15, "completionPct": 61.84199905395508, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8.41100025177002, "rushAttempts": 75, "rushingYards": 130, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.7330000400543213, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5085337/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2229", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 249, "passingYards": 1693, "passingTD": 9, "interceptions": 5, "sacks": 13, "completionPct": 63.051998138427734, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.798999786376953, "rushAttempts": 50, "rushingYards": 128, "rushingTD": 5, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.559999942779541, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5085337/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2116", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 76, "passingYards": 541, "passingTD": 4, "interceptions": 2, "sacks": 5, "completionPct": 69.69999694824219, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.099999904632568, "rushAttempts": 21, "rushingYards": 28, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.2999999523162842, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5085337/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2229" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5154248", "name": "Kaleb Annett", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/71", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "68", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5154248/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "68", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5154248/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2116", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 3, "passingYards": 6, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 66.69999694824219, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 2, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 9, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.5, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5154248/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "68" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Kaleb Annett", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Kaleb Annett", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2116/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "https://ucfknights.com/news/2026/10/6/football-set-for-second-straight-top-25-road-tilt-at-18-oklahoma-state", "https://ucfknights.com/news/2026/1/4/2026-football-transfer-portal-central" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Rollerson four catches/38 yards trails Derry17/Charles14/Farmer9 and both main TEs; no additional main-role deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856824", "teamId": "197", "team": "Oklahoma State Cowboys", "side": "home", "opponent": "UCF Knights", "conferenceReportKey": "Oklahoma State", "officialReport": { "url": "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 21:00 America/Chicago", "conference": "B12" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5219834", "name": "Drew Mestemaker", "position": "QB", "workload": "95/141, 1271 YDS, 11 TD, 5 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5219834/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5291690", "name": "Broderick Vehrs", "position": "QB", "workload": "6/6, 37 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5291690/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5258016", "name": "Caleb Hawkins", "position": "RB", "workload": "83 CAR, 441 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5258016/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4875861", "name": "Ayo Adeyi", "position": "RB", "workload": "24 CAR, 159 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/4875861/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5224505", "name": "Tre Page III", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5224505/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5148787", "name": "Wyatt Young", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 410 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5148787/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5083747", "name": "Justin Bowick", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 344 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5083747/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5148822", "name": "Chris Barnes", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 145 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5148822/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5228041", "name": "Carson Kolb", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 30 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5228041/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5083966", "name": "Morgan McPhaul", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 12 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5083966/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Wyatt Young", "id": "5148787", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "2 CAR, 10 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "22 REC, 410 YDS, 3 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Oklahoma State Cowboys: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/197/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 29.175833333333333, 27.203333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 28.833333333333336, 18.875 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.075, 27.425 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.721666666666667, -0.2216666666666669 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "UCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys", "market": { "id": "401856824", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856824", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.671053+00:00", "home_line": -10.5, "away_line": 10.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 53.5, "under_line": 53.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -108.0, "home_ml": -455.0, "away_ml": 350.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -10.5, "average_total": 53.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -4.31818181818182, "combined": 50.08181818181818, "spread_buffer": -14.81818181818182, "total_difference": -3.4181818181818215 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -1.3181818181818201, "combined": 47.08181818181818, "spread_buffer": -11.81818181818182, "total_difference": -6.4181818181818215 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.7210891385905498, "combined": 50.21350796502251, "spread_buffer": -8.77891086140945, "total_difference": -3.286492034977492 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 4.72108913859055, "combined": 47.21350796502251, "spread_buffer": -5.77891086140945, "total_difference": -6.286492034977492 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "153", "side": "away", "player": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ] }, { "teamId": "221", "side": "home", "player": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 19.25, 24.5 ], "current_rates": [ 24.0, 19.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 35.083333333333336, 24.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 38.4, 13.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 27.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "153", "side": "away", "player": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "isolated_score": [ 14.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 14.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ] }, { "teamId": "221", "side": "home", "player": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "153", "side": "away", "player": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "isolated_score": [ 13.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] }, { "teamId": "221", "side": "home", "player": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.25, "pa": 24.5, "margin": -5.25, "event_ids": [ "401754523", "401754527", "401754639", "401754640", "401754552", "401754371", "401754573", "401754575", "401754588", "401754596", "401754600", "401754612" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 19.5, "margin": 4.5, "event_ids": [ "401856766", "401858218", "401858229", "401858250" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 35.083333333333336, "pa": 24.916666666666668, "margin": 10.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754520", "401754529", "401754638", "401754547", "401754550", "401754559", "401754568", "401754574", "401754582", "401754597", "401754601", "401754611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 38.4, "pa": 13.4, "margin": 25.0, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401856790", "401858225", "401858236", "401858245" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.083333333333336, 29.791666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 18.7, 28.95 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.5916666666666672, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.0, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.0, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "153", "side": "away", "player": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "isolated_score": [ 13.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] }, { "teamId": "221", "side": "home", "player": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.25, "pa": 24.5, "margin": -5.25, "event_ids": [ "401754523", "401754527", "401754639", "401754640", "401754552", "401754371", "401754573", "401754575", "401754588", "401754596", "401754600", "401754612" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 19.5, "margin": 4.5, "event_ids": [ "401856766", "401858218", "401858229", "401858250" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 35.083333333333336, "pa": 24.916666666666668, "margin": 10.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754520", "401754529", "401754638", "401754547", "401754550", "401754559", "401754568", "401754574", "401754582", "401754597", "401754601", "401754611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 38.4, "pa": 13.4, "margin": 25.0, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401856790", "401858225", "401858236", "401858245" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.083333333333336, 29.791666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 18.7, 28.95 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.5916666666666672, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.0, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.0, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Jordan Shipp" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401858256", "matchup": "North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels", "names": [ "Jordan Shipp" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "names": [ "Mason Heintschel" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "names": [ "Elijah Lagg" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." }, { "type": "replacement_experience", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Geriner first full start with small current sample.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Shipp leads receiving with 20 catches/273 yards; QUESTIONABLE stays two branches. Thurman 16/233 already anchors a receiving-TE pathway. Listed reserve TEs are not automatically additional deductions. | Official October 5 coach report confirms Heintschel season-ending ACL injury and Geriner starter. Geriner completed 19/26 for 219 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in three appearances. First full start, third school in five years, current work with Kade Bell; changing coaches is not proof of no familiarity. No independent defensive score adjustment.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.491666666666667, 34.4625 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 22.083333333333336, 29.791666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 18.7, 28.95 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.5916666666666672, 5.091666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 41, "def_drives": 42, "off_points_proxy": 96, "def_points_proxy": 83, "off_plays": 290, "off_yards": 1853, "def_plays": 351, "def_yards": 1814, "early_plays": 213, "early_yards": 1246, "explosive_plays": 24, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856766", "401858218", "401858229", "401858250" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.341463414634146, "def_ppd": 1.9761904761904763, "off_ypp": 6.389655172413793, "def_ypp": 5.168091168091168, "early_down_ypp": 5.849765258215962 }, "home": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 192, "def_points_proxy": 67, "off_plays": 419, "off_yards": 2695, "def_plays": 417, "def_yards": 2180, "early_plays": 306, "early_yards": 1906, "explosive_plays": 39, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856790", "401858207", "401858225", "401858236", "401858245" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.2, "def_ppd": 1.0806451612903225, "off_ypp": 6.4319809069212415, "def_ypp": 5.227817745803358, "early_down_ypp": 6.228758169934641 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Light east wind becoming southeast 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Tonight Showers, mainly after 2am. Low around 57. East wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Pittsburgh&state=PA&site=PBZ&textField1=40.4392&textField2=-79.9767&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Jordan Shipp" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858256", "matchup": "North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels", "names": [ "Jordan Shipp" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "names": [ "Mason Heintschel" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "names": [ "Elijah Lagg" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." }, { "type": "replacement_experience", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Geriner first full start with small current sample.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/4592532/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/4870709/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/4871039/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/5008017/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/5077266/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4871039", "name": "Jelani Thurman", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/102", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 42, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4871039/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 84, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4871039/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "153", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 16, "receivingYards": 233, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4871039/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "194" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5159039", "name": "C.J. Sadler", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/103", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "153", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5159039/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "153", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5159039/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "153", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 5, "receivingYards": 87, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5159039/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "153" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5077266", "name": "Trech Kekahuna", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/104", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "275", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 11, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 11, "receptions": 25, "receivingYards": 339, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5077266/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "275", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 14, "rushingYards": 129, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 9.21399974822998, "receptions": 26, "receivingYards": 211, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5077266/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "153", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 6, "receivingYards": 71, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5077266/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "275" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "C.J. Sadler", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "C.J. Sadler", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Jordan Shipp" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/153/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858256", "teamId": "221", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "side": "home", "opponent": "North Carolina Tar Heels", "conferenceReportKey": "Pittsburgh", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5208095", "name": "Mason Heintschel", "position": "QB", "workload": "98/148, 1304 YDS, 14 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5208095/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4714300", "name": "Holden Geriner", "position": "QB", "workload": "19/26, 219 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/4714300/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5158978", "name": "Damon Ferguson Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "51 CAR, 270 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5158978/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4683234", "name": "La'Vell Wright", "position": "RB", "workload": "35 CAR, 145 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/4683234/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141677", "name": "Ja'Kyrian Turner", "position": "RB", "workload": "25 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5141677/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5102556", "name": "Cataurus Hicks", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 315 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5102556/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5210164", "name": "Bryce Yates", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 240 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5210164/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5089539", "name": "Censere Lee", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 195 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5089539/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5083135", "name": "Carson Kent", "position": "TE", "workload": "12 REC, 157 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5083135/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5296040", "name": "Elijah Lagg", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5296040/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Mason Heintschel", "id": "5208095", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "98/148, 1304 YDS, 14 TD, 1 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "30 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Elijah Lagg", "id": "5296040", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "7 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Max Hunt", "id": "5222252", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Rodney Dunbar", "id": "5379963", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Malik Knight", "id": "5089549", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "7 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Official October 5 coach report confirms Heintschel season-ending ACL injury and Geriner starter. Geriner completed 19/26 for 219 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in three appearances. First full start, third school in five years, current work with Kade Bell; changing coaches is not proof of no familiarity. No independent defensive score adjustment.", "confirmed": [ "Mason Heintschel" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "Primary": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "TightenUpON": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Official October 5 coach report confirms Heintschel season-ending ACL injury and Geriner starter. Geriner completed 19/26 for 219 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in three appearances. First full start, third school in five years, current work with Kade Bell; changing coaches is not proof of no familiarity. No independent defensive score adjustment.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5208095", "name": "Mason Heintschel", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/80", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "221", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5208095/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "221", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 276, "passingYards": 2098, "passingTD": 15, "interceptions": 7, "sacks": 30, "completionPct": 63.768001556396484, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.60099983215332, "rushAttempts": 75, "rushingYards": 97, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.2929999828338623, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5208095/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "221", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 148, "passingYards": 1304, "passingTD": 14, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 5, "completionPct": 66.19999694824219, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8.800000190734863, "rushAttempts": 30, "rushingYards": 112, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.700000047683716, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5208095/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "221" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4714300", "name": "Holden Geriner", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/84", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 2, "passingYards": 33, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 16.5, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 6, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4714300/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "326", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 10, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4714300/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "221", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 26, "passingYards": 219, "passingTD": 2, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 73.0999984741211, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8.399999618530273, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 23, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.800000190734863, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4714300/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2", "326" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5207640", "name": "Corey Dailey", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/85", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "221", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5207640/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "221", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5207640/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "221", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 5, "passingYards": 57, "passingTD": 1, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 60, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 11.399999618530273, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5207640/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "221" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [ "Elijah Lagg" ], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Mason Heintschel", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Corey Dailey", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Corey Dailey", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/221/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "https://pittsburghpanthers.com/news/2026/10/5/football-narduzzi-notebook-pitt-looks-ahead-to-north-carolina", "https://pittsburghpanthers.com/sports/football/stats/2026" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [ { "name": "Elijah Lagg", "id": "5296040", "status": "out", "reason": "Seven catches/76 yards versus Carson Kent 12/157; secondary TE by observed volume, but sufficiently involved to retain primary-role-if-confirmed sensitivity. Overlap with QB change is substantial.", "condition": "Only if covered/main-role workload is confirmed; OUT is verified but main-role eligibility is conditional", "incumbentHistoryRef": "player-histories.json#/players/83", "candidateReplacements": [ { "id": "5083135", "name": "Carson Kent", "position": "TE", "workload": "12 REC, 157 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5083135/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/91" } ], "statisticalPointEffect": null, "isolatedHumanDeduction": -3, "jointWithConfirmedDeduction": -3, "overlap": "Shared passing-drive/target uncertainty retained; no automatic extra joint deduction.", "scores": { "Classic": { "isolated": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ] }, "Primary": { "isolated": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ] }, "TightenUpON": { "isolated": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] }, "TightenUpOFF": { "isolated": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] } } } ] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.491666666666667, 34.4625 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 22.083333333333336, 29.791666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 18.7, 28.95 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.5916666666666672, 5.091666666666667 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers", "market": { "id": "401858256", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858256", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.680681+00:00", "home_line": -3.5, "away_line": 3.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -102.0, "under_price": -118.0, "home_ml": -185.0, "away_ml": 154.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -3.5, "average_total": 47.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 10.629545454545458, "combined": 49.961363636363636, "spread_buffer": 7.1295454545454575, "total_difference": 2.461363636363636 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 7.6295454545454575, "combined": 46.961363636363636, "spread_buffer": 4.1295454545454575, "total_difference": -0.538636363636364 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 14.898100050412594, "combined": 50.21368602029581, "spread_buffer": 11.398100050412594, "total_difference": 2.7136860202958104 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 11.898100050412594, "combined": 47.21368602029581, "spread_buffer": 8.398100050412594, "total_difference": -0.2863139797041896 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 17.6625, "combined": 51.262499999999996, "spread_buffer": 14.162500000000001, "total_difference": 3.7624999999999957 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 14.662500000000001, "combined": 48.262499999999996, "spread_buffer": 11.162500000000001, "total_difference": 0.7624999999999957 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401858256", "matchup": "North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "THREE_OR_MORE_MEDIUM_RISKS", "ON_UNRESOLVED_MEDIUM_AVAILABILITY" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "line": -3.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858256", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.680681+00:00", "home_line": -3.5, "away_line": 3.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -102.0, "under_price": -118.0, "home_ml": -185.0, "away_ml": 154.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 14.162500000000001, "production_adjusted": 11.162500000000001, "minimum_all_scenarios": 9.470833333333331, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "directional_buffer": 4.1295454545454575, "scenario_minimum": 4.1295454545454575 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "directional_buffer": 8.398100050412594, "scenario_minimum": 8.398100050412594 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "directional_buffer": 11.162500000000001, "scenario_minimum": 11.162500000000001 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "directional_buffer": 11.162500000000001, "scenario_minimum": 11.162500000000001 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.491666666666667, 31.4625 ], "directional_buffer": 9.470833333333331, "stressed_buffer": 6.470833333333331 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "directional_buffer": 14.162500000000001, "stressed_buffer": 11.162500000000001 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 13.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "directional_buffer": 17.1625, "stressed_buffer": 14.162500000000001 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "directional_buffer": 11.162500000000001, "stressed_buffer": 8.162500000000001 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "directional_buffer": 14.162500000000001, "stressed_buffer": 11.162500000000001 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 15.491666666666667, 31.4625 ], "directional_buffer": 12.470833333333331, "stressed_buffer": 9.470833333333331 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 15.491666666666667, 34.4625 ], "directional_buffer": 15.470833333333331, "stressed_buffer": 12.470833333333331 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.491666666666667, 31.4625 ], "directional_buffer": 9.470833333333331, "stressed_buffer": 6.470833333333331 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.491666666666667, 34.4625 ], "directional_buffer": 12.470833333333331, "stressed_buffer": 9.470833333333331 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.491666666666667, 34.4625 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 22.083333333333336, 29.791666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 18.7, 28.95 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.5916666666666672, 5.091666666666667 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels", "names": [ "Jordan Shipp" ], "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "names": [ "Mason Heintschel" ], "severity": "LOW", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "names": [ "Elijah Lagg" ], "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Jayden Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "isolated_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ] }, { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Joshisa Trader", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "isolated_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 26.833333333333332, 21.5 ], "current_rates": [ 36.6, 23.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 30.166666666666668, 28.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 36.8, 25.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 27.0432350975169 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Jayden Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ] }, { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Joshisa Trader", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 33.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 30.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 22.726666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Jayden Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Joshisa Trader", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.833333333333332, "pa": 21.5, "margin": 5.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401754374", "401754620", "401754531", "401754546", "401754556", "401754563", "401752942", "401754578", "401754589", "401754596", "401754606", "401754610" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.6, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 13.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858204", "401858224", "401858226", "401858243", "401858251" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 30.166666666666668, "pa": 28.833333333333332, "margin": 1.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401754373", "401754524", "401754531", "401754538", "401754548", "401754557", "401754562", "401754574", "401754579", "401754595", "401754598", "401754612" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.8, "pa": 25.6, "margin": 11.199999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401858202", "401858222", "401856695", "401864572", "401858248" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.833333333333332, 25.833333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.1, 29.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.6400000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.0, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 22.726666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Jayden Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Joshisa Trader", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.833333333333332, "pa": 21.5, "margin": 5.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401754374", "401754620", "401754531", "401754546", "401754556", "401754563", "401752942", "401754578", "401754589", "401754596", "401754606", "401754610" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.6, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 13.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858204", "401858224", "401858226", "401858243", "401858251" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 30.166666666666668, "pa": 28.833333333333332, "margin": 1.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401754373", "401754524", "401754531", "401754538", "401754548", "401754557", "401754562", "401754574", "401754579", "401754595", "401754598", "401754612" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.8, "pa": 25.6, "margin": 11.199999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401858202", "401858222", "401856695", "401864572", "401858248" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.833333333333332, 25.833333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.1, 29.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.6400000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.0, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Joshisa Trader" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401858260", "matchup": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "names": [ "Joshisa Trader" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "names": [ "Jayden Scott" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Scott is top rusher at 62 carries/358 yards. Gause already has 46/188. Trader has 16 catches/221 yards and remains QUESTIONABLE. Combined -6 represents distinct rushing and receiving role assumptions; Scott's three catches not counted again. Ploog/Flynt are not the leading receiving option.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.10666666666667, 30.759999999999998 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.833333333333332, 25.833333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 31.1, 29.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.6400000000000002, 0.8599999999999998 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 54, "def_drives": 59, "off_points_proxy": 183, "def_points_proxy": 115, "off_plays": 409, "off_yards": 2692, "def_plays": 488, "def_yards": 2495, "early_plays": 298, "early_yards": 1933, "explosive_plays": 38, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858204", "401858224", "401858226", "401858243", "401858251" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.388888888888889, "def_ppd": 1.9491525423728813, "off_ypp": 6.581907090464548, "def_ypp": 5.112704918032787, "early_down_ypp": 6.4865771812080535 }, "home": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 182, "def_points_proxy": 121, "off_plays": 453, "off_yards": 2588, "def_plays": 390, "def_yards": 2329, "early_plays": 327, "early_yards": 1829, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856695", "401858202", "401858222", "401858248", "401864572" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.9836065573770494, "def_ppd": 1.9836065573770492, "off_ypp": 5.713024282560706, "def_ypp": 5.971794871794872, "early_down_ypp": 5.5932721712538225 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Rain likely, mainly between 1pm and 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 69. East wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tonight Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Low around 66. East wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Joshisa Trader" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858260", "matchup": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "names": [ "Joshisa Trader" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "names": [ "Jayden Scott" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5079301/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5079468/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5079524/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5079745/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5126513/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"current_matchup": [ 31.1, 29.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.6400000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 12.10666666666667, 48.10666666666667 ], "home": [ 10.726666666666667, 46.72666666666667 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401858260", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858260", "teamId": "154", "team": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons", "side": "away", "opponent": "NC State Wolfpack", "conferenceReportKey": "Wake Forest", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4920227", "name": "Gio Lopez", "position": "QB", "workload": "98/151, 1377 YDS, 10 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/4920227/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141634", "name": "Steele Pizzella", "position": "QB", "workload": "3/6, 63 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5141634/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5186586", "name": "Ty Clark III", "position": "RB", "workload": "50 CAR, 258 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5186586/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5382529", "name": "Deuce Lawrence", "position": "RB", "workload": "47 CAR, 235 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5382529/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5216505", "name": "Jamar Searcy", "position": "RB", "workload": "9 CAR, 31 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5216505/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5153074", "name": "Carlos Hernandez", "position": "WR", "workload": "37 REC, 603 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5153074/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5239156", "name": "Jack Foley", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 172 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5239156/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5121666", "name": "Kam Shanks", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 162 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5121666/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5086448", "name": "Kamrean Johnson", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5086448/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5155870", "name": "Will Loerzel", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 40 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5155870/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Elijah Otieno", "id": "5291183", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/154/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858260", "teamId": "152", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "side": "home", "opponent": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons", "conferenceReportKey": "NC State", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5079301", "name": "CJ Bailey", "position": "QB", "workload": "98/150, 1266 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5079301/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5148611", "name": "Will Wilson", "position": "QB", "workload": "8/11, 33 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5148611/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5126513", "name": "Jayden Scott", "position": "RB", "workload": "62 CAR, 358 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5126513/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079468", "name": "Davion Gause", "position": "RB", "workload": "46 CAR, 188 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5079468/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5176079", "name": "Dylan McCoy", "position": "RB", "workload": "4 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5176079/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5079524", "name": "Keenan Jackson", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 339 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5079524/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079745", "name": "Joshisa Trader", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 221 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5079745/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5160003", "name": "Tyran Warren", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5160003/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5215337", "name": "Preston Douglas", "position": "TE", "workload": "19 REC, 241 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5215337/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5172608", "name": "Hunter Provience", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5172608/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Jayden Scott", "id": "5126513", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "62 CAR, 358 YDS, 4 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 21 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Vander Ploog", "id": "5201877", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 25 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Ian Flynt", "id": "5126527", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Joshisa Trader", "id": "5079745", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "2/2, 5 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "16 REC, 221 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Scott is top rusher at 62 carries/358 yards. Gause already has 46/188. Trader has 16 catches/221 yards and remains QUESTIONABLE. Combined -6 represents distinct rushing and receiving role assumptions; Scott's three catches not counted again. Ploog/Flynt are not the leading receiving option.", "confirmed": [ "Jayden Scott" ], "conditional": [ "Joshisa Trader" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Jayden Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "Primary": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "TightenUpON": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ] } }, { "name": "Joshisa Trader", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "Primary": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "TightenUpON": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -6, "overlapTreatment": "Scott is top rusher at 62 carries/358 yards. Gause already has 46/188. Trader has 16 catches/221 yards and remains QUESTIONABLE. Combined -6 represents distinct rushing and receiving role assumptions; Scott's three catches not counted again. Ploog/Flynt are not the leading receiving option.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.568181818181817, 22.43181818181818 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.877911250519595, 27.0432350975169 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.10666666666667, 22.726666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.10666666666667, 22.726666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5126513", "name": "Jayden Scott", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/134", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 4, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.3329999446868896, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5126513/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 87, "rushingYards": 487, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.5980000495910645, "receptions": 15, "receivingYards": 132, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5126513/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 62, "rushingYards": 358, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.800000190734863, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 21, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5126513/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "152" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079745", "name": "Joshisa Trader", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/135", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2390", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 30, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079745/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2390", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 11, "receivingYards": 168, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079745/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 2, "passingYards": 5, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 2.5, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 16, "receivingYards": 221, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079745/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2390" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079468", "name": "Davion Gause", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/138", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "153", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 62, "rushingYards": 314, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.065000057220459, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 45, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079468/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "153", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 61, "rushingYards": 259, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.245999813079834, "receptions": 16, "receivingYards": 132, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079468/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 46, "rushingYards": 188, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.099999904632568, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 117, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079468/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "153" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5176079", "name": "Dylan McCoy", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/763", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "152", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5176079/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "152", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5176079/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 73, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 18.299999237060547, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5176079/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "152" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079524", "name": "Keenan Jackson", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/139", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 105, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079524/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 27, "receivingYards": 258, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079524/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 22, "receivingYards": 339, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079524/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "152" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5215337", "name": "Preston Douglas", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/140", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "152", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5215337/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 2, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5215337/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 19, "receivingYards": 241, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5215337/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "152" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Dylan McCoy", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Dylan McCoy", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Preston Douglas", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Joshisa Trader" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/152/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "https://gopack.com/news/2026/9/12/football-from-the-field-record-setting-rout", "https://gopack.com/sports/football/roster" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Ploog two catches versus Douglas19/Provience5; no primary receiving-TE loss.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.568181818181817, 22.43181818181818 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.877911250519595, 27.0432350975169 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.10666666666667, 22.726666666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.10666666666667, 22.726666666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.10666666666667, 30.759999999999998 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.833333333333332, 25.833333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 31.1, 29.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.6400000000000002, 0.8599999999999998 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack", "market": { "id": "401858260", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858260", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.643559+00:00", "home_line": 3.5, "away_line": -3.5, "home_line_price": -120.0, "away_line_price": 100.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 140.0, "away_ml": -166.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 3.5, "average_total": 57.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.1363636363636367, "combined": 57.0, "spread_buffer": 3.3636363636363633, "total_difference": -0.5 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -3.1363636363636367, "combined": 54.0, "spread_buffer": 0.3636363636363633, "total_difference": -3.5 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 9.165323846997303, "combined": 56.921146348036494, "spread_buffer": 12.665323846997303, "total_difference": -0.5788536519635059 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.165323846997303, "combined": 53.921146348036494, "spread_buffer": 9.665323846997303, "total_difference": -3.578853651963506 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -1.3800000000000026, "combined": 58.833333333333336, "spread_buffer": 2.1199999999999974, "total_difference": 1.3333333333333357 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -4.380000000000003, "combined": 55.833333333333336, "spread_buffer": -0.8800000000000026, "total_difference": -1.6666666666666643 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401858260", "matchup": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "FAVORITE_FAILS_OPPONENT_OFFENSE_CASE", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons", "line": -3.5, "price": 100.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858260", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.643559+00:00", "home_line": 3.5, "away_line": -3.5, "home_line_price": -120.0, "away_line_price": 100.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 140.0, "away_ml": -166.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": -2.1199999999999974, "production_adjusted": 0.8800000000000026, "minimum_all_scenarios": -4.153333333333329, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "directional_buffer": -0.3636363636363633, "scenario_minimum": -3.3636363636363633 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "directional_buffer": -9.665323846997303, "scenario_minimum": -12.665323846997303 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8800000000000026, "scenario_minimum": -2.1199999999999974 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8800000000000026, "scenario_minimum": -2.1199999999999974 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.10666666666667, 30.759999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": -4.153333333333329, "stressed_buffer": -7.153333333333329 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.10666666666667, 22.726666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 3.8800000000000026, "stressed_buffer": 0.8800000000000026 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8800000000000026, "stressed_buffer": -2.1199999999999974 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": -2.1199999999999974, "stressed_buffer": -5.119999999999997 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.10666666666667, 24.759999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": 1.8466666666666711, "stressed_buffer": -1.1533333333333289 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.10666666666667, 27.759999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": -1.1533333333333289, "stressed_buffer": -4.153333333333329 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.10666666666667, 30.759999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": -4.153333333333329, "stressed_buffer": -7.153333333333329 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.10666666666667, 30.759999999999998 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.833333333333332, 25.833333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 31.1, 29.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.6400000000000002, 0.8599999999999998 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": false }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "names": [ "Joshisa Trader" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "names": [ "Jayden Scott" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Rain likely, mainly between 1pm and 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 69. East wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 28, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Joshisa Trader" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401858260", "matchup": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 57.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858260", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.311488+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.643559+00:00", "home_line": 3.5, "away_line": -3.5, "home_line_price": -120.0, "away_line_price": 100.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 140.0, "away_ml": -166.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": -1.3333333333333357, "production_adjusted": 1.6666666666666643, "minimum_all_scenarios": -3.366666666666667, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "directional_buffer": 3.5, "scenario_minimum": 0.5 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "directional_buffer": 3.578853651963506, "scenario_minimum": 0.5788536519635059 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6666666666666643, "scenario_minimum": -1.3333333333333357 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6666666666666643, "scenario_minimum": -1.3333333333333357 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.10666666666667, 30.759999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": -3.366666666666667, "stressed_buffer": -6.366666666666667 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.10666666666667, 22.726666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 4.666666666666664, "stressed_buffer": 1.6666666666666643 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6666666666666643, "stressed_buffer": -1.3333333333333357 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": -1.3333333333333357, "stressed_buffer": -4.333333333333336 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.10666666666667, 24.759999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": 2.633333333333333, "stressed_buffer": -0.36666666666666714 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.10666666666667, 27.759999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": -0.36666666666666714, "stressed_buffer": -3.366666666666667 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.10666666666667, 30.759999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": -3.366666666666667, "stressed_buffer": -6.366666666666667 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.10666666666667, 30.759999999999998 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.833333333333332, 25.833333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 31.1, 29.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.6400000000000002, 0.8599999999999998 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "names": [ "Joshisa Trader" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "names": [ "Jayden Scott" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Rain likely, mainly between 1pm and 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 69. East wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. 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Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.833333333333332, 25.833333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 31.1, 29.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.6400000000000002, 0.8599999999999998 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "names": [ "Joshisa Trader" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "names": [ "Jayden Scott" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Rain likely, mainly between 1pm and 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 69. 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New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 28, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Joshisa Trader" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401858481", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401858481", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3834", "fullName": "Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Lincoln", "state": "NE", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "84", "away_name": "Indiana Hoosiers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "158", "home_name": "Nebraska Cornhuskers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.92307692307692, "pa": 10.846153846153847, "margin": 31.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401752812", "401752836", "401752843", "401752853", "401752870", "401752878", "401752885", "401752887", "401752893", "401752901", "401752924", "401777353" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.2, "pa": 10.8, "margin": 33.400000000000006, "event_ids": [ "401858425", "401858439", "401858449", "401858461", "401858477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.25, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 6.25, "event_ids": [ "401752796", "401752810", "401752828", "401752846", "401752860", "401752867", "401752872", "401752883", "401752892", "401752895", "401752908", "401752916" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 43.6, "pa": 14.2, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858430", "401858441", "401858452", "401858464", "401858475" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.46153846153846, 20.048076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 29.200000000000003, 27.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.8826923076923068, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 22.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 22.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.92307692307692, "pa": 10.846153846153847, "margin": 31.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401752812", "401752836", "401752843", "401752853", "401752870", "401752878", "401752885", "401752887", "401752893", "401752901", "401752924", "401777353" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.2, "pa": 10.8, "margin": 33.400000000000006, "event_ids": [ "401858425", "401858439", "401858449", "401858461", "401858477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.25, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 6.25, "event_ids": [ "401752796", "401752810", "401752828", "401752846", "401752860", "401752867", "401752872", "401752883", "401752892", "401752895", "401752908", "401752916" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 43.6, "pa": 14.2, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858430", "401858441", "401858452", "401858464", "401858475" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.46153846153846, 20.048076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 29.200000000000003, 27.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.8826923076923068, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 22.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 22.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401858481", "matchup": "Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Indiana Hoosiers: current report contains 3 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Nebraska Cornhuskers: current report contains 2 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.71346153846154, 25.817307692307697 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 32.46153846153846, 20.048076923076923 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.200000000000003, 27.200000000000003 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.882692307692307, -1.3826923076923072 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 53, "def_drives": 55, "off_points_proxy": 214, "def_points_proxy": 56, "off_plays": 402, "off_yards": 2983, "def_plays": 404, "def_yards": 1667, "early_plays": 285, "early_yards": 2221, "explosive_plays": 49, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858425", "401858439", "401858449", "401858461", "401858477" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 4.037735849056604, "def_ppd": 1.018181818181818, "off_ypp": 7.420398009950249, "def_ypp": 4.126237623762377, "early_down_ypp": 7.792982456140351 }, "home": { "off_drives": 56, "def_drives": 60, "off_points_proxy": 205, "def_points_proxy": 70, "off_plays": 426, "off_yards": 2825, "def_plays": 396, "def_yards": 2166, "early_plays": 319, "early_yards": 2125, "explosive_plays": 39, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858430", "401858441", "401858452", "401858464", "401858475" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.6607142857142856, "def_ppd": 1.1666666666666667, "off_ypp": 6.631455399061033, "def_ypp": 5.46969696969697, "early_down_ypp": 6.661442006269592 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 91. Breezy, with a south wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 68. South wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lincoln&state=NE&site=OAX&textField1=40.8164&textField2=-96.6882&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858481", "matchup": "Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5044387/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5078312/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5081107/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5083370/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5110168/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/4685516/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/4695867/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5079600/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5091725/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5142604/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5146724/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5146735/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5214648/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5216524/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lincoln&state=NE&site=OAX&textField1=40.8164&textField2=-96.6882&e=0", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/158/roster?season=2026", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/84/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview" ], "tu": { "id": "401858481", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401858481", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3834", "fullName": "Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Lincoln", "state": "NE", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "84", "away_name": "Indiana Hoosiers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "158", "home_name": "Nebraska Cornhuskers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.92307692307692, "pa": 10.846153846153847, "margin": 31.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401752812", "401752836", "401752843", "401752853", "401752870", "401752878", "401752885", "401752887", "401752893", "401752901", "401752924", "401777353" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.2, "pa": 10.8, "margin": 33.400000000000006, "event_ids": [ "401858425", "401858439", "401858449", "401858461", "401858477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.25, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 6.25, "event_ids": [ "401752796", "401752810", "401752828", "401752846", "401752860", "401752867", "401752872", "401752883", "401752892", "401752895", "401752908", "401752916" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 43.6, "pa": 14.2, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858430", "401858441", "401858452", "401858464", "401858475" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.46153846153846, 20.048076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 29.200000000000003, 27.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.8826923076923068, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 15.713461538461537, 51.71346153846154 ], "home": [ 4.241346153846155, 40.24134615384615 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401858481", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858481", "teamId": "84", "team": "Indiana Hoosiers", "side": "away", "opponent": "Nebraska Cornhuskers", "conferenceReportKey": "Indiana", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4685401", "name": "Josh Hoover", "position": "QB", "workload": "76/107, 1101 YDS, 15 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/4685401/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4695867", "name": "Grant Wilson", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/5, 74 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/4695867/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5146724", "name": "Turbo Richard", "position": "RB", "workload": "63 CAR, 587 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5146724/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5091725", "name": "Lee Beebe Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "89 CAR, 520 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5091725/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5214648", "name": "Jayreon Campbell", "position": "RB", "workload": "8 CAR, 50 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5214648/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5146735", "name": "Charlie Becker", "position": "WR", "workload": "27 REC, 477 YDS, 8 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5146735/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079600", "name": "Nick Marsh", "position": "WR", "workload": "23 REC, 341 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5079600/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685516", "name": "Shazz Preston", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/4685516/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5142604", "name": "Brock Schott", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 25 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5142604/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5216524", "name": "Andrew Barker", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 6 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5216524/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Lebron Bond", "id": "5209424", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Khobie Martin", "id": "5142140", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Andrew Barker", "id": "5216524", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 6 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Indiana Hoosiers: current report contains 3 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/84/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Barker one catch/six yards trails Schott one/25 and all three principal WRs 27/23/9 catches; no primary receiving role demonstrated.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858481", "teamId": "158", "team": "Nebraska Cornhuskers", "side": "home", "opponent": "Indiana Hoosiers", "conferenceReportKey": "Nebraska", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5044387", "name": "Anthony Colandrea", "position": "QB", "workload": "94/143, 1142 YDS, 13 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5044387/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141556", "name": "TJ Lateef", "position": "QB", "workload": "8/11, 82 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5141556/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5290565", "name": "Jamal Rule", "position": "RB", "workload": "42 CAR, 333 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5290565/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5227018", "name": "Mekhi Nelson", "position": "RB", "workload": "56 CAR, 266 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5227018/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141607", "name": "Isaiah Mozee", "position": "RB", "workload": "39 CAR, 195 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5141607/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5127885", "name": "Kwazi Gilmer", "position": "WR", "workload": "29 REC, 387 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5127885/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5083370", "name": "Jacory Barney Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 233 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5083370/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5078312", "name": "Nyziah Hunter", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 74 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5078312/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5081107", "name": "Luke Lindenmeyer", "position": "TE", "workload": "12 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5081107/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5110168", "name": "Carter Nelson", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 6 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5110168/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Larry Miles", "id": "5272709", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, -1 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Carter Nelson", "id": "5110168", "position": "TE", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 6 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Nebraska Cornhuskers: current report contains 2 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/158/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Miles and Nelson each one catch; Lindenmeyer has12 and top WRs29/18/8. They are not documented main receiving losses.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.71346153846154, 25.817307692307697 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 32.46153846153846, 20.048076923076923 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.200000000000003, 27.200000000000003 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.882692307692307, -1.3826923076923072 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskers", "market": { "id": "401858481", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858481", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.312995+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.619872+00:00", "home_line": 8.5, "away_line": -8.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 270.0, "away_ml": -340.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 8.5, "average_total": 48.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -6.18006993006993, "combined": 54.27797202797203, "spread_buffer": 2.31993006993007, "total_difference": 5.777972027972027 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -6.18006993006993, "combined": 54.27797202797203, "spread_buffer": 2.31993006993007, "total_difference": 5.777972027972027 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -4.51376359092442, "combined": 54.47720300556417, "spread_buffer": 3.9862364090755804, "total_difference": 5.977203005564171 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -4.51376359092442, "combined": 54.47720300556417, "spread_buffer": 3.9862364090755804, "total_difference": 5.977203005564171 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -11.472115384615382, "combined": 55.954807692307696, "spread_buffer": -2.972115384615382, "total_difference": 7.454807692307696 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -11.472115384615382, "combined": 55.954807692307696, "spread_buffer": -2.972115384615382, "total_difference": 7.454807692307696 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401858481", "matchup": "Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Indiana Hoosiers", "line": -8.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858481", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.312995+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.619872+00:00", "home_line": 8.5, "away_line": -8.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 270.0, "away_ml": -340.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 2.972115384615382, "production_adjusted": 2.972115384615382, "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.6038461538461597, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "directional_buffer": -2.31993006993007, "scenario_minimum": -2.31993006993007 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "directional_buffer": -3.9862364090755804, "scenario_minimum": -3.9862364090755804 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "directional_buffer": 2.972115384615382, "scenario_minimum": 2.972115384615382 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "directional_buffer": 2.972115384615382, "scenario_minimum": 2.972115384615382 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.71346153846154, 25.817307692307697 ], "directional_buffer": -0.6038461538461597, "stressed_buffer": -3.6038461538461597 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "directional_buffer": 2.972115384615382, "stressed_buffer": -0.027884615384618172 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.71346153846154, 25.817307692307697 ], "directional_buffer": -0.6038461538461597, "stressed_buffer": -3.6038461538461597 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.71346153846154, 25.817307692307697 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 32.46153846153846, 20.048076923076923 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.200000000000003, 27.200000000000003 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.882692307692307, -1.3826923076923072 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lincoln&state=NE&site=OAX&textField1=40.8164&textField2=-96.6882&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lincoln&state=NE&site=OAX&textField1=40.8164&textField2=-96.6882&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T11:00:00-05:00", "window": "Sunny, with a high near 91. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 29.076923076923077, "pa": 22.615384615384617, "margin": 6.46153846153846, "event_ids": [ "401752803", "401761601", "401754534", "401752711", "401762474", "401762480", "401762488", "401762443", "401762501", "401762509", "401762515", "401762518", "401777324" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 18.75, "pa": 23.25, "margin": -4.5, "event_ids": [ "401858209", "401864575", "401856792", "401862784" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.416666666666668, "pa": 22.083333333333332, "margin": 0.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401762432", "401756882", "401762469", "401762471", "401762476", "401762483", "401762488", "401760401", "401762503", "401762512", "401762441", "401762521" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33.25, "pa": 19.75, "margin": 13.5, "event_ids": [ "401862701", "401862702", "401862779", "401869842" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.580128205128204, 22.516025641025642 ], "current_matchup": [ 19.25, 28.25 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.1871794871794876, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.0, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Tulane Green Wave", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Army Black Knights", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401862795", "matchup": "Tulane Green Wave at Army Black Knights", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Tulane Green Wave", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Army Black Knights", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Tulane Green Wave: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Army Black Knights: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.392948717948716, 28.07019230769231 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.580128205128204, 22.516025641025642 ], "currentMatchup": [ 19.25, 28.25 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.1871794871794876, 2.6871794871794874 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 46, "def_drives": 47, "off_points_proxy": 75, "def_points_proxy": 93, "off_plays": 313, "off_yards": 1849, "def_plays": 349, "def_yards": 2008, "early_plays": 214, "early_yards": 1138, "explosive_plays": 28, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856792", "401858209", "401862784", "401864575" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 1.6304347826086956, "def_ppd": 1.9787234042553192, "off_ypp": 5.907348242811501, "def_ypp": 5.7535816618911175, "early_down_ypp": 5.317757009345795 }, "home": { "off_drives": 39, "def_drives": 39, "off_points_proxy": 132, "def_points_proxy": 79, "off_plays": 328, "off_yards": 1930, "def_plays": 282, "def_yards": 2047, "early_plays": 251, "early_yards": 1460, "explosive_plays": 27, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862701", "401862702", "401862779", "401869842" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 3.3846153846153846, "def_ppd": 2.0256410256410255, "off_ypp": 5.884146341463414, "def_ypp": 7.25886524822695, "early_down_ypp": 5.816733067729084 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Light and variable wind. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Calm wind. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=West+Point&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=41.3623&textField2=-74.0273&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Tulane Green Wave", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Army Black Knights", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401862795", "matchup": "Tulane Green Wave at Army Black Knights", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Tulane Green Wave", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Army Black Knights", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4432774/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4837391/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4870518/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4870635/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4871148/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 3.227884615384614, 39.22788461538461 ], "home": [ 10.07019230769231, 46.07019230769231 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401862795", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401862795", "teamId": "2655", "team": "Tulane Green Wave", "side": "away", "opponent": "Army Black Knights", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5091890", "name": "Kadin Semonza", "position": "QB", "workload": "50/93, 646 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/5091890/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870518", "name": "Zeon Chriss-Gremillion", "position": "QB", "workload": "6/9, 64 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4870518/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4837391", "name": "Maurice Turner", "position": "RB", "workload": "26 CAR, 277 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4837391/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4871148", "name": "Jaylin Lucas", "position": "RB", "workload": "27 CAR, 238 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4871148/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5218820", "name": "Johnnie Daniels", "position": "RB", "workload": "43 CAR, 168 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/5218820/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5150834", "name": "Destyn Hill", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 169 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/5150834/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870635", "name": "Anthony Brown-Stephens", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 144 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4870635/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079686", "name": "Bredell Richardson", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 85 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/5079686/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5222239", "name": "Dawson Johnson", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 44 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/5222239/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4432774", "name": "Ty Thompson", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 8 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4432774/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Tulane Green Wave: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2655/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401862795", "teamId": "349", "team": "Army Black Knights", "side": "home", "opponent": "Tulane Green Wave", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5150297", "name": "Cale Hellums", "position": "QB", "workload": "28/49, 337 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150297/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5219408", "name": "Ethan Washington", "position": "QB", "workload": "2/2, 13 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5219408/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5293685", "name": "Godspower Nwawuihe", "position": "RB", "workload": "37 CAR, 164 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5293685/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5150326", "name": "Carson Smith", "position": "RB", "workload": "21 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150326/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5150329", "name": "Jake Rendina", "position": "RB", "workload": "18 CAR, 72 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150329/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5082118", "name": "Zach Mundell", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5082118/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5150316", "name": "Samari Howard", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 73 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150316/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5150373", "name": "Tobi Olawole", "position": "WR", "workload": "1 REC, 37 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150373/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5150333", "name": "Parker Poloskey", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 28 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150333/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5219468", "name": "Tex Brannan", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 6 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5219468/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Army Black Knights: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/349/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.392948717948716, 28.07019230769231 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.580128205128204, 22.516025641025642 ], "currentMatchup": [ 19.25, 28.25 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.1871794871794876, 2.6871794871794874 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Tulane Green Wave at Army Black Knights", "market": { "id": "401862795", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862795", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.623394+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.919157+00:00", "home_line": -3.5, "away_line": 3.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -166.0, "away_ml": 140.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -3.5, "average_total": 48.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 3.261538461538464, "combined": 47.857692307692304, "spread_buffer": -0.23846153846153584, "total_difference": -0.6423076923076962 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 3.261538461538464, "combined": 47.857692307692304, "spread_buffer": -0.23846153846153584, "total_difference": -0.6423076923076962 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 10.768809397292397, "combined": 44.44948248957863, "spread_buffer": 7.268809397292397, "total_difference": -4.050517510421372 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 10.768809397292397, "combined": 44.44948248957863, "spread_buffer": 7.268809397292397, "total_difference": -4.050517510421372 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 6.8423076923076955, "combined": 49.29807692307692, "spread_buffer": 3.3423076923076955, "total_difference": 0.7980769230769198 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.8423076923076955, "combined": 49.29807692307692, "spread_buffer": 3.3423076923076955, "total_difference": 0.7980769230769198 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401862795", "matchup": "Tulane Green Wave at Army Black Knights", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Army Black Knights", "line": -3.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862795", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.623394+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.919157+00:00", "home_line": -3.5, "away_line": 3.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -166.0, "away_ml": 140.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 3.3423076923076955, "production_adjusted": 3.3423076923076955, "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.17724358974359333, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "directional_buffer": -0.23846153846153584, "scenario_minimum": -0.23846153846153584 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "directional_buffer": 7.268809397292397, "scenario_minimum": 7.268809397292397 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 3.3423076923076955, "scenario_minimum": 3.3423076923076955 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 3.3423076923076955, "scenario_minimum": 3.3423076923076955 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 24.392948717948716, 28.07019230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 0.17724358974359333, "stressed_buffer": -2.8227564102564067 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 3.3423076923076955, "stressed_buffer": 0.34230769230769553 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 24.392948717948716, 28.07019230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 0.17724358974359333, "stressed_buffer": -2.8227564102564067 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.392948717948716, 28.07019230769231 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.580128205128204, 22.516025641025642 ], "currentMatchup": [ 19.25, 28.25 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.1871794871794876, 2.6871794871794874 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Tulane Green Wave", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Army Black Knights", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=West+Point&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=41.3623&textField2=-74.0273&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 63. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 27.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.5, 27.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.75, "pa": 26.25, "margin": 7.5, "event_ids": [ "401767130", "401760365", "401767131", "401767132", "401767073", "401767133", "401767123", "401767101", "401767066", "401767129", "401767096", "401767134" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 28.6, "margin": -11.0, "event_ids": [ "401866408", "401866411", "401860883", "401864507", "401866429" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 24.25, "margin": -3.75, "event_ids": [ "401762790", "401756880", "401757256", "401754642", "401762825", "401762835", "401762839", "401762846", "401762849", "401762855", "401762862", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 11.4, "pa": 33.0, "margin": -21.6, "event_ids": [ "401866410", "401858441", "401856798", "401862785", "401866477" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.0, 23.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.3, 20.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.185, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 21.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 21.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.75, "pa": 26.25, "margin": 7.5, "event_ids": [ "401767130", "401760365", "401767131", "401767132", "401767073", "401767133", "401767123", "401767101", "401767066", "401767129", "401767096", "401767134" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 28.6, "margin": -11.0, "event_ids": [ "401866408", "401866411", "401860883", "401864507", "401866429" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 24.25, "margin": -3.75, "event_ids": [ "401762790", "401756880", "401757256", "401754642", "401762825", "401762835", "401762839", "401762846", "401762849", "401762855", "401762862", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 11.4, "pa": 33.0, "margin": -21.6, "event_ids": [ "401866410", "401858441", "401856798", "401862785", "401866477" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.0, 23.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.3, 20.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.185, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 21.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 21.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Sacramento State Hornets", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Bowling Green Falcons", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401866436", "matchup": "Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green Falcons", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Sacramento State Hornets", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Bowling Green Falcons", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Sacramento State Hornets: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Bowling Green Falcons: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 29.334999999999997, 22.69 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.0, 23.375 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.3, 20.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.185, -0.685 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 84, "def_points_proxy": 128, "off_plays": 433, "off_yards": 2099, "def_plays": 386, "def_yards": 2127, "early_plays": 306, "early_yards": 1548, "explosive_plays": 26, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401860883", "401864507", "401866408", "401866411", "401866429" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.3770491803278688, "def_ppd": 2.098360655737705, "off_ypp": 4.84757505773672, "def_ypp": 5.510362694300518, "early_down_ypp": 5.0588235294117645 }, "home": { "off_drives": 54, "def_drives": 53, "off_points_proxy": 57, "def_points_proxy": 150, "off_plays": 382, "off_yards": 1952, "def_plays": 362, "def_yards": 2720, "early_plays": 260, "early_yards": 1223, "explosive_plays": 24, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856798", "401858441", "401862785", "401866410", "401866477" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.0555555555555556, "def_ppd": 2.830188679245283, "off_ypp": 5.109947643979058, "def_ypp": 7.513812154696133, "early_down_ypp": 4.703846153846154 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Southeast wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Tonight A chance of rain, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Low around 58. Southeast wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bowling+Green&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.3764&textField2=-83.6495&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Sacramento State Hornets", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Bowling Green Falcons", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866436", "matchup": "Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green Falcons", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Sacramento State Hornets", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Bowling Green Falcons", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/4912040/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/4920192/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5082587/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5084459/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5152796/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5158748/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5158759/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5161820/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5225846/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5310132/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/4912647/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5121607/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5147347/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5193284/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5193300/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5207804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5219017/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5226453/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5231360/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5385753/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bowling+Green&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.3764&textField2=-83.6495&e=0", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/16/roster?season=2026", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/189/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview" ], "tu": { "id": "401866436", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401866436", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3700", "fullName": "Doyt L. Perry Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Bowling Green", "state": "OH", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "16", "away_name": "Sacramento State Hornets", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "189", "home_name": "Bowling Green Falcons", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.75, "pa": 26.25, "margin": 7.5, "event_ids": [ "401767130", "401760365", "401767131", "401767132", "401767073", "401767133", "401767123", "401767101", "401767066", "401767129", "401767096", "401767134" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 28.6, "margin": -11.0, "event_ids": [ "401866408", "401866411", "401860883", "401864507", "401866429" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 24.25, "margin": -3.75, "event_ids": [ "401762790", "401756880", "401757256", "401754642", "401762825", "401762835", "401762839", "401762846", "401762849", "401762855", "401762862", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 11.4, "pa": 33.0, "margin": -21.6, "event_ids": [ "401866410", "401858441", "401856798", "401862785", "401866477" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.0, 23.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.3, 20.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.185, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 11.334999999999997, 47.334999999999994 ], "home": [ 3.0025000000000013, 39.0025 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401866436", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401866436", "teamId": "16", "team": "Sacramento State Hornets", "side": "away", "opponent": "Bowling Green Falcons", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5158748", "name": "Jackson Sharman", "position": "QB", "workload": "82/142, 856 YDS, 5 TD, 5 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5158748/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4920192", "name": "Carson Conklin", "position": "QB", "workload": "25/46, 222 YDS, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/4920192/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5161820", "name": "Isaiah Ene", "position": "RB", "workload": "29 CAR, 141 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5161820/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5310132", "name": "Daniel Swinney", "position": "RB", "workload": "28 CAR, 139 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5310132/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5084459", "name": "Cincere Rhaney", "position": "RB", "workload": "30 CAR, 120 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5084459/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5082587", "name": "Matt Coleman", "position": "WR", "workload": "26 REC, 369 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5082587/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5152796", "name": "Onterrio Smith Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 240 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5152796/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5158759", "name": "Raiden Brown", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 149 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5158759/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4912040", "name": "Jordan Williams", "position": "TE", "workload": "15 REC, 122 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/4912040/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5225846", "name": "Kyle Koontz", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 25 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5225846/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Sacramento State Hornets: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/16/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401866436", "teamId": "189", "team": "Bowling Green Falcons", "side": "home", "opponent": "Sacramento State Hornets", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5385753", "name": "Jay Kastantin", "position": "QB", "workload": "83/128, 870 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5385753/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4912647", "name": "Austin Novosad", "position": "QB", "workload": "1/5, -1 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/4912647/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5147347", "name": "Austyn Dendy", "position": "RB", "workload": "62 CAR, 185 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5147347/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5219017", "name": "Nakai Amachree", "position": "RB", "workload": "33 CAR, 113 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5219017/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5121607", "name": "Ke'Marion Baldwin", "position": "RB", "workload": "12 CAR, 50 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5121607/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5193284", "name": "Winn Sharp", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 217 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5193284/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5226453", "name": "Brennan Ridley", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 167 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5226453/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5231360", "name": "Nick Sowell", "position": "WR", "workload": "1 REC, 15 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5231360/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5207804", "name": "Jeremiah Scoby", "position": "TE", "workload": "18 REC, 182 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5207804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5193300", "name": "Eli Jacon-Duffy", "position": "TE", "workload": "14 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5193300/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Bowling Green Falcons: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/189/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 29.334999999999997, 22.69 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.0, 23.375 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.3, 20.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.185, -0.685 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green Falcons", "market": { "id": "401866436", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866436", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.646728+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.878366+00:00", "home_line": -8.5, "away_line": 8.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 43.5, "under_line": 43.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -325.0, "away_ml": 260.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -8.5, "average_total": 43.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -3.9772727272727266, "combined": 49.15909090909091, "spread_buffer": -12.477272727272727, "total_difference": 5.6590909090909065 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -3.9772727272727266, "combined": 49.15909090909091, "spread_buffer": -12.477272727272727, "total_difference": 5.6590909090909065 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 6.881364777430797, "combined": 48.072886059233554, "spread_buffer": -1.6186352225692033, "total_difference": 4.572886059233554 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.881364777430797, "combined": 48.072886059233554, "spread_buffer": -1.6186352225692033, "total_difference": 4.572886059233554 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -8.332499999999996, "combined": 50.3375, "spread_buffer": -16.832499999999996, "total_difference": 6.837499999999999 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -8.332499999999996, "combined": 50.3375, "spread_buffer": -16.832499999999996, "total_difference": 6.837499999999999 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401866436", "matchup": "Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green Falcons", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Sacramento State Hornets", "line": 8.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866436", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.646728+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.878366+00:00", "home_line": -8.5, "away_line": 8.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 43.5, "under_line": 43.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -325.0, "away_ml": 260.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 16.832499999999996, "production_adjusted": 16.832499999999996, "minimum_all_scenarios": 15.144999999999996, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "directional_buffer": 12.477272727272727, "scenario_minimum": 12.477272727272727 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6186352225692033, "scenario_minimum": 1.6186352225692033 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "directional_buffer": 16.832499999999996, "scenario_minimum": 16.832499999999996 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "directional_buffer": 16.832499999999996, "scenario_minimum": 16.832499999999996 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.334999999999997, 22.69 ], "directional_buffer": 15.144999999999996, "stressed_buffer": 12.144999999999996 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "directional_buffer": 16.832499999999996, "stressed_buffer": 13.832499999999996 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.334999999999997, 22.69 ], "directional_buffer": 15.144999999999996, "stressed_buffer": 12.144999999999996 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 29.334999999999997, 22.69 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 27.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 27.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 24.846153846153847, "pa": 22.846153846153847, "margin": 2.0, "event_ids": [ "401767265", "401767266", "401762818", "401767267", "401767268", "401767269", "401767270", "401767144", "401767271", "401767262", "401767138", "401767195", "401836116" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": -15.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401866616", "401858208", "401866631", "401866639", "401866642", "401866650" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 43.583333333333336, "margin": -23.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767223", "401756886", "401767181", "401767272", "401767191", "401767273", "401767274", "401767145", "401767275", "401767316", "401767263", "401767178" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 17.5, "pa": 32.833333333333336, "margin": -15.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401866618", "401866623", "401866633", "401866636", "401866644", "401866653" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.21474358974359, 21.673076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 25.666666666666668 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.4750000000000005, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 24.846153846153847, "pa": 22.846153846153847, "margin": 2.0, "event_ids": [ "401767265", "401767266", "401762818", "401767267", "401767268", "401767269", "401767270", "401767144", "401767271", "401767262", "401767138", "401767195", "401836116" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": -15.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401866616", "401858208", "401866631", "401866639", "401866642", "401866650" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 43.583333333333336, "margin": -23.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767223", "401756886", "401767181", "401767272", "401767191", "401767273", "401767274", "401767145", "401767275", "401767316", "401767263", "401767178" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 17.5, "pa": 32.833333333333336, "margin": -15.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401866618", "401866623", "401866633", "401866636", "401866644", "401866653" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.21474358974359, 21.673076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 25.666666666666668 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.4750000000000005, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401866658", "matchup": "New Hampshire Wildcats at North Carolina A&T Aggies", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "North Carolina A&T Aggies: QB Kevin White, RB J.T. Smith/Shimique Blizzard/RJ Baker, WR Michael Carlock-Williams/Elijah Kennedy/Jayvonne Dillard, TE Anthony Rucker; New Hampshire Wildcats: QB Brooks Bentley/Barry Kleinpeter, RB Joquez Smith/Myles Thomason, WR Ja'Carree Kelly/Logan Perez/Josh Fillion, TE Colby Ramshaw/Drew Danson", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.3323717948718, 24.691666666666666 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 34.21474358974359, 21.673076923076923 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.5, 25.666666666666668 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.4750000000000005, -0.9750000000000005 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 71, "def_drives": 76, "off_points_proxy": 97, "def_points_proxy": 196, "off_plays": 467, "off_yards": 2591, "def_plays": 534, "def_yards": 3270, "early_plays": 318, "early_yards": 1839, "explosive_plays": 41, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858208", "401866616", "401866631", "401866639", "401866642", "401866650" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.3661971830985915, "def_ppd": 2.5789473684210527, "off_ypp": 5.548179871520342, "def_ypp": 6.123595505617978, "early_down_ypp": 5.783018867924528 }, "home": { "off_drives": 68, "def_drives": 67, "off_points_proxy": 98, "def_points_proxy": 197, "off_plays": 493, "off_yards": 2703, "def_plays": 471, "def_yards": 3197, "early_plays": 343, "early_yards": 1603, "explosive_plays": 42, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866618", "401866623", "401866633", "401866636", "401866644", "401866653" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.4411764705882353, "def_ppd": 2.9402985074626864, "off_ypp": 5.482758620689655, "def_ypp": 6.7876857749469215, "early_down_ypp": 4.673469387755102 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2448", "teamName": "North Carolina A&T Aggies", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866653", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "North Carolina A&T Aggies at Bryant Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Beirne Stadium", "address": { "city": "Smithfield", "state": "RI", "zipCode": "02917", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2803", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2803", "displayName": "Bryant Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2448", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2448", "displayName": "North Carolina A&T Aggies" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ncataggies.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "160", "teamName": "New Hampshire Wildcats", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866650", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Elon Phoenix at New Hampshire Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Wildcat Stadium (NH)", "address": { "city": "Durham", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03824", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "160", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "160", "displayName": "New Hampshire Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2210", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 23.0, "displayValue": "23" }, "team": { "id": "2210", "displayName": "Elon Phoenix" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://unhwildcats.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Greensboro. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:12.978247+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Rain, mainly before 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 64. Northeast wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tonight Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Low around 63. East wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866658", "matchup": "New Hampshire Wildcats at North Carolina A&T Aggies", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0", "https://ncataggies.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://unhwildcats.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401866658", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401866658", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3603", "fullName": "Truist Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Greensboro", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "160", "away_name": "New Hampshire Wildcats", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2448", "home_name": "North Carolina A&T Aggies", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 24.846153846153847, "pa": 22.846153846153847, "margin": 2.0, "event_ids": [ "401767265", "401767266", "401762818", "401767267", "401767268", "401767269", "401767270", "401767144", "401767271", "401767262", "401767138", "401767195", "401836116" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": -15.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401866616", "401858208", "401866631", "401866639", "401866642", "401866650" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 43.583333333333336, "margin": -23.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767223", "401756886", "401767181", "401767272", "401767191", "401767273", "401767274", "401767145", "401767275", "401767316", "401767263", "401767178" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 17.5, "pa": 32.833333333333336, "margin": -15.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401866618", "401866623", "401866633", "401866636", "401866644", "401866653" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.21474358974359, 21.673076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 25.666666666666668 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.4750000000000005, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 12.332371794871797, 52.3323717948718 ], "home": [ 2.694871794871794, 42.694871794871794 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401866658", "matchup": "New Hampshire Wildcats at North Carolina A&T Aggies", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3603", "guid": "b2a18dc8-d212-31e9-bfc2-5579d4a00212", "fullName": "Truist Stadium", "address": { "city": "Greensboro", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "30339", "country": "USA" }, "grass": true, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2448", "teamName": "North Carolina A&T Aggies", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866653", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "North Carolina A&T Aggies at Bryant Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Beirne Stadium", "address": { "city": "Smithfield", "state": "RI", "zipCode": "02917", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2803", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2803", "displayName": "Bryant Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2448", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2448", "displayName": "North Carolina A&T Aggies" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ncataggies.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "160", "teamName": "New Hampshire Wildcats", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866650", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Elon Phoenix at New Hampshire Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Wildcat Stadium (NH)", "address": { "city": "Durham", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03824", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "160", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "160", "displayName": "New Hampshire Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2210", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 23.0, "displayValue": "23" }, "team": { "id": "2210", "displayName": "Elon Phoenix" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://unhwildcats.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Greensboro. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2448", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#160" ], "finding": "North Carolina A&T Aggies: QB Kevin White, RB J.T. Smith/Shimique Blizzard/RJ Baker, WR Michael Carlock-Williams/Elijah Kennedy/Jayvonne Dillard, TE Anthony Rucker; New Hampshire Wildcats: QB Brooks Bentley/Barry Kleinpeter, RB Joquez Smith/Myles Thomason, WR Ja'Carree Kelly/Logan Perez/Josh Fillion, TE Colby Ramshaw/Drew Danson" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2448", "teamName": "North Carolina A&T Aggies", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866653", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "North Carolina A&T Aggies at Bryant Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Beirne Stadium", "address": { "city": "Smithfield", "state": "RI", "zipCode": "02917", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2803", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2803", "displayName": "Bryant Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2448", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2448", "displayName": "North Carolina A&T Aggies" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ncataggies.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "160", "teamName": "New Hampshire Wildcats", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866650", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Elon Phoenix at New Hampshire Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Wildcat Stadium (NH)", "address": { "city": "Durham", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03824", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "160", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "160", "displayName": "New Hampshire Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2210", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 23.0, "displayValue": "23" }, "team": { "id": "2210", "displayName": "Elon Phoenix" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://unhwildcats.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Greensboro. 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Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 34.21474358974359, 21.673076923076923 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.5, 25.666666666666668 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.4750000000000005, -0.9750000000000005 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Rain, mainly before 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 64. Northeast wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 29, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401866658", "matchup": "New Hampshire Wildcats at North Carolina A&T Aggies", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 47.5, "price": -113.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866658", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.647731+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.915140+00:00", "home_line": 5.5, "away_line": -5.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -113.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 174.0, "away_ml": -221.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 7.527243589743591, "production_adjusted": 7.527243589743591, "minimum_all_scenarios": 7.527243589743591, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.107371794871796, 24.419871794871796 ], "directional_buffer": 6.027243589743591, "scenario_minimum": 6.027243589743591 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.706848226759874, 27.04832741242569 ], "directional_buffer": 6.255175639185566, "scenario_minimum": 6.255175639185566 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "directional_buffer": 7.527243589743591, "scenario_minimum": 7.527243589743591 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "directional_buffer": 7.527243589743591, "scenario_minimum": 7.527243589743591 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "directional_buffer": 7.527243589743591, "stressed_buffer": 4.527243589743591 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "directional_buffer": 7.527243589743591, "stressed_buffer": 4.527243589743591 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.3323717948718, 24.69166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 9.524038461538467, "stressed_buffer": 6.524038461538467 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.3323717948718, 24.691666666666666 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 34.21474358974359, 21.673076923076923 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.5, 25.666666666666668 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.4750000000000005, -0.9750000000000005 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Rain, mainly before 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 64. Northeast wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 29, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401866660", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401866660", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3668", "fullName": "Campus Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Fairfield", "state": "CT", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "284", "away_name": "Stonehill Skyhawks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2529", "home_name": "Sacred Heart Pioneers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.795454545454547, 25.704545454545453 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.795454545454547, 25.704545454545453 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.795454545454547, 25.704545454545453 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 15.083333333333334, 23.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 16.6, 28.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.583333333333332, 26.25 ], "current_rates": [ 19.8, 24.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 20.0, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 15.879576355922412, 29.671756895765892 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.879576355922412, 29.671756895765892 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.879576355922412, 29.671756895765892 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 16.0, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.0, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.083333333333334, "pa": 23.083333333333332, "margin": -7.999999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767657", "401767771", "401767190", "401767772", "401767758", "401767751", "401767773", "401767774", "401767765", "401767747", "401767775", "401767770" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.6, "pa": 28.0, "margin": -11.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401866619", "401867924", "401866631", "401866424", "401866428" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.583333333333332, "pa": 26.25, "margin": 2.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767657", "401767658", "401767659", "401767405", "401767343", "401767660", "401767353", "401767100", "401767661", "401767662", "401767663", "401767338" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.8, "pa": 24.2, "margin": -4.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401866624", "401866420", "401866637", "401866642", "401866652" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 25.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.4, 23.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.7333333333333334, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19.0, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.0, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.083333333333334, "pa": 23.083333333333332, "margin": -7.999999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767657", "401767771", "401767190", "401767772", "401767758", "401767751", "401767773", "401767774", "401767765", "401767747", "401767775", "401767770" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.6, "pa": 28.0, "margin": -11.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401866619", "401867924", "401866631", "401866424", "401866428" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.583333333333332, "pa": 26.25, "margin": 2.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767657", "401767658", "401767659", "401767405", "401767343", "401767660", "401767353", "401767100", "401767661", "401767662", "401767663", "401767338" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.8, "pa": 24.2, "margin": -4.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401866624", "401866420", "401866637", "401866642", "401866652" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 25.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.4, 23.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.7333333333333334, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19.0, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.0, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401866660", "matchup": "Stonehill Skyhawks at Sacred Heart Pioneers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Sacred Heart Pioneers: QB Poochie Snyder/John Michalski, RB Darius Chukwuemeka, WR Dean Hangey/Ben Evee, TE Logan Lyson/Chris Leggett; Stonehill Skyhawks: QB Jack O'Connell/Drew Eason, RB Shane Eason/Aidan Garrett/Rayshaun King, WR Shawn Corchado/Jaylin Baker/An'Tiyan Neal, TE Cole Clarke/Kevin Sheridan", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.933333333333334, 28.1 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 25.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.4, 23.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.7333333333333334, 3.2333333333333334 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 54, "off_points_proxy": 83, "def_points_proxy": 127, "off_plays": 412, "off_yards": 1988, "def_plays": 384, "def_yards": 2511, "early_plays": 279, "early_yards": 1342, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866424", "401866428", "401866619", "401866631", "401867924" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.4310344827586208, "def_ppd": 2.3518518518518516, "off_ypp": 4.825242718446602, "def_ypp": 6.5390625, "early_down_ypp": 4.810035842293907 }, "home": { "off_drives": 53, "def_drives": 48, "off_points_proxy": 99, "def_points_proxy": 108, "off_plays": 434, "off_yards": 2439, "def_plays": 348, "def_yards": 2044, "early_plays": 314, "early_yards": 1565, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866420", "401866624", "401866637", "401866642", "401866652" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.8679245283018868, "def_ppd": 2.25, "off_ypp": 5.619815668202765, "def_ypp": 5.873563218390805, "early_down_ypp": 4.984076433121019 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2529", "teamName": "Sacred Heart Pioneers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866652", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Sacred Heart Pioneers at Maine Black Bears", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Harold Alfond Sports Stadium", "address": { "city": "Orono", "state": "ME", "zipCode": "04473", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "311", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "311", "displayName": "Maine Black Bears" } }, { "id": "2529", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2529", "displayName": "Sacred Heart Pioneers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://sacredheartpioneers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "284", "teamName": "Stonehill Skyhawks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866428", "date": "2026-09-26T19:30Z", "name": "Stonehill Skyhawks at Ohio Bobcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Peden Stadium", "address": { "city": "Athens", "state": "OH", "zipCode": "45701", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "195", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "195", "displayName": "Ohio Bobcats" } }, { "id": "284", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "284", "displayName": "Stonehill Skyhawks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 13.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://stonehillskyhawks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Fairfield. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fairfield&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.13&textField2=-73.28&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:13.282518+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 66. North wind around 6 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Light east wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866660", "matchup": "Stonehill Skyhawks at Sacred Heart Pioneers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fairfield&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.13&textField2=-73.28&e=0", "https://sacredheartpioneers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://stonehillskyhawks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401866660", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401866660", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3668", "fullName": "Campus Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Fairfield", "state": "CT", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "284", "away_name": "Stonehill Skyhawks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2529", "home_name": "Sacred Heart Pioneers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.083333333333334, "pa": 23.083333333333332, "margin": -7.999999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767657", "401767771", "401767190", "401767772", "401767758", "401767751", "401767773", "401767774", "401767765", "401767747", "401767775", "401767770" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.6, "pa": 28.0, "margin": -11.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401866619", "401867924", "401866631", "401866424", "401866428" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.583333333333332, "pa": 26.25, "margin": 2.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767657", "401767658", "401767659", "401767405", "401767343", "401767660", "401767353", "401767100", "401767661", "401767662", "401767663", "401767338" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.8, "pa": 24.2, "margin": -4.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401866624", "401866420", "401866637", "401866642", "401866652" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 25.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.4, 23.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.7333333333333334, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0, 38.8 ], "home": [ 8.100000000000001, 48.1 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401866660", "matchup": "Stonehill Skyhawks at Sacred Heart Pioneers", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3668", "guid": "5fb44ef1-e5f8-359c-8d3b-3f33619ec009", "fullName": "Campus Field", "address": { "city": "Fairfield", "state": "CT", "zipCode": "06825", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2529", "teamName": "Sacred Heart Pioneers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866652", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Sacred Heart Pioneers at Maine Black Bears", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Harold Alfond Sports Stadium", "address": { "city": "Orono", "state": "ME", "zipCode": "04473", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "311", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "311", "displayName": "Maine Black Bears" } }, { "id": "2529", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2529", "displayName": "Sacred Heart Pioneers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://sacredheartpioneers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "284", "teamName": "Stonehill Skyhawks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866428", "date": "2026-09-26T19:30Z", "name": "Stonehill Skyhawks at Ohio Bobcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Peden Stadium", "address": { "city": "Athens", "state": "OH", "zipCode": "45701", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "195", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "195", "displayName": "Ohio Bobcats" } }, { "id": "284", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "284", "displayName": "Stonehill Skyhawks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 13.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://stonehillskyhawks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Fairfield. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2529", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#284" ], "finding": "Sacred Heart Pioneers: QB Poochie Snyder/John Michalski, RB Darius Chukwuemeka, WR Dean Hangey/Ben Evee, TE Logan Lyson/Chris Leggett; Stonehill Skyhawks: QB Jack O'Connell/Drew Eason, RB Shane Eason/Aidan Garrett/Rayshaun King, WR Shawn Corchado/Jaylin Baker/An'Tiyan Neal, TE Cole Clarke/Kevin Sheridan" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2529", "teamName": "Sacred Heart Pioneers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866652", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Sacred Heart Pioneers at Maine Black Bears", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Harold Alfond Sports Stadium", "address": { "city": "Orono", "state": "ME", "zipCode": "04473", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "311", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "311", "displayName": "Maine Black Bears" } }, { "id": "2529", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2529", "displayName": "Sacred Heart Pioneers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://sacredheartpioneers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "284", "teamName": "Stonehill Skyhawks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866428", "date": "2026-09-26T19:30Z", "name": "Stonehill Skyhawks at Ohio Bobcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Peden Stadium", "address": { "city": "Athens", "state": "OH", "zipCode": "45701", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "195", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "195", "displayName": "Ohio Bobcats" } }, { "id": "284", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "284", "displayName": "Stonehill Skyhawks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 13.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://stonehillskyhawks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Fairfield. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fairfield&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.13&textField2=-73.28&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:13.282518+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 66. North wind around 6 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Light east wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.933333333333334, 28.1 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 25.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.4, 23.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.7333333333333334, 3.2333333333333334 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Stonehill Skyhawks at Sacred Heart Pioneers", "market": { "id": "401866660", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866660", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.684581+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.863275+00:00", "home_line": -8.5, "away_line": 8.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 43.5, "under_line": 43.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -352.0, "away_ml": 265.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -8.5, "average_total": 43.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 5.9090909090909065, "combined": 45.5, "spread_buffer": -2.5909090909090935, "total_difference": 2.0 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 5.9090909090909065, "combined": 45.5, "spread_buffer": -2.5909090909090935, "total_difference": 2.0 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 13.79218053984348, "combined": 45.551333251688305, "spread_buffer": 5.29218053984348, "total_difference": 2.0513332516883054 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 13.79218053984348, "combined": 45.551333251688305, "spread_buffer": 5.29218053984348, "total_difference": 2.0513332516883054 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 9.300000000000004, "combined": 46.9, "spread_buffer": 0.8000000000000043, "total_difference": 3.3999999999999986 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 9.300000000000004, "combined": 46.9, "spread_buffer": 0.8000000000000043, "total_difference": 3.3999999999999986 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401866660", "matchup": "Stonehill Skyhawks at Sacred Heart Pioneers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Sacred Heart Pioneers", "line": -8.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866660", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.684581+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.863275+00:00", "home_line": -8.5, "away_line": 8.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 43.5, "under_line": 43.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -352.0, "away_ml": 265.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 0.8000000000000043, "production_adjusted": 0.8000000000000043, "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.6666666666666643, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.795454545454547, 25.704545454545453 ], "directional_buffer": -2.5909090909090935, "scenario_minimum": -2.5909090909090935 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.879576355922412, 29.671756895765892 ], "directional_buffer": 5.29218053984348, "scenario_minimum": 5.29218053984348 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8000000000000043, "scenario_minimum": 0.8000000000000043 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8000000000000043, "scenario_minimum": 0.8000000000000043 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.933333333333337, 28.1 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6666666666666643, "stressed_buffer": -2.3333333333333357 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8000000000000043, "stressed_buffer": -2.1999999999999957 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.933333333333337, 28.1 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6666666666666643, "stressed_buffer": -2.3333333333333357 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.933333333333334, 28.1 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 25.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.4, 23.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.7333333333333334, 3.2333333333333334 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fairfield&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.13&textField2=-73.28&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 66. North wind around 6 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401866660", "matchup": "Stonehill Skyhawks at Sacred Heart Pioneers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 43.5, "price": -113.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866660", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.684581+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.863275+00:00", "home_line": -8.5, "away_line": 8.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 43.5, "under_line": 43.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -352.0, "away_ml": 265.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 3.3999999999999986, "production_adjusted": 3.3999999999999986, "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.3999999999999986, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.795454545454547, 25.704545454545453 ], "directional_buffer": 2.0, "scenario_minimum": 2.0 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.879576355922412, 29.671756895765892 ], "directional_buffer": 2.0513332516883054, "scenario_minimum": 2.0513332516883054 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "directional_buffer": 3.3999999999999986, "scenario_minimum": 3.3999999999999986 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "directional_buffer": 3.3999999999999986, "scenario_minimum": 3.3999999999999986 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "directional_buffer": 3.3999999999999986, "stressed_buffer": 0.3999999999999986 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "directional_buffer": 3.3999999999999986, "stressed_buffer": 0.3999999999999986 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.933333333333337, 28.1 ], "directional_buffer": 3.5333333333333385, "stressed_buffer": 0.5333333333333385 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.933333333333334, 28.1 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 25.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.4, 23.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.7333333333333334, 3.2333333333333334 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fairfield&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.13&textField2=-73.28&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 66. North wind around 6 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 22.5, 30.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 22.0, 22.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 26.5, 27.0 ], "current_rates": [ 12.333333333333334, 12.333333333333334 ] } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 25.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 25.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.385725176976333, 30.17530325361801 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.385725176976333, 30.17530325361801 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.385725176976333, 30.17530325361801 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 30.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 30.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.5, "pa": 30.333333333333332, "margin": -7.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401757223", "401762816", "401767030", "401767031", "401767032", "401767033", "401767034", "401767035", "401767136", "401767137", "401767138", "401767139" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 22.0, "pa": 22.4, "margin": -0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401866619", "401862701", "401866629", "401866638", "401866653" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 26.5, "pa": 27.0, "margin": -0.5, "event_ids": [ "401767551", "401767552", "401767320", "401767034", "401767553", "401767554", "401767555", "401767676", "401767677", "401767678" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 12.333333333333334, "pa": 12.333333333333334, "margin": 0.0, "event_ids": [ "401867805", "401867806", "401866654" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.75, 28.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 17.366666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.7733333333333331, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20.0, 25.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.0, 25.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.5, "pa": 30.333333333333332, "margin": -7.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401757223", "401762816", "401767030", "401767031", "401767032", "401767033", "401767034", "401767035", "401767136", "401767137", "401767138", "401767139" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 22.0, "pa": 22.4, "margin": -0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401866619", "401862701", "401866629", "401866638", "401866653" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 26.5, "pa": 27.0, "margin": -0.5, "event_ids": [ "401767551", "401767552", "401767320", "401767034", "401767553", "401767554", "401767555", "401767676", "401767677", "401767678" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 12.333333333333334, "pa": 12.333333333333334, "margin": 0.0, "event_ids": [ "401867805", "401867806", "401866654" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.75, 28.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 17.366666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.7733333333333331, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20.0, 25.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.0, 25.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401866662", "matchup": "Bryant Bulldogs at Brown Bears", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Brown Bears: QB James Murphy, RB Matt Childs/Qwentin Brown/Eli Jones, WR Pearson Hill/Carson Hill/Saphir Miller, TE Levi Linowes/Jadon Garza-Pender; Bryant Bulldogs: QB Brennan Myer, RB OJ Ross/Jordan Bennett/Kendrick Agenor, WR Jose Leon/Shamar Fowles, TE Maximus Nosler/Koby Keenan", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. Current .50 influence cap violation: PASS required.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 23.976666666666667, 25.165 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.75, 28.416666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 17.366666666666667 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.7733333333333331, 2.273333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 49, "def_drives": 50, "off_points_proxy": 110, "def_points_proxy": 112, "off_plays": 411, "off_yards": 2095, "def_plays": 397, "def_yards": 2767, "early_plays": 290, "early_yards": 1526, "explosive_plays": 25, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862701", "401866619", "401866629", "401866638", "401866653" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.2448979591836733, "def_ppd": 2.24, "off_ypp": 5.097323600973236, "def_ypp": 6.969773299748111, "early_down_ypp": 5.2620689655172415 }, "home": { "off_drives": 38, "def_drives": 36, "off_points_proxy": 37, "def_points_proxy": 37, "off_plays": 241, "off_yards": 1135, "def_plays": 276, "def_yards": 1295, "early_plays": 176, "early_yards": 814, "explosive_plays": 14, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866654", "401867805", "401867806" ], "games": 3, "off_ppd": 0.9736842105263158, "def_ppd": 1.0277777777777777, "off_ypp": 4.70954356846473, "def_ypp": 4.692028985507246, "early_down_ypp": 4.625 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "225", "teamName": "Brown Bears", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866654", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Brown Bears at Rhode Island Rams", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Centreville Bank Stadium", "address": { "city": "Pawtucket", "state": "RI", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "227", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 13.0, "displayValue": "13" }, "team": { "id": "227", "displayName": "Rhode Island Rams" } }, { "id": "225", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "225", "displayName": "Brown Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://brownbears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2803", "teamName": "Bryant Bulldogs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866653", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "North Carolina A&T Aggies at Bryant Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Beirne Stadium", "address": { "city": "Smithfield", "state": "RI", "zipCode": "02917", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2803", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2803", "displayName": "Bryant Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2448", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2448", "displayName": "North Carolina A&T Aggies" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://bryantbulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Providence. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Providence&state=RI&site=BOX&textField1=41.822&textField2=-71.4197&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:13.388130+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Calm wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866662", "matchup": "Bryant Bulldogs at Brown Bears", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://brownbears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://bryantbulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Providence&state=RI&site=BOX&textField1=41.822&textField2=-71.4197&e=0" ], "tu": { "id": "401866662", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401866662", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3656", "fullName": "Brown Stadium (RI)", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Providence", "state": "RI", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2803", "away_name": "Bryant Bulldogs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "225", "home_name": "Brown Bears", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.5, "pa": 30.333333333333332, "margin": -7.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401757223", "401762816", "401767030", "401767031", "401767032", "401767033", "401767034", "401767035", "401767136", "401767137", "401767138", "401767139" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 22.0, "pa": 22.4, "margin": -0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401866619", "401862701", "401866629", "401866638", "401866653" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 26.5, "pa": 27.0, "margin": -0.5, "event_ids": [ "401767551", "401767552", "401767320", "401767034", "401767553", "401767554", "401767555", "401767676", "401767677", "401767678" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 12.333333333333334, "pa": 12.333333333333334, "margin": 0.0, "event_ids": [ "401867805", "401867806", "401866654" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.75, 28.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 17.366666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.7733333333333331, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.18500000000000227, 40.185 ], "home": [ 5.164999999999999, 45.165 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401866662", "matchup": "Bryant Bulldogs at Brown Bears", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3656", "guid": "d64dee8a-7094-3bd9-90f6-34d8be14f6f6", "fullName": "Brown Stadium (RI)", "address": { "city": "Providence", "state": "RI", "zipCode": "02906", "country": "USA" }, "grass": true, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "225", "teamName": "Brown Bears", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866654", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Brown Bears at Rhode Island Rams", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Centreville Bank Stadium", "address": { "city": "Pawtucket", "state": "RI", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "227", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 13.0, "displayValue": "13" }, "team": { "id": "227", "displayName": "Rhode Island Rams" } }, { "id": "225", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "225", "displayName": "Brown Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://brownbears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2803", "teamName": "Bryant Bulldogs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866653", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "North Carolina A&T Aggies at Bryant Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Beirne Stadium", "address": { "city": "Smithfield", "state": "RI", "zipCode": "02917", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2803", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2803", "displayName": "Bryant Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2448", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2448", "displayName": "North Carolina A&T Aggies" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://bryantbulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Providence. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#225", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2803" ], "finding": "Brown Bears: QB James Murphy, RB Matt Childs/Qwentin Brown/Eli Jones, WR Pearson Hill/Carson Hill/Saphir Miller, TE Levi Linowes/Jadon Garza-Pender; Bryant Bulldogs: QB Brennan Myer, RB OJ Ross/Jordan Bennett/Kendrick Agenor, WR Jose Leon/Shamar Fowles, TE Maximus Nosler/Koby Keenan" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "225", "teamName": "Brown Bears", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866654", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Brown Bears at Rhode Island Rams", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Centreville Bank Stadium", "address": { "city": "Pawtucket", "state": "RI", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "227", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 13.0, "displayValue": "13" }, "team": { "id": "227", "displayName": "Rhode Island Rams" } }, { "id": "225", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "225", "displayName": "Brown Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://brownbears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2803", "teamName": "Bryant Bulldogs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866653", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "North Carolina A&T Aggies at Bryant Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Beirne Stadium", "address": { "city": "Smithfield", "state": "RI", "zipCode": "02917", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2803", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2803", "displayName": "Bryant Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2448", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2448", "displayName": "North Carolina A&T Aggies" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://bryantbulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Providence. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Providence&state=RI&site=BOX&textField1=41.822&textField2=-71.4197&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:13.388130+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Calm wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 23.976666666666667, 25.165 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.75, 28.416666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 17.366666666666667 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.7733333333333331, 2.273333333333333 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Bryant Bulldogs at Brown Bears", "market": { "id": "401866662", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866662", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.685622+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.933156+00:00", "home_line": -4.5, "away_line": 4.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -113.0, "total": 42.5, "under_line": 42.5, "over_price": -109.0, "under_price": -114.0, "home_ml": -190.0, "away_ml": 151.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -4.5, "average_total": 42.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 3.5606060606060588, "combined": 46.44444444444444, "spread_buffer": -0.9393939393939412, "total_difference": 3.944444444444443 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 3.5606060606060588, "combined": 46.44444444444444, "spread_buffer": -0.9393939393939412, "total_difference": 3.944444444444443 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 12.789578076641678, "combined": 47.56102843059435, "spread_buffer": 8.289578076641678, "total_difference": 5.061028430594348 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 12.789578076641678, "combined": 47.56102843059435, "spread_buffer": 8.289578076641678, "total_difference": 5.061028430594348 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 4.979999999999997, "combined": 45.35, "spread_buffer": 0.4799999999999969, "total_difference": 2.8500000000000014 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 4.979999999999997, "combined": 45.35, "spread_buffer": 0.4799999999999969, "total_difference": 2.8500000000000014 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401866662", "matchup": "Bryant Bulldogs at Brown Bears", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Brown Bears", "line": -4.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866662", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.685622+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.933156+00:00", "home_line": -4.5, "away_line": 4.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -113.0, "total": 42.5, "under_line": 42.5, "over_price": -109.0, "under_price": -114.0, "home_ml": -190.0, "away_ml": 151.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 0.4799999999999969, "production_adjusted": 0.4799999999999969, "minimum_all_scenarios": -3.3116666666666674, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.441919191919194, 25.002525252525253 ], "directional_buffer": -0.9393939393939412, "scenario_minimum": -0.9393939393939412 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.385725176976333, 30.17530325361801 ], "directional_buffer": 8.289578076641678, "scenario_minimum": 8.289578076641678 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "directional_buffer": 0.4799999999999969, "scenario_minimum": 0.4799999999999969 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "directional_buffer": 0.4799999999999969, "scenario_minimum": 0.4799999999999969 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 23.976666666666667, 25.165 ], "directional_buffer": -3.3116666666666674, "stressed_buffer": -6.311666666666667 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "directional_buffer": 0.4799999999999969, "stressed_buffer": -2.520000000000003 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 23.976666666666667, 25.165 ], "directional_buffer": -3.3116666666666674, "stressed_buffer": -6.311666666666667 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 23.976666666666667, 25.165 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the afternoon.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 26.4, "pa": 21.3, "margin": 5.099999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767267", "401767697", "401767698", "401767699", "401767700", "401767701", "401767702", "401767703", "401767695", "401767678" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 21.666666666666668, "margin": -1.0, "event_ids": [ "401867834", "401866647", "401867835" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.333333333333332, "pa": 19.583333333333332, "margin": 9.75, "event_ids": [ "401767726", "401767689", "401767735", "401767699", "401767773", "401788997", "401767685", "401767676", "401788998", "401767708", "401833975", "401836196" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 34.666666666666664, "pa": 30.0, "margin": 4.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868023", "401867827", "401870840" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.991666666666667, 25.316666666666666 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.333333333333336, 28.166666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.0316666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23.0, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 26.4, "pa": 21.3, "margin": 5.099999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767267", "401767697", "401767698", "401767699", "401767700", "401767701", "401767702", "401767703", "401767695", "401767678" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 21.666666666666668, "margin": -1.0, "event_ids": [ "401867834", "401866647", "401867835" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.333333333333332, "pa": 19.583333333333332, "margin": 9.75, "event_ids": [ "401767726", "401767689", "401767735", "401767699", "401767773", "401788997", "401767685", "401767676", "401788998", "401767708", "401833975", "401836196" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 34.666666666666664, "pa": 30.0, "margin": 4.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868023", "401867827", "401870840" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.991666666666667, 25.316666666666666 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.333333333333336, 28.166666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.0316666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23.0, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401867836", "matchup": "Dartmouth Big Green at Yale Bulldogs", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Yale Bulldogs: QB Charles Hewitt/Dante Reno, RB Hugo Djeumeni Kemeni/Cuttler Adams/Vann Hopping, WR Lucius Anderson/Jaxton Santiago/Reid Jones, TE Graham Smith/Brady Wagner; Dartmouth Big Green: QB Grayson Saunier, RB Myles Craddock/Chris Roper/Jacob Henry, WR Ky'Dric Fisher/James Elliott/Nick Lemon, TE Kyle Meier/Kristian Strong", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. Current .50 influence cap violation: PASS required.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.30166666666667, 29.273333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 22.991666666666667, 25.316666666666666 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.333333333333336, 28.166666666666664 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.0316666666666667, 2.5316666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 25, "def_drives": 26, "off_points_proxy": 62, "def_points_proxy": 65, "off_plays": 231, "off_yards": 1383, "def_plays": 272, "def_yards": 1400, "early_plays": 161, "early_yards": 754, "explosive_plays": 20, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866647", "401867834", "401867835" ], "games": 3, "off_ppd": 2.48, "def_ppd": 2.5, "off_ypp": 5.987012987012987, "def_ypp": 5.147058823529412, "early_down_ypp": 4.683229813664596 }, "home": { "off_drives": 42, "def_drives": 41, "off_points_proxy": 103, "def_points_proxy": 83, "off_plays": 286, "off_yards": 1950, "def_plays": 242, "def_yards": 1295, "early_plays": 208, "early_yards": 1376, "explosive_plays": 34, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867827", "401868023", "401870840" ], "games": 3, "off_ppd": 2.4523809523809526, "def_ppd": 2.024390243902439, "off_ypp": 6.818181818181818, "def_ypp": 5.351239669421488, "early_down_ypp": 6.615384615384615 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "43", "teamName": "Yale Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401870840", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Merrimack Warriors at Yale Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Yale Bowl", "address": { "city": "New Haven", "state": "CT", "zipCode": "06515", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "43", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "43", "displayName": "Yale Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2771", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2771", "displayName": "Merrimack Warriors" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://yalebulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "159", "teamName": "Dartmouth Big Green", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867835", "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "name": "Pennsylvania Quakers at Dartmouth Big Green", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Memorial Field (Dartmouth)", "address": { "city": "Hanover", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03755", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "159", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "159", "displayName": "Dartmouth Big Green" } }, { "id": "219", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "219", "displayName": "Pennsylvania Quakers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.938, "officialScheduleSource": "https://dartmouthsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to New Haven. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Haven&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.3101&textField2=-72.9241&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:13.776274+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Light and variable wind becoming north around 6 mph. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Calm wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867836", "matchup": "Dartmouth Big Green at Yale Bulldogs", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://dartmouthsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Haven&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.3101&textField2=-72.9241&e=0", "https://yalebulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401867836", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867836", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3997", "fullName": "Yale Bowl", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "New Haven", "state": "CT", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "159", "away_name": "Dartmouth Big Green", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "43", "home_name": "Yale Bulldogs", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 26.4, "pa": 21.3, "margin": 5.099999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767267", "401767697", "401767698", "401767699", "401767700", "401767701", "401767702", "401767703", "401767695", "401767678" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 21.666666666666668, "margin": -1.0, "event_ids": [ "401867834", "401866647", "401867835" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.333333333333332, "pa": 19.583333333333332, "margin": 9.75, "event_ids": [ "401767726", "401767689", "401767735", "401767699", "401767773", "401788997", "401767685", "401767676", "401788998", "401767708", "401833975", "401836196" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 34.666666666666664, "pa": 30.0, "margin": 4.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868023", "401867827", "401870840" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.991666666666667, 25.316666666666666 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.333333333333336, 28.166666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.0316666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 3.130833333333335, 43.130833333333335 ], "home": [ 9.273333333333333, 49.27333333333333 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401867836", "matchup": "Dartmouth Big Green at Yale Bulldogs", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3997", "guid": "6b67d126-ba05-3bf9-aa5c-b3e7191b958c", "fullName": "Yale Bowl", "address": { "city": "New Haven", "state": "CT", "zipCode": "06515", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "43", "teamName": "Yale Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401870840", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Merrimack Warriors at Yale Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Yale Bowl", "address": { "city": "New Haven", "state": "CT", "zipCode": "06515", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "43", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "43", "displayName": "Yale Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2771", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2771", "displayName": "Merrimack Warriors" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://yalebulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "159", "teamName": "Dartmouth Big Green", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867835", "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "name": "Pennsylvania Quakers at Dartmouth Big Green", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Memorial Field (Dartmouth)", "address": { "city": "Hanover", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03755", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "159", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "159", "displayName": "Dartmouth Big Green" } }, { "id": "219", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "219", "displayName": "Pennsylvania Quakers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.938, "officialScheduleSource": "https://dartmouthsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to New Haven. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#43", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#159" ], "finding": "Yale Bulldogs: QB Charles Hewitt/Dante Reno, RB Hugo Djeumeni Kemeni/Cuttler Adams/Vann Hopping, WR Lucius Anderson/Jaxton Santiago/Reid Jones, TE Graham Smith/Brady Wagner; Dartmouth Big Green: QB Grayson Saunier, RB Myles Craddock/Chris Roper/Jacob Henry, WR Ky'Dric Fisher/James Elliott/Nick Lemon, TE Kyle Meier/Kristian Strong" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "43", "teamName": "Yale Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401870840", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Merrimack Warriors at Yale Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Yale Bowl", "address": { "city": "New Haven", "state": "CT", "zipCode": "06515", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "43", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "43", "displayName": "Yale Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2771", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2771", "displayName": "Merrimack Warriors" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://yalebulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "159", "teamName": "Dartmouth Big Green", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867835", "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "name": "Pennsylvania Quakers at Dartmouth Big Green", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Memorial Field (Dartmouth)", "address": { "city": "Hanover", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03755", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "159", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "159", "displayName": "Dartmouth Big Green" } }, { "id": "219", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "219", "displayName": "Pennsylvania Quakers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.938, "officialScheduleSource": "https://dartmouthsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to New Haven. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Haven&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.3101&textField2=-72.9241&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:13.776274+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Light and variable wind becoming north around 6 mph. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Calm wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.30166666666667, 29.273333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 22.991666666666667, 25.316666666666666 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.333333333333336, 28.166666666666664 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.0316666666666667, 2.5316666666666667 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Haven&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.3101&textField2=-72.9241&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Light and variable wind becoming north around 6 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401867919", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867919", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3762", "fullName": "Hughes Stadium (MD)", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Baltimore", "state": "MD", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2523", "away_name": "Robert Morris Colonials", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2415", "home_name": "Morgan State Bears", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.727272727272727, 26.68181818181818 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.727272727272727, 26.68181818181818 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.727272727272727, 26.68181818181818 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 15.166666666666666, 24.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 25.6, 24.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.333333333333332, 26.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 31.6, 27.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 18.107603642853935, 30.401082863967147 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.107603642853935, 30.401082863967147 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.107603642853935, 30.401082863967147 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18.0, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.0, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.166666666666666, "pa": 24.916666666666668, "margin": -9.750000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401756878", "401767550", "401767762", "401767613", "401767763", "401767744", "401767759", "401767764", "401767765", "401767766", "401767767", "401767756" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.6, "pa": 24.6, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401867916", "401867917", "401866412", "401866426", "401867918" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 26.583333333333332, "margin": -3.25, "event_ids": [ "401761593", "401767328", "401762819", "401774013", "401767398", "401767399", "401767400", "401767354", "401767401", "401767347", "401767402", "401767403" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.6, "pa": 27.6, "margin": 4.0, "event_ids": [ "401866618", "401856774", "401867966", "401866640", "401867967" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.875, 24.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.6, 28.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.9500000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23.0, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.166666666666666, "pa": 24.916666666666668, "margin": -9.750000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401756878", "401767550", "401767762", "401767613", "401767763", "401767744", "401767759", "401767764", "401767765", "401767766", "401767767", "401767756" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.6, "pa": 24.6, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401867916", "401867917", "401866412", "401866426", "401867918" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 26.583333333333332, "margin": -3.25, "event_ids": [ "401761593", "401767328", "401762819", "401774013", "401767398", "401767399", "401767400", "401767354", "401767401", "401767347", "401767402", "401767403" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.6, "pa": 27.6, "margin": 4.0, "event_ids": [ "401866618", "401856774", "401867966", "401866640", "401867967" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.875, 24.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.6, 28.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.9500000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23.0, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401867919", "matchup": "Robert Morris Colonials at Morgan State Bears", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Morgan State Bears: QB Cameron Edge/Tahj Smith, RB Jordan Barnett/Keith Jenkins Jr./Dorian Harris, WR Justin Perry/Dante Archie/Joseph Kennerly Jr., TE Malachi Bryant/Alex Simmons; Robert Morris Colonials: QB Carson Haggard, RB Xavier Goulbourne/Donta Whack/Breyon Williams, WR Jaqai Carter/Noah Schaerli/Attawan Mays, TE Tyreke Jinks/Max Lopacienski", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.650000000000002, 28.5625 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.875, 24.125 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.6, 28.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.9500000000000002, 2.45 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 108, "def_points_proxy": 117, "off_plays": 374, "off_yards": 2034, "def_plays": 452, "def_yards": 2620, "early_plays": 263, "early_yards": 1378, "explosive_plays": 31, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866412", "401866426", "401867916", "401867917", "401867918" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.8305084745762712, "def_ppd": 1.9180327868852458, "off_ypp": 5.438502673796791, "def_ypp": 5.79646017699115, "early_down_ypp": 5.239543726235741 }, "home": { "off_drives": 55, "def_drives": 55, "off_points_proxy": 152, "def_points_proxy": 139, "off_plays": 348, "off_yards": 2413, "def_plays": 434, "def_yards": 2945, "early_plays": 254, "early_yards": 1886, "explosive_plays": 30, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856774", "401866618", "401866640", "401867966", "401867967" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.7636363636363637, "def_ppd": 2.5272727272727273, "off_ypp": 6.933908045977011, "def_ypp": 6.785714285714286, "early_down_ypp": 7.425196850393701 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2415", "teamName": "Morgan State Bears", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867967", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Morgan State Bears at Villanova Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Villanova Stadium", "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "19085", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "222", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "222", "displayName": "Villanova Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2415", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "2415", "displayName": "Morgan State Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://morganstatebears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2523", "teamName": "Robert Morris Colonials", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867918", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Norfolk State Spartans at Robert Morris Colonials", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Joe Walton Stadium", "address": { "city": "Moon Township", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "15108", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2523", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "2523", "displayName": "Robert Morris Colonials" } }, { "id": "2450", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2450", "displayName": "Norfolk State Spartans" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://rmucolonials.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Baltimore. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Baltimore&state=MD&site=LWX&textField1=39.3008&textField2=-76.6106&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:13.892478+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Tonight A chance of showers, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867919", "matchup": "Robert Morris Colonials at Morgan State Bears", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Baltimore&state=MD&site=LWX&textField1=39.3008&textField2=-76.6106&e=1", "https://morganstatebears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://rmucolonials.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401867919", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867919", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3762", "fullName": "Hughes Stadium (MD)", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Baltimore", "state": "MD", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2523", "away_name": "Robert Morris Colonials", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2415", "home_name": "Morgan State Bears", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.166666666666666, "pa": 24.916666666666668, "margin": -9.750000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401756878", "401767550", "401767762", "401767613", "401767763", "401767744", "401767759", "401767764", "401767765", "401767766", "401767767", "401767756" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.6, "pa": 24.6, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401867916", "401867917", "401866412", "401866426", "401867918" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 26.583333333333332, "margin": -3.25, "event_ids": [ "401761593", "401767328", "401762819", "401774013", "401767398", "401767399", "401767400", "401767354", "401767401", "401767347", "401767402", "401767403" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.6, "pa": 27.6, "margin": 4.0, "event_ids": [ "401866618", "401856774", "401867966", "401866640", "401867967" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.875, 24.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.6, 28.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.9500000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], 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No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401867919", "matchup": "Robert Morris Colonials at Morgan State Bears", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 53.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867919", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.868310+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.063101+00:00", "home_line": -10.0, "away_line": 10.0, "home_line_price": -113.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 53.5, "under_line": 53.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -431.0, "away_ml": 315.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 2.1499999999999986, "production_adjusted": 2.1499999999999986, "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.7124999999999986, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.727272727272727, 26.68181818181818 ], "directional_buffer": 4.0909090909090935, "scenario_minimum": 4.0909090909090935 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 18.107603642853935, 30.401082863967147 ], "directional_buffer": 4.991313493178922, "scenario_minimum": 4.991313493178922 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "directional_buffer": 2.1499999999999986, "scenario_minimum": 2.1499999999999986 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "directional_buffer": 2.1499999999999986, "scenario_minimum": 2.1499999999999986 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.65, 28.5625 ], "directional_buffer": -0.7124999999999986, "stressed_buffer": -3.7124999999999986 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "directional_buffer": 2.1499999999999986, "stressed_buffer": -0.8500000000000014 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.65, 28.5625 ], "directional_buffer": -0.7124999999999986, "stressed_buffer": -3.7124999999999986 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.650000000000002, 28.5625 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.875, 24.125 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.6, 28.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.9500000000000002, 2.45 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Baltimore&state=MD&site=LWX&textField1=39.3008&textField2=-76.6106&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401867930", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867930", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3979", "fullName": "Hameline Field at Wagner College Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Staten Island", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "163", "away_name": "Princeton Tigers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2681", "home_name": "Wagner Seahawks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.62777777777778, 17.734343434343437 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.62777777777778, 17.734343434343437 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.62777777777778, 17.734343434343437 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 20.8, 24.4 ], "current_rates": [ 23.666666666666668, 9.333333333333334 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 16.416666666666668, 24.5 ], "current_rates": [ 12.4, 43.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 17.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 17.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.84372986112675, 20.076449350677528 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.84372986112675, 20.076449350677528 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.84372986112675, 20.076449350677528 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 25.0, 20.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.0, 20.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 20.8, "pa": 24.4, "margin": -3.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767644", "401769866", "401767681", "401767576", "401767553", "401767705", "401767693", "401767703", "401788998", "401788996" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 23.666666666666668, "pa": 9.333333333333334, "margin": 14.333333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401866638", "401866646", "401867819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.416666666666668, "pa": 24.5, "margin": -8.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401756854", "401767719", "401767627", "401762822", "401767406", "401767776", "401767745", "401767754", "401767768", "401767766", "401767775", "401767761" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 12.4, "pa": 43.2, "margin": -30.800000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401867916", "401867928", "401867929", "401858233", "401867899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.65, 20.40833333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.43333333333334, 10.866666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.961666666666668, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.0, 12.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.0, 12.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 20.8, "pa": 24.4, "margin": -3.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767644", "401769866", "401767681", "401767576", "401767553", "401767705", "401767693", "401767703", "401788998", "401788996" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 23.666666666666668, "pa": 9.333333333333334, "margin": 14.333333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401866638", "401866646", "401867819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.416666666666668, "pa": 24.5, "margin": -8.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401756854", "401767719", "401767627", "401762822", "401767406", "401767776", "401767745", "401767754", "401767768", "401767766", "401767775", "401767761" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 12.4, "pa": 43.2, "margin": -30.800000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401867916", "401867928", "401867929", "401858233", "401867899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.65, 20.40833333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.43333333333334, 10.866666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.961666666666668, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.0, 12.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.0, 12.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401867930", "matchup": "Princeton Tigers at Wagner Seahawks", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Wagner Seahawks: QB Benjamin Newman/Trip Maxwell, RB Shawn James/Sekou Kamau, WR Zion Fowler-El/Derek Burrell/Jeremiah Colclough, TE Christopher Harris/Johans Bars; Princeton Tigers: QB Wyatt Becker/Ty Ciongoli, RB Kai Honda/Ethan Clark/Christian Lynch, WR Josh Smith/Aidan Besselman/Jackson Green, TE no primary receiver established", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. Current .50 influence cap violation: PASS required.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.00333333333334, 16.946666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 22.65, 20.40833333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.43333333333334, 10.866666666666667 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.961666666666668, -3.461666666666668 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 30, "def_drives": 28, "off_points_proxy": 73, "def_points_proxy": 28, "off_plays": 200, "off_yards": 1189, "def_plays": 260, "def_yards": 1186, "early_plays": 142, "early_yards": 907, "explosive_plays": 20, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866638", "401866646", "401867819" ], "games": 3, "off_ppd": 2.433333333333333, "def_ppd": 1.0, "off_ypp": 5.945, "def_ypp": 4.561538461538461, "early_down_ypp": 6.387323943661972 }, "home": { "off_drives": 70, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 76, "def_points_proxy": 180, "off_plays": 457, "off_yards": 2022, "def_plays": 374, "def_yards": 2662, "early_plays": 298, "early_yards": 1238, "explosive_plays": 26, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858233", "401867899", "401867916", "401867928", "401867929" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.0857142857142856, "def_ppd": 2.903225806451613, "off_ypp": 4.424507658643326, "def_ypp": 7.117647058823529, "early_down_ypp": 4.154362416107382 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2681", "teamName": "Wagner Seahawks", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867899", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Wagner Seahawks at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Arute Field", "address": { "city": "New Britain", "state": "CT", "zipCode": "06053", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2115", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 45.0, "displayValue": "45" }, "team": { "id": "2115", "displayName": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils" } }, { "id": "2681", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2681", "displayName": "Wagner Seahawks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://wagnerathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "163", "teamName": "Princeton Tigers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867819", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Princeton Tigers at Columbia Lions", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Lawrence A. Wien Stadium", "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY", "zipCode": "10034", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "171", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "171", "displayName": "Columbia Lions" } }, { "id": "163", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "163", "displayName": "Princeton Tigers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goprincetontigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Staten Island. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Staten+Island&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=40.5866&textField2=-74.1489&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.033998+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Light and variable wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the morning. Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 57. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867930", "matchup": "Princeton Tigers at Wagner Seahawks", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Staten+Island&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=40.5866&textField2=-74.1489&e=0", "https://goprincetontigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://wagnerathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401867930", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867930", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3979", "fullName": "Hameline Field at Wagner College Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Staten Island", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "163", "away_name": "Princeton Tigers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2681", "home_name": "Wagner Seahawks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 20.8, "pa": 24.4, "margin": -3.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767644", "401769866", "401767681", "401767576", "401767553", "401767705", "401767693", "401767703", "401788998", "401788996" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 23.666666666666668, "pa": 9.333333333333334, "margin": 14.333333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401866638", "401866646", "401867819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.416666666666668, "pa": 24.5, "margin": -8.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401756854", "401767719", "401767627", "401762822", "401767406", "401767776", "401767745", "401767754", "401767768", "401767766", "401767775", "401767761" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 12.4, "pa": 43.2, "margin": -30.800000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401867916", "401867928", "401867929", "401858233", "401867899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.65, 20.40833333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.43333333333334, 10.866666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.961666666666668, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 13.003333333333337, 53.00333333333334 ], "home": [ 0, 32.17583333333333 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401867930", "matchup": "Princeton Tigers at Wagner Seahawks", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3979", "guid": "029ba6e2-b848-35e9-941e-3d055145a848", "fullName": "Hameline Field at Wagner College Stadium", "address": { "city": "Staten Island", "state": "NY", "zipCode": "10301", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2681", "teamName": "Wagner Seahawks", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867899", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Wagner Seahawks at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Arute Field", "address": { "city": "New Britain", "state": "CT", "zipCode": "06053", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2115", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 45.0, "displayValue": "45" }, "team": { "id": "2115", "displayName": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils" } }, { "id": "2681", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2681", "displayName": "Wagner Seahawks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://wagnerathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "163", "teamName": "Princeton Tigers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867819", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Princeton Tigers at Columbia Lions", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Lawrence A. Wien Stadium", "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY", "zipCode": "10034", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "171", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "171", "displayName": "Columbia Lions" } }, { "id": "163", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "163", "displayName": "Princeton Tigers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goprincetontigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Staten Island. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2681", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#163" ], "finding": "Wagner Seahawks: QB Benjamin Newman/Trip Maxwell, RB Shawn James/Sekou Kamau, WR Zion Fowler-El/Derek Burrell/Jeremiah Colclough, TE Christopher Harris/Johans Bars; Princeton Tigers: QB Wyatt Becker/Ty Ciongoli, RB Kai Honda/Ethan Clark/Christian Lynch, WR Josh Smith/Aidan Besselman/Jackson Green, TE no primary receiver established" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2681", "teamName": "Wagner Seahawks", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867899", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Wagner Seahawks at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Arute Field", "address": { "city": "New Britain", "state": "CT", "zipCode": "06053", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2115", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 45.0, "displayValue": "45" }, "team": { "id": "2115", "displayName": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils" } }, { "id": "2681", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2681", "displayName": "Wagner Seahawks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://wagnerathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "163", "teamName": "Princeton Tigers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867819", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Princeton Tigers at Columbia Lions", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Lawrence A. Wien Stadium", "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY", "zipCode": "10034", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "171", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "171", "displayName": "Columbia Lions" } }, { "id": "163", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "163", "displayName": "Princeton Tigers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goprincetontigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Staten Island. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Staten+Island&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=40.5866&textField2=-74.1489&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.033998+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Light and variable wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the morning. Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 57. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.00333333333334, 16.946666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 22.65, 20.40833333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.43333333333334, 10.866666666666667 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.961666666666668, -3.461666666666668 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Princeton Tigers at Wagner Seahawks", "market": { "id": "401867930", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867930", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.883383+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.098483+00:00", "home_line": 24.5, "away_line": -24.5, "home_line_price": -104.0, "away_line_price": -119.0, "total": 43.5, "under_line": 43.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 1080.0, "away_ml": -3100.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 24.5, "average_total": 43.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -8.893434343434343, "combined": 44.36212121212122, "spread_buffer": 15.606565656565657, "total_difference": 0.8621212121212167 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -8.893434343434343, "combined": 44.36212121212122, "spread_buffer": 15.606565656565657, "total_difference": 0.8621212121212167 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -4.767280510449222, "combined": 44.92017921180428, "spread_buffer": 19.732719489550778, "total_difference": 1.4201792118042817 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -4.767280510449222, "combined": 44.92017921180428, "spread_buffer": 19.732719489550778, "total_difference": 1.4201792118042817 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -20.827500000000008, "combined": 45.17916666666667, "spread_buffer": 3.6724999999999923, "total_difference": 1.6791666666666671 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -20.827500000000008, "combined": 45.17916666666667, "spread_buffer": 3.6724999999999923, "total_difference": 1.6791666666666671 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401867930", "matchup": "Princeton Tigers at Wagner Seahawks", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Wagner Seahawks", "line": 24.5, "price": -104.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867930", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.883383+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.098483+00:00", "home_line": 24.5, "away_line": -24.5, "home_line_price": -104.0, "away_line_price": -119.0, "total": 43.5, "under_line": 43.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 1080.0, "away_ml": -3100.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 3.6724999999999923, "production_adjusted": 3.6724999999999923, "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.6724999999999923, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.62777777777778, 17.734343434343437 ], "directional_buffer": 15.606565656565657, "scenario_minimum": 15.606565656565657 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.84372986112675, 20.076449350677528 ], "directional_buffer": 19.732719489550778, "scenario_minimum": 19.732719489550778 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6724999999999923, "scenario_minimum": 3.6724999999999923 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6724999999999923, "scenario_minimum": 3.6724999999999923 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6724999999999923, "stressed_buffer": 0.6724999999999923 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6724999999999923, "stressed_buffer": 0.6724999999999923 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.00333333333334, 16.946666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 8.443333333333328, "stressed_buffer": 5.443333333333328 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.00333333333334, 16.946666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 22.65, 20.40833333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.43333333333334, 10.866666666666667 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.961666666666668, -3.461666666666668 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Staten+Island&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=40.5866&textField2=-74.1489&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Light and variable wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the morning.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401867930", "matchup": "Princeton Tigers at Wagner Seahawks", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 43.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867930", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.883383+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.098483+00:00", "home_line": 24.5, "away_line": -24.5, "home_line_price": -104.0, "away_line_price": -119.0, "total": 43.5, "under_line": 43.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 1080.0, "away_ml": -3100.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 1.6791666666666671, "production_adjusted": 1.6791666666666671, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.6791666666666671, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.62777777777778, 17.734343434343437 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8621212121212167, "scenario_minimum": 0.8621212121212167 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.84372986112675, 20.076449350677528 ], "directional_buffer": 1.4201792118042817, "scenario_minimum": 1.4201792118042817 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6791666666666671, "scenario_minimum": 1.6791666666666671 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6791666666666671, "scenario_minimum": 1.6791666666666671 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6791666666666671, "stressed_buffer": -1.3208333333333329 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6791666666666671, "stressed_buffer": -1.3208333333333329 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.00333333333334, 16.946666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 6.450000000000003, "stressed_buffer": 3.450000000000003 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.00333333333334, 16.946666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 22.65, 20.40833333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.43333333333334, 10.866666666666667 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.961666666666668, -3.461666666666668 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Staten+Island&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=40.5866&textField2=-74.1489&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Light and variable wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the morning.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -20.827500000000008, "combined": 45.17916666666667, "spread_buffer": 3.6724999999999923, "total_difference": 1.6791666666666671 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -20.827500000000008, "combined": 45.17916666666667, "spread_buffer": 3.6724999999999923, "total_difference": 1.6791666666666671 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401867930", "matchup": "Princeton Tigers at Wagner Seahawks", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Wagner Seahawks", "line": 24.5, "price": -104.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867930", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.883383+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.098483+00:00", "home_line": 24.5, "away_line": -24.5, "home_line_price": -104.0, "away_line_price": -119.0, "total": 43.5, "under_line": 43.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 1080.0, "away_ml": -3100.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 3.6724999999999923, "production_adjusted": 3.6724999999999923, "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.6724999999999923, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.62777777777778, 17.734343434343437 ], "directional_buffer": 15.606565656565657, "scenario_minimum": 15.606565656565657 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.84372986112675, 20.076449350677528 ], "directional_buffer": 19.732719489550778, "scenario_minimum": 19.732719489550778 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6724999999999923, "scenario_minimum": 3.6724999999999923 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6724999999999923, "scenario_minimum": 3.6724999999999923 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6724999999999923, "stressed_buffer": 0.6724999999999923 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6724999999999923, "stressed_buffer": 0.6724999999999923 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.00333333333334, 16.946666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 8.443333333333328, "stressed_buffer": 5.443333333333328 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.00333333333334, 16.946666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 22.65, 20.40833333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.43333333333334, 10.866666666666667 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.961666666666668, -3.461666666666668 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Staten+Island&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=40.5866&textField2=-74.1489&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Light and variable wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the morning.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401867930", "matchup": "Princeton Tigers at Wagner Seahawks", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 43.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867930", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.883383+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.098483+00:00", "home_line": 24.5, "away_line": -24.5, "home_line_price": -104.0, "away_line_price": -119.0, "total": 43.5, "under_line": 43.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 1080.0, "away_ml": -3100.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 1.6791666666666671, "production_adjusted": 1.6791666666666671, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.6791666666666671, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.62777777777778, 17.734343434343437 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8621212121212167, "scenario_minimum": 0.8621212121212167 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.84372986112675, 20.076449350677528 ], "directional_buffer": 1.4201792118042817, "scenario_minimum": 1.4201792118042817 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6791666666666671, "scenario_minimum": 1.6791666666666671 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6791666666666671, "scenario_minimum": 1.6791666666666671 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6791666666666671, "stressed_buffer": -1.3208333333333329 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6791666666666671, "stressed_buffer": -1.3208333333333329 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.00333333333334, 16.946666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 6.450000000000003, "stressed_buffer": 3.450000000000003 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.00333333333334, 16.946666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 22.65, 20.40833333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.43333333333334, 10.866666666666667 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.961666666666668, -3.461666666666668 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Staten+Island&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=40.5866&textField2=-74.1489&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Light and variable wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the morning.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401867987", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867987", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3658", "fullName": "Buccaneer Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Charleston", "state": "SC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2569", "away_name": "South Carolina State Bulldogs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2127", "home_name": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.589015151515156, 20.761363636363637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.589015151515156, 20.761363636363637 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.589015151515156, 20.761363636363637 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 31.75, 26.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 44.333333333333336, 14.166666666666666 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 16.583333333333332, 24.0 ], "current_rates": [ 23.6, 16.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 21.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 21.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.603851543846655, 23.821473725990707 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.603851543846655, 23.821473725990707 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.603851543846655, 23.821473725990707 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 24.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 24.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 26.333333333333332, "margin": 5.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767415", "401752691", "401767388", "401762470", "401767163", "401767436", "401767274", "401767408", "401767401", "401767396", "401767414", "401767349" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 44.333333333333336, "pa": 14.166666666666666, "margin": 30.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401867982", "401867939", "401867983", "401867984", "401867985", "401867986" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.583333333333332, "pa": 24.0, "margin": -7.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752679", "401761597", "401767161", "401767162", "401767163", "401767164", "401767165", "401767166", "401767167", "401767168", "401767169", "401767170" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.6, "pa": 16.6, "margin": 7.0, "event_ids": [ "401868169", "401868170", "401868171", "401868172", "401868173" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.875, 21.458333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.46666666666667, 18.883333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.6000000000000014, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.0, 18.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.0, 18.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 26.333333333333332, "margin": 5.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767415", "401752691", "401767388", "401762470", "401767163", "401767436", "401767274", "401767408", "401767401", "401767396", "401767414", "401767349" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 44.333333333333336, "pa": 14.166666666666666, "margin": 30.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401867982", "401867939", "401867983", "401867984", "401867985", "401867986" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.583333333333332, "pa": 24.0, "margin": -7.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752679", "401761597", "401767161", "401767162", "401767163", "401767164", "401767165", "401767166", "401767167", "401767168", "401767169", "401767170" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.6, "pa": 16.6, "margin": 7.0, "event_ids": [ "401868169", "401868170", "401868171", "401868172", "401868173" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.875, 21.458333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.46666666666667, 18.883333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.6000000000000014, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.0, 18.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.0, 18.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401867987", "matchup": "South Carolina State Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers: QB Lek Powell/Jared Echols, RB Harry Smalls/Sharode Richardson/Brandon Musch, WR Quay Kindell/Mekhi Campfield/Maxwell Warren, TE Jackson Moseley; South Carolina State Bulldogs: QB Keely Watson/Ronnie Robinson, RB Mason Pickett-Hicks/Josh Shaw/Tyler Smith, WR Malaqhi Jones/Shamontae Burgess/DJ Maultsby, TE Martavious Collins", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.35833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.875, 21.458333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.46666666666667, 18.883333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.6000000000000014, -2.1000000000000014 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 77, "def_drives": 80, "off_points_proxy": 245, "def_points_proxy": 84, "off_plays": 486, "off_yards": 3566, "def_plays": 491, "def_yards": 2370, "early_plays": 356, "early_yards": 2780, "explosive_plays": 51, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867939", "401867982", "401867983", "401867984", "401867985", "401867986" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 3.1818181818181817, "def_ppd": 1.05, "off_ypp": 7.337448559670782, "def_ypp": 4.826883910386965, "early_down_ypp": 7.808988764044944 }, "home": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 63, "off_points_proxy": 98, "def_points_proxy": 83, "off_plays": 384, "off_yards": 1832, "def_plays": 438, "def_yards": 2243, "early_plays": 257, "early_yards": 1236, "explosive_plays": 31, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868169", "401868170", "401868171", "401868172", "401868173" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.6065573770491803, "def_ppd": 1.3174603174603174, "off_ypp": 4.770833333333333, "def_ypp": 5.121004566210046, "early_down_ypp": 4.809338521400778 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2127", "teamName": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868173", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Buccaneer Field", "address": { "city": "Charleston", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29406", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2127", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2127", "displayName": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers" } }, { "id": "2241", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 12.0, "displayValue": "12" }, "team": { "id": "2241", "displayName": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://csusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2569", "teamName": "South Carolina State Bulldogs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867986", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "The Citadel Bulldogs at South Carolina State Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Oliver C. Dawson Stadium", "address": { "city": "Orangeburg", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29115", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2569", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2569", "displayName": "South Carolina State Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2643", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "2643", "displayName": "The Citadel Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://scsuathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Charleston. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.202951+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. High near 81. Southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 4am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Southeast wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867987", "matchup": "South Carolina State Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://csusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1", "https://scsuathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401867987", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867987", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3658", "fullName": "Buccaneer Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Charleston", "state": "SC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2569", "away_name": "South Carolina State Bulldogs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2127", "home_name": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 26.333333333333332, "margin": 5.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767415", "401752691", "401767388", "401762470", "401767163", "401767436", "401767274", "401767408", "401767401", "401767396", "401767414", "401767349" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 44.333333333333336, "pa": 14.166666666666666, "margin": 30.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401867982", "401867939", "401867983", "401867984", "401867985", "401867986" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.583333333333332, "pa": 24.0, "margin": -7.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752679", "401761597", "401767161", "401767162", "401767163", "401767164", "401767165", "401767166", "401767167", "401767168", "401767169", "401767170" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.6, "pa": 16.6, "margin": 7.0, "event_ids": [ "401868169", "401868170", "401868171", "401868172", "401868173" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.875, 21.458333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.46666666666667, 18.883333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.6000000000000014, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 12.770833333333336, 52.770833333333336 ], "home": [ 0, 38.07083333333333 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401867987", "matchup": "South Carolina State Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3658", "guid": "c6e64864-1e52-3a4e-8eee-4ea949515124", "fullName": "Buccaneer Field", "address": { "city": "Charleston", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29406", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2127", "teamName": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868173", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Buccaneer Field", "address": { "city": "Charleston", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29406", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2127", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2127", "displayName": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers" } }, { "id": "2241", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 12.0, "displayValue": "12" }, "team": { "id": "2241", "displayName": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://csusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2569", "teamName": "South Carolina State Bulldogs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867986", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "The Citadel Bulldogs at South Carolina State Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Oliver C. Dawson Stadium", "address": { "city": "Orangeburg", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29115", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2569", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2569", "displayName": "South Carolina State Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2643", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "2643", "displayName": "The Citadel Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://scsuathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Charleston. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2127", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2569" ], "finding": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers: QB Lek Powell/Jared Echols, RB Harry Smalls/Sharode Richardson/Brandon Musch, WR Quay Kindell/Mekhi Campfield/Maxwell Warren, TE Jackson Moseley; South Carolina State Bulldogs: QB Keely Watson/Ronnie Robinson, RB Mason Pickett-Hicks/Josh Shaw/Tyler Smith, WR Malaqhi Jones/Shamontae Burgess/DJ Maultsby, TE Martavious Collins" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2127", "teamName": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868173", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Buccaneer Field", "address": { "city": "Charleston", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29406", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2127", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2127", "displayName": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers" } }, { "id": "2241", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 12.0, "displayValue": "12" }, "team": { "id": "2241", "displayName": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://csusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2569", "teamName": "South Carolina State Bulldogs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867986", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "The Citadel Bulldogs at South Carolina State Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Oliver C. Dawson Stadium", "address": { "city": "Orangeburg", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29115", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2569", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2569", "displayName": "South Carolina State Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2643", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "2643", "displayName": "The Citadel Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://scsuathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Charleston. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.202951+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. High near 81. Southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 4am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Southeast wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.35833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.875, 21.458333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.46666666666667, 18.883333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.6000000000000014, -2.1000000000000014 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "South Carolina State Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "market": { "id": "401867987", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867987", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.923129+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.148310+00:00", "home_line": 6.5, "away_line": -6.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 37.5, "under_line": 37.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 174.0, "away_ml": -221.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 6.5, "average_total": 37.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -7.827651515151519, "combined": 49.350378787878796, "spread_buffer": -1.3276515151515191, "total_difference": 11.850378787878796 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -7.827651515151519, "combined": 49.350378787878796, "spread_buffer": -1.3276515151515191, "total_difference": 11.850378787878796 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.7823778178559486, "combined": 48.42532526983736, "spread_buffer": 5.717622182144051, "total_difference": 10.925325269837359 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.7823778178559486, "combined": 48.42532526983736, "spread_buffer": 5.717622182144051, "total_difference": 10.925325269837359 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -14.700000000000003, "combined": 50.84166666666667, "spread_buffer": -8.200000000000003, "total_difference": 13.341666666666669 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -14.700000000000003, "combined": 50.84166666666667, "spread_buffer": -8.200000000000003, "total_difference": 13.341666666666669 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401867987", "matchup": "South Carolina State Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "South Carolina State Bulldogs", "line": -6.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867987", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.923129+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.148310+00:00", "home_line": 6.5, "away_line": -6.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 37.5, "under_line": 37.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 174.0, "away_ml": -221.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 8.200000000000003, "production_adjusted": 8.200000000000003, "minimum_all_scenarios": 6.9125000000000085, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.589015151515156, 20.761363636363637 ], "directional_buffer": 1.3276515151515191, "scenario_minimum": 1.3276515151515191 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.603851543846655, 23.821473725990707 ], "directional_buffer": -5.717622182144051, "scenario_minimum": -5.717622182144051 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 8.200000000000003, "scenario_minimum": 8.200000000000003 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 8.200000000000003, "scenario_minimum": 8.200000000000003 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.358333333333327 ], "directional_buffer": 6.9125000000000085, "stressed_buffer": 3.9125000000000085 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 8.200000000000003, "stressed_buffer": 5.200000000000003 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.358333333333327 ], "directional_buffer": 6.9125000000000085, "stressed_buffer": 3.9125000000000085 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.35833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.875, 21.458333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.46666666666667, 18.883333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.6000000000000014, -2.1000000000000014 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "severe_weather_regime", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Official NWS Flood Watch through late tonight describes widespread1\u20133inch rainfall, locally3\u20136inches and up to2inches/hour rain bands. Game-window/field effect is unestimated and not demonstrated bounded by the ordinary3-point stress. 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No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401867987", "matchup": "South Carolina State Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 37.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867987", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.923129+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.148310+00:00", "home_line": 6.5, "away_line": -6.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 37.5, "under_line": 37.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 174.0, "away_ml": -221.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 13.341666666666669, "production_adjusted": 13.341666666666669, "minimum_all_scenarios": 13.341666666666669, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.589015151515156, 20.761363636363637 ], "directional_buffer": 11.850378787878796, "scenario_minimum": 11.850378787878796 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.603851543846655, 23.821473725990707 ], "directional_buffer": 10.925325269837359, "scenario_minimum": 10.925325269837359 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.341666666666669, "scenario_minimum": 13.341666666666669 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.341666666666669, "scenario_minimum": 13.341666666666669 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.341666666666669, "stressed_buffer": 10.341666666666669 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.341666666666669, "stressed_buffer": 10.341666666666669 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.358333333333327 ], "directional_buffer": 14.629166666666663, "stressed_buffer": 11.629166666666663 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.35833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Preserve numerical pass but withhold publication until this specific risk is resolved.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SCZ150&warncounty=SCC019&firewxzone=SCZ150&local_place1=Charleston SC&product1=Flood+Watch&lat=32.7852&lon=-79.994", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:50:30.569471+00:00", "numericAdjustment": null, "notClaimed": "No assertion that the stadium is flooded or game canceled; coastal/flash warnings are area/time-specific." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. 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No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -14.700000000000003, "combined": 50.84166666666667, "spread_buffer": -8.200000000000003, "total_difference": 13.341666666666669 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -14.700000000000003, "combined": 50.84166666666667, "spread_buffer": -8.200000000000003, "total_difference": 13.341666666666669 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401867987", "matchup": "South Carolina State Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "South Carolina State Bulldogs", "line": -6.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867987", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.923129+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.148310+00:00", "home_line": 6.5, "away_line": -6.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 37.5, "under_line": 37.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 174.0, "away_ml": -221.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 8.200000000000003, "production_adjusted": 8.200000000000003, "minimum_all_scenarios": 6.9125000000000085, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.589015151515156, 20.761363636363637 ], "directional_buffer": 1.3276515151515191, "scenario_minimum": 1.3276515151515191 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.603851543846655, 23.821473725990707 ], "directional_buffer": -5.717622182144051, "scenario_minimum": -5.717622182144051 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 8.200000000000003, "scenario_minimum": 8.200000000000003 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 8.200000000000003, "scenario_minimum": 8.200000000000003 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.358333333333327 ], "directional_buffer": 6.9125000000000085, "stressed_buffer": 3.9125000000000085 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 8.200000000000003, "stressed_buffer": 5.200000000000003 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.358333333333327 ], "directional_buffer": 6.9125000000000085, "stressed_buffer": 3.9125000000000085 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.35833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.875, 21.458333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.46666666666667, 18.883333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.6000000000000014, -2.1000000000000014 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "severe_weather_regime", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Official NWS Flood Watch through late tonight describes widespread1\u20133inch rainfall, locally3\u20136inches and up to2inches/hour rain bands. Game-window/field effect is unestimated and not demonstrated bounded by the ordinary3-point stress. 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High near 81. Southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 29, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401867987", "matchup": "South Carolina State Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 37.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867987", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.923129+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.148310+00:00", "home_line": 6.5, "away_line": -6.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 37.5, "under_line": 37.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 174.0, "away_ml": -221.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 13.341666666666669, "production_adjusted": 13.341666666666669, "minimum_all_scenarios": 13.341666666666669, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.589015151515156, 20.761363636363637 ], "directional_buffer": 11.850378787878796, "scenario_minimum": 11.850378787878796 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.603851543846655, 23.821473725990707 ], "directional_buffer": 10.925325269837359, "scenario_minimum": 10.925325269837359 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.341666666666669, "scenario_minimum": 13.341666666666669 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.341666666666669, "scenario_minimum": 13.341666666666669 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.341666666666669, "stressed_buffer": 10.341666666666669 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.341666666666669, "stressed_buffer": 10.341666666666669 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.358333333333327 ], "directional_buffer": 14.629166666666663, "stressed_buffer": 11.629166666666663 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.35833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.875, 21.458333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.46666666666667, 18.883333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.6000000000000014, -2.1000000000000014 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "severe_weather_regime", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Official NWS Flood Watch through late tonight describes widespread1\u20133inch rainfall, locally3\u20136inches and up to2inches/hour rain bands. Game-window/field effect is unestimated and not demonstrated bounded by the ordinary3-point stress. Preserve numerical pass but withhold publication until this specific risk is resolved.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SCZ150&warncounty=SCC019&firewxzone=SCZ150&local_place1=Charleston SC&product1=Flood+Watch&lat=32.7852&lon=-79.994", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:50:30.569471+00:00", "numericAdjustment": null, "notClaimed": "No assertion that the stadium is flooded or game canceled; coastal/flash warnings are area/time-specific." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. High near 81. Southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 29, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401868221", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868221", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3627", "fullName": "Bailey Memorial Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Clinton", "state": "SC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2166", "away_name": "Davidson Wildcats", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2506", "home_name": "Presbyterian Blue Hose", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.867424242424242, 35.384469696969695 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.867424242424242, 35.384469696969695 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.867424242424242, 35.384469696969695 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 18.166666666666668, 39.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 22.666666666666668, 38.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 34.416666666666664, 16.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 25.2, 44.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.849575476903546, 41.781386981504774 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.849575476903546, 41.781386981504774 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.849575476903546, 41.781386981504774 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18.0, 42.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.0, 42.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 39.583333333333336, "margin": -21.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767602", "401767149", "401767232", "401767603", "401767604", "401767605", "401767606", "401767607", "401767608", "401767609", "401767610", "401767611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 38.5, "margin": -15.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401896384", "401866626", "401870822", "401868397", "401868219", "401868220" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 34.416666666666664, "pa": 16.166666666666668, "margin": 18.249999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401767572", "401767565", "401767639", "401767640", "401767636", "401767596", "401767641", "401767617", "401767642", "401767609", "401767643", "401767633" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.2, "pa": 44.0, "margin": -18.8, "event_ids": [ "401868273", "401868274", "401868275", "401868263", "401868276" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 37.0 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.333333333333336, 31.85 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.67, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 39.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 39.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 39.583333333333336, "margin": -21.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767602", "401767149", "401767232", "401767603", "401767604", "401767605", "401767606", "401767607", "401767608", "401767609", "401767610", "401767611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 38.5, "margin": -15.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401896384", "401866626", "401870822", "401868397", "401868219", "401868220" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 34.416666666666664, "pa": 16.166666666666668, "margin": 18.249999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401767572", "401767565", "401767639", "401767640", "401767636", "401767596", "401767641", "401767617", "401767642", "401767609", "401767643", "401767633" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.2, "pa": 44.0, "margin": -18.8, "event_ids": [ "401868273", "401868274", "401868275", "401868263", "401868276" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 37.0 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.333333333333336, 31.85 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.67, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 39.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 39.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868221", "matchup": "Davidson Wildcats at Presbyterian Blue Hose", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Presbyterian Blue Hose: QB Landon Sharpe, RB Damion Moate/Jackson Burleson/Tony O'Banner, WR Caleb Johnson/Anton Smith/Brice Johnson, TE Ethan Medley/Sean McNamara; Davidson Wildcats: QB Casey Bullock/Jim Franklin, RB Brodey Berg, WR Jacary Lightsey/Andrew Frazier/AJ Adams, TE Caden Glenn", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 29.663333333333334, 39.595 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 37.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.333333333333336, 31.85 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.6700000000000004, 5.17 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 75, "def_drives": 73, "off_points_proxy": 132, "def_points_proxy": 211, "off_plays": 555, "off_yards": 3042, "def_plays": 501, "def_yards": 3287, "early_plays": 391, "early_yards": 2061, "explosive_plays": 47, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866626", "401868219", "401868220", "401868397", "401870822", "401896384" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.76, "def_ppd": 2.8904109589041096, "off_ypp": 5.481081081081081, "def_ypp": 6.560878243512974, "early_down_ypp": 5.271099744245524 }, "home": { "off_drives": 64, "def_drives": 63, "off_points_proxy": 128, "def_points_proxy": 215, "off_plays": 451, "off_yards": 2466, "def_plays": 449, "def_yards": 3347, "early_plays": 338, "early_yards": 1662, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868263", "401868273", "401868274", "401868275", "401868276" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.0, "def_ppd": 3.4126984126984126, "off_ypp": 5.467849223946785, "def_ypp": 7.4543429844097995, "early_down_ypp": 4.9171597633136095 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2506", "teamName": "Presbyterian Blue Hose", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868276", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "St. Thomas Tommies at Presbyterian Blue Hose", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Bailey Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clinton", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29325", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2506", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 55.0, "displayValue": "55" }, "team": { "id": "2506", "displayName": "Presbyterian Blue Hose" } }, { "id": "2900", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2900", "displayName": "St. Thomas Tommies" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gobluehose.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2166", "teamName": "Davidson Wildcats", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868220", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Davidson Wildcats at San Diego Toreros", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Torero Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Diego", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "92111", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "301", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 63.0, "displayValue": "63" }, "team": { "id": "301", "displayName": "San Diego Toreros" } }, { "id": "2166", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2166", "displayName": "Davidson Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://davidsonwildcats.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Clinton. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clinton&state=SC&site=GSP&textField1=34.4778&textField2=-81.8661&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.324239+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog after 7am. High near 70. Northeast wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Low around 66. East wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868221", "matchup": "Davidson Wildcats at Presbyterian Blue Hose", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://davidsonwildcats.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clinton&state=SC&site=GSP&textField1=34.4778&textField2=-81.8661&e=0", "https://gobluehose.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868221", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868221", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3627", "fullName": "Bailey Memorial Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Clinton", "state": "SC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2166", "away_name": "Davidson Wildcats", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2506", "home_name": "Presbyterian Blue Hose", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 39.583333333333336, "margin": -21.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767602", "401767149", "401767232", "401767603", "401767604", "401767605", "401767606", "401767607", "401767608", "401767609", "401767610", "401767611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 38.5, "margin": -15.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401896384", "401866626", "401870822", "401868397", "401868219", "401868220" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 34.416666666666664, "pa": 16.166666666666668, "margin": 18.249999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401767572", "401767565", "401767639", "401767640", "401767636", "401767596", "401767641", "401767617", "401767642", "401767609", "401767643", "401767633" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.2, "pa": 44.0, "margin": -18.8, "event_ids": [ "401868273", "401868274", "401868275", "401868263", "401868276" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 37.0 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.333333333333336, 31.85 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.67, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.5799999999999983, 41.58 ], "home": [ 19.595, 59.595 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868221", "matchup": "Davidson Wildcats at Presbyterian Blue Hose", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3627", "guid": "efce7d5a-65ca-3d96-a864-d7e24bd1df4c", "fullName": "Bailey Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clinton", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29325", "country": "USA" }, "grass": true, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2506", "teamName": "Presbyterian Blue Hose", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868276", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "St. Thomas Tommies at Presbyterian Blue Hose", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Bailey Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clinton", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29325", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2506", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 55.0, "displayValue": "55" }, "team": { "id": "2506", "displayName": "Presbyterian Blue Hose" } }, { "id": "2900", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2900", "displayName": "St. Thomas Tommies" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gobluehose.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", 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Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2506", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2166" ], "finding": "Presbyterian Blue Hose: QB Landon Sharpe, RB Damion Moate/Jackson Burleson/Tony O'Banner, WR Caleb Johnson/Anton Smith/Brice Johnson, TE Ethan Medley/Sean McNamara; Davidson Wildcats: QB Casey Bullock/Jim Franklin, RB Brodey Berg, WR Jacary Lightsey/Andrew Frazier/AJ Adams, TE Caden Glenn" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. 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No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 18.015, "combined": 61.175, "spread_buffer": 2.5150000000000006, "total_difference": 3.674999999999997 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 18.015, "combined": 61.175, "spread_buffer": 2.5150000000000006, "total_difference": 3.674999999999997 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868221", "matchup": "Davidson Wildcats at Presbyterian Blue Hose", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Presbyterian Blue Hose", "line": -15.5, "price": -113.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868221", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.923129+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.126006+00:00", "home_line": -15.5, "away_line": 15.5, "home_line_price": -113.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -870.0, "away_ml": 539.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 2.5150000000000006, "production_adjusted": 2.5150000000000006, "minimum_all_scenarios": -5.568333333333335, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.867424242424242, 35.384469696969695 ], "directional_buffer": -3.9829545454545467, "scenario_minimum": -3.9829545454545467 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.849575476903546, 41.781386981504774 ], "directional_buffer": 8.431811504601228, "scenario_minimum": 8.431811504601228 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "directional_buffer": 2.5150000000000006, "scenario_minimum": 2.5150000000000006 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "directional_buffer": 2.5150000000000006, "scenario_minimum": 2.5150000000000006 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.663333333333334, 39.595 ], "directional_buffer": -5.568333333333335, "stressed_buffer": -8.568333333333335 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "directional_buffer": 2.5150000000000006, "stressed_buffer": -0.48499999999999943 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.663333333333334, 39.595 ], "directional_buffer": -5.568333333333335, "stressed_buffer": -8.568333333333335 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 29.663333333333334, 39.595 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 37.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.333333333333336, 31.85 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.6700000000000004, 5.17 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clinton&state=SC&site=GSP&textField1=34.4778&textField2=-81.8661&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clinton&state=SC&site=GSP&textField1=34.4778&textField2=-81.8661&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog after 7am. High near 70. Northeast wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 31, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868221", "matchup": "Davidson Wildcats at Presbyterian Blue Hose", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 57.5, "price": -113.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868221", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.923129+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.126006+00:00", "home_line": -15.5, "away_line": 15.5, "home_line_price": -113.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -870.0, "away_ml": 539.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 3.674999999999997, "production_adjusted": 3.674999999999997, "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.674999999999997, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.867424242424242, 35.384469696969695 ], "directional_buffer": 1.7518939393939377, "scenario_minimum": 1.7518939393939377 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.849575476903546, 41.781386981504774 ], "directional_buffer": 2.1309624584083195, "scenario_minimum": 2.1309624584083195 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "directional_buffer": 3.674999999999997, "scenario_minimum": 3.674999999999997 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "directional_buffer": 3.674999999999997, "scenario_minimum": 3.674999999999997 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "directional_buffer": 3.674999999999997, "stressed_buffer": 0.6749999999999972 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "directional_buffer": 3.674999999999997, "stressed_buffer": 0.6749999999999972 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.663333333333334, 39.595 ], "directional_buffer": 11.758333333333326, "stressed_buffer": 8.758333333333326 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 29.663333333333334, 39.595 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 37.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.333333333333336, 31.85 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.6700000000000004, 5.17 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clinton&state=SC&site=GSP&textField1=34.4778&textField2=-81.8661&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clinton&state=SC&site=GSP&textField1=34.4778&textField2=-81.8661&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog after 7am. High near 70. Northeast wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 31, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401868229", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868229", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3988", "fullName": "Welcome Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Dayton", "state": "OH", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2413", "away_name": "Morehead State Eagles", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2168", "home_name": "Dayton Flyers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.554545454545455, 33.059090909090905 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.554545454545455, 33.059090909090905 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.554545454545455, 33.059090909090905 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.166666666666668, 29.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 25.4, 45.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 11, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 27.818181818181817, 17.363636363636363 ], "current_rates": [ 28.0, 17.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 33.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 33.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 15.208292692995853, 36.54520277855203 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.208292692995853, 36.54520277855203 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.208292692995853, 36.54520277855203 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 15.0, 36.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15.0, 36.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.166666666666668, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -8.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767634", "401767437", "401767248", "401767635", "401767636", "401767615", "401767637", "401767630", "401767638", "401767608", "401767599", "401767625" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.4, "pa": 45.0, "margin": -19.6, "event_ids": [ "401896383", "401868269", "401868061", "401868205", "401868270" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 27.818181818181817, "pa": 17.363636363636363, "margin": 10.454545454545453, "event_ids": [ "401767171", "401767612", "401767613", "401767614", "401767615", "401767616", "401767597", "401767617", "401767618", "401767619", "401767611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 28.0, "pa": 17.75, "margin": 10.25, "event_ids": [ "401868792", "401868227", "401868142", "401868228" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.265151515151516, 28.825757575757574 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.575, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.897121212121212, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 15.5, 39.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15.5, 39.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.166666666666668, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -8.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767634", "401767437", "401767248", "401767635", "401767636", "401767615", "401767637", "401767630", "401767638", "401767608", "401767599", "401767625" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.4, "pa": 45.0, "margin": -19.6, "event_ids": [ "401896383", "401868269", "401868061", "401868205", "401868270" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 27.818181818181817, "pa": 17.363636363636363, "margin": 10.454545454545453, "event_ids": [ "401767171", "401767612", "401767613", "401767614", "401767615", "401767616", "401767597", "401767617", "401767618", "401767619", "401767611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 28.0, "pa": 17.75, "margin": 10.25, "event_ids": [ "401868792", "401868227", "401868142", "401868228" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.265151515151516, 28.825757575757574 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.575, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.897121212121212, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 15.5, 39.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15.5, 39.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868229", "matchup": "Morehead State Eagles at Dayton Flyers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Dayton Flyers: QB Bryce Schondelmyer, RB Luke Hansen/Mason Hackett/Noah Spencer, WR Michael Mussari/Gavin Lochow/Ethan Thulin, TE Bryce Cowgill/Carson Labensky; Morehead State Eagles: QB David Parsons/Bryce Patterson, RB Jackson Lanier/Blake Fisher/Ezekiel Pour, WR Anthony Ice/Riley Purcell/Cannon Dinger, TE no primary receiver established", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 16.677878787878786, 39.06 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 19.265151515151516, 28.825757575757574 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.575, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.897121212121212, 6.397121212121212 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 72, "def_drives": 67, "off_points_proxy": 121, "def_points_proxy": 197, "off_plays": 419, "off_yards": 2646, "def_plays": 434, "def_yards": 3287, "early_plays": 301, "early_yards": 1943, "explosive_plays": 41, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868061", "401868205", "401868269", "401868270", "401896383" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.6805555555555556, "def_ppd": 2.9402985074626864, "off_ypp": 6.315035799522673, "def_ypp": 7.573732718894009, "early_down_ypp": 6.45514950166113 }, "home": { "off_drives": 50, "def_drives": 52, "off_points_proxy": 103, "def_points_proxy": 73, "off_plays": 331, "off_yards": 1857, "def_plays": 329, "def_yards": 1952, "early_plays": 234, "early_yards": 1287, "explosive_plays": 26, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868142", "401868227", "401868228", "401868792" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.06, "def_ppd": 1.4038461538461537, "off_ypp": 5.610271903323262, "def_ypp": 5.933130699088146, "early_down_ypp": 5.5 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2168", "teamName": "Dayton Flyers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868228", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Dayton Flyers at Drake Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Drake Stadium (IA)", "address": { "city": "Des Moines", "state": "IA", "zipCode": "50311", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2181", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2181", "displayName": "Drake Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2168", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 22.0, "displayValue": "22" }, "team": { "id": "2168", "displayName": "Dayton Flyers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://daytonflyers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2413", "teamName": "Morehead State Eagles", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868270", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Valparaiso Beacons at Morehead State Eagles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Phil Simms Stadium", "address": { "city": "Morehead", "state": "KY", "zipCode": "40351", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2413", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2413", "displayName": "Morehead State Eagles" } }, { "id": "2674", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 37.0, "displayValue": "37" }, "team": { "id": "2674", "displayName": "Valparaiso Beacons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://msueagles.