{ "created": "2026-10-10T10:25:47.274630+00:00", "events": [ { "eventId": "401856716", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Bussey third in receiving yards with 7 catches/92 yards; Craver second with 23/235. Distinct receiver opportunities support separate isolated scenarios. Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained. | Hardy is an established 2025 lead back still OUT after offseason injury. Roberts already leads 2026 with 113 carries/606 yards; current scoring already contains that redistribution. Retain separate authorized human -3, with statistical incremental effect unestimated, not another rate-based downgrade.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 27.601666666666667, 29.344166666666666 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.875, 27.041666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.9, 28.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.2733333333333331, 1.773333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 143, "def_points_proxy": 93, "off_plays": 435, "off_yards": 2371, "def_plays": 350, "def_yards": 2090, "early_plays": 315, "early_yards": 1387, "explosive_plays": 24, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856668", "401856683", "401856694", "401856702", "401856711" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.4655172413793105, "def_ppd": 1.603448275862069, "off_ypp": 5.450574712643678, "def_ypp": 5.9714285714285715, "early_down_ypp": 4.4031746031746035 }, "home": { "off_drives": 64, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 185, "def_points_proxy": 95, "off_plays": 418, "off_yards": 2918, "def_plays": 434, "def_yards": 2172, "early_plays": 308, "early_yards": 1972, "explosive_plays": 44, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856663", "401856678", "401856689", "401856703", "401856708" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.890625, "def_ppd": 1.5573770491803278, "off_ypp": 6.980861244019139, "def_ypp": 5.0046082949308754, "early_down_ypp": 6.402597402597403 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Increasing clouds, with a high near 89. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 58. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Columbia&state=MO&site=LSX&textField1=38.9541&textField2=-92.3267&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Texas A&M Aggies", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Mario Craver" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856716", "matchup": "Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Texas A&M Aggies", "names": [ "Mario Craver" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Texas A&M Aggies", "names": [ "Terry Bussey" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Missouri Tigers", "names": [ "Ahmad Hardy" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Texas A&M Aggies", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Mario Craver" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401856823", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered. | West Virginia Mountaineers: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 34.149166666666666, 25.505 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.708333333333336, 20.333333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.6, 27.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.995, -1.495 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 56, "def_drives": 52, "off_points_proxy": 155, "def_points_proxy": 69, "off_plays": 421, "off_yards": 2636, "def_plays": 390, "def_yards": 1911, "early_plays": 321, "early_yards": 1733, "explosive_plays": 37, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856773", "401856793", "401856804", "401856810", "401856820" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.767857142857143, "def_ppd": 1.3269230769230769, "off_ypp": 6.261282660332542, "def_ypp": 4.9, "early_down_ypp": 5.398753894080997 }, "home": { "off_drives": 64, "def_drives": 63, "off_points_proxy": 187, "def_points_proxy": 137, "off_plays": 440, "off_yards": 2586, "def_plays": 465, "def_yards": 2658, "early_plays": 318, "early_yards": 1801, "explosive_plays": 40, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856780", "401856791", "401856802", "401856822", "401856881" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.921875, "def_ppd": 2.1746031746031744, "off_ypp": 5.877272727272727, "def_ypp": 5.716129032258064, "early_down_ypp": 5.663522012578617 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Tonight Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 5am. Low around 57. East wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Morgantown&state=WV&site=PBZ&textField1=39.6356&textField2=-79.9498&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856823", "matchup": "Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "names": [ "Giovanni Richardson", "Chris Hunter III" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "names": [ "Cole Rusk" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401856824", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Barnett has 49 attempts but is OUT; Jenkins has already assumed greater passing volume (76 attempts) and is PROBABLE. Carr has no verified material game workload and no additional deduction. Jenkins' 19/20 TCU performance and work with QB coach McKenzie Milton verify current team experience, not equivalence to Barnett. If Jenkins is later ruled out a new named Annett scenario is required; do not presume PROBABLE means unavailable. | Oklahoma State Cowboys: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 29.175833333333333, 27.203333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 28.833333333333336, 18.875 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.075, 27.425 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.721666666666667, -0.2216666666666669 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 63, "off_points_proxy": 157, "def_points_proxy": 87, "off_plays": 354, "off_yards": 2262, "def_plays": 467, "def_yards": 2476, "early_plays": 255, "early_yards": 1627, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856767", "401856790", "401856800", "401856815", "401856819" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.6610169491525424, "def_ppd": 1.380952380952381, "off_ypp": 6.389830508474576, "def_ypp": 5.301927194860814, "early_down_ypp": 6.3803921568627455 }, "home": { "off_drives": 51, "def_drives": 48, "off_points_proxy": 149, "def_points_proxy": 72, "off_plays": 379, "off_yards": 2717, "def_plays": 331, "def_yards": 1732, "early_plays": 285, "early_yards": 2033, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856772", "401856782", "401856803", "401856881" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.9215686274509802, "def_ppd": 1.5, "off_ypp": 7.1688654353562, "def_ypp": 5.232628398791541, "early_down_ypp": 7.133333333333334 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 90. Light south southeast wind becoming south southwest 8 to 13 mph in the morning. Tonight Clear, with a low around 64. South wind around 9 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Stillwater&state=OK&site=OUN&textField1=36.131&textField2=-97.0717&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856824", "matchup": "UCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "UCF Knights", "names": [ "Alonza Barnett III" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [] }, { "eventId": "401858256", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Shipp leads receiving with 20 catches/273 yards; QUESTIONABLE stays two branches. Thurman 16/233 already anchors a receiving-TE pathway. Listed reserve TEs are not automatically additional deductions. | Official October 5 coach report confirms Heintschel season-ending ACL injury and Geriner starter. Geriner completed 19/26 for 219 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in three appearances. First full start, third school in five years, current work with Kade Bell; changing coaches is not proof of no familiarity. No independent defensive score adjustment.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.491666666666667, 34.4625 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 22.083333333333336, 29.791666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 18.7, 28.95 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.5916666666666672, 5.091666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 41, "def_drives": 42, "off_points_proxy": 96, "def_points_proxy": 83, "off_plays": 290, "off_yards": 1853, "def_plays": 351, "def_yards": 1814, "early_plays": 213, "early_yards": 1246, "explosive_plays": 24, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856766", "401858218", "401858229", "401858250" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.341463414634146, "def_ppd": 1.9761904761904763, "off_ypp": 6.389655172413793, "def_ypp": 5.168091168091168, "early_down_ypp": 5.849765258215962 }, "home": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 192, "def_points_proxy": 67, "off_plays": 419, "off_yards": 2695, "def_plays": 417, "def_yards": 2180, "early_plays": 306, "early_yards": 1906, "explosive_plays": 39, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856790", "401858207", "401858225", "401858236", "401858245" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.2, "def_ppd": 1.0806451612903225, "off_ypp": 6.4319809069212415, "def_ypp": 5.227817745803358, "early_down_ypp": 6.228758169934641 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Light east wind becoming southeast 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Tonight Showers, mainly after 2am. Low around 57. East wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Pittsburgh&state=PA&site=PBZ&textField1=40.4392&textField2=-79.9767&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Jordan Shipp" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858256", "matchup": "North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels", "names": [ "Jordan Shipp" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "names": [ "Mason Heintschel" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "names": [ "Elijah Lagg" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." }, { "type": "replacement_experience", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Geriner first full start with small current sample.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Jordan Shipp" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401858260", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Scott is top rusher at 62 carries/358 yards. Gause already has 46/188. Trader has 16 catches/221 yards and remains QUESTIONABLE. Combined -6 represents distinct rushing and receiving role assumptions; Scott's three catches not counted again. Ploog/Flynt are not the leading receiving option.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.10666666666667, 30.759999999999998 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.833333333333332, 25.833333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 31.1, 29.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.6400000000000002, 0.8599999999999998 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 54, "def_drives": 59, "off_points_proxy": 183, "def_points_proxy": 115, "off_plays": 409, "off_yards": 2692, "def_plays": 488, "def_yards": 2495, "early_plays": 298, "early_yards": 1933, "explosive_plays": 38, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858204", "401858224", "401858226", "401858243", "401858251" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.388888888888889, "def_ppd": 1.9491525423728813, "off_ypp": 6.581907090464548, "def_ypp": 5.112704918032787, "early_down_ypp": 6.4865771812080535 }, "home": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 182, "def_points_proxy": 121, "off_plays": 453, "off_yards": 2588, "def_plays": 390, "def_yards": 2329, "early_plays": 327, "early_yards": 1829, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856695", "401858202", "401858222", "401858248", "401864572" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.9836065573770494, "def_ppd": 1.9836065573770492, "off_ypp": 5.713024282560706, "def_ypp": 5.971794871794872, "early_down_ypp": 5.5932721712538225 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Rain likely, mainly between 1pm and 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 69. East wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tonight Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Low around 66. East wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Raleigh&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.822&textField2=-78.6588&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Joshisa Trader" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858260", "matchup": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "names": [ "Joshisa Trader" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "names": [ "Jayden Scott" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Joshisa Trader" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401858481", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Indiana Hoosiers: current report contains 3 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Nebraska Cornhuskers: current report contains 2 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.71346153846154, 25.817307692307697 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 32.46153846153846, 20.048076923076923 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.200000000000003, 27.200000000000003 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.882692307692307, -1.3826923076923072 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 53, "def_drives": 55, "off_points_proxy": 214, "def_points_proxy": 56, "off_plays": 402, "off_yards": 2983, "def_plays": 404, "def_yards": 1667, "early_plays": 285, "early_yards": 2221, "explosive_plays": 49, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858425", "401858439", "401858449", "401858461", "401858477" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 4.037735849056604, "def_ppd": 1.018181818181818, "off_ypp": 7.420398009950249, "def_ypp": 4.126237623762377, "early_down_ypp": 7.792982456140351 }, "home": { "off_drives": 56, "def_drives": 60, "off_points_proxy": 205, "def_points_proxy": 70, "off_plays": 426, "off_yards": 2825, "def_plays": 396, "def_yards": 2166, "early_plays": 319, "early_yards": 2125, "explosive_plays": 39, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858430", "401858441", "401858452", "401858464", "401858475" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.6607142857142856, "def_ppd": 1.1666666666666667, "off_ypp": 6.631455399061033, "def_ypp": 5.46969696969697, "early_down_ypp": 6.661442006269592 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 91. Breezy, with a south wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 68. South wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lincoln&state=NE&site=OAX&textField1=40.8164&textField2=-96.6882&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858481", "matchup": "Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [] }, { "eventId": "401862795", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Tulane Green Wave: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Army Black Knights: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.392948717948716, 28.07019230769231 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.580128205128204, 22.516025641025642 ], "currentMatchup": [ 19.25, 28.25 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.1871794871794876, 2.6871794871794874 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 46, "def_drives": 47, "off_points_proxy": 75, "def_points_proxy": 93, "off_plays": 313, "off_yards": 1849, "def_plays": 349, "def_yards": 2008, "early_plays": 214, "early_yards": 1138, "explosive_plays": 28, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856792", "401858209", "401862784", "401864575" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 1.6304347826086956, "def_ppd": 1.9787234042553192, "off_ypp": 5.907348242811501, "def_ypp": 5.7535816618911175, "early_down_ypp": 5.317757009345795 }, "home": { "off_drives": 39, "def_drives": 39, "off_points_proxy": 132, "def_points_proxy": 79, "off_plays": 328, "off_yards": 1930, "def_plays": 282, "def_yards": 2047, "early_plays": 251, "early_yards": 1460, "explosive_plays": 27, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862701", "401862702", "401862779", "401869842" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 3.3846153846153846, "def_ppd": 2.0256410256410255, "off_ypp": 5.884146341463414, "def_ypp": 7.25886524822695, "early_down_ypp": 5.816733067729084 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Light and variable wind. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Calm wind. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=West+Point&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=41.3623&textField2=-74.0273&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Tulane Green Wave", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Army Black Knights", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401862795", "matchup": "Tulane Green Wave at Army Black Knights", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Tulane Green Wave", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Army Black Knights", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Tulane Green Wave", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Army Black Knights", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401866436", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Sacramento State Hornets: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Bowling Green Falcons: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 29.334999999999997, 22.69 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.0, 23.375 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.3, 20.