{ "createdUtc": "2026-10-10T10:53:37.562393+00:00", "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "status": "SELECTED FOR USER-AUTHORIZED WEBSITE; RELEASE QA PENDING", "selections": [ { "event_id": "401864518", "matchup": "North Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "North Dakota State Bison", "line": -2.5, "price": -112.0 }, "potential_tier": "Pick of the Day", "eligibility_rank": 1, "pick": "North Dakota State Bison -2.5 (-112)", "tier": "Pick of the Day", "price": -112.0, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864518", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.924494+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.085338+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 114.0, "away_ml": -135.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "rationale": "OFF mean buffer 15.53; minimum stressed buffer 9.00; 1 unresolved medium risks. All recorded branches and applicable opponent-offense check retained.", "full_gate": { "event_id": "401864518", "matchup": "North Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "North Dakota State Bison", "line": -2.5, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864518", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.924494+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.085338+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 114.0, "away_ml": -135.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 15.530000000000005, "production_adjusted": 15.530000000000005, "minimum_all_scenarios": 11.999230769230774, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "directional_buffer": 6.818181818181817, "scenario_minimum": 6.818181818181817 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "directional_buffer": -1.569585337314635, "scenario_minimum": -1.569585337314635 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 15.530000000000005, "scenario_minimum": 15.530000000000005 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 15.530000000000005, "scenario_minimum": 15.530000000000005 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 36.120769230769234, 21.62153846153846 ], "directional_buffer": 11.999230769230774, "stressed_buffer": 8.999230769230774 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "directional_buffer": 15.530000000000005, "stressed_buffer": 12.530000000000005 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 36.120769230769234, 21.62153846153846 ], "directional_buffer": 11.999230769230774, "stressed_buffer": 8.999230769230774 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 36.120769230769234, 21.62153846153846 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 34.96153846153847, 24.46153846153846 ], "currentMatchup": [ 28.6, 17.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.340000000000001, -2.8400000000000007 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "Enclosed playing venue", "source": null, "window": "Indoor venue; field weather not applied. Travel effects unestimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": "Pick of the Day", "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE", "eligibility_rank": 1 } }, { "event_id": "401868212", "matchup": "San Diego Toreros at Butler Bulldogs", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Butler Bulldogs", "line": 2.5, "price": -108.0 }, "potential_tier": "Bonus Pick", "eligibility_rank": 2, "pick": "Butler Bulldogs +2.5 (-108)", "tier": "Bonus Pick", "price": -108.0, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868212", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.453160+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.695272+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -118.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 129.0, "away_ml": -160.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "rationale": "OFF mean buffer 11.48; minimum stressed buffer 8.21; 0 unresolved medium risks. All recorded branches and applicable opponent-offense check retained.", "full_gate": { "event_id": "401868212", "matchup": "San Diego Toreros at Butler Bulldogs", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [ "CONFIGURED_GATES_PASSED" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Butler Bulldogs", "line": 2.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868212", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.453160+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.695272+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -118.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 129.0, "away_ml": -160.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 11.4775, "production_adjusted": 11.4775, "minimum_all_scenarios": 11.214999999999996, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.36363636363636, 31.340909090909086 ], "directional_buffer": 7.477272727272727, "scenario_minimum": 7.477272727272727 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.765208983464273, 34.1494590287473 ], "directional_buffer": 13.884250045283029, "scenario_minimum": 13.884250045283029 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 11.4775, "scenario_minimum": 11.4775 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 11.4775, "scenario_minimum": 11.4775 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.738333333333337, 34.45333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 11.214999999999996, "stressed_buffer": 8.214999999999996 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 11.4775, "stressed_buffer": 8.4775 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.738333333333337, 34.45333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 11.214999999999996, "stressed_buffer": 8.214999999999996 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.738333333333333, 34.45333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 26.875, 23.583333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.4, 39.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.6616666666666668, 3.161666666666667 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Indianapolis&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=39.7764&textField2=-86.1462&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Southeast wind 5 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 18, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": "Bonus Pick", "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE", "eligibility_rank": 2 } } ], "withheld": [ "401867987", "401869949" ], "withheld_reason": "Newly reviewed official flood/rain-band regime is unbounded by ordinary three-point stress.", "all_four_comparison": true, "confidence": null, "stake": null, "prior_price_exposure": true }