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Dayton. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dayton&state=OH&site=ILN&textField1=39.7791&textField2=-84.1974&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.324239+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Southeast wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5am. Low around 58. East wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868229", "matchup": "Morehead State Eagles at Dayton Flyers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://daytonflyers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dayton&state=OH&site=ILN&textField1=39.7791&textField2=-84.1974&e=1", "https://msueagles.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868229", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868229", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3988", "fullName": "Welcome Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Dayton", "state": "OH", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2413", "away_name": "Morehead State Eagles", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2168", "home_name": "Dayton Flyers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.166666666666668, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -8.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767634", "401767437", "401767248", "401767635", "401767636", "401767615", "401767637", "401767630", "401767638", "401767608", "401767599", "401767625" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.4, "pa": 45.0, "margin": -19.6, "event_ids": [ "401896383", "401868269", "401868061", "401868205", "401868270" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 27.818181818181817, "pa": 17.363636363636363, "margin": 10.454545454545453, "event_ids": [ "401767171", "401767612", "401767613", "401767614", "401767615", "401767616", "401767597", "401767617", "401767618", "401767619", "401767611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 28.0, "pa": 17.75, "margin": 10.25, "event_ids": [ "401868792", "401868227", "401868142", "401868228" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.265151515151516, 28.825757575757574 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.575, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.897121212121212, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0, 35.522954545454546 ], "home": [ 19.060000000000002, 59.06 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868229", "matchup": "Morehead State Eagles at Dayton Flyers", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3988", "guid": "82cabca2-f94a-3d15-aa13-74d2d56893bd", "fullName": "Welcome Stadium", "address": { "city": "Dayton", "state": "OH", "zipCode": "45417", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2168", "teamName": "Dayton Flyers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868228", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Dayton Flyers at Drake Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Drake Stadium (IA)", "address": { "city": "Des Moines", "state": "IA", "zipCode": "50311", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2181", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2181", "displayName": "Drake Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2168", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 22.0, "displayValue": "22" }, "team": { "id": "2168", "displayName": "Dayton Flyers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://daytonflyers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2413", "teamName": "Morehead State Eagles", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868270", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Valparaiso Beacons at Morehead State Eagles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Phil Simms Stadium", "address": { "city": "Morehead", "state": "KY", "zipCode": "40351", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2413", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2413", "displayName": "Morehead State Eagles" } }, { "id": "2674", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 37.0, "displayValue": "37" }, "team": { "id": "2674", "displayName": "Valparaiso Beacons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://msueagles.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Dayton. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2168", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2413" ], "finding": "Dayton Flyers: QB Bryce Schondelmyer, RB Luke Hansen/Mason Hackett/Noah Spencer, WR Michael Mussari/Gavin Lochow/Ethan Thulin, TE Bryce Cowgill/Carson Labensky; Morehead State Eagles: QB David Parsons/Bryce Patterson, RB Jackson Lanier/Blake Fisher/Ezekiel Pour, WR Anthony Ice/Riley Purcell/Cannon Dinger, TE no primary receiver established" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2168", "teamName": "Dayton Flyers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868228", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Dayton Flyers at Drake Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Drake Stadium (IA)", "address": { "city": "Des Moines", "state": "IA", "zipCode": "50311", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2181", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2181", "displayName": "Drake Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2168", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 22.0, "displayValue": "22" }, "team": { "id": "2168", "displayName": "Dayton Flyers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://daytonflyers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2413", "teamName": "Morehead State Eagles", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868270", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Valparaiso Beacons at Morehead State Eagles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Phil Simms Stadium", "address": { "city": "Morehead", "state": "KY", "zipCode": "40351", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2413", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2413", "displayName": "Morehead State Eagles" } }, { "id": "2674", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 37.0, "displayValue": "37" }, "team": { "id": "2674", "displayName": "Valparaiso Beacons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://msueagles.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Dayton. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dayton&state=OH&site=ILN&textField1=39.7791&textField2=-84.1974&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.324239+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Southeast wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5am. Low around 58. East wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 16.677878787878786, 39.06 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 19.265151515151516, 28.825757575757574 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.575, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.897121212121212, 6.397121212121212 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Morehead State Eagles at Dayton Flyers", "market": { "id": "401868229", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868229", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.934899+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.157491+00:00", "home_line": -20.5, "away_line": 20.5, "home_line_price": -106.0, "away_line_price": -118.0, "total": 54.5, "under_line": 54.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -1860.0, "away_ml": 860.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -20.5, "average_total": 54.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 13.50454545454545, "combined": 52.61363636363636, "spread_buffer": -6.99545454545455, "total_difference": -1.8863636363636402 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 13.50454545454545, "combined": 52.61363636363636, "spread_buffer": -6.99545454545455, "total_difference": -1.8863636363636402 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 21.336910085556177, "combined": 51.753495471547886, "spread_buffer": 0.8369100855561769, "total_difference": -2.746504528452114 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 21.336910085556177, "combined": 51.753495471547886, "spread_buffer": 0.8369100855561769, "total_difference": -2.746504528452114 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 23.537045454545456, "combined": 54.58295454545455, "spread_buffer": 3.0370454545454564, "total_difference": 0.08295454545454817 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 23.537045454545456, "combined": 54.58295454545455, "spread_buffer": 3.0370454545454564, "total_difference": 0.08295454545454817 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868229", "matchup": "Morehead State Eagles at Dayton Flyers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Dayton Flyers", "line": -20.5, "price": -106.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868229", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.934899+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.157491+00:00", "home_line": -20.5, "away_line": 20.5, "home_line_price": -106.0, "away_line_price": -118.0, "total": 54.5, "under_line": 54.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -1860.0, "away_ml": 860.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 3.0370454545454564, "production_adjusted": 3.0370454545454564, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.8821212121212127, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.554545454545455, 33.059090909090905 ], "directional_buffer": -6.99545454545455, "scenario_minimum": -6.99545454545455 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.208292692995853, 36.54520277855203 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8369100855561769, "scenario_minimum": 0.8369100855561769 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "directional_buffer": 3.0370454545454564, "scenario_minimum": 3.0370454545454564 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "directional_buffer": 3.0370454545454564, "scenario_minimum": 3.0370454545454564 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 16.67787878787879, 39.06 ], "directional_buffer": 1.8821212121212127, "stressed_buffer": -1.1178787878787873 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "directional_buffer": 3.0370454545454564, "stressed_buffer": 0.03704545454545638 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 16.67787878787879, 39.06 ], "directional_buffer": 1.8821212121212127, "stressed_buffer": -1.1178787878787873 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 16.677878787878786, 39.06 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.5, "pa": 28.833333333333332, "margin": 3.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767454", "401752692", "401767300", "401767151", "401767558", "401767559", "401767560", "401767532", "401767561", "401767562", "401767563", "401767564" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.5, "pa": 26.5, "margin": 6.0, "event_ids": [ "401866620", "401868345", "401858218", "401868242", "401868346", "401868339" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 26.833333333333332, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767509", "401767579", "401767202", "401767574", "401767530", "401767583", "401767584", "401767569", "401767585", "401752761", "401767586", "401767564" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.8, "pa": 33.4, "margin": -9.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401868394", "401862694", "401868171", "401868338", "401867986" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.666666666666664, 24.666666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.95, 25.15 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.56, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34.0, 24.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 34.0, 24.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868347", "matchup": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers at The Citadel Bulldogs", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "The Citadel Bulldogs: QB Quentin Hayes/Nick Billoups, RB Gavin Garcia/Michael Lorino, WR Abijah Webb/Damir Abdullah/Braylon Knauth, TE Whit Hobgood; East Tennessee State Buccaneers: QB Mason Mims/Jadyn Davis, RB TJ Peyton/Jason Albritton/Jaiden Daniels, WR Tyler Griffin/Suderian Harrison, TE Charlie Browder/Khristian Means", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.86833333333333, 24.09 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.666666666666664, 24.666666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.95, 25.15 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.56, -1.06 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 68, "def_drives": 70, "off_points_proxy": 190, "def_points_proxy": 159, "off_plays": 514, "off_yards": 3299, "def_plays": 513, "def_yards": 2851, "early_plays": 372, "early_yards": 2280, "explosive_plays": 55, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858218", "401866620", "401868242", "401868339", "401868345", "401868346" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.7941176470588234, "def_ppd": 2.2714285714285714, "off_ypp": 6.418287937743191, "def_ypp": 5.557504873294347, "early_down_ypp": 6.129032258064516 }, "home": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 60, "off_points_proxy": 117, "def_points_proxy": 149, "off_plays": 414, "off_yards": 2202, "def_plays": 393, "def_yards": 2257, "early_plays": 293, "early_yards": 1332, "explosive_plays": 29, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862694", "401867986", "401868171", "401868338", "401868394" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.9830508474576272, "def_ppd": 2.4833333333333334, "off_ypp": 5.318840579710145, "def_ypp": 5.743002544529262, "early_down_ypp": 4.546075085324232 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2643", "teamName": "The Citadel Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867986", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "The Citadel Bulldogs at South Carolina State Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Oliver C. Dawson Stadium", "address": { "city": "Orangeburg", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29115", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2569", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2569", "displayName": "South Carolina State Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2643", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "2643", "displayName": "The Citadel Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://citadelsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2193", "teamName": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868339", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Chattanooga Mocs at East Tennessee State Buccaneers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "William B. Greene Jr. Stadium", "address": { "city": "Johnson City", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37604", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2193", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2193", "displayName": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers" } }, { "id": "236", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "236", "displayName": "Chattanooga Mocs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://etsubucs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Charleston. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.503806+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. High near 81. Southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 4am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Southeast wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868347", "matchup": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers at The Citadel Bulldogs", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://citadelsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://etsubucs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1" ], "tu": { "id": "401868347", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868347", "date": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3782", "fullName": "Johnson Hagood Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Charleston", "state": "SC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2193", "away_name": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2643", "home_name": "The Citadel Bulldogs", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 33.86833333333333, 23.848333333333333 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.5, "pa": 28.833333333333332, "margin": 3.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767454", "401752692", "401767300", "401767151", "401767558", "401767559", "401767560", "401767532", "401767561", "401767562", "401767563", "401767564" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.5, "pa": 26.5, "margin": 6.0, "event_ids": [ "401866620", "401868345", "401858218", "401868242", "401868346", "401868339" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 26.833333333333332, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767509", "401767579", "401767202", "401767574", "401767530", "401767583", "401767584", "401767569", "401767585", "401752761", "401767586", "401767564" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.8, "pa": 33.4, "margin": -9.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401868394", "401862694", "401868171", "401868338", "401867986" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.666666666666664, 24.666666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.95, 25.15 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.56, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 13.868333333333332, 53.86833333333333 ], "home": [ 3.8483333333333327, 43.84833333333333 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868347", "matchup": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers at The Citadel Bulldogs", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3782", "guid": "7a7234e0-a7dd-3936-bcca-2577fba94125", "fullName": "Johnson Hagood Stadium", "address": { "city": "Charleston", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29403", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2643", "teamName": "The Citadel Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867986", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "The Citadel Bulldogs at South Carolina State Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Oliver C. Dawson Stadium", "address": { "city": "Orangeburg", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29115", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2569", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2569", "displayName": "South Carolina State Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2643", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "2643", "displayName": "The Citadel Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://citadelsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2193", "teamName": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868339", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Chattanooga Mocs at East Tennessee State Buccaneers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "William B. Greene Jr. Stadium", "address": { "city": "Johnson City", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37604", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2193", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2193", "displayName": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers" } }, { "id": "236", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "236", "displayName": "Chattanooga Mocs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://etsubucs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Charleston. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2643", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2193" ], "finding": "The Citadel Bulldogs: QB Quentin Hayes/Nick Billoups, RB Gavin Garcia/Michael Lorino, WR Abijah Webb/Damir Abdullah/Braylon Knauth, TE Whit Hobgood; East Tennessee State Buccaneers: QB Mason Mims/Jadyn Davis, RB TJ Peyton/Jason Albritton/Jaiden Daniels, WR Tyler Griffin/Suderian Harrison, TE Charlie Browder/Khristian Means" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2643", "teamName": "The Citadel Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867986", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "The Citadel Bulldogs at South Carolina State Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Oliver C. Dawson Stadium", "address": { "city": "Orangeburg", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29115", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2569", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2569", "displayName": "South Carolina State Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2643", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "2643", "displayName": "The Citadel Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://citadelsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2193", "teamName": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868339", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Chattanooga Mocs at East Tennessee State Buccaneers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "William B. Greene Jr. Stadium", "address": { "city": "Johnson City", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37604", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2193", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2193", "displayName": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers" } }, { "id": "236", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "236", "displayName": "Chattanooga Mocs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://etsubucs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Charleston. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.503806+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. High near 81. Southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 4am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Southeast wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.86833333333333, 24.09 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.666666666666664, 24.666666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.95, 25.15 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.56, -1.06 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. 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No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401858482", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401858482", "date": "2026-10-10T16:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "11823", "fullName": "Ryan Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Evanston", "state": "IL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2050", "away_name": "Ball State Cardinals", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "77", "home_name": "Northwestern Wildcats", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 15.833333333333334, 29.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 19.2, 37.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 22.5, 20.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 33.0, 16.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 31.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 31.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "adjusted_score": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.833333333333334, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -13.999999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401752801", "401752683", "401762818", "401757169", "401762830", "401762834", "401762838", "401762845", "401762853", "401762861", "401762867", "401762875" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.2, "pa": 37.8, "margin": -18.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401858432", "401866413", "401866422", "401866425", "401866431" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.5, "pa": 20.916666666666668, "margin": 1.5833333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401752803", "401752817", "401752831", "401752851", "401752858", "401752866", "401752874", "401752883", "401752896", "401752905", "401752909", "401752922" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33.0, "pa": 16.75, "margin": 16.25, "event_ids": [ "401858431", "401856796", "401858461", "401858476" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.375, 26.166666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.975, 35.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.043333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 13.0, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 13.0, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ball State Cardinals", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Northwestern Wildcats", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401858482", "matchup": "Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern Wildcats", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Ball State Cardinals", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Northwestern Wildcats", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Ball State Cardinals: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Northwestern Wildcats: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 13.331666666666667, 37.32666666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 18.375, 26.166666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 17.975, 35.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -5.043333333333333, 6.543333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 100, "def_points_proxy": 186, "off_plays": 408, "off_yards": 2033, "def_plays": 444, "def_yards": 2811, "early_plays": 295, "early_yards": 1354, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858432", "401866413", "401866422", "401866425", "401866431" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.7241379310344827, "def_ppd": 3.206896551724138, "off_ypp": 4.982843137254902, "def_ypp": 6.331081081081081, "early_down_ypp": 4.589830508474576 }, "home": { "off_drives": 46, "def_drives": 46, "off_points_proxy": 135, "def_points_proxy": 67, "off_plays": 324, "off_yards": 2205, "def_plays": 370, "def_yards": 2047, "early_plays": 239, "early_yards": 1667, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856796", "401858431", "401858461", "401858476" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.9347826086956523, "def_ppd": 1.4565217391304348, "off_ypp": 6.805555555555555, "def_ypp": 5.532432432432432, "early_down_ypp": 6.97489539748954 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Increasing clouds, with a high near 77. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. South southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Evanston&state=IL&site=LOT&textField1=42.041&textField2=-87.689&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ball State Cardinals", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Northwestern Wildcats", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858482", "matchup": "Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern Wildcats", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Ball State Cardinals", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Northwestern Wildcats", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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"Jamarion McDougle", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 135 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2050/athletes/5222761/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5078533", "name": "Jabari Smith", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 132 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2050/athletes/5078533/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5295205", "name": "Tate Hoover", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 37 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2050/athletes/5295205/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5082283", "name": "Alex Scherle", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 16 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2050/athletes/5082283/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Ball State Cardinals: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. 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PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2050/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2050/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858482", "teamId": "77", "team": "Northwestern Wildcats", "side": "home", "opponent": "Ball State Cardinals", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5075805", "name": "Aidan Chiles", "position": "QB", "workload": "63/89, 900 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/5075805/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5078244", "name": "Caleb Komolafe", "position": "RB", "workload": "52 CAR, 290 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/5078244/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4816307", "name": "Joseph Himon II", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 277 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/4816307/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685545", "name": "Gavin Sawchuk", "position": "RB", "workload": "33 CAR, 170 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/4685545/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5154734", "name": "Griffin Wilde", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 281 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/5154734/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5222752", "name": "Drew Wagner", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 97 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/5222752/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4921291", "name": "Ricky Ahumaraeze", "position": "WR", "workload": "4 REC, 63 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/4921291/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5328488", "name": "Luke Dehnicke", "position": "TE", "workload": "11 REC, 208 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/5328488/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4569262", "name": "Alex Honig", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/4569262/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Northwestern Wildcats: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. 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South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 20, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ball State Cardinals", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Northwestern Wildcats", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401867992", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867992", "date": "2026-10-10T16:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3847", "fullName": "Cooper Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2083", "away_name": "Bucknell Bison", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "46", "home_name": "Georgetown Hoyas", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.88181818181818, 25.761363636363637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.88181818181818, 25.761363636363637 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.88181818181818, 25.761363636363637 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 26.083333333333332, 34.083333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 10.2, 26.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 21.083333333333332, 26.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 16.5, 31.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 23.0, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.54315665961368, 29.575022551801105 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.54315665961368, 29.575022551801105 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.54315665961368, 29.575022551801105 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.5, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.083333333333332, "pa": 34.083333333333336, "margin": -8.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401760359", "401767626", "401767588", "401767664", "401767665", "401767666", "401767667", "401767692", "401767668", "401767669", "401767670", "401767671" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 10.2, "pa": 26.8, "margin": -16.6, "event_ids": [ "401867988", "401867989", "401867990", "401867991", "401858236" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.083333333333332, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": -5.583333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767602", "401767719", "401767720", "401767551", "401767721", "401767399", "401767722", "401767668", "401767723", "401767724", "401767717", "401767725" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 16.5, "pa": 31.0, "margin": -14.5, "event_ids": [ "401868017", "401868018", "401867818", "401867828" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.375, 27.583333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.6, 21.65 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.45166666666666694, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23.0, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.083333333333332, "pa": 34.083333333333336, "margin": -8.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401760359", "401767626", "401767588", "401767664", "401767665", "401767666", "401767667", "401767692", "401767668", "401767669", "401767670", "401767671" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 10.2, "pa": 26.8, "margin": -16.6, "event_ids": [ "401867988", "401867989", "401867990", "401867991", "401858236" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.083333333333332, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": -5.583333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767602", "401767719", "401767720", "401767551", "401767721", "401767399", "401767722", "401767668", "401767723", "401767724", "401767717", "401767725" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 16.5, "pa": 31.0, "margin": -14.5, "event_ids": [ "401868017", "401868018", "401867818", "401867828" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.375, 27.583333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.6, 21.65 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.45166666666666694, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23.0, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401867992", "matchup": "Bucknell Bison at Georgetown Hoyas", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Georgetown Hoyas: QB Jack Johnson/Gavin Beard, RB Clay Ash/Jayden Sumpter/Isaac Ramsey, WR Hassan Mahasin/Jayvin Pyle-Thompson/Legend Bernard, TE Isaiah Grimes/Burke Carroll; Bucknell Bison: QB Emmett Dowling/Christopher Dietrich, RB Ty Stauffer/Jack Sullivan/Michael Cadden, WR TJ Cadden/Sam Milligan/Matthew Giannantonio, TE Tom Arth/Jack Bohm-Squicciarini", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.923333333333332, 26.568333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 26.375, 27.583333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.6, 21.65 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.45166666666666694, 1.9516666666666669 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 60, "off_points_proxy": 45, "def_points_proxy": 135, "off_plays": 395, "off_yards": 1499, "def_plays": 415, "def_yards": 2564, "early_plays": 262, "early_yards": 981, "explosive_plays": 18, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858236", "401867988", "401867989", "401867990", "401867991" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 0.75, "def_ppd": 2.25, "off_ypp": 3.7949367088607593, "def_ypp": 6.178313253012048, "early_down_ypp": 3.7442748091603053 }, "home": { "off_drives": 44, "def_drives": 46, "off_points_proxy": 52, "def_points_proxy": 124, "off_plays": 317, "off_yards": 1514, "def_plays": 374, "def_yards": 2605, "early_plays": 211, "early_yards": 1058, "explosive_plays": 23, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867818", "401867828", "401868017", "401868018" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 1.1818181818181819, "def_ppd": 2.6956521739130435, "off_ypp": 4.7760252365930596, "def_ypp": 6.96524064171123, "early_down_ypp": 5.014218009478673 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "46", "teamName": "Georgetown Hoyas", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867828", "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "name": "Cornell Big Red at Georgetown Hoyas", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Cooper Field", "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "zipCode": "20057", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "46", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "46", "displayName": "Georgetown Hoyas" } }, { "id": "172", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "172", "displayName": "Cornell Big Red" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://guhoyas.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2083", "teamName": "Bucknell Bison", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401858236", "date": "2026-09-26T16:00Z", "name": "Bucknell Bison at Pittsburgh Panthers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Acrisure Stadium", "address": { "city": "Pittsburgh", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "15212", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "221", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 59.0, "displayValue": "59" }, "team": { "id": "221", "displayName": "Pittsburgh Panthers" } }, { "id": "2083", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "2083", "displayName": "Bucknell Bison" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.021, "officialScheduleSource": "https://bucknellbison.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Washington. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Washington&state=DC&site=LWX&textField1=38.895&textField2=-77.0373&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.624044+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Tonight Showers likely, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867992", "matchup": "Bucknell Bison at Georgetown Hoyas", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://bucknellbison.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Washington&state=DC&site=LWX&textField1=38.895&textField2=-77.0373&e=1", "https://guhoyas.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401867992", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867992", "date": "2026-10-10T16:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3847", "fullName": "Cooper Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2083", "away_name": "Bucknell Bison", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "46", "home_name": "Georgetown Hoyas", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.083333333333332, "pa": 34.083333333333336, "margin": -8.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401760359", "401767626", "401767588", "401767664", "401767665", "401767666", "401767667", "401767692", "401767668", "401767669", "401767670", "401767671" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 10.2, "pa": 26.8, "margin": -16.6, "event_ids": [ "401867988", "401867989", "401867990", "401867991", "401858236" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.083333333333332, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": -5.583333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767602", "401767719", "401767720", "401767551", "401767721", "401767399", "401767722", "401767668", "401767723", "401767724", "401767717", "401767725" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 16.5, "pa": 31.0, "margin": -14.5, "event_ids": [ "401868017", "401868018", "401867818", "401867828" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.375, 27.583333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.6, 21.65 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.45166666666666694, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "57", "side": "home", "player": "Vernell Brown III", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 22.083333333333332, "margin": 0.5833333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401752680", "401752691", "401752704", "401752713", "401752722", "401752732", "401752744", "401752751", "401752756", "401752772", "401752779", "401752790" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.6, "pa": 26.8, "margin": 10.8, "event_ids": [ "401856665", "401856680", "401856691", "401856696", "401856709" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.583333333333332, "pa": 24.0, "margin": -2.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752668", "401752684", "401752699", "401752709", "401752727", "401752737", "401752741", "401752755", "401752760", "401752769", "401752775", "401752785" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 46.2, "pa": 27.2, "margin": 19.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401856637", "401856672", "401856687", "401856699", "401856708" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.333333333333336, 21.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.4, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5199999999999999, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 31.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 31.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Florida Gators", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Vernell Brown III" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401856714", "matchup": "South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Florida Gators", "names": [ "Vernell Brown III" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "South Carolina Gamecocks: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Second-leading receiver (17 catches/271 yards) is QUESTIONABLE. Preserve available and redistributed-target branches. Philo/Baugh carry no listed restriction in the current conference report.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 31.88, 31.186666666666664 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.333333333333336, 21.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.4, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5199999999999999, 2.02 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 171, "def_points_proxy": 127, "off_plays": 461, "off_yards": 3061, "def_plays": 437, "def_yards": 2218, "early_plays": 327, "early_yards": 2037, "explosive_plays": 41, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856665", "401856680", "401856691", "401856696", "401856709" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.85, "def_ppd": 2.0483870967741935, "off_ypp": 6.639913232104122, "def_ypp": 5.075514874141876, "early_down_ypp": 6.229357798165138 }, "home": { "off_drives": 57, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 217, "def_points_proxy": 133, "off_plays": 418, "off_yards": 2980, "def_plays": 447, "def_yards": 2704, "early_plays": 321, "early_yards": 2080, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856637", "401856672", "401856687", "401856699", "401856708" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.807017543859649, "def_ppd": 2.1451612903225805, "off_ypp": 7.1291866028708135, "def_ypp": 6.049217002237136, "early_down_ypp": 6.479750778816199 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. South wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Gainesville&state=FL&site=JAX&textField1=29.6742&textField2=-82.3363&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Florida Gators", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Vernell Brown III" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856714", "matchup": "South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Florida Gators", "names": [ "Vernell Brown III" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/4683210/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/4870745/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/4875127/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/4921292/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/5079329/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5079289/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5079322/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5132812/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5139093/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5141723/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5218907/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5295811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5295814/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5295815/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Gainesville&state=FL&site=JAX&textField1=29.6742&textField2=-82.3363&e=0", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2579/roster?season=2026", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/57/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079289/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141723/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5218907/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5295811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079289/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141723/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5218907/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5295811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079289/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141723/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5218907/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5295811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports" ], "tu": { "id": "401856714", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401856714", "date": "2026-10-10T16:45Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3634", "fullName": "Ben Hill Griffin Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Gainesville", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2579", "away_name": "South Carolina Gamecocks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "57", "home_name": "Florida Gators", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 22.083333333333332, "margin": 0.5833333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401752680", "401752691", "401752704", "401752713", "401752722", "401752732", "401752744", "401752751", "401752756", "401752772", "401752779", "401752790" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.6, "pa": 26.8, "margin": 10.8, "event_ids": [ "401856665", "401856680", "401856691", "401856696", "401856709" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.583333333333332, "pa": 24.0, "margin": -2.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752668", "401752684", "401752699", "401752709", "401752727", "401752737", "401752741", "401752755", "401752760", "401752769", "401752775", "401752785" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 46.2, "pa": 27.2, "margin": 19.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401856637", "401856672", "401856687", "401856699", "401856708" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.333333333333336, 21.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.4, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5199999999999999, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 9.346666666666668, 45.346666666666664 ], "home": [ 13.186666666666664, 49.18666666666667 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401856714", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856714", "teamId": "2579", "team": "South Carolina Gamecocks", "side": "away", "opponent": "Florida Gators", "conferenceReportKey": "South Carolina", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4875127", "name": "LaNorris Sellers", "position": "QB", "workload": "92/152, 1059 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/4875127/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5164334", "name": "Cutter Woods", "position": "QB", "workload": "9/14, 92 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/5164334/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5145737", "name": "Matt Fuller", "position": "RB", "workload": "71 CAR, 433 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/5145737/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141742", "name": "Jabree Coleman", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 173 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/5141742/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4921292", "name": "Isaiah Augustave", "position": "RB", "workload": "14 CAR, 114 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/4921292/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5079329", "name": "Mazeo Bennett Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 201 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/5079329/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870745", "name": "Nyck Harbor", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 195 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/4870745/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5200374", "name": "Donovan Murph", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 159 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/5200374/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4683210", "name": "Brady Hunt", "position": "TE", "workload": "11 REC, 95 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/4683210/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5154341", "name": "Maurice Brown II", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 43 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/5154341/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Jayden Sellers", "id": "5179622", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "South Carolina Gamecocks: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2579/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856714", "teamId": "57", "team": "Florida Gators", "side": "home", "opponent": "South Carolina Gamecocks", "conferenceReportKey": "Florida", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5132812", "name": "Aaron Philo", "position": "QB", "workload": "84/121, 1114 YDS, 8 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5132812/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295814", "name": "Tramell Jones Jr.", "position": "QB", "workload": "17/21, 212 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5295814/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5079322", "name": "Jadan Baugh", "position": "RB", "workload": "95 CAR, 613 YDS, 11 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5079322/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295815", "name": "Duke Clark", "position": "RB", "workload": "33 CAR, 260 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5295815/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4432757", "name": "Evan Pryor", "position": "RB", "workload": "12 CAR, 40 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/4432757/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5141723", "name": "Dallas Wilson", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 302 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5141723/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295811", "name": "Vernell Brown III", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 271 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5295811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079289", "name": "TJ Abrams", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 166 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5079289/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5218907", "name": "Luke Harpring", "position": "TE", "workload": "10 REC, 130 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5218907/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5139093", "name": "Amir Jackson", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5139093/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Vernell Brown III", "id": "5295811", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "3 CAR, 16 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "17 REC, 271 YDS, 2 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Second-leading receiver (17 catches/271 yards) is QUESTIONABLE. Preserve available and redistributed-target branches. Philo/Baugh carry no listed restriction in the current conference report.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Vernell Brown III" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Vernell Brown III", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 26.704545454545453, 26.25 ], "Primary": [ 21.907448075492823, 29.62047086728566 ], "TightenUpON": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Second-leading receiver (17 catches/271 yards) is QUESTIONABLE. Preserve available and redistributed-target branches. Philo/Baugh carry no listed restriction in the current conference report.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.704545454545453, 26.25 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.907448075492823, 29.62047086728566 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5295811", "name": "Vernell Brown III", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/156", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "57", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5295811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 14, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 14, "receptions": 40, "receivingYards": 512, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5295811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 16, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.300000190734863, "receptions": 17, "receivingYards": 271, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5295811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "57" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079289", "name": "TJ Abrams", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/163", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 3, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079289/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 14, "receivingYards": 202, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079289/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 8, "receivingYards": 166, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079289/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "57" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5141723", "name": "Dallas Wilson", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/162", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "57", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141723/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 12, "receivingYards": 174, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141723/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 6, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6, "receptions": 18, "receivingYards": 302, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141723/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "57" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5218907", "name": "Luke Harpring", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/165", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "59", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 43, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5218907/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "59", "status": "available", "games": 7, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 158, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5218907/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 130, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5218907/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "59" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Vernell Brown III", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Dallas Wilson", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Vernell Brown III" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/57/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.704545454545453, 26.25 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.907448075492823, 29.62047086728566 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 31.88, 31.186666666666664 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.333333333333336, 21.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.4, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5199999999999999, 2.02 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators", "market": { "id": "401856714", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856714", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.133154+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.323477+00:00", "home_line": -10.5, "away_line": 10.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 58.5, "under_line": 58.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -470.0, "away_ml": 360.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -10.5, "average_total": 58.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 2.5454545454545467, "combined": 55.95454545454545, "spread_buffer": -7.954545454545453, "total_difference": -2.5454545454545467 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 2.5454545454545467, "combined": 55.95454545454545, "spread_buffer": -7.954545454545453, "total_difference": -2.5454545454545467 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 10.713022791792838, "combined": 54.527918942778484, "spread_buffer": 0.213022791792838, "total_difference": -3.9720810572215157 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 10.713022791792838, "combined": 54.527918942778484, "spread_buffer": 0.213022791792838, "total_difference": -3.9720810572215157 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 3.8399999999999963, "combined": 58.53333333333333, "spread_buffer": -6.660000000000004, "total_difference": 0.03333333333333144 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 3.8399999999999963, "combined": 58.53333333333333, "spread_buffer": -6.660000000000004, "total_difference": 0.03333333333333144 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401856714", "matchup": "South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "THREE_OR_MORE_MEDIUM_RISKS", "ON_UNRESOLVED_MEDIUM_AVAILABILITY" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "South Carolina Gamecocks", "line": 10.5, "price": -105.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856714", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.133154+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.323477+00:00", "home_line": -10.5, "away_line": 10.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 58.5, "under_line": 58.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -470.0, "away_ml": 360.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 6.660000000000004, "production_adjusted": 6.660000000000004, "minimum_all_scenarios": 6.660000000000004, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "directional_buffer": 7.954545454545453, "scenario_minimum": 7.954545454545453 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "directional_buffer": -0.213022791792838, "scenario_minimum": -0.213022791792838 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 6.660000000000004, "scenario_minimum": 6.660000000000004 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 6.660000000000004, "scenario_minimum": 6.660000000000004 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 6.660000000000004, "stressed_buffer": 3.6600000000000037 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 9.660000000000004, "stressed_buffer": 6.660000000000004 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 6.660000000000004, "stressed_buffer": 3.6600000000000037 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 31.88, 28.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 14.193333333333335, "stressed_buffer": 11.193333333333335 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 31.88, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 11.193333333333335, "stressed_buffer": 8.193333333333335 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 31.88, 31.186666666666664 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.333333333333336, 21.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.4, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5199999999999999, 2.02 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Florida Gators", "names": [ "Vernell Brown III" ], "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Gainesville&state=FL&site=JAX&textField1=29.6742&textField2=-82.3363&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 3, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Gainesville&state=FL&site=JAX&textField1=29.6742&textField2=-82.3363&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:45:00-04:00", "window": "A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 28, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Florida Gators", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Vernell Brown III" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401856714", "matchup": "South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 58.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856714", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.133154+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.323477+00:00", "home_line": -10.5, "away_line": 10.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 58.5, "under_line": 58.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -470.0, "away_ml": 360.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 0.03333333333333144, "production_adjusted": 0.03333333333333144, "minimum_all_scenarios": -2.9666666666666686, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "directional_buffer": -2.5454545454545467, "scenario_minimum": -5.545454545454547 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "directional_buffer": -3.9720810572215157, "scenario_minimum": -6.972081057221516 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 0.03333333333333144, "scenario_minimum": -2.9666666666666686 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 0.03333333333333144, "scenario_minimum": -2.9666666666666686 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": -2.9666666666666686, "stressed_buffer": -5.966666666666669 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": -2.9666666666666686, "stressed_buffer": -5.966666666666669 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 0.03333333333333144, "stressed_buffer": -2.9666666666666686 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 31.88, 28.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 1.5666666666666629, "stressed_buffer": -1.4333333333333371 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 31.88, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 4.566666666666663, "stressed_buffer": 1.5666666666666629 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 31.88, 31.186666666666664 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.333333333333336, 21.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.4, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5199999999999999, 2.02 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Florida Gators", "names": [ "Vernell Brown III" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Gainesville&state=FL&site=JAX&textField1=29.6742&textField2=-82.3363&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Gainesville&state=FL&site=JAX&textField1=29.6742&textField2=-82.3363&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:45:00-04:00", "window": "A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 28, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Florida Gators", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Vernell Brown III" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 3.8399999999999963, "combined": 58.53333333333333, "spread_buffer": -6.660000000000004, "total_difference": 0.03333333333333144 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 3.8399999999999963, "combined": 58.53333333333333, "spread_buffer": -6.660000000000004, "total_difference": 0.03333333333333144 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401856714", "matchup": "South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "THREE_OR_MORE_MEDIUM_RISKS" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "South Carolina Gamecocks", "line": 10.5, "price": -105.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856714", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.133154+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.323477+00:00", "home_line": -10.5, "away_line": 10.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 58.5, "under_line": 58.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -470.0, "away_ml": 360.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 6.660000000000004, "production_adjusted": 6.660000000000004, "minimum_all_scenarios": 6.660000000000004, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "directional_buffer": 7.954545454545453, "scenario_minimum": 7.954545454545453 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "directional_buffer": -0.213022791792838, "scenario_minimum": -0.213022791792838 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 6.660000000000004, "scenario_minimum": 6.660000000000004 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 6.660000000000004, "scenario_minimum": 6.660000000000004 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 6.660000000000004, "stressed_buffer": 3.6600000000000037 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 9.660000000000004, "stressed_buffer": 6.660000000000004 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 6.660000000000004, "stressed_buffer": 3.6600000000000037 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 31.88, 28.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 14.193333333333335, "stressed_buffer": 11.193333333333335 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 31.88, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 11.193333333333335, "stressed_buffer": 8.193333333333335 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 31.88, 31.186666666666664 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.333333333333336, 21.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.4, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5199999999999999, 2.02 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Florida Gators", "names": [ "Vernell Brown III" ], "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Gainesville&state=FL&site=JAX&textField1=29.6742&textField2=-82.3363&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 3, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Gainesville&state=FL&site=JAX&textField1=29.6742&textField2=-82.3363&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:45:00-04:00", "window": "A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 28, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Florida Gators", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Vernell Brown III" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401856714", "matchup": "South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 58.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856714", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.133154+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.323477+00:00", "home_line": -10.5, "away_line": 10.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 58.5, "under_line": 58.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -470.0, "away_ml": 360.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 0.03333333333333144, "production_adjusted": 0.03333333333333144, "minimum_all_scenarios": -2.9666666666666686, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "directional_buffer": -2.5454545454545467, "scenario_minimum": -5.545454545454547 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "directional_buffer": -3.9720810572215157, "scenario_minimum": -6.972081057221516 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 0.03333333333333144, "scenario_minimum": -2.9666666666666686 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 0.03333333333333144, "scenario_minimum": -2.9666666666666686 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": -2.9666666666666686, "stressed_buffer": -5.966666666666669 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": -2.9666666666666686, "stressed_buffer": -5.966666666666669 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 0.03333333333333144, "stressed_buffer": -2.9666666666666686 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 31.88, 28.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 1.5666666666666629, "stressed_buffer": -1.4333333333333371 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 31.88, 31.186666666666664 ], "directional_buffer": 4.566666666666663, "stressed_buffer": 1.5666666666666629 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 31.88, 31.186666666666664 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.333333333333336, 21.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.4, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5199999999999999, 2.02 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Florida Gators", "names": [ "Vernell Brown III" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Gainesville&state=FL&site=JAX&textField1=29.6742&textField2=-82.3363&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Gainesville&state=FL&site=JAX&textField1=29.6742&textField2=-82.3363&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:45:00-04:00", "window": "A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 28, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Florida Gators", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Vernell Brown III" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401862797", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401862797", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3699", "fullName": "Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Greenville", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "242", "away_name": "Rice Owls", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "151", "home_name": "East Carolina Pirates", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 19.833333333333332, 32.25 ], "current_rates": [ 18.0, 27.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 33.5, 20.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 24.0, 25.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 20.0, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.0, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 15.0, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15.0, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.833333333333332, "pa": 32.25, "margin": -12.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401761592", "401756884", "401762466", "401762468", "401762473", "401762477", "401762485", "401757172", "401762497", "401762502", "401762514", "401762520" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.0, "pa": 27.4, "margin": -9.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401862697", "401859184", "401862773", "401860891", "401862788" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.5, "pa": 20.333333333333332, "margin": 13.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754373", "401762459", "401761604", "401756898", "401762471", "401762480", "401762486", "401762498", "401762504", "401762508", "401762513", "401762519" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 25.25, "margin": -1.25, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401864571", "401862710", "401862781" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.083333333333332, 32.875 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.625, 25.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.3733333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 34.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 34.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.833333333333332, "pa": 32.25, "margin": -12.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401761592", "401756884", "401762466", "401762468", "401762473", "401762477", "401762485", "401757172", "401762497", "401762502", "401762514", "401762520" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.0, "pa": 27.4, "margin": -9.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401862697", "401859184", "401862773", "401860891", "401862788" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.5, "pa": 20.333333333333332, "margin": 13.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754373", "401762459", "401761604", "401756898", "401762471", "401762480", "401762486", "401762498", "401762504", "401762508", "401762513", "401762519" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 25.25, "margin": -1.25, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401864571", "401862710", "401862781" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.083333333333332, 32.875 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.625, 25.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.3733333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 34.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 34.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Rice Owls", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401862797", "matchup": "Rice Owls at East Carolina Pirates", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Rice Owls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Rice Owls: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | East Carolina Pirates: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.251666666666665, 34.160833333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.083333333333332, 32.875 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.625, 25.7 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.3733333333333335, 4.873333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 51, "def_drives": 51, "off_points_proxy": 90, "def_points_proxy": 130, "off_plays": 401, "off_yards": 2172, "def_plays": 410, "def_yards": 2191, "early_plays": 281, "early_yards": 1487, "explosive_plays": 28, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401859184", "401860891", "401862697", "401862773", "401862788" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.7647058823529411, "def_ppd": 2.549019607843137, "off_ypp": 5.41645885286783, "def_ypp": 5.34390243902439, "early_down_ypp": 5.291814946619217 }, "home": { "off_drives": 51, "def_drives": 54, "off_points_proxy": 82, "def_points_proxy": 88, "off_plays": 311, "off_yards": 1723, "def_plays": 372, "def_yards": 1871, "early_plays": 217, "early_yards": 1196, "explosive_plays": 27, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856634", "401862710", "401862781", "401864571" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 1.607843137254902, "def_ppd": 1.6296296296296295, "off_ypp": 5.540192926045016, "def_ypp": 5.029569892473118, "early_down_ypp": 5.511520737327189 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 74. East wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 69. East wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greenville&state=NC&site=MHX&textField1=35.5998&textField2=-77.3744&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Rice Owls", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401862797", "matchup": "Rice Owls at East Carolina Pirates", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Rice Owls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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"http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/4923288/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5082271/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5144288/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5145788/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5207925/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5207930/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"401862797", "teamId": "242", "team": "Rice Owls", "side": "away", "opponent": "East Carolina Pirates", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4685291", "name": "Jacurri Brown", "position": "QB", "workload": "36/67, 410 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/4685291/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5145788", "name": "Gael Ochoa", "position": "QB", "workload": "2/5, 17 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5145788/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5207925", "name": "Tyvonn Byars", "position": "RB", "workload": "52 CAR, 208 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5207925/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5207930", "name": "D'Andre Hardeman Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "52 CAR, 200 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5207930/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5082271", "name": "Quinton Jackson", "position": "RB", "workload": "9 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5082271/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4923288", "name": "Barry Jackson Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/4923288/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5265445", "name": "Jordan Clark", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 102 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5265445/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5144288", "name": "Ben Grice", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 64 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5144288/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Rice Owls: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [ "receivingTE" ], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/242/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401862797", "teamId": "151", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "side": "home", "opponent": "Rice Owls", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4433829", "name": "Mitch Griffis", "position": "QB", "workload": "36/67, 425 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/4433829/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5075800", "name": "Emory Williams", "position": "QB", "workload": "31/46, 386 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/5075800/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5079419", "name": "TJ Engleman Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "31 CAR, 250 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/5079419/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5194306", "name": "Ashton Gray", "position": "RB", "workload": "32 CAR, 152 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/5194306/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685237", "name": "Michael Allen", "position": "RB", "workload": "23 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/4685237/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4870770", "name": "Ray Ray Joseph Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 199 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/4870770/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5145453", "name": "Jeremiah Melvin", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 154 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/5145453/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5148837", "name": "Dillon Lorick", "position": "WR", "workload": "3 REC, 87 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/5148837/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5125012", "name": "Ismael Smith Flores", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 48 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/5125012/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4911906", "name": "Kanen Hamlett", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 23 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/4911906/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "East Carolina Pirates: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/151/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.251666666666665, 34.160833333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 16.680000000000007, "combined": 51.641666666666666, "spread_buffer": 6.680000000000007, "total_difference": 5.141666666666666 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 16.680000000000007, "combined": 51.641666666666666, "spread_buffer": 6.680000000000007, "total_difference": 5.141666666666666 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401862797", "matchup": "Rice Owls at East Carolina Pirates", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "line": -10.0, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862797", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.156333+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.388316+00:00", "home_line": -10.0, "away_line": 10.0, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 46.5, "under_line": 46.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -380.0, "away_ml": 300.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 6.680000000000007, "production_adjusted": 6.680000000000007, "minimum_all_scenarios": 5.909166666666671, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "directional_buffer": 0.7227272727272727, "scenario_minimum": 0.7227272727272727 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "directional_buffer": 9.700331914740183, "scenario_minimum": 9.700331914740183 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 6.680000000000007, "scenario_minimum": 6.680000000000007 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 6.680000000000007, "scenario_minimum": 6.680000000000007 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.251666666666665, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.909166666666671, "stressed_buffer": 2.909166666666671 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 6.680000000000007, "stressed_buffer": 3.680000000000007 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.251666666666665, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.909166666666671, "stressed_buffer": 2.909166666666671 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.251666666666665, 34.160833333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.083333333333332, 32.875 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.625, 25.7 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.3733333333333335, 4.873333333333333 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Rice Owls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greenville&state=NC&site=MHX&textField1=35.5998&textField2=-77.3744&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greenville&state=NC&site=MHX&textField1=35.5998&textField2=-77.3744&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. 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New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 24, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Rice Owls", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401862797", "matchup": "Rice Owls at East Carolina Pirates", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 46.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862797", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.156333+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.388316+00:00", "home_line": -10.0, "away_line": 10.0, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 46.5, "under_line": 46.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -380.0, "away_ml": 300.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 5.141666666666666, "production_adjusted": 5.141666666666666, "minimum_all_scenarios": 5.141666666666666, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "directional_buffer": 4.022727272727266, "scenario_minimum": 4.022727272727266 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "directional_buffer": 2.7496691671093103, "scenario_minimum": 2.7496691671093103 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.141666666666666, "scenario_minimum": 5.141666666666666 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.141666666666666, "scenario_minimum": 5.141666666666666 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.141666666666666, "stressed_buffer": 2.1416666666666657 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.141666666666666, "stressed_buffer": 2.1416666666666657 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.251666666666665, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.912500000000001, "stressed_buffer": 2.9125000000000014 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.251666666666665, 34.160833333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.083333333333332, 32.875 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.625, 25.7 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.3733333333333335, 4.873333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Rice Owls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greenville&state=NC&site=MHX&textField1=35.5998&textField2=-77.3744&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greenville&state=NC&site=MHX&textField1=35.5998&textField2=-77.3744&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 74. East wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 24, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Rice Owls", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 16.680000000000007, "combined": 51.641666666666666, "spread_buffer": 6.680000000000007, "total_difference": 5.141666666666666 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 16.680000000000007, "combined": 51.641666666666666, "spread_buffer": 6.680000000000007, "total_difference": 5.141666666666666 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401862797", "matchup": "Rice Owls at East Carolina Pirates", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "line": -10.0, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862797", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.156333+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.388316+00:00", "home_line": -10.0, "away_line": 10.0, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 46.5, "under_line": 46.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -380.0, "away_ml": 300.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 6.680000000000007, "production_adjusted": 6.680000000000007, "minimum_all_scenarios": 5.909166666666671, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "directional_buffer": 0.7227272727272727, "scenario_minimum": 0.7227272727272727 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "directional_buffer": 9.700331914740183, "scenario_minimum": 9.700331914740183 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 6.680000000000007, "scenario_minimum": 6.680000000000007 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 6.680000000000007, "scenario_minimum": 6.680000000000007 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.251666666666665, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.909166666666671, "stressed_buffer": 2.909166666666671 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 6.680000000000007, "stressed_buffer": 3.680000000000007 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.251666666666665, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.909166666666671, "stressed_buffer": 2.909166666666671 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.251666666666665, 34.160833333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.083333333333332, 32.875 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.625, 25.7 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.3733333333333335, 4.873333333333333 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Rice Owls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greenville&state=NC&site=MHX&textField1=35.5998&textField2=-77.3744&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greenville&state=NC&site=MHX&textField1=35.5998&textField2=-77.3744&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 74. East wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 24, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Rice Owls", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401862797", "matchup": "Rice Owls at East Carolina Pirates", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 46.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862797", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.156333+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.388316+00:00", "home_line": -10.0, "away_line": 10.0, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 46.5, "under_line": 46.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -380.0, "away_ml": 300.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 5.141666666666666, "production_adjusted": 5.141666666666666, "minimum_all_scenarios": 5.141666666666666, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "directional_buffer": 4.022727272727266, "scenario_minimum": 4.022727272727266 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "directional_buffer": 2.7496691671093103, "scenario_minimum": 2.7496691671093103 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.141666666666666, "scenario_minimum": 5.141666666666666 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.141666666666666, "scenario_minimum": 5.141666666666666 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.141666666666666, "stressed_buffer": 2.1416666666666657 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.141666666666666, "stressed_buffer": 2.1416666666666657 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.251666666666665, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.912500000000001, "stressed_buffer": 2.9125000000000014 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.251666666666665, 34.160833333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.083333333333332, 32.875 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.625, 25.7 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.3733333333333335, 4.873333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Rice Owls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greenville&state=NC&site=MHX&textField1=35.5998&textField2=-77.3744&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greenville&state=NC&site=MHX&textField1=35.5998&textField2=-77.3744&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 74. East wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 24, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Rice Owls", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401867829", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867829", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3921", "fullName": "Schoellkopf Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Ithaca", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "108", "away_name": "Harvard Crimson", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "172", "home_name": "Cornell Big Red", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.95707070707071, 21.143939393939398 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.95707070707071, 21.143939393939398 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.95707070707071, 21.143939393939398 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 11, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 36.45454545454545, 21.181818181818183 ], "current_rates": [ 21.666666666666668, 11.333333333333334 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 21.0, 26.0 ], "current_rates": [ 26.666666666666668, 19.666666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 21.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.0, 21.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.07342943534067, 25.785415864885724 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.07342943534067, 25.785415864885724 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.07342943534067, 25.785415864885724 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 36.45454545454545, "pa": 21.181818181818183, "margin": 15.27272727272727, "event_ids": [ "401767653", "401767552", "401767727", "401767691", "401767704", "401767705", "401767702", "401767706", "401767707", "401767708", "401836055" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 21.666666666666668, "pa": 11.333333333333334, "margin": 10.333333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401866639", "401867806", "401867840" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 21.0, "pa": 26.0, "margin": -5.0, "event_ids": [ "401767333", "401767689", "401767690", "401767691", "401767692", "401767554", "401767693", "401767694", "401767695", "401767696" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 26.666666666666668, "pa": 19.666666666666668, "margin": 7.0, "event_ids": [ "401867826", "401867827", "401867828" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.227272727272727, 21.090909090909093 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 19.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.3606060606060604, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 19.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 19.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 36.45454545454545, "pa": 21.181818181818183, "margin": 15.27272727272727, "event_ids": [ "401767653", "401767552", "401767727", "401767691", "401767704", "401767705", "401767702", "401767706", "401767707", "401767708", "401836055" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 21.666666666666668, "pa": 11.333333333333334, "margin": 10.333333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401866639", "401867806", "401867840" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 21.0, "pa": 26.0, "margin": -5.0, "event_ids": [ "401767333", "401767689", "401767690", "401767691", "401767692", "401767554", "401767693", "401767694", "401767695", "401767696" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 26.666666666666668, "pa": 19.666666666666668, "margin": 7.0, "event_ids": [ "401867826", "401867827", "401867828" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.227272727272727, 21.090909090909093 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 19.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.3606060606060604, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 19.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 19.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401867829", "matchup": "Harvard Crimson at Cornell Big Red", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Cornell Big Red: QB Garrett Bass-Sulpizio, RB Ean Pope/John McAuliffe/Ty Doughty, WR Samuel Musungu/Brendan Lee/Ja'von Broussard, TE Ryder Kurtz; Harvard Crimson: QB Charlie Smith/Kise Flannery, RB Xaviah Bascon/Cole Allen/Jordan Harris, WR Nate Bailey/Henry Shoemaker/Ryan Tattersall, TE Teigan Pelletier/Seamus Gilmartin", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. Current .50 influence cap violation: PASS required.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.307575757575755, 20.230303030303034 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.227272727272727, 21.090909090909093 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.3606060606060604, -0.8606060606060604 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 35, "def_drives": 34, "off_points_proxy": 66, "def_points_proxy": 34, "off_plays": 267, "off_yards": 1315, "def_plays": 241, "def_yards": 1057, "early_plays": 190, "early_yards": 883, "explosive_plays": 13, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866639", "401867806", "401867840" ], "games": 3, "off_ppd": 1.8857142857142857, "def_ppd": 1.0, "off_ypp": 4.925093632958801, "def_ypp": 4.385892116182573, "early_down_ypp": 4.647368421052631 }, "home": { "off_drives": 35, "def_drives": 34, "off_points_proxy": 80, "def_points_proxy": 58, "off_plays": 227, "off_yards": 1309, "def_plays": 286, "def_yards": 1487, "early_plays": 163, "early_yards": 1027, "explosive_plays": 27, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867826", "401867827", "401867828" ], "games": 3, "off_ppd": 2.2857142857142856, "def_ppd": 1.7058823529411764, "off_ypp": 5.766519823788546, "def_ypp": 5.199300699300699, "early_down_ypp": 6.300613496932515 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "172", "teamName": "Cornell Big Red", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867828", "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "name": "Cornell Big Red at Georgetown Hoyas", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Cooper Field", "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "zipCode": "20057", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "46", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "46", "displayName": "Georgetown Hoyas" } }, { "id": "172", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "172", "displayName": "Cornell Big Red" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.021, "officialScheduleSource": "https://cornellbigred.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "108", "teamName": "Harvard Crimson", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867840", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Colgate Raiders at Harvard Crimson", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Harvard Stadium", "address": { "city": "Cambridge", "state": "MA", "zipCode": "02134", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "108", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "108", "displayName": "Harvard Crimson" } }, { "id": "2142", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 17.0, "displayValue": "17" }, "team": { "id": "2142", "displayName": "Colgate Raiders" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gocrimson.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Ithaca. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ithaca&state=NY&site=BGM&textField1=42.4422&textField2=-76.5002&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.624044+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867829", "matchup": "Harvard Crimson at Cornell Big Red", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://cornellbigred.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ithaca&state=NY&site=BGM&textField1=42.4422&textField2=-76.5002&e=0", "https://gocrimson.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401867829", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867829", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3921", "fullName": "Schoellkopf Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Ithaca", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "108", "away_name": "Harvard Crimson", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "172", "home_name": "Cornell Big Red", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 36.45454545454545, "pa": 21.181818181818183, "margin": 15.27272727272727, "event_ids": [ "401767653", "401767552", "401767727", "401767691", "401767704", "401767705", "401767702", "401767706", "401767707", "401767708", "401836055" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 21.666666666666668, "pa": 11.333333333333334, "margin": 10.333333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401866639", "401867806", "401867840" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 21.0, "pa": 26.0, "margin": -5.0, "event_ids": [ "401767333", "401767689", "401767690", "401767691", "401767692", "401767554", "401767693", "401767694", "401767695", "401767696" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 26.666666666666668, "pa": 19.666666666666668, "margin": 7.0, "event_ids": [ "401867826", "401867827", "401867828" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.227272727272727, 21.090909090909093 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 19.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.3606060606060604, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 8.307575757575755, 48.307575757575755 ], "home": [ 0, 39.18484848484849 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401867829", "matchup": "Harvard Crimson at Cornell Big Red", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3921", "guid": "fe3eb25f-1776-37fa-81a8-504beb1bb783", "fullName": "Schoellkopf Field", "address": { "city": "Ithaca", "state": "NY", "zipCode": "14850", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "172", "teamName": "Cornell Big Red", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867828", "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "name": "Cornell Big Red at Georgetown Hoyas", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Cooper Field", "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "zipCode": "20057", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "46", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "46", "displayName": "Georgetown Hoyas" } }, { "id": "172", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "172", "displayName": "Cornell Big Red" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.021, "officialScheduleSource": "https://cornellbigred.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "108", "teamName": "Harvard Crimson", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867840", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Colgate Raiders at Harvard Crimson", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Harvard Stadium", "address": { "city": "Cambridge", "state": "MA", "zipCode": "02134", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "108", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "108", "displayName": "Harvard Crimson" } }, { "id": "2142", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 17.0, "displayValue": "17" }, "team": { "id": "2142", "displayName": "Colgate Raiders" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gocrimson.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Ithaca. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#172", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#108" ], "finding": "Cornell Big Red: QB Garrett Bass-Sulpizio, RB Ean Pope/John McAuliffe/Ty Doughty, WR Samuel Musungu/Brendan Lee/Ja'von Broussard, TE Ryder Kurtz; Harvard Crimson: QB Charlie Smith/Kise Flannery, RB Xaviah Bascon/Cole Allen/Jordan Harris, WR Nate Bailey/Henry Shoemaker/Ryan Tattersall, TE Teigan Pelletier/Seamus Gilmartin" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "172", "teamName": "Cornell Big Red", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867828", "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "name": "Cornell Big Red at Georgetown Hoyas", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Cooper Field", "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "zipCode": "20057", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "46", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "46", "displayName": "Georgetown Hoyas" } }, { "id": "172", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "172", "displayName": "Cornell Big Red" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.021, "officialScheduleSource": "https://cornellbigred.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "108", "teamName": "Harvard Crimson", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867840", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Colgate Raiders at Harvard Crimson", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Harvard Stadium", "address": { "city": "Cambridge", "state": "MA", "zipCode": "02134", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "108", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "108", "displayName": "Harvard Crimson" } }, { "id": "2142", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 17.0, "displayValue": "17" }, "team": { "id": "2142", "displayName": "Colgate Raiders" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gocrimson.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Ithaca. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ithaca&state=NY&site=BGM&textField1=42.4422&textField2=-76.5002&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.624044+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.307575757575755, 20.230303030303034 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.227272727272727, 21.090909090909093 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.3606060606060604, -0.8606060606060604 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Harvard Crimson at Cornell Big Red", "market": { "id": "401867829", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867829", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.157491+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.383300+00:00", "home_line": 7.0, "away_line": -7.0, "home_line_price": -116.0, "away_line_price": -107.0, "total": 41.5, "under_line": 41.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -113.0, "home_ml": 215.0, "away_ml": -279.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 7.0, "average_total": 41.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -5.813131313131311, "combined": 48.101010101010104, "spread_buffer": 1.1868686868686886, "total_difference": 6.601010101010104 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -5.813131313131311, "combined": 48.101010101010104, "spread_buffer": 1.1868686868686886, "total_difference": 6.601010101010104 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.7119864295450533, "combined": 49.85884530022639, "spread_buffer": 8.711986429545053, "total_difference": 8.358845300226392 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.7119864295450533, "combined": 49.85884530022639, "spread_buffer": 8.711986429545053, "total_difference": 8.358845300226392 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -9.122727272727268, "combined": 47.49242424242424, "spread_buffer": -2.1227272727272677, "total_difference": 5.992424242424242 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -9.122727272727268, "combined": 47.49242424242424, "spread_buffer": -2.1227272727272677, "total_difference": 5.992424242424242 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401867829", "matchup": "Harvard Crimson at Cornell Big Red", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Harvard Crimson", "line": -7.0, "price": -107.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867829", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.157491+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.383300+00:00", "home_line": 7.0, "away_line": -7.0, "home_line_price": -116.0, "away_line_price": -107.0, "total": 41.5, "under_line": 41.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -113.0, "home_ml": 215.0, "away_ml": -279.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 2.1227272727272677, "production_adjusted": 2.1227272727272677, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.077272727272721, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.95707070707071, 21.143939393939398 ], "directional_buffer": -1.1868686868686886, "scenario_minimum": -1.1868686868686886 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.07342943534067, 25.785415864885724 ], "directional_buffer": -8.711986429545053, "scenario_minimum": -8.711986429545053 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "directional_buffer": 2.1227272727272677, "scenario_minimum": 2.1227272727272677 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "directional_buffer": 2.1227272727272677, "scenario_minimum": 2.1227272727272677 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.307575757575755, 20.230303030303034 ], "directional_buffer": 1.077272727272721, "stressed_buffer": -1.922727272727279 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "directional_buffer": 2.1227272727272677, "stressed_buffer": -0.8772727272727323 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.307575757575755, 20.230303030303034 ], "directional_buffer": 1.077272727272721, "stressed_buffer": -1.922727272727279 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.307575757575755, 20.230303030303034 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.227272727272727, 21.090909090909093 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.3606060606060604, -0.8606060606060604 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ithaca&state=NY&site=BGM&textField1=42.4422&textField2=-76.5002&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401867829", "matchup": "Harvard Crimson at Cornell Big Red", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 41.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867829", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.157491+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.383300+00:00", "home_line": 7.0, "away_line": -7.0, "home_line_price": -116.0, "away_line_price": -107.0, "total": 41.5, "under_line": 41.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -113.0, "home_ml": 215.0, "away_ml": -279.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 5.992424242424242, "production_adjusted": 5.992424242424242, "minimum_all_scenarios": 5.992424242424242, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.95707070707071, 21.143939393939398 ], "directional_buffer": 6.601010101010104, "scenario_minimum": 6.601010101010104 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.07342943534067, 25.785415864885724 ], "directional_buffer": 8.358845300226392, "scenario_minimum": 8.358845300226392 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "directional_buffer": 5.992424242424242, "scenario_minimum": 5.992424242424242 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "directional_buffer": 5.992424242424242, "scenario_minimum": 5.992424242424242 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "directional_buffer": 5.992424242424242, "stressed_buffer": 2.992424242424242 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "directional_buffer": 5.992424242424242, "stressed_buffer": 2.992424242424242 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.307575757575755, 20.230303030303034 ], "directional_buffer": 7.037878787878789, "stressed_buffer": 4.037878787878789 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.307575757575755, 20.230303030303034 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.227272727272727, 21.090909090909093 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.3606060606060604, -0.8606060606060604 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ithaca&state=NY&site=BGM&textField1=42.4422&textField2=-76.5002&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -9.122727272727268, "combined": 47.49242424242424, "spread_buffer": -2.1227272727272677, "total_difference": 5.992424242424242 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -9.122727272727268, "combined": 47.49242424242424, "spread_buffer": -2.1227272727272677, "total_difference": 5.992424242424242 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401867829", "matchup": "Harvard Crimson at Cornell Big Red", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Harvard Crimson", "line": -7.0, "price": -107.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867829", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.157491+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.383300+00:00", "home_line": 7.0, "away_line": -7.0, "home_line_price": -116.0, "away_line_price": -107.0, "total": 41.5, "under_line": 41.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -113.0, "home_ml": 215.0, "away_ml": -279.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 2.1227272727272677, "production_adjusted": 2.1227272727272677, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.077272727272721, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.95707070707071, 21.143939393939398 ], "directional_buffer": -1.1868686868686886, "scenario_minimum": -1.1868686868686886 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.07342943534067, 25.785415864885724 ], "directional_buffer": -8.711986429545053, "scenario_minimum": -8.711986429545053 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "directional_buffer": 2.1227272727272677, "scenario_minimum": 2.1227272727272677 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "directional_buffer": 2.1227272727272677, "scenario_minimum": 2.1227272727272677 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.307575757575755, 20.230303030303034 ], "directional_buffer": 1.077272727272721, "stressed_buffer": -1.922727272727279 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "directional_buffer": 2.1227272727272677, "stressed_buffer": -0.8772727272727323 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.307575757575755, 20.230303030303034 ], "directional_buffer": 1.077272727272721, "stressed_buffer": -1.922727272727279 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.307575757575755, 20.230303030303034 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.227272727272727, 21.090909090909093 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.3606060606060604, -0.8606060606060604 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ithaca&state=NY&site=BGM&textField1=42.4422&textField2=-76.5002&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401867829", "matchup": "Harvard Crimson at Cornell Big Red", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 41.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867829", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.157491+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.383300+00:00", "home_line": 7.0, "away_line": -7.0, "home_line_price": -116.0, "away_line_price": -107.0, "total": 41.5, "under_line": 41.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -113.0, "home_ml": 215.0, "away_ml": -279.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 5.992424242424242, "production_adjusted": 5.992424242424242, "minimum_all_scenarios": 5.992424242424242, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.95707070707071, 21.143939393939398 ], "directional_buffer": 6.601010101010104, "scenario_minimum": 6.601010101010104 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.07342943534067, 25.785415864885724 ], "directional_buffer": 8.358845300226392, "scenario_minimum": 8.358845300226392 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "directional_buffer": 5.992424242424242, "scenario_minimum": 5.992424242424242 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "directional_buffer": 5.992424242424242, "scenario_minimum": 5.992424242424242 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "directional_buffer": 5.992424242424242, "stressed_buffer": 2.992424242424242 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "directional_buffer": 5.992424242424242, "stressed_buffer": 2.992424242424242 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.307575757575755, 20.230303030303034 ], "directional_buffer": 7.037878787878789, "stressed_buffer": 4.037878787878789 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.307575757575755, 20.230303030303034 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.227272727272727, 21.090909090909093 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.3606060606060604, -0.8606060606060604 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ithaca&state=NY&site=BGM&textField1=42.4422&textField2=-76.5002&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401867860", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867860", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3829", "fullName": "Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN)", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Terre Haute", "state": "IN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2754", "away_name": "Youngstown State Penguins", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "282", "home_name": "Indiana State Sycamores", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 36.008012820512825, 26.666666666666668 ], "adjusted_score": [ 36.008012820512825, 26.666666666666668 ], "conditional_score": [ 36.008012820512825, 26.666666666666668 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 36.61538461538461, 31.0 ], "current_rates": [ 36.833333333333336, 23.166666666666668 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 21.166666666666668, 39.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 28.333333333333332, 34.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 36.0, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 36.0, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 33.71701859673886, 30.194858826360154 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.71701859673886, 30.194858826360154 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.71701859673886, 30.194858826360154 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 30.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 30.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "adjusted_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "conditional_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 36.61538461538461, "pa": 31.0, "margin": 5.615384615384613, "event_ids": [ "401767549", "401767550", "401752834", "401767329", "401767546", "401767504", "401767440", "401767498", "401767513", "401767548", "401767452", "401767540", "401833975" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 36.833333333333336, "pa": 23.166666666666668, "margin": 13.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867894", "401856659", "401867895", "401867896", "401867885", "401867891" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.166666666666668, "pa": 39.583333333333336, "margin": -18.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767446", "401767172", "401752836", "401767099", "401767447", "401767448", "401767449", "401767450", "401767451", "401767443", "401767452", "401767453" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 28.333333333333332, "pa": 34.0, "margin": -5.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867855", "401858435", "401867856", "401867857", "401867858", "401867859" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 38.09935897435898, 26.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.41666666666667, 25.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.336538461538462, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 41.0, 23.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 41.0, 23.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "adjusted_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "conditional_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 36.61538461538461, "pa": 31.0, "margin": 5.615384615384613, "event_ids": [ "401767549", "401767550", "401752834", "401767329", "401767546", "401767504", "401767440", "401767498", "401767513", "401767548", "401767452", "401767540", "401833975" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 36.833333333333336, "pa": 23.166666666666668, "margin": 13.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867894", "401856659", "401867895", "401867896", "401867885", "401867891" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.166666666666668, "pa": 39.583333333333336, "margin": -18.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767446", "401767172", "401752836", "401767099", "401767447", "401767448", "401767449", "401767450", "401767451", "401767443", "401767452", "401767453" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 28.333333333333332, "pa": 34.0, "margin": -5.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867855", "401858435", "401867856", "401867857", "401867858", "401867859" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 38.09935897435898, 26.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.41666666666667, 25.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.336538461538462, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 41.0, 23.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 41.0, 23.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401867860", "matchup": "Youngstown State Penguins at Indiana State Sycamores", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Indiana State Sycamores: QB Brady Allen/Brock Riddle, RB Aaron Ball/Manny Ellis/Max McCool, WR Jayden Reed/Keshon Singleton/Dane Pardridge, TE Jaylan Johnson; Youngstown State Penguins: QB Beau Brungard, RB Jaden Gilbert/Antuan Gardner/Tahir Mills, WR Jeremiah Sanders/Lorenzo Jenkins/Bryan Hunt, TE Austin Bray/Alex McDonald", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.246794871794876 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 38.09935897435898, 26.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 35.41666666666667, 25.75 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.336538461538462, -2.8365384615384617 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 64, "off_points_proxy": 222, "def_points_proxy": 140, "off_plays": 477, "off_yards": 2973, "def_plays": 476, "def_yards": 2849, "early_plays": 363, "early_yards": 2349, "explosive_plays": 42, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856659", "401867885", "401867891", "401867894", "401867895", "401867896" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 3.5806451612903225, "def_ppd": 2.1875, "off_ypp": 6.232704402515723, "def_ypp": 5.985294117647059, "early_down_ypp": 6.471074380165289 }, "home": { "off_drives": 77, "def_drives": 76, "off_points_proxy": 169, "def_points_proxy": 201, "off_plays": 492, "off_yards": 3043, "def_plays": 557, "def_yards": 3142, "early_plays": 351, "early_yards": 1944, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858435", "401867855", "401867856", "401867857", "401867858", "401867859" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.1948051948051948, "def_ppd": 2.6447368421052633, "off_ypp": 6.184959349593496, "def_ypp": 5.640933572710951, "early_down_ypp": 5.538461538461538 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "282", "teamName": "Indiana State Sycamores", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867859", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Indiana State Sycamores at South Dakota Coyotes", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "The DakotaDome", "address": { "city": "Vermillion", "state": "SD", "zipCode": "57069", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "233", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "233", "displayName": "South Dakota Coyotes" } }, { "id": "282", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "282", "displayName": "Indiana State Sycamores" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gosycamores.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2754", "teamName": "Youngstown State Penguins", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867891", "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "name": "Youngstown State Penguins at Southern Illinois Salukis", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Saluki Stadium", "address": { "city": "Carbondale", "state": "IL", "zipCode": "62901", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "79", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "79", "displayName": "Southern Illinois Salukis" } }, { "id": "2754", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2754", "displayName": "Youngstown State Penguins" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ysusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Terre Haute. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Terre+Haute&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=39.4704&textField2=-87.3835&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.738836+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Tonight A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind 6 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867860", "matchup": "Youngstown State Penguins at Indiana State Sycamores", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Terre+Haute&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=39.4704&textField2=-87.3835&e=0", "https://gosycamores.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://ysusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401867860", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867860", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3829", "fullName": "Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN)", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Terre Haute", "state": "IN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2754", "away_name": "Youngstown State Penguins", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "282", "home_name": "Indiana State Sycamores", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 36.61538461538461, "pa": 31.0, "margin": 5.615384615384613, "event_ids": [ "401767549", "401767550", "401752834", "401767329", "401767546", "401767504", "401767440", "401767498", "401767513", "401767548", "401767452", "401767540", "401833975" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 36.833333333333336, "pa": 23.166666666666668, "margin": 13.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867894", "401856659", "401867895", "401867896", "401867885", "401867891" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.166666666666668, "pa": 39.583333333333336, "margin": -18.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767446", "401767172", "401752836", "401767099", "401767447", "401767448", "401767449", "401767450", "401767451", "401767443", "401767452", "401767453" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 28.333333333333332, "pa": 34.0, "margin": -5.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867855", "401858435", "401867856", "401867857", "401867858", "401867859" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 38.09935897435898, 26.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.41666666666667, 25.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.336538461538462, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 21.094551282051285, 61.094551282051285 ], "home": [ 3.0801282051282044, 43.080128205128204 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401867860", "matchup": "Youngstown State Penguins at Indiana State Sycamores", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3829", "guid": "8e6afee1-3c91-339b-9b44-32d24a6f174a", "fullName": "Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN)", "address": { "city": "Terre Haute", "state": "IN", "zipCode": "47803", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "282", "teamName": "Indiana State Sycamores", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867859", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Indiana State Sycamores at South Dakota Coyotes", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "The DakotaDome", "address": { "city": "Vermillion", "state": "SD", "zipCode": "57069", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "233", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "233", "displayName": "South Dakota Coyotes" } }, { "id": "282", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "282", "displayName": "Indiana State Sycamores" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gosycamores.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2754", "teamName": "Youngstown State Penguins", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867891", "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "name": "Youngstown State Penguins at Southern Illinois Salukis", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Saluki Stadium", "address": { "city": "Carbondale", "state": "IL", "zipCode": "62901", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "79", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "79", "displayName": "Southern Illinois Salukis" } }, { "id": "2754", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2754", "displayName": "Youngstown State Penguins" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ysusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Terre Haute. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#282", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2754" ], "finding": "Indiana State Sycamores: QB Brady Allen/Brock Riddle, RB Aaron Ball/Manny Ellis/Max McCool, WR Jayden Reed/Keshon Singleton/Dane Pardridge, TE Jaylan Johnson; Youngstown State Penguins: QB Beau Brungard, RB Jaden Gilbert/Antuan Gardner/Tahir Mills, WR Jeremiah Sanders/Lorenzo Jenkins/Bryan Hunt, TE Austin Bray/Alex McDonald" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "282", "teamName": "Indiana State Sycamores", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867859", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Indiana State Sycamores at South Dakota Coyotes", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "The DakotaDome", "address": { "city": "Vermillion", "state": "SD", "zipCode": "57069", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "233", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "233", "displayName": "South Dakota Coyotes" } }, { "id": "282", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "282", "displayName": "Indiana State Sycamores" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gosycamores.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2754", "teamName": "Youngstown State Penguins", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867891", "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "name": "Youngstown State Penguins at Southern Illinois Salukis", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Saluki Stadium", "address": { "city": "Carbondale", "state": "IL", "zipCode": "62901", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "79", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "79", "displayName": "Southern Illinois Salukis" } }, { "id": "2754", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2754", "displayName": "Youngstown State Penguins" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ysusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Terre Haute. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Terre+Haute&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=39.4704&textField2=-87.3835&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.738836+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Tonight A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind 6 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.246794871794876 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 38.09935897435898, 26.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 35.41666666666667, 25.75 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.336538461538462, -2.8365384615384617 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Youngstown State Penguins at Indiana State Sycamores", "market": { "id": "401867860", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867860", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.163504+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.448152+00:00", "home_line": 19.5, "away_line": -19.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -113.0, "total": 64.5, "under_line": 64.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -113.0, "home_ml": 800.0, "away_ml": -1620.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 19.5, "average_total": 64.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -9.341346153846157, "combined": 62.67467948717949, "spread_buffer": 10.158653846153843, "total_difference": -1.825320512820511 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -9.341346153846157, "combined": 62.67467948717949, "spread_buffer": 10.158653846153843, "total_difference": -1.825320512820511 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -3.522159770378707, "combined": 63.911877423099014, "spread_buffer": 15.977840229621293, "total_difference": -0.5881225769009859 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -3.522159770378707, "combined": 63.911877423099014, "spread_buffer": 15.977840229621293, "total_difference": -0.5881225769009859 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 16.0, "pa": 25.6, "margin": -9.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401767741", "401773707", "401773726", "401777970", "401773718", "401777971", "401777972", "401777973", "401777974", "401773715" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.6, "pa": 23.8, "margin": -5.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401907454", "401907475", "401907476", "401907477", "401907478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 26.692307692307693, "pa": 22.923076923076923, "margin": 3.76923076923077, "event_ids": [ "401757167", "401767741", "401767742", "401767743", "401767697", "401767660", "401767744", "401767745", "401767746", "401767747", "401767748", "401767749", "401836102" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 26.25, "pa": 42.75, "margin": -16.5, "event_ids": [ "401867882", "401866419", "401867898", "401867899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.46153846153846, 26.146153846153847 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.675, 25.025 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.2069230769230771, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 18.0, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.0, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 16.0, "pa": 25.6, "margin": -9.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401767741", "401773707", "401773726", "401777970", "401773718", "401777971", "401777972", "401777973", "401777974", "401773715" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.6, "pa": 23.8, "margin": -5.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401907454", "401907475", "401907476", "401907477", "401907478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 26.692307692307693, "pa": 22.923076923076923, "margin": 3.76923076923077, "event_ids": [ "401757167", "401767741", "401767742", "401767743", "401767697", "401767660", "401767744", "401767745", "401767746", "401767747", "401767748", "401767749", "401836102" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 26.25, "pa": 42.75, "margin": -16.5, "event_ids": [ "401867882", "401866419", "401867898", "401867899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.46153846153846, 26.146153846153847 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.675, 25.025 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.2069230769230771, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 18.0, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.0, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401867907", "matchup": "American International Yellow Jackets at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "risks": [ { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils: QB Brett Griffis/Conner Kenyon, RB Davon Smith Jr./John Manning IV/Kendal Donovan, WR Damani Williams/Michael Trovarelli/Donovan Wadley, TE Ryan Turley; American International Yellow Jackets: QB Daron Bryden/Lukas Kasko, RB Bo Catherwood/Judah Varfley, WR Hardley Gilmore/Christopher Washington/Jovanny Brown, TE Jayden Vega/Xavier Hullum", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 23.46807692307692, 34.2925 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 19.46153846153846, 26.146153846153847 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.675, 25.025 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -7.206923076923077, 8.706923076923077 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 0, "def_drives": 0, "off_points_proxy": 0, "def_points_proxy": 0, "off_plays": 0, "off_yards": 0, "def_plays": 0, "def_yards": 0, "early_plays": 0, "early_yards": 0, "explosive_plays": 0, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401907454", "401907475", "401907476", "401907477", "401907478" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": null, "def_ppd": null, "off_ypp": null, "def_ypp": null, "early_down_ypp": null }, "home": { "off_drives": 49, "def_drives": 49, "off_points_proxy": 85, "def_points_proxy": 164, "off_plays": 340, "off_yards": 1879, "def_plays": 318, "def_yards": 2383, "early_plays": 243, "early_yards": 1419, "explosive_plays": 27, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866419", "401867882", "401867898", "401867899" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 1.7346938775510203, "def_ppd": 3.3469387755102042, "off_ypp": 5.526470588235294, "def_ypp": 7.4937106918239, "early_down_ypp": 5.839506172839506 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2115", "teamName": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867899", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Wagner Seahawks at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Arute Field", "address": { "city": "New Britain", "state": "CT", "zipCode": "06053", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2115", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 45.0, "displayValue": "45" }, "team": { "id": "2115", "displayName": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils" } }, { "id": "2681", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2681", "displayName": "Wagner Seahawks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ccsubluedevils.com/sports/fball/2026-27/schedule", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue", "scheduleExplanation": "Official current schedule says Today, with matching opponent and kickoff; retained at current Eastern date." }, { "teamId": "2022", "teamName": "American International Yellow Jackets", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401907478", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at American International Yellow Jackets", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Ronald J. Abdow Field", "address": { "city": "Springfield", "state": "MA", "zipCode": "01109", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2022", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2022", "displayName": "American International Yellow Jackets" } }, { "id": "112334", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "112334", "displayName": "Franklin Pierce Ravens" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://aicyellowjackets.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to New Britain. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Britain&state=CT&site=BOX&textField1=41.6751&textField2=-72.7878&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.878695+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Light north wind. Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 45. Calm wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867907", "matchup": "American International Yellow Jackets at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "risks": [ { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://aicyellowjackets.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://ccsubluedevils.com/sports/fball/2026-27/schedule", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Britain&state=CT&site=BOX&textField1=41.6751&textField2=-72.7878&e=0" ], "tu": { "id": "401867907", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867907", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3624", "fullName": "Arute Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "New Britain", "state": "CT", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2022", "away_name": "American International Yellow Jackets", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2115", "home_name": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 16.0, "pa": 25.6, "margin": -9.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401767741", "401773707", "401773726", "401777970", "401773718", "401777971", "401777972", "401777973", "401777974", "401773715" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.6, "pa": 23.8, "margin": -5.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401907454", "401907475", "401907476", "401907477", "401907478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 26.692307692307693, "pa": 22.923076923076923, "margin": 3.76923076923077, "event_ids": [ "401757167", "401767741", "401767742", "401767743", "401767697", "401767660", "401767744", "401767745", "401767746", "401767747", "401767748", "401767749", "401836102" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 26.25, "pa": 42.75, "margin": -16.5, "event_ids": [ "401867882", "401866419", "401867898", "401867899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.46153846153846, 26.146153846153847 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.675, 25.025 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.2069230769230771, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0, 41.861346153846156 ], "home": [ 10.292499999999997, 58.2925 ], "team_allowance": 24, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401867907", "matchup": "American International Yellow Jackets at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3624", "guid": "e90458e2-b564-3a3b-947e-c13f4083b614", "fullName": "Arute Field", "address": { "city": "New Britain", "state": "CT", "zipCode": "06053", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2115", "teamName": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867899", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Wagner Seahawks at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Arute Field", "address": { "city": "New Britain", "state": "CT", "zipCode": "06053", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2115", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 45.0, "displayValue": "45" }, "team": { "id": "2115", "displayName": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils" } }, { "id": "2681", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2681", "displayName": "Wagner Seahawks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ccsubluedevils.com/sports/fball/2026-27/schedule", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue", "scheduleExplanation": "Official current schedule says Today, with matching opponent and kickoff; retained at current Eastern date." }, { "teamId": "2022", "teamName": "American International Yellow Jackets", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401907478", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at American International Yellow Jackets", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Ronald J. Abdow Field", "address": { "city": "Springfield", "state": "MA", "zipCode": "01109", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2022", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2022", "displayName": "American International Yellow Jackets" } }, { "id": "112334", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "112334", "displayName": "Franklin Pierce Ravens" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://aicyellowjackets.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to New Britain. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2115", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2022" ], "finding": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils: QB Brett Griffis/Conner Kenyon, RB Davon Smith Jr./John Manning IV/Kendal Donovan, WR Damani Williams/Michael Trovarelli/Donovan Wadley, TE Ryan Turley; American International Yellow Jackets: QB Daron Bryden/Lukas Kasko, RB Bo Catherwood/Judah Varfley, WR Hardley Gilmore/Christopher Washington/Jovanny Brown, TE Jayden Vega/Xavier Hullum" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2115", "teamName": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867899", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Wagner Seahawks at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Arute Field", "address": { "city": "New Britain", "state": "CT", "zipCode": "06053", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2115", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 45.0, "displayValue": "45" }, "team": { "id": "2115", "displayName": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils" } }, { "id": "2681", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2681", "displayName": "Wagner Seahawks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ccsubluedevils.com/sports/fball/2026-27/schedule", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue", "scheduleExplanation": "Official current schedule says Today, with matching opponent and kickoff; retained at current Eastern date." }, { "teamId": "2022", "teamName": "American International Yellow Jackets", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401907478", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at American International Yellow Jackets", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Ronald J. Abdow Field", "address": { "city": "Springfield", "state": "MA", "zipCode": "01109", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2022", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2022", "displayName": "American International Yellow Jackets" } }, { "id": "112334", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "112334", "displayName": "Franklin Pierce Ravens" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://aicyellowjackets.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to New Britain. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Britain&state=CT&site=BOX&textField1=41.6751&textField2=-72.7878&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.878695+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Light north wind. Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 45. Calm wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.; NON-DI OPPONENT sample: preserve engine eligibility and missing-history gates.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [ { "teamId": "2115", "error": "404 Client Error: Not Found for url: https://ccsubluedevils.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" }, { "teamId": "2022", "error": "HTTPSConnectionPool(host='aicyellowjackets.com', port=443): Read timed out. (read timeout=25)" } ], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 23.46807692307692, 34.2925 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 19.46153846153846, 26.146153846153847 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.675, 25.025 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -7.206923076923077, 8.706923076923077 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "American International Yellow Jackets at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "market": { "id": "401867907", "quotes": [], "average_home_line": null, "average_total": null, "spread_quote_count": 0, "total_quote_count": 0, "average_status": "UNAVAILABLE", "complete_required_market": false }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 3.130769230769232, "combined": 49.66643356643357, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": 3.130769230769232, "combined": 49.66643356643357, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 11.308606121290651, "combined": 50.066678228920004, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": 11.308606121290651, "combined": 50.066678228920004, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 16.43115384615384, "combined": 52.15384615384615, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": 16.43115384615384, "combined": 52.15384615384615, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401867907", "matchup": "American International Yellow Jackets at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } } ], "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Britain&state=CT&site=BOX&textField1=41.6751&textField2=-72.7878&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Light north wind.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401867907", "matchup": "American International Yellow Jackets at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } } ], "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Britain&state=CT&site=BOX&textField1=41.6751&textField2=-72.7878&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Light north wind.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 16.43115384615384, "combined": 52.15384615384615, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": 16.43115384615384, "combined": 52.15384615384615, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401867907", "matchup": "American International Yellow Jackets at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } } ], "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Britain&state=CT&site=BOX&textField1=41.6751&textField2=-72.7878&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Light north wind.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401867907", "matchup": "American International Yellow Jackets at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } } ], "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Britain&state=CT&site=BOX&textField1=41.6751&textField2=-72.7878&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Light north wind.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "401867911", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867911", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3623", "fullName": "Arthur J. Rooney Athletic Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Pittsburgh", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2341", "away_name": "Long Island University Sharks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2184", "home_name": "Duquesne Dukes", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.1125, 25.633333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.1125, 25.633333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.1125, 25.633333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 16.416666666666668, 18.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 14.333333333333334, 32.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 28.416666666666668, 25.25 ], "current_rates": [ 18.25, 38.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22.0, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.885991166281332, 29.714607660376736 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.885991166281332, 29.714607660376736 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.885991166281332, 29.714607660376736 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18.0, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.0, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.416666666666668, "pa": 18.833333333333332, "margin": -2.4166666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401752668", "401762795", "401767659", "401767319", "401767758", "401767757", "401767759", "401779510", "401767746", "401767755", "401767760", "401767761" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 14.333333333333334, "pa": 32.0, "margin": -17.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401867874", "401856769", "401866632", "401867908", "401867909", "401867910" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.416666666666668, "pa": 25.25, "margin": 3.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754520", "401767750", "401767733", "401762821", "401779328", "401767751", "401767752", "401767753", "401767754", "401767755", "401767748", "401767756" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 18.25, "pa": 38.0, "margin": -19.75, "event_ids": [ "401864496", "401867895", "401860890", "401870839" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 23.625 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.166666666666668, 25.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.34999999999999964, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23.0, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.416666666666668, "pa": 18.833333333333332, "margin": -2.4166666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401752668", "401762795", "401767659", "401767319", "401767758", "401767757", "401767759", "401779510", "401767746", "401767755", "401767760", "401767761" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 14.333333333333334, "pa": 32.0, "margin": -17.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401867874", "401856769", "401866632", "401867908", "401867909", "401867910" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.416666666666668, "pa": 25.25, "margin": 3.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754520", "401767750", "401767733", "401762821", "401779328", "401767751", "401767752", "401767753", "401767754", "401767755", "401767748", "401767756" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 18.25, "pa": 38.0, "margin": -19.75, "event_ids": [ "401864496", "401867895", "401860890", "401870839" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 23.625 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.166666666666668, 25.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.34999999999999964, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23.0, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401867911", "matchup": "Long Island University Sharks at Duquesne Dukes", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Duquesne Dukes: QB Carson Camp/Logan Kushner, RB Ness Davis/Cam Oliver/Shawn Solomon Jr, WR Ryan Petras/Trey Graham/Myles Walker, TE Noah Canty/Garrett Harrold; Long Island University Sharks: QB Luca Stanzani/Mekhi Moore, RB Sam Slade/Jesiah Mcknight/Chris Howell, WR Evan Brooks/Josiah Brown/Jayden Simpson, TE Gianni Marino/Tristin McFarland", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.81666666666667, 26.225 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 23.625 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.166666666666668, 25.125 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.34999999999999964, 1.8499999999999996 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 63, "def_drives": 64, "off_points_proxy": 80, "def_points_proxy": 193, "off_plays": 469, "off_yards": 2135, "def_plays": 472, "def_yards": 3152, "early_plays": 320, "early_yards": 1065, "explosive_plays": 27, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856769", "401866632", "401867874", "401867908", "401867909", "401867910" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.2698412698412698, "def_ppd": 3.015625, "off_ypp": 4.552238805970149, "def_ypp": 6.677966101694915, "early_down_ypp": 3.328125 }, "home": { "off_drives": 46, "def_drives": 44, "off_points_proxy": 72, "def_points_proxy": 141, "off_plays": 309, "off_yards": 1473, "def_plays": 328, "def_yards": 1972, "early_plays": 215, "early_yards": 985, "explosive_plays": 20, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401860890", "401864496", "401867895", "401870839" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 1.565217391304348, "def_ppd": 3.2045454545454546, "off_ypp": 4.766990291262136, "def_ypp": 6.012195121951219, "early_down_ypp": 4.5813953488372094 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2184", "teamName": "Duquesne Dukes", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401870839", "date": "2026-09-26T16:00Z", "name": "Rio Grande Red Storm at Duquesne Dukes", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Arthur J. Rooney Athletic Field", "address": { "city": "Pittsburgh", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "15282", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2184", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 53.0, "displayValue": "53" }, "team": { "id": "2184", "displayName": "Duquesne Dukes" } }, { "id": "131239", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "131239", "displayName": "Rio Grande Red Storm" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goduquesne.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2341", "teamName": "Long Island University Sharks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867910", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Mercyhurst Lakers at Long Island University Sharks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Shark Stadium", "address": { "city": "Brookville", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2341", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "2341", "displayName": "Long Island University Sharks" } }, { "id": "2385", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2385", "displayName": "Mercyhurst Lakers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://liuathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Pittsburgh. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Pittsburgh&state=PA&site=PBZ&textField1=40.4392&textField2=-79.9767&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.909683+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Light east wind becoming southeast 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Tonight Showers, mainly after 2am. Low around 57. East wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867911", "matchup": "Long Island University Sharks at Duquesne Dukes", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Pittsburgh&state=PA&site=PBZ&textField1=40.4392&textField2=-79.9767&e=0", "https://goduquesne.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://liuathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401867911", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867911", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3623", "fullName": "Arthur J. Rooney Athletic Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Pittsburgh", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2341", "away_name": "Long Island University Sharks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2184", "home_name": "Duquesne Dukes", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.416666666666668, "pa": 18.833333333333332, "margin": -2.4166666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401752668", "401762795", "401767659", "401767319", "401767758", "401767757", "401767759", "401779510", "401767746", "401767755", "401767760", "401767761" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 14.333333333333334, "pa": 32.0, "margin": -17.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401867874", "401856769", "401866632", "401867908", "401867909", "401867910" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.416666666666668, "pa": 25.25, "margin": 3.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754520", "401767750", "401767733", "401762821", "401779328", "401767751", "401767752", "401767753", "401767754", "401767755", "401767748", "401767756" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 18.25, "pa": 38.0, "margin": -19.75, "event_ids": [ "401864496", "401867895", "401860890", "401870839" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 23.625 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.166666666666668, 25.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.34999999999999964, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 3.1499999999999986, 43.15 ], "home": [ 6.225000000000001, 46.225 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401867911", "matchup": "Long Island University Sharks at Duquesne Dukes", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3623", "guid": "94de2053-bc27-387f-add5-402706bd63b4", "fullName": "Arthur J. Rooney Athletic Field", "address": { "city": "Pittsburgh", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "15282", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2184", "teamName": "Duquesne Dukes", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401870839", "date": "2026-09-26T16:00Z", "name": "Rio Grande Red Storm at Duquesne Dukes", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Arthur J. Rooney Athletic Field", "address": { "city": "Pittsburgh", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "15282", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2184", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 53.0, "displayValue": "53" }, "team": { "id": "2184", "displayName": "Duquesne Dukes" } }, { "id": "131239", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "131239", "displayName": "Rio Grande Red Storm" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goduquesne.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2341", "teamName": "Long Island University Sharks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867910", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Mercyhurst Lakers at Long Island University Sharks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Shark Stadium", "address": { "city": "Brookville", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2341", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "2341", "displayName": "Long Island University Sharks" } }, { "id": "2385", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2385", "displayName": "Mercyhurst Lakers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://liuathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Pittsburgh. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2184", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2341" ], "finding": "Duquesne Dukes: QB Carson Camp/Logan Kushner, RB Ness Davis/Cam Oliver/Shawn Solomon Jr, WR Ryan Petras/Trey Graham/Myles Walker, TE Noah Canty/Garrett Harrold; Long Island University Sharks: QB Luca Stanzani/Mekhi Moore, RB Sam Slade/Jesiah Mcknight/Chris Howell, WR Evan Brooks/Josiah Brown/Jayden Simpson, TE Gianni Marino/Tristin McFarland" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2184", "teamName": "Duquesne Dukes", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401870839", "date": "2026-09-26T16:00Z", "name": "Rio Grande Red Storm at Duquesne Dukes", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Arthur J. Rooney Athletic Field", "address": { "city": "Pittsburgh", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "15282", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2184", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 53.0, "displayValue": "53" }, "team": { "id": "2184", "displayName": "Duquesne Dukes" } }, { "id": "131239", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "131239", "displayName": "Rio Grande Red Storm" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goduquesne.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2341", "teamName": "Long Island University Sharks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867910", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Mercyhurst Lakers at Long Island University Sharks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Shark Stadium", "address": { "city": "Brookville", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2341", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "2341", "displayName": "Long Island University Sharks" } }, { "id": "2385", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2385", "displayName": "Mercyhurst Lakers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://liuathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Pittsburgh. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Pittsburgh&state=PA&site=PBZ&textField1=40.4392&textField2=-79.9767&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.909683+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Light east wind becoming southeast 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Tonight Showers, mainly after 2am. Low around 57. East wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.81666666666667, 26.225 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 23.625 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.166666666666668, 25.125 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.34999999999999964, 1.8499999999999996 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Long Island University Sharks at Duquesne Dukes", "market": { "id": "401867911", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867911", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.338542+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.606802+00:00", "home_line": -3.0, "away_line": 3.0, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 45.5, "under_line": 45.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -161.0, "away_ml": 129.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -3.0, "average_total": 45.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 3.520833333333332, "combined": 47.74583333333334, "spread_buffer": 0.5208333333333321, "total_difference": 2.245833333333337 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 3.520833333333332, "combined": 47.74583333333334, "spread_buffer": 0.5208333333333321, "total_difference": 2.245833333333337 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 11.828616494095403, "combined": 47.60059882665807, "spread_buffer": 8.828616494095403, "total_difference": 2.1005988266580715 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 11.828616494095403, "combined": 47.60059882665807, "spread_buffer": 8.828616494095403, "total_difference": 2.1005988266580715 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 3.075000000000003, "combined": 49.375, "spread_buffer": 0.07500000000000284, "total_difference": 3.875 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 3.075000000000003, "combined": 49.375, "spread_buffer": 0.07500000000000284, "total_difference": 3.875 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401867911", "matchup": "Long Island University Sharks at Duquesne Dukes", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Duquesne Dukes", "line": -3.0, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867911", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.338542+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.606802+00:00", "home_line": -3.0, "away_line": 3.0, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 45.5, "under_line": 45.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -161.0, "away_ml": 129.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 0.07500000000000284, "production_adjusted": 0.07500000000000284, "minimum_all_scenarios": -2.5916666666666686, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.1125, 25.633333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 0.5208333333333321, "scenario_minimum": 0.5208333333333321 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.885991166281332, 29.714607660376736 ], "directional_buffer": 8.828616494095403, "scenario_minimum": 8.828616494095403 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "directional_buffer": 0.07500000000000284, "scenario_minimum": 0.07500000000000284 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "directional_buffer": 0.07500000000000284, "scenario_minimum": 0.07500000000000284 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.81666666666667, 26.225 ], "directional_buffer": -2.5916666666666686, "stressed_buffer": -5.591666666666669 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "directional_buffer": 0.07500000000000284, "stressed_buffer": -2.924999999999997 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.81666666666667, 26.225 ], "directional_buffer": -2.5916666666666686, "stressed_buffer": -5.591666666666669 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.81666666666667, 26.225 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Light east wind becoming southeast 6 to 11 mph in the morning.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 23.8, "pa": 17.1, "margin": 6.699999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401789174", "401773716", "401773717", "401773709", "401773718", "401773719", "401773720", "401773721", "401773723", "401773724" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36.0, "pa": 26.75, "margin": 9.25, "event_ids": [ "401868262", "401907511", "401907506", "401907478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.25, "pa": 24.75, "margin": 7.5, "event_ids": [ "401757219", "401767332", "401767341", "401767342", "401767343", "401767259", "401767344", "401767345", "401767346", "401767347", "401767348", "401767349" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 21.666666666666668, "pa": 29.5, "margin": -7.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866615", "401867692", "401867953", "401862777", "401866649", "401866655" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.275, 24.675 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.75, 24.208333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.6283333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 23.0, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401867954", "matchup": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at Delaware State Hornets", "risks": [ { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Delaware State Hornets: QB Ui Ale/Noah Brannock, RB Jayden Jenkins/Sean Weston Jr./Kobe Boykin, WR Jaylin Terzado/Bronseman Davis Jr./Nathan Stewart, TE Jaron Kelley/Daniel Smith; Franklin Pierce Ravens: QB Kevin Leal/Shawn Brown, RB Anthony Johnson/Jaden Griffin, WR Joseph Mugovero/Tristan Evans/Raj Hillhouse, TE Connor Marchi", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 27.378333333333334, 31.313333333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.275, 24.675 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.75, 24.208333333333336 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -5.371666666666667, 6.871666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 9, "def_drives": 9, "off_points_proxy": 20, "def_points_proxy": 28, "off_plays": 84, "off_yards": 478, "def_plays": 71, "def_yards": 418, "early_plays": 58, "early_yards": 205, "explosive_plays": 9, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868262", "401907478", "401907506", "401907511" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.2222222222222223, "def_ppd": 3.111111111111111, "off_ypp": 5.690476190476191, "def_ypp": 5.887323943661972, "early_down_ypp": 3.5344827586206895 }, "home": { "off_drives": 72, "def_drives": 71, "off_points_proxy": 130, "def_points_proxy": 180, "off_plays": 513, "off_yards": 3145, "def_plays": 477, "def_yards": 2765, "early_plays": 369, "early_yards": 2250, "explosive_plays": 42, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862777", "401866615", "401866649", "401866655", "401867692", "401867953" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.8055555555555556, "def_ppd": 2.535211267605634, "off_ypp": 6.1306042884990255, "def_ypp": 5.79664570230608, "early_down_ypp": 6.097560975609756 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2169", "teamName": "Delaware State Hornets", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866655", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Delaware State Hornets at UAlbany Great Danes", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey Stadium", "address": { "city": "Albany", "state": "NY", "zipCode": "12222", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "399", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "399", "displayName": "UAlbany Great Danes" } }, { "id": "2169", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2169", "displayName": "Delaware State Hornets" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://dsuhornets.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "112334", "teamName": "Franklin Pierce Ravens", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401907478", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at American International Yellow Jackets", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Ronald J. Abdow Field", "address": { "city": "Springfield", "state": "MA", "zipCode": "01109", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2022", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2022", "displayName": "American International Yellow Jackets" } }, { "id": "112334", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "112334", "displayName": "Franklin Pierce Ravens" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://fpuravens.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Dover. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dover&state=DE&site=PHI&textField1=39.1587&textField2=-75.5174&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.909683+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Tonight A chance of rain after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867954", "matchup": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at Delaware State Hornets", "risks": [ { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://dsuhornets.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dover&state=DE&site=PHI&textField1=39.1587&textField2=-75.5174&e=1", "https://fpuravens.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401867954", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867954", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3613", "fullName": "Alumni Stadium (DE)", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Dover", "state": "DE", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "112334", "away_name": "Franklin Pierce Ravens", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2169", "home_name": "Delaware State Hornets", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 23.8, "pa": 17.1, "margin": 6.699999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401789174", "401773716", "401773717", "401773709", "401773718", "401773719", "401773720", "401773721", "401773723", "401773724" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36.0, "pa": 26.75, "margin": 9.25, "event_ids": [ "401868262", "401907511", "401907506", "401907478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.25, "pa": 24.75, "margin": 7.5, "event_ids": [ "401757219", "401767332", "401767341", "401767342", "401767343", "401767259", "401767344", "401767345", "401767346", "401767347", "401767348", "401767349" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 21.666666666666668, "pa": 29.5, "margin": -7.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866615", "401867692", "401867953", "401862777", "401866649", "401866655" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.275, 24.675 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.75, 24.208333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.6283333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0, 47.14083333333333 ], "home": [ 7.313333333333336, 55.31333333333333 ], "team_allowance": 24, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401867954", "matchup": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at Delaware State Hornets", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3613", "guid": "6ce638b8-d7d9-3d63-a607-f8fd8daf8062", "fullName": "Alumni Stadium (DE)", "address": { "city": "Dover", "state": "DE", "zipCode": "19901", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2169", "teamName": "Delaware State Hornets", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866655", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Delaware State Hornets at UAlbany Great Danes", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey Stadium", "address": { "city": "Albany", "state": "NY", "zipCode": "12222", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "399", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "399", "displayName": "UAlbany Great Danes" } }, { "id": "2169", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2169", "displayName": "Delaware State Hornets" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://dsuhornets.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "112334", "teamName": "Franklin Pierce Ravens", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401907478", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at American International Yellow Jackets", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Ronald J. Abdow Field", "address": { "city": "Springfield", "state": "MA", "zipCode": "01109", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2022", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2022", "displayName": "American International Yellow Jackets" } }, { "id": "112334", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "112334", "displayName": "Franklin Pierce Ravens" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://fpuravens.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Dover. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2169", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#112334" ], "finding": "Delaware State Hornets: QB Ui Ale/Noah Brannock, RB Jayden Jenkins/Sean Weston Jr./Kobe Boykin, WR Jaylin Terzado/Bronseman Davis Jr./Nathan Stewart, TE Jaron Kelley/Daniel Smith; Franklin Pierce Ravens: QB Kevin Leal/Shawn Brown, RB Anthony Johnson/Jaden Griffin, WR Joseph Mugovero/Tristan Evans/Raj Hillhouse, TE Connor Marchi" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2169", "teamName": "Delaware State Hornets", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866655", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Delaware State Hornets at UAlbany Great Danes", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey Stadium", "address": { "city": "Albany", "state": "NY", "zipCode": "12222", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "399", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "399", "displayName": "UAlbany Great Danes" } }, { "id": "2169", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2169", "displayName": "Delaware State Hornets" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://dsuhornets.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "112334", "teamName": "Franklin Pierce Ravens", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401907478", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at American International Yellow Jackets", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Ronald J. Abdow Field", "address": { "city": "Springfield", "state": "MA", "zipCode": "01109", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2022", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2022", "displayName": "American International Yellow Jackets" } }, { "id": "112334", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "112334", "displayName": "Franklin Pierce Ravens" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://fpuravens.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Dover. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dover&state=DE&site=PHI&textField1=39.1587&textField2=-75.5174&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.909683+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Tonight A chance of rain after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.; NON-DI OPPONENT sample: preserve engine eligibility and missing-history gates.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 27.378333333333334, 31.313333333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.275, 24.675 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.75, 24.208333333333336 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -5.371666666666667, 6.871666666666667 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at Delaware State Hornets", "market": { "id": "401867954", "quotes": [], "average_home_line": null, "average_total": null, "spread_quote_count": 0, "total_quote_count": 0, "average_status": "UNAVAILABLE", "complete_required_market": false }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -2.4433333333333316, "combined": 51.861666666666665, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": -2.4433333333333316, "combined": 51.861666666666665, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 4.066736086615137, "combined": 53.15644920860457, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": 4.066736086615137, "combined": 53.15644920860457, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 8.172500000000003, "combined": 54.454166666666666, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": 8.172500000000003, "combined": 54.454166666666666, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401867954", "matchup": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at Delaware State Hornets", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } } ], "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dover&state=DE&site=PHI&textField1=39.1587&textField2=-75.5174&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the morning.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401867954", "matchup": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at Delaware State Hornets", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } } ], "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dover&state=DE&site=PHI&textField1=39.1587&textField2=-75.5174&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the morning.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 8.172500000000003, "combined": 54.454166666666666, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": 8.172500000000003, "combined": 54.454166666666666, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401867954", "matchup": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at Delaware State Hornets", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } } ], "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dover&state=DE&site=PHI&textField1=39.1587&textField2=-75.5174&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the morning.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401867954", "matchup": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at Delaware State Hornets", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } } ], "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dover&state=DE&site=PHI&textField1=39.1587&textField2=-75.5174&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the morning.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "401867960", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867960", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3730", "fullName": "Franklin Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "47", "away_name": "Howard Bison", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "219", "home_name": "Pennsylvania Quakers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.679292929292927, 26.634343434343435 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.679292929292927, 26.634343434343435 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.679292929292927, 26.634343434343435 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 19.833333333333332, 24.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 17.2, 35.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 27.1, 26.5 ], "current_rates": [ 12.333333333333334, 13.666666666666666 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 16.083372109830762, 30.711137583013304 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.083372109830762, 30.711137583013304 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.083372109830762, 30.711137583013304 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 16.0, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.0, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.833333333333332, "pa": 24.583333333333332, "margin": -4.75, "event_ids": [ "401767350", "401762462", "401767351", "401767182", "401767352", "401767353", "401767227", "401767354", "401767355", "401767396", "401767348", "401767397" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.2, "pa": 35.6, "margin": -18.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401867935", "401869127", "401858439", "401858468", "401866656" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 27.1, "pa": 26.5, "margin": 0.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401767772", "401767734", "401767698", "401767629", "401767683", "401788997", "401767555", "401767694", "401767707", "401788996" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 12.333333333333334, "pa": 13.666666666666666, "margin": -1.3333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401867991", "401868034", "401867835" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.166666666666664, 25.84166666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 15.433333333333334, 23.96666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.241666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.0, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.0, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.833333333333332, "pa": 24.583333333333332, "margin": -4.75, "event_ids": [ "401767350", "401762462", "401767351", "401767182", "401767352", "401767353", "401767227", "401767354", "401767355", "401767396", "401767348", "401767397" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.2, "pa": 35.6, "margin": -18.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401867935", "401869127", "401858439", "401858468", "401866656" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 27.1, "pa": 26.5, "margin": 0.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401767772", "401767734", "401767698", "401767629", "401767683", "401788997", "401767555", "401767694", "401767707", "401788996" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 12.333333333333334, "pa": 13.666666666666666, "margin": -1.3333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401867991", "401868034", "401867835" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.166666666666664, 25.84166666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 15.433333333333334, 23.96666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.241666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.0, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.0, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401867960", "matchup": "Howard Bison at Pennsylvania Quakers", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Pennsylvania Quakers: QB Miles Teodecki, RB Donte West/Tommy Lafayette/Sean Williams Jr, WR Mason Page/Isaac Lee/Simon Cofrancesco, TE Dante Barone/Jack Donnelly; Howard Bison: QB Ja'Shawn Scroggins/Isaiah Freeman, RB Eden James/Travis Kerney/Billy Roberson II, WR Semaj Pierre/Zaden Jackson/Se'Quan Osborne, TE Nathanial Clark", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. Current .50 influence cap violation: PASS required.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 20.924999999999997, 28.645833333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.166666666666664, 25.84166666666667 ], "currentMatchup": [ 15.433333333333334, 23.96666666666667 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -2.241666666666667, 3.741666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 60, "off_points_proxy": 78, "def_points_proxy": 172, "off_plays": 413, "off_yards": 1842, "def_plays": 399, "def_yards": 2716, "early_plays": 276, "early_yards": 1264, "explosive_plays": 27, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858439", "401858468", "401866656", "401867935", "401869127" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.278688524590164, "def_ppd": 2.8666666666666667, "off_ypp": 4.460048426150121, "def_ypp": 6.807017543859649, "early_down_ypp": 4.579710144927536 }, "home": { "off_drives": 35, "def_drives": 34, "off_points_proxy": 38, "def_points_proxy": 34, "off_plays": 276, "off_yards": 1221, "def_plays": 216, "def_yards": 978, "early_plays": 184, "early_yards": 820, "explosive_plays": 12, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867835", "401867991", "401868034" ], "games": 3, "off_ppd": 1.0857142857142856, "def_ppd": 1.0, "off_ypp": 4.423913043478261, "def_ypp": 4.527777777777778, "early_down_ypp": 4.456521739130435 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "219", "teamName": "Pennsylvania Quakers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867835", "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "name": "Pennsylvania Quakers at Dartmouth Big Green", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Memorial Field (Dartmouth)", "address": { "city": "Hanover", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03755", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "159", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "159", "displayName": "Dartmouth Big Green" } }, { "id": "219", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "219", "displayName": "Pennsylvania Quakers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.979, "officialScheduleSource": "https://pennathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "47", "teamName": "Howard Bison", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866656", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Howard Bison at Hampton Pirates", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Audi Field", "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "zipCode": "20024", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2261", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 13.0, "displayValue": "13" }, "team": { "id": "2261", "displayName": "Hampton Pirates" } }, { "id": "47", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "47", "displayName": "Howard Bison" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://hubison.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Philadelphia. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Philadelphia&state=PA&site=PHI&textField1=39.9525&textField2=-75.1657&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.979151+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 5 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867960", "matchup": "Howard Bison at Pennsylvania Quakers", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Philadelphia&state=PA&site=PHI&textField1=39.9525&textField2=-75.1657&e=0", "https://hubison.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://pennathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401867960", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867960", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3730", "fullName": "Franklin Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "47", "away_name": "Howard Bison", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "219", "home_name": "Pennsylvania Quakers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.833333333333332, "pa": 24.583333333333332, "margin": -4.75, "event_ids": [ "401767350", "401762462", "401767351", "401767182", "401767352", "401767353", "401767227", "401767354", "401767355", "401767396", "401767348", "401767397" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.2, "pa": 35.6, "margin": -18.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401867935", "401869127", "401858439", "401858468", "401866656" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 27.1, "pa": 26.5, "margin": 0.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401767772", "401767734", "401767698", "401767629", "401767683", "401788997", "401767555", "401767694", "401767707", "401788996" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 12.333333333333334, "pa": 13.666666666666666, "margin": -1.3333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401867991", "401868034", "401867835" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.166666666666664, 25.84166666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 15.433333333333334, 23.96666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.241666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0, 37.05833333333333 ], "home": [ 8.645833333333336, 48.645833333333336 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401867960", "matchup": "Howard Bison at Pennsylvania Quakers", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3730", "guid": "38946c4f-eed0-335b-a780-e25745658469", "fullName": "Franklin Field", "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "19104", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "219", "teamName": "Pennsylvania Quakers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867835", "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "name": "Pennsylvania Quakers at Dartmouth Big Green", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Memorial Field (Dartmouth)", "address": { "city": "Hanover", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03755", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "159", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "159", "displayName": "Dartmouth Big Green" } }, { "id": "219", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "219", "displayName": "Pennsylvania Quakers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.979, "officialScheduleSource": "https://pennathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "47", "teamName": "Howard Bison", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866656", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Howard Bison at Hampton Pirates", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Audi Field", "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "zipCode": "20024", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2261", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 13.0, "displayValue": "13" }, "team": { "id": "2261", "displayName": "Hampton Pirates" } }, { "id": "47", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "47", "displayName": "Howard Bison" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://hubison.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Philadelphia. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#219", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#47" ], "finding": "Pennsylvania Quakers: QB Miles Teodecki, RB Donte West/Tommy Lafayette/Sean Williams Jr, WR Mason Page/Isaac Lee/Simon Cofrancesco, TE Dante Barone/Jack Donnelly; Howard Bison: QB Ja'Shawn Scroggins/Isaiah Freeman, RB Eden James/Travis Kerney/Billy Roberson II, WR Semaj Pierre/Zaden Jackson/Se'Quan Osborne, TE Nathanial Clark" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "219", "teamName": "Pennsylvania Quakers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867835", "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "name": "Pennsylvania Quakers at Dartmouth Big Green", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Memorial Field (Dartmouth)", "address": { "city": "Hanover", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03755", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "159", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "159", "displayName": "Dartmouth Big Green" } }, { "id": "219", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "219", "displayName": "Pennsylvania Quakers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.979, "officialScheduleSource": "https://pennathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "47", "teamName": "Howard Bison", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866656", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Howard Bison at Hampton Pirates", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Audi Field", "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "zipCode": "20024", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2261", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 13.0, "displayValue": "13" }, "team": { "id": "2261", "displayName": "Hampton Pirates" } }, { "id": "47", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "47", "displayName": "Howard Bison" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://hubison.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Philadelphia. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Philadelphia&state=PA&site=PHI&textField1=39.9525&textField2=-75.1657&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.979151+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 5 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 20.924999999999997, 28.645833333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.166666666666664, 25.84166666666667 ], "currentMatchup": [ 15.433333333333334, 23.96666666666667 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -2.241666666666667, 3.741666666666667 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Howard Bison at Pennsylvania Quakers", "market": { "id": "401867960", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867960", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.394339+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.623379+00:00", "home_line": -14.0, "away_line": 14.0, "home_line_price": -107.0, "away_line_price": -117.0, "total": 42.5, "under_line": 42.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -630.0, "away_ml": 427.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -14.0, "average_total": 42.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 6.955050505050508, "combined": 46.31363636363636, "spread_buffer": -7.044949494949492, "total_difference": 3.8136363636363626 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.955050505050508, "combined": 46.31363636363636, "spread_buffer": -7.044949494949492, "total_difference": 3.8136363636363626 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 14.627765473182542, "combined": 46.794509692844066, "spread_buffer": 0.6277654731825422, "total_difference": 4.294509692844066 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 14.627765473182542, "combined": 46.794509692844066, "spread_buffer": 0.6277654731825422, "total_difference": 4.294509692844066 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 11.587500000000006, "combined": 45.704166666666666, "spread_buffer": -2.4124999999999943, "total_difference": 3.2041666666666657 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 11.587500000000006, "combined": 45.704166666666666, "spread_buffer": -2.4124999999999943, "total_difference": 3.2041666666666657 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401867960", "matchup": "Howard Bison at Pennsylvania Quakers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Howard Bison", "line": 14.0, "price": -117.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867960", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.394339+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.623379+00:00", "home_line": -14.0, "away_line": 14.0, "home_line_price": -107.0, "away_line_price": -117.0, "total": 42.5, "under_line": 42.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -630.0, "away_ml": 427.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 2.4124999999999943, "production_adjusted": 2.4124999999999943, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.4124999999999943, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.679292929292927, 26.634343434343435 ], "directional_buffer": 7.044949494949492, "scenario_minimum": 7.044949494949492 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 16.083372109830762, 30.711137583013304 ], "directional_buffer": -0.6277654731825422, "scenario_minimum": -0.6277654731825422 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 2.4124999999999943, "scenario_minimum": 2.4124999999999943 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 2.4124999999999943, "scenario_minimum": 2.4124999999999943 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 2.4124999999999943, "stressed_buffer": -0.5875000000000057 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 2.4124999999999943, "stressed_buffer": -0.5875000000000057 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 20.924999999999997, 28.645833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 6.2791666666666615, "stressed_buffer": 3.2791666666666615 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 20.924999999999997, 28.645833333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.5, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 3.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767339", "401767189", "401754619", "401767162", "401767337", "401767273", "401767155", "401767271", "401767335", "401767146", "401767187", "401767340" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.833333333333332, "pa": 41.0, "margin": -20.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401868040", "401867692", "401868033", "401868009", "401858244", "401868025" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.75, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 8.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767410", "401767265", "401761599", "401767411", "401767272", "401767412", "401767413", "401767345", "401767355", "401767409", "401767414", "401767403" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24.5, "pa": 32.333333333333336, "margin": -7.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401867977", "401867978", "401866633", "401867979", "401862781", "401866657" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.583333333333336, 29.708333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.583333333333336, 32.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6583333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.5, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 3.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767339", "401767189", "401754619", "401767162", "401767337", "401767273", "401767155", "401767271", "401767335", "401767146", "401767187", "401767340" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.833333333333332, "pa": 41.0, "margin": -20.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401868040", "401867692", "401868033", "401868009", "401858244", "401868025" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.75, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 8.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767410", "401767265", "401761599", "401767411", "401767272", "401767412", "401767413", "401767345", "401767355", "401767409", "401767414", "401767403" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24.5, "pa": 32.333333333333336, "margin": -7.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401867977", "401867978", "401866633", "401867979", "401862781", "401866657" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.583333333333336, 29.708333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.583333333333336, 32.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6583333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401867980", "matchup": "William & Mary Tribe at North Carolina Central Eagles", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "North Carolina Central Eagles: QB Nelson Layne/Cobey Thompkins, RB Zion Dobson/Plez Lawrence/Gino Addison, WR Chance Peterson/Mehki Wall/RJ Lancaster, TE Luke Bracey; William & Mary Tribe: QB Winston Watkins/Carter Carroll, RB Josh Miller/Andrew King/Brayden Smalls, WR Khylil Johnson/Kai Austin/Luke Vanantwerp, TE Sean McElwain/Jackson Blee", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.925000000000004, 34.3875 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.583333333333336, 29.708333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.583333333333336, 32.75 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.6583333333333332, 3.158333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 77, "def_drives": 76, "off_points_proxy": 131, "def_points_proxy": 242, "off_plays": 497, "off_yards": 2844, "def_plays": 506, "def_yards": 3545, "early_plays": 341, "early_yards": 1708, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858244", "401867692", "401868009", "401868025", "401868033", "401868040" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.7012987012987013, "def_ppd": 3.1842105263157894, "off_ypp": 5.722334004024145, "def_ypp": 7.0059288537549405, "early_down_ypp": 5.008797653958944 }, "home": { "off_drives": 80, "def_drives": 74, "off_points_proxy": 149, "def_points_proxy": 173, "off_plays": 479, "off_yards": 2741, "def_plays": 489, "def_yards": 3275, "early_plays": 346, "early_yards": 1839, "explosive_plays": 49, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862781", "401866633", "401866657", "401867977", "401867978", "401867979" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.8625, "def_ppd": 2.3378378378378377, "off_ypp": 5.722338204592902, "def_ypp": 6.697341513292433, "early_down_ypp": 5.315028901734104 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2428", "teamName": "North Carolina Central Eagles", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866657", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Campbell Fighting Camels at North Carolina Central Eagles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium", "address": { "city": "Durham", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "27707", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2428", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2428", "displayName": "North Carolina Central Eagles" } }, { "id": "2097", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "2097", "displayName": "Campbell Fighting Camels" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.792, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nccueaglepride.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2729", "teamName": "William & Mary Tribe", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868025", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Holy Cross Crusaders at William & Mary Tribe", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Walter J. Zable Stadium", "address": { "city": "Williamsburg", "state": "VA", "zipCode": "23186", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2729", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2729", "displayName": "William & Mary Tribe" } }, { "id": "107", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "107", "displayName": "Holy Cross Crusaders" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tribeathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Durham. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Durham&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.9804&textField2=-78.915&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.329034+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 61. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Saturday Rain likely, mainly between 1pm and 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 68. East wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Low around 64. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867980", "matchup": "William & Mary Tribe at North Carolina Central Eagles", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Durham&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.9804&textField2=-78.915&e=0", "https://nccueaglepride.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://tribeathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401867980", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867980", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3862", "fullName": "O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Durham", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2729", "away_name": "William & Mary Tribe", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2428", "home_name": "North Carolina Central Eagles", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.5, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 3.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767339", "401767189", "401754619", "401767162", "401767337", "401767273", "401767155", "401767271", "401767335", "401767146", "401767187", "401767340" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.833333333333332, "pa": 41.0, "margin": -20.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401868040", "401867692", "401868033", "401868009", "401858244", "401868025" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.75, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 8.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767410", "401767265", "401761599", "401767411", "401767272", "401767412", "401767413", "401767345", "401767355", "401767409", "401767414", "401767403" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24.5, "pa": 32.333333333333336, "margin": -7.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401867977", "401867978", "401866633", "401867979", "401862781", "401866657" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.583333333333336, 29.708333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.583333333333336, 32.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6583333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 5.425000000000004, 45.425000000000004 ], "home": [ 14.387500000000003, 54.3875 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401867980", "matchup": "William & Mary Tribe at North Carolina Central Eagles", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3862", "guid": "f1b6bc5b-962e-3a83-a4bf-363b1587185b", "fullName": "O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium", "address": { "city": "Durham", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "27707", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2428", "teamName": "North Carolina Central Eagles", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866657", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Campbell Fighting Camels at North Carolina Central Eagles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium", "address": { "city": "Durham", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "27707", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2428", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2428", "displayName": "North Carolina Central Eagles" } }, { "id": "2097", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "2097", "displayName": "Campbell Fighting Camels" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.792, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nccueaglepride.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2729", "teamName": "William & Mary Tribe", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868025", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Holy Cross Crusaders at William & Mary Tribe", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Walter J. Zable Stadium", "address": { "city": "Williamsburg", "state": "VA", "zipCode": "23186", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2729", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2729", "displayName": "William & Mary Tribe" } }, { "id": "107", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "107", "displayName": "Holy Cross Crusaders" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tribeathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Durham. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2428", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2729" ], "finding": "North Carolina Central Eagles: QB Nelson Layne/Cobey Thompkins, RB Zion Dobson/Plez Lawrence/Gino Addison, WR Chance Peterson/Mehki Wall/RJ Lancaster, TE Luke Bracey; William & Mary Tribe: QB Winston Watkins/Carter Carroll, RB Josh Miller/Andrew King/Brayden Smalls, WR Khylil Johnson/Kai Austin/Luke Vanantwerp, TE Sean McElwain/Jackson Blee" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2428", "teamName": "North Carolina Central Eagles", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866657", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Campbell Fighting Camels at North Carolina Central Eagles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium", "address": { "city": "Durham", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "27707", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2428", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2428", "displayName": "North Carolina Central Eagles" } }, { "id": "2097", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "2097", "displayName": "Campbell Fighting Camels" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.792, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nccueaglepride.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2729", "teamName": "William & Mary Tribe", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868025", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Holy Cross Crusaders at William & Mary Tribe", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Walter J. Zable Stadium", "address": { "city": "Williamsburg", "state": "VA", "zipCode": "23186", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2729", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2729", "displayName": "William & Mary Tribe" } }, { "id": "107", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "107", "displayName": "Holy Cross Crusaders" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tribeathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Durham. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Durham&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.9804&textField2=-78.915&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.329034+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 61. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Saturday Rain likely, mainly between 1pm and 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 68. East wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Low around 64. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.925000000000004, 34.3875 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 8.962499999999999, "combined": 59.81250000000001, "spread_buffer": 5.962499999999999, "total_difference": 2.312500000000007 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 8.962499999999999, "combined": 59.81250000000001, "spread_buffer": 5.962499999999999, "total_difference": 2.312500000000007 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401867980", "matchup": "William & Mary Tribe at North Carolina Central Eagles", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "North Carolina Central Eagles", "line": -3.0, "price": -113.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867980", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.394339+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.616363+00:00", "home_line": -3.0, "away_line": 3.0, "home_line_price": -113.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -162.0, "away_ml": 130.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 5.962499999999999, "production_adjusted": 5.962499999999999, "minimum_all_scenarios": 5.462499999999999, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.333333333333332, 31.979166666666668 ], "directional_buffer": 2.6458333333333357, "scenario_minimum": 2.6458333333333357 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.50189396866811, 35.97662650171959 ], "directional_buffer": 9.474732533051483, "scenario_minimum": 9.474732533051483 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 5.962499999999999, "scenario_minimum": 5.962499999999999 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 5.962499999999999, "scenario_minimum": 5.962499999999999 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.925000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 5.462499999999999, "stressed_buffer": 2.4624999999999986 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 5.962499999999999, "stressed_buffer": 2.9624999999999986 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.925000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 5.462499999999999, "stressed_buffer": 2.4624999999999986 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.925000000000004, 34.3875 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.583333333333336, 29.708333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.583333333333336, 32.75 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.6583333333333332, 3.158333333333333 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Durham&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.9804&textField2=-78.915&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Durham&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.9804&textField2=-78.915&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Rain likely, mainly between 1pm and 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 68. East wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 29, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401867980", "matchup": "William & Mary Tribe at North Carolina Central Eagles", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 57.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867980", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.394339+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.616363+00:00", "home_line": -3.0, "away_line": 3.0, "home_line_price": -113.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -162.0, "away_ml": 130.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 2.312500000000007, "production_adjusted": 2.312500000000007, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.312500000000007, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.333333333333332, 31.979166666666668 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8125, "scenario_minimum": 0.8125 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.50189396866811, 35.97662650171959 ], "directional_buffer": 1.978520470387707, "scenario_minimum": 1.978520470387707 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 2.312500000000007, "scenario_minimum": 2.312500000000007 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 2.312500000000007, "scenario_minimum": 2.312500000000007 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 2.312500000000007, "stressed_buffer": -0.6874999999999929 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 2.312500000000007, "stressed_buffer": -0.6874999999999929 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.925000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 2.812500000000007, "stressed_buffer": -0.1874999999999929 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.925000000000004, 34.3875 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.583333333333336, 29.708333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.583333333333336, 32.75 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.6583333333333332, 3.158333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Durham&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.9804&textField2=-78.915&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Durham&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.9804&textField2=-78.915&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Rain likely, mainly between 1pm and 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 68. East wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 29, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 8.962499999999999, "combined": 59.81250000000001, "spread_buffer": 5.962499999999999, "total_difference": 2.312500000000007 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 8.962499999999999, "combined": 59.81250000000001, "spread_buffer": 5.962499999999999, "total_difference": 2.312500000000007 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401867980", "matchup": "William & Mary Tribe at North Carolina Central Eagles", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "North Carolina Central Eagles", "line": -3.0, "price": -113.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867980", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.394339+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.616363+00:00", "home_line": -3.0, "away_line": 3.0, "home_line_price": -113.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -162.0, "away_ml": 130.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 5.962499999999999, "production_adjusted": 5.962499999999999, "minimum_all_scenarios": 5.462499999999999, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.333333333333332, 31.979166666666668 ], "directional_buffer": 2.6458333333333357, "scenario_minimum": 2.6458333333333357 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.50189396866811, 35.97662650171959 ], "directional_buffer": 9.474732533051483, "scenario_minimum": 9.474732533051483 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 5.962499999999999, "scenario_minimum": 5.962499999999999 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 5.962499999999999, "scenario_minimum": 5.962499999999999 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.925000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 5.462499999999999, "stressed_buffer": 2.4624999999999986 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 5.962499999999999, "stressed_buffer": 2.9624999999999986 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.925000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 5.462499999999999, "stressed_buffer": 2.4624999999999986 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.925000000000004, 34.3875 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.583333333333336, 29.708333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.583333333333336, 32.75 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.6583333333333332, 3.158333333333333 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Durham&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.9804&textField2=-78.915&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Durham&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.9804&textField2=-78.915&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Rain likely, mainly between 1pm and 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 68. East wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 29, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401867980", "matchup": "William & Mary Tribe at North Carolina Central Eagles", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 57.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867980", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.394339+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.616363+00:00", "home_line": -3.0, "away_line": 3.0, "home_line_price": -113.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -162.0, "away_ml": 130.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 2.312500000000007, "production_adjusted": 2.312500000000007, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.312500000000007, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.333333333333332, 31.979166666666668 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8125, "scenario_minimum": 0.8125 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.50189396866811, 35.97662650171959 ], "directional_buffer": 1.978520470387707, "scenario_minimum": 1.978520470387707 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 2.312500000000007, "scenario_minimum": 2.312500000000007 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 2.312500000000007, "scenario_minimum": 2.312500000000007 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 2.312500000000007, "stressed_buffer": -0.6874999999999929 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 2.312500000000007, "stressed_buffer": -0.6874999999999929 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.925000000000004, 34.3875 ], "directional_buffer": 2.812500000000007, "stressed_buffer": -0.1874999999999929 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.925000000000004, 34.3875 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.583333333333336, 29.708333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.583333333333336, 32.75 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.6583333333333332, 3.158333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Durham&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.9804&textField2=-78.915&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Durham&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.9804&textField2=-78.915&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Rain likely, mainly between 1pm and 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 68. East wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 29, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401868212", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868212", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3664", "fullName": "Bud and Jackie Sellick Bowl", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Indianapolis", "state": "IN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "301", "away_name": "San Diego Toreros", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2086", "home_name": "Butler Bulldogs", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.36363636363636, 31.340909090909086 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.36363636363636, 31.340909090909086 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.36363636363636, 31.340909090909086 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.416666666666668, 24.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 30.4, 41.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 22.833333333333332, 25.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 36.6, 24.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.765208983464273, 34.1494590287473 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.765208983464273, 34.1494590287473 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.765208983464273, 34.1494590287473 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 23.0, 34.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 34.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.416666666666668, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": 4.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767070", "401767292", "401767106", "401767644", "401767645", "401767628", "401767622", "401767607", "401767618", "401767646", "401767600", "401767647" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 41.4, "margin": -11.0, "event_ids": [ "401868163", "401868102", "401868075", "401868281", "401868220" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 25.333333333333332, "margin": -2.5, "event_ids": [ "401767536", "401769891", "401769892", "401767160", "401767594", "401767595", "401767596", "401767597", "401767598", "401767599", "401767600", "401767601" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.6, "pa": 24.4, "margin": 12.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401868209", "401868119", "401868210", "401867686", "401868211" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.875, 23.583333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.4, 39.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6616666666666668, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.416666666666668, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": 4.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767070", "401767292", "401767106", "401767644", "401767645", "401767628", "401767622", "401767607", "401767618", "401767646", "401767600", "401767647" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 41.4, "margin": -11.0, "event_ids": [ "401868163", "401868102", "401868075", "401868281", "401868220" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 25.333333333333332, "margin": -2.5, "event_ids": [ "401767536", "401769891", "401769892", "401767160", "401767594", "401767595", "401767596", "401767597", "401767598", "401767599", "401767600", "401767601" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.6, "pa": 24.4, "margin": 12.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401868209", "401868119", "401868210", "401867686", "401868211" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.875, 23.583333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.4, 39.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6616666666666668, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868212", "matchup": "San Diego Toreros at Butler Bulldogs", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Butler Bulldogs: QB Gabe Passini, RB Desmin Jackson/Michael Dellumo/Sam Manna, WR Nick Munson/Michael Nix/Blake Matthews, TE Drew Sullivan/Landon Hochstein; San Diego Toreros: QB Dom Nankil/CJ Ceron, RB Adam Criter/Omar Mbakwe/Zamar Reese, WR Cole Monach/Christopher Hall/Yosei Takahashi, TE Carter Pruitt", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.738333333333333, 34.45333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 26.875, 23.583333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.4, 39.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.6616666666666668, 3.161666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 67, "def_drives": 64, "off_points_proxy": 145, "def_points_proxy": 192, "off_plays": 478, "off_yards": 2847, "def_plays": 389, "def_yards": 2940, "early_plays": 342, "early_yards": 2132, "explosive_plays": 43, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868075", "401868102", "401868163", "401868220", "401868281" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.1641791044776117, "def_ppd": 3.0, "off_ypp": 5.956066945606694, "def_ypp": 7.557840616966581, "early_down_ypp": 6.233918128654971 }, "home": { "off_drives": 49, "def_drives": 47, "off_points_proxy": 162, "def_points_proxy": 96, "off_plays": 341, "off_yards": 2179, "def_plays": 294, "def_yards": 1781, "early_plays": 241, "early_yards": 1490, "explosive_plays": 30, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867686", "401868119", "401868209", "401868210", "401868211" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.306122448979592, "def_ppd": 2.0425531914893615, "off_ypp": 6.390029325513196, "def_ypp": 6.057823129251701, "early_down_ypp": 6.182572614107884 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2086", "teamName": "Butler Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868211", "date": "2026-09-26T18:00Z", "name": "Butler Bulldogs at Valparaiso Beacons", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Brown Field", "address": { "city": "Valparaiso", "state": "IN", "zipCode": "46383", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2674", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2674", "displayName": "Valparaiso Beacons" } }, { "id": "2086", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "2086", "displayName": "Butler Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 13.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://butlersports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "301", "teamName": "San Diego Toreros", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868220", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Davidson Wildcats at San Diego Toreros", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Torero Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Diego", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "92111", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "301", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 63.0, "displayValue": "63" }, "team": { "id": "301", "displayName": "San Diego Toreros" } }, { "id": "2166", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2166", "displayName": "Davidson Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://usdtoreros.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Indianapolis. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Indianapolis&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=39.7764&textField2=-86.1462&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.497726+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Southeast wind 5 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Tonight Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. East wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868212", "matchup": "San Diego Toreros at Butler Bulldogs", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://butlersports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Indianapolis&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=39.7764&textField2=-86.1462&e=0", "https://usdtoreros.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868212", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868212", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3664", "fullName": "Bud and Jackie Sellick Bowl", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Indianapolis", "state": "IN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "301", "away_name": "San Diego Toreros", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2086", "home_name": "Butler Bulldogs", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.416666666666668, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": 4.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767070", "401767292", "401767106", "401767644", "401767645", "401767628", "401767622", "401767607", "401767618", "401767646", "401767600", "401767647" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 41.4, "margin": -11.0, "event_ids": [ "401868163", "401868102", "401868075", "401868281", "401868220" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 25.333333333333332, "margin": -2.5, "event_ids": [ "401767536", "401769891", "401769892", "401767160", "401767594", "401767595", "401767596", "401767597", "401767598", "401767599", "401767600", "401767601" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.6, "pa": 24.4, "margin": 12.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401868209", "401868119", "401868210", "401867686", "401868211" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.875, 23.583333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.4, 39.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6616666666666668, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 5.475833333333334, 45.475833333333334 ], "home": [ 14.453333333333333, 54.45333333333333 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868212", "matchup": "San Diego Toreros at Butler Bulldogs", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3664", "guid": "e3e2d3d5-7e52-374f-acc0-4ff1e6dce44e", "fullName": "Bud and Jackie Sellick Bowl", "address": { "city": "Indianapolis", "state": "IN", "zipCode": "46208", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2086", "teamName": "Butler Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868211", "date": "2026-09-26T18:00Z", "name": "Butler Bulldogs at Valparaiso Beacons", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Brown Field", "address": { "city": "Valparaiso", "state": "IN", "zipCode": "46383", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2674", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2674", "displayName": "Valparaiso Beacons" } }, { "id": "2086", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "2086", "displayName": "Butler Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 13.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://butlersports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "301", "teamName": "San Diego Toreros", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868220", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Davidson Wildcats at San Diego Toreros", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Torero Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Diego", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "92111", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "301", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 63.0, "displayValue": "63" }, "team": { "id": "301", "displayName": "San Diego Toreros" } }, { "id": "2166", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2166", "displayName": 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Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 26.875, 23.583333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.4, 39.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.6616666666666668, 3.161666666666667 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Indianapolis&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=39.7764&textField2=-86.1462&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Southeast wind 5 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 18, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": "Bonus Pick", "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE", "eligibility_rank": 2 }, "total": { "event_id": "401868212", "matchup": "San Diego Toreros at Butler Bulldogs", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 57.5, "price": -118.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868212", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.453160+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.695272+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -118.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 129.0, "away_ml": -160.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 2.429166666666667, "production_adjusted": 2.429166666666667, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.429166666666667, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.36363636363636, 31.340909090909086 ], "directional_buffer": 0.20454545454544615, "scenario_minimum": 0.20454545454544615 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.765208983464273, 34.1494590287473 ], "directional_buffer": -0.5853319877884218, "scenario_minimum": -0.5853319877884218 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 2.429166666666667, "scenario_minimum": 2.429166666666667 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 2.429166666666667, "scenario_minimum": 2.429166666666667 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 2.429166666666667, "stressed_buffer": -0.5708333333333329 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 2.429166666666667, "stressed_buffer": -0.5708333333333329 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.738333333333337, 34.45333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 2.69166666666667, "stressed_buffer": -0.30833333333333 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.738333333333333, 34.45333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 26.875, 23.583333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.4, 39.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.6616666666666668, 3.161666666666667 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Indianapolis&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=39.7764&textField2=-86.1462&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Southeast wind 5 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 18, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401868300", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868300", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3809", "fullName": "Louis Crews Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Huntsville", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2065", "away_name": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2010", "home_name": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.08901515151515, 30.191287878787875 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.08901515151515, 30.191287878787875 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.08901515151515, 30.191287878787875 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 29.666666666666668, 32.666666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 29.6, 27.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 23.416666666666668, 33.416666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 34.166666666666664, 18.666666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 30.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.0, 30.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.296713775245237, 33.38541149000864 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.296713775245237, 33.38541149000864 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.296713775245237, 33.38541149000864 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 33.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 33.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.666666666666668, "pa": 32.666666666666664, "margin": -2.9999999999999964, "event_ids": [ "401766898", "401754641", "401767388", "401767389", "401767311", "401767362", "401767390", "401767384", "401767391", "401767392", "401767393", "401767394" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 29.6, "pa": 27.0, "margin": 2.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401856767", "401868285", "401868942", "401867985", "401868328" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.416666666666668, "pa": 33.416666666666664, "margin": -9.999999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752666", "401767309", "401767225", "401767310", "401767311", "401767312", "401767313", "401767314", "401767315", "401767356", "401767357", "401767358" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 34.166666666666664, "pa": 18.666666666666668, "margin": 15.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401867935", "401868297", "401868195", "401868298", "401868299", "401868295" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.541666666666664, 28.041666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.133333333333333, 30.583333333333332 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5899999999999995, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.0, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.666666666666668, "pa": 32.666666666666664, "margin": -2.9999999999999964, "event_ids": [ "401766898", "401754641", "401767388", "401767389", "401767311", "401767362", "401767390", "401767384", "401767391", "401767392", "401767393", "401767394" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 29.6, "pa": 27.0, "margin": 2.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401856767", "401868285", "401868942", "401867985", "401868328" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.416666666666668, "pa": 33.416666666666664, "margin": -9.999999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752666", "401767309", "401767225", "401767310", "401767311", "401767312", "401767313", "401767314", "401767315", "401767356", "401767357", "401767358" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 34.166666666666664, "pa": 18.666666666666668, "margin": 15.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401867935", "401868297", "401868195", "401868298", "401868299", "401868295" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.541666666666664, 28.041666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.133333333333333, 30.583333333333332 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5899999999999995, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.0, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868300", "matchup": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Alabama A&M Bulldogs", "risks": [ { "type": "severe_playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Official NWS city forecast shows heavy rain/thunderstorms and40\u201345mph gusts. Effect unestimated; ordinary3point adverse case does not establish robust bounds. Need game-window conditions recheck before promotion.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntsville&state=AL&site=HUN&textField1=34.707&textField2=-86.6277&e=1" } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs: QB Cornelious Brown IV/Mac Armstrong, RB Byron Perrilliat/Maurice Edwards IV/Kolton Nero, WR Imari Conley/Jaylan Bean/Devin Herring, TE Donovan Price/Jaxson Davis; Bethune-Cookman Wildcats: QB Tyler Jefferson/Joel Morris, RB Rashon Brown/Isaiah Daniel/Deanwar Johnson, WR Josh Evans/Willie Anderson/Rickie Shaw II, TE Micheal Walker", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.951666666666664, 31.4025 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.541666666666664, 28.041666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.133333333333333, 30.583333333333332 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5899999999999995, 2.0899999999999994 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 64, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 145, "def_points_proxy": 127, "off_plays": 419, "off_yards": 2513, "def_plays": 377, "def_yards": 2588, "early_plays": 303, "early_yards": 1864, "explosive_plays": 35, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856767", "401867985", "401868285", "401868328", "401868942" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.265625, "def_ppd": 2.081967213114754, "off_ypp": 5.997613365155131, "def_ypp": 6.864721485411141, "early_down_ypp": 6.151815181518152 }, "home": { "off_drives": 72, "def_drives": 76, "off_points_proxy": 198, "def_points_proxy": 109, "off_plays": 477, "off_yards": 3573, "def_plays": 539, "def_yards": 2740, "early_plays": 363, "early_yards": 2612, "explosive_plays": 48, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867935", "401868195", "401868295", "401868297", "401868298", "401868299" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.75, "def_ppd": 1.4342105263157894, "off_ypp": 7.490566037735849, "def_ypp": 5.083487940630798, "early_down_ypp": 7.195592286501378 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2010", "teamName": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868295", "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "name": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs at Jackson State Tigers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Ladd-Peebles Stadium", "address": { "city": "Mobile", "state": "AL", "zipCode": "36604", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2296", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2296", "displayName": "Jackson State Tigers" } }, { "id": "2010", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2010", "displayName": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://aamusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2065", "teamName": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868328", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Alabama State Hornets at Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Daytona Stadium", "address": { "city": "Daytona Beach", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32124", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2065", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "2065", "displayName": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2011", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2011", "displayName": "Alabama State Hornets" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://bcuathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Huntsville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntsville&state=AL&site=HUN&textField1=34.707&textField2=-86.6277&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.509906+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 61. East wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 72. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Saturday Night Showers likely, mainly before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868300", "matchup": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Alabama A&M Bulldogs", "risks": [ { "type": "severe_playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Official NWS city forecast shows heavy rain/thunderstorms and40\u201345mph gusts. Effect unestimated; ordinary3point adverse case does not establish robust bounds. Need game-window conditions recheck before promotion.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntsville&state=AL&site=HUN&textField1=34.707&textField2=-86.6277&e=1" } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://aamusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://bcuathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntsville&state=AL&site=HUN&textField1=34.707&textField2=-86.6277&e=1" ], "tu": { "id": "401868300", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868300", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3809", "fullName": "Louis Crews Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Huntsville", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2065", "away_name": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2010", "home_name": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.666666666666668, "pa": 32.666666666666664, "margin": -2.9999999999999964, "event_ids": [ "401766898", "401754641", "401767388", "401767389", "401767311", "401767362", "401767390", "401767384", "401767391", "401767392", "401767393", "401767394" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 29.6, "pa": 27.0, "margin": 2.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401856767", "401868285", "401868942", "401867985", "401868328" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.416666666666668, "pa": 33.416666666666664, "margin": -9.999999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752666", "401767309", "401767225", "401767310", "401767311", "401767312", "401767313", "401767314", "401767315", "401767356", "401767357", "401767358" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 34.166666666666664, "pa": 18.666666666666668, "margin": 15.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401867935", "401868297", "401868195", "401868298", "401868299", "401868295" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.541666666666664, 28.041666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.133333333333333, 30.583333333333332 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5899999999999995, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 7.247499999999999, 47.2475 ], "home": [ 11.4025, 51.4025 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868300", "matchup": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Alabama A&M Bulldogs", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3809", "guid": "ec52a826-61fd-3883-af21-0a2d8034bae4", "fullName": "Louis Crews Stadium", "address": { "city": "Huntsville", "state": "AL", "zipCode": "35810", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2010", "teamName": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868295", "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "name": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs at Jackson State Tigers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Ladd-Peebles Stadium", "address": { "city": "Mobile", "state": "AL", "zipCode": "36604", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2296", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2296", "displayName": "Jackson State Tigers" } }, { "id": "2010", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2010", "displayName": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://aamusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2065", "teamName": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868328", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Alabama State Hornets at Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Daytona Stadium", "address": { "city": "Daytona Beach", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32124", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2065", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "2065", "displayName": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2011", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2011", "displayName": "Alabama State Hornets" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://bcuathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Huntsville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2010", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2065" ], "finding": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs: QB Cornelious Brown IV/Mac Armstrong, RB Byron Perrilliat/Maurice Edwards IV/Kolton Nero, WR Imari Conley/Jaylan Bean/Devin Herring, TE Donovan Price/Jaxson Davis; Bethune-Cookman Wildcats: QB Tyler Jefferson/Joel Morris, RB Rashon Brown/Isaiah Daniel/Deanwar Johnson, WR Josh Evans/Willie Anderson/Rickie Shaw II, TE Micheal Walker" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2010", "teamName": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868295", "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "name": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs at Jackson State Tigers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Ladd-Peebles Stadium", "address": { "city": "Mobile", "state": "AL", "zipCode": "36604", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2296", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2296", "displayName": "Jackson State Tigers" } }, { "id": "2010", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2010", "displayName": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://aamusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2065", "teamName": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868328", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Alabama State Hornets at Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Daytona Stadium", "address": { "city": "Daytona Beach", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32124", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2065", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "2065", "displayName": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2011", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2011", "displayName": "Alabama State Hornets" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://bcuathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Huntsville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntsville&state=AL&site=HUN&textField1=34.707&textField2=-86.6277&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.509906+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 61. East wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 72. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Saturday Night Showers likely, mainly before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.951666666666664, 31.4025 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.541666666666664, 28.041666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.133333333333333, 30.583333333333332 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5899999999999995, 2.0899999999999994 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Alabama A&M Bulldogs", "market": { "id": "401868300", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868300", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.593347+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.829453+00:00", "home_line": -3.0, "away_line": 3.0, "home_line_price": -120.0, "away_line_price": -103.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -168.0, "away_ml": 135.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -3.0, "average_total": 48.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 3.1022727272727266, "combined": 57.280303030303024, "spread_buffer": 0.10227272727272663, "total_difference": 8.780303030303024 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 3.1022727272727266, "combined": 57.280303030303024, "spread_buffer": 0.10227272727272663, "total_difference": 8.780303030303024 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 9.088697714763406, "combined": 57.68212526525388, "spread_buffer": 6.088697714763406, "total_difference": 9.18212526525388 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 9.088697714763406, "combined": 57.68212526525388, "spread_buffer": 6.088697714763406, "total_difference": 9.18212526525388 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 4.155000000000001, "combined": 58.65, "spread_buffer": 1.1550000000000011, "total_difference": 10.149999999999999 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 4.155000000000001, "combined": 58.65, "spread_buffer": 1.1550000000000011, "total_difference": 10.149999999999999 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868300", "matchup": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Alabama A&M Bulldogs", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs", "line": -3.0, "price": -120.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868300", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.593347+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.829453+00:00", "home_line": -3.0, "away_line": 3.0, "home_line_price": -120.0, "away_line_price": -103.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -168.0, "away_ml": 135.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 1.1550000000000011, "production_adjusted": 1.1550000000000011, "minimum_all_scenarios": -2.5491666666666646, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.08901515151515, 30.191287878787875 ], "directional_buffer": 0.10227272727272663, "scenario_minimum": 0.10227272727272663 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.296713775245237, 33.38541149000864 ], "directional_buffer": 6.088697714763406, "scenario_minimum": 6.088697714763406 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "directional_buffer": 1.1550000000000011, "scenario_minimum": 1.1550000000000011 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "directional_buffer": 1.1550000000000011, "scenario_minimum": 1.1550000000000011 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.951666666666664, 31.4025 ], "directional_buffer": -2.5491666666666646, "stressed_buffer": -5.549166666666665 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "directional_buffer": 1.1550000000000011, "stressed_buffer": -1.8449999999999989 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.951666666666664, 31.4025 ], "directional_buffer": -2.5491666666666646, "stressed_buffer": -5.549166666666665 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.951666666666664, 31.4025 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.541666666666664, 28.041666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.133333333333333, 30.583333333333332 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5899999999999995, 2.0899999999999994 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntsville&state=AL&site=HUN&textField1=34.707&textField2=-86.6277&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntsville&state=AL&site=HUN&textField1=34.707&textField2=-86.6277&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-05:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 72. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 45, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868300", "matchup": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Alabama A&M Bulldogs", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 48.5, "price": -113.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868300", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.593347+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.829453+00:00", "home_line": -3.0, "away_line": 3.0, "home_line_price": -120.0, "away_line_price": -103.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -168.0, "away_ml": 135.