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.185, -0.685 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 84, "def_points_proxy": 128, "off_plays": 433, "off_yards": 2099, "def_plays": 386, "def_yards": 2127, "early_plays": 306, "early_yards": 1548, "explosive_plays": 26, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401860883", "401864507", "401866408", "401866411", "401866429" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.3770491803278688, "def_ppd": 2.098360655737705, "off_ypp": 4.84757505773672, "def_ypp": 5.510362694300518, "early_down_ypp": 5.0588235294117645 }, "home": { "off_drives": 54, "def_drives": 53, "off_points_proxy": 57, "def_points_proxy": 150, "off_plays": 382, "off_yards": 1952, "def_plays": 362, "def_yards": 2720, "early_plays": 260, "early_yards": 1223, "explosive_plays": 24, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856798", "401858441", "401862785", "401866410", "401866477" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.0555555555555556, "def_ppd": 2.830188679245283, "off_ypp": 5.109947643979058, "def_ypp": 7.513812154696133, "early_down_ypp": 4.703846153846154 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Southeast wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Tonight A chance of rain, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Low around 58. Southeast wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bowling+Green&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.3764&textField2=-83.6495&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Sacramento State Hornets", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Bowling Green Falcons", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866436", "matchup": "Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green Falcons", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Sacramento State Hornets", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Bowling Green Falcons", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Sacramento State Hornets", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Bowling Green Falcons", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401866658", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "North Carolina A&T Aggies: QB Kevin White, RB J.T. Smith/Shimique Blizzard/RJ Baker, WR Michael Carlock-Williams/Elijah Kennedy/Jayvonne Dillard, TE Anthony Rucker; New Hampshire Wildcats: QB Brooks Bentley/Barry Kleinpeter, RB Joquez Smith/Myles Thomason, WR Ja'Carree Kelly/Logan Perez/Josh Fillion, TE Colby Ramshaw/Drew Danson", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.3323717948718, 24.691666666666666 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 34.21474358974359, 21.673076923076923 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.5, 25.666666666666668 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.4750000000000005, -0.9750000000000005 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 71, "def_drives": 76, "off_points_proxy": 97, "def_points_proxy": 196, "off_plays": 467, "off_yards": 2591, "def_plays": 534, "def_yards": 3270, "early_plays": 318, "early_yards": 1839, "explosive_plays": 41, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858208", "401866616", "401866631", "401866639", "401866642", "401866650" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.3661971830985915, "def_ppd": 2.5789473684210527, "off_ypp": 5.548179871520342, "def_ypp": 6.123595505617978, "early_down_ypp": 5.783018867924528 }, "home": { "off_drives": 68, "def_drives": 67, "off_points_proxy": 98, "def_points_proxy": 197, "off_plays": 493, "off_yards": 2703, "def_plays": 471, "def_yards": 3197, "early_plays": 343, "early_yards": 1603, "explosive_plays": 42, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866618", "401866623", "401866633", "401866636", "401866644", "401866653" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.4411764705882353, "def_ppd": 2.9402985074626864, "off_ypp": 5.482758620689655, "def_ypp": 6.7876857749469215, "early_down_ypp": 4.673469387755102 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2448", "teamName": "North Carolina A&T Aggies", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866653", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "North Carolina A&T Aggies at Bryant Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Beirne Stadium", "address": { "city": "Smithfield", "state": "RI", "zipCode": "02917", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2803", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2803", "displayName": "Bryant Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2448", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2448", "displayName": "North Carolina A&T Aggies" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ncataggies.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "160", "teamName": "New Hampshire Wildcats", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866650", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Elon Phoenix at New Hampshire Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Wildcat Stadium (NH)", "address": { "city": "Durham", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03824", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "160", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "160", "displayName": "New Hampshire Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2210", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 23.0, "displayValue": "23" }, "team": { "id": "2210", "displayName": "Elon Phoenix" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://unhwildcats.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Greensboro. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:12.978247+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Rain, mainly before 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 64. Northeast wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tonight Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Low around 63. East wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866658", "matchup": "New Hampshire Wildcats at North Carolina A&T Aggies", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401866660", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Sacred Heart Pioneers: QB Poochie Snyder/John Michalski, RB Darius Chukwuemeka, WR Dean Hangey/Ben Evee, TE Logan Lyson/Chris Leggett; Stonehill Skyhawks: QB Jack O'Connell/Drew Eason, RB Shane Eason/Aidan Garrett/Rayshaun King, WR Shawn Corchado/Jaylin Baker/An'Tiyan Neal, TE Cole Clarke/Kevin Sheridan", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.933333333333334, 28.1 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 25.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.4, 23.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.7333333333333334, 3.2333333333333334 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 54, "off_points_proxy": 83, "def_points_proxy": 127, "off_plays": 412, "off_yards": 1988, "def_plays": 384, "def_yards": 2511, "early_plays": 279, "early_yards": 1342, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866424", "401866428", "401866619", "401866631", "401867924" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.4310344827586208, "def_ppd": 2.3518518518518516, "off_ypp": 4.825242718446602, "def_ypp": 6.5390625, "early_down_ypp": 4.810035842293907 }, "home": { "off_drives": 53, "def_drives": 48, "off_points_proxy": 99, "def_points_proxy": 108, "off_plays": 434, "off_yards": 2439, "def_plays": 348, "def_yards": 2044, "early_plays": 314, "early_yards": 1565, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866420", "401866624", "401866637", "401866642", "401866652" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.8679245283018868, "def_ppd": 2.25, "off_ypp": 5.619815668202765, "def_ypp": 5.873563218390805, "early_down_ypp": 4.984076433121019 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2529", "teamName": "Sacred Heart Pioneers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866652", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Sacred Heart Pioneers at Maine Black Bears", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Harold Alfond Sports Stadium", "address": { "city": "Orono", "state": "ME", "zipCode": "04473", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "311", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "311", "displayName": "Maine Black Bears" } }, { "id": "2529", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2529", "displayName": "Sacred Heart Pioneers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://sacredheartpioneers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "284", "teamName": "Stonehill Skyhawks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866428", "date": "2026-09-26T19:30Z", "name": "Stonehill Skyhawks at Ohio Bobcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Peden Stadium", "address": { "city": "Athens", "state": "OH", "zipCode": "45701", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "195", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "195", "displayName": "Ohio Bobcats" } }, { "id": "284", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "284", "displayName": "Stonehill Skyhawks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 13.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://stonehillskyhawks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Fairfield. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fairfield&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.13&textField2=-73.28&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:13.282518+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 66. North wind around 6 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Light east wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866660", "matchup": "Stonehill Skyhawks at Sacred Heart Pioneers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401866662", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Brown Bears: QB James Murphy, RB Matt Childs/Qwentin Brown/Eli Jones, WR Pearson Hill/Carson Hill/Saphir Miller, TE Levi Linowes/Jadon Garza-Pender; Bryant Bulldogs: QB Brennan Myer, RB OJ Ross/Jordan Bennett/Kendrick Agenor, WR Jose Leon/Shamar Fowles, TE Maximus Nosler/Koby Keenan", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. Current .50 influence cap violation: PASS required.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 23.976666666666667, 25.165 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.75, 28.416666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 17.366666666666667 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.7733333333333331, 2.273333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 49, "def_drives": 50, "off_points_proxy": 110, "def_points_proxy": 112, "off_plays": 411, "off_yards": 2095, "def_plays": 397, "def_yards": 2767, "early_plays": 290, "early_yards": 1526, "explosive_plays": 25, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862701", "401866619", "401866629", "401866638", "401866653" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.2448979591836733, "def_ppd": 2.24, "off_ypp": 5.097323600973236, "def_ypp": 6.969773299748111, "early_down_ypp": 5.2620689655172415 }, "home": { "off_drives": 38, "def_drives": 36, "off_points_proxy": 37, "def_points_proxy": 37, "off_plays": 241, "off_yards": 1135, "def_plays": 276, "def_yards": 1295, "early_plays": 176, "early_yards": 814, "explosive_plays": 14, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866654", "401867805", "401867806" ], "games": 3, "off_ppd": 0.9736842105263158, "def_ppd": 1.0277777777777777, "off_ypp": 4.70954356846473, "def_ypp": 4.692028985507246, "early_down_ypp": 4.625 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "225", "teamName": "Brown Bears", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866654", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Brown Bears at Rhode Island Rams", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Centreville Bank Stadium", "address": { "city": "Pawtucket", "state": "RI", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "227", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 13.0, "displayValue": "13" }, "team": { "id": "227", "displayName": "Rhode Island Rams" } }, { "id": "225", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "225", "displayName": "Brown Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://brownbears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2803", "teamName": "Bryant Bulldogs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866653", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "North Carolina A&T Aggies at Bryant Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Beirne Stadium", "address": { "city": "Smithfield", "state": "RI", "zipCode": "02917", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2803", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2803", "displayName": "Bryant Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2448", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2448", "displayName": "North Carolina A&T Aggies" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://bryantbulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Providence. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Providence&state=RI&site=BOX&textField1=41.822&textField2=-71.4197&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:13.388130+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Calm wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866662", "matchup": "Bryant Bulldogs at Brown Bears", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401867836", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Yale Bulldogs: QB Charles Hewitt/Dante Reno, RB Hugo Djeumeni Kemeni/Cuttler Adams/Vann Hopping, WR Lucius Anderson/Jaxton Santiago/Reid Jones, TE Graham Smith/Brady Wagner; Dartmouth Big Green: QB Grayson Saunier, RB Myles Craddock/Chris Roper/Jacob Henry, WR Ky'Dric Fisher/James Elliott/Nick Lemon, TE Kyle Meier/Kristian Strong", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. Current .50 influence cap violation: PASS required.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.30166666666667, 29.273333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 22.991666666666667, 25.316666666666666 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.333333333333336, 28.166666666666664 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.0316666666666667, 2.5316666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 25, "def_drives": 26, "off_points_proxy": 62, "def_points_proxy": 65, "off_plays": 231, "off_yards": 1383, "def_plays": 272, "def_yards": 1400, "early_plays": 161, "early_yards": 754, "explosive_plays": 20, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866647", "401867834", "401867835" ], "games": 3, "off_ppd": 2.48, "def_ppd": 2.5, "off_ypp": 5.987012987012987, "def_ypp": 5.147058823529412, "early_down_ypp": 4.683229813664596 }, "home": { "off_drives": 42, "def_drives": 41, "off_points_proxy": 103, "def_points_proxy": 83, "off_plays": 286, "off_yards": 1950, "def_plays": 242, "def_yards": 1295, "early_plays": 208, "early_yards": 1376, "explosive_plays": 34, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867827", "401868023", "401870840" ], "games": 3, "off_ppd": 2.4523809523809526, "def_ppd": 2.024390243902439, "off_ypp": 6.818181818181818, "def_ypp": 5.351239669421488, "early_down_ypp": 6.615384615384615 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "43", "teamName": "Yale Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401870840", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Merrimack Warriors at Yale Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Yale Bowl", "address": { "city": "New Haven", "state": "CT", "zipCode": "06515", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "43", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "43", "displayName": "Yale Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2771", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2771", "displayName": "Merrimack Warriors" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://yalebulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "159", "teamName": "Dartmouth Big Green", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867835", "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "name": "Pennsylvania Quakers at Dartmouth Big Green", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Memorial Field (Dartmouth)", "address": { "city": "Hanover", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03755", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "159", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "159", "displayName": "Dartmouth Big Green" } }, { "id": "219", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "219", "displayName": "Pennsylvania Quakers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.938, "officialScheduleSource": "https://dartmouthsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to New Haven. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Haven&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.3101&textField2=-72.9241&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:13.776274+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Light and variable wind becoming north around 6 mph. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Calm wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867836", "matchup": "Dartmouth Big Green at Yale Bulldogs", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401867919", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Morgan State Bears: QB Cameron Edge/Tahj Smith, RB Jordan Barnett/Keith Jenkins Jr./Dorian Harris, WR Justin Perry/Dante Archie/Joseph Kennerly Jr., TE Malachi Bryant/Alex Simmons; Robert Morris Colonials: QB Carson Haggard, RB Xavier Goulbourne/Donta Whack/Breyon Williams, WR Jaqai Carter/Noah Schaerli/Attawan Mays, TE Tyreke Jinks/Max Lopacienski", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.650000000000002, 28.5625 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.875, 24.125 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.6, 28.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.9500000000000002, 2.45 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 108, "def_points_proxy": 117, "off_plays": 374, "off_yards": 2034, "def_plays": 452, "def_yards": 2620, "early_plays": 263, "early_yards": 1378, "explosive_plays": 31, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866412", "401866426", "401867916", "401867917", "401867918" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.8305084745762712, "def_ppd": 1.9180327868852458, "off_ypp": 5.438502673796791, "def_ypp": 5.79646017699115, "early_down_ypp": 5.239543726235741 }, "home": { "off_drives": 55, "def_drives": 55, "off_points_proxy": 152, "def_points_proxy": 139, "off_plays": 348, "off_yards": 2413, "def_plays": 434, "def_yards": 2945, "early_plays": 254, "early_yards": 1886, "explosive_plays": 30, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856774", "401866618", "401866640", "401867966", "401867967" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.7636363636363637, "def_ppd": 2.5272727272727273, "off_ypp": 6.933908045977011, "def_ypp": 6.785714285714286, "early_down_ypp": 7.425196850393701 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2415", "teamName": "Morgan State Bears", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867967", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Morgan State Bears at Villanova Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Villanova Stadium", "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "19085", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "222", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "222", "displayName": "Villanova Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2415", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "2415", "displayName": "Morgan State Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://morganstatebears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2523", "teamName": "Robert Morris Colonials", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867918", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Norfolk State Spartans at Robert Morris Colonials", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Joe Walton Stadium", "address": { "city": "Moon Township", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "15108", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2523", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "2523", "displayName": "Robert Morris Colonials" } }, { "id": "2450", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2450", "displayName": "Norfolk State Spartans" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://rmucolonials.