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 10.149999999999999, "production_adjusted": 10.149999999999999, "minimum_all_scenarios": 10.149999999999999, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.08901515151515, 30.191287878787875 ], "directional_buffer": 8.780303030303024, "scenario_minimum": 8.780303030303024 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.296713775245237, 33.38541149000864 ], "directional_buffer": 9.18212526525388, "scenario_minimum": 9.18212526525388 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "directional_buffer": 10.149999999999999, "scenario_minimum": 10.149999999999999 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "directional_buffer": 10.149999999999999, "scenario_minimum": 10.149999999999999 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "directional_buffer": 10.149999999999999, "stressed_buffer": 7.149999999999999 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "directional_buffer": 10.149999999999999, "stressed_buffer": 7.149999999999999 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.951666666666664, 31.4025 ], "directional_buffer": 13.854166666666664, "stressed_buffer": 10.854166666666664 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.951666666666664, 31.4025 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.541666666666664, 28.041666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.133333333333333, 30.583333333333332 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5899999999999995, 2.0899999999999994 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntsville&state=AL&site=HUN&textField1=34.707&textField2=-86.6277&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntsville&state=AL&site=HUN&textField1=34.707&textField2=-86.6277&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-05:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 72. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 45, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.583333333333334, "pa": 37.916666666666664, "margin": -23.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401767298", "401767579", "401756891", "401767580", "401767566", "401767575", "401767581", "401767533", "401767582", "401767562", "401767255", "401752781" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.2, "pa": 25.8, "margin": -4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868149", "401867889", "401868386", "401868387", "401862793" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.25, "pa": 33.0, "margin": -4.75, "event_ids": [ "401762433", "401767231", "401767529", "401767306", "401767530", "401767531", "401767532", "401767533", "401767534", "401767535", "401767556", "401767557" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.166666666666668, "pa": 14.166666666666666, "margin": 6.000000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401868240", "401868336", "401868141", "401868337", "401868338", "401868339" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.791666666666668, 33.08333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.683333333333334, 22.983333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.918333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 18.0, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.0, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.583333333333334, "pa": 37.916666666666664, "margin": -23.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401767298", "401767579", "401756891", "401767580", "401767566", "401767575", "401767581", "401767533", "401767582", "401767562", "401767255", "401752781" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.2, "pa": 25.8, "margin": -4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868149", "401867889", "401868386", "401868387", "401862793" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.25, "pa": 33.0, "margin": -4.75, "event_ids": [ "401762433", "401767231", "401767529", "401767306", "401767530", "401767531", "401767532", "401767533", "401767534", "401767535", "401767556", "401767557" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.166666666666668, "pa": 14.166666666666666, "margin": 6.000000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401868240", "401868336", "401868141", "401868337", "401868338", "401868339" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.791666666666668, 33.08333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.683333333333334, 22.983333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.918333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 18.0, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.0, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868340", "matchup": "Samford Bulldogs at Chattanooga Mocs", "risks": [ { "type": "severe_playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Official NWS city forecast shows heavy rain/thunderstorms and40\u201345mph gusts. Effect unestimated; ordinary3point adverse case does not establish robust bounds. Need game-window conditions recheck before promotion.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Chattanooga&state=TN&site=MRX&textField1=35.0662&textField2=-85.257&e=0" } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Chattanooga Mocs: QB Battle Alberson, RB Kevin Lalin/Harrison Bey-Buie, WR Ashton Schumann/Erik Bussmann/Davon Kiser, TE Landon Strickland; Samford Bulldogs: QB Gabarri Johnson/Coulter Cleland, RB Domonique Thomas/Emerson Russell/Ken Cherry, WR Marquise Henderson/Cayden Aukerman/Kevonte Corbin, TE Cannon Pigg/Maddox McKim", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 20.873333333333335, 32.45166666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.791666666666668, 33.08333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 17.683333333333334, 22.983333333333334 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -2.918333333333333, 4.418333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 57, "off_points_proxy": 102, "def_points_proxy": 113, "off_plays": 423, "off_yards": 2264, "def_plays": 421, "def_yards": 2551, "early_plays": 300, "early_yards": 1458, "explosive_plays": 28, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862793", "401867889", "401868149", "401868386", "401868387" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.7, "def_ppd": 1.9824561403508771, "off_ypp": 5.3522458628841605, "def_ypp": 6.059382422802851, "early_down_ypp": 4.86 }, "home": { "off_drives": 68, "def_drives": 69, "off_points_proxy": 108, "def_points_proxy": 86, "off_plays": 438, "off_yards": 2264, "def_plays": 469, "def_yards": 2222, "early_plays": 301, "early_yards": 1575, "explosive_plays": 37, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868141", "401868240", "401868336", "401868337", "401868338", "401868339" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.588235294117647, "def_ppd": 1.2463768115942029, "off_ypp": 5.168949771689498, "def_ypp": 4.73773987206823, "early_down_ypp": 5.232558139534884 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "236", "teamName": "Chattanooga Mocs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868339", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Chattanooga Mocs at East Tennessee State Buccaneers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "William B. Greene Jr. Stadium", "address": { "city": "Johnson City", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37604", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2193", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2193", "displayName": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers" } }, { "id": "236", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "236", "displayName": "Chattanooga Mocs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gomocs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2535", "teamName": "Samford Bulldogs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401862793", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Samford Bulldogs at UAB Blazers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Protective Stadium", "address": { "city": "Birmingham", "state": "AL", "zipCode": "35203", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "5", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "5", "displayName": "UAB Blazers" } }, { "id": "2535", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2535", "displayName": "Samford Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://samfordsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Chattanooga. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Chattanooga&state=TN&site=MRX&textField1=35.0662&textField2=-85.257&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.498730+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 73. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 5am, then showers likely. Low around 62. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868340", "matchup": "Samford Bulldogs at Chattanooga Mocs", "risks": [ { "type": "severe_playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Official NWS city forecast shows heavy rain/thunderstorms and40\u201345mph gusts. Effect unestimated; ordinary3point adverse case does not establish robust bounds. Need game-window conditions recheck before promotion.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Chattanooga&state=TN&site=MRX&textField1=35.0662&textField2=-85.257&e=0" } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Chattanooga&state=TN&site=MRX&textField1=35.0662&textField2=-85.257&e=0", "https://gomocs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://samfordsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868340", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868340", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3720", "fullName": "Finley Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Chattanooga", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2535", "away_name": "Samford Bulldogs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "236", "home_name": "Chattanooga Mocs", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.583333333333334, "pa": 37.916666666666664, "margin": -23.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401767298", "401767579", "401756891", "401767580", "401767566", "401767575", "401767581", "401767533", "401767582", "401767562", "401767255", "401752781" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.2, "pa": 25.8, "margin": -4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868149", "401867889", "401868386", "401868387", "401862793" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.25, "pa": 33.0, "margin": -4.75, "event_ids": [ "401762433", "401767231", "401767529", "401767306", "401767530", "401767531", "401767532", "401767533", "401767534", "401767535", "401767556", "401767557" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.166666666666668, "pa": 14.166666666666666, "margin": 6.000000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401868240", "401868336", "401868141", "401868337", "401868338", "401868339" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.791666666666668, 33.08333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.683333333333334, 22.983333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.918333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0, 37.81916666666667 ], "home": [ 12.451666666666668, 52.45166666666667 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868340", "matchup": "Samford Bulldogs at Chattanooga Mocs", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3720", "guid": "fb3a2151-f44e-3085-a172-719bbb9ded2b", "fullName": "Finley Stadium", "address": { "city": "Chattanooga", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37408", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "236", "teamName": "Chattanooga Mocs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868339", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Chattanooga Mocs at East Tennessee State Buccaneers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "William B. Greene Jr. Stadium", "address": { "city": "Johnson City", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37604", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2193", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2193", "displayName": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers" } }, { "id": "236", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "236", "displayName": "Chattanooga Mocs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gomocs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2535", "teamName": "Samford Bulldogs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401862793", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Samford Bulldogs at UAB Blazers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Protective Stadium", "address": { "city": "Birmingham", "state": "AL", "zipCode": "35203", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "5", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "5", "displayName": "UAB Blazers" } }, { "id": "2535", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2535", "displayName": "Samford Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://samfordsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Chattanooga. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#236", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2535" ], "finding": "Chattanooga Mocs: QB Battle Alberson, RB Kevin Lalin/Harrison Bey-Buie, WR Ashton Schumann/Erik Bussmann/Davon Kiser, TE Landon Strickland; Samford Bulldogs: QB Gabarri Johnson/Coulter Cleland, RB Domonique Thomas/Emerson Russell/Ken Cherry, WR Marquise Henderson/Cayden Aukerman/Kevonte Corbin, TE Cannon Pigg/Maddox McKim" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "236", "teamName": "Chattanooga Mocs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868339", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Chattanooga Mocs at East Tennessee State Buccaneers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "William B. Greene Jr. Stadium", "address": { "city": "Johnson City", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37604", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2193", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2193", "displayName": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers" } }, { "id": "236", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "236", "displayName": "Chattanooga Mocs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gomocs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2535", "teamName": "Samford Bulldogs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401862793", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Samford Bulldogs at UAB Blazers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Protective Stadium", "address": { "city": "Birmingham", "state": "AL", "zipCode": "35203", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "5", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "5", "displayName": "UAB Blazers" } }, { "id": "2535", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2535", "displayName": "Samford Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://samfordsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Chattanooga. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Chattanooga&state=TN&site=MRX&textField1=35.0662&textField2=-85.257&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.498730+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 73. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 5am, then showers likely. Low around 62. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. 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Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.791666666666668, 33.08333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 17.683333333333334, 22.983333333333334 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -2.918333333333333, 4.418333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Chattanooga&state=TN&site=MRX&textField1=35.0662&textField2=-85.257&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Chattanooga&state=TN&site=MRX&textField1=35.0662&textField2=-85.257&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-05:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 73. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 40, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401869843", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401869843", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3792", "fullName": "Kidd Brewer Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Boone", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "295", "away_name": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2026", "home_name": "App State Mountaineers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "295", "side": "away", "player": "JJ Harrell", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ] }, { "teamId": "295", "side": "away", "player": "TJ Johnson", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ] }, { "teamId": "295", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Harrell third receiving yards (9/126) OUT; leading WR TJ Johnson 12/163 QUESTIONABLE. 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Henicle PROBABLE is not presumed replaced.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 32.666666666666664, 19.25 ], "current_rates": [ 19.8, 32.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 25.333333333333332, 29.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 34.75, 22.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "295", "side": "away", "player": "JJ Harrell", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "isolated_score": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ] }, { "teamId": "295", "side": "away", "player": "TJ Johnson", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "isolated_score": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ] }, { "teamId": "295", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Harrell third receiving yards (9/126) OUT; leading WR TJ Johnson 12/163 QUESTIONABLE. 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Henicle PROBABLE is not presumed replaced.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "isolated_score": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 23.5, 29.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.5, 29.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Separate receiver opportunities allow isolated -3 scenarios and joint -6 human sensitivity, with -3 overlap sensitivity. Henicle PROBABLE is not presumed replaced.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.666666666666664, "pa": 19.25, "margin": 13.416666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401761599", "401754536", "401757271", "401761619", "401761626", "401761631", "401761635", "401761641", "401761649", "401761657", "401761664" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.8, "pa": 32.4, "margin": -12.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401867973", "401858221", "401862710", "401869961", "401869956" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.333333333333332, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -4.5, "event_ids": [ "401761589", "401761596", "401761607", "401760379", "401752940", "401761624", "401761629", "401761635", "401761644", "401761652", "401761656", "401761661" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 34.75, "pa": 22.25, "margin": 12.5, "event_ids": [ "401866627", "401864571", "401864574", "401864572" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.25, 22.291666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.025, 33.575 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.7183333333333334, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 30.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 30.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: TJ Johnson" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401869843", "matchup": "Old Dominion Monarchs at App State Mountaineers", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "names": [ "TJ Johnson" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "names": [ "JJ Harrell" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Harrell third receiving yards (9/126) OUT; leading WR TJ Johnson 12/163 QUESTIONABLE. Separate receiver opportunities allow isolated -3 scenarios and joint -6 human sensitivity, with -3 overlap sensitivity. Henicle PROBABLE is not presumed replaced. | App State Mountaineers: current report contains 3 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.531666666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.25, 22.291666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.025, 33.575 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.7183333333333334, 2.2183333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 66, "def_drives": 65, "off_points_proxy": 84, "def_points_proxy": 149, "off_plays": 398, "off_yards": 1994, "def_plays": 444, "def_yards": 2454, "early_plays": 280, "early_yards": 1143, "explosive_plays": 30, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858221", "401862710", "401867973", "401869956", "401869961" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.2727272727272727, "def_ppd": 2.292307692307692, "off_ypp": 5.010050251256281, "def_ypp": 5.527027027027027, "early_down_ypp": 4.082142857142857 }, "home": { "off_drives": 49, "def_drives": 47, "off_points_proxy": 140, "def_points_proxy": 82, "off_plays": 372, "off_yards": 2279, "def_plays": 355, "def_yards": 1602, "early_plays": 265, "early_yards": 1637, "explosive_plays": 35, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401864571", "401864572", "401864574", "401866627" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.857142857142857, "def_ppd": 1.7446808510638299, "off_ypp": 6.126344086021505, "def_ypp": 4.512676056338028, "early_down_ypp": 6.1773584905660375 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Showers, mainly after 7am. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 57. East wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 52. East wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 3 and 4 inches possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Boone&state=NC&site=RNK&textField1=36.2095&textField2=-81.6699&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: TJ Johnson" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401869843", "matchup": "Old Dominion Monarchs at App State Mountaineers", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "names": [ "TJ Johnson" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "names": [ "JJ Harrell" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/4700811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/4870999/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/4871065/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/4885469/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/5092352/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"fullName": "Kidd Brewer Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Boone", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "295", "away_name": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2026", "home_name": "App State Mountaineers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.666666666666664, "pa": 19.25, "margin": 13.416666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401761599", "401754536", "401757271", "401761619", "401761626", "401761631", "401761635", "401761641", "401761649", "401761657", "401761664" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.8, "pa": 32.4, "margin": -12.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401867973", "401858221", "401862710", "401869961", "401869956" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.333333333333332, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -4.5, "event_ids": [ "401761589", "401761596", "401761607", "401760379", "401752940", "401761624", "401761629", "401761635", "401761644", "401761652", "401761656", "401761661" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 34.75, "pa": 22.25, "margin": 12.5, "event_ids": [ "401866627", "401864571", "401864574", "401864572" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.25, 22.291666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.025, 33.575 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.7183333333333334, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 7.419166666666666, 43.41916666666667 ], "home": [ 12.151666666666667, 48.15166666666667 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401869843", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401869843", "teamId": "295", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "side": "away", "opponent": "App State Mountaineers", "conferenceReportKey": "Old Dominion", "officialReport": { "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "posted": "Initial reports October 7-8; exact per-game timestamps retained below", "conference": "SB" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5193346", "name": "Quinn Henicle", "position": "QB", "workload": "38/68, 473 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/5193346/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295919", "name": "Ryan Huff", "position": "QB", "workload": "23/48, 279 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/5295919/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4922993", "name": "Devin Roche", "position": "RB", "workload": "57 CAR, 247 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/4922993/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5294446", "name": "Trey Hall", "position": "RB", "workload": "21 CAR, 57 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/5294446/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5394557", "name": "Ja'Varien Salter", "position": "RB", "workload": "9 CAR, 38 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/5394557/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5295923", "name": "TJ Johnson", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 163 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/5295923/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295921", "name": "Josh Rodriguez", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 150 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/5295921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5127805", "name": "JJ Harrell", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 126 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/5127805/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4832875", "name": "Leon Haughton Jr.", "position": "TE", "workload": "10 REC, 118 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/4832875/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5078274", "name": "Lonnie Johnson", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 8 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/5078274/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Quinn Henicle", "id": "5193346", "position": "QB", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "38/68, 473 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "55 CAR, 235 YDS, 4 TD" } ] }, { "name": "TJ Johnson", "id": "5295923", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "12 REC, 163 YDS, 2 TD" } ] }, { "name": "JJ Harrell", "id": "5127805", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "9 REC, 126 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Sidney Mbanasor", "id": "4912111", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Harrell third receiving yards (9/126) OUT; leading WR TJ Johnson 12/163 QUESTIONABLE. Separate receiver opportunities allow isolated -3 scenarios and joint -6 human sensitivity, with -3 overlap sensitivity. Henicle PROBABLE is not presumed replaced.", "confirmed": [ "JJ Harrell" ], "conditional": [ "TJ Johnson" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "JJ Harrell", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "Primary": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "TightenUpON": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ] } }, { "name": "TJ Johnson", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "Primary": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "TightenUpON": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -6, "overlapTreatment": "Harrell third receiving yards (9/126) OUT; leading WR TJ Johnson 12/163 QUESTIONABLE. Separate receiver opportunities allow isolated -3 scenarios and joint -6 human sensitivity, with -3 overlap sensitivity. Henicle PROBABLE is not presumed replaced.", "overlapSensitivity": -3, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5127805", "name": "JJ Harrell", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/193", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "344", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5127805/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2032", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5127805/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "295", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 9, "receivingYards": 126, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5127805/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "344", "2032" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5295923", "name": "TJ Johnson", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/195", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "295", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5295923/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "295", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 68, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5295923/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "295", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 12, "receivingYards": 163, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5295923/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "295" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5295921", "name": "Josh Rodriguez", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/201", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "295", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5295921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "295", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5295921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "295", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 12, "receivingYards": 150, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5295921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "295" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4832875", "name": "Leon Haughton Jr.", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/202", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "120", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 11, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4832875/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "120", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 43, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4832875/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "295", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 118, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4832875/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "120" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5153408", "name": "Kendall Harris", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/203", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2382", "status": "available", "games": 13, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 14, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 14, "receptions": 35, "receivingYards": 355, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5153408/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2382", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 2, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2, "receptions": 37, "receivingYards": 478, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5153408/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "295", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 70, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5153408/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2382" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "JJ Harrell", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "JJ Harrell", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "TJ Johnson", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Josh Rodriguez", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Josh Rodriguez", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: TJ Johnson" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/295/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401869843", "teamId": "2026", "team": "App State Mountaineers", "side": "home", "opponent": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "conferenceReportKey": "App State", "officialReport": { "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "posted": "Initial reports October 7-8; exact per-game timestamps retained below", "conference": "SB" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4870999", "name": "Malachi Singleton", "position": "QB", "workload": "96/132, 1206 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/4870999/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5146664", "name": "Henry Hasselbeck", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/5, 51 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/5146664/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5156152", "name": "Jaquari Lewis", "position": "RB", "workload": "47 CAR, 220 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/5156152/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4700811", "name": "Ja'Quez Cross", "position": "RB", "workload": "18 CAR, 105 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/4700811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4871065", "name": "Treyaun Webb", "position": "RB", "workload": "18 CAR, 56 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/4871065/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5300543", "name": "Sam Pickett III", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 326 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/5300543/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5224355", "name": "Nate Branch", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 203 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/5224355/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5092352", "name": "Chris Lofton", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 148 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/5092352/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4885469", "name": "Darrin Fugitt", "position": "TE", "workload": "16 REC, 192 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/4885469/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5209334", "name": "Jamel Howse", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 106 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/5209334/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Alexander Sanchez", "id": "5199951", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "6 REC, 79 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Dillon Galloway", "id": "5228759", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 49 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Daz James", "id": "5150276", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 4 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 9 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "App State Mountaineers: current report contains 3 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2026/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Sanchez six catches trails Pickett20/Branch20/Lofton12; Galloway one catch trails Fugitt16/Howse7; James one catch. No main-role trigger established.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.531666666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.25, 22.291666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.025, 33.575 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.7183333333333334, 2.2183333333333333 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Old Dominion Monarchs at App State Mountaineers", "market": { "id": "401869843", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869843", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.623379+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.898789+00:00", "home_line": -10.0, "away_line": 10.0, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -375.0, "away_ml": 295.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -10.0, "average_total": 47.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.854545454545459, "combined": 53.97272727272727, "spread_buffer": -8.145454545454541, "total_difference": 6.472727272727269 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 4.854545454545459, "combined": 50.97272727272727, "spread_buffer": -5.145454545454541, "total_difference": 3.472727272727269 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 5.541626792968778, "combined": 52.48251732751795, "spread_buffer": -4.458373207031222, "total_difference": 4.982517327517947 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 8.541626792968778, "combined": 49.48251732751795, "spread_buffer": -1.4583732070312223, "total_difference": 1.9825173275179466 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 4.732500000000002, "combined": 55.57083333333333, "spread_buffer": -5.267499999999998, "total_difference": 8.070833333333333 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 7.732500000000002, "combined": 52.57083333333333, "spread_buffer": -2.2674999999999983, "total_difference": 5.070833333333333 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401869843", "matchup": "Old Dominion Monarchs at App State Mountaineers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "line": 10.0, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869843", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.623379+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.898789+00:00", "home_line": -10.0, "away_line": 10.0, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -375.0, "away_ml": 295.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 5.267499999999998, "production_adjusted": 2.2674999999999983, "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.7325000000000017, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "directional_buffer": 5.145454545454541, "scenario_minimum": 2.145454545454541 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "directional_buffer": 1.4583732070312223, "scenario_minimum": -1.5416267929687777 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2674999999999983, "scenario_minimum": -0.7325000000000017 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2674999999999983, "scenario_minimum": -0.7325000000000017 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 19.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": -0.7325000000000017, "stressed_buffer": -3.7325000000000017 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 19.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": -0.7325000000000017, "stressed_buffer": -3.7325000000000017 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2674999999999983, "stressed_buffer": -0.7325000000000017 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 5.267499999999998, "stressed_buffer": 2.2674999999999983 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 24.53166666666667, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 4.380000000000003, "stressed_buffer": 1.3800000000000026 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 27.53166666666667, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 7.380000000000003, "stressed_buffer": 4.380000000000003 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.53166666666667, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 10.380000000000003, "stressed_buffer": 7.380000000000003 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.531666666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.25, 22.291666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.025, 33.575 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.7183333333333334, 2.2183333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "names": [ "TJ Johnson" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "names": [ "JJ Harrell" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Boone&state=NC&site=RNK&textField1=36.2095&textField2=-81.6699&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 3, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Boone&state=NC&site=RNK&textField1=36.2095&textField2=-81.6699&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers, mainly after 7am. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 57. East wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 43, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: TJ Johnson" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401869843", "matchup": "Old Dominion Monarchs at App State Mountaineers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 47.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869843", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.623379+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.898789+00:00", "home_line": -10.0, "away_line": 10.0, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -375.0, "away_ml": 295.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 8.070833333333333, "production_adjusted": 5.070833333333333, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.070833333333333, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "directional_buffer": 3.472727272727269, "scenario_minimum": 0.4727272727272691 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "directional_buffer": 1.9825173275179466, "scenario_minimum": -1.0174826724820534 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 5.070833333333333, "scenario_minimum": 2.070833333333333 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 5.070833333333333, "scenario_minimum": 2.070833333333333 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 19.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.070833333333333, "stressed_buffer": -0.9291666666666671 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 19.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.070833333333333, "stressed_buffer": -0.9291666666666671 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 5.070833333333333, "stressed_buffer": 2.070833333333333 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 8.070833333333333, "stressed_buffer": 5.070833333333333 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 24.53166666666667, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 7.183333333333337, "stressed_buffer": 4.183333333333337 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 27.53166666666667, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 10.183333333333337, "stressed_buffer": 7.183333333333337 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.53166666666667, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 13.183333333333337, "stressed_buffer": 10.183333333333337 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.531666666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.7235433213689766, 3.128996246021643 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7235433213689766, 3.128996246021643 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7235433213689766, 3.128996246021643 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 2.5, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 2.5, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 3.01219, "official_team_id": 6 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 3.01219, "official_team_id": 6 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Boston Bruins: Charlie McAvoy Suspension | Philadelphia Flyers: Rasmus Ristolainen Day-To-Day, Nikita Grebenkin Injured Reserve, Helge Grans Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892469", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.954528+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892469", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.954528+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2; home: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Boston Bruins; Primary: Boston Bruins; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Boston Bruins; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Boston Bruins. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 0.121955 to 0.593171. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.2434497875801753 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892469", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.2434497875801753e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 2.699024390243903, 3.2921951219512198 ], "Primary": [ 2.7235433213689766, 3.128996246021643 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 01:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020070, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T17:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/PHI/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Philadelphia Flyers", "previousEventId": "401891820", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Ottawa Senators", "previousVenue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to TD Garden; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Boston Bruins", "previousEventId": "401892457", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Utah Mammoth", "previousVenue": { "id": "1824", "fullName": "TD Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Boston", "state": "MA", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to TD Garden; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at TD Garden; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/PHI/20262027", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892469" ], "tu": { "id": "401892469", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892469", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1824", "fullName": "TD Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Boston", "state": "MA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "15", "away_name": "Philadelphia Flyers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "1", "home_name": "Boston Bruins", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 3.01219, "official_team_id": 6 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9695049999999998, 4.969505 ], "home": [ 1.0914599999999997, 5.09146 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins", "market": { "id": "401892469", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892469", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.623379+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.888590+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 195.0, "away_line_price": -238.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -120.0, "under_price": 100.0, "home_ml": -135.0, "away_ml": 114.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.5931707317073167, "combined": 5.991219512195123, "spread_buffer": -0.9068292682926833, "total_difference": 0.49121951219512283 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.5931707317073167, "combined": 5.991219512195123, "spread_buffer": -0.9068292682926833, "total_difference": 0.49121951219512283 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.40545292465266636, "combined": 5.85253956739062, "spread_buffer": -1.0945470753473336, "total_difference": 0.35253956739062 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.40545292465266636, "combined": 5.85253956739062, "spread_buffer": -1.0945470753473336, "total_difference": 0.35253956739062 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.12195499999999981, "combined": 6.0609649999999995, "spread_buffer": -1.3780450000000002, "total_difference": 0.5609649999999995 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.12195499999999981, "combined": 6.0609649999999995, "spread_buffer": -1.3780450000000002, "total_difference": 0.5609649999999995 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.12195499999999981, "combined": 6.0609649999999995, "spread_buffer": -1.3780450000000002, "total_difference": 0.5609649999999995 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.12195499999999981, "combined": 6.0609649999999995, "spread_buffer": -1.3780450000000002, "total_difference": 0.5609649999999995 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "761845", "sport": "MLS", "identity": { "id": "761845", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 13846, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLS", "venue": { "id": "10143", "fullName": "BMO Field", "indoor": null, "address": { "city": "Toronto", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "9720", "away_name": "CF Montr\u00e9al", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "7318", "home_name": "Toronto FC", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 7 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T17:00:00Z matches sporting slate. BMO Field" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Oct10 5amEDT official forecast: afternoon17C, sun/cloud; east20km/h gusting40. Clear tonight12C with same wind. No numeric weather coefficient." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/torvsmtl-10-10-2026/clubs", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/" ], "other_review": { "trades": [ { "player": "Dani Pereira", "position": "M", "date": "2026-07-02", "team": "CF Montr\u00e9al", "team_id": "9720", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "Austin FC", "counterparty_id": "20906", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "M - Dani Pereira (7/2/26 - trade from Austin FC)", "roster_identity": { "id": "316077", "name": "Dani Pereira", "roster_team": "CF Montr\u00e9al", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/9720/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/316077/stats?team=9720&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-316077-9720.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "9720", "stats": { "STRT": "4", "FC": "6", "FA": "7", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "3", "SOG": "2", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "S\u00e9bastian Breza", "Brandan Craig", "Jalen Neal", "Brayan Ceballos", "Victor Loturi", "Matthew Longstaff", "Alexis S\u00e1nchez", "Luca Petrasso", "Dawid Bugaj", "Prince Owusu", "Daniel R\u00edos" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761831", "date": "2026-09-26T23:30Z", "name": "FC Cincinnati at CF Montr\u00e9al" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761831", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "4", "post_trade_starts": "4", "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 100, "documented_new_team_starts": "4", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": "4", "post_trade_starts": "4", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 1.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Progression, passing and chance creation", "direction": "New role can displace reference XI opportunities", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. 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Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Progression, passing and chance creation", "direction": "New role can displace reference XI opportunities", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.362241+00:00" }, { "player": "Kosi Thompson", "position": "D", "date": "2026-03-26", "team": "Toronto FC", "team_id": "7318", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "Colorado Rapids", "counterparty_id": "184", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "D - Kosi Thompson (3/26/26 - trade to Colorado Rapids)", "roster_identity": { "id": "319389", "name": "Kosi Thompson", "roster_team": "Colorado Rapids", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/184/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/319389/stats?team=7318&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-319389-7318.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "7318", "stats": { "STRT": "2", "FC": "1", "FA": "2", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "7318", "stats": { "STRT": "23", "FC": "21", "FA": "21", "YC": "8", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "6", "SOG": "3", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "7318", "stats": { "STRT": "6", "FC": "18", "FA": "11", "YC": "5", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "6", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Luka Gavran", "Nickseon Gomis", "Zane Monlouis", "Matheus Pereira", "Jackson Gilman", "Niklas Dorsch", "Jonathan Osorio", "D\u00e1niel Sall\u00f3i", "Theo Corbeanu", "Josh Sargent", "Lewis Morgan" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761838", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "Toronto FC at Nashville SC" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761838", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "319389", "name": "Kosi Thompson", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "2", "post_trade_starts": "9", "post_last_match_role": "substitute/bench", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 198, "documented_new_team_starts": "9", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": "2", "post_trade_starts": "9", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 2.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Build-up width and set-piece contribution", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Space/duel coverage and line coordination", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.362241+00:00" } ], "references": { "away": { "teamId": "9720", "team": "CF Montr\u00e9al", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/9720/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761831", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:24.115840+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.306663+00:00", "event": { "id": "761831", "date": "2026-09-26T23:30Z", "name": "FC Cincinnati at CF Montr\u00e9al" }, "referenceXI": [ "S\u00e9bastian Breza", "Brandan Craig", "Jalen Neal", "Brayan Ceballos", "Victor Loturi", "Matthew Longstaff", "Alexis S\u00e1nchez", "Luca Petrasso", "Dawid Bugaj", "Prince Owusu", "Daniel R\u00edos" ], "formation": "3-4-1-2", "roster": [ { "id": "252607", "name": "S\u00e9bastian Breza", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "saves": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "304135", "name": "Brandan Craig", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "303469", "name": "Jalen Neal", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "322977", "name": "Brayan Ceballos", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "343641", "name": "Victor Loturi", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "279758", "name": "Matthew Longstaff", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "92055", "name": "Alexis S\u00e1nchez", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Attacking Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "271816", "name": "Luca Petrasso", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "364675", "name": "Dawid Bugaj", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "275798", "name": "Prince Owusu", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 3.0, "totalGoals": 2.0, "totalShots": 4.0 } }, { "id": "351302", "name": "Daniel R\u00edos", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 3.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 3.0 } }, { "id": "342164", "name": "Emil Gazdov", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "283228", "name": "Frankie Amaya", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "318238", "name": "Thomas Gillier", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "233047", "name": "Fabian Herbers", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "370126", "name": "Ivan Losenko", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." }, "home": { "teamId": "7318", "team": "Toronto FC", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/7318/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761838", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.897122+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:26.427240+00:00", "event": { "id": "761838", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "Toronto FC at Nashville SC" }, "referenceXI": [ "Luka Gavran", "Nickseon Gomis", "Zane Monlouis", "Matheus Pereira", "Jackson Gilman", "Niklas Dorsch", "Jonathan Osorio", "D\u00e1niel Sall\u00f3i", "Theo Corbeanu", "Josh Sargent", "Lewis Morgan" ], "formation": "4-4-2", "roster": [ { "id": "294040", "name": "Luka Gavran", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "saves": 9.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "337361", "name": "Nickseon Gomis", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "310293", "name": "Zane Monlouis", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "301819", "name": "Matheus Pereira", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "353137", "name": "Jackson Gilman", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "225567", "name": "Niklas Dorsch", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "184221", "name": "Jonathan Osorio", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "233050", "name": "D\u00e1niel Sall\u00f3i", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 3.0 } }, { "id": "290190", "name": "Theo Corbeanu", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 3.0 } }, { "id": "256613", "name": "Josh Sargent", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "181028", "name": "Lewis Morgan", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "174703", "name": "William Yarbrough", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "366744", "name": "Emilio Aristiz\u00e1bal", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "359272", "name": "Alonso Coello", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "237164", "name": "Raheem Edwards", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "298072", "name": "Kobe Franklin", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "301726", "name": "Alejandro Piedrahita", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "364702", "name": "Lazar Stefanovic", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "323130", "name": "Jules-Anthony Vilsaint", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "231098", "name": "Derrick Etienne Jr.", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "CF Montr\u00e9al at Toronto FC", "market": { "id": "761845", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761845", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.628399+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.964496+00:00", "home_line": -0.5, "away_line": 0.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -125.0, "total": 3.5, "under_line": 3.5, "over_price": 135.0, "under_price": -170.0, "home_ml": -105.0, "away_ml": 240.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "draw_ml": 270.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "moneyline_scope": "Regulation three-way including draw" } ], "average_home_line": -0.5, "average_total": 3.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "401866440", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401866440", "date": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3985", "fullName": "Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Amherst", "state": "MA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "193", "away_name": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "113", "home_name": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.076923076923077, 22.0 ], "current_rates": [ 26.8, 29.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 11.083333333333334, 38.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 31.8, 17.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 25.076923076923077, "pa": 22.0, "margin": 3.0769230769230766, "event_ids": [ "401762791", "401752818", "401760376", "401762827", "401762873", "401762833", "401762841", "401762874", "401762852", "401762860", "401762865", "401762875", "401777329" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 29.2, "margin": -2.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401866417", "401856797", "401861970", "401866477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 11.083333333333334, "pa": 38.583333333333336, "margin": -27.5, "event_ids": [ "401762456", "401762816", "401752830", "401752721", "401762832", "401762837", "401762840", "401762847", "401762851", "401762859", "401762863", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.8, "pa": 17.8, "margin": 14.0, "event_ids": [ "401858423", "401866420", "401866424", "401866429", "401866433" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.830128205128204, 16.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 22.3, 30.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.4176923076923078, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 25.076923076923077, "pa": 22.0, "margin": 3.0769230769230766, "event_ids": [ "401762791", "401752818", "401760376", "401762827", "401762873", "401762833", "401762841", "401762874", "401762852", "401762860", "401762865", "401762875", "401777329" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 29.2, "margin": -2.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401866417", "401856797", "401861970", "401866477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 11.083333333333334, "pa": 38.583333333333336, "margin": -27.5, "event_ids": [ "401762456", "401762816", "401752830", "401752721", "401762832", "401762837", "401762840", "401762847", "401762851", "401762859", "401762863", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.8, "pa": 17.8, "margin": 14.0, "event_ids": [ "401858423", "401866420", "401866424", "401866429", "401866433" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.830128205128204, 16.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 22.3, 30.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.4176923076923078, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401866440", "matchup": "Miami (OH) RedHawks at Massachusetts Minutemen", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Miami (OH) RedHawks: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Massachusetts Minutemen: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.482756410256407, 30.582307692307694 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.830128205128204, 16.541666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 22.3, 30.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.4176923076923078, 0.08230769230769219 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 52, "def_drives": 55, "off_points_proxy": 126, "def_points_proxy": 153, "off_plays": 378, "off_yards": 2502, "def_plays": 388, "def_yards": 2624, "early_plays": 274, "early_yards": 1659, "explosive_plays": 41, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856797", "401858207", "401861970", "401866417", "401866477" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.423076923076923, "def_ppd": 2.7818181818181817, "off_ypp": 6.619047619047619, "def_ypp": 6.762886597938144, "early_down_ypp": 6.054744525547445 }, "home": { "off_drives": 52, "def_drives": 56, "off_points_proxy": 140, "def_points_proxy": 89, "off_plays": 342, "off_yards": 2286, "def_plays": 425, "def_yards": 1996, "early_plays": 251, "early_yards": 1591, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858423", "401866420", "401866424", "401866429", "401866433" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.6923076923076925, "def_ppd": 1.5892857142857142, "off_ypp": 6.684210526315789, "def_ypp": 4.696470588235294, "early_down_ypp": 6.338645418326693 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Light and variable wind. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. Calm wind. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Amherst&state=MA&site=BOX&textField1=42.3751&textField2=-72.52&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866440", "matchup": "Miami (OH) RedHawks at Massachusetts Minutemen", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/4688904/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/4700147/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/4909541/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/4920153/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5092954/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5227849/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5264764/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5327585/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5388331/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5388332/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/4871003/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/4876642/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5079772/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5085354/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5141549/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5153885/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5193270/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5209576/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5214639/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5388435/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Amherst&state=MA&site=BOX&textField1=42.3751&textField2=-72.52&e=1", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/113/roster?season=2026", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/193/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview" ], "tu": { "id": "401866440", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401866440", "date": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3985", "fullName": "Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Amherst", "state": "MA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "193", "away_name": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "113", "home_name": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 25.076923076923077, "pa": 22.0, "margin": 3.0769230769230766, "event_ids": [ "401762791", "401752818", "401760376", "401762827", "401762873", "401762833", "401762841", "401762874", "401762852", "401762860", "401762865", "401762875", "401777329" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 29.2, "margin": -2.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401866417", "401856797", "401861970", "401866477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 11.083333333333334, "pa": 38.583333333333336, "margin": -27.5, "event_ids": [ "401762456", "401762816", "401752830", "401752721", "401762832", "401762837", "401762840", "401762847", "401762851", "401762859", "401762863", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.8, "pa": 17.8, "margin": 14.0, "event_ids": [ "401858423", "401866420", "401866424", "401866429", "401866433" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.830128205128204, 16.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 22.3, 30.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.4176923076923078, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 10.482756410256407, 46.48275641025641 ], "home": [ 5.60314102564103, 41.60314102564103 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401866440", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401866440", "teamId": "193", "team": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "side": "away", "opponent": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5141549", "name": "David McComb", "position": "QB", "workload": "65/103, 1121 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5141549/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5388435", "name": "Caleb Heavner", "position": "QB", "workload": "24/33, 234 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5388435/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5153885", "name": "Rodney Nelson", "position": "RB", "workload": "44 CAR, 154 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5153885/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5214639", "name": "Lazaro Rogers", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5214639/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5193270", "name": "D'Shawntae Jones", "position": "RB", "workload": "26 CAR, 72 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5193270/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5079772", "name": "Damarion Witten", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 274 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5079772/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5085354", "name": "Lynel Billups-Williams", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 265 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5085354/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4876642", "name": "Maleek Huggins", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 262 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/4876642/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5209576", "name": "Brendan Loftus", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5209576/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4871003", "name": "Christian Ross", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 52 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/4871003/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Miami (OH) RedHawks: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/193/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401866440", "teamId": "113", "team": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "side": "home", "opponent": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4920153", "name": "William Watson III", "position": "QB", "workload": "74/100, 820 YDS, 7 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/4920153/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5327585", "name": "Aedan McCarthy", "position": "QB", "workload": "2/4, 11 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5327585/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5388331", "name": "Curtis Kimmons IV", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 262 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5388331/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5264764", "name": "Elijah Faulkner", "position": "RB", "workload": "52 CAR, 246 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5264764/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5227849", "name": "Jordan Washington", "position": "RB", "workload": "11 CAR, 54 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5227849/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4909541", "name": "T.Y. Harding", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 236 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/4909541/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5388332", "name": "Jabari Lewis", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 152 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5388332/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4700147", "name": "Joseph Griffin Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/4700147/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5092954", "name": "Max Dowling", "position": "TE", "workload": "11 REC, 80 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5092954/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4688904", "name": "Reece Adkins", "position": "TE", "workload": "9 REC, 75 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/4688904/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Massachusetts Minutemen: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/113/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.482756410256407, 30.582307692307694 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.830128205128204, 16.541666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 22.3, 30.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.4176923076923078, 0.08230769230769219 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Miami (OH) RedHawks at Massachusetts Minutemen", "market": { "id": "401866440", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866440", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.703490+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.953320+00:00", "home_line": 4.5, "away_line": -4.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 44.5, "under_line": 44.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 164.0, "away_ml": -198.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 4.5, "average_total": 44.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -3.1118881118881134, "combined": 50.38461538461539, "spread_buffer": 1.3881118881118866, "total_difference": 5.884615384615387 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -3.1118881118881134, "combined": 50.38461538461539, "spread_buffer": 1.3881118881118866, "total_difference": 5.884615384615387 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.11867866028660146, "combined": 50.91619982481407, "spread_buffer": 4.6186786602866015, "total_difference": 6.416199824814072 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.11867866028660146, "combined": 50.91619982481407, "spread_buffer": 4.6186786602866015, "total_difference": 6.416199824814072 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -4.879615384615377, "combined": 52.08589743589744, "spread_buffer": -0.37961538461537714, "total_difference": 7.5858974358974365 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -4.879615384615377, "combined": 52.08589743589744, "spread_buffer": -0.37961538461537714, "total_difference": 7.5858974358974365 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401866440", "matchup": "Miami (OH) RedHawks at Massachusetts Minutemen", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "FAVORITE_FAILS_OPPONENT_OFFENSE_CASE", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "line": -4.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866440", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.703490+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.953320+00:00", "home_line": 4.5, "away_line": -4.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 44.5, "under_line": 44.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 164.0, "away_ml": -198.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 0.37961538461537714, "production_adjusted": 0.37961538461537714, "minimum_all_scenarios": -6.599551282051287, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "directional_buffer": -1.3881118881118866, "scenario_minimum": -1.3881118881118866 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "directional_buffer": -4.6186786602866015, "scenario_minimum": -4.6186786602866015 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "directional_buffer": 0.37961538461537714, "scenario_minimum": 0.37961538461537714 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "directional_buffer": 0.37961538461537714, "scenario_minimum": 0.37961538461537714 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.482756410256407, 30.582307692307694 ], "directional_buffer": -6.599551282051287, "stressed_buffer": -9.599551282051287 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "directional_buffer": 0.37961538461537714, "stressed_buffer": -2.620384615384623 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.482756410256407, 30.582307692307694 ], "directional_buffer": -6.599551282051287, "stressed_buffer": -9.599551282051287 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.482756410256407, 30.582307692307694 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.830128205128204, 16.541666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 22.3, 30.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.4176923076923078, 0.08230769230769219 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": false }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Amherst&state=MA&site=BOX&textField1=42.3751&textField2=-72.52&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:00:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Light and variable wind.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401866440", "matchup": "Miami (OH) RedHawks at Massachusetts Minutemen", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 44.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866440", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.703490+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.953320+00:00", "home_line": 4.5, "away_line": -4.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 44.5, "under_line": 44.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 164.0, "away_ml": -198.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 7.5858974358974365, "production_adjusted": 7.5858974358974365, "minimum_all_scenarios": 7.5858974358974365, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "directional_buffer": 5.884615384615387, "scenario_minimum": 5.884615384615387 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "directional_buffer": 6.416199824814072, "scenario_minimum": 6.416199824814072 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "directional_buffer": 7.5858974358974365, "scenario_minimum": 7.5858974358974365 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "directional_buffer": 7.5858974358974365, "scenario_minimum": 7.5858974358974365 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "directional_buffer": 7.5858974358974365, "stressed_buffer": 4.5858974358974365 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "directional_buffer": 7.5858974358974365, "stressed_buffer": 4.5858974358974365 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.482756410256407, 30.582307692307694 ], "directional_buffer": 14.5650641025641, "stressed_buffer": 11.5650641025641 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.482756410256407, 30.582307692307694 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.830128205128204, 16.541666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 22.3, 30.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.4176923076923078, 0.08230769230769219 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Amherst&state=MA&site=BOX&textField1=42.3751&textField2=-72.52&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:00:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 17.25, "margin": 5.583333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767415", "401767593", "401767573", "401754617", "401767592", "401767407", "401767568", "401767561", "401767582", "401767590", "401767586", "401767557" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 25.166666666666668, "pa": 28.5, "margin": -3.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868394", "401868186", "401866416", "401868337", "401868390", "401868375" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.75, "pa": 24.75, "margin": 4.0, "event_ids": [ "401754517", "401767149", "401767150", "401767151", "401767152", "401767153", "401767154", "401767155", "401767176", "401767177", "401767147", "401767178" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30.0, "pa": 17.666666666666668, "margin": 12.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866614", "401866626", "401866628", "401866637", "401866643", "401866650" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.791666666666664, 23.0 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.416666666666668, 29.25 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.4083333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.0, 29.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 29.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401866661", "matchup": "Wofford Terriers at Elon Phoenix", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Elon Phoenix: QB Elijah Guttman/TJ Crews IV, RB Kamerin McDowell-Moore/Dan Frederick/Xavier Spadacini, WR Kenaz McMillian/Jaedon Alford/Jamarien Dalton, TE Dylan Magazu/Brendan Hester; Wofford Terriers: QB Ethan Drumm/J.T. Fayard, RB Gerald Modest Jr./Davis Penn, WR Isaiah Scott/Colby Alexander/Ivory Aikens, TE Jaden Fowler/Jack Ewell", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 22.383333333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.791666666666664, 23.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.416666666666668, 29.25 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.4083333333333332, 2.908333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 72, "def_drives": 66, "off_points_proxy": 134, "def_points_proxy": 157, "off_plays": 438, "off_yards": 2397, "def_plays": 530, "def_yards": 3568, "early_plays": 305, "early_yards": 1821, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866416", "401868186", "401868337", "401868375", "401868390", "401868394" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.8611111111111112, "def_ppd": 2.378787878787879, "off_ypp": 5.472602739726027, "def_ypp": 6.7320754716981135, "early_down_ypp": 5.970491803278689 }, "home": { "off_drives": 82, "def_drives": 79, "off_points_proxy": 178, "def_points_proxy": 99, "off_plays": 498, "off_yards": 3016, "def_plays": 519, "def_yards": 2413, "early_plays": 362, "early_yards": 2124, "explosive_plays": 54, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866614", "401866626", "401866628", "401866637", "401866643", "401866650" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.1707317073170733, "def_ppd": 1.2531645569620253, "off_ypp": 6.056224899598393, "def_ypp": 4.649325626204239, "early_down_ypp": 5.867403314917127 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2210", "teamName": "Elon Phoenix", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866650", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Elon Phoenix at New Hampshire Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Wildcat Stadium (NH)", "address": { "city": "Durham", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03824", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "160", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "160", "displayName": "New Hampshire Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2210", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 23.0, "displayValue": "23" }, "team": { "id": "2210", "displayName": "Elon Phoenix" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://elonphoenix.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2747", "teamName": "Wofford Terriers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868375", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Wofford Terriers at Furman Paladins", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Paladin Stadium", "address": { "city": "Greenville", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29617", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "231", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 25.0, "displayValue": "25" }, "team": { "id": "231", "displayName": "Furman Paladins" } }, { "id": "2747", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 32.0, "displayValue": "32" }, "team": { "id": "2747", "displayName": "Wofford Terriers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Elon. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Elon&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0941&textField2=-79.5117&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.511680+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Rain likely, mainly between 11am and 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 65. Northeast wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tonight Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Low around 62. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866661", "matchup": "Wofford Terriers at Elon Phoenix", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://elonphoenix.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Elon&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0941&textField2=-79.5117&e=0", "https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401866661", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401866661", "date": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3894", "fullName": "Rhodes Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Elon", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2747", "away_name": "Wofford Terriers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2210", "home_name": "Elon Phoenix", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 21.195833333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 17.25, "margin": 5.583333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767415", "401767593", "401767573", "401754617", "401767592", "401767407", "401767568", "401767561", "401767582", "401767590", "401767586", "401767557" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 25.166666666666668, "pa": 28.5, "margin": -3.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868394", "401868186", "401866416", "401868337", "401868390", "401868375" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.75, "pa": 24.75, "margin": 4.0, "event_ids": [ "401754517", "401767149", "401767150", "401767151", "401767152", "401767153", "401767154", "401767155", "401767176", "401767177", "401767147", "401767178" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30.0, "pa": 17.666666666666668, "margin": 12.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866614", "401866626", "401866628", "401866637", "401866643", "401866650" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.791666666666664, 23.0 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.416666666666668, 29.25 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.4083333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.1958333333333329, 41.19583333333333 ], "home": [ 9.033333333333331, 49.03333333333333 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401866661", "matchup": "Wofford Terriers at Elon Phoenix", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3894", "guid": "c08b8793-d0b9-3e79-9fc8-6c9b3b26e03c", "fullName": "Rhodes Stadium", "address": { "city": "Elon", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "27244", "country": "USA" }, "grass": true, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2210", "teamName": "Elon Phoenix", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866650", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Elon Phoenix at New Hampshire Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Wildcat Stadium (NH)", "address": { "city": "Durham", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03824", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "160", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "160", "displayName": "New Hampshire Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2210", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 23.0, "displayValue": "23" }, "team": { "id": "2210", "displayName": "Elon Phoenix" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://elonphoenix.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2747", "teamName": "Wofford Terriers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868375", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Wofford Terriers at Furman Paladins", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Paladin Stadium", "address": { "city": "Greenville", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29617", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "231", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 25.0, "displayValue": "25" }, "team": { "id": "231", "displayName": "Furman Paladins" } }, { "id": "2747", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 32.0, "displayValue": "32" }, "team": { "id": "2747", "displayName": "Wofford Terriers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Elon. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2210", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2747" ], "finding": "Elon Phoenix: QB Elijah Guttman/TJ Crews IV, RB Kamerin McDowell-Moore/Dan Frederick/Xavier Spadacini, WR Kenaz McMillian/Jaedon Alford/Jamarien Dalton, TE Dylan Magazu/Brendan Hester; Wofford Terriers: QB Ethan Drumm/J.T. Fayard, RB Gerald Modest Jr./Davis Penn, WR Isaiah Scott/Colby Alexander/Ivory Aikens, TE Jaden Fowler/Jack Ewell" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2210", "teamName": "Elon Phoenix", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866650", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Elon Phoenix at New Hampshire Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Wildcat Stadium (NH)", "address": { "city": "Durham", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03824", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "160", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "160", "displayName": "New Hampshire Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2210", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 23.0, "displayValue": "23" }, "team": { "id": "2210", "displayName": "Elon Phoenix" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://elonphoenix.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2747", "teamName": "Wofford Terriers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868375", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Wofford Terriers at Furman Paladins", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Paladin Stadium", "address": { "city": "Greenville", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29617", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "231", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 25.0, "displayValue": "25" }, "team": { "id": "231", "displayName": "Furman Paladins" } }, { "id": "2747", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 32.0, "displayValue": "32" }, "team": { "id": "2747", "displayName": "Wofford Terriers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Elon. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Elon&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0941&textField2=-79.5117&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.511680+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Rain likely, mainly between 11am and 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 65. Northeast wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tonight Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Low around 62. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 22.383333333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 36.416666666666664, 26.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 26.5, 25.666666666666668 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 14, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 27.5, 24.5 ], "current_rates": [ 39.0, 27.5 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28.0, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.371217835004483, 34.0416712555403 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.371217835004483, 34.0416712555403 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.371217835004483, 34.0416712555403 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 34.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 34.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.416666666666664, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": 9.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401767547", "401752819", "401767235", "401767218", "401767447", "401767511", "401767505", "401767539", "401767499", "401767548", "401767543", "401767445" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 26.5, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 0.8333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401874035", "401867889", "401867890", "401858448", "401867868", "401867891" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 24.5, "margin": 3.0, "event_ids": [ "401756853", "401767482", "401767120", "401767541", "401767510", "401767496", "401767448", "401767538", "401767441", "401767506", "401767542", "401767543", "401836195", "401836218" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 39.0, "pa": 27.5, "margin": 11.5, "event_ids": [ "401867882", "401867883", "401867884", "401860885", "401867885", "401867859" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.458333333333332, 27.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.0, 32.333333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.39166666666666716, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.416666666666664, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": 9.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401767547", "401752819", "401767235", "401767218", "401767447", "401767511", "401767505", "401767539", "401767499", "401767548", "401767543", "401767445" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 26.5, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 0.8333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401874035", "401867889", "401867890", "401858448", "401867868", "401867891" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 24.5, "margin": 3.0, "event_ids": [ "401756853", "401767482", "401767120", "401767541", "401767510", "401767496", "401767448", "401767538", "401767441", "401767506", "401767542", "401767543", "401836195", "401836218" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 39.0, "pa": 27.5, "margin": 11.5, "event_ids": [ "401867882", "401867883", "401867884", "401860885", "401867885", "401867859" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.458333333333332, 27.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.0, 32.333333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.39166666666666716, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401867886", "matchup": "Southern Illinois Salukis at South Dakota Coyotes", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "South Dakota Coyotes: QB Austyn Modrzewski/Jackson Proctor, RB Charles Pierre Jr./Carson Fletcher/Reid Watkins, WR Tysen Boze/Tennel Bryant, TE Chris Herrin/Jesse Miller; Southern Illinois Salukis: QB DJ Williams/Jake Curry, RB Chandler Chapman/Edward Robinson/Quade Chatmon, WR Kyle Thomas/Markell Quick/Allen Middleton, TE Karsen Konkel", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.066666666666666, 31.6 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 30.458333333333332, 27.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.0, 32.333333333333336 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.39166666666666716, 1.891666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 74, "def_drives": 75, "off_points_proxy": 153, "def_points_proxy": 143, "off_plays": 545, "off_yards": 3305, "def_plays": 475, "def_yards": 2816, "early_plays": 383, "early_yards": 1920, "explosive_plays": 52, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858448", "401867868", "401867889", "401867890", "401867891", "401874035" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.0675675675675675, "def_ppd": 1.9066666666666667, "off_ypp": 6.064220183486238, "def_ypp": 5.928421052631579, "early_down_ypp": 5.013054830287206 }, "home": { "off_drives": 73, "def_drives": 74, "off_points_proxy": 235, "def_points_proxy": 168, "off_plays": 469, "off_yards": 3085, "def_plays": 528, "def_yards": 3026, "early_plays": 354, "early_yards": 2376, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401860885", "401867859", "401867882", "401867883", "401867884", "401867885" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 3.219178082191781, "def_ppd": 2.27027027027027, "off_ypp": 6.577825159914712, "def_ypp": 5.731060606060606, "early_down_ypp": 6.711864406779661 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "233", "teamName": "South Dakota Coyotes", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867859", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Indiana State Sycamores at South Dakota Coyotes", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "The DakotaDome", "address": { "city": "Vermillion", "state": "SD", "zipCode": "57069", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "233", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "233", "displayName": "South Dakota Coyotes" } }, { "id": "282", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "282", "displayName": "Indiana State Sycamores" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goyotes.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "79", "teamName": "Southern Illinois Salukis", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867891", "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "name": "Youngstown State Penguins at Southern Illinois Salukis", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Saluki Stadium", "address": { "city": "Carbondale", "state": "IL", "zipCode": "62901", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "79", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "79", "displayName": "Southern Illinois Salukis" } }, { "id": "2754", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2754", "displayName": "Youngstown State Penguins" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://siusalukis.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Vermillion. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Vermillion%2C%20SD", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.511680+00:00", "status": "indoor", "currentForecast": "Enclosed venue; field weather effect not applied. Travel conditions unestimated.", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867886", "matchup": "Southern Illinois Salukis at South Dakota Coyotes", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Vermillion%2C%20SD", "https://goyotes.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://siusalukis.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401867886", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867886", "date": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "1905", "fullName": "The DakotaDome", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Vermillion", "state": "SD", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "79", "away_name": "Southern Illinois Salukis", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "233", "home_name": "South Dakota Coyotes", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.416666666666664, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": 9.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401767547", "401752819", "401767235", "401767218", "401767447", "401767511", "401767505", "401767539", "401767499", "401767548", "401767543", "401767445" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 26.5, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 0.8333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401874035", "401867889", "401867890", "401858448", "401867868", "401867891" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 24.5, "margin": 3.0, "event_ids": [ "401756853", "401767482", "401767120", "401767541", "401767510", "401767496", "401767448", "401767538", "401767441", "401767506", "401767542", "401767543", "401836195", "401836218" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 39.0, "pa": 27.5, "margin": 11.5, "event_ids": [ "401867882", "401867883", "401867884", "401860885", "401867885", "401867859" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.458333333333332, 27.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.0, 32.333333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.39166666666666716, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 8.337499999999999, 48.3375 ], "home": [ 11.600000000000001, 51.6 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401867886", "matchup": "Southern Illinois Salukis at South Dakota Coyotes", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1905", "guid": "236fb64d-861d-3ff1-b514-0a10a01d111a", "fullName": "The DakotaDome", "address": { "city": "Vermillion", "state": "SD", "zipCode": "57069", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "233", "teamName": "South Dakota Coyotes", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867859", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Indiana State Sycamores at South Dakota Coyotes", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "The DakotaDome", "address": { "city": "Vermillion", "state": "SD", "zipCode": "57069", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "233", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "233", "displayName": "South Dakota Coyotes" } }, { "id": "282", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "282", "displayName": "Indiana State Sycamores" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goyotes.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": 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No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401867886", "matchup": "Southern Illinois Salukis at South Dakota Coyotes", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 58.5, "price": -113.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867886", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.897779+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.147982+00:00", "home_line": -10.5, "away_line": 10.5, "home_line_price": 100.0, "away_line_price": -124.0, "total": 58.5, "under_line": 58.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -395.0, "away_ml": 292.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 1.4375, "production_adjusted": 1.4375, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.4375, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.979166666666664, 30.458333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": -0.0625, "scenario_minimum": -0.0625 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.371217835004483, 34.0416712555403 ], "directional_buffer": -0.0871109094552196, "scenario_minimum": -0.0871109094552196 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "directional_buffer": 1.4375, "scenario_minimum": 1.4375 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "directional_buffer": 1.4375, "scenario_minimum": 1.4375 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "directional_buffer": 1.4375, "stressed_buffer": -1.5625 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "directional_buffer": 1.4375, "stressed_buffer": -1.5625 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.06666666666667, 31.6 ], "directional_buffer": 3.1666666666666714, "stressed_buffer": 0.1666666666666714 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.066666666666666, 31.6 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 30.458333333333332, 27.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.0, 32.333333333333336 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.39166666666666716, 1.891666666666667 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "Enclosed playing venue", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Vermillion%2C%20SD", "window": "Enclosed venue; field weather effect not applied. Travel conditions unestimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401867974", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867974", "date": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3991", "fullName": "William \"Dick\" Price Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Norfolk", "state": "VA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2355", "away_name": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2450", "home_name": "Norfolk State Spartans", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.041666666666668, 38.4125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.041666666666668, 38.4125 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.041666666666668, 35.4125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2450", "side": "home", "player": "Deljay Bailey", "replacement": "Da'Jean Golmond", "condition": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "base_score": [ 19.041666666666668, 38.4125 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.041666666666668, 35.4125 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.041666666666668, 35.4125 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 8, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 11.875, 49.25 ], "current_rates": [ 2.5, 49.75 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 20.916666666666668, 35.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 30.833333333333332, 27.333333333333332 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.0, 38.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.0, 38.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.460465465885747, 40.30155449595924 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.460465465885747, 40.30155449595924 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.460465465885747, 37.30155449595924 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2450", "side": "home", "player": "Deljay Bailey", "replacement": "Da'Jean Golmond", "condition": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "base_score": [ 17.460465465885747, 40.30155449595924 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.460465465885747, 37.30155449595924 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.460465465885747, 37.30155449595924 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 40.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 40.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2450", "side": "home", "player": "Deljay Bailey", "replacement": "Da'Jean Golmond", "condition": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "base_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "isolated_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 8, "pf": 11.875, "pa": 49.25, "margin": -37.375, "event_ids": [ "401767655", "401779071", "401773144", "401767400", "401767459", "401773097", "401773992", "401767662" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 2.5, "pa": 49.75, "margin": -47.25, "event_ids": [ "401866613", "401909014", "401867966", "401868942" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.916666666666668, "pa": 35.583333333333336, "margin": -14.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767327", "401767404", "401752833", "401767405", "401767406", "401767183", "401767407", "401767408", "401767346", "401767409", "401767402", "401767397" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30.833333333333332, "pa": 27.333333333333332, "margin": 3.5, "event_ids": [ "401867972", "401867973", "401858220", "401866641", "401867687", "401867918" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.729166666666668, 35.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 14.916666666666666, 40.291666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -7.345833333333333, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 5.0, 53.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 5.0, 53.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2450", "side": "home", "player": "Deljay Bailey", "replacement": "Da'Jean Golmond", "condition": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "base_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "isolated_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 8, "pf": 11.875, "pa": 49.25, "margin": -37.375, "event_ids": [ "401767655", "401779071", "401773144", "401767400", "401767459", "401773097", "401773992", "401767662" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 2.5, "pa": 49.75, "margin": -47.25, "event_ids": [ "401866613", "401909014", "401867966", "401868942" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.916666666666668, "pa": 35.583333333333336, "margin": -14.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767327", "401767404", "401752833", "401767405", "401767406", "401767183", "401767407", "401767408", "401767346", "401767409", "401767402", "401767397" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30.833333333333332, "pa": 27.333333333333332, "margin": 3.5, "event_ids": [ "401867972", "401867973", "401858220", "401866641", "401867687", "401867918" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.729166666666668, 35.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 14.916666666666666, 40.291666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -7.345833333333333, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 5.0, 53.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 5.0, 53.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "Two Golmond starts already influence baseline; no second statistical injury deduction. Human -3 remains explicit user assumption and may be adverse despite better raw Golmond efficiency." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401867974", "matchup": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Norfolk State Spartans", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Norfolk State Spartans", "names": [ "Deljay Bailey" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx" }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Norfolk State Spartans: QB Da'Jean Golmond/Evan Helfrich, RB Jalyn Daniels/Ravon Moore/Kiron Benjamin, WR Elyjah Mitchell/Brevin Caldwell/Paul Billups II, TE Rocco Ciocca; Virginia Lynchburg Dragons: QB Max Zavala, RB Israel Rhodes, WR Omarion Hairston/Dustin Placide, TE no primary receiver established", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 9.383333333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.729166666666668, 35.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 14.916666666666666, 40.291666666666664 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -14.345833333333333, 15.845833333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 25, "def_drives": 24, "off_points_proxy": 3, "def_points_proxy": 105, "off_plays": 178, "off_yards": 816, "def_plays": 162, "def_yards": 1274, "early_plays": 123, "early_yards": 356, "explosive_plays": 10, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866613", "401867966", "401868942", "401909014" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 0.12, "def_ppd": 4.375, "off_ypp": 4.584269662921348, "def_ypp": 7.864197530864198, "early_down_ypp": 2.894308943089431 }, "home": { "off_drives": 72, "def_drives": 72, "off_points_proxy": 171, "def_points_proxy": 146, "off_plays": 533, "off_yards": 3405, "def_plays": 451, "def_yards": 2797, "early_plays": 377, "early_yards": 2283, "explosive_plays": 44, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858220", "401866641", "401867687", "401867918", "401867972", "401867973" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.375, "def_ppd": 2.0277777777777777, "off_ypp": 6.3883677298311445, "def_ypp": 6.201773835920178, "early_down_ypp": 6.0557029177718835 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2450", "teamName": "Norfolk State Spartans", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867918", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Norfolk State Spartans at Robert Morris Colonials", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Joe Walton Stadium", "address": { "city": "Moon Township", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "15108", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2523", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "2523", "displayName": "Robert Morris Colonials" } }, { "id": "2450", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2450", "displayName": "Norfolk State Spartans" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nsuspartans.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2355", "teamName": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868942", "date": "2026-09-19T20:00Z", "name": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-19T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Daytona Stadium", "address": { "city": "Daytona Beach", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32124", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2065", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 62.0, "displayValue": "62" }, "team": { "id": "2065", "displayName": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2355", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2355", "displayName": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": null, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Norfolk. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated.", "scheduleExplanation": "Own official site failed; official Norfolk Oct8 opponent preview confirms Oct10.", "restCorrection": "ESPN history lastSep19 incomplete. Official Norfolk preview: last competitive game Sep26 at Bluefield; Oct1 scrimmage excluded from record but physical workload relevant. 14 calendar days between competitive dates; exact kickoff/recovery timing unavailable." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Norfolk&state=VA&site=AKQ&textField1=36.8473&textField2=-76.2853&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.513691+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Cloudy, with a high near 74. East wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Tonight Rain likely, mainly between 11pm and 2am, then showers after 2am. Low around 68. East wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "Two Golmond starts already influence baseline; no second statistical injury deduction. Human -3 remains explicit user assumption and may be adverse despite better raw Golmond efficiency." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867974", "matchup": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Norfolk State Spartans", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Norfolk State Spartans", "names": [ "Deljay Bailey" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx" }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Norfolk&state=VA&site=AKQ&textField1=36.8473&textField2=-76.2853&e=1", "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "https://nsuspartans.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401867974", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867974", "date": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3991", "fullName": "William \"Dick\" Price Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Norfolk", "state": "VA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2355", "away_name": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2450", "home_name": "Norfolk State Spartans", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 8, "pf": 11.875, "pa": 49.25, "margin": -37.375, "event_ids": [ "401767655", "401779071", "401773144", "401767400", "401767459", "401773097", "401773992", "401767662" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 2.5, "pa": 49.75, "margin": -47.25, "event_ids": [ "401866613", "401909014", "401867966", "401868942" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.916666666666668, "pa": 35.583333333333336, "margin": -14.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767327", "401767404", "401752833", "401767405", "401767406", "401767183", "401767407", "401767408", "401767346", "401767409", "401767402", "401767397" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30.833333333333332, "pa": 27.333333333333332, "margin": 3.5, "event_ids": [ "401867972", "401867973", "401858220", "401866641", "401867687", "401867918" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.729166666666668, 35.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 14.916666666666666, 40.291666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -7.345833333333333, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0, 28.977083333333333 ], "home": [ 29.53333333333333, 77.53333333333333 ], "team_allowance": 24, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401867974", "matchup": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Norfolk State Spartans", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3991", "guid": "ff239275-b872-3dba-92b3-1f10218e5880", "fullName": "William \"Dick\" Price Stadium", "address": { "city": "Norfolk", "state": "VA", "zipCode": "23504", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2450", "teamName": "Norfolk State Spartans", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867918", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Norfolk State Spartans at Robert Morris Colonials", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Joe Walton Stadium", "address": { "city": "Moon Township", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "15108", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2523", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "2523", "displayName": "Robert Morris Colonials" } }, { "id": "2450", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2450", "displayName": "Norfolk State Spartans" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nsuspartans.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2355", "teamName": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868942", "date": "2026-09-19T20:00Z", "name": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-19T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Daytona Stadium", "address": { "city": "Daytona Beach", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32124", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2065", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 62.0, "displayValue": "62" }, "team": { "id": "2065", "displayName": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2355", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2355", "displayName": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": null, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Norfolk. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated.", "scheduleExplanation": "Own official site failed; official Norfolk Oct8 opponent preview confirms Oct10.", "restCorrection": "ESPN history lastSep19 incomplete. Official Norfolk preview: last competitive game Sep26 at Bluefield; Oct1 scrimmage excluded from record but physical workload relevant. 14 calendar days between competitive dates; exact kickoff/recovery timing unavailable." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2450", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2355" ], "finding": "Norfolk State Spartans: QB Da'Jean Golmond/Evan Helfrich, RB Jalyn Daniels/Ravon Moore/Kiron Benjamin, WR Elyjah Mitchell/Brevin Caldwell/Paul Billups II, TE Rocco Ciocca; Virginia Lynchburg Dragons: QB Max Zavala, RB Israel Rhodes, WR Omarion Hairston/Dustin Placide, TE no primary receiver established" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2450", "teamName": "Norfolk State Spartans", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867918", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Norfolk State Spartans at Robert Morris Colonials", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Joe Walton Stadium", "address": { "city": "Moon Township", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "15108", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2523", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "2523", "displayName": "Robert Morris Colonials" } }, { "id": "2450", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2450", "displayName": "Norfolk State Spartans" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nsuspartans.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2355", "teamName": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868942", "date": "2026-09-19T20:00Z", "name": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-19T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Daytona Stadium", "address": { "city": "Daytona Beach", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32124", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2065", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 62.0, "displayValue": "62" }, "team": { "id": "2065", "displayName": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2355", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2355", "displayName": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": null, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Norfolk. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated.", "scheduleExplanation": "Own official site failed; official Norfolk Oct8 opponent preview confirms Oct10.", "restCorrection": "ESPN history lastSep19 incomplete. Official Norfolk preview: last competitive game Sep26 at Bluefield; Oct1 scrimmage excluded from record but physical workload relevant. 14 calendar days between competitive dates; exact kickoff/recovery timing unavailable." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Norfolk&state=VA&site=AKQ&textField1=36.8473&textField2=-76.2853&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.513691+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Cloudy, with a high near 74. East wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Tonight Rain likely, mainly between 11pm and 2am, then showers after 2am. Low around 68. East wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "CONDITIONAL AVAILABILITY: Deljay Bailey: CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.; NON-DI OPPONENT sample: preserve engine eligibility and missing-history gates.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [ { "teamId": "2355", "error": "('Connection aborted.', ConnectionResetError(10054, 'An existing connection was forcibly closed by the remote host', None, 10054, None))" } ], "replacementScenarios": [ { "eventId": "401867974", "teamId": "2450", "teamName": "Norfolk State Spartans", "incumbent": "Deljay Bailey", "replacement": "Da'Jean Golmond", "role": "QB", "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "sourceDate": "2026-10-08", "status": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "trigger": "Oct8 official preview: Bailey still nursing shoulder injury; Golmond started last two games. Qualifying material-limitation branch does not falsely state Bailey ruled out.", "history": { "Deljay Bailey": { "2024": "Grambling:7 appearances,39/72,440 yards,0 TD,3 INT;36 rushes/42 yards/2 TD. Starts unavailable.", "2025": "Itawamba CC:157/229,1653 yards,14 TD per Norfolk official bio; game/start count, interceptions and sacks unavailable. JUCO production retained separately, no NCAA conversion.", "2026": "Norfolk State:59/90,539 yards,3 TD,3 INT;43 rushes/111 yards/3 TD;9 sacks. Separate Grambling/JUCO/Norfolk team splits." }, "Da'Jean Golmond": { "2024": "Pre-college; no NCAA production.", "2025": "Denham Springs HS:2544 passing yards/32 TD;477 rushing yards/10 TD per official bio. High-school data contextual only, not converted.", "2026": "Norfolk State freshman:53/87,683 yards,5 TD,INT;19 rushes/125 yards/2 TD;2 sacks. Started last two;371 pass yards at Robert Morris." } }, "familiarity": "Both in Michael Vick current system; Golmond has two recent starts, coach publicly praises poise and teammate belief. No unverified claim of pre-college relationship. Protection-call experience/practice reps unreported.", "opportunityChange": "Golmond lead role with some Bailey action expected; mixed QB snap share unestimated. Full Bailey return is separate branch.", "offensiveLine": "Official preview cites C Tyler Leinberger 200+ snaps and strong pass blocking; score conversion unsupported.", "opponentContext": "Virginia Lynchburg non-DI NCCAA; severe cross-division sample/identity limitations must survive normal gates.", "doubleCounting": "Two Golmond starts already influence baseline; no second statistical injury deduction. Human -3 remains explicit user assumption and may be adverse despite better raw Golmond efficiency.", "statisticalReplacementAdjustment": null, "statisticalReplacementForecast": "Registered baseline proxy; adjusted player-specific score effect unestimated.", "branches": [ { "condition": "Bailey fully recovers to reference role", "humanDeduction": 0 }, { "condition": "Bailey materially limited and Golmond carries replaced role", "humanDeduction": -3 } ], "appliedConservativeSensitivity": -3, "overlayVersion": "football-replacement-human-v1", "reviewedUTC": "2026-10-10T10:13:05.267848+00:00", "additionalIndependentAdjustment": 0, "opponentPointAdjustment": 0, "jointScenario": "Only one qualifying covered-role scenario identified for this team. Joint scenario equals isolated -3 branch; no stacked QB/WR or injury-headcount deductions.", "gateOutcome": "Pre-price: retain PASS_PENDING_GATES. Parent must evaluate base and both availability branches in each of the four configurations after immutable freeze; any selection failing applicable branch becomes PASS, never opposite-side promotion.", "scoreExpression": "adjusted team points = retained registered baseline - 3.0 in qualifying branch; available branch = baseline. Statistical replacement-specific conversion is unestimated, not proven zero.", "baseAndAdjustedScores": "Parent-owned model means pending; attach by eventId and teamId without changing registered arithmetic.", "advancedUncertainty": [ "routes/targets and verified drops unavailable", "exact game-day snap allocation unconfirmed", "no calibrated player-to-score conversion", "protection-call experience and full practice participation unavailable" ] } ] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 9.383333333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.729166666666668, 35.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 14.916666666666666, 40.291666666666664 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -14.345833333333333, 15.845833333333333 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Norfolk State Spartans", "market": { "id": "401867974", "quotes": [], "average_home_line": null, "average_total": null, "spread_quote_count": 0, "total_quote_count": 0, "average_status": "UNAVAILABLE", "complete_required_market": false }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 19.370833333333334, "combined": 57.454166666666666, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": 19.370833333333334, "combined": 57.454166666666666, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 22.84108903007349, "combined": 57.762019961844985, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": 22.84108903007349, "combined": 57.762019961844985, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 48.55625, "combined": 58.510416666666664, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": 48.55625, "combined": 58.510416666666664, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401867974", "matchup": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Norfolk State Spartans", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Norfolk State Spartans", "names": [ "Deljay Bailey" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx" }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } } ], "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Norfolk&state=VA&site=AKQ&textField1=36.8473&textField2=-76.2853&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:00:00-04:00", "window": "Cloudy, with a high near 74. East wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 23, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401867974", "matchup": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Norfolk State Spartans", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Norfolk State Spartans", "names": [ "Deljay Bailey" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx" }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } } ], "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Norfolk&state=VA&site=AKQ&textField1=36.8473&textField2=-76.2853&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:00:00-04:00", "window": "Cloudy, with a high near 74. East wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 23, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 48.55625, "combined": 58.510416666666664, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": 48.55625, "combined": 58.510416666666664, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401867974", "matchup": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Norfolk State Spartans", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Norfolk State Spartans", "names": [ "Deljay Bailey" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx" }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } } ], "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Norfolk&state=VA&site=AKQ&textField1=36.8473&textField2=-76.2853&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:00:00-04:00", "window": "Cloudy, with a high near 74. East wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 23, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401867974", "matchup": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Norfolk State Spartans", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Norfolk State Spartans", "names": [ "Deljay Bailey" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx" }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } } ], "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Norfolk&state=VA&site=AKQ&textField1=36.8473&textField2=-76.2853&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:00:00-04:00", "window": "Cloudy, with a high near 74. East wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 23, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "401868256", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868256", "date": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3655", "fullName": "Brown Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Valparaiso", "state": "IN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2181", "away_name": "Drake Bulldogs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2674", "home_name": "Valparaiso Beacons", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 27.06818181818182 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 27.06818181818182 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 27.06818181818182 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.333333333333332, 17.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 28.0, 38.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 20.333333333333332, 35.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 31.6, 23.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 27.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 27.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.374352935913805, 28.156758585673533 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.374352935913805, 28.156758585673533 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.374352935913805, 28.156758585673533 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.333333333333332, "pa": 17.666666666666668, "margin": 7.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767620", "401767544", "401767541", "401767621", "401767622", "401767606", "401767623", "401767598", "401767624", "401767619", "401767625", "401836195" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 28.0, "pa": 38.6, "margin": -10.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868254", "401868111", "401868255", "401868219", "401868228" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.333333333333332, "pa": 35.583333333333336, "margin": -15.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767655", "401767656", "401767237", "401767502", "401767621", "401767616", "401767649", "401767638", "401767642", "401767646", "401767654", "401767601" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.6, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 8.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868288", "401867867", "401867857", "401868211", "401868270" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.458333333333336, 19.0 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 35.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.37166666666666653, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.333333333333332, "pa": 17.666666666666668, "margin": 7.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767620", "401767544", "401767541", "401767621", "401767622", "401767606", "401767623", "401767598", "401767624", "401767619", "401767625", "401836195" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 28.0, "pa": 38.6, "margin": -10.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868254", "401868111", "401868255", "401868219", "401868228" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.333333333333332, "pa": 35.583333333333336, "margin": -15.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767655", "401767656", "401767237", "401767502", "401767621", "401767616", "401767649", "401767638", "401767642", "401767646", "401767654", "401767601" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.6, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 8.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868288", "401867867", "401867857", "401868211", "401868270" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.458333333333336, 19.0 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 35.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.37166666666666653, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868256", "matchup": "Drake Bulldogs at Valparaiso Beacons", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Valparaiso Beacons: QB Rowan Keefe/Noah Ehrlich, RB Cedric Benning Iii/Michael Rumoro/Russell Tye, WR Micah Mackay/Chris Gundy/Marty O'Keeffe, TE Colin Hayes/Dom DiNuzzo; Drake Bulldogs: QB Riley Warzynski/Chase Spellman, RB Kavaughn Clark/Cody Blicharz/Adrien Robbins, WR Willis Nofsinger/Mitchell January/Aidan Garcia, TE Chase Schutty", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.350833333333334, 36.22833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 30.458333333333336, 19.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.5, 35.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.37166666666666653, 1.1283333333333334 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 59, "off_points_proxy": 134, "def_points_proxy": 181, "off_plays": 479, "off_yards": 3010, "def_plays": 442, "def_yards": 2685, "early_plays": 346, "early_yards": 1965, "explosive_plays": 42, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868111", "401868219", "401868228", "401868254", "401868255" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.2711864406779663, "def_ppd": 3.0677966101694913, "off_ypp": 6.2839248434238, "def_ypp": 6.074660633484163, "early_down_ypp": 5.679190751445087 }, "home": { "off_drives": 50, "def_drives": 50, "off_points_proxy": 94, "def_points_proxy": 102, "off_plays": 331, "off_yards": 1879, "def_plays": 333, "def_yards": 2148, "early_plays": 225, "early_yards": 1259, "explosive_plays": 28, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867857", "401867867", "401868211", "401868270", "401868288" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.88, "def_ppd": 2.04, "off_ypp": 5.676737160120846, "def_ypp": 6.45045045045045, "early_down_ypp": 5.595555555555555 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2674", "teamName": "Valparaiso Beacons", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868270", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Valparaiso Beacons at Morehead State Eagles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Phil Simms Stadium", "address": { "city": "Morehead", "state": "KY", "zipCode": "40351", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2413", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2413", "displayName": "Morehead State Eagles" } }, { "id": "2674", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 37.0, "displayValue": "37" }, "team": { "id": "2674", "displayName": "Valparaiso Beacons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://valpoathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2181", "teamName": "Drake Bulldogs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868228", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Dayton Flyers at Drake Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Drake Stadium (IA)", "address": { "city": "Des Moines", "state": "IA", "zipCode": "50311", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2181", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2181", "displayName": "Drake Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2168", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 22.0, "displayValue": "22" }, "team": { "id": "2168", "displayName": "Dayton Flyers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://godrakebulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Valparaiso. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Valparaiso&state=IN&site=LOT&textField1=41.4773&textField2=-87.051&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.585817+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 79. South southeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868256", "matchup": "Drake Bulldogs at Valparaiso Beacons", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Valparaiso&state=IN&site=LOT&textField1=41.4773&textField2=-87.051&e=0", "https://godrakebulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://valpoathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868256", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868256", "date": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3655", "fullName": "Brown Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Valparaiso", "state": "IN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2181", "away_name": "Drake Bulldogs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2674", "home_name": "Valparaiso Beacons", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.333333333333332, "pa": 17.666666666666668, "margin": 7.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767620", "401767544", "401767541", "401767621", "401767622", "401767606", "401767623", "401767598", "401767624", "401767619", "401767625", "401836195" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 28.0, "pa": 38.6, "margin": -10.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868254", "401868111", "401868255", "401868219", "401868228" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.333333333333332, "pa": 35.583333333333336, "margin": -15.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767655", "401767656", "401767237", "401767502", "401767621", "401767616", "401767649", "401767638", "401767642", "401767646", "401767654", "401767601" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.6, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 8.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868288", "401867867", "401867857", "401868211", "401868270" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.458333333333336, 19.0 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 35.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.37166666666666653, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 8.350833333333334, 48.350833333333334 ], "home": [ 8.178333333333335, 48.178333333333335 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868256", "matchup": "Drake Bulldogs at Valparaiso Beacons", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3655", "guid": "507edfcd-6406-3f3f-9b80-b888fb113f2d", "fullName": "Brown Field", "address": { "city": "Valparaiso", "state": "IN", "zipCode": "46383", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2674", "teamName": "Valparaiso Beacons", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868270", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Valparaiso Beacons at Morehead State Eagles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Phil Simms Stadium", "address": { "city": "Morehead", "state": "KY", "zipCode": "40351", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2413", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2413", "displayName": "Morehead State Eagles" } }, { "id": "2674", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 37.0, "displayValue": "37" }, "team": { "id": "2674", "displayName": "Valparaiso Beacons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://valpoathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2181", "teamName": "Drake Bulldogs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868228", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Dayton Flyers at Drake Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Drake Stadium (IA)", "address": { "city": "Des Moines", "state": "IA", "zipCode": "50311", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2181", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2181", "displayName": "Drake Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2168", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 22.0, "displayValue": "22" }, "team": { "id": "2168", "displayName": "Dayton Flyers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://godrakebulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Valparaiso. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2674", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2181" ], "finding": "Valparaiso Beacons: QB Rowan Keefe/Noah Ehrlich, RB Cedric Benning Iii/Michael Rumoro/Russell Tye, WR Micah Mackay/Chris Gundy/Marty O'Keeffe, TE Colin Hayes/Dom DiNuzzo; Drake Bulldogs: QB Riley Warzynski/Chase Spellman, RB Kavaughn Clark/Cody Blicharz/Adrien Robbins, WR Willis Nofsinger/Mitchell January/Aidan Garcia, TE Chase Schutty" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2674", "teamName": "Valparaiso Beacons", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868270", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Valparaiso Beacons at Morehead State Eagles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Phil Simms Stadium", "address": { "city": "Morehead", "state": "KY", "zipCode": "40351", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2413", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2413", "displayName": "Morehead State Eagles" } }, { "id": "2674", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 37.0, "displayValue": "37" }, "team": { "id": "2674", "displayName": "Valparaiso Beacons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://valpoathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2181", "teamName": "Drake Bulldogs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868228", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Dayton Flyers at Drake Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Drake Stadium (IA)", "address": { "city": "Des Moines", "state": "IA", "zipCode": "50311", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2181", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2181", "displayName": "Drake Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2168", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 22.0, "displayValue": "22" }, "team": { "id": "2168", "displayName": "Dayton Flyers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://godrakebulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Valparaiso. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Valparaiso&state=IN&site=LOT&textField1=41.4773&textField2=-87.051&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.585817+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 79. South southeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.350833333333334, 36.22833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 30.458333333333336, 19.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.5, 35.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.37166666666666653, 1.1283333333333334 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Drake Bulldogs at Valparaiso Beacons", "market": { "id": "401868256", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868256", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.901803+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.143933+00:00", "home_line": 8.5, "away_line": -8.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 55.5, "under_line": 55.5, "over_price": -104.0, "under_price": -119.0, "home_ml": 296.0, "away_ml": -400.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 8.5, "average_total": 55.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.38636363636363313, "combined": 54.52272727272727, "spread_buffer": 8.113636363636367, "total_difference": -0.9772727272727266 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.38636363636363313, "combined": 54.52272727272727, "spread_buffer": 8.113636363636367, "total_difference": -0.9772727272727266 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 3.7824056497597276, "combined": 52.531111521587334, "spread_buffer": 12.282405649759728, "total_difference": -2.9688884784126657 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 3.7824056497597276, "combined": 52.531111521587334, "spread_buffer": 12.282405649759728, "total_difference": -2.9688884784126657 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.17249999999999943, "combined": 56.52916666666667, "spread_buffer": 8.3275, "total_difference": 1.0291666666666686 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.17249999999999943, "combined": 56.52916666666667, "spread_buffer": 8.3275, "total_difference": 1.0291666666666686 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868256", "matchup": "Drake Bulldogs at Valparaiso Beacons", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Valparaiso Beacons", "line": 8.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868256", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.901803+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.143933+00:00", "home_line": 8.5, "away_line": -8.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 55.5, "under_line": 55.5, "over_price": -104.0, "under_price": -119.0, "home_ml": 296.0, "away_ml": -400.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 8.3275, "production_adjusted": 8.3275, "minimum_all_scenarios": 8.3275, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 27.06818181818182 ], "directional_buffer": 8.113636363636367, "scenario_minimum": 8.113636363636367 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.374352935913805, 28.156758585673533 ], "directional_buffer": 12.282405649759728, "scenario_minimum": 12.282405649759728 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 8.3275, "scenario_minimum": 8.3275 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 8.3275, "scenario_minimum": 8.3275 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 8.3275, "stressed_buffer": 5.327500000000001 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 8.3275, "stressed_buffer": 5.327500000000001 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.350833333333334, 36.22833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 16.377499999999998, "stressed_buffer": 13.377499999999998 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.350833333333334, 36.22833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.833333333333332, "pa": 39.083333333333336, "margin": -20.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767651", "401767652", "401767529", "401767653", "401767614", "401767604", "401767637", "401767641", "401767650", "401767632", "401767654", "401767647" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.2, "pa": 39.2, "margin": -21.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401872615", "401868284", "401868285", "401868164", "401868264" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 30.916666666666668, "pa": 20.5, "margin": 10.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767209", "401767089", "401767648", "401767645", "401767595", "401767605", "401767649", "401767650", "401767631", "401767624", "401767643", "401767515" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.666666666666664, "pa": 30.5, "margin": 2.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868279", "401867875", "401868280", "401868159", "401868281", "401868276" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.666666666666664, 35.0 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.35, 35.93333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.383333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 16.5, 42.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.5, 42.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868282", "matchup": "Stetson Hatters at St. Thomas Tommies", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "St. Thomas Tommies: QB Nick Peipert/Anthony Policare, RB Gabriel Abel/Joseph Koch/Mordecai Ford, WR Quentin Cobb-Butler/Pierce McCrary/Stefano Giovannelli, TE Luke Schuler; Stetson Hatters: QB Thomas Von Grote/Kael Alexander, RB Troy Flowers/Marvin Duffey Jr/Michael Dempsey, WR Landon Farco/Wyatt Rogers/Shawne Jones, TE Anthony Benzija/Gunner Chenier", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.96666666666667, 42.35 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 19.666666666666664, 35.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.35, 35.93333333333334 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -5.383333333333334, 6.883333333333334 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 53, "def_drives": 50, "off_points_proxy": 59, "def_points_proxy": 167, "off_plays": 368, "off_yards": 1795, "def_plays": 310, "def_yards": 2153, "early_plays": 253, "early_yards": 1203, "explosive_plays": 23, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868164", "401868264", "401868284", "401868285", "401872615" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.1132075471698113, "def_ppd": 3.34, "off_ypp": 4.877717391304348, "def_ypp": 6.945161290322581, "early_down_ypp": 4.75494071146245 }, "home": { "off_drives": 80, "def_drives": 78, "off_points_proxy": 183, "def_points_proxy": 173, "off_plays": 501, "off_yards": 3325, "def_plays": 525, "def_yards": 3217, "early_plays": 357, "early_yards": 2536, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867875", "401868159", "401868276", "401868279", "401868280", "401868281" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.2875, "def_ppd": 2.217948717948718, "off_ypp": 6.636726546906187, "def_ypp": 6.1276190476190475, "early_down_ypp": 7.103641456582633 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2900", "teamName": "St. Thomas Tommies", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868276", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "St. Thomas Tommies at Presbyterian Blue Hose", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Bailey Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clinton", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29325", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2506", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 55.0, "displayValue": "55" }, "team": { "id": "2506", "displayName": "Presbyterian Blue Hose" } }, { "id": "2900", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2900", "displayName": "St. Thomas Tommies" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.083, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tommiesports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "56", "teamName": "Stetson Hatters", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868264", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Marist Red Foxes at Stetson Hatters", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Spec Martin Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "DeLand", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32724", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "56", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "56", "displayName": "Stetson Hatters" } }, { "id": "2368", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2368", "displayName": "Marist Red Foxes" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gohatters.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Saint Paul. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Saint+Paul&state=MN&site=MPX&textField1=44.9477&textField2=-93.1037&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.640522+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 89. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 69. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868282", "matchup": "Stetson Hatters at St. Thomas Tommies", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Saint+Paul&state=MN&site=MPX&textField1=44.9477&textField2=-93.1037&e=1", "https://gohatters.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://tommiesports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868282", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868282", "date": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "5116", "fullName": "O'Shaughnessy Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Saint Paul", "state": "MN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "56", "away_name": "Stetson Hatters", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2900", "home_name": "St. Thomas Tommies", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.833333333333332, "pa": 39.083333333333336, "margin": -20.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767651", "401767652", "401767529", "401767653", "401767614", "401767604", "401767637", "401767641", "401767650", "401767632", "401767654", "401767647" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.2, "pa": 39.2, "margin": -21.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401872615", "401868284", "401868285", "401868164", "401868264" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 30.916666666666668, "pa": 20.5, "margin": 10.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767209", "401767089", "401767648", "401767645", "401767595", "401767605", "401767649", "401767650", "401767631", "401767624", "401767643", "401767515" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.666666666666664, "pa": 30.5, "margin": 2.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868279", "401867875", "401868280", "401868159", "401868281", "401868276" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.666666666666664, 35.0 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.35, 35.93333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.383333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0, 36.625 ], "home": [ 22.35, 62.35 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868282", "matchup": "Stetson Hatters at St. Thomas Tommies", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "venue": { "id": "5116", "guid": "204e3537-cbef-33f1-8bc5-cfadffd18f8e", "fullName": "O'Shaughnessy Stadium", "address": { "city": "Saint Paul", "state": "MN", "zipCode": "55105", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2900", "teamName": "St. Thomas Tommies", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868276", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "St. Thomas Tommies at Presbyterian Blue Hose", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Bailey Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clinton", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29325", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2506", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 55.0, "displayValue": "55" }, "team": { "id": "2506", "displayName": "Presbyterian Blue Hose" } }, { "id": "2900", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2900", "displayName": "St. Thomas Tommies" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.083, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tommiesports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "56", "teamName": "Stetson Hatters", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868264", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Marist Red Foxes at Stetson Hatters", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Spec Martin Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "DeLand", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32724", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "56", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "56", "displayName": "Stetson Hatters" } }, { "id": "2368", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2368", "displayName": "Marist Red Foxes" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gohatters.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Saint Paul. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2900", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#56" ], "finding": "St. Thomas Tommies: QB Nick Peipert/Anthony Policare, RB Gabriel Abel/Joseph Koch/Mordecai Ford, WR Quentin Cobb-Butler/Pierce McCrary/Stefano Giovannelli, TE Luke Schuler; Stetson Hatters: QB Thomas Von Grote/Kael Alexander, RB Troy Flowers/Marvin Duffey Jr/Michael Dempsey, WR Landon Farco/Wyatt Rogers/Shawne Jones, TE Anthony Benzija/Gunner Chenier" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2900", "teamName": "St. Thomas Tommies", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868276", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "St. Thomas Tommies at Presbyterian Blue Hose", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Bailey Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clinton", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29325", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2506", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 55.0, "displayValue": "55" }, "team": { "id": "2506", "displayName": "Presbyterian Blue Hose" } }, { "id": "2900", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2900", "displayName": "St. Thomas Tommies" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.083, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tommiesports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "56", "teamName": "Stetson Hatters", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868264", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Marist Red Foxes at Stetson Hatters", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Spec Martin Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "DeLand", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32724", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "56", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "56", "displayName": "Stetson Hatters" } }, { "id": "2368", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2368", "displayName": "Marist Red Foxes" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gohatters.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Saint Paul. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Saint+Paul&state=MN&site=MPX&textField1=44.9477&textField2=-93.1037&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.640522+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 89. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 69. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.96666666666667, 42.35 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 19.666666666666664, 35.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.35, 35.93333333333334 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -5.383333333333334, 6.883333333333334 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Saint+Paul&state=MN&site=MPX&textField1=44.9477&textField2=-93.1037&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Saint+Paul&state=MN&site=MPX&textField1=44.9477&textField2=-93.1037&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-05:00", "window": "Sunny, with a high near 89. 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No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401871473", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401871473", "date": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3749", "fullName": "Hunter Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Saint Charles", "state": "MO", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2546", "away_name": "Southeast Missouri State Redhawks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2815", "home_name": "Lindenwood Lions", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.577272727272728, 25.375 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.577272727272728, 25.375 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.577272727272728, 25.375 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.166666666666668, 30.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 19.4, 24.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 24.75, 27.0 ], "current_rates": [ 17.25, 32.5 ] } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.73591339553473, 29.131292372178528 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.73591339553473, 29.131292372178528 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.73591339553473, 29.131292372178528 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 29.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.5, 29.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 30.083333333333332, "margin": -6.916666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401761591", "401767216", "401767217", "401767218", "401767219", "401767220", "401767197", "401767221", "401767168", "401767206", "401767222", "401767215" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.4, "pa": 24.4, "margin": -5.0, "event_ids": [ "401867855", "401856779", "401867890", "401868133", "401871472" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.75, "pa": 27.0, "margin": -2.25, "event_ids": [ "401767209", "401761596", "401767161", "401767210", "401762827", "401767211", "401767212", "401767204", "401767213", "401767214", "401767200", "401767215" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 17.25, "pa": 32.5, "margin": -15.25, "event_ids": [ "401868169", "401866622", "401871046", "401866427" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.083333333333336, 27.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.95, 20.825 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.5583333333333336, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 25.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 25.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 30.083333333333332, "margin": -6.916666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401761591", "401767216", "401767217", "401767218", "401767219", "401767220", "401767197", "401767221", "401767168", "401767206", "401767222", "401767215" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.4, "pa": 24.4, "margin": -5.0, "event_ids": [ "401867855", "401856779", "401867890", "401868133", "401871472" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.75, "pa": 27.0, "margin": -2.25, "event_ids": [ "401767209", "401761596", "401767161", "401767210", "401762827", "401767211", "401767212", "401767204", "401767213", "401767214", "401767200", "401767215" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 17.25, "pa": 32.5, "margin": -15.25, "event_ids": [ "401868169", "401866622", "401871046", "401866427" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.083333333333336, 27.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.95, 20.825 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.5583333333333336, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 25.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 25.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401871473", "matchup": "Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Lindenwood Lions", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Lindenwood Lions: QB Pops Battle/Hoyt Gregory, RB Jared Rhodes/Noah Triplett/Robert Giaimo, WR Elijah Roy/Christopher Bennett Jr./Drew Krobath, TE Aiden Grote/Mac Busteed; Southeast Missouri State Redhawks: QB Braylen Ragland, RB Khyair Spain/Payton Brown/Tyrell Reed Jr., WR Jobe Bryant/Khylen Harris-Norman/Tristin Purnell, TE Clayton Leonard", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 26.075, 28.35833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.083333333333336, 27.416666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.95, 20.825 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.5583333333333336, 0.9416666666666664 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 64, "def_drives": 63, "off_points_proxy": 90, "def_points_proxy": 123, "off_plays": 447, "off_yards": 2414, "def_plays": 384, "def_yards": 2296, "early_plays": 313, "early_yards": 1191, "explosive_plays": 34, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856779", "401867855", "401867890", "401868133", "401871472" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.40625, "def_ppd": 1.9523809523809523, "off_ypp": 5.400447427293065, "def_ypp": 5.979166666666667, "early_down_ypp": 3.805111821086262 }, "home": { "off_drives": 42, "def_drives": 42, "off_points_proxy": 60, "def_points_proxy": 136, "off_plays": 320, "off_yards": 1696, "def_plays": 345, "def_yards": 2378, "early_plays": 213, "early_yards": 886, "explosive_plays": 26, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866427", "401866622", "401868169", "401871046" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 1.4285714285714286, "def_ppd": 3.238095238095238, "off_ypp": 5.3, "def_ypp": 6.892753623188406, "early_down_ypp": 4.15962441314554 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2815", "teamName": "Lindenwood Lions", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866427", "date": "2026-09-26T17:00Z", "name": "Lindenwood Lions at Eastern Michigan Eagles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Rynearson Stadium", "address": { "city": "Ypsilanti", "state": "MI", "zipCode": "48197", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2199", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 29.0, "displayValue": "29" }, "team": { "id": "2199", "displayName": "Eastern Michigan Eagles" } }, { "id": "2815", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2815", "displayName": "Lindenwood Lions" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://lindenwoodlions.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2546", "teamName": "Southeast Missouri State Redhawks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401871472", "date": "2026-09-26T23:00Z", "name": "West Florida Argonauts at Southeast Missouri State Redhawks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Houck Field", "address": { "city": "Cape Girardeau", "state": "MO", "zipCode": "63701", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2546", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 17.0, "displayValue": "17" }, "team": { "id": "2546", "displayName": "Southeast Missouri State Redhawks" } }, { "id": "110242", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "110242", "displayName": "West Florida Argonauts" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 13.792, "officialScheduleSource": "https://semoredhawks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Saint Charles. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Saint+Charles&state=MO&site=LSX&textField1=38.7906&textField2=-90.5164&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.773001+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 56. East wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401871473", "matchup": "Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Lindenwood Lions", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Saint+Charles&state=MO&site=LSX&textField1=38.7906&textField2=-90.5164&e=0", "https://lindenwoodlions.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://semoredhawks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401871473", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401871473", "date": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3749", "fullName": "Hunter Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Saint Charles", "state": "MO", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2546", "away_name": "Southeast Missouri State Redhawks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2815", "home_name": "Lindenwood Lions", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 30.083333333333332, "margin": -6.916666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401761591", "401767216", "401767217", "401767218", "401767219", "401767220", "401767197", "401767221", "401767168", "401767206", "401767222", "401767215" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.4, "pa": 24.4, "margin": -5.0, "event_ids": [ "401867855", "401856779", "401867890", "401868133", "401871472" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.75, "pa": 27.0, "margin": -2.25, "event_ids": [ "401767209", "401761596", "401767161", "401767210", "401762827", "401767211", "401767212", "401767204", "401767213", "401767214", "401767200", "401767215" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 17.25, "pa": 32.5, "margin": -15.25, "event_ids": [ "401868169", "401866622", "401871046", "401866427" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.083333333333336, 27.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.95, 20.825 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.5583333333333336, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], 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No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401871473", "matchup": "Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Lindenwood Lions", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 45.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871473", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.971564+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.207381+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": 100.0, "away_line_price": -125.0, "total": 45.5, "under_line": 45.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 121.0, "away_ml": -151.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 5.637499999999996, "production_adjusted": 5.637499999999996, "minimum_all_scenarios": 5.637499999999996, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.577272727272728, 25.375 ], "directional_buffer": 4.452272727272728, "scenario_minimum": 4.452272727272728 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.73591339553473, 29.131292372178528 ], "directional_buffer": 4.3672057677132585, "scenario_minimum": 4.3672057677132585 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "directional_buffer": 5.637499999999996, "scenario_minimum": 5.637499999999996 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "directional_buffer": 5.637499999999996, "scenario_minimum": 5.637499999999996 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "directional_buffer": 5.637499999999996, "stressed_buffer": 2.6374999999999957 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "directional_buffer": 5.637499999999996, "stressed_buffer": 2.6374999999999957 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 26.075, 28.35833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 8.93333333333333, "stressed_buffer": 5.93333333333333 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 26.075, 28.35833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.083333333333336, 27.416666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.95, 20.825 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.5583333333333336, 0.9416666666666664 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Saint+Charles&state=MO&site=LSX&textField1=38.7906&textField2=-90.5164&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-05:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "761846", "sport": "MLS", "identity": { "id": "761846", "date": "2026-10-10T18:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 13846, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLS", "venue": { "id": "1452", "fullName": "Soldier Field", "indoor": null, "address": { "city": "Chicago, Illinois", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "17606", "away_name": "New York City FC", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "182", "home_name": "Chicago Fire FC", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 3 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T18:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Soldier Field" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Increasing clouds, with a high near 79. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/chivsnyc-10-10-2026/clubs", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/" ], "other_review": { "trades": [ { "player": "Jason Shokalook", "position": "F", "date": "2026-09-02", "team": "Chicago Fire FC", "team_id": "182", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "Real Salt Lake", "counterparty_id": "4771", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "F - Jason Shokalook (9/2/26 - trade to Real Salt Lake)", "roster_identity": { "id": "314665", "name": "Jason Shokalook", "roster_team": "Real Salt Lake", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/4771/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/314665/stats?team=182&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-314665-182.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "182", "stats": { "STRT": "0", "FC": "1", "FA": "0", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "2", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "182", "stats": { "STRT": "0", "FC": "0", "FA": "0", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "1", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Josh Cohen", "Mbekezeli Mbokazi", "Jack Elliott", "Leonardo Barroso", "Jonathan Dean", "D'Avilla Dje Tah", "Anton Saletros", "Jonathan Bamba", "Philip Zinckernagel", "Maren Haile-Selassie", "Johan G\u00f3mez" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761660", "date": "2026-10-07T00:30Z", "name": "Vancouver Whitecaps at Chicago Fire FC" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761660", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "314665", "name": "Jason Shokalook", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "0", "post_trade_starts": "1", "post_last_match_role": "substitute/bench", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 38, "documented_new_team_starts": "1", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": "0", "post_trade_starts": "1", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. 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Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Finishing, shot creation and pressing starts", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.343762+00:00" } ], "references": { "away": { "teamId": "17606", "team": "New York City FC", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/17606/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761830", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.062161+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.610528+00:00", "event": { "id": "761830", "date": "2026-09-26T23:30Z", "name": "New York City FC at Atlanta United FC" }, "referenceXI": [ "Tomas Romero", "Raul Gustavo", "Thiago Martins", "Nico Cavallo", "James Sands", "Nicol\u00e1s Fern\u00e1ndez", "Andr\u00e9s Perea", "Jonathan Shore", "B\u00e9nie Traor\u00e9", "Hannes Wolf", "Agustin Ojeda" ], "formation": "4-2-3-1", "roster": [ { "id": "184786", "name": "Tomas Romero", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "saves": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "276051", "name": "Raul Gustavo", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 3.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "185792", "name": "Thiago Martins", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "400718", "name": "Nico Cavallo", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "258855", "name": "James Sands", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 3.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "108107", "name": "Nicol\u00e1s Fern\u00e1ndez", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Attacking Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 3.0, "foulsSuffered": 4.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 3.0 } }, { "id": "259199", "name": "Andr\u00e9s Perea", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 2.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "358680", "name": "Jonathan Shore", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "312850", "name": "B\u00e9nie Traor\u00e9", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { 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"subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "328865", "name": "Max Murray", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "379908", "name": "Malachi Jones", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "301472", "name": "Cooper Flax", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "187273", "name": "Matt Miazga", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "254450", "name": "Kevin O'Toole", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "419228", "name": "Kevin Pierre", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "310827", "name": "Alonso Mart\u00ednez", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "220434", "name": "Greg Ranjitsingh", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." }, "home": { "teamId": "182", "team": "Chicago Fire FC", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/182/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761660", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:24.115840+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:24.967260+00:00", "event": { "id": "761660", "date": "2026-10-07T00:30Z", "name": "Vancouver Whitecaps at Chicago Fire FC" }, "referenceXI": [ "Josh Cohen", "Mbekezeli Mbokazi", "Jack Elliott", "Leonardo Barroso", "Jonathan Dean", "D'Avilla Dje Tah", "Anton Saletros", "Jonathan Bamba", "Philip Zinckernagel", "Maren Haile-Selassie", "Johan G\u00f3mez" ], "formation": "4-4-2", "roster": [ { "id": "254291", "name": "Josh Cohen", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "saves": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "400594", "name": "Mbekezeli Mbokazi", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "233813", "name": "Jack Elliott", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "399516", "name": "Leonardo Barroso", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "293671", "name": "Jonathan Dean", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "335605", "name": "D'Avilla Dje Tah", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "193105", "name": "Anton Saletros", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "210538", "name": "Jonathan Bamba", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "186466", "name": "Philip Zinckernagel", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 5.0 } }, { "id": "259951", "name": "Maren Haile-Selassie", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 2.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 5.0 } }, { "id": "364592", "name": "Johan G\u00f3mez", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 2.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 3.0 } }, { "id": "365549", "name": "Puso Dithejane", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "362678", "name": "David Poreba", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "330207", "name": "Sergio Oregel", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "160971", "name": "Mauricio Pineda", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "245068", "name": "Andrew Gutman", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "125824", "name": "Robert Lewandowski", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "313969", "name": "Jeff Gal", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "254300", "name": "Samual Rogers", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "218646", "name": "Andreas Hanche-Olsen", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "New York City FC at Chicago Fire FC", "market": { "id": "761846", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761846", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.093581+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.330521+00:00", "home_line": -0.5, "away_line": 0.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -120.0, "total": 3.5, "under_line": 3.5, "over_price": 130.0, "under_price": -170.0, "home_ml": -105.0, "away_ml": 240.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "draw_ml": 270.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "moneyline_scope": "Regulation three-way including draw" } ], "average_home_line": -0.5, "average_total": 3.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "401868095", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868095", "date": "2026-10-10T19:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3942", "fullName": "Stewart Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Ogden", "state": "UT", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "70", "away_name": "Idaho Vandals", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2692", "home_name": "Weber State Wildcats", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 32.28219696969697 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 32.28219696969697 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 29.28219696969697 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2692", "side": "home", "player": "Marvin Session", "replacement": "Tate Kjar / Noah Kjar and remaining receivers", "condition": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00", "base_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 32.28219696969697 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 29.28219696969697 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.43181818181818, 29.28219696969697 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.166666666666668, 26.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 27.8, 40.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 23.083333333333332, 38.333333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 37.5, 37.666666666666664 ] } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.5, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 35.54927689695486 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 35.54927689695486 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 32.54927689695486 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2692", "side": "home", "player": "Marvin Session", "replacement": "Tate Kjar / Noah Kjar and remaining receivers", "condition": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00", "base_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 35.54927689695486 ], "isolated_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 32.54927689695486 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 28.320267531058295, 32.54927689695486 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2692", "side": "home", "player": "Marvin Session", "replacement": "Tate Kjar / Noah Kjar and remaining receivers", "condition": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00", "base_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "isolated_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.166666666666668, "pa": 26.416666666666668, "margin": -1.25, "event_ids": [ "401752947", "401767089", "401767090", "401760375", "401767091", "401767122", "401767092", "401767093", "401767094", "401767095", "401767096", "401767088" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 40.4, "margin": -12.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401868073", "401856768", "401868093", "401868051", "401868094" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.083333333333332, "pa": 38.333333333333336, "margin": -15.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401761590", "401756879", "401767159", "401767160", "401767158", "401767133", "401767128", "401767065", "401767102", "401767110", "401767087", "401767118" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.5, "pa": 37.666666666666664, "margin": -0.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868129", "401868158", "401856785", "401868168", "401868155", "401868077" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.75, 24.75 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.733333333333334, 38.95 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.156666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 33.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 33.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2692", "side": "home", "player": "Marvin Session", "replacement": "Tate Kjar / Noah Kjar and remaining receivers", "condition": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00", "base_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "isolated_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.166666666666668, "pa": 26.416666666666668, "margin": -1.25, "event_ids": [ "401752947", "401767089", "401767090", "401760375", "401767091", "401767122", "401767092", "401767093", "401767094", "401767095", "401767096", "401767088" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 40.4, "margin": -12.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401868073", "401856768", "401868093", "401868051", "401868094" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.083333333333332, "pa": 38.333333333333336, "margin": -15.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401761590", "401756879", "401767159", "401767160", "401767158", "401767133", "401767128", "401767065", "401767102", "401767110", "401767087", "401767118" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.5, "pa": 37.666666666666664, "margin": -0.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868129", "401868158", "401856785", "401868168", "401868155", "401868077" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.75, 24.75 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.733333333333334, 38.95 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.156666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 33.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 33.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "Oct3 absent-Session result already enters form/base. No repeated empirical penalty; human -3 explicitly additional scenario only." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868095", "matchup": "Idaho Vandals at Weber State Wildcats", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Weber State Wildcats", "names": [ "Marvin Session" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00" } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Weber State Wildcats: QB Nate Dahle/Devin Brown, RB Seth Rigtrup/Omar Shah/Spencer Ferguson, WR Noah Kjar/Tate Kjar/Marvin Session, TE Kolby Howard; Idaho Vandals: QB Joshua Wood/Israel Carter, RB Hayden Kincheloe/Damonte Bias/Ferrari Miller, WR Tony Harste/Ryan Jezioro/Daveon Superales, TE no primary receiver established", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 32.89, 33.193333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.75, 24.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.733333333333334, 38.95 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.156666666666667, 1.343333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 136, "def_points_proxy": 195, "off_plays": 412, "off_yards": 2592, "def_plays": 435, "def_yards": 3177, "early_plays": 312, "early_yards": 1699, "explosive_plays": 38, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856768", "401868051", "401868073", "401868093", "401868094" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.3448275862068964, "def_ppd": 3.3620689655172415, "off_ypp": 6.29126213592233, "def_ypp": 7.303448275862069, "early_down_ypp": 5.44551282051282 }, "home": { "off_drives": 79, "def_drives": 83, "off_points_proxy": 211, "def_points_proxy": 238, "off_plays": 534, "off_yards": 3493, "def_plays": 589, "def_yards": 3919, "early_plays": 399, "early_yards": 2464, "explosive_plays": 59, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856785", "401868077", "401868129", "401868155", "401868158", "401868168" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.670886075949367, "def_ppd": 2.8674698795180724, "off_ypp": 6.5411985018726595, "def_ypp": 6.65365025466893, "early_down_ypp": 6.175438596491228 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2692", "teamName": "Weber State Wildcats", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868077", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Weber State Wildcats at Cal Poly Mustangs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 6, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final/2OT", "shortDetail": "Final/2OT", "altDetail": "2OT" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Luis Obispo", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "93405", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "13", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "13", "displayName": "Cal Poly Mustangs" } }, { "id": "2692", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2692", "displayName": "Weber State Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.792, "officialScheduleSource": "https://weberstatesports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "70", "teamName": "Idaho Vandals", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868094", "date": "2026-10-03T02:30Z", "name": "Montana State Bobcats at Idaho Vandals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T02:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Kibbie Dome", "address": { "city": "Moscow", "state": "ID", "zipCode": "83844", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "70", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "70", "displayName": "Idaho Vandals" } }, { "id": "147", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "147", "displayName": "Montana State Bobcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.688, "officialScheduleSource": "https://govandals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Ogden. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ogden&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=41.2231&textField2=-111.973&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.774002+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 67. South southeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Saturday A chance of showers before 9am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 9am and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. South wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Low around 55. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "Oct3 absent-Session result already enters form/base. No repeated empirical penalty; human -3 explicitly additional scenario only." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868095", "matchup": "Idaho Vandals at Weber State Wildcats", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Weber State Wildcats", "names": [ "Marvin Session" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00" } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ogden&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=41.2231&textField2=-111.973&e=1", "https://govandals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00", "https://weberstatesports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868095", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868095", "date": "2026-10-10T19:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3942", "fullName": "Stewart Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Ogden", "state": "UT", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "70", "away_name": "Idaho Vandals", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2692", "home_name": "Weber State Wildcats", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.166666666666668, "pa": 26.416666666666668, "margin": -1.25, "event_ids": [ "401752947", "401767089", "401767090", "401760375", "401767091", "401767122", "401767092", "401767093", "401767094", "401767095", "401767096", "401767088" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 40.4, "margin": -12.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401868073", "401856768", "401868093", "401868051", "401868094" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.083333333333332, "pa": 38.333333333333336, "margin": -15.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401761590", "401756879", "401767159", "401767160", "401767158", "401767133", "401767128", "401767065", "401767102", "401767110", "401767087", "401767118" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.5, "pa": 37.666666666666664, "margin": -0.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868129", "401868158", "401856785", "401868168", "401868155", "401868077" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.75, 24.75 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.733333333333334, 38.95 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.156666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 12.398333333333333, 52.39833333333333 ], "home": [ 13.193333333333335, 53.193333333333335 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868095", "matchup": "Idaho Vandals at Weber State Wildcats", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T19:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3942", "guid": "6ed829b5-b6f4-3101-af1a-346df268ecf0", "fullName": "Stewart Stadium", "address": { "city": "Ogden", "state": "UT", "zipCode": "84408", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2692", "teamName": "Weber State Wildcats", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868077", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Weber State Wildcats at Cal Poly Mustangs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 6, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final/2OT", "shortDetail": "Final/2OT", "altDetail": "2OT" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Luis Obispo", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "93405", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "13", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "13", "displayName": "Cal Poly Mustangs" } }, { "id": "2692", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2692", "displayName": "Weber State Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.792, "officialScheduleSource": "https://weberstatesports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "70", "teamName": "Idaho Vandals", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868094", "date": "2026-10-03T02:30Z", "name": "Montana State Bobcats at Idaho Vandals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T02:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Kibbie Dome", "address": { "city": "Moscow", "state": "ID", "zipCode": "83844", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "70", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "70", "displayName": "Idaho Vandals" } }, { "id": "147", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "147", "displayName": "Montana State Bobcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.688, "officialScheduleSource": "https://govandals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Ogden. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2692", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#70" ], "finding": "Weber State Wildcats: QB Nate Dahle/Devin Brown, RB Seth Rigtrup/Omar Shah/Spencer Ferguson, WR Noah Kjar/Tate Kjar/Marvin Session, TE Kolby Howard; Idaho Vandals: QB Joshua Wood/Israel Carter, RB Hayden Kincheloe/Damonte Bias/Ferrari Miller, WR Tony Harste/Ryan Jezioro/Daveon Superales, TE no primary receiver established" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2692", "teamName": "Weber State Wildcats", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868077", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Weber State Wildcats at Cal Poly Mustangs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 6, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final/2OT", "shortDetail": "Final/2OT", "altDetail": "2OT" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Luis Obispo", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "93405", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "13", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "13", "displayName": "Cal Poly Mustangs" } }, { "id": "2692", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2692", "displayName": "Weber State Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.792, "officialScheduleSource": "https://weberstatesports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "70", "teamName": "Idaho Vandals", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868094", "date": "2026-10-03T02:30Z", "name": "Montana State Bobcats at Idaho Vandals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T02:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Kibbie Dome", "address": { "city": "Moscow", "state": "ID", "zipCode": "83844", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "70", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "70", "displayName": "Idaho Vandals" } }, { "id": "147", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "147", "displayName": "Montana State Bobcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.688, "officialScheduleSource": "https://govandals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Ogden. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ogden&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=41.2231&textField2=-111.973&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.774002+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 67. South southeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Saturday A chance of showers before 9am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 9am and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. South wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Low around 55. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "CONDITIONAL AVAILABILITY: Marvin Session: CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [ { "eventId": "401868095", "teamId": "2692", "teamName": "Weber State Wildcats", "incumbent": "Marvin Session", "replacement": "Tate Kjar / Noah Kjar and remaining receivers", "role": "WR", "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00", "sourceDate": "2026-10-06", "status": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "trigger": "Session is a material established receiver (2025 team receiving-yard leader, four TD in 2026) and missed Oct3; continued absence/limitation warrants -3 branch.", "history": { "Marvin Session": { "2024": "Weber State: 9 games,13 catches,127 yards,TD; starts/targets/routes unavailable.", "2025": "Weber State:12 games,32 catches,415 yards,TD; starts/targets/routes unavailable.", "2026": "Weber State:13 catches,273 yards,4 TD; Oct3 absent." }, "Noah Kjar": { "2024": "Weber State:11 games,16 catches,200 yards; 7 KR for250 yards and TD.", "2025": "Weber State:3 games before season-ending injury,3 catches,48 yards,TD.", "2026": "Weber State:38 catches,621 yards,8 TD; Oct3 five catches/79 yards." }, "Tate Kjar": { "2024": "Utah State:redshirt, no college production.", "2025": "Utah State:two appearances; receiving opportunities unavailable in retained feed.", "2026": "Weber State:8 catches,129 yards,2 TD; Oct3 five catches/89 yards/2 TD." } }, "familiarity": "Tate transferred from Utah State before 2026, not an in-season trade. Noah and Tate are head coach Eric Kjar sons; Tate played for him at Corner Canyon. Session has been at Weber since 2022. Existing system/practice familiarity supported without numerical bonus.", "opportunityChange": "Oct3 brothers had10 catches/168 yards/2 TD with Session absent. Exact share of Session targets to each and routes/verified drops unreported; receiver redistribution cannot be multiplied into several -3 deductions.", "offensiveLine": "No separately verified current offensive-line absence or point conversion established.", "opponentContext": "Idaho last played Friday Oct2, an extra calendar recovery day relative Weber Oct3 double-overtime road win; physical load qualitative.", "doubleCounting": "Oct3 absent-Session result already enters form/base. No repeated empirical penalty; human -3 explicitly additional scenario only.", "statisticalReplacementAdjustment": null, "statisticalReplacementForecast": "Registered baseline proxy; player conversion unestimated.", "branches": [ { "condition": "Session fully available", "humanDeduction": 0 }, { "condition": "Session remains absent/materially limited, receiving redistributed", "humanDeduction": -3 } ], "appliedConservativeSensitivity": -3, "overlayVersion": "football-replacement-human-v1", "reviewedUTC": "2026-10-10T10:13:05.267848+00:00", "additionalIndependentAdjustment": 0, "opponentPointAdjustment": 0, "jointScenario": "Only one qualifying covered-role scenario identified for this team. Joint scenario equals isolated -3 branch; no stacked QB/WR or injury-headcount deductions.", "gateOutcome": "Pre-price: retain PASS_PENDING_GATES. Parent must evaluate base and both availability branches in each of the four configurations after immutable freeze; any selection failing applicable branch becomes PASS, never opposite-side promotion.", "scoreExpression": "adjusted team points = retained registered baseline - 3.0 in qualifying branch; available branch = baseline. Statistical replacement-specific conversion is unestimated, not proven zero.", "baseAndAdjustedScores": "Parent-owned model means pending; attach by eventId and teamId without changing registered arithmetic.", "advancedUncertainty": [ "routes/targets and verified drops unavailable", "exact game-day snap allocation unconfirmed", "no calibrated player-to-score conversion", "protection-call experience and full practice participation unavailable" ] } ] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 32.89, 33.193333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.75, 24.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.733333333333334, 38.95 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.156666666666667, 1.343333333333333 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Idaho Vandals at Weber State Wildcats", "market": { "id": "401868095", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868095", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.116651+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.340107+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -103.0, "away_line_price": -121.0, "total": 69.5, "under_line": 69.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 112.0, "away_ml": -139.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 69.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; 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release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.7950000000000017, "combined": 65.59166666666667, "spread_buffer": 2.2950000000000017, "total_difference": -3.9083333333333314 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.7950000000000017, "combined": 65.59166666666667, "spread_buffer": 2.2950000000000017, "total_difference": -3.9083333333333314 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868095", "matchup": "Idaho Vandals at Weber State Wildcats", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Weber State Wildcats", "line": 1.5, "price": -103.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868095", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.116651+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.340107+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -103.0, "away_line_price": -121.0, "total": 69.5, "under_line": 69.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 112.0, "away_ml": -139.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 2.2950000000000017, "production_adjusted": 2.2950000000000017, "minimum_all_scenarios": -1.1966666666666583, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 32.28219696969697 ], "directional_buffer": 2.350378787878789, "scenario_minimum": -0.649621212121211 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 35.54927689695486 ], "directional_buffer": 8.729009365896562, "scenario_minimum": 5.729009365896562 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2950000000000017, "scenario_minimum": -0.7049999999999983 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2950000000000017, "scenario_minimum": -0.7049999999999983 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.88999999999999, 30.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": -1.1966666666666583, "stressed_buffer": -4.196666666666658 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": -0.7049999999999983, "stressed_buffer": -3.7049999999999983 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2950000000000017, "stressed_buffer": -0.7049999999999983 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.88999999999999, 30.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": -1.1966666666666583, "stressed_buffer": -4.196666666666658 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.88999999999999, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 1.8033333333333417, "stressed_buffer": -1.1966666666666583 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 32.89, 33.193333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.75, 24.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.733333333333334, 38.95 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.156666666666667, 1.343333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Weber State Wildcats", "names": [ "Marvin Session" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00" }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ogden&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=41.2231&textField2=-111.973&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ogden&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=41.2231&textField2=-111.973&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-06:00", "window": "A chance of showers before 9am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 9am and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. 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No repeated empirical penalty; human -3 explicitly additional scenario only." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868095", "matchup": "Idaho Vandals at Weber State Wildcats", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 69.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868095", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.116651+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.340107+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -103.0, "away_line_price": -121.0, "total": 69.5, "under_line": 69.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 112.0, "away_ml": -139.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 3.9083333333333314, "production_adjusted": 3.9083333333333314, "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.4166666666666714, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 32.28219696969697 ], "directional_buffer": 5.785984848484851, "scenario_minimum": 5.785984848484851 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 35.54927689695486 ], "directional_buffer": 5.630455571986843, "scenario_minimum": 5.630455571986843 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 3.9083333333333314, "scenario_minimum": 3.9083333333333314 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 3.9083333333333314, "scenario_minimum": 3.9083333333333314 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.88999999999999, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 3.4166666666666714, "stressed_buffer": 0.4166666666666714 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 6.908333333333331, "stressed_buffer": 3.9083333333333314 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 3.9083333333333314, "stressed_buffer": 0.9083333333333314 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.88999999999999, 30.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 6.416666666666671, "stressed_buffer": 3.4166666666666714 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.88999999999999, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 3.4166666666666714, "stressed_buffer": 0.4166666666666714 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 32.89, 33.193333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.75, 24.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.733333333333334, 38.95 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.156666666666667, 1.343333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Weber State Wildcats", "names": [ "Marvin Session" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00" }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ogden&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=41.2231&textField2=-111.973&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ogden&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=41.2231&textField2=-111.973&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-06:00", "window": "A chance of showers before 9am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 9am and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. South wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.", "maxForecastGustMph": 30, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "Oct3 absent-Session result already enters form/base. No repeated empirical penalty; human -3 explicitly additional scenario only." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.7950000000000017, "combined": 65.59166666666667, "spread_buffer": 2.2950000000000017, "total_difference": -3.9083333333333314 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.7950000000000017, "combined": 65.59166666666667, "spread_buffer": 2.2950000000000017, "total_difference": -3.9083333333333314 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868095", "matchup": "Idaho Vandals at Weber State Wildcats", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Weber State Wildcats", "line": 1.5, "price": -103.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868095", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.116651+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.340107+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -103.0, "away_line_price": -121.0, "total": 69.5, "under_line": 69.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 112.0, "away_ml": -139.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 2.2950000000000017, "production_adjusted": 2.2950000000000017, "minimum_all_scenarios": -1.1966666666666583, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 32.28219696969697 ], "directional_buffer": 2.350378787878789, "scenario_minimum": -0.649621212121211 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 35.54927689695486 ], "directional_buffer": 8.729009365896562, "scenario_minimum": 5.729009365896562 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2950000000000017, "scenario_minimum": -0.7049999999999983 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2950000000000017, "scenario_minimum": -0.7049999999999983 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.88999999999999, 30.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": -1.1966666666666583, "stressed_buffer": -4.196666666666658 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": -0.7049999999999983, "stressed_buffer": -3.7049999999999983 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2950000000000017, "stressed_buffer": -0.7049999999999983 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.88999999999999, 30.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": -1.1966666666666583, "stressed_buffer": -4.196666666666658 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.88999999999999, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 1.8033333333333417, "stressed_buffer": -1.1966666666666583 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 32.89, 33.193333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.75, 24.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.733333333333334, 38.95 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.156666666666667, 1.343333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Weber State Wildcats", "names": [ "Marvin Session" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00" }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ogden&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=41.2231&textField2=-111.973&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ogden&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=41.2231&textField2=-111.973&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-06:00", "window": "A chance of showers before 9am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 9am and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. South wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.", "maxForecastGustMph": 30, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "Oct3 absent-Session result already enters form/base. No repeated empirical penalty; human -3 explicitly additional scenario only." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868095", "matchup": "Idaho Vandals at Weber State Wildcats", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 69.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868095", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.116651+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.340107+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -103.0, "away_line_price": -121.0, "total": 69.5, "under_line": 69.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 112.0, "away_ml": -139.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 3.9083333333333314, "production_adjusted": 3.9083333333333314, "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.4166666666666714, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 32.28219696969697 ], "directional_buffer": 5.785984848484851, "scenario_minimum": 5.785984848484851 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 35.54927689695486 ], "directional_buffer": 5.630455571986843, "scenario_minimum": 5.630455571986843 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 3.9083333333333314, "scenario_minimum": 3.9083333333333314 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 3.9083333333333314, "scenario_minimum": 3.9083333333333314 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.88999999999999, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 3.4166666666666714, "stressed_buffer": 0.4166666666666714 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 6.908333333333331, "stressed_buffer": 3.9083333333333314 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 3.9083333333333314, "stressed_buffer": 0.9083333333333314 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.88999999999999, 30.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 6.416666666666671, "stressed_buffer": 3.4166666666666714 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.88999999999999, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 3.4166666666666714, "stressed_buffer": 0.4166666666666714 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 32.89, 33.193333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.75, 24.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.733333333333334, 38.95 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.156666666666667, 1.343333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Weber State Wildcats", "names": [ "Marvin Session" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00" }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ogden&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=41.2231&textField2=-111.973&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ogden&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=41.2231&textField2=-111.973&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-06:00", "window": "A chance of showers before 9am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 9am and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. South wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.", "maxForecastGustMph": 30, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "Oct3 absent-Session result already enters form/base. No repeated empirical penalty; human -3 explicitly additional scenario only." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401868360", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868360", "date": "2026-10-10T19:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3771", "fullName": "Spinks-Casem Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Lorman", "state": "MS", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "124386", "away_name": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2016", "home_name": "Alcorn State Braves", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.660714285714285, 41.70535714285714 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.660714285714285, 41.70535714285714 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.660714285714285, 41.70535714285714 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 2, "current_games": 1, "current_weight": 0.14285714285714285, "prior_rates": [ 10.0, 44.0 ], "current_rates": [ 0.0, 88.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 24.25, 23.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 39.0, 41.333333333333336 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 41.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 41.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.532102671551254, 38.8478786750167 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.532102671551254, 38.8478786750167 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.532102671551254, 38.8478786750167 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 39.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 39.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "conditional_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 2, "pf": 10.0, "pa": 44.0, "margin": -34.0, "event_ids": [ "401767468", "401777301" ] }, "2026": { "games": 1, "pf": 0.0, "pa": 88.0, "margin": -88.0, "event_ids": [ "401869150" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.25, "pa": 23.166666666666668, "margin": 1.0833333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401767369", "401767309", "401752701", "401767370", "401767371", "401767372", "401767373", "401767374", "401767375", "401767376", "401767377", "401767378" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 39.0, "pa": 41.333333333333336, "margin": -2.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401896385", "401868356", "401868355", "401868151", "401868358", "401868359" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 16.583333333333336, 34.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 63.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -10, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 1, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 67.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 67.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "conditional_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 2, "pf": 10.0, "pa": 44.0, "margin": -34.0, "event_ids": [ "401767468", "401777301" ] }, "2026": { "games": 1, "pf": 0.0, "pa": 88.0, "margin": -88.0, "event_ids": [ "401869150" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.25, "pa": 23.166666666666668, "margin": 1.0833333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401767369", "401767309", "401752701", "401767370", "401767371", "401767372", "401767373", "401767374", "401767375", "401767376", "401767377", "401767378" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 39.0, "pa": 41.333333333333336, "margin": -2.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401896385", "401868356", "401868355", "401868151", "401868358", "401868359" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 16.583333333333336, 34.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 63.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -10, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 1, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 67.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 67.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868360", "matchup": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Alcorn State Braves", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Alcorn State Braves: QB Jaylon Tolbert, RB Fredrick Robertson/Ernest Temple/Carl McDonald Jr., WR Armon Wright/Jamarr Ebron/Tyree Kelly, TE no primary receiver established; Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes: QB Charles Coney/Jayden Young, RB Darryl Searcy Jr./Terrelle Weathers/Tavion Rupert, WR Cornell Russell/Taylor Poole/Leon Elloie, TE no primary receiver established", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. Current .50 influence cap violation: PASS required.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 1, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 3.666666666666668, 67.3125 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 16.583333333333336, 34.125 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 63.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -17, 18.5 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 17, "def_drives": 14, "off_points_proxy": 16, "def_points_proxy": 66, "off_plays": 97, "off_yards": 488, "def_plays": 63, "def_yards": 554, "early_plays": 63, "early_yards": 294, "explosive_plays": 8, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401869150" ], "games": 1, "off_ppd": 0.9411764705882353, "def_ppd": 4.714285714285714, "off_ypp": 5.030927835051546, "def_ypp": 8.793650793650794, "early_down_ypp": 4.666666666666667 }, "home": { "off_drives": 81, "def_drives": 78, "off_points_proxy": 239, "def_points_proxy": 235, "off_plays": 574, "off_yards": 3736, "def_plays": 549, "def_yards": 3968, "early_plays": 422, "early_yards": 2644, "explosive_plays": 60, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868151", "401868355", "401868356", "401868358", "401868359", "401896385" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.950617283950617, "def_ppd": 3.0128205128205128, "off_ypp": 6.508710801393728, "def_ypp": 7.2276867030965395, "early_down_ypp": 6.265402843601896 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2016", "teamName": "Alcorn State Braves", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868359", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Alcorn State Braves at Grambling Tigers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Eddie G. Robinson Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Grambling", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "71245", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2755", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 63.0, "displayValue": "63" }, "team": { "id": "2755", "displayName": "Grambling Tigers" } }, { "id": "2016", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 59.0, "displayValue": "59" }, "team": { "id": "2016", "displayName": "Alcorn State Braves" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://alcornsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "124386", "teamName": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401869150", "date": "2026-09-12T23:00Z", "name": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Houston Christian Huskies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-12T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Husky Stadium (TX)", "address": { "city": "Houston", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "77074", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2277", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 88.0, "displayValue": "88" }, "team": { "id": "2277", "displayName": "Houston Christian Huskies" } }, { "id": "124386", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "124386", "displayName": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": null, "officialScheduleSource": "https://abcbuffaloes.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Lorman. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated.", "restCorrection": "ESPN history incomplete for non-DI Arkansas Baptist; cannot infer 27.8 rest days from last retained result. Actual rest unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.987294+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 85. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 61. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868360", "matchup": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Alcorn State Braves", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://abcbuffaloes.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://alcornsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0" ], "tu": { "id": "401868360", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868360", "date": "2026-10-10T19:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3771", "fullName": "Spinks-Casem Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Lorman", "state": "MS", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "124386", "away_name": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2016", "home_name": "Alcorn State Braves", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 2, "pf": 10.0, "pa": 44.0, "margin": -34.0, "event_ids": [ "401767468", "401777301" ] }, "2026": { "games": 1, "pf": 0.0, "pa": 88.0, "margin": -88.0, "event_ids": [ "401869150" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.25, "pa": 23.166666666666668, "margin": 1.0833333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401767369", "401767309", "401752701", "401767370", "401767371", "401767372", "401767373", "401767374", "401767375", "401767376", "401767377", "401767378" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 39.0, "pa": 41.333333333333336, "margin": -2.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401896385", "401868356", "401868355", "401868151", "401868358", "401868359" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 16.583333333333336, 34.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 63.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -10, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 1, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0, 27 ], "home": [ 43.3125, 91.3125 ], "team_allowance": 24, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868360", "matchup": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Alcorn State Braves", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T19:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3771", "guid": "2e049c8d-a4b1-3f43-8c71-280e2d90b86c", "fullName": "Spinks-Casem Stadium", "address": { "city": "Lorman", "state": "MS", "zipCode": "39096", "country": "USA" }, "grass": true, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2016", "teamName": "Alcorn State Braves", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868359", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Alcorn State Braves at Grambling Tigers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Eddie G. Robinson Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Grambling", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "71245", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2755", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 63.0, "displayValue": "63" }, "team": { "id": "2755", "displayName": "Grambling Tigers" } }, { "id": "2016", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 59.0, "displayValue": "59" }, "team": { "id": "2016", "displayName": "Alcorn State Braves" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://alcornsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "124386", "teamName": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401869150", "date": "2026-09-12T23:00Z", "name": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Houston Christian Huskies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-12T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Husky Stadium (TX)", "address": { "city": "Houston", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "77074", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2277", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 88.0, "displayValue": "88" }, "team": { "id": "2277", "displayName": "Houston Christian Huskies" } }, { "id": "124386", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "124386", "displayName": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": null, "officialScheduleSource": "https://abcbuffaloes.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Lorman. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated.", "restCorrection": "ESPN history incomplete for non-DI Arkansas Baptist; cannot infer 27.8 rest days from last retained result. Actual rest unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2016", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#124386" ], "finding": "Alcorn State Braves: QB Jaylon Tolbert, RB Fredrick Robertson/Ernest Temple/Carl McDonald Jr., WR Armon Wright/Jamarr Ebron/Tyree Kelly, TE no primary receiver established; Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes: QB Charles Coney/Jayden Young, RB Darryl Searcy Jr./Terrelle Weathers/Tavion Rupert, WR Cornell Russell/Taylor Poole/Leon Elloie, TE no primary receiver established" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2016", "teamName": "Alcorn State Braves", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868359", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Alcorn State Braves at Grambling Tigers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Eddie G. Robinson Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Grambling", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "71245", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2755", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 63.0, "displayValue": "63" }, "team": { "id": "2755", "displayName": "Grambling Tigers" } }, { "id": "2016", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 59.0, "displayValue": "59" }, "team": { "id": "2016", "displayName": "Alcorn State Braves" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://alcornsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "124386", "teamName": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401869150", "date": "2026-09-12T23:00Z", "name": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Houston Christian Huskies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-12T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Husky Stadium (TX)", "address": { "city": "Houston", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "77074", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2277", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 88.0, "displayValue": "88" }, "team": { "id": "2277", "displayName": "Houston Christian Huskies" } }, { "id": "124386", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "124386", "displayName": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": null, "officialScheduleSource": "https://abcbuffaloes.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Lorman. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated.", "restCorrection": "ESPN history incomplete for non-DI Arkansas Baptist; cannot infer 27.8 rest days from last retained result. Actual rest unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.987294+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 85. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 61. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.; NON-DI OPPONENT sample: preserve engine eligibility and missing-history gates.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 3.666666666666668, 67.3125 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 16.583333333333336, 34.125 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 63.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -17, 18.5 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Alcorn State Braves", "market": { "id": "401868360", "quotes": [], "average_home_line": null, "average_total": null, "spread_quote_count": 0, "total_quote_count": 0, "average_status": "UNAVAILABLE", "complete_required_market": false }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 22.044642857142854, "combined": 61.36607142857142, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": 22.044642857142854, "combined": 61.36607142857142, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 16.315776003465448, "combined": 61.37998134656796, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": 16.315776003465448, "combined": 61.37998134656796, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 64.3125, "combined": 70.3125, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": 64.3125, "combined": 70.3125, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868360", "matchup": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Alcorn State Braves", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0" } ], "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:00:00-05:00", "window": "Sunny, with a high near 85. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 30, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868360", "matchup": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Alcorn State Braves", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0" } ], "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:00:00-05:00", "window": "Sunny, with a high near 85. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 30, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 64.3125, "combined": 70.3125, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": 64.3125, "combined": 70.3125, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868360", "matchup": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Alcorn State Braves", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0" } ], "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:00:00-05:00", "window": "Sunny, with a high near 85. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 30, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868360", "matchup": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Alcorn State Braves", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0" } ], "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:00:00-05:00", "window": "Sunny, with a high near 85. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 30, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "401868382", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868382", "date": "2026-10-10T19:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "4417", "fullName": "Five Star Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Macon", "state": "GA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2717", "away_name": "Western Carolina Catamounts", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2382", "home_name": "Mercer Bears", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 38.583333333333336, 33.5 ], "current_rates": [ 34.5, 33.833333333333336 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 36.166666666666664, 25.5 ], "current_rates": [ 32.833333333333336, 17.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28.0, 35.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 35.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 39.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 39.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 38.583333333333336, "pa": 33.5, "margin": 5.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767201", "401754620", "401767150", "401767580", "401767142", "401767592", "401767567", "401767584", "401767534", "401767578", "401767563", "401767591" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 34.5, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": 0.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868139", "401917058", "401856786", "401868275", "401868346", "401868391" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.166666666666664, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 10.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767572", "401767573", "401767574", "401767558", "401767575", "401767576", "401767577", "401767570", "401767578", "401767556", "401752774", "401836218" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.833333333333336, "pa": 17.0, "margin": 15.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401874042", "401868274", "401868374", "401858228", "401868052", "401868381" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.04166666666667, 34.83333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.75, 33.333333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.075, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.0, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 38.583333333333336, "pa": 33.5, "margin": 5.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767201", "401754620", "401767150", "401767580", "401767142", "401767592", "401767567", "401767584", "401767534", "401767578", "401767563", "401767591" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 34.5, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": 0.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868139", "401917058", "401856786", "401868275", "401868346", "401868391" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.166666666666664, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 10.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767572", "401767573", "401767574", "401767558", "401767575", "401767576", "401767577", "401767570", "401767578", "401767556", "401752774", "401836218" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.833333333333336, "pa": 17.0, "margin": 15.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401874042", "401868274", "401868374", "401858228", "401868052", "401868381" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.04166666666667, 34.83333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.75, 33.333333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.075, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.0, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868382", "matchup": "Western Carolina Catamounts at Mercer Bears", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Mercer Bears: QB Jaylen King/JP Pickles, RB Devon Caldwell/Zahmari Palode-Gary/Micah Bell, WR Brayden Smith/Eric Rasheed/Travion Solomon, TE Kaden Hanson/Jackson Kostmayer; Western Carolina Catamounts: QB Lex Thomas/Patrick Harding, RB Josh Perry/Marlin Cochran/Anthony Benjamin, WR AJ Colombo/Michael Rossin/Santana Carlos, TE no primary receiver established", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 29.966666666666672, 37.65833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 32.04166666666667, 34.83333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.75, 33.333333333333336 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -2.075, 3.575 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 77, "def_drives": 74, "off_points_proxy": 208, "def_points_proxy": 204, "off_plays": 560, "off_yards": 3413, "def_plays": 513, "def_yards": 3324, "early_plays": 407, "early_yards": 2333, "explosive_plays": 46, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856786", "401868139", "401868275", "401868346", "401868391", "401917058" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.7012987012987013, "def_ppd": 2.7567567567567566, "off_ypp": 6.0946428571428575, "def_ypp": 6.47953216374269, "early_down_ypp": 5.732186732186732 }, "home": { "off_drives": 76, "def_drives": 77, "off_points_proxy": 192, "def_points_proxy": 102, "off_plays": 488, "off_yards": 3622, "def_plays": 509, "def_yards": 2596, "early_plays": 341, "early_yards": 2313, "explosive_plays": 58, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858228", "401868052", "401868274", "401868374", "401868381", "401874042" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.526315789473684, "def_ppd": 1.3246753246753247, "off_ypp": 7.422131147540983, "def_ypp": 5.100196463654224, "early_down_ypp": 6.782991202346041 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2382", "teamName": "Mercer Bears", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868381", "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "name": "Mercer Bears at VMI Keydets", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Foster Stadium", "address": { "city": "Lexington", "state": "VA", "zipCode": "24450", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2678", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2678", "displayName": "VMI Keydets" } }, { "id": "2382", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 54.0, "displayValue": "54" }, "team": { "id": "2382", "displayName": "Mercer Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.062, "officialScheduleSource": "https://mercerbears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2717", "teamName": "Western Carolina Catamounts", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868391", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Western Carolina Catamounts", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "E.J. Whitmire Stadium", "address": { "city": "Cullowhee", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "28723", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2717", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "2717", "displayName": "Western Carolina Catamounts" } }, { "id": "2635", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "2635", "displayName": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://catamountsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Macon. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Macon&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=32.8368&textField2=-83.6568&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.034039+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 80. Southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southeast wind around 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868382", "matchup": "Western Carolina Catamounts at Mercer Bears", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://catamountsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Macon&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=32.8368&textField2=-83.6568&e=0", "https://mercerbears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868382", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868382", "date": "2026-10-10T19:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "4417", "fullName": "Five Star Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Macon", "state": "GA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2717", "away_name": "Western Carolina Catamounts", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2382", "home_name": "Mercer Bears", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 38.583333333333336, "pa": 33.5, "margin": 5.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767201", "401754620", "401767150", "401767580", "401767142", "401767592", "401767567", "401767584", "401767534", "401767578", "401767563", "401767591" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 34.5, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": 0.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868139", "401917058", "401856786", "401868275", "401868346", "401868391" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.166666666666664, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 10.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767572", "401767573", "401767574", "401767558", "401767575", "401767576", "401767577", "401767570", "401767578", "401767556", "401752774", "401836218" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.833333333333336, "pa": 17.0, "margin": 15.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401874042", "401868274", "401868374", "401858228", "401868052", "401868381" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.04166666666667, 34.83333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.75, 33.333333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.075, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 6.820833333333336, 46.82083333333334 ], "home": [ 17.65833333333333, 57.65833333333333 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868382", "matchup": "Western Carolina Catamounts at Mercer Bears", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T19:00Z", "venue": { "id": "4417", "guid": "97440b00-31bc-31fe-85a5-39fe19e2e9d9", "fullName": "Five Star Stadium", "address": { "city": "Macon", "state": "GA", "zipCode": "80229", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2382", "teamName": "Mercer Bears", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868381", "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "name": "Mercer Bears at VMI Keydets", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Foster Stadium", "address": { "city": "Lexington", "state": "VA", "zipCode": "24450", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2678", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2678", "displayName": "VMI Keydets" } }, { "id": "2382", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 54.0, "displayValue": "54" }, "team": { "id": "2382", "displayName": "Mercer Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.062, "officialScheduleSource": "https://mercerbears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2717", "teamName": "Western Carolina Catamounts", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868391", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Western Carolina Catamounts", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "E.J. Whitmire Stadium", "address": { "city": "Cullowhee", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "28723", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2717", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "2717", "displayName": "Western Carolina Catamounts" } }, { "id": "2635", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "2635", "displayName": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://catamountsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Macon. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2382", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2717" ], "finding": "Mercer Bears: QB Jaylen King/JP Pickles, RB Devon Caldwell/Zahmari Palode-Gary/Micah Bell, WR Brayden Smith/Eric Rasheed/Travion Solomon, TE Kaden Hanson/Jackson Kostmayer; Western Carolina Catamounts: QB Lex Thomas/Patrick Harding, RB Josh Perry/Marlin Cochran/Anthony Benjamin, WR AJ Colombo/Michael Rossin/Santana Carlos, TE no primary receiver established" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2382", "teamName": "Mercer Bears", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868381", "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "name": "Mercer Bears at VMI Keydets", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Foster Stadium", "address": { "city": "Lexington", "state": "VA", "zipCode": "24450", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2678", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2678", "displayName": "VMI Keydets" } }, { "id": "2382", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 54.0, "displayValue": "54" }, "team": { "id": "2382", "displayName": "Mercer Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.062, "officialScheduleSource": "https://mercerbears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2717", "teamName": "Western Carolina Catamounts", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868391", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Western Carolina Catamounts", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "E.J. Whitmire Stadium", "address": { "city": "Cullowhee", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "28723", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2717", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "2717", "displayName": "Western Carolina Catamounts" } }, { "id": "2635", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "2635", "displayName": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://catamountsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Macon. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Macon&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=32.8368&textField2=-83.6568&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.034039+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 80. Southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southeast wind around 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 29.966666666666672, 37.65833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 32.04166666666667, 34.83333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.75, 33.333333333333336 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -2.075, 3.575 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Western Carolina Catamounts at Mercer Bears", "market": { "id": "401868382", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868382", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.152035+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.394891+00:00", "home_line": -6.0, "away_line": 6.0, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -119.0, "under_price": -104.0, "home_ml": -233.0, "away_ml": 183.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -6.0, "average_total": 57.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 6.6875, "combined": 62.97916666666667, "spread_buffer": 0.6875, "total_difference": 5.479166666666671 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.6875, "combined": 62.97916666666667, "spread_buffer": 0.6875, "total_difference": 5.479166666666671 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 13.022616850297815, "combined": 65.15641646419263, "spread_buffer": 7.0226168502978155, "total_difference": 7.656416464192631 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 13.022616850297815, "combined": 65.15641646419263, "spread_buffer": 7.0226168502978155, "total_difference": 7.656416464192631 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 10.837499999999995, "combined": 64.47916666666667, "spread_buffer": 4.837499999999995, "total_difference": 6.979166666666671 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 10.837499999999995, "combined": 64.47916666666667, "spread_buffer": 4.837499999999995, "total_difference": 6.979166666666671 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868382", "matchup": "Western Carolina Catamounts at Mercer Bears", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Mercer Bears", "line": -6.0, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868382", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.152035+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.394891+00:00", "home_line": -6.0, "away_line": 6.0, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -119.0, "under_price": -104.0, "home_ml": -233.0, "away_ml": 183.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 4.837499999999995, "production_adjusted": 4.837499999999995, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.6916666666666593, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6875, "scenario_minimum": 0.6875 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "directional_buffer": 7.0226168502978155, "scenario_minimum": 7.0226168502978155 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 4.837499999999995, "scenario_minimum": 4.837499999999995 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 4.837499999999995, "scenario_minimum": 4.837499999999995 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.966666666666672, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6916666666666593, "stressed_buffer": -1.3083333333333407 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 4.837499999999995, "stressed_buffer": 1.837499999999995 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.966666666666672, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6916666666666593, "stressed_buffer": -1.3083333333333407 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 29.966666666666672, 37.65833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 32.04166666666667, 34.83333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.75, 33.333333333333336 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -2.075, 3.575 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Macon&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=32.8368&textField2=-83.6568&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Macon&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=32.8368&textField2=-83.6568&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 80. Southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southeast wind around 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 35, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868382", "matchup": "Western Carolina Catamounts at Mercer Bears", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 57.5, "price": -119.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868382", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.152035+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.394891+00:00", "home_line": -6.0, "away_line": 6.0, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -119.0, "under_price": -104.0, "home_ml": -233.0, "away_ml": 183.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 6.979166666666671, "production_adjusted": 6.979166666666671, "minimum_all_scenarios": 6.979166666666671, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.479166666666671, "scenario_minimum": 5.479166666666671 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "directional_buffer": 7.656416464192631, "scenario_minimum": 7.656416464192631 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 6.979166666666671, "scenario_minimum": 6.979166666666671 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 6.979166666666671, "scenario_minimum": 6.979166666666671 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 6.979166666666671, "stressed_buffer": 3.9791666666666714 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 6.979166666666671, "stressed_buffer": 3.9791666666666714 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.966666666666672, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 10.125, "stressed_buffer": 7.125 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 29.966666666666672, 37.65833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 32.04166666666667, 34.83333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.75, 33.333333333333336 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -2.075, 3.575 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Macon&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=32.8368&textField2=-83.6568&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Macon&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=32.8368&textField2=-83.6568&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 80. Southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southeast wind around 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 35, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 10.837499999999995, "combined": 64.47916666666667, "spread_buffer": 4.837499999999995, "total_difference": 6.979166666666671 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 10.837499999999995, "combined": 64.47916666666667, "spread_buffer": 4.837499999999995, "total_difference": 6.979166666666671 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868382", "matchup": "Western Carolina Catamounts at Mercer Bears", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Mercer Bears", "line": -6.0, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868382", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.152035+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.394891+00:00", "home_line": -6.0, "away_line": 6.0, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -119.0, "under_price": -104.0, "home_ml": -233.0, "away_ml": 183.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 4.837499999999995, "production_adjusted": 4.837499999999995, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.6916666666666593, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6875, "scenario_minimum": 0.6875 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "directional_buffer": 7.0226168502978155, "scenario_minimum": 7.0226168502978155 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 4.837499999999995, "scenario_minimum": 4.837499999999995 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 4.837499999999995, "scenario_minimum": 4.837499999999995 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.966666666666672, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6916666666666593, "stressed_buffer": -1.3083333333333407 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 4.837499999999995, "stressed_buffer": 1.837499999999995 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.966666666666672, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6916666666666593, "stressed_buffer": -1.3083333333333407 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 29.966666666666672, 37.65833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 32.04166666666667, 34.83333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.75, 33.333333333333336 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -2.075, 3.575 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Macon&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=32.8368&textField2=-83.6568&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Macon&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=32.8368&textField2=-83.6568&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 80. Southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southeast wind around 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 35, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868382", "matchup": "Western Carolina Catamounts at Mercer Bears", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 57.5, "price": -119.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868382", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.152035+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.394891+00:00", "home_line": -6.0, "away_line": 6.0, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -119.0, "under_price": -104.0, "home_ml": -233.0, "away_ml": 183.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 6.979166666666671, "production_adjusted": 6.979166666666671, "minimum_all_scenarios": 6.979166666666671, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.479166666666671, "scenario_minimum": 5.479166666666671 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "directional_buffer": 7.656416464192631, "scenario_minimum": 7.656416464192631 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 6.979166666666671, "scenario_minimum": 6.979166666666671 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 6.979166666666671, "scenario_minimum": 6.979166666666671 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 6.979166666666671, "stressed_buffer": 3.9791666666666714 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 6.979166666666671, "stressed_buffer": 3.9791666666666714 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.966666666666672, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 10.125, "stressed_buffer": 7.125 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 29.966666666666672, 37.65833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 32.04166666666667, 34.83333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.75, 33.333333333333336 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -2.075, 3.575 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Macon&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=32.8368&textField2=-83.6568&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Macon&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=32.8368&textField2=-83.6568&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 80. Southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southeast wind around 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 35, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401868966", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868966", "date": "2026-10-10T19:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3631", "fullName": "Shell Energy Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Houston", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2400", "away_name": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2640", "home_name": "Texas Southern Tigers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.95523415977961, 31.27238292011019 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.95523415977961, 31.27238292011019 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.95523415977961, 31.27238292011019 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 18.333333333333332, 38.666666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 15.0, 34.166666666666664 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 11, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.818181818181817, 23.363636363636363 ], "current_rates": [ 23.2, 48.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25.0, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.0, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.28004319504608, 35.01133899577395 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.28004319504608, 35.01133899577395 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.28004319504608, 35.01133899577395 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 35.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 35.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.333333333333332, "pa": 38.666666666666664, "margin": -20.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767425", "401767304", "401767426", "401767427", "401767313", "401767429", "401767374", "401767391", "401767424", "401767366", "401767430", "401767428" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 15.0, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -19.166666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868962", "401866411", "401868963", "401868964", "401868327", "401868965" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 25.818181818181817, "pa": 23.363636363636363, "margin": 2.4545454545454533, "event_ids": [ "401767431", "401754530", "401767458", "401767427", "401767381", "401767418", "401767459", "401767375", "401767365", "401767457", "401767358" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.2, "pa": 48.4, "margin": -25.2, "event_ids": [ "401867977", "401868967", "401864505", "401868358", "401862790" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.848484848484848, 32.24242424242424 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.7, 28.68333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6754545454545455, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 33.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 33.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.333333333333332, "pa": 38.666666666666664, "margin": -20.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767425", "401767304", "401767426", "401767427", "401767313", "401767429", "401767374", "401767391", "401767424", "401767366", "401767430", "401767428" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 15.0, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -19.166666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868962", "401866411", "401868963", "401868964", "401868327", "401868965" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 25.818181818181817, "pa": 23.363636363636363, "margin": 2.4545454545454533, "event_ids": [ "401767431", "401754530", "401767458", "401767427", "401767381", "401767418", "401767459", "401767375", "401767365", "401767457", "401767358" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.2, "pa": 48.4, "margin": -25.2, "event_ids": [ "401867977", "401868967", "401864505", "401868358", "401862790" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.848484848484848, 32.24242424242424 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.7, 28.68333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6754545454545455, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 33.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 33.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868966", "matchup": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Texas Southern Tigers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Texas Southern Tigers: QB Cam'Ron McCoy/Nelson Peterson Jr., RB Athean Renfro Jr./Jacob Washington/David Kency, WR Roriyon Richardson/Daveon Walker/Fatu Mukuba, TE Xavier Phipps; Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils: QB Josh Brown/Jordon Davis, RB Norman Taylor/Carter James/Dezmond Ray, WR Caleb Brownlow/Mekhi Penix/Nicholas Buggs, TE Jaylen King", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.024545454545454, 33.638333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.848484848484848, 32.24242424242424 ], "currentMatchup": [ 31.7, 28.68333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.6754545454545455, 3.1754545454545458 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 78, "def_drives": 81, "off_points_proxy": 85, "def_points_proxy": 203, "off_plays": 448, "off_yards": 2431, "def_plays": 510, "def_yards": 2854, "early_plays": 303, "early_yards": 1539, "explosive_plays": 38, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866411", "401868327", "401868962", "401868963", "401868964", "401868965" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.0897435897435896, "def_ppd": 2.506172839506173, "off_ypp": 5.426339285714286, "def_ypp": 5.596078431372549, "early_down_ypp": 5.079207920792079 }, "home": { "off_drives": 66, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 116, "def_points_proxy": 224, "off_plays": 464, "off_yards": 2824, "def_plays": 393, "def_yards": 2789, "early_plays": 331, "early_yards": 1912, "explosive_plays": 46, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862790", "401864505", "401867977", "401868358", "401868967" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.7575757575757576, "def_ppd": 3.6129032258064515, "off_ypp": 6.086206896551724, "def_ypp": 7.096692111959287, "early_down_ypp": 5.77643504531722 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2640", "teamName": "Texas Southern Tigers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401862790", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Texas Southern Tigers at Florida Atlantic Owls", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Flagler Credit Union Stadium", "address": { "city": "Boca Raton", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "33431", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2226", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 66.0, "displayValue": "66" }, "team": { "id": "2226", "displayName": "Florida Atlantic Owls" } }, { "id": "2640", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2640", "displayName": "Texas Southern Tigers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tsusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2400", "teamName": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868965", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Prairie View A&M Panthers at Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Rice-Totten Stadium", "address": { "city": "Itta Bena", "state": "MS", "zipCode": "38941", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2400", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2400", "displayName": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils" } }, { "id": "2504", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "2504", "displayName": "Prairie View A&M Panthers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://mvsusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Houston. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Houston&state=TX&site=HGX&textField1=29.7687&textField2=-95.3867&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.044621+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 90. East wind around 5 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 70. South wind around 5 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868966", "matchup": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Texas Southern Tigers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Houston&state=TX&site=HGX&textField1=29.7687&textField2=-95.3867&e=1", "https://mvsusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://tsusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868966", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868966", "date": "2026-10-10T19:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3631", "fullName": "Shell Energy Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Houston", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2400", "away_name": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2640", "home_name": "Texas Southern Tigers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.333333333333332, "pa": 38.666666666666664, "margin": -20.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767425", "401767304", "401767426", "401767427", "401767313", "401767429", "401767374", "401767391", "401767424", "401767366", "401767430", "401767428" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 15.0, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -19.166666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868962", "401866411", "401868963", "401868964", "401868327", "401868965" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 25.818181818181817, "pa": 23.363636363636363, "margin": 2.4545454545454533, "event_ids": [ "401767431", "401754530", "401767458", "401767427", "401767381", "401767418", "401767459", "401767375", "401767365", "401767457", "401767358" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.2, "pa": 48.4, "margin": -25.2, "event_ids": [ "401867977", "401868967", "401864505", "401868358", "401862790" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.848484848484848, 32.24242424242424 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.7, 28.68333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6754545454545455, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 4.598787878787878, 44.598787878787874 ], "home": [ 13.638333333333328, 53.63833333333333 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868966", "matchup": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Texas Southern Tigers", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T19:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3631", "guid": "1e7b5112-ef61-3437-b780-ea5c523d35b7", "fullName": "Shell Energy Stadium", "address": { "city": "Houston", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "77003", "country": "USA" }, "grass": true, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2640", "teamName": "Texas Southern Tigers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401862790", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Texas Southern Tigers at Florida Atlantic Owls", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Flagler Credit Union Stadium", "address": { "city": "Boca Raton", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "33431", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2226", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 66.0, "displayValue": "66" }, "team": { "id": "2226", "displayName": "Florida Atlantic Owls" } }, { "id": "2640", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2640", "displayName": "Texas Southern Tigers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tsusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2400", "teamName": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868965", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Prairie View A&M Panthers at Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Rice-Totten Stadium", "address": { "city": "Itta Bena", "state": "MS", "zipCode": "38941", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2400", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2400", "displayName": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils" } }, { "id": "2504", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "2504", "displayName": "Prairie View A&M Panthers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://mvsusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Houston. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2640", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2400" ], "finding": "Texas Southern Tigers: QB Cam'Ron McCoy/Nelson Peterson Jr., RB Athean Renfro Jr./Jacob Washington/David Kency, WR Roriyon Richardson/Daveon Walker/Fatu Mukuba, TE Xavier Phipps; Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils: QB Josh Brown/Jordon Davis, RB Norman Taylor/Carter James/Dezmond Ray, WR Caleb Brownlow/Mekhi Penix/Nicholas Buggs, TE Jaylen King" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2640", "teamName": "Texas Southern Tigers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401862790", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Texas Southern Tigers at Florida Atlantic Owls", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Flagler Credit Union Stadium", "address": { "city": "Boca Raton", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "33431", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2226", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 66.0, "displayValue": "66" }, "team": { "id": "2226", "displayName": "Florida Atlantic Owls" } }, { "id": "2640", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2640", "displayName": "Texas Southern Tigers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tsusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2400", "teamName": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868965", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Prairie View A&M Panthers at Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Rice-Totten Stadium", "address": { "city": "Itta Bena", "state": "MS", "zipCode": "38941", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2400", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2400", "displayName": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils" } }, { "id": "2504", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "2504", "displayName": "Prairie View A&M Panthers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://mvsusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Houston. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Houston&state=TX&site=HGX&textField1=29.7687&textField2=-95.3867&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.044621+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 90. East wind around 5 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 70. South wind around 5 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.024545454545454, 33.638333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.848484848484848, 32.24242424242424 ], "currentMatchup": [ 31.7, 28.68333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.6754545454545455, 3.1754545454545458 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Texas Southern Tigers", "market": { "id": "401868966", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868966", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.211381+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.433102+00:00", "home_line": -14.0, "away_line": 14.0, "home_line_price": -107.0, "away_line_price": -116.0, "total": 56.5, "under_line": 56.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -610.0, "away_ml": 416.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -14.0, "average_total": 56.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 6.3171487603305785, "combined": 56.2276170798898, "spread_buffer": -7.6828512396694215, "total_difference": -0.2723829201102035 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.3171487603305785, "combined": 56.2276170798898, "spread_buffer": -7.6828512396694215, "total_difference": -0.2723829201102035 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 13.731295800727867, "combined": 56.29138219082003, "spread_buffer": -0.2687041992721326, "total_difference": -0.20861780917996953 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 13.731295800727867, "combined": 56.29138219082003, "spread_buffer": -0.2687041992721326, "total_difference": -0.20861780917996953 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 9.03954545454545, "combined": 58.23712121212121, "spread_buffer": -4.9604545454545494, "total_difference": 1.7371212121212096 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 9.03954545454545, "combined": 58.23712121212121, "spread_buffer": -4.9604545454545494, "total_difference": 1.7371212121212096 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868966", "matchup": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Texas Southern Tigers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils", "line": 14.0, "price": -116.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868966", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.211381+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.433102+00:00", "home_line": -14.0, "away_line": 14.0, "home_line_price": -107.0, "away_line_price": -116.0, "total": 56.5, "under_line": 56.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -610.0, "away_ml": 416.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 4.9604545454545494, "production_adjusted": 4.9604545454545494, "minimum_all_scenarios": 4.9604545454545494, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.95523415977961, 31.27238292011019 ], "directional_buffer": 7.6828512396694215, "scenario_minimum": 7.6828512396694215 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.28004319504608, 35.01133899577395 ], "directional_buffer": 0.2687041992721326, "scenario_minimum": 0.2687041992721326 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 4.9604545454545494, "scenario_minimum": 4.9604545454545494 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 4.9604545454545494, "scenario_minimum": 4.9604545454545494 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 4.9604545454545494, "stressed_buffer": 1.9604545454545494 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 4.9604545454545494, "stressed_buffer": 1.9604545454545494 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.024545454545457, 33.63833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 10.386212121212115, "stressed_buffer": 7.386212121212115 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.024545454545454, 33.638333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Oklahoma Sooners", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Xavier Robinson", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Xavier Robinson" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401856717", "matchup": "Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma Sooners", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Oklahoma Sooners", "names": [ "Trell Harris" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. 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Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Texas Longhorns: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Harris is second WR by current receiving yards, 6/104; loss redistributes targets toward Sategna and primary receiving TE Beers (18/255). Robinson 13 carries is a secondary committee risk: retain isolated conditional-role -3 sensitivity but no unsupported automatic joint penalty. Current offensive-line outs/doubtful status increase protection uncertainty without extra coefficients.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 24.320833333333333, 21.950000000000003 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 21.75, 23.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.625, 17.625 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.1333333333333329, -1.1333333333333329 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 45, "def_drives": 46, "off_points_proxy": 126, "def_points_proxy": 46, "off_plays": 358, "off_yards": 1955, "def_plays": 347, "def_yards": 1750, "early_plays": 252, "early_yards": 1229, "explosive_plays": 21, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856667", "401856682", "401856693", "401856704" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.8, "def_ppd": 1.0, "off_ypp": 5.460893854748603, "def_ypp": 5.043227665706052, "early_down_ypp": 4.876984126984127 }, "home": { "off_drives": 47, "def_drives": 48, "off_points_proxy": 82, "def_points_proxy": 57, "off_plays": 316, "off_yards": 1871, "def_plays": 297, "def_yards": 1446, "early_plays": 227, "early_yards": 1132, "explosive_plays": 29, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856664", "401856679", "401856690", "401856700" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 1.7446808510638299, "def_ppd": 1.1875, "off_ypp": 5.920886075949367, "def_ypp": 4.8686868686868685, "early_down_ypp": 4.986784140969163 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Clear, with a low around 68. South southeast wind around 5 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dallas&state=TX&site=FWD&textField1=32.7942&textField2=-96.7652&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Oklahoma Sooners", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Xavier Robinson", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Xavier Robinson" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856717", "matchup": "Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma Sooners", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Oklahoma Sooners", "names": [ "Trell Harris" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. 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0, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 6.320833333333333, 42.32083333333333 ], "home": [ 1.220833333333335, 37.22083333333333 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401856717", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856717", "teamId": "251", "team": "Texas Longhorns", "side": "away", "opponent": "Oklahoma Sooners", "conferenceReportKey": "Texas", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4870906", "name": "Arch Manning", "position": "QB", "workload": "73/115, 862 YDS, 7 TD, 3 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"name": "Derrek Cooper", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/athletes/5203606/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5218633", "name": "Ryan Wingo", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 239 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/athletes/5218633/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079376", "name": "Cam Coleman", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 208 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/athletes/5079376/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079613", "name": "Emmett Mosley V", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 173 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/athletes/5079613/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5141757", "name": "Emaree Winston", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 70 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/athletes/5141757/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4921318", "name": "Spencer Shannon", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 24 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/athletes/4921318/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Kaliq Lockett", "id": "5141524", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, -3 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Texas Longhorns: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.9, 20.9 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.9, 20.9 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.9, 20.9 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.9, 20.9 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.56898152794137, 19.644795217298633 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.56898152794137, 19.644795217298633 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.56898152794137, 19.644795217298633 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.56898152794137, 19.644795217298633 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/251/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Lockett one catch versus Wingo19/Coleman12/Mosley12; reserve output, no main-role deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856717", "teamId": "201", "team": "Oklahoma Sooners", "side": "home", "opponent": "Texas Longhorns", "conferenceReportKey": "Oklahoma", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4915980", "name": "John Mateer", "position": "QB", "workload": "72/109, 883 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/4915980/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5224237", "name": "Whitt Newbauer", "position": "QB", "workload": "1/1, 6 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/5224237/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5079298", "name": "Lloyd Avant", "position": "RB", "workload": "42 CAR, 164 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/5079298/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5122554", "name": "Xavier Robinson", "position": "RB", "workload": "13 CAR, 50 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/5122554/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5159029", "name": "Jonathan Hatton Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "14 CAR, 43 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/5159029/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5080703", "name": "Isaiah Sategna III", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 267 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/5080703/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4912130", "name": "Trell Harris", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/4912130/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079556", "name": "Parker Livingstone", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 51 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/5079556/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4907786", "name": "Rocky Beers", "position": "TE", "workload": "18 REC, 255 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/4907786/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4878109", "name": "Hayden Hansen", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/4878109/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Trell Harris", "id": "4912130", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "6 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Xavier Robinson", "id": "5122554", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "13 CAR, 50 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 18 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Trynae Washington", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Jack Van Dorselaer", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Harris is second WR by current receiving yards, 6/104; loss redistributes targets toward Sategna and primary receiving TE Beers (18/255). Robinson 13 carries is a secondary committee risk: retain isolated conditional-role -3 sensitivity but no unsupported automatic joint penalty. Current offensive-line outs/doubtful status increase protection uncertainty without extra coefficients.", "confirmed": [ "Trell Harris" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Trell Harris", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 22.9, 17.9 ], "Primary": [ 23.56898152794137, 16.644795217298633 ], "TightenUpON": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Harris is second WR by current receiving yards, 6/104; loss redistributes targets toward Sategna and primary receiving TE Beers (18/255). Robinson 13 carries is a secondary committee risk: retain isolated conditional-role -3 sensitivity but no unsupported automatic joint penalty. Current offensive-line outs/doubtful status increase protection uncertainty without extra coefficients.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.9, 20.9 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.9, 20.9 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.9, 17.9 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.9, 17.9 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.56898152794137, 19.644795217298633 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.56898152794137, 19.644795217298633 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.56898152794137, 16.644795217298633 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.56898152794137, 16.644795217298633 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "4912130", "name": "Trell Harris", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/205", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "258", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 15, "receivingYards": 221, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4912130/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "258", "status": "available", "games": 13, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 59, "receivingYards": 847, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4912130/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "201", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 6, "receivingYards": 104, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4912130/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "258" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5080703", "name": "Isaiah Sategna III", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/211", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "8", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 15, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 15, "receptions": 37, "receivingYards": 491, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5080703/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "201", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 24, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6, "receptions": 65, "receivingYards": 948, "receivingTD": 7, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5080703/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "201", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 17, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.300000190734863, "receptions": 20, "receivingYards": 267, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5080703/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "8", "201" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079556", "name": "Parker Livingstone", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/214", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "251", "status": "available", "games": 0, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079556/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "251", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 4, "passingTD": 1, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 4, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 26, "receivingYards": 491, "receivingTD": 6, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079556/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "201", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 6, "receivingYards": 51, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079556/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "251" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4907786", "name": "Rocky Beers", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/212", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2229", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 18, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4907786/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "36", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 31, "receivingYards": 388, "receivingTD": 7, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4907786/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "201", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 18, "receivingYards": 255, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4907786/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2229", "36" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [ "Xavier Robinson" ], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Xavier Robinson", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Xavier Robinson" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/201/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [ { "name": "Xavier Robinson", "id": "5122554", "status": "out", "reason": "13 carries versus Avant42 and Hatton14; secondary committee member. Retain if material ongoing workload confirmed; independent rushing pathway can combine with Harris receiver loss.", "condition": "Only if covered/main-role workload is confirmed; OUT is verified but main-role eligibility is conditional", "incumbentHistoryRef": "player-histories.json#/players/206", "candidateReplacements": [ { "id": "5079298", "name": "Lloyd Avant", "position": "RB", "workload": "42 CAR, 164 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/5079298/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/210" }, { "id": "5159029", "name": "Jonathan Hatton Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "14 CAR, 43 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/5159029/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/781" } ], "statisticalPointEffect": null, "isolatedHumanDeduction": -3, "jointWithConfirmedDeduction": -6, "overlap": "Rushing workload independent of named receiver loss; do not count receptions separately.", "scores": { "Classic": { "isolated": [ 22.9, 17.9 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 22.9, 14.899999999999999 ] }, "Primary": { "isolated": [ 23.56898152794137, 16.644795217298633 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 23.56898152794137, 13.644795217298633 ] }, "TightenUpON": { "isolated": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 24.320833333333333, 13.220833333333335 ] }, "TightenUpOFF": { "isolated": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 24.320833333333333, 13.220833333333335 ] } } } ] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.9, 20.9 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.9, 17.9 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.9, 17.9 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.56898152794137, 19.644795217298633 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.56898152794137, 16.644795217298633 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.56898152794137, 16.644795217298633 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 24.320833333333333, 21.950000000000003 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 21.75, 23.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.625, 17.625 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.1333333333333329, -1.1333333333333329 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma Sooners", "market": { "id": "401856717", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856717", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.211381+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.439451+00:00", "home_line": 7.5, "away_line": -7.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 39.5, "under_line": 39.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 250.0, "away_ml": -310.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 7.5, "average_total": 39.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -2.0, "combined": 43.8, "spread_buffer": 5.5, "total_difference": 4.299999999999997 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -5.0, "combined": 40.8, "spread_buffer": 2.5, "total_difference": 1.2999999999999972 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -3.924186310642739, "combined": 43.213776745240004, "spread_buffer": 3.575813689357261, "total_difference": 3.713776745240004 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -6.924186310642739, "combined": 40.213776745240004, "spread_buffer": 0.5758136893572612, "total_difference": 0.7137767452400041 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -5.099999999999998, "combined": 43.54166666666667, "spread_buffer": 2.400000000000002, "total_difference": 4.041666666666671 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -8.099999999999998, "combined": 40.54166666666667, "spread_buffer": -0.5999999999999979, "total_difference": 1.0416666666666714 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401856717", "matchup": "Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma Sooners", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Texas Longhorns", "line": -7.5, "price": -105.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856717", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.211381+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.439451+00:00", "home_line": 7.5, "away_line": -7.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 39.5, "under_line": 39.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 250.0, "away_ml": -310.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": -2.400000000000002, "production_adjusted": 0.5999999999999979, "minimum_all_scenarios": -5.129166666666666, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.9, 17.9 ], "directional_buffer": -2.5, "scenario_minimum": -5.5 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.56898152794137, 16.644795217298633 ], "directional_buffer": -0.5758136893572612, "scenario_minimum": -3.575813689357261 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 0.5999999999999979, "scenario_minimum": -2.400000000000002 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 0.5999999999999979, "scenario_minimum": -2.400000000000002 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 24.320833333333333, 21.95 ], "directional_buffer": -5.129166666666666, "stressed_buffer": -8.129166666666666 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 0.5999999999999979, "stressed_buffer": -2.400000000000002 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "directional_buffer": -2.400000000000002, "stressed_buffer": -5.400000000000002 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 24.320833333333333, 18.95 ], "directional_buffer": -2.1291666666666664, "stressed_buffer": -5.129166666666666 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 24.320833333333333, 21.95 ], "directional_buffer": -5.129166666666666, "stressed_buffer": -8.129166666666666 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 24.320833333333333, 21.950000000000003 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 21.75, 23.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.625, 17.625 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.1333333333333329, -1.1333333333333329 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Oklahoma Sooners", "names": [ "Trell Harris" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Oklahoma Sooners", "names": [ "Xavier Robinson" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dallas&state=TX&site=FWD&textField1=32.7942&textField2=-96.7652&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:30:00-05:00", "window": "Sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Oklahoma Sooners", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Xavier Robinson", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Xavier Robinson" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401856717", "matchup": "Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma Sooners", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 39.5, "price": -105.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856717", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.211381+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.439451+00:00", "home_line": 7.5, "away_line": -7.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 39.5, "under_line": 39.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 250.0, "away_ml": -310.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 4.041666666666671, "production_adjusted": 1.0416666666666714, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.0416666666666714, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.9, 17.9 ], "directional_buffer": 1.2999999999999972, "scenario_minimum": 1.2999999999999972 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.56898152794137, 16.644795217298633 ], "directional_buffer": 0.7137767452400041, "scenario_minimum": 0.7137767452400041 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 1.0416666666666714, "scenario_minimum": 1.0416666666666714 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 1.0416666666666714, "scenario_minimum": 1.0416666666666714 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 1.0416666666666714, "stressed_buffer": -1.9583333333333286 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 1.0416666666666714, "stressed_buffer": -1.9583333333333286 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 4.041666666666671, "stressed_buffer": 1.0416666666666714 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 24.320833333333333, 18.95 ], "directional_buffer": 3.7708333333333286, "stressed_buffer": 0.7708333333333286 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 24.320833333333333, 21.95 ], "directional_buffer": 6.770833333333329, "stressed_buffer": 3.7708333333333286 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 24.320833333333333, 21.950000000000003 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 21.75, 23.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.625, 17.625 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.1333333333333329, -1.1333333333333329 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Oklahoma Sooners", "names": [ "Trell Harris" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Oklahoma Sooners", "names": [ "Xavier Robinson" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Kewan Lacy" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401856718", "matchup": "Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "names": [ "Kewan Lacy" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official game center identifies Lacy rushing leader (191 yards), current SEC QUESTIONABLE. Replacement committee is candidate redistribution; final touch shares remain unverified. Dye's one current carry is not a second material-loss deduction. | Vanderbilt Commodores: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.848333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.583333333333336, 29.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.25, 28.075 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.4016666666666673, 1.0983333333333327 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 45, "def_drives": 46, "off_points_proxy": 140, "def_points_proxy": 122, "off_plays": 338, "off_yards": 2307, "def_plays": 349, "def_yards": 2212, "early_plays": 263, "early_yards": 1681, "explosive_plays": 30, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856661", "401856676", "401856688", "401856699" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 3.111111111111111, "def_ppd": 2.652173913043478, "off_ypp": 6.825443786982248, "def_ypp": 6.33810888252149, "early_down_ypp": 6.391634980988593 }, "home": { "off_drives": 53, "def_drives": 56, "off_points_proxy": 106, "def_points_proxy": 113, "off_plays": 390, "off_yards": 2251, "def_plays": 412, "def_yards": 2219, "early_plays": 268, "early_yards": 1380, "explosive_plays": 26, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856669", "401856684", "401856695", "401856698", "401856705" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.0, "def_ppd": 2.017857142857143, "off_ypp": 5.771794871794872, "def_ypp": 5.385922330097087, "early_down_ypp": 5.149253731343284 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 62. East wind around 5 mph. Saturday Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. High near 71. East southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers, mainly before 11pm. Low around 59. East northeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Nashville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1716&textField2=-86.7848&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Kewan Lacy" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856718", "matchup": "Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "names": [ "Kewan Lacy" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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"eventId": "401856718", "teamId": "145", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "side": "away", "opponent": "Vanderbilt Commodores", "conferenceReportKey": "Ole Miss", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4911529", "name": "Trinidad Chambliss", "position": "QB", "workload": "102/144, 1222 YDS, 8 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/4911529/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141506", "name": "Deuce Knight", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/8, 68 YDS, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/5141506/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5086388", "name": "Kewan Lacy", "position": "RB", "workload": "39 CAR, 191 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/5086388/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5084286", "name": "Makhi Frazier", "position": "RB", "workload": "17 CAR, 80 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/5084286/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5209688", "name": "JT Lindsey", "position": "RB", "workload": "23 CAR, 79 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/5209688/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5152158", "name": "Deuce Alexander", "position": "WR", "workload": "27 REC, 429 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/5152158/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870912", "name": "Traylon Ray", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 188 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/4870912/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4711408", "name": "Horatio Fields", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 171 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/4711408/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5079647", "name": "Caleb Odom", "position": "TE", "workload": "13 REC, 201 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/5079647/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870797", "name": "Luke Hasz", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 40 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/4870797/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Izaiah Hartrup", "id": "4695341", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Joshua Dye", "id": "5125900", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 11 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Wyatt Smalley", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Kewan Lacy", "id": "5086388", "position": "RB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "39 CAR, 191 YDS, 4 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "7 REC, 16 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Official game center identifies Lacy rushing leader (191 yards), current SEC QUESTIONABLE. Replacement committee is candidate redistribution; final touch shares remain unverified. Dye's one current carry is not a second material-loss deduction.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Kewan Lacy" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Kewan Lacy", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 26.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "Primary": [ 23.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "TightenUpON": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Official game center identifies Lacy rushing leader (191 yards), current SEC QUESTIONABLE. Replacement committee is candidate redistribution; final touch shares remain unverified. Dye's one current carry is not a second material-loss deduction.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5086388", "name": "Kewan Lacy", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/241", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "142", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 23, "rushingYards": 104, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.521999835968018, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 9, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5086388/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "145", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 258, "rushingYards": 1279, "rushingTD": 20, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.956999778747559, "receptions": 25, "receivingYards": 154, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5086388/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "145", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 39, "rushingYards": 191, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.900000095367432, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 16, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5086388/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "142", "145" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5084286", "name": "Makhi Frazier", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/244", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "127", "status": "available", "games": 7, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 7, "rushingYards": 21, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 12, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5084286/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "127", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 116, "rushingYards": 520, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.482999801635742, "receptions": 12, "receivingYards": 25, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5084286/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "145", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 17, "rushingYards": 80, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.699999809265137, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 3, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5084286/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "127" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5209688", "name": "JT Lindsey", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/779", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "145", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5209688/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "99", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5209688/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "145", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 23, "rushingYards": 79, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.4000000953674316, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 12, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5209688/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "145", "99" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "JT Lindsey", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "JT Lindsey", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Kewan Lacy" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/145/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "https://olemisssports.com/game-center/14814", "https://olemisssports.com/sports/football/roster/kewan-lacy/6486" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Dye one carry compared with Lacy39/Lindsey23/Frazier17; no material committee-loss deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856718", "teamId": "238", "team": "Vanderbilt Commodores", "side": "home", "opponent": "Ole Miss Rebels", "conferenceReportKey": "Vanderbilt", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5158948", "name": "Jared Curtis", "position": "QB", "workload": "63/98, 746 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/5158948/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5121691", "name": "Blaze Berlowitz", "position": "QB", "workload": "26/48, 368 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/5121691/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5030333", "name": "Sedrick Alexander", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 200 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/5030333/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4912302", "name": "Makhilyn Young", "position": "RB", "workload": "34 CAR, 134 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/4912302/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5218655", "name": "Jamezell Lassiter", "position": "RB", "workload": "14 CAR, 61 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/5218655/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5078165", "name": "Junior Sherrill", "position": "WR", "workload": "28 REC, 474 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/5078165/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5149910", "name": "Tristen Brown", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 130 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/5149910/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295920", "name": "Ja'Cory Thomas", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 78 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/5295920/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5041960", "name": "Jayvontay Conner", "position": "TE", "workload": "11 REC, 126 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/5041960/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4799991", "name": "Cole Spence", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 33 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/4799991/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Kahden Smith", "id": "5276669", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Vanderbilt Commodores: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/238/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.848333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.583333333333336, 29.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.25, 28.075 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.4016666666666673, 1.0983333333333327 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores", "market": { "id": "401856718", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856718", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.338094+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.592330+00:00", "home_line": 9.5, "away_line": -9.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 54.5, "under_line": 54.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": 280.0, "away_ml": -355.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 9.5, "average_total": 54.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.2636363636363619, "combined": 58.631818181818176, "spread_buffer": 9.763636363636362, "total_difference": 4.131818181818176 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.2636363636363619, "combined": 58.631818181818176, "spread_buffer": 9.763636363636362, "total_difference": 4.131818181818176 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 6.3196576502083985, "combined": 58.66059885186766, "spread_buffer": 15.819657650208399, "total_difference": 4.160598851867661 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.3196576502083985, "combined": 58.66059885186766, "spread_buffer": 15.819657650208399, "total_difference": 4.160598851867661 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.307500000000001, "combined": 60.329166666666666, "spread_buffer": 9.192499999999999, "total_difference": 5.829166666666666 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.307500000000001, "combined": 60.329166666666666, "spread_buffer": 9.192499999999999, "total_difference": 5.829166666666666 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401856718", "matchup": "Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "ON_UNRESOLVED_MEDIUM_AVAILABILITY" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Vanderbilt Commodores", "line": 9.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856718", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.338094+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.592330+00:00", "home_line": 9.5, "away_line": -9.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 54.5, "under_line": 54.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": 280.0, "away_ml": -355.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 9.192499999999999, "production_adjusted": 9.192499999999999, "minimum_all_scenarios": 9.192499999999999, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "directional_buffer": 9.763636363636362, "scenario_minimum": 9.763636363636362 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "directional_buffer": 15.819657650208399, "scenario_minimum": 15.819657650208399 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 9.192499999999999, "scenario_minimum": 9.192499999999999 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 9.192499999999999, "scenario_minimum": 9.192499999999999 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 9.192499999999999, "stressed_buffer": 6.192499999999999 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 12.192499999999999, "stressed_buffer": 9.192499999999999 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 9.192499999999999, "stressed_buffer": 6.192499999999999 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.848333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.029999999999998, "stressed_buffer": 10.029999999999998 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.848333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 10.029999999999998, "stressed_buffer": 7.029999999999998 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.848333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.583333333333336, 29.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.25, 28.075 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.4016666666666673, 1.0983333333333327 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "names": [ "Kewan Lacy" ], "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Nashville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1716&textField2=-86.7848&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Nashville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1716&textField2=-86.7848&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:30:00-05:00", "window": "Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. High near 71. East southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 35, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Kewan Lacy" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401856718", "matchup": "Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 54.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856718", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.338094+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.592330+00:00", "home_line": 9.5, "away_line": -9.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 54.5, "under_line": 54.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": 280.0, "away_ml": -355.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 5.829166666666666, "production_adjusted": 5.829166666666666, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.8291666666666657, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "directional_buffer": 4.131818181818176, "scenario_minimum": 1.1318181818181756 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "directional_buffer": 4.160598851867661, "scenario_minimum": 1.160598851867661 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 5.829166666666666, "scenario_minimum": 2.8291666666666657 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 5.829166666666666, "scenario_minimum": 2.8291666666666657 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 2.8291666666666657, "stressed_buffer": -0.17083333333333428 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 2.8291666666666657, "stressed_buffer": -0.17083333333333428 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 5.829166666666666, "stressed_buffer": 2.8291666666666657 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.848333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6666666666666714, "stressed_buffer": 0.6666666666666714 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.848333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 6.666666666666671, "stressed_buffer": 3.6666666666666714 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.848333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.583333333333336, 29.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.25, 28.075 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.4016666666666673, 1.0983333333333327 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "names": [ "Kewan Lacy" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Nashville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1716&textField2=-86.7848&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Nashville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1716&textField2=-86.7848&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:30:00-05:00", "window": "Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. High near 71. East southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 35, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Kewan Lacy" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.307500000000001, "combined": 60.329166666666666, "spread_buffer": 9.192499999999999, "total_difference": 5.829166666666666 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.307500000000001, "combined": 60.329166666666666, "spread_buffer": 9.192499999999999, "total_difference": 5.829166666666666 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401856718", "matchup": "Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "ELIGIBLE_WITH_TIER_DOWNGRADE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Vanderbilt Commodores", "line": 9.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856718", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.338094+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.592330+00:00", "home_line": 9.5, "away_line": -9.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 54.5, "under_line": 54.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": 280.0, "away_ml": -355.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 9.192499999999999, "production_adjusted": 9.192499999999999, "minimum_all_scenarios": 9.192499999999999, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "directional_buffer": 9.763636363636362, "scenario_minimum": 9.763636363636362 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "directional_buffer": 15.819657650208399, "scenario_minimum": 15.819657650208399 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 9.192499999999999, "scenario_minimum": 9.192499999999999 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 9.192499999999999, "scenario_minimum": 9.192499999999999 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 9.192499999999999, "stressed_buffer": 6.192499999999999 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 12.192499999999999, "stressed_buffer": 9.192499999999999 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 9.192499999999999, "stressed_buffer": 6.192499999999999 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.848333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.029999999999998, "stressed_buffer": 10.029999999999998 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.848333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 10.029999999999998, "stressed_buffer": 7.029999999999998 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.848333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.583333333333336, 29.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.25, 28.075 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.4016666666666673, 1.0983333333333327 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "names": [ "Kewan Lacy" ], "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Nashville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1716&textField2=-86.7848&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Nashville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1716&textField2=-86.7848&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:30:00-05:00", "window": "Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. High near 71. East southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 35, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Kewan Lacy" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401856718", "matchup": "Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 54.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856718", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.338094+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.592330+00:00", "home_line": 9.5, "away_line": -9.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 54.5, "under_line": 54.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": 280.0, "away_ml": -355.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 5.829166666666666, "production_adjusted": 5.829166666666666, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.8291666666666657, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "directional_buffer": 4.131818181818176, "scenario_minimum": 1.1318181818181756 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "directional_buffer": 4.160598851867661, "scenario_minimum": 1.160598851867661 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 5.829166666666666, "scenario_minimum": 2.8291666666666657 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 5.829166666666666, "scenario_minimum": 2.8291666666666657 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 2.8291666666666657, "stressed_buffer": -0.17083333333333428 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 2.8291666666666657, "stressed_buffer": -0.17083333333333428 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 5.829166666666666, "stressed_buffer": 2.8291666666666657 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.848333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6666666666666714, "stressed_buffer": 0.6666666666666714 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.848333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 6.666666666666671, "stressed_buffer": 3.6666666666666714 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.848333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.583333333333336, 29.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.25, 28.075 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.4016666666666673, 1.0983333333333327 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "names": [ "Kewan Lacy" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Nashville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1716&textField2=-86.7848&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Nashville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1716&textField2=-86.7848&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:30:00-05:00", "window": "Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. High near 71. East southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 35, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Kewan Lacy" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401856825", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401856825", "date": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3636", "fullName": "Bill Snyder Family Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Manhattan", "state": "KS", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "248", "away_name": "Houston Cougars", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2306", "home_name": "Kansas State Wildcats", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 32.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 32.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.333333333333332, "pa": 21.833333333333332, "margin": 6.5, "event_ids": [ "401756852", "401756884", "401756893", "401752939", "401756913", "401756920", "401756925", "401756929", "401756938", "401756946", "401756957", "401756962" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.0, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.2, "event_ids": [ "401856778", "401856787", "401856811", "401856806", "401856819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.416666666666668, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": 2.75, "event_ids": [ "401756846", "401756855", "401756882", "401756888", "401756906", "401756911", "401756919", "401756932", "401756941", "401756952", "401756960", "401756965" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 40.5, "pa": 15.25, "margin": 25.25, "event_ids": [ "401856771", "401856781", "401856792", "401856814" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.5, 25.625 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.125, 30.15 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.030000000000000072, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.0, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.333333333333332, "pa": 21.833333333333332, "margin": 6.5, "event_ids": [ "401756852", "401756884", "401756893", "401752939", "401756913", "401756920", "401756925", "401756929", "401756938", "401756946", "401756957", "401756962" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.0, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.2, "event_ids": [ "401856778", "401856787", "401856811", "401856806", "401856819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.416666666666668, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": 2.75, "event_ids": [ "401756846", "401756855", "401756882", "401756888", "401756906", "401756911", "401756919", "401756932", "401756941", "401756952", "401756960", "401756965" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 40.5, "pa": 15.25, "margin": 25.25, "event_ids": [ "401856771", "401856781", "401856792", "401856814" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.5, 25.625 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.125, 30.15 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.030000000000000072, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.0, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401856825", "matchup": "Houston Cougars at Kansas State Wildcats", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Houston Cougars: current report contains 2 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Kansas State Wildcats: current report contains 2 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 28.095, 29.4175 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.5, 25.625 ], "currentMatchup": [ 28.125, 30.15 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.030000000000000072, 1.53 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 54, "def_drives": 56, "off_points_proxy": 207, "def_points_proxy": 101, "off_plays": 425, "off_yards": 2814, "def_plays": 389, "def_yards": 1961, "early_plays": 336, "early_yards": 2172, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856778", "401856787", "401856806", "401856811", "401856819" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.8333333333333335, "def_ppd": 1.8035714285714286, "off_ypp": 6.621176470588235, "def_ypp": 5.041131105398458, "early_down_ypp": 6.464285714285714 }, "home": { "off_drives": 45, "def_drives": 45, "off_points_proxy": 155, "def_points_proxy": 54, "off_plays": 351, "off_yards": 2284, "def_plays": 293, "def_yards": 1439, "early_plays": 263, "early_yards": 1709, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856771", "401856781", "401856792", "401856814" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 3.4444444444444446, "def_ppd": 1.2, "off_ypp": 6.507122507122507, "def_ypp": 4.911262798634812, "early_down_ypp": 6.498098859315589 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 89. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 66. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Manhattan&state=KS&site=TOP&textField1=39.1901&textField2=-96.59&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856825", "matchup": "Houston Cougars at Kansas State Wildcats", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/4804882/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/4870857/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/4920187/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/4921113/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/5078225/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/4816098/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/4879567/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5077060/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5078223/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5120299/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5125734/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5146728/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5149563/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5159035/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Manhattan&state=KS&site=TOP&textField1=39.1901&textField2=-96.59&e=0", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2306/roster?season=2026", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/248/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", 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"mainWR": [ { "id": "5077060", "name": "Amare Thomas", "position": "WR", "workload": "27 REC, 330 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5077060/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4879567", "name": "Trent Walker", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 198 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/4879567/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5146728", "name": "Koby Young", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 176 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5146728/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5120299", "name": "Patrick Overmyer", "position": "TE", "workload": "25 REC, 317 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5120299/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5125734", "name": "Luke McGary", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 25 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5125734/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Muizz Tounkara", "id": "5207662", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Jacory Thurman", "id": "5215578", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Houston Cougars: current report contains 2 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/248/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856825", "teamId": "2306", "team": "Kansas State Wildcats", "side": "home", "opponent": "Houston Cougars", "conferenceReportKey": "Kansas State", "officialReport": { "url": "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 21:00 America/Chicago", "conference": "B12" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4870857", "name": "Avery Johnson", "position": "QB", "workload": "88/133, 910 YDS, 7 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/4870857/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5124584", "name": "Blake Barnett", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/5, 41 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/5124584/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5125335", "name": "Rodney Fields Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "49 CAR, 274 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/5125335/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5078916", "name": "Joe Jackson", "position": "RB", "workload": "37 CAR, 189 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/5078916/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5193496", "name": "Jay Harris", "position": "RB", "workload": "14 CAR, 88 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/5193496/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5384681", "name": "Derrick Salley Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 178 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/5384681/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5078225", "name": "Jaron Tibbs", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 168 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/5078225/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4921113", "name": "Josh Manning", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 149 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/4921113/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4804882", "name": "Garrett Oakley", "position": "TE", "workload": "13 REC, 147 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/4804882/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4920187", "name": "Will Anciaux", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 84 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/4920187/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Blake Barnett", "id": "5124584", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "4/5, 41 YDS" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "2 CAR, 3 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Dillon Duff", "id": "5164321", "position": "QB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Kansas State Wildcats: current report contains 2 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2306/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Barnett five attempts compared with Johnson133; reserve availability is not starting-QB replacement.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401858255", "matchup": "Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "names": [ "Malachi Hosley" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Duke Blue Devils: current report contains 5 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.4599358974359, 30.240384615384617 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.5, 30.887820512820515 ], "currentMatchup": [ 31.125, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.1474358974358974, -0.6474358974358974 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 47, "def_drives": 45, "off_points_proxy": 145, "def_points_proxy": 44, "off_plays": 349, "off_yards": 2106, "def_plays": 308, "def_yards": 1528, "early_plays": 248, "early_yards": 1508, "explosive_plays": 30, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858209", "401858217", "401858231", "401858244" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 3.0851063829787235, "def_ppd": 0.9777777777777777, "off_ypp": 6.034383954154728, "def_ypp": 4.961038961038961, "early_down_ypp": 6.080645161290323 }, "home": { "off_drives": 44, "def_drives": 44, "off_points_proxy": 102, "def_points_proxy": 102, "off_plays": 328, "off_yards": 2220, "def_plays": 355, "def_yards": 1753, "early_plays": 233, "early_yards": 1670, "explosive_plays": 40, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856681", "401856776", "401858228", "401858240" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.3181818181818183, "def_ppd": 2.3181818181818183, "off_ypp": 6.7682926829268295, "def_ypp": 4.938028169014085, "early_down_ypp": 7.167381974248927 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 74. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 61. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Atlanta&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=33.7629&textField2=-84.4226&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858255", "matchup": "Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "names": [ "Malachi Hosley" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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"http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/4870760/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5085509/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5103639/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5141362/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5155366/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5191162/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5199859/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5207610/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5215629/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Atlanta&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=33.7629&textField2=-84.4226&e=1", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/150/roster?season=2026", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/59/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview" ], "tu": { "id": "401858255", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401858255", "date": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "721", "fullName": "Bobby Dodd Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Atlanta", "state": "GA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "150", "away_name": "Duke Blue Devils", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "59", "home_name": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 34.0, "pa": 28.692307692307693, "margin": 5.307692307692307, "event_ids": [ "401754517", "401752825", "401754534", "401754538", "401754545", "401754551", "401754566", "401754577", "401754590", "401754593", "401754600", "401754610", "401777328" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36.25, "pa": 11.0, "margin": 25.25, "event_ids": [ "401858209", "401858217", "401858231", "401858244" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.083333333333336, "pa": 25.0, "margin": 8.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401754375", "401754622", "401754623", "401754542", "401754546", "401754560", "401754566", "401754571", "401754579", "401754592", "401754601", "401752786" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27.0, "pa": 26.0, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401856776", "401856681", "401858228", "401858240" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.5, 30.887820512820515 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.125, 19.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.1474358974358974, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 14.459935897435898, 50.4599358974359 ], "home": [ 6.296474358974358, 42.29647435897436 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401858255", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858255", "teamId": "150", "team": "Duke Blue Devils", "side": "away", "opponent": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "conferenceReportKey": "Duke", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4694149", "name": "Walker Eget", "position": "QB", "workload": "58/93, 721 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/4694149/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5185699", "name": "Dan Mahan", "position": "QB", "workload": "6/9, 126 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/5185699/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5164332", "name": "Nate Sheppard", "position": "RB", "workload": "91 CAR, 644 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/5164332/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4873588", "name": "CJ Campbell Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "36 CAR, 139 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/4873588/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5272781", "name": "Jayvian Tanelus", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 90 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/5272781/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4879192", "name": "Jonah Burton", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 187 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/4879192/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5200108", "name": "Jaivon Solomon", "position": "WR", "workload": "5 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/5200108/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5084409", "name": "Jared Richardson", "position": "WR", "workload": "5 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/5084409/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4869728", "name": "Jeremiah Hasley", "position": "TE", "workload": "13 REC, 195 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/4869728/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "3949586", "name": "Jake Taylor", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 33 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/3949586/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Jamien Little", "id": "5208403", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Blake Rohrer", "id": "5372137", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Lawrence Gardner", "id": "5297369", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Qeanu Johnson", "id": "5201874", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Javen Nicholas", "id": "5081131", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, -1 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Duke Blue Devils: current report contains 5 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/150/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858255", "teamId": "59", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "side": "home", "opponent": "Duke Blue Devils", "conferenceReportKey": "Georgia Tech", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5191162", "name": "Alberto Mendoza", "position": "QB", "workload": "84/123, 975 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5191162/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5207610", "name": "Grady Adamson", "position": "QB", "workload": "0/1, 0 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5207610/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4870760", "name": "Justice Haynes", "position": "RB", "workload": "73 CAR, 393 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/4870760/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5103639", "name": "Trelain Maddox", "position": "RB", "workload": "15 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5103639/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5155366", "name": "Malachi Hosley", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 61 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5155366/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5199859", "name": "Dalen Penson", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 241 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5199859/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141362", "name": "Jordan Allen", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 213 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5141362/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4703030", "name": "Jaiven Plummer", "position": "WR", "workload": "2 REC, 60 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/4703030/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5215629", "name": "Kevin Roche Jr.", "position": "TE", "workload": "18 REC, 200 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5215629/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5085509", "name": "Chris Corbo", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 42 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5085509/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Malachi Hosley", "id": "5155366", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "16 CAR, 61 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Kentrell Davis", "id": "5209922", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Coi Jean-Noel", "id": "5374984", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Jaiven Plummer", "id": "4703030", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 60 YDS, 2 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [ "Malachi Hosley" ], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/59/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [ { "name": "Malachi Hosley", "id": "5155366", "status": "out", "reason": "16 carries versus Haynes73 and Maddox15; secondary committee role comparable to other reserve. Retain isolated if material workload confirmed; do not assert automatic production deduction.", "condition": "Only if covered/main-role workload is confirmed; OUT is verified but main-role eligibility is conditional", "incumbentHistoryRef": "player-histories.json#/players/301", "candidateReplacements": [ { "id": "4870760", "name": "Justice Haynes", "position": "RB", "workload": "73 CAR, 393 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/4870760/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/306" }, { "id": "5103639", "name": "Trelain Maddox", "position": "RB", "workload": "15 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5103639/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/307" } ], "statisticalPointEffect": null, "isolatedHumanDeduction": -3, "jointWithConfirmedDeduction": -3, "overlap": "Rushing workload independent of named receiver loss; do not count receptions separately.", "scores": { "Classic": { "isolated": [ 29.4, 23.88269230769231 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 29.4, 23.88269230769231 ] }, "Primary": { "isolated": [ 26.222363923104066, 28.56861852148741 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 26.222363923104066, 28.56861852148741 ] }, "TightenUpON": { "isolated": [ 32.4599358974359, 21.296474358974358 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 32.4599358974359, 21.296474358974358 ] }, "TightenUpOFF": { "isolated": [ 32.4599358974359, 21.296474358974358 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 32.4599358974359, 21.296474358974358 ] } } } ] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.4599358974359, 30.240384615384617 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -2.517307692307689, "combined": 56.28269230769231, "spread_buffer": 3.982692307692311, "total_difference": 11.782692307692308 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -2.517307692307689, "combined": 56.28269230769231, "spread_buffer": 3.982692307692311, "total_difference": 11.782692307692308 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 5.346254598383343, "combined": 57.79098244459148, "spread_buffer": 11.846254598383343, "total_difference": 13.290982444591478 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 5.346254598383343, "combined": 57.79098244459148, "spread_buffer": 11.846254598383343, "total_difference": 13.290982444591478 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -8.16346153846154, "combined": 56.756410256410255, "spread_buffer": -1.66346153846154, "total_difference": 12.256410256410255 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -8.16346153846154, "combined": 56.756410256410255, "spread_buffer": -1.66346153846154, "total_difference": 12.256410256410255 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401858255", "matchup": "Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Duke Blue Devils", "line": -6.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858255", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.378311+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.607839+00:00", "home_line": 6.5, "away_line": -6.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 44.5, "under_line": 44.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 200.0, "away_ml": -245.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 1.66346153846154, "production_adjusted": 1.66346153846154, "minimum_all_scenarios": -4.2804487179487225, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": -3.982692307692311, "scenario_minimum": -3.982692307692311 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "directional_buffer": -11.846254598383343, "scenario_minimum": -11.846254598383343 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "directional_buffer": 1.66346153846154, "scenario_minimum": 1.66346153846154 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "directional_buffer": 1.66346153846154, "scenario_minimum": 1.66346153846154 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.4599358974359, 30.24038461538462 ], "directional_buffer": -4.2804487179487225, "stressed_buffer": -7.2804487179487225 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "directional_buffer": 1.66346153846154, "stressed_buffer": -1.33653846153846 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.4599358974359, 30.24038461538462 ], "directional_buffer": -4.2804487179487225, "stressed_buffer": -7.2804487179487225 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.4599358974359, 30.240384615384617 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.5, 30.887820512820515 ], "currentMatchup": [ 31.125, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.1474358974358974, -0.6474358974358974 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "names": [ "Malachi Hosley" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Atlanta&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=33.7629&textField2=-84.4226&e=1" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Atlanta&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=33.7629&textField2=-84.4226&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:30:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 74. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 61. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 45, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401858255", "matchup": "Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK", "ON_UNRESOLVED_MEDIUM_AVAILABILITY" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 44.5, "price": -105.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858255", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.378311+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.607839+00:00", "home_line": 6.5, "away_line": -6.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 44.5, "under_line": 44.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 200.0, "away_ml": -245.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 12.256410256410255, "production_adjusted": 12.256410256410255, "minimum_all_scenarios": 12.256410256410255, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 11.782692307692308, "scenario_minimum": 11.782692307692308 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "directional_buffer": 13.290982444591478, "scenario_minimum": 13.290982444591478 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "directional_buffer": 12.256410256410255, "scenario_minimum": 12.256410256410255 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "directional_buffer": 12.256410256410255, "scenario_minimum": 12.256410256410255 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "directional_buffer": 12.256410256410255, "stressed_buffer": 9.256410256410255 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "directional_buffer": 12.256410256410255, "stressed_buffer": 9.256410256410255 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.4599358974359, 30.24038461538462 ], "directional_buffer": 18.200320512820518, "stressed_buffer": 15.200320512820518 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.4599358974359, 30.240384615384617 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.5, 30.887820512820515 ], "currentMatchup": [ 31.125, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.1474358974358974, -0.6474358974358974 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "names": [ "Malachi Hosley" ], "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Atlanta&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=33.7629&textField2=-84.4226&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Atlanta&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=33.7629&textField2=-84.4226&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:30:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 74. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 61. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 45, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -8.16346153846154, "combined": 56.756410256410255, "spread_buffer": -1.66346153846154, "total_difference": 12.256410256410255 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -8.16346153846154, "combined": 56.756410256410255, "spread_buffer": -1.66346153846154, "total_difference": 12.256410256410255 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401858255", "matchup": "Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Duke Blue Devils", "line": -6.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858255", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.378311+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.607839+00:00", "home_line": 6.5, "away_line": -6.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 44.5, "under_line": 44.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 200.0, "away_ml": -245.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 1.66346153846154, "production_adjusted": 1.66346153846154, "minimum_all_scenarios": -4.2804487179487225, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": -3.982692307692311, "scenario_minimum": -3.982692307692311 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "directional_buffer": -11.846254598383343, "scenario_minimum": -11.846254598383343 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "directional_buffer": 1.66346153846154, "scenario_minimum": 1.66346153846154 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "directional_buffer": 1.66346153846154, "scenario_minimum": 1.66346153846154 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.4599358974359, 30.24038461538462 ], "directional_buffer": -4.2804487179487225, "stressed_buffer": -7.2804487179487225 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "directional_buffer": 1.66346153846154, "stressed_buffer": -1.33653846153846 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.4599358974359, 30.24038461538462 ], "directional_buffer": -4.2804487179487225, "stressed_buffer": -7.2804487179487225 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.4599358974359, 30.240384615384617 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.5, 30.887820512820515 ], "currentMatchup": [ 31.125, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.1474358974358974, -0.6474358974358974 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "names": [ "Malachi Hosley" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Atlanta&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=33.7629&textField2=-84.4226&e=1" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Atlanta&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=33.7629&textField2=-84.4226&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:30:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 74. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 61. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 45, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401858255", "matchup": "Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 44.5, "price": -105.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858255", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.378311+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.607839+00:00", "home_line": 6.5, "away_line": -6.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 44.5, "under_line": 44.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 200.0, "away_ml": -245.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 12.256410256410255, "production_adjusted": 12.256410256410255, "minimum_all_scenarios": 12.256410256410255, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 11.782692307692308, "scenario_minimum": 11.782692307692308 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "directional_buffer": 13.290982444591478, "scenario_minimum": 13.290982444591478 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "directional_buffer": 12.256410256410255, "scenario_minimum": 12.256410256410255 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "directional_buffer": 12.256410256410255, "scenario_minimum": 12.256410256410255 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "directional_buffer": 12.256410256410255, "stressed_buffer": 9.256410256410255 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "directional_buffer": 12.256410256410255, "stressed_buffer": 9.256410256410255 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.4599358974359, 30.24038461538462 ], "directional_buffer": 18.200320512820518, "stressed_buffer": 15.200320512820518 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.4599358974359, 30.240384615384617 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.5, 30.887820512820515 ], "currentMatchup": [ 31.125, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.1474358974358974, -0.6474358974358974 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "names": [ "Malachi Hosley" ], "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Atlanta&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=33.7629&textField2=-84.4226&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Atlanta&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=33.7629&textField2=-84.4226&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:30:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 74. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 61. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 45, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401858257", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401858257", "date": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3855", "fullName": "Notre Dame Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Notre Dame", "state": "IN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "24", "away_name": "Stanford Cardinal", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "87", "home_name": "Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 18.833333333333332, 29.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 17.4, 38.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 42.0, 17.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 41.2, 11.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 16.0, 38.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.0, 38.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "adjusted_score": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "conditional_score": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 11.5, 43.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 11.5, 43.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.833333333333332, "pa": 29.166666666666668, "margin": -10.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401754516", "401754526", "401754533", "401754539", "401754549", "401754561", "401754567", "401754572", "401754582", "401754588", "401754599", "401754614" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.4, "pa": 38.2, "margin": -20.800000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401858201", "401858206", "401858231", "401858240", "401858251" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 42.0, "pa": 17.583333333333332, "margin": 24.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754522", "401752707", "401752848", "401752717", "401757165", "401754562", "401752871", "401754583", "401757166", "401754597", "401754604", "401754614" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 11.8, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858438", "401859184", "401858453", "401858467", "401858250" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.208333333333332, 35.583333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 14.6, 39.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -8.495000000000003, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 8.0, 47.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 8.0, 47.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.833333333333332, "pa": 29.166666666666668, "margin": -10.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401754516", "401754526", "401754533", "401754539", "401754549", "401754561", "401754567", "401754572", "401754582", "401754588", "401754599", "401754614" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.4, "pa": 38.2, "margin": -20.800000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401858201", "401858206", "401858231", "401858240", "401858251" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 42.0, "pa": 17.583333333333332, "margin": 24.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754522", "401752707", "401752848", "401752717", "401757165", "401754562", "401752871", "401754583", "401757166", "401754597", "401754604", "401754614" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 11.8, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858438", "401859184", "401858453", "401858467", "401858250" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.208333333333332, 35.583333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 14.6, 39.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -8.495000000000003, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 8.0, 47.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 8.0, 47.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Stanford Cardinal", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401858257", "matchup": "Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Stanford Cardinal", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Stanford Cardinal: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Notre Dame Fighting Irish: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 9.71333333333333, 47.63666666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 18.208333333333332, 35.583333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 14.6, 39.7 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -8.495000000000003, 9.995000000000003 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 59, "off_points_proxy": 78, "def_points_proxy": 193, "off_plays": 456, "off_yards": 2281, "def_plays": 444, "def_yards": 2675, "early_plays": 311, "early_yards": 1596, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858201", "401858206", "401858231", "401858240", "401858251" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.3220338983050848, "def_ppd": 3.2711864406779663, "off_ypp": 5.00219298245614, "def_ypp": 6.024774774774775, "early_down_ypp": 5.131832797427653 }, "home": { "off_drives": 51, "def_drives": 52, "off_points_proxy": 186, "def_points_proxy": 61, "off_plays": 405, "off_yards": 2501, "def_plays": 382, "def_yards": 1732, "early_plays": 298, "early_yards": 1953, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858250", "401858438", "401858453", "401858467", "401859184" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.6470588235294117, "def_ppd": 1.1730769230769231, "off_ypp": 6.175308641975309, "def_ypp": 4.534031413612565, "early_down_ypp": 6.553691275167785 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 78. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Notre+Dame&state=IN&site=IWX&textField1=41.701&textField2=-86.2416&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Stanford Cardinal", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858257", "matchup": "Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Stanford Cardinal", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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"position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 266 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/athletes/5231354/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5217152", "name": "Zion Robinson", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 155 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/athletes/5217152/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5094032", "name": "Nico Brown", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 148 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/athletes/5094032/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5146764", "name": "Benji Blackburn", "position": "TE", "workload": "20 REC, 159 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/athletes/5146764/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5077804", "name": "Chico Holt", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 17 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/athletes/5077804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Stanford Cardinal: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/24/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858257", "teamId": "87", "team": "Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "side": "home", "opponent": "Stanford Cardinal", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5079369", "name": "CJ Carr", "position": "QB", "workload": "88/124, 1197 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/5079369/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5159115", "name": "Noah Grubbs", "position": "QB", "workload": "9/15, 108 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/5159115/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5079742", "name": "Aneyas Williams", "position": "RB", "workload": "60 CAR, 266 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/5079742/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5189515", "name": "Nolan James Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "55 CAR, 262 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/5189515/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5159087", "name": "Jonaz Walton", "position": "RB", "workload": "39 CAR, 228 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/5159087/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5150424", "name": "Jordan Faison", "position": "WR", "workload": "25 REC, 371 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/5150424/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079475", "name": "Micah Gilbert", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 368 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/5079475/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870768", "name": "Jaden Greathouse", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/4870768/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4870733", "name": "Cooper Flanagan", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 48 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/4870733/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5142596", "name": "James Flanigan", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 19 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/5142596/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Notre Dame Fighting Irish: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. 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PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/87/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. 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Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 20, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Stanford Cardinal", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401858257", "matchup": "Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 54.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858257", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.398937+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.651718+00:00", "home_line": -39.5, "away_line": 39.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 54.5, "under_line": 54.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": null, "away_ml": null, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": false }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 1.0458333333333343, "production_adjusted": 1.0458333333333343, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.0458333333333343, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "directional_buffer": -0.47727272727273373, "scenario_minimum": -0.47727272727273373 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8679431172252947, "scenario_minimum": 0.8679431172252947 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 1.0458333333333343, "scenario_minimum": 1.0458333333333343 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 1.0458333333333343, "scenario_minimum": 1.0458333333333343 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 1.0458333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -1.9541666666666657 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 1.0458333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -1.9541666666666657 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 9.71333333333333, 47.63666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.8500000000000014, "stressed_buffer": -0.14999999999999858 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 9.71333333333333, 47.63666666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 18.208333333333332, 35.583333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 14.6, 39.7 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -8.495000000000003, 9.995000000000003 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Stanford Cardinal", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Notre+Dame&state=IN&site=IWX&textField1=41.701&textField2=-86.2416&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:30:00-04:00", "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 78. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ] }, { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.416666666666668, 30.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 41.2, 19.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.833333333333332, 26.5 ], "current_rates": [ 27.0, 26.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 23.873504124147136 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ] }, { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 30.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 30.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] }, { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.416666666666668, "pa": 30.166666666666668, "margin": -8.75, "event_ids": [ "401752680", "401752695", "401754536", "401754617", "401754548", "401754556", "401754560", "401754372", "401754580", "401754594", "401754603", "401754613" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858211", "401858221", "401858232", "401858242", "401858245" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.833333333333332, "pa": 26.5, "margin": -1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401752936", "401754530", "401752840", "401754540", "401754544", "401754551", "401754371", "401754372", "401754576", "401754585", "401754599", "401754609" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.0, "pa": 26.6, "margin": 0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858210", "401858216", "401858233", "401858234", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.958333333333336, 27.5 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.900000000000006, 23.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.3916666666666673, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] }, { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.416666666666668, "pa": 30.166666666666668, "margin": -8.75, "event_ids": [ "401752680", "401752695", "401754536", "401754617", "401754548", "401754556", "401754560", "401754372", "401754580", "401754594", "401754603", "401754613" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858211", "401858221", "401858232", "401858242", "401858245" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.833333333333332, "pa": 26.5, "margin": -1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401752936", "401754530", "401752840", "401754540", "401754544", "401754551", "401754371", "401754372", "401754576", "401754585", "401754599", "401754609" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.0, "pa": 26.6, "margin": 0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858210", "401858216", "401858233", "401858234", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.958333333333336, 27.5 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.900000000000006, 23.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.3916666666666673, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "California Golden Bears", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, Adam Mohammed" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401858259", "matchup": "Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden Bears", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "California Golden Bears", "names": [ "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "Adam Mohammed" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Virginia Tech Hokies: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | QB QUESTIONABLE and lead RB DOUBTFUL, neither silently converted OUT. Brousseau's UNLV relief: 19/32, 200 yards, two TD, no INT. Separate isolated -3 branches plus combined -6 for QB passing role and RB rushing workload; Mohammed receiving targets overlap passing loss and are not counted a third time. Rolovich retained as QB coach provides verified system context, not automatic score credit.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.320833333333336, 27.608333333333334 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.958333333333336, 27.5 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.900000000000006, 23.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.3916666666666673, 0.10833333333333273 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 64, "off_points_proxy": 189, "def_points_proxy": 109, "off_plays": 474, "off_yards": 2779, "def_plays": 400, "def_yards": 1741, "early_plays": 345, "early_yards": 2040, "explosive_plays": 38, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858211", "401858221", "401858232", "401858242", "401858245" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.0483870967741935, "def_ppd": 1.703125, "off_ypp": 5.862869198312236, "def_ypp": 4.3525, "early_down_ypp": 5.913043478260869 }, "home": { "off_drives": 64, "def_drives": 65, "off_points_proxy": 120, "def_points_proxy": 127, "off_plays": 452, "off_yards": 2732, "def_plays": 437, "def_yards": 2626, "early_plays": 316, "early_yards": 1745, "explosive_plays": 39, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858210", "401858216", "401858233", "401858234", "401858247" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.875, "def_ppd": 1.9538461538461538, "off_ypp": 6.04424778761062, "def_ypp": 6.009153318077804, "early_down_ypp": 5.522151898734177 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 59. South southwest wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51. South southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Berkeley&state=CA&site=MTR&textField1=37.8717&textField2=-122.272&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "California Golden Bears", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, Adam Mohammed" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858259", "matchup": "Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden Bears", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "California Golden Bears", "names": [ "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "Adam Mohammed" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/4688541/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/4921110/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5054036/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5075390/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5147861/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5138451/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5141366/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5144078/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5158951/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5159010/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5161652/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5214409/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5218787/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5260847/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://calbears.com/news/2026/10/4/football-postgame-notes-unlv-39-california-31", "https://calbears.com/news/2026/10/6/football-bears-to-host-hokies-in-berkeley-for-first-time", "https://calbears.com/staff-directory/nick-rolovich/5517", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Berkeley&state=CA&site=MTR&textField1=37.8717&textField2=-122.272&e=0", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/25/roster?season=2026", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/259/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5054036/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5147861/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5164313/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5192899/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5218743/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5054036/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5147861/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5164313/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5192899/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5218743/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5054036/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5147861/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5164313/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5192899/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5218743/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview" ], "tu": { "id": "401858259", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401858259", "date": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3831", "fullName": "California Memorial Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Berkeley", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "259", "away_name": "Virginia Tech Hokies", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "25", "home_name": "California Golden Bears", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.416666666666668, "pa": 30.166666666666668, "margin": -8.75, "event_ids": [ "401752680", "401752695", "401754536", "401754617", "401754548", "401754556", "401754560", "401754372", "401754580", "401754594", "401754603", "401754613" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858211", "401858221", "401858232", "401858242", "401858245" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.833333333333332, "pa": 26.5, "margin": -1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401752936", "401754530", "401752840", "401754540", "401754544", "401754551", "401754371", "401754372", "401754576", "401754585", "401754599", "401754609" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.0, "pa": 26.6, "margin": 0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858210", "401858216", "401858233", "401858234", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.958333333333336, 27.5 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.900000000000006, 23.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.3916666666666673, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 12.320833333333336, 48.32083333333334 ], "home": [ 7.558333333333334, 43.55833333333334 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401858259", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858259", "teamId": "259", "team": "Virginia Tech Hokies", "side": "away", "opponent": "California Golden Bears", "conferenceReportKey": "Virginia Tech", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5144078", "name": "Ethan Grunkemeyer", "position": "QB", "workload": "131/177, 1446 YDS, 11 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5144078/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141366", "name": "Bryce Baker", "position": "QB", "workload": "11/14, 127 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5141366/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5214409", "name": "Jeffrey Overton Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "77 CAR, 455 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5214409/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5260847", "name": "Marcellous Hawkins Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "58 CAR, 238 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5260847/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5159010", "name": "Messiah Mickens", "position": "RB", "workload": "8 CAR, 34 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5159010/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5218787", "name": "Que'Sean Brown", "position": "WR", "workload": "33 REC, 371 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5218787/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4918417", "name": "Ayden Greene", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 213 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/4918417/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5158951", "name": "Davion Brown", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 137 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5158951/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5138451", "name": "Luke Reynolds", "position": "TE", "workload": "37 REC, 373 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5138451/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5161652", "name": "Ja'Ricous Hairston", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5161652/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Takye Heath", "id": "4922987", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Shamarius Peterkin", "id": "5141601", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Bill Davis", "id": "5156906", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "L.J. Booker", "id": "5230251", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Virginia Tech Hokies: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/259/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858259", "teamId": "25", "team": "California Golden Bears", "side": "home", "opponent": "Virginia Tech Hokies", "conferenceReportKey": "California", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5164313", "name": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "position": "QB", "workload": "107/164, 1180 YDS, 8 TD, 5 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5164313/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5054036", "name": "Jackson Brousseau", "position": "QB", "workload": "29/48, 299 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5054036/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5147861", "name": "Adam Mohammed", "position": "RB", "workload": "73 CAR, 336 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5147861/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5192899", "name": "Ashten Emory", "position": "RB", "workload": "28 CAR, 103 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5192899/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5164327", "name": "Anthony League", "position": "RB", "workload": "7 CAR, 17 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5164327/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5075390", "name": "Ian Strong", "position": "WR", "workload": "23 REC, 299 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5075390/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4921110", "name": "Chase Hendricks", "position": "WR", "workload": "32 REC, 267 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/4921110/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4688541", "name": "Kyion Grayes", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/4688541/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5165154", "name": "Mason Mini", "position": "TE", "workload": "12 REC, 152 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5165154/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5217177", "name": "Taimane Purcell", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 125 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5217177/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Carter Vargas", "id": "5148905", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "4 CAR, 14 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 6 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Adam Mohammed", "id": "5147861", "position": "RB", "status": "doubtful", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "73 CAR, 336 YDS, 3 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "17 REC, 168 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "id": "5164313", "position": "QB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "107/164, 1180 YDS, 8 TD, 5 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "13 CAR, -40 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Chase Hendricks", "id": "4921110", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, -1 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "32 REC, 267 YDS, 2 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "QB QUESTIONABLE and lead RB DOUBTFUL, neither silently converted OUT. Brousseau's UNLV relief: 19/32, 200 yards, two TD, no INT. Separate isolated -3 branches plus combined -6 for QB passing role and RB rushing workload; Mohammed receiving targets overlap passing loss and are not counted a third time. Rolovich retained as QB coach provides verified system context, not automatic score credit.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "Adam Mohammed" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ], "Primary": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ], "TightenUpON": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] } }, { "name": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ], "Primary": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ], "TightenUpON": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -6, "overlapTreatment": "QB QUESTIONABLE and lead RB DOUBTFUL, neither silently converted OUT. Brousseau's UNLV relief: 19/32, 200 yards, two TD, no INT. Separate isolated -3 branches plus combined -6 for QB passing role and RB rushing workload; Mohammed receiving targets overlap passing loss and are not counted a third time. Rolovich retained as QB coach provides verified system context, not automatic score credit.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.727272727272727, 20.386363636363633 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.129854652453645, 23.873504124147136 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5164313", "name": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/331", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5164313/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "25", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 453, "passingYards": 3117, "passingTD": 17, "interceptions": 9, "sacks": 29, "completionPct": 63.57600021362305, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.88100004196167, "rushAttempts": 56, "rushingYards": -135, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -2.4110000133514404, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5164313/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 164, "passingYards": 1180, "passingTD": 8, "interceptions": 5, "sacks": 8, "completionPct": 65.19999694824219, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.199999809265137, "rushAttempts": 13, "rushingYards": -40, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -3.0999999046325684, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5164313/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "25" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5147861", "name": "Adam Mohammed", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/330", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "264", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 37, "rushingYards": 188, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.080999851226807, "receptions": 5, "receivingYards": 30, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5147861/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "264", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 104, "rushingYards": 517, "rushingTD": 5, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.9710001945495605, "receptions": 16, "receivingYards": 144, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5147861/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 73, "rushingYards": 336, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.599999904632568, "receptions": 17, "receivingYards": 168, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5147861/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "264" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5054036", "name": "Jackson Brousseau", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/333", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "36", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 6, "passingYards": 15, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 50, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 2.5, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 8, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 8, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5054036/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "36", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 201, "passingYards": 1354, "passingTD": 9, "interceptions": 3, "sacks": 21, "completionPct": 63.68199920654297, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.736000061035156, "rushAttempts": 54, "rushingYards": 15, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0.27799999713897705, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5054036/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 48, "passingYards": 299, "passingTD": 2, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 2, "completionPct": 60.400001525878906, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.199999809265137, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 1, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0.30000001192092896, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5054036/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "36" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5192899", "name": "Ashten Emory", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/335", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 6, "rushingYards": 23, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.8329999446868896, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 12, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5192899/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 119, "rushingYards": 569, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.7820000648498535, "receptions": 16, "receivingYards": 103, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5192899/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 28, "rushingYards": 103, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.700000047683716, "receptions": 5, "receivingYards": 37, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5192899/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2638" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5218743", "name": "Carson Perry-Smith", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/765", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5218743/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "25", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5218743/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 5, "rushingYards": 14, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.799999952316284, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 53, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5218743/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "25" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Carson Perry-Smith", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, Adam Mohammed" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/25/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "https://calbears.com/news/2026/10/6/football-bears-to-host-hokies-in-berkeley-for-first-time", "https://calbears.com/news/2026/10/4/football-postgame-notes-unlv-39-california-31", "https://calbears.com/staff-directory/nick-rolovich/5517" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Vargas four carries versus Mohammed73/Emory28; no additional material-loss deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.727272727272727, 20.386363636363633 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.129854652453645, 23.873504124147136 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.320833333333336, 27.608333333333334 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.958333333333336, 27.5 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.900000000000006, 23.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.3916666666666673, 0.10833333333333273 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden Bears", "market": { "id": "401858259", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858259", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.437142+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.647682+00:00", "home_line": 10.0, "away_line": -10.0, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 53.5, "under_line": 53.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": 295.0, "away_ml": -375.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 10.0, "average_total": 53.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -1.3409090909090935, "combined": 54.11363636363636, "spread_buffer": 8.659090909090907, "total_difference": 0.6136363636363598 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -1.3409090909090935, "combined": 54.11363636363636, "spread_buffer": 8.659090909090907, "total_difference": 0.6136363636363598 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 5.743649471693491, "combined": 54.00335877660078, "spread_buffer": 15.743649471693491, "total_difference": 0.503358776600777 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 5.743649471693491, "combined": 54.00335877660078, "spread_buffer": 15.743649471693491, "total_difference": 0.503358776600777 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -4.762500000000003, "combined": 55.87916666666667, "spread_buffer": 5.237499999999997, "total_difference": 2.37916666666667 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -4.762500000000003, "combined": 55.87916666666667, "spread_buffer": 5.237499999999997, "total_difference": 2.37916666666667 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401858259", "matchup": "Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden Bears", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "California Golden Bears", "line": 10.0, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858259", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.437142+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.647682+00:00", "home_line": 10.0, "away_line": -10.0, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 53.5, "under_line": 53.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": 295.0, "away_ml": -375.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 5.237499999999997, "production_adjusted": 5.237499999999997, "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.7625000000000028, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "directional_buffer": 8.659090909090907, "scenario_minimum": 2.6590909090909065 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "directional_buffer": 15.743649471693491, "scenario_minimum": 9.743649471693491 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 5.237499999999997, "scenario_minimum": -0.7625000000000028 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 5.237499999999997, "scenario_minimum": -0.7625000000000028 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": -0.7625000000000028, "stressed_buffer": -3.762500000000003 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": -0.7625000000000028, "stressed_buffer": -3.762500000000003 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 2.237499999999997, "stressed_buffer": -0.7625000000000028 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 5.237499999999997, "stressed_buffer": 2.237499999999997 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.320833333333336, 21.608333333333338 ], "directional_buffer": 1.2875000000000014, "stressed_buffer": -1.7124999999999986 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.320833333333336, 24.608333333333338 ], "directional_buffer": 4.287500000000001, "stressed_buffer": 1.2875000000000014 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.320833333333336, 27.608333333333338 ], "directional_buffer": 7.287500000000001, "stressed_buffer": 4.287500000000001 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.320833333333336, 27.608333333333334 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.958333333333336, 27.5 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.900000000000006, 23.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.3916666666666673, 0.10833333333333273 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "California Golden Bears", "names": [ "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "Adam Mohammed" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Berkeley&state=CA&site=MTR&textField1=37.8717&textField2=-122.272&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:30:00-07:00", "window": "Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "California Golden Bears", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, Adam Mohammed" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401858259", "matchup": "Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden Bears", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 53.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858259", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.437142+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.647682+00:00", "home_line": 10.0, "away_line": -10.0, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 53.5, "under_line": 53.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": 295.0, "away_ml": -375.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 2.37916666666667, "production_adjusted": 2.37916666666667, "minimum_all_scenarios": -3.62083333333333, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6136363636363598, "scenario_minimum": -5.38636363636364 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "directional_buffer": 0.503358776600777, "scenario_minimum": -5.496641223399223 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 2.37916666666667, "scenario_minimum": -3.62083333333333 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 2.37916666666667, "scenario_minimum": -3.62083333333333 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": -3.62083333333333, "stressed_buffer": -6.62083333333333 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": -3.62083333333333, "stressed_buffer": -6.62083333333333 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": -0.62083333333333, "stressed_buffer": -3.62083333333333 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 2.37916666666667, "stressed_buffer": -0.62083333333333 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.320833333333336, 21.608333333333338 ], "directional_buffer": -1.5708333333333258, "stressed_buffer": -4.570833333333326 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.320833333333336, 24.608333333333338 ], "directional_buffer": 1.4291666666666742, "stressed_buffer": -1.5708333333333258 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.320833333333336, 27.608333333333338 ], "directional_buffer": 4.429166666666674, "stressed_buffer": 1.4291666666666742 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.320833333333336, 27.608333333333334 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401858480", "matchup": "Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Illinois Fighting Illini", "names": [ "Ca'Lil Valentine" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Michigan State Spartans", "names": [ "Cam Edwards" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Valentine's 50 carries exceed Laughery's 45, verifying material committee role despite fewer yards. Laughery 321 yards becomes main redistribution candidate. Receiving loss only three catches and not an independent second deduction. | Edwards leads 64 carries/304 yards. Patterson 44/162 and Parrish 29/89 make redistribution plausible. QB Fancher is questionable reserve (11 attempts versus Milivojevic 129); this alone does not justify starting-QB -3.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.364166666666666, 23.314999999999998 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.625, 23.916666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.9, 22.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.101666666666667, -0.601666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 47, "def_drives": 48, "off_points_proxy": 140, "def_points_proxy": 129, "off_plays": 394, "off_yards": 2557, "def_plays": 429, "def_yards": 2473, "early_plays": 290, "early_yards": 1806, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858217", "401858424", "401858448", "401858465", "401858472" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.978723404255319, "def_ppd": 2.6875, "off_ypp": 6.48984771573604, "def_ypp": 5.764568764568764, "early_down_ypp": 6.227586206896552 }, "home": { "off_drives": 50, "def_drives": 51, "off_points_proxy": 90, "def_points_proxy": 117, "off_plays": 437, "off_yards": 2246, "def_plays": 394, "def_yards": 2031, "early_plays": 302, "early_yards": 1528, "explosive_plays": 28, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858429", "401858440", "401858453", "401858464", "401858479" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.8, "def_ppd": 2.2941176470588234, "off_ypp": 5.139588100686499, "def_ypp": 5.154822335025381, "early_down_ypp": 5.059602649006623 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Increasing clouds, with a high near 75. South southeast wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=East+Lansing&state=MI&site=GRR&textField1=42.736&textField2=-84.4843&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858480", "matchup": "Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Illinois Fighting Illini", "names": [ "Ca'Lil Valentine" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Michigan State Spartans", "names": [ "Cam Edwards" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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"MI", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "356", "away_name": "Illinois Fighting Illini", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "127", "home_name": "Michigan State Spartans", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.333333333333332, "pa": 23.25, "margin": 6.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752795", "401752825", "401752829", "401752843", "401752850", "401752861", "401752865", "401752880", "401752891", "401752906", "401752915", "401752922" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.6, "pa": 26.0, "margin": 4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858424", "401858217", "401858448", "401858465", "401858472" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.583333333333332, "pa": 29.916666666666668, "margin": -5.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401752802", "401752816", "401752834", "401752847", "401752860", "401752863", "401752878", "401752881", "401752888", "401752903", "401752913", "401752923" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.2, "pa": 23.2, "margin": -5.0, "event_ids": [ "401858429", "401858440", "401858453", "401858464", "401858479" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.625, 23.916666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.9, 22.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.101666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 12.364166666666666, 48.36416666666666 ], "home": [ 4.406666666666666, 40.406666666666666 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401858480", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858480", "teamId": "356", "team": "Illinois Fighting Illini", "side": "away", "opponent": "Michigan State Spartans", "conferenceReportKey": "Illinois", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4795295", "name": "Katin Houser", "position": "QB", "workload": "102/155, 1246 YDS, 11 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/4795295/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4827047", "name": "Aidan Laughery", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 321 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/4827047/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5106299", "name": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "position": "RB", "workload": "50 CAR, 225 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/5106299/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5203604", "name": "Javari Barnett", "position": "RB", "workload": "10 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/5203604/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4923226", "name": "Collin Dixon", "position": "WR", "workload": "40 REC, 546 YDS, 8 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/4923226/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5100582", "name": "Hudson Clement", "position": "WR", "workload": "21 REC, 299 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/5100582/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4689721", "name": "Ty Robinson", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 159 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/4689721/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5154729", "name": "Davin Stoffel", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 38 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/5154729/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5076651", "name": "Christian Abney", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 13 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/5076651/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "id": "5106299", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "50 CAR, 225 YDS, 1 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 46 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Alex Perry", "id": "5084133", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "BJ Thurman", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Jayshon Platt", "id": "4834817", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Valentine's 50 carries exceed Laughery's 45, verifying material committee role despite fewer yards. Laughery 321 yards becomes main redistribution candidate. Receiving loss only three catches and not an independent second deduction.", "confirmed": [ "Ca'Lil Valentine" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 24.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "Primary": [ 20.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "TightenUpON": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Valentine's 50 carries exceed Laughery's 45, verifying material committee role despite fewer yards. Laughery 321 yards becomes main redistribution candidate. Receiving loss only three catches and not an independent second deduction.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5106299", "name": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/373", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 52, "rushingYards": 209, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.019000053405762, "receptions": 5, "receivingYards": 30, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5106299/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 123, "rushingYards": 549, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.4629998207092285, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 27, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5106299/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 50, "rushingYards": 225, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.5, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 46, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5106299/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "356" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4827047", "name": "Aidan Laughery", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/375", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 81, "rushingYards": 522, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.443999767303467, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 30, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4827047/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 62, "rushingYards": 305, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.919000148773193, "receptions": 9, "receivingYards": 54, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4827047/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 45, "rushingYards": 321, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 7.099999904632568, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 20, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4827047/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "356" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5203604", "name": "Javari Barnett", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/766", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "356", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5203604/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "356", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5203604/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 10, "rushingYards": 54, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.400000095367432, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5203604/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "356" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4826636", "name": "Jordan Anderson", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/767", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 5, "rushingYards": 10, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4826636/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 7, "rushingYards": 26, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.7139999866485596, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 12, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4826636/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 12, "rushingYards": 49, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.099999904632568, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4826636/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "356" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Javari Barnett", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Javari Barnett", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/356/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858480", "teamId": "127", "team": "Michigan State Spartans", "side": "home", "opponent": "Illinois Fighting Illini", "conferenceReportKey": "Michigan State", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5146670", "name": "Alessio Milivojevic", "position": "QB", "workload": "80/129, 851 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/5146670/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4700135", "name": "Cam Fancher", "position": "QB", "workload": "8/11, 59 YDS, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/4700135/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5086034", "name": "Cam Edwards", "position": "RB", "workload": "64 CAR, 304 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/5086034/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5081332", "name": "Jaziun Patterson", "position": "RB", "workload": "44 CAR, 162 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/5081332/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5258024", "name": "Marvis Parrish", "position": "RB", "workload": "29 CAR, 89 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/5258024/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5260691", "name": "Rodney Bullard Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 206 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/5260691/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4869599", "name": "Chrishon McCray", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 150 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/4869599/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4905609", "name": "Fredrick Moore", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/4905609/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5214448", "name": "Jayden Savoury", "position": "TE", "workload": "17 REC, 179 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/5214448/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4894451", "name": "Brennan Parachek", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 50 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/4894451/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Cam Edwards", "id": "5086034", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "64 CAR, 304 YDS, 3 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "4 REC, 35 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Jay Coyne", "id": "5084950", "position": "FB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Joe Caudill", "id": "5264656", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Darrin Jones Jr.", "id": "5295653", "position": "RB", "status": "doubtful", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Cam Fancher", "id": "4700135", "position": "QB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "8/11, 59 YDS, 1 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "10 CAR, 27 YDS, 1 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Edwards leads 64 carries/304 yards. Patterson 44/162 and Parrish 29/89 make redistribution plausible. QB Fancher is questionable reserve (11 attempts versus Milivojevic 129); this alone does not justify starting-QB -3.", "confirmed": [ "Cam Edwards" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Cam Edwards", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 27.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "Primary": [ 23.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "TightenUpON": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Edwards leads 64 carries/304 yards. Patterson 44/162 and Parrish 29/89 make redistribution plausible. QB Fancher is questionable reserve (11 attempts versus Milivojevic 129); this alone does not justify starting-QB -3.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 27.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5086034", "name": "Cam Edwards", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/358", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 129, "rushingYards": 756, "rushingTD": 7, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.860000133514404, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 148, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5086034/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 199, "rushingYards": 1132, "rushingTD": 14, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.688000202178955, "receptions": 19, "receivingYards": 187, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5086034/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "127", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 64, "rushingYards": 304, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.800000190734863, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 35, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5086034/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "41" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5081332", "name": "Jaziun Patterson", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/362", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2294", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 54, "rushingYards": 235, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.3520002365112305, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 3, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5081332/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2294", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 57, "rushingYards": 299, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.245999813079834, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 9, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5081332/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "127", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 44, "rushingYards": 162, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.700000047683716, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 3, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5081332/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2294" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5258024", "name": "Marvis Parrish", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/363", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "127", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5258024/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "98", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 99, "rushingYards": 511, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.1620001792907715, "receptions": 36, "receivingYards": 203, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5258024/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "127", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 29, "rushingYards": 89, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.0999999046325684, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 15, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5258024/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "127", "98" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Marvis Parrish", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/127/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Fancher eleven attempts versus Milivojevic129; reserve QB, no second QB deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.364166666666666, 23.314999999999998 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 23, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401858480", "matchup": "Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 48.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858480", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.444496+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.663427+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": 100.0, "away_line_price": -120.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 114.0, "away_ml": -135.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": -4.270833333333329, "production_adjusted": 1.7291666666666714, "minimum_all_scenarios": -5.17916666666666, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "directional_buffer": 3.0227272727272805, "scenario_minimum": -2.9772727272727195 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "directional_buffer": 3.0951392150613444, "scenario_minimum": -2.9048607849386556 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 1.7291666666666714, "scenario_minimum": -4.270833333333329 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 1.7291666666666714, "scenario_minimum": -4.270833333333329 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.364166666666666, 23.314999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": -5.17916666666666, "stressed_buffer": -8.17916666666666 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 1.7291666666666714, "stressed_buffer": -1.2708333333333286 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": -1.2708333333333286, "stressed_buffer": -4.270833333333329 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": -1.2708333333333286, "stressed_buffer": -4.270833333333329 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": -4.270833333333329, "stressed_buffer": -7.270833333333329 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 27.364166666666666, 20.314999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": 0.82083333333334, "stressed_buffer": -2.17916666666666 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 27.364166666666666, 23.314999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": -2.17916666666666, "stressed_buffer": -5.17916666666666 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.364166666666666, 20.314999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": -2.17916666666666, "stressed_buffer": -5.17916666666666 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.364166666666666, 23.314999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": -5.17916666666666, "stressed_buffer": -8.17916666666666 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.364166666666666, 23.314999999999998 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.625, 23.916666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.9, 22.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.101666666666667, -0.601666666666667 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Illinois Fighting Illini", "names": [ "Ca'Lil Valentine" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Michigan State Spartans", "names": [ "Cam Edwards" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=East+Lansing&state=MI&site=GRR&textField1=42.736&textField2=-84.4843&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:30:00-04:00", "window": "Increasing clouds, with a high near 75. South southeast wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 23, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401858484", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401858484", "date": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3626", "fullName": "Autzen Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Eugene", "state": "OR", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "26", "away_name": "UCLA Bruins", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2483", "home_name": "Oregon Ducks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Dante Moore", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Jeremiah McClellan", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Joint adverseCumulativeSensitivity", "condition": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "own_delta": -6, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 29.474999999999994 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.750000000000004, 29.474999999999994 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 18.166666666666668, 33.416666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 44.75, 18.75 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 38.166666666666664, 14.833333333333334 ], "current_rates": [ 47.5, 23.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 23.0, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Dante Moore", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Jeremiah McClellan", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Joint adverseCumulativeSensitivity", "condition": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. 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Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "own_delta": -6, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 33.38980096620906 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.705301492326623, 33.38980096620906 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18.5, 39.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.5, 36.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Dante Moore", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Jeremiah McClellan", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Joint adverseCumulativeSensitivity", "condition": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "own_delta": -6, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 33.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 33.64166666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 33.416666666666664, "margin": -15.249999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752800", "401752823", "401752837", "401752851", "401752855", "401752863", "401752879", "401752885", "401752895", "401752900", "401752910", "401752919" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 44.75, "pa": 18.75, "margin": 26.0, "event_ids": [ "401858210", "401858443", "401858458", "401858462" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 38.166666666666664, "pa": 14.833333333333334, "margin": 23.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401752804", "401752824", "401752831", "401752841", "401752854", "401752870", "401752876", "401752886", "401752898", "401752904", "401752911", "401752917" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 47.5, "pa": 23.25, "margin": 24.25, "event_ids": [ "401858433", "401856782", "401858455", "401858469" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 16.5, 35.791666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.0, 33.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.683333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 39.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 36.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UCLA Bruins", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Mikey Matthews", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Mikey Matthews" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401858484", "matchup": "UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "UCLA Bruins", "names": [ "Mikey Matthews" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Oregon Ducks", "names": [ "Dante Moore", "Jeremiah McClellan" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "UCLA Bruins: current report contains 2 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.316666666666666, 39.641666666666666 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 16.5, 35.791666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 34.0, 33.125 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.683333333333333, 5.183333333333334 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 52, "def_drives": 53, "off_points_proxy": 166, "def_points_proxy": 75, "off_plays": 339, "off_yards": 2365, "def_plays": 361, "def_yards": 1785, "early_plays": 253, "early_yards": 1818, "explosive_plays": 37, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858210", "401858443", "401858458", "401858462" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 3.1923076923076925, "def_ppd": 1.4150943396226414, "off_ypp": 6.976401179941003, "def_ypp": 4.944598337950138, "early_down_ypp": 7.1857707509881426 }, "home": { "off_drives": 48, "def_drives": 51, "off_points_proxy": 183, "def_points_proxy": 94, "off_plays": 346, "off_yards": 2260, "def_plays": 344, "def_yards": 1892, "early_plays": 258, "early_yards": 1658, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856782", "401858433", "401858455", "401858469" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 3.8125, "def_ppd": 1.8431372549019607, "off_ypp": 6.531791907514451, "def_ypp": 5.5, "early_down_ypp": 6.426356589147287 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight Partly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 44. Calm wind. Saturday Patchy fog between 9am and 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 59. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph in the afternoon. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Light north northwest wind. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Eugene&state=OR&site=PQR&textField1=44.0522&textField2=-123.086&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UCLA Bruins", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Mikey Matthews", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Mikey Matthews" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858484", "matchup": "UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "UCLA Bruins", "names": [ "Mikey Matthews" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Oregon Ducks", "names": [ "Dante Moore", "Jeremiah McClellan" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/4685565/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/4870921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/4922988/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/5079519/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/5079572/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"position": "RB", "workload": "28 CAR, 155 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/5114332/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4899366", "name": "Semaj Morgan", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 174 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/4899366/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5209464", "name": "Brian Rowe Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 163 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/5209464/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4921306", "name": "Mikey Matthews", "position": "WR", "workload": "4 REC, 88 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/4921306/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4869442", "name": "Brayden Loftin", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 58 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/4869442/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5084910", "name": "Josh Phifer", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 12 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/5084910/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Mikey Matthews", "id": "4921306", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "4 REC, 88 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Jonah Smith", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "UCLA Bruins: current report contains 2 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [ "Mikey Matthews" ], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Mikey Matthews", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Mikey Matthews" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/26/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [ { "name": "Mikey Matthews", "id": "4921306", "status": "out", "reason": "Four catches/88 yards is third WR by yards behind Morgan14 and Rowe11 catches. Retain main-role-if-confirmed sensitivity; low opportunity alone does not settle recent routes.", "condition": "Only if covered/main-role workload is confirmed; OUT is verified but main-role eligibility is conditional", "incumbentHistoryRef": "player-histories.json#/players/266", "candidateReplacements": [ { "id": "4899366", "name": "Semaj Morgan", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 174 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/4899366/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/272" }, { "id": "5209464", "name": "Brian Rowe Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 163 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/5209464/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/273" } ], "statisticalPointEffect": null, "isolatedHumanDeduction": -3, "jointWithConfirmedDeduction": -3, "overlap": "Shared passing-drive/target uncertainty retained; no automatic extra joint deduction.", "scores": { "Classic": { "isolated": [ 19.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 19.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ] }, "Primary": { "isolated": [ 15.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 15.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ] }, "TightenUpON": { "isolated": [ 18.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 18.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ] }, "TightenUpOFF": { "isolated": [ 18.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 18.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ] } } } ] } }, { "eventId": "401858484", "teamId": "2483", "team": "Oregon Ducks", "side": "home", "opponent": "UCLA Bruins", "conferenceReportKey": "Oregon", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4870921", "name": "Dante Moore", "position": "QB", "workload": "69/99, 926 YDS, 9 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/4870921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079572", "name": "Dylan Raiola", "position": "QB", "workload": "30/36, 413 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/5079572/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5141423", "name": "Jordon Davison", "position": "RB", "workload": "49 CAR, 260 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/5141423/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141499", "name": "Dierre Hill Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "42 CAR, 184 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/5141499/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5198506", "name": "Brandon Smith", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/5198506/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4685565", "name": "Evan Stewart", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 278 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/4685565/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141586", "name": "Dakorien Moore", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 234 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/5141586/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079519", "name": "Jeremiah McClellan", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 170 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/5079519/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4922988", "name": "Jamari Johnson", "position": "TE", "workload": "11 REC, 176 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/4922988/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5159026", "name": "Kendre Harrison", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/5159026/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Jeremiah McClellan", "id": "5079519", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "7 REC, 170 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Dante Moore", "id": "4870921", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "69/99, 926 YDS, 9 TD" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "10 CAR, -7 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Simeon Price", "id": "4684421", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Jack Ressler", "id": "5126533", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "confirmed": [ "Dante Moore", "Jeremiah McClellan" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Dante Moore", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "Primary": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "TightenUpON": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] } }, { "name": "Jeremiah McClellan", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "Primary": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "TightenUpON": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": -6 }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "4870921", "name": "Dante Moore", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/253", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 7, "passingYards": 49, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 6, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4870921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 313, "passingYards": 2733, "passingTD": 24, "interceptions": 6, "sacks": 12, "completionPct": 72.52400207519531, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8.732000350952148, "rushAttempts": 57, "rushingYards": 191, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.3510000705718994, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4870921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 99, "passingYards": 926, "passingTD": 9, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 6, "completionPct": 69.69999694824219, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 9.399999618530273, "rushAttempts": 10, "rushingYards": -7, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -0.699999988079071, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4870921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2483" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079519", "name": "Jeremiah McClellan", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/252", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 24, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079519/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 25, "receivingYards": 397, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079519/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 170, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079519/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2483" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079572", "name": "Dylan Raiola", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/256", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "158", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 380, "passingYards": 2595, "passingTD": 12, "interceptions": 10, "sacks": 26, "completionPct": 66.5790023803711, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.828999996185303, "rushAttempts": 47, "rushingYards": -68, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -1.4470000267028809, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079572/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "158", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 250, "passingYards": 2000, "passingTD": 18, "interceptions": 6, "sacks": 27, "completionPct": 72.4000015258789, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8, "rushAttempts": 46, "rushingYards": -87, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -1.8910000324249268, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079572/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 36, "passingYards": 413, "passingTD": 5, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 1, "completionPct": 83.30000305175781, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 11.5, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": -9, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -9, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079572/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "158" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4685565", "name": "Evan Stewart", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/261", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 13, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 48, "receivingYards": 613, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4685565/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2483", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4685565/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": -2, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -2, "receptions": 22, "receivingYards": 278, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4685565/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2483" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5141586", "name": "Dakorien Moore", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/262", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2483", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141586/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 49, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 12.25, "receptions": 28, "receivingYards": 443, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141586/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 14, "receivingYards": 234, "receivingTD": 4, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141586/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2483" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4922988", "name": "Jamari Johnson", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/263", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "97", "status": "available", "games": 7, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 158, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4922988/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 23, "receivingYards": 320, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4922988/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 11, "receivingYards": 176, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4922988/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "97", "2483" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Evan Stewart", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Dakorien Moore", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2483/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "https://goducks.com/news/2026/10/6/football-ducks-host-bruins-in-top-25-battle" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.316666666666666, 39.641666666666666 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 16.5, 35.791666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 34.0, 33.125 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.683333333333333, 5.183333333333334 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks", "market": { "id": "401858484", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858484", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.576537+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.821102+00:00", "home_line": -10.5, "away_line": 10.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -410.0, "away_ml": 320.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -10.5, "average_total": 57.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 12.72499999999999, "combined": 58.224999999999994, "spread_buffer": 2.2249999999999908, "total_difference": 0.7249999999999943 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 9.72499999999999, "combined": 55.224999999999994, "spread_buffer": -0.7750000000000092, "total_difference": -2.2750000000000057 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 20.684499473882436, "combined": 58.09510245853568, "spread_buffer": 10.184499473882436, "total_difference": 0.5951024585356777 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 17.684499473882436, "combined": 55.09510245853568, "spread_buffer": 7.184499473882436, "total_difference": -2.4048975414643223 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 18.074999999999992, "combined": 61.20833333333333, "spread_buffer": 7.574999999999992, "total_difference": 3.7083333333333286 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 15.074999999999992, "combined": 58.20833333333333, "spread_buffer": 4.574999999999992, "total_difference": 0.7083333333333286 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401858484", "matchup": "UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Oregon Ducks", "line": -10.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858484", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.576537+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.821102+00:00", "home_line": -10.5, "away_line": 10.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -410.0, "away_ml": 320.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 7.574999999999992, "production_adjusted": 4.574999999999992, "minimum_all_scenarios": -7.174999999999994, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "directional_buffer": -0.7750000000000092, "scenario_minimum": -3.7750000000000092 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "directional_buffer": 7.184499473882436, "scenario_minimum": 4.184499473882436 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 4.574999999999992, "scenario_minimum": 1.5749999999999922 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 4.574999999999992, "scenario_minimum": 1.5749999999999922 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.316666666666666, 33.64166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": -7.174999999999994, "stressed_buffer": -10.174999999999994 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 21.566666666666666, 33.64166666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 1.5749999999999922, "stressed_buffer": -1.4250000000000078 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 4.574999999999992, "stressed_buffer": 1.5749999999999922 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 7.574999999999992, "stressed_buffer": 4.574999999999992 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.316666666666666, 33.64166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": -7.174999999999994, "stressed_buffer": -10.174999999999994 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.316666666666666, 36.64166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": -4.174999999999994, "stressed_buffer": -7.174999999999994 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.316666666666666, 39.64166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": -1.1749999999999936, "stressed_buffer": -4.174999999999994 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.316666666666666, 39.641666666666666 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Charlotte 49ers", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "North Texas Mean Green", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401862796", "matchup": "Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean Green", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Charlotte 49ers", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "North Texas Mean Green", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Charlotte 49ers: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | North Texas Mean Green: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. 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Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Clear, with a low around 66. South southeast wind around 5 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=33.2083&lon=-97.1387", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Charlotte 49ers", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "North Texas Mean Green", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401862796", "matchup": "Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean Green", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Charlotte 49ers", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "North Texas Mean Green", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. 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"current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0, 33.07948717948718 ], "home": [ 31.36025641025641, 67.36025641025641 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401862796", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401862796", "teamId": "2429", "team": "Charlotte 49ers", "side": "away", "opponent": "North Texas Mean Green", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5089540", "name": "Cole Gonzales", "position": "QB", "workload": "79/127, 802 YDS, 3 TD, 7 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/5089540/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4801306", "name": "Conner Harrell", "position": "QB", "workload": "13/19, 93 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/4801306/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5148741", "name": "Khamani Alexander", "position": "RB", "workload": "44 CAR, 201 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/5148741/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4879655", "name": "Henry Rutledge", "position": "RB", "workload": "23 CAR, 170 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/4879655/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5089860", "name": "Chance Williams", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 116 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/5089860/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5153730", "name": "Jaden Barnes", "position": "WR", "workload": "26 REC, 249 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/5153730/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5156879", "name": "Jaylen Hampton", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 224 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/5156879/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5228760", "name": "Derrick Eley", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 189 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/5228760/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5151037", "name": "Jason Jeffares", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 44 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/5151037/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4606685", "name": "Logan Mauldin", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 31 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/4606685/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Charlotte 49ers: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2429/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401862796", "teamId": "249", "team": "North Texas Mean Green", "side": "home", "opponent": "Charlotte 49ers", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4801307", "name": "Tayven Jackson", "position": "QB", "workload": "119/167, 1519 YDS, 10 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/4801307/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5215310", "name": "Chaston Ditta", "position": "QB", "workload": "10/11, 126 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/5215310/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4911971", "name": "Jahiem White", "position": "RB", "workload": "84 CAR, 582 YDS, 8 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/4911971/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5238020", "name": "Brendon Haygood", "position": "RB", "workload": "29 CAR, 114 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/5238020/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5227742", "name": "Nick Osho", "position": "RB", "workload": "11 CAR, 41 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/5227742/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5122082", "name": "Justin Stevenson", "position": "WR", "workload": "24 REC, 331 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/5122082/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5125905", "name": "Corri Milliner", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 325 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/5125905/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5108225", "name": "Josiah Martin", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 161 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/5108225/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4827049", "name": "Max Reese", "position": "TE", "workload": "14 REC, 211 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/4827049/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295066", "name": "Brec Long", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 87 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/5295066/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "North Texas Mean Green: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/249/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 17.815384615384616, 49.36025641025641 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 19.628205128205128, 40.55128205128205 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.1, 40.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -7.2846153846153845, 8.784615384615385 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean Green", "market": { "id": "401862796", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862796", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.597861+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.816559+00:00", "home_line": -28.5, "away_line": 28.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 58.5, "under_line": 58.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -4500.0, "away_ml": 1700.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -28.5, "average_total": 58.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 19.958041958041953, "combined": 62.68881118881118, "spread_buffer": -8.541958041958047, "total_difference": 4.188811188811179 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 19.958041958041953, "combined": 62.68881118881118, "spread_buffer": -8.541958041958047, "total_difference": 4.188811188811179 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 29.517035736188987, "combined": 64.90121670859524, "spread_buffer": 1.017035736188987, "total_difference": 6.401216708595243 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 29.517035736188987, "combined": 64.90121670859524, "spread_buffer": 1.017035736188987, "total_difference": 6.401216708595243 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 34.28076923076923, "combined": 64.43974358974359, "spread_buffer": 5.780769230769231, "total_difference": 5.9397435897435855 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 34.28076923076923, "combined": 64.43974358974359, "spread_buffer": 5.780769230769231, "total_difference": 5.9397435897435855 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401862796", "matchup": "Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean Green", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "North Texas Mean Green", "line": -28.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862796", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.597861+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.816559+00:00", "home_line": -28.5, "away_line": 28.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 58.5, "under_line": 58.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -4500.0, "away_ml": 1700.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 5.780769230769231, "production_adjusted": 5.780769230769231, "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.0448717948717956, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "directional_buffer": -8.541958041958047, "scenario_minimum": -8.541958041958047 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "directional_buffer": 1.017035736188987, "scenario_minimum": 1.017035736188987 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "directional_buffer": 5.780769230769231, "scenario_minimum": 5.780769230769231 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "directional_buffer": 5.780769230769231, "scenario_minimum": 5.780769230769231 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 17.815384615384616, 49.36025641025641 ], "directional_buffer": 3.0448717948717956, "stressed_buffer": 0.0448717948717956 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "directional_buffer": 5.780769230769231, "stressed_buffer": 2.7807692307692307 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 17.815384615384616, 49.36025641025641 ], "directional_buffer": 3.0448717948717956, "stressed_buffer": 0.0448717948717956 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 17.815384615384616, 49.36025641025641 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 28.916666666666668, "margin": -5.75, "event_ids": [ "401762457", "401757229", "401762465", "401756900", "401762474", "401762478", "401762486", "401762495", "401762505", "401752945", "401762512", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 6.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401856772", "401862707", "401862775", "401856697", "401862786" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.166666666666668, "pa": 26.0, "margin": 5.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401762434", "401762458", "401762465", "401762473", "401760381", "401762484", "401762493", "401762499", "401757166", "401762510", "401762516", "401762521" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 25.25, "pa": 22.75, "margin": 2.5, "event_ids": [ "401862696", "401862703", "401862778", "401862791" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.583333333333336, 30.041666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.275, 23.225 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.6816666666666666, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 29.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 29.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 28.916666666666668, "margin": -5.75, "event_ids": [ "401762457", "401757229", "401762465", "401756900", "401762474", "401762478", "401762486", "401762495", "401762505", "401752945", "401762512", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 6.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401856772", "401862707", "401862775", "401856697", "401862786" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.166666666666668, "pa": 26.0, "margin": 5.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401762434", "401762458", "401762465", "401762473", "401760381", "401762484", "401762493", "401762499", "401757166", "401762510", "401762516", "401762521" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 25.25, "pa": 22.75, "margin": 2.5, "event_ids": [ "401862696", "401862703", "401862778", "401862791" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.583333333333336, 30.041666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.275, 23.225 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.6816666666666666, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 29.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 29.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Navy Midshipmen", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401862799", "matchup": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy Midshipmen", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Navy Midshipmen", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Navy Midshipmen: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.593333333333334, 28.814999999999998 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.583333333333336, 30.041666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.275, 23.225 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.6816666666666666, 2.1816666666666666 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 65, "off_points_proxy": 135, "def_points_proxy": 112, "off_plays": 427, "off_yards": 2148, "def_plays": 479, "def_yards": 2674, "early_plays": 294, "early_yards": 1498, "explosive_plays": 25, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856697", "401856772", "401862707", "401862775", "401862786" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.2131147540983607, "def_ppd": 1.7230769230769232, "off_ypp": 5.030444964871195, "def_ypp": 5.582463465553236, "early_down_ypp": 5.095238095238095 }, "home": { "off_drives": 43, "def_drives": 43, "off_points_proxy": 100, "def_points_proxy": 95, "off_plays": 317, "off_yards": 1904, "def_plays": 317, "def_yards": 1826, "early_plays": 228, "early_yards": 1362, "explosive_plays": 24, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862696", "401862703", "401862778", "401862791" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.3255813953488373, "def_ppd": 2.2093023255813953, "off_ypp": 6.006309148264984, "def_ypp": 5.760252365930599, "early_down_ypp": 5.973684210526316 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Light northeast wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Tonight Showers likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Annapolis&state=MD&site=LWX&textField1=38.9716&textField2=-76.503&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Navy Midshipmen", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401862799", "matchup": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy Midshipmen", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Navy Midshipmen", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/4429804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/4565355/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/4685699/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/4710860/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/4920162/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5158343/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5158373/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5212655/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5220473/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5220476/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5295391/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5391321/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5391358/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Annapolis&state=MD&site=LWX&textField1=38.9716&textField2=-76.503&e=1", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/202/roster?season=2026", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2426/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview" ], "tu": { "id": "401862799", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401862799", "date": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3852", "fullName": "Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Annapolis", "state": "MD", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "202", "away_name": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2426", "home_name": "Navy Midshipmen", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 28.916666666666668, "margin": -5.75, "event_ids": [ "401762457", "401757229", "401762465", "401756900", "401762474", "401762478", "401762486", "401762495", "401762505", "401752945", "401762512", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 6.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401856772", "401862707", "401862775", "401856697", "401862786" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.166666666666668, "pa": 26.0, "margin": 5.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401762434", "401762458", "401762465", "401762473", "401760381", "401762484", "401762493", "401762499", "401757166", "401762510", "401762516", "401762521" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 25.25, "pa": 22.75, "margin": 2.5, "event_ids": [ "401862696", "401862703", "401862778", "401862791" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.583333333333336, 30.041666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.275, 23.225 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.6816666666666666, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 6.247500000000002, 42.2475 ], "home": [ 10.814999999999998, 46.815 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401862799", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401862799", "teamId": "202", "team": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane", "side": "away", "opponent": "Navy Midshipmen", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5224011", "name": "Baylor Hayes", "position": "QB", "workload": "58/96, 564 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/5224011/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4565355", "name": "Dexter Williams II", "position": "QB", "workload": "34/59, 340 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/4565355/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4685699", "name": "Damari Alston", "position": "RB", "workload": "68 CAR, 292 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/4685699/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295930", "name": "Trequan Jones", "position": "RB", "workload": "35 CAR, 221 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/5295930/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4920162", "name": "Seth Davis", "position": "RB", "workload": "9 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/4920162/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4710860", "name": "Oran Singleton Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "26 REC, 306 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/4710860/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4429804", "name": "Jimmy Calloway", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 123 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/4429804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5229589", "name": "Javon Ross", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/5229589/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5296086", "name": "Chris Gacayan II", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 55 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/5296086/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5217701", "name": "Jackson Shockley", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 22 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/5217701/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/202/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401862799", "teamId": "2426", "team": "Navy Midshipmen", "side": "home", "opponent": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5220473", "name": "Jackson Gutierrez", "position": "QB", "workload": "17/40, 344 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5220473/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5158343", "name": "Braxton Woodson", "position": "QB", "workload": "7/20, 71 YDS, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5158343/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5158373", "name": "Vic Listorti", "position": "RB", "workload": "28 CAR, 175 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5158373/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5391358", "name": "Jacob Williams", "position": "RB", "workload": "5 CAR, 34 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5391358/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295391", "name": "Christian Cromer", "position": "RB", "workload": "5 CAR, 13 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5295391/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5391321", "name": "Truman Brasfield", "position": "WR", "workload": "2 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5391321/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5158341", "name": "Luke Hutchison", "position": "WR", "workload": "4 REC, 75 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5158341/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5220476", "name": "Charles Robinson", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5220476/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5212655", "name": "Jordan Collins", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5212655/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Navy Midshipmen: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2426/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.593333333333334, 28.814999999999998 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.583333333333336, 30.041666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.275, 23.225 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.6816666666666666, 2.1816666666666666 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy Midshipmen", "market": { "id": "401862799", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862799", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.611870+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.831174+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -122.0, "away_ml": 102.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 48.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 3.6181818181818173, "combined": 52.090909090909086, "spread_buffer": 2.1181818181818173, "total_difference": 3.5909090909090864 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 3.6181818181818173, "combined": 52.090909090909086, "spread_buffer": 2.1181818181818173, "total_difference": 3.5909090909090864 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 14.53823560507103, "combined": 51.28738562383818, "spread_buffer": 13.03823560507103, "total_difference": 2.7873856238381833 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 14.53823560507103, "combined": 51.28738562383818, "spread_buffer": 13.03823560507103, "total_difference": 2.7873856238381833 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 4.5674999999999955, "combined": 53.0625, "spread_buffer": 3.0674999999999955, "total_difference": 4.5625 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 4.5674999999999955, "combined": 53.0625, "spread_buffer": 3.0674999999999955, "total_difference": 4.5625 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401862799", "matchup": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy Midshipmen", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Navy Midshipmen", "line": -1.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862799", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.611870+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.831174+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -122.0, "away_ml": 102.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 3.0674999999999955, "production_adjusted": 3.0674999999999955, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.721666666666664, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "directional_buffer": 2.1181818181818173, "scenario_minimum": 2.1181818181818173 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "directional_buffer": 13.03823560507103, "scenario_minimum": 13.03823560507103 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": 3.0674999999999955, "scenario_minimum": 3.0674999999999955 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": 3.0674999999999955, "scenario_minimum": 3.0674999999999955 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 24.593333333333334, 28.814999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": 2.721666666666664, "stressed_buffer": -0.278333333333336 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": 3.0674999999999955, "stressed_buffer": 0.06749999999999545 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 24.593333333333334, 28.814999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": 2.721666666666664, "stressed_buffer": -0.278333333333336 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.593333333333334, 28.814999999999998 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Light northeast wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Showers likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Eastern Michigan Eagles", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Akron Zips", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401866435", "matchup": "Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron Zips", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Eastern Michigan Eagles", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Akron Zips", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Eastern Michigan Eagles: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Akron Zips: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 27.943333333333335, 26.373333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.75, 26.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.883333333333333, 22.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.126666666666667, 0.3733333333333331 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 65, "def_drives": 64, "off_points_proxy": 127, "def_points_proxy": 130, "off_plays": 519, "off_yards": 2568, "def_plays": 480, "def_yards": 2705, "early_plays": 356, "early_yards": 1611, "explosive_plays": 34, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858440", "401858460", "401864495", "401866408", "401866427", "401866433" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.9538461538461538, "def_ppd": 2.03125, "off_ypp": 4.9479768786127165, "def_ypp": 5.635416666666667, "early_down_ypp": 4.525280898876405 }, "home": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 96, "def_points_proxy": 161, "off_plays": 428, "off_yards": 2485, "def_plays": 387, "def_yards": 2575, "early_plays": 311, "early_yards": 1744, "explosive_plays": 35, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858204", "401858451", "401864512", "401866412", "401866430" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.6551724137931034, "def_ppd": 2.7758620689655173, "off_ypp": 5.80607476635514, "def_ypp": 6.6537467700258395, "early_down_ypp": 5.607717041800643 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Southeast wind 5 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 5am. Low around 55. Southeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Akron&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.0804&textField2=-81.5215&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Eastern Michigan Eagles", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Akron Zips", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866435", "matchup": "Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron Zips", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Eastern Michigan Eagles", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Akron Zips", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/4871050/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5076653/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5084582/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5110019/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5146708/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"5211694", "name": "Harold Mack", "position": "WR", "workload": "23 REC, 264 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/athletes/5211694/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295525", "name": "Benson Prosper", "position": "WR", "workload": "24 REC, 251 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/athletes/5295525/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5083205", "name": "Nick Devereaux", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 143 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/athletes/5083205/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5295532", "name": "Joshua Long", "position": "TE", "workload": "22 REC, 168 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/athletes/5295532/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4918453", "name": "Tanner Lemaster", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 47 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/athletes/4918453/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Eastern Michigan Eagles: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2199/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401866435", "teamId": "2006", "team": "Akron Zips", "side": "home", "opponent": "Eastern Michigan Eagles", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5146903", "name": "Brayden Roggow", "position": "QB", "workload": "53/94, 605 YDS, 3 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5146903/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5198324", "name": "Cibastian Broughton", "position": "QB", "workload": "53/66, 380 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5198324/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5084582", "name": "Jordan Gant", "position": "RB", "workload": "62 CAR, 293 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5084582/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5146708", "name": "Sean Patrick", "position": "RB", "workload": "35 CAR, 195 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5146708/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4871050", "name": "Marquese Williams", "position": "RB", "workload": "12 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/4871050/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5193341", "name": "Marcel Williams", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 201 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5193341/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5110019", "name": "Kyan Mason", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 143 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5110019/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5076653", "name": "Brandon Hills", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5076653/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5397589", "name": "Elijah Alexander", "position": "TE", "workload": "11 REC, 87 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5397589/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5157315", "name": "Conner Cravaack", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 38 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5157315/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Akron Zips: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2006/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 27.943333333333335, 26.373333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.75, 26.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.883333333333333, 22.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.126666666666667, 0.3733333333333331 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron Zips", "market": { "id": "401866435", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866435", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.656846+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.905828+00:00", "home_line": 5.5, "away_line": -5.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 180.0, "away_ml": -218.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 5.5, "average_total": 51.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -1.1022727272727266, "combined": 50.75, "spread_buffer": 4.397727272727273, "total_difference": -0.75 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -1.1022727272727266, "combined": 50.75, "spread_buffer": 4.397727272727273, "total_difference": -0.75 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 7.625770185670014, "combined": 52.61738250214786, "spread_buffer": 13.125770185670014, "total_difference": 1.117382502147862 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 7.625770185670014, "combined": 52.61738250214786, "spread_buffer": 13.125770185670014, "total_difference": 1.117382502147862 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -3.5700000000000003, "combined": 52.31666666666667, "spread_buffer": 1.9299999999999997, "total_difference": 0.81666666666667 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -3.5700000000000003, "combined": 52.31666666666667, "spread_buffer": 1.9299999999999997, "total_difference": 0.81666666666667 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401866435", "matchup": "Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron Zips", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Akron Zips", "line": 5.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866435", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.656846+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.905828+00:00", "home_line": 5.5, "away_line": -5.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 180.0, "away_ml": -218.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 1.9299999999999997, "production_adjusted": 1.9299999999999997, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.9299999999999997, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "directional_buffer": 4.397727272727273, "scenario_minimum": 4.397727272727273 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "directional_buffer": 13.125770185670014, "scenario_minimum": 13.125770185670014 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 1.9299999999999997, "scenario_minimum": 1.9299999999999997 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 1.9299999999999997, "scenario_minimum": 1.9299999999999997 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 1.9299999999999997, "stressed_buffer": -1.0700000000000003 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 1.9299999999999997, "stressed_buffer": -1.0700000000000003 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 27.943333333333335, 26.373333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 3.9299999999999997, "stressed_buffer": 0.9299999999999997 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 27.943333333333335, 26.373333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.75, 26.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.883333333333333, 22.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.126666666666667, 0.3733333333333331 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Eastern Michigan Eagles", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Akron Zips", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Akron&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.0804&textField2=-81.5215&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Akron&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.0804&textField2=-81.5215&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:30:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Southeast wind 5 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 5am. Low around 55. Southeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. 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Southeast wind 5 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 5am. Low around 55. Southeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Buffalo Bulls", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401866437", "matchup": "Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Buffalo Bulls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Buffalo Bulls: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Toledo Rockets: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.40833333333333, 38.1125 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 18.083333333333332, 27.541666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.0, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.591666666666667, 6.091666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 65, "def_drives": 64, "off_points_proxy": 102, "def_points_proxy": 147, "off_plays": 473, "off_yards": 2284, "def_plays": 425, "def_yards": 2427, "early_plays": 326, "early_yards": 1372, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858456", "401866409", "401866414", "401866426", "401866432" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.5692307692307692, "def_ppd": 2.296875, "off_ypp": 4.828752642706131, "def_ypp": 5.710588235294118, "early_down_ypp": 4.208588957055214 }, "home": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 63, "off_points_proxy": 197, "def_points_proxy": 123, "off_plays": 434, "off_yards": 2891, "def_plays": 464, "def_yards": 2632, "early_plays": 311, "early_yards": 2094, "explosive_plays": 44, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858429", "401860893", "401862774", "401866419", "401866431" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.283333333333333, "def_ppd": 1.9523809523809523, "off_ypp": 6.661290322580645, "def_ypp": 5.672413793103448, "early_down_ypp": 6.733118971061093 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Southeast wind 3 to 8 mph. Tonight A chance of rain and thunderstorms, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Low around 58. Southeast wind around 7 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Toledo&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.6639&textField2=-83.5816&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Buffalo Bulls", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866437", "matchup": "Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Buffalo Bulls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/4869601/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5084704/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5095138/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5151369/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5194659/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5328086/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5151369", "name": "Messiah Burch", "position": "RB", "workload": "73 CAR, 352 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5151369/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5216690", "name": "Nino Hill", "position": "RB", "workload": "41 CAR, 124 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5216690/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5194659", "name": "James McNeil Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "23 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5194659/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4869601", "name": "Chance Morrow", "position": "WR", "workload": "32 REC, 397 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/4869601/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5084704", "name": "Patrick Clacks III", "position": "WR", "workload": "4 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5084704/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5387611", "name": "Jaylen Andrews", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 77 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5387611/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5387612", "name": "Clint Walker", "position": "TE", "workload": "11 REC, 82 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5387612/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5095138", "name": "Trevor Wilson", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 52 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5095138/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Buffalo Bulls: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2084/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401866437", "teamId": "2649", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "side": "home", "opponent": "Buffalo Bulls", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5082330", "name": "John Alan Richter", "position": "QB", "workload": "98/153, 1362 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5082330/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5200190", "name": "Walter Moses", "position": "QB", "workload": "1/1, 40 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5200190/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5092811", "name": "CJ Miller", "position": "RB", "workload": "54 CAR, 346 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5092811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5078063", "name": "Connor Walendzak", "position": "RB", "workload": "57 CAR, 336 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5078063/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5164730", "name": "Autavius Ison", "position": "RB", "workload": "39 CAR, 175 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5164730/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5153399", "name": "Adjatay Dabbs", "position": "WR", "workload": "25 REC, 367 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5153399/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5162858", "name": "Bryson Hammer", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 298 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5162858/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5225646", "name": "Rico Bond", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 192 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5225646/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5220133", "name": "Sam Lee", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 78 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5220133/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4882061", "name": "Jacob Newell", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 36 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/4882061/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Toledo Rockets: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2649/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.40833333333333, 38.1125 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 18.083333333333332, 27.541666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.0, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.591666666666667, 6.091666666666667 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets", "market": { "id": "401866437", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866437", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.657854+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.864168+00:00", "home_line": -18.5, "away_line": 18.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 55.5, "under_line": 55.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -1100.0, "away_ml": 700.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -18.5, "average_total": 55.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 12.795454545454543, "combined": 51.93181818181817, "spread_buffer": -5.704545454545457, "total_difference": -3.5681818181818272 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 12.795454545454543, "combined": 51.93181818181817, "spread_buffer": -5.704545454545457, "total_difference": -3.5681818181818272 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 18.993835896383576, "combined": 54.65619827156448, "spread_buffer": 0.49383589638357606, "total_difference": -0.8438017284355226 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 18.993835896383576, "combined": 54.65619827156448, "spread_buffer": 0.49383589638357606, "total_difference": -0.8438017284355226 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 22.1625, "combined": 54.06249999999999, "spread_buffer": 3.6625000000000014, "total_difference": -1.437500000000007 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 22.1625, "combined": 54.06249999999999, "spread_buffer": 3.6625000000000014, "total_difference": -1.437500000000007 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401866437", "matchup": "Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "line": -18.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866437", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.657854+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.864168+00:00", "home_line": -18.5, "away_line": 18.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 55.5, "under_line": 55.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -1100.0, "away_ml": 700.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 3.6625000000000014, "production_adjusted": 3.6625000000000014, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.2041666666666657, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "directional_buffer": -5.704545454545457, "scenario_minimum": -5.704545454545457 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "directional_buffer": 0.49383589638357606, "scenario_minimum": 0.49383589638357606 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6625000000000014, "scenario_minimum": 3.6625000000000014 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6625000000000014, "scenario_minimum": 3.6625000000000014 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.40833333333333, 38.1125 ], "directional_buffer": 1.2041666666666657, "stressed_buffer": -1.7958333333333343 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6625000000000014, "stressed_buffer": 0.6625000000000014 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.40833333333333, 38.1125 ], "directional_buffer": 1.2041666666666657, "stressed_buffer": -1.7958333333333343 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.40833333333333, 38.1125 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 18.083333333333332, 27.541666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.0, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.591666666666667, 6.091666666666667 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Buffalo Bulls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Toledo&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.6639&textField2=-83.5816&e=1" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Toledo&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.6639&textField2=-83.5816&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:30:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Southeast wind 3 to 8 mph. A chance of rain and thunderstorms, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Low around 58. Southeast wind around 7 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. 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Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 18.083333333333332, 27.541666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.0, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.591666666666667, 6.091666666666667 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Buffalo Bulls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Toledo&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.6639&textField2=-83.5816&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Toledo&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.6639&textField2=-83.5816&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:30:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Southeast wind 3 to 8 mph. A chance of rain and thunderstorms, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Low around 58. Southeast wind around 7 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 22, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Buffalo Bulls", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 22.1625, "combined": 54.06249999999999, "spread_buffer": 3.6625000000000014, "total_difference": -1.437500000000007 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 22.1625, "combined": 54.06249999999999, "spread_buffer": 3.6625000000000014, "total_difference": -1.437500000000007 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401866437", "matchup": "Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "line": -18.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866437", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.657854+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.864168+00:00", "home_line": -18.5, "away_line": 18.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 55.5, "under_line": 55.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -1100.0, "away_ml": 700.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 3.6625000000000014, "production_adjusted": 3.6625000000000014, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.2041666666666657, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "directional_buffer": -5.704545454545457, "scenario_minimum": -5.704545454545457 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "directional_buffer": 0.49383589638357606, "scenario_minimum": 0.49383589638357606 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6625000000000014, "scenario_minimum": 3.6625000000000014 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6625000000000014, "scenario_minimum": 3.6625000000000014 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.40833333333333, 38.1125 ], "directional_buffer": 1.2041666666666657, "stressed_buffer": -1.7958333333333343 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6625000000000014, "stressed_buffer": 0.6625000000000014 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.40833333333333, 38.1125 ], "directional_buffer": 1.2041666666666657, "stressed_buffer": -1.7958333333333343 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.40833333333333, 38.1125 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 18.083333333333332, 27.541666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.0, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.591666666666667, 6.091666666666667 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Buffalo Bulls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Toledo&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.6639&textField2=-83.5816&e=1" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Toledo&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.6639&textField2=-83.5816&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:30:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Southeast wind 3 to 8 mph. A chance of rain and thunderstorms, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Low around 58. Southeast wind around 7 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 22, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Buffalo Bulls", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401866437", "matchup": "Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 55.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866437", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.657854+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.864168+00:00", "home_line": -18.5, "away_line": 18.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 55.5, "under_line": 55.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -1100.0, "away_ml": 700.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 1.437500000000007, "production_adjusted": 1.437500000000007, "minimum_all_scenarios": -1.0208333333333286, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "directional_buffer": 3.5681818181818272, "scenario_minimum": 3.5681818181818272 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8438017284355226, "scenario_minimum": 0.8438017284355226 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "directional_buffer": 1.437500000000007, "scenario_minimum": 1.437500000000007 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "directional_buffer": 1.437500000000007, "scenario_minimum": 1.437500000000007 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.40833333333333, 38.1125 ], "directional_buffer": -1.0208333333333286, "stressed_buffer": -4.020833333333329 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "directional_buffer": 1.437500000000007, "stressed_buffer": -1.562499999999993 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.40833333333333, 38.1125 ], "directional_buffer": -1.0208333333333286, "stressed_buffer": -4.020833333333329 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.40833333333333, 38.1125 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 18.083333333333332, 27.541666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.0, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.591666666666667, 6.091666666666667 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Buffalo Bulls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Toledo&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.6639&textField2=-83.5816&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Toledo&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.6639&textField2=-83.5816&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:30:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Southeast wind 3 to 8 mph. A chance of rain and thunderstorms, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Low around 58. Southeast wind around 7 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 22, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Buffalo Bulls", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401866438", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401866438", "date": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3876", "fullName": "Peden Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Athens", "state": "OH", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2117", "away_name": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "195", "home_name": "Ohio Bobcats", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.833333333333332, 22.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 17.6, 25.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.666666666666668, 22.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 26.8, 26.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22.0, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.0, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ohio Bobcats", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401866438", "matchup": "Central Michigan Chippewas at Ohio Bobcats", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Ohio Bobcats", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Central Michigan Chippewas: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Ohio Bobcats: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 22.136666666666667, 28.621666666666666 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.375, 25.666666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 22.200000000000003, 26.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.2383333333333333, 2.7383333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 53, "def_drives": 52, "off_points_proxy": 90, "def_points_proxy": 122, "off_plays": 383, "off_yards": 1810, "def_plays": 414, "def_yards": 2581, "early_plays": 263, "early_yards": 1096, "explosive_plays": 22, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858238", "401864498", "401864508", "401866415", "401866430" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.6981132075471699, "def_ppd": 2.3461538461538463, "off_ypp": 4.725848563968668, "def_ypp": 6.234299516908212, "early_down_ypp": 4.167300380228137 }, "home": { "off_drives": 53, "def_drives": 53, "off_points_proxy": 123, "def_points_proxy": 141, "off_plays": 406, "off_yards": 2464, "def_plays": 403, "def_yards": 2224, "early_plays": 288, "early_yards": 1622, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858430", "401866418", "401866423", "401866428", "401866434" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.3207547169811322, "def_ppd": 2.660377358490566, "off_ypp": 6.068965517241379, "def_ypp": 5.518610421836228, "early_down_ypp": 5.631944444444445 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after midnight. Low around 56. East wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Athens&state=OH&site=RLX&textField1=39.3242&textField2=-82.0961&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ohio Bobcats", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866438", "matchup": "Central Michigan Chippewas at Ohio Bobcats", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Ohio Bobcats", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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"4869694", "name": "Langston Lewis", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/athletes/4869694/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5221139", "name": "Shawn Foster II", "position": "WR", "workload": "5 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/athletes/5221139/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295488", "name": "Justin Ruffin Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 57 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/athletes/5295488/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5387646", "name": "Myles Peters", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 14 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/athletes/5387646/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4876695", "name": "Jaden Allen", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 10 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/athletes/4876695/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Central Michigan Chippewas: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2117/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401866438", "teamId": "195", "team": "Ohio Bobcats", "side": "home", "opponent": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5171031", "name": "Matt Vezza", "position": "QB", "workload": "40/58, 439 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5171031/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5228762", "name": "Nick Poulos", "position": "QB", "workload": "16/36, 180 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5228762/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4873234", "name": "Victor Rosa", "position": "RB", "workload": "56 CAR, 219 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/4873234/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5167252", "name": "Duncan Brune", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 184 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5167252/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5236380", "name": "Irving Brown", "position": "RB", "workload": "10 CAR, 107 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5236380/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5228764", "name": "Riley Neer", "position": "WR", "workload": "23 REC, 338 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5228764/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5193110", "name": "Dom Dorwart", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 160 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5193110/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5211691", "name": "Preston Bowman", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 63 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5211691/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5394410", "name": "Riley Palmeter", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 61 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5394410/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5221306", "name": "Jake Furtney", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 42 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5221306/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Ohio Bobcats: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/195/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 22.136666666666667, 28.621666666666666 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.375, 25.666666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 22.200000000000003, 26.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.2383333333333333, 2.7383333333333333 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Central Michigan Chippewas at Ohio Bobcats", "market": { "id": "401866438", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866438", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.668720+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.910846+00:00", "home_line": -2.5, "away_line": 2.5, "home_line_price": -102.0, "away_line_price": -118.0, "total": 46.5, "under_line": 46.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -130.0, "away_ml": 110.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -2.5, "average_total": 46.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 4.522727272727273, "combined": 48.70454545454545, "spread_buffer": 2.0227272727272734, "total_difference": 2.2045454545454533 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 4.522727272727273, "combined": 48.70454545454545, "spread_buffer": 2.0227272727272734, "total_difference": 2.2045454545454533 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 15.052622495737563, "combined": 48.159633508769744, "spread_buffer": 12.552622495737563, "total_difference": 1.659633508769744 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 15.052622495737563, "combined": 48.159633508769744, "spread_buffer": 12.552622495737563, "total_difference": 1.659633508769744 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 7.072499999999998, "combined": 50.170833333333334, "spread_buffer": 4.572499999999998, "total_difference": 3.6708333333333343 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 7.072499999999998, "combined": 50.170833333333334, "spread_buffer": 4.572499999999998, "total_difference": 3.6708333333333343 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401866438", "matchup": "Central Michigan Chippewas at Ohio Bobcats", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Ohio Bobcats", "line": -2.5, "price": -102.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866438", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.668720+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.910846+00:00", "home_line": -2.5, "away_line": 2.5, "home_line_price": -102.0, "away_line_price": -118.0, "total": 46.5, "under_line": 46.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -130.0, "away_ml": 110.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 4.572499999999998, "production_adjusted": 4.572499999999998, "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.9849999999999994, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "directional_buffer": 2.0227272727272734, "scenario_minimum": 2.0227272727272734 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "directional_buffer": 12.552622495737563, "scenario_minimum": 12.552622495737563 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 4.572499999999998, "scenario_minimum": 4.572499999999998 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 4.572499999999998, "scenario_minimum": 4.572499999999998 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 22.136666666666667, 28.621666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 3.9849999999999994, "stressed_buffer": 0.9849999999999994 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 4.572499999999998, "stressed_buffer": 1.572499999999998 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 22.136666666666667, 28.621666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 3.9849999999999994, "stressed_buffer": 0.9849999999999994 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 22.136666666666667, 28.621666666666666 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.375, 25.666666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 22.200000000000003, 26.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.2383333333333333, 2.7383333333333333 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Ohio Bobcats", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Athens&state=OH&site=RLX&textField1=39.3242&textField2=-82.0961&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Athens&state=OH&site=RLX&textField1=39.3242&textField2=-82.0961&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:30:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after midnight. Low around 56. East wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 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East wind 3 to 7 mph. Showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after midnight. Low around 56. East wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 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Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.375, 25.666666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 22.200000000000003, 26.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.2383333333333333, 2.7383333333333333 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Ohio Bobcats", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Athens&state=OH&site=RLX&textField1=39.3242&textField2=-82.0961&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Athens&state=OH&site=RLX&textField1=39.3242&textField2=-82.0961&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:30:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after midnight. Low around 56. East wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 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East wind 3 to 7 mph. Showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after midnight. Low around 56. East wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.25, 33.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 15.0, 31.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.615384615384617, 18.23076923076923 ], "current_rates": [ 23.2, 19.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 18.0, 29.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.0, 29.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Kent State Golden Flashes", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Western Michigan Broncos", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401866439", "matchup": "Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan Broncos", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Kent State Golden Flashes", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Western Michigan Broncos", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Kent State Golden Flashes: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Western Michigan Broncos: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. 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Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 19.740384615384613, 28.599358974358978 ], "currentMatchup": [ 17.2, 27.299999999999997 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.791794871794872, 5.291794871794872 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 55, "def_drives": 57, "off_points_proxy": 67, "def_points_proxy": 150, "off_plays": 405, "off_yards": 1853, "def_plays": 369, "def_yards": 2324, "early_plays": 270, "early_yards": 992, "explosive_plays": 26, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856665", "401858454", "401866416", "401866425", "401866434" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.2181818181818183, "def_ppd": 2.6315789473684212, "off_ypp": 4.575308641975309, "def_ypp": 6.29810298102981, "early_down_ypp": 3.674074074074074 }, "home": { "off_drives": 52, "def_drives": 51, "off_points_proxy": 116, "def_points_proxy": 97, "off_plays": 378, "off_yards": 1965, "def_plays": 414, "def_yards": 2111, "early_plays": 269, "early_yards": 1351, "explosive_plays": 23, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858428", "401860897", "401862773", "401866421", "401866432" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.230769230769231, "def_ppd": 1.9019607843137254, "off_ypp": 5.198412698412699, "def_ypp": 5.099033816425121, "early_down_ypp": 5.022304832713755 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 76. South wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Kalamazoo&state=MI&site=GRR&textField1=42.2747&textField2=-85.5883&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Kent State Golden Flashes", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Western Michigan Broncos", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866439", "matchup": "Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan Broncos", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Kent State Golden Flashes", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Western Michigan Broncos", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. 