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Baltimore. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Baltimore&state=MD&site=LWX&textField1=39.3008&textField2=-76.6106&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:13.892478+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Tonight A chance of showers, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867919", "matchup": "Robert Morris Colonials at Morgan State Bears", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401867930", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Wagner Seahawks: QB Benjamin Newman/Trip Maxwell, RB Shawn James/Sekou Kamau, WR Zion Fowler-El/Derek Burrell/Jeremiah Colclough, TE Christopher Harris/Johans Bars; Princeton Tigers: QB Wyatt Becker/Ty Ciongoli, RB Kai Honda/Ethan Clark/Christian Lynch, WR Josh Smith/Aidan Besselman/Jackson Green, TE no primary receiver established", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. Current .50 influence cap violation: PASS required.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.00333333333334, 16.946666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 22.65, 20.40833333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.43333333333334, 10.866666666666667 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.961666666666668, -3.461666666666668 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 30, "def_drives": 28, "off_points_proxy": 73, "def_points_proxy": 28, "off_plays": 200, "off_yards": 1189, "def_plays": 260, "def_yards": 1186, "early_plays": 142, "early_yards": 907, "explosive_plays": 20, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866638", "401866646", "401867819" ], "games": 3, "off_ppd": 2.433333333333333, "def_ppd": 1.0, "off_ypp": 5.945, "def_ypp": 4.561538461538461, "early_down_ypp": 6.387323943661972 }, "home": { "off_drives": 70, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 76, "def_points_proxy": 180, "off_plays": 457, "off_yards": 2022, "def_plays": 374, "def_yards": 2662, "early_plays": 298, "early_yards": 1238, "explosive_plays": 26, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858233", "401867899", "401867916", "401867928", "401867929" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.0857142857142856, "def_ppd": 2.903225806451613, "off_ypp": 4.424507658643326, "def_ypp": 7.117647058823529, "early_down_ypp": 4.154362416107382 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2681", "teamName": "Wagner Seahawks", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867899", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Wagner Seahawks at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Arute Field", "address": { "city": "New Britain", "state": "CT", "zipCode": "06053", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2115", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 45.0, "displayValue": "45" }, "team": { "id": "2115", "displayName": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils" } }, { "id": "2681", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2681", "displayName": "Wagner Seahawks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://wagnerathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "163", "teamName": "Princeton Tigers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867819", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Princeton Tigers at Columbia Lions", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Lawrence A. Wien Stadium", "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY", "zipCode": "10034", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "171", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "171", "displayName": "Columbia Lions" } }, { "id": "163", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "163", "displayName": "Princeton Tigers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goprincetontigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Staten Island. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Staten+Island&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=40.5866&textField2=-74.1489&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.033998+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Light and variable wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the morning. Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 57. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867930", "matchup": "Princeton Tigers at Wagner Seahawks", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401867987", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers: QB Lek Powell/Jared Echols, RB Harry Smalls/Sharode Richardson/Brandon Musch, WR Quay Kindell/Mekhi Campfield/Maxwell Warren, TE Jackson Moseley; South Carolina State Bulldogs: QB Keely Watson/Ronnie Robinson, RB Mason Pickett-Hicks/Josh Shaw/Tyler Smith, WR Malaqhi Jones/Shamontae Burgess/DJ Maultsby, TE Martavious Collins", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.35833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.875, 21.458333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.46666666666667, 18.883333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.6000000000000014, -2.1000000000000014 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 77, "def_drives": 80, "off_points_proxy": 245, "def_points_proxy": 84, "off_plays": 486, "off_yards": 3566, "def_plays": 491, "def_yards": 2370, "early_plays": 356, "early_yards": 2780, "explosive_plays": 51, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867939", "401867982", "401867983", "401867984", "401867985", "401867986" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 3.1818181818181817, "def_ppd": 1.05, "off_ypp": 7.337448559670782, "def_ypp": 4.826883910386965, "early_down_ypp": 7.808988764044944 }, "home": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 63, "off_points_proxy": 98, "def_points_proxy": 83, "off_plays": 384, "off_yards": 1832, "def_plays": 438, "def_yards": 2243, "early_plays": 257, "early_yards": 1236, "explosive_plays": 31, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868169", "401868170", "401868171", "401868172", "401868173" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.6065573770491803, "def_ppd": 1.3174603174603174, "off_ypp": 4.770833333333333, "def_ypp": 5.121004566210046, "early_down_ypp": 4.809338521400778 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2127", "teamName": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868173", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Buccaneer Field", "address": { "city": "Charleston", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29406", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2127", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2127", "displayName": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers" } }, { "id": "2241", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 12.0, "displayValue": "12" }, "team": { "id": "2241", "displayName": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://csusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2569", "teamName": "South Carolina State Bulldogs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867986", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "The Citadel Bulldogs at South Carolina State Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Oliver C. Dawson Stadium", "address": { "city": "Orangeburg", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29115", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2569", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2569", "displayName": "South Carolina State Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2643", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "2643", "displayName": "The Citadel Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://scsuathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Charleston. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.202951+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. High near 81. Southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 4am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Southeast wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867987", "matchup": "South Carolina State Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868221", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Presbyterian Blue Hose: QB Landon Sharpe, RB Damion Moate/Jackson Burleson/Tony O'Banner, WR Caleb Johnson/Anton Smith/Brice Johnson, TE Ethan Medley/Sean McNamara; Davidson Wildcats: QB Casey Bullock/Jim Franklin, RB Brodey Berg, WR Jacary Lightsey/Andrew Frazier/AJ Adams, TE Caden Glenn", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 29.663333333333334, 39.595 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 37.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.333333333333336, 31.85 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.6700000000000004, 5.17 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 75, "def_drives": 73, "off_points_proxy": 132, "def_points_proxy": 211, "off_plays": 555, "off_yards": 3042, "def_plays": 501, "def_yards": 3287, "early_plays": 391, "early_yards": 2061, "explosive_plays": 47, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866626", "401868219", "401868220", "401868397", "401870822", "401896384" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.76, "def_ppd": 2.8904109589041096, "off_ypp": 5.481081081081081, "def_ypp": 6.560878243512974, "early_down_ypp": 5.271099744245524 }, "home": { "off_drives": 64, "def_drives": 63, "off_points_proxy": 128, "def_points_proxy": 215, "off_plays": 451, "off_yards": 2466, "def_plays": 449, "def_yards": 3347, "early_plays": 338, "early_yards": 1662, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868263", "401868273", "401868274", "401868275", "401868276" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.0, "def_ppd": 3.4126984126984126, "off_ypp": 5.467849223946785, "def_ypp": 7.4543429844097995, "early_down_ypp": 4.9171597633136095 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2506", "teamName": "Presbyterian Blue Hose", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868276", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "St. Thomas Tommies at Presbyterian Blue Hose", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Bailey Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clinton", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29325", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2506", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 55.0, "displayValue": "55" }, "team": { "id": "2506", "displayName": "Presbyterian Blue Hose" } }, { "id": "2900", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2900", "displayName": "St. Thomas Tommies" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gobluehose.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2166", "teamName": "Davidson Wildcats", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868220", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Davidson Wildcats at San Diego Toreros", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Torero Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Diego", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "92111", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "301", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 63.0, "displayValue": "63" }, "team": { "id": "301", "displayName": "San Diego Toreros" } }, { "id": "2166", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2166", "displayName": "Davidson Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://davidsonwildcats.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Clinton. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clinton&state=SC&site=GSP&textField1=34.4778&textField2=-81.8661&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.324239+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog after 7am. High near 70. Northeast wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Low around 66. East wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868221", "matchup": "Davidson Wildcats at Presbyterian Blue Hose", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868229", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Dayton Flyers: QB Bryce Schondelmyer, RB Luke Hansen/Mason Hackett/Noah Spencer, WR Michael Mussari/Gavin Lochow/Ethan Thulin, TE Bryce Cowgill/Carson Labensky; Morehead State Eagles: QB David Parsons/Bryce Patterson, RB Jackson Lanier/Blake Fisher/Ezekiel Pour, WR Anthony Ice/Riley Purcell/Cannon Dinger, TE no primary receiver established", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 16.677878787878786, 39.06 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 19.265151515151516, 28.825757575757574 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.575, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.897121212121212, 6.397121212121212 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 72, "def_drives": 67, "off_points_proxy": 121, "def_points_proxy": 197, "off_plays": 419, "off_yards": 2646, "def_plays": 434, "def_yards": 3287, "early_plays": 301, "early_yards": 1943, "explosive_plays": 41, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868061", "401868205", "401868269", "401868270", "401896383" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.6805555555555556, "def_ppd": 2.9402985074626864, "off_ypp": 6.315035799522673, "def_ypp": 7.573732718894009, "early_down_ypp": 6.45514950166113 }, "home": { "off_drives": 50, "def_drives": 52, "off_points_proxy": 103, "def_points_proxy": 73, "off_plays": 331, "off_yards": 1857, "def_plays": 329, "def_yards": 1952, "early_plays": 234, "early_yards": 1287, "explosive_plays": 26, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868142", "401868227", "401868228", "401868792" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.06, "def_ppd": 1.4038461538461537, "off_ypp": 5.610271903323262, "def_ypp": 5.933130699088146, "early_down_ypp": 5.5 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2168", "teamName": "Dayton Flyers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868228", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Dayton Flyers at Drake Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Drake Stadium (IA)", "address": { "city": "Des Moines", "state": "IA", "zipCode": "50311", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2181", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2181", "displayName": "Drake Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2168", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 22.0, "displayValue": "22" }, "team": { "id": "2168", "displayName": "Dayton Flyers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://daytonflyers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2413", "teamName": "Morehead State Eagles", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868270", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Valparaiso Beacons at Morehead State Eagles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Phil Simms Stadium", "address": { "city": "Morehead", "state": "KY", "zipCode": "40351", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2413", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2413", "displayName": "Morehead State Eagles" } }, { "id": "2674", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 37.0, "displayValue": "37" }, "team": { "id": "2674", "displayName": "Valparaiso Beacons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://msueagles.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Dayton. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dayton&state=OH&site=ILN&textField1=39.7791&textField2=-84.1974&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.324239+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Southeast wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5am. Low around 58. East wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868229", "matchup": "Morehead State Eagles at Dayton Flyers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868347", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "The Citadel Bulldogs: QB Quentin Hayes/Nick Billoups, RB Gavin Garcia/Michael Lorino, WR Abijah Webb/Damir Abdullah/Braylon Knauth, TE Whit Hobgood; East Tennessee State Buccaneers: QB Mason Mims/Jadyn Davis, RB TJ Peyton/Jason Albritton/Jaiden Daniels, WR Tyler Griffin/Suderian Harrison, TE Charlie Browder/Khristian Means", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.86833333333333, 24.09 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.666666666666664, 24.666666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.95, 25.15 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.56, -1.06 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 68, "def_drives": 70, "off_points_proxy": 190, "def_points_proxy": 159, "off_plays": 514, "off_yards": 3299, "def_plays": 513, "def_yards": 2851, "early_plays": 372, "early_yards": 2280, "explosive_plays": 55, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858218", "401866620", "401868242", "401868339", "401868345", "401868346" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.7941176470588234, "def_ppd": 2.2714285714285714, "off_ypp": 6.418287937743191, "def_ypp": 5.557504873294347, "early_down_ypp": 6.129032258064516 }, "home": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 60, "off_points_proxy": 117, "def_points_proxy": 149, "off_plays": 414, "off_yards": 2202, "def_plays": 393, "def_yards": 2257, "early_plays": 293, "early_yards": 1332, "explosive_plays": 29, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862694", "401867986", "401868171", "401868338", "401868394" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.9830508474576272, "def_ppd": 2.4833333333333334, "off_ypp": 5.318840579710145, "def_ypp": 5.743002544529262, "early_down_ypp": 4.546075085324232 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2643", "teamName": "The Citadel Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867986", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "The Citadel Bulldogs at South Carolina State Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Oliver C. Dawson Stadium", "address": { "city": "Orangeburg", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29115", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2569", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2569", "displayName": "South Carolina State Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2643", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "2643", "displayName": "The Citadel Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://citadelsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2193", "teamName": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868339", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Chattanooga Mocs at East Tennessee State Buccaneers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "William B. Greene Jr. Stadium", "address": { "city": "Johnson City", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37604", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2193", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2193", "displayName": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers" } }, { "id": "236", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "236", "displayName": "Chattanooga Mocs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://etsubucs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Charleston. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.503806+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. High near 81. Southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 4am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Southeast wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868347", "matchup": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers at The Citadel Bulldogs", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401858482", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Ball State Cardinals: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Northwestern Wildcats: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 13.331666666666667, 37.32666666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 18.375, 26.166666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 17.975, 35.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -5.043333333333333, 6.543333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 100, "def_points_proxy": 186, "off_plays": 408, "off_yards": 2033, "def_plays": 444, "def_yards": 2811, "early_plays": 295, "early_yards": 1354, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858432", "401866413", "401866422", "401866425", "401866431" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.7241379310344827, "def_ppd": 3.206896551724138, "off_ypp": 4.982843137254902, "def_ypp": 6.331081081081081, "early_down_ypp": 4.589830508474576 }, "home": { "off_drives": 46, "def_drives": 46, "off_points_proxy": 135, "def_points_proxy": 67, "off_plays": 324, "off_yards": 2205, "def_plays": 370, "def_yards": 2047, "early_plays": 239, "early_yards": 1667, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856796", "401858431", "401858461", "401858476" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.9347826086956523, "def_ppd": 1.4565217391304348, "off_ypp": 6.805555555555555, "def_ypp": 5.532432432432432, "early_down_ypp": 6.97489539748954 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Increasing clouds, with a high near 77. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. South southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Evanston&state=IL&site=LOT&textField1=42.041&textField2=-87.689&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ball State Cardinals", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Northwestern Wildcats", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858482", "matchup": "Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern Wildcats", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Ball State Cardinals", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Northwestern Wildcats", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ball State Cardinals", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Northwestern Wildcats", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401867992", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Georgetown Hoyas: QB Jack Johnson/Gavin Beard, RB Clay Ash/Jayden Sumpter/Isaac Ramsey, WR Hassan Mahasin/Jayvin Pyle-Thompson/Legend Bernard, TE Isaiah Grimes/Burke Carroll; Bucknell Bison: QB Emmett Dowling/Christopher Dietrich, RB Ty Stauffer/Jack Sullivan/Michael Cadden, WR TJ Cadden/Sam Milligan/Matthew Giannantonio, TE Tom Arth/Jack Bohm-Squicciarini", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.923333333333332, 26.568333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 26.375, 27.583333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.6, 21.65 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.45166666666666694, 1.9516666666666669 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 60, "off_points_proxy": 45, "def_points_proxy": 135, "off_plays": 395, "off_yards": 1499, "def_plays": 415, "def_yards": 2564, "early_plays": 262, "early_yards": 981, "explosive_plays": 18, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858236", "401867988", "401867989", "401867990", "401867991" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 0.75, "def_ppd": 2.25, "off_ypp": 3.7949367088607593, "def_ypp": 6.178313253012048, "early_down_ypp": 3.7442748091603053 }, "home": { "off_drives": 44, "def_drives": 46, "off_points_proxy": 52, "def_points_proxy": 124, "off_plays": 317, "off_yards": 1514, "def_plays": 374, "def_yards": 2605, "early_plays": 211, "early_yards": 1058, "explosive_plays": 23, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867818", "401867828", "401868017", "401868018" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 1.1818181818181819, "def_ppd": 2.6956521739130435, "off_ypp": 4.7760252365930596, "def_ypp": 6.96524064171123, "early_down_ypp": 5.014218009478673 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "46", "teamName": "Georgetown Hoyas", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867828", "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "name": "Cornell Big Red at Georgetown Hoyas", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Cooper Field", "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "zipCode": "20057", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "46", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "46", "displayName": "Georgetown Hoyas" } }, { "id": "172", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "172", "displayName": "Cornell Big Red" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://guhoyas.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2083", "teamName": "Bucknell Bison", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401858236", "date": "2026-09-26T16:00Z", "name": "Bucknell Bison at Pittsburgh Panthers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Acrisure Stadium", "address": { "city": "Pittsburgh", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "15212", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "221", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 59.0, "displayValue": "59" }, "team": { "id": "221", "displayName": "Pittsburgh Panthers" } }, { "id": "2083", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "2083", "displayName": "Bucknell Bison" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.021, "officialScheduleSource": "https://bucknellbison.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Washington. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Washington&state=DC&site=LWX&textField1=38.895&textField2=-77.0373&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.624044+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Tonight Showers likely, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867992", "matchup": "Bucknell Bison at Georgetown Hoyas", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401856714", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "South Carolina Gamecocks: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Second-leading receiver (17 catches/271 yards) is QUESTIONABLE. Preserve available and redistributed-target branches. Philo/Baugh carry no listed restriction in the current conference report.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 31.88, 31.186666666666664 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.333333333333336, 21.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.4, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5199999999999999, 2.02 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 171, "def_points_proxy": 127, "off_plays": 461, "off_yards": 3061, "def_plays": 437, "def_yards": 2218, "early_plays": 327, "early_yards": 2037, "explosive_plays": 41, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856665", "401856680", "401856691", "401856696", "401856709" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.85, "def_ppd": 2.0483870967741935, "off_ypp": 6.639913232104122, "def_ypp": 5.075514874141876, "early_down_ypp": 6.229357798165138 }, "home": { "off_drives": 57, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 217, "def_points_proxy": 133, "off_plays": 418, "off_yards": 2980, "def_plays": 447, "def_yards": 2704, "early_plays": 321, "early_yards": 2080, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856637", "401856672", "401856687", "401856699", "401856708" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.807017543859649, "def_ppd": 2.1451612903225805, "off_ypp": 7.1291866028708135, "def_ypp": 6.049217002237136, "early_down_ypp": 6.479750778816199 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. South wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Gainesville&state=FL&site=JAX&textField1=29.6742&textField2=-82.3363&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Florida Gators", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Vernell Brown III" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856714", "matchup": "South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Florida Gators", "names": [ "Vernell Brown III" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Florida Gators", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Vernell Brown III" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401862797", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Rice Owls: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | East Carolina Pirates: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.251666666666665, 34.160833333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.083333333333332, 32.875 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.625, 25.7 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.3733333333333335, 4.873333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 51, "def_drives": 51, "off_points_proxy": 90, "def_points_proxy": 130, "off_plays": 401, "off_yards": 2172, "def_plays": 410, "def_yards": 2191, "early_plays": 281, "early_yards": 1487, "explosive_plays": 28, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401859184", "401860891", "401862697", "401862773", "401862788" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.7647058823529411, "def_ppd": 2.549019607843137, "off_ypp": 5.41645885286783, "def_ypp": 5.34390243902439, "early_down_ypp": 5.291814946619217 }, "home": { "off_drives": 51, "def_drives": 54, "off_points_proxy": 82, "def_points_proxy": 88, "off_plays": 311, "off_yards": 1723, "def_plays": 372, "def_yards": 1871, "early_plays": 217, "early_yards": 1196, "explosive_plays": 27, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856634", "401862710", "401862781", "401864571" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 1.607843137254902, "def_ppd": 1.6296296296296295, "off_ypp": 5.540192926045016, "def_ypp": 5.029569892473118, "early_down_ypp": 5.511520737327189 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 74. East wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 69. East wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greenville&state=NC&site=MHX&textField1=35.5998&textField2=-77.3744&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Rice Owls", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401862797", "matchup": "Rice Owls at East Carolina Pirates", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Rice Owls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Rice Owls", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401867829", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Cornell Big Red: QB Garrett Bass-Sulpizio, RB Ean Pope/John McAuliffe/Ty Doughty, WR Samuel Musungu/Brendan Lee/Ja'von Broussard, TE Ryder Kurtz; Harvard Crimson: QB Charlie Smith/Kise Flannery, RB Xaviah Bascon/Cole Allen/Jordan Harris, WR Nate Bailey/Henry Shoemaker/Ryan Tattersall, TE Teigan Pelletier/Seamus Gilmartin", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. Current .50 influence cap violation: PASS required.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.307575757575755, 20.230303030303034 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.227272727272727, 21.090909090909093 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.3606060606060604, -0.8606060606060604 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 35, "def_drives": 34, "off_points_proxy": 66, "def_points_proxy": 34, "off_plays": 267, "off_yards": 1315, "def_plays": 241, "def_yards": 1057, "early_plays": 190, "early_yards": 883, "explosive_plays": 13, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866639", "401867806", "401867840" ], "games": 3, "off_ppd": 1.8857142857142857, "def_ppd": 1.0, "off_ypp": 4.925093632958801, "def_ypp": 4.385892116182573, "early_down_ypp": 4.647368421052631 }, "home": { "off_drives": 35, "def_drives": 34, "off_points_proxy": 80, "def_points_proxy": 58, "off_plays": 227, "off_yards": 1309, "def_plays": 286, "def_yards": 1487, "early_plays": 163, "early_yards": 1027, "explosive_plays": 27, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867826", "401867827", "401867828" ], "games": 3, "off_ppd": 2.2857142857142856, "def_ppd": 1.7058823529411764, "off_ypp": 5.766519823788546, "def_ypp": 5.199300699300699, "early_down_ypp": 6.300613496932515 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "172", "teamName": "Cornell Big Red", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867828", "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "name": "Cornell Big Red at Georgetown Hoyas", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Cooper Field", "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "zipCode": "20057", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "46", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "46", "displayName": "Georgetown Hoyas" } }, { "id": "172", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "172", "displayName": "Cornell Big Red" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.021, "officialScheduleSource": "https://cornellbigred.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "108", "teamName": "Harvard Crimson", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867840", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Colgate Raiders at Harvard Crimson", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Harvard Stadium", "address": { "city": "Cambridge", "state": "MA", "zipCode": "02134", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "108", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "108", "displayName": "Harvard Crimson" } }, { "id": "2142", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 17.0, "displayValue": "17" }, "team": { "id": "2142", "displayName": "Colgate Raiders" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gocrimson.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Ithaca. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ithaca&state=NY&site=BGM&textField1=42.4422&textField2=-76.5002&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.624044+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867829", "matchup": "Harvard Crimson at Cornell Big Red", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401867860", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Indiana State Sycamores: QB Brady Allen/Brock Riddle, RB Aaron Ball/Manny Ellis/Max McCool, WR Jayden Reed/Keshon Singleton/Dane Pardridge, TE Jaylan Johnson; Youngstown State Penguins: QB Beau Brungard, RB Jaden Gilbert/Antuan Gardner/Tahir Mills, WR Jeremiah Sanders/Lorenzo Jenkins/Bryan Hunt, TE Austin Bray/Alex McDonald", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.246794871794876 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 38.09935897435898, 26.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 35.41666666666667, 25.75 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.336538461538462, -2.8365384615384617 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 64, "off_points_proxy": 222, "def_points_proxy": 140, "off_plays": 477, "off_yards": 2973, "def_plays": 476, "def_yards": 2849, "early_plays": 363, "early_yards": 2349, "explosive_plays": 42, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856659", "401867885", "401867891", "401867894", "401867895", "401867896" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 3.5806451612903225, "def_ppd": 2.1875, "off_ypp": 6.232704402515723, "def_ypp": 5.985294117647059, "early_down_ypp": 6.471074380165289 }, "home": { "off_drives": 77, "def_drives": 76, "off_points_proxy": 169, "def_points_proxy": 201, "off_plays": 492, "off_yards": 3043, "def_plays": 557, "def_yards": 3142, "early_plays": 351, "early_yards": 1944, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858435", "401867855", "401867856", "401867857", "401867858", "401867859" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.1948051948051948, "def_ppd": 2.6447368421052633, "off_ypp": 6.184959349593496, "def_ypp": 5.640933572710951, "early_down_ypp": 5.538461538461538 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "282", "teamName": "Indiana State Sycamores", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867859", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Indiana State Sycamores at South Dakota Coyotes", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "The DakotaDome", "address": { "city": "Vermillion", "state": "SD", "zipCode": "57069", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "233", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "233", "displayName": "South Dakota Coyotes" } }, { "id": "282", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "282", "displayName": "Indiana State Sycamores" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gosycamores.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2754", "teamName": "Youngstown State Penguins", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867891", "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "name": "Youngstown State Penguins at Southern Illinois Salukis", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Saluki Stadium", "address": { "city": "Carbondale", "state": "IL", "zipCode": "62901", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "79", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "79", "displayName": "Southern Illinois Salukis" } }, { "id": "2754", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2754", "displayName": "Youngstown State Penguins" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ysusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Terre Haute. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Terre+Haute&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=39.4704&textField2=-87.3835&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.738836+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Tonight A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind 6 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867860", "matchup": "Youngstown State Penguins at Indiana State Sycamores", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401867907", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils: QB Brett Griffis/Conner Kenyon, RB Davon Smith Jr./John Manning IV/Kendal Donovan, WR Damani Williams/Michael Trovarelli/Donovan Wadley, TE Ryan Turley; American International Yellow Jackets: QB Daron Bryden/Lukas Kasko, RB Bo Catherwood/Judah Varfley, WR Hardley Gilmore/Christopher Washington/Jovanny Brown, TE Jayden Vega/Xavier Hullum", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 23.46807692307692, 34.2925 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 19.46153846153846, 26.146153846153847 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.675, 25.025 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -7.206923076923077, 8.706923076923077 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 0, "def_drives": 0, "off_points_proxy": 0, "def_points_proxy": 0, "off_plays": 0, "off_yards": 0, "def_plays": 0, "def_yards": 0, "early_plays": 0, "early_yards": 0, "explosive_plays": 0, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401907454", "401907475", "401907476", "401907477", "401907478" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": null, "def_ppd": null, "off_ypp": null, "def_ypp": null, "early_down_ypp": null }, "home": { "off_drives": 49, "def_drives": 49, "off_points_proxy": 85, "def_points_proxy": 164, "off_plays": 340, "off_yards": 1879, "def_plays": 318, "def_yards": 2383, "early_plays": 243, "early_yards": 1419, "explosive_plays": 27, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866419", "401867882", "401867898", "401867899" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 1.7346938775510203, "def_ppd": 3.3469387755102042, "off_ypp": 5.526470588235294, "def_ypp": 7.4937106918239, "early_down_ypp": 5.839506172839506 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2115", "teamName": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867899", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Wagner Seahawks at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Arute Field", "address": { "city": "New Britain", "state": "CT", "zipCode": "06053", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2115", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 45.0, "displayValue": "45" }, "team": { "id": "2115", "displayName": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils" } }, { "id": "2681", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2681", "displayName": "Wagner Seahawks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ccsubluedevils.com/sports/fball/2026-27/schedule", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue", "scheduleExplanation": "Official current schedule says Today, with matching opponent and kickoff; retained at current Eastern date." }, { "teamId": "2022", "teamName": "American International Yellow Jackets", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401907478", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at American International Yellow Jackets", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Ronald J. Abdow Field", "address": { "city": "Springfield", "state": "MA", "zipCode": "01109", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2022", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2022", "displayName": "American International Yellow Jackets" } }, { "id": "112334", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "112334", "displayName": "Franklin Pierce Ravens" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://aicyellowjackets.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to New Britain. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+Britain&state=CT&site=BOX&textField1=41.6751&textField2=-72.7878&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.878695+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Light north wind. Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 45. Calm wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867907", "matchup": "American International Yellow Jackets at Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "risks": [ { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401867911", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Duquesne Dukes: QB Carson Camp/Logan Kushner, RB Ness Davis/Cam Oliver/Shawn Solomon Jr, WR Ryan Petras/Trey Graham/Myles Walker, TE Noah Canty/Garrett Harrold; Long Island University Sharks: QB Luca Stanzani/Mekhi Moore, RB Sam Slade/Jesiah Mcknight/Chris Howell, WR Evan Brooks/Josiah Brown/Jayden Simpson, TE Gianni Marino/Tristin McFarland", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.81666666666667, 26.225 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 23.625 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.166666666666668, 25.125 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.34999999999999964, 1.8499999999999996 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 63, "def_drives": 64, "off_points_proxy": 80, "def_points_proxy": 193, "off_plays": 469, "off_yards": 2135, "def_plays": 472, "def_yards": 3152, "early_plays": 320, "early_yards": 1065, "explosive_plays": 27, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856769", "401866632", "401867874", "401867908", "401867909", "401867910" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.2698412698412698, "def_ppd": 3.015625, "off_ypp": 4.552238805970149, "def_ypp": 6.677966101694915, "early_down_ypp": 3.328125 }, "home": { "off_drives": 46, "def_drives": 44, "off_points_proxy": 72, "def_points_proxy": 141, "off_plays": 309, "off_yards": 1473, "def_plays": 328, "def_yards": 1972, "early_plays": 215, "early_yards": 985, "explosive_plays": 20, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401860890", "401864496", "401867895", "401870839" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 1.565217391304348, "def_ppd": 3.2045454545454546, "off_ypp": 4.766990291262136, "def_ypp": 6.012195121951219, "early_down_ypp": 4.5813953488372094 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2184", "teamName": "Duquesne Dukes", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401870839", "date": "2026-09-26T16:00Z", "name": "Rio Grande Red Storm at Duquesne Dukes", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Arthur J. Rooney Athletic Field", "address": { "city": "Pittsburgh", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "15282", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2184", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 53.0, "displayValue": "53" }, "team": { "id": "2184", "displayName": "Duquesne Dukes" } }, { "id": "131239", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "131239", "displayName": "Rio Grande Red Storm" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goduquesne.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2341", "teamName": "Long Island University Sharks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867910", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Mercyhurst Lakers at Long Island University Sharks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Shark Stadium", "address": { "city": "Brookville", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2341", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "2341", "displayName": "Long Island University Sharks" } }, { "id": "2385", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2385", "displayName": "Mercyhurst Lakers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://liuathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Pittsburgh. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Pittsburgh&state=PA&site=PBZ&textField1=40.4392&textField2=-79.9767&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.909683+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Light east wind becoming southeast 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Tonight Showers, mainly after 2am. Low around 57. East wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867911", "matchup": "Long Island University Sharks at Duquesne Dukes", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401867954", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Delaware State Hornets: QB Ui Ale/Noah Brannock, RB Jayden Jenkins/Sean Weston Jr./Kobe Boykin, WR Jaylin Terzado/Bronseman Davis Jr./Nathan Stewart, TE Jaron Kelley/Daniel Smith; Franklin Pierce Ravens: QB Kevin Leal/Shawn Brown, RB Anthony Johnson/Jaden Griffin, WR Joseph Mugovero/Tristan Evans/Raj Hillhouse, TE Connor Marchi", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 27.378333333333334, 31.313333333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.275, 24.675 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.75, 24.208333333333336 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -5.371666666666667, 6.871666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 9, "def_drives": 9, "off_points_proxy": 20, "def_points_proxy": 28, "off_plays": 84, "off_yards": 478, "def_plays": 71, "def_yards": 418, "early_plays": 58, "early_yards": 205, "explosive_plays": 9, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868262", "401907478", "401907506", "401907511" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.2222222222222223, "def_ppd": 3.111111111111111, "off_ypp": 5.690476190476191, "def_ypp": 5.887323943661972, "early_down_ypp": 3.5344827586206895 }, "home": { "off_drives": 72, "def_drives": 71, "off_points_proxy": 130, "def_points_proxy": 180, "off_plays": 513, "off_yards": 3145, "def_plays": 477, "def_yards": 2765, "early_plays": 369, "early_yards": 2250, "explosive_plays": 42, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862777", "401866615", "401866649", "401866655", "401867692", "401867953" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.8055555555555556, "def_ppd": 2.535211267605634, "off_ypp": 6.1306042884990255, "def_ypp": 5.79664570230608, "early_down_ypp": 6.097560975609756 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2169", "teamName": "Delaware State Hornets", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866655", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Delaware State Hornets at UAlbany Great Danes", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey Stadium", "address": { "city": "Albany", "state": "NY", "zipCode": "12222", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "399", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "399", "displayName": "UAlbany Great Danes" } }, { "id": "2169", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2169", "displayName": "Delaware State Hornets" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://dsuhornets.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "112334", "teamName": "Franklin Pierce Ravens", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401907478", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at American International Yellow Jackets", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Ronald J. Abdow Field", "address": { "city": "Springfield", "state": "MA", "zipCode": "01109", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2022", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 24.0, "displayValue": "24" }, "team": { "id": "2022", "displayName": "American International Yellow Jackets" } }, { "id": "112334", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "112334", "displayName": "Franklin Pierce Ravens" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://fpuravens.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Dover. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dover&state=DE&site=PHI&textField1=39.1587&textField2=-75.5174&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.909683+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Tonight A chance of rain after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867954", "matchup": "Franklin Pierce Ravens at Delaware State Hornets", "risks": [ { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401867960", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Pennsylvania Quakers: QB Miles Teodecki, RB Donte West/Tommy Lafayette/Sean Williams Jr, WR Mason Page/Isaac Lee/Simon Cofrancesco, TE Dante Barone/Jack Donnelly; Howard Bison: QB Ja'Shawn Scroggins/Isaiah Freeman, RB Eden James/Travis Kerney/Billy Roberson II, WR Semaj Pierre/Zaden Jackson/Se'Quan Osborne, TE Nathanial Clark", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. Current .50 influence cap violation: PASS required.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 20.924999999999997, 28.645833333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.166666666666664, 25.84166666666667 ], "currentMatchup": [ 15.433333333333334, 23.96666666666667 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -2.241666666666667, 3.741666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 60, "off_points_proxy": 78, "def_points_proxy": 172, "off_plays": 413, "off_yards": 1842, "def_plays": 399, "def_yards": 2716, "early_plays": 276, "early_yards": 1264, "explosive_plays": 27, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858439", "401858468", "401866656", "401867935", "401869127" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.278688524590164, "def_ppd": 2.8666666666666667, "off_ypp": 4.460048426150121, "def_ypp": 6.807017543859649, "early_down_ypp": 4.579710144927536 }, "home": { "off_drives": 35, "def_drives": 34, "off_points_proxy": 38, "def_points_proxy": 34, "off_plays": 276, "off_yards": 1221, "def_plays": 216, "def_yards": 978, "early_plays": 184, "early_yards": 820, "explosive_plays": 12, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867835", "401867991", "401868034" ], "games": 3, "off_ppd": 1.0857142857142856, "def_ppd": 1.0, "off_ypp": 4.423913043478261, "def_ypp": 4.527777777777778, "early_down_ypp": 4.456521739130435 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "219", "teamName": "Pennsylvania Quakers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867835", "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "name": "Pennsylvania Quakers at Dartmouth Big Green", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Memorial Field (Dartmouth)", "address": { "city": "Hanover", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03755", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "159", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "159", "displayName": "Dartmouth Big Green" } }, { "id": "219", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "219", "displayName": "Pennsylvania Quakers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.979, "officialScheduleSource": "https://pennathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "47", "teamName": "Howard Bison", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866656", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Howard Bison at Hampton Pirates", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Audi Field", "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "zipCode": "20024", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2261", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 13.0, "displayValue": "13" }, "team": { "id": "2261", "displayName": "Hampton Pirates" } }, { "id": "47", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "47", "displayName": "Howard Bison" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://hubison.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Philadelphia. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Philadelphia&state=PA&site=PHI&textField1=39.9525&textField2=-75.1657&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.979151+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 5 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867960", "matchup": "Howard Bison at Pennsylvania Quakers", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401867980", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "North Carolina Central Eagles: QB Nelson Layne/Cobey Thompkins, RB Zion Dobson/Plez Lawrence/Gino Addison, WR Chance Peterson/Mehki Wall/RJ Lancaster, TE Luke Bracey; William & Mary Tribe: QB Winston Watkins/Carter Carroll, RB Josh Miller/Andrew King/Brayden Smalls, WR Khylil Johnson/Kai Austin/Luke Vanantwerp, TE Sean McElwain/Jackson Blee", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.925000000000004, 34.3875 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.583333333333336, 29.708333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.583333333333336, 32.75 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.6583333333333332, 3.158333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 77, "def_drives": 76, "off_points_proxy": 131, "def_points_proxy": 242, "off_plays": 497, "off_yards": 2844, "def_plays": 506, "def_yards": 3545, "early_plays": 341, "early_yards": 1708, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858244", "401867692", "401868009", "401868025", "401868033", "401868040" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.7012987012987013, "def_ppd": 3.1842105263157894, "off_ypp": 5.722334004024145, "def_ypp": 7.0059288537549405, "early_down_ypp": 5.008797653958944 }, "home": { "off_drives": 80, "def_drives": 74, "off_points_proxy": 149, "def_points_proxy": 173, "off_plays": 479, "off_yards": 2741, "def_plays": 489, "def_yards": 3275, "early_plays": 346, "early_yards": 1839, "explosive_plays": 49, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862781", "401866633", "401866657", "401867977", "401867978", "401867979" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.8625, "def_ppd": 2.3378378378378377, "off_ypp": 5.722338204592902, "def_ypp": 6.697341513292433, "early_down_ypp": 5.315028901734104 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2428", "teamName": "North Carolina Central Eagles", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866657", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Campbell Fighting Camels at North Carolina Central Eagles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium", "address": { "city": "Durham", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "27707", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2428", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2428", "displayName": "North Carolina Central Eagles" } }, { "id": "2097", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "2097", "displayName": "Campbell Fighting Camels" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.792, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nccueaglepride.