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"source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5388310/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4875755", "name": "Mason King", "position": "RB", "workload": "39 CAR, 166 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/4875755/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5327601", "name": "Brandon White", "position": "RB", "workload": "40 CAR, 126 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5327601/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5126524", "name": "Jakorion Caffey", "position": "RB", "workload": "21 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5126524/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5295590", "name": "Da'Realyst Clark", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 246 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5295590/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5147053", "name": "Wayne Harris", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 204 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5147053/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5027432", "name": "Ardell Banks", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 167 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5027432/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5088143", "name": "Terik Mulder", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 61 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5088143/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5211188", "name": "Zy'aire Fletcher", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 5 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5211188/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Kent State Golden Flashes: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2309/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401866439", "teamId": "2711", "team": "Western Michigan Broncos", "side": "home", "opponent": "Kent State Golden Flashes", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5074245", "name": "Broc Lowry", "position": "QB", "workload": "77/113, 739 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5074245/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5126475", "name": "Trey Petty", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/6, 54 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5126475/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5085006", "name": "Jalen Buckley", "position": "RB", "workload": "62 CAR, 287 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5085006/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5296166", "name": "Lolo Mataele", "position": "RB", "workload": "32 CAR, 130 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5296166/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4917858", "name": "Cole Cabana", "position": "RB", "workload": "9 CAR, 19 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/4917858/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5164351", "name": "Aveion Chenault", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 272 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5164351/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5075962", "name": "Baylin Brooks", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 106 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5075962/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5155273", "name": "Egypt Nelson", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5155273/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5157528", "name": "Nate Levicki", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 112 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5157528/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5121636", "name": "Adam Parks", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 43 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5121636/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Western Michigan Broncos: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2711/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 15.948589743589741, 33.24147435897436 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 19.740384615384613, 28.599358974358978 ], "currentMatchup": [ 17.2, 27.299999999999997 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.791794871794872, 5.291794871794872 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan Broncos", "market": { "id": "401866439", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866439", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.824621+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.037698+00:00", "home_line": -14.0, "away_line": 14.0, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 43.5, "under_line": 43.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -600.0, "away_ml": 440.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -14.0, "average_total": 43.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 10.923076923076923, "combined": 46.594405594405586, "spread_buffer": -3.0769230769230766, "total_difference": 3.094405594405586 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 10.923076923076923, "combined": 46.594405594405586, "spread_buffer": -3.0769230769230766, "total_difference": 3.094405594405586 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 21.03147505542484, "combined": 48.04097452155321, "spread_buffer": 7.031475055424838, "total_difference": 4.54097452155321 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 21.03147505542484, "combined": 48.04097452155321, "spread_buffer": 7.031475055424838, "total_difference": 4.54097452155321 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 18.56307692307692, "combined": 47.919871794871796, "spread_buffer": 4.56307692307692, "total_difference": 4.419871794871796 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 18.56307692307692, "combined": 47.919871794871796, "spread_buffer": 4.56307692307692, "total_difference": 4.419871794871796 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401866439", "matchup": "Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan Broncos", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Western Michigan Broncos", "line": -14.0, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866439", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.824621+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.037698+00:00", "home_line": -14.0, "away_line": 14.0, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 43.5, "under_line": 43.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -600.0, "away_ml": 440.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 4.56307692307692, "production_adjusted": 4.56307692307692, "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.292884615384615, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "directional_buffer": -3.0769230769230766, "scenario_minimum": -3.0769230769230766 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "directional_buffer": 7.031475055424838, "scenario_minimum": 7.031475055424838 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 4.56307692307692, "scenario_minimum": 4.56307692307692 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 4.56307692307692, "scenario_minimum": 4.56307692307692 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 15.948589743589741, 33.24147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 3.292884615384615, "stressed_buffer": 0.2928846153846152 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 4.56307692307692, "stressed_buffer": 1.5630769230769204 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 15.948589743589741, 33.24147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 3.292884615384615, "stressed_buffer": 0.2928846153846152 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 15.948589743589741, 33.24147435897436 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 21.916666666666668, 22.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 23.333333333333332, 28.166666666666668 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 15.916666666666666, 33.083333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 14.833333333333334, 33.166666666666664 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 21.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.0, 21.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.916666666666668, "pa": 22.666666666666668, "margin": -0.75, "event_ids": [ "401767732", "401767593", "401754639", "401767589", "401767352", "401767666", "401767739", "401767728", "401767716", "401767724", "401767740", "401767340" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 28.166666666666668, "margin": -4.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401867988", "401869127", "401858222", "401868018", "401868037", "401868029" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.916666666666666, "pa": 33.083333333333336, "margin": -17.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401754518", "401767257", "401767322", "401767672", "401767673", "401767674", "401767700", "401767675", "401767716", "401767669", "401767717", "401767718" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 14.833333333333334, "pa": 33.166666666666664, "margin": -18.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401868007", "401864499", "401868008", "401868009", "401866648", "401868010" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.5, 19.291666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.25, 21.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.9916666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31.0, 19.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.0, 19.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.916666666666668, "pa": 22.666666666666668, "margin": -0.75, "event_ids": [ "401767732", "401767593", "401754639", "401767589", "401767352", "401767666", "401767739", "401767728", "401767716", "401767724", "401767740", "401767340" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 28.166666666666668, "margin": -4.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401867988", "401869127", "401858222", "401868018", "401868037", "401868029" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.916666666666666, "pa": 33.083333333333336, "margin": -17.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401754518", "401767257", "401767322", "401767672", "401767673", "401767674", "401767700", "401767675", "401767716", "401767669", "401767717", "401767718" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 14.833333333333334, "pa": 33.166666666666664, "margin": -18.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401868007", "401864499", "401868008", "401868009", "401866648", "401868010" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.5, 19.291666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.25, 21.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.9916666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31.0, 19.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.0, 19.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868011", "matchup": "Richmond Spiders at Fordham Rams", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Fordham Rams: QB Gunnar Smith/Crew Colon, RB Jamell James/Yohan-Li Louis/Taariq Denson, WR Ricky Gonzalez II/Nodin Tracy/KJ Reed, TE Chris Tuck II/John Morris; Richmond Spiders: QB Ashten Snelsire, RB Aziz Foster-Powell/Jamaal Brown/Warrick Stephenson, WR Bryce Allen/Andreas Hill/Quanye Veney, TE Carson Derey/Sean Clarke", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.866666666666667, 20.008333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.5, 19.291666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 28.25, 21.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.9916666666666667, -1.4916666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 82, "def_drives": 78, "off_points_proxy": 138, "def_points_proxy": 164, "off_plays": 542, "off_yards": 2786, "def_plays": 449, "def_yards": 2609, "early_plays": 394, "early_yards": 1898, "explosive_plays": 34, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858222", "401867988", "401868018", "401868029", "401868037", "401869127" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.6829268292682926, "def_ppd": 2.1025641025641026, "off_ypp": 5.1402214022140225, "def_ypp": 5.810690423162583, "early_down_ypp": 4.817258883248731 }, "home": { "off_drives": 72, "def_drives": 71, "off_points_proxy": 83, "def_points_proxy": 193, "off_plays": 469, "off_yards": 2547, "def_plays": 511, "def_yards": 3100, "early_plays": 322, "early_yards": 1686, "explosive_plays": 39, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401864499", "401866648", "401868007", "401868008", "401868009", "401868010" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.1527777777777777, "def_ppd": 2.7183098591549295, "off_ypp": 5.430703624733476, "def_ypp": 6.066536203522505, "early_down_ypp": 5.236024844720497 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2230", "teamName": "Fordham Rams", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868010", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Fordham Rams at Lehigh Mountain Hawks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Goodman Stadium", "address": { "city": "Bethlehem", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "18015", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2329", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "2329", "displayName": "Lehigh Mountain Hawks" } }, { "id": "2230", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "2230", "displayName": "Fordham Rams" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.146, "officialScheduleSource": "https://fordhamsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "257", "teamName": "Richmond Spiders", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868029", "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "name": "Richmond Spiders at Lafayette Leopards", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Fisher Stadium", "address": { "city": "Easton", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "18042", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "322", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "322", "displayName": "Lafayette Leopards" } }, { "id": "257", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 40.0, "displayValue": "40" }, "team": { "id": "257", "displayName": "Richmond Spiders" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://richmondspiders.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Bronx. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bronx&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=40.8489&textField2=-73.8762&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.056119+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 6 mph in the morning. Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 55. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868011", "matchup": "Richmond Spiders at Fordham Rams", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://fordhamsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bronx&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=40.8489&textField2=-73.8762&e=1", "https://richmondspiders.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868011", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868011", "date": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "150", "fullName": "Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Bronx", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "257", "away_name": "Richmond Spiders", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2230", "home_name": "Fordham Rams", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.916666666666668, "pa": 22.666666666666668, "margin": -0.75, "event_ids": [ "401767732", "401767593", "401754639", "401767589", "401767352", "401767666", "401767739", "401767728", "401767716", "401767724", "401767740", "401767340" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 28.166666666666668, "margin": -4.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401867988", "401869127", "401858222", "401868018", "401868037", "401868029" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.916666666666666, "pa": 33.083333333333336, "margin": -17.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401754518", "401767257", "401767322", "401767672", "401767673", "401767674", "401767700", "401767675", "401767716", "401767669", "401767717", "401767718" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 14.833333333333334, "pa": 33.166666666666664, "margin": -18.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401868007", "401864499", "401868008", "401868009", "401866648", "401868010" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.5, 19.291666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.25, 21.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.9916666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 10.866666666666667, 50.86666666666667 ], "home": [ 0, 38.90416666666667 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868011", "matchup": "Richmond Spiders at Fordham Rams", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "venue": { "id": "150", "guid": "135db278-68ff-3652-9fb3-3dcff0194c44", "fullName": "Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field", "address": { "city": "Bronx", "state": "NY", "zipCode": "10458", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2230", "teamName": "Fordham Rams", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868010", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Fordham Rams at Lehigh Mountain Hawks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Goodman Stadium", "address": { "city": "Bethlehem", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "18015", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2329", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "2329", "displayName": "Lehigh Mountain Hawks" } }, { "id": "2230", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "2230", "displayName": "Fordham Rams" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.146, "officialScheduleSource": "https://fordhamsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "257", "teamName": "Richmond Spiders", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868029", "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "name": "Richmond Spiders at Lafayette Leopards", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Fisher Stadium", "address": { "city": "Easton", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "18042", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "322", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "322", "displayName": "Lafayette Leopards" } }, { "id": "257", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 40.0, "displayValue": "40" }, "team": { "id": "257", "displayName": "Richmond Spiders" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://richmondspiders.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Bronx. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2230", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#257" ], "finding": "Fordham Rams: QB Gunnar Smith/Crew Colon, RB Jamell James/Yohan-Li Louis/Taariq Denson, WR Ricky Gonzalez II/Nodin Tracy/KJ Reed, TE Chris Tuck II/John Morris; Richmond Spiders: QB Ashten Snelsire, RB Aziz Foster-Powell/Jamaal Brown/Warrick Stephenson, WR Bryce Allen/Andreas Hill/Quanye Veney, TE Carson Derey/Sean Clarke" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2230", "teamName": "Fordham Rams", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868010", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Fordham Rams at Lehigh Mountain Hawks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Goodman Stadium", "address": { "city": "Bethlehem", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "18015", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2329", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "2329", "displayName": "Lehigh Mountain Hawks" } }, { "id": "2230", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "2230", "displayName": "Fordham Rams" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.146, "officialScheduleSource": "https://fordhamsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "257", "teamName": "Richmond Spiders", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868029", "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "name": "Richmond Spiders at Lafayette Leopards", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Fisher Stadium", "address": { "city": "Easton", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "18042", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "322", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "322", "displayName": "Lafayette Leopards" } }, { "id": "257", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 40.0, "displayValue": "40" }, "team": { "id": "257", "displayName": "Richmond Spiders" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://richmondspiders.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Bronx. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bronx&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=40.8489&textField2=-73.8762&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.056119+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 6 mph in the morning. Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 55. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. 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No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401868180", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868180", "date": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3710", "fullName": "Ernest W. Spangler Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Boiling Springs", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2197", "away_name": "Eastern Illinois Panthers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2241", "home_name": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.46780303030303, 30.943181818181817 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.46780303030303, 30.943181818181817 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.46780303030303, 30.943181818181817 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 17.5, 29.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 18.0, 41.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 27.5, 29.75 ], "current_rates": [ 24.0, 23.666666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 31.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 31.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.056851840448825, 35.798154274362616 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.056851840448825, 35.798154274362616 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.056851840448825, 35.798154274362616 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17.0, 36.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.0, 36.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.5, "pa": 29.166666666666668, "margin": -11.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767171", "401767172", "401767173", "401767174", "401767175", "401767196", "401767197", "401767167", "401767198", "401767199", "401767200", "401752773" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.0, "pa": 41.2, "margin": -23.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401867865", "401858422", "401867856", "401867846", "401868179" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 29.75, "margin": -2.25, "event_ids": [ "401767201", "401754622", "401767202", "401762823", "401767164", "401767196", "401767203", "401767204", "401767205", "401767206", "401767207", "401767208" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 23.666666666666668, "margin": 0.33333333333333215, "event_ids": [ "401868060", "401868186", "401868187", "401867979", "401868188", "401868173" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.625, 28.333333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 32.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.2950000000000004, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19.0, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.0, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.5, "pa": 29.166666666666668, "margin": -11.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767171", "401767172", "401767173", "401767174", "401767175", "401767196", "401767197", "401767167", "401767198", "401767199", "401767200", "401752773" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.0, "pa": 41.2, "margin": -23.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401867865", "401858422", "401867856", "401867846", "401868179" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 29.75, "margin": -2.25, "event_ids": [ "401767201", "401754622", "401767202", "401762823", "401767164", "401767196", "401767203", "401767204", "401767205", "401767206", "401767207", "401767208" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 23.666666666666668, "margin": 0.33333333333333215, "event_ids": [ "401868060", "401868186", "401868187", "401867979", "401868188", "401868173" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.625, 28.333333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 32.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.2950000000000004, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19.0, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.0, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868180", "matchup": "Eastern Illinois Panthers at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: QB Cole Pennington, RB Christian Vann, WR Kory Jones/Giovanni Adopte/Montez Green, TE Collin Carroll/Beau Blankenship; Eastern Illinois Panthers: QB Cole LaCrue/Jeremiah Salem, RB Charles Kellom/Tyren Buggs/Jacarre Fleming-Page, WR Jeremy Reeves/Devin Whitlock/Landers Green, TE Alex Ginnever/Whitten Weems", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 20.33, 35.26166666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.625, 28.333333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 32.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.2950000000000004, 4.795 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 57, "off_points_proxy": 104, "def_points_proxy": 185, "off_plays": 389, "off_yards": 1895, "def_plays": 442, "def_yards": 2915, "early_plays": 257, "early_yards": 1069, "explosive_plays": 25, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858422", "401867846", "401867856", "401867865", "401868179" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.793103448275862, "def_ppd": 3.245614035087719, "off_ypp": 4.87146529562982, "def_ypp": 6.595022624434389, "early_down_ypp": 4.159533073929961 }, "home": { "off_drives": 71, "def_drives": 78, "off_points_proxy": 128, "def_points_proxy": 138, "off_plays": 557, "off_yards": 3373, "def_plays": 487, "def_yards": 2970, "early_plays": 384, "early_yards": 2091, "explosive_plays": 49, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867979", "401868060", "401868173", "401868186", "401868187", "401868188" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.8028169014084507, "def_ppd": 1.7692307692307692, "off_ypp": 6.055655296229802, "def_ypp": 6.098562628336755, "early_down_ypp": 5.4453125 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2241", "teamName": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868173", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Buccaneer Field", "address": { "city": "Charleston", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29406", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2127", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2127", "displayName": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers" } }, { "id": "2241", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 12.0, "displayValue": "12" }, "team": { "id": "2241", "displayName": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gwusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2197", "teamName": "Eastern Illinois Panthers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868179", "date": "2026-09-26T23:00Z", "name": "Eastern Illinois Panthers at South Dakota State Jackrabbits", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium", "address": { "city": "Brookings", "state": "SD", "zipCode": "57006", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2571", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2571", "displayName": "South Dakota State Jackrabbits" } }, { "id": "2197", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "2197", "displayName": "Eastern Illinois Panthers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 13.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://eiupanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Boiling Springs. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Boiling%20Springs%2C%20NC", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.114036+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "National Weather Service Skip Navigation NOAA weather.gov More than one location matched your submission Please select one of the following choices Search for: NWS All NOAA Home Site Map News Organization Search for local forecast by \"City, St\" or Zip Code Boiling Springs, NC (Cleveland County) Boiling Springs, NC (Cherokee County) NOAA's National Weather Service www.crh.noaa.gov Disclaimer Credits Glossary Privacy Policy About Us Career Opportunities", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868180", "matchup": "Eastern Illinois Panthers at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://eiupanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Boiling%20Springs%2C%20NC", "https://gwusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868180", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868180", "date": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3710", "fullName": "Ernest W. Spangler Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Boiling Springs", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2197", "away_name": "Eastern Illinois Panthers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2241", "home_name": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.5, "pa": 29.166666666666668, "margin": -11.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767171", "401767172", "401767173", "401767174", "401767175", "401767196", "401767197", "401767167", "401767198", "401767199", "401767200", "401752773" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.0, "pa": 41.2, "margin": -23.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401867865", "401858422", "401867856", "401867846", "401868179" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 29.75, "margin": -2.25, "event_ids": [ "401767201", "401754622", "401767202", "401762823", "401767164", "401767196", "401767203", "401767204", "401767205", "401767206", "401767207", "401767208" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 23.666666666666668, "margin": 0.33333333333333215, "event_ids": [ "401868060", "401868186", "401868187", "401867979", "401868188", "401868173" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.625, 28.333333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 32.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.2950000000000004, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0, 38.93416666666667 ], "home": [ 15.26166666666667, 55.26166666666667 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868180", "matchup": "Eastern Illinois Panthers at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "venue": { "id": "3710", "guid": "a5e712bc-77e6-34f6-8423-9843a7918252", "fullName": "Ernest W. 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Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2241", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2197" ], "finding": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: QB Cole Pennington, RB Christian Vann, WR Kory Jones/Giovanni Adopte/Montez Green, TE Collin Carroll/Beau Blankenship; Eastern Illinois Panthers: QB Cole LaCrue/Jeremiah Salem, RB Charles Kellom/Tyren Buggs/Jacarre Fleming-Page, WR Jeremy Reeves/Devin Whitlock/Landers Green, TE Alex Ginnever/Whitten Weems" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. 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Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Boiling%20Springs%2C%20NC", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.114036+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "National Weather Service Skip Navigation NOAA weather.gov More than one location matched your submission Please select one of the following choices Search for: NWS All NOAA Home Site Map News Organization Search for local forecast by \"City, St\" or Zip Code Boiling Springs, NC (Cleveland County) Boiling Springs, NC (Cherokee County) NOAA's National Weather Service www.crh.noaa.gov Disclaimer Credits Glossary Privacy Policy About Us Career Opportunities", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. 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Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868180", "matchup": "Eastern Illinois Panthers at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 49.5, "price": -113.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868180", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.835212+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.033668+00:00", "home_line": -13.5, "away_line": 13.5, "home_line_price": -113.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 49.5, "under_line": 49.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -620.0, "away_ml": 420.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 4.69583333333334, "production_adjusted": 4.69583333333334, "minimum_all_scenarios": 4.69583333333334, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.46780303030303, 30.943181818181817 ], "directional_buffer": 2.910984848484844, "scenario_minimum": 2.910984848484844 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.056851840448825, 35.798154274362616 ], "directional_buffer": 3.355006114811445, "scenario_minimum": 3.355006114811445 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 4.69583333333334, "scenario_minimum": 4.69583333333334 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 4.69583333333334, "scenario_minimum": 4.69583333333334 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 4.69583333333334, "stressed_buffer": 1.69583333333334 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 4.69583333333334, "stressed_buffer": 1.69583333333334 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 20.330000000000002, 35.26166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 6.091666666666669, "stressed_buffer": 3.0916666666666686 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 20.33, 35.26166666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.625, 28.333333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 32.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.2950000000000004, 4.795 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Required playing conditions forecast unavailable or city lookup unresolved; a successful HTTP response alone is insufficient", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Boiling%20Springs%2C%20NC" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Required playing conditions forecast unavailable or city lookup unresolved; a successful HTTP response alone is insufficient", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Boiling%20Springs%2C%20NC", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:30:00-04:00", "window": "National Weather Service Skip Navigation NOAA weather.gov More than one location matched your submission Please select one of the following choices Search for: NWS All NOAA Home Site Map News Organization Search for local forecast by \"City, St\" or Zip Code Boiling Springs, NC (Cleveland County) Boiling Springs, NC (Cherokee County) NOAA's National Weather Service www.crh.noaa.gov Disclaimer Credits Glossary Privacy Policy About Us Career Opportunities", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 20.666666666666668, 23.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 21.2, 35.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 12.916666666666666, 26.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 16.0, 34.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25.0, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.0, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.760796401748166, 24.639962420363418 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.760796401748166, 24.639962420363418 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.760796401748166, 24.639962420363418 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.0, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 23.916666666666668, "margin": -3.25, "event_ids": [ "401756876", "401757231", "401767235", "401757265", "401767219", "401767211", "401767236", "401767203", "401767198", "401767229", "401767169", "401767234" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.2, "pa": 35.0, "margin": -13.8, "event_ids": [ "401868070", "401867684", "401856791", "401862772", "401868063" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 12.916666666666666, "pa": 26.583333333333332, "margin": -13.666666666666666, "event_ids": [ "401767223", "401767224", "401767225", "401767226", "401767175", "401767220", "401767227", "401767228", "401767213", "401767229", "401767207", "401767170" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.0, "pa": 34.6, "margin": -18.6, "event_ids": [ "401868194", "401856658", "401868195", "401868196", "401868197" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.625, 18.416666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.9, 25.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.5216666666666665, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 22.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 22.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 23.916666666666668, "margin": -3.25, "event_ids": [ "401756876", "401757231", "401767235", "401757265", "401767219", "401767211", "401767236", "401767203", "401767198", "401767229", "401767169", "401767234" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.2, "pa": 35.0, "margin": -13.8, "event_ids": [ "401868070", "401867684", "401856791", "401862772", "401868063" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 12.916666666666666, "pa": 26.583333333333332, "margin": -13.666666666666666, "event_ids": [ "401767223", "401767224", "401767225", "401767226", "401767175", "401767220", "401767227", "401767228", "401767213", "401767229", "401767207", "401767170" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.0, "pa": 34.6, "margin": -18.6, "event_ids": [ "401868194", "401856658", "401868195", "401868196", "401868197" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.625, 18.416666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.9, 25.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.5216666666666665, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 22.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 22.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868198", "matchup": "UT Martin Skyhawks at Tennessee State Tigers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Tennessee State Tigers: QB Daylin Lee, RB Brenton Paul/Trevor Pearson, WR Cam Bulluck/Jayden Guy/Brock Montgomery, TE Aaron Duncan II/Francisco Pratts III; UT Martin Skyhawks: QB Tate Surber, RB Chris Franklin/Jaydon Peete/Tommy Ansley, WR Makhia Sherrard/Deuce Oliver/Anthony Carter, TE Dawson Adams-Grenier/Connie Hewitt II", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 27.284166666666668, 25.47833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.625, 18.416666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.9, 25.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.5216666666666667, -0.021666666666666723 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 55, "def_drives": 55, "off_points_proxy": 90, "def_points_proxy": 172, "off_plays": 399, "off_yards": 1986, "def_plays": 392, "def_yards": 2542, "early_plays": 292, "early_yards": 1410, "explosive_plays": 25, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856791", "401862772", "401867684", "401868063", "401868070" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.6363636363636365, "def_ppd": 3.1272727272727274, "off_ypp": 4.977443609022556, "def_ypp": 6.48469387755102, "early_down_ypp": 4.828767123287672 }, "home": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 72, "def_points_proxy": 167, "off_plays": 446, "off_yards": 2050, "def_plays": 421, "def_yards": 3416, "early_plays": 310, "early_yards": 1411, "explosive_plays": 29, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856658", "401868194", "401868195", "401868196", "401868197" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.2203389830508475, "def_ppd": 2.737704918032787, "off_ypp": 4.596412556053812, "def_ypp": 8.114014251781473, "early_down_ypp": 4.551612903225807 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2634", "teamName": "Tennessee State Tigers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868197", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Tennessee State Tigers at Western Illinois Leathernecks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Hanson Field", "address": { "city": "Macomb", "state": "IL", "zipCode": "61455", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2710", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2710", "displayName": "Western Illinois Leathernecks" } }, { "id": "2634", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2634", "displayName": "Tennessee State Tigers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.979, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tsutigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2630", "teamName": "UT Martin Skyhawks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868063", "date": "2026-09-26T18:00Z", "name": "UT Martin Skyhawks at Austin Peay Governors", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Fortera Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clarksville", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37040", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2046", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "2046", "displayName": "Austin Peay Governors" } }, { "id": "2630", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 12.0, "displayValue": "12" }, "team": { "id": "2630", "displayName": "UT Martin Skyhawks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.062, "officialScheduleSource": "https://utmsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Nashville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Nashville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1716&textField2=-86.7848&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.149603+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 62. East wind around 5 mph. Saturday Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. High near 71. East southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers, mainly before 11pm. Low around 59. East northeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868198", "matchup": "UT Martin Skyhawks at Tennessee State Tigers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://a.espncdn.com/i/venues/college-football/day/interior/3810.jpg", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Nashville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1716&textField2=-86.7848&e=1", "https://tsutigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://utmsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868198", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868198", "date": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3810", "fullName": "Nissan Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Nashville", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2630", "away_name": "UT Martin Skyhawks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2634", "home_name": "Tennessee State Tigers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 23.916666666666668, "margin": -3.25, "event_ids": [ "401756876", "401757231", "401767235", "401757265", "401767219", "401767211", "401767236", "401767203", "401767198", "401767229", "401767169", "401767234" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.2, "pa": 35.0, "margin": -13.8, "event_ids": [ "401868070", "401867684", "401856791", "401862772", "401868063" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 12.916666666666666, "pa": 26.583333333333332, "margin": -13.666666666666666, "event_ids": [ "401767223", "401767224", "401767225", "401767226", "401767175", "401767220", "401767227", "401767228", "401767213", "401767229", "401767207", "401767170" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.0, "pa": 34.6, "margin": -18.6, "event_ids": [ "401868194", "401856658", "401868195", "401868196", "401868197" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.625, 18.416666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.9, 25.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.5216666666666665, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 7.284166666666664, 47.284166666666664 ], "home": [ 1.9366666666666674, 41.93666666666667 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868198", "matchup": "UT Martin Skyhawks at Tennessee State Tigers", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "venue": { "id": "3810", "guid": "2ce67339-d170-3f5a-af8f-85c1869b9e23", "fullName": "Nissan Stadium", "address": { "city": "Nashville", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37213", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [ { "href": "https://a.espncdn.com/i/venues/college-football/day/interior/3810.jpg", "width": 2000, "height": 1125, "alt": "", "rel": [ "full", "day", "interior" ] } ] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2634", "teamName": "Tennessee State Tigers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868197", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Tennessee State Tigers at Western Illinois Leathernecks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Hanson Field", "address": { "city": "Macomb", "state": "IL", "zipCode": "61455", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2710", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2710", "displayName": "Western Illinois Leathernecks" } }, { "id": "2634", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2634", "displayName": "Tennessee State Tigers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.979, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tsutigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2630", "teamName": "UT Martin Skyhawks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868063", "date": "2026-09-26T18:00Z", "name": "UT Martin Skyhawks at Austin Peay Governors", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Fortera Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clarksville", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37040", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2046", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "2046", "displayName": "Austin Peay Governors" } }, { "id": "2630", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 12.0, "displayValue": "12" }, "team": { "id": "2630", "displayName": "UT Martin Skyhawks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.062, "officialScheduleSource": "https://utmsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Nashville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2634", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2630" ], "finding": "Tennessee State Tigers: QB Daylin Lee, RB Brenton Paul/Trevor Pearson, WR Cam Bulluck/Jayden Guy/Brock Montgomery, TE Aaron Duncan II/Francisco Pratts III; UT Martin Skyhawks: QB Tate Surber, RB Chris Franklin/Jaydon Peete/Tommy Ansley, WR Makhia Sherrard/Deuce Oliver/Anthony Carter, TE Dawson Adams-Grenier/Connie Hewitt II" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2634", "teamName": "Tennessee State Tigers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868197", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Tennessee State Tigers at Western Illinois Leathernecks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Hanson Field", "address": { "city": "Macomb", "state": "IL", "zipCode": "61455", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2710", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2710", "displayName": "Western Illinois Leathernecks" } }, { "id": "2634", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2634", "displayName": "Tennessee State Tigers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.979, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tsutigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2630", "teamName": "UT Martin Skyhawks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868063", "date": "2026-09-26T18:00Z", "name": "UT Martin Skyhawks at Austin Peay Governors", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Fortera Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clarksville", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37040", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2046", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "2046", "displayName": "Austin Peay Governors" } }, { "id": "2630", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 12.0, "displayValue": "12" }, "team": { "id": "2630", "displayName": "UT Martin Skyhawks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.062, "officialScheduleSource": "https://utmsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Nashville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Nashville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1716&textField2=-86.7848&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.149603+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 62. East wind around 5 mph. Saturday Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. High near 71. East southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers, mainly before 11pm. Low around 59. East northeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 27.284166666666668, 25.47833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.625, 18.416666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.9, 25.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.5216666666666667, -0.021666666666666723 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "UT Martin Skyhawks at Tennessee State Tigers", "market": { "id": "401868198", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868198", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.868296+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.114425+00:00", "home_line": 8.5, "away_line": -8.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 46.5, "under_line": 46.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 265.0, "away_ml": -352.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 8.5, "average_total": 46.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -2.4318181818181834, "combined": 47.20454545454545, "spread_buffer": 6.068181818181817, "total_difference": 0.7045454545454533 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -2.4318181818181834, "combined": 47.20454545454545, "spread_buffer": 6.068181818181817, "total_difference": 0.7045454545454533 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 3.8791660186152512, "combined": 45.400758822111584, "spread_buffer": 12.379166018615251, "total_difference": -1.0992411778884161 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 3.8791660186152512, "combined": 45.400758822111584, "spread_buffer": 12.379166018615251, "total_difference": -1.0992411778884161 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -5.347499999999997, "combined": 49.22083333333333, "spread_buffer": 3.1525000000000034, "total_difference": 2.7208333333333314 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -5.347499999999997, "combined": 49.22083333333333, "spread_buffer": 3.1525000000000034, "total_difference": 2.7208333333333314 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868198", "matchup": "UT Martin Skyhawks at Tennessee State Tigers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Tennessee State Tigers", "line": 8.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868198", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.868296+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.114425+00:00", "home_line": 8.5, "away_line": -8.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 46.5, "under_line": 46.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 265.0, "away_ml": -352.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 3.1525000000000034, "production_adjusted": 3.1525000000000034, "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.1525000000000034, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.818181818181817, 22.386363636363633 ], "directional_buffer": 6.068181818181817, "scenario_minimum": 6.068181818181817 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.760796401748166, 24.639962420363418 ], "directional_buffer": 12.379166018615251, "scenario_minimum": 12.379166018615251 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 3.1525000000000034, "scenario_minimum": 3.1525000000000034 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 3.1525000000000034, "scenario_minimum": 3.1525000000000034 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 3.1525000000000034, "stressed_buffer": 0.1525000000000034 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 3.1525000000000034, "stressed_buffer": 0.1525000000000034 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 27.284166666666664, 25.47833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 6.694166666666668, "stressed_buffer": 3.6941666666666677 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 27.284166666666668, 25.47833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; 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Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.416666666666668, "pa": 31.0, "margin": -6.583333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767339", "401767565", "401767141", "401767566", "401767559", "401767567", "401767568", "401767569", "401767570", "401767535", "401767571", "401754605" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 16.666666666666668, "pa": 22.833333333333332, "margin": -6.166666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868373", "401856666", "401868374", "401867984", "401868037", "401868375" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 37.53846153846154, "pa": 18.692307692307693, "margin": 18.846153846153847, "event_ids": [ "401767230", "401767231", "401767232", "401767226", "401767233", "401767165", "401767212", "401767221", "401767205", "401767199", "401752767", "401767234", "401836115" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.8, "pa": 24.8, "margin": 8.999999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401866621", "401868336", "401868386", "401868390", "401868391" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 21.554487179487182, 34.269230769230774 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.733333333333334, 28.316666666666663 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.059615384615384, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.0, 37.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.0, 37.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868376", "matchup": "Furman Paladins at Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles: QB Jax Leatherwood, RB M.J. Flowers/Marcus Harris II/Qua Ashley, WR Gabe Nunez/Tre' Holloway/Maury Sullivan, TE Lazaro Rodriguez/Gerard Grewe; Furman Paladins: QB Connor Ackerley/Trey Smith, RB Ben Croasdale/CJ Nettles, WR Luke Shields/Ethan Harris/Daniel Haughton, TE Jackson Pryor/Cameron James", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 17.4948717948718, 36.8525641025641 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 21.554487179487182, 34.269230769230774 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.733333333333334, 28.316666666666663 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.059615384615384, 5.559615384615384 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 79, "def_drives": 81, "off_points_proxy": 92, "def_points_proxy": 139, "off_plays": 544, "off_yards": 2859, "def_plays": 547, "def_yards": 3080, "early_plays": 364, "early_yards": 1919, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856666", "401867984", "401868037", "401868373", "401868374", "401868375" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.1645569620253164, "def_ppd": 1.7160493827160495, "off_ypp": 5.255514705882353, "def_ypp": 5.630712979890311, "early_down_ypp": 5.271978021978022 }, "home": { "off_drives": 63, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 155, "def_points_proxy": 131, "off_plays": 417, "off_yards": 2622, "def_plays": 436, "def_yards": 2650, "early_plays": 300, "early_yards": 2031, "explosive_plays": 35, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866621", "401868336", "401868386", "401868390", "401868391" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.4603174603174605, "def_ppd": 2.1129032258064515, "off_ypp": 6.287769784172662, "def_ypp": 6.077981651376147, "early_down_ypp": 6.77 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2635", "teamName": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868391", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Western Carolina Catamounts", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "E.J. Whitmire Stadium", "address": { "city": "Cullowhee", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "28723", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2717", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "2717", "displayName": "Western Carolina Catamounts" } }, { "id": "2635", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "2635", "displayName": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ttusports.com/sports/fball/2026-27/schedule", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue", "scheduleExplanation": "Official current schedule says Today, with matching opponent and kickoff; retained at current Eastern date." }, { "teamId": "231", "teamName": "Furman Paladins", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868375", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Wofford Terriers at Furman Paladins", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Paladin Stadium", "address": { "city": "Greenville", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29617", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "231", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 25.0, "displayValue": "25" }, "team": { "id": "231", "displayName": "Furman Paladins" } }, { "id": "2747", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 32.0, "displayValue": "32" }, "team": { "id": "2747", "displayName": "Wofford Terriers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.062, "officialScheduleSource": "https://furmanpaladins.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Cookeville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cookeville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1569&textField2=-85.5054&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.163803+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 59. East wind around 10 mph. Saturday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. High near 71. East northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 58. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868376", "matchup": "Furman Paladins at Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cookeville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1569&textField2=-85.5054&e=0", "https://furmanpaladins.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://ttusports.com/sports/fball/2026-27/schedule" ], "tu": { "id": "401868376", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868376", "date": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3962", "fullName": "Tucker Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Cookeville", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "231", "away_name": "Furman Paladins", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2635", "home_name": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.416666666666668, "pa": 31.0, "margin": -6.583333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767339", "401767565", "401767141", "401767566", "401767559", "401767567", "401767568", "401767569", "401767570", "401767535", "401767571", "401754605" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 16.666666666666668, "pa": 22.833333333333332, "margin": -6.166666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868373", "401856666", "401868374", "401867984", "401868037", "401868375" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 37.53846153846154, "pa": 18.692307692307693, "margin": 18.846153846153847, "event_ids": [ "401767230", "401767231", "401767232", "401767226", "401767233", "401767165", "401767212", "401767221", "401767205", "401767199", "401752767", "401767234", "401836115" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.8, "pa": 24.8, "margin": 8.999999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401866621", "401868336", "401868386", "401868390", "401868391" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 21.554487179487182, 34.269230769230774 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.733333333333334, 28.316666666666663 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.059615384615384, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0, 37.084294871794874 ], "home": [ 16.852564102564102, 56.8525641025641 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868376", "matchup": "Furman Paladins at Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "venue": { "id": "3962", "guid": "8ab94855-1891-3399-9e13-66aed786ac07", "fullName": "Tucker Stadium", "address": { "city": "Cookeville", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "38501", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2635", "teamName": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868391", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Western Carolina Catamounts", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "E.J. Whitmire Stadium", "address": { "city": "Cullowhee", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "28723", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2717", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "2717", "displayName": "Western Carolina Catamounts" } }, { "id": "2635", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "2635", "displayName": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ttusports.com/sports/fball/2026-27/schedule", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue", "scheduleExplanation": "Official current schedule says Today, with matching opponent and kickoff; retained at current Eastern date." }, { "teamId": "231", "teamName": "Furman Paladins", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868375", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Wofford Terriers at Furman Paladins", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Paladin Stadium", "address": { "city": "Greenville", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29617", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "231", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 25.0, "displayValue": "25" }, "team": { "id": "231", "displayName": "Furman Paladins" } }, { "id": "2747", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 32.0, "displayValue": "32" }, "team": { "id": "2747", "displayName": "Wofford Terriers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.062, "officialScheduleSource": "https://furmanpaladins.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Cookeville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2635", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#231" ], "finding": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles: QB Jax Leatherwood, RB M.J. Flowers/Marcus Harris II/Qua Ashley, WR Gabe Nunez/Tre' Holloway/Maury Sullivan, TE Lazaro Rodriguez/Gerard Grewe; Furman Paladins: QB Connor Ackerley/Trey Smith, RB Ben Croasdale/CJ Nettles, WR Luke Shields/Ethan Harris/Daniel Haughton, TE Jackson Pryor/Cameron James" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2635", "teamName": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868391", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Western Carolina Catamounts", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "E.J. Whitmire Stadium", "address": { "city": "Cullowhee", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "28723", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2717", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "2717", "displayName": "Western Carolina Catamounts" } }, { "id": "2635", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "2635", "displayName": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ttusports.com/sports/fball/2026-27/schedule", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue", "scheduleExplanation": "Official current schedule says Today, with matching opponent and kickoff; retained at current Eastern date." }, { "teamId": "231", "teamName": "Furman Paladins", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868375", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Wofford Terriers at Furman Paladins", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Paladin Stadium", "address": { "city": "Greenville", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29617", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "231", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 25.0, "displayValue": "25" }, "team": { "id": "231", "displayName": "Furman Paladins" } }, { "id": "2747", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 32.0, "displayValue": "32" }, "team": { "id": "2747", "displayName": "Wofford Terriers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.062, "officialScheduleSource": "https://furmanpaladins.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Cookeville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cookeville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1569&textField2=-85.5054&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.163803+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 59. East wind around 10 mph. Saturday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. High near 71. East northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 58. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. 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Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 21.554487179487182, 34.269230769230774 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.733333333333334, 28.316666666666663 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.059615384615384, 5.559615384615384 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cookeville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1569&textField2=-85.5054&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cookeville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1569&textField2=-85.5054&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:30:00-05:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. High near 71. East northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 35, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868376", "matchup": "Furman Paladins at Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 45.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868376", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.914361+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.110902+00:00", "home_line": -13.5, "away_line": 13.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 45.5, "under_line": 45.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -581.0, "away_ml": 401.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 8.436858974358977, "production_adjusted": 8.436858974358977, "minimum_all_scenarios": 8.436858974358977, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.25509906759907, 32.12791375291375 ], "directional_buffer": 6.883012820512818, "scenario_minimum": 6.883012820512818 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 16.476113670338002, 35.409537915932425 ], "directional_buffer": 6.385651586270427, "scenario_minimum": 6.385651586270427 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "directional_buffer": 8.436858974358977, "scenario_minimum": 8.436858974358977 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "directional_buffer": 8.436858974358977, "scenario_minimum": 8.436858974358977 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "directional_buffer": 8.436858974358977, "stressed_buffer": 5.436858974358977 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "directional_buffer": 8.436858974358977, "stressed_buffer": 5.436858974358977 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 17.4948717948718, 36.8525641025641 ], "directional_buffer": 8.8474358974359, "stressed_buffer": 5.847435897435901 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 17.4948717948718, 36.8525641025641 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 21.554487179487182, 34.269230769230774 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.733333333333334, 28.316666666666663 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.059615384615384, 5.559615384615384 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cookeville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1569&textField2=-85.5054&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cookeville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1569&textField2=-85.5054&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:30:00-05:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. High near 71. East northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 35, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892470", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892470", "date": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1826", "fullName": "Prudential Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Newark", "state": "NJ", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "22", "away_name": "Vancouver Canucks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "11", "home_name": "New Jersey Devils", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.003032873806999, 3.4914103923647932 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.003032873806999, 3.4914103923647932 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.003032873806999, 3.4914103923647932 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 2.6341463414634148, 3.8536585365853657 ], "current_rates": [ 4.2, 5.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.13043478260869565, "prior_rates": [ 2.8048780487804876, 3.097560975609756 ], "current_rates": [ 2.0, 4.333333333333333 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.8703416844625473, 3.5051330084093433 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8703416844625473, 3.5051330084093433 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8703416844625473, 3.5051330084093433 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.82926, "official_team_id": 23 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.75609, "pa": 3.08536, "official_team_id": 1 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.82926, "official_team_id": 23 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.75609, "pa": 3.08536, "official_team_id": 1 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "New Jersey Devils: Nick Bjugstad Injured Reserve, Jonas Siegenthaler Day-To-Day, Connor Brown Out, Seamus Casey Injured Reserve, Johnathan Kovacevic Injured Reserve | Vancouver Canucks: Jack Thompson Injured Reserve, Akil Thomas Injured Reserve, Mackenzie MacEachern Injured Reserve, Thatcher Demko Injured Reserve, Filip Chytil Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892470", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.956033+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892470", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.956033+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2; home: 82 prior regular / 3 current regular; current weight 0.1304. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: New Jersey Devils; Primary: New Jersey Devils; Tighten Up Conservative ON: New Jersey Devils; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: New Jersey Devils. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 0.46951 to 0.634791. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.1102230246251565 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892470", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.1102230246251565e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.003032873806999, 3.4914103923647932 ], "Primary": [ 2.8703416844625473, 3.5051330084093433 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 03:30 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 3 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020071, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T19:30:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/VAN/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Vancouver Canucks", "previousEventId": "401892461", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Carolina Hurricanes", "previousVenue": { "id": "999", "fullName": "Lenovo Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Raleigh", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Prudential Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "New Jersey Devils", "previousEventId": "401892451", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-06T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Utah Mammoth", "previousVenue": { "id": "1826", "fullName": "Prudential Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Newark", "state": "NJ", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 4, "offDays": 3, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Prudential Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Prudential Center; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/VAN/20262027", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892470" ], "tu": { "id": "401892470", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892470", "date": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1826", "fullName": "Prudential Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Newark", "state": "NJ", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "22", "away_name": "Vancouver Canucks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "11", "home_name": "New Jersey Devils", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.82926, "official_team_id": 23 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.75609, "pa": 3.08536, "official_team_id": 1 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8231650000000004, 4.823165 ], "home": [ 1.292675, 5.292675 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Vancouver Canucks at New Jersey Devils", "market": { "id": "401892470", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892470", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.915361+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.151151+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": -102.0, "under_price": -118.0, "home_ml": -285.0, "away_ml": 230.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.4883775185577943, "combined": 6.494443266171793, "spread_buffer": -1.0116224814422057, "total_difference": -0.0055567338282074275 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.4883775185577943, "combined": 6.494443266171793, "spread_buffer": -1.0116224814422057, "total_difference": -0.0055567338282074275 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.6347913239467959, "combined": 6.37547469287189, "spread_buffer": -0.8652086760532041, "total_difference": -0.12452530712810983 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.6347913239467959, "combined": 6.37547469287189, "spread_buffer": -0.8652086760532041, "total_difference": -0.12452530712810983 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.46950999999999965, "combined": 6.11584, "spread_buffer": -1.0304900000000004, "total_difference": -0.3841599999999996 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.46950999999999965, "combined": 6.11584, "spread_buffer": -1.0304900000000004, "total_difference": -0.3841599999999996 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.46950999999999965, "combined": 6.11584, "spread_buffer": -1.0304900000000004, "total_difference": -0.3841599999999996 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.46950999999999965, "combined": 6.11584, "spread_buffer": -1.0304900000000004, "total_difference": -0.3841599999999996 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401861964", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401861964", "date": "2026-10-10T19:45Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3806", "fullName": "Lincoln Financial Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "41", "away_name": "UConn Huskies", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "218", "home_name": "Temple Owls", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 36.916666666666664, 25.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 36.0, 26.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 27.833333333333332, 29.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 25.8, 24.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 31.0, 27.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.0, 27.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.0, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.916666666666664, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": 11.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401757167", "401754618", "401757168", "401757169", "401757170", "401757171", "401754569", "401757172", "401757173", "401754590", "401757174", "401757175" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.0, "pa": 26.2, "margin": 9.8, "event_ids": [ "401861962", "401858444", "401861963", "401861970", "401858252" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 29.666666666666668, "margin": -1.8333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401762456", "401762462", "401752703", "401754542", "401762479", "401762484", "401762489", "401762495", "401762498", "401762503", "401762515", "401762442" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.8, "pa": 24.8, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401862698", "401858442", "401862774", "401862779", "401862792" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 33.291666666666664, 26.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.4, 26.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.171666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34.0, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 34.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.916666666666664, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": 11.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401757167", "401754618", "401757168", "401757169", "401757170", "401757171", "401754569", "401757172", "401757173", "401754590", "401757174", "401757175" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.0, "pa": 26.2, "margin": 9.8, "event_ids": [ "401861962", "401858444", "401861963", "401861970", "401858252" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 29.666666666666668, "margin": -1.8333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401762456", "401762462", "401752703", "401754542", "401762479", "401762484", "401762489", "401762495", "401762498", "401762503", "401762515", "401762442" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.8, "pa": 24.8, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401862698", "401858442", "401862774", "401862779", "401862792" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 33.291666666666664, 26.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.4, 26.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.171666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34.0, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 34.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UConn Huskies", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Temple Owls", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401861964", "matchup": "UConn Huskies at Temple Owls", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "UConn Huskies", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Temple Owls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "UConn Huskies: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Temple Owls: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 34.0175, 26.161666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 33.291666666666664, 26.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.4, 26.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.171666666666667, -0.6716666666666669 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 64, "off_points_proxy": 174, "def_points_proxy": 138, "off_plays": 412, "off_yards": 2632, "def_plays": 484, "def_yards": 2587, "early_plays": 305, "early_yards": 2074, "explosive_plays": 41, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858252", "401858444", "401861962", "401861963", "401861970" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.806451612903226, "def_ppd": 2.15625, "off_ypp": 6.388349514563107, "def_ypp": 5.345041322314049, "early_down_ypp": 6.8 }, "home": { "off_drives": 49, "def_drives": 52, "off_points_proxy": 116, "def_points_proxy": 124, "off_plays": 369, "off_yards": 2373, "def_plays": 408, "def_yards": 2321, "early_plays": 266, "early_yards": 1704, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858442", "401862698", "401862774", "401862779", "401862792" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.36734693877551, "def_ppd": 2.3846153846153846, "off_ypp": 6.430894308943089, "def_ypp": 5.688725490196078, "early_down_ypp": 6.406015037593985 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 5 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Philadelphia&state=PA&site=PHI&textField1=39.9525&textField2=-75.1657&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UConn Huskies", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Temple Owls", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401861964", "matchup": "UConn Huskies at Temple Owls", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "UConn Huskies", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Temple Owls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/218/athletes/4258419/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/218/athletes/4685695/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/218/athletes/4726152/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/218/athletes/5077787/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/218/athletes/5078166/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"name": "Javon Brown", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 202 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/41/athletes/5193720/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870959", "name": "Shamar Porter", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 196 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/41/athletes/4870959/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5125750", "name": "JD Willoughby", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 163 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/41/athletes/5125750/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5222571", "name": "Xavier Watson", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD", "source": 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No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. 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release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -8.2725, "combined": 59.762499999999996, "spread_buffer": -11.7725, "total_difference": 5.262499999999996 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -8.2725, "combined": 59.762499999999996, "spread_buffer": -11.7725, "total_difference": 5.262499999999996 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401861964", "matchup": "UConn Huskies at Temple Owls", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "UConn Huskies", "line": 3.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401861964", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.042176+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.305635+00:00", "home_line": -3.5, "away_line": 3.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 54.5, "under_line": 54.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -180.0, "away_ml": 150.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 11.7725, "production_adjusted": 11.7725, "minimum_all_scenarios": 11.35583333333333, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "directional_buffer": 7.522727272727273, "scenario_minimum": 7.522727272727273 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "directional_buffer": -1.3840424541230938, "scenario_minimum": -1.3840424541230938 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "directional_buffer": 11.7725, "scenario_minimum": 11.7725 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "directional_buffer": 11.7725, "scenario_minimum": 11.7725 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 34.0175, 26.16166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 11.35583333333333, "stressed_buffer": 8.35583333333333 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "directional_buffer": 11.7725, "stressed_buffer": 8.7725 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 34.0175, 26.16166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 11.35583333333333, "stressed_buffer": 8.35583333333333 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 34.0175, 26.161666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 33.291666666666664, 26.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.4, 26.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.171666666666667, -0.6716666666666669 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "UConn Huskies", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Temple Owls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Philadelphia&state=PA&site=PHI&textField1=39.9525&textField2=-75.1657&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:45:00-04:00", "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 72. 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East wind around 5 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UConn Huskies", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Temple Owls", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -8.2725, "combined": 59.762499999999996, "spread_buffer": -11.7725, "total_difference": 5.262499999999996 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -8.2725, "combined": 59.762499999999996, "spread_buffer": -11.7725, "total_difference": 5.262499999999996 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401861964", "matchup": "UConn Huskies at Temple Owls", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "UConn Huskies", "line": 3.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401861964", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.042176+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.305635+00:00", "home_line": -3.5, "away_line": 3.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 54.5, "under_line": 54.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -180.0, "away_ml": 150.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 11.7725, "production_adjusted": 11.7725, "minimum_all_scenarios": 11.35583333333333, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "directional_buffer": 7.522727272727273, "scenario_minimum": 7.522727272727273 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "directional_buffer": -1.3840424541230938, "scenario_minimum": -1.3840424541230938 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "directional_buffer": 11.7725, "scenario_minimum": 11.7725 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "directional_buffer": 11.7725, "scenario_minimum": 11.7725 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 34.0175, 26.16166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 11.35583333333333, "stressed_buffer": 8.35583333333333 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "directional_buffer": 11.7725, "stressed_buffer": 8.7725 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 34.0175, 26.16166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 11.35583333333333, "stressed_buffer": 8.35583333333333 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 34.0175, 26.161666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 33.291666666666664, 26.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.4, 26.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.171666666666667, -0.6716666666666669 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "UConn Huskies", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Temple Owls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Philadelphia&state=PA&site=PHI&textField1=39.9525&textField2=-75.1657&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:45:00-04:00", "window": "Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 5 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UConn Huskies", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Temple Owls", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401866659", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401866659", "date": "2026-10-10T20:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3781", "fullName": "Johnny Unitas Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Towson", "state": "MD", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2619", "away_name": "Stony Brook Seawolves", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "119", "home_name": "Towson Tigers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 30.357954545454543, 27.12689393939394 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.357954545454543, 27.12689393939394 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.357954545454543, 27.12689393939394 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.0, 25.75 ], "current_rates": [ 34.8, 30.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 26.75, 25.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 22.666666666666668, 37.166666666666664 ] } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 27.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 27.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.18722768083512, 31.94020963106951 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.18722768083512, 31.94020963106951 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.18722768083512, 31.94020963106951 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 32.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 32.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.0, "pa": 25.75, "margin": 2.25, "event_ids": [ "401760357", "401767317", "401767322", "401767210", "401767323", "401767324", "401767261", "401767325", "401767193", "401767316", "401767326", "401767139" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.8, "pa": 30.8, "margin": 3.9999999999999964, "event_ids": [ "401866615", "401866622", "401866413", "401866634", "401866648" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.75, "pa": 25.083333333333332, "margin": 1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401767327", "401767328", "401752838", "401767329", "401767032", "401767153", "401767260", "401767325", "401767275", "401767330", "401767331", "401767148" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 37.166666666666664, "margin": -14.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401866532", "401862696", "401856680", "401866640", "401866649", "401866651" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 26.25 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.983333333333334, 26.733333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.9083333333333325, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.0, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.0, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.0, "pa": 25.75, "margin": 2.25, "event_ids": [ "401760357", "401767317", "401767322", "401767210", "401767323", "401767324", "401767261", "401767325", "401767193", "401767316", "401767326", "401767139" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.8, "pa": 30.8, "margin": 3.9999999999999964, "event_ids": [ "401866615", "401866622", "401866413", "401866634", "401866648" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.75, "pa": 25.083333333333332, "margin": 1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401767327", "401767328", "401752838", "401767329", "401767032", "401767153", "401767260", "401767325", "401767275", "401767330", "401767331", "401767148" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 37.166666666666664, "margin": -14.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401866532", "401862696", "401856680", "401866640", "401866649", "401866651" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 26.25 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.983333333333334, 26.733333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.9083333333333325, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.0, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.0, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401866659", "matchup": "Stony Brook Seawolves at Towson Tigers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Towson Tigers: QB Andrew Indorf/Jacob Davis, RB Kemarrion Battles/Xavier Pugh/Tristen Kenan, WR Aaron Enterline/Cleveland Charlton/Jashaun Amin, TE CJ Schaeffer/Peyton Faulkner; Stony Brook Seawolves: QB Quinn Boyd, RB CJ Hester/Jeremiah Coney/Dylan Harris, WR Seth Sweitzer/D.J. Linkins/James Dely, TE Rayden Aphayvong", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.325000000000003 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 26.25 ], "currentMatchup": [ 35.983333333333334, 26.733333333333334 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.9083333333333325, -0.40833333333333255 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 67, "off_points_proxy": 179, "def_points_proxy": 153, "off_plays": 474, "off_yards": 2723, "def_plays": 444, "def_yards": 3039, "early_plays": 339, "early_yards": 1775, "explosive_plays": 37, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866413", "401866615", "401866622", "401866634", "401866648" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.8870967741935485, "def_ppd": 2.283582089552239, "off_ypp": 5.744725738396625, "def_ypp": 6.844594594594595, "early_down_ypp": 5.23598820058997 }, "home": { "off_drives": 66, "def_drives": 67, "off_points_proxy": 141, "def_points_proxy": 203, "off_plays": 488, "off_yards": 2716, "def_plays": 484, "def_yards": 3203, "early_plays": 356, "early_yards": 1836, "explosive_plays": 40, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856680", "401862696", "401866532", "401866640", "401866649", "401866651" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.1363636363636362, "def_ppd": 3.029850746268657, "off_ypp": 5.565573770491803, "def_ypp": 6.617768595041323, "early_down_ypp": 5.157303370786517 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "119", "teamName": "Towson Tigers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866651", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Towson Tigers at Monmouth Hawks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Kessler Stadium", "address": { "city": "West Long Branch", "state": "NJ", "zipCode": "07764", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2405", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "2405", "displayName": "Monmouth Hawks" } }, { "id": "119", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 40.0, "displayValue": "40" }, "team": { "id": "119", "displayName": "Towson Tigers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://towsontigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2619", "teamName": "Stony Brook Seawolves", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866648", "date": "2026-09-26T17:00Z", "name": "Stony Brook Seawolves at Fordham Rams", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field", "address": { "city": "Bronx", "state": "NY", "zipCode": "10458", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2230", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "2230", "displayName": "Fordham Rams" } }, { "id": "2619", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2619", "displayName": "Stony Brook Seawolves" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://stonybrookathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Towson. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Towson&state=MD&site=LWX&textField1=39.395&textField2=-76.6213&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.576824+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Tonight A chance of showers, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 8 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866659", "matchup": "Stony Brook Seawolves at Towson Tigers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Towson&state=MD&site=LWX&textField1=39.395&textField2=-76.6213&e=1", "https://stonybrookathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://towsontigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401866659", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401866659", "date": "2026-10-10T20:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3781", "fullName": "Johnny Unitas Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Towson", "state": "MD", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2619", "away_name": "Stony Brook Seawolves", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "119", "home_name": "Towson Tigers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.0, "pa": 25.75, "margin": 2.25, "event_ids": [ "401760357", "401767317", "401767322", "401767210", "401767323", "401767324", "401767261", "401767325", "401767193", "401767316", "401767326", "401767139" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.8, "pa": 30.8, "margin": 3.9999999999999964, "event_ids": [ "401866615", "401866622", "401866413", "401866634", "401866648" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.75, "pa": 25.083333333333332, "margin": 1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401767327", "401767328", "401752838", "401767329", "401767032", "401767153", "401767260", "401767325", "401767275", "401767330", "401767331", "401767148" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 37.166666666666664, "margin": -14.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401866532", "401862696", "401856680", "401866640", "401866649", "401866651" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 26.25 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.983333333333334, 26.733333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.9083333333333325, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 13.170833333333334, 53.170833333333334 ], "home": [ 6.083333333333336, 46.083333333333336 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401866659", "matchup": "Stony Brook Seawolves at Towson Tigers", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T20:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3781", "guid": "6e740bbe-ed5c-3888-857b-34f8da327fec", "fullName": "Johnny Unitas Stadium", "address": { "city": "Towson", "state": "MD", "zipCode": "21204", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "119", "teamName": "Towson Tigers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "Base season scoring already mostly reflects Barben and Hill absence. Do not call additional -3 an empirical injury delta or repeat an extra statistical penalty." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868156", "matchup": "Utah Tech Trailblazers at Portland State Vikings", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "names": [ "Deacon Hill" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "source": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/news/2026/10/6/football-trailblazers-hit-the-road-for-saturday-big-sky-match-up-at-portland-state.aspx" } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Portland State Vikings: QB John-Keawe Sagapolutele/Gabe Downing, RB Delon Thompson/Niall Raby, WR Terence Loville/Jason Robinson Jr./Darius Bailey, TE Tanner Beaman/Tyson Hunt; Utah Tech Trailblazers: QB Bronson Barben/Deacon Hill, RB Ace Chatman/Kona Crowell/Cavalli Nealy, WR Darnell O'Quinn/Zay Morris/Ja'Kheo Mitchell, TE Justin Buhler", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.43333333333334, 33.88333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.333333333333332, 22.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.1, 33.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.2166666666666672, 0.28333333333333277 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 74, "def_drives": 69, "off_points_proxy": 106, "def_points_proxy": 235, "off_plays": 501, "off_yards": 3013, "def_plays": 473, "def_yards": 3448, "early_plays": 355, "early_yards": 1800, "explosive_plays": 41, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856775", "401868112", "401868118", "401868124", "401868131", "401868160" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.4324324324324325, "def_ppd": 3.4057971014492754, "off_ypp": 6.013972055888224, "def_ypp": 7.289640591966173, "early_down_ypp": 5.070422535211268 }, "home": { "off_drives": 69, "def_drives": 67, "off_points_proxy": 113, "def_points_proxy": 244, "off_plays": 429, "off_yards": 2406, "def_plays": 437, "def_yards": 3560, "early_plays": 305, "early_yards": 1764, "explosive_plays": 34, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858455", "401860879", "401867876", "401868154", "401868155" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.6376811594202898, "def_ppd": 3.6417910447761193, "off_ypp": 5.608391608391608, "def_ypp": 8.14645308924485, "early_down_ypp": 5.783606557377049 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2502", "teamName": "Portland State Vikings", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868155", "date": "2026-09-27T00:00Z", "name": "Portland State Vikings at Weber State Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-27T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Stewart Stadium", "address": { "city": "Ogden", "state": "UT", "zipCode": "84408", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2692", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "2692", "displayName": "Weber State Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2502", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "2502", "displayName": "Portland State Vikings" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 13.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goviks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "3101", "teamName": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868160", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Utah Tech Trailblazers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Greater Zion Stadium", "address": { "city": "Saint George", "state": "UT", "zipCode": "84770", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "3101", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "3101", "displayName": "Utah Tech Trailblazers" } }, { "id": "253", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 46.0, "displayValue": "46" }, "team": { "id": "253", "displayName": "Southern Utah Thunderbirds" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Portland. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Portland&state=OR&site=PQR&textField1=45.5236&textField2=-122.675&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.583848+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 50. Calm wind. Saturday A chance of rain between 8am and 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Light north northwest wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "Base season scoring already mostly reflects Barben and Hill absence. Do not call additional -3 an empirical injury delta or repeat an extra statistical penalty." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868156", "matchup": "Utah Tech Trailblazers at Portland State Vikings", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "names": [ "Deacon Hill" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "source": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/news/2026/10/6/football-trailblazers-hit-the-road-for-saturday-big-sky-match-up-at-portland-state.aspx" } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Portland&state=OR&site=PQR&textField1=45.5236&textField2=-122.675&e=1", "https://goviks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/news/2026/10/6/football-trailblazers-hit-the-road-for-saturday-big-sky-match-up-at-portland-state.aspx", "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868156", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868156", "date": "2026-10-10T20:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "4765", "fullName": "Hillsboro Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Portland", "state": "OR", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "3101", "away_name": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2502", "home_name": "Portland State Vikings", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.0, "pa": 29.333333333333332, "margin": -13.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767156", "401767112", "401767090", "401767308", "401767249", "401769869", "401767307", "401767295", "401767288", "401767245", "401767303", "401767284" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 15.0, "pa": 45.0, "margin": -30.0, "event_ids": [ "401868118", "401856775", "401868112", "401868124", "401868131", "401868160" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.166666666666668, "pa": 42.666666666666664, "margin": -26.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401767126", "401756851", "401767127", "401760370", "401767115", "401767063", "401767128", "401767093", "401767076", "401767129", "401767103", "401767125" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 22.2, "pa": 51.2, "margin": -29.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401868154", "401860879", "401867876", "401858455", "401868155" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.333333333333332, 22.75 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.1, 33.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.2166666666666672, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 12.433333333333337, 52.43333333333334 ], "home": [ 8.458333333333332, 48.45833333333333 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868156", "matchup": "Utah Tech Trailblazers at Portland State Vikings", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T20:00Z", "venue": { "id": "4765", "guid": "452f480a-3d7e-3a9c-8e9d-9f6b592c8545", "fullName": "Hillsboro Stadium", "address": { "city": "Portland", "state": "OR", "zipCode": "97124", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2502", "teamName": "Portland State Vikings", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868155", "date": "2026-09-27T00:00Z", "name": "Portland State Vikings at Weber State Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-27T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Stewart Stadium", "address": { "city": "Ogden", "state": "UT", "zipCode": "84408", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2692", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "2692", "displayName": "Weber State Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2502", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "2502", "displayName": "Portland State Vikings" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 13.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goviks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "3101", "teamName": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868160", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Utah Tech Trailblazers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Greater Zion Stadium", "address": { "city": "Saint George", "state": "UT", "zipCode": "84770", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "3101", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "3101", "displayName": "Utah Tech Trailblazers" } }, { "id": "253", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 46.0, "displayValue": "46" }, "team": { "id": "253", "displayName": "Southern Utah Thunderbirds" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Portland. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2502", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#3101" ], "finding": "Portland State Vikings: QB John-Keawe Sagapolutele/Gabe Downing, RB Delon Thompson/Niall Raby, WR Terence Loville/Jason Robinson Jr./Darius Bailey, TE Tanner Beaman/Tyson Hunt; Utah Tech Trailblazers: QB Bronson Barben/Deacon Hill, RB Ace Chatman/Kona Crowell/Cavalli Nealy, WR Darnell O'Quinn/Zay Morris/Ja'Kheo Mitchell, TE Justin Buhler" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2502", "teamName": "Portland State Vikings", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868155", "date": "2026-09-27T00:00Z", "name": "Portland State Vikings at Weber State Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-27T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Stewart Stadium", "address": { "city": "Ogden", "state": "UT", "zipCode": "84408", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2692", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "2692", "displayName": "Weber State Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2502", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "2502", "displayName": "Portland State Vikings" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 13.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goviks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "3101", "teamName": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868160", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Utah Tech Trailblazers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Greater Zion Stadium", "address": { "city": "Saint George", "state": "UT", "zipCode": "84770", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "3101", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "3101", "displayName": "Utah Tech Trailblazers" } }, { "id": "253", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 46.0, "displayValue": "46" }, "team": { "id": "253", "displayName": "Southern Utah Thunderbirds" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Portland. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Portland&state=OR&site=PQR&textField1=45.5236&textField2=-122.675&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.583848+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 50. Calm wind. Saturday A chance of rain between 8am and 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Light north northwest wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "CONDITIONAL AVAILABILITY: Deacon Hill: CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [ { "eventId": "401868156", "teamId": "3101", "teamName": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "incumbent": "Deacon Hill", "replacement": "Bronson Barben", "role": "QB", "source": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/news/2026/10/6/football-trailblazers-hit-the-road-for-saturday-big-sky-match-up-at-portland-state.aspx", "sourceDate": "2026-10-06", "status": "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "trigger": "Hill made his first start in over two seasons Oct3 and departed late in Q2 injured; Barben replaced him. Material restricted/unavailable Hill branch qualifies for the authorized human assumption, not an invented medical OUT.", "history": { "Deacon Hill": { "2024": "Utah Tech: 4 starts in first five team games, 36/75, 412 yards, 2 TD, INT; 10 rushes/5 yards/TD. Rest of season injured.", "2025": "Utah Tech: missed whole season injured; no production.", "2026": "Utah Tech: 14/25, 276 yards, TD, INT; 4 rushes/25 yards. First start Oct3, 9/17 for 226 yards and TD before injury." }, "Bronson Barben": { "2024": "Utah Tech: 4 games/3 starts, 58/114, 574 yards official bio (575 ESPN discrepancy retained), 4 TD, 2 INT; 35 rushes/60 yards.", "2025": "Utah Tech: 10 games/9 starts, 169/288, 1682 yards, 6 TD, 12 INT; 52 rushes/126 yards/TD.", "2026": "Utah Tech: 89/166, 1029 yards, 3 TD, 5 INT; 31 rushes/58 yards/TD. Oct3 relief 11/21,165 yards,TD." } }, "familiarity": "Both have Utah Tech experience since 2024 under Lance Anderson; Barben started nine games in 2025 and several in 2026. Protection-call/practice performance unreported; no unfamiliarity penalty invented.", "opportunityChange": "Potential full-game passing workload for Barben rather than Hill; exact attempt redistribution unestimated.", "offensiveLine": "Official Oct6 preview reports 1.33 sacks allowed/game (tied second Big Sky); no incremental line availability effect established.", "opponentContext": "Portland State coming off bye after Sept26 win; defense/venue already handled by registered team engine.", "doubleCounting": "Base season scoring already mostly reflects Barben and Hill absence. Do not call additional -3 an empirical injury delta or repeat an extra statistical penalty.", "statisticalReplacementAdjustment": null, "statisticalReplacementForecast": "Registered baseline retained as proxy; player-specific conversion unestimated.", "branches": [ { "condition": "Hill fully available in reference starting role", "humanDeduction": 0 }, { "condition": "Hill unavailable/materially limited with Barben replacing reference role", "humanDeduction": -3 } ], "appliedConservativeSensitivity": -3, "overlayVersion": "football-replacement-human-v1", "reviewedUTC": "2026-10-10T10:13:05.267848+00:00", "additionalIndependentAdjustment": 0, "opponentPointAdjustment": 0, "jointScenario": "Only one qualifying covered-role scenario identified for this team. Joint scenario equals isolated -3 branch; no stacked QB/WR or injury-headcount deductions.", "gateOutcome": "Pre-price: retain PASS_PENDING_GATES. Parent must evaluate base and both availability branches in each of the four configurations after immutable freeze; any selection failing applicable branch becomes PASS, never opposite-side promotion.", "scoreExpression": "adjusted team points = retained registered baseline - 3.0 in qualifying branch; available branch = baseline. Statistical replacement-specific conversion is unestimated, not proven zero.", "baseAndAdjustedScores": "Parent-owned model means pending; attach by eventId and teamId without changing registered arithmetic.", "advancedUncertainty": [ "routes/targets and verified drops unavailable", "exact game-day snap allocation unconfirmed", "no calibrated player-to-score conversion", "protection-call experience and full practice participation unavailable" ] } ] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.43333333333334, 33.88333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.333333333333332, 22.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.1, 33.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.2166666666666672, 0.28333333333333277 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Utah Tech Trailblazers at Portland State Vikings", "market": { "id": "401868156", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868156", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.074631+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.392310+00:00", "home_line": -9.5, "away_line": 9.5, "home_line_price": 103.0, "away_line_price": -128.0, "total": 61.5, "under_line": 61.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -303.0, "away_ml": 232.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -9.5, "average_total": 61.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -1.484848484848488, "combined": 59.06060606060606, "spread_buffer": -10.984848484848488, "total_difference": -2.4393939393939377 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -1.484848484848488, "combined": 59.06060606060606, "spread_buffer": -10.984848484848488, "total_difference": -2.4393939393939377 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 6.746250884862498, "combined": 57.53580445489282, "spread_buffer": -2.753749115137502, "total_difference": -3.964195545107181 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.746250884862498, "combined": 57.53580445489282, "spread_buffer": -2.753749115137502, "total_difference": -3.964195545107181 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -3.975000000000005, "combined": 60.891666666666666, "spread_buffer": -13.475000000000005, "total_difference": -0.6083333333333343 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -3.975000000000005, "combined": 60.891666666666666, "spread_buffer": -13.475000000000005, "total_difference": -0.6083333333333343 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868156", "matchup": "Utah Tech Trailblazers at Portland State Vikings", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "ON_UNRESOLVED_MEDIUM_AVAILABILITY" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "line": 9.5, "price": -128.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868156", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.074631+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.392310+00:00", "home_line": -9.5, "away_line": 9.5, "home_line_price": 103.0, "away_line_price": -128.0, "total": 61.5, "under_line": 61.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -303.0, "away_ml": 232.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 13.475000000000005, "production_adjusted": 13.475000000000005, "minimum_all_scenarios": 5.049999999999997, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.272727272727273, 28.787878787878785 ], "directional_buffer": 10.984848484848488, "scenario_minimum": 7.984848484848488 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.39477678501516, 32.14102766987766 ], "directional_buffer": 2.753749115137502, "scenario_minimum": -0.2462508848624978 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 13.475000000000005, "scenario_minimum": 10.475000000000005 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 13.475000000000005, "scenario_minimum": 10.475000000000005 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.433333333333337, 33.88333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 5.049999999999997, "stressed_buffer": 2.049999999999997 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 29.433333333333337, 28.458333333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 10.475000000000005, "stressed_buffer": 7.475000000000005 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 13.475000000000005, "stressed_buffer": 10.475000000000005 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.433333333333337, 33.88333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 5.049999999999997, "stressed_buffer": 2.049999999999997 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.43333333333334, 33.88333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 8.049999999999997, "stressed_buffer": 5.049999999999997 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.43333333333334, 33.88333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.333333333333332, 22.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.1, 33.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.2166666666666672, 0.28333333333333277 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "names": [ "Deacon Hill" ], "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "source": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/news/2026/10/6/football-trailblazers-hit-the-road-for-saturday-big-sky-match-up-at-portland-state.aspx" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Portland&state=OR&site=PQR&textField1=45.5236&textField2=-122.675&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-07:00", "window": "A chance of rain between 8am and 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "Base season scoring already mostly reflects Barben and Hill absence. Do not call additional -3 an empirical injury delta or repeat an extra statistical penalty." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868156", "matchup": "Utah Tech Trailblazers at Portland State Vikings", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 61.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868156", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.074631+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.392310+00:00", "home_line": -9.5, "away_line": 9.5, "home_line_price": 103.0, "away_line_price": -128.0, "total": 61.5, "under_line": 61.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -303.0, "away_ml": 232.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 0.6083333333333343, "production_adjusted": 0.6083333333333343, "minimum_all_scenarios": -4.816666666666677, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.272727272727273, 28.787878787878785 ], "directional_buffer": 2.4393939393939377, "scenario_minimum": 2.4393939393939377 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.39477678501516, 32.14102766987766 ], "directional_buffer": 3.964195545107181, "scenario_minimum": 3.964195545107181 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6083333333333343, "scenario_minimum": 0.6083333333333343 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6083333333333343, "scenario_minimum": 0.6083333333333343 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.43333333333334, 33.88333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": -4.816666666666677, "stressed_buffer": -7.816666666666677 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 29.433333333333337, 28.458333333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6083333333333343, "stressed_buffer": 0.6083333333333343 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6083333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -2.3916666666666657 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.433333333333337, 33.88333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": -1.816666666666677, "stressed_buffer": -4.816666666666677 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.43333333333334, 33.88333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": -4.816666666666677, "stressed_buffer": -7.816666666666677 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.43333333333334, 33.88333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.333333333333332, 22.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.1, 33.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.2166666666666672, 0.28333333333333277 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "names": [ "Deacon Hill" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "source": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/news/2026/10/6/football-trailblazers-hit-the-road-for-saturday-big-sky-match-up-at-portland-state.aspx" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Portland&state=OR&site=PQR&textField1=45.5236&textField2=-122.675&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-07:00", "window": "A chance of rain between 8am and 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "Base season scoring already mostly reflects Barben and Hill absence. Do not call additional -3 an empirical injury delta or repeat an extra statistical penalty." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -3.975000000000005, "combined": 60.891666666666666, "spread_buffer": -13.475000000000005, "total_difference": -0.6083333333333343 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -3.975000000000005, "combined": 60.891666666666666, "spread_buffer": -13.475000000000005, "total_difference": -0.6083333333333343 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868156", "matchup": "Utah Tech Trailblazers at Portland State Vikings", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "line": 9.5, "price": -128.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868156", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.074631+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.392310+00:00", "home_line": -9.5, "away_line": 9.5, "home_line_price": 103.0, "away_line_price": -128.0, "total": 61.5, "under_line": 61.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -303.0, "away_ml": 232.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 13.475000000000005, "production_adjusted": 13.475000000000005, "minimum_all_scenarios": 5.049999999999997, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.272727272727273, 28.787878787878785 ], "directional_buffer": 10.984848484848488, "scenario_minimum": 7.984848484848488 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.39477678501516, 32.14102766987766 ], "directional_buffer": 2.753749115137502, "scenario_minimum": -0.2462508848624978 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 13.475000000000005, "scenario_minimum": 10.475000000000005 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 13.475000000000005, "scenario_minimum": 10.475000000000005 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.433333333333337, 33.88333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 5.049999999999997, "stressed_buffer": 2.049999999999997 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 29.433333333333337, 28.458333333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 10.475000000000005, "stressed_buffer": 7.475000000000005 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 13.475000000000005, "stressed_buffer": 10.475000000000005 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.433333333333337, 33.88333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 5.049999999999997, "stressed_buffer": 2.049999999999997 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.43333333333334, 33.88333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 8.049999999999997, "stressed_buffer": 5.049999999999997 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.43333333333334, 33.88333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.333333333333332, 22.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.1, 33.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.2166666666666672, 0.28333333333333277 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "names": [ "Deacon Hill" ], "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "source": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/news/2026/10/6/football-trailblazers-hit-the-road-for-saturday-big-sky-match-up-at-portland-state.aspx" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Portland&state=OR&site=PQR&textField1=45.5236&textField2=-122.675&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-07:00", "window": "A chance of rain between 8am and 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "Base season scoring already mostly reflects Barben and Hill absence. Do not call additional -3 an empirical injury delta or repeat an extra statistical penalty." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868156", "matchup": "Utah Tech Trailblazers at Portland State Vikings", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 61.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868156", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.074631+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.392310+00:00", "home_line": -9.5, "away_line": 9.5, "home_line_price": 103.0, "away_line_price": -128.0, "total": 61.5, "under_line": 61.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -303.0, "away_ml": 232.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 0.6083333333333343, "production_adjusted": 0.6083333333333343, "minimum_all_scenarios": -4.816666666666677, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.272727272727273, 28.787878787878785 ], "directional_buffer": 2.4393939393939377, "scenario_minimum": 2.4393939393939377 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.39477678501516, 32.14102766987766 ], "directional_buffer": 3.964195545107181, "scenario_minimum": 3.964195545107181 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6083333333333343, "scenario_minimum": 0.6083333333333343 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6083333333333343, "scenario_minimum": 0.6083333333333343 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.43333333333334, 33.88333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": -4.816666666666677, "stressed_buffer": -7.816666666666677 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 29.433333333333337, 28.458333333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 3.6083333333333343, "stressed_buffer": 0.6083333333333343 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6083333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -2.3916666666666657 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.433333333333337, 33.88333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": -1.816666666666677, "stressed_buffer": -4.816666666666677 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.43333333333334, 33.88333333333334 ], "directional_buffer": -4.816666666666677, "stressed_buffer": -7.816666666666677 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.43333333333334, 33.88333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.333333333333332, 22.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.1, 33.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.2166666666666672, 0.28333333333333277 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "names": [ "Deacon Hill" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "source": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/news/2026/10/6/football-trailblazers-hit-the-road-for-saturday-big-sky-match-up-at-portland-state.aspx" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Portland&state=OR&site=PQR&textField1=45.5236&textField2=-122.675&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-07:00", "window": "A chance of rain between 8am and 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "Base season scoring already mostly reflects Barben and Hill absence. Do not call additional -3 an empirical injury delta or repeat an extra statistical penalty." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401868968", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868968", "date": "2026-10-10T20:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "5238", "fullName": "Panther Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Prairie View", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2582", "away_name": "Southern Jaguars", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2504", "home_name": "Prairie View A&M Panthers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.017628205128204, 33.0400641025641 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.017628205128204, 33.0400641025641 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.017628205128204, 33.0400641025641 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 18.583333333333332, 36.083333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 22.333333333333332, 38.166666666666664 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 31.076923076923077, 16.153846153846153 ], "current_rates": [ 23.833333333333332, 30.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 21.0, 33.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 33.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 14.988368633079567, 36.603558288374806 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.988368633079567, 36.603558288374806 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.988368633079567, 36.603558288374806 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 15.0, 36.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15.0, 36.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.583333333333332, "pa": 36.083333333333336, "margin": -17.500000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767410", "401767425", "401767359", "401760369", "401767422", "401767390", "401767434", "401767456", "401767385", "401767376", "401767457", "401767420" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.333333333333332, "pa": 38.166666666666664, "margin": -15.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868324", "401868970", "401856787", "401868971", "401868960", "401868936" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.076923076923077, "pa": 16.153846153846153, "margin": 14.923076923076923, "event_ids": [ "401767431", "401767432", "401762466", "401767433", "401767417", "401767371", "401767434", "401767435", "401767364", "401767356", "401767387", "401767430", "401777350" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.833333333333332, "pa": 30.0, "margin": -6.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401868967", "401856784", "401868307", "401868954", "401868965" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 17.368589743589745, 33.580128205128204 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.166666666666664, 31.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.208974358974359, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 38.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 38.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.583333333333332, "pa": 36.083333333333336, "margin": -17.500000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767410", "401767425", "401767359", "401760369", "401767422", "401767390", "401767434", "401767456", "401767385", "401767376", "401767457", "401767420" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.333333333333332, "pa": 38.166666666666664, "margin": -15.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868324", "401868970", "401856787", "401868971", "401868960", "401868936" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.076923076923077, "pa": 16.153846153846153, "margin": 14.923076923076923, "event_ids": [ "401767431", "401767432", "401762466", "401767433", "401767417", "401767371", "401767434", "401767435", "401767364", "401767356", "401767387", "401767430", "401777350" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.833333333333332, "pa": 30.0, "margin": -6.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401868967", "401856784", "401868307", "401868954", "401868965" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 17.368589743589745, 33.580128205128204 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.166666666666664, 31.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.208974358974359, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 38.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 38.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868968", "matchup": "Southern Jaguars at Prairie View A&M Panthers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Prairie View A&M Panthers: QB Tevin Carter, RB Jahbari Kuykendall/Chase Bingmon/Zayvion Turner-Knox, WR Rodny Ojo/Damien McDaniel/Chaney Fitzgerald, TE Travon Jones/Kheagian Heckaman; Southern Jaguars: QB Christian Johnson/Wyatt McCauley, RB Trey Holly/Macario Dade Jr./Mike Franklin, WR Daejawn Smith/Miles Dixon/Floyd Jones, TE Emeka Iloh/Jermaine Minor Jr.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 21.957692307692305, 37.99903846153846 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 17.368589743589745, 33.580128205128204 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.166666666666664, 31.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.208974358974359, 5.708974358974359 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 74, "def_drives": 74, "off_points_proxy": 133, "def_points_proxy": 228, "off_plays": 501, "off_yards": 2847, "def_plays": 455, "def_yards": 3461, "early_plays": 348, "early_yards": 2064, "explosive_plays": 43, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856787", "401868324", "401868936", "401868960", "401868970", "401868971" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.7972972972972974, "def_ppd": 3.081081081081081, "off_ypp": 5.682634730538922, "def_ypp": 7.606593406593406, "early_down_ypp": 5.931034482758621 }, "home": { "off_drives": 77, "def_drives": 72, "off_points_proxy": 133, "def_points_proxy": 174, "off_plays": 557, "off_yards": 2965, "def_plays": 467, "def_yards": 2788, "early_plays": 388, "early_yards": 1974, "explosive_plays": 43, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856784", "401868235", "401868307", "401868954", "401868965", "401868967" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.7272727272727273, "def_ppd": 2.4166666666666665, "off_ypp": 5.3231597845601435, "def_ypp": 5.970021413276231, "early_down_ypp": 5.087628865979381 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2504", "teamName": "Prairie View A&M Panthers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868965", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Prairie View A&M Panthers at Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Rice-Totten Stadium", "address": { "city": "Itta Bena", "state": "MS", "zipCode": "38941", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2400", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2400", "displayName": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils" } }, { "id": "2504", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "2504", "displayName": "Prairie View A&M Panthers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://pvpanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2582", "teamName": "Southern Jaguars", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868936", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Southern Jaguars", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "A.W. Mumford Stadium", "address": { "city": "Baton Rouge", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "70807", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2582", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2582", "displayName": "Southern Jaguars" } }, { "id": "2029", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "2029", "displayName": "Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gojagsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Prairie View. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Prairie+View&state=TX&site=HGX&textField1=30.0832&textField2=-95.9891&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.188491+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the morning. Tonight Clear, with a low around 67. South wind around 5 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868968", "matchup": "Southern Jaguars at Prairie View A&M Panthers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Prairie+View&state=TX&site=HGX&textField1=30.0832&textField2=-95.9891&e=0", "https://gojagsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://pvpanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868968", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868968", "date": "2026-10-10T20:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "5238", "fullName": "Panther Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Prairie View", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2582", "away_name": "Southern Jaguars", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2504", "home_name": "Prairie View A&M Panthers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.583333333333332, "pa": 36.083333333333336, "margin": -17.500000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767410", "401767425", "401767359", "401760369", "401767422", "401767390", "401767434", "401767456", "401767385", "401767376", "401767457", "401767420" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.333333333333332, "pa": 38.166666666666664, "margin": -15.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868324", "401868970", "401856787", "401868971", "401868960", "401868936" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.076923076923077, "pa": 16.153846153846153, "margin": 14.923076923076923, "event_ids": [ "401767431", "401767432", "401762466", "401767433", "401767417", "401767371", "401767434", "401767435", "401767364", "401767356", "401767387", "401767430", "401777350" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.833333333333332, "pa": 30.0, "margin": -6.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401868967", "401856784", "401868307", "401868954", "401868965" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 17.368589743589745, 33.580128205128204 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.166666666666664, 31.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.208974358974359, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0, 37.558653846153845 ], "home": [ 17.99903846153846, 57.99903846153846 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868968", "matchup": "Southern Jaguars at Prairie View A&M Panthers", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T20:00Z", "venue": { "id": "5238", "guid": "45211dda-7c1f-3816-a638-61ebb57fd18d", "fullName": "Panther Stadium", "address": { "city": "Prairie View", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "77446", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2504", "teamName": "Prairie View A&M Panthers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868965", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Prairie View A&M Panthers at Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Rice-Totten Stadium", "address": { "city": "Itta Bena", "state": "MS", "zipCode": "38941", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2400", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2400", "displayName": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils" } }, { "id": "2504", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "2504", "displayName": "Prairie View A&M Panthers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://pvpanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2582", "teamName": "Southern Jaguars", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868936", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Southern Jaguars", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "A.W. Mumford Stadium", "address": { "city": "Baton Rouge", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "70807", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2582", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2582", "displayName": "Southern Jaguars" } }, { "id": "2029", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "2029", "displayName": "Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gojagsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Prairie View. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2504", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2582" ], "finding": "Prairie View A&M Panthers: QB Tevin Carter, RB Jahbari Kuykendall/Chase Bingmon/Zayvion Turner-Knox, WR Rodny Ojo/Damien McDaniel/Chaney Fitzgerald, TE Travon Jones/Kheagian Heckaman; Southern Jaguars: QB Christian Johnson/Wyatt McCauley, RB Trey Holly/Macario Dade Jr./Mike Franklin, WR Daejawn Smith/Miles Dixon/Floyd Jones, TE Emeka Iloh/Jermaine Minor Jr." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2504", "teamName": "Prairie View A&M Panthers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868965", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Prairie View A&M Panthers at Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Rice-Totten Stadium", "address": { "city": "Itta Bena", "state": "MS", "zipCode": "38941", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2400", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2400", "displayName": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils" } }, { "id": "2504", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "2504", "displayName": "Prairie View A&M Panthers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://pvpanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2582", "teamName": "Southern Jaguars", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868936", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Southern Jaguars", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "A.W. Mumford Stadium", "address": { "city": "Baton Rouge", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "70807", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2582", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2582", "displayName": "Southern Jaguars" } }, { "id": "2029", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "2029", "displayName": "Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gojagsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Prairie View. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Prairie+View&state=TX&site=HGX&textField1=30.0832&textField2=-95.9891&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.188491+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the morning. Tonight Clear, with a low around 67. South wind around 5 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 21.957692307692305, 37.99903846153846 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 17.368589743589745, 33.580128205128204 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.166666666666664, 31.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.208974358974359, 5.708974358974359 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Southern Jaguars at Prairie View A&M Panthers", "market": { "id": "401868968", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868968", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.118445+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.380267+00:00", "home_line": -15.5, "away_line": 15.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 56.5, "under_line": 56.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -780.0, "away_ml": 501.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -15.5, "average_total": 56.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 12.022435897435898, "combined": 54.05769230769231, "spread_buffer": -3.477564102564102, "total_difference": -2.4423076923076934 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 12.022435897435898, "combined": 54.05769230769231, "spread_buffer": -3.477564102564102, "total_difference": -2.4423076923076934 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 21.61518965529524, "combined": 51.59192692145437, "spread_buffer": 6.115189655295239, "total_difference": -4.908073078545627 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 21.61518965529524, "combined": 51.59192692145437, "spread_buffer": 6.115189655295239, "total_difference": -4.908073078545627 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 20.440384615384616, "combined": 55.55769230769231, "spread_buffer": 4.940384615384616, "total_difference": -0.9423076923076934 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 20.440384615384616, "combined": 55.55769230769231, "spread_buffer": 4.940384615384616, "total_difference": -0.9423076923076934 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868968", "matchup": "Southern Jaguars at Prairie View A&M Panthers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Prairie View A&M Panthers", "line": -15.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868968", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.118445+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.380267+00:00", "home_line": -15.5, "away_line": 15.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 56.5, "under_line": 56.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -780.0, "away_ml": 501.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 4.940384615384616, "production_adjusted": 4.940384615384616, "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.5413461538461561, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.017628205128204, 33.0400641025641 ], "directional_buffer": -3.477564102564102, "scenario_minimum": -3.477564102564102 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 14.988368633079567, 36.603558288374806 ], "directional_buffer": 6.115189655295239, "scenario_minimum": 6.115189655295239 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "directional_buffer": 4.940384615384616, "scenario_minimum": 4.940384615384616 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "directional_buffer": 4.940384615384616, "scenario_minimum": 4.940384615384616 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 21.957692307692305, 37.99903846153846 ], "directional_buffer": 0.5413461538461561, "stressed_buffer": -2.458653846153844 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "directional_buffer": 4.940384615384616, "stressed_buffer": 1.940384615384616 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 21.957692307692305, 37.99903846153846 ], "directional_buffer": 0.5413461538461561, "stressed_buffer": -2.458653846153844 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 21.957692307692305, 37.99903846153846 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.666666666666668, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 0.16666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401767476", "401767059", "401762467", "401767114", "401767240", "401767477", "401767462", "401767478", "401767479", "401767480", "401767481", "401767475" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.0, "pa": 33.2, "margin": 0.7999999999999972, "event_ids": [ "401913104", "401868123", "401869147", "401860892", "401868309" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 22.46153846153846, "pa": 23.0, "margin": -0.5384615384615401, "event_ids": [ "401762435", "401767482", "401767458", "401767483", "401767484", "401767461", "401767485", "401767486", "401767479", "401767487", "401767488", "401767489", "401833969" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 28.4, "pa": 20.2, "margin": 8.2, "event_ids": [ "401868049", "401869142", "401868093", "401869143", "401869131" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.333333333333336, 23.98076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.1, 30.8 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.6694871794871795, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.0, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.0, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401869144", "matchup": "Incarnate Word Cardinals at Lamar Cardinals", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Lamar Cardinals: QB Aiden McCown/Evan Bullock, RB LaDamion McDowell/Parker Jenkins/Jameer Muhammad, WR Blake Thomas/Brit Simmons/Jaydn Girard, TE Davin Driskell/Justin Neal; Incarnate Word Cardinals: QB Emmett Brown/Jackson Fields, RB Jayden Hibbler/Lontrell Turner/Damashja Harris, WR Isaiah Champagne/Price Morgan/Zach Phipps, TE no primary receiver established", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 26.43051282051282, 29.559871794871796 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.333333333333336, 23.98076923076923 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.1, 30.8 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.6694871794871795, 2.1694871794871795 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 70, "def_drives": 73, "off_points_proxy": 152, "def_points_proxy": 166, "off_plays": 499, "off_yards": 3080, "def_plays": 442, "def_yards": 2759, "early_plays": 359, "early_yards": 2207, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401860892", "401868123", "401868309", "401869147", "401913104" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.1714285714285713, "def_ppd": 2.2739726027397262, "off_ypp": 6.1723446893787575, "def_ypp": 6.242081447963801, "early_down_ypp": 6.147632311977716 }, "home": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 60, "off_points_proxy": 128, "def_points_proxy": 107, "off_plays": 359, "off_yards": 2292, "def_plays": 431, "def_yards": 2354, "early_plays": 271, "early_yards": 1728, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868049", "401868093", "401869131", "401869142", "401869143" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.206896551724138, "def_ppd": 1.7833333333333334, "off_ypp": 6.3844011142061285, "def_ypp": 5.461716937354988, "early_down_ypp": 6.376383763837638 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2320", "teamName": "Lamar Cardinals", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401869131", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Northwestern State Demons at Lamar Cardinals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Provost Umphrey Stadium", "address": { "city": "Beaumont", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "77705", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2320", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2320", "displayName": "Lamar Cardinals" } }, { "id": "2466", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2466", "displayName": "Northwestern State Demons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://lamarcardinals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2916", "teamName": "Incarnate Word Cardinals", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868309", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Incarnate Word Cardinals at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Homer Bryce Stadium", "address": { "city": "Nacogdoches", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "75961", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2617", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2617", "displayName": "Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks" } }, { "id": "2916", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 26.0, "displayValue": "26" }, "team": { "id": "2916", "displayName": "Incarnate Word Cardinals" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://uiwcardinals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Beaumont. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Beaumont&state=TX&site=LCH&textField1=30.0878&textField2=-94.1445&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.713936+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 87. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Tonight Clear, with a low around 64. Calm wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401869144", "matchup": "Incarnate Word Cardinals at Lamar Cardinals", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Beaumont&state=TX&site=LCH&textField1=30.0878&textField2=-94.1445&e=1", "https://lamarcardinals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://uiwcardinals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401869144", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401869144", "date": "2026-10-10T20:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3882", "fullName": "Provost Umphrey Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Beaumont", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2916", "away_name": "Incarnate Word Cardinals", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2320", "home_name": "Lamar Cardinals", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.666666666666668, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 0.16666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401767476", "401767059", "401762467", "401767114", "401767240", "401767477", "401767462", "401767478", "401767479", "401767480", "401767481", "401767475" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.0, "pa": 33.2, "margin": 0.7999999999999972, "event_ids": [ "401913104", "401868123", "401869147", "401860892", "401868309" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 22.46153846153846, "pa": 23.0, "margin": -0.5384615384615401, "event_ids": [ "401762435", "401767482", "401767458", "401767483", "401767484", "401767461", "401767485", "401767486", "401767479", "401767487", "401767488", "401767489", "401833969" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 28.4, "pa": 20.2, "margin": 8.2, "event_ids": [ "401868049", "401869142", "401868093", "401869143", "401869131" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.333333333333336, 23.98076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.1, 30.8 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.6694871794871795, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 5.047179487179488, 45.04717948717949 ], "home": [ 9.559871794871796, 49.559871794871796 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401869144", "matchup": "Incarnate Word Cardinals at Lamar Cardinals", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T20:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3882", "guid": "ca17d1cf-6290-369e-aa1e-945040081b23", "fullName": "Provost Umphrey Stadium", "address": { "city": "Beaumont", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "77705", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2320", "teamName": "Lamar Cardinals", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401869131", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Northwestern State Demons at Lamar Cardinals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Provost Umphrey Stadium", "address": { "city": "Beaumont", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "77705", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2320", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2320", "displayName": "Lamar Cardinals" } }, { "id": "2466", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2466", "displayName": "Northwestern State Demons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://lamarcardinals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2916", "teamName": "Incarnate Word Cardinals", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868309", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Incarnate Word Cardinals at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Homer Bryce Stadium", "address": { "city": "Nacogdoches", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "75961", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2617", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2617", "displayName": "Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks" } }, { "id": "2916", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 26.0, "displayValue": "26" }, "team": { "id": "2916", "displayName": "Incarnate Word Cardinals" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://uiwcardinals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Beaumont. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2320", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2916" ], "finding": "Lamar Cardinals: QB Aiden McCown/Evan Bullock, RB LaDamion McDowell/Parker Jenkins/Jameer Muhammad, WR Blake Thomas/Brit Simmons/Jaydn Girard, TE Davin Driskell/Justin Neal; Incarnate Word Cardinals: QB Emmett Brown/Jackson Fields, RB Jayden Hibbler/Lontrell Turner/Damashja Harris, WR Isaiah Champagne/Price Morgan/Zach Phipps, TE no primary receiver established" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2320", "teamName": "Lamar Cardinals", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401869131", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Northwestern State Demons at Lamar Cardinals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Provost Umphrey Stadium", "address": { "city": "Beaumont", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "77705", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2320", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2320", "displayName": "Lamar Cardinals" } }, { "id": "2466", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2466", "displayName": "Northwestern State Demons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://lamarcardinals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2916", "teamName": "Incarnate Word Cardinals", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868309", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Incarnate Word Cardinals at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Homer Bryce Stadium", "address": { "city": "Nacogdoches", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "75961", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2617", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2617", "displayName": "Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks" } }, { "id": "2916", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 26.0, "displayValue": "26" }, "team": { "id": "2916", "displayName": "Incarnate Word Cardinals" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://uiwcardinals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Beaumont. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Beaumont&state=TX&site=LCH&textField1=30.0878&textField2=-94.1445&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.713936+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 87. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Tonight Clear, with a low around 64. Calm wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 26.43051282051282, 29.559871794871796 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.333333333333336, 23.98076923076923 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.1, 30.8 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.6694871794871795, 2.1694871794871795 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Beaumont&state=TX&site=LCH&textField1=30.0878&textField2=-94.1445&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:00:00-05:00", "window": "Sunny, with a high near 87. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Clear, with a low around 64. Calm wind.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892471", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892471", "date": "2026-10-10T20:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1653", "fullName": "SAP Center at San Jose", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "San Jose", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "6", "away_name": "Edmonton Oilers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "18", "home_name": "San Jose Sharks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.5666666666666664, 3.325609756097561 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.5666666666666664, 3.325609756097561 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.5666666666666664, 3.325609756097561 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.4390243902439024, 3.2804878048780486 ], "current_rates": [ 5.5, 4.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.0609756097560976, 3.5609756097560976 ], "current_rates": [ 3.0, 3.5 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.7009864161824293, 3.25891998400651 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.7009864161824293, 3.25891998400651 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.7009864161824293, 3.25891998400651 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.43902, "pa": 3.2317, "official_team_id": 22 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.03658, "pa": 3.53658, "official_team_id": 28 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.43902, "pa": 3.2317, "official_team_id": 22 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.03658, "pa": 3.53658, "official_team_id": 28 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "San Jose Sharks: Adam Gaudette Injured Reserve, Kiefer Sherwood Day-To-Day, Macklin Celebrini Day-To-Day, Alex Barre-Boulet Injured Reserve, Quentin Musty Injured Reserve | Edmonton Oilers: Colton Dach Injured Reserve, Zach Hyman Out, Alec Regula Injured Reserve, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Injured Reserve, Matt Savoie Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892471", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.045798+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892471", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.045798+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Edmonton Oilers; Primary: Edmonton Oilers; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Edmonton Oilers; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Edmonton Oilers. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -0.442066 to -0.241057. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.1546319456101628 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892471", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.1546319456101628e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.5666666666666664, 3.325609756097561 ], "Primary": [ 3.7009864161824293, 3.25891998400651 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 04:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 2 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020072, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T20:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/SJS/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Edmonton Oilers", "previousEventId": "401892456", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Anaheim Ducks", "previousVenue": { "id": "1842", "fullName": "Honda Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Anaheim", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 3, "offDays": 2, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to SAP Center at San Jose; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "San Jose Sharks", "previousEventId": "401891825", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T00:00Z", "previousOpponent": "St. Louis Blues", "previousVenue": { "id": "1839", "fullName": "Enterprise Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Louis", "state": "MO", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to SAP Center at San Jose; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at SAP Center at San Jose; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/SJS/20262027", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892471" ], "tu": { "id": "401892471", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892471", "date": "2026-10-10T20:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1653", "fullName": "SAP Center at San Jose", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "San Jose", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "6", "away_name": "Edmonton Oilers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "18", "home_name": "San Jose Sharks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.43902, "pa": 3.2317, "official_team_id": 22 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.03658, "pa": 3.53658, "official_team_id": 28 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4878, 5.4878 ], "home": [ 1.13414, 5.13414 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks", "market": { "id": "401892471", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892471", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.156698+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.385162+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -192.0, "away_line_price": 160.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": -118.0, "under_price": -102.0, "home_ml": 130.0, "away_ml": -155.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.2410569105691054, "combined": 6.892276422764228, "spread_buffer": 1.2589430894308946, "total_difference": 0.3922764227642279 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.2410569105691054, "combined": 6.892276422764228, "spread_buffer": 1.2589430894308946, "total_difference": 0.3922764227642279 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.4420664321759191, "combined": 6.95990640018894, "spread_buffer": 1.0579335678240809, "total_difference": 0.4599064001889399 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.4420664321759191, "combined": 6.95990640018894, "spread_buffer": 1.0579335678240809, "total_difference": 0.4599064001889399 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.3536600000000001, "combined": 6.62194, "spread_buffer": 1.14634, "total_difference": 0.12194000000000038 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.3536600000000001, "combined": 6.62194, "spread_buffer": 1.14634, "total_difference": 0.12194000000000038 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.3536600000000001, "combined": 6.62194, "spread_buffer": 1.14634, "total_difference": 0.12194000000000038 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.3536600000000001, "combined": 6.62194, "spread_buffer": 1.14634, "total_difference": 0.12194000000000038 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401856713", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401856713", "date": "2026-10-10T20:15Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3887", "fullName": "Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Fayetteville", "state": "AR", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2633", "away_name": "Tennessee Volunteers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "8", "home_name": "Arkansas Razorbacks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "adjusted_score": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.409090909090907, 25.52272727272727 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2633", "side": "away", "player": "Faizon Brandon", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.409090909090907, 25.52272727272727 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.409090909090907, 25.52272727272727 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 40.75, 28.75 ], "current_rates": [ 36.8, 15.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 32.916666666666664, 33.833333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 19.8, 28.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 34.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 34.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2633", "side": "away", "player": "Faizon Brandon", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 30.0, 30.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.0, 30.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Faizon Brandon", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Ethan Davis", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Ethan Davis" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401856713", "matchup": "Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas Razorbacks", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "names": [ "Faizon Brandon" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "names": [ "Ethan Davis" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Brandon leads 101 pass attempts and 53 rushes. QB replacement gets one isolated -3, not separate rushing-QB deduction. Davis is OUT with 3 catches/43 yards/2 TD, while Brame has 6/43: primary receiving-TE identity and red-zone redistribution remain unresolved; isolated Davis -3 only if primary-option role confirmed. Gordon 20 carries is behind Bishop 88 and Morris 46; no headcount penalty. | Arkansas Razorbacks: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 39.2575, 28.021666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 37.29166666666667, 30.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.599999999999994, 17.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.3116666666666665, -2.8116666666666665 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 176, "def_points_proxy": 70, "off_plays": 462, "off_yards": 2515, "def_plays": 438, "def_yards": 2040, "early_plays": 327, "early_yards": 1970, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856666", "401856681", "401856692", "401856704", "401856710" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.8852459016393444, "def_ppd": 1.1475409836065573, "off_ypp": 5.4437229437229435, "def_ypp": 4.657534246575342, "early_down_ypp": 6.0244648318042815 }, "home": { "off_drives": 55, "def_drives": 55, "off_points_proxy": 98, "def_points_proxy": 142, "off_plays": 451, "off_yards": 2072, "def_plays": 378, "def_yards": 1977, "early_plays": 317, "early_yards": 1221, "explosive_plays": 29, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856635", "401856670", "401856686", "401856697", "401856711" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.7818181818181817, "def_ppd": 2.581818181818182, "off_ypp": 4.594235033259423, "def_ypp": 5.23015873015873, "early_down_ypp": 3.8517350157728707 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 88. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Tonight Clear, with a low around 59. South wind around 5 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fayetteville&state=AR&site=TSA&textField1=36.0718&textField2=-94.1557&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Faizon Brandon", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Ethan Davis", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Ethan Davis" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856713", "matchup": "Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas Razorbacks", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "names": [ "Faizon Brandon" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. 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"season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3887", "fullName": "Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Fayetteville", "state": "AR", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2633", "away_name": "Tennessee Volunteers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "8", "home_name": "Arkansas Razorbacks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 40.75, "pa": 28.75, "margin": 12.0, "event_ids": [ "401752676", "401752692", "401752705", "401752715", "401752720", "401752735", "401752738", "401752747", "401752757", "401752771", "401752775", "401752791" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.8, "pa": 15.2, "margin": 21.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401856666", "401856681", "401856692", "401856704", "401856710" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.916666666666664, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": -0.9166666666666714, "event_ids": [ "401752666", "401752682", "401752700", "401752708", "401752717", "401752735", "401752739", "401752746", "401752753", "401752768", "401752780", "401752783" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.8, "pa": 28.4, "margin": -8.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401856635", "401856670", "401856686", "401856697", "401856711" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 37.29166666666667, 30.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.599999999999994, 17.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.3116666666666665, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 21.2575, 57.2575 ], "home": [ 3.354999999999997, 39.355 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401856713", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856713", "teamId": "2633", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "side": "away", "opponent": "Arkansas Razorbacks", "conferenceReportKey": "Tennessee", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5158973", "name": "Faizon Brandon", "position": "QB", "workload": "61/101, 697 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5158973/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141571", "name": "George MacIntyre", "position": "QB", "workload": "14/20, 148 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5141571/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4921108", "name": "DeSean Bishop", "position": "RB", "workload": "88 CAR, 540 YDS, 7 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/4921108/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141598", "name": "Daune Morris", "position": "RB", "workload": "46 CAR, 299 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5141598/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141361", "name": "Justin Baker", "position": "RB", "workload": "4 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5141361/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5079580", "name": "Mike Matthews", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 318 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5079580/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5132629", "name": "Braylon Staley", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 140 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5132629/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5195481", "name": "Radarious Jackson", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 115 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5195481/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4870683", "name": "Ethan Davis", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 43 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/4870683/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141391", "name": "DaSaahn Brame", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 43 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5141391/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Ethan Davis", "id": "4870683", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 43 YDS, 2 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Joakim Dodson", "id": "5164355", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Javin Gordon", "id": "5294293", "position": "RB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "20 CAR, 79 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 18 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Faizon Brandon", "id": "5158973", "position": "QB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "61/101, 697 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "53 CAR, 130 YDS, 3 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Brandon leads 101 pass attempts and 53 rushes. QB replacement gets one isolated -3, not separate rushing-QB deduction. Davis is OUT with 3 catches/43 yards/2 TD, while Brame has 6/43: primary receiving-TE identity and red-zone redistribution remain unresolved; isolated Davis -3 only if primary-option role confirmed. Gordon 20 carries is behind Bishop 88 and Morris 46; no headcount penalty.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Faizon Brandon" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Faizon Brandon", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 31.409090909090907, 25.52272727272727 ], "Primary": [ 27.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "TightenUpON": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Brandon leads 101 pass attempts and 53 rushes. QB replacement gets one isolated -3, not separate rushing-QB deduction. Davis is OUT with 3 catches/43 yards/2 TD, while Brame has 6/43: primary receiving-TE identity and red-zone redistribution remain unresolved; isolated Davis -3 only if primary-option role confirmed. Gordon 20 carries is behind Bishop 88 and Morris 46; no headcount penalty.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.409090909090907, 25.52272727272727 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5158973", "name": "Faizon Brandon", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/422", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2633", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5158973/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2633", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5158973/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2633", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 101, "passingYards": 697, "passingTD": 7, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 15, "completionPct": 60.400001525878906, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.900000095367432, "rushAttempts": 53, "rushingYards": 130, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.5, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5158973/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2633" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5141571", "name": "George MacIntyre", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/426", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2633", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141571/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2633", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 9, "passingYards": 69, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 77.77799987792969, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.666999816894531, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141571/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2633", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 20, "passingYards": 148, "passingTD": 1, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 1, "completionPct": 70, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.400000095367432, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141571/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2633" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4917093", "name": "Ryan Staub", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/427", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "38", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 4, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 1, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 4, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.3329999446868896, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4917093/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "38", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 55, "passingYards": 427, "passingTD": 3, "interceptions": 4, "sacks": 6, "completionPct": 54.54499816894531, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.763999938964844, "rushAttempts": 19, "rushingYards": 30, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.5789999961853027, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4917093/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2633", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 3, "passingYards": 27, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 9, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4917093/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "38" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [ "Ethan Davis" ], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Faizon Brandon", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Faizon Brandon", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "George MacIntyre", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Faizon Brandon", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Ethan Davis", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Ethan Davis" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2633/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [ { "name": "Ethan Davis", "id": "4870683", "status": "out", "reason": "Three catches/43 yards/two TD versus Brame six/43. Red-zone contribution is visible, primary receiving-TE role is not established. Role-conditional sensitivity overlaps possible QB replacement.", "condition": "Only if covered/main-role workload is confirmed; OUT is verified but main-role eligibility is conditional", "incumbentHistoryRef": "player-histories.json#/players/423", "candidateReplacements": [ { "id": "5141391", "name": "DaSaahn Brame", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 43 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5141391/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/433" } ], "statisticalPointEffect": null, "isolatedHumanDeduction": -3, "jointWithConfirmedDeduction": -3, "overlap": "Shared passing-drive/target uncertainty retained; no automatic extra joint deduction.", "scores": { "Classic": { "isolated": [ 31.409090909090907, 25.52272727272727 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 31.409090909090907, 25.52272727272727 ] }, "Primary": { "isolated": [ 27.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 27.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ] }, "TightenUpON": { "isolated": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ] }, "TightenUpOFF": { "isolated": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ] } } } ] } }, { "eventId": "401856713", "teamId": "8", "team": "Arkansas Razorbacks", "side": "home", "opponent": "Tennessee Volunteers", "conferenceReportKey": "Arkansas", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5079516", "name": "KJ Jackson", "position": "QB", "workload": "95/157, 1038 YDS, 6 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/5079516/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141473", "name": "AJ Hill", "position": "QB", "workload": "16/28, 181 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/5141473/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5079589", "name": "Braylen Russell", "position": "RB", "workload": "40 CAR, 136 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/5079589/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4805256", "name": "Sutton Smith", "position": "RB", "workload": "39 CAR, 126 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/4805256/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5222564", "name": "Cam Settles", "position": "RB", "workload": "24 CAR, 81 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/5222564/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4717430", "name": "Chris Marshall", "position": "WR", "workload": "35 REC, 549 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/4717430/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5120970", "name": "Ismael Cisse", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 90 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/5120970/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4917349", "name": "Jamari Hawkins", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 82 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/4917349/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4870870", "name": "Ty Lockwood", "position": "TE", "workload": "10 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/4870870/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4899360", "name": "Jaden Platt", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/4899360/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Maddox Lassiter", "id": "5150266", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Arkansas Razorbacks: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/8/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.409090909090907, 25.52272727272727 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 39.2575, 28.021666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 37.29166666666667, 30.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.599999999999994, 17.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.3116666666666665, -2.8116666666666665 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas Razorbacks", "market": { "id": "401856713", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856713", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.298859+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.621250+00:00", "home_line": 13.5, "away_line": -13.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 410.0, "away_ml": -550.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 13.5, "average_total": 51.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -8.886363636363637, "combined": 59.93181818181817, "spread_buffer": 4.613636363636363, "total_difference": 8.431818181818173 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -8.886363636363637, "combined": 59.93181818181817, "spread_buffer": 4.613636363636363, "total_difference": 8.431818181818173 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.29858230114083995, "combined": 60.18626862328644, "spread_buffer": 13.20141769885916, "total_difference": 8.686268623286438 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.29858230114083995, "combined": 60.18626862328644, "spread_buffer": 13.20141769885916, "total_difference": 8.686268623286438 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -17.902500000000003, "combined": 60.6125, "spread_buffer": -4.402500000000003, "total_difference": 9.112499999999997 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -17.902500000000003, "combined": 60.6125, "spread_buffer": -4.402500000000003, "total_difference": 9.112499999999997 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401856713", "matchup": "Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas Razorbacks", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "line": -13.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856713", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.298859+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.621250+00:00", "home_line": 13.5, "away_line": -13.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 410.0, "away_ml": -550.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 4.402500000000003, "production_adjusted": 4.402500000000003, "minimum_all_scenarios": -5.264166666666668, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "directional_buffer": -4.613636363636363, "scenario_minimum": -7.613636363636363 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "directional_buffer": -13.20141769885916, "scenario_minimum": -16.20141769885916 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "directional_buffer": 4.402500000000003, "scenario_minimum": 1.4025000000000034 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "directional_buffer": 4.402500000000003, "scenario_minimum": 1.4025000000000034 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 36.2575, 28.02166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": -5.264166666666668, "stressed_buffer": -8.264166666666668 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "directional_buffer": 1.4025000000000034, "stressed_buffer": -1.5974999999999966 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "directional_buffer": 4.402500000000003, "stressed_buffer": 1.4025000000000034 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 36.2575, 28.02166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": -5.264166666666668, "stressed_buffer": -8.264166666666668 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 39.2575, 28.02166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": -2.264166666666668, "stressed_buffer": -5.264166666666668 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 39.2575, 28.021666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 37.29166666666667, 30.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.599999999999994, 17.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.3116666666666665, -2.8116666666666665 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "names": [ "Faizon Brandon" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned.", "combinedEvidence": [ { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "names": [ "Ethan Davis" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." } ] }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fayetteville&state=AR&site=TSA&textField1=36.0718&textField2=-94.1557&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:15:00-05:00", "window": "Sunny, with a high near 88. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Clear, with a low around 59. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ohio State Buckeyes", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Brandon Inniss" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401858483", "matchup": "Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State Buckeyes", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Maryland Terrapins", "names": [ "Harry Dalton III" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Ohio State Buckeyes", "names": [ "Brandon Inniss" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Dalton has 30 carries/113 yards/3 TD, a material committee workload. Howard has 52 carries, Williams 13 carries/194 yards and is PROBABLE. Six offensive report names do not imply six deductions. | Inniss third receiver 10/147 is DOUBTFUL. McCuin second receiver 17/245 is PROBABLE. Preserve available vs unavailable Inniss branch; no automatic conversion from doubtful to out.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 15.583076923076923, 40.87269230769231 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 15.826923076923077, 30.71153846153846 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.5, 36.2 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -5.9169230769230765, 7.4169230769230765 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 67, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 154, "def_points_proxy": 132, "off_plays": 463, "off_yards": 2810, "def_plays": 420, "def_yards": 2262, "early_plays": 324, "early_yards": 1913, "explosive_plays": 38, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858232", "401858427", "401858444", "401858462", "401858475" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.298507462686567, "def_ppd": 2.1639344262295084, "off_ypp": 6.069114470842333, "def_ypp": 5.385714285714286, "early_down_ypp": 5.904320987654321 }, "home": { "off_drives": 56, "def_drives": 57, "off_points_proxy": 204, "def_points_proxy": 63, "off_plays": 414, "off_yards": 2937, "def_plays": 423, "def_yards": 1858, "early_plays": 311, "early_yards": 2216, "explosive_plays": 37, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856682", "401858432", "401858454", "401858465", "401858473" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.642857142857143, "def_ppd": 1.105263157894737, "off_ypp": 7.094202898550725, "def_ypp": 4.392434988179669, "early_down_ypp": 7.12540192926045 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 58. East wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Columbus&state=OH&site=ILN&textField1=39.9889&textField2=-82.9874&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ohio State Buckeyes", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Brandon Inniss" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858483", "matchup": "Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State Buckeyes", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Maryland Terrapins", "names": [ "Harry Dalton III" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Ohio State Buckeyes", "names": [ "Brandon Inniss" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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"name": "Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 239 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/120/athletes/5194795/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4838556", "name": "Kaleb Webb", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 235 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/120/athletes/4838556/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5092410", "name": "Dorian Fleming", "position": "TE", "workload": "18 REC, 171 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/120/athletes/5092410/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685393", "name": "Preston Howard", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 40 YDS", "source": 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"status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "30 CAR, 113 YDS, 3 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, -14 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Terrez Worthy", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Solomon Foye", "id": "5306795", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "DeJuan Williams", "id": "5295550", "position": "RB", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "13 CAR, 194 YDS, 3 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "4 REC, 35 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Dalton has 30 carries/113 yards/3 TD, a material committee workload. Howard has 52 carries, Williams 13 carries/194 yards and is PROBABLE. Six offensive report names do not imply six deductions.", "confirmed": [ "Harry Dalton III" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Harry Dalton III", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 14.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "Primary": [ 7.908145018500839, 39.81699500640866 ], "TightenUpON": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Dalton has 30 carries/113 yards/3 TD, a material committee workload. Howard has 52 carries, Williams 13 carries/194 yards and is PROBABLE. 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Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5270858", "name": "Liam Willson", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/768", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "120", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5270858/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "120", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5270858/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "120", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 13, "rushingYards": 52, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5270858/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "120" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Harry Dalton III", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Iverson Howard", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "DeJuan Williams", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Liam Willson", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Liam Willson", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/120/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/120/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858483", "teamId": "194", "team": "Ohio State Buckeyes", "side": "home", "opponent": "Maryland Terrapins", "conferenceReportKey": "Ohio State", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5079712", "name": "Julian Sayin", "position": "QB", "workload": "103/142, 1530 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5079712/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5214646", "name": "Luke Fahey", "position": "QB", "workload": "9/11, 203 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5214646/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5141517", "name": "Bo Jackson", "position": "RB", "workload": "66 CAR, 353 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5141517/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5151892", "name": "Ja'Kobi Jackson", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 278 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5151892/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141701", "name": "Isaiah West", "position": "RB", "workload": "22 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5141701/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5079720", "name": "Jeremiah Smith", "position": "WR", "workload": "44 REC, 823 YDS, 9 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5079720/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5076952", "name": "Devin McCuin", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 245 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5076952/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870835", "name": "Brandon Inniss", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 147 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/4870835/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5141656", "name": "Nate Roberts", "position": "TE", "workload": "9 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5141656/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5081611", "name": "Mason Williams", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 35 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5081611/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Amari Valerio-Hudson", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Brandon Inniss", "id": "4870835", "position": "WR", "status": "doubtful", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "10 REC, 147 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Anthony Turbo Rogers", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "doubtful", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Devin McCuin", "id": "5076952", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "17 REC, 245 YDS, 2 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Inniss third receiver 10/147 is DOUBTFUL. McCuin second receiver 17/245 is PROBABLE. Preserve available vs unavailable Inniss branch; no automatic conversion from doubtful to out.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Brandon Inniss" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Brandon Inniss", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 17.655594405594403, 30.956293706293707 ], "Primary": [ 10.90814501850084, 36.81699500640866 ], "TightenUpON": [ 12.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 12.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Inniss third receiver 10/147 is DOUBTFUL. McCuin second receiver 17/245 is PROBABLE. Preserve available vs unavailable Inniss branch; no automatic conversion from doubtful to out.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.655594405594403, 30.956293706293707 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 10.90814501850084, 36.81699500640866 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 12.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 12.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "4870835", "name": "Brandon Inniss", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/381", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 12, "receivingYards": 151, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4870835/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 13, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 6, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 16, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.333000183105469, "receptions": 32, "receivingYards": 237, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4870835/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 147, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4870835/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "194" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079720", "name": "Jeremiah Smith", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/389", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 47, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 11.75, "receptions": 57, "receivingYards": 934, "receivingTD": 10, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079720/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 20, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 10, "receptions": 80, "receivingYards": 1086, "receivingTD": 11, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079720/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 5, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5, "receptions": 44, "receivingYards": 823, "receivingTD": 9, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079720/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "194" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5076952", "name": "Devin McCuin", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/382", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2636", "status": "available", "games": 7, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 28, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 9.333000183105469, "receptions": 40, "receivingYards": 361, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5076952/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2636", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 11, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.5, "receptions": 59, "receivingYards": 653, "receivingTD": 7, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5076952/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 17, "receivingYards": 245, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5076952/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2636" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Brandon Inniss" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/194/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 14.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.655594405594403, 30.956293706293707 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 7.908145018500839, 39.81699500640866 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 7.908145018500839, 36.81699500640866 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 15.583076923076923, 40.87269230769231 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Exact paired full-game displayed prices captured from response HTML, not search cache.", "away_name": "Maryland Terrapins", "home_name": "Ohio State Buckeyes", "away_ml": 3500, "home_ml": -20000, "away_line": 33.5, "home_line": -33.5, "away_line_price": -110, "home_line_price": -110, "total": 56.5, "under_line": 56.5, "over_price": -114, "under_price": -106, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "body_file": "supplement-3.html", "body_sha256": "09712af5ca593f2b7c7c97d3bbe6b78e81abeb8ddcd696962a384296ca5d793a" }, { "event_id": "401858483", "source": "https://www.wv.betmgm.com/en/sports/events/maryland-at-ohio-state-19996483", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:30:08.521557+00:00", "provider": "BetMGM", "provider_id": "betmgm", "method": "Fresh CUA rendered DOM read; public Full game tab selected. Today4:15PM and siteclock6:29:55AM matchedcurrentEasternOct10. No account or bet interaction.", "away_name": "Maryland", "home_name": "Ohio State", "away_ml": 3300, "home_ml": -10000, "away_line": 33.5, "away_line_price": -110, "home_line": -33.5, "home_line_price": -110, "total": 56.5, "under_line": 56.5, "over_price": -110, "under_price": -110, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true, "full_game": true, "pregame": true, "price_eligibility_note": "OhioStateML-10000 retained for context only; prohibited as recommendation by strictlybetterthan-400rule.", "url": "https://www.wv.betmgm.com/en/sports/events/maryland-at-ohio-state-19996483", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:30:08.521557+00:00" } ], "average_home_line": -33.5, "average_total": 56.5, "spread_quote_count": 3, "total_quote_count": 3, "average_status": "Distinct-provider arithmetic averages; may not be an offered line", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 16.300699300699304, "combined": 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"RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Maryland Terrapins", "line": 33.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858483", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.310120+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.584761+00:00", "home_line": -33.5, "away_line": 33.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 56.5, "under_line": 56.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": null, "away_ml": null, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": false }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 5.373846153846152, "production_adjusted": 2.373846153846152, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.373846153846152, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 14.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "directional_buffer": 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5.373846153846152, "stressed_buffer": 2.373846153846152 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 2.373846153846152, "stressed_buffer": -0.6261538461538478 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 12.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 8.373846153846152, "stressed_buffer": 5.373846153846152 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 5.373846153846152, "stressed_buffer": 2.373846153846152 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 12.583076923076923, 37.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 8.210384615384612, "stressed_buffer": 5.210384615384612 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 12.583076923076923, 40.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 5.210384615384612, "stressed_buffer": 2.210384615384612 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 15.583076923076923, 37.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 11.210384615384612, "stressed_buffer": 8.210384615384612 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 15.583076923076923, 40.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 8.210384615384612, "stressed_buffer": 5.210384615384612 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 15.583076923076923, 40.87269230769231 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Ohio State Buckeyes", "names": [ "Brandon Inniss" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. 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{ "base": { "margin": 28.126153846153848, "combined": 53.619230769230775, "spread_buffer": -5.373846153846152, "total_difference": -2.880769230769225 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 31.126153846153848, "combined": 50.619230769230775, "spread_buffer": -2.373846153846152, "total_difference": -5.880769230769225 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401858483", "matchup": "Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State Buckeyes", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Maryland Terrapins", "line": 33.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858483", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.310120+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.584761+00:00", "home_line": -33.5, "away_line": 33.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 56.5, "under_line": 56.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": null, "away_ml": null, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": false }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 5.373846153846152, "production_adjusted": 2.373846153846152, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.373846153846152, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 14.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "directional_buffer": 14.199300699300696, "scenario_minimum": 14.199300699300696 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 7.908145018500839, 39.81699500640866 ], "directional_buffer": 1.5911500120921787, "scenario_minimum": 1.5911500120921787 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 2.373846153846152, "scenario_minimum": 2.373846153846152 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 2.373846153846152, "scenario_minimum": 2.373846153846152 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 2.373846153846152, "stressed_buffer": -0.6261538461538478 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 5.373846153846152, "stressed_buffer": 2.373846153846152 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 2.373846153846152, "stressed_buffer": -0.6261538461538478 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 12.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 8.373846153846152, "stressed_buffer": 5.373846153846152 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 5.373846153846152, "stressed_buffer": 2.373846153846152 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 12.583076923076923, 37.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 8.210384615384612, "stressed_buffer": 5.210384615384612 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 12.583076923076923, 40.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 5.210384615384612, "stressed_buffer": 2.210384615384612 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 15.583076923076923, 37.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 11.210384615384612, "stressed_buffer": 8.210384615384612 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 15.583076923076923, 40.87269230769231 ], "directional_buffer": 8.210384615384612, "stressed_buffer": 5.210384615384612 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 15.583076923076923, 40.87269230769231 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Columbus&state=OH&site=ILN&textField1=39.9889&textField2=-82.9874&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Columbus&state=OH&site=ILN&textField1=39.9889&textField2=-82.9874&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T16:15:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 58. East wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 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No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Columbus&state=OH&site=ILN&textField1=39.9889&textField2=-82.9874&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Columbus&state=OH&site=ILN&textField1=39.9889&textField2=-82.9874&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T16:15:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 58. East wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 14, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 32.92857142857143, 19.857142857142858 ], "current_rates": [ 42.5, 27.833333333333332 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 17.25, 26.75 ], "current_rates": [ 27.0, 31.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 23.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 23.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.690927438838585, 25.971666538284445 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.690927438838585, 25.971666538284445 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.690927438838585, 25.971666538284445 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 32.92857142857143, "pa": 19.857142857142858, "margin": 13.071428571428573, "event_ids": [ "401756855", "401767127", "401767098", "401767502", "401767503", "401767504", "401767505", "401767450", "401767506", "401767507", "401767501", "401767508", "401836115", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 42.5, "pa": 27.833333333333332, "margin": 14.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867874", "401867875", "401867876", "401858452", "401867858", "401867869" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.25, "pa": 26.75, "margin": -9.5, "event_ids": [ "401767536", "401760367", "401767060", "401767308", "401767503", "401767537", "401767538", "401767539", "401767442", "401767500", "401767514", "401767540" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27.0, "pa": 31.0, "margin": -4.0, "event_ids": [ "401868085", "401868255", "401858471", "401867847" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.839285714285715, 18.55357142857143 ], "current_matchup": [ 36.75, 27.416666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.123809523809524, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 37.5, 20.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 37.5, 20.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 32.92857142857143, "pa": 19.857142857142858, "margin": 13.071428571428573, "event_ids": [ "401756855", "401767127", "401767098", "401767502", "401767503", "401767504", "401767505", "401767450", "401767506", "401767507", "401767501", "401767508", "401836115", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 42.5, "pa": 27.833333333333332, "margin": 14.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867874", "401867875", "401867876", "401858452", "401867858", "401867869" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.25, "pa": 26.75, "margin": -9.5, "event_ids": [ "401767536", "401760367", "401767060", "401767308", "401767503", "401767537", "401767538", "401767539", "401767442", "401767500", "401767514", "401767540" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27.0, "pa": 31.0, "margin": -4.0, "event_ids": [ "401868085", "401868255", "401858471", "401867847" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.839285714285715, 18.55357142857143 ], "current_matchup": [ 36.75, 27.416666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.123809523809524, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 37.5, 20.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 37.5, 20.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401867877", "matchup": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Northern Iowa Panthers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Northern Iowa Panthers: QB Jaxon Dailey/Cale McThenia, RB Christian Collins/Caleb Kamara/Michael Bormann, WR Ayden Price/Jaiden Ellis-Lahey/Ben Gordon, TE Zach Mehmert/Kaleb Diers; North Dakota Fighting Hawks: QB Jerry Kaminski/Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson, RB Griffin Broderick/Matt Lawson/Charles Langama, WR Deng Deng/Cameron Weir/Korey Tai, TE Nathan Hromadka/Mason South", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 37.41845238095239, 24.79285714285714 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.839285714285715, 18.55357142857143 ], "currentMatchup": [ 36.75, 27.416666666666664 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.123809523809524, -2.6238095238095243 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 77, "def_drives": 76, "off_points_proxy": 233, "def_points_proxy": 168, "off_plays": 532, "off_yards": 3603, "def_plays": 495, "def_yards": 2858, "early_plays": 404, "early_yards": 2799, "explosive_plays": 53, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858452", "401867858", "401867869", "401867874", "401867875", "401867876" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 3.0259740259740258, "def_ppd": 2.210526315789474, "off_ypp": 6.772556390977444, "def_ypp": 5.773737373737374, "early_down_ypp": 6.928217821782178 }, "home": { "off_drives": 43, "def_drives": 44, "off_points_proxy": 101, "def_points_proxy": 126, "off_plays": 302, "off_yards": 1668, "def_plays": 345, "def_yards": 2123, "early_plays": 226, "early_yards": 1249, "explosive_plays": 24, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858471", "401867847", "401868085", "401868255" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.3488372093023258, "def_ppd": 2.8636363636363638, "off_ypp": 5.52317880794702, "def_ypp": 6.153623188405797, "early_down_ypp": 5.5265486725663715 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2460", "teamName": "Northern Iowa Panthers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867847", "date": "2026-09-26T21:00Z", "name": "Illinois State Redbirds at Northern Iowa Panthers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "UNI-Dome", "address": { "city": "Cedar Falls", "state": "IA", "zipCode": "50614", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2460", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2460", "displayName": "Northern Iowa Panthers" } }, { "id": "2287", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2287", "displayName": "Illinois State Redbirds" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://unipanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "155", "teamName": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867869", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Murray State Racers at North Dakota Fighting Hawks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Alerus Center", "address": { "city": "Grand Forks", "state": "ND", "zipCode": "58201", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "155", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 55.0, "displayValue": "55" }, "team": { "id": "155", "displayName": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks" } }, { "id": "93", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "93", "displayName": "Murray State Racers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://fightinghawks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Cedar Falls. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Cedar%20Falls%2C%20IA", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.718998+00:00", "status": "indoor", "currentForecast": "Enclosed venue; field weather effect not applied. Travel conditions unestimated.", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867877", "matchup": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Northern Iowa Panthers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://fightinghawks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Cedar%20Falls%2C%20IA", "https://unipanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401867877", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401867877", "date": "2026-10-10T21:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3967", "fullName": "UNI-Dome", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Cedar Falls", "state": "IA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "155", "away_name": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2460", "home_name": "Northern Iowa Panthers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 32.92857142857143, "pa": 19.857142857142858, "margin": 13.071428571428573, "event_ids": [ "401756855", "401767127", "401767098", "401767502", "401767503", "401767504", "401767505", "401767450", "401767506", "401767507", "401767501", "401767508", "401836115", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 42.5, "pa": 27.833333333333332, "margin": 14.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867874", "401867875", "401867876", "401858452", "401867858", "401867869" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.25, "pa": 26.75, "margin": -9.5, "event_ids": [ "401767536", "401760367", "401767060", "401767308", "401767503", "401767537", "401767538", "401767539", "401767442", "401767500", "401767514", "401767540" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27.0, "pa": 31.0, "margin": -4.0, "event_ids": [ "401868085", "401868255", "401858471", "401867847" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.839285714285715, 18.55357142857143 ], "current_matchup": [ 36.75, 27.416666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.123809523809524, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 17.418452380952388, 57.41845238095239 ], "home": [ 0.3613095238095241, 40.361309523809524 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401867877", "matchup": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Northern Iowa Panthers", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T21:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3967", "guid": "b12cc348-275c-3918-af9c-2b9e84aa8215", "fullName": "UNI-Dome", "address": { "city": "Cedar Falls", "state": "IA", "zipCode": "50614", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2460", "teamName": "Northern Iowa Panthers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867847", "date": "2026-09-26T21:00Z", "name": "Illinois State Redbirds at Northern Iowa Panthers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "UNI-Dome", "address": { "city": "Cedar Falls", "state": "IA", "zipCode": "50614", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2460", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2460", "displayName": "Northern Iowa Panthers" } }, { "id": "2287", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2287", "displayName": "Illinois State Redbirds" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://unipanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "155", "teamName": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867869", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Murray State Racers at North Dakota Fighting Hawks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Alerus Center", "address": { "city": "Grand Forks", "state": "ND", "zipCode": "58201", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "155", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 55.0, "displayValue": "55" }, "team": { "id": "155", "displayName": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks" } }, { "id": "93", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "93", "displayName": "Murray State Racers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://fightinghawks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Cedar Falls. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2460", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#155" ], "finding": "Northern Iowa Panthers: QB Jaxon Dailey/Cale McThenia, RB Christian Collins/Caleb Kamara/Michael Bormann, WR Ayden Price/Jaiden Ellis-Lahey/Ben Gordon, TE Zach Mehmert/Kaleb Diers; North Dakota Fighting Hawks: QB Jerry Kaminski/Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson, RB Griffin Broderick/Matt Lawson/Charles Langama, WR Deng Deng/Cameron Weir/Korey Tai, TE Nathan Hromadka/Mason South" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2460", "teamName": "Northern Iowa Panthers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867847", "date": "2026-09-26T21:00Z", "name": "Illinois State Redbirds at Northern Iowa Panthers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "UNI-Dome", "address": { "city": "Cedar Falls", "state": "IA", "zipCode": "50614", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2460", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2460", "displayName": "Northern Iowa Panthers" } }, { "id": "2287", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2287", "displayName": "Illinois State Redbirds" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://unipanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "155", "teamName": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867869", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Murray State Racers at North Dakota Fighting Hawks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Alerus Center", "address": { "city": "Grand Forks", "state": "ND", "zipCode": "58201", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "155", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 55.0, "displayValue": "55" }, "team": { "id": "155", "displayName": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks" } }, { "id": "93", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "93", "displayName": "Murray State Racers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://fightinghawks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Cedar Falls. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Cedar%20Falls%2C%20IA", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.718998+00:00", "status": "indoor", "currentForecast": "Enclosed venue; field weather effect not applied. Travel conditions unestimated.", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 37.41845238095239, 24.79285714285714 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.839285714285715, 18.55357142857143 ], "currentMatchup": [ 36.75, 27.416666666666664 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.123809523809524, -2.6238095238095243 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Northern Iowa Panthers", "market": { "id": "401867877", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867877", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.390163+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.616373+00:00", "home_line": 14.5, "away_line": -14.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -113.0, "total": 58.5, "under_line": 58.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 362.0, "away_ml": -511.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 14.5, "average_total": 58.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -9.084523809523809, "combined": 55.5797619047619, "spread_buffer": 5.415476190476191, "total_difference": -2.9202380952380977 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -9.084523809523809, "combined": 55.5797619047619, "spread_buffer": 5.415476190476191, "total_difference": -2.9202380952380977 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -2.71926090055414, "combined": 54.66259397712303, "spread_buffer": 11.78073909944586, "total_difference": -3.8374060228769693 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -2.71926090055414, "combined": 54.66259397712303, "spread_buffer": 11.78073909944586, "total_difference": -3.8374060228769693 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 37.97532051282051, 24.53589743589744 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.97532051282051, 24.53589743589744 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.97532051282051, 24.53589743589744 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.53846153846154, "pa": 23.923076923076923, "margin": 17.615384615384617, "event_ids": [ "401767097", "401767098", "401767099", "401767091", "401767083", "401767079", "401767100", "401767101", "401767102", "401767069", "401767103", "401767104", "401836197" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.166666666666664, "pa": 22.166666666666668, "margin": 14.999999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401868110", "401868111", "401868112", "401860886", "401868113", "401868114" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.666666666666668, "pa": 31.25, "margin": 0.41666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401756850", "401767112", "401767113", "401767114", "401767115", "401767108", "401767116", "401767085", "401767094", "401767117", "401767078", "401767118" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 27.666666666666668, "pa": 28.666666666666668, "margin": -1.0, "event_ids": [ "401868084", "401856773", "401868123", "401868124", "401868120", "401868104" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 36.394230769230774, 27.794871794871796 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.916666666666664, 24.916666666666668 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.319871794871794, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 38.0, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 38.0, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 37.97532051282051, 24.53589743589744 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.97532051282051, 24.53589743589744 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.97532051282051, 24.53589743589744 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.53846153846154, "pa": 23.923076923076923, "margin": 17.615384615384617, "event_ids": [ "401767097", "401767098", "401767099", "401767091", "401767083", "401767079", "401767100", "401767101", "401767102", "401767069", "401767103", "401767104", "401836197" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.166666666666664, "pa": 22.166666666666668, "margin": 14.999999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401868110", "401868111", "401868112", "401860886", "401868113", "401868114" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.666666666666668, "pa": 31.25, "margin": 0.41666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401756850", "401767112", "401767113", "401767114", "401767115", "401767108", "401767116", "401767085", "401767094", "401767117", "401767078", "401767118" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 27.666666666666668, "pa": 28.666666666666668, "margin": -1.0, "event_ids": [ "401868084", "401856773", "401868123", "401868124", "401868120", "401868104" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 36.394230769230774, 27.794871794871796 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.916666666666664, 24.916666666666668 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.319871794871794, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 38.0, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 38.0, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868115", "matchup": "Montana Grizzlies at Northern Arizona Lumberjacks", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: QB Ty Pennington/Donivan Dixon, RB Quran Gossett/Kenveon Stone/Lindsey Graves, WR Joey Stout/Myseth Currie/Darius Haskin, TE Jeter Purdy/Nassim Isaac; Montana Grizzlies: QB Keali'i Ah Yat/Luke Flowers, RB Eli Gillman/Chase Cook/Dylan Paine, WR Brooks Davis/Landon Ransom-Goelz/Ian Finch, TE Reese Brooks/Mariano Birdno", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 37.97532051282051, 25.975 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 36.394230769230774, 27.794871794871796 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.916666666666664, 24.916666666666668 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.319871794871794, -1.8198717948717942 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 76, "def_drives": 73, "off_points_proxy": 222, "def_points_proxy": 135, "off_plays": 497, "off_yards": 3364, "def_plays": 548, "def_yards": 3141, "early_plays": 368, "early_yards": 2435, "explosive_plays": 42, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401860886", "401868110", "401868111", "401868112", "401868113", "401868114" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.9210526315789473, "def_ppd": 1.8493150684931507, "off_ypp": 6.768611670020121, "def_ypp": 5.731751824817518, "early_down_ypp": 6.616847826086956 }, "home": { "off_drives": 73, "def_drives": 76, "off_points_proxy": 145, "def_points_proxy": 173, "off_plays": 489, "off_yards": 2851, "def_plays": 536, "def_yards": 3424, "early_plays": 353, "early_yards": 2199, "explosive_plays": 41, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856773", "401868084", "401868104", "401868120", "401868123", "401868124" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.9863013698630136, "def_ppd": 2.276315789473684, "off_ypp": 5.830265848670757, "def_ypp": 6.388059701492537, "early_down_ypp": 6.229461756373937 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2464", "teamName": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868104", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Idaho State Bengals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "ICCU Dome", "address": { "city": "Pocatello", "state": "ID", "zipCode": "83201", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "304", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "304", "displayName": "Idaho State Bengals" } }, { "id": "2464", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "2464", "displayName": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nauathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "149", "teamName": "Montana Grizzlies", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868114", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Northern Colorado Bears at Montana Grizzlies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Washington-Grizzly Stadium", "address": { "city": "Missoula", "state": "MT", "zipCode": "59812", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "149", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 36.0, "displayValue": "36" }, "team": { "id": "149", "displayName": "Montana Grizzlies" } }, { "id": "2458", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2458", "displayName": "Northern Colorado Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gogriz.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Flagstaff. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Flagstaff%2C%20AZ", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.718998+00:00", "status": "indoor", "currentForecast": "Enclosed venue; field weather effect not applied. Travel conditions unestimated.", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868115", "matchup": "Montana Grizzlies at Northern Arizona Lumberjacks", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Flagstaff%2C%20AZ", "https://gogriz.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://nauathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868115", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868115", "date": "2026-10-10T21:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "2023", "fullName": "J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Flagstaff", "state": "AZ", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "149", "away_name": "Montana Grizzlies", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2464", "home_name": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 37.97532051282051, 24.53589743589744 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.53846153846154, "pa": 23.923076923076923, "margin": 17.615384615384617, "event_ids": [ "401767097", "401767098", "401767099", "401767091", "401767083", "401767079", "401767100", "401767101", "401767102", "401767069", "401767103", "401767104", "401836197" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.166666666666664, "pa": 22.166666666666668, "margin": 14.999999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401868110", "401868111", "401868112", "401860886", "401868113", "401868114" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.666666666666668, "pa": 31.25, "margin": 0.41666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401756850", "401767112", "401767113", "401767114", "401767115", "401767108", "401767116", "401767085", "401767094", "401767117", "401767078", "401767118" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 27.666666666666668, "pa": 28.666666666666668, "margin": -1.0, "event_ids": [ "401868084", "401856773", "401868123", "401868124", "401868120", "401868104" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 36.394230769230774, 27.794871794871796 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.916666666666664, 24.916666666666668 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.319871794871794, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 17.97532051282051, 57.97532051282051 ], "home": [ 4.535897435897439, 44.53589743589744 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868115", "matchup": "Montana Grizzlies at Northern Arizona Lumberjacks", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T21:00Z", "venue": { "id": "2023", "guid": "9b509152-95a4-3627-b20d-03924982a775", "fullName": "J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome", "address": { "city": "Flagstaff", "state": "AZ", "zipCode": "86001", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2464", "teamName": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868104", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Idaho State Bengals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "ICCU Dome", "address": { "city": "Pocatello", "state": "ID", "zipCode": "83201", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "304", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "304", "displayName": "Idaho State Bengals" } }, { "id": "2464", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "2464", "displayName": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nauathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "149", "teamName": "Montana Grizzlies", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868114", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Northern Colorado Bears at Montana Grizzlies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Washington-Grizzly Stadium", "address": { "city": "Missoula", "state": "MT", "zipCode": "59812", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "149", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 36.0, "displayValue": "36" }, "team": { "id": "149", "displayName": "Montana Grizzlies" } }, { "id": "2458", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2458", "displayName": "Northern Colorado Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gogriz.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Flagstaff. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2464", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#149" ], "finding": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: QB Ty Pennington/Donivan Dixon, RB Quran Gossett/Kenveon Stone/Lindsey Graves, WR Joey Stout/Myseth Currie/Darius Haskin, TE Jeter Purdy/Nassim Isaac; Montana Grizzlies: QB Keali'i Ah Yat/Luke Flowers, RB Eli Gillman/Chase Cook/Dylan Paine, WR Brooks Davis/Landon Ransom-Goelz/Ian Finch, TE Reese Brooks/Mariano Birdno" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2464", "teamName": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868104", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Idaho State Bengals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "ICCU Dome", "address": { "city": "Pocatello", "state": "ID", "zipCode": "83201", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "304", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "304", "displayName": "Idaho State Bengals" } }, { "id": "2464", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "2464", "displayName": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nauathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "149", "teamName": "Montana Grizzlies", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868114", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Northern Colorado Bears at Montana Grizzlies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Washington-Grizzly Stadium", "address": { "city": "Missoula", "state": "MT", "zipCode": "59812", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "149", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 36.0, "displayValue": "36" }, "team": { "id": "149", "displayName": "Montana Grizzlies" } }, { "id": "2458", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2458", "displayName": "Northern Colorado Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gogriz.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Flagstaff. 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No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868115", "matchup": "Montana Grizzlies at Northern Arizona Lumberjacks", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 64.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868115", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.390163+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.606307+00:00", "home_line": 9.5, "away_line": -9.5, "home_line_price": -113.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 64.5, "under_line": 64.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": 233.0, "away_ml": -305.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 1.988782051282051, "production_adjusted": 1.988782051282051, "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.549679487179489, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.905448717948715, 27.105769230769234 ], "directional_buffer": 3.488782051282051, "scenario_minimum": 3.488782051282051 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.525674092251776, 31.53724859961221 ], "directional_buffer": 3.4370773081360113, "scenario_minimum": 3.4370773081360113 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 37.97532051282051, 24.53589743589744 ], "directional_buffer": 1.988782051282051, "scenario_minimum": 1.988782051282051 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 37.97532051282051, 24.53589743589744 ], "directional_buffer": 1.988782051282051, "scenario_minimum": 1.988782051282051 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.97532051282051, 25.975 ], "directional_buffer": 0.549679487179489, "stressed_buffer": -2.450320512820511 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 37.97532051282051, 24.53589743589744 ], "directional_buffer": 1.988782051282051, "stressed_buffer": -1.011217948717949 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.97532051282051, 25.975 ], "directional_buffer": 0.549679487179489, "stressed_buffer": -2.450320512820511 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 37.97532051282051, 25.975 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 36.394230769230774, 27.794871794871796 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.916666666666664, 24.916666666666668 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.319871794871794, -1.8198717948717942 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "Enclosed playing venue", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Flagstaff%2C%20AZ", "window": "Enclosed venue; field weather effect not applied. Travel conditions unestimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401868955", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868955", "date": "2026-10-10T21:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3902", "fullName": "Eddie G. Robinson Memorial Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Grambling", "state": "LA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2296", "away_name": "Jackson State Tigers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2755", "home_name": "Grambling Tigers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 32.36363636363636, 24.75 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.36363636363636, 24.75 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.36363636363636, 24.75 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 32.833333333333336, 18.75 ], "current_rates": [ 39.8, 18.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.083333333333332, 26.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 36.2, 35.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 25.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 25.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.966120382254548, 28.352021068130284 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.966120382254548, 28.352021068130284 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.966120382254548, 28.352021068130284 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 28.0, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.833333333333336, "pa": 18.75, "margin": 14.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767179", "401761602", "401767421", "401767422", "401767312", "401767363", "401767419", "401767423", "401767424", "401767393", "401767378", "401777350" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 39.8, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 21.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401868194", "401868958", "401868959", "401868960", "401868295" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.083333333333332, "pa": 26.083333333333332, "margin": -2.0, "event_ids": [ "401788977", "401752815", "401767395", "401767416", "401767417", "401767418", "401767383", "401767419", "401767315", "401767392", "401767377", "401767420" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.2, "pa": 35.2, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401868952", "401868953", "401856789", "401868954", "401868359" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.458333333333336, 21.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 37.5, 27.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.6883333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 37.0, 22.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 37.0, 22.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.833333333333336, "pa": 18.75, "margin": 14.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767179", "401761602", "401767421", "401767422", "401767312", "401767363", "401767419", "401767423", "401767424", "401767393", "401767378", "401777350" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 39.8, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 21.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401868194", "401868958", "401868959", "401868960", "401868295" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.083333333333332, "pa": 26.083333333333332, "margin": -2.0, "event_ids": [ "401788977", "401752815", "401767395", "401767416", "401767417", "401767418", "401767383", "401767419", "401767315", "401767392", "401767377", "401767420" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.2, "pa": 35.2, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401868952", "401868953", "401856789", "401868954", "401868359" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.458333333333336, 21.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 37.5, 27.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.6883333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 37.0, 22.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 37.0, 22.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868955", "matchup": "Jackson State Tigers at Grambling Tigers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Grambling Tigers: QB Jacobe Robinson/Ashton Frye, RB D'Shuan Ford/Jamarion Parker/Byron Eaton Jr., WR Jordan Bride/Tyson George/Nae'Saan Dickerson, TE Patrick Williams II/Davon Mitchell; Jackson State Tigers: QB Jared Lockhart, RB Nate Blount IV/Emari Matthews/Li'Darius Pryor, WR Nate Rembert/Jabari Jones/Kobe Paul, TE Jency Riley Jr.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 37.167500000000004, 24.91166666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.458333333333336, 21.416666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 37.5, 27.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.6883333333333335, -2.1883333333333335 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 57, "off_points_proxy": 185, "def_points_proxy": 83, "off_plays": 433, "off_yards": 3344, "def_plays": 426, "def_yards": 2278, "early_plays": 319, "early_yards": 2383, "explosive_plays": 48, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868194", "401868295", "401868958", "401868959", "401868960" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.0833333333333335, "def_ppd": 1.456140350877193, "off_ypp": 7.722863741339492, "def_ypp": 5.347417840375587, "early_down_ypp": 7.470219435736677 }, "home": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 65, "off_points_proxy": 167, "def_points_proxy": 181, "off_plays": 410, "off_yards": 2716, "def_plays": 407, "def_yards": 2885, "early_plays": 307, "early_yards": 1892, "explosive_plays": 38, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856789", "401868359", "401868952", "401868953", "401868954" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.783333333333333, "def_ppd": 2.7846153846153845, "off_ypp": 6.624390243902439, "def_ypp": 7.0884520884520885, "early_down_ypp": 6.162866449511401 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2755", "teamName": "Grambling Tigers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868359", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Alcorn State Braves at Grambling Tigers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Eddie G. Robinson Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Grambling", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "71245", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2755", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 63.0, "displayValue": "63" }, "team": { "id": "2755", "displayName": "Grambling Tigers" } }, { "id": "2016", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 59.0, "displayValue": "59" }, "team": { "id": "2016", "displayName": "Alcorn State Braves" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.083, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gsutigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2296", "teamName": "Jackson State Tigers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868295", "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "name": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs at Jackson State Tigers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Ladd-Peebles Stadium", "address": { "city": "Mobile", "state": "AL", "zipCode": "36604", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2296", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2296", "displayName": "Jackson State Tigers" } }, { "id": "2010", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2010", "displayName": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gojsutigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Grambling. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Grambling&state=LA&site=SHV&textField1=32.527&textField2=-92.7116&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.718998+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 88. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 62. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph after midnight. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868955", "matchup": "Jackson State Tigers at Grambling Tigers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Grambling&state=LA&site=SHV&textField1=32.527&textField2=-92.7116&e=1", "https://gojsutigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://gsutigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868955", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868955", "date": "2026-10-10T21:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3902", "fullName": "Eddie G. 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Robinson Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Grambling", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "71245", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2755", "teamName": "Grambling Tigers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868359", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Alcorn State Braves at Grambling Tigers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Eddie G. 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Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2755", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2296" ], "finding": "Grambling Tigers: QB Jacobe Robinson/Ashton Frye, RB D'Shuan Ford/Jamarion Parker/Byron Eaton Jr., WR Jordan Bride/Tyson George/Nae'Saan Dickerson, TE Patrick Williams II/Davon Mitchell; Jackson State Tigers: QB Jared Lockhart, RB Nate Blount IV/Emari Matthews/Li'Darius Pryor, WR Nate Rembert/Jabari Jones/Kobe Paul, TE Jency Riley Jr." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2755", "teamName": "Grambling Tigers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868359", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Alcorn State Braves at Grambling Tigers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Eddie G. 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Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Grambling&state=LA&site=SHV&textField1=32.527&textField2=-92.7116&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.718998+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 88. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 62. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph after midnight. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 37.167500000000004, 24.91166666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -7.61363636363636, "combined": 57.11363636363636, "spread_buffer": 0.8863636363636402, "total_difference": 1.6136363636363598 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -7.61363636363636, "combined": 57.11363636363636, "spread_buffer": 0.8863636363636402, "total_difference": 1.6136363636363598 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.3859006858757361, "combined": 56.31814145038483, "spread_buffer": 8.885900685875736, "total_difference": 0.8181414503848288 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.3859006858757361, "combined": 56.31814145038483, "spread_buffer": 8.885900685875736, "total_difference": 0.8181414503848288 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; 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No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868955", "matchup": "Jackson State Tigers at Grambling Tigers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 55.5, "price": -113.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868955", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.391303+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.609823+00:00", "home_line": 8.5, "away_line": -8.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -113.0, "total": 55.5, "under_line": 55.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 275.0, "away_ml": -368.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 3.7375000000000043, "production_adjusted": 3.7375000000000043, "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.7375000000000043, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.36363636363636, 24.75 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6136363636363598, "scenario_minimum": 1.6136363636363598 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.966120382254548, 28.352021068130284 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8181414503848288, "scenario_minimum": 0.8181414503848288 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "directional_buffer": 3.7375000000000043, "scenario_minimum": 3.7375000000000043 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "directional_buffer": 3.7375000000000043, "scenario_minimum": 3.7375000000000043 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "directional_buffer": 3.7375000000000043, "stressed_buffer": 0.7375000000000043 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "directional_buffer": 3.7375000000000043, "stressed_buffer": 0.7375000000000043 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.167500000000004, 24.91166666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 6.579166666666673, "stressed_buffer": 3.579166666666673 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 37.167500000000004, 24.91166666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Souza117, Bonfim163.5 and Ribeiro208.5 missed their class limits; their respective purse deductions are20%,25%,20%. These are weigh-in facts, not measured performance penalties. No team-trade pathway applies to independent UFC bouts." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official Meta APEX card: preliminaries5pmET, maincard8pmET; main event5rounds, others3. Segment start is not each bout start." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor Meta APEX; outdoor weather not a cage-score adjustment." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.ufc.com.br/news/official-weigh-results-ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-vegas-122", "https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-fight-night-october-10-2026" ], "other_review": { "bout": { "id": "401916277", "cardId": "600061541", "card": "UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan", "date": "2026-10-10T21:00Z", "fighters": [ { "id": "3093513", "name": "Ismael Bonfim", "records": [ { "name": "overall", "abbreviation": "TOT", "type": "total", "summary": "20-7-0" } ], "order": 2, "homeAway": null }, { "id": "5123216", "name": "Francisco Prado", "records": [ { "name": "overall", "abbreviation": "TOT", "type": "total", "summary": "12-5-0" } ], "order": 1, "homeAway": null } ], "venue": { "id": "6176", "fullName": "Meta APEX", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "type": { "id": "986", "abbreviation": "Lightweight" }, "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "-", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sat, October 10th at 5:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/10 - 5:00 PM EDT" } }, "format": { "regulation": { "periods": 3 } } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "Francisco Prado at Ismael Bonfim", "market": { "id": "401916277", "quotes": [ { "provider": "BetUS", "provider_id": "betus", "url": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10 10:53:04 UTC", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "away_ml": -145, "home_ml": 122, "home_line": null, "away_line": null, "home_line_price": null, "away_line_price": null, "spread_applicable": false, "spread_complete": false, "total": 1.5, "under_line": 1.5, "over_price": -215, "under_price": 178, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true, "total_units": "rounds", "source_note": "BetUS main total only. BestFightOdds alternate propositions retained separately and excluded from averages. Official card segment times govern, not estimated sportsbook fight times.", "book_updated_utc": null } ], "average_home_line": null, "average_total": 1.5, "spread_quote_count": 0, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "original_endpoint_failure": "HTTP Error 404: Not Found", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; 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Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.ufc.com.br/news/official-weigh-results-ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-vegas-122", "https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-fight-night-october-10-2026" ], "other_review": { "bout": { "id": "401924512", "cardId": "600061541", "card": "UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan", "date": "2026-10-10T21:00Z", "fighters": [ { "id": "4894780", "name": "Daria Zhelezniakova", "records": [ { "name": "overall", "abbreviation": "TOT", "type": "total", "summary": "10-3-0" } ], "order": 2, "homeAway": null }, { "id": "5261515", "name": "Alice Pereira", "records": [ { "name": "overall", "abbreviation": "TOT", "type": "total", "summary": "7-1-0" } ], "order": 1, "homeAway": null } ], "venue": { "id": "6176", "fullName": "Meta APEX", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "type": { "id": "1003", "abbreviation": "W Bantamweight" }, "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "-", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sat, October 10th at 5:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/10 - 5:00 PM EDT" } }, "format": { "regulation": { "periods": 3 } } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "Alice Pereira at Daria Zhelezniakova", "market": { "id": "401924512", "quotes": [ { "provider": "BetUS", "provider_id": "betus", "url": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10 10:53:04 UTC", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "away_ml": -135, "home_ml": 114, "home_line": null, "away_line": null, "home_line_price": null, "away_line_price": null, "spread_applicable": false, "spread_complete": false, "total": 2.5, "under_line": 2.5, "over_price": -200, "under_price": 166, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true, "total_units": "rounds", "source_note": "BetUS main total only. 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Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.ufc.com.br/news/official-weigh-results-ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-vegas-122", "https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-fight-night-october-10-2026" ], "other_review": { "bout": { "id": "401927419", "cardId": "600061541", "card": "UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan", "date": "2026-10-10T21:00Z", "fighters": [ { "id": "4077451", "name": "Niko Price", "records": [ { "name": "overall", "abbreviation": "TOT", "type": "total", "summary": "16-11-0" } ], "order": 1, "homeAway": null }, { "id": "4423215", "name": "Leon Shahbazyan", "records": [ { "name": "overall", "abbreviation": "TOT", "type": "total", "summary": "12-5-0" } ], "order": 2, "homeAway": null } ], "venue": { "id": "6176", "fullName": "Meta APEX", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "type": { "id": "969", "abbreviation": "Welterweight" }, "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "-", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sat, October 10th at 5:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/10 - 5:00 PM EDT" } }, "format": { "regulation": { "periods": 3 } } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "Niko Price at Leon Shahbazyan", "market": { "id": "401927419", "quotes": [ { "provider": "BetUS", "provider_id": "betus", "url": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10 10:53:04 UTC", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "away_ml": 122, "home_ml": -145, "home_line": null, "away_line": null, "home_line_price": null, "away_line_price": null, "spread_applicable": false, "spread_complete": false, "total": 1.5, "under_line": 1.5, "over_price": 182, "under_price": -220, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true, "total_units": "rounds", "source_note": "BetUS main total only. 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Official card segment times govern, not estimated sportsbook fight times.", "book_updated_utc": null } ], "average_home_line": null, "average_total": 1.5, "spread_quote_count": 0, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "original_endpoint_failure": "HTTP Error 404: Not Found", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "401927420", "sport": "UFC", "identity": { "id": "401927420", "date": "2026-10-10T21:00Z", "away": "5292014", "away_name": "Felipe Franco", "home": "4379328", "home_name": "Brendson Ribeiro", "season_type": "MMA bout", "season": 2026, "venue": { "id": "6176", "fullName": "Meta APEX", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": true, "bout": { "id": "401927420", "cardId": "600061541", "card": "UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan", "date": "2026-10-10T21:00Z", "fighters": [ { "id": "4379328", "name": "Brendson Ribeiro", "records": [ { "name": "overall", "abbreviation": "TOT", "type": "total", "summary": "17-11-0" } ], "order": 2, "homeAway": null }, { "id": "5292014", "name": "Felipe Franco", "records": [ { "name": "overall", "abbreviation": "TOT", "type": "total", "summary": "11-2-0" } ], "order": 1, "homeAway": null } ], "venue": { "id": "6176", "fullName": "Meta APEX", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "type": { "id": "990", "abbreviation": "Light Heavyweight" }, "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "-", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sat, October 10th at 5:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/10 - 5:00 PM EDT" } }, "format": { "regulation": { "periods": 3 } } }, "time_note": "Card segment start only; bout time not guaranteed." }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official October9 weigh-in list matches12bout card. Souza117, Bonfim163.5 and Ribeiro208.5 missed their class limits; their respective purse deductions are20%,25%,20%. These are weigh-in facts, not measured performance penalties. No team-trade pathway applies to independent UFC bouts." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official Meta APEX card: preliminaries5pmET, maincard8pmET; main event5rounds, others3. Segment start is not each bout start." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor Meta APEX; outdoor weather not a cage-score adjustment." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.ufc.com.br/news/official-weigh-results-ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-vegas-122", "https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-fight-night-october-10-2026" ], "other_review": { "bout": { "id": "401927420", "cardId": "600061541", "card": "UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan", "date": "2026-10-10T21:00Z", "fighters": [ { "id": "4379328", "name": "Brendson Ribeiro", "records": [ { "name": "overall", "abbreviation": "TOT", "type": "total", "summary": "17-11-0" } ], "order": 2, "homeAway": null }, { "id": "5292014", "name": "Felipe Franco", "records": [ { "name": "overall", "abbreviation": "TOT", "type": "total", "summary": "11-2-0" } ], "order": 1, "homeAway": null } ], "venue": { "id": "6176", "fullName": "Meta APEX", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "type": { "id": "990", "abbreviation": "Light Heavyweight" }, "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "-", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sat, October 10th at 5:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/10 - 5:00 PM EDT" } }, "format": { "regulation": { "periods": 3 } } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "Felipe Franco at Brendson Ribeiro", "market": { "id": "401927420", "quotes": [ { "provider": "BetUS", "provider_id": "betus", "url": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10 10:53:04 UTC", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "away_ml": -385, "home_ml": 300, "home_line": null, "away_line": null, "home_line_price": null, "away_line_price": null, "spread_applicable": false, "spread_complete": false, "total": 1.5, "under_line": 1.5, "over_price": 142, "under_price": -170, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true, "total_units": "rounds", "source_note": "BetUS main total only. BestFightOdds alternate propositions retained separately and excluded from averages. Official card segment times govern, not estimated sportsbook fight times.", "book_updated_utc": null } ], "average_home_line": null, "average_total": 1.5, "spread_quote_count": 0, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "original_endpoint_failure": "HTTP Error 404: Not Found", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "401860902", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401860902", "date": "2026-10-10T22:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3893", "fullName": "Reser Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Corvallis", "state": "OR", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "21", "away_name": "San Diego State Aztecs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "204", "home_name": "Oregon State Beavers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.666666666666668, 12.583333333333334 ], "current_rates": [ 24.6, 28.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 18.166666666666668, 29.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 37.0, 23.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25.0, 24.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.0, 24.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 12.583333333333334, "margin": 12.083333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401760357", "401752948", "401754540", "401760380", "401760382", "401760390", "401760399", "401760405", "401760408", "401760410", "401760420", "401760426" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.6, "pa": 28.8, "margin": -4.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401860879", "401858443", "401860887", "401860893", "401860900" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 29.416666666666668, "margin": -11.25, "event_ids": [ "401752936", "401752937", "401752938", "401752841", "401752939", "401752940", "401754563", "401752941", "401752943", "401752944", "401752945", "401752946" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.0, "pa": 23.6, "margin": 13.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401856778", "401856783", "401860886", "401860895", "401860899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.041666666666668, 15.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.1, 32.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.5733333333333336, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 25.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 25.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 12.583333333333334, "margin": 12.083333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401760357", "401752948", "401754540", "401760380", "401760382", "401760390", "401760399", "401760405", "401760408", "401760410", "401760420", "401760426" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.6, "pa": 28.8, "margin": -4.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401860879", "401858443", "401860887", "401860893", "401860900" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 29.416666666666668, "margin": -11.25, "event_ids": [ "401752936", "401752937", "401752938", "401752841", "401752939", "401752940", "401754563", "401752941", "401752943", "401752944", "401752945", "401752946" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.0, "pa": 23.6, "margin": 13.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401856778", "401856783", "401860886", "401860895", "401860899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.041666666666668, 15.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.1, 32.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.5733333333333336, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 25.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 25.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "San Diego State Aztecs", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Oregon State Beavers", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401860902", "matchup": "San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State Beavers", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "San Diego State Aztecs", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Oregon State Beavers", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "San Diego State Aztecs: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Oregon State Beavers: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 26.144166666666667, 33.82666666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.041666666666668, 15.375 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.1, 32.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.5733333333333335, 0.9266666666666665 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 64, "def_drives": 65, "off_points_proxy": 119, "def_points_proxy": 136, "off_plays": 405, "off_yards": 2351, "def_plays": 478, "def_yards": 2812, "early_plays": 286, "early_yards": 1683, "explosive_plays": 31, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858443", "401860879", "401860887", "401860893", "401860900" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.859375, "def_ppd": 2.0923076923076924, "off_ypp": 5.8049382716049385, "def_ypp": 5.882845188284519, "early_down_ypp": 5.884615384615385 }, "home": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 187, "def_points_proxy": 121, "off_plays": 436, "off_yards": 3034, "def_plays": 447, "def_yards": 2319, "early_plays": 323, "early_yards": 2233, "explosive_plays": 43, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856778", "401856783", "401860886", "401860895", "401860899" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.169491525423729, "def_ppd": 2.086206896551724, "off_ypp": 6.958715596330276, "def_ypp": 5.1879194630872485, "early_down_ypp": 6.913312693498452 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. Calm wind. Saturday Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 61. Light and variable wind. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph after midnight. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Corvallis&state=OR&site=PQR&textField1=44.5647&textField2=-123.261&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "San Diego State Aztecs", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Oregon State Beavers", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401860902", "matchup": "San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State Beavers", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "San Diego State Aztecs", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Oregon State Beavers", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/4685497/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/4869821/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/4917981/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/5079357/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/5088952/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/5245054/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/5254150/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/5302259/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Corvallis&state=OR&site=PQR&textField1=44.5647&textField2=-123.261&e=0", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/204/roster?season=2026", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/21/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview" ], "tu": { "id": "401860902", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401860902", "date": "2026-10-10T22:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3893", "fullName": "Reser Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Corvallis", "state": "OR", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "21", "away_name": "San Diego State Aztecs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "204", "home_name": "Oregon State Beavers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 12.583333333333334, "margin": 12.083333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401760357", "401752948", "401754540", "401760380", "401760382", "401760390", "401760399", "401760405", "401760408", "401760410", "401760420", "401760426" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.6, "pa": 28.8, "margin": -4.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401860879", "401858443", "401860887", "401860893", "401860900" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 29.416666666666668, "margin": -11.25, "event_ids": [ "401752936", "401752937", "401752938", "401752841", "401752939", "401752940", "401754563", "401752941", "401752943", "401752944", "401752945", "401752946" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.0, "pa": 23.6, "margin": 13.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401856778", "401856783", "401860886", "401860895", "401860899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.041666666666668, 15.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.1, 32.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.5733333333333336, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 8.144166666666667, 44.14416666666666 ], "home": [ 7.064166666666665, 43.064166666666665 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401860902", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401860902", "teamId": "21", "team": "San Diego State Aztecs", "side": "away", "opponent": "Oregon State Beavers", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4685311", "name": "Jayden Denegal", "position": "QB", "workload": "71/122, 709 YDS, 5 TD, 5 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/4685311/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5302259", "name": "Draiden Trudeau", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/6, 53 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/5302259/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5254150", "name": "Javion Kinnard", "position": "RB", "workload": "56 CAR, 312 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/5254150/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5245054", "name": "Josiah Lucas", "position": "RB", "workload": "34 CAR, 159 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/5245054/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4912453", "name": "Lucky Sutton", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 150 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/4912453/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5082315", "name": "Nathan Acevedo", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 177 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/5082315/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4827041", "name": "Jacob Bostick", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 90 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/4827041/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4916888", "name": "Bert Emanuel Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 80 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/4916888/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5143596", "name": "Jackson Ford", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/5143596/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5175719", "name": "Ryan Wolfer", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 21 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/5175719/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "San Diego State Aztecs: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/21/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401860902", "teamId": "204", "team": "Oregon State Beavers", "side": "home", "opponent": "San Diego State Aztecs", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5212654", "name": "Braden Atkinson", "position": "QB", "workload": "137/197, 1848 YDS, 16 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/5212654/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685497", "name": "Maalik Murphy", "position": "QB", "workload": "3/4, 28 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/4685497/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4917981", "name": "AJ Newberry", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 271 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/4917981/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5167313", "name": "Cornell Hatcher Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "24 CAR, 120 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/5167313/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5325545", "name": "Tre Garrison", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 78 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/5325545/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5289510", "name": "Jesse Legree", "position": "WR", "workload": "28 REC, 741 YDS, 9 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/5289510/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5293573", "name": "Aeryn Hampton", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 197 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/5293573/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079357", "name": "Aaron Butler", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 155 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/5079357/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5088952", "name": "Eric Olsen", "position": "TE", "workload": "24 REC, 236 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/5088952/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4869821", "name": "DeCorion Temple", "position": "TE", "workload": "16 REC, 138 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/4869821/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Oregon State Beavers: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/204/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 26.144166666666667, 33.82666666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.041666666666668, 15.375 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.1, 32.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.5733333333333335, 0.9266666666666665 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State Beavers", "market": { "id": "401860902", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860902", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.703169+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.961979+00:00", "home_line": -16.5, "away_line": 16.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 52.5, "under_line": 52.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -750.0, "away_ml": 525.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -16.5, "average_total": 52.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.8636363636363633, "combined": 49.04545454545455, "spread_buffer": -17.363636363636363, "total_difference": -3.4545454545454533 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.8636363636363633, "combined": 49.04545454545455, "spread_buffer": -17.363636363636363, "total_difference": -3.4545454545454533 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 6.903754812532853, "combined": 49.48151375639454, "spread_buffer": -9.596245187467147, "total_difference": -3.0184862436054587 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.903754812532853, "combined": 49.48151375639454, "spread_buffer": -9.596245187467147, "total_difference": -3.0184862436054587 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -1.0800000000000018, "combined": 51.20833333333333, "spread_buffer": -17.580000000000002, "total_difference": -1.2916666666666714 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -1.0800000000000018, "combined": 51.20833333333333, "spread_buffer": -17.580000000000002, "total_difference": -1.2916666666666714 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401860902", "matchup": "San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State Beavers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "San Diego State Aztecs", "line": 16.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860902", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.703169+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.961979+00:00", "home_line": -16.5, "away_line": 16.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 52.5, "under_line": 52.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -750.0, "away_ml": 525.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 17.580000000000002, "production_adjusted": 17.580000000000002, "minimum_all_scenarios": 8.817499999999999, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "directional_buffer": 17.363636363636363, "scenario_minimum": 17.363636363636363 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "directional_buffer": 9.596245187467147, "scenario_minimum": 9.596245187467147 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 17.580000000000002, "scenario_minimum": 17.580000000000002 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 17.580000000000002, "scenario_minimum": 17.580000000000002 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 26.144166666666667, 33.82666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 8.817499999999999, "stressed_buffer": 5.817499999999999 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 17.580000000000002, "stressed_buffer": 14.580000000000002 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 26.144166666666667, 33.82666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 8.817499999999999, "stressed_buffer": 5.817499999999999 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 26.144166666666667, 33.82666666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 61. Light and variable wind. Mostly clear, with a low around 38. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 31.5, "margin": -4.0, "event_ids": [ "401767070", "401756887", "401767071", "401767072", "401767073", "401767074", "401767079", "401767075", "401767076", "401767077", "401767078", "401767068" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30.333333333333332, "pa": 31.333333333333332, "margin": -1.0, "event_ids": [ "401868073", "401868074", "401864504", "401868075", "401868076", "401868077" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.0, "pa": 27.25, "margin": 5.75, "event_ids": [ "401760371", "401767080", "401760366", "401767081", "401767082", "401767083", "401767084", "401767085", "401767086", "401767077", "401767087", "401767088" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.0, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 15.8, "event_ids": [ "401868101", "401860880", "401868102", "401868103", "401868104" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.375, 32.25 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.766666666666666, 34.166666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.6550000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 31.5, "margin": -4.0, "event_ids": [ "401767070", "401756887", "401767071", "401767072", "401767073", "401767074", "401767079", "401767075", "401767076", "401767077", "401767078", "401767068" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30.333333333333332, "pa": 31.333333333333332, "margin": -1.0, "event_ids": [ "401868073", "401868074", "401864504", "401868075", "401868076", "401868077" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.0, "pa": 27.25, "margin": 5.75, "event_ids": [ "401760371", "401767080", "401760366", "401767081", "401767082", "401767083", "401767084", "401767085", "401767086", "401767077", "401767087", "401767088" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.0, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 15.8, "event_ids": [ "401868101", "401860880", "401868102", "401868103", "401868104" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.375, 32.25 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.766666666666666, 34.166666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.6550000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868078", "matchup": "Cal Poly Mustangs at Idaho State Bengals", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Idaho State Bengals: QB Jordan Cooke/Davis Harsin, RB Tytan Mason/Robert Freeman IV, WR Chedon James/Julian Mason/Zedekiah Anahu-Ambrosio, TE no primary receiver established; Cal Poly Mustangs: QB Anthony Grigsby Jr./Lucas Razore, RB Jaden Green/Misa Paiau/Koen Glover, WR Tayvion McCoy/Ray Hall/Fidel Pitts, TE Luke Leighton/Alek Marshall", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.72, 37.36333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.375, 32.25 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.766666666666666, 34.166666666666664 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -2.6550000000000002, 4.155 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 70, "def_drives": 72, "off_points_proxy": 183, "def_points_proxy": 187, "off_plays": 512, "off_yards": 3356, "def_plays": 556, "def_yards": 3573, "early_plays": 372, "early_yards": 2325, "explosive_plays": 55, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401864504", "401868073", "401868074", "401868075", "401868076", "401868077" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.6142857142857143, "def_ppd": 2.5972222222222223, "off_ypp": 6.5546875, "def_ypp": 6.426258992805756, "early_down_ypp": 6.25 }, "home": { "off_drives": 65, "def_drives": 67, "off_points_proxy": 171, "def_points_proxy": 113, "off_plays": 422, "off_yards": 2974, "def_plays": 476, "def_yards": 2770, "early_plays": 300, "early_yards": 2022, "explosive_plays": 41, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401860880", "401868101", "401868102", "401868103", "401868104" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.6307692307692307, "def_ppd": 1.6865671641791045, "off_ypp": 7.04739336492891, "def_ypp": 5.819327731092437, "early_down_ypp": 6.74 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "304", "teamName": "Idaho State Bengals", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868104", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Idaho State Bengals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "ICCU Dome", "address": { "city": "Pocatello", "state": "ID", "zipCode": "83201", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "304", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "304", "displayName": "Idaho State Bengals" } }, { "id": "2464", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "2464", "displayName": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://isubengals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "13", "teamName": "Cal Poly Mustangs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868077", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Weber State Wildcats at Cal Poly Mustangs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 6, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final/2OT", "shortDetail": "Final/2OT", "altDetail": "2OT" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Luis Obispo", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "93405", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "13", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "13", "displayName": "Cal Poly Mustangs" } }, { "id": "2692", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2692", "displayName": "Weber State Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gopoly.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Pocatello. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Pocatello%2C%20ID", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.718998+00:00", "status": "indoor", "currentForecast": "Enclosed venue; field weather effect not applied. Travel conditions unestimated.", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868078", "matchup": "Cal Poly Mustangs at Idaho State Bengals", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Pocatello%2C%20ID", "https://gopoly.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://isubengals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868078", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868078", "date": "2026-10-10T22:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "1930", "fullName": "ICCU Dome", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Pocatello", "state": "ID", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "13", "away_name": "Cal Poly Mustangs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "304", "home_name": "Idaho State Bengals", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 31.5, "margin": -4.0, "event_ids": [ "401767070", "401756887", "401767071", "401767072", "401767073", "401767074", "401767079", "401767075", "401767076", "401767077", "401767078", "401767068" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30.333333333333332, "pa": 31.333333333333332, "margin": -1.0, "event_ids": [ "401868073", "401868074", "401864504", "401868075", "401868076", "401868077" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.0, "pa": 27.25, "margin": 5.75, "event_ids": [ "401760371", "401767080", "401760366", "401767081", "401767082", "401767083", "401767084", "401767085", "401767086", "401767077", "401767087", "401767088" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.0, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 15.8, "event_ids": [ "401868101", "401860880", "401868102", "401868103", "401868104" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.375, 32.25 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.766666666666666, 34.166666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.6550000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 3.9158333333333317, 43.91583333333333 ], "home": [ 17.36333333333333, 57.36333333333333 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868078", "matchup": "Cal Poly Mustangs at Idaho State Bengals", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T22:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1930", "guid": "78aa8cec-afda-3e12-830a-9d565fe30f5a", "fullName": "ICCU Dome", "address": { "city": "Pocatello", "state": "ID", "zipCode": "83201", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "304", "teamName": "Idaho State Bengals", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868104", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Idaho State Bengals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "ICCU Dome", "address": { "city": "Pocatello", "state": "ID", "zipCode": "83201", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "304", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "304", "displayName": "Idaho State Bengals" } }, { "id": "2464", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "2464", "displayName": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://isubengals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "13", "teamName": "Cal Poly Mustangs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868077", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Weber State Wildcats at Cal Poly Mustangs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 6, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final/2OT", "shortDetail": "Final/2OT", "altDetail": "2OT" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Luis Obispo", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "93405", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "13", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "13", "displayName": "Cal Poly Mustangs" } }, { "id": "2692", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2692", "displayName": "Weber State Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gopoly.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Pocatello. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#304", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#13" ], "finding": "Idaho State Bengals: QB Jordan Cooke/Davis Harsin, RB Tytan Mason/Robert Freeman IV, WR Chedon James/Julian Mason/Zedekiah Anahu-Ambrosio, TE no primary receiver established; Cal Poly Mustangs: QB Anthony Grigsby Jr./Lucas Razore, RB Jaden Green/Misa Paiau/Koen Glover, WR Tayvion McCoy/Ray Hall/Fidel Pitts, TE Luke Leighton/Alek Marshall" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "304", "teamName": "Idaho State Bengals", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868104", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Idaho State Bengals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "ICCU Dome", "address": { "city": "Pocatello", "state": "ID", "zipCode": "83201", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "304", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "304", "displayName": "Idaho State Bengals" } }, { "id": "2464", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "2464", "displayName": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://isubengals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "13", "teamName": "Cal Poly Mustangs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868077", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Weber State Wildcats at Cal Poly Mustangs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 6, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final/2OT", "shortDetail": "Final/2OT", "altDetail": "2OT" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Luis Obispo", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "93405", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "13", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "13", "displayName": "Cal Poly Mustangs" } }, { "id": "2692", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2692", "displayName": "Weber State Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gopoly.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Pocatello. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Pocatello%2C%20ID", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.718998+00:00", "status": "indoor", "currentForecast": "Enclosed venue; field weather effect not applied. Travel conditions unestimated.", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.72, 37.36333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 11, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.545454545454547, 21.181818181818183 ], "current_rates": [ 18.6, 33.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 19.333333333333332, 24.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 16.0, 29.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 23.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 23.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.45439328573243, 25.289819845579323 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.45439328573243, 25.289819845579323 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.45439328573243, 25.289819845579323 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 25.545454545454547, "pa": 21.181818181818183, "margin": 4.363636363636363, "event_ids": [ "401767298", "401769868", "401767300", "401767278", "401767293", "401767250", "401767242", "401767301", "401767302", "401767289", "401767303" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.6, "pa": 33.0, "margin": -14.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868240", "401864425", "401868241", "401868242", "401868243" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.333333333333332, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": -5.0, "event_ids": [ "401754519", "401767277", "401761606", "401767278", "401767279", "401767251", "401767280", "401767281", "401767282", "401767283", "401767246", "401767284" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.0, "pa": 29.6, "margin": -13.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868139", "401868140", "401868141", "401868142", "401868143" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.939393939393938, 20.257575757575758 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.1, 24.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.8563636363636367, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 23.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 23.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 25.545454545454547, "pa": 21.181818181818183, "margin": 4.363636363636363, "event_ids": [ "401767298", "401769868", "401767300", "401767278", "401767293", "401767250", "401767242", "401767301", "401767302", "401767289", "401767303" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.6, "pa": 33.0, "margin": -14.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868240", "401864425", "401868241", "401868242", "401868243" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.333333333333332, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": -5.0, "event_ids": [ "401754519", "401767277", "401761606", "401767278", "401767279", "401767251", "401767280", "401767281", "401767282", "401767283", "401767246", "401767284" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.0, "pa": 29.6, "margin": -13.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868139", "401868140", "401868141", "401868142", "401868143" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.939393939393938, 20.257575757575758 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.1, 24.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.8563636363636367, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 23.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 23.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868144", "matchup": "West Georgia Wolves at Eastern Kentucky Colonels", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Eastern Kentucky Colonels: QB Jordyn Potts/Blake Kendall Jr., RB Brady Hensley/Brayden Latham/Cortez Stone, WR Elijah Caldwell/Jackson House/Jarvis Hayes, TE Caeleb Schlachter/Jakobie Hughes; West Georgia Wolves: QB Colton Fitzgerald/Luke Marble, RB Justin Montgomery/Christian Monfort/Naeem Odeniyi, WR Brody Jones/DK Daniel/Malik Leverett, TE Josh Schuchts/Colby Dixon", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 25.376060606060605, 25.143636363636364 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.939393939393938, 20.257575757575758 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.1, 24.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.8563636363636367, 0.6436363636363633 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 86, "def_points_proxy": 146, "off_plays": 419, "off_yards": 2037, "def_plays": 406, "def_yards": 2301, "early_plays": 288, "early_yards": 1446, "explosive_plays": 30, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401864425", "401868240", "401868241", "401868242", "401868243" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.3870967741935485, "def_ppd": 2.5172413793103448, "off_ypp": 4.861575178997613, "def_ypp": 5.667487684729064, "early_down_ypp": 5.020833333333333 }, "home": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 59, "off_points_proxy": 82, "def_points_proxy": 141, "off_plays": 411, "off_yards": 2455, "def_plays": 398, "def_yards": 2244, "early_plays": 296, "early_yards": 1688, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868139", "401868140", "401868141", "401868142", "401868143" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.4137931034482758, "def_ppd": 2.389830508474576, "off_ypp": 5.97323600973236, "def_ypp": 5.63819095477387, "early_down_ypp": 5.702702702702703 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2198", "teamName": "Eastern Kentucky Colonels", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868143", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "North Alabama Lions at Eastern Kentucky Colonels", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Roy Kidd Stadium", "address": { "city": "Richmond", "state": "KY", "zipCode": "40475", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2198", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "2198", "displayName": "Eastern Kentucky Colonels" } }, { "id": "2453", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "2453", "displayName": "North Alabama Lions" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ekusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2698", "teamName": "West Georgia Wolves", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868243", "date": "2026-09-26T22:00Z", "name": "Fort Valley State Wildcats at West Georgia Wolves", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "University Stadium (GA)", "address": { "city": "Carrollton", "state": "GA", "zipCode": "30117", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2698", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 49.0, "displayValue": "49" }, "team": { "id": "2698", "displayName": "West Georgia Wolves" } }, { "id": "2232", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "2232", "displayName": "Fort Valley State Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://uwgathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Richmond. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Richmond&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=37.7428&textField2=-84.2936&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.718998+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 68. East wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 1am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. East wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868144", "matchup": "West Georgia Wolves at Eastern Kentucky Colonels", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://ekusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Richmond&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=37.7428&textField2=-84.2936&e=0", "https://uwgathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868144", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868144", "date": "2026-10-10T22:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3908", "fullName": "Roy Kidd Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Richmond", "state": "KY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2698", "away_name": "West Georgia Wolves", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2198", "home_name": "Eastern Kentucky Colonels", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 25.545454545454547, "pa": 21.181818181818183, "margin": 4.363636363636363, "event_ids": [ "401767298", "401769868", "401767300", "401767278", "401767293", "401767250", "401767242", "401767301", "401767302", "401767289", "401767303" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.6, "pa": 33.0, "margin": -14.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868240", "401864425", "401868241", "401868242", "401868243" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.333333333333332, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": -5.0, "event_ids": [ "401754519", "401767277", "401761606", "401767278", "401767279", "401767251", "401767280", "401767281", "401767282", "401767283", "401767246", "401767284" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.0, "pa": 29.6, "margin": -13.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868139", "401868140", "401868141", "401868142", "401868143" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.939393939393938, 20.257575757575758 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.1, 24.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.8563636363636367, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 5.376060606060605, 45.376060606060605 ], "home": [ 3.0224242424242433, 43.02242424242424 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868144", "matchup": "West Georgia Wolves at Eastern Kentucky Colonels", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T22:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3908", "guid": "1dd27d0a-ebf2-3054-898d-aeb0505509a4", "fullName": "Roy Kidd Stadium", "address": { "city": "Richmond", "state": "KY", "zipCode": "40475", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2198", "teamName": "Eastern Kentucky Colonels", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868143", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "North Alabama Lions at Eastern Kentucky Colonels", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Roy Kidd Stadium", "address": { "city": "Richmond", "state": "KY", "zipCode": "40475", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2198", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "2198", "displayName": "Eastern Kentucky Colonels" } }, { "id": "2453", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "2453", "displayName": "North Alabama Lions" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ekusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2698", "teamName": "West Georgia Wolves", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868243", "date": "2026-09-26T22:00Z", "name": "Fort Valley State Wildcats at West Georgia Wolves", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "University Stadium (GA)", "address": { "city": "Carrollton", "state": "GA", "zipCode": "30117", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2698", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 49.0, "displayValue": "49" }, "team": { "id": "2698", "displayName": "West Georgia Wolves" } }, { "id": "2232", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "2232", "displayName": "Fort Valley State Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://uwgathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Richmond. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2198", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2698" ], "finding": "Eastern Kentucky Colonels: QB Jordyn Potts/Blake Kendall Jr., RB Brady Hensley/Brayden Latham/Cortez Stone, WR Elijah Caldwell/Jackson House/Jarvis Hayes, TE Caeleb Schlachter/Jakobie Hughes; West Georgia Wolves: QB Colton Fitzgerald/Luke Marble, RB Justin Montgomery/Christian Monfort/Naeem Odeniyi, WR Brody Jones/DK Daniel/Malik Leverett, TE Josh Schuchts/Colby Dixon" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. 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Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.939393939393938, 20.257575757575758 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.1, 24.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.8563636363636367, 0.6436363636363633 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Richmond&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=37.7428&textField2=-84.2936&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Richmond&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=37.7428&textField2=-84.2936&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 1am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. 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No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868144", "matchup": "West Georgia Wolves at Eastern Kentucky Colonels", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 45.5, "price": -107.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868144", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.731040+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.881782+00:00", "home_line": -5.5, "away_line": 5.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -113.0, "total": 45.5, "under_line": 45.5, "over_price": -107.0, "under_price": -116.0, "home_ml": -217.0, "away_ml": 171.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 2.8984848484848484, "production_adjusted": 2.8984848484848484, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.8984848484848484, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.80785123966942, 22.93595041322314 ], "directional_buffer": 1.2438016528925573, "scenario_minimum": 1.2438016528925573 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.45439328573243, 25.289819845579323 ], "directional_buffer": -0.7557868686882472, "scenario_minimum": -0.7557868686882472 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "directional_buffer": 2.8984848484848484, "scenario_minimum": 2.8984848484848484 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "directional_buffer": 2.8984848484848484, "scenario_minimum": 2.8984848484848484 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "directional_buffer": 2.8984848484848484, "stressed_buffer": -0.10151515151515156 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "directional_buffer": 2.8984848484848484, "stressed_buffer": -0.10151515151515156 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.376060606060605, 25.143636363636368 ], "directional_buffer": 5.019696969696973, "stressed_buffer": 2.019696969696973 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 25.376060606060605, 25.143636363636364 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.939393939393938, 20.257575757575758 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.1, 24.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.8563636363636367, 0.6436363636363633 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Richmond&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=37.7428&textField2=-84.2936&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Richmond&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=37.7428&textField2=-84.2936&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 1am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. East wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 30, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401891805", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401891805", "date": "2026-10-10T22:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1840", "fullName": "Amerant Bank Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Sunrise", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "30", "away_name": "Minnesota Wild", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "26", "home_name": "Florida Panthers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.080386178861789, 2.928252032520325 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.080386178861789, 2.928252032520325 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.080386178861789, 2.928252032520325 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.317073170731707, 2.926829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 2.75, 2.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.0609756097560976, 3.3658536585365852 ], "current_rates": [ 2.0, 2.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1246006311698076, 3.038138671682006 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1246006311698076, 3.038138671682006 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1246006311698076, 3.038138671682006 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.34146, "official_team_id": 13 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.34146, "official_team_id": 13 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Florida Panthers: Brad Marchand Out, Aleksander Barkov Injured Reserve, Jonah Gadjovich Injured Reserve | Minnesota Wild: Filip Gustavsson Injured Reserve, Nick Foligno Injured Reserve, Olli Maatta Day-To-Day, Brock Faber Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401891805", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.990735+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401891805", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.990735+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Minnesota Wild; Primary: Minnesota Wild; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Minnesota Wild; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Minnesota Wild. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -0.37195 to -0.086462. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.0658141036401503 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401891805", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.0658141036401503e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.080386178861789, 2.928252032520325 ], "Primary": [ 3.1246006311698076, 3.038138671682006 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 06:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 3 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020073, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T22:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/MIN/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Minnesota Wild", "previousEventId": "401892460", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "previousVenue": { "id": "1396", "fullName": "Benchmark International Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Tampa", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Amerant Bank Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Florida Panthers", "previousEventId": "401891806", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-07T02:20Z", "previousOpponent": "Los Angeles Kings", "previousVenue": { "id": "1841", "fullName": "crypto.com Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 4, "offDays": 3, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Amerant Bank Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Amerant Bank Arena; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/MIN/20262027", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401891805" ], "tu": { "id": "401891805", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401891805", "date": "2026-10-10T22:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1840", "fullName": "Amerant Bank Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Sunrise", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "30", "away_name": "Minnesota Wild", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "26", "home_name": "Florida Panthers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.34146, "official_team_id": 13 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.304875, 5.304875 ], "home": [ 0.932925, 4.932925 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Minnesota Wild at Florida Panthers", "market": { "id": "401891805", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401891805", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.735555+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.917763+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 190.0, "away_line_price": -230.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -118.0, "under_price": -102.0, "home_ml": -135.0, "away_ml": 114.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.1521341463414636, "combined": 6.008638211382114, "spread_buffer": -1.6521341463414636, "total_difference": 0.508638211382114 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.1521341463414636, "combined": 6.008638211382114, "spread_buffer": -1.6521341463414636, "total_difference": 0.508638211382114 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.08646195948780155, "combined": 6.162739302851813, "spread_buffer": -1.5864619594878016, "total_difference": 0.6627393028518132 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.08646195948780155, "combined": 6.162739302851813, "spread_buffer": -1.5864619594878016, "total_difference": 0.6627393028518132 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.37195, "combined": 6.2378, "spread_buffer": -1.87195, "total_difference": 0.7378 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.37195, "combined": 6.2378, "spread_buffer": -1.87195, "total_difference": 0.7378 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.37195, "combined": 6.2378, "spread_buffer": -1.87195, "total_difference": 0.7378 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.37195, "combined": 6.2378, "spread_buffer": -1.87195, "total_difference": 0.7378 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401902645", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1833", "fullName": "Rogers Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Vancouver", "state": "BC" } }, "away": "12", "away_name": "LA Clippers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Toronto Raptors", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 111.28658536585365, 115.13414634146342 ], "adjusted_score": [ 111.28658536585365, 115.13414634146342 ], "conditional_score": [ 111.28658536585365, 115.13414634146342 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 113.76829268292683, 112.63414634146342 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 114.63414634146342, 111.8048780487805 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 111.5, 115.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 111.5, 115.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 110.56402571587643, 111.78662743439084 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.56402571587643, 111.78662743439084 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.56402571587643, 111.78662743439084 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 110.5, 112.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 110.5, 112.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 113.768295, "pa": 112.63415 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.63415, "pa": 111.80488 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 113.0, 113.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 113.0, 113.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 113.768295, "pa": 112.63415 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.63415, "pa": 111.80488 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 113.0, 113.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 113.0, 113.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Toronto Raptors: Kawhi Leonard Day-To-Day, Trayce Jackson-Davis Day-To-Day, Jamison Battle Day-To-Day, Allen Graves Day-To-Day, Nate Bittle Day-To-Day | LA Clippers: Kobe Sanders Day-To-Day, Bradley Beal Day-To-Day, Max Strus Out, Yanic Konan Niederhauser Out, Brandon Ingram Out. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Preseason DTD/rest decisions may materially reshape minutes; normalized 240 minute examples are sensitivity only.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.155806+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.326024+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.155806+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.326024+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0; home: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0. Primary training games=2796. Classic/current preseason excludes exhibitions from regular baseline; Primary explicitly models preseason with 0.35 training weight. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NBA.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Toronto Raptors; Primary: Toronto Raptors; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Toronto Raptors; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Toronto Raptors. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 0.847563 to 3.847561. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.1368683772161603 e-13. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401902645", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 111.28658536585365, 115.13414634146342 ], "Primary": [ 110.56402571587643, 111.78662743439084 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "2026-27 preseason verified NBA.com; official start 2026-10-10 06:30 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 5 whole off days; home 6 whole off days. Canada Games at Rogers Arena,Vancouver, not Toronto home arena; NBA and ESPN both designate Raptors home and neutral=false. Registered venue term preserved with this limitation disclosed.", "official": { "id": "0012600015", "startUTC": "2026-10-10T22:30:00Z", "source": "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10", "stage": "Preseason", "isNeutral": false }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "LA Clippers", "previousEventId": "401918010", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-04T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Golden State Warriors", "previousVenue": { "id": "540", "fullName": "Stan Sheriff Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Honolulu", "state": "HI" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 6, "offDays": 5, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Rogers Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Toronto Raptors", "previousEventId": "401902644", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Miami Heat", "previousVenue": { "id": "5056", "fullName": "Videotron Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Quebec City", "state": "PQ" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 7, "offDays": 6, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Rogers Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": " Canada Games at Rogers Arena,Vancouver, not Toronto home arena; NBA and ESPN bothdesignate Raptors home and neutral=false. Registered venue term preserved with this limitation disclosed." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Rogers Arena; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10" ], "tu": { "id": "401902645", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1833", "fullName": "Rogers Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Vancouver", "state": "BC" } }, "away": "12", "away_name": "LA Clippers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Toronto Raptors", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 113.768295, "pa": 112.63415 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.63415, "pa": 111.80488 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 92.7865875, 132.7865875 ], "home": [ 93.63415, 133.63415 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "LA Clippers at Toronto Raptors", "market": { "id": "401902645", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.741131+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.945873+00:00", "home_line": -4.5, "away_line": 4.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 216.5, "under_line": 216.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -108.0, "home_ml": -185.0, "away_ml": 154.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -4.5, "average_total": 216.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 3.847560975609767, "combined": 226.4207317073171, "spread_buffer": -0.6524390243902332, "total_difference": 9.920731707317088 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 3.847560975609767, "combined": 226.4207317073171, "spread_buffer": -0.6524390243902332, "total_difference": 9.920731707317088 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.2226017185144116, "combined": 222.35065315026725, "spread_buffer": -3.2773982814855884, "total_difference": 5.850653150267249 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.2226017185144116, "combined": 222.35065315026725, "spread_buffer": -3.2773982814855884, "total_difference": 5.850653150267249 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.8475625000000093, "combined": 226.4207375, "spread_buffer": -3.6524374999999907, "total_difference": 9.920737500000001 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.8475625000000093, "combined": 226.4207375, "spread_buffer": -3.6524374999999907, "total_difference": 9.920737500000001 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.8475625000000093, "combined": 226.4207375, "spread_buffer": -3.6524374999999907, "total_difference": 9.920737500000001 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.8475625000000093, "combined": 226.4207375, "spread_buffer": -3.6524374999999907, "total_difference": 9.920737500000001 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401856715", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401856715", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3683", "fullName": "Kroger Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Lexington", "state": "KY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "99", "away_name": "LSU Tigers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "96", "home_name": "Kentucky Wildcats", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "99", "side": "away", "player": "Trey'Dez Green", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 28.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.833333333333332, 18.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 43.6, 15.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.0, 26.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 34.6, 26.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "99", "side": "away", "player": "Trey'Dez Green", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "isolated_score": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "99", "side": "away", "player": "Trey'Dez Green", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.833333333333332, "pa": 18.333333333333332, "margin": 3.5, "event_ids": [ "401752671", "401752687", "401752699", "401752710", "401752719", "401752732", "401752745", "401752748", "401752759", "401752768", "401752777", "401752789" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 43.6, "pa": 15.2, "margin": 28.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401856660", "401867796", "401856688", "401856702", "401856706" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.0, "pa": 26.416666666666668, "margin": -3.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752670", "401752686", "401752698", "401752722", "401752728", "401752743", "401752747", "401752754", "401752760", "401752767", "401752782", "401752787" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.6, "pa": 26.8, "margin": 7.800000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401856659", "401856674", "401856694", "401864576", "401856709" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.125, 20.666666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.2, 24.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.751666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 21.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 21.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "99", "side": "away", "player": "Trey'Dez Green", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.833333333333332, "pa": 18.333333333333332, "margin": 3.5, "event_ids": [ "401752671", "401752687", "401752699", "401752710", "401752719", "401752732", "401752745", "401752748", "401752759", "401752768", "401752777", "401752789" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 43.6, "pa": 15.2, "margin": 28.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401856660", "401867796", "401856688", "401856702", "401856706" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.0, "pa": 26.416666666666668, "margin": -3.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752670", "401752686", "401752698", "401752722", "401752728", "401752743", "401752747", "401752754", "401752760", "401752767", "401752782", "401752787" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.6, "pa": 26.8, "margin": 7.800000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401856659", "401856674", "401856694", "401864576", "401856709" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.125, 20.666666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.2, 24.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.751666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 21.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 21.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401856715", "matchup": "LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "LSU Tigers", "names": [ "Trey'Dez Green" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Green is a primary receiving TE with 14 catches/222 yards, third in total receiving yards. Replacement routes need confirmation; receiver redistribution rather than nominal TE substitution may carry opportunity. Do not treat this candidate list as confirmed depth chart. | Kentucky Wildcats: current report contains 0 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.41416666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.125, 20.666666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 35.2, 24.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.751666666666667, -1.251666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 64, "def_drives": 66, "off_points_proxy": 211, "def_points_proxy": 68, "off_plays": 495, "off_yards": 3211, "def_plays": 384, "def_yards": 1680, "early_plays": 370, "early_yards": 2163, "explosive_plays": 43, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856660", "401856688", "401856702", "401856706", "401867796" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.296875, "def_ppd": 1.0303030303030303, "off_ypp": 6.486868686868687, "def_ypp": 4.375, "early_down_ypp": 5.845945945945946 }, "home": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 165, "def_points_proxy": 127, "off_plays": 415, "off_yards": 2587, "def_plays": 444, "def_yards": 2244, "early_plays": 306, "early_yards": 2013, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856659", "401856674", "401856694", "401856709", "401864576" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.75, "def_ppd": 2.189655172413793, "off_ypp": 6.233734939759036, "def_ypp": 5.054054054054054, "early_down_ypp": 6.578431372549019 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 70. East wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lexington&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=38.0427&textField2=-84.4595&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856715", "matchup": "LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "LSU Tigers", "names": [ "Trey'Dez Green" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4685269/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4699866/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4826637/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4870609/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4879824/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5078810/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5079405/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5079420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5079482/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5114311/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5122231/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5141697/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5224789/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lexington&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=38.0427&textField2=-84.4595&e=1", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/96/roster?season=2026", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/99/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4921154/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141697/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4921154/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5114311/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141697/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports" ], "tu": { "id": "401856715", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401856715", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3683", "fullName": "Kroger Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Lexington", "state": "KY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "99", "away_name": "LSU Tigers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "96", "home_name": "Kentucky Wildcats", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.833333333333332, "pa": 18.333333333333332, "margin": 3.5, "event_ids": [ "401752671", "401752687", "401752699", "401752710", "401752719", "401752732", "401752745", "401752748", "401752759", "401752768", "401752777", "401752789" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 43.6, "pa": 15.2, "margin": 28.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401856660", "401867796", "401856688", "401856702", "401856706" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.0, "pa": 26.416666666666668, "margin": -3.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752670", "401752686", "401752698", "401752722", "401752728", "401752743", "401752747", "401752754", "401752760", "401752767", "401752782", "401752787" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.6, "pa": 26.8, "margin": 7.800000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401856659", "401856674", "401856694", "401864576", "401856709" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.125, 20.666666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.2, 24.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.751666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 14.414166666666667, 50.41416666666667 ], "home": [ 3.5316666666666663, 39.531666666666666 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401856715", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856715", "teamId": "99", "team": "LSU Tigers", "side": "away", "opponent": "Kentucky Wildcats", "conferenceReportKey": "LSU", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5078810", "name": "Sam Leavitt", "position": "QB", "workload": "92/139, 1221 YDS, 8 TD, 7 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5078810/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5224789", "name": "Landen Clark", "position": "QB", "workload": "14/31, 235 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5224789/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5079482", "name": "Dilin Jones", "position": "RB", "workload": "94 CAR, 426 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5079482/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5122231", "name": "Harlem Berry", "position": "RB", "workload": "27 CAR, 196 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5122231/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079405", "name": "Stacy Gage", "position": "RB", "workload": "21 CAR, 166 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5079405/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5141697", "name": "Winston Watkins Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "23 REC, 354 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5141697/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5114311", "name": "Jackson Harris", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 317 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5114311/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4921154", "name": "Eugene Wilson III", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 210 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/4921154/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5079420", "name": "Trey'Dez Green", "position": "TE", "workload": "14 REC, 222 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5079420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Trey'Dez Green", "id": "5079420", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "2 CAR, 7 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "14 REC, 222 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Phillip Wright III", "id": "5149484", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 4 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Green is a primary receiving TE with 14 catches/222 yards, third in total receiving yards. Replacement routes need confirmation; receiver redistribution rather than nominal TE substitution may carry opportunity. Do not treat this candidate list as confirmed depth chart.", "confirmed": [ "Trey'Dez Green" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Trey'Dez Green", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "Primary": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "TightenUpON": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Green is a primary receiving TE with 14 catches/222 yards, third in total receiving yards. Replacement routes need confirmation; receiver redistribution rather than nominal TE substitution may carry opportunity. Do not treat this candidate list as confirmed depth chart.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5079420", "name": "Trey'Dez Green", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/458", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "99", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 48, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "99", "status": "available", "games": 7, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 29, "receivingYards": 353, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "99", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 7, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.5, "receptions": 14, "receivingYards": 222, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "99" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5141697", "name": "Winston Watkins Jr.", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/465", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "99", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141697/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "145", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 20, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5, "receptions": 24, "receivingYards": 363, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141697/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "99", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 23, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 7.699999809265137, "receptions": 23, "receivingYards": 354, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141697/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "99", "145" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5114311", "name": "Jackson Harris", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/466", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "24", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 19, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5114311/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "62", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 49, "receivingYards": 963, "receivingTD": 12, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5114311/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "99", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 15, "receivingYards": 317, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5114311/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "24", "62" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4921154", "name": "Eugene Wilson III", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/467", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 19, "receivingYards": 266, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4921154/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 12, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4, "receptions": 27, "receivingYards": 239, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4921154/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "99", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 13, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.300000190734863, "receptions": 19, "receivingYards": 210, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4921154/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "57" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Winston Watkins Jr.", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/99/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856715", "teamId": "96", "team": "Kentucky Wildcats", "side": "home", "opponent": "LSU Tigers", "conferenceReportKey": "Kentucky", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4918099", "name": "Kenny Minchey", "position": "QB", "workload": "97/142, 1148 YDS, 11 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4918099/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4879824", "name": "Callum Wither", "position": "QB", "workload": "0/1, 0 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4879824/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4870609", "name": "CJ Baxter", "position": "RB", "workload": "68 CAR, 361 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4870609/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5123048", "name": "Jason Patterson", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 355 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/5123048/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685269", "name": "Jovantae Barnes", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 126 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4685269/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5215172", "name": "Kenny Darby", "position": "WR", "workload": "25 REC, 322 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/5215172/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4699866", "name": "Nic Anderson", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4699866/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5294137", "name": "DJ Miller", "position": "WR", "workload": "5 REC, 96 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/5294137/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5136838", "name": "Willie Rodriguez", "position": "TE", "workload": "22 REC, 194 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/5136838/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4826637", "name": "Henry Boyer", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 116 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4826637/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Kentucky Wildcats: current report contains 0 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/96/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.41416666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.125, 20.666666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 35.2, 24.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.751666666666667, -1.251666666666667 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats", "market": { "id": "401856715", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856715", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.764552+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.953185+00:00", "home_line": 8.5, "away_line": -8.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 50.5, "under_line": 50.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 275.0, "away_ml": -345.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 8.5, "average_total": 50.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -5.068181818181817, "combined": 51.75, "spread_buffer": 3.4318181818181834, "total_difference": 1.25 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -2.0681818181818166, "combined": 48.75, "spread_buffer": 6.431818181818183, "total_difference": -1.75 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 2.7429950494964856, "combined": 50.65869805888657, "spread_buffer": 11.242995049496486, "total_difference": 0.1586980588865714 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 5.742995049496486, "combined": 47.65869805888657, "spread_buffer": 14.242995049496486, "total_difference": -2.8413019411134286 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -10.8825, "combined": 53.94583333333333, "spread_buffer": -2.3825000000000003, "total_difference": 3.445833333333333 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -7.8825, "combined": 50.94583333333333, "spread_buffer": 0.6174999999999997, "total_difference": 0.44583333333333286 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401856715", "matchup": "LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Kentucky Wildcats", "line": 8.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856715", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.764552+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.953185+00:00", "home_line": 8.5, "away_line": -8.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 50.5, "under_line": 50.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 275.0, "away_ml": -345.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": -2.3825000000000003, "production_adjusted": 0.6174999999999997, "minimum_all_scenarios": -2.3825000000000003, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "directional_buffer": 6.431818181818183, "scenario_minimum": 3.4318181818181834 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "directional_buffer": 14.242995049496486, "scenario_minimum": 11.242995049496486 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6174999999999997, "scenario_minimum": -2.3825000000000003 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6174999999999997, "scenario_minimum": -2.3825000000000003 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": -2.3825000000000003, "stressed_buffer": -5.3825 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6174999999999997, "stressed_buffer": -2.3825000000000003 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": -2.3825000000000003, "stressed_buffer": -5.3825 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.414166666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 2.734166666666667, "stressed_buffer": -0.26583333333333314 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.41416666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": -0.26583333333333314, "stressed_buffer": -3.265833333333333 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.41416666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.125, 20.666666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 35.2, 24.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.751666666666667, -1.251666666666667 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "LSU Tigers", "names": [ "Trey'Dez Green" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lexington&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=38.0427&textField2=-84.4595&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lexington&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=38.0427&textField2=-84.4595&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 32, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401856715", "matchup": "LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 50.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856715", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.764552+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.953185+00:00", "home_line": 8.5, "away_line": -8.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 50.5, "under_line": 50.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 275.0, "away_ml": -345.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 3.445833333333333, "production_adjusted": 0.44583333333333286, "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.44583333333333286, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "directional_buffer": -1.75, "scenario_minimum": -1.75 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "directional_buffer": -2.8413019411134286, "scenario_minimum": -2.8413019411134286 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.44583333333333286, "scenario_minimum": 0.44583333333333286 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.44583333333333286, "scenario_minimum": 0.44583333333333286 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.44583333333333286, "stressed_buffer": -2.554166666666667 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.44583333333333286, "stressed_buffer": -2.554166666666667 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 3.445833333333333, "stressed_buffer": 0.44583333333333286 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.414166666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 2.5625, "stressed_buffer": -0.4375 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.41416666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 5.5625, "stressed_buffer": 2.5625 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.41416666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.125, 20.666666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 35.2, 24.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.751666666666667, -1.251666666666667 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "LSU Tigers", "names": [ "Trey'Dez Green" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lexington&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=38.0427&textField2=-84.4595&e=1" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lexington&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=38.0427&textField2=-84.4595&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 32, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -10.8825, "combined": 53.94583333333333, "spread_buffer": -2.3825000000000003, "total_difference": 3.445833333333333 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -7.8825, "combined": 50.94583333333333, "spread_buffer": 0.6174999999999997, "total_difference": 0.44583333333333286 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401856715", "matchup": "LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Kentucky Wildcats", "line": 8.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856715", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.764552+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.953185+00:00", "home_line": 8.5, "away_line": -8.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 50.5, "under_line": 50.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 275.0, "away_ml": -345.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": -2.3825000000000003, "production_adjusted": 0.6174999999999997, "minimum_all_scenarios": -2.3825000000000003, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "directional_buffer": 6.431818181818183, "scenario_minimum": 3.4318181818181834 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "directional_buffer": 14.242995049496486, "scenario_minimum": 11.242995049496486 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6174999999999997, "scenario_minimum": -2.3825000000000003 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6174999999999997, "scenario_minimum": -2.3825000000000003 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": -2.3825000000000003, "stressed_buffer": -5.3825 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6174999999999997, "stressed_buffer": -2.3825000000000003 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": -2.3825000000000003, "stressed_buffer": -5.3825 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.414166666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 2.734166666666667, "stressed_buffer": -0.26583333333333314 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.41416666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": -0.26583333333333314, "stressed_buffer": -3.265833333333333 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.41416666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 38.25, "margin": -11.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401762430", "401762458", "401762463", "401752715", "401762476", "401762482", "401762487", "401757173", "401762502", "401762506", "401762511", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 23.4, "margin": 0.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401858424", "401862708", "401862776", "401862778", "401862793" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 34.583333333333336, "pa": 22.5, "margin": 12.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401762433", "401761598", "401761608", "401752708", "401762472", "401762478", "401762487", "401762494", "401762497", "401762501", "401762508", "401762516" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 38.6, "pa": 22.4, "margin": 16.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401862693", "401862695", "401860881", "401862772", "401862787" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.458333333333336, 36.41666666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 23.2, 31.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.9516666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20.0, 39.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.0, 39.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 38.25, "margin": -11.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401762430", "401762458", "401762463", "401752715", "401762476", "401762482", "401762487", "401757173", "401762502", "401762506", "401762511", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 23.4, "margin": 0.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401858424", "401862708", "401862776", "401862778", "401862793" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 34.583333333333336, "pa": 22.5, "margin": 12.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401762433", "401761598", "401761608", "401752708", "401762472", "401762478", "401762487", "401762494", "401762497", "401762501", "401762508", "401762516" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 38.6, "pa": 22.4, "margin": 16.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401862693", "401862695", "401860881", "401862772", "401862787" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.458333333333336, 36.41666666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 23.2, 31.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.9516666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20.0, 39.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.0, 39.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UAB Blazers", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Memphis Tigers", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401862798", "matchup": "UAB Blazers at Memphis Tigers", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "UAB Blazers", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Memphis Tigers", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "UAB Blazers: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Memphis Tigers: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 20.506666666666668, 39.160000000000004 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.458333333333336, 36.41666666666667 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.2, 31.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.9516666666666667, 5.451666666666666 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 51, "def_drives": 54, "off_points_proxy": 113, "def_points_proxy": 103, "off_plays": 412, "off_yards": 2626, "def_plays": 386, "def_yards": 1976, "early_plays": 279, "early_yards": 1524, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858424", "401862708", "401862776", "401862778", "401862793" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.215686274509804, "def_ppd": 1.9074074074074074, "off_ypp": 6.37378640776699, "def_ypp": 5.119170984455959, "early_down_ypp": 5.462365591397849 }, "home": { "off_drives": 57, "def_drives": 56, "off_points_proxy": 193, "def_points_proxy": 104, "off_plays": 405, "off_yards": 3216, "def_plays": 403, "def_yards": 2228, "early_plays": 317, "early_yards": 2466, "explosive_plays": 46, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401860881", "401862693", "401862695", "401862772", "401862787" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.3859649122807016, "def_ppd": 1.8571428571428572, "off_ypp": 7.940740740740741, "def_ypp": 5.528535980148884, "early_down_ypp": 7.779179810725552 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight Cloudy, with a low around 64. East wind around 5 mph. Saturday Showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 72. Breezy, with an east wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northeast 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Night A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. North wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Memphis&state=TN&site=MEG&textField1=35.1056&textField2=-90.007&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UAB Blazers", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Memphis Tigers", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401862798", "matchup": "UAB Blazers at Memphis Tigers", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "UAB Blazers", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Memphis Tigers", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/4685290/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/4698727/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/4922983/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5079354/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5079548/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5165807/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5220352/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5222671/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5229953/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5264658/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/4711421/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/4897730/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/4918110/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5057381/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5081640/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5092470/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5157261/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5197123/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5203714/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5219011/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Memphis&state=TN&site=MEG&textField1=35.1056&textField2=-90.007&e=0", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/235/roster?season=2026", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/5/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview" ], "tu": { "id": "401862798", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401862798", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3805", "fullName": "Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Memphis", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "UAB Blazers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "235", "home_name": "Memphis Tigers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 38.25, "margin": -11.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401762430", "401762458", "401762463", "401752715", "401762476", "401762482", "401762487", "401757173", "401762502", "401762506", "401762511", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 23.4, "margin": 0.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401858424", "401862708", "401862776", "401862778", "401862793" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 34.583333333333336, "pa": 22.5, "margin": 12.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401762433", "401761598", "401761608", "401752708", "401762472", "401762478", "401762487", "401762494", "401762497", "401762501", "401762508", "401762516" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 38.6, "pa": 22.4, "margin": 16.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401862693", "401862695", "401860881", "401862772", "401862787" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.458333333333336, 36.41666666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 23.2, 31.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.9516666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.8774999999999977, 37.8775 ], "home": [ 21.160000000000004, 57.160000000000004 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401862798", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401862798", "teamId": "5", "team": "UAB Blazers", "side": "away", "opponent": "Memphis Tigers", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5057381", "name": "Ryder Burton", "position": "QB", "workload": "62/110, 791 YDS, 4 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5057381/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5197123", "name": "Nate Rogers", "position": "QB", "workload": "1/2, 13 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5197123/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4918110", "name": "Rod Robinson II", "position": "RB", "workload": "74 CAR, 338 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/4918110/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4897730", "name": "Bam McReynolds", "position": "RB", "workload": "54 CAR, 260 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/4897730/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5157261", "name": "Ja'Vin Simpkins", "position": "RB", "workload": "27 CAR, 108 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5157261/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4711421", "name": "CJ Smith", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 223 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/4711421/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5092470", "name": "Ty Mims", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 223 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5092470/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5219011", "name": "EJ Reid", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 140 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5219011/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5081640", "name": "Scott Isacks", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 46 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5081640/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5203714", "name": "Gabriel Cline", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 18 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5203714/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "UAB Blazers: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/5/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401862798", "teamId": "235", "team": "Memphis Tigers", "side": "home", "opponent": "UAB Blazers", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5165807", "name": "Marcus Stokes", "position": "QB", "workload": "90/123, 1371 YDS, 14 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5165807/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079548", "name": "Air Noland", "position": "QB", "workload": "7/9, 83 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5079548/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5222671", "name": "Jaylin Carter", "position": "RB", "workload": "70 CAR, 513 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5222671/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4922983", "name": "Manny Covey", "position": "RB", "workload": "42 CAR, 218 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/4922983/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4698727", "name": "Dallan Hayden", "position": "RB", "workload": "27 CAR, 172 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/4698727/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5264658", "name": "Jermane Hayes", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 242 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5264658/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685290", "name": "Tychaun Chapman", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 176 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/4685290/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079354", "name": "Stonka Burnside", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 143 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5079354/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5220352", "name": "Hunter Tipton", "position": "TE", "workload": "19 REC, 367 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5220352/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5229953", "name": "Aidan O'Callaghan", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5229953/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Memphis Tigers: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/235/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 20.506666666666668, 39.160000000000004 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.458333333333336, 36.41666666666667 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.2, 31.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.9516666666666667, 5.451666666666666 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "UAB Blazers at Memphis Tigers", "market": { "id": "401862798", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862798", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.888334+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.077503+00:00", "home_line": -14.5, "away_line": 14.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 53.5, "under_line": 53.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -625.0, "away_ml": 455.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -14.5, "average_total": 53.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 11.56818181818182, "combined": 57.840909090909086, "spread_buffer": -2.93181818181818, "total_difference": 4.340909090909086 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 11.56818181818182, "combined": 57.840909090909086, "spread_buffer": -2.93181818181818, "total_difference": 4.340909090909086 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 19.642006099208917, "combined": 58.83718368478024, "spread_buffer": 5.142006099208917, "total_difference": 5.337183684780243 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 19.642006099208917, "combined": 58.83718368478024, "spread_buffer": 5.142006099208917, "total_difference": 5.337183684780243 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 19.282500000000006, "combined": 59.0375, "spread_buffer": 4.782500000000006, "total_difference": 5.537500000000001 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 19.282500000000006, "combined": 59.0375, "spread_buffer": 4.782500000000006, "total_difference": 5.537500000000001 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401862798", "matchup": "UAB Blazers at Memphis Tigers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Memphis Tigers", "line": -14.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862798", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.888334+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.077503+00:00", "home_line": -14.5, "away_line": 14.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 53.5, "under_line": 53.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -625.0, "away_ml": 455.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 4.782500000000006, "production_adjusted": 4.782500000000006, "minimum_all_scenarios": 4.153333333333336, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "directional_buffer": -2.93181818181818, "scenario_minimum": -2.93181818181818 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "directional_buffer": 5.142006099208917, "scenario_minimum": 5.142006099208917 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "directional_buffer": 4.782500000000006, "scenario_minimum": 4.782500000000006 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "directional_buffer": 4.782500000000006, "scenario_minimum": 4.782500000000006 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 20.506666666666668, 39.160000000000004 ], "directional_buffer": 4.153333333333336, "stressed_buffer": 1.153333333333336 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "directional_buffer": 4.782500000000006, "stressed_buffer": 1.782500000000006 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 20.506666666666668, 39.160000000000004 ], "directional_buffer": 4.153333333333336, "stressed_buffer": 1.153333333333336 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 20.506666666666668, 39.160000000000004 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.458333333333336, 36.41666666666667 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.2, 31.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.9516666666666667, 5.451666666666666 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "UAB Blazers", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Memphis Tigers", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Memphis&state=TN&site=MEG&textField1=35.1056&textField2=-90.007&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Memphis&state=TN&site=MEG&textField1=35.1056&textField2=-90.007&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:00:00-05:00", "window": "A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. North wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 30, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UAB Blazers", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Memphis Tigers", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401862798", "matchup": "UAB Blazers at Memphis Tigers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 53.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862798", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.888334+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.077503+00:00", "home_line": -14.5, "away_line": 14.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 53.5, "under_line": 53.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -625.0, "away_ml": 455.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 5.537500000000001, "production_adjusted": 5.537500000000001, "minimum_all_scenarios": 5.537500000000001, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "directional_buffer": 4.340909090909086, "scenario_minimum": 4.340909090909086 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "directional_buffer": 5.337183684780243, "scenario_minimum": 5.337183684780243 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "directional_buffer": 5.537500000000001, "scenario_minimum": 5.537500000000001 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "directional_buffer": 5.537500000000001, "scenario_minimum": 5.537500000000001 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "directional_buffer": 5.537500000000001, "stressed_buffer": 2.5375000000000014 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "directional_buffer": 5.537500000000001, "stressed_buffer": 2.5375000000000014 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 20.506666666666668, 39.160000000000004 ], "directional_buffer": 6.166666666666671, "stressed_buffer": 3.1666666666666714 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 20.506666666666668, 39.160000000000004 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UTEP Miners", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: EJ Colson Jr., Tavorus Jones" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401864517", "matchup": "Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP Miners", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "UTEP Miners", "names": [ "EJ Colson Jr.", "Tavorus Jones" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Nevada Wolf Pack: current report contains 0 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Colson 77 attempts and 67 rushes is principal QB; Jones 40 carries/196 yards is material RB. Both QUESTIONABLE in Thursday initial report. Raymond Moore III has 18 attempts and 33 carries/294 yards; Braesen Leon has one attempt. Actual starting replacement remains unconfirmed. If both unavailable, separate QB passing and RB carry pathways support -6 human sensitivity; no extra deduction for QB rushing.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 31.679166666666667, 24.4 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.0, 25.416666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 34.325, 20.325 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.516666666666667, -1.016666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 45, "def_drives": 46, "off_points_proxy": 109, "def_points_proxy": 98, "off_plays": 306, "off_yards": 1908, "def_plays": 375, "def_yards": 1934, "early_plays": 221, "early_yards": 1342, "explosive_plays": 29, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401864432", "401864443", "401864500", "401864509" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.422222222222222, "def_ppd": 2.130434782608696, "off_ypp": 6.235294117647059, "def_ypp": 5.157333333333334, "early_down_ypp": 6.072398190045249 }, "home": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 56, "off_points_proxy": 76, "def_points_proxy": 178, "off_plays": 360, "off_yards": 1912, "def_plays": 400, "def_yards": 2514, "early_plays": 259, "early_yards": 1124, "explosive_plays": 24, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856664", "401858450", "401860895", "401864505", "401864514" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.3103448275862069, "def_ppd": 3.1785714285714284, "off_ypp": 5.311111111111111, "def_ypp": 6.285, "early_down_ypp": 4.33976833976834 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 87. South southeast wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. South southeast wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=El+Paso&state=TX&site=EPZ&textField1=31.8493&textField2=-106.438&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UTEP Miners", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: EJ Colson Jr., Tavorus Jones" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401864517", "matchup": "Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP Miners", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "UTEP Miners", "names": [ "EJ Colson Jr.", "Tavorus Jones" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. 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"indoor": false, "address": { "city": "El Paso", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2440", "away_name": "Nevada Wolf Pack", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2638", "home_name": "UTEP Miners", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.583333333333332, "pa": 27.5, "margin": -9.916666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752807", "401760365", "401757258", "401757268", "401760383", "401760390", "401760395", "401760397", "401760409", "401760413", "401760419", "401760425" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27.25, "pa": 24.25, "margin": 3.0, "event_ids": [ "401864432", "401864500", "401864443", "401864509" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 30.416666666666668, "margin": -7.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401757225", "401757231", "401752706", "401757267", "401757272", "401757277", "401757284", "401757289", "401757297", "401757304", "401757309", "401757310" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.4, "pa": 41.4, "margin": -25.0, "event_ids": [ "401856664", "401864505", "401858450", "401860895", "401864514" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.0, 25.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.325, 20.325 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.516666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 13.679166666666667, 49.67916666666667 ], "home": [ 3.8541666666666643, 39.854166666666664 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401864517", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401864517", "teamId": "2440", "team": "Nevada Wolf Pack", "side": "away", "opponent": "UTEP Miners", "conferenceReportKey": "Nevada", "officialReport": { "url": "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-08 initial reports: Nevada/UTEP 15:24 MT; NDSU/UNLV 14:53 PT; Air Force/NIU 12:10 CT", "conference": "MW" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5205097", "name": "Carter Jones", "position": "QB", "workload": "42/70, 572 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/5205097/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4819250", "name": "AJ Bianco", "position": "QB", "workload": "12/21, 116 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/4819250/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5265178", "name": "Dominic Kelley", "position": "RB", "workload": "54 CAR, 341 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/5265178/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5220671", "name": "Herschel Turner", "position": "RB", "workload": "39 CAR, 234 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/5220671/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4833591", "name": "Ky Woods", "position": "RB", "workload": "8 CAR, 47 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/4833591/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5226511", "name": "Gary Givens III", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 164 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/5226511/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5158756", "name": "Damien Morgan", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 126 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/5158756/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5153499", "name": "Donnie Cheers", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/5153499/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5216506", "name": "DJ Asiasi", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 39 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/5216506/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5219598", "name": "Trace Estes", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 37 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/5219598/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Nevada Wolf Pack: current report contains 0 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2440/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401864517", "teamId": "2638", "team": "UTEP Miners", "side": "home", "opponent": "Nevada Wolf Pack", "conferenceReportKey": "UTEP", "officialReport": { "url": "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-08 initial reports: Nevada/UTEP 15:24 MT; NDSU/UNLV 14:53 PT; Air Force/NIU 12:10 CT", "conference": "MW" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5141395", "name": "EJ Colson Jr.", "position": "QB", "workload": "49/77, 541 YDS, 7 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/5141395/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5232049", "name": "Raymond Moore III", "position": "QB", "workload": "9/18, 78 YDS, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/5232049/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4685418", "name": "Tavorus Jones", "position": "RB", "workload": "40 CAR, 196 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/4685418/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5221272", "name": "Elijah McCoy", "position": "RB", "workload": "6 CAR, 28 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/5221272/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5390016", "name": "Chris Hunter", "position": "RB", "workload": "5 CAR, 21 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/5390016/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5168770", "name": "Carver Cheeks", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 168 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/5168770/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4877714", "name": "Jaden Smith", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 87 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/4877714/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5390023", "name": "Jeremiah Nash", "position": "WR", "workload": "5 REC, 56 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/5390023/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5172260", "name": "Cash Cheeks", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 59 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/5172260/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5268744", "name": "Jackson Stoner", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 6 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/5268744/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Mason Ferguson", "id": "5148710", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "CJ Simon", "id": "5296559", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Tavorus Jones", "id": "4685418", "position": "RB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "40 CAR, 196 YDS, 1 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "7 REC, 22 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "EJ Colson Jr.", "id": "5141395", "position": "QB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "49/77, 541 YDS, 7 TD, 3 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "67 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Colson 77 attempts and 67 rushes is principal QB; Jones 40 carries/196 yards is material RB. Both QUESTIONABLE in Thursday initial report. Raymond Moore III has 18 attempts and 33 carries/294 yards; Braesen Leon has one attempt. Actual starting replacement remains unconfirmed. If both unavailable, separate QB passing and RB carry pathways support -6 human sensitivity; no extra deduction for QB rushing.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "EJ Colson Jr.", "Tavorus Jones" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "EJ Colson Jr.", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 27.679545454545455, 20.94090909090909 ], "Primary": [ 24.54230327367908, 25.436080811904493 ], "TightenUpON": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ] } }, { "name": "Tavorus Jones", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 27.679545454545455, 20.94090909090909 ], "Primary": [ 24.54230327367908, 25.436080811904493 ], "TightenUpON": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -6, "overlapTreatment": "Colson 77 attempts and 67 rushes is principal QB; Jones 40 carries/196 yards is material RB. Both QUESTIONABLE in Thursday initial report. Raymond Moore III has 18 attempts and 33 carries/294 yards; Braesen Leon has one attempt. Actual starting replacement remains unconfirmed. If both unavailable, separate QB passing and RB carry pathways support -6 human sensitivity; no extra deduction for QB rushing.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.679545454545455, 17.94090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.54230327367908, 22.436080811904493 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.679166666666667, 15.854166666666664 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.679166666666667, 15.854166666666664 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5141395", "name": "EJ Colson Jr.", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/470", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2116", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 16, "passingYards": 64, "passingTD": 1, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 4, "completionPct": 56.25, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 4, "rushAttempts": 13, "rushingYards": 14, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.0770000219345093, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141395/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2916", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 296, "passingYards": 2142, "passingTD": 16, "interceptions": 4, "sacks": 27, "completionPct": 70.94599914550781, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.236000061035156, "rushAttempts": 108, "rushingYards": 287, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.6570000648498535, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141395/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 77, "passingYards": 541, "passingTD": 7, "interceptions": 3, "sacks": 16, "completionPct": 63.599998474121094, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7, "rushAttempts": 67, "rushingYards": 93, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.399999976158142, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141395/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2116", "2916" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4685418", "name": "Tavorus Jones", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/472", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "142", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 12, "rushingYards": 57, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.75, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4685418/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "142", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 7, "rushingYards": 31, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.428999900817871, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 26, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4685418/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 40, "rushingYards": 196, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.900000095367432, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 22, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4685418/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "142" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5232049", "name": "Raymond Moore III", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/474", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2415", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5232049/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2415", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 166, "passingYards": 1035, "passingTD": 8, "interceptions": 7, "sacks": 22, "completionPct": 54.21699905395508, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.235000133514404, "rushAttempts": 87, "rushingYards": 414, "rushingTD": 6, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.758999824523926, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5232049/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 18, "passingYards": 78, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 2, "sacks": 4, "completionPct": 50, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 4.300000190734863, "rushAttempts": 33, "rushingYards": 294, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 8.899999618530273, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5232049/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2415" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5390014", "name": "Braesen Leon", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/475", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2638", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5390014/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2638", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5390014/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 22, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 1, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 22, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": -12, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -12, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5390014/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2638" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5221272", "name": "Elijah McCoy", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/769", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2638", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5221272/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 15, "rushingYards": 47, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.132999897003174, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 3, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5221272/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 6, "rushingYards": 28, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.699999809265137, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5221272/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2638" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5091891", "name": "Lamar Sperling", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/770", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2084", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 35, "rushingYards": 131, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.743000030517578, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 31, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5091891/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2084", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 39, "rushingYards": 234, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 12, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5091891/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 8, "rushingYards": 20, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.5, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 18, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5091891/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2084" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5390015", "name": "Jaden Moore", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/771", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2638", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5390015/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2638", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5390015/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 9, "rushingYards": 16, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.7999999523162842, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5390015/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2638" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Raymond Moore III", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Braesen Leon", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Braesen Leon", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Elijah McCoy", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Jaden Moore", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Jaden Moore", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: EJ Colson Jr., Tavorus Jones" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2638/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.679545454545455, 17.94090909090909 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.54230327367908, 22.436080811904493 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.679166666666667, 15.854166666666664 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.679166666666667, 15.854166666666664 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 31.679166666666667, 24.4 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=El+Paso&state=TX&site=EPZ&textField1=31.8493&textField2=-106.438&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:00:00-05:00", "window": "Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. 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No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=El+Paso&state=TX&site=EPZ&textField1=31.8493&textField2=-106.438&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:00:00-05:00", "window": "Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. 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No availability probability assigned." } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=El+Paso&state=TX&site=EPZ&textField1=31.8493&textField2=-106.438&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:00:00-05:00", "window": "Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditional_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.07692307692308, "pa": 13.0, "margin": 28.07692307692308, "event_ids": [ "401767509", "401767224", "401767217", "401767510", "401767438", "401767511", "401767449", "401767512", "401767513", "401767507", "401767514", "401767515", "401836198" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.6, "pa": 9.8, "margin": 23.8, "event_ids": [ "401864577", "401864499", "401864502", "401864507", "401864515" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 35.92307692307692, "pa": 28.846153846153847, "margin": 7.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401760371", "401757224", "401752823", "401760376", "401760385", "401760386", "401760393", "401760404", "401760407", "401760414", "401760418", "401760425", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.0, "pa": 23.6, "margin": 1.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401862693", "401864497", "401862705", "401864512", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.96153846153847, 24.46153846153846 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.6, 17.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.340000000000001, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 36.0, 18.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 36.0, 18.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditional_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.07692307692308, "pa": 13.0, "margin": 28.07692307692308, "event_ids": [ "401767509", "401767224", "401767217", "401767510", "401767438", "401767511", "401767449", "401767512", "401767513", "401767507", "401767514", "401767515", "401836198" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.6, "pa": 9.8, "margin": 23.8, "event_ids": [ "401864577", "401864499", "401864502", "401864507", "401864515" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 35.92307692307692, "pa": 28.846153846153847, "margin": 7.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401760371", "401757224", "401752823", "401760376", "401760385", "401760386", "401760393", "401760404", "401760407", "401760414", "401760418", "401760425", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.0, "pa": 23.6, "margin": 1.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401862693", "401864497", "401862705", "401864512", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.96153846153847, 24.46153846153846 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.6, 17.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.340000000000001, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 36.0, 18.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 36.0, 18.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401864518", "matchup": "North Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "North Dakota State Bison: current report contains 8 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | UNLV Rebels: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 36.120769230769234, 21.62153846153846 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 34.96153846153847, 24.46153846153846 ], "currentMatchup": [ 28.6, 17.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.340000000000001, -2.8400000000000007 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 52, "def_drives": 54, "off_points_proxy": 146, "def_points_proxy": 45, "off_plays": 416, "off_yards": 2478, "def_plays": 388, "def_yards": 1665, "early_plays": 281, "early_yards": 1435, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401864499", "401864502", "401864507", "401864515", "401864577" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.8076923076923075, "def_ppd": 0.8333333333333334, "off_ypp": 5.956730769230769, "def_ypp": 4.291237113402062, "early_down_ypp": 5.106761565836299 }, "home": { "off_drives": 63, "def_drives": 63, "off_points_proxy": 117, "def_points_proxy": 118, "off_plays": 433, "off_yards": 2281, "def_plays": 431, "def_yards": 2746, "early_plays": 300, "early_yards": 1556, "explosive_plays": 28, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858247", "401862693", "401862705", "401864497", "401864512" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.8571428571428572, "def_ppd": 1.873015873015873, "off_ypp": 5.267898383371825, "def_ypp": 6.3712296983758705, "early_down_ypp": 5.1866666666666665 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor venue; field weather not applied. Travel effects unestimated.", "source": null, "status": "INDOOR" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401864518", "matchup": "North Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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"http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2449/athletes/4912254/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5228015", "name": "Reis Kessel", "position": "TE", "workload": "13 REC, 150 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2449/athletes/5228015/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5087169", "name": "Luke Kokat", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 12 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2449/athletes/5087169/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Braylon Toliver", 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LeGrant", "id": "5150682", "position": "RB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Barry Kpeenu", "id": "5310992", "position": "RB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "10 CAR, 25 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "North Dakota State Bison: current report contains 8 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. 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Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2449/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2449/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Kpeenu ten carries trails Scott70/Mitchell46/Punni26; no lead/material committee trigger established.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401864518", "teamId": "2439", "team": "UNLV Rebels", "side": "home", "opponent": "North Dakota State Bison", "conferenceReportKey": "UNLV", "officialReport": { "url": "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-08 initial reports: Nevada/UTEP 15:24 MT; NDSU/UNLV 14:53 PT; Air Force/NIU 12:10 CT", "conference": "MW" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4870607", "name": "Jackson Arnold", "position": "QB", "workload": "79/133, 1063 YDS, 8 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/4870607/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685495", "name": "Alex Orji", "position": "QB", "workload": "1/5, 9 YDS, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/4685495/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5125754", "name": "Jai'Den Thomas", "position": "RB", "workload": "73 CAR, 383 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/5125754/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4808744", "name": "Jaylon Glover", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 89 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/4808744/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5125730", "name": "Darrien Jones", "position": "RB", "workload": "10 CAR, 26 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/5125730/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4870965", "name": "Taz Reddicks", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 272 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/4870965/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5149831", "name": "Kayden McGee", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 188 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/5149831/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4940235", "name": "Taeshaun Lyons", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 120 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/4940235/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4685289", "name": "Keyan Burnett", "position": "TE", "workload": "9 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/4685289/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5145523", "name": "Jae Beasley II", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 31 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/5145523/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "DeAngelo Irvin Jr.", "id": "5125768", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 30 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "UNLV Rebels: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2439/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Irvin three catches versus Reddicks14/McGee8/Lyons11; secondary rotation, no main-role deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 36.120769230769234, 21.62153846153846 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 34.96153846153847, 24.46153846153846 ], "currentMatchup": [ 28.6, 17.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.340000000000001, -2.8400000000000007 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "North Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels", "market": { "id": "401864518", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864518", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.924494+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.085338+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 114.0, "away_ml": -135.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 2.5, "average_total": 47.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -9.318181818181817, "combined": 53.32167832167832, "spread_buffer": -6.818181818181817, "total_difference": 5.82167832167832 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -9.318181818181817, "combined": 53.32167832167832, "spread_buffer": -6.818181818181817, "total_difference": 5.82167832167832 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.9304146626853651, "combined": 52.82961326585883, "spread_buffer": 1.569585337314635, "total_difference": 5.329613265858832 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.9304146626853651, "combined": 52.82961326585883, "spread_buffer": 1.569585337314635, "total_difference": 5.329613265858832 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -18.030000000000005, "combined": 54.21153846153847, "spread_buffer": -15.530000000000005, "total_difference": 6.711538461538467 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -18.030000000000005, "combined": 54.21153846153847, "spread_buffer": -15.530000000000005, "total_difference": 6.711538461538467 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401864518", "matchup": "North Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "North Dakota State Bison", "line": -2.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864518", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.924494+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.085338+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 114.0, "away_ml": -135.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 15.530000000000005, "production_adjusted": 15.530000000000005, "minimum_all_scenarios": 11.999230769230774, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "directional_buffer": 6.818181818181817, "scenario_minimum": 6.818181818181817 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "directional_buffer": -1.569585337314635, "scenario_minimum": -1.569585337314635 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 15.530000000000005, "scenario_minimum": 15.530000000000005 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 15.530000000000005, "scenario_minimum": 15.530000000000005 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 36.120769230769234, 21.62153846153846 ], "directional_buffer": 11.999230769230774, "stressed_buffer": 8.999230769230774 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 15.530000000000005, "stressed_buffer": 12.530000000000005 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 36.120769230769234, 21.62153846153846 ], "directional_buffer": 11.999230769230774, "stressed_buffer": 8.999230769230774 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 36.120769230769234, 21.62153846153846 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 34.96153846153847, 24.46153846153846 ], "currentMatchup": [ 28.6, 17.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.340000000000001, -2.8400000000000007 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "Enclosed playing venue", "source": null, "window": "Indoor venue; field weather not applied. Travel effects unestimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": "Pick of the Day", "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE", "eligibility_rank": 1 }, "total": { "event_id": "401864518", "matchup": "North Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 47.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864518", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.924494+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.085338+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 114.0, "away_ml": -135.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 6.711538461538467, "production_adjusted": 6.711538461538467, "minimum_all_scenarios": 6.711538461538467, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "directional_buffer": 5.82167832167832, "scenario_minimum": 5.82167832167832 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "directional_buffer": 5.329613265858832, "scenario_minimum": 5.329613265858832 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 6.711538461538467, "scenario_minimum": 6.711538461538467 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 6.711538461538467, "scenario_minimum": 6.711538461538467 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 6.711538461538467, "stressed_buffer": 3.711538461538467 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 6.711538461538467, "stressed_buffer": 3.711538461538467 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 36.120769230769234, 21.62153846153846 ], "directional_buffer": 10.24230769230769, "stressed_buffer": 7.242307692307691 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 36.120769230769234, 21.62153846153846 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 34.96153846153847, 24.46153846153846 ], "currentMatchup": [ 28.6, 17.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.340000000000001, -2.8400000000000007 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "Enclosed playing venue", "source": null, "window": "Indoor venue; field weather not applied. Travel effects unestimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE", "eligibility_rank": 3 } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -18.030000000000005, "combined": 54.21153846153847, "spread_buffer": -15.530000000000005, "total_difference": 6.711538461538467 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -18.030000000000005, "combined": 54.21153846153847, "spread_buffer": -15.530000000000005, "total_difference": 6.711538461538467 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401864518", "matchup": "North Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "North Dakota State Bison", "line": -2.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864518", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.924494+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.085338+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 114.0, "away_ml": -135.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 15.530000000000005, "production_adjusted": 15.530000000000005, "minimum_all_scenarios": 11.999230769230774, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "directional_buffer": 6.818181818181817, "scenario_minimum": 6.818181818181817 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "directional_buffer": -1.569585337314635, "scenario_minimum": -1.569585337314635 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 15.530000000000005, "scenario_minimum": 15.530000000000005 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 15.530000000000005, "scenario_minimum": 15.530000000000005 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 36.120769230769234, 21.62153846153846 ], "directional_buffer": 11.999230769230774, "stressed_buffer": 8.999230769230774 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 15.530000000000005, "stressed_buffer": 12.530000000000005 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 36.120769230769234, 21.62153846153846 ], "directional_buffer": 11.999230769230774, "stressed_buffer": 8.999230769230774 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 36.120769230769234, 21.62153846153846 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 34.96153846153847, 24.46153846153846 ], "currentMatchup": [ 28.6, 17.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.340000000000001, -2.8400000000000007 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "Enclosed playing venue", "source": null, "window": "Indoor venue; field weather not applied. Travel effects unestimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": "Pick of the Day", "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE", "eligibility_rank": 1 }, "total": { "event_id": "401864518", "matchup": "North Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 47.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864518", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.924494+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.085338+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 114.0, "away_ml": -135.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 6.711538461538467, "production_adjusted": 6.711538461538467, "minimum_all_scenarios": 6.711538461538467, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "directional_buffer": 5.82167832167832, "scenario_minimum": 5.82167832167832 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "directional_buffer": 5.329613265858832, "scenario_minimum": 5.329613265858832 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 6.711538461538467, "scenario_minimum": 6.711538461538467 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 6.711538461538467, "scenario_minimum": 6.711538461538467 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 6.711538461538467, "stressed_buffer": 3.711538461538467 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 6.711538461538467, "stressed_buffer": 3.711538461538467 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 36.120769230769234, 21.62153846153846 ], "directional_buffer": 10.24230769230769, "stressed_buffer": 7.242307692307691 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 36.120769230769234, 21.62153846153846 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 34.96153846153847, 24.46153846153846 ], "currentMatchup": [ 28.6, 17.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.340000000000001, -2.8400000000000007 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "Enclosed playing venue", "source": null, "window": "Indoor venue; field weather not applied. Travel effects unestimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE", "eligibility_rank": 3 } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401868065", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868065", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3742", "fullName": "Fortera Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Clarksville", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2627", "away_name": "Tarleton State Texans", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2046", "home_name": "Austin Peay Governors", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 31.100524475524473, 28.589015151515152 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.100524475524473, 28.589015151515152 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.100524475524473, 28.589015151515152 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 44.07692307692308, 18.0 ], "current_rates": [ 39.4, 21.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 35.083333333333336, 27.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 37.0, 16.166666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 31.0, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.0, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.664470971515406, 32.82624550005951 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.664470971515406, 32.82624550005951 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.664470971515406, 32.82624550005951 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 33.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 33.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 44.07692307692308, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 26.07692307692308, "event_ids": [ "401767126", "401762432", "401767304", "401767305", "401767306", "401767294", "401767307", "401767301", "401767281", "401767244", "401767290", "401767276", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 39.4, "pa": 21.6, "margin": 17.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401866410", "401868236", "401868237", "401867688" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 35.083333333333336, "pa": 27.333333333333332, "margin": 7.7500000000000036, "event_ids": [ "401757222", "401752685", "401767248", "401767239", "401767249", "401767250", "401767251", "401767252", "401767253", "401767254", "401767255", "401767276" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.0, "pa": 16.166666666666668, "margin": 20.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868060", "401856669", "401868061", "401868062", "401868063", "401868064" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.705128205128204, 26.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.78333333333333, 29.3 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.5293589743589742, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 44.07692307692308, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 26.07692307692308, "event_ids": [ "401767126", "401762432", "401767304", "401767305", "401767306", "401767294", "401767307", "401767301", "401767281", "401767244", "401767290", "401767276", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 39.4, "pa": 21.6, "margin": 17.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401866410", "401868236", "401868237", "401867688" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 35.083333333333336, "pa": 27.333333333333332, "margin": 7.7500000000000036, "event_ids": [ "401757222", "401752685", "401767248", "401767239", "401767249", "401767250", "401767251", "401767252", "401767253", "401767254", "401767255", "401767276" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.0, "pa": 16.166666666666668, "margin": 20.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868060", "401856669", "401868061", "401868062", "401868063", "401868064" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.705128205128204, 26.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.78333333333333, 29.3 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.5293589743589742, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868065", "matchup": "Tarleton State Texans at Austin Peay Governors", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Austin Peay Governors: QB Chris Parson/Matthew Wilson, RB Courtland Simmons/Corey Richardson/Isaiah Groves, WR Marvin Sims/Jaden Robinson/Denver Harper, TE Jackson Head/Ben Marshall; Tarleton State Texans: QB Kaden Anderson/Braedyn Locke, RB Miequle Brock/Bryce Green/Aiden Ramos, WR Cydd Ford/B.J. Fleming/Bryce Parker, TE Danny Joiner/Klein Essler", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.273589743589746, 29.270641025641027 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 35.705128205128204, 26.541666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.78333333333333, 29.3 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.5293589743589746, -0.02935897435897461 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 56, "off_points_proxy": 190, "def_points_proxy": 106, "off_plays": 396, "off_yards": 3083, "def_plays": 448, "def_yards": 2818, "early_plays": 302, "early_yards": 2386, "explosive_plays": 49, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866410", "401867688", "401868235", "401868236", "401868237" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.2203389830508473, "def_ppd": 1.8928571428571428, "off_ypp": 7.7853535353535355, "def_ypp": 6.290178571428571, "early_down_ypp": 7.900662251655629 }, "home": { "off_drives": 68, "def_drives": 71, "off_points_proxy": 186, "def_points_proxy": 95, "off_plays": 418, "off_yards": 2964, "def_plays": 508, "def_yards": 2764, "early_plays": 307, "early_yards": 2171, "explosive_plays": 46, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856669", "401868060", "401868061", "401868062", "401868063", "401868064" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.735294117647059, "def_ppd": 1.3380281690140845, "off_ypp": 7.090909090909091, "def_ypp": 5.440944881889764, "early_down_ypp": 7.071661237785016 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2046", "teamName": "Austin Peay Governors", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868064", "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "name": "New Haven Chargers at Austin Peay Governors", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Fortera Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clarksville", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37040", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2046", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2046", "displayName": "Austin Peay Governors" } }, { "id": "2441", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 17.0, "displayValue": "17" }, "team": { "id": "2441", "displayName": "New Haven Chargers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.083, "officialScheduleSource": "https://letsgopeay.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2627", "teamName": "Tarleton State Texans", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867688", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Chicago State Cougars at Tarleton State Texans", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Tarleton Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Stephenville", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "76401", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2627", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 56.0, "displayValue": "56" }, "team": { "id": "2627", "displayName": "Tarleton State Texans" } }, { "id": "2130", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2130", "displayName": "Chicago State Cougars" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tarletonsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Clarksville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clarksville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.5611&textField2=-87.3473&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.743778+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight Cloudy, with a low around 61. East northeast wind around 5 mph. Saturday A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. High near 68. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northeast 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then showers likely. Low around 58. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868065", "matchup": "Tarleton State Texans at Austin Peay Governors", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clarksville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.5611&textField2=-87.3473&e=0", "https://letsgopeay.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://tarletonsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868065", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868065", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3742", "fullName": "Fortera Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Clarksville", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2627", "away_name": "Tarleton State Texans", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2046", "home_name": "Austin Peay Governors", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 44.07692307692308, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 26.07692307692308, "event_ids": [ "401767126", "401762432", "401767304", "401767305", "401767306", "401767294", "401767307", "401767301", "401767281", "401767244", "401767290", "401767276", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 39.4, "pa": 21.6, "margin": 17.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401866410", "401868236", "401868237", "401867688" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 35.083333333333336, "pa": 27.333333333333332, "margin": 7.7500000000000036, "event_ids": [ "401757222", "401752685", "401767248", "401767239", "401767249", "401767250", "401767251", "401767252", "401767253", "401767254", "401767255", "401767276" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.0, "pa": 16.166666666666668, "margin": 20.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868060", "401856669", "401868061", "401868062", "401868063", "401868064" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.705128205128204, 26.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.78333333333333, 29.3 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.5293589743589742, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 13.273589743589739, 53.27358974358974 ], "home": [ 7.89147435897436, 47.891474358974364 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868065", "matchup": "Tarleton State Texans at Austin Peay Governors", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3742", "guid": "8488d97b-0ee8-3396-a27c-992bb98c4a03", "fullName": "Fortera Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clarksville", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37040", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2046", "teamName": "Austin Peay Governors", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868064", "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "name": "New Haven Chargers at Austin Peay Governors", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Fortera Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clarksville", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37040", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2046", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2046", "displayName": "Austin Peay Governors" } }, { "id": "2441", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 17.0, "displayValue": "17" }, "team": { "id": "2441", "displayName": "New Haven Chargers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.083, "officialScheduleSource": "https://letsgopeay.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2627", "teamName": "Tarleton State Texans", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867688", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Chicago State Cougars at Tarleton State Texans", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Tarleton Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Stephenville", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "76401", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2627", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 56.0, "displayValue": "56" }, "team": { "id": "2627", "displayName": "Tarleton State Texans" } }, { "id": "2130", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2130", "displayName": "Chicago State Cougars" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tarletonsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Clarksville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2046", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2627" ], "finding": "Austin Peay Governors: QB Chris Parson/Matthew Wilson, RB Courtland Simmons/Corey Richardson/Isaiah Groves, WR Marvin Sims/Jaden Robinson/Denver Harper, TE Jackson Head/Ben Marshall; Tarleton State Texans: QB Kaden Anderson/Braedyn Locke, RB Miequle Brock/Bryce Green/Aiden Ramos, WR Cydd Ford/B.J. Fleming/Bryce Parker, TE Danny Joiner/Klein Essler" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2046", "teamName": "Austin Peay Governors", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868064", "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "name": "New Haven Chargers at Austin Peay Governors", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Fortera Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clarksville", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37040", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2046", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2046", "displayName": "Austin Peay Governors" } }, { "id": "2441", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 17.0, "displayValue": "17" }, "team": { "id": "2441", "displayName": "New Haven Chargers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.083, "officialScheduleSource": "https://letsgopeay.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2627", "teamName": "Tarleton State Texans", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867688", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Chicago State Cougars at Tarleton State Texans", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Tarleton Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Stephenville", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "76401", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2627", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 56.0, "displayValue": "56" }, "team": { "id": "2627", "displayName": "Tarleton State Texans" } }, { "id": "2130", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2130", "displayName": "Chicago State Cougars" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tarletonsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Clarksville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clarksville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.5611&textField2=-87.3473&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.743778+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight Cloudy, with a low around 61. East northeast wind around 5 mph. Saturday A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. High near 68. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northeast 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then showers likely. Low around 58. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.273589743589746, 29.270641025641027 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 35.705128205128204, 26.541666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.78333333333333, 29.3 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.5293589743589746, -0.02935897435897461 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Tarleton State Texans at Austin Peay Governors", "market": { "id": "401868065", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868065", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.950667+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.160962+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": -123.0, "away_line_price": -101.0, "total": 62.5, "under_line": 62.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -150.0, "away_ml": 120.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 62.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -2.511509324009321, "combined": 59.68953962703962, "spread_buffer": -4.011509324009321, "total_difference": -2.810460372960378 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -2.511509324009321, "combined": 59.68953962703962, "spread_buffer": -4.011509324009321, "total_difference": -2.810460372960378 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 4.1617745285441, "combined": 61.49071647157491, "spread_buffer": 2.6617745285441003, "total_difference": -1.0092835284250867 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 4.1617745285441, "combined": 61.49071647157491, "spread_buffer": 2.6617745285441003, "total_difference": -1.0092835284250867 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -5.382115384615378, "combined": 61.1650641025641, "spread_buffer": -6.882115384615378, "total_difference": -1.3349358974358978 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -5.382115384615378, "combined": 61.1650641025641, "spread_buffer": -6.882115384615378, "total_difference": -1.3349358974358978 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868065", "matchup": "Tarleton State Texans at Austin Peay Governors", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "ELIGIBLE_WITH_TIER_DOWNGRADE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Tarleton State Texans", "line": 1.5, "price": -101.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868065", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.950667+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.160962+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": -123.0, "away_line_price": -101.0, "total": 62.5, "under_line": 62.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -150.0, "away_ml": 120.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 6.882115384615378, "production_adjusted": 6.882115384615378, "minimum_all_scenarios": 5.502948717948708, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.100524475524473, 28.589015151515152 ], "directional_buffer": 4.011509324009321, "scenario_minimum": 4.011509324009321 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.664470971515406, 32.82624550005951 ], "directional_buffer": -2.6617745285441003, "scenario_minimum": -2.6617745285441003 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 6.882115384615378, "scenario_minimum": 6.882115384615378 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 6.882115384615378, "scenario_minimum": 6.882115384615378 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.27358974358974, 29.27064102564103 ], "directional_buffer": 5.502948717948708, "stressed_buffer": 2.5029487179487084 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 6.882115384615378, "stressed_buffer": 3.8821153846153784 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.27358974358974, 29.27064102564103 ], "directional_buffer": 5.502948717948708, "stressed_buffer": 2.5029487179487084 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.273589743589746, 29.270641025641027 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 35.705128205128204, 26.541666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.78333333333333, 29.3 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.5293589743589746, -0.02935897435897461 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clarksville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.5611&textField2=-87.3473&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clarksville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.5611&textField2=-87.3473&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:00:00-05:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then showers likely. Low around 58. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 25, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868065", "matchup": "Tarleton State Texans at Austin Peay Governors", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 62.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868065", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.950667+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.160962+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": -123.0, "away_line_price": -101.0, "total": 62.5, "under_line": 62.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -150.0, "away_ml": 120.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 1.3349358974358978, "production_adjusted": 1.3349358974358978, "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.04423076923076508, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.100524475524473, 28.589015151515152 ], "directional_buffer": 2.810460372960378, "scenario_minimum": 2.810460372960378 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.664470971515406, 32.82624550005951 ], "directional_buffer": 1.0092835284250867, "scenario_minimum": 1.0092835284250867 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 1.3349358974358978, "scenario_minimum": 1.3349358974358978 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 1.3349358974358978, "scenario_minimum": 1.3349358974358978 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.27358974358974, 29.27064102564103 ], "directional_buffer": -0.04423076923076508, "stressed_buffer": -3.044230769230765 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 1.3349358974358978, "stressed_buffer": -1.6650641025641022 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.27358974358974, 29.27064102564103 ], "directional_buffer": -0.04423076923076508, "stressed_buffer": -3.044230769230765 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.273589743589746, 29.270641025641027 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 35.705128205128204, 26.541666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.78333333333333, 29.3 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.5293589743589746, -0.02935897435897461 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clarksville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.5611&textField2=-87.3473&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clarksville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.5611&textField2=-87.3473&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:00:00-05:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then showers likely. Low around 58. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 25, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -5.382115384615378, "combined": 61.1650641025641, "spread_buffer": -6.882115384615378, "total_difference": -1.3349358974358978 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -5.382115384615378, "combined": 61.1650641025641, "spread_buffer": -6.882115384615378, "total_difference": -1.3349358974358978 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868065", "matchup": "Tarleton State Texans at Austin Peay Governors", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "ELIGIBLE_WITH_TIER_DOWNGRADE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Tarleton State Texans", "line": 1.5, "price": -101.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868065", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.950667+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.160962+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": -123.0, "away_line_price": -101.0, "total": 62.5, "under_line": 62.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -150.0, "away_ml": 120.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 6.882115384615378, "production_adjusted": 6.882115384615378, "minimum_all_scenarios": 5.502948717948708, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.100524475524473, 28.589015151515152 ], "directional_buffer": 4.011509324009321, "scenario_minimum": 4.011509324009321 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.664470971515406, 32.82624550005951 ], "directional_buffer": -2.6617745285441003, "scenario_minimum": -2.6617745285441003 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 6.882115384615378, "scenario_minimum": 6.882115384615378 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 6.882115384615378, "scenario_minimum": 6.882115384615378 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.27358974358974, 29.27064102564103 ], "directional_buffer": 5.502948717948708, "stressed_buffer": 2.5029487179487084 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 6.882115384615378, "stressed_buffer": 3.8821153846153784 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.27358974358974, 29.27064102564103 ], "directional_buffer": 5.502948717948708, "stressed_buffer": 2.5029487179487084 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.273589743589746, 29.270641025641027 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 35.705128205128204, 26.541666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.78333333333333, 29.3 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.5293589743589746, -0.02935897435897461 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clarksville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.5611&textField2=-87.3473&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clarksville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.5611&textField2=-87.3473&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:00:00-05:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then showers likely. 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No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868065", "matchup": "Tarleton State Texans at Austin Peay Governors", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 62.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868065", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.950667+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.160962+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": -123.0, "away_line_price": -101.0, "total": 62.5, "under_line": 62.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -150.0, "away_ml": 120.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 1.3349358974358978, "production_adjusted": 1.3349358974358978, "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.04423076923076508, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.100524475524473, 28.589015151515152 ], "directional_buffer": 2.810460372960378, "scenario_minimum": 2.810460372960378 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.664470971515406, 32.82624550005951 ], "directional_buffer": 1.0092835284250867, "scenario_minimum": 1.0092835284250867 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 1.3349358974358978, "scenario_minimum": 1.3349358974358978 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 1.3349358974358978, "scenario_minimum": 1.3349358974358978 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.27358974358974, 29.27064102564103 ], "directional_buffer": -0.04423076923076508, "stressed_buffer": -3.044230769230765 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "directional_buffer": 1.3349358974358978, "stressed_buffer": -1.6650641025641022 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.27358974358974, 29.27064102564103 ], "directional_buffer": -0.04423076923076508, "stressed_buffer": -3.044230769230765 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.273589743589746, 29.270641025641027 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 35.705128205128204, 26.541666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.78333333333333, 29.3 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.5293589743589746, -0.02935897435897461 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clarksville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.5611&textField2=-87.3473&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clarksville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.5611&textField2=-87.3473&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:00:00-05:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then showers likely. Low around 58. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 25, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401868087", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868087", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3906", "fullName": "Roos Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Cheney", "state": "WA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2458", "away_name": "Northern Colorado Bears", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "331", "home_name": "Eastern Washington Eagles", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.104166666666668, 27.041666666666668 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.104166666666668, 27.041666666666668 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.104166666666668, 27.041666666666668 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 20.25, 28.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 23.166666666666668, 25.833333333333332 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 23.416666666666668, 30.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 27.5, 37.833333333333336 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 27.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.0, 27.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.62152430144331, 30.74102745341015 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.62152430144331, 30.74102745341015 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.62152430144331, 30.74102745341015 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.25, "pa": 28.416666666666668, "margin": -8.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767119", "401760364", "401767120", "401767121", "401767082", "401767122", "401767123", "401767124", "401767109", "401767117", "401767067", "401767125" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": -2.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868129", "401867883", "401864506", "401868130", "401868131", "401868114" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.416666666666668, "pa": 30.166666666666668, "margin": -6.75, "event_ids": [ "401767059", "401760363", "401767060", "401767061", "401767062", "401767063", "401767092", "401767065", "401767066", "401767069", "401767067", "401767068" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 37.833333333333336, "margin": -10.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401868084", "401868085", "401867884", "401858459", "401868076", "401868086" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.208333333333336, 25.916666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.5, 26.666666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.6250000000000004, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 27.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 27.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.25, "pa": 28.416666666666668, "margin": -8.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767119", "401760364", "401767120", "401767121", "401767082", "401767122", "401767123", "401767124", "401767109", "401767117", "401767067", "401767125" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": -2.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868129", "401867883", "401864506", "401868130", "401868131", "401868114" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.416666666666668, "pa": 30.166666666666668, "margin": -6.75, "event_ids": [ "401767059", "401760363", "401767060", "401767061", "401767062", "401767063", "401767092", "401767065", "401767066", "401767069", "401767067", "401767068" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 37.833333333333336, "margin": -10.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401868084", "401868085", "401867884", "401858459", "401868076", "401868086" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.208333333333336, 25.916666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.5, 26.666666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.6250000000000004, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 27.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 27.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868087", "matchup": "Northern Colorado Bears at Eastern Washington Eagles", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Eastern Washington Eagles: QB Nate Bell/Kaden Rolfsness, RB Jaxon Bell/Kevin Allen III/Malik Dotson, WR Drew Carlson/Rylin Lang/Wesley Garrett, TE Kayden Stuit/Will McKissick; Northern Colorado Bears: QB Brayten Silbor/Kenny Lueth, RB Justin Guin/Brandon Lambert Jr./Kieryus Boone, WR Trey Olsen/Jordan Herron/Garrett Harstad, TE no primary receiver established", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.541666666666664 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.208333333333336, 25.916666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.5, 26.666666666666664 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.6250000000000004, 0.8749999999999996 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 67, "def_drives": 68, "off_points_proxy": 136, "def_points_proxy": 154, "off_plays": 520, "off_yards": 2881, "def_plays": 481, "def_yards": 2908, "early_plays": 373, "early_yards": 1849, "explosive_plays": 43, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401864506", "401867883", "401868114", "401868129", "401868130", "401868131" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.029850746268657, "def_ppd": 2.264705882352941, "off_ypp": 5.540384615384616, "def_ypp": 6.045738045738045, "early_down_ypp": 4.957104557640751 }, "home": { "off_drives": 77, "def_drives": 72, "off_points_proxy": 177, "def_points_proxy": 223, "off_plays": 588, "off_yards": 3476, "def_plays": 486, "def_yards": 3610, "early_plays": 430, "early_yards": 2422, "explosive_plays": 56, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858459", "401867884", "401868076", "401868084", "401868085", "401868086" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.2987012987012987, "def_ppd": 3.0972222222222223, "off_ypp": 5.91156462585034, "def_ypp": 7.42798353909465, "early_down_ypp": 5.632558139534884 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "331", "teamName": "Eastern Washington Eagles", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868086", "date": "2026-10-04T02:30Z", "name": "Eastern Washington Eagles at UC Davis Aggies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T02:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "UC Davis Health Stadium", "address": { "city": "Davis", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "95616", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "302", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 49.0, "displayValue": "49" }, "team": { "id": "302", "displayName": "UC Davis Aggies" } }, { "id": "331", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "331", "displayName": "Eastern Washington Eagles" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goeags.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2458", "teamName": "Northern Colorado Bears", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868114", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Northern Colorado Bears at Montana Grizzlies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Washington-Grizzly Stadium", "address": { "city": "Missoula", "state": "MT", "zipCode": "59812", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "149", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 36.0, "displayValue": "36" }, "team": { "id": "149", "displayName": "Montana Grizzlies" } }, { "id": "2458", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2458", "displayName": "Northern Colorado Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://uncbears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Cheney. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cheney&state=WA&site=OTX&textField1=47.4875&textField2=-117.575&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.923766+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight Mostly clear, with a steady temperature around 40. Southwest wind around 8 mph. Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers after 11am. Areas of frost between 7am and 8am. Snow level 3400 feet rising to 4700 feet in the afternoon. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 55. South wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Saturday Night A 20 percent chance of showers before 11pm. Snow level 4800 feet lowering to 2500 feet after midnight . Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. Light north wind becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868087", "matchup": "Northern Colorado Bears at Eastern Washington Eagles", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cheney&state=WA&site=OTX&textField1=47.4875&textField2=-117.575&e=0", "https://goeags.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://uncbears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868087", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868087", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3906", "fullName": "Roos Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Cheney", "state": "WA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2458", "away_name": "Northern Colorado Bears", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "331", "home_name": "Eastern Washington Eagles", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.25, "pa": 28.416666666666668, "margin": -8.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767119", "401760364", "401767120", "401767121", "401767082", "401767122", "401767123", "401767124", "401767109", "401767117", "401767067", "401767125" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": -2.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868129", "401867883", "401864506", "401868130", "401868131", "401868114" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.416666666666668, "pa": 30.166666666666668, "margin": -6.75, "event_ids": [ "401767059", "401760363", "401767060", "401767061", "401767062", "401767063", "401767092", "401767065", "401767066", "401767069", "401767067", "401767068" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 37.833333333333336, "margin": -10.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401868084", "401868085", "401867884", "401858459", "401868076", "401868086" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.208333333333336, 25.916666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.5, 26.666666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.6250000000000004, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 8.479166666666668, 48.47916666666667 ], "home": [ 7.166666666666664, 47.166666666666664 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868087", "matchup": "Northern Colorado Bears at Eastern Washington Eagles", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3906", "guid": "839ddda0-4347-3072-b03f-a73948822b65", "fullName": "Roos Field", "address": { "city": "Cheney", "state": "WA", "zipCode": "99004", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "331", "teamName": "Eastern Washington Eagles", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868086", "date": "2026-10-04T02:30Z", "name": "Eastern Washington Eagles at UC Davis Aggies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T02:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "UC Davis Health Stadium", "address": { "city": "Davis", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "95616", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "302", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 49.0, "displayValue": "49" }, "team": { "id": "302", "displayName": "UC Davis Aggies" } }, { "id": "331", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "331", "displayName": "Eastern Washington Eagles" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goeags.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2458", "teamName": "Northern Colorado Bears", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868114", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Northern Colorado Bears at Montana Grizzlies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Washington-Grizzly Stadium", "address": { "city": "Missoula", "state": "MT", "zipCode": "59812", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "149", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 36.0, "displayValue": "36" }, "team": { "id": "149", "displayName": "Montana Grizzlies" } }, { "id": "2458", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2458", "displayName": "Northern Colorado Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://uncbears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Cheney. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#331", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2458" ], "finding": "Eastern Washington Eagles: QB Nate Bell/Kaden Rolfsness, RB Jaxon Bell/Kevin Allen III/Malik Dotson, WR Drew Carlson/Rylin Lang/Wesley Garrett, TE Kayden Stuit/Will McKissick; Northern Colorado Bears: QB Brayten Silbor/Kenny Lueth, RB Justin Guin/Brandon Lambert Jr./Kieryus Boone, WR Trey Olsen/Jordan Herron/Garrett Harstad, TE no primary receiver established" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "331", "teamName": "Eastern Washington Eagles", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868086", "date": "2026-10-04T02:30Z", "name": "Eastern Washington Eagles at UC Davis Aggies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T02:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "UC Davis Health Stadium", "address": { "city": "Davis", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "95616", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "302", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 49.0, "displayValue": "49" }, "team": { "id": "302", "displayName": "UC Davis Aggies" } }, { "id": "331", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "331", "displayName": "Eastern Washington Eagles" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goeags.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2458", "teamName": "Northern Colorado Bears", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868114", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Northern Colorado Bears at Montana Grizzlies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Washington-Grizzly Stadium", "address": { "city": "Missoula", "state": "MT", "zipCode": "59812", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "149", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 36.0, "displayValue": "36" }, "team": { "id": "149", "displayName": "Montana Grizzlies" } }, { "id": "2458", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2458", "displayName": "Northern Colorado Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://uncbears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Cheney. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cheney&state=WA&site=OTX&textField1=47.4875&textField2=-117.575&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.923766+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight Mostly clear, with a steady temperature around 40. Southwest wind around 8 mph. Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers after 11am. Areas of frost between 7am and 8am. Snow level 3400 feet rising to 4700 feet in the afternoon. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 55. South wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Saturday Night A 20 percent chance of showers before 11pm. Snow level 4800 feet lowering to 2500 feet after midnight . Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. Light north wind becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.541666666666664 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.208333333333336, 25.916666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.5, 26.666666666666664 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.6250000000000004, 0.8749999999999996 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Northern Colorado Bears at Eastern Washington Eagles", "market": { "id": "401868087", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868087", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.957721+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.144548+00:00", "home_line": -6.5, "away_line": 6.5, "home_line_price": -118.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 58.5, "under_line": 58.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -250.0, "away_ml": 195.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -6.5, "average_total": 58.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.0625, "combined": 54.145833333333336, "spread_buffer": -6.5625, "total_difference": -4.354166666666664 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.0625, "combined": 54.145833333333336, "spread_buffer": -6.5625, "total_difference": -4.354166666666664 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 9.119503151966843, "combined": 52.362551754853456, "spread_buffer": 2.6195031519668426, "total_difference": -6.137448245146544 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 9.119503151966843, "combined": 52.362551754853456, "spread_buffer": 2.6195031519668426, "total_difference": -6.137448245146544 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "324", "side": "away", "player": "Colton Hinton", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "324", "side": "away", "player": "Colton Hinton", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "isolated_score": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 33.916666666666664, "margin": -11.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401754616", "401761597", "401761604", "401761611", "401761619", "401761623", "401761629", "401761640", "401761645", "401761650", "401752779", "401761662" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.8, "pa": 25.0, "margin": -0.1999999999999993, "event_ids": [ "401856780", "401868008", "401869940", "401869941", "401869942" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 30.75, "pa": 30.25, "margin": 0.5, "event_ids": [ "401752669", "401757228", "401761606", "401757264", "401761615", "401761626", "401761632", "401761640", "401761646", "401761651", "401761656", "401761663" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 22.2, "pa": 35.0, "margin": -12.8, "event_ids": [ "401858434", "401871045", "401871047", "401868188", "401869962" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 32.33333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 29.9, 23.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.10166666666666693, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Colton Hinton" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401869943", "matchup": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering Herd", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "names": [ "Colton Hinton" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Hinton second receiving yards 10/220 and four TD; QUESTIONABLE creates two scenarios without assigning an availability probability. | Marshall Thundering Herd: current report contains 0 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 32.33333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.9, 23.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.10166666666666693, 1.398333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 64, "off_points_proxy": 117, "def_points_proxy": 124, "off_plays": 408, "off_yards": 2333, "def_plays": 420, "def_yards": 2465, "early_plays": 290, "early_yards": 1735, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856780", "401868008", "401869940", "401869941", "401869942" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.9830508474576272, "def_ppd": 1.9375, "off_ypp": 5.7181372549019605, "def_ypp": 5.869047619047619, "early_down_ypp": 5.982758620689655 }, "home": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 54, "off_points_proxy": 105, "def_points_proxy": 162, "off_plays": 455, "off_yards": 2765, "def_plays": 422, "def_yards": 3020, "early_plays": 327, "early_yards": 1838, "explosive_plays": 40, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858434", "401868188", "401869962", "401871045", "401871047" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.6935483870967742, "def_ppd": 3.0, "off_ypp": 6.076923076923077, "def_ypp": 7.156398104265403, "early_down_ypp": 5.620795107033639 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 71. East wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 58. East wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntington&state=WV&site=RLX&textField1=38.413&textField2=-82.4338&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Colton Hinton" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401869943", "matchup": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering Herd", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "names": [ "Colton Hinton" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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"https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview" ], "tu": { "id": "401869943", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401869943", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3775", "fullName": "Joan C. Edwards Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Huntington", "state": "WV", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "324", "away_name": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "276", "home_name": "Marshall Thundering Herd", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 33.916666666666664, "margin": -11.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401754616", "401761597", "401761604", "401761611", "401761619", "401761623", "401761629", "401761640", "401761645", "401761650", "401752779", "401761662" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.8, "pa": 25.0, "margin": -0.1999999999999993, "event_ids": [ "401856780", "401868008", "401869940", "401869941", "401869942" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 30.75, "pa": 30.25, "margin": 0.5, "event_ids": [ "401752669", "401757228", "401761606", "401757264", "401761615", "401761626", "401761632", "401761640", "401761646", "401761651", "401761656", "401761663" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 22.2, "pa": 35.0, "margin": -12.8, "event_ids": [ "401858434", "401871045", "401871047", "401868188", "401869962" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 32.33333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 29.9, 23.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.10166666666666693, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 10.322499999999998, 46.3225 ], "home": [ 11.364999999999998, 47.364999999999995 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401869943", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401869943", "teamId": "324", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "side": "away", "opponent": "Marshall Thundering Herd", "conferenceReportKey": "Coastal Carolina", "officialReport": { "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "posted": "Initial reports October 7-8; exact per-game timestamps retained below", "conference": "SB" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5296439", "name": "Deuce Bailey", "position": "QB", "workload": "85/155, 1267 YDS, 12 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5296439/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5152029", "name": "Tre Guerra", "position": "QB", "workload": "1/3, 6 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5152029/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5203477", "name": "Dominic Lee-Knicely", "position": "RB", "workload": "37 CAR, 193 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5203477/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5265325", "name": "Jevon Edwards", "position": "RB", "workload": "44 CAR, 141 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5265325/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5193388", "name": "Jaden Allen-Hendrix", "position": "RB", "workload": "12 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5193388/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5265446", "name": "Clayton Coppock Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 231 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5265446/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5153389", "name": "Colton Hinton", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 220 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5153389/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5296438", "name": "Tristian Gardner", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 218 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5296438/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5095242", "name": "Cyrus Ellison", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 48 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5095242/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5379841", "name": "Ben Verges", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 17 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5379841/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Colton Hinton", "id": "5153389", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "10 REC, 220 YDS, 4 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Hinton second receiving yards 10/220 and four TD; QUESTIONABLE creates two scenarios without assigning an availability probability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Colton Hinton" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Colton Hinton", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 24.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "Primary": [ 18.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "TightenUpON": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Hinton second receiving yards 10/220 and four TD; QUESTIONABLE creates two scenarios without assigning an availability probability.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5153389", "name": "Colton Hinton", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/532", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "231", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 29, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 29, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 26, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.5, "receptions": 59, "receivingYards": 649, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5153389/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "324", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 8, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5153389/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "324", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 220, "receivingTD": 4, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5153389/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "231", "324" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5265446", "name": "Clayton Coppock Jr.", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/537", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "324", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5265446/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "338", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 12, "rushingYards": 47, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.9170000553131104, "receptions": 26, "receivingYards": 304, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5265446/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "324", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 231, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5265446/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "324", "338" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5296438", "name": "Tristian Gardner", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/538", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "324", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5296438/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2623", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 30, "receivingYards": 465, "receivingTD": 6, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5296438/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "324", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 218, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5296438/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "324", "2623" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4870699", "name": "Karmello English", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/539", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2698", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 48, "receivingYards": 693, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4870699/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "324", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 19, "receivingYards": 178, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4870699/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "324", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 10, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 10, "receptions": 15, "receivingYards": 169, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4870699/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2698", "324" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Clayton Coppock Jr.", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Tristian Gardner", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Colton Hinton" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/324/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401869943", "teamId": "276", "team": "Marshall Thundering Herd", "side": "home", "opponent": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "conferenceReportKey": "Marshall", "officialReport": { "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "posted": "Initial reports October 7-8; exact per-game timestamps retained below", "conference": "SB" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4432691", "name": "Carlos Del Rio-Wilson", "position": "QB", "workload": "88/134, 1004 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/4432691/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685697", "name": "Zion Turner", "position": "QB", "workload": "15/24, 155 YDS, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/4685697/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5084210", "name": "Jo'Shon Barbie", "position": "RB", "workload": "42 CAR, 207 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/5084210/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5300926", "name": "TJ Lester", "position": "RB", "workload": "22 CAR, 107 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/5300926/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5161776", "name": "Judah Price", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 83 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/5161776/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5081172", "name": "Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 324 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/5081172/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5225343", "name": "Owen Sweeney", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 128 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/5225343/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5089545", "name": "De'Andre Tamarez", "position": "WR", "workload": "4 REC, 106 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/5089545/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4869602", "name": "Toby Payne", "position": "TE", "workload": "19 REC, 147 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/4869602/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Marshall Thundering Herd: current report contains 0 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/276/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 32.33333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.9, 23.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.10166666666666693, 1.398333333333333 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering Herd", "market": { "id": "401869943", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869943", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.966513+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.133981+00:00", "home_line": -4.0, "away_line": 4.0, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 58.5, "under_line": 58.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -185.0, "away_ml": 154.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -4.0, "average_total": 58.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.7954545454545432, "combined": 56.43181818181817, "spread_buffer": -2.204545454545457, "total_difference": -2.0681818181818272 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.7954545454545432, "combined": 56.43181818181817, "spread_buffer": -2.204545454545457, "total_difference": -2.0681818181818272 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 13.219537627629062, "combined": 56.08646911020131, "spread_buffer": 9.219537627629062, "total_difference": -2.413530889798693 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 13.219537627629062, "combined": 56.08646911020131, "spread_buffer": 9.219537627629062, "total_difference": -2.413530889798693 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.0425000000000004, "combined": 57.6875, "spread_buffer": -2.9574999999999996, "total_difference": -0.8125 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.0425000000000004, "combined": 57.6875, "spread_buffer": -2.9574999999999996, "total_difference": -0.8125 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401869943", "matchup": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering Herd", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "line": 4.0, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869943", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.966513+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.133981+00:00", "home_line": -4.0, "away_line": 4.0, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 58.5, "under_line": 58.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -185.0, "away_ml": 154.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 2.9574999999999996, "production_adjusted": 2.9574999999999996, "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.042500000000000426, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "directional_buffer": 2.204545454545457, "scenario_minimum": -0.7954545454545432 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "directional_buffer": -9.219537627629062, "scenario_minimum": -12.219537627629062 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 2.9574999999999996, "scenario_minimum": -0.042500000000000426 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 2.9574999999999996, "scenario_minimum": -0.042500000000000426 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": -0.042500000000000426, "stressed_buffer": -3.0425000000000004 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": -0.042500000000000426, "stressed_buffer": -3.0425000000000004 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 2.9574999999999996, "stressed_buffer": -0.042500000000000426 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 27.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6366666666666667, "stressed_buffer": -1.3633333333333333 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 4.636666666666667, "stressed_buffer": 1.6366666666666667 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 32.33333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.9, 23.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.10166666666666693, 1.398333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "names": [ "Colton Hinton" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntington&state=WV&site=RLX&textField1=38.413&textField2=-82.4338&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntington&state=WV&site=RLX&textField1=38.413&textField2=-82.4338&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 58. East wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 23, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Colton Hinton" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401869943", "matchup": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering Herd", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 58.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869943", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.966513+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.133981+00:00", "home_line": -4.0, "away_line": 4.0, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 58.5, "under_line": 58.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -185.0, "away_ml": 154.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 0.8125, "production_adjusted": 0.8125, "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.86666666666666, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "directional_buffer": 2.0681818181818272, "scenario_minimum": 2.0681818181818272 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "directional_buffer": 2.413530889798693, "scenario_minimum": 2.413530889798693 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8125, "scenario_minimum": 0.8125 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8125, "scenario_minimum": 0.8125 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": -0.86666666666666, "stressed_buffer": -3.86666666666666 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 3.8125, "stressed_buffer": 0.8125 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8125, "stressed_buffer": -2.1875 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 27.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 2.13333333333334, "stressed_buffer": -0.86666666666666 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": -0.86666666666666, "stressed_buffer": -3.86666666666666 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 32.33333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.9, 23.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.10166666666666693, 1.398333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "names": [ "Colton Hinton" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntington&state=WV&site=RLX&textField1=38.413&textField2=-82.4338&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntington&state=WV&site=RLX&textField1=38.413&textField2=-82.4338&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 58. East wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 23, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Colton Hinton" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.0425000000000004, "combined": 57.6875, "spread_buffer": -2.9574999999999996, "total_difference": -0.8125 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.0425000000000004, "combined": 57.6875, "spread_buffer": -2.9574999999999996, "total_difference": -0.8125 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401869943", "matchup": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering Herd", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "line": 4.0, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869943", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.966513+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.133981+00:00", "home_line": -4.0, "away_line": 4.0, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 58.5, "under_line": 58.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -185.0, "away_ml": 154.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 2.9574999999999996, "production_adjusted": 2.9574999999999996, "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.042500000000000426, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "directional_buffer": 2.204545454545457, "scenario_minimum": -0.7954545454545432 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "directional_buffer": -9.219537627629062, "scenario_minimum": -12.219537627629062 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 2.9574999999999996, "scenario_minimum": -0.042500000000000426 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 2.9574999999999996, "scenario_minimum": -0.042500000000000426 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": -0.042500000000000426, "stressed_buffer": -3.0425000000000004 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": -0.042500000000000426, "stressed_buffer": -3.0425000000000004 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 2.9574999999999996, "stressed_buffer": -0.042500000000000426 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 27.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6366666666666667, "stressed_buffer": -1.3633333333333333 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 4.636666666666667, "stressed_buffer": 1.6366666666666667 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 32.33333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.9, 23.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.10166666666666693, 1.398333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "names": [ "Colton Hinton" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntington&state=WV&site=RLX&textField1=38.413&textField2=-82.4338&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntington&state=WV&site=RLX&textField1=38.413&textField2=-82.4338&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 58. 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New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 23, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Colton Hinton" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401869943", "matchup": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering Herd", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 58.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869943", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.966513+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.133981+00:00", "home_line": -4.0, "away_line": 4.0, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 58.5, "under_line": 58.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -185.0, "away_ml": 154.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 0.8125, "production_adjusted": 0.8125, "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.86666666666666, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "directional_buffer": 2.0681818181818272, "scenario_minimum": 2.0681818181818272 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "directional_buffer": 2.413530889798693, "scenario_minimum": 2.413530889798693 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8125, "scenario_minimum": 0.8125 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8125, "scenario_minimum": 0.8125 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": -0.86666666666666, "stressed_buffer": -3.86666666666666 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 3.8125, "stressed_buffer": 0.8125 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 0.8125, "stressed_buffer": -2.1875 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 27.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": 2.13333333333334, "stressed_buffer": -0.86666666666666 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "directional_buffer": -0.86666666666666, "stressed_buffer": -3.86666666666666 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 32.33333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.9, 23.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.10166666666666693, 1.398333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "names": [ "Colton Hinton" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntington&state=WV&site=RLX&textField1=38.413&textField2=-82.4338&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntington&state=WV&site=RLX&textField1=38.413&textField2=-82.4338&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 58. East wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 23, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Colton Hinton" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892472", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892472", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1848", "fullName": "KeyBank Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Buffalo", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "129764", "away_name": "Utah Mammoth", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2", "home_name": "Buffalo Sabres", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.104410569105691, 3.2224796747967477 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.104410569105691, 3.2224796747967477 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.104410569105691, 3.2224796747967477 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.268292682926829, 2.926829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 3.6, 2.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.5121951219512195, 2.9390243902439024 ], "current_rates": [ 2.5, 3.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1344478391434594, 3.3964888999403366 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1344478391434594, 3.3964888999403366 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1344478391434594, 3.3964888999403366 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 68 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.45121, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 7 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 68 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.45121, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 7 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Buffalo Sabres: Jason Zucker Injured Reserve, Alex Lyon Injured Reserve, Conor Timmins Injured Reserve, Topias Leinonen Injured Reserve, Jack Rathbone Injured Reserve | Utah Mammoth: Michael Carcone Day-To-Day, Maveric Lamoureux Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892472", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.970281+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892472", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.970281+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Buffalo Sabres; Primary: Buffalo Sabres; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Buffalo Sabres; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Buffalo Sabres. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 0.09146 to 0.262041. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 9.325873406851315 e-15. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892472", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 9.325873406851315e-15, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.104410569105691, 3.2224796747967477 ], "Primary": [ 3.1344478391434594, 3.3964888999403366 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020074, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/UTA/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Utah Mammoth", "previousEventId": "401892457", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Boston Bruins", "previousVenue": { "id": "1824", "fullName": "TD Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Boston", "state": "MA", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to KeyBank Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Buffalo Sabres", "previousEventId": "401892458", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Dallas Stars", "previousVenue": { "id": "1848", "fullName": "KeyBank Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Buffalo", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to KeyBank Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at KeyBank Center; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/UTA/20262027", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892472" ], "tu": { "id": "401892472", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892472", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1848", "fullName": "KeyBank Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Buffalo", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "129764", "away_name": "Utah Mammoth", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2", "home_name": "Buffalo Sabres", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 68 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.45121, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 7 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0975549999999998, 5.097555 ], "home": [ 1.1890150000000004, 5.189015 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Utah Mammoth at Buffalo Sabres", "market": { "id": "401892472", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892472", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.081021+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.269548+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -290.0, "away_line_price": 235.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 102.0, "under_price": -122.0, "home_ml": -112.0, "away_ml": -108.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.11806910569105655, "combined": 6.326890243902438, "spread_buffer": 1.6180691056910566, "total_difference": -0.17310975609756163 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.11806910569105655, "combined": 6.326890243902438, "spread_buffer": 1.6180691056910566, "total_difference": -0.17310975609756163 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.2620410607968773, "combined": 6.530936739083796, "spread_buffer": 1.7620410607968773, "total_difference": 0.030936739083795572 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.2620410607968773, "combined": 6.530936739083796, "spread_buffer": 1.7620410607968773, "total_difference": 0.030936739083795572 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.09146000000000054, "combined": 6.28657, "spread_buffer": 1.5914600000000005, "total_difference": -0.2134299999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.09146000000000054, "combined": 6.28657, "spread_buffer": 1.5914600000000005, "total_difference": -0.2134299999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.09146000000000054, "combined": 6.28657, "spread_buffer": 1.5914600000000005, "total_difference": -0.2134299999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.09146000000000054, "combined": 6.28657, "spread_buffer": 1.5914600000000005, "total_difference": -0.2134299999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892473", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892473", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1831", "fullName": "Bell Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Montreal", "state": "QC", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "Detroit Red Wings", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "10", "home_name": "Montreal Canadiens", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.0295731707317075, 3.4323170731707315 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0295731707317075, 3.4323170731707315 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0295731707317075, 3.4323170731707315 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 2.9390243902439024, 3.1463414634146343 ], "current_rates": [ 2.5, 3.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.451219512195122, 3.1219512195121952 ], "current_rates": [ 3.5, 4.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.9208617150865868, 3.424260077560548 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.9208617150865868, 3.424260077560548 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.9208617150865868, 3.424260077560548 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.9878, 3.249995 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.9878, 3.249995 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.9878, 3.249995 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.91463, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 17 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.40243, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 8 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.9878, 3.249995 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.9878, 3.249995 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.9878, 3.249995 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.91463, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 17 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.40243, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 8 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Montreal Canadiens: Sam Montembeault Out, Oliver Kapanen Day-To-Day, Ivan Demidov Injured Reserve, Kaiden Guhle Injured Reserve, Bryce Pickford Injured Reserve | Detroit Red Wings: J.T. Compher Injured Reserve, Mason Appleton Injured Reserve, Marco Kasper Injured Reserve, Simon Edvinsson Out. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892473", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.221284+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892473", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.221284+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Montreal Canadiens; Primary: Montreal Canadiens; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Montreal Canadiens; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Montreal Canadiens. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 0.262195 to 0.503398. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.1546319456101628 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892473", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.1546319456101628e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.0295731707317075, 3.4323170731707315 ], "Primary": [ 2.9208617150865868, 3.424260077560548 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 2.9878, 3.249995 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 2.9878, 3.249995 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 0 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020075, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/MTL/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Detroit Red Wings", "previousEventId": "401892465", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Seattle Kraken", "previousVenue": { "id": "5404", "fullName": "Little Caesars Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Detroit", "state": "MI", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 1, "offDays": 0, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Bell Centre; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Montreal Canadiens", "previousEventId": "401892459", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Nashville Predators", "previousVenue": { "id": "1831", "fullName": "Bell Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Montreal", "state": "QC", "country": "Canada" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Bell Centre; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Bell Centre; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/MTL/20262027", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892473" ], "tu": { "id": "401892473", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892473", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1831", "fullName": "Bell Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Montreal", "state": "QC", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "Detroit Red Wings", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "10", "home_name": "Montreal Canadiens", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 2.9878, 3.249995 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.91463, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 17 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.40243, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 8 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9878, 4.9878 ], "home": [ 1.2499950000000002, 5.249995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens", "market": { "id": "401892473", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892473", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.089357+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.250056+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 114.0, "away_line_price": -135.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 102.0, "under_price": -122.0, "home_ml": -205.0, "away_ml": 170.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.402743902439024, "combined": 6.461890243902439, "spread_buffer": -1.097256097560976, "total_difference": -0.038109756097560954 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.402743902439024, "combined": 6.461890243902439, "spread_buffer": -1.097256097560976, "total_difference": -0.038109756097560954 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.5033983624739613, "combined": 6.345121792647134, "spread_buffer": -0.9966016375260387, "total_difference": -0.15487820735286562 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.5033983624739613, "combined": 6.345121792647134, "spread_buffer": -0.9966016375260387, "total_difference": -0.15487820735286562 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.2621950000000002, "combined": 6.237795, "spread_buffer": -1.2378049999999998, "total_difference": -0.2622049999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.2621950000000002, "combined": 6.237795, "spread_buffer": -1.2378049999999998, "total_difference": -0.2622049999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.2621950000000002, "combined": 6.237795, "spread_buffer": -1.2378049999999998, "total_difference": -0.2622049999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.2621950000000002, "combined": 6.237795, "spread_buffer": -1.2378049999999998, "total_difference": -0.2622049999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892474", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892474", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "27", "away_name": "Nashville Predators", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "14", "home_name": "Ottawa Senators", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.842581300813008, 3.358638211382114 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.842581300813008, 3.358638211382114 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.842581300813008, 3.358638211382114 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.0121951219512195, 3.2804878048780486 ], "current_rates": [ 3.0, 2.75 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.3902439024390243, 3.0 ], "current_rates": [ 3.0, 2.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.739725779510626, 3.321997853432148 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.739725779510626, 3.321997853432148 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.739725779510626, 3.321997853432148 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.969505, 3.30487 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.969505, 3.30487 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.969505, 3.30487 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.95121, "pa": 3.25609, "official_team_id": 18 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.35365, "pa": 2.9878, "official_team_id": 9 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.969505, 3.30487 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.969505, 3.30487 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.969505, 3.30487 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.95121, "pa": 3.25609, "official_team_id": 18 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.35365, "pa": 2.9878, "official_team_id": 9 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Ottawa Senators: William Eklund Out, Cameron Crotty Day-To-Day, Jake Sanderson Day-To-Day, Artem Zub Injured Reserve, Andre Burakovsky Injured Reserve | Nashville Predators: Mavrik Bourque Day-To-Day, Justus Annunen Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892474", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.982314+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892474", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.982314+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Ottawa Senators; Primary: Ottawa Senators; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Ottawa Senators; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Ottawa Senators. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 0.335365 to 0.582272. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.199040866595169 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892474", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.199040866595169e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 2.842581300813008, 3.358638211382114 ], "Primary": [ 2.739725779510626, 3.321997853432148 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 2.969505, 3.30487 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 2.969505, 3.30487 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020076, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/OTT/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Nashville Predators", "previousEventId": "401892459", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Montreal Canadiens", "previousVenue": { "id": "1831", "fullName": "Bell Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Montreal", "state": "QC", "country": "Canada" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Canadian Tire Centre; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Ottawa Senators", "previousEventId": "401891820", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Philadelphia Flyers", "previousVenue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Canadian Tire Centre; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Canadian Tire Centre; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/OTT/20262027", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892474" ], "tu": { "id": "401892474", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892474", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "27", "away_name": "Nashville Predators", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "14", "home_name": "Ottawa Senators", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 2.969505, 3.30487 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.95121, "pa": 3.25609, "official_team_id": 18 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.35365, "pa": 2.9878, "official_team_id": 9 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9695049999999998, 4.969505 ], "home": [ 1.3048700000000002, 5.30487 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators", "market": { "id": "401892474", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892474", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.101957+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.261002+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 160.0, "away_line_price": -192.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -130.0, "under_price": 110.0, "home_ml": -162.0, "away_ml": 136.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.5160569105691062, "combined": 6.201219512195122, "spread_buffer": -0.9839430894308938, "total_difference": 0.7012195121951219 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.5160569105691062, "combined": 6.201219512195122, "spread_buffer": -0.9839430894308938, "total_difference": 0.7012195121951219 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.5822720739215224, "combined": 6.061723632942774, "spread_buffer": -0.9177279260784776, "total_difference": 0.5617236329427744 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.5822720739215224, "combined": 6.061723632942774, "spread_buffer": -0.9177279260784776, "total_difference": 0.5617236329427744 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.33536500000000036, "combined": 6.274375, "spread_buffer": -1.1646349999999996, "total_difference": 0.774375 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.33536500000000036, "combined": 6.274375, "spread_buffer": -1.1646349999999996, "total_difference": 0.774375 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.33536500000000036, "combined": 6.274375, "spread_buffer": -1.1646349999999996, "total_difference": 0.774375 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.33536500000000036, "combined": 6.274375, "spread_buffer": -1.1646349999999996, "total_difference": 0.774375 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892475", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892475", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1837", "fullName": "PPG Paints Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Pittsburgh", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "9", "away_name": "Dallas Stars", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "16", "home_name": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1533333333333333, 3.2026422764227647 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1533333333333333, 3.2026422764227647 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1533333333333333, 3.2026422764227647 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.402439024390244, 2.7560975609756095 ], "current_rates": [ 2.5, 1.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.573170731707317, 3.268292682926829 ], "current_rates": [ 4.0, 3.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.266360220744144, 3.2320750395757165 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.266360220744144, 3.2320750395757165 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.266360220744144, 3.2320750395757165 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.2378, 3.121945 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.2378, 3.121945 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.2378, 3.121945 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.32926, "pa": 2.70731, "official_team_id": 25 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.53658, "pa": 3.14634, "official_team_id": 5 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.2378, 3.121945 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.2378, 3.121945 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.2378, 3.121945 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.32926, "pa": 2.70731, "official_team_id": 25 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.53658, "pa": 3.14634, "official_team_id": 5 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Pittsburgh Penguins: Andrei Kuzmenko Injured Reserve, Justin Brazeau Injured Reserve, Ryan Graves Injured Reserve | Dallas Stars: Joel Kiviranta Out, Matt Duchene Injured Reserve, Harrison Scott Injured Reserve, Luke Krys Injured Reserve, Cameron Hughes Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892475", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.954528+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.189763+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892475", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.954528+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.189763+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667; home: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Pittsburgh Penguins; Primary: Dallas Stars; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Dallas Stars; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Dallas Stars. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -0.115855 to 0.049309. Winner disagreement preserved. Independent arithmetic max error 1.0658141036401503 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892475", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.0658141036401503e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.1533333333333333, 3.2026422764227647 ], "Primary": [ 3.266360220744144, 3.2320750395757165 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 3.2378, 3.121945 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 3.2378, 3.121945 ] }, "winnerAgreement": false }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 0 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020077, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/PIT/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Dallas Stars", "previousEventId": "401892458", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Buffalo Sabres", "previousVenue": { "id": "1848", "fullName": "KeyBank Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Buffalo", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to PPG Paints Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "previousEventId": "401892467", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "previousVenue": { "id": "1828", "fullName": "Nationwide Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Columbus", "state": "OH", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 1, "offDays": 0, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to PPG Paints Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at PPG Paints Arena; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Model winner conflict increases uncertainty; do not suppress dissent. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/PIT/20262027", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892475" ], "tu": { "id": "401892475", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892475", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1837", "fullName": "PPG Paints Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Pittsburgh", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "9", "away_name": "Dallas Stars", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "16", "home_name": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 3.2378, 3.121945 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.32926, "pa": 2.70731, "official_team_id": 25 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.53658, "pa": 3.14634, "official_team_id": 5 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2378, 5.2378 ], "home": [ 1.1219450000000002, 5.121945 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins", "market": { "id": "401892475", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892475", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.138008+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.303524+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -192.0, "away_line_price": 160.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 100.0, "under_price": -120.0, "home_ml": 130.0, "away_ml": -155.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.049308943089431345, "combined": 6.355975609756098, "spread_buffer": 1.5493089430894313, "total_difference": -0.144024390243902 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.049308943089431345, "combined": 6.355975609756098, "spread_buffer": 1.5493089430894313, "total_difference": -0.144024390243902 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.03428518116842749, "combined": 6.4984352603198605, "spread_buffer": 1.4657148188315725, "total_difference": -0.001564739680139482 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.03428518116842749, "combined": 6.4984352603198605, "spread_buffer": 1.4657148188315725, "total_difference": -0.001564739680139482 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.11585499999999982, "combined": 6.359745, "spread_buffer": 1.3841450000000002, "total_difference": -0.1402549999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.11585499999999982, "combined": 6.359745, "spread_buffer": 1.3841450000000002, "total_difference": -0.1402549999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.11585499999999982, "combined": 6.359745, "spread_buffer": 1.3841450000000002, "total_difference": -0.1402549999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.11585499999999982, "combined": 6.359745, "spread_buffer": 1.3841450000000002, "total_difference": -0.1402549999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892476", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892476", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1847", "fullName": "United Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "7", "away_name": "Carolina Hurricanes", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "4", "home_name": "Chicago Blackhawks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.465365853658537, 2.7897560975609754 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.465365853658537, 2.7897560975609754 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.465365853658537, 2.7897560975609754 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.6097560975609757, 2.926829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 3.6, 2.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 2.597560975609756, 3.3536585365853657 ], "current_rates": [ 2.0, 4.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.657456277823465, 2.5719002247149967 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.657456277823465, 2.5719002247149967 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.657456277823465, 2.5719002247149967 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 2.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 2.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.54878, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 12 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.29268, "official_team_id": 16 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 2.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 2.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.54878, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 12 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.29268, "official_team_id": 16 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 2.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 2.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Chicago Blackhawks: Frank Nazar Suspension, Teuvo Teravainen Day-To-Day, Andrew Mangiapane Injured Reserve, Connor Bedard Injured Reserve | Carolina Hurricanes: Alexander Nikishin Day-To-Day, Seth Jarvis Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892476", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.956033+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.155806+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892476", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.956033+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.155806+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2; home: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Carolina Hurricanes; Primary: Carolina Hurricanes; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Carolina Hurricanes; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Carolina Hurricanes. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -1.085556 to -0.67561. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.021405182655144 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892476", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.021405182655144e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.465365853658537, 2.7897560975609754 ], "Primary": [ 3.657456277823465, 2.5719002247149967 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020078, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/CHI/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Carolina Hurricanes", "previousEventId": "401892461", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Vancouver Canucks", "previousVenue": { "id": "999", "fullName": "Lenovo Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Raleigh", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to United Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Chicago Blackhawks", "previousEventId": "401892462", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "previousOpponent": "New York Islanders", "previousVenue": { "id": "7226", "fullName": "UBS Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Elmont", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to United Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at United Center; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/CHI/20262027", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892476" ], "tu": { "id": "401892476", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892476", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1847", "fullName": "United Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "7", "away_name": "Carolina Hurricanes", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "4", "home_name": "Chicago Blackhawks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.54878, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 12 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.29268, "official_team_id": 16 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4207299999999998, 5.42073 ], "home": [ 0.7195049999999998, 4.719505 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Carolina Hurricanes at Chicago Blackhawks", "market": { "id": "401892476", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892476", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.148835+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.331442+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -125.0, "away_line_price": 105.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 114.0, "under_price": -135.0, "home_ml": 200.0, "away_ml": -245.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.6756097560975616, "combined": 6.255121951219513, "spread_buffer": 0.8243902439024384, "total_difference": -0.24487804878048713 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.6756097560975616, "combined": 6.255121951219513, "spread_buffer": 0.8243902439024384, "total_difference": -0.24487804878048713 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -1.0855560531084683, "combined": 6.229356502538462, "spread_buffer": 0.41444394689153174, "total_difference": -0.2706434974615384 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -1.0855560531084683, "combined": 6.229356502538462, "spread_buffer": 0.41444394689153174, "total_difference": -0.2706434974615384 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.701225, "combined": 6.140235, "spread_buffer": 0.798775, "total_difference": -0.35976500000000033 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.701225, "combined": 6.140235, "spread_buffer": 0.798775, "total_difference": -0.35976500000000033 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.701225, "combined": 6.140235, "spread_buffer": 0.798775, "total_difference": -0.35976500000000033 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.701225, "combined": 6.140235, "spread_buffer": 0.798775, "total_difference": -0.35976500000000033 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892477", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892477", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1839", "fullName": "Enterprise Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Louis", "state": "MO", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "29", "away_name": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "19", "home_name": "St. Louis Blues", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.0406636620714034, 2.998396076352068 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0406636620714034, 2.998396076352068 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0406636620714034, 2.998396076352068 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.13043478260869565, "prior_rates": [ 3.0853658536585367, 3.0853658536585367 ], "current_rates": [ 3.3333333333333335, 3.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 2.817073170731707, 3.1463414634146343 ], "current_rates": [ 2.25, 3.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.9777440275954126, 3.0246444065471327 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.9777440275954126, 3.0246444065471327 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.9777440275954126, 3.0246444065471327 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 29 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.80487, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 19 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 29 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.80487, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 19 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "St. Louis Blues: Dillon Dube Out, Alexey Toropchenko Injured Reserve, Tyler Tucker Injured Reserve, Felix Trudeau Injured Reserve, Logan Mailloux Injured Reserve | Columbus Blue Jackets: no listed injuries. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892477", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.970281+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.185826+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892477", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.970281+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.185826+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 3 current regular; current weight 0.1304; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Columbus Blue Jackets; Primary: St. Louis Blues; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Columbus Blue Jackets; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Columbus Blue Jackets. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -0.11586 to 0.0469. Winner disagreement preserved. Independent arithmetic max error 1.1102230246251565 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892477", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.1102230246251565e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.0406636620714034, 2.998396076352068 ], "Primary": [ 2.9777440275954126, 3.0246444065471327 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ] }, "winnerAgreement": false }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 0 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020079, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/STL/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "previousEventId": "401892467", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "previousVenue": { "id": "1828", "fullName": "Nationwide Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Columbus", "state": "OH", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 1, "offDays": 0, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Enterprise Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "St. Louis Blues", "previousEventId": "401891825", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T00:00Z", "previousOpponent": "San Jose Sharks", "previousVenue": { "id": "1839", "fullName": "Enterprise Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Louis", "state": "MO", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Enterprise Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Enterprise Center; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Model winner conflict increases uncertainty; do not suppress dissent. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/STL/20262027", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892477" ], "tu": { "id": "401892477", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892477", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1839", "fullName": "Enterprise Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Louis", "state": "MO", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "29", "away_name": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "19", "home_name": "St. Louis Blues", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 29 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.80487, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 19 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0487799999999998, 5.04878 ], "home": [ 0.9329200000000002, 4.93292 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Columbus Blue Jackets at St. Louis Blues", "market": { "id": "401892477", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892477", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.164353+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.360412+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 195.0, "away_line_price": -238.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -130.0, "under_price": 110.0, "home_ml": -130.0, "away_ml": 110.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.04226758571933553, "combined": 6.039059738423472, "spread_buffer": -1.5422675857193355, "total_difference": 0.5390597384234717 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.04226758571933553, "combined": 6.039059738423472, "spread_buffer": -1.5422675857193355, "total_difference": 0.5390597384234717 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.04690037895172017, "combined": 6.002388434142546, "spread_buffer": -1.4530996210482798, "total_difference": 0.5023884341425457 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.04690037895172017, "combined": 6.002388434142546, "spread_buffer": -1.4530996210482798, "total_difference": 0.5023884341425457 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.11585999999999963, "combined": 5.9817, "spread_buffer": -1.6158599999999996, "total_difference": 0.4817 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.11585999999999963, "combined": 5.9817, "spread_buffer": -1.6158599999999996, "total_difference": 0.4817 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.11585999999999963, "combined": 5.9817, "spread_buffer": -1.6158599999999996, "total_difference": 0.4817 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.11585999999999963, "combined": 5.9817, "spread_buffer": -1.6158599999999996, "total_difference": 0.4817 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892478", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892478", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "892", "fullName": "Ball Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Denver", "state": "CO", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "21", "away_name": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "17", "home_name": "Colorado Avalanche", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.674817073170732, 3.872256097560976 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.674817073170732, 3.872256097560976 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.674817073170732, 3.872256097560976 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.0853658536585367, 3.6463414634146343 ], "current_rates": [ 2.8, 3.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.682926829268293, 2.475609756097561 ], "current_rates": [ 5.75, 2.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 2.5, 4.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 2.5, 4.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.6899241738444166, 3.886003489602974 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.6899241738444166, 3.886003489602974 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.6899241738444166, 3.886003489602974 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 2.5, 4.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 2.5, 4.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.07317, "pa": 3.59756, "official_team_id": 10 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.63414, "pa": 2.40243, "official_team_id": 21 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.07317, "pa": 3.59756, "official_team_id": 10 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.63414, "pa": 2.40243, "official_team_id": 21 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Colorado Avalanche: Logan O'Connor Injured Reserve, Trent Miner Injured Reserve, Georgii Merkulov Injured Reserve | Toronto Maple Leafs: John Tavares Out, Oliver Ekman-Larsson Day-To-Day, Dakota Joshua Injured Reserve, Max Domi Injured Reserve, Cade Webber Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892478", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.982314+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.195071+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892478", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.982314+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.195071+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Colorado Avalanche; Primary: Colorado Avalanche; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Colorado Avalanche; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Colorado Avalanche. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 0.87805 to 1.197439. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.021405182655144 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892478", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.021405182655144e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 2.674817073170732, 3.872256097560976 ], "Primary": [ 2.6899241738444166, 3.886003489602974 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 1 whole off days. Official status article mentions 9 pm ET, but official structured schedule and ESPN both 7 pm ET; use 7 pm ET while retaining source conflict.", "official": { "id": 2026020080, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/TOR/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "previousEventId": "401892464", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T02:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Vegas Golden Knights", "previousVenue": { "id": "5060", "fullName": "T-Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Ball Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Colorado Avalanche", "previousEventId": "401892463", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T01:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Calgary Flames", "previousVenue": { "id": "1843", "fullName": "Scotiabank Saddledome", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Calgary", "state": "AB", "country": "Canada" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Ball Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": " Official status article mentions9pmET, but official structured schedule and ESPN both7pmET; use7pmET while retaining source conflict." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Ball Arena; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/TOR/20262027", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892478" ], "tu": { "id": "401892478", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892478", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "892", "fullName": "Ball Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Denver", "state": "CO", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "21", "away_name": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "17", "home_name": "Colorado Avalanche", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.07317, "pa": 3.59756, "official_team_id": 10 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.63414, "pa": 2.40243, "official_team_id": 21 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.7378, 4.7378 ], "home": [ 1.61585, 5.61585 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche", "market": { "id": "401892478", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892478", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.254578+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.461220+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 120.0, "away_line_price": -142.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -205.0, "away_ml": 170.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.1974390243902437, "combined": 6.547073170731708, "spread_buffer": -0.30256097560975626, "total_difference": 0.047073170731708025 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.1974390243902437, "combined": 6.547073170731708, "spread_buffer": -0.30256097560975626, "total_difference": 0.047073170731708025 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.1960793157585572, "combined": 6.57592766344739, "spread_buffer": -0.3039206842414428, "total_difference": 0.07592766344739044 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.1960793157585572, "combined": 6.57592766344739, "spread_buffer": -0.3039206842414428, "total_difference": 0.07592766344739044 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.87805, "combined": 6.35365, "spread_buffer": -0.62195, "total_difference": -0.14634999999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.87805, "combined": 6.35365, "spread_buffer": -0.62195, "total_difference": -0.14634999999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.87805, "combined": 6.35365, "spread_buffer": -0.62195, "total_difference": -0.14634999999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.87805, "combined": 6.35365, "spread_buffer": -0.62195, "total_difference": -0.14634999999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401898396", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "2183", "fullName": "Gainbridge Fieldhouse", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Indianapolis", "state": "IN" } }, "away": "1", "away_name": "Atlanta Hawks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "11", "home_name": "Indiana Pacers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 117.9390243902439, 115.73780487804878 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.9390243902439, 115.73780487804878 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.9390243902439, 115.73780487804878 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 118.46341463414635, 116.04878048780488 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 112.42682926829268, 120.41463414634147 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 118.0, 115.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 118.0, 115.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 117.97422345984468, 115.98645878350496 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.97422345984468, 115.98645878350496 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.97422345984468, 115.98645878350496 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 118.0, 116.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 118.0, 116.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "conditional_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 118.46342, "pa": 116.04878 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.42683, "pa": 120.414635 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 119.5, 114.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 119.5, 114.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "conditional_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 118.46342, "pa": 116.04878 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.42683, "pa": 120.414635 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 119.5, 114.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 119.5, 114.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Indiana Pacers: Larry Nance Jr. Day-To-Day, T.J. McConnell Day-To-Day, Johnny Furphy Out | Atlanta Hawks: Keshon Gilbert Day-To-Day, Luguentz Dort Day-To-Day, Jalen Johnson Day-To-Day, Henri Veesaar Out, Mouhamed Gueye Day-To-Day. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Preseason DTD/rest decisions may materially reshape minutes; normalized 240 minute examples are sensitivity only.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.185826+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.329231+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.185826+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.329231+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0; home: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0. Primary training games=2796. Classic/current preseason excludes exhibitions from regular baseline; Primary explicitly models preseason with 0.35 training weight. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NBA.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Atlanta Hawks; Primary: Atlanta Hawks; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Atlanta Hawks; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Atlanta Hawks. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -5.201223 to -1.987765. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 7.105427357601002 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401898396", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 7.105427357601002e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 117.9390243902439, 115.73780487804878 ], "Primary": [ 117.97422345984468, 115.98645878350496 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "2026-27 preseason verified NBA.com; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 2 whole off days.", "official": { "id": "0012600006", "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10", "stage": "Preseason", "isNeutral": false }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "previousEventId": "401898394", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T00:00Z", "previousOpponent": "San Antonio Spurs", "previousVenue": { "id": "780", "fullName": "Frost Bank Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "San Antonio", "state": "TX" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Gainbridge Fieldhouse; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Indiana Pacers", "previousEventId": "401914123", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-07T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "previousVenue": { "id": "432", "fullName": "Hilton Coliseum", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ames", "state": "IA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 3, "offDays": 2, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Gainbridge Fieldhouse; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Gainbridge Fieldhouse; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10" ], "tu": { "id": "401898396", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "2183", "fullName": "Gainbridge Fieldhouse", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Indianapolis", "state": "IN" } }, "away": "1", "away_name": "Atlanta Hawks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "11", "home_name": "Indiana Pacers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 118.46342, "pa": 116.04878 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.42683, "pa": 120.414635 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 99.43902750000001, 139.4390275 ], "home": [ 94.237805, 134.23780499999998 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers", "market": { "id": "401898396", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.266528+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.431514+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": -102.0, "away_line_price": -118.0, "total": 233.5, "under_line": 233.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -112.0, "away_ml": -108.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 233.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -2.2012195121951237, "combined": 233.6768292682927, "spread_buffer": -3.7012195121951237, "total_difference": 0.17682926829269263 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -2.2012195121951237, "combined": 233.6768292682927, "spread_buffer": -3.7012195121951237, "total_difference": 0.17682926829269263 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -1.9877646763397223, "combined": 233.96068224334965, "spread_buffer": -3.4877646763397223, "total_difference": 0.4606822433496518 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -1.9877646763397223, "combined": 233.96068224334965, "spread_buffer": -3.4877646763397223, "total_difference": 0.4606822433496518 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -5.201222500000014, "combined": 233.6768325, "spread_buffer": -6.701222500000014, "total_difference": 0.17683249999998907 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -5.201222500000014, "combined": 233.6768325, "spread_buffer": -6.701222500000014, "total_difference": 0.17683249999998907 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -5.201222500000014, "combined": 233.6768325, "spread_buffer": -6.701222500000014, "total_difference": 0.17683249999998907 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -5.201222500000014, "combined": 233.6768325, "spread_buffer": -6.701222500000014, "total_difference": 0.17683249999998907 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401906510", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401906510", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1823", "fullName": "Capital One Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC" } }, "away": "8", "away_name": "Detroit Pistons", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "27", "home_name": "Washington Wizards", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 119.82317073170731, 112.7560975609756 ], "adjusted_score": [ 119.82317073170731, 112.7560975609756 ], "conditional_score": [ 119.82317073170731, 112.7560975609756 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 117.76829268292683, 109.60975609756098 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 112.90243902439025, 124.8780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 120.0, 113.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 120.0, 113.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 119.66393220407303, 109.40049909122376 ], "adjusted_score": [ 119.66393220407303, 109.40049909122376 ], "conditional_score": [ 119.66393220407303, 109.40049909122376 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 119.5, 109.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 119.5, 109.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "conditional_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 117.768295, "pa": 109.60976 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.902435, "pa": 124.87805 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 121.5, 111.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 121.5, 111.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "conditional_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 117.768295, "pa": 109.60976 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.902435, "pa": 124.87805 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 121.5, 111.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 121.5, 111.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Washington Wizards: Khris Middleton Day-To-Day, Alex Sarr Day-To-Day, Tristan Vukcevic Out, Jamir Watkins Out | Detroit Pistons: Jalen Duren Day-To-Day. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Preseason DTD/rest decisions may materially reshape minutes; normalized 240 minute examples are sensitivity only.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401906510", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.189763+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.386035+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401906510", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.189763+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.386035+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0; home: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0. Primary training games=2796. Classic/current preseason excludes exhibitions from regular baseline; Primary explicitly models preseason with 0.35 training weight. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NBA.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Detroit Pistons; Primary: Detroit Pistons; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Detroit Pistons; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Detroit Pistons. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -10.263433 to -7.067073. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 5.684341886080802 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401906510", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 5.684341886080802e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 119.82317073170731, 112.7560975609756 ], "Primary": [ 119.66393220407303, 109.40049909122376 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "2026-27 preseason verified NBA.com; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 4 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": "0012600038", "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10", "stage": "Preseason", "isNeutral": false }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Detroit Pistons", "previousEventId": "401908947", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Phoenix Suns", "previousVenue": { "id": "5404", "fullName": "Little Caesars Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Detroit", "state": "MI" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 5, "offDays": 4, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Capital One Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Washington Wizards", "previousEventId": "401906508", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "previousOpponent": "New York Knicks", "previousVenue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Capital One Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Capital One Arena; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401906510", "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10" ], "tu": { "id": "401906510", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401906510", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1823", "fullName": "Capital One Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC" } }, "away": "8", "away_name": "Detroit Pistons", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "27", "home_name": "Washington Wizards", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 117.768295, "pa": 109.60976 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.902435, "pa": 124.87805 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 101.3231725, 141.3231725 ], "home": [ 91.2560975, 131.2560975 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards", "market": { "id": "401906510", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401906510", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.275858+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.405125+00:00", "home_line": 6.5, "away_line": -6.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 223.5, "under_line": 223.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 180.0, "away_ml": -218.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 6.5, "average_total": 223.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -7.067073170731703, "combined": 232.5792682926829, "spread_buffer": -0.5670731707317032, "total_difference": 9.079268292682912 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -7.067073170731703, "combined": 232.5792682926829, "spread_buffer": -0.5670731707317032, "total_difference": 9.079268292682912 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -10.26343311284927, "combined": 229.0644312952968, "spread_buffer": -3.7634331128492704, "total_difference": 5.564431295296799 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -10.26343311284927, "combined": 229.0644312952968, "spread_buffer": -3.7634331128492704, "total_difference": 5.564431295296799 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -10.067075000000003, "combined": 232.57927, "spread_buffer": -3.5670750000000027, "total_difference": 9.079270000000008 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -10.067075000000003, "combined": 232.57927, "spread_buffer": -3.5670750000000027, "total_difference": 9.079270000000008 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -10.067075000000003, "combined": 232.57927, "spread_buffer": -3.5670750000000027, "total_difference": 9.079270000000008 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -10.067075000000003, "combined": 232.57927, "spread_buffer": -3.5670750000000027, "total_difference": 9.079270000000008 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401856712", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401856712", "date": "2026-10-10T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3657", "fullName": "Bryant-Denny Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Tuscaloosa", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "61", "away_name": "Georgia Bulldogs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "333", "home_name": "Alabama Crimson Tide", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "61", "side": "away", "player": "Chauncey Bowens", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.923076923076923, 15.923076923076923 ], "current_rates": [ 51.4, 13.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.23076923076923, 17.384615384615383 ], "current_rates": [ 49.6, 20.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 29.0, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "61", "side": "away", "player": "Chauncey Bowens", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 32.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 32.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401856712", "matchup": "Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Georgia Bulldogs", "names": [ "Chauncey Bowens" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Bowens leads RB carries (35) and has six rushing TD plus 10 catches/132 yards. Clear material committee/red-zone role. Current baseline reflects some absence exposure; no invented efficiency conversion. Blackshear 5 catches and Canion 3 are secondary role uncertainties, not headcount additions. | Alabama Crimson Tide: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 31.512307692307694, 31.864615384615384 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.653846153846153, 23.576923076923077 ], "currentMatchup": [ 36.1, 31.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.1353846153846152, 0.3646153846153848 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 63, "off_points_proxy": 236, "def_points_proxy": 76, "off_plays": 366, "off_yards": 2686, "def_plays": 425, "def_yards": 1917, "early_plays": 285, "early_yards": 1955, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856658", "401856673", "401856686", "401856700", "401856705" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.806451612903226, "def_ppd": 1.2063492063492063, "off_ypp": 7.33879781420765, "def_ypp": 4.510588235294118, "early_down_ypp": 6.859649122807017 }, "home": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 220, "def_points_proxy": 96, "off_plays": 416, "off_yards": 2870, "def_plays": 424, "def_yards": 2031, "early_plays": 317, "early_yards": 1927, "explosive_plays": 47, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856634", "401856674", "401856685", "401856696", "401856707" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.793103448275862, "def_ppd": 1.5483870967741935, "off_ypp": 6.899038461538462, "def_ypp": 4.790094339622642, "early_down_ypp": 6.078864353312303 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog. Low around 61. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Saturday Showers, mainly before 4pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog before noon. High near 70. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday Night A 30 percent chance of showers before 1am. Patchy fog before 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tuscaloosa&state=AL&site=BMX&textField1=33.2377&textField2=-87.541&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856712", "matchup": "Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Georgia Bulldogs", "names": [ "Chauncey Bowens" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5079506/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5079508/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5079714/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5141394/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5141629/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.923076923076923, "pa": 15.923076923076923, "margin": 16.0, "event_ids": [ "401752669", "401752685", "401752705", "401752718", "401752728", "401752731", "401752742", "401752755", "401752762", "401752766", "401752776", "401752786", "401777351" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 51.4, "pa": 13.4, "margin": 38.0, "event_ids": [ "401856658", "401856673", "401856686", "401856700", "401856705" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.23076923076923, "pa": 17.384615384615383, "margin": 13.846153846153847, "event_ids": [ "401752665", "401752681", "401752696", "401752718", "401752726", "401752734", "401752738", "401752751", "401752759", "401752765", "401752773", "401752784", "401777351" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 49.6, "pa": 20.8, "margin": 28.8, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401856674", "401856685", "401856696", "401856707" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.653846153846153, 23.576923076923077 ], "current_matchup": [ 36.1, 31.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.135384615384615, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 13.512307692307694, 49.512307692307694 ], "home": [ 9.903076923076924, 45.903076923076924 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401856712", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856712", "teamId": "61", "team": "Georgia Bulldogs", "side": "away", "opponent": "Alabama Crimson Tide", "conferenceReportKey": "Georgia", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4685578", "name": "Gunner Stockton", "position": "QB", "workload": "77/102, 1049 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/4685578/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079679", "name": "Ryan Puglisi", "position": "QB", "workload": "17/28, 197 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/5079679/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5084047", "name": "Nate Frazier", "position": "RB", "workload": "26 CAR, 211 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/5084047/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079561", "name": "Dwight Phillips Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 160 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/5079561/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5172095", "name": "Bo Walker", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 134 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/5172095/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5263766", "name": "Craig Dandridge", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 177 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/5263766/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141671", "name": "Talyn Taylor", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 176 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/5141671/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5105269", "name": "Sacovie White-Helton", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 135 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/5105269/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4870874", "name": "Lawson Luckie", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/4870874/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141756", "name": "Elyiss Williams", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 71 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/5141756/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Thomas Blackshear", "id": "5149473", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "5 REC, 48 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Chauncey Bowens", "id": "5079335", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "35 CAR, 124 YDS, 6 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "10 REC, 132 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Isiah Canion", "id": "5132253", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 28 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Bowens leads RB carries (35) and has six rushing TD plus 10 catches/132 yards. Clear material committee/red-zone role. Current baseline reflects some absence exposure; no invented efficiency conversion. Blackshear 5 catches and Canion 3 are secondary role uncertainties, not headcount additions.", "confirmed": [ "Chauncey Bowens" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Chauncey Bowens", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "Primary": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "TightenUpON": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Bowens leads RB carries (35) and has six rushing TD plus 10 catches/132 yards. Clear material committee/red-zone role. Current baseline reflects some absence exposure; no invented efficiency conversion. Blackshear 5 catches and Canion 3 are secondary role uncertainties, not headcount additions.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5079335", "name": "Chauncey Bowens", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/556", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 16, "rushingYards": 58, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.625, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079335/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 98, "rushingYards": 516, "rushingTD": 6, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.264999866485596, "receptions": 14, "receivingYards": 82, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079335/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 35, "rushingYards": 124, "rushingTD": 6, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.5, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 132, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079335/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "61" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5084047", "name": "Nate Frazier", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/561", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 129, "rushingYards": 634, "rushingTD": 8, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.914999961853027, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 68, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5084047/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 13, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 158, "rushingYards": 861, "rushingTD": 6, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.448999881744385, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 74, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5084047/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 26, "rushingYards": 211, "rushingTD": 5, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 8.100000381469727, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 5, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5084047/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "61" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079561", "name": "Dwight Phillips Jr.", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/562", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 6, "rushingYards": 33, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.5, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 24, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079561/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 35, "rushingYards": 210, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": -6, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079561/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 20, "rushingYards": 160, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 8, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 86, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079561/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "61" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5172095", "name": "Bo Walker", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/563", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "61", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5172095/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 22, "rushingYards": 100, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.545000076293945, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 2, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5172095/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 20, "rushingYards": 134, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.699999809265137, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 6, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5172095/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "61" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Bo Walker", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/61/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Blackshear five and Canion three catches versus main WRs9/12/10 and Luckie six; no established main role beyond separately reviewed Bowens rushing contribution.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856712", "teamId": "333", "team": "Alabama Crimson Tide", "side": "home", "opponent": "Georgia Bulldogs", "conferenceReportKey": "Alabama", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5141629", "name": "Keelon Russell", "position": "QB", "workload": "94/132, 1414 YDS, 11 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5141629/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079508", "name": "Austin Mack", "position": "QB", "workload": "3/4, 23 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5079508/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5079506", "name": "Daniel Hill", "position": "RB", "workload": "51 CAR, 247 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5079506/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5327659", "name": "Trae'shawn Brown", "position": "RB", "workload": "42 CAR, 211 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5327659/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5264688", "name": "EJ Crowell", "position": "RB", "workload": "26 CAR, 204 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5264688/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5141711", "name": "Ryan Coleman-Williams", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 376 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5141711/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141394", "name": "Lotzeir Brooks", "position": "WR", "workload": "21 REC, 352 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5141394/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079714", "name": "Rico Scott", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 196 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5079714/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5164343", "name": "Marshall Pritchett", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 148 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5164343/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5142591", "name": "Kaleb Edwards", "position": "TE", "workload": "9 REC, 131 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5142591/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Josh Ford", "id": "5124338", "position": "TE", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 3 YDS, 1 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Alabama Crimson Tide: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/333/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Ford one catch compared with Pritchett7/Edwards9; not primary receiving-TE role.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 31.512307692307694, 31.864615384615384 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.653846153846153, 23.576923076923077 ], "currentMatchup": [ 36.1, 31.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.1353846153846152, 0.3646153846153848 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide", "market": { "id": "401856712", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856712", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.309048+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.468764+00:00", "home_line": -2.5, "away_line": 2.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -125.0, "away_ml": 105.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -2.5, "average_total": 51.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -1.178321678321673, "combined": 57.03496503496503, "spread_buffer": -3.678321678321673, "total_difference": 5.534965034965033 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.821678321678327, "combined": 54.03496503496503, "spread_buffer": -0.678321678321673, "total_difference": 2.5349650349650332 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 7.922912645644111, "combined": 55.974915755339005, "spread_buffer": 5.422912645644111, "total_difference": 4.474915755339005 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 10.92291264564411, "combined": 52.974915755339005, "spread_buffer": 8.42291264564411, "total_difference": 1.4749157553390049 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -3.60923076923077, "combined": 59.41538461538462, "spread_buffer": -6.10923076923077, "total_difference": 7.9153846153846175 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.6092307692307699, "combined": 56.41538461538462, "spread_buffer": -3.10923076923077, "total_difference": 4.9153846153846175 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401856712", "matchup": "Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Georgia Bulldogs", "line": 2.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856712", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.309048+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.468764+00:00", "home_line": -2.5, "away_line": 2.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -125.0, "away_ml": 105.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 6.10923076923077, "production_adjusted": 3.10923076923077, "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.85230769230769, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "directional_buffer": 0.678321678321673, "scenario_minimum": 0.678321678321673 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "directional_buffer": -8.42291264564411, "scenario_minimum": -8.42291264564411 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "directional_buffer": 3.10923076923077, "scenario_minimum": 3.10923076923077 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "directional_buffer": 3.10923076923077, "scenario_minimum": 3.10923076923077 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.512307692307694, 31.864615384615384 ], "directional_buffer": -0.85230769230769, "stressed_buffer": -3.85230769230769 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "directional_buffer": 3.10923076923077, "stressed_buffer": 0.10923076923076991 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "directional_buffer": 6.10923076923077, "stressed_buffer": 3.10923076923077 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.512307692307694, 31.864615384615384 ], "directional_buffer": -0.85230769230769, "stressed_buffer": -3.85230769230769 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 31.512307692307694, 31.864615384615384 ], "directional_buffer": 2.14769230769231, "stressed_buffer": -0.85230769230769 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 31.512307692307694, 31.864615384615384 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.653846153846153, 23.576923076923077 ], "currentMatchup": [ 36.1, 31.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.1353846153846152, 0.3646153846153848 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Georgia Bulldogs", "names": [ "Chauncey Bowens" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tuscaloosa&state=AL&site=BMX&textField1=33.2377&textField2=-87.541&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:30:00-05:00", "window": "A 30 percent chance of showers before 1am. Patchy fog before 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401856712", "matchup": "Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 51.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856712", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.309048+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.468764+00:00", "home_line": -2.5, "away_line": 2.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -125.0, "away_ml": 105.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 7.9153846153846175, "production_adjusted": 4.9153846153846175, "minimum_all_scenarios": 4.9153846153846175, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "directional_buffer": 2.5349650349650332, "scenario_minimum": 2.5349650349650332 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "directional_buffer": 1.4749157553390049, "scenario_minimum": 1.4749157553390049 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "directional_buffer": 4.9153846153846175, "scenario_minimum": 4.9153846153846175 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "directional_buffer": 4.9153846153846175, "scenario_minimum": 4.9153846153846175 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "directional_buffer": 4.9153846153846175, "stressed_buffer": 1.9153846153846175 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "directional_buffer": 4.9153846153846175, "stressed_buffer": 1.9153846153846175 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "directional_buffer": 7.9153846153846175, "stressed_buffer": 4.9153846153846175 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.512307692307694, 31.864615384615384 ], "directional_buffer": 8.876923076923077, "stressed_buffer": 5.876923076923077 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 31.512307692307694, 31.864615384615384 ], "directional_buffer": 11.876923076923077, "stressed_buffer": 8.876923076923077 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 31.512307692307694, 31.864615384615384 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.653846153846153, 23.576923076923077 ], "currentMatchup": [ 36.1, 31.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.1353846153846152, 0.3646153846153848 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Georgia Bulldogs", "names": [ "Chauncey Bowens" ], "severity": "LOW", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tuscaloosa&state=AL&site=BMX&textField1=33.2377&textField2=-87.541&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:30:00-05:00", "window": "A 30 percent chance of showers before 1am. Patchy fog before 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Steve Angeli", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Amari Odom", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.166666666666668, "pa": 34.916666666666664, "margin": -14.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752676", "401754618", "401754532", "401754537", "401754545", "401754555", "401754568", "401754571", "401754575", "401754587", "401754604", "401754608" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 34.75, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 11.75, "event_ids": [ "401858208", "401858216", "401858225", "401858252" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 32.15384615384615, "pa": 20.53846153846154, "margin": 11.615384615384613, "event_ids": [ "401754616", "401754524", "401754619", "401754539", "401754543", "401754554", "401752951", "401754573", "401754576", "401754589", "401754593", "401754613", "401777328" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.8, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 15.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858202", "401858220", "401856802", "401858239", "401858253" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.352564102564102, 33.53525641025641 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.375, 28.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.041538461538461, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 14.5, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Steve Angeli", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Amari Odom", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.166666666666668, "pa": 34.916666666666664, "margin": -14.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752676", "401754618", "401754532", "401754537", "401754545", "401754555", "401754568", "401754571", "401754575", "401754587", "401754604", "401754608" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 34.75, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 11.75, "event_ids": [ "401858208", "401858216", "401858225", "401858252" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 32.15384615384615, "pa": 20.53846153846154, "margin": 11.615384615384613, "event_ids": [ "401754616", "401754524", "401754619", "401754539", "401754543", "401754554", "401752951", "401754573", "401754576", "401754589", "401754593", "401754613", "401777328" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.8, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 15.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858202", "401858220", "401856802", "401858239", "401858253" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.352564102564102, 33.53525641025641 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.375, 28.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.041538461538461, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 14.5, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Amari Odom" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401858258", "matchup": "Syracuse Orange at Virginia Cavaliers", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "names": [ "Amari Odom" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "names": [ "Steve Angeli", "Shavane Anderson Jr." ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "replacement_identity", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Angeli OUT, Odom DOUBTFUL, actual third-quarterback replacement/workload unresolved; same-role -3 does not bound an unverified reserve." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Angeli OUT; replacement Odom DOUBTFUL after 335 yards/five TD versus UConn. QB branch Angeli\u2192Odom or Angeli\u2192next reserve has one -3; no stacking two unavailable QBs occupying one role. Anderson 30 carries/146 yards is material RB, separate -3 rushing pathway. Joint -6 QB+RB; third-QB efficiency is unestimated and final actual reserve selection still unresolved. | Virginia Cavaliers: current report contains 3 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 23.33346153846154, 35.509166666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.352564102564102, 33.53525641025641 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.375, 28.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.041538461538461, 4.541538461538461 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 50, "def_drives": 49, "off_points_proxy": 134, "def_points_proxy": 88, "off_plays": 395, "off_yards": 2393, "def_plays": 334, "def_yards": 1964, "early_plays": 294, "early_yards": 1628, "explosive_plays": 40, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858208", "401858216", "401858225", "401858252" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.68, "def_ppd": 1.7959183673469388, "off_ypp": 6.058227848101266, "def_ypp": 5.880239520958084, "early_down_ypp": 5.537414965986395 }, "home": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 163, "def_points_proxy": 89, "off_plays": 457, "off_yards": 2381, "def_plays": 406, "def_yards": 1889, "early_plays": 313, "early_yards": 1643, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856802", "401858202", "401858220", "401858239", "401858253" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.629032258064516, "def_ppd": 1.435483870967742, "off_ypp": 5.210065645514224, "def_ypp": 4.652709359605911, "early_down_ypp": 5.2492012779552715 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Cloudy, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Tonight Showers, mainly after 10pm. Low around 58. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charlottesville&state=VA&site=LWX&textField1=38.0374&textField2=-78.4857&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Amari Odom" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858258", "matchup": "Syracuse Orange at Virginia Cavaliers", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "names": [ "Amari Odom" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "names": [ "Steve Angeli", "Shavane Anderson Jr." ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "replacement_identity", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Angeli OUT, Odom DOUBTFUL, actual third-quarterback replacement/workload unresolved; same-role -3 does not bound an unverified reserve." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/4685694/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/4691315/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/4910239/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/5004520/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/5153782/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401858258", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858258", "teamId": "183", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "side": "away", "opponent": "Virginia Cavaliers", "conferenceReportKey": "Syracuse", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4685694", "name": "Steve Angeli", "position": "QB", "workload": "57/104, 731 YDS, 4 TD, 5 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/4685694/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5153782", "name": "Amari Odom", "position": "QB", "workload": "37/48, 398 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/5153782/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5261613", "name": "Tylik Hill", "position": "RB", "workload": "46 CAR, 287 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/5261613/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5289321", "name": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "30 CAR, 146 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/5289321/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5154420", "name": "Ahmad Miller", "position": "RB", "workload": "24 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/5154420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4691315", "name": "Umari Hatcher", "position": "WR", "workload": "29 REC, 434 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/4691315/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4910239", "name": "Justus Ross-Simmons", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 161 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/4910239/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5212990", "name": "Darius Johnson", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 109 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/5212990/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5210515", "name": "Daunte Bacheyie", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 120 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/5210515/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5004520", "name": "David Clement", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/5004520/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Darien Williams", "id": "5206061", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "4 REC, 25 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Steve Angeli", "id": "4685694", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "57/104, 731 YDS, 4 TD, 5 INT" } ] }, { "name": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "id": "5289321", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "30 CAR, 146 YDS, 3 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 15 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Terrell Wilfong", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Amari Odom", "id": "5153782", "position": "QB", "status": "doubtful", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "37/48, 398 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "9 CAR, 2 YDS, 1 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Angeli OUT; replacement Odom DOUBTFUL after 335 yards/five TD versus UConn. QB branch Angeli\u2192Odom or Angeli\u2192next reserve has one -3; no stacking two unavailable QBs occupying one role. Anderson 30 carries/146 yards is material RB, separate -3 rushing pathway. Joint -6 QB+RB; third-QB efficiency is unestimated and final actual reserve selection still unresolved.", "confirmed": [ "Steve Angeli", "Shavane Anderson Jr." ], "conditional": [ "Amari Odom" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Steve Angeli", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "Primary": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "TightenUpON": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] } }, { "name": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "Primary": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "TightenUpON": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] } }, { "name": "Amari Odom", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "Primary": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "TightenUpON": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -6, "conditionalDeduction": -6, "overlapTreatment": "Angeli OUT; replacement Odom DOUBTFUL after 335 yards/five TD versus UConn. QB branch Angeli\u2192Odom or Angeli\u2192next reserve has one -3; no stacking two unavailable QBs occupying one role. Anderson 30 carries/146 yards is material RB, separate -3 rushing pathway. Joint -6 QB+RB; third-QB efficiency is unestimated and final actual reserve selection still unresolved.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 15.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 13.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "4685694", "name": "Steve Angeli", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/609", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "87", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 28, "passingYards": 224, "passingTD": 3, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 3, "completionPct": 64.28600311279297, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8, "rushAttempts": 7, "rushingYards": 21, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4685694/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 156, "passingYards": 1317, "passingTD": 10, "interceptions": 2, "sacks": 11, "completionPct": 62.82099914550781, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8.442000389099121, "rushAttempts": 23, "rushingYards": -33, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -1.434999942779541, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4685694/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 104, "passingYards": 731, "passingTD": 4, "interceptions": 5, "sacks": 8, "completionPct": 54.79999923706055, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7, "rushAttempts": 14, "rushingYards": -23, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -1.600000023841858, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4685694/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "87", "183" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. 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Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5289321", "name": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/608", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "183", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5289321/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "183", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5289321/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 30, "rushingYards": 146, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.900000095367432, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 15, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5289321/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "183" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4870928", "name": "Malachi Nelson", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/772", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "68", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 17, "passingYards": 128, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 2, "completionPct": 70.58799743652344, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.5289998054504395, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": -11, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -5.5, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4870928/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 190, "passingYards": 1163, "passingTD": 8, "interceptions": 9, "sacks": 10, "completionPct": 54.73699951171875, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.120999813079834, "rushAttempts": 23, "rushingYards": -13, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -0.5649999976158142, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4870928/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 2, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4870928/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "68", "2638" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5086156", "name": "Danny Lauter", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/773", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "46", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 285, "passingYards": 1852, "passingTD": 11, "interceptions": 10, "sacks": 11, "completionPct": 61.40399932861328, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.498000144958496, "rushAttempts": 42, "rushingYards": 10, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0.23800000548362732, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5086156/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "46", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 85, "passingYards": 618, "passingTD": 5, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 1, "completionPct": 61.17599868774414, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.270999908447266, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 9, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5086156/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "183", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5086156/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "46" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5261613", "name": "Tylik Hill", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/613", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "183", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5261613/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 24, "rushingYards": 129, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.375, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 4, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5261613/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 46, "rushingYards": 287, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.199999809265137, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 5, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5261613/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "183" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5154420", "name": "Ahmad Miller", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/614", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2296", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 18, "rushingYards": 95, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.2779998779296875, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 25, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5154420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2296", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 163, "rushingYards": 1035, "rushingTD": 5, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.349999904632568, "receptions": 5, "receivingYards": 26, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5154420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 24, "rushingYards": 102, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.300000190734863, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 2, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5154420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2296" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Danny Lauter", "year": 2026, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Tylik Hill", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Amari Odom" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/183/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "https://cuse.com/news/2026/10/9/football-orange-conclude-road-swing-at-uva", "https://cuse.com/news/2026/8/24/football-brown-names-angeli-qb1" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Darien Williams four catches/25 yards trails Hatcher29/Ross-Simmons10/DariusJohnson12; no extra mainWR deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858258", "teamId": "258", "team": "Virginia Cavaliers", "side": "home", "opponent": "Syracuse Orange", "conferenceReportKey": "Virginia", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4685696", "name": "Beau Pribula", "position": "QB", "workload": "80/118, 961 YDS, 12 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/4685696/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870819", "name": "Eli Holstein", "position": "QB", "workload": "12/18, 180 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/4870819/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5121721", "name": "Jekail Middlebrook", "position": "RB", "workload": "50 CAR, 242 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/5121721/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4873442", "name": "Xavier Brown", "position": "RB", "workload": "31 CAR, 166 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/4873442/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5210729", "name": "Xay Davis", "position": "RB", "workload": "32 CAR, 160 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/5210729/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5147376", "name": "Kameron Courtney", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 166 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/5147376/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870713", "name": "Rico Flores Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 152 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/4870713/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5222394", "name": "Da'Shawn Martin", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 148 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/5222394/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4685594", "name": "Dakota Twitty", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 62 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/4685594/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5143920", "name": "John Rogers", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 31 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/5143920/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Dillon Newton-Short", "id": "5212231", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Triston Ward", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Jack Stevens", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Virginia Cavaliers: current report contains 3 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/258/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 15.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 13.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. 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Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.352564102564102, 33.53525641025641 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.375, 28.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.041538461538461, 4.541538461538461 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "names": [ "Amari Odom" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "names": [ "Steve Angeli", "Shavane Anderson Jr." ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "replacement_identity", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Angeli OUT, Odom DOUBTFUL, actual third-quarterback replacement/workload unresolved; same-role -3 does not bound an unverified reserve." } ], "unresolved_high": 3, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charlottesville&state=VA&site=LWX&textField1=38.0374&textField2=-78.4857&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:30:00-04:00", "window": "Showers, mainly after 10pm. Low around 58. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 21, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Amari Odom" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401858258", "matchup": "Syracuse Orange at Virginia Cavaliers", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 49.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858258", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.337483+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.540786+00:00", "home_line": -11.5, "away_line": 11.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 49.5, "under_line": 49.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -440.0, "away_ml": 340.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 6.331410256410251, "production_adjusted": 0.33141025641025124, "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.33141025641025124, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "directional_buffer": -1.2816433566433574, "scenario_minimum": -1.2816433566433574 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 13.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "directional_buffer": -2.3115221106002863, "scenario_minimum": -2.3115221106002863 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 0.33141025641025124, "scenario_minimum": 0.33141025641025124 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 0.33141025641025124, "scenario_minimum": 0.33141025641025124 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 0.33141025641025124, "stressed_buffer": -2.6685897435897488 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 0.33141025641025124, "stressed_buffer": -2.6685897435897488 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 3.3314102564102512, "stressed_buffer": 0.33141025641025124 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 6.331410256410251, "stressed_buffer": 3.3314102564102512 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 17.33346153846154, 35.509166666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 3.3426282051282072, "stressed_buffer": 0.34262820512820724 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 20.33346153846154, 35.509166666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 6.342628205128207, "stressed_buffer": 3.3426282051282072 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 23.33346153846154, 35.509166666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 9.342628205128207, "stressed_buffer": 6.342628205128207 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 23.33346153846154, 35.509166666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.352564102564102, 33.53525641025641 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.375, 28.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.041538461538461, 4.541538461538461 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "names": [ "Amari Odom" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "names": [ "Steve Angeli", "Shavane Anderson Jr." ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "replacement_identity", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Angeli OUT, Odom DOUBTFUL, actual third-quarterback replacement/workload unresolved; same-role -3 does not bound an unverified reserve." }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 3, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charlottesville&state=VA&site=LWX&textField1=38.0374&textField2=-78.4857&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:30:00-04:00", "window": "Showers, mainly after 10pm. Low around 58. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 21, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Amari Odom" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401858485", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401858485", "date": "2026-10-10T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3632", "fullName": "Beaver Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "University Park", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "30", "away_name": "USC Trojans", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "213", "home_name": "Penn State Nittany Lions", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ] }, { "teamId": "213", "side": "home", "player": "Koby Howard", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 36.5, 22.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 37.333333333333336, 25.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.75, 21.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 32.0, 16.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ] }, { "teamId": "213", "side": "home", "player": "Koby Howard", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 34.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 31.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "213", "side": "home", "player": "Koby Howard", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.5, "pa": 22.416666666666668, "margin": 14.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752798", "401752814", "401752832", "401752847", "401752850", "401752868", "401752871", "401752892", "401752896", "401752907", "401752911", "401752919" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.333333333333336, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 11.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401864494", "401858436", "401858445", "401858457", "401858469", "401858478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 21.416666666666668, "margin": 10.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752807", "401752811", "401752835", "401752854", "401752855", "401752866", "401752875", "401752889", "401752893", "401752903", "401752908", "401752920" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.0, "pa": 16.0, "margin": 16.0, "event_ids": [ "401858434", "401858442", "401858456", "401858466", "401858476" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 28.958333333333336, 27.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.666666666666668, 28.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.041666666666666435, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.0, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "213", "side": "home", "player": "Koby Howard", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.5, "pa": 22.416666666666668, "margin": 14.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752798", "401752814", "401752832", "401752847", "401752850", "401752868", "401752871", "401752892", "401752896", "401752907", "401752911", "401752919" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.333333333333336, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 11.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401864494", "401858436", "401858445", "401858457", "401858469", "401858478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 21.416666666666668, "margin": 10.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752807", "401752811", "401752835", "401752854", "401752855", "401752866", "401752875", "401752889", "401752893", "401752903", "401752908", "401752920" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.0, "pa": 16.0, "margin": 16.0, "event_ids": [ "401858434", "401858442", "401858456", "401858466", "401858476" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 28.958333333333336, 27.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.666666666666668, 28.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.041666666666666435, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.0, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "USC Trojans", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trent Mosley, Mark Bowman", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Corey Simms", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Corey Simms" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401858485", "matchup": "USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany Lions", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "USC Trojans", "names": [ "Trent Mosley", "Mark Bowman" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "USC Trojans", "names": [ "Corey Simms" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Penn State Nittany Lions", "names": [ "Koby Howard" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved. | Howard leads receiving yards, 12/344, so OUT is a main receiver trigger. Sowell 19/264 and receiving TE Brahmer 16/178 remain available on Friday report; target allocation unestimated. Cooper Alexander has no established primary receiving workload and no automatic extra penalty.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 28.916666666666668, 29.458333333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 28.958333333333336, 27.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.666666666666668, 28.75 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.041666666666666435, 1.5416666666666665 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 200, "def_points_proxy": 156, "off_plays": 508, "off_yards": 3265, "def_plays": 450, "def_yards": 2778, "early_plays": 400, "early_yards": 2449, "explosive_plays": 46, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858436", "401858445", "401858457", "401858469", "401858478", "401864494" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 3.3333333333333335, "def_ppd": 2.5161290322580645, "off_ypp": 6.427165354330708, "def_ypp": 6.173333333333333, "early_down_ypp": 6.1225 }, "home": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 154, "def_points_proxy": 81, "off_plays": 413, "off_yards": 2413, "def_plays": 413, "def_yards": 2213, "early_plays": 290, "early_yards": 1692, "explosive_plays": 34, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858434", "401858442", "401858456", "401858466", "401858476" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.5245901639344264, "def_ppd": 1.3064516129032258, "off_ypp": 5.842615012106537, "def_ypp": 5.358353510895884, "early_down_ypp": 5.834482758620689 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Rain likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=University+Park&state=PA&site=CTP&textField1=40.8002&textField2=-77.858&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "USC Trojans", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trent Mosley, Mark Bowman", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Corey Simms", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Corey Simms" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858485", "matchup": "USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany Lions", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "USC Trojans", "names": [ "Trent Mosley", "Mark Bowman" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "USC Trojans", "names": [ "Corey Simms" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Penn State Nittany Lions", "names": [ "Koby Howard" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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"source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/4685454/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5161854", "name": "Jonas Williams", "position": "QB", "workload": "12/14, 126 YDS, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5161854/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5233016", "name": "King Miller", "position": "RB", "workload": "95 CAR, 493 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5233016/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295318", "name": "Waymond Jordan", "position": "RB", "workload": "57 CAR, 265 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5295318/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5158934", "name": "Shahn Alston", "position": "RB", "workload": "17 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5158934/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5161013", "name": "Kayden Dixon-Wyatt", "position": "WR", "workload": "25 REC, 372 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5161013/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5146757", "name": "Zacharyus Williams", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 258 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5146757/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5160469", "name": "Trent Mosley", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 255 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5160469/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5264686", "name": "Mark Bowman", "position": "TE", "workload": "21 REC, 204 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5264686/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4905248", "name": "Carson Tabaracci", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 64 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/4905248/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Corey Simms", "id": "5148664", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "12 REC, 178 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Terrell Anderson", "id": "5084658", "position": "WR", "status": "doubtful", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 50 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Trent Mosley", "id": "5160469", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 8 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "13 REC, 255 YDS, 4 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Mark Bowman", "id": "5264686", "position": "TE", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "21 REC, 204 YDS, 2 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Trent Mosley", "Mark Bowman" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "Primary": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "TightenUpON": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ] } }, { "name": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "Primary": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "TightenUpON": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -6, "overlapTreatment": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "overlapSensitivity": -3, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5160469", "name": "Trent Mosley", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/585", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5160469/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5160469/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "30", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 8, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 8, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 255, "receivingTD": 4, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5160469/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "30" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. 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Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5146757", "name": "Zacharyus Williams", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/593", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "254", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 16, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.333000183105469, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 101, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5146757/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 80, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5146757/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "30", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": -7, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -7, "receptions": 14, "receivingYards": 258, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5146757/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "254", "30" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. 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Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5141975", "name": "Tanook Hines", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/594", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141975/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 28, "receivingYards": 398, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141975/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "30", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 11, "receivingYards": 113, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141975/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "30" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5158959", "name": "Tron Baker", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/595", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5158959/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5158959/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "30", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 8, "receivingYards": 111, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5158959/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "30" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [ "Corey Simms" ], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Trent Mosley", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Trent Mosley", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Mark Bowman", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Mark Bowman", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Kayden Dixon-Wyatt", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Kayden Dixon-Wyatt", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Tanook Hines", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Tron Baker", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Tron Baker", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trent Mosley, Mark Bowman", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Corey Simms", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Corey Simms" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/30/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [ { "name": "Corey Simms", "id": "5148664", "status": "out", "reason": "12 catches/178 yards is a material rotation but fourth WR by yards. Retain role-conditional sensitivity; shared target redistribution with Mosley/Bowman prevents automatic three-name multiplication.", "condition": "Only if covered/main-role workload is confirmed; OUT is verified but main-role eligibility is conditional", "incumbentHistoryRef": "player-histories.json#/players/586", "candidateReplacements": [ { "id": "5161013", "name": "Kayden Dixon-Wyatt", "position": "WR", "workload": "25 REC, 372 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5161013/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/592" }, { "id": "5146757", "name": "Zacharyus Williams", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 258 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5146757/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/593" }, { "id": "5160469", "name": "Trent Mosley", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 255 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5160469/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/585" } ], "statisticalPointEffect": null, "isolatedHumanDeduction": -3, "jointWithConfirmedDeduction": -3, "overlap": "Shared passing-drive/target uncertainty retained; no automatic extra joint deduction.", "scores": { "Classic": { "isolated": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ] }, "Primary": { "isolated": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ] }, "TightenUpON": { "isolated": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ] }, "TightenUpOFF": { "isolated": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ] } } } ] } }, { "eventId": "401858485", "teamId": "213", "team": "Penn State Nittany Lions", "side": "home", "opponent": "USC Trojans", "conferenceReportKey": "Penn State", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4801299", "name": "Rocco Becht", "position": "QB", "workload": "83/134, 1108 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/4801299/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5164316", "name": "Alex Manske", "position": "QB", "workload": "9/14, 102 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/5164316/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5110454", "name": "James Peoples", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 212 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/5110454/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5077502", "name": "Carson Hansen", "position": "RB", "workload": "43 CAR, 199 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/5077502/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079577", "name": "Quinton Martin Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "29 CAR, 158 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/5079577/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5141525", "name": "Koby Howard", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 344 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/5141525/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4912067", "name": "Chase Sowell", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 264 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/4912067/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5148535", "name": "Brett Eskildsen", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/5148535/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4870608", "name": "Benjamin Brahmer", "position": "TE", "workload": "16 REC, 178 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/4870608/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4899484", "name": "Andrew Rappleyea", "position": "TE", "workload": "10 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/4899484/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Koby Howard", "id": "5141525", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "2 CAR, 24 YDS, 1 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "12 REC, 344 YDS, 2 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Cooper Alexander", "id": "5146740", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Howard leads receiving yards, 12/344, so OUT is a main receiver trigger. Sowell 19/264 and receiving TE Brahmer 16/178 remain available on Friday report; target allocation unestimated. Cooper Alexander has no established primary receiving workload and no automatic extra penalty.", "confirmed": [ "Koby Howard" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Koby Howard", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "Primary": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "TightenUpON": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Howard leads receiving yards, 12/344, so OUT is a main receiver trigger. Sowell 19/264 and receiving TE Brahmer 16/178 remain available on Friday report; target allocation unestimated. Cooper Alexander has no established primary receiving workload and no automatic extra penalty.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5141525", "name": "Koby Howard", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/570", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "213", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141525/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "213", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 5, "receivingYards": 99, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141525/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "213", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 24, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 12, "receptions": 12, "receivingYards": 344, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141525/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "213" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4912067", "name": "Chase Sowell", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/577", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "151", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 34, "receivingYards": 678, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4912067/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "66", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 32, "receivingYards": 500, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4912067/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "213", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 19, "receivingYards": 264, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4912067/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "151", "66" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5148535", "name": "Brett Eskildsen", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/579", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "66", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 17, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5148535/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "66", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 30, "receivingYards": 526, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5148535/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "213", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 15, "receivingYards": 128, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5148535/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "66" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4870608", "name": "Benjamin Brahmer", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/578", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "66", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 179, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4870608/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "66", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 45, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 45, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": -2, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -2, "receptions": 37, "receivingYards": 446, "receivingTD": 6, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4870608/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "213", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 16, "receivingYards": 178, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4870608/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "66" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Koby Howard", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/213/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 28.916666666666668, 29.458333333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 28.958333333333336, 27.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.666666666666668, 28.75 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.041666666666666435, 1.5416666666666665 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany Lions", "market": { "id": "401858485", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858485", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.366795+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.528353+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 54.5, "under_line": 54.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -108.0, "home_ml": -122.0, "away_ml": 102.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 54.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.4753787878787854, "combined": 55.84659090909091, "spread_buffer": -0.024621212121214597, "total_difference": 1.3465909090909065 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -1.5246212121212146, "combined": 52.84659090909091, "spread_buffer": -3.0246212121212146, "total_difference": -1.6534090909090935 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 11.133681182972534, "combined": 56.44370878772666, "spread_buffer": 9.633681182972534, "total_difference": 1.9437087877266634 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 8.133681182972534, "combined": 53.44370878772666, "spread_buffer": 6.633681182972534, "total_difference": -1.0562912122733366 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.6875000000000036, "combined": 57.22916666666667, "spread_buffer": 0.18750000000000355, "total_difference": 2.7291666666666714 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -1.3124999999999964, "combined": 54.22916666666667, "spread_buffer": -2.8124999999999964, "total_difference": -0.2708333333333286 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401858485", "matchup": "USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany Lions", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "USC Trojans", "line": 1.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858485", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.366795+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.528353+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 54.5, "under_line": 54.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -108.0, "home_ml": -122.0, "away_ml": 102.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": -0.18750000000000355, "production_adjusted": 2.8124999999999964, "minimum_all_scenarios": -6.1875000000000036, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "directional_buffer": 3.0246212121212146, "scenario_minimum": -5.975378787878785 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "directional_buffer": -6.633681182972534, "scenario_minimum": -15.633681182972534 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 2.8124999999999964, "scenario_minimum": -6.1875000000000036 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 2.8124999999999964, "scenario_minimum": -6.1875000000000036 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 21.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": -6.1875000000000036, "stressed_buffer": -9.187500000000004 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 21.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": -3.1875000000000036, "stressed_buffer": -6.1875000000000036 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 21.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": -6.1875000000000036, "stressed_buffer": -9.187500000000004 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": -0.18750000000000355, "stressed_buffer": -3.1875000000000036 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": -3.1875000000000036, "stressed_buffer": -6.1875000000000036 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 2.8124999999999964, "stressed_buffer": -0.18750000000000355 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": -0.18750000000000355, "stressed_buffer": -3.1875000000000036 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 22.916666666666668, 26.458333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": -2.041666666666668, "stressed_buffer": -5.041666666666668 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 22.916666666666668, 29.458333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": -5.041666666666668, "stressed_buffer": -8.041666666666668 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.916666666666668, 26.458333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 0.9583333333333321, "stressed_buffer": -2.041666666666668 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.916666666666668, 29.458333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": -2.041666666666668, "stressed_buffer": -5.041666666666668 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.916666666666668, 26.458333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 3.958333333333332, "stressed_buffer": 0.9583333333333321 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.916666666666668, 29.458333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 0.9583333333333321, "stressed_buffer": -2.041666666666668 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 28.916666666666668, 29.458333333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 28.958333333333336, 27.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.666666666666668, 28.75 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.041666666666666435, 1.5416666666666665 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "USC Trojans", "names": [ "Trent Mosley", "Mark Bowman" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned.", "combinedEvidence": [ { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "USC Trojans", "names": [ "Corey Simms" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." } ] }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Penn State Nittany Lions", "names": [ "Koby Howard" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=University+Park&state=PA&site=CTP&textField1=40.8002&textField2=-77.858&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:30:00-04:00", "window": "Rain likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "USC Trojans", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trent Mosley, Mark Bowman", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Corey Simms", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Corey Simms" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401858485", "matchup": "USC Trojans at Penn 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New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "USC Trojans", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trent Mosley, Mark Bowman", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Corey Simms", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Corey Simms" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401864516", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401864516", "date": "2026-10-10T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3764", "fullName": "Huskie Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Dekalb", "state": "IL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2005", "away_name": "Air Force Falcons", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2459", "home_name": "Northern Illinois Huskies", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2005", "side": "away", "player": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "isolated_score": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 29.833333333333332, 30.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 29.0, 20.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 17.083333333333332, 24.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 13.75, 36.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 21.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 21.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2005", "side": "away", "player": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "isolated_score": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2005", "side": "away", "player": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.833333333333332, "pa": 30.333333333333332, "margin": -0.5, "event_ids": [ "401760359", "401760368", "401760372", "401760378", "401760381", "401760386", "401760392", "401760401", "401760406", "401757174", "401760415", "401760421" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 29.0, "pa": 20.0, "margin": 9.0, "event_ids": [ "401864496", "401864502", "401864509", "401862791" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.083333333333332, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": -7.25, "event_ids": [ "401762793", "401752826", "401752712", "401760380", "401762873", "401762836", "401762843", "401762845", "401762854", "401762859", "401762864", "401762871" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 13.75, "pa": 36.25, "margin": -22.5, "event_ids": [ "401858426", "401864503", "401856793", "401864511" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.083333333333332, 23.708333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.625, 16.875 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.825, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 18.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 18.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2005", "side": "away", "player": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.833333333333332, "pa": 30.333333333333332, "margin": -0.5, "event_ids": [ "401760359", "401760368", "401760372", "401760378", "401760381", "401760386", "401760392", "401760401", "401760406", "401757174", "401760415", "401760421" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 29.0, "pa": 20.0, "margin": 9.0, "event_ids": [ "401864496", "401864502", "401864509", "401862791" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.083333333333332, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": -7.25, "event_ids": [ "401762793", "401752826", "401752712", "401760380", "401762873", "401762836", "401762843", "401762845", "401762854", "401762859", "401762864", "401762871" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 13.75, "pa": 36.25, "margin": -22.5, "event_ids": [ "401858426", "401864503", "401856793", "401864511" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.083333333333332, 23.708333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.625, 16.875 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.825, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 18.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 18.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401864516", "matchup": "Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois Huskies", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Air Force Falcons", "names": [ "Liam Szarka" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "replacement_experience", "team": "Air Force Falcons", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Medders seven pass attempts/current first action; option-execution replacement uncertainty.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "MW lists Szarka out for season; he is team leader in passing and rushing. Medders has seven current pass attempts and 18 rushes; official September note identifies first game action in 2026. Only one -3 for this QB, not separate deduction for being top rusher. Limited prior replacement sample and option execution materially widen uncertainty. | Northern Illinois Huskies: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.67916666666667, 21.383333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.083333333333332, 23.708333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.625, 16.875 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.825, -2.325 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 42, "def_drives": 43, "off_points_proxy": 113, "def_points_proxy": 81, "off_plays": 372, "off_yards": 1912, "def_plays": 299, "def_yards": 1533, "early_plays": 262, "early_yards": 1141, "explosive_plays": 22, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862791", "401864496", "401864502", "401864509" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.6904761904761907, "def_ppd": 1.8837209302325582, "off_ypp": 5.139784946236559, "def_ypp": 5.127090301003345, "early_down_ypp": 4.354961832061068 }, "home": { "off_drives": 46, "def_drives": 46, "off_points_proxy": 48, "def_points_proxy": 125, "off_plays": 339, "off_yards": 1775, "def_plays": 322, "def_yards": 1999, "early_plays": 228, "early_yards": 1057, "explosive_plays": 23, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856793", "401858426", "401864503", "401864511" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 1.0434782608695652, "def_ppd": 2.717391304347826, "off_ypp": 5.23598820058997, "def_ypp": 6.208074534161491, "early_down_ypp": 4.635964912280702 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Increasing clouds, with a high near 81. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 55. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dekalb&state=IL&site=LOT&textField1=41.8926&textField2=-88.7585&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401864516", "matchup": "Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois Huskies", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Air Force Falcons", "names": [ "Liam Szarka" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "replacement_experience", "team": "Air Force Falcons", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Medders seven pass attempts/current first action; option-execution replacement uncertainty.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5223119/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5223131/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5223147/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5223149/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5238868/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx", "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview" ], "tu": { "id": "401864516", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401864516", "date": "2026-10-10T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3764", "fullName": "Huskie Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Dekalb", "state": "IL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2005", "away_name": "Air Force Falcons", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2459", "home_name": "Northern Illinois Huskies", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.833333333333332, "pa": 30.333333333333332, "margin": -0.5, "event_ids": [ "401760359", "401760368", "401760372", "401760378", "401760381", "401760386", "401760392", "401760401", "401760406", "401757174", "401760415", "401760421" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 29.0, "pa": 20.0, "margin": 9.0, "event_ids": [ "401864496", "401864502", "401864509", "401862791" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.083333333333332, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": -7.25, "event_ids": [ "401762793", "401752826", "401752712", "401760380", "401762873", "401762836", "401762843", "401762845", "401762854", "401762859", "401762864", "401762871" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 13.75, "pa": 36.25, "margin": -22.5, "event_ids": [ "401858426", "401864503", "401856793", "401864511" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.083333333333332, 23.708333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.625, 16.875 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.825, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 15.679166666666667, 51.67916666666667 ], "home": [ 0, 35.96666666666667 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401864516", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401864516", "teamId": "2005", "team": "Air Force Falcons", "side": "away", "opponent": "Northern Illinois Huskies", "conferenceReportKey": "Air Force", "officialReport": { "url": "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-08 initial reports: Nevada/UTEP 15:24 MT; NDSU/UNLV 14:53 PT; Air Force/NIU 12:10 CT", "conference": "MW" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5238868", "name": "Liam Szarka", "position": "QB", "workload": "19/38, 296 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5238868/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5306440", "name": "Evan Medders", "position": "QB", "workload": "3/7, 47 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5306440/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5223131", "name": "Rocco Conti", "position": "RB", "workload": "35 CAR, 187 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5223131/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5223119", "name": "Owen Allen", "position": "RB", "workload": "43 CAR, 138 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5223119/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295010", "name": "Gage LaDue", "position": "FB", "workload": "15 CAR, 80 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5295010/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5223149", "name": "Adam Hrynciw", "position": "WR", "workload": "4 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5223149/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5238869", "name": "Matt Long", "position": "WR", "workload": "4 REC, 80 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5238869/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5238876", "name": "Jonah Dawson", "position": "WR", "workload": "3 REC, 39 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5238876/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5223147", "name": "Simon Kibbee", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 103 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5223147/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Liam Szarka", "id": "5238868", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "19/38, 296 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "92 CAR, 391 YDS, 7 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Jalen Rashad Turner", "id": "5223123", "position": "RB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 9 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Sylas Maiava-Alaimalo", "id": "5309672", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "2 CAR, 5 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 34 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Griffin Stalfort", "id": "5223138", "position": "TE", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "MW lists Szarka out for season; he is team leader in passing and rushing. Medders has seven current pass attempts and 18 rushes; official September note identifies first game action in 2026. Only one -3 for this QB, not separate deduction for being top rusher. Limited prior replacement sample and option execution materially widen uncertainty.", "confirmed": [ "Liam Szarka" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "Primary": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "TightenUpON": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "MW lists Szarka out for season; he is team leader in passing and rushing. Medders has seven current pass attempts and 18 rushes; official September note identifies first game action in 2026. Only one -3 for this QB, not separate deduction for being top rusher. Limited prior replacement sample and option execution materially widen uncertainty.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5238868", "name": "Liam Szarka", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/639", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2005", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5238868/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2005", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 120, "passingYards": 1294, "passingTD": 9, "interceptions": 5, "sacks": 9, "completionPct": 62.5, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 10.782999992370605, "rushAttempts": 190, "rushingYards": 922, "rushingTD": 13, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.853000164031982, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5238868/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2005", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 38, "passingYards": 296, "passingTD": 1, "interceptions": 4, "sacks": 2, "completionPct": 50, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.800000190734863, "rushAttempts": 92, "rushingYards": 391, "rushingTD": 7, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.300000190734863, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5238868/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2005" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5306440", "name": "Evan Medders", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/641", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2005", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5306440/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2005", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5306440/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2005", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 7, "passingYards": 47, "passingTD": 1, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 42.900001525878906, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.699999809265137, "rushAttempts": 18, "rushingYards": 109, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.099999904632568, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5306440/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2005" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Liam Szarka", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Evan Medders", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Evan Medders", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2005/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx", "https://goairforcefalcons.com/sports/football/stats/2026", "https://goairforcefalcons.com/news/2026/9/7/football-game-2-air-force-vs-north-dakota-state" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Turner one carry trails Conti35/Allen43/LaDue15; Maiava-Alaimalo two catches/34 yards behind Kibbee6/Hrynciw4/Long4/Dawson3. No extra main role established.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401864516", "teamId": "2459", "team": "Northern Illinois Huskies", "side": "home", "opponent": "Air Force Falcons", "conferenceReportKey": "Northern Illinois", "officialReport": { "url": "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-08 initial reports: Nevada/UTEP 15:24 MT; NDSU/UNLV 14:53 PT; Air Force/NIU 12:10 CT", "conference": "MW" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4881032", "name": "Taron Dickens", "position": "QB", "workload": "84/120, 837 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/4881032/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5210128", "name": "Brady Davidson", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/6, 27 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5210128/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5193302", "name": "Telly Johnson Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "57 CAR, 253 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5193302/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5219932", "name": "Elijah Porter", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5219932/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5291180", "name": "Jaiduan Cranford", "position": "RB", "workload": "8 CAR, 59 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5291180/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5296150", "name": "DeAree Rogers", "position": "WR", "workload": "31 REC, 252 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5296150/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5193292", "name": "La'Don Bryant", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 185 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5193292/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5083748", "name": "Cam Thompson", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5083748/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5219946", "name": "Jason Fowler", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 25 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5219946/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5215176", "name": "Liam Russo", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 15 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5215176/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Rickey Taylor Jr.", "id": "5219936", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "5 REC, 57 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Da'sean Howard", "id": "5388923", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Devin Habermehl", "id": "5222599", "position": "TE", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Glen Weber", "id": "5388937", "position": "TE", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 15 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Northern Illinois Huskies: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2459/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Taylor five catches versus Rogers31/Bryant14/Thompson9; Weber three catches/15 yards is low receiving volume, same count as Fowler but lower yards and far below main WRs. No primary receiving loss established.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.67916666666667, 21.383333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.083333333333332, 23.708333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.625, 16.875 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.825, -2.325 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois Huskies", "market": { "id": "401864516", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864516", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.409163+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.596363+00:00", "home_line": 7.0, "away_line": -7.0, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 46.5, "under_line": 46.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 250.0, "away_ml": -310.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 7.0, "average_total": 46.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -6.824999999999999, "combined": 50.27499999999999, "spread_buffer": 0.1750000000000007, "total_difference": 3.7749999999999915 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -3.8249999999999993, "combined": 47.27499999999999, "spread_buffer": 3.1750000000000007, "total_difference": 0.7749999999999915 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.8933346624118208, "combined": 49.481004049135464, "spread_buffer": 8.89333466241182, "total_difference": 2.981004049135464 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 4.893334662411821, "combined": 46.481004049135464, "spread_buffer": 11.89333466241182, "total_difference": -0.01899595086453587 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -15.712500000000002, "combined": 51.64583333333333, "spread_buffer": -8.712500000000002, "total_difference": 5.145833333333329 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -12.712500000000002, "combined": 48.64583333333333, "spread_buffer": -5.712500000000002, "total_difference": 2.1458333333333286 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401864516", "matchup": "Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois Huskies", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK", "ON_UNRESOLVED_MEDIUM_AVAILABILITY" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Air Force Falcons", "line": -7.0, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864516", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.409163+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.596363+00:00", "home_line": 7.0, "away_line": -7.0, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 46.5, "under_line": 46.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 250.0, "away_ml": -310.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 8.712500000000002, "production_adjusted": 5.712500000000002, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.295833333333338, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "directional_buffer": -3.1750000000000007, "scenario_minimum": -3.1750000000000007 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "directional_buffer": -11.89333466241182, "scenario_minimum": -11.89333466241182 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 5.712500000000002, "scenario_minimum": 5.712500000000002 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 5.712500000000002, "scenario_minimum": 5.712500000000002 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.679166666666667, 21.38333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 2.295833333333338, "stressed_buffer": -0.7041666666666622 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 5.712500000000002, "stressed_buffer": 2.712500000000002 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 8.712500000000002, "stressed_buffer": 5.712500000000002 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.679166666666667, 21.38333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 2.295833333333338, "stressed_buffer": -0.7041666666666622 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.67916666666667, 21.38333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 5.295833333333338, "stressed_buffer": 2.295833333333338 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.67916666666667, 21.383333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.083333333333332, 23.708333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.625, 16.875 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.825, -2.325 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Air Force Falcons", "names": [ "Liam Szarka" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "replacement_experience", "team": "Air Force Falcons", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Medders seven pass attempts/current first action; option-execution replacement uncertainty.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dekalb&state=IL&site=LOT&textField1=41.8926&textField2=-88.7585&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:30:00-05:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 55. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "256", "side": "away", "player": "Corey Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "isolated_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] }, { "teamId": "290", "side": "home", "player": "Ashton Hollins", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "isolated_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 37.30769230769231, "pa": 15.846153846153847, "margin": 21.46153846153846, "event_ids": [ "401761590", "401754528", "401757262", "401761614", "401761618", "401761625", "401761631", "401761639", "401761646", "401761652", "401752954", "401761662", "401777352" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.8, "pa": 13.2, "margin": 31.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401869960", "401867929", "401860887", "401869961", "401869962" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401760361", "401752814", "401757234", "401761609", "401761614", "401761622", "401761630", "401761636", "401761644", "401761650", "401761657", "401761663" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.8, "pa": 23.8, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401868170", "401858219", "401869948", "401856806", "401869942" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.3, 19.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 5.839487179487179, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 41.0, 16.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 38.0, 13.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "256", "side": "away", "player": "Corey Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "isolated_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] }, { "teamId": "290", "side": "home", "player": "Ashton Hollins", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "isolated_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 37.30769230769231, "pa": 15.846153846153847, "margin": 21.46153846153846, "event_ids": [ "401761590", "401754528", "401757262", "401761614", "401761618", "401761625", "401761631", "401761639", "401761646", "401761652", "401752954", "401761662", "401777352" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.8, "pa": 13.2, "margin": 31.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401869960", "401867929", "401860887", "401869961", "401869962" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401760361", "401752814", "401757234", "401761609", "401761614", "401761622", "401761630", "401761636", "401761644", "401761650", "401761657", "401761663" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.8, "pa": 23.8, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401868170", "401858219", "401869948", "401856806", "401869942" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.3, 19.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 5.839487179487179, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 41.0, 16.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 38.0, 13.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401869949", "matchup": "James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern Eagles", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "names": [ "Corey Scott" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "names": [ "Ashton Hollins" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Top receiver Corey Scott OUT: 21 catches/289 yards/4 TD. Receiving TE Keller 12/163 and two other current receivers are candidates; target changes not quantitatively projected. | Hollins OUT for season after 14 catches/202 yards/2 TD, third receiving yards. Dallas PROBABLE with 29 catches and receiving TE Helms 20 catches are redistribution candidates; one-catch reserve King Phillips no additional deduction.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "currentMatchup": [ 34.3, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 5.839487179487179, -4.339487179487179 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 66, "off_points_proxy": 205, "def_points_proxy": 88, "off_plays": 402, "off_yards": 3082, "def_plays": 472, "def_yards": 2345, "early_plays": 300, "early_yards": 2247, "explosive_plays": 43, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401860887", "401867929", "401869960", "401869961", "401869962" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.360655737704918, "def_ppd": 1.3333333333333333, "off_ypp": 7.666666666666667, "def_ypp": 4.968220338983051, "early_down_ypp": 7.49 }, "home": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 124, "def_points_proxy": 105, "off_plays": 428, "off_yards": 2546, "def_plays": 413, "def_yards": 2078, "early_plays": 296, "early_yards": 1619, "explosive_plays": 31, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856806", "401858219", "401868170", "401869942", "401869948" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.1016949152542375, "def_ppd": 1.8103448275862069, "off_ypp": 5.9485981308411215, "def_ypp": 5.031476997578692, "early_down_ypp": 5.469594594594595 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 3pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. High near 81. Southeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2am and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Low around 69. Southeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Statesboro&state=GA&site=CHS&textField1=32.4424&textField2=-81.7792&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401869949", "matchup": "James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern Eagles", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "names": [ "Corey Scott" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "names": [ "Ashton Hollins" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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"https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5301871/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview" ], "tu": { "id": "401869949", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401869949", "date": "2026-10-10T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3608", "fullName": "Allen E. Paulson Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Statesboro", "state": "GA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "256", "away_name": "James Madison Dukes", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "290", "home_name": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 37.30769230769231, "pa": 15.846153846153847, "margin": 21.46153846153846, "event_ids": [ "401761590", "401754528", "401757262", "401761614", "401761618", "401761625", "401761631", "401761639", "401761646", "401761652", "401752954", "401761662", "401777352" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.8, "pa": 13.2, "margin": 31.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401869960", "401867929", "401860887", "401869961", "401869962" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401760361", "401752814", "401757234", "401761609", "401761614", "401761622", "401761630", "401761636", "401761644", "401761650", "401761657", "401761663" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.8, "pa": 23.8, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401868170", "401858219", "401869948", "401856806", "401869942" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.3, 19.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 5.839487179487179, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 22.858076923076922, 58.85807692307692 ], "home": [ 0, 34.08038461538462 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401869949", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401869949", "teamId": "256", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "side": "away", "opponent": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "conferenceReportKey": "James Madison", "officialReport": { "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "posted": "Initial reports October 7-8; exact per-game timestamps retained below", "conference": "SB" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5153978", "name": "Camden Coleman", "position": "QB", "workload": "80/127, 979 YDS, 10 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5153978/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5147757", "name": "Arrington Maiden", "position": "QB", "workload": "7/8, 111 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5147757/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4685494", "name": "George Pettaway", "position": "RB", "workload": "74 CAR, 497 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/4685494/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5298748", "name": "Nick Herman", "position": "RB", "workload": "38 CAR, 260 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5298748/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5225435", "name": "Seth Cromwell", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5225435/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5165803", "name": "Corey Scott", "position": "WR", "workload": "21 REC, 289 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5165803/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5078227", "name": "Braeden Wisloski", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 165 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5078227/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5214955", "name": "Michael Scott", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 129 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5214955/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5301871", "name": "Cole Keller", "position": "TE", "workload": "12 REC, 163 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5301871/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5227231", "name": "KD Mosley", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5227231/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Miles Halbert", "id": "5295796", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Corey Scott", "id": "5165803", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "21 REC, 289 YDS, 4 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Top receiver Corey Scott OUT: 21 catches/289 yards/4 TD. Receiving TE Keller 12/163 and two other current receivers are candidates; target changes not quantitatively projected.", "confirmed": [ "Corey Scott" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Corey Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 31.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "Primary": [ 27.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "TightenUpON": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Top receiver Corey Scott OUT: 21 catches/289 yards/4 TD. Receiving TE Keller 12/163 and two other current receivers are candidates; target changes not quantitatively projected.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 31.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 27.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5165803", "name": "Corey Scott", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/663", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "110242", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5165803/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "256", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5165803/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "256", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 21, "receivingYards": 289, "receivingTD": 4, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5165803/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "110242", "256" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5301871", "name": "Cole Keller", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/670", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "256", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5301871/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2193", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 22, "receivingYards": 226, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5301871/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "256", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 12, "receivingYards": 163, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5301871/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "256", "2193" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5214955", "name": "Michael Scott", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/671", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "256", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5214955/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "256", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 1, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1, "receptions": 8, "receivingYards": 85, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5214955/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "256", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 8, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 8, "receptions": 11, "receivingYards": 129, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5214955/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "256" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5225335", "name": "Noah Grevious", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/672", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2678", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5225335/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2678", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 5, "rushingYards": 87, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 17.399999618530273, "receptions": 52, "receivingYards": 731, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5225335/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "256", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 11, "receivingYards": 116, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5225335/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2678" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Corey Scott", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Corey Scott", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Cole Keller", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Michael Scott", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/256/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401869949", "teamId": "290", "team": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "side": "home", "opponent": "James Madison Dukes", "conferenceReportKey": "Georgia Southern", "officialReport": { "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "posted": "Initial reports October 7-8; exact per-game timestamps retained below", "conference": "SB" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4685740", "name": "Max Johnson", "position": "QB", "workload": "122/186, 1229 YDS, 8 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/4685740/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4912238", "name": "Turner Helton", "position": "QB", "workload": "5/8, 70 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/4912238/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5151112", "name": "David Mbadinga", "position": "RB", "workload": "37 CAR, 227 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/5151112/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5151111", "name": "Jamarian Samuel", "position": "RB", "workload": "15 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/5151111/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5155780", "name": "Taeo Todd", "position": "RB", "workload": "18 CAR, 48 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/5155780/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5079736", "name": "Alex Taylor", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 243 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/5079736/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4869962", "name": "Ashton Hollins", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 202 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/4869962/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4838527", "name": "Josh Dallas", "position": "WR", "workload": "29 REC, 179 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/4838527/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4698179", "name": "River Helms", "position": "TE", "workload": "20 REC, 203 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/4698179/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Josh Dallas", "id": "4838527", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "2 CAR, 10 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "29 REC, 179 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "King Phillips", "id": "5390043", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 5 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Ashton Hollins", "id": "4869962", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "14 REC, 202 YDS, 2 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Hollins OUT for season after 14 catches/202 yards/2 TD, third receiving yards. Dallas PROBABLE with 29 catches and receiving TE Helms 20 catches are redistribution candidates; one-catch reserve King Phillips no additional deduction.", "confirmed": [ "Ashton Hollins" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Ashton Hollins", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 34.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "Primary": [ 30.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "TightenUpON": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Hollins OUT for season after 14 catches/202 yards/2 TD, third receiving yards. Dallas PROBABLE with 29 catches and receiving TE Helms 20 catches are redistribution candidates; one-catch reserve King Phillips no additional deduction.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 34.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 34.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 30.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "4869962", "name": "Ashton Hollins", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/651", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 40, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4869962/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 90, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4869962/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "290", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 14, "receivingYards": 202, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4869962/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "356" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4838527", "name": "Josh Dallas", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/650", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "290", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 24, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 8, "receptions": 41, "receivingYards": 568, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4838527/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "290", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 5, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.5, "receptions": 8, "receivingYards": 68, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4838527/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "290", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 10, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5, "receptions": 29, "receivingYards": 179, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4838527/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "290" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4698179", "name": "River Helms", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/659", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "98", "status": "available", "games": 7, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 19, "receivingYards": 228, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4698179/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "290", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 4, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4698179/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "290", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 20, "receivingYards": 203, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4698179/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "98", "290" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/290/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Phillips one catch versus Dallas29/Taylor16/Hollins14; no separate mainWR deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "currentMatchup": [ 34.3, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 5.839487179487179, -4.339487179487179 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern Eagles", "market": { "id": "401869949", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869949", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.436048+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.627949+00:00", "home_line": 7.5, "away_line": -7.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 250.0, "away_ml": -310.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 7.5, "average_total": 51.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -13.034965034965033, "combined": 55.632867132867126, "spread_buffer": -5.534965034965033, "total_difference": 4.132867132867126 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -13.034965034965033, "combined": 49.632867132867126, "spread_buffer": -5.534965034965033, "total_difference": -1.8671328671328737 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -4.957390132580052, "combined": 55.8765220618031, "spread_buffer": 2.542609867419948, "total_difference": 4.376522061803101 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -4.957390132580052, "combined": 49.8765220618031, "spread_buffer": 2.542609867419948, "total_difference": -1.6234779381968991 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; 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Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "currentMatchup": [ 34.3, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 5.839487179487179, -4.339487179487179 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "names": [ "Corey Scott" ], "severity": "LOW", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "names": [ "Ashton Hollins" ], "severity": "LOW", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. 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New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 24, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -24.777692307692305, "combined": 56.93846153846154, "spread_buffer": -17.277692307692305, "total_difference": 5.438461538461539 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -24.777692307692305, "combined": 50.93846153846154, "spread_buffer": -17.277692307692305, "total_difference": -0.5615384615384613 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401869949", "matchup": "James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern Eagles", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "line": -7.5, "price": -105.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869949", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.436048+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.627949+00:00", "home_line": 7.5, "away_line": -7.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 250.0, "away_ml": -310.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 17.277692307692305, "production_adjusted": 17.277692307692305, "minimum_all_scenarios": 12.85782051282051, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "directional_buffer": 5.534965034965033, "scenario_minimum": 2.5349650349650332 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "directional_buffer": -2.542609867419948, "scenario_minimum": -5.542609867419948 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 17.277692307692305, "scenario_minimum": 14.277692307692305 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 17.277692307692305, "scenario_minimum": 14.277692307692305 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": 12.85782051282051, "stressed_buffer": 9.85782051282051 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 17.277692307692305, "stressed_buffer": 14.277692307692305 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 14.277692307692305, "stressed_buffer": 11.277692307692305 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 20.277692307692305, "stressed_buffer": 17.277692307692305 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 17.277692307692305, "stressed_buffer": 14.277692307692305 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 14.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": 15.85782051282051, "stressed_buffer": 12.85782051282051 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": 12.85782051282051, "stressed_buffer": 9.85782051282051 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 14.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": 18.85782051282051, "stressed_buffer": 15.85782051282051 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": 15.85782051282051, "stressed_buffer": 12.85782051282051 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Preserve numerical pass but withhold publication until this specific risk is resolved.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=GAZ100&warncounty=GAC031&firewxzone=GAZ100&local_place1=Statesboro GA&product1=Flood+Watch&lat=32.4424&lon=-81.7792", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:50:30.649710+00:00", "numericAdjustment": null, "notClaimed": "No assertion that the stadium is flooded or game canceled; coastal/flash warnings are area/time-specific." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Statesboro&state=GA&site=CHS&textField1=32.4424&textField2=-81.7792&e=1" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Statesboro&state=GA&site=CHS&textField1=32.4424&textField2=-81.7792&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:30:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2am and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Low around 69. Southeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 24, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401869949", "matchup": "James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern Eagles", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 51.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869949", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.436048+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.627949+00:00", "home_line": 7.5, "away_line": -7.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 250.0, "away_ml": -310.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": -5.438461538461539, "production_adjusted": 0.5615384615384613, "minimum_all_scenarios": -6.858333333333334, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "directional_buffer": 1.8671328671328737, "scenario_minimum": -4.132867132867126 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6234779381968991, "scenario_minimum": -4.376522061803101 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 0.5615384615384613, "scenario_minimum": -5.438461538461539 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 0.5615384615384613, "scenario_minimum": -5.438461538461539 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": -6.858333333333334, "stressed_buffer": -9.858333333333334 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 0.5615384615384613, "stressed_buffer": -2.4384615384615387 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": -2.4384615384615387, "stressed_buffer": -5.438461538461539 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": -2.4384615384615387, "stressed_buffer": -5.438461538461539 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": -5.438461538461539, "stressed_buffer": -8.438461538461539 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 14.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": -0.8583333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -3.8583333333333343 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": -3.8583333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -6.858333333333334 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 14.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": -3.8583333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -6.858333333333334 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": -6.858333333333334, "stressed_buffer": -9.858333333333334 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "currentMatchup": [ 34.3, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 5.839487179487179, -4.339487179487179 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "names": [ "Corey Scott" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "names": [ "Ashton Hollins" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "309", "side": "away", "player": "Darrell Smith", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ] }, { "teamId": "2348", "side": "home", "player": "Trey Kukuk", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 25.47272727272727, 25.84090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.47272727272727, 25.84090909090909 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 27.083333333333332, 30.0 ], "current_rates": [ 29.2, 19.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 27.666666666666668, 21.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 36.0, 29.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 29.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 29.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "309", "side": "away", "player": "Darrell Smith", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ] }, { "teamId": "2348", "side": "home", "player": "Trey Kukuk", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.083333333333332, "pa": 30.0, "margin": -2.916666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401761592", "401761600", "401752702", "401761610", "401761615", "401761625", "401761668", "401761638", "401761642", "401761648", "401761655", "401761665" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 29.2, "pa": 19.4, "margin": 9.8, "event_ids": [ "401869142", "401858445", "401862776", "401862780", "401869932" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.666666666666668, "pa": 21.333333333333332, "margin": 6.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401757221", "401752687", "401757257", "401757263", "401757272", "401757280", "401757286", "401757290", "401757295", "401752953", "401757307", "401757314" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36.0, "pa": 29.0, "margin": 7.0, "event_ids": [ "401869129", "401867796", "401867804", "401869842" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.208333333333332, 28.833333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 29.1, 27.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.6450000000000004, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trey Kukuk" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401869965", "matchup": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns", "names": [ "Darrell Smith" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "names": [ "Trey Kukuk" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Smith 30 carries/156 yards forms a material four-back committee with Reagan39, Garner27 and Blanco36 carries. OUT for season changes distributed rushing workload. Norris 2 catches is no automatic mainWR loss. | Kukuk top passer 73 attempts and 32 rushes QUESTIONABLE. Baker has 36 attempts/360 yards/four TD. One QB replacement -3 if unavailable; no second rushing penalty for Kukuk's 167 rushing yards.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 28.455000000000002, 30.411666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.208333333333332, 28.833333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.1, 27.7 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.6450000000000004, 2.1450000000000005 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 57, "def_drives": 53, "off_points_proxy": 147, "def_points_proxy": 69, "off_plays": 416, "off_yards": 2637, "def_plays": 365, "def_yards": 1852, "early_plays": 317, "early_yards": 1913, "explosive_plays": 39, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858445", "401862776", "401862780", "401869142", "401869932" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.5789473684210527, "def_ppd": 1.3018867924528301, "off_ypp": 6.3389423076923075, "def_ypp": 5.073972602739726, "early_down_ypp": 6.034700315457413 }, "home": { "off_drives": 51, "def_drives": 52, "off_points_proxy": 132, "def_points_proxy": 123, "off_plays": 308, "off_yards": 2007, "def_plays": 361, "def_yards": 1940, "early_plays": 225, "early_yards": 1377, "explosive_plays": 31, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867796", "401867804", "401869129", "401869842" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.588235294117647, "def_ppd": 2.3653846153846154, "off_ypp": 6.516233766233766, "def_ypp": 5.373961218836565, "early_down_ypp": 6.12 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 88. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Tonight Clear, with a low around 62. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph after midnight. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ruston&state=LA&site=SHV&textField1=32.5318&textField2=-92.6396&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trey Kukuk" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401869965", "matchup": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns", "names": [ "Darrell Smith" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. 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Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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"Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "conferenceReportKey": "Louisiana", "officialReport": { "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "posted": "Initial reports October 7-8; exact per-game timestamps retained below", "conference": "SB" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4871091", "name": "Lunch Winfield", "position": "QB", "workload": "83/110, 844 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/4871091/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5146661", "name": "Daniel Beale", "position": "QB", "workload": "5/8, 52 YDS, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5146661/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5227209", "name": "Anthony Reagan Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "39 CAR, 160 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5227209/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5222657", "name": "Darrell Smith", "position": "RB", "workload": "30 CAR, 156 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5222657/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5258999", "name": "JJ Garner", "position": "RB", "workload": "27 CAR, 154 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5258999/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5122096", "name": "KeDarius Wade", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 125 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5122096/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141364", "name": "Russell Babineaux", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5141364/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5221103", "name": "Landon Strother", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 97 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5221103/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5156928", "name": "Caden Jensen", "position": "TE", "workload": "10 REC, 110 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5156928/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5153377", "name": "Brock Chappell", "position": "TE", "workload": "9 REC, 100 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5153377/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Ja'Corian Norris", "id": "5197074", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "0/1, 0 YDS" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 4 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 21 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Jeremiah Birdlow", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Darrell Smith", "id": "5222657", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "30 CAR, 156 YDS, 2 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 9 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Smith 30 carries/156 yards forms a material four-back committee with Reagan39, Garner27 and Blanco36 carries. OUT for season changes distributed rushing workload. Norris 2 catches is no automatic mainWR loss.", "confirmed": [ "Darrell Smith" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Darrell Smith", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "Primary": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "TightenUpON": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Smith 30 carries/156 yards forms a material four-back committee with Reagan39, Garner27 and Blanco36 carries. OUT for season changes distributed rushing workload. Norris 2 catches is no automatic mainWR loss.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5222657", "name": "Darrell Smith", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/687", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "309", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5222657/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "309", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 7, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.3329999446868896, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5222657/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "309", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 30, "rushingYards": 156, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.199999809265137, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 9, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5222657/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "309" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5227209", "name": "Anthony Reagan Jr.", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/690", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "47", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 11, "rushingYards": 22, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5227209/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "47", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 122, "rushingYards": 671, "rushingTD": 9, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.5, "receptions": 24, "receivingYards": 202, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5227209/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "309", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 39, "rushingYards": 160, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.099999904632568, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 19, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5227209/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "47" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5258999", "name": "JJ Garner", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/774", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "309", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5258999/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "309", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5258999/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "309", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 27, "rushingYards": 154, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.699999809265137, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 10, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5258999/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "309" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5194804", "name": "Steven Blanco", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/775", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "309", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5194804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "309", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 26, "rushingYards": 144, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.538000106811523, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 29, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5194804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "309", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 36, "rushingYards": 124, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.4000000953674316, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 20, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5194804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "309" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Darrell Smith", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "JJ Garner", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "JJ Garner", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Steven Blanco", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/309/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Norris two catches and one carry, versus main receivers14/9/7 and four backs27-39 carries; no main-role deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401869965", "teamId": "2348", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "side": "home", "opponent": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns", "conferenceReportKey": "Louisiana Tech", "officialReport": { "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "posted": "Initial reports October 7-8; exact per-game timestamps retained below", "conference": "SB" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5296376", "name": "Trey Kukuk", "position": "QB", "workload": "48/73, 468 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/5296376/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5150998", "name": "Blake Baker", "position": "QB", "workload": "21/36, 360 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/5150998/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5296386", "name": "Dylone Brooks", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 169 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/5296386/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5296374", "name": "Andrew Burnette", "position": "RB", "workload": "29 CAR, 122 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/5296374/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5382987", "name": "Jaden Miller", "position": "RB", "workload": "19 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/5382987/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5218381", "name": "Jalen Mickens", "position": "WR", "workload": "21 REC, 342 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/5218381/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685517", "name": "Talyn Shettron", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/4685517/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4431484", "name": "Jay Wilkerson", "position": "WR", "workload": "3 REC, 42 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/4431484/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5121453", "name": "Eli Finley", "position": "TE", "workload": "18 REC, 211 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/5121453/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5296401", "name": "Brayden Bockler", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 7 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/5296401/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Trey Kukuk", "id": "5296376", "position": "QB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "48/73, 468 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "32 CAR, 167 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Dane Benedix", "id": "5296400", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Kukuk top passer 73 attempts and 32 rushes QUESTIONABLE. Baker has 36 attempts/360 yards/four TD. One QB replacement -3 if unavailable; no second rushing penalty for Kukuk's 167 rushing yards.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Trey Kukuk" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Trey Kukuk", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 25.47272727272727, 25.84090909090909 ], "Primary": [ 20.337086592900178, 28.446753974691667 ], "TightenUpON": [ 26.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 26.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Kukuk top passer 73 attempts and 32 rushes QUESTIONABLE. Baker has 36 attempts/360 yards/four TD. One QB replacement -3 if unavailable; no second rushing penalty for Kukuk's 167 rushing yards.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.47272727272727, 25.84090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.337086592900178, 28.446753974691667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5296376", "name": "Trey Kukuk", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/676", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2348", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5296376/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2348", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 86, "passingYards": 526, "passingTD": 2, "interceptions": 3, "sacks": 6, "completionPct": 66.27899932861328, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.116000175476074, "rushAttempts": 79, "rushingYards": 488, "rushingTD": 5, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.177000045776367, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 49, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5296376/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2348", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 73, "passingYards": 468, "passingTD": 3, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 1, "completionPct": 65.80000305175781, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.400000095367432, "rushAttempts": 32, "rushingYards": 167, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.199999809265137, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5296376/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2348" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5150998", "name": "Blake Baker", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/677", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2348", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 34, "passingYards": 314, "passingTD": 1, "interceptions": 3, "sacks": 4, "completionPct": 52.941001892089844, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 9.234999656677246, "rushAttempts": 17, "rushingYards": 11, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0.6470000147819519, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5150998/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2348", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 155, "passingYards": 1251, "passingTD": 5, "interceptions": 3, "sacks": 8, "completionPct": 65.80599975585938, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8.071000099182129, "rushAttempts": 73, "rushingYards": 260, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.562000036239624, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": -5, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5150998/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2348", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 36, "passingYards": 360, "passingTD": 4, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 8, "completionPct": 58.29999923706055, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 10, "rushAttempts": 13, "rushingYards": -26, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -2, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5150998/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2348" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5222150", "name": "Joshua Brantley", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/776", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2348", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5222150/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2655", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5222150/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2348", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 16, "passingTD": 1, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 16, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5222150/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2348", "2655" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Trey Kukuk", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Joshua Brantley", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Joshua Brantley", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trey Kukuk" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2348/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.47272727272727, 25.84090909090909 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.337086592900178, 28.446753974691667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 28.455000000000002, 30.411666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.208333333333332, 28.833333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.1, 27.7 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.6450000000000004, 2.1450000000000005 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "market": { "id": "401869965", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869965", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.465743+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.690250+00:00", "home_line": -3.0, "away_line": 3.0, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -102.0, "under_price": -118.0, "home_ml": -155.0, "away_ml": 130.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -3.0, "average_total": 48.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 3.368181818181821, "combined": 54.31363636363636, "spread_buffer": 0.36818181818182083, "total_difference": 5.813636363636363 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.368181818181821, "combined": 51.31363636363636, "spread_buffer": 3.368181818181821, "total_difference": 2.8136363636363626 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 11.109667381791489, "combined": 51.783840567591845, "spread_buffer": 8.109667381791489, "total_difference": 3.283840567591845 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 14.109667381791489, "combined": 48.783840567591845, "spread_buffer": 11.109667381791489, "total_difference": 0.28384056759184517 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; 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Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "names": [ "Trey Kukuk" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ruston&state=LA&site=SHV&textField1=32.5318&textField2=-92.6396&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:30:00-05:00", "window": "Clear, with a low around 62. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph after midnight.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trey Kukuk" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401869965", "matchup": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 48.5, "price": -102.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869965", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.465743+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.690250+00:00", "home_line": -3.0, "away_line": 3.0, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -102.0, "under_price": -118.0, "home_ml": -155.0, "away_ml": 130.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 7.920833333333334, "production_adjusted": 4.920833333333334, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.9208333333333343, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "directional_buffer": 2.8136363636363626, "scenario_minimum": -0.1863636363636374 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "directional_buffer": 0.28384056759184517, "scenario_minimum": -2.716159432408155 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 4.920833333333334, "scenario_minimum": 1.9208333333333343 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 4.920833333333334, "scenario_minimum": 1.9208333333333343 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 23.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 1.9208333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -1.0791666666666657 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 23.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 1.9208333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -1.0791666666666657 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 4.920833333333334, "stressed_buffer": 1.9208333333333343 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 4.920833333333334, "stressed_buffer": 1.9208333333333343 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 7.920833333333334, "stressed_buffer": 4.920833333333334 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.455000000000002, 27.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 4.366666666666667, "stressed_buffer": 1.3666666666666671 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.455000000000002, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 7.366666666666667, "stressed_buffer": 4.366666666666667 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.455000000000002, 27.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 7.366666666666667, "stressed_buffer": 4.366666666666667 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.455000000000002, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 10.366666666666667, "stressed_buffer": 7.366666666666667 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 28.455000000000002, 30.411666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.208333333333332, 28.833333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.1, 27.7 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.6450000000000004, 2.1450000000000005 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns", "names": [ "Darrell Smith" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "names": [ "Trey Kukuk" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ruston&state=LA&site=SHV&textField1=32.5318&textField2=-92.6396&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:30:00-05:00", "window": "Clear, with a low around 62. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph after midnight.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trey Kukuk" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892479", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892479", "date": "2026-10-10T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "7226", "fullName": "UBS Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Elmont", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "20", "away_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "12", "home_name": "New York Islanders", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.9940040650406505, 2.9160569105691057 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.9940040650406505, 2.9160569105691057 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.9940040650406505, 2.9160569105691057 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.5365853658536586, 2.817073170731707 ], "current_rates": [ 2.75, 2.25 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 2.841463414634146, 2.9390243902439024 ], "current_rates": [ 3.25, 2.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.0841286348186348, 2.7538001012828808 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0841286348186348, 2.7538001012828808 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0841286348186348, 2.7538001012828808 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.4878, "pa": 2.79268, "official_team_id": 14 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 2 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.4878, "pa": 2.79268, "official_team_id": 14 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 2 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "New York Islanders: Bo Horvat Day-To-Day, Alexander Romanov Out, Mathew Barzal Injured Reserve | Tampa Bay Lightning: Emil Lilleberg Out, Yanni Gourde Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892479", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.990735+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.198313+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892479", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.990735+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.198313+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Tampa Bay Lightning; Primary: Tampa Bay Lightning; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Tampa Bay Lightning; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Tampa Bay Lightning. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -0.39024 to -0.077947. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.2434497875801753 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892479", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.2434497875801753e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 2.9940040650406505, 2.9160569105691057 ], "Primary": [ 3.0841286348186348, 2.7538001012828808 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 07:30 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020081, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:30:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/TBL/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "previousEventId": "401892460", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Minnesota Wild", "previousVenue": { "id": "1396", "fullName": "Benchmark International Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Tampa", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to UBS Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "New York Islanders", "previousEventId": "401892462", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "previousOpponent": "Chicago Blackhawks", "previousVenue": { "id": "7226", "fullName": "UBS Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Elmont", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to UBS Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at UBS Arena; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/TBL/20262027", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892479" ], "tu": { "id": "401892479", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892479", "date": "2026-10-10T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "7226", "fullName": "UBS Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Elmont", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "20", "away_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "12", "home_name": "New York Islanders", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.4878, "pa": 2.79268, "official_team_id": 14 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 2 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.1829200000000002, 5.18292 ], "home": [ 0.7926799999999998, 4.79268 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders", "market": { "id": "401892479", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892479", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.474296+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.694296+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -192.0, "away_line_price": 160.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -108.0, "home_ml": 142.0, "away_ml": -170.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.07794715447154488, "combined": 5.910060975609756, "spread_buffer": 1.4220528455284551, "total_difference": 0.4100609756097562 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.07794715447154488, "combined": 5.910060975609756, "spread_buffer": 1.4220528455284551, "total_difference": 0.4100609756097562 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.330328533535754, "combined": 5.8379287361015155, "spread_buffer": 1.169671466464246, "total_difference": 0.3379287361015155 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.330328533535754, "combined": 5.8379287361015155, "spread_buffer": 1.169671466464246, "total_difference": 0.3379287361015155 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.39024000000000036, "combined": 5.9756, "spread_buffer": 1.1097599999999996, "total_difference": 0.4756 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.39024000000000036, "combined": 5.9756, "spread_buffer": 1.1097599999999996, "total_difference": 0.4756 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.39024000000000036, "combined": 5.9756, "spread_buffer": 1.1097599999999996, "total_difference": 0.4756 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.39024000000000036, "combined": 5.9756, "spread_buffer": 1.1097599999999996, "total_difference": 0.4756 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "761847", "sport": "MLS", "identity": { "id": "761847", "date": "2026-10-10T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 13846, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLS", "venue": { "id": "10661", "fullName": "Nu Stadium", "indoor": null, "address": { "city": "Miami, Florida", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "193", "away_name": "D.C. United", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "20232", "home_name": "Inter Miami CF", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 3 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T23:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Nu Stadium" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 106. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Tonight A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 2am and 5am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 80. Southeast wind around 9 mph. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/miavsdc-10-10-2026/clubs", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/" ], "other_review": { "trades": [ { "player": "Nathan Ordaz", "position": "F", "date": "2026-07-13", "team": "D.C. United", "team_id": "193", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "LAFC", "counterparty_id": "18966", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "F - Nathan Ordaz (7/13/26 - trade from LAFC)", "roster_identity": { "id": "340613", "name": "Nathan Ordaz", "roster_team": "D.C. United", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/193/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/340613/stats?team=193&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-340613-193.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "193", "stats": { "STRT": "4", "FC": "6", "FA": "6", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "2", "SHOT": "5", "SOG": "2", "OF": "1" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Sean Johnson", "Kye Rowles", "Lucas Bartlett", "Keisuke Kurokawa", "Silvan Hefti", "Andre Dozzell", "Jackson Hopkins", "Hosei Kijima", "Kimito Nono", "Jo\u00e3o Peglow", "Nathan Ordaz" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761842", "date": "2026-09-27T02:30Z", "name": "D.C. United at Vancouver Whitecaps" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761842", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "340613", "name": "Nathan Ordaz", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "6", "post_trade_starts": "4", "post_last_match_role": "starter", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 89, "documented_new_team_starts": "4", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": "6", "post_trade_starts": "4", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 2.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 2.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Finishing, shot creation and pressing starts", "direction": "New role can displace reference XI opportunities", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.331323+00:00" }, { "player": "Gabriel Pirani", "position": "M", "date": "2026-07-09", "team": "D.C. 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Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Progression, passing and chance creation", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.331323+00:00" }, { "player": "Caden Clark", "position": "M", "date": "2026-09-03", "team": "D.C. 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United at Vancouver Whitecaps" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761842", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "302991", "name": "Caden Clark", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "0", "post_trade_starts": "1", "post_last_match_role": "substitute/bench", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 37, "documented_new_team_starts": "1", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": "0", "post_trade_starts": "1", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. 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Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Progression, passing and chance creation", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.331323+00:00" } ], "references": { "away": { "teamId": "193", "team": "D.C. United", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/193/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761842", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:24.115840+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.029870+00:00", "event": { "id": "761842", "date": "2026-09-27T02:30Z", "name": "D.C. United at Vancouver Whitecaps" }, "referenceXI": [ "Sean Johnson", "Kye Rowles", "Lucas Bartlett", "Keisuke Kurokawa", "Silvan Hefti", "Andre Dozzell", "Jackson Hopkins", "Hosei Kijima", "Kimito Nono", "Jo\u00e3o Peglow", "Nathan Ordaz" ], "formation": "4-4-2", "roster": [ { "id": "141316", "name": "Sean Johnson", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "saves": 6.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "228416", "name": "Kye Rowles", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "333699", "name": "Lucas Bartlett", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "288348", "name": "Keisuke Kurokawa", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "227891", "name": "Silvan Hefti", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "227789", "name": "Andre Dozzell", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "324048", "name": "Jackson Hopkins", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center 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"shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "217514", "name": "Alex Bono", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "269158", "name": "Brandon Servania", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "271884", "name": "Jared Stroud", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "230822", "name": "Sean Nealis", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "336970", "name": "Gavin Turner", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "273974", "name": "Conner Antley", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "3118753", "name": "Kamil Efra\u00edm Castillo Reynoso", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "418069", "name": "Nikola Markovic", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 3.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "410619", "name": "Grant Leveille", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." }, "home": { "teamId": "20232", "team": "Inter Miami CF", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/20232/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761844", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:24.972224+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.475983+00:00", "event": { "id": "761844", "date": "2026-09-27T23:00Z", "name": "Inter Miami CF at Columbus Crew" }, "referenceXI": [ "Rocco R\u00edos Novo", "Casemiro", "Micael", "Gonzalo Luj\u00e1n", "Yannick Bright", "Rodrigo De Paul", "Sergio Reguil\u00f3n", "Facundo Mura", "Luis Su\u00e1rez", "D\u00e1niel Pint\u00e9r", "Lionel Messi" ], "formation": "3-4-3", "roster": [ { "id": "297047", "name": "Rocco R\u00edos Novo", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "saves": 4.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "173666", "name": "Casemiro", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "314952", "name": "Micael", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 3.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "315617", "name": "Gonzalo Luj\u00e1n", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 4.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "329025", "name": "Yannick Bright", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "174466", "name": "Rodrigo De Paul", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "231241", "name": "Sergio Reguil\u00f3n", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 3.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "285473", "name": "Facundo Mura", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "125088", "name": "Luis Su\u00e1rez", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "399970", "name": "D\u00e1niel Pint\u00e9r", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "45843", "name": "Lionel Messi", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 2.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 3.0 } }, { "id": "399951", "name": "Cesar Abadia-Reda", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "310279", "name": "Maximiliano Falc\u00f3n", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "256444", "name": "Luis Barraza", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "361433", "name": "Riquelme", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "399946", "name": "Idoh Zeltzer-Zubida", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "199032", "name": "Santiago Morales", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 1.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "290715", "name": "David Ayala", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "401415", "name": "Daniel Sumalla", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "401414", "name": "Preston Plambeck", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "D.C. United at Inter Miami CF", "market": { "id": "761847", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761847", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.531879+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.725617+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -130.0, "total": 3.5, "under_line": 3.5, "over_price": -145.0, "under_price": 115.0, "home_ml": -240.0, "away_ml": 475.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "draw_ml": 400.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "moneyline_scope": "Regulation three-way including draw" } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 3.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "761848", "sport": "MLS", "identity": { "id": "761848", "date": "2026-10-10T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 13846, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLS", "venue": { "id": "6971", "fullName": "Inter&Co Stadium", "indoor": null, "address": { "city": "Orlando, Florida", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "183", "away_name": "Columbus Crew", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "12011", "home_name": "Orlando City SC", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 4 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T23:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Inter&Co Stadium" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 102. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/orlvsclb-10-10-2026/clubs", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/" ], "other_review": { "trades": [ { "player": "Aliyu Ibrahim", "position": "F", "date": "2026-03-12", "team": "Columbus Crew", "team_id": "183", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "Houston Dynamo FC", "counterparty_id": "6077", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "F - Aliyu Ibrahim (3/12/26 - trade to Houston Dynamo FC)", "roster_identity": { "id": "287444", "name": "Ibrahim Aliyu", "roster_team": "Houston Dynamo FC", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/6077/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/287444/stats?team=183&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-287444-183.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "183", "stats": { "STRT": "12", "FC": "22", "FA": "6", "YC": "2", "RC": "0", "G": "3", "A": "2", "SHOT": "24", "SOG": "6", "OF": "18" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "183", "stats": { "STRT": "0", "FC": "0", "FA": "0", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Patrick Schulte", "Sean Zawadzki", "Malte Amundsen", "Eric Bailly", "Taha Habroune", "Dylan Chambost", "Anass Zaroury", "Mohamed Farsi", "Josef Mart\u00ednez", "Santiago Rodr\u00edguez", "Brais M\u00e9ndez" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761844", "date": "2026-09-27T23:00Z", "name": "Inter Miami CF at Columbus Crew" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761844", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "287444", "name": "Ibrahim Aliyu", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": null, "post_trade_starts": "5", "post_last_match_role": "starter", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 212, "documented_new_team_starts": "5", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": null, "post_trade_starts": "5", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": null, "post_goals_plus_assists": 2.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Finishing, shot creation and pressing starts", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.330314+00:00" }, { "player": "Yevhen Cheberko", "position": "D", "date": "2026-06-09", "team": "Columbus Crew", "team_id": "183", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "LAFC", "counterparty_id": "18966", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "D - Yevhen Cheberko (6/9/26 - trade to LAFC)", "roster_identity": { "id": "264469", "name": "Yevhen Cheberko", "roster_team": "LAFC", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/18966/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/264469/stats?team=183&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-264469-183.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "183", "stats": { "STRT": "0", "FC": "1", "FA": "0", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "183", "stats": { "STRT": "25", "FC": "25", "FA": "27", "YC": "2", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "7", "SOG": "0", "OF": "1" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "183", "stats": { "STRT": "0", "FC": "0", "FA": "0", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "183", "stats": { "STRT": "17", "FC": "9", "FA": "15", "YC": "4", "RC": "0", "G": "1", "A": "0", "SHOT": "6", "SOG": "1", "OF": "4" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "183", "stats": { "STRT": "2", "FC": "0", "FA": "4", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "1", "SOG": "0", "OF": "1" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Patrick Schulte", "Sean Zawadzki", "Malte Amundsen", "Eric Bailly", "Taha Habroune", "Dylan Chambost", "Anass Zaroury", "Mohamed Farsi", "Josef Mart\u00ednez", "Santiago Rodr\u00edguez", "Brais M\u00e9ndez" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761844", "date": "2026-09-27T23:00Z", "name": "Inter Miami CF at Columbus Crew" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761844", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "264469", "name": "Yevhen Cheberko", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "0", "post_trade_starts": "13", "post_last_match_role": "starter", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 123, "documented_new_team_starts": "13", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": "0", "post_trade_starts": "13", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 1.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Build-up width and set-piece contribution", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Space/duel coverage and line coordination", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.331323+00:00" }, { "player": "Duncan McGuire", "position": "F", "date": "2026-07-10", "team": "Orlando City SC", "team_id": "12011", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "Houston Dynamo FC", "counterparty_id": "6077", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "F - Duncan McGuire (7/10/26 - trade to Houston Dynamo FC)", "roster_identity": { "id": "294071", "name": "Duncan McGuire", "roster_team": "Houston Dynamo FC", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/6077/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/294071/stats?team=12011&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-294071-12011.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "12011", "stats": { "STRT": "4", "FC": "6", "FA": "6", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "2", "A": "0", "SHOT": "10", "SOG": "7", "OF": "3" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "12011", "stats": { "STRT": "6", "FC": "8", "FA": "12", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "3", "A": "2", "SHOT": "20", "SOG": "5", "OF": "5" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "12011", "stats": { "STRT": "1", "FC": "0", "FA": "1", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "1", "SOG": "1", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "12011", "stats": { "STRT": "18", "FC": "13", "FA": "18", "YC": "7", "RC": "0", "G": "10", "A": "3", "SHOT": "44", "SOG": "21", "OF": "1" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "12011", "stats": { "STRT": "0", "FC": "0", "FA": "2", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "3", "SOG": "0", "OF": "1" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Maxime Cr\u00e9peau", "Robin Jansson", "Iago Teodoro", "Bernardo Rhein Goncalves", "Zakaria Taifi", "Joran Gerbet", "Eduard Atuesta", "Daryl Dike", "Antoine Griezmann", "Iv\u00e1n Angulo", "Mart\u00edn Ojeda" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761834", "date": "2026-09-26T23:30Z", "name": "Orlando City SC at Philadelphia Union" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761834", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "294071", "name": "Duncan McGuire", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "4", "post_trade_starts": "5", "post_last_match_role": "substitute/bench", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 92, "documented_new_team_starts": "5", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": "4", "post_trade_starts": "5", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 2.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Finishing, shot creation and pressing starts", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.343762+00:00" }, { "player": "Tahir Reid-Brown", "position": "D", "date": "2026-08-13", "team": "Orlando City SC", "team_id": "12011", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "St. Louis CITY SC", "counterparty_id": "21812", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "D - Tahir Reid-Brown (8/13/26 - trade to St. Louis CITY SC)", "roster_identity": { "id": "376511", "name": "Tahir Reid-Brown", "roster_team": "St. Louis CITY SC", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/21812/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/376511/stats?team=12011&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-376511-12011.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "12011", "stats": { "STRT": "2", "FC": "3", "FA": "4", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "12011", "stats": { "STRT": "0", "FC": "0", "FA": "0", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Maxime Cr\u00e9peau", "Robin Jansson", "Iago Teodoro", "Bernardo Rhein Goncalves", "Zakaria Taifi", "Joran Gerbet", "Eduard Atuesta", "Daryl Dike", "Antoine Griezmann", "Iv\u00e1n Angulo", "Mart\u00edn Ojeda" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761834", "date": "2026-09-26T23:30Z", "name": "Orlando City SC at Philadelphia Union" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761834", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "2", "post_trade_starts": null, "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 58, "documented_new_team_starts": null, "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": "2", "post_trade_starts": null, "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. 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Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Build-up width and set-piece contribution", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Space/duel coverage and line coordination", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.343762+00:00" } ], "references": { "away": { "teamId": "183", "team": "Columbus Crew", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/183/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761844", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:24.115840+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.034491+00:00", "event": { "id": "761844", "date": "2026-09-27T23:00Z", "name": "Inter Miami CF at Columbus Crew" }, "referenceXI": [ "Patrick Schulte", "Sean Zawadzki", "Malte Amundsen", "Eric Bailly", "Taha Habroune", "Dylan Chambost", "Anass Zaroury", "Mohamed Farsi", "Josef Mart\u00ednez", "Santiago Rodr\u00edguez", "Brais M\u00e9ndez" ], "formation": "3-4-3", "roster": [ { "id": "275080", "name": "Patrick Schulte", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "saves": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "296221", "name": "Sean Zawadzki", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "271075", "name": "Malte Amundsen", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "212342", "name": "Eric Bailly", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "362812", "name": "Taha Habroune", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 3.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "270189", "name": "Dylan Chambost", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 3.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "323725", "name": "Anass Zaroury", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 4.0 } }, { "id": "317021", "name": "Mohamed Farsi", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "172688", "name": "Josef Mart\u00ednez", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "83178", "name": "Santiago Rodr\u00edguez", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 6.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "262729", "name": "Brais M\u00e9ndez", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 3.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 4.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 4.0 } }, { "id": "3106012", "name": "Tarun Karumanchi", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "252778", "name": "Brooks Lennon", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "392011", "name": "Cesar Ruvalcaba", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 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false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "197351", "name": "Jamal Thiar\u00e9", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 3.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." }, "home": { "teamId": "12011", "team": "Orlando City SC", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/12011/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761834", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.068874+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.505282+00:00", "event": { "id": "761834", "date": "2026-09-26T23:30Z", "name": "Orlando City SC at Philadelphia Union" }, "referenceXI": [ "Maxime Cr\u00e9peau", "Robin Jansson", "Iago Teodoro", "Bernardo Rhein Goncalves", "Zakaria Taifi", "Joran Gerbet", "Eduard Atuesta", "Daryl Dike", "Antoine Griezmann", "Iv\u00e1n Angulo", "Mart\u00edn Ojeda" ], "formation": "4-2-2-2", "roster": [ { "id": "159382", "name": "Maxime Cr\u00e9peau", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, 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"totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "390621", "name": "Joran Gerbet", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 4.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 4.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "241473", "name": "Eduard Atuesta", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 3.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 4.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "294211", "name": "Daryl Dike", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 3.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 4.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "140416", "name": "Antoine Griezmann", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 4.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 3.0 } }, { "id": "250448", "name": "Iv\u00e1n Angulo", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Attacking Midfielder Left", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 4.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "233401", "name": "Mart\u00edn Ojeda", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Attacking Midfielder Right", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 4.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 4.0 } }, { "id": "349254", "name": "Nolan Miller", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, 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1.0 } }, { "id": "210228", "name": "Adri\u00e1n Mar\u00edn", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "418358", "name": "Harvey Sarajian", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "356098", "name": "Gustavo Caraballo", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "316317", "name": "Javier Otero", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "399945", "name": "Justin Hylton", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "382896", "name": "Luis Ot\u00e1vio", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "Columbus Crew at Orlando City SC", "market": { "id": "761848", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761848", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.545318+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.750529+00:00", "home_line": -0.5, "away_line": 0.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -125.0, "total": 3.5, "under_line": 3.5, "over_price": 100.0, "under_price": -125.0, "home_ml": -105.0, "away_ml": 220.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "draw_ml": 295.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "moneyline_scope": "Regulation three-way including draw" } ], "average_home_line": -0.5, "average_total": 3.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "761849", "sport": "MLS", "identity": { "id": "761849", "date": "2026-10-10T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 13846, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLS", "venue": { "id": "4061", "fullName": "Subaru Park", "indoor": null, "address": { "city": "Chester, Pennsylvania", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "4771", "away_name": "Real Salt Lake", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "10739", "home_name": "Philadelphia Union", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 5 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T23:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Subaru Park" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the morning. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 5 mph. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/phivsrsl-10-10-2026/clubs", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/" ], "other_review": { "trades": [ { "player": "Saba Lobjanidze", "position": "F", "date": "2026-07-01", "team": "Real Salt Lake", "team_id": "4771", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "Atlanta United", "counterparty_id": "18418", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "F - Saba Lobjanidze (7/1/26 - trade from Atlanta United)", "roster_identity": { "id": "221128", "name": "Saba Lobjanidze", "roster_team": "Real Salt Lake", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/4771/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/221128/stats?team=4771&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-221128-4771.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "4771", "stats": { "STRT": "3", "FC": "1", "FA": "2", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "2", "A": "3", "SHOT": "13", "SOG": "7", "OF": "1" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Rafael", "Philip Quinton", "Kobi Henry", "DeAndre Yedlin", "Noel Caliskan", "Stijn Spierings", "Samuel Junqua", "Dominik Marczuk", "Sergi Solans", "Morgan Guilavogui", "Aiden Hezarkhani" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761840", "date": "2026-09-27T01:30Z", "name": "New England Revolution at Real Salt Lake" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761840", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "8", "post_trade_starts": "3", "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 101, "documented_new_team_starts": "3", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": "8", "post_trade_starts": "3", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. 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Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.343762+00:00" }, { "player": "Nelson Palacio", "position": "M", "date": "2026-07-06", "team": "Real Salt Lake", "team_id": "4771", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "Toronto FC", "counterparty_id": "7318", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "M - Nelson Palacio (7/6/26 - trade to Toronto FC)", "roster_identity": { "id": "82716", "name": "Nelson Palacio", "roster_team": "Toronto FC", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/7318/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/82716/stats?team=4771&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-82716-4771.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "4771", "stats": { "STRT": "6", "FC": "11", "FA": "5", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "9", "SOG": "2", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "4771", "stats": { "STRT": "5", "FC": "10", "FA": "11", "YC": "2", "RC": "0", "G": "1", "A": "1", "SHOT": "8", "SOG": "2", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "4771", "stats": { "STRT": "1", "FC": "0", "FA": "0", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "1" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Rafael", "Philip Quinton", "Kobi Henry", "DeAndre Yedlin", "Noel Caliskan", "Stijn Spierings", "Samuel Junqua", "Dominik Marczuk", "Sergi Solans", "Morgan Guilavogui", "Aiden Hezarkhani" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761840", "date": "2026-09-27T01:30Z", "name": "New England Revolution at Real Salt Lake" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761840", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Nelson Palacio - Thigh (Out)" ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": null, "post_trade_starts": null, "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 96, "documented_new_team_starts": null, "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": null, "post_trade_starts": null, "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. 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New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 1.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Progression, passing and chance creation", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.351551+00:00" } ], "references": { "away": { "teamId": "4771", "team": "Real Salt Lake", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/4771/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761840", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.478991+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.991719+00:00", "event": { "id": "761840", "date": "2026-09-27T01:30Z", "name": "New England Revolution at Real Salt Lake" }, "referenceXI": [ "Rafael", "Philip Quinton", "Kobi Henry", "DeAndre Yedlin", "Noel Caliskan", "Stijn Spierings", "Samuel Junqua", "Dominik Marczuk", "Sergi Solans", "Morgan Guilavogui", "Aiden Hezarkhani" ], "formation": "3-4-3", "roster": [ { "id": "134307", "name": "Rafael", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 4.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "294874", "name": "Philip Quinton", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "304126", "name": "Kobi Henry", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "183778", "name": "DeAndre Yedlin", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "362114", "name": "Noel Caliskan", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "216288", "name": "Stijn Spierings", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "256489", "name": "Samuel Junqua", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 3.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "364658", "name": "Dominik Marczuk", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "418187", "name": "Sergi Solans", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 3.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 4.0, "totalGoals": 2.0, "totalShots": 5.0 } }, { "id": "305777", "name": "Morgan Guilavogui", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 4.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "399190", "name": "Aiden Hezarkhani", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "3143550", "name": "Linkon Ream", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "296109", "name": "Emeka Eneli", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "265872", "name": "Taylor Booth", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "377091", "name": "Liam O'Gara", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "314665", "name": "Jason Shokalook", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "388445", "name": "Colin Guske", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "231193", "name": "Mason Stajduhar", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "400330", "name": "Max Kerkvliet", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "401803", "name": "Lineker Rodrigues", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." }, "home": { "teamId": "10739", "team": "Philadelphia Union", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/10739/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761834", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.462529+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.896120+00:00", "event": { "id": "761834", "date": "2026-09-26T23:30Z", "name": "Orlando City SC at Philadelphia Union" }, "referenceXI": [ "Andrew Rick", "Nathan Harriel", "Japhet Sery", "Kai Wagner", "Ben Bender", "Jovan Lukic", "Jes\u00fas Bueno", "Indiana Vassilev", "Quinn Sullivan", "Bruno Damiani", "Milan Iloski" ], "formation": "4-4-2", "roster": [ { "id": "365853", "name": "Andrew Rick", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "286778", "name": "Nathan Harriel", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "288688", "name": "Japhet Sery", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "261317", "name": "Kai Wagner", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "288060", "name": "Ben Bender", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 3.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "322063", "name": "Jovan Lukic", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "271536", "name": "Jes\u00fas Bueno", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 3.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "266026", "name": "Indiana Vassilev", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 2.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 2.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 3.0 } }, { "id": "304130", "name": "Quinn Sullivan", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 2.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 3.0 } }, { "id": "322680", "name": "Bruno Damiani", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 4.0, "foulsSuffered": 4.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "263585", "name": "Milan Iloski", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 3.0, "totalGoals": 3.0, "totalShots": 6.0 } }, { "id": "418595", "name": "Geiner Mart\u00ednez", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "403770", "name": "Jordan Griffin", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "399426", "name": "Ezekiel Alladoh", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 2.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 3.0 } }, { "id": "362911", "name": "Rafael Uzc\u00e1tegui", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "255097", "name": "George Marks", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "384323", "name": "Finn Sundstrom", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "274002", "name": "Jeremy Rafanello", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "364774", "name": "Augustin Anello", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "134066", "name": "Alejandro Bedoya", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "Real Salt Lake at Philadelphia Union", "market": { "id": "761849", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761849", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.600391+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.786387+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -120.0, "total": 3.5, "under_line": 3.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -120.0, "home_ml": -285.0, "away_ml": 550.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "draw_ml": 425.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "moneyline_scope": "Regulation three-way including draw" } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 3.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "761850", "sport": "MLS", "identity": { "id": "761850", "date": "2026-10-10T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 13846, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLS", "venue": { "id": "7485", "fullName": "Mercedes-Benz Stadium", "indoor": null, "address": { "city": "Atlanta, Georgia", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "18267", "away_name": "FC Cincinnati", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "18418", "home_name": "Atlanta United FC", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 2 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T23:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Mercedes-Benz Stadium" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 74. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 61. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/atlvscin-10-10-2026/clubs", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/" ], "other_review": { "trades": [ { "player": "Saba Lobjanidze", "position": "F", "date": "2026-07-01", "team": "Atlanta United FC", "team_id": "18418", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "Real Salt Lake", "counterparty_id": "4771", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "F - Saba Lobjanidze (7/1/26 - trade to Real Salt Lake)", "roster_identity": { "id": "221128", "name": "Saba Lobjanidze", "roster_team": "Real Salt Lake", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/4771/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/221128/stats?team=18418&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-221128-18418.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "18418", "stats": { "STRT": "8", "FC": "4", "FA": "1", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "2", "A": "0", "SHOT": "24", "SOG": "11", "OF": "4" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "18418", "stats": { "STRT": "23", "FC": "4", "FA": "10", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "7", "SHOT": "38", "SOG": "12", "OF": "6" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "18418", "stats": { "STRT": "29", "FC": "5", "FA": "5", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "9", "A": "7", "SHOT": "82", "SOG": "25", "OF": "4" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "18418", "stats": { "STRT": "5", "FC": "1", "FA": "2", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "1", "A": "0", "SHOT": "9", "SOG": "4", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Lucas Hoyos", "Enea Mihaj", "Tom\u00e1s Jacob", "El\u00edas Baez", "Matt Edwards", "Mauricio Amaro", "Tristan Muyumba", "Giuliano Galoppo", "Breel Embolo", "Cooper Sanchez", "Luke Brennan" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761830", "date": "2026-09-26T23:30Z", "name": "New York City FC at Atlanta United FC" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761830", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "8", "post_trade_starts": "3", "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 101, "documented_new_team_starts": "3", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": "8", "post_trade_starts": "3", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 2.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 5.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Finishing, shot creation and pressing starts", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.321220+00:00" }, { "player": "Ronald Hern\u00e1ndez", "position": "D", "date": "2026-09-02", "team": "Atlanta United FC", "team_id": "18418", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "Portland Timbers", "counterparty_id": "9723", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "D - Ronald Hern\u00e1ndez (9/2/26 - trade to Portland Timbers)", "roster_identity": { "id": "240783", "name": "Ronald Hern\u00e1ndez", "roster_team": "Portland Timbers", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/9723/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/240783/stats?team=18418&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-240783-18418.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "18418", "stats": { "STRT": "2", "FC": "10", "FA": "3", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "18418", "stats": { "STRT": "16", "FC": "16", "FA": "16", "YC": "3", "RC": "0", "G": "1", "A": "1", "SHOT": "7", "SOG": "2", "OF": "1" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "18418", "stats": { "STRT": "7", "FC": "8", "FA": "7", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "1", "SHOT": "10", "SOG": "2", "OF": "4" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "18418", "stats": { "STRT": "3", "FC": "2", "FA": "2", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Lucas Hoyos", "Enea Mihaj", "Tom\u00e1s Jacob", "El\u00edas Baez", "Matt Edwards", "Mauricio Amaro", "Tristan Muyumba", "Giuliano Galoppo", "Breel Embolo", "Cooper Sanchez", "Luke Brennan" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761830", "date": "2026-09-26T23:30Z", "name": "New York City FC at Atlanta United FC" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761830", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "240783", "name": "Ronald Hern\u00e1ndez", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "2", "post_trade_starts": "3", "post_last_match_role": "starter", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 38, "documented_new_team_starts": "3", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": "2", "post_trade_starts": "3", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Build-up width and set-piece contribution", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Space/duel coverage and line coordination", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.321833+00:00" } ], "references": { "away": { "teamId": "18267", "team": "FC Cincinnati", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/18267/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761831", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:24.115840+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:24.982159+00:00", "event": { "id": "761831", "date": "2026-09-26T23:30Z", "name": "FC Cincinnati at CF Montr\u00e9al" }, "referenceXI": [ "Roman Celentano", "Nick Hagglund", "Teenage Hadebe", "Samuel Gidi", "Obinna Nwobodo", "Gerardo Valenzuela", "Evander", "Bryan Ramirez", "Kenji Mboma Dem", "Ayoub Jabbari", "Tom Barlow" ], "formation": "3-5-2", "roster": [ { "id": "315972", "name": "Roman Celentano", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "saves": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "201354", "name": "Nick Hagglund", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "232755", "name": "Teenage Hadebe", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 3.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "363908", "name": "Samuel Gidi", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "275106", "name": "Obinna Nwobodo", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "362895", "name": "Gerardo Valenzuela", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "86436", "name": "Evander", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Attacking Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "236049", "name": "Bryan Ramirez", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "388854", "name": "Kenji Mboma Dem", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 3.0 } }, { "id": "305664", "name": "Ayoub 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"statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "340690", "name": "Kristian Fletcher", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "309487", "name": "Julian Malatini", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "254292", "name": "Tah Anunga", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "159296", "name": "Alvas Powell", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "416550", "name": "Felix Samson", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "398300", "name": "Stefan Chirila", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "242975", "name": "Evan Louro", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "236641", "name": "Kyle Smith", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." }, "home": { "teamId": "18418", "team": "Atlanta United FC", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/18418/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761830", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:24.115840+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.010397+00:00", "event": { "id": "761830", "date": "2026-09-26T23:30Z", "name": "New York City FC at Atlanta United FC" }, "referenceXI": [ "Lucas Hoyos", "Enea Mihaj", "Tom\u00e1s Jacob", "El\u00edas Baez", "Matt Edwards", "Mauricio Amaro", "Tristan Muyumba", "Giuliano Galoppo", "Breel Embolo", "Cooper Sanchez", "Luke Brennan" ], "formation": "4-3-3", "roster": [ { "id": "109193", "name": "Lucas Hoyos", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "saves": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "243195", "name": "Enea Mihaj", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "330082", "name": "Tom\u00e1s Jacob", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "361498", "name": "El\u00edas Baez", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "138636", "name": "Matt Edwards", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 1.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "359927", "name": "Mauricio Amaro", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "255802", "name": "Tristan Muyumba", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "270889", "name": "Giuliano Galoppo", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 5.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "202099", "name": "Breel Embolo", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 3.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "402315", "name": "Cooper Sanchez", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 3.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "308892", "name": "Luke Brennan", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "291252", "name": "Cameron Dunbar", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "371431", "name": "Adrian Gill", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "304153", "name": "Jay Fortune", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 2.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "360086", "name": "Daniel Chica", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "290024", "name": "Will Reilly", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "243384", "name": "Steven Alzate", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "214446", "name": "Sergio Santos", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "385044", "name": "Jayden Hibbert", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "235093", "name": "Cayman Togashi", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "FC Cincinnati at Atlanta United FC", "market": { "id": "761850", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761850", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.631987+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.820711+00:00", "home_line": -0.5, "away_line": 0.5, "home_line_price": 115.0, "away_line_price": -165.0, "total": 3.5, "under_line": 3.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -120.0, "home_ml": 125.0, "away_ml": 165.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "draw_ml": 290.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "moneyline_scope": "Regulation three-way including draw" } ], "average_home_line": -0.5, "average_total": 3.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "761851", "sport": "MLS", "identity": { "id": "761851", "date": "2026-10-10T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 13846, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLS", "venue": { "id": "10660", "fullName": "Gillette Stadium", "indoor": null, "address": { "city": "Foxborough, Massachusetts", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "9726", "away_name": "Seattle Sounders FC", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "189", "home_name": "New England Revolution", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 5 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T23:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Gillette Stadium" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. North wind 3 to 5 mph. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Calm wind. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/nevssea-10-10-2026/clubs", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/" ], "other_review": { "trades": [ { "player": "Marcos Zambrano", "position": "F", "date": "2026-07-17", "team": "New England Revolution", "team_id": "189", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "Real Salt Lake", "counterparty_id": "4771", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "F - Marcos Zambrano (7/17/26 - trade from Real Salt Lake)", "roster_identity": { "id": "404655", "name": "Marcos Zambrano-Delgado", "roster_team": "New England Revolution", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/189/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/404655/stats?team=189&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-404655-189.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "189", "stats": { "STRT": "3", "FC": "2", "FA": "6", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "1", "SHOT": "3", "SOG": "0", "OF": "1" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Matt Turner", "Mamadou Fofana", "Joshua Wynder", "William Sands", "Matt Polster", "Carles Gil", "Jackson Yueill", "Ethan Kohler", "Wilson Harris", "D\u00e1niel Gazdag", "Luca Langoni" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761840", "date": "2026-09-27T01:30Z", "name": "New England Revolution at Real Salt Lake" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761840", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "404655", "name": "Marcos Zambrano-Delgado", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": null, "post_trade_starts": "3", "post_last_match_role": "substitute/bench", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 85, "documented_new_team_starts": "3", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": null, "post_trade_starts": "3", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": null, "post_goals_plus_assists": 1.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Finishing, shot creation and pressing starts", "direction": "New role can displace reference XI opportunities", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.341252+00:00" }, { "player": "Brayan Ceballos", "position": "D", "date": "2026-07-24", "team": "New England Revolution", "team_id": "189", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "CF Montr\u00e9al", "counterparty_id": "9720", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "D - Brayan Ceballos (7/24/26 - trade to CF Montr\u00e9al)", "roster_identity": { "id": "322977", "name": "Brayan Ceballos", "roster_team": "CF Montr\u00e9al", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/9720/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/322977/stats?team=189&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-322977-189.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "189", "stats": { "STRT": "8", "FC": "13", "FA": "10", "YC": "3", "RC": "0", "G": "2", "A": "0", "SHOT": "3", "SOG": "2", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "189", "stats": { "STRT": "29", "FC": "39", "FA": "19", "YC": "9", "RC": "0", "G": "1", "A": "0", "SHOT": "11", "SOG": "2", "OF": "3" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Matt Turner", "Mamadou Fofana", "Joshua Wynder", "William Sands", "Matt Polster", "Carles Gil", "Jackson Yueill", "Ethan Kohler", "Wilson Harris", "D\u00e1niel Gazdag", "Luca Langoni" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761840", "date": "2026-09-27T01:30Z", "name": "New England Revolution at Real Salt Lake" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761840", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "322977", "name": "Brayan Ceballos", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Brayan Ceballos - Lower Body (Out)" ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "8", "post_trade_starts": "5", "post_last_match_role": "starter", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 78, "documented_new_team_starts": "5", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": "8", "post_trade_starts": "5", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 2.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Build-up width and set-piece contribution", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Space/duel coverage and line coordination", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.343762+00:00" }, { "player": "Dejan Jovelji\u0107", "position": "F", "date": "2026-08-25", "team": "Seattle Sounders FC", "team_id": "9726", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "Sporting Kansas City", "counterparty_id": "186", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "F - Dejan Jovelji\u0107 (8/25/26 - trade from Sporting Kansas City)", "roster_identity": { "id": "240110", "name": "Dejan Joveljic", "roster_team": "Seattle Sounders FC", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/9726/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/240110/stats?team=9726&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-240110-9726.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "9726", "stats": { "STRT": "4", "FC": "3", "FA": "6", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "3", "A": "0", "SHOT": "13", "SOG": "6", "OF": "2" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Andy Thomas", "Jackson Ragen", "Stuart Hawkins", "Nouhou Tolo", "Alex Roldan", "Albert Rusn\u00e1k", "Cristian Roldan", "Peter Kingston", "Daniel Musovski", "Paul Arriola", "Jordan Morris" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761798", "date": "2026-10-02T01:30Z", "name": "Sporting Kansas City at Seattle Sounders FC" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761798", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "20", "post_trade_starts": "4", "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 46, "documented_new_team_starts": "4", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": "20", "post_trade_starts": "4", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. 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United)", "roster_identity": { "id": "302991", "name": "Caden Clark", "roster_team": "Seattle Sounders FC", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/9726/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/302991/stats?team=9726&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-302991-9726.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "9726", "stats": { "STRT": "1", "FC": "2", "FA": "0", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "1", "A": "0", "SHOT": "2", "SOG": "1", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Andy Thomas", "Jackson Ragen", "Stuart Hawkins", "Nouhou Tolo", "Alex Roldan", "Albert Rusn\u00e1k", "Cristian Roldan", "Peter Kingston", "Daniel Musovski", "Paul Arriola", "Jordan Morris" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761798", "date": "2026-10-02T01:30Z", "name": "Sporting Kansas City at Seattle Sounders FC" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761798", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "302991", "name": "Caden Clark", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "0", "post_trade_starts": "1", "post_last_match_role": "substitute/bench", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 37, "documented_new_team_starts": "1", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": "0", "post_trade_starts": "1", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. 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Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.354347+00:00" }, { "player": "Georgi Minoungou", "position": "F", "date": "2026-03-27", "team": "Seattle Sounders FC", "team_id": "9726", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "Colorado Rapids", "counterparty_id": "184", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "F - Georgi Minoungou (3/27/26 - trade to Colorado Rapids)", "roster_identity": { "id": "362501", "name": "Georgi Minoungou", "roster_team": "Colorado Rapids", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/184/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/362501/stats?team=9726&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-362501-9726.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "9726", "stats": { "STRT": "2", "FC": "3", "FA": "2", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "3", "SOG": "2", "OF": "1" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "9726", "stats": { "STRT": "6", "FC": "14", "FA": "12", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "1", "A": "3", "SHOT": "29", "SOG": "10", "OF": "8" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "9726", "stats": { "STRT": "0", "FC": "1", "FA": "0", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "1", "SOG": "0", "OF": "1" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "9726", "stats": { "STRT": "3", "FC": "9", "FA": "4", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "1", "A": "1", "SHOT": "9", "SOG": "3", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "9726", "stats": { "STRT": "1", "FC": "3", "FA": "3", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "1", "SHOT": "2", "SOG": "1", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Andy Thomas", "Jackson Ragen", "Stuart Hawkins", "Nouhou Tolo", "Alex Roldan", "Albert Rusn\u00e1k", "Cristian Roldan", "Peter Kingston", "Daniel Musovski", "Paul Arriola", "Jordan Morris" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761798", "date": "2026-10-02T01:30Z", "name": "Sporting Kansas City at Seattle Sounders FC" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761798", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "2", "post_trade_starts": "13", "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 197, "documented_new_team_starts": "13", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": "2", "post_trade_starts": "13", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. 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team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 1 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T23:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Bank of America Stadium" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Patchy fog after 9am. High near 69. Northeast wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Low around 66. East wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/cltvsdal-10-10-2026/clubs", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/" ], "other_review": { "trades": [ { "player": "Daniel", "position": "GK", "date": "2026-07-09", "team": "FC Dallas", "team_id": "185", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "San Jose Earthquakes", "counterparty_id": "191", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "GK - Daniel (7/9/26 - trade from San Jose Earthquakes)", "roster_identity": { "id": "243832", "name": "Daniel", "roster_team": "FC Dallas", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/185/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/243832/stats?team=185&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-243832-185.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "185", "stats": { "STRT": "5", "FC": "0", "FA": "1", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "goalKeeping", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "185", "stats": { "CS": "1", "SV": "11", "GA": "3" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Jonathan Sirois", "Osaze Urhoghide", "Nolan Norris", "Sebastien Ibeagha", "Christian Cappis", "Kaick", "Shaq Moore", "Herman Johansson", "Logan Farrington", "Santiago Moreno", "Joaqu\u00edn Valiente" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761835", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "LAFC at FC Dallas" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761835", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "14", "post_trade_starts": "5", "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 93, "documented_new_team_starts": "5", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": "14", "post_trade_starts": "5", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Build-up distribution and set-piece contribution", "direction": "New role can displace reference XI opportunities", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Goal prevention and distribution under pressure", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.331323+00:00" } ], "references": { "away": { "teamId": "185", "team": "FC Dallas", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/185/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761835", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:24.115840+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.066867+00:00", "event": { "id": "761835", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "LAFC at FC Dallas" }, "referenceXI": [ "Jonathan Sirois", "Osaze Urhoghide", "Nolan Norris", "Sebastien Ibeagha", "Christian Cappis", "Kaick", "Shaq Moore", "Herman Johansson", "Logan Farrington", "Santiago Moreno", "Joaqu\u00edn Valiente" ], "formation": "3-4-2-1", "roster": [ { "id": "303555", "name": "Jonathan Sirois", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "268731", "name": "Osaze Urhoghide", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "356357", "name": "Nolan Norris", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "233460", "name": "Sebastien Ibeagha", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "283864", "name": "Christian Cappis", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 3.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "380441", "name": "Kaick", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 3.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "219275", "name": "Shaq Moore", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "312876", "name": "Herman Johansson", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 5.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "348870", "name": "Logan Farrington", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "285201", "name": "Santiago Moreno", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "359922", "name": "Joaqu\u00edn Valiente", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "417400", "name": "Caleb Swann", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "348652", "name": "Samuel Sarver", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "199822", "name": "Anderson Julio", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "379566", "name": "Michael Collodi", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "365850", "name": "Nicholas Simmonds", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "251801", "name": "Lalas Abubakar", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "381038", "name": "Daniel Job", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "279821", "name": "Clay Holstad", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "297142", "name": "Patrickson Delgado", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." }, "home": { "teamId": "21300", "team": "Charlotte FC", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/21300/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761832", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:24.115840+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:24.972224+00:00", "event": { "id": "761832", "date": "2026-09-26T23:30Z", "name": "Chicago Fire FC at Charlotte FC" }, "referenceXI": [ "Kristijan Kahlina", "Tim Ream", "Henry Kessler", "Harry Toffolo", "Will Cleary", "Ashley Westwood", "Djibril Diani", "Luca de la Torre", "Archie Goodwin", "Allan Saint-Maximin", "Pep Biel" ], "formation": "4-3-3", "roster": [ { "id": "221408", "name": "Kristijan Kahlina", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "saves": 8.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "146290", "name": "Tim Ream", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 1.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "294222", "name": "Henry Kessler", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 4.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "172833", "name": "Harry Toffolo", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "419194", "name": "Will Cleary", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "7567", "name": "Ashley Westwood", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 3.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "282755", "name": "Djibril Diani", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "225609", "name": "Luca de la Torre", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 1.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "314343", "name": "Archie Goodwin", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "193281", "name": "Allan Saint-Maximin", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 4.0 } }, { "id": "268604", "name": "Pep Biel", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 3.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "348643", "name": "Nathan Richmond", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "383890", "name": "Tyger Smalls", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 2.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "246371", "name": "Brandt Bronico", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "156506", "name": "Nathan Byrne", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "271242", "name": "David Schnegg", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "219661", "name": "Tyler Miller", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "419242", "name": "Morrison Agyemang", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "372070", "name": "Baye Coulibaly", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "319014", "name": "Andrew Privett", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "FC Dallas at Charlotte FC", "market": { "id": "761852", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761852", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.700360+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.902284+00:00", "home_line": -0.5, "away_line": 0.5, "home_line_price": 110.0, "away_line_price": -150.0, "total": 3.5, "under_line": 3.5, "over_price": 130.0, "under_price": -165.0, "home_ml": 115.0, "away_ml": 185.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "draw_ml": 275.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "moneyline_scope": "Regulation three-way including draw" } ], "average_home_line": -0.5, "average_total": 3.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "761853", "sport": "MLS", "identity": { "id": "761853", "date": "2026-10-10T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 13846, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLS", "venue": { "id": "9606", "fullName": "Sports Illustrated Stadium", "indoor": null, "address": { "city": "Harrison, New Jersey", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "22529", "away_name": "San Diego FC", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "190", "home_name": "Red Bull New York", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 4 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T23:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Sports Illustrated Stadium" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the morning. Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 55. Light and variable wind. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/rbnyvssd-10-10-2026/clubs", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/" ], "other_review": { "trades": [ { "player": "Ian Murphy", "position": "D", "date": "2026-06-27", "team": "San Diego FC", "team_id": "22529", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "Colorado Rapids", "counterparty_id": "184", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "D - Ian Murphy (6/27/26 - trade from Colorado Rapids)", "roster_identity": { "id": "296216", "name": "Ian Murphy", "roster_team": "San Diego FC", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/22529/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/296216/stats?team=22529&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-296216-22529.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "22529", "stats": { "STRT": "8", "FC": "5", "FA": "2", "YC": "2", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Duran Ferree", "Ian Pilcher", "Ian Murphy", "Manu Duah", "An\u00edbal Godoy", "Jeppe Tverskov", "Kieran Sargeant", "Oscar Verhoeven", "Marcus Ingvartsen", "David Vazquez", "Anders Dreyer" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761839", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "San Diego FC at Austin FC" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761839", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "296216", "name": "Ian Murphy", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "0", "post_trade_starts": "8", "post_last_match_role": "starter", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 105, "documented_new_team_starts": "8", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": "0", "post_trade_starts": "8", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Build-up width and set-piece contribution", "direction": "New role can displace reference XI opportunities", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Space/duel coverage and line coordination", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.353337+00:00" }, { "player": "Gabriel Pirani", "position": "M", "date": "2026-07-09", "team": "San Diego FC", "team_id": "22529", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "D.C. United", "counterparty_id": "193", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "M - Gabriel Pirani (7/9/26 - trade from D.C. United)", "roster_identity": { "id": "307475", "name": "Gabriel Pirani", "roster_team": "San Diego FC", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/22529/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/307475/stats?team=22529&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-307475-22529.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "22529", "stats": { "STRT": "6", "FC": "3", "FA": "8", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "2", "A": "0", "SHOT": "12", "SOG": "5", "OF": "2" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Duran Ferree", "Ian Pilcher", "Ian Murphy", "Manu Duah", "An\u00edbal Godoy", "Jeppe Tverskov", "Kieran Sargeant", "Oscar Verhoeven", "Marcus Ingvartsen", "David Vazquez", "Anders Dreyer" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761839", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "San Diego FC at Austin FC" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761839", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "6", "post_trade_starts": "6", "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 93, "documented_new_team_starts": "6", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": "6", "post_trade_starts": "6", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. 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"position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 3.0 } }, { "id": "257114", "name": "Christopher McVey", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." }, "home": { "teamId": "190", "team": "Red Bull New York", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/190/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761833", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.506281+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:26.067247+00:00", "event": { "id": "761833", "date": "2026-09-30T23:30Z", "name": "St. Louis CITY SC at Red Bull New York" }, "referenceXI": [ "Ethan Horvath", "Juli\u00e1n Baz\u00e1n", "Tim Parker", "Devin Padelford", "Dylan Nealis", "S\u00e9kou Kon\u00e9", "Emil Forsberg", "Mohammed Sofo", "Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting", "Cade Cowell", "Jorge Ruvalcaba" ], "formation": "4-3-3", "roster": [ { "id": "192027", "name": "Ethan Horvath", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 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0.0 } }, { "id": "372068", "name": "S\u00e9kou Kon\u00e9", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "148641", "name": "Emil Forsberg", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "380923", "name": "Mohammed Sofo", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 3.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "102254", "name": "Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 2.0, "shotsOnTarget": 2.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "285698", "name": "Cade Cowell", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 4.0, 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false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "3143898", "name": "Connor Faello", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "343042", "name": "Nathan Worth", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "381248", "name": "Tanner Rosborough", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "San Diego FC at Red Bull New York", "market": { "id": "761853", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761853", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.733215+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.922192+00:00", "home_line": 0.5, "away_line": -0.5, "home_line_price": -185.0, "away_line_price": 135.0, "total": 3.5, "under_line": 3.5, "over_price": -120.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 150.0, "away_ml": 140.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "draw_ml": 275.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "moneyline_scope": "Regulation three-way including draw" } ], "average_home_line": 0.5, "average_total": 3.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; 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release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "401856827", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401856827", "date": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "587", "fullName": "Rice-Eccles Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Salt Lake City", "state": "UT", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2305", "away_name": "Kansas Jayhawks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "254", "home_name": "Utah Utes", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2305", "side": "away", "player": "Yasin Willis", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 28.083333333333332, 26.75 ], "current_rates": [ 36.0, 17.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 41.083333333333336, 18.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 43.25, 10.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 33.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 33.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2305", "side": "away", "player": "Yasin Willis", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.083333333333332, "pa": 26.75, "margin": 1.3333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401756847", "401756854", "401752689", "401756899", "401756905", "401756915", "401756921", "401756932", "401756940", "401756943", "401756958", "401756964" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36.0, "pa": 17.0, "margin": 19.0, "event_ids": [ "401856769", "401856678", "401856812", "401856807" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 41.083333333333336, "pa": 18.666666666666668, "margin": 22.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752800", "401756887", "401756895", "401756901", "401756908", "401756922", "401756924", "401756934", "401756942", "401756949", "401756960", "401756964" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 43.25, "pa": 10.25, "margin": 33.0, "event_ids": [ "401856768", "401856670", "401856801", "401856816" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.375, 33.91666666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 23.125, 30.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.5083333333333346, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 37.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.5, 37.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401856827", "matchup": "Kansas Jayhawks at Utah Utes", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Kansas Jayhawks", "names": [ "Yasin Willis" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Willis 27 carries versus Edwards50, Dupree21, Johnson13 verifies material committee role. Cole Ballard is a reserve with seven attempts, compared with Marshall104; no current starting-QB penalty solely for his OUT designation. | Utah Utes: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 19.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.375, 33.91666666666667 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.125, 30.125 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.5083333333333337, 5.008333333333334 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 50, "def_drives": 51, "off_points_proxy": 138, "def_points_proxy": 68, "off_plays": 362, "off_yards": 2513, "def_plays": 316, "def_yards": 1541, "early_plays": 268, "early_yards": 1903, "explosive_plays": 34, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856678", "401856769", "401856807", "401856812" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.76, "def_ppd": 1.3333333333333333, "off_ypp": 6.941988950276243, "def_ypp": 4.8765822784810124, "early_down_ypp": 7.100746268656716 }, "home": { "off_drives": 47, "def_drives": 46, "off_points_proxy": 173, "def_points_proxy": 41, "off_plays": 319, "off_yards": 2241, "def_plays": 355, "def_yards": 1337, "early_plays": 243, "early_yards": 1604, "explosive_plays": 31, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856670", "401856768", "401856801", "401856816" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 3.6808510638297873, "def_ppd": 0.8913043478260869, "off_ypp": 7.025078369905956, "def_ypp": 3.7661971830985914, "early_down_ypp": 6.600823045267489 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 65. South southeast wind around 10 mph. Saturday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. South wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Low around 53. South wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Salt+Lake+City&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=40.7608&textField2=-111.89&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856827", "matchup": "Kansas Jayhawks at Utah Utes", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Kansas Jayhawks", "names": [ "Yasin Willis" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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28.083333333333332, "pa": 26.75, "margin": 1.3333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401756847", "401756854", "401752689", "401756899", "401756905", "401756915", "401756921", "401756932", "401756940", "401756943", "401756958", "401756964" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36.0, "pa": 17.0, "margin": 19.0, "event_ids": [ "401856769", "401856678", "401856812", "401856807" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 41.083333333333336, "pa": 18.666666666666668, "margin": 22.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752800", "401756887", "401756895", "401756901", "401756908", "401756922", "401756924", "401756934", "401756942", "401756949", "401756960", "401756964" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 43.25, "pa": 10.25, "margin": 33.0, "event_ids": [ "401856768", "401856670", "401856801", "401856816" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.375, 33.91666666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 23.125, 30.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.5083333333333346, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.7416666666666671, 37.74166666666667 ], "home": [ 19.02916666666667, 55.02916666666667 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401856827", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856827", "teamId": "2305", "team": "Kansas Jayhawks", "side": "away", "opponent": "Utah Utes", "conferenceReportKey": "Kansas", "officialReport": { "url": "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 21:00 America/Chicago", "conference": "B12" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5079604", "name": "Isaiah Marshall", "position": "QB", "workload": "57/104, 810 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/5079604/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5151060", "name": "Cole Ballard", "position": "QB", "workload": "5/7, 96 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/5151060/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4918414", "name": "Dylan Edwards", "position": "RB", "workload": "50 CAR, 296 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/4918414/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079749", "name": "Yasin Willis", "position": "RB", "workload": "27 CAR, 125 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/5079749/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5193112", "name": "Jalen Dupree", "position": "RB", "workload": "21 CAR, 103 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/5193112/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4869730", "name": "Nik McMillan", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 256 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/4869730/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5296407", "name": "Nahzae Cox", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 167 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/5296407/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5151868", "name": "Bryson Hayes", "position": "WR", "workload": "5 REC, 106 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/5151868/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5142704", "name": "Carson Bruhn", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 55 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/5142704/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5151966", "name": "Jailen Butler", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 29 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/5151966/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Kory Amachree", "id": "5214653", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Yasin Willis", "id": "5079749", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "27 CAR, 125 YDS, 2 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 12 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Cole Ballard", "id": "5151060", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "5/7, 96 YDS" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 14 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Justin Thurman", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Griffin Baker", "id": "5384631", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Carter Moses", "id": "5098591", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Willis 27 carries versus Edwards50, Dupree21, Johnson13 verifies material committee role. Cole Ballard is a reserve with seven attempts, compared with Marshall104; no current starting-QB penalty solely for his OUT designation.", "confirmed": [ "Yasin Willis" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Yasin Willis", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "Primary": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "TightenUpON": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Willis 27 carries versus Edwards50, Dupree21, Johnson13 verifies material committee role. Cole Ballard is a reserve with seven attempts, compared with Marshall104; no current starting-QB penalty solely for his OUT designation.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5079749", "name": "Yasin Willis", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/712", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 35, "rushingYards": 127, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.628999948501587, "receptions": 6, "receivingYards": 22, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079749/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 129, "rushingYards": 558, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.326000213623047, "receptions": 9, "receivingYards": 42, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079749/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2305", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 27, "rushingYards": 125, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.599999904632568, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 12, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079749/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "183" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4918414", "name": "Dylan Edwards", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/715", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2306", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 56, "rushingYards": 350, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.25, "receptions": 17, "receivingYards": 106, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4918414/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2306", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 34, "rushingYards": 205, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.0289998054504395, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 17, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4918414/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2305", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 50, "rushingYards": 296, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.900000095367432, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 98, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4918414/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2306" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5193112", "name": "Jalen Dupree", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/777", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "36", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 24, "rushingYards": 147, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.125, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 2, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5193112/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "36", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 102, "rushingYards": 508, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.980000019073486, "receptions": 12, "receivingYards": 83, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5193112/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2305", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 21, "rushingYards": 103, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.900000095367432, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5193112/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "36" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5219487", "name": "Micah Johnson", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/778", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2305", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5219487/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2305", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5219487/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2305", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 13, "rushingYards": 55, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.199999809265137, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5219487/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2305" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Micah Johnson", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Micah Johnson", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2305/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Ballard seven attempts versus Marshall104; reserve QB absence does not replace the starter.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856827", "teamId": "254", "team": "Utah Utes", "side": "home", "opponent": "Kansas Jayhawks", "conferenceReportKey": "Utah", "officialReport": { "url": "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 21:00 America/Chicago", "conference": "B12" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5105849", "name": "Devon Dampier", "position": "QB", "workload": "71/101, 896 YDS, 9 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/5105849/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5294263", "name": "Byrd Ficklin", "position": "QB", "workload": "9/17, 166 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/5294263/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5173431", "name": "Wayshawn Parker", "position": "RB", "workload": "50 CAR, 328 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/5173431/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5203476", "name": "Daniel Bray", "position": "RB", "workload": "13 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/5203476/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5264742", "name": "LaMarcus Bell", "position": "RB", "workload": "8 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/5264742/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4869422", "name": "Braden Pegan", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 264 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/4869422/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4871040", "name": "Creed Whittemore", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 131 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/4871040/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5132652", "name": "Ricky Johnson", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 101 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/5132652/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4900351", "name": "Noah Bennee", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 166 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/4900351/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5148821", "name": "Hunter Andrews", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 34 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/5148821/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Kana'i Lopes", "id": "5219997", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Utah Utes: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/254/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 19.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.375, 33.91666666666667 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.125, 30.125 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.5083333333333337, 5.008333333333334 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Kansas Jayhawks at Utah Utes", "market": { "id": "401856827", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856827", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.758464+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.940619+00:00", "home_line": -15.5, "away_line": 15.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -700.0, "away_ml": 500.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -15.5, "average_total": 51.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 10.625000000000007, "combined": 55.675000000000004, "spread_buffer": -4.874999999999993, "total_difference": 4.175000000000004 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 13.625000000000007, "combined": 52.675000000000004, "spread_buffer": -1.874999999999993, "total_difference": 1.1750000000000043 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 18.317209657900726, "combined": 55.890975170297416, "spread_buffer": 2.817209657900726, "total_difference": 4.390975170297416 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 21.317209657900726, "combined": 52.890975170297416, "spread_buffer": 5.817209657900726, "total_difference": 1.3909751702974162 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 17.2875, "combined": 56.770833333333336, "spread_buffer": 1.7875000000000014, "total_difference": 5.270833333333336 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 20.2875, "combined": 53.770833333333336, "spread_buffer": 4.787500000000001, "total_difference": 2.2708333333333357 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401856827", "matchup": "Kansas Jayhawks at Utah Utes", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Utah Utes", "line": -15.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856827", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.758464+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.940619+00:00", "home_line": -15.5, "away_line": 15.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -700.0, "away_ml": 500.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 1.7875000000000014, "production_adjusted": 4.787500000000001, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.6625000000000014, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "directional_buffer": -1.874999999999993, "scenario_minimum": -4.874999999999993 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "directional_buffer": 5.817209657900726, "scenario_minimum": 2.817209657900726 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 4.787500000000001, "scenario_minimum": 1.7875000000000014 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 4.787500000000001, "scenario_minimum": 1.7875000000000014 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 19.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6625000000000014, "stressed_buffer": -1.3374999999999986 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 4.787500000000001, "stressed_buffer": 1.7875000000000014 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 1.7875000000000014, "stressed_buffer": -1.2124999999999986 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 16.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 4.662500000000001, "stressed_buffer": 1.6625000000000014 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 19.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6625000000000014, "stressed_buffer": -1.3374999999999986 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 19.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.375, 33.91666666666667 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.125, 30.125 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.5083333333333337, 5.008333333333334 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Kansas Jayhawks", "names": [ "Yasin Willis" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Salt+Lake+City&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=40.7608&textField2=-111.89&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Salt+Lake+City&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=40.7608&textField2=-111.89&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:00:00-06:00", "window": "A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Low around 53. South wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 40, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401856827", "matchup": "Kansas Jayhawks at Utah Utes", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 51.5, "price": -105.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856827", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.758464+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.940619+00:00", "home_line": -15.5, "away_line": 15.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -700.0, "away_ml": 500.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 5.270833333333336, "production_adjusted": 2.2708333333333357, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.2708333333333357, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "directional_buffer": 1.1750000000000043, "scenario_minimum": 1.1750000000000043 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "directional_buffer": 1.3909751702974162, "scenario_minimum": 1.3909751702974162 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2708333333333357, "scenario_minimum": 2.2708333333333357 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2708333333333357, "scenario_minimum": 2.2708333333333357 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2708333333333357, "stressed_buffer": -0.7291666666666643 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2708333333333357, "stressed_buffer": -0.7291666666666643 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 5.270833333333336, "stressed_buffer": 2.2708333333333357 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 16.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.3958333333333357, "stressed_buffer": -0.6041666666666643 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 19.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 5.395833333333336, "stressed_buffer": 2.3958333333333357 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 19.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.375, 33.91666666666667 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.125, 30.125 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.5083333333333337, 5.008333333333334 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Kansas Jayhawks", "names": [ "Yasin Willis" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Salt+Lake+City&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=40.7608&textField2=-111.89&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Salt+Lake+City&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=40.7608&textField2=-111.89&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:00:00-06:00", "window": "A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Low around 53. South wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 40, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 17.2875, "combined": 56.770833333333336, "spread_buffer": 1.7875000000000014, "total_difference": 5.270833333333336 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 20.2875, "combined": 53.770833333333336, "spread_buffer": 4.787500000000001, "total_difference": 2.2708333333333357 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401856827", "matchup": "Kansas Jayhawks at Utah Utes", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Utah Utes", "line": -15.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856827", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.758464+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.940619+00:00", "home_line": -15.5, "away_line": 15.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -700.0, "away_ml": 500.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 1.7875000000000014, "production_adjusted": 4.787500000000001, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.6625000000000014, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "directional_buffer": -1.874999999999993, "scenario_minimum": -4.874999999999993 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "directional_buffer": 5.817209657900726, "scenario_minimum": 2.817209657900726 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 4.787500000000001, "scenario_minimum": 1.7875000000000014 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 4.787500000000001, "scenario_minimum": 1.7875000000000014 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 19.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6625000000000014, "stressed_buffer": -1.3374999999999986 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 4.787500000000001, "stressed_buffer": 1.7875000000000014 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 1.7875000000000014, "stressed_buffer": -1.2124999999999986 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 16.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 4.662500000000001, "stressed_buffer": 1.6625000000000014 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 19.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6625000000000014, "stressed_buffer": -1.3374999999999986 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 19.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.375, 33.91666666666667 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.125, 30.125 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.5083333333333337, 5.008333333333334 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Kansas Jayhawks", "names": [ "Yasin Willis" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Salt+Lake+City&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=40.7608&textField2=-111.89&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Salt+Lake+City&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=40.7608&textField2=-111.89&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:00:00-06:00", "window": "A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Low around 53. South wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 40, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401856827", "matchup": "Kansas Jayhawks at Utah Utes", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 51.5, "price": -105.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856827", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.758464+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.940619+00:00", "home_line": -15.5, "away_line": 15.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -700.0, "away_ml": 500.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 5.270833333333336, "production_adjusted": 2.2708333333333357, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.2708333333333357, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "directional_buffer": 1.1750000000000043, "scenario_minimum": 1.1750000000000043 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "directional_buffer": 1.3909751702974162, "scenario_minimum": 1.3909751702974162 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2708333333333357, "scenario_minimum": 2.2708333333333357 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2708333333333357, "scenario_minimum": 2.2708333333333357 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2708333333333357, "stressed_buffer": -0.7291666666666643 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2708333333333357, "stressed_buffer": -0.7291666666666643 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 5.270833333333336, "stressed_buffer": 2.2708333333333357 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 16.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.3958333333333357, "stressed_buffer": -0.6041666666666643 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 19.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 5.395833333333336, "stressed_buffer": 2.3958333333333357 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 19.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.375, 33.91666666666667 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.125, 30.125 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.5083333333333337, 5.008333333333334 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Kansas Jayhawks", "names": [ "Yasin Willis" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Salt+Lake+City&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=40.7608&textField2=-111.89&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Salt+Lake+City&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=40.7608&textField2=-111.89&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:00:00-06:00", "window": "A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Low around 53. South wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 40, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401858486", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401858486", "date": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3907", "fullName": "Ross-Ade Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "West Lafayette", "state": "IN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "135", "away_name": "Minnesota Golden Gophers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2509", "home_name": "Purdue Boilermakers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.25, 23.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 32.0, 18.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 18.75, 31.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 30.4, 35.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.25, "pa": 23.416666666666668, "margin": -0.16666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401752793", "401752813", "401752840", "401752849", "401752859", "401752864", "401752872", "401752882", "401752888", "401752904", "401752909", "401752918" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.0, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 14.0, "event_ids": [ "401858422", "401856677", "401858451", "401858470", "401858474" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.75, "pa": 31.833333333333332, "margin": -13.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752801", "401752819", "401752832", "401752848", "401752861", "401752864", "401752874", "401752884", "401752890", "401752897", "401752902", "401752924" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 35.0, "margin": -4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858435", "401858224", "401858458", "401858467", "401858472" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.541666666666664, 21.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.5, 24.2 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.151666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 21.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 21.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.25, "pa": 23.416666666666668, "margin": -0.16666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401752793", "401752813", "401752840", "401752849", "401752859", "401752864", "401752872", "401752882", "401752888", "401752904", "401752909", "401752918" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.0, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 14.0, "event_ids": [ "401858422", "401856677", "401858451", "401858470", "401858474" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.75, "pa": 31.833333333333332, "margin": -13.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752801", "401752819", "401752832", "401752848", "401752861", "401752864", "401752874", "401752884", "401752890", "401752897", "401752902", "401752924" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 35.0, "margin": -4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858435", "401858224", "401858458", "401858467", "401858472" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.541666666666664, 21.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.5, 24.2 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.151666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 21.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 21.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401858486", "matchup": "Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Minnesota Golden Gophers: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Purdue Boilermakers: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.6725, 22.548333333333332 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.541666666666664, 21.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.5, 24.2 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.151666666666667, -1.6516666666666668 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 139, "def_points_proxy": 97, "off_plays": 417, "off_yards": 2391, "def_plays": 369, "def_yards": 1879, "early_plays": 297, "early_yards": 1745, "explosive_plays": 35, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856677", "401858422", "401858451", "401858470", "401858474" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.396551724137931, "def_ppd": 1.6724137931034482, "off_ypp": 5.733812949640288, "def_ypp": 5.092140921409214, "early_down_ypp": 5.875420875420875 }, "home": { "off_drives": 55, "def_drives": 51, "off_points_proxy": 145, "def_points_proxy": 168, "off_plays": 446, "off_yards": 2631, "def_plays": 400, "def_yards": 2706, "early_plays": 331, "early_yards": 1786, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858224", "401858435", "401858458", "401858467", "401858472" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.6363636363636362, "def_ppd": 3.2941176470588234, "off_ypp": 5.8991031390134525, "def_ypp": 6.765, "early_down_ypp": 5.395770392749244 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Tonight A chance of showers before 1am, then a slight chance of showers after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 7 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=West+Lafayette&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=40.4447&textField2=-86.9119&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858486", "matchup": "Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/4831976/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/4920901/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5044424/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5144959/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5144962/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5150680/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5164749/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5224792/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5244731/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5264245/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/4431647/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/4808767/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/4871062/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5075912/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5079410/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5104738/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5149006/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5218961/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5219089/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5276670/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=West+Lafayette&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=40.4447&textField2=-86.9119&e=0", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/135/roster?season=2026", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2509/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview" ], "tu": { "id": "401858486", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401858486", "date": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3907", "fullName": "Ross-Ade Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "West Lafayette", "state": "IN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "135", "away_name": "Minnesota Golden Gophers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2509", "home_name": "Purdue Boilermakers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.25, "pa": 23.416666666666668, "margin": -0.16666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401752793", "401752813", "401752840", "401752849", "401752859", "401752864", "401752872", "401752882", "401752888", "401752904", "401752909", "401752918" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.0, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 14.0, "event_ids": [ "401858422", "401856677", "401858451", "401858470", "401858474" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.75, "pa": 31.833333333333332, "margin": -13.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752801", "401752819", "401752832", "401752848", "401752861", "401752864", "401752874", "401752884", "401752890", "401752897", "401752902", "401752924" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 35.0, "margin": -4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858435", "401858224", "401858458", "401858467", "401858472" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.541666666666664, 21.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.5, 24.2 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.151666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 15.6725, 51.6725 ], "home": [ 2.9899999999999984, 38.989999999999995 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401858486", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858486", "teamId": "135", "team": "Minnesota Golden Gophers", "side": "away", "opponent": "Purdue Boilermakers", "conferenceReportKey": "Minnesota", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5144959", "name": "Drake Lindsey", "position": "QB", "workload": "105/157, 1087 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5144959/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5150680", "name": "Max Shikenjanski", "position": "QB", "workload": "3/3, 50 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5150680/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5224792", "name": "TJ Thomas", "position": "RB", "workload": "46 CAR, 307 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5224792/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4920901", "name": "Darius Taylor", "position": "RB", "workload": "57 CAR, 139 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/4920901/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5264245", "name": "Xavier Ford", "position": "RB", "workload": "17 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5264245/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5164749", "name": "Noah Jennings", "position": "WR", "workload": "26 REC, 345 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5164749/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4831976", "name": "Javon Tracy", "position": "WR", "workload": "27 REC, 300 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/4831976/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5144962", "name": "Jalen Smith", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 121 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5144962/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5044424", "name": "Pierce Walsh", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 47 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5044424/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5244731", "name": "Roman Voss", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5244731/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Michael Merdinger", "id": "5144313", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Donielle Hayes", "id": "5077206", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Ryan Estrada", "id": "5244756", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "3 CAR, 10 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 12 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Hayden Moore", "id": "5271219", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 49 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Minnesota Golden Gophers: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/135/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Estrada three carries versus Taylor57/Thomas46/Ford17; Moore three catches versus Tracy27/Jennings26/Smith12. No main-role replacement identified.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858486", "teamId": "2509", "team": "Purdue Boilermakers", "side": "home", "opponent": "Minnesota Golden Gophers", "conferenceReportKey": "Purdue", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5104738", "name": "Ryan Browne", "position": "QB", "workload": "110/156, 1390 YDS, 8 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5104738/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5149006", "name": "Evans Chuba", "position": "QB", "workload": "11/14, 96 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5149006/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5218961", "name": "Fame Ijeboi", "position": "RB", "workload": "86 CAR, 354 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5218961/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5219089", "name": "Antonio Harris", "position": "RB", "workload": "15 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5219089/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079410", "name": "Jerrick Gibson", "position": "RB", "workload": "18 CAR, 58 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5079410/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4871062", "name": "Asaad Waseem", "position": "WR", "workload": "27 REC, 453 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/4871062/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4808767", "name": "Xavier Townsend", "position": "WR", "workload": "28 REC, 307 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/4808767/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4431647", "name": "Chauncey Magwood", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 177 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/4431647/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5075912", "name": "George Burhenn", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5075912/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5276670", "name": "Ar'mari Towns", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 26 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5276670/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Kylan Fox", "id": "5079462", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Purdue Boilermakers: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2509/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.6725, 22.548333333333332 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.541666666666664, 21.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.5, 24.2 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.151666666666667, -1.6516666666666668 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers", "market": { "id": "401858486", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858486", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.794481+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.973029+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 50.5, "under_line": 50.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": 120.0, "away_ml": -142.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 2.5, "average_total": 50.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -6.25, "combined": 52.75, "spread_buffer": -3.75, "total_difference": 2.25 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -6.25, "combined": 52.75, "spread_buffer": -3.75, "total_difference": 2.25 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.3512825245635369, "combined": 51.69819167882349, "spread_buffer": 2.851282524563537, "total_difference": 1.1981916788234912 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.3512825245635369, "combined": 51.69819167882349, "spread_buffer": 2.851282524563537, "total_difference": 1.1981916788234912 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -12.682500000000001, "combined": 54.662499999999994, "spread_buffer": -10.182500000000001, "total_difference": 4.162499999999994 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -12.682500000000001, "combined": 54.662499999999994, "spread_buffer": -10.182500000000001, "total_difference": 4.162499999999994 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401858486", "matchup": "Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Minnesota Golden Gophers", "line": -2.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858486", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.794481+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.973029+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 50.5, "under_line": 50.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": 120.0, "away_ml": -142.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 10.182500000000001, "production_adjusted": 10.182500000000001, "minimum_all_scenarios": 8.624166666666671, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "directional_buffer": 3.75, "scenario_minimum": 3.75 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "directional_buffer": -2.851282524563537, "scenario_minimum": -2.851282524563537 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "directional_buffer": 10.182500000000001, "scenario_minimum": 10.182500000000001 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "directional_buffer": 10.182500000000001, "scenario_minimum": 10.182500000000001 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.6725, 22.54833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 8.624166666666671, "stressed_buffer": 5.624166666666671 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "directional_buffer": 10.182500000000001, "stressed_buffer": 7.182500000000001 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.6725, 22.54833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 8.624166666666671, "stressed_buffer": 5.624166666666671 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.6725, 22.548333333333332 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.541666666666664, 21.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.5, 24.2 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.151666666666667, -1.6516666666666668 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=West+Lafayette&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=40.4447&textField2=-86.9119&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T20:00:00-04:00", "window": "A chance of showers before 1am, then a slight chance of showers after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 7 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.", "maxForecastGustMph": 18, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401858486", "matchup": "Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 50.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858486", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.794481+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.973029+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 50.5, "under_line": 50.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": 120.0, "away_ml": -142.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 4.162499999999994, "production_adjusted": 4.162499999999994, "minimum_all_scenarios": 4.162499999999994, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "directional_buffer": 2.25, "scenario_minimum": 2.25 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "directional_buffer": 1.1981916788234912, "scenario_minimum": 1.1981916788234912 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "directional_buffer": 4.162499999999994, "scenario_minimum": 4.162499999999994 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "directional_buffer": 4.162499999999994, "scenario_minimum": 4.162499999999994 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "directional_buffer": 4.162499999999994, "stressed_buffer": 1.1624999999999943 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "directional_buffer": 4.162499999999994, "stressed_buffer": 1.1624999999999943 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.6725, 22.54833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 5.720833333333331, "stressed_buffer": 2.7208333333333314 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.6725, 22.548333333333332 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.541666666666664, 21.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.5, 24.2 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.151666666666667, -1.6516666666666668 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=West+Lafayette&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=40.4447&textField2=-86.9119&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T20:00:00-04:00", "window": "A chance of showers before 1am, then a slight chance of showers after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 7 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.", "maxForecastGustMph": 18, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -12.682500000000001, "combined": 54.662499999999994, "spread_buffer": -10.182500000000001, "total_difference": 4.162499999999994 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -12.682500000000001, "combined": 54.662499999999994, "spread_buffer": -10.182500000000001, "total_difference": 4.162499999999994 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401858486", "matchup": "Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Minnesota Golden Gophers", "line": -2.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858486", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.794481+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.973029+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 50.5, "under_line": 50.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": 120.0, "away_ml": -142.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 10.182500000000001, "production_adjusted": 10.182500000000001, "minimum_all_scenarios": 8.624166666666671, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "directional_buffer": 3.75, "scenario_minimum": 3.75 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "directional_buffer": -2.851282524563537, "scenario_minimum": -2.851282524563537 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "directional_buffer": 10.182500000000001, "scenario_minimum": 10.182500000000001 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "directional_buffer": 10.182500000000001, "scenario_minimum": 10.182500000000001 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.6725, 22.54833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 8.624166666666671, "stressed_buffer": 5.624166666666671 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "directional_buffer": 10.182500000000001, "stressed_buffer": 7.182500000000001 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.6725, 22.54833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 8.624166666666671, "stressed_buffer": 5.624166666666671 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.6725, 22.548333333333332 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.541666666666664, 21.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.5, 24.2 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.151666666666667, -1.6516666666666668 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=West+Lafayette&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=40.4447&textField2=-86.9119&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T20:00:00-04:00", "window": "A chance of showers before 1am, then a slight chance of showers after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 7 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.", "maxForecastGustMph": 18, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401858486", "matchup": "Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 50.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858486", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.794481+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.973029+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 50.5, "under_line": 50.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": 120.0, "away_ml": -142.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 4.162499999999994, "production_adjusted": 4.162499999999994, "minimum_all_scenarios": 4.162499999999994, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "directional_buffer": 2.25, "scenario_minimum": 2.25 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "directional_buffer": 1.1981916788234912, "scenario_minimum": 1.1981916788234912 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "directional_buffer": 4.162499999999994, "scenario_minimum": 4.162499999999994 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "directional_buffer": 4.162499999999994, "scenario_minimum": 4.162499999999994 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "directional_buffer": 4.162499999999994, "stressed_buffer": 1.1624999999999943 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "directional_buffer": 4.162499999999994, "stressed_buffer": 1.1624999999999943 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 33.6725, 22.54833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 5.720833333333331, "stressed_buffer": 2.7208333333333314 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.6725, 22.548333333333332 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.541666666666664, 21.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.5, 24.2 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.151666666666667, -1.6516666666666668 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=West+Lafayette&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=40.4447&textField2=-86.9119&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T20:00:00-04:00", "window": "A chance of showers before 1am, then a slight chance of showers after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 7 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.", "maxForecastGustMph": 18, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401868054", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868054", "date": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "5440", "fullName": "Wildcat Stadium (TX)", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Abilene", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2110", "away_name": "Central Arkansas Bears", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2000", "home_name": "Abilene Christian Wildcats", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.887445887445885, 29.582251082251084 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.887445887445885, 29.582251082251084 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.887445887445885, 29.582251082251084 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.5, 35.166666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 25.0, 29.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 14, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 29.571428571428573, 26.428571428571427 ], "current_rates": [ 20.666666666666668, 26.666666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25.0, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.0, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.879029240421524, 34.570119010798834 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.879029240421524, 34.570119010798834 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.879029240421524, 34.570119010798834 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.0, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.5, "pa": 35.166666666666664, "margin": -10.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752674", "401767379", "401767305", "401767132", "401767483", "401769869", "401767287", "401767302", "401767282", "401767254", "401767296", "401767247" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.0, "pa": 29.4, "margin": -4.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868070", "401868071", "401868072", "401868133", "401858237" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 29.571428571428573, "pa": 26.428571428571427, "margin": 3.142857142857146, "event_ids": [ "401762457", "401767238", "401756894", "401767239", "401767240", "401767241", "401767242", "401767243", "401767244", "401767245", "401767246", "401767247", "401833969", "401836216" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": -6.0, "event_ids": [ "401868049", "401856770", "401868050", "401868051", "401868052", "401868053" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.464285714285715, 32.36904761904762 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.833333333333336, 25.03333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.220952380952381, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.5, "pa": 35.166666666666664, "margin": -10.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752674", "401767379", "401767305", "401767132", "401767483", "401769869", "401767287", "401767302", "401767282", "401767254", "401767296", "401767247" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.0, "pa": 29.4, "margin": -4.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868070", "401868071", "401868072", "401868133", "401858237" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 29.571428571428573, "pa": 26.428571428571427, "margin": 3.142857142857146, "event_ids": [ "401762457", "401767238", "401756894", "401767239", "401767240", "401767241", "401767242", "401767243", "401767244", "401767245", "401767246", "401767247", "401833969", "401836216" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": -6.0, "event_ids": [ "401868049", "401856770", "401868050", "401868051", "401868052", "401868053" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.464285714285715, 32.36904761904762 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.833333333333336, 25.03333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.220952380952381, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868054", "matchup": "Central Arkansas Bears at Abilene Christian Wildcats", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Abilene Christian Wildcats: QB Tucker Parks, RB Rovaughn Banks Jr./Alex Broome/Deonte Dean, WR Raydrian Baltrip/Luke Moffitt/JC French-Love, TE Jayden York/Itty Henry; Central Arkansas Bears: QB Donovyn Omolo/Walker White, RB Jalen Washington/Chapman McKown/James Jointer, WR Dakarai Anderson/Ty Durham/Tyrell Pollard, TE Kealen Juniel/Que Tillman", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.612380952380956, 31.42214285714286 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.464285714285715, 32.36904761904762 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.833333333333336, 25.03333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.220952380952381, 2.7209523809523812 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 57, "def_drives": 54, "off_points_proxy": 134, "def_points_proxy": 119, "off_plays": 406, "off_yards": 2579, "def_plays": 372, "def_yards": 2482, "early_plays": 292, "early_yards": 1795, "explosive_plays": 35, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858237", "401868070", "401868071", "401868072", "401868133" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.3508771929824563, "def_ppd": 2.2037037037037037, "off_ypp": 6.352216748768473, "def_ypp": 6.672043010752688, "early_down_ypp": 6.147260273972603 }, "home": { "off_drives": 69, "def_drives": 71, "off_points_proxy": 110, "def_points_proxy": 167, "off_plays": 478, "off_yards": 2477, "def_plays": 482, "def_yards": 3081, "early_plays": 344, "early_yards": 1783, "explosive_plays": 38, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856770", "401868049", "401868050", "401868051", "401868052", "401868053" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.5942028985507246, "def_ppd": 2.352112676056338, "off_ypp": 5.182008368200837, "def_ypp": 6.3921161825726145, "early_down_ypp": 5.183139534883721 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2000", "teamName": "Abilene Christian Wildcats", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868053", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "West Florida Argonauts at Abilene Christian Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Wildcat Stadium (TX)", "address": { "city": "Abilene", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "79601", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2000", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "2000", "displayName": "Abilene Christian Wildcats" } }, { "id": "110242", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "110242", "displayName": "West Florida Argonauts" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://acusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2110", "teamName": "Central Arkansas Bears", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401858237", "date": "2026-09-26T19:00Z", "name": "Central Arkansas Bears at Florida State Seminoles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Doak Campbell Stadium", "address": { "city": "Tallahassee", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32304", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "52", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "52", "displayName": "Florida State Seminoles" } }, { "id": "2110", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "2110", "displayName": "Central Arkansas Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.208, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ucasports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Abilene. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Abilene&state=TX&site=SJT&textField1=32.4545&textField2=-99.739&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.925373+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 92. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 66. South southeast wind around 10 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868054", "matchup": "Central Arkansas Bears at Abilene Christian Wildcats", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://acusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Abilene&state=TX&site=SJT&textField1=32.4545&textField2=-99.739&e=0", "https://ucasports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868054", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868054", "date": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "5440", "fullName": "Wildcat Stadium (TX)", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Abilene", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2110", "away_name": "Central Arkansas Bears", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2000", "home_name": "Abilene Christian Wildcats", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.5, "pa": 35.166666666666664, "margin": -10.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752674", "401767379", "401767305", "401767132", "401767483", "401769869", "401767287", "401767302", "401767282", "401767254", "401767296", "401767247" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.0, "pa": 29.4, "margin": -4.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868070", "401868071", "401868072", "401868133", "401858237" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 29.571428571428573, "pa": 26.428571428571427, "margin": 3.142857142857146, "event_ids": [ "401762457", "401767238", "401756894", "401767239", "401767240", "401767241", "401767242", "401767243", "401767244", "401767245", "401767246", "401767247", "401833969", "401836216" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": -6.0, "event_ids": [ "401868049", "401856770", "401868050", "401868051", "401868052", "401868053" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.464285714285715, 32.36904761904762 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.833333333333336, 25.03333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.220952380952381, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 4.427857142857146, 44.42785714285715 ], "home": [ 11.422142857142855, 51.42214285714286 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868054", "matchup": "Central Arkansas Bears at Abilene Christian Wildcats", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "5440", "guid": "6bf301e7-b522-3aa5-8269-02a88154e38f", "fullName": "Wildcat Stadium (TX)", "address": { "city": "Abilene", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "79601", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2000", "teamName": "Abilene Christian Wildcats", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868053", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "West Florida Argonauts at Abilene Christian Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Wildcat Stadium (TX)", "address": { "city": "Abilene", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "79601", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2000", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "2000", "displayName": "Abilene Christian Wildcats" } }, { "id": "110242", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "110242", "displayName": "West Florida Argonauts" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://acusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2110", "teamName": "Central Arkansas Bears", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401858237", "date": "2026-09-26T19:00Z", "name": "Central Arkansas Bears at Florida State Seminoles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Doak Campbell Stadium", "address": { "city": "Tallahassee", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32304", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "52", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "52", "displayName": "Florida State Seminoles" } }, { "id": "2110", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "2110", "displayName": "Central Arkansas Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.208, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ucasports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Abilene. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2000", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2110" ], "finding": "Abilene Christian Wildcats: QB Tucker Parks, RB Rovaughn Banks Jr./Alex Broome/Deonte Dean, WR Raydrian Baltrip/Luke Moffitt/JC French-Love, TE Jayden York/Itty Henry; Central Arkansas Bears: QB Donovyn Omolo/Walker White, RB Jalen Washington/Chapman McKown/James Jointer, WR Dakarai Anderson/Ty Durham/Tyrell Pollard, TE Kealen Juniel/Que Tillman" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2000", "teamName": "Abilene Christian Wildcats", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868053", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "West Florida Argonauts at Abilene Christian Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Wildcat Stadium (TX)", "address": { "city": "Abilene", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "79601", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2000", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "2000", "displayName": "Abilene Christian Wildcats" } }, { "id": "110242", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "110242", "displayName": "West Florida Argonauts" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://acusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2110", "teamName": "Central Arkansas Bears", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401858237", "date": "2026-09-26T19:00Z", "name": "Central Arkansas Bears at Florida State Seminoles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Doak Campbell Stadium", "address": { "city": "Tallahassee", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32304", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "52", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "52", "displayName": "Florida State Seminoles" } }, { "id": "2110", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "2110", "displayName": "Central Arkansas Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.208, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ucasports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Abilene. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Abilene&state=TX&site=SJT&textField1=32.4545&textField2=-99.739&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.925373+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 92. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 66. South southeast wind around 10 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.612380952380956, 31.42214285714286 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.464285714285715, 32.36904761904762 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.833333333333336, 25.03333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.220952380952381, 2.7209523809523812 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Central Arkansas Bears at Abilene Christian Wildcats", "market": { "id": "401868054", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868054", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.828481+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.981753+00:00", "home_line": -9.5, "away_line": 9.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -352.0, "away_ml": 265.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -9.5, "average_total": 51.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 4.694805194805198, "combined": 54.46969696969697, "spread_buffer": -4.805194805194802, "total_difference": 2.969696969696969 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 4.694805194805198, "combined": 54.46969696969697, "spread_buffer": -4.805194805194802, "total_difference": 2.969696969696969 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 13.69108977037731, "combined": 55.44914825122036, "spread_buffer": 4.19108977037731, "total_difference": 3.9491482512203575 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 13.69108977037731, "combined": 55.44914825122036, "spread_buffer": 4.19108977037731, "total_difference": 3.9491482512203575 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 6.994285714285709, "combined": 55.85, "spread_buffer": -2.5057142857142907, "total_difference": 4.350000000000001 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.994285714285709, "combined": 55.85, "spread_buffer": -2.5057142857142907, "total_difference": 4.350000000000001 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868054", "matchup": "Central Arkansas Bears at Abilene Christian Wildcats", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Central Arkansas Bears", "line": 9.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868054", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.828481+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.981753+00:00", "home_line": -9.5, "away_line": 9.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -352.0, "away_ml": 265.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 2.5057142857142907, "production_adjusted": 2.5057142857142907, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.5057142857142907, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.887445887445885, 29.582251082251084 ], "directional_buffer": 4.805194805194802, "scenario_minimum": 4.805194805194802 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.879029240421524, 34.570119010798834 ], "directional_buffer": -4.19108977037731, "scenario_minimum": -4.19108977037731 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "directional_buffer": 2.5057142857142907, "scenario_minimum": 2.5057142857142907 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "directional_buffer": 2.5057142857142907, "scenario_minimum": 2.5057142857142907 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "directional_buffer": 2.5057142857142907, "stressed_buffer": -0.49428571428570933 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "directional_buffer": 2.5057142857142907, "stressed_buffer": -0.49428571428570933 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 24.612380952380956, 31.422142857142862 ], "directional_buffer": 2.6902380952380938, "stressed_buffer": -0.30976190476190624 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.612380952380956, 31.42214285714286 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.464285714285715, 32.36904761904762 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.833333333333336, 25.03333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.220952380952381, 2.7209523809523812 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Abilene&state=TX&site=SJT&textField1=32.4545&textField2=-99.739&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:00:00-05:00", "window": "Mostly clear, with a low around 66. South southeast wind around 10 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868054", "matchup": "Central Arkansas Bears at Abilene Christian Wildcats", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 51.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868054", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.828481+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.981753+00:00", "home_line": -9.5, "away_line": 9.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -352.0, "away_ml": 265.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 4.350000000000001, "production_adjusted": 4.350000000000001, "minimum_all_scenarios": 4.350000000000001, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.887445887445885, 29.582251082251084 ], "directional_buffer": 2.969696969696969, "scenario_minimum": 2.969696969696969 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.879029240421524, 34.570119010798834 ], "directional_buffer": 3.9491482512203575, "scenario_minimum": 3.9491482512203575 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "directional_buffer": 4.350000000000001, "scenario_minimum": 4.350000000000001 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "directional_buffer": 4.350000000000001, "scenario_minimum": 4.350000000000001 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "directional_buffer": 4.350000000000001, "stressed_buffer": 1.3500000000000014 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "directional_buffer": 4.350000000000001, "stressed_buffer": 1.3500000000000014 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 24.612380952380956, 31.422142857142862 ], "directional_buffer": 4.534523809523819, "stressed_buffer": 1.5345238095238187 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.612380952380956, 31.42214285714286 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.464285714285715, 32.36904761904762 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.833333333333336, 25.03333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.220952380952381, 2.7209523809523812 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Abilene&state=TX&site=SJT&textField1=32.4545&textField2=-99.739&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:00:00-05:00", "window": "Mostly clear, with a low around 66. South southeast wind around 10 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 6.994285714285709, "combined": 55.85, "spread_buffer": -2.5057142857142907, "total_difference": 4.350000000000001 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.994285714285709, "combined": 55.85, "spread_buffer": -2.5057142857142907, "total_difference": 4.350000000000001 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868054", "matchup": "Central Arkansas Bears at Abilene Christian Wildcats", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Central Arkansas Bears", "line": 9.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868054", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.828481+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.981753+00:00", "home_line": -9.5, "away_line": 9.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -352.0, "away_ml": 265.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 2.5057142857142907, "production_adjusted": 2.5057142857142907, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.5057142857142907, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.887445887445885, 29.582251082251084 ], "directional_buffer": 4.805194805194802, "scenario_minimum": 4.805194805194802 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.879029240421524, 34.570119010798834 ], "directional_buffer": -4.19108977037731, "scenario_minimum": -4.19108977037731 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "directional_buffer": 2.5057142857142907, "scenario_minimum": 2.5057142857142907 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "directional_buffer": 2.5057142857142907, "scenario_minimum": 2.5057142857142907 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "directional_buffer": 2.5057142857142907, "stressed_buffer": -0.49428571428570933 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "directional_buffer": 2.5057142857142907, "stressed_buffer": -0.49428571428570933 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 24.612380952380956, 31.422142857142862 ], "directional_buffer": 2.6902380952380938, "stressed_buffer": -0.30976190476190624 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.612380952380956, 31.42214285714286 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401868054", "matchup": "Central Arkansas Bears at Abilene Christian Wildcats", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 51.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868054", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.828481+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.981753+00:00", "home_line": -9.5, "away_line": 9.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -352.0, "away_ml": 265.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 4.350000000000001, "production_adjusted": 4.350000000000001, "minimum_all_scenarios": 4.350000000000001, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.887445887445885, 29.582251082251084 ], "directional_buffer": 2.969696969696969, "scenario_minimum": 2.969696969696969 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.879029240421524, 34.570119010798834 ], "directional_buffer": 3.9491482512203575, "scenario_minimum": 3.9491482512203575 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "directional_buffer": 4.350000000000001, "scenario_minimum": 4.350000000000001 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "directional_buffer": 4.350000000000001, "scenario_minimum": 4.350000000000001 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "directional_buffer": 4.350000000000001, "stressed_buffer": 1.3500000000000014 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "directional_buffer": 4.350000000000001, "stressed_buffer": 1.3500000000000014 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 24.612380952380956, 31.422142857142862 ], "directional_buffer": 4.534523809523819, "stressed_buffer": 1.5345238095238187 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.612380952380956, 31.42214285714286 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.81888357650144, 32.48214918064341 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.81888357650144, 32.48214918064341 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.81888357650144, 32.48214918064341 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.0, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.0, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 13.0, "event_ids": [ "401757221", "401767455", "401767426", "401752710", "401767523", "401767492", "401767521", "401767472", "401767464", "401767487", "401767481", "401767520", "401836095" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 30.8, "margin": 1.5999999999999979, "event_ids": [ "401868315", "401868316", "401868150", "401868317", "401868318" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 39.583333333333336, "pa": 18.833333333333332, "margin": 20.750000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767526", "401767432", "401767527", "401767528", "401767523", "401767469", "401767485", "401767478", "401767525", "401767518", "401767495", "401767467" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.4, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 5.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868245", "401862700", "401868246", "401868247", "401868248" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.916666666666664, 28.791666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.799999999999997, 28.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.1350000000000005, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.0, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 13.0, "event_ids": [ "401757221", "401767455", "401767426", "401752710", "401767523", "401767492", "401767521", "401767472", "401767464", "401767487", "401767481", "401767520", "401836095" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 30.8, "margin": 1.5999999999999979, "event_ids": [ "401868315", "401868316", "401868150", "401868317", "401868318" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 39.583333333333336, "pa": 18.833333333333332, "margin": 20.750000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767526", "401767432", "401767527", "401767528", "401767523", "401767469", "401767485", "401767478", "401767525", "401767518", "401767495", "401767467" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.4, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 5.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868245", "401862700", "401868246", "401868247", "401868248" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.916666666666664, 28.791666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.799999999999997, 28.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.1350000000000005, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401868249", "matchup": "SE Louisiana Lions at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: QB Aidan Jakobsohn/Garret Rangel, RB TJ Dement/Brennan Carroll/Broderick Taylor, WR Jaydon Smith/Kyran Lee/Corey Holmes, TE no primary receiver established; SE Louisiana Lions: QB Kyle Lowe/Issac Mooring III, RB Deantre Jackson/Calvin Smith Jr./Chad Elzy Jr., WR Dkhai Joseph/Tristan Goodly/Desmen Jefferson, TE Lonnie Shinn", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.664999999999996, 31.330833333333334 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.916666666666664, 28.791666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.799999999999997, 28.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.1350000000000005, 2.6350000000000007 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 144, "def_points_proxy": 151, "off_plays": 384, "off_yards": 2326, "def_plays": 445, "def_yards": 3007, "early_plays": 275, "early_yards": 1659, "explosive_plays": 31, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868150", "401868315", "401868316", "401868317", "401868318" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.440677966101695, "def_ppd": 2.4754098360655736, "off_ypp": 6.057291666666667, "def_ypp": 6.757303370786516, "early_down_ypp": 6.032727272727273 }, "home": { "off_drives": 63, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 132, "def_points_proxy": 99, "off_plays": 455, "off_yards": 2976, "def_plays": 408, "def_yards": 2203, "early_plays": 316, "early_yards": 1968, "explosive_plays": 46, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862700", "401868245", "401868246", "401868247", "401868248" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.0952380952380953, "def_ppd": 1.596774193548387, "off_ypp": 6.5406593406593405, "def_ypp": 5.3995098039215685, "early_down_ypp": 6.227848101265823 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "292", "teamName": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868248", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at East Texas A&M Lions", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX)", "address": { "city": "Commerce", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "75428", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2837", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "2837", "displayName": "East Texas A&M Lions" } }, { "id": "292", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 17.0, "displayValue": "17" }, "team": { "id": "292", "displayName": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goutrgv.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2545", "teamName": "SE Louisiana Lions", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868318", "date": "2026-09-26T23:00Z", "name": "SE Louisiana Lions at Northwestern State Demons", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Turpin Stadium", "address": { "city": "Natchitoches", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "71457", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2466", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2466", "displayName": "Northwestern State Demons" } }, { "id": "2545", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 52.0, "displayValue": "52" }, "team": { "id": "2545", "displayName": "SE Louisiana Lions" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://lionsports.net/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Edinburg. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Edinburg&state=TX&site=BRO&textField1=26.2958&textField2=-98.1649&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.993874+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 92. Light and variable wind becoming east southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 74. East southeast wind 5 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868249", "matchup": "SE Louisiana Lions at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Edinburg&state=TX&site=BRO&textField1=26.2958&textField2=-98.1649&e=1", "https://goutrgv.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "https://lionsports.net/sports/football/schedule/2026" ], "tu": { "id": "401868249", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868249", "date": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "6006", "fullName": "Robert and Janet Vackar Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Edinburg", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2545", "away_name": "SE Louisiana Lions", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "292", "home_name": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.0, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 13.0, "event_ids": [ "401757221", "401767455", "401767426", "401752710", "401767523", "401767492", "401767521", "401767472", "401767464", "401767487", "401767481", "401767520", "401836095" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 30.8, "margin": 1.5999999999999979, "event_ids": [ "401868315", "401868316", "401868150", "401868317", "401868318" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 39.583333333333336, "pa": 18.833333333333332, "margin": 20.750000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767526", "401767432", "401767527", "401767528", "401767523", "401767469", "401767485", "401767478", "401767525", "401767518", "401767495", "401767467" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.4, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 5.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868245", "401862700", "401868246", "401868247", "401868248" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.916666666666664, 28.791666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.799999999999997, 28.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.1350000000000005, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 4.723333333333329, 44.72333333333333 ], "home": [ 11.330833333333334, 51.33083333333333 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401868249", "matchup": "SE Louisiana Lions at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "6006", "guid": "1fb3603d-bc71-3632-a038-92556936c4f2", "fullName": "Robert and Janet Vackar Stadium", "address": { "city": "Edinburg", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" }, "grass": true, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "292", "teamName": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868248", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at East Texas A&M Lions", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX)", "address": { "city": "Commerce", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "75428", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2837", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "2837", "displayName": "East Texas A&M Lions" } }, { "id": "292", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 17.0, "displayValue": "17" }, "team": { "id": "292", "displayName": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goutrgv.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2545", "teamName": "SE Louisiana Lions", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868318", "date": "2026-09-26T23:00Z", "name": "SE Louisiana Lions at Northwestern State Demons", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Turpin Stadium", "address": { "city": "Natchitoches", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "71457", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2466", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2466", "displayName": "Northwestern State Demons" } }, { "id": "2545", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 52.0, "displayValue": "52" }, "team": { "id": "2545", "displayName": "SE Louisiana Lions" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://lionsports.net/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Edinburg. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#292", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2545" ], "finding": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: QB Aidan Jakobsohn/Garret Rangel, RB TJ Dement/Brennan Carroll/Broderick Taylor, WR Jaydon Smith/Kyran Lee/Corey Holmes, TE no primary receiver established; SE Louisiana Lions: QB Kyle Lowe/Issac Mooring III, RB Deantre Jackson/Calvin Smith Jr./Chad Elzy Jr., WR Dkhai Joseph/Tristan Goodly/Desmen Jefferson, TE Lonnie Shinn" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "292", "teamName": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868248", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at East Texas A&M Lions", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX)", "address": { "city": "Commerce", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "75428", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2837", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "2837", "displayName": "East Texas A&M Lions" } }, { "id": "292", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 17.0, "displayValue": "17" }, "team": { "id": "292", "displayName": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goutrgv.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2545", "teamName": "SE Louisiana Lions", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868318", "date": "2026-09-26T23:00Z", "name": "SE Louisiana Lions at Northwestern State Demons", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Turpin Stadium", "address": { "city": "Natchitoches", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "71457", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2466", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2466", "displayName": "Northwestern State Demons" } }, { "id": "2545", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 52.0, "displayValue": "52" }, "team": { "id": "2545", "displayName": "SE Louisiana Lions" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://lionsports.net/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Edinburg. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Edinburg&state=TX&site=BRO&textField1=26.2958&textField2=-98.1649&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.993874+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 92. Light and variable wind becoming east southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 74. East southeast wind 5 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.664999999999996, 31.330833333333334 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.916666666666664, 28.791666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.799999999999997, 28.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.1350000000000005, 2.6350000000000007 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "SE Louisiana Lions at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros", "market": { "id": "401868249", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868249", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.880767+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.024644+00:00", "home_line": 4.0, "away_line": -4.0, "home_line_price": -111.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 55.5, "under_line": 55.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 135.0, "away_ml": -168.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 4.0, "average_total": 55.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 4.431818181818183, "combined": 54.47727272727272, "spread_buffer": 8.431818181818183, "total_difference": -1.0227272727272805 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 4.431818181818183, "combined": 54.47727272727272, "spread_buffer": 8.431818181818183, "total_difference": -1.0227272727272805 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 11.66326560414197, "combined": 53.30103275714485, "spread_buffer": 15.66326560414197, "total_difference": -2.198967242855147 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 11.66326560414197, "combined": 53.30103275714485, "spread_buffer": 15.66326560414197, "total_difference": -2.198967242855147 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 6.607500000000005, "combined": 56.05416666666666, "spread_buffer": 10.607500000000005, "total_difference": 0.55416666666666 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.607500000000005, "combined": 56.05416666666666, "spread_buffer": 10.607500000000005, "total_difference": 0.55416666666666 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401868249", "matchup": "SE Louisiana Lions at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros", "line": 4.0, "price": -111.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868249", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.880767+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.024644+00:00", "home_line": 4.0, "away_line": -4.0, "home_line_price": -111.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 55.5, "under_line": 55.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 135.0, "away_ml": -168.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 10.607500000000005, "production_adjusted": 10.607500000000005, "minimum_all_scenarios": 9.665833333333342, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.02272727272727, 29.454545454545453 ], "directional_buffer": 8.431818181818183, "scenario_minimum": 8.431818181818183 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.81888357650144, 32.48214918064341 ], "directional_buffer": 15.66326560414197, "scenario_minimum": 15.66326560414197 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 10.607500000000005, "scenario_minimum": 10.607500000000005 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 10.607500000000005, "scenario_minimum": 10.607500000000005 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.664999999999992, 31.330833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 9.665833333333342, "stressed_buffer": 6.665833333333342 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 10.607500000000005, "stressed_buffer": 7.607500000000005 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.664999999999992, 31.330833333333334 ], "directional_buffer": 9.665833333333342, "stressed_buffer": 6.665833333333342 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.664999999999996, 31.330833333333334 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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East southeast wind 5 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 21, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. 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Preseason DTD/rest decisions may materially reshape minutes; normalized 240 minute examples are sensitivity only.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898397", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.195071+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.399400+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898397", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.195071+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.399400+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0; home: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0. Primary training games=2796. Classic/current preseason excludes exhibitions from regular baseline; Primary explicitly models preseason with 0.35 training weight. 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Away 2 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": "0012600002", "startUTC": "2026-10-11T00:00:00Z", "source": "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10", "stage": "Preseason", "isNeutral": false }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "previousEventId": "401914123", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-07T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Indiana Pacers", "previousVenue": { "id": "432", "fullName": "Hilton Coliseum", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ames", "state": "IA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 3, "offDays": 2, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Kaseya Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Miami Heat", "previousEventId": "401898393", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "previousOpponent": "New Orleans Pelicans", "previousVenue": { "id": "3438", "fullName": "Kaseya Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Miami", "state": "FL" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Kaseya Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Kaseya Center; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Model winner conflict increases uncertainty; do not suppress dissent. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898397", "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10" ], "tu": { "id": "401898397", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401898397", "date": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "3438", "fullName": "Kaseya Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Miami", "state": "FL" } }, "away": "16", "away_name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "14", "home_name": "Miami Heat", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 118.0, "pa": 114.64634 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 120.86585, "pa": 118.53658 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 98.26829000000001, 138.26829 ], "home": [ 97.75609499999999, 137.756095 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat", "market": { "id": "401898397", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898397", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.909876+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.089704+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 234.5, "under_line": 234.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 102.0, "away_ml": -122.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 234.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 2.4878048780487774, "combined": 236.02439024390242, "spread_buffer": 3.9878048780487774, "total_difference": 1.5243902439024168 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 2.4878048780487774, "combined": 236.02439024390242, "spread_buffer": 3.9878048780487774, "total_difference": 1.5243902439024168 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.8074756276965616, "combined": 232.40388925450947, "spread_buffer": 2.3074756276965616, "total_difference": -2.0961107454905346 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.8074756276965616, "combined": 232.40388925450947, "spread_buffer": 2.3074756276965616, "total_difference": -2.0961107454905346 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; 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release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401898398", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401898398", "date": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1824", "fullName": "TD Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Boston", "state": "MA" } }, "away": "20", "away_name": "Philadelphia 76ers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2", "home_name": "Boston Celtics", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 110.01829268292683, 116.95731707317074 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.01829268292683, 116.95731707317074 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.01829268292683, 116.95731707317074 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 115.8780487804878, 116.0609756097561 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 114.85365853658537, 107.15853658536585 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 110.0, 117.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 110.0, 117.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 107.15907118810475, 115.28559278508186 ], "adjusted_score": [ 107.15907118810475, 115.28559278508186 ], "conditional_score": [ 107.15907118810475, 115.28559278508186 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "conditional_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "conditional_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.87805, "pa": 116.060974 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.85366, "pa": 107.15854 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 111.5, 115.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 111.5, 115.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Boston Celtics: Sam Hauser Day-To-Day, Ron Harper Jr. Day-To-Day, Payton Pritchard Day-To-Day, Mitchell Robinson Day-To-Day, Neemias Queta Day-To-Day | Philadelphia 76 ers: Dominick Barlow Day-To-Day, Anfernee Simons Day-To-Day, Adem Bona Day-To-Day, Ariel Hukporti Out, Tacko Fall Day-To-Day. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Preseason DTD/rest decisions may materially reshape minutes; normalized 240 minute examples are sensitivity only.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898398", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.198313+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.398368+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898398", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.198313+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.398368+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0; home: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0. Primary training games=2796. Classic/current preseason excludes exhibitions from regular baseline; Primary explicitly models preseason with 0.35 training weight. 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Away 1 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": "0012600013", "startUTC": "2026-10-11T00:00:00Z", "source": "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10", "stage": "Preseason", "isNeutral": false }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Philadelphia 76ers", "previousEventId": "401901823", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "previousOpponent": "Brooklyn Nets", "previousVenue": { "id": "3559", "fullName": "Barclays Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Brooklyn", "state": "NY" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to TD Garden; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Boston Celtics", "previousEventId": "401898392", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "previousVenue": { "id": "3417", "fullName": "Rocket Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Cleveland", "state": "OH" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to TD Garden; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at TD Garden; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. 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not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 6.939024390243915, "combined": 226.97560975609758, "spread_buffer": 1.4390243902439153, "total_difference": 6.475609756097583 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.939024390243915, "combined": 226.97560975609758, "spread_buffer": 1.4390243902439153, "total_difference": 6.475609756097583 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 8.126521596977113, "combined": 222.4446639731866, "spread_buffer": 2.6265215969771134, "total_difference": 1.944663973186607 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 8.126521596977113, "combined": 222.4446639731866, "spread_buffer": 2.6265215969771134, "total_difference": 1.944663973186607 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; 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release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401907994", "sport": "MLB", "identity": { "id": "401907994", "date": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "5", "fullName": "Progressive Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Cleveland", "state": "Ohio" } }, "away": "4", "away_name": "Chicago White Sox", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "Cleveland Guardians", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 4.2828125, 4.408545524691357 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.2828125, 4.408545524691357 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.2828125, 4.408545524691357 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 3.993827160493827, 4.580246913580247 ], "current_rates": [ 4.790123456790123, 4.444444444444445 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 3.9691358024691357, 4.006172839506172 ], "current_rates": [ 4.185185185185185, 4.117283950617284 ] } }, "display_base": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "accuracy": null, "wilson95": null, "window": "2026-10-09", "skips": 0, "reason": "No matched sport/stage observations in retained prospective cohort." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.8472225084012273, 3.806032909080149 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.8472225084012273, 3.806032909080149 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.8472225084012273, 3.806032909080149 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4952, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-09T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "4f747cf0558c554793e6382cad43b508c0d29e270654ff4d7742cc2d819c8c0d" }, "display_base": [ 4.0, 4.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 4.0, 4.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "accuracy": null, "wilson95": null, "window": "2026-10-09", "skips": 0, "reason": "No matched sport/stage observations in retained prospective cohort." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.790123456790123, "pa": 4.444444444444445, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/145/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 1, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "accuracy": null, "wilson95": null, "window": "2026-10-09", "skips": 0, "reason": "No matched sport/stage observations in retained prospective cohort." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.790123456790123, "pa": 4.444444444444445, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/145/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 1, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "accuracy": null, "wilson95": null, "window": "2026-10-09", "skips": 0, "reason": "No matched sport/stage observations in retained prospective cohort." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "lineup", "facts": [ "Actual batting orders and replacement opportunity conversion unconfirmed; no validated probability edge." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Cleveland Guardians: Rhys Hoskins 10-Day-IL, Colin Holderman 15-Day-IL, Andrew Walters Out | Chicago White Sox: Prelander Berroa 60-Day-IL, Joey Bart 10-Day-IL, Tanner Murray 60-Day-IL, Luis Castillo 15-Day-IL, Ky Bush 60-Day-IL. Today MLB starting order not posted; prior October 8 final lineup and current candidates retained. Hoskins 1 B/DH\u2192Lowe/Adell, Bart catcher\u2192Teel conditional; no confirmed PA.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401907994", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.687859+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.995793+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401907994", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.687859+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.995793+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 162 prior regular / 162 current regular; current weight 0.8438; home: 162 prior regular / 162 current regular; current weight 0.8438. Primary training games=4952. Full 2026 regular season informs baseline; postseason regime is explicit forPrimary and not mixed intoClassicregular rates. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-MLB.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Cleveland Guardians; Primary: Chicago White Sox; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Chicago White Sox; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Chicago White Sox. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -0.138889 to 0.125733. Winner disagreement preserved. Independent arithmetic max error 3.552713678800501 e-15. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401907994", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 3.552713678800501e-15, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 4.2828125, 4.408545524691357 ], "Primary": [ 3.8472225084012273, 3.806032909080149 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ] }, "winnerAgreement": false }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Postseason verified official MLB game typeD; official start 2026-10-10 08:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 849831, "startUTC": "2026-10-11T00:00:00Z", "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1.1/game/849831/feed/live", "stage": "D" }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Chicago White Sox", "previousEventId": "401907993", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T00:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Cleveland Guardians", "previousVenue": { "id": "4", "fullName": "Rate Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "Illinois" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Progressive Field; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "previousEventId": "401907993", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T00:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Chicago White Sox", "previousVenue": { "id": "4", "fullName": "Rate Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "Illinois" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Progressive Field; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Progressive Field outdoor. NWS grid hourly forecast for 8 pm ET: 67 \u00b0F, Mostly Cloudy, 9 mph SE, precipitation chance 3%. Retrieved 2026-10-10 T 10:16:43.400384+00:00. Forecast, not observed first-pitch weather; recheck delays. Registered score engines have no weather adjustment.", "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/CLE/84,65/forecast/hourly", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS: final batting order/opportunities unconfirmed; no live selection certified. Model winner conflict increases uncertainty; do not suppress dissent. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "PASS_UNCONFIRMED_LINEUP", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/CLE/84,65/forecast/hourly", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401907994", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1.1/game/849831/feed/live", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/145/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" ], "tu": { "id": "401907994", "sport": "MLB", "identity": { "id": "401907994", "date": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "5", "fullName": "Progressive Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Cleveland", "state": "Ohio" } }, "away": "4", "away_name": "Chicago White Sox", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "Cleveland Guardians", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.790123456790123, "pa": 4.444444444444445, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/145/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 1, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.45370370370370416, 8.453703703703704 ], "home": [ 0.3148148148148149, 8.314814814814815 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians", "market": { "id": "401907994", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401907994", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.945160+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.157498+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 158.0, "away_line_price": -193.0, "total": 7.0, "under_line": 7.0, "over_price": -120.0, "under_price": 100.0, "home_ml": -137.0, "away_ml": 114.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 7.0, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; 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release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "401927421", "sport": "UFC", "identity": { "id": "401927421", "date": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "away": "5212854", "away_name": "Malcolm Wellmaker", "home": "5212853", "home_name": "Otari Tanzilovi", "season_type": "MMA bout", "season": 2026, "venue": { "id": "6176", "fullName": "Meta APEX", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": true, "bout": { "id": "401927421", "cardId": "600061541", "card": "UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan", "date": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "fighters": [ { "id": "5212853", "name": "Otari Tanzilovi", "records": [ { "name": "overall", "abbreviation": "TOT", "type": "total", "summary": "10-2-0" } ], "order": 2, "homeAway": null }, { "id": "5212854", "name": "Malcolm Wellmaker", "records": [ { "name": "overall", "abbreviation": "TOT", "type": "total", "summary": "10-2-0" } ], "order": 1, "homeAway": null } ], "venue": { "id": "6176", "fullName": "Meta APEX", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "type": { "id": "970", "abbreviation": "Bantamweight" }, "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "-", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sat, October 10th at 8:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/10 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "format": { "regulation": { "periods": 3 } } }, "time_note": "Card segment start only; bout time not guaranteed." }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official October9 weigh-in list matches12bout card. Souza117, Bonfim163.5 and Ribeiro208.5 missed their class limits; their respective purse deductions are20%,25%,20%. These are weigh-in facts, not measured performance penalties. No team-trade pathway applies to independent UFC bouts." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official Meta APEX card: preliminaries5pmET, maincard8pmET; main event5rounds, others3. Segment start is not each bout start." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor Meta APEX; outdoor weather not a cage-score adjustment." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.ufc.com.br/news/official-weigh-results-ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-vegas-122", "https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-fight-night-october-10-2026" ], "other_review": { "bout": { "id": "401927421", "cardId": "600061541", "card": "UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan", "date": "2026-10-11T00:00Z", "fighters": [ { "id": "5212853", "name": "Otari Tanzilovi", "records": [ { "name": "overall", "abbreviation": "TOT", "type": "total", "summary": "10-2-0" } ], "order": 2, "homeAway": null }, { "id": "5212854", "name": "Malcolm Wellmaker", "records": [ { "name": "overall", "abbreviation": "TOT", "type": "total", "summary": "10-2-0" } ], "order": 1, "homeAway": null } ], "venue": { "id": "6176", "fullName": "Meta APEX", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "type": { "id": "970", "abbreviation": "Bantamweight" }, "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "-", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sat, October 10th at 8:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/10 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "format": { "regulation": { "periods": 3 } } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "Malcolm Wellmaker at Otari Tanzilovi", "market": { "id": "401927421", "quotes": [ { "provider": "BetUS", "provider_id": "betus", "url": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10 10:53:04 UTC", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "away_ml": -205, "home_ml": 170, "home_line": null, "away_line": null, "home_line_price": null, "away_line_price": null, "spread_applicable": false, "spread_complete": false, "total": 2.5, "under_line": 2.5, "over_price": -110, "under_price": -110, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true, "total_units": "rounds", "source_note": "BetUS main total only. BestFightOdds alternate propositions retained separately and excluded from averages. Official card segment times govern, not estimated sportsbook fight times.", "book_updated_utc": null } ], "average_home_line": null, "average_total": 2.5, "spread_quote_count": 0, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "original_endpoint_failure": "HTTP Error 404: Not Found", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "401898399", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "6270", "fullName": "Chase Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "San Francisco", "state": "CA" } }, "away": "23", "away_name": "Sacramento Kings", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "9", "home_name": "Golden State Warriors", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 111.58536585365854, 119.3048780487805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 111.58536585365854, 119.3048780487805 ], "conditional_score": [ 111.58536585365854, 119.3048780487805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 111.0, 121.0 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 114.60975609756098, 115.17073170731707 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 111.5, 119.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 111.5, 119.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 110.48723717784918, 117.41503362152974 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.48723717784918, 117.41503362152974 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.48723717784918, 117.41503362152974 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 110.5, 117.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 110.5, 117.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "adjusted_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "conditional_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 111.0, "pa": 121.0 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.60976, "pa": 115.17073 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 113.0, 118.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 113.0, 118.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "adjusted_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "conditional_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 111.0, "pa": 121.0 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.60976, "pa": 115.17073 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 113.0, 118.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 113.0, 118.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Golden State Warriors: Gui Santos Day-To-Day, Brandin Podziemski Day-To-Day, Gary Payton II Day-To-Day, Georges Niang Day-To-Day, De'Anthony Melton Day-To-Day | Sacramento Kings: Leaky Black Day-To-Day, Domantas Sabonis Day-To-Day, Keegan Murray Day-To-Day, Malik Monk Day-To-Day, Ben Simmons Day-To-Day. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Preseason DTD/rest decisions may materially reshape minutes; normalized 240 minute examples are sensitivity only.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.205902+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:26.426551+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.205902+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:26.426551+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0; home: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0. Primary training games=2796. Classic/current preseason excludes exhibitions from regular baseline; Primary explicitly models preseason with 0.35 training weight. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NBA.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Golden State Warriors; Primary: Golden State Warriors; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Golden State Warriors; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Golden State Warriors. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 4.719515 to 7.719512. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 5.684341886080802 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401898399", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 5.684341886080802e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 111.58536585365854, 119.3048780487805 ], "Primary": [ 110.48723717784918, 117.41503362152974 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "2026-27 preseason verified NBA.com; official start 2026-10-10 08:30 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 2 whole off days.", "official": { "id": "0012600014", "startUTC": "2026-10-11T00:30:00Z", "source": "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10", "stage": "Preseason", "isNeutral": false }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Sacramento Kings", "previousEventId": "401898717", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "previousOpponent": "Los Angeles Lakers", "previousVenue": { "id": "1841", "fullName": "crypto.com Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "CA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Chase Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Golden State Warriors", "previousEventId": "401914129", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Portland Trail Blazers", "previousVenue": { "id": "3423", "fullName": "Moda Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Portland", "state": "OR" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 3, "offDays": 2, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Chase Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Chase Center; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10" ], "tu": { "id": "401898399", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "6270", "fullName": "Chase Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "San Francisco", "state": "CA" } }, "away": "23", "away_name": "Sacramento Kings", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "9", "home_name": "Golden State Warriors", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 111.0, "pa": 121.0 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.60976, "pa": 115.17073 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 93.085365, 133.085365 ], "home": [ 97.80488, 137.80488 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors", "market": { "id": "401898399", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.100798+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.267711+00:00", "home_line": -4.5, "away_line": 4.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 229.5, "under_line": 229.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -205.0, "away_ml": 170.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -4.5, "average_total": 229.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 7.7195121951219505, "combined": 230.89024390243904, "spread_buffer": 3.2195121951219505, "total_difference": 1.390243902439039 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 7.7195121951219505, "combined": 230.89024390243904, "spread_buffer": 3.2195121951219505, "total_difference": 1.390243902439039 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 6.927796443680563, "combined": 227.90227079937893, "spread_buffer": 2.4277964436805632, "total_difference": -1.5977292006210746 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 6.927796443680563, "combined": 227.90227079937893, "spread_buffer": 2.4277964436805632, "total_difference": -1.5977292006210746 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 4.719515000000001, "combined": 230.890245, "spread_buffer": 0.21951500000000124, "total_difference": 1.390244999999993 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 4.719515000000001, "combined": 230.890245, "spread_buffer": 0.21951500000000124, "total_difference": 1.390244999999993 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 4.719515000000001, "combined": 230.890245, "spread_buffer": 0.21951500000000124, "total_difference": 1.390244999999993 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 4.719515000000001, "combined": 230.890245, "spread_buffer": 0.21951500000000124, "total_difference": 1.390244999999993 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "761854", "sport": "MLS", "identity": { "id": "761854", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 13846, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLS", "venue": { "id": "6538", "fullName": "Allianz Field", "indoor": null, "address": { "city": "Saint Paul, Minnesota", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "6077", "away_name": "Houston Dynamo FC", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "17362", "home_name": "Minnesota United FC", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 2 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-11T00:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Allianz Field" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 89. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 69. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/minvshou-10-10-2026/clubs", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/" ], "other_review": { "trades": [ { "player": "Aliyu Ibrahim", "position": "F", "date": "2026-03-12", "team": "Houston Dynamo FC", "team_id": "6077", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "Columbus Crew", "counterparty_id": "183", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "F - Aliyu Ibrahim (3/12/26 - trade from Columbus Crew)", "roster_identity": { "id": "287444", "name": "Ibrahim Aliyu", "roster_team": "Houston Dynamo FC", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/6077/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/287444/stats?team=6077&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-287444-6077.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "6077", "stats": { "STRT": "5", "FC": "12", "FA": "3", "YC": "0", "RC": "1", "G": "2", "A": "0", "SHOT": "11", "SOG": "2", "OF": "2" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "6077", "stats": { "STRT": "2", "FC": "6", "FA": "1", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "2", "SOG": "1", "OF": "4" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "6077", "stats": { "STRT": "33", "FC": "50", "FA": "21", "YC": "4", "RC": "0", "G": "6", "A": "6", "SHOT": "65", "SOG": "27", "OF": "1" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "6077", "stats": { "STRT": "2", "FC": "3", "FA": "0", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "2", "SOG": "1", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Jonathan Bond", "Lucas Halter", "Ant\u00f4nio Carlos", "Franco Negri", "Lawrence Ennali", "H\u00e9ctor Herrera", "Artur", "Mateusz Bogusz", "Ibrahim Aliyu", "Guilherme Augusto", "Agust\u00edn Bouzat" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761836", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "Sporting Kansas City at Houston Dynamo FC" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761836", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "287444", "name": "Ibrahim Aliyu", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": null, "post_trade_starts": "5", "post_last_match_role": "starter", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 212, "documented_new_team_starts": "5", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": null, "post_trade_starts": "5", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": null, "post_goals_plus_assists": 2.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Finishing, shot creation and pressing starts", "direction": "New role can displace reference XI opportunities", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.331323+00:00" }, { "player": "Duncan McGuire", "position": "F", "date": "2026-07-10", "team": "Houston Dynamo FC", "team_id": "6077", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "Orlando City", "counterparty_id": "12011", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "F - Duncan McGuire (7/10/26 - trade from Orlando City)", "roster_identity": { "id": "294071", "name": "Duncan McGuire", "roster_team": "Houston Dynamo FC", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/6077/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/294071/stats?team=6077&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-294071-6077.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "6077", "stats": { "STRT": "5", "FC": "6", "FA": "5", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "1", "SOG": "1", "OF": "1" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Jonathan Bond", "Lucas Halter", "Ant\u00f4nio Carlos", "Franco Negri", "Lawrence Ennali", "H\u00e9ctor Herrera", "Artur", "Mateusz Bogusz", "Ibrahim Aliyu", "Guilherme Augusto", "Agust\u00edn Bouzat" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761836", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "Sporting Kansas City at Houston Dynamo FC" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761836", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "294071", "name": "Duncan McGuire", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "4", "post_trade_starts": "5", "post_last_match_role": "substitute/bench", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 92, "documented_new_team_starts": "5", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": "4", "post_trade_starts": "5", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 2.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Finishing, shot creation and pressing starts", "direction": "New role can displace reference XI opportunities", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.331323+00:00" } ], "references": { "away": { "teamId": "6077", "team": "Houston Dynamo FC", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/6077/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761836", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:24.967260+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.551597+00:00", "event": { "id": "761836", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "Sporting Kansas City at Houston Dynamo FC" }, "referenceXI": [ "Jonathan Bond", "Lucas Halter", "Ant\u00f4nio Carlos", "Franco Negri", "Lawrence Ennali", "H\u00e9ctor Herrera", "Artur", "Mateusz Bogusz", "Ibrahim Aliyu", "Guilherme Augusto", "Agust\u00edn Bouzat" ], "formation": "4-4-2", "roster": [ { "id": "65434", "name": "Jonathan Bond", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "saves": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "266281", "name": "Lucas Halter", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "196842", "name": "Ant\u00f4nio Carlos", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right 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"position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "219466", "name": "Diadie Samassekou", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." }, "home": { "teamId": "17362", "team": "Minnesota United FC", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/17362/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761837", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.011936+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.502104+00:00", "event": { "id": "761837", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "Minnesota United FC at Seattle Sounders FC" }, "referenceXI": [ "Drake Callender", "Michael Boxall", "Morris Duggan", "Jefferson D\u00edaz", "Wil Trapp", "Owen Gene", "Tom\u00e1s Chancalay", "Anthony Markanich", "Kyle Duncan", "Marcus Caldeira", "Kelvin Yeboah" ], "formation": "3-4-1-2", "roster": [ { "id": "245083", "name": "Drake Callender", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 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Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "Houston Dynamo FC at Minnesota United FC", "market": { "id": "761854", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761854", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.136546+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.290582+00:00", "home_line": -0.5, "away_line": 0.5, "home_line_price": 100.0, "away_line_price": -140.0, "total": 2.5, "under_line": 2.5, "over_price": -140.0, "under_price": 110.0, "home_ml": 105.0, "away_ml": 230.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "draw_ml": 250.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "moneyline_scope": "Regulation three-way including draw" } ], "average_home_line": -0.5, "average_total": 2.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "761855", "sport": "MLS", "identity": { "id": "761855", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 13846, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLS", "venue": { "id": "6587", "fullName": "Sporting Park", "indoor": null, "address": { "city": "Kansas City, Kansas", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "9723", "away_name": "Portland Timbers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "186", "home_name": "Sporting Kansas City", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 4 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-11T00:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Sporting Park" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 88. South wind 6 to 10 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 65. South southeast wind around 6 mph. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/skcvspor-10-10-2026/clubs", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/" ], "other_review": { "trades": [ { "player": "Ronald Hern\u00e1ndez", "position": "D", "date": "2026-09-02", "team": "Portland Timbers", "team_id": "9723", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "Atlanta United", "counterparty_id": "18418", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "D - Ronald Hern\u00e1ndez (9/2/26 - trade from Atlanta United)", "roster_identity": { "id": "240783", "name": "Ronald Hern\u00e1ndez", "roster_team": "Portland Timbers", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/9723/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/240783/stats?team=9723&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-240783-9723.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "9723", "stats": { "STRT": "3", "FC": "1", "FA": "3", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "1", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "James Pantemis", "Kamal Miller", "Eric Miller", "Jimer Fory", "Ronald Hern\u00e1ndez", "David Da Costa", "Diego Char\u00e1", "Cole Bassett", "Vincent Janssen", "Kristoffer Velde", "Ariel Lassiter" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761843", "date": "2026-09-27T02:30Z", "name": "Portland Timbers at San Jose Earthquakes" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761843", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "240783", "name": "Ronald Hern\u00e1ndez", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "2", "post_trade_starts": "3", "post_last_match_role": "starter", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 38, "documented_new_team_starts": "3", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": "2", "post_trade_starts": "3", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Build-up width and set-piece contribution", "direction": "New role can displace reference XI opportunities", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Space/duel coverage and line coordination", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.343762+00:00" }, { "player": "Joel Waterman", "position": "D", "date": "2026-09-03", "team": "Portland Timbers", "team_id": "9723", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "Chicago Fire FC", "counterparty_id": "182", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "D - Joel Waterman (9/3/26 - trade from Chicago Fire FC)", "roster_identity": { "id": "236890", "name": "Joel Waterman", "roster_team": "Portland Timbers", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/9723/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/236890/stats?team=9723&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-236890-9723.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "9723", "stats": { "STRT": "2", "FC": "2", "FA": "4", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "1", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "James Pantemis", "Kamal Miller", "Eric Miller", "Jimer Fory", "Ronald Hern\u00e1ndez", "David Da Costa", "Diego Char\u00e1", "Cole Bassett", "Vincent Janssen", "Kristoffer Velde", "Ariel Lassiter" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761843", "date": "2026-09-27T02:30Z", "name": "Portland Timbers at San Jose Earthquakes" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761843", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "12", "post_trade_starts": "2", "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 37, "documented_new_team_starts": "2", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": "12", "post_trade_starts": "2", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. 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Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Build-up width and set-piece contribution", "direction": "New role can displace reference XI opportunities", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Space/duel coverage and line coordination", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.343762+00:00" }, { "player": "Owen Wolff", "position": "M", "date": "2026-08-26", "team": "Sporting Kansas City", "team_id": "186", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "Austin FC", "counterparty_id": "20906", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "M - Owen Wolff (8/26/26 - trade from Austin FC)", "roster_identity": { "id": "304535", "name": "Owen Wolff", "roster_team": "Sporting Kansas City", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/186/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/304535/stats?team=186&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-304535-186.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "186", "stats": { "STRT": "0", "FC": "2", "FA": "1", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "1", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Stefan Cleveland", "Wyatt Meyer", "Jansen Miller", "Emir Karic", "Justin Reynolds", "Lasse Berg Johnsen", "Kwaku Agyabeng", "Calvin Harris", "Andr\u00e9 Luiz", "Stephen Afrifa", "Taylor Calheira" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761798", "date": "2026-10-02T01:30Z", "name": "Sporting Kansas City at Seattle Sounders FC" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761798", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Owen Wolff - Quad (Out)" ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "4", "post_trade_starts": "0", "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 45, "documented_new_team_starts": "0", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": "4", "post_trade_starts": "0", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 1.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Progression, passing and chance creation", "direction": "New role can displace reference XI opportunities", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.354347+00:00" }, { "player": "Dejan Jovelji\u0107", "position": "F", "date": "2026-08-25", "team": "Sporting Kansas City", "team_id": "186", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "Seattle Sounders FC", "counterparty_id": "9726", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "F - Dejan Jovelji\u0107 (8/25/26 - trade to Seattle Sounders FC)", "roster_identity": { "id": "240110", "name": "Dejan Joveljic", "roster_team": "Seattle Sounders FC", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/9726/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/240110/stats?team=186&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-240110-186.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "186", "stats": { "STRT": "20", "FC": "25", "FA": "22", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "8", "A": "2", "SHOT": "39", "SOG": "22", "OF": "9" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "186", "stats": { "STRT": "31", "FC": "38", "FA": "30", "YC": "4", "RC": "0", "G": "18", "A": "2", "SHOT": "68", "SOG": "41", "OF": "11" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Stefan Cleveland", "Wyatt Meyer", "Jansen Miller", "Emir Karic", "Justin Reynolds", "Lasse Berg Johnsen", "Kwaku Agyabeng", "Calvin Harris", "Andr\u00e9 Luiz", "Stephen Afrifa", "Taylor Calheira" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761798", "date": "2026-10-02T01:30Z", "name": "Sporting Kansas City at Seattle Sounders FC" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761798", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "20", "post_trade_starts": "4", "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 46, "documented_new_team_starts": "4", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": "20", "post_trade_starts": "4", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 10.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 3.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Finishing, shot creation and pressing starts", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.361231+00:00" } ], "references": { "away": { "teamId": "9723", "team": "Portland Timbers", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/9723/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761843", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.477991+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.978071+00:00", "event": { "id": "761843", "date": "2026-09-27T02:30Z", "name": "Portland Timbers at San Jose Earthquakes" }, "referenceXI": [ "James Pantemis", "Kamal Miller", "Eric Miller", "Jimer Fory", "Ronald Hern\u00e1ndez", "David Da Costa", "Diego Char\u00e1", "Cole Bassett", "Vincent Janssen", "Kristoffer Velde", "Ariel Lassiter" ], "formation": "4-2-3-1", "roster": [ { "id": "257619", "name": "James Pantemis", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "saves": 5.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "249756", "name": "Kamal Miller", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "187782", "name": "Eric Miller", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "301463", "name": "Jimer Fory", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 3.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "240783", "name": "Ronald Hern\u00e1ndez", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "303579", "name": "David Da Costa", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Attacking Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 2.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "71042", "name": "Diego Char\u00e1", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "277392", "name": "Cole Bassett", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "188402", "name": "Vincent Janssen", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 2.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "255418", "name": "Kristoffer Velde", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Attacking Midfielder Left", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 5.0 } }, { "id": "222765", "name": "Ariel Lassiter", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Attacking Midfielder Right", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "277661", "name": "Hunter Sulte", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "29447", "name": "Ian Smith", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "386932", "name": "Eric Izoita", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "391712", "name": "Gage Guerra", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "297127", "name": "Alexander Aravena", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "156564", "name": "Joao Ortiz", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "340652", "name": "Alex Bonetig", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "315294", "name": "Antony", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "371458", "name": "Sawyer Jura", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." }, "home": { "teamId": "186", "team": "Sporting Kansas City", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/186/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761798", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.606339+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:26.143979+00:00", "event": { "id": "761798", "date": "2026-10-02T01:30Z", "name": "Sporting Kansas City at Seattle Sounders FC" }, "referenceXI": [ "Stefan Cleveland", "Wyatt Meyer", "Jansen Miller", "Emir Karic", "Justin Reynolds", "Lasse Berg Johnsen", "Kwaku Agyabeng", "Calvin Harris", "Andr\u00e9 Luiz", "Stephen Afrifa", "Taylor Calheira" ], "formation": "4-4-2", "roster": [ { "id": "249729", "name": "Stefan Cleveland", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "saves": 5.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "389905", "name": "Wyatt Meyer", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "286804", "name": "Jansen Miller", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "274906", "name": "Emir Karic", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "357792", "name": "Justin Reynolds", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "286434", "name": "Lasse Berg Johnsen", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "417725", "name": "Kwaku Agyabeng", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "293695", "name": "Calvin Harris", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 4.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 4.0 } }, { "id": "324574", "name": "Andr\u00e9 Luiz", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 2.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 5.0 } }, { "id": "362459", "name": "Stephen Afrifa", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 4.0 } }, { "id": "381688", "name": "Taylor Calheira", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 2.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 2.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 4.0 } }, { "id": "180038", "name": "Alexander Cunningham", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "286194", "name": "Zorhan Bassong", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "217816", "name": "Ian James", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "303894", "name": "Jayden Reid", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "272505", "name": "John Pulskamp", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "402322", "name": "Seymour Reid", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "259070", "name": "Shapi Suleymanov", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "315921", "name": "Ethan Bartlow", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "395357", "name": "Jacob Bartlett", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "Portland Timbers at Sporting Kansas City", "market": { "id": "761855", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761855", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.168427+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.337117+00:00", "home_line": -0.5, "away_line": 0.5, "home_line_price": 125.0, "away_line_price": -175.0, "total": 3.5, "under_line": 3.5, "over_price": -120.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 135.0, "away_ml": 150.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "draw_ml": 300.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "moneyline_scope": "Regulation three-way including draw" } ], "average_home_line": -0.5, "average_total": 3.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "761856", "sport": "MLS", "identity": { "id": "761856", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 13846, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLS", "venue": { "id": "8673", "fullName": "Q2 Stadium", "indoor": null, "address": { "city": "Austin, Texas", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "18986", "away_name": "Nashville SC", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "20906", "home_name": "Austin FC", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 3 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-11T00:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Q2 Stadium" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 67. South wind around 5 mph. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/atxvsnsh-10-10-2026/clubs", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/" ], "other_review": { "trades": [ { "player": "Dani Pereira", "position": "M", "date": "2026-07-02", "team": "Austin FC", "team_id": "20906", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "CF Montr\u00e9al", "counterparty_id": "9720", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "M - Dani Pereira (7/2/26 - trade to CF Montr\u00e9al)", "roster_identity": { "id": "316077", "name": "Dani Pereira", "roster_team": "CF Montr\u00e9al", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/9720/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/316077/stats?team=20906&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-316077-20906.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "20906", "stats": { "STRT": "4", "FC": "7", "FA": "11", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "1", "SHOT": "3", "SOG": "1", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "20906", "stats": { "STRT": "23", "FC": "48", "FA": "39", "YC": "8", "RC": "0", "G": "1", "A": "5", "SHOT": "24", "SOG": "4", "OF": "2" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "20906", "stats": { "STRT": "2", "FC": "2", "FA": "5", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "1", "A": "0", "SHOT": "2", "SOG": "1", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "20906", "stats": { "STRT": "23", "FC": "37", "FA": "50", "YC": "9", "RC": "0", "G": "1", "A": "4", "SHOT": "11", "SOG": "3", "OF": "8" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Damian Las", "Brendan Hines-Ike", "Jon Bell", "Mikkel Desler", "Besard Sabovic", "Ervin Torres", "Zan Kolmanic", "Jon Gallagher", "Brandon V\u00e1zquez", "Christian Ram\u00edrez", "Facundo Torres" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761839", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "San Diego FC at Austin FC" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761839", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "4", "post_trade_starts": "4", "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 100, "documented_new_team_starts": "4", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": "4", "post_trade_starts": "4", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 1.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Progression, passing and chance creation", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.321833+00:00" }, { "player": "Owen Wolff", "position": "M", "date": "2026-08-26", "team": "Austin FC", "team_id": "20906", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "Sporting Kansas City", "counterparty_id": "186", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "M - Owen Wolff (8/26/26 - trade to Sporting Kansas City)", "roster_identity": { "id": "304535", "name": "Owen Wolff", "roster_team": "Sporting Kansas City", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/186/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/304535/stats?team=20906&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-304535-20906.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "20906", "stats": { "STRT": "4", "FC": "9", "FA": "10", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "1", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "20906", "stats": { "STRT": "31", "FC": "45", "FA": "36", "YC": "5", "RC": "0", "G": "7", "A": "8", "SHOT": "30", "SOG": "9", "OF": "2" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "20906", "stats": { "STRT": "2", "FC": "2", "FA": "5", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "1", "SHOT": "2", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "20906", "stats": { "STRT": "17", "FC": "38", "FA": "40", "YC": "4", "RC": "0", "G": "1", "A": "3", "SHOT": "14", "SOG": "1", "OF": "2" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Damian Las", "Brendan Hines-Ike", "Jon Bell", "Mikkel Desler", "Besard Sabovic", "Ervin Torres", "Zan Kolmanic", "Jon Gallagher", "Brandon V\u00e1zquez", "Christian Ram\u00edrez", "Facundo Torres" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761839", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "San Diego FC at Austin FC" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761839", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Owen Wolff - Quad (Out)" ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "4", "post_trade_starts": "0", "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 45, "documented_new_team_starts": "0", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": "4", "post_trade_starts": "0", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 1.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Progression, passing and chance creation", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.321833+00:00" }, { "player": "Zidane Ya\u00f1ez", "position": "F", "date": "2026-07-20", "team": "Nashville SC", "team_id": "18986", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "New York City FC", "counterparty_id": "17606", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "F - Zidane Ya\u00f1ez (7/20/26 - trade from New York City FC)", "roster_identity": { "id": "378653", "name": "Zidane Ya\u00f1ez", "roster_team": "Nashville SC", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/18986/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/378653/stats?team=18986&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-378653-18986.json", "team_split_statistics": [], "reference_lineup": [ "Joe Willis", "Maxwell Woledzi", "Jeisson Palacios", "Reed Baker-Whiting", "Andy N\u00e1jar", "Hany Mukhtar", "Matthew Corcoran", "Edvard Tagseth", "Sam Surridge", "Elias Saad", "Cristian Espinoza" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761838", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "Toronto FC at Nashville SC" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761838", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": null, "post_trade_starts": null, "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 82, "documented_new_team_starts": null, "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": null, "post_trade_starts": null, "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": null, "post_goals_plus_assists": null, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Finishing, shot creation and pressing starts", "direction": "New role can displace reference XI opportunities", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.341252+00:00" } ], "references": { "away": { "teamId": "18986", "team": "Nashville SC", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/18986/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761838", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.034491+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.563468+00:00", "event": { "id": "761838", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "Toronto FC at Nashville SC" }, "referenceXI": [ "Joe Willis", "Maxwell Woledzi", "Jeisson Palacios", "Reed Baker-Whiting", "Andy N\u00e1jar", "Hany Mukhtar", "Matthew Corcoran", "Edvard Tagseth", "Sam Surridge", "Elias Saad", "Cristian Espinoza" ], "formation": "4-2-3-1", "roster": [ { "id": 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"subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "304120", "name": "Reed Baker-Whiting", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 2.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "146355", "name": "Andy N\u00e1jar", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 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"shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "290109", "name": "Edvard Tagseth", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "227627", "name": "Sam Surridge", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 3.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 2.0, "shotsOnTarget": 3.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 5.0 } }, { "id": "323950", "name": "Elias Saad", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Attacking Midfielder Left", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "73200", "name": "Cristian Espinoza", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Attacking Midfielder Right", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 3.0 } }, { "id": "233041", "name": "Alex Muyl", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "266454", "name": "Josh Bauer", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "255501", "name": "Jack Maher", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "201136", "name": "Bryan Acosta", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "325936", "name": "Shakur Mohammed", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": 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false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "391430", "name": "Owen Presthus", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." }, "home": { "teamId": "20906", "team": "Austin FC", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/20906/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761839", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:24.115840+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.062161+00:00", "event": { "id": "761839", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "San Diego FC at Austin FC" }, "referenceXI": [ "Damian Las", "Brendan Hines-Ike", "Jon Bell", "Mikkel Desler", "Besard Sabovic", "Ervin Torres", "Zan Kolmanic", "Jon Gallagher", "Brandon V\u00e1zquez", "Christian Ram\u00edrez", "Facundo Torres" ], "formation": "3-4-3", "roster": [ { "id": "297379", "name": "Damian Las", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "saves": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "238438", "name": "Brendan Hines-Ike", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "257193", "name": "Jon Bell", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "213250", "name": "Mikkel Desler", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 1.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "225834", "name": "Besard Sabovic", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "381219", "name": "Ervin Torres", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "259805", "name": "Zan Kolmanic", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "231047", "name": "Jon Gallagher", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "228620", "name": "Brandon V\u00e1zquez", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 2.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 3.0 } }, { "id": "235061", "name": "Christian Ram\u00edrez", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 3.0, "totalGoals": 2.0, "totalShots": 3.0 } }, { "id": "67518", "name": "Facundo Torres", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "3143549", "name": "Erik Lauta", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "saves": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "3143548", "name": "Stefan Dobrijevic", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "374611", "name": "Jorge Alastuey", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "150185", "name": "Ilie S\u00e1nchez", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "365828", "name": "Micah Burton", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "196666", "name": "Oleksandr Svatok", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "398878", "name": "Chris Applewhite", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "324274", "name": "Patrick Cayelli", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "322966", "name": "Mateja Djordjevic", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } } ], "scope": "Last completed competitive match; reference only, not announced Oct10 lineup. Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "Nashville SC at Austin FC", "market": { "id": "761856", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761856", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.207456+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.383932+00:00", "home_line": 0.5, "away_line": -0.5, "home_line_price": -120.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 2.5, "under_line": 2.5, "over_price": -140.0, "under_price": 110.0, "home_ml": 260.0, "away_ml": -110.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "draw_ml": 260.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "moneyline_scope": "Regulation three-way including draw" } ], "average_home_line": 0.5, "average_total": 2.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "761857", "sport": "MLS", "identity": { "id": "761857", "date": "2026-10-11T01:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 13846, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLS", "venue": { "id": "2731", "fullName": "Dick's Sporting Goods Park", "indoor": null, "address": { "city": "Commerce City, Colorado", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "191", "away_name": "San Jose Earthquakes", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "184", "home_name": "Colorado Rapids", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 7 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-11T01:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Dick's Sporting Goods Park" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 85. South southwest wind 5 to 11 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 17 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south after midnight. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/colvssj-10-10-2026/clubs", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/" ], "other_review": { "trades": [ { "player": "Kosi Thompson", "position": "D", "date": "2026-03-26", "team": "Colorado Rapids", "team_id": "184", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "Toronto FC", "counterparty_id": "7318", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "D - Kosi Thompson (3/26/26 - trade from Toronto FC)", "roster_identity": { "id": "319389", "name": "Kosi Thompson", "roster_team": "Colorado Rapids", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/184/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/319389/stats?team=184&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-319389-184.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "184", "stats": { "STRT": "9", "FC": "15", "FA": "13", "YC": "5", "RC": "0", "G": "2", "A": "0", "SHOT": "6", "SOG": "2", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Nico Hansen", "Rob Holding", "Loic Williams", "Reggie Cannon", "Joshua Atencio", "Miguel Navarro", "Jackson Travis", "Keegan Rosenberry", "Donavan Phillip", "Paxten Aaronson", "Morgan Whittaker" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761841", "date": "2026-09-27T02:30Z", "name": "Colorado Rapids at LA Galaxy" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761841", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "319389", "name": "Kosi Thompson", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 0.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "2", "post_trade_starts": "9", "post_last_match_role": "substitute/bench", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 198, "documented_new_team_starts": "9", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": "2", "post_trade_starts": "9", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 2.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. 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Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.321833+00:00" }, { "player": "Georgi Minoungou", "position": "F", "date": "2026-03-27", "team": "Colorado Rapids", "team_id": "184", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "Seattle Sounders FC", "counterparty_id": "9726", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "F - Georgi Minoungou (3/27/26 - trade from Seattle Sounders FC)", "roster_identity": { "id": "362501", "name": "Georgi Minoungou", "roster_team": "Colorado Rapids", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/184/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/362501/stats?team=184&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-362501-184.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "184", "stats": { "STRT": "13", "FC": "15", "FA": "30", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "2", "SHOT": "24", "SOG": "7", "OF": "3" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Nico Hansen", "Rob Holding", "Loic Williams", "Reggie Cannon", "Joshua Atencio", "Miguel Navarro", "Jackson Travis", "Keegan Rosenberry", "Donavan Phillip", "Paxten Aaronson", "Morgan Whittaker" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761841", "date": "2026-09-27T02:30Z", "name": "Colorado Rapids at LA Galaxy" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761841", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "2", "post_trade_starts": "13", "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 197, "documented_new_team_starts": "13", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": "2", "post_trade_starts": "13", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. 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Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.321833+00:00" }, { "player": "Ian Murphy", "position": "D", "date": "2026-06-27", "team": "Colorado Rapids", "team_id": "184", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "San Diego FC", "counterparty_id": "22529", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "D - Ian Murphy (6/27/26 - trade to San Diego FC)", "roster_identity": { "id": "296216", "name": "Ian Murphy", "roster_team": "San Diego FC", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/22529/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/296216/stats?team=184&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-296216-184.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "184", "stats": { "STRT": "0", "FC": "0", "FA": "0", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "184", "stats": { "STRT": "12", "FC": "10", "FA": "1", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "1", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Nico Hansen", "Rob Holding", "Loic Williams", "Reggie Cannon", "Joshua Atencio", "Miguel Navarro", "Jackson Travis", "Keegan Rosenberry", "Donavan Phillip", "Paxten Aaronson", "Morgan Whittaker" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761841", "date": "2026-09-27T02:30Z", "name": "Colorado Rapids at LA Galaxy" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761841", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "296216", "name": "Ian Murphy", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "0", "post_trade_starts": "8", "post_last_match_role": "starter", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 105, "documented_new_team_starts": "8", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": "0", "post_trade_starts": "8", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. 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Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Build-up width and set-piece contribution", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Space/duel coverage and line coordination", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. 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New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 4.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Finishing, shot creation and pressing starts", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. 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New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 14.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 5.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Finishing, shot creation and pressing starts", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.329298+00:00" }, { "player": "Eduard L\u00f6wen", "position": "M", "date": "2026-08-26", "team": "San Jose Earthquakes", "team_id": "191", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "St. Louis CITY SC", "counterparty_id": "21812", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "M - Eduard L\u00f6wen (8/26/26 - trade from St. Louis CITY SC)", "roster_identity": { "id": "189505", "name": "Eduard L\u00f6wen", "roster_team": "San Jose Earthquakes", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/191/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/189505/stats?team=191&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-189505-191.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "191", "stats": { "STRT": "5", "FC": "4", "FA": "9", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "1", "A": "2", "SHOT": "16", "SOG": "5", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Earl Edwards", "Dave Romney", "Reid Roberts", "Daniel Munie", "V\u00edtor Costa", "Paul Marie", "Ian Harkes", "Beau Leroux", "Eduard L\u00f6wen", "Timo Werner", "Preston Judd" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761843", "date": "2026-09-27T02:30Z", "name": "Portland Timbers at San Jose Earthquakes" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761843", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "189505", "name": "Eduard L\u00f6wen", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 2.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 4.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "8", "post_trade_starts": "5", "post_last_match_role": "starter", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 45, "documented_new_team_starts": "5", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": "8", "post_trade_starts": "5", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 5.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 3.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Progression, passing and chance creation", "direction": "New role can displace reference XI opportunities", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.354347+00:00" }, { "player": "Daniel", "position": "GK", "date": "2026-07-09", "team": "San Jose Earthquakes", "team_id": "191", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "FC Dallas", "counterparty_id": "185", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "GK - Daniel (7/9/26 - trade to FC Dallas)", "roster_identity": { "id": "243832", "name": "Daniel", "roster_team": "FC Dallas", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/185/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/243832/stats?team=191&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-243832-191.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "191", "stats": { "STRT": "14", "FC": "0", "FA": "6", "YC": "4", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "191", "stats": { "STRT": "29", "FC": "0", "FA": "15", "YC": "3", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "191", "stats": { "STRT": "12", "FC": "0", "FA": "2", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "0", "SHOT": "0", "SOG": "0", "OF": "1" } }, { "category": "goalKeeping", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "191", "stats": { "CS": "5", "SV": "44", "GA": "15" } }, { "category": "goalKeeping", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "191", "stats": { "CS": "3", "SV": "99", "GA": "50" } }, { "category": "goalKeeping", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "191", "stats": { "CS": "1", "SV": "50", "GA": "24" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Earl Edwards", "Dave Romney", "Reid Roberts", "Daniel Munie", "V\u00edtor Costa", "Paul Marie", "Ian Harkes", "Beau Leroux", "Eduard L\u00f6wen", "Timo Werner", "Preston Judd" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761843", "date": "2026-09-27T02:30Z", "name": "Portland Timbers at San Jose Earthquakes" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761843", "current_last_match_participation": null, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "14", "post_trade_starts": "5", "post_last_match_role": "not in last captured match roster", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 93, "documented_new_team_starts": "5", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": "14", "post_trade_starts": "5", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. 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Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Build-up distribution and set-piece contribution", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Goal prevention and distribution under pressure", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.354347+00:00" } ], "references": { "away": { "teamId": "191", "team": "San Jose Earthquakes", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/191/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761843", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.553587+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:26.039381+00:00", "event": { "id": "761843", "date": "2026-09-27T02:30Z", "name": "Portland Timbers at San Jose Earthquakes" }, "referenceXI": [ "Earl Edwards", "Dave Romney", "Reid Roberts", "Daniel Munie", "V\u00edtor Costa", "Paul Marie", "Ian Harkes", "Beau Leroux", "Eduard L\u00f6wen", "Timo Werner", "Preston Judd" ], "formation": "5-3-2", "roster": [ { "id": "216999", "name": "Earl Edwards", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "saves": 5.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "222188", "name": "Dave Romney", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "398860", "name": "Reid Roberts", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "281494", "name": "Daniel Munie", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "223355", "name": "V\u00edtor Costa", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Back", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, 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"totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "382638", "name": "Beau Leroux", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "189505", "name": "Eduard L\u00f6wen", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 2.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 2.0, "totalGoals": 1.0, "totalShots": 4.0 } }, { "id": "191088", "name": "Timo Werner", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, { "id": "295339", "name": "Preston Judd", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 1.0, "goalsConceded": 0.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 3.0, "totalGoals": 2.0, "totalShots": 4.0 } }, { "id": "380800", "name": "Jamar Ricketts", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "302893", "name": "Benjamin Kikanovic", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 1.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0 } }, { "id": "246337", "name": "Jack Skahan", "starter": false, "active": true, "position": "Substitute", "subbedIn": true, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 1.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.2317, "pa": 3.51219, "official_team_id": 24 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.53658, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 20 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.2317, "pa": 3.51219, "official_team_id": 24 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.53658, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 20 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Calgary Flames: Jonathan Huberdeau Injured Reserve | Anaheim Ducks: Drew Helleson Injured Reserve, Troy Terry Injured Reserve, Ian Moore Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892480", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.995793+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.205902+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892480", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.995793+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.205902+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Anaheim Ducks; Primary: Anaheim Ducks; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Anaheim Ducks; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Anaheim Ducks. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -0.379268 to -0.15244. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.1546319456101628 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892480", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.1546319456101628e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.3740853658536585, 2.994817073170732 ], "Primary": [ 3.269948448440952, 3.0091924241938193 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 10:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 0 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020082, "startUTC": "2026-10-11T02:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/CGY/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Anaheim Ducks", "previousEventId": "401892468", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Winnipeg Jets", "previousVenue": { "id": "1397", "fullName": "Canada Life Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Winnipeg", "state": "MB", "country": "Canada" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 1, "offDays": 0, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Scotiabank Saddledome; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Calgary Flames", "previousEventId": "401892463", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T01:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Colorado Avalanche", "previousVenue": { "id": "1843", "fullName": "Scotiabank Saddledome", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Calgary", "state": "AB", "country": "Canada" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Scotiabank Saddledome; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Scotiabank Saddledome; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/CGY/20262027", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892480" ], "tu": { "id": "401892480", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892480", "date": "2026-10-11T02:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1843", "fullName": "Scotiabank Saddledome", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Calgary", "state": "AB", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "25", "away_name": "Anaheim Ducks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "3", "home_name": "Calgary Flames", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.2317, "pa": 3.51219, "official_team_id": 24 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.53658, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 20 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.176825, 5.176825 ], "home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames", "market": { "id": "401892480", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892480", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.223092+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.448440+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -238.0, "away_line_price": 195.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": -102.0, "under_price": -118.0, "home_ml": 105.0, "away_ml": -125.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.3792682926829265, "combined": 6.3689024390243905, "spread_buffer": 1.1207317073170735, "total_difference": -0.13109756097560954 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.3792682926829265, "combined": 6.3689024390243905, "spread_buffer": 1.1207317073170735, "total_difference": -0.13109756097560954 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.2607560242471325, "combined": 6.2791408726347715, "spread_buffer": 1.2392439757528675, "total_difference": -0.2208591273652285 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.2607560242471325, "combined": 6.2791408726347715, "spread_buffer": 1.2392439757528675, "total_difference": -0.2208591273652285 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.15244000000000035, "combined": 6.20121, "spread_buffer": 1.3475599999999996, "total_difference": -0.29879000000000033 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.15244000000000035, "combined": 6.20121, "spread_buffer": 1.3475599999999996, "total_difference": -0.29879000000000033 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.15244000000000035, "combined": 6.20121, "spread_buffer": 1.3475599999999996, "total_difference": -0.29879000000000033 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.15244000000000035, "combined": 6.20121, "spread_buffer": 1.3475599999999996, "total_difference": -0.29879000000000033 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892481", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892481", "date": "2026-10-11T02:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "5060", "fullName": "T-Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "8", "away_name": "Los Angeles Kings", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "37", "home_name": "Vegas Golden Knights", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.768165429480382, 3.448419936373277 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.768165429480382, 3.448419936373277 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.768165429480382, 3.448419936373277 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.13043478260869565, "prior_rates": [ 2.7439024390243905, 3.0121951219512195 ], "current_rates": [ 3.0, 5.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.231707317073171, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 4.2, 2.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.6614273050964057, 3.3791489611893226 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.6614273050964057, 3.3791489611893226 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.6614273050964057, 3.3791489611893226 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.68292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 26 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.68292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 26 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Vegas Golden Knights: Victor Olofsson Out, Lukas Cormier Injured Reserve | Los Angeles Kings: Alex Turcotte Day-To-Day, Mats Zuccarello Out, Jakub Dvorak Injured Reserve, Jan Jenik Injured Reserve, Kevin Fiala Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892481", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.045798+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.221284+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892481", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.045798+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.221284+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 3 current regular; current weight 0.1304; home: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Vegas Golden Knights; Primary: Vegas Golden Knights; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Vegas Golden Knights; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Vegas Golden Knights. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 0.243905 to 0.717722. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.021405182655144 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892481", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.021405182655144e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 2.768165429480382, 3.448419936373277 ], "Primary": [ 2.6614273050964057, 3.3791489611893226 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 10:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 3 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020083, "startUTC": "2026-10-11T02:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/VGK/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Los Angeles Kings", "previousEventId": "401891806", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-07T02:20Z", "previousOpponent": "Florida Panthers", "previousVenue": { "id": "1841", "fullName": "crypto.com Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 4, "offDays": 3, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to T-Mobile Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Vegas Golden Knights", "previousEventId": "401892464", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T02:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "previousVenue": { "id": "5060", "fullName": "T-Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to T-Mobile Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at T-Mobile Arena; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/VGK/20262027", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892481" ], "tu": { "id": "401892481", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892481", "date": "2026-10-11T02:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "5060", "fullName": "T-Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "8", "away_name": "Los Angeles Kings", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "37", "home_name": "Vegas Golden Knights", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.68292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 26 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8170650000000004, 4.817065 ], "home": [ 1.0609700000000002, 5.06097 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights", "market": { "id": "401892481", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892481", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.271765+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.429517+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 164.0, "away_line_price": -198.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 114.0, "under_price": -135.0, "home_ml": -162.0, "away_ml": 136.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.6802545068928949, "combined": 6.216585365853659, "spread_buffer": -0.8197454931071051, "total_difference": -0.28341463414634127 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.6802545068928949, "combined": 6.216585365853659, "spread_buffer": -0.8197454931071051, "total_difference": -0.28341463414634127 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.7177216560929169, "combined": 6.040576266285728, "spread_buffer": -0.7822783439070831, "total_difference": -0.4594237337142717 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.7177216560929169, "combined": 6.040576266285728, "spread_buffer": -0.7822783439070831, "total_difference": -0.4594237337142717 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.24390499999999982, "combined": 5.878035000000001, "spread_buffer": -1.2560950000000002, "total_difference": -0.6219649999999994 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.24390499999999982, "combined": 5.878035000000001, "spread_buffer": -1.2560950000000002, "total_difference": -0.6219649999999994 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.24390499999999982, "combined": 5.878035000000001, "spread_buffer": -1.2560950000000002, "total_difference": -0.6219649999999994 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.24390499999999982, "combined": 5.878035000000001, "spread_buffer": -1.2560950000000002, "total_difference": -0.6219649999999994 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401856808", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401856808", "date": "2026-10-11T02:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3947", "fullName": "Mountain America Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Tempe", "state": "AZ", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "62", "away_name": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "9", "home_name": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "current_rates": [ 17.6, 24.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 24.666666666666668, 23.0 ], "current_rates": [ 33.25, 31.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 27.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 27.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18.5, 34.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.5, 34.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.5, "pa": 23.5, "margin": 5.0, "event_ids": [ "401754516", "401756849", "401757230", "401760370", "401760374", "401760378", "401760389", "401760394", "401760403", "401760408", "401760418", "401760424" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 24.8, "margin": -7.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401858201", "401864497", "401864578", "401864510", "401864513" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401756850", "401752688", "401756889", "401756896", "401756902", "401756922", "401756923", "401756929", "401756939", "401756948", "401756956", "401756961" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33.25, "pa": 31.75, "margin": 1.5, "event_ids": [ "401856774", "401856683", "401856812", "401856817" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.75, 24.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.675, 29.025 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5366666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.5, "pa": 23.5, "margin": 5.0, "event_ids": [ "401754516", "401756849", "401757230", "401760370", "401760374", "401760378", "401760389", "401760394", "401760403", "401760408", "401760418", "401760424" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 24.8, "margin": -7.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401858201", "401864497", "401864578", "401864510", "401864513" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401756850", "401752688", "401756889", "401756896", "401756902", "401756922", "401756923", "401756929", "401756939", "401756948", "401756956", "401756961" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33.25, "pa": 31.75, "margin": 1.5, "event_ids": [ "401856774", "401856683", "401856812", "401856817" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.75, 24.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.675, 29.025 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5366666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401856808", "matchup": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun Devils", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Arizona State Sun Devils: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.213333333333335, 28.590833333333332 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.75, 24.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.675, 29.025 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5366666666666667, 2.0366666666666666 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 57, "def_drives": 56, "off_points_proxy": 92, "def_points_proxy": 110, "off_plays": 462, "off_yards": 2516, "def_plays": 428, "def_yards": 2356, "early_plays": 308, "early_yards": 1622, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858201", "401864497", "401864510", "401864513", "401864578" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.6140350877192982, "def_ppd": 1.9642857142857142, "off_ypp": 5.445887445887446, "def_ypp": 5.5046728971962615, "early_down_ypp": 5.266233766233766 }, "home": { "off_drives": 52, "def_drives": 54, "off_points_proxy": 126, "def_points_proxy": 113, "off_plays": 332, "off_yards": 2248, "def_plays": 350, "def_yards": 2067, "early_plays": 237, "early_yards": 1521, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856683", "401856774", "401856812", "401856817" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.423076923076923, "def_ppd": 2.0925925925925926, "off_ypp": 6.771084337349397, "def_ypp": 5.905714285714286, "early_down_ypp": 6.417721518987341 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight Partly cloudy, with a low around 79. East wind around 5 mph. Saturday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 94. East wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Saturday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4am. Low around 74. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tempe&state=AZ&site=PSR&textField1=33.4147&textField2=-111.909&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856808", "matchup": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun Devils", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "sources": [ "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/4819259/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/4869582/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/4917119/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/5079651/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/5085972/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", 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"http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/4870850/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/4900771/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/4917619/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5031157/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5079348/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5110535/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5141378/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5141480/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5164354/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tempe&state=AZ&site=PSR&textField1=33.4147&textField2=-111.909&e=1", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/62/roster?season=2026", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/9/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview" ], "tu": { "id": "401856808", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401856808", "date": "2026-10-11T02:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3947", "fullName": "Mountain America Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Tempe", "state": "AZ", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "62", "away_name": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "9", "home_name": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.5, "pa": 23.5, "margin": 5.0, "event_ids": [ "401754516", "401756849", "401757230", "401760370", "401760374", "401760378", "401760389", "401760394", "401760403", "401760408", "401760418", "401760424" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 24.8, "margin": -7.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401858201", "401864497", "401864578", "401864510", "401864513" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401756850", "401752688", "401756889", "401756896", "401756902", "401756922", "401756923", "401756929", "401756939", "401756948", "401756956", "401756961" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33.25, "pa": 31.75, "margin": 1.5, "event_ids": [ "401856774", "401856683", "401856812", "401856817" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.75, 24.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.675, 29.025 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5366666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "ranges": { "away": [ 6.675833333333333, 42.67583333333333 ], "home": [ 10.590833333333332, 46.590833333333336 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401856808", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856808", "teamId": "62", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "side": "away", "opponent": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5101124", "name": "Micah Alejado", "position": "QB", "workload": "132/216, 1361 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/5101124/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5211117", "name": "Bjorn Jurgensen", "position": "QB", "workload": "1/4, 7 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/5211117/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5079651", "name": "DeVon Rice", "position": "RB", "workload": "59 CAR, 276 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/5079651/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5218869", "name": "Sitani Mikaele", "position": "RB", "workload": "21 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/5218869/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4869582", "name": "Cam Barfield", "position": "RB", "workload": "11 CAR, 43 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/4869582/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5085972", "name": "Kainoa Carvalho", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 249 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/5085972/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5218881", "name": "Tama Uiliata", "position": "WR", "workload": "27 REC, 245 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/5218881/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4917119", "name": "Devin Alves", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 167 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/4917119/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4819259", "name": "Devon Tauaefa", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/4819259/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5173623", "name": "Frank Abreu", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 31 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/5173623/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/62/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856808", "teamId": "9", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "side": "home", "opponent": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5141378", "name": "Cutter Boley", "position": "QB", "workload": "78/127, 1040 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5141378/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4597499", "name": "Mikey Keene", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/7, 32 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/4597499/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5110535", "name": "Kyson Brown", "position": "RB", "workload": "50 CAR, 261 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5110535/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4900771", "name": "Marquis Gillis", "position": "RB", "workload": "17 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/4900771/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079348", "name": "Jason Brown Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "9 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5079348/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5031157", "name": "Reed Harris", "position": "WR", "workload": "26 REC, 499 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5031157/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870850", "name": "Omarion Miller", "position": "WR", "workload": "25 REC, 234 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/4870850/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5164354", "name": "Cory Butler Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "4 REC, 37 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5164354/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5141480", "name": "AJ Ia", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 25 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5141480/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4917619", "name": "Khamari Anderson", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 21 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/4917619/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Arizona State Sun Devils: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/9/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.213333333333335, 28.590833333333332 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.75, 24.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.675, 29.025 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5366666666666667, 2.0366666666666666 ] }, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun Devils", "market": { "id": "401856808", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856808", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.296117+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.481002+00:00", "home_line": -21.0, "away_line": 21.0, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 50.5, "under_line": 50.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -1600.0, "away_ml": 900.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -21.0, "average_total": 50.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 2.5727272727272705, "combined": 51.11818181818182, "spread_buffer": -18.42727272727273, "total_difference": 0.6181818181818173 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 2.5727272727272705, "combined": 51.11818181818182, "spread_buffer": -18.42727272727273, "total_difference": 0.6181818181818173 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 15.752810393983822, "combined": 52.37127982442813, "spread_buffer": -5.247189606016178, "total_difference": 1.8712798244281288 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 15.752810393983822, "combined": 52.37127982442813, "spread_buffer": -5.247189606016178, "total_difference": 1.8712798244281288 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 3.914999999999999, "combined": 53.266666666666666, "spread_buffer": -17.085, "total_difference": 2.7666666666666657 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 3.914999999999999, "combined": 53.266666666666666, "spread_buffer": -17.085, "total_difference": 2.7666666666666657 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401856808", "matchup": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun Devils", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "line": 21.0, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856808", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.296117+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.481002+00:00", "home_line": -21.0, "away_line": 21.0, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 50.5, "under_line": 50.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -1600.0, "away_ml": 900.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 17.085, "production_adjusted": 17.085, "minimum_all_scenarios": 17.085, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "directional_buffer": 18.42727272727273, "scenario_minimum": 18.42727272727273 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "directional_buffer": 5.247189606016178, "scenario_minimum": 5.247189606016178 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 17.085, "scenario_minimum": 17.085 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 17.085, "scenario_minimum": 17.085 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 17.085, "stressed_buffer": 14.085 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 17.085, "stressed_buffer": 14.085 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.213333333333335, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 17.622500000000002, "stressed_buffer": 14.622500000000002 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.213333333333335, 28.590833333333332 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.75, 24.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.675, 29.025 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5366666666666667, 2.0366666666666666 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tempe&state=AZ&site=PSR&textField1=33.4147&textField2=-111.909&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tempe&state=AZ&site=PSR&textField1=33.4147&textField2=-111.909&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:30:00-07:00", "window": "Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4am. Low around 74. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 20, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401856808", "matchup": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun Devils", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 50.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856808", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.296117+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.481002+00:00", "home_line": -21.0, "away_line": 21.0, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 50.5, "under_line": 50.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -1600.0, "away_ml": 900.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 2.7666666666666657, "production_adjusted": 2.7666666666666657, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.7666666666666657, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6181818181818173, "scenario_minimum": 0.6181818181818173 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "directional_buffer": 1.8712798244281288, "scenario_minimum": 1.8712798244281288 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 2.7666666666666657, "scenario_minimum": 2.7666666666666657 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 2.7666666666666657, "scenario_minimum": 2.7666666666666657 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 2.7666666666666657, "stressed_buffer": -0.23333333333333428 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 2.7666666666666657, "stressed_buffer": -0.23333333333333428 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.213333333333335, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 3.304166666666667, "stressed_buffer": 0.30416666666666714 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.213333333333335, 28.590833333333332 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.75, 24.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.675, 29.025 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5366666666666667, 2.0366666666666666 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tempe&state=AZ&site=PSR&textField1=33.4147&textField2=-111.909&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tempe&state=AZ&site=PSR&textField1=33.4147&textField2=-111.909&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:30:00-07:00", "window": "Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4am. Low around 74. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 20, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 3.914999999999999, "combined": 53.266666666666666, "spread_buffer": -17.085, "total_difference": 2.7666666666666657 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 3.914999999999999, "combined": 53.266666666666666, "spread_buffer": -17.085, "total_difference": 2.7666666666666657 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401856808", "matchup": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun Devils", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "line": 21.0, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856808", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.296117+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.481002+00:00", "home_line": -21.0, "away_line": 21.0, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 50.5, "under_line": 50.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -1600.0, "away_ml": 900.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 17.085, "production_adjusted": 17.085, "minimum_all_scenarios": 17.085, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "directional_buffer": 18.42727272727273, "scenario_minimum": 18.42727272727273 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "directional_buffer": 5.247189606016178, "scenario_minimum": 5.247189606016178 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 17.085, "scenario_minimum": 17.085 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 17.085, "scenario_minimum": 17.085 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 17.085, "stressed_buffer": 14.085 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 17.085, "stressed_buffer": 14.085 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.213333333333335, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 17.622500000000002, "stressed_buffer": 14.622500000000002 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.213333333333335, 28.590833333333332 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.75, 24.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.675, 29.025 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5366666666666667, 2.0366666666666666 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tempe&state=AZ&site=PSR&textField1=33.4147&textField2=-111.909&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tempe&state=AZ&site=PSR&textField1=33.4147&textField2=-111.909&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:30:00-07:00", "window": "Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4am. Low around 74. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 20, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401856808", "matchup": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun Devils", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 50.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856808", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.296117+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.481002+00:00", "home_line": -21.0, "away_line": 21.0, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 50.5, "under_line": 50.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -1600.0, "away_ml": 900.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 2.7666666666666657, "production_adjusted": 2.7666666666666657, "minimum_all_scenarios": 2.7666666666666657, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6181818181818173, "scenario_minimum": 0.6181818181818173 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "directional_buffer": 1.8712798244281288, "scenario_minimum": 1.8712798244281288 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 2.7666666666666657, "scenario_minimum": 2.7666666666666657 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 2.7666666666666657, "scenario_minimum": 2.7666666666666657 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 2.7666666666666657, "stressed_buffer": -0.23333333333333428 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 2.7666666666666657, "stressed_buffer": -0.23333333333333428 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.213333333333335, 28.590833333333332 ], "directional_buffer": 3.304166666666667, "stressed_buffer": 0.30416666666666714 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.213333333333335, 28.590833333333332 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.75, 24.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.675, 29.025 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5366666666666667, 2.0366666666666666 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tempe&state=AZ&site=PSR&textField1=33.4147&textField2=-111.909&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tempe&state=AZ&site=PSR&textField1=33.4147&textField2=-111.909&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:30:00-07:00", "window": "Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4am. Low around 74. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 20, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401860901", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401860901", "date": "2026-10-11T02:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3660", "fullName": "Valley Children's Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Fresno", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "68", "away_name": "Boise State Broncos", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "278", "home_name": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.384615384615383, 23.0 ], "current_rates": [ 34.4, 20.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 26.416666666666668, 20.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 27.8, 16.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25.0, 25.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.0, 25.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.384615384615383, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 8.384615384615383, "event_ids": [ "401762522", "401760363", "401760372", "401760379", "401757165", "401760387", "401760393", "401760397", "401760402", "401760410", "401760416", "401760422", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.4, "pa": 20.6, "margin": 13.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858433", "401860881", "401860885", "401860897", "401860898" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 20.083333333333332, "margin": 6.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401756847", "401760361", "401752937", "401760369", "401760374", "401760383", "401760388", "401760399", "401760402", "401760412", "401760417", "401760423" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 16.4, "margin": 11.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858436", "401860883", "401860888", "401860891", "401860921" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.733974358974358, 24.708333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.4, 24.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.4451282051282043, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.384615384615383, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 8.384615384615383, "event_ids": [ "401762522", "401760363", "401760372", "401760379", "401757165", "401760387", "401760393", "401760397", "401760402", "401760410", "401760416", "401760422", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.4, "pa": 20.6, "margin": 13.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858433", "401860881", "401860885", "401860897", "401860898" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 20.083333333333332, "margin": 6.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401756847", "401760361", "401752937", "401760369", "401760374", "401760383", "401760388", "401760399", "401760402", "401760412", "401760417", "401760423" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 16.4, "margin": 11.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858436", "401860883", "401860888", "401860891", "401860921" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.733974358974358, 24.708333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.4, 24.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.4451282051282043, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": { "eventId": "401860901", "matchup": "Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Boise State Broncos: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Fresno State Bulldogs: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.763205128205133 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.733974358974358, 24.708333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.4, 24.200000000000003 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.4451282051282043, 1.0548717948717958 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 55, "def_drives": 56, "off_points_proxy": 158, "def_points_proxy": 102, "off_plays": 433, "off_yards": 2505, "def_plays": 375, "def_yards": 2366, "early_plays": 311, "early_yards": 1689, "explosive_plays": 31, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858433", "401860881", "401860885", "401860897", "401860898" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.8727272727272726, "def_ppd": 1.8214285714285714, "off_ypp": 5.785219399538106, "def_ypp": 6.309333333333333, "early_down_ypp": 5.430868167202572 }, "home": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 60, "off_points_proxy": 142, "def_points_proxy": 78, "off_plays": 404, "off_yards": 2384, "def_plays": 423, "def_yards": 2338, "early_plays": 286, "early_yards": 1578, "explosive_plays": 34, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858436", "401860883", "401860888", "401860891", "401860921" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.2903225806451615, "def_ppd": 1.3, "off_ypp": 5.900990099009901, "def_ypp": 5.527186761229315, "early_down_ypp": 5.5174825174825175 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight Clear, with a low around 65. East wind around 5 mph. Saturday Increasing clouds, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fresno&state=CA&site=HNX&textField1=36.7478&textField2=-119.771&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401860901", "matchup": "Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. 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"tu": { "id": "401860901", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401860901", "date": "2026-10-11T02:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3660", "fullName": "Valley Children's Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Fresno", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "68", "away_name": "Boise State Broncos", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "278", "home_name": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.384615384615383, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 8.384615384615383, "event_ids": [ "401762522", "401760363", "401760372", "401760379", "401757165", "401760387", "401760393", "401760397", "401760402", "401760410", "401760416", "401760422", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.4, "pa": 20.6, "margin": 13.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858433", "401860881", 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44.012115384615385 ], "home": [ 7.509038461538466, 43.509038461538466 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": { "eventId": "401860901", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401860901", "teamId": "68", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "side": "away", "opponent": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4870513", "name": "Maddux Madsen", "position": "QB", "workload": "87/132, 1058 YDS, 11 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/4870513/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5146712", "name": "Dylan Riley", "position": "RB", "workload": "108 CAR, 685 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/5146712/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5147379", "name": "Sire Gaines", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 234 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/5147379/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5124975", "name": "Juelz Goff", "position": "RB", "workload": "13 CAR, 41 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/5124975/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5290573", "name": "Rasean Jones", "position": "WR", "workload": "23 REC, 359 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/5290573/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5120669", "name": "Akeem Wright", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 166 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/5120669/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4714341", "name": "Ben Ford", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 92 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/4714341/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5080888", "name": "Matt Wagner", "position": "TE", "workload": "17 REC, 196 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/5080888/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5382290", "name": "Keawe Browne", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 29 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/5382290/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Boise State Broncos: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/68/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401860901", "teamId": "278", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "side": "home", "opponent": "Boise State Broncos", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5010409", "name": "Jayden Mandal", "position": "QB", "workload": "91/137, 1034 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/5010409/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5146667", "name": "Khristian Martin", "position": "QB", "workload": "2/2, 12 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/5146667/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4685445", "name": "Rayshon Luke", "position": "RB", "workload": "42 CAR, 286 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/4685445/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5175334", "name": "Bryson Donelson", "position": "RB", "workload": "48 CAR, 206 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/5175334/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5262650", "name": "Julius Gillick", "position": "RB", "workload": "25 CAR, 102 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/5262650/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5092483", "name": "Josiah Freeman", "position": "WR", "workload": "25 REC, 322 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/5092483/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5121384", "name": "Ezekiel Avit", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 234 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/5121384/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870923", "name": "Jahlil McClain", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 135 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/4870923/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4869294", "name": "Jake Appleget", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 51 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/4869294/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5291743", "name": "Dallas Gaius-Anyaegbu", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 39 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/5291743/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Fresno State Bulldogs: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/278/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } }, "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.763205128205133 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.5030769230769145, "combined": 51.52115384615385, "spread_buffer": 6.4969230769230855, "total_difference": 3.021153846153851 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.5030769230769145, "combined": 51.52115384615385, "spread_buffer": 6.4969230769230855, "total_difference": 3.021153846153851 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401860901", "matchup": "Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "line": 7.0, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860901", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.343670+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.511438+00:00", "home_line": 7.0, "away_line": -7.0, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 210.0, "away_ml": -258.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 6.4969230769230855, "production_adjusted": 6.4969230769230855, "minimum_all_scenarios": 6.4969230769230855, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "directional_buffer": 7.395104895104897, "scenario_minimum": 7.395104895104897 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "directional_buffer": 12.157396556350491, "scenario_minimum": 12.157396556350491 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "directional_buffer": 6.4969230769230855, "scenario_minimum": 6.4969230769230855 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "directional_buffer": 6.4969230769230855, "scenario_minimum": 6.4969230769230855 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "directional_buffer": 6.4969230769230855, "stressed_buffer": 3.4969230769230855 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "directional_buffer": 6.4969230769230855, "stressed_buffer": 3.4969230769230855 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.76320512820513 ], "directional_buffer": 6.751089743589748, "stressed_buffer": 3.7510897435897483 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.763205128205133 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.733974358974358, 24.708333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.4, 24.200000000000003 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.4451282051282043, 1.0548717948717958 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fresno&state=CA&site=HNX&textField1=36.7478&textField2=-119.771&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:30:00-07:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 15, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401860901", "matchup": "Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 48.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860901", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.343670+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.511438+00:00", "home_line": 7.0, "away_line": -7.0, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 210.0, "away_ml": -258.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 3.021153846153851, "production_adjusted": 3.021153846153851, "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.021153846153851, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "directional_buffer": 1.55944055944056, "scenario_minimum": 1.55944055944056 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "directional_buffer": -0.33493660178983475, "scenario_minimum": -0.33493660178983475 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "directional_buffer": 3.021153846153851, "scenario_minimum": 3.021153846153851 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "directional_buffer": 3.021153846153851, "scenario_minimum": 3.021153846153851 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "directional_buffer": 3.021153846153851, "stressed_buffer": 0.021153846153850964 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "directional_buffer": 3.021153846153851, "stressed_buffer": 0.021153846153850964 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.76320512820513 ], "directional_buffer": 3.275320512820514, "stressed_buffer": 0.27532051282051384 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.763205128205133 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.733974358974358, 24.708333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.4, 24.200000000000003 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.4451282051282043, 1.0548717948717958 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fresno&state=CA&site=HNX&textField1=36.7478&textField2=-119.771&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:30:00-07:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. 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Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.733974358974358, 24.708333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.4, 24.200000000000003 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.4451282051282043, 1.0548717948717958 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fresno&state=CA&site=HNX&textField1=36.7478&textField2=-119.771&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:30:00-07:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 15, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, "total": { "event_id": "401860901", "matchup": "Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 48.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860901", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.343670+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.511438+00:00", "home_line": 7.0, "away_line": -7.0, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 210.0, "away_ml": -258.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 3.021153846153851, "production_adjusted": 3.021153846153851, "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.021153846153851, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "directional_buffer": 1.55944055944056, "scenario_minimum": 1.55944055944056 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "directional_buffer": -0.33493660178983475, "scenario_minimum": -0.33493660178983475 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "directional_buffer": 3.021153846153851, "scenario_minimum": 3.021153846153851 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "directional_buffer": 3.021153846153851, "scenario_minimum": 3.021153846153851 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "directional_buffer": 3.021153846153851, "stressed_buffer": 0.021153846153850964 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "directional_buffer": 3.021153846153851, "stressed_buffer": 0.021153846153850964 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.76320512820513 ], "directional_buffer": 3.275320512820514, "stressed_buffer": 0.27532051282051384 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.763205128205133 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.733974358974358, 24.708333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.4, 24.200000000000003 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.4451282051282043, 1.0548717948717958 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fresno&state=CA&site=HNX&textField1=36.7478&textField2=-119.771&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:30:00-07:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 15, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401898720", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401898720", "date": "2026-10-11T02:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1949", "fullName": "Mortgage Matchup Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Phoenix", "state": "AZ" } }, "away": "24", "away_name": "San Antonio Spurs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "21", "home_name": "Phoenix Suns", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 113.93446958565971, 113.63003232441963 ], "adjusted_score": [ 113.93446958565971, 113.63003232441963 ], "conditional_score": [ 113.93446958565971, 113.63003232441963 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 83, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 119.74698795180723, 111.67469879518072 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 112.58536585365853, 111.1219512195122 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 114.0, 113.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 114.0, 113.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 114.51582348408283, 110.9463571299281 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.51582348408283, 110.9463571299281 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.51582348408283, 110.9463571299281 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 114.5, 111.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 114.5, 111.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.82927, "pa": 111.52439 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.585365, "pa": 111.12195 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 115.5, 112.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 115.5, 112.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.82927, "pa": 111.52439 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.585365, "pa": 111.12195 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 115.5, 112.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 115.5, 112.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ], "independent_preprice_risks": null, "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Phoenix Suns: Miles Bridges Day-To-Day, Mark Williams Out | San Antonio Spurs: Malik Williams Day-To-Day, De'Aaron Fox Day-To-Day, Maliq Brown Day-To-Day, Jayden Quaintance Out, Tobias Harris Day-To-Day. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Preseason DTD/rest decisions may materially reshape minutes; normalized 240 minute examples are sensitivity only.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898720", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.221284+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.360166+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898720", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.221284+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.360166+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 83 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0; home: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0. Primary training games=2796. Classic/current preseason excludes exhibitions from regular baseline; Primary explicitly models preseason with 0.35 training weight. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NBA.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: San Antonio Spurs; Primary: San Antonio Spurs; Tighten Up Conservative ON: San Antonio Spurs; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: San Antonio Spurs. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -3.569466 to -0.304437. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.1368683772161603 e-13. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401898720", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 113.93446958565971, 113.63003232441963 ], "Primary": [ 114.51582348408283, 110.9463571299281 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "2026-27 preseason verified NBA.com; official start 2026-10-10 10:30 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 2 whole off days.", "official": { "id": "0012600039", "startUTC": "2026-10-11T02:30:00Z", "source": "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10", "stage": "Preseason", "isNeutral": false }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "San Antonio Spurs", "previousEventId": "401898394", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T00:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Atlanta Hawks", "previousVenue": { "id": "780", "fullName": "Frost Bank Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "San Antonio", "state": "TX" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Mortgage Matchup Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Phoenix Suns", "previousEventId": "401908939", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Chicago Bulls", "previousVenue": { "id": "1847", "fullName": "United Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 3, "offDays": 2, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Mortgage Matchup Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Mortgage Matchup Center; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898720", "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10" ], "tu": { "id": "401898720", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401898720", "date": "2026-10-11T02:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1949", "fullName": "Mortgage Matchup Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Phoenix", "state": "AZ" } }, "away": "24", "away_name": "San Antonio Spurs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "21", "home_name": "Phoenix Suns", "home_score": 0.0 }, "unrounded_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.82927, "pa": 111.52439 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.585365, "pa": 111.12195 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 95.47560999999999, 135.47561 ], "home": [ 92.0548775, 132.0548775 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false }, "unavailable_reason": null }, "football_review": null, "opponent_offense_adverse": null, "status": "CANDIDATE_RESEARCH; price-specific gate pending", "matchup": "San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns", "market": { "id": "401898720", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898720", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.392021+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.544679+00:00", "home_line": 6.5, "away_line": -6.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 219.5, "under_line": 219.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 180.0, "away_ml": -218.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 6.5, "average_total": 219.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.3044372612400821, "combined": 227.56450191007934, "spread_buffer": 6.195562738759918, "total_difference": 8.064501910079343 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.3044372612400821, "combined": 227.56450191007934, "spread_buffer": 6.195562738759918, "total_difference": 8.064501910079343 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -3.569466354154727, "combined": 225.46218061401095, "spread_buffer": 2.930533645845273, "total_difference": 5.962180614010947 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -3.569466354154727, "combined": 225.46218061401095, "spread_buffer": 2.930533645845273, "total_difference": 5.962180614010947 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -3.4207324999999855, "combined": 227.5304875, "spread_buffer": 3.0792675000000145, "total_difference": 8.030487499999992 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -3.4207324999999855, "combined": 227.5304875, "spread_buffer": 3.0792675000000145, "total_difference": 8.030487499999992 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -3.4207324999999855, "combined": 227.5304875, "spread_buffer": 3.0792675000000145, "total_difference": 8.030487499999992 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -3.4207324999999855, "combined": 227.5304875, "spread_buffer": 3.0792675000000145, "total_difference": 8.030487499999992 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "761858", "sport": "MLS", "identity": { "id": "761858", "date": "2026-10-11T02:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 13846, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLS", "venue": { "id": "7605", "fullName": "BMO Stadium", "indoor": null, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles, California", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "9727", "away_name": "Vancouver Whitecaps", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "18966", "home_name": "LAFC", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 2 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-11T02:30:00Z matches sporting slate. BMO Stadium" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Calm wind. Saturday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 82. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Saturday Night Showers likely, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 66. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "sources": [ "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/lafcvsvan-10-10-2026/clubs", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/" ], "other_review": { "trades": [ { "player": "Yevhen Cheberko", "position": "D", "date": "2026-06-09", "team": "LAFC", "team_id": "18966", "direction": "acquiring", "counterparty": "Columbus Crew", "counterparty_id": "183", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "D - Yevhen Cheberko (6/9/26 - trade from Columbus Crew)", "roster_identity": { "id": "264469", "name": "Yevhen Cheberko", "roster_team": "LAFC", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/18966/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/264469/stats?team=18966&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-264469-18966.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "18966", "stats": { "STRT": "13", "FC": "13", "FA": "7", "YC": "2", "RC": "0", "G": "0", "A": "1", "SHOT": "3", "SOG": "0", "OF": "0" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Hugo Lloris", "Nkosi Tafari", "Ryan Porteous", "Ryan Hollingshead", "Sergi Palencia", "Eddie Segura", "Yevhen Cheberko", "Mark Delgado", "Jeremy Ebobisse", "Tyler Boyd", "Armindo Sieb" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761835", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "LAFC at FC Dallas" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761835", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "264469", "name": "Yevhen Cheberko", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Left Midfielder", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 1.0, "foulsSuffered": 1.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 1.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "0", "post_trade_starts": "13", "post_last_match_role": "starter", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 123, "documented_new_team_starts": "13", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": null, "pre_trade_starts": "0", "post_trade_starts": "13", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 0.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 1.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Build-up width and set-piece contribution", "direction": "New role can displace reference XI opportunities", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Space/duel coverage and line coordination", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.336225+00:00" }, { "player": "Nathan Ordaz", "position": "F", "date": "2026-07-13", "team": "LAFC", "team_id": "18966", "direction": "sending", "counterparty": "D.C. United", "counterparty_id": "193", "transaction_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/", "source_text": "F - Nathan Ordaz (7/13/26 - trade to D.C. United)", "roster_identity": { "id": "340613", "name": "Nathan Ordaz", "roster_team": "D.C. United", "roster_status": { "id": "1", "name": "Active", "type": "active", "abbreviation": "Active" }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/193/roster" }, "statistical_history_source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/soccer/athletes/340613/stats?team=18966&league=usa.1", "raw_history_file": "history-340613-18966.json", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "offensive", "season": 2026, "stage": "Regular Season", "teamId": "18966", "stats": { "STRT": "6", "FC": "8", "FA": "4", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "2", "A": "0", "SHOT": "8", "SOG": "3", "OF": "1" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "18966", "stats": { "STRT": "15", "FC": "15", "FA": "17", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "5", "A": "4", "SHOT": "28", "SOG": "14", "OF": "11" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2025, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "18966", "stats": { "STRT": "2", "FC": "1", "FA": "1", "YC": "0", "RC": "0", "G": "1", "A": "0", "SHOT": "3", "SOG": "2", "OF": "0" } }, { "category": "offensive", "season": 2024, "stage": "MLS Cup", "teamId": "18966", "stats": { "STRT": "3", "FC": "7", "FA": "8", "YC": "1", "RC": "0", "G": "1", "A": "4", "SHOT": "7", "SOG": "3", "OF": "2" } } ], "reference_lineup": [ "Hugo Lloris", "Nkosi Tafari", "Ryan Porteous", "Ryan Hollingshead", "Sergi Palencia", "Eddie Segura", "Yevhen Cheberko", "Mark Delgado", "Jeremy Ebobisse", "Tyler Boyd", "Armindo Sieb" ], "reference_event": { "id": "761835", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "LAFC at FC Dallas" }, "reference_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761835", "current_last_match_participation": { "id": "340613", "name": "Nathan Ordaz", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right Forward", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": true, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 1.0, "offsides": 1.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 2.0 } }, "official_oct10_status": [ "Not listed in captured official report; absence of entry is not active-list confirmation." ], "status_source": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11", "pre_post_role": { "pre_trade_starts": "6", "post_trade_starts": "4", "post_last_match_role": "starter", "unreturned_is_zero": false }, "familiarity": { "calendar_days_since_trade": 89, "documented_new_team_starts": "4", "interpretation": "Prior new-team starts demonstrate match exposure; training, tactical fluency and quality of relationships are not quantified." }, "opportunity_change": { "sending_registered_player_allocation": 0, "pre_trade_starts": "6", "post_trade_starts": "4", "expected_oct10_minutes": null, "reason": "Departure removes eligibility for former club. New minutes and redistributed reference-XI workloads are unconfirmed; unequal-length pre/post starts are not a per-game rate." }, "calculations": { "pre_goals_plus_assists": 2.0, "post_goals_plus_assists": 2.0, "goal_conversion": null, "reason": "G+A and shots are descriptive split totals, not causal replacement expected goals. Minutes, counterfactual replacement and registered conversion unavailable." }, "offensive_pathway": { "role": "Finishing, shot creation and pressing starts", "direction": "Former role redistributed to reference XI", "effect_goals": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: no registered MLS score engine; no arbitrary goal change." }, "defensive_pathway": { "role": "Pressing and transition coverage", "effect_goals_against": null, "conclusion": "UNESTIMATED: observed goals/assists do not identify defensive contribution; no zero claim." }, "base_adjusted": { "Classic": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Primary": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "gate": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "human_minus_three": 0 } }, "historical_stage_caveat": "Vendor labels some2024/25 full-season-sized records MLS Cup. Retained without using them as validated regular/postseason samples; current2026 regular role summaries only.", "review_status": "REVIEWED: conditional/unestimated, no numeric MLS output or live tier", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-10T10:13:40.337230+00:00" } ], "references": { "away": { "teamId": "9727", "team": "Vancouver Whitecaps", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/9727/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761660", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.932056+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:26.476251+00:00", "event": { "id": "761660", "date": "2026-10-07T00:30Z", "name": "Vancouver Whitecaps at Chicago Fire FC" }, "referenceXI": [ "Yohei Takaoka", "Tristan Blackmon", "Math\u00edas Laborda", "Tate Johnson", "Rui Modesto", "Ryan Gauld", "Aleksa Cvetkovi\u0107", "Oliver Larraz", "Brian White", "Emmanuel Sabbi", "Cheick Sabaly" ], "formation": "4-2-3-1", "roster": [ { "id": "272338", "name": "Yohei Takaoka", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "saves": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "256476", "name": "Tristan Blackmon", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Left Defender", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 2.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "subIns": 0.0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "goalsConceded": 3.0, "shotsFaced": 0.0, "goalAssists": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "shotsOnTarget": 0.0, "totalGoals": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0 } }, { "id": "286523", "name": "Math\u00edas Laborda", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Center Right 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Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." }, "home": { "teamId": "18966", "team": "LAFC", "schedule_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/18966/schedule?season=2026", "summary_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761835", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:13:24.982159+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:13:25.466129+00:00", "event": { "id": "761835", "date": "2026-09-27T00:30Z", "name": "LAFC at FC Dallas" }, "referenceXI": [ "Hugo Lloris", "Nkosi Tafari", "Ryan Porteous", "Ryan Hollingshead", "Sergi Palencia", "Eddie Segura", "Yevhen Cheberko", "Mark Delgado", "Jeremy Ebobisse", "Tyler Boyd", "Armindo Sieb" ], "formation": "4-3-3", "roster": [ { "id": "43372", "name": "Hugo Lloris", "starter": true, "active": true, "position": "Goalkeeper", "subbedIn": false, "subbedOut": false, "statistics": { "appearances": 1.0, "foulsCommitted": 0.0, "foulsSuffered": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "redCards": 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Sporting allowlist retained; bundled prices/news discarded." } } }, "status": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE", "matchup": "Vancouver Whitecaps at LAFC", "market": { "id": "761858", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761858", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.392021+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.691927+00:00", "home_line": -0.5, "away_line": 0.5, "home_line_price": 130.0, "away_line_price": -180.0, "total": 2.5, "under_line": 2.5, "over_price": -170.0, "under_price": 135.0, "home_ml": 135.0, "away_ml": 165.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "draw_ml": 255.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "moneyline_scope": "Regulation three-way including draw" } ], "average_home_line": -0.5, "average_total": 2.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus", "complete_required_market": true }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NOT PUBLISHED; release QA pending", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } } ] }