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2729", "teamName": "William & Mary Tribe", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868025", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Holy Cross Crusaders at William & Mary Tribe", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Walter J. Zable Stadium", "address": { "city": "Williamsburg", "state": "VA", "zipCode": "23186", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2729", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2729", "displayName": "William & Mary Tribe" } }, { "id": "107", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "107", "displayName": "Holy Cross Crusaders" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tribeathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Durham. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Durham&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=35.9804&textField2=-78.915&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.329034+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 61. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Saturday Rain likely, mainly between 1pm and 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 68. East wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Low around 64. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867980", "matchup": "William & Mary Tribe at North Carolina Central Eagles", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868212", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Butler Bulldogs: QB Gabe Passini, RB Desmin Jackson/Michael Dellumo/Sam Manna, WR Nick Munson/Michael Nix/Blake Matthews, TE Drew Sullivan/Landon Hochstein; San Diego Toreros: QB Dom Nankil/CJ Ceron, RB Adam Criter/Omar Mbakwe/Zamar Reese, WR Cole Monach/Christopher Hall/Yosei Takahashi, TE Carter Pruitt", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.738333333333333, 34.45333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 26.875, 23.583333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.4, 39.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.6616666666666668, 3.161666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 67, "def_drives": 64, "off_points_proxy": 145, "def_points_proxy": 192, "off_plays": 478, "off_yards": 2847, "def_plays": 389, "def_yards": 2940, "early_plays": 342, "early_yards": 2132, "explosive_plays": 43, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868075", "401868102", "401868163", "401868220", "401868281" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.1641791044776117, "def_ppd": 3.0, "off_ypp": 5.956066945606694, "def_ypp": 7.557840616966581, "early_down_ypp": 6.233918128654971 }, "home": { "off_drives": 49, "def_drives": 47, "off_points_proxy": 162, "def_points_proxy": 96, "off_plays": 341, "off_yards": 2179, "def_plays": 294, "def_yards": 1781, "early_plays": 241, "early_yards": 1490, "explosive_plays": 30, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867686", "401868119", "401868209", "401868210", "401868211" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.306122448979592, "def_ppd": 2.0425531914893615, "off_ypp": 6.390029325513196, "def_ypp": 6.057823129251701, "early_down_ypp": 6.182572614107884 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2086", "teamName": "Butler Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868211", "date": "2026-09-26T18:00Z", "name": "Butler Bulldogs at Valparaiso Beacons", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Brown Field", "address": { "city": "Valparaiso", "state": "IN", "zipCode": "46383", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2674", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2674", "displayName": "Valparaiso Beacons" } }, { "id": "2086", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "2086", "displayName": "Butler Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 13.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://butlersports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "301", "teamName": "San Diego Toreros", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868220", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Davidson Wildcats at San Diego Toreros", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Torero Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Diego", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "92111", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "301", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 63.0, "displayValue": "63" }, "team": { "id": "301", "displayName": "San Diego Toreros" } }, { "id": "2166", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2166", "displayName": "Davidson Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://usdtoreros.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Indianapolis. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Indianapolis&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=39.7764&textField2=-86.1462&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.497726+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Southeast wind 5 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Tonight Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. East wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868212", "matchup": "San Diego Toreros at Butler Bulldogs", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868300", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs: QB Cornelious Brown IV/Mac Armstrong, RB Byron Perrilliat/Maurice Edwards IV/Kolton Nero, WR Imari Conley/Jaylan Bean/Devin Herring, TE Donovan Price/Jaxson Davis; Bethune-Cookman Wildcats: QB Tyler Jefferson/Joel Morris, RB Rashon Brown/Isaiah Daniel/Deanwar Johnson, WR Josh Evans/Willie Anderson/Rickie Shaw II, TE Micheal Walker", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.951666666666664, 31.4025 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.541666666666664, 28.041666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.133333333333333, 30.583333333333332 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5899999999999995, 2.0899999999999994 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 64, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 145, "def_points_proxy": 127, "off_plays": 419, "off_yards": 2513, "def_plays": 377, "def_yards": 2588, "early_plays": 303, "early_yards": 1864, "explosive_plays": 35, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856767", "401867985", "401868285", "401868328", "401868942" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.265625, "def_ppd": 2.081967213114754, "off_ypp": 5.997613365155131, "def_ypp": 6.864721485411141, "early_down_ypp": 6.151815181518152 }, "home": { "off_drives": 72, "def_drives": 76, "off_points_proxy": 198, "def_points_proxy": 109, "off_plays": 477, "off_yards": 3573, "def_plays": 539, "def_yards": 2740, "early_plays": 363, "early_yards": 2612, "explosive_plays": 48, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867935", "401868195", "401868295", "401868297", "401868298", "401868299" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.75, "def_ppd": 1.4342105263157894, "off_ypp": 7.490566037735849, "def_ypp": 5.083487940630798, "early_down_ypp": 7.195592286501378 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2010", "teamName": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868295", "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "name": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs at Jackson State Tigers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Ladd-Peebles Stadium", "address": { "city": "Mobile", "state": "AL", "zipCode": "36604", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2296", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2296", "displayName": "Jackson State Tigers" } }, { "id": "2010", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2010", "displayName": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://aamusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2065", "teamName": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868328", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Alabama State Hornets at Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Daytona Stadium", "address": { "city": "Daytona Beach", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32124", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2065", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "2065", "displayName": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2011", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2011", "displayName": "Alabama State Hornets" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://bcuathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Huntsville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntsville&state=AL&site=HUN&textField1=34.707&textField2=-86.6277&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.509906+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 61. East wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 72. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Saturday Night Showers likely, mainly before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868300", "matchup": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Alabama A&M Bulldogs", "risks": [ { "type": "severe_playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Official NWS city forecast shows heavy rain/thunderstorms and40\u201345mph gusts. Effect unestimated; ordinary3point adverse case does not establish robust bounds. Need game-window conditions recheck before promotion.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntsville&state=AL&site=HUN&textField1=34.707&textField2=-86.6277&e=1" } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868340", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Chattanooga Mocs: QB Battle Alberson, RB Kevin Lalin/Harrison Bey-Buie, WR Ashton Schumann/Erik Bussmann/Davon Kiser, TE Landon Strickland; Samford Bulldogs: QB Gabarri Johnson/Coulter Cleland, RB Domonique Thomas/Emerson Russell/Ken Cherry, WR Marquise Henderson/Cayden Aukerman/Kevonte Corbin, TE Cannon Pigg/Maddox McKim", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 20.873333333333335, 32.45166666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.791666666666668, 33.08333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 17.683333333333334, 22.983333333333334 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -2.918333333333333, 4.418333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 57, "off_points_proxy": 102, "def_points_proxy": 113, "off_plays": 423, "off_yards": 2264, "def_plays": 421, "def_yards": 2551, "early_plays": 300, "early_yards": 1458, "explosive_plays": 28, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862793", "401867889", "401868149", "401868386", "401868387" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.7, "def_ppd": 1.9824561403508771, "off_ypp": 5.3522458628841605, "def_ypp": 6.059382422802851, "early_down_ypp": 4.86 }, "home": { "off_drives": 68, "def_drives": 69, "off_points_proxy": 108, "def_points_proxy": 86, "off_plays": 438, "off_yards": 2264, "def_plays": 469, "def_yards": 2222, "early_plays": 301, "early_yards": 1575, "explosive_plays": 37, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868141", "401868240", "401868336", "401868337", "401868338", "401868339" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.588235294117647, "def_ppd": 1.2463768115942029, "off_ypp": 5.168949771689498, "def_ypp": 4.73773987206823, "early_down_ypp": 5.232558139534884 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "236", "teamName": "Chattanooga Mocs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868339", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Chattanooga Mocs at East Tennessee State Buccaneers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "William B. Greene Jr. Stadium", "address": { "city": "Johnson City", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37604", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2193", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2193", "displayName": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers" } }, { "id": "236", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "236", "displayName": "Chattanooga Mocs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gomocs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2535", "teamName": "Samford Bulldogs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401862793", "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "name": "Samford Bulldogs at UAB Blazers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Protective Stadium", "address": { "city": "Birmingham", "state": "AL", "zipCode": "35203", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "5", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "5", "displayName": "UAB Blazers" } }, { "id": "2535", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2535", "displayName": "Samford Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://samfordsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Chattanooga. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Chattanooga&state=TN&site=MRX&textField1=35.0662&textField2=-85.257&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.498730+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 73. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 5am, then showers likely. Low around 62. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868340", "matchup": "Samford Bulldogs at Chattanooga Mocs", "risks": [ { "type": "severe_playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Official NWS city forecast shows heavy rain/thunderstorms and40\u201345mph gusts. Effect unestimated; ordinary3point adverse case does not establish robust bounds. Need game-window conditions recheck before promotion.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Chattanooga&state=TN&site=MRX&textField1=35.0662&textField2=-85.257&e=0" } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401869843", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Harrell third receiving yards (9/126) OUT; leading WR TJ Johnson 12/163 QUESTIONABLE. Separate receiver opportunities allow isolated -3 scenarios and joint -6 human sensitivity, with -3 overlap sensitivity. Henicle PROBABLE is not presumed replaced. | App State Mountaineers: current report contains 3 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.531666666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.25, 22.291666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.025, 33.575 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.7183333333333334, 2.2183333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 66, "def_drives": 65, "off_points_proxy": 84, "def_points_proxy": 149, "off_plays": 398, "off_yards": 1994, "def_plays": 444, "def_yards": 2454, "early_plays": 280, "early_yards": 1143, "explosive_plays": 30, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858221", "401862710", "401867973", "401869956", "401869961" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.2727272727272727, "def_ppd": 2.292307692307692, "off_ypp": 5.010050251256281, "def_ypp": 5.527027027027027, "early_down_ypp": 4.082142857142857 }, "home": { "off_drives": 49, "def_drives": 47, "off_points_proxy": 140, "def_points_proxy": 82, "off_plays": 372, "off_yards": 2279, "def_plays": 355, "def_yards": 1602, "early_plays": 265, "early_yards": 1637, "explosive_plays": 35, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401864571", "401864572", "401864574", "401866627" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.857142857142857, "def_ppd": 1.7446808510638299, "off_ypp": 6.126344086021505, "def_ypp": 4.512676056338028, "early_down_ypp": 6.1773584905660375 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Showers, mainly after 7am. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 57. East wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 52. East wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 3 and 4 inches possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Boone&state=NC&site=RNK&textField1=36.2095&textField2=-81.6699&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: TJ Johnson" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401869843", "matchup": "Old Dominion Monarchs at App State Mountaineers", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "names": [ "TJ Johnson" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "names": [ "JJ Harrell" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: TJ Johnson" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401892469", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Boston Bruins: Charlie McAvoy Suspension | Philadelphia Flyers: Rasmus Ristolainen Day-To-Day, Nikita Grebenkin Injured Reserve, Helge Grans Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892469", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.954528+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892469", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.954528+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2; home: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Boston Bruins; Primary: Boston Bruins; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Boston Bruins; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Boston Bruins. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 0.121955 to 0.593171. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.2434497875801753 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892469", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.2434497875801753e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 2.699024390243903, 3.2921951219512198 ], "Primary": [ 2.7235433213689766, 3.128996246021643 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 01:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020070, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T17:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/PHI/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Philadelphia Flyers", "previousEventId": "401891820", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Ottawa Senators", "previousVenue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to TD Garden; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Boston Bruins", "previousEventId": "401892457", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Utah Mammoth", "previousVenue": { "id": "1824", "fullName": "TD Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Boston", "state": "MA", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to TD Garden; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at TD Garden; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "761845", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 7 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T17:00:00Z matches sporting slate. BMO Field" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Oct10 5amEDT official forecast: afternoon17C, sun/cloud; east20km/h gusting40. Clear tonight12C with same wind. No numeric weather coefficient." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401866440", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Miami (OH) RedHawks: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Massachusetts Minutemen: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.482756410256407, 30.582307692307694 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.830128205128204, 16.541666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 22.3, 30.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.4176923076923078, 0.08230769230769219 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 52, "def_drives": 55, "off_points_proxy": 126, "def_points_proxy": 153, "off_plays": 378, "off_yards": 2502, "def_plays": 388, "def_yards": 2624, "early_plays": 274, "early_yards": 1659, "explosive_plays": 41, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856797", "401858207", "401861970", "401866417", "401866477" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.423076923076923, "def_ppd": 2.7818181818181817, "off_ypp": 6.619047619047619, "def_ypp": 6.762886597938144, "early_down_ypp": 6.054744525547445 }, "home": { "off_drives": 52, "def_drives": 56, "off_points_proxy": 140, "def_points_proxy": 89, "off_plays": 342, "off_yards": 2286, "def_plays": 425, "def_yards": 1996, "early_plays": 251, "early_yards": 1591, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858423", "401866420", "401866424", "401866429", "401866433" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.6923076923076925, "def_ppd": 1.5892857142857142, "off_ypp": 6.684210526315789, "def_ypp": 4.696470588235294, "early_down_ypp": 6.338645418326693 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Light and variable wind. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. Calm wind. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Amherst&state=MA&site=BOX&textField1=42.3751&textField2=-72.52&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866440", "matchup": "Miami (OH) RedHawks at Massachusetts Minutemen", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401866661", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Elon Phoenix: QB Elijah Guttman/TJ Crews IV, RB Kamerin McDowell-Moore/Dan Frederick/Xavier Spadacini, WR Kenaz McMillian/Jaedon Alford/Jamarien Dalton, TE Dylan Magazu/Brendan Hester; Wofford Terriers: QB Ethan Drumm/J.T. Fayard, RB Gerald Modest Jr./Davis Penn, WR Isaiah Scott/Colby Alexander/Ivory Aikens, TE Jaden Fowler/Jack Ewell", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 22.383333333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.791666666666664, 23.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.416666666666668, 29.25 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.4083333333333332, 2.908333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 72, "def_drives": 66, "off_points_proxy": 134, "def_points_proxy": 157, "off_plays": 438, "off_yards": 2397, "def_plays": 530, "def_yards": 3568, "early_plays": 305, "early_yards": 1821, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866416", "401868186", "401868337", "401868375", "401868390", "401868394" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.8611111111111112, "def_ppd": 2.378787878787879, "off_ypp": 5.472602739726027, "def_ypp": 6.7320754716981135, "early_down_ypp": 5.970491803278689 }, "home": { "off_drives": 82, "def_drives": 79, "off_points_proxy": 178, "def_points_proxy": 99, "off_plays": 498, "off_yards": 3016, "def_plays": 519, "def_yards": 2413, "early_plays": 362, "early_yards": 2124, "explosive_plays": 54, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866614", "401866626", "401866628", "401866637", "401866643", "401866650" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.1707317073170733, "def_ppd": 1.2531645569620253, "off_ypp": 6.056224899598393, "def_ypp": 4.649325626204239, "early_down_ypp": 5.867403314917127 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2210", "teamName": "Elon Phoenix", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866650", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Elon Phoenix at New Hampshire Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Wildcat Stadium (NH)", "address": { "city": "Durham", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03824", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "160", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "160", "displayName": "New Hampshire Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2210", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 23.0, "displayValue": "23" }, "team": { "id": "2210", "displayName": "Elon Phoenix" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://elonphoenix.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2747", "teamName": "Wofford Terriers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868375", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Wofford Terriers at Furman Paladins", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Paladin Stadium", "address": { "city": "Greenville", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29617", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "231", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 25.0, "displayValue": "25" }, "team": { "id": "231", "displayName": "Furman Paladins" } }, { "id": "2747", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 32.0, "displayValue": "32" }, "team": { "id": "2747", "displayName": "Wofford Terriers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Elon. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Elon&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0941&textField2=-79.5117&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.511680+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Rain likely, mainly between 11am and 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 65. Northeast wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tonight Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Low around 62. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866661", "matchup": "Wofford Terriers at Elon Phoenix", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401867886", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "South Dakota Coyotes: QB Austyn Modrzewski/Jackson Proctor, RB Charles Pierre Jr./Carson Fletcher/Reid Watkins, WR Tysen Boze/Tennel Bryant, TE Chris Herrin/Jesse Miller; Southern Illinois Salukis: QB DJ Williams/Jake Curry, RB Chandler Chapman/Edward Robinson/Quade Chatmon, WR Kyle Thomas/Markell Quick/Allen Middleton, TE Karsen Konkel", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.066666666666666, 31.6 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 30.458333333333332, 27.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.0, 32.333333333333336 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.39166666666666716, 1.891666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 74, "def_drives": 75, "off_points_proxy": 153, "def_points_proxy": 143, "off_plays": 545, "off_yards": 3305, "def_plays": 475, "def_yards": 2816, "early_plays": 383, "early_yards": 1920, "explosive_plays": 52, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858448", "401867868", "401867889", "401867890", "401867891", "401874035" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.0675675675675675, "def_ppd": 1.9066666666666667, "off_ypp": 6.064220183486238, "def_ypp": 5.928421052631579, "early_down_ypp": 5.013054830287206 }, "home": { "off_drives": 73, "def_drives": 74, "off_points_proxy": 235, "def_points_proxy": 168, "off_plays": 469, "off_yards": 3085, "def_plays": 528, "def_yards": 3026, "early_plays": 354, "early_yards": 2376, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401860885", "401867859", "401867882", "401867883", "401867884", "401867885" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 3.219178082191781, "def_ppd": 2.27027027027027, "off_ypp": 6.577825159914712, "def_ypp": 5.731060606060606, "early_down_ypp": 6.711864406779661 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "233", "teamName": "South Dakota Coyotes", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867859", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Indiana State Sycamores at South Dakota Coyotes", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "The DakotaDome", "address": { "city": "Vermillion", "state": "SD", "zipCode": "57069", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "233", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "233", "displayName": "South Dakota Coyotes" } }, { "id": "282", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "282", "displayName": "Indiana State Sycamores" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goyotes.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "79", "teamName": "Southern Illinois Salukis", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867891", "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "name": "Youngstown State Penguins at Southern Illinois Salukis", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Saluki Stadium", "address": { "city": "Carbondale", "state": "IL", "zipCode": "62901", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "79", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "79", "displayName": "Southern Illinois Salukis" } }, { "id": "2754", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2754", "displayName": "Youngstown State Penguins" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://siusalukis.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Vermillion. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Vermillion%2C%20SD", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.511680+00:00", "status": "indoor", "currentForecast": "Enclosed venue; field weather effect not applied. Travel conditions unestimated.", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867886", "matchup": "Southern Illinois Salukis at South Dakota Coyotes", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401867974", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Norfolk State Spartans: QB Da'Jean Golmond/Evan Helfrich, RB Jalyn Daniels/Ravon Moore/Kiron Benjamin, WR Elyjah Mitchell/Brevin Caldwell/Paul Billups II, TE Rocco Ciocca; Virginia Lynchburg Dragons: QB Max Zavala, RB Israel Rhodes, WR Omarion Hairston/Dustin Placide, TE no primary receiver established", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 9.383333333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.729166666666668, 35.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 14.916666666666666, 40.291666666666664 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -14.345833333333333, 15.845833333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 25, "def_drives": 24, "off_points_proxy": 3, "def_points_proxy": 105, "off_plays": 178, "off_yards": 816, "def_plays": 162, "def_yards": 1274, "early_plays": 123, "early_yards": 356, "explosive_plays": 10, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866613", "401867966", "401868942", "401909014" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 0.12, "def_ppd": 4.375, "off_ypp": 4.584269662921348, "def_ypp": 7.864197530864198, "early_down_ypp": 2.894308943089431 }, "home": { "off_drives": 72, "def_drives": 72, "off_points_proxy": 171, "def_points_proxy": 146, "off_plays": 533, "off_yards": 3405, "def_plays": 451, "def_yards": 2797, "early_plays": 377, "early_yards": 2283, "explosive_plays": 44, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858220", "401866641", "401867687", "401867918", "401867972", "401867973" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.375, "def_ppd": 2.0277777777777777, "off_ypp": 6.3883677298311445, "def_ypp": 6.201773835920178, "early_down_ypp": 6.0557029177718835 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2450", "teamName": "Norfolk State Spartans", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867918", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Norfolk State Spartans at Robert Morris Colonials", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Joe Walton Stadium", "address": { "city": "Moon Township", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "15108", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2523", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "2523", "displayName": "Robert Morris Colonials" } }, { "id": "2450", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2450", "displayName": "Norfolk State Spartans" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nsuspartans.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2355", "teamName": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868942", "date": "2026-09-19T20:00Z", "name": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-19T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Daytona Stadium", "address": { "city": "Daytona Beach", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32124", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2065", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 62.0, "displayValue": "62" }, "team": { "id": "2065", "displayName": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2355", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2355", "displayName": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": null, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Norfolk. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated.", "scheduleExplanation": "Own official site failed; official Norfolk Oct8 opponent preview confirms Oct10.", "restCorrection": "ESPN history lastSep19 incomplete. Official Norfolk preview: last competitive game Sep26 at Bluefield; Oct1 scrimmage excluded from record but physical workload relevant. 14 calendar days between competitive dates; exact kickoff/recovery timing unavailable." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Norfolk&state=VA&site=AKQ&textField1=36.8473&textField2=-76.2853&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.513691+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Cloudy, with a high near 74. East wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Tonight Rain likely, mainly between 11pm and 2am, then showers after 2am. Low around 68. East wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "Two Golmond starts already influence baseline; no second statistical injury deduction. Human -3 remains explicit user assumption and may be adverse despite better raw Golmond efficiency." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867974", "matchup": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Norfolk State Spartans", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Norfolk State Spartans", "names": [ "Deljay Bailey" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx" }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "Two Golmond starts already influence baseline; no second statistical injury deduction. Human -3 remains explicit user assumption and may be adverse despite better raw Golmond efficiency." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868256", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Valparaiso Beacons: QB Rowan Keefe/Noah Ehrlich, RB Cedric Benning Iii/Michael Rumoro/Russell Tye, WR Micah Mackay/Chris Gundy/Marty O'Keeffe, TE Colin Hayes/Dom DiNuzzo; Drake Bulldogs: QB Riley Warzynski/Chase Spellman, RB Kavaughn Clark/Cody Blicharz/Adrien Robbins, WR Willis Nofsinger/Mitchell January/Aidan Garcia, TE Chase Schutty", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.350833333333334, 36.22833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 30.458333333333336, 19.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.5, 35.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.37166666666666653, 1.1283333333333334 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 59, "off_points_proxy": 134, "def_points_proxy": 181, "off_plays": 479, "off_yards": 3010, "def_plays": 442, "def_yards": 2685, "early_plays": 346, "early_yards": 1965, "explosive_plays": 42, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868111", "401868219", "401868228", "401868254", "401868255" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.2711864406779663, "def_ppd": 3.0677966101694913, "off_ypp": 6.2839248434238, "def_ypp": 6.074660633484163, "early_down_ypp": 5.679190751445087 }, "home": { "off_drives": 50, "def_drives": 50, "off_points_proxy": 94, "def_points_proxy": 102, "off_plays": 331, "off_yards": 1879, "def_plays": 333, "def_yards": 2148, "early_plays": 225, "early_yards": 1259, "explosive_plays": 28, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867857", "401867867", "401868211", "401868270", "401868288" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.88, "def_ppd": 2.04, "off_ypp": 5.676737160120846, "def_ypp": 6.45045045045045, "early_down_ypp": 5.595555555555555 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2674", "teamName": "Valparaiso Beacons", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868270", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Valparaiso Beacons at Morehead State Eagles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Phil Simms Stadium", "address": { "city": "Morehead", "state": "KY", "zipCode": "40351", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2413", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2413", "displayName": "Morehead State Eagles" } }, { "id": "2674", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 37.0, "displayValue": "37" }, "team": { "id": "2674", "displayName": "Valparaiso Beacons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://valpoathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2181", "teamName": "Drake Bulldogs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868228", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Dayton Flyers at Drake Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Drake Stadium (IA)", "address": { "city": "Des Moines", "state": "IA", "zipCode": "50311", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2181", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2181", "displayName": "Drake Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2168", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 22.0, "displayValue": "22" }, "team": { "id": "2168", "displayName": "Dayton Flyers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://godrakebulldogs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Valparaiso. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Valparaiso&state=IN&site=LOT&textField1=41.4773&textField2=-87.051&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.585817+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 79. South southeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868256", "matchup": "Drake Bulldogs at Valparaiso Beacons", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868282", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "St. Thomas Tommies: QB Nick Peipert/Anthony Policare, RB Gabriel Abel/Joseph Koch/Mordecai Ford, WR Quentin Cobb-Butler/Pierce McCrary/Stefano Giovannelli, TE Luke Schuler; Stetson Hatters: QB Thomas Von Grote/Kael Alexander, RB Troy Flowers/Marvin Duffey Jr/Michael Dempsey, WR Landon Farco/Wyatt Rogers/Shawne Jones, TE Anthony Benzija/Gunner Chenier", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.96666666666667, 42.35 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 19.666666666666664, 35.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.35, 35.93333333333334 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -5.383333333333334, 6.883333333333334 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 53, "def_drives": 50, "off_points_proxy": 59, "def_points_proxy": 167, "off_plays": 368, "off_yards": 1795, "def_plays": 310, "def_yards": 2153, "early_plays": 253, "early_yards": 1203, "explosive_plays": 23, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868164", "401868264", "401868284", "401868285", "401872615" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.1132075471698113, "def_ppd": 3.34, "off_ypp": 4.877717391304348, "def_ypp": 6.945161290322581, "early_down_ypp": 4.75494071146245 }, "home": { "off_drives": 80, "def_drives": 78, "off_points_proxy": 183, "def_points_proxy": 173, "off_plays": 501, "off_yards": 3325, "def_plays": 525, "def_yards": 3217, "early_plays": 357, "early_yards": 2536, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867875", "401868159", "401868276", "401868279", "401868280", "401868281" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.2875, "def_ppd": 2.217948717948718, "off_ypp": 6.636726546906187, "def_ypp": 6.1276190476190475, "early_down_ypp": 7.103641456582633 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2900", "teamName": "St. Thomas Tommies", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868276", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "St. Thomas Tommies at Presbyterian Blue Hose", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Bailey Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clinton", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29325", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2506", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 55.0, "displayValue": "55" }, "team": { "id": "2506", "displayName": "Presbyterian Blue Hose" } }, { "id": "2900", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2900", "displayName": "St. Thomas Tommies" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.083, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tommiesports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "56", "teamName": "Stetson Hatters", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868264", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Marist Red Foxes at Stetson Hatters", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Spec Martin Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "DeLand", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32724", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "56", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "56", "displayName": "Stetson Hatters" } }, { "id": "2368", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2368", "displayName": "Marist Red Foxes" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gohatters.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Saint Paul. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Saint+Paul&state=MN&site=MPX&textField1=44.9477&textField2=-93.1037&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.640522+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 89. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 69. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868282", "matchup": "Stetson Hatters at St. Thomas Tommies", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401871473", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Lindenwood Lions: QB Pops Battle/Hoyt Gregory, RB Jared Rhodes/Noah Triplett/Robert Giaimo, WR Elijah Roy/Christopher Bennett Jr./Drew Krobath, TE Aiden Grote/Mac Busteed; Southeast Missouri State Redhawks: QB Braylen Ragland, RB Khyair Spain/Payton Brown/Tyrell Reed Jr., WR Jobe Bryant/Khylen Harris-Norman/Tristin Purnell, TE Clayton Leonard", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 26.075, 28.35833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.083333333333336, 27.416666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.95, 20.825 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.5583333333333336, 0.9416666666666664 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 64, "def_drives": 63, "off_points_proxy": 90, "def_points_proxy": 123, "off_plays": 447, "off_yards": 2414, "def_plays": 384, "def_yards": 2296, "early_plays": 313, "early_yards": 1191, "explosive_plays": 34, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856779", "401867855", "401867890", "401868133", "401871472" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.40625, "def_ppd": 1.9523809523809523, "off_ypp": 5.400447427293065, "def_ypp": 5.979166666666667, "early_down_ypp": 3.805111821086262 }, "home": { "off_drives": 42, "def_drives": 42, "off_points_proxy": 60, "def_points_proxy": 136, "off_plays": 320, "off_yards": 1696, "def_plays": 345, "def_yards": 2378, "early_plays": 213, "early_yards": 886, "explosive_plays": 26, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866427", "401866622", "401868169", "401871046" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 1.4285714285714286, "def_ppd": 3.238095238095238, "off_ypp": 5.3, "def_ypp": 6.892753623188406, "early_down_ypp": 4.15962441314554 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2815", "teamName": "Lindenwood Lions", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866427", "date": "2026-09-26T17:00Z", "name": "Lindenwood Lions at Eastern Michigan Eagles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Rynearson Stadium", "address": { "city": "Ypsilanti", "state": "MI", "zipCode": "48197", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2199", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 29.0, "displayValue": "29" }, "team": { "id": "2199", "displayName": "Eastern Michigan Eagles" } }, { "id": "2815", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2815", "displayName": "Lindenwood Lions" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://lindenwoodlions.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2546", "teamName": "Southeast Missouri State Redhawks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401871472", "date": "2026-09-26T23:00Z", "name": "West Florida Argonauts at Southeast Missouri State Redhawks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Houck Field", "address": { "city": "Cape Girardeau", "state": "MO", "zipCode": "63701", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2546", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 17.0, "displayValue": "17" }, "team": { "id": "2546", "displayName": "Southeast Missouri State Redhawks" } }, { "id": "110242", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "110242", "displayName": "West Florida Argonauts" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 13.792, "officialScheduleSource": "https://semoredhawks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Saint Charles. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Saint+Charles&state=MO&site=LSX&textField1=38.7906&textField2=-90.5164&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.773001+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 56. East wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401871473", "matchup": "Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Lindenwood Lions", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "761846", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 3 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T18:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Soldier Field" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Increasing clouds, with a high near 79. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868095", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Weber State Wildcats: QB Nate Dahle/Devin Brown, RB Seth Rigtrup/Omar Shah/Spencer Ferguson, WR Noah Kjar/Tate Kjar/Marvin Session, TE Kolby Howard; Idaho Vandals: QB Joshua Wood/Israel Carter, RB Hayden Kincheloe/Damonte Bias/Ferrari Miller, WR Tony Harste/Ryan Jezioro/Daveon Superales, TE no primary receiver established", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 32.89, 33.193333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.75, 24.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.733333333333334, 38.95 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.156666666666667, 1.343333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 136, "def_points_proxy": 195, "off_plays": 412, "off_yards": 2592, "def_plays": 435, "def_yards": 3177, "early_plays": 312, "early_yards": 1699, "explosive_plays": 38, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856768", "401868051", "401868073", "401868093", "401868094" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.3448275862068964, "def_ppd": 3.3620689655172415, "off_ypp": 6.29126213592233, "def_ypp": 7.303448275862069, "early_down_ypp": 5.44551282051282 }, "home": { "off_drives": 79, "def_drives": 83, "off_points_proxy": 211, "def_points_proxy": 238, "off_plays": 534, "off_yards": 3493, "def_plays": 589, "def_yards": 3919, "early_plays": 399, "early_yards": 2464, "explosive_plays": 59, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856785", "401868077", "401868129", "401868155", "401868158", "401868168" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.670886075949367, "def_ppd": 2.8674698795180724, "off_ypp": 6.5411985018726595, "def_ypp": 6.65365025466893, "early_down_ypp": 6.175438596491228 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2692", "teamName": "Weber State Wildcats", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868077", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Weber State Wildcats at Cal Poly Mustangs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 6, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final/2OT", "shortDetail": "Final/2OT", "altDetail": "2OT" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Luis Obispo", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "93405", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "13", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "13", "displayName": "Cal Poly Mustangs" } }, { "id": "2692", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2692", "displayName": "Weber State Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.792, "officialScheduleSource": "https://weberstatesports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "70", "teamName": "Idaho Vandals", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868094", "date": "2026-10-03T02:30Z", "name": "Montana State Bobcats at Idaho Vandals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T02:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Kibbie Dome", "address": { "city": "Moscow", "state": "ID", "zipCode": "83844", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "70", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "70", "displayName": "Idaho Vandals" } }, { "id": "147", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "147", "displayName": "Montana State Bobcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.688, "officialScheduleSource": "https://govandals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Ogden. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ogden&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=41.2231&textField2=-111.973&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.774002+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 67. South southeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Saturday A chance of showers before 9am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 9am and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. South wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Low around 55. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "Oct3 absent-Session result already enters form/base. No repeated empirical penalty; human -3 explicitly additional scenario only." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868095", "matchup": "Idaho Vandals at Weber State Wildcats", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Weber State Wildcats", "names": [ "Marvin Session" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00" } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "Oct3 absent-Session result already enters form/base. No repeated empirical penalty; human -3 explicitly additional scenario only." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868360", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Alcorn State Braves: QB Jaylon Tolbert, RB Fredrick Robertson/Ernest Temple/Carl McDonald Jr., WR Armon Wright/Jamarr Ebron/Tyree Kelly, TE no primary receiver established; Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes: QB Charles Coney/Jayden Young, RB Darryl Searcy Jr./Terrelle Weathers/Tavion Rupert, WR Cornell Russell/Taylor Poole/Leon Elloie, TE no primary receiver established", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. Current .50 influence cap violation: PASS required.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 1, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 3.666666666666668, 67.3125 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 16.583333333333336, 34.125 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 63.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -17, 18.5 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 17, "def_drives": 14, "off_points_proxy": 16, "def_points_proxy": 66, "off_plays": 97, "off_yards": 488, "def_plays": 63, "def_yards": 554, "early_plays": 63, "early_yards": 294, "explosive_plays": 8, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401869150" ], "games": 1, "off_ppd": 0.9411764705882353, "def_ppd": 4.714285714285714, "off_ypp": 5.030927835051546, "def_ypp": 8.793650793650794, "early_down_ypp": 4.666666666666667 }, "home": { "off_drives": 81, "def_drives": 78, "off_points_proxy": 239, "def_points_proxy": 235, "off_plays": 574, "off_yards": 3736, "def_plays": 549, "def_yards": 3968, "early_plays": 422, "early_yards": 2644, "explosive_plays": 60, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868151", "401868355", "401868356", "401868358", "401868359", "401896385" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.950617283950617, "def_ppd": 3.0128205128205128, "off_ypp": 6.508710801393728, "def_ypp": 7.2276867030965395, "early_down_ypp": 6.265402843601896 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2016", "teamName": "Alcorn State Braves", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868359", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Alcorn State Braves at Grambling Tigers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Eddie G. Robinson Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Grambling", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "71245", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2755", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 63.0, "displayValue": "63" }, "team": { "id": "2755", "displayName": "Grambling Tigers" } }, { "id": "2016", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 59.0, "displayValue": "59" }, "team": { "id": "2016", "displayName": "Alcorn State Braves" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://alcornsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "124386", "teamName": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401869150", "date": "2026-09-12T23:00Z", "name": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Houston Christian Huskies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-12T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Husky Stadium (TX)", "address": { "city": "Houston", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "77074", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2277", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 88.0, "displayValue": "88" }, "team": { "id": "2277", "displayName": "Houston Christian Huskies" } }, { "id": "124386", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "124386", "displayName": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": null, "officialScheduleSource": "https://abcbuffaloes.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Lorman. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated.", "restCorrection": "ESPN history incomplete for non-DI Arkansas Baptist; cannot infer 27.8 rest days from last retained result. Actual rest unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.987294+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 85. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 61. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868360", "matchup": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Alcorn State Braves", "risks": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "sample_cap", "facts": [ "Retained fixed50% current component exceeds25% cap for at least one1\u20133game sample. Preserve scores; no tiers." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868382", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Mercer Bears: QB Jaylen King/JP Pickles, RB Devon Caldwell/Zahmari Palode-Gary/Micah Bell, WR Brayden Smith/Eric Rasheed/Travion Solomon, TE Kaden Hanson/Jackson Kostmayer; Western Carolina Catamounts: QB Lex Thomas/Patrick Harding, RB Josh Perry/Marlin Cochran/Anthony Benjamin, WR AJ Colombo/Michael Rossin/Santana Carlos, TE no primary receiver established", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 29.966666666666672, 37.65833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 32.04166666666667, 34.83333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.75, 33.333333333333336 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -2.075, 3.575 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 77, "def_drives": 74, "off_points_proxy": 208, "def_points_proxy": 204, "off_plays": 560, "off_yards": 3413, "def_plays": 513, "def_yards": 3324, "early_plays": 407, "early_yards": 2333, "explosive_plays": 46, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856786", "401868139", "401868275", "401868346", "401868391", "401917058" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.7012987012987013, "def_ppd": 2.7567567567567566, "off_ypp": 6.0946428571428575, "def_ypp": 6.47953216374269, "early_down_ypp": 5.732186732186732 }, "home": { "off_drives": 76, "def_drives": 77, "off_points_proxy": 192, "def_points_proxy": 102, "off_plays": 488, "off_yards": 3622, "def_plays": 509, "def_yards": 2596, "early_plays": 341, "early_yards": 2313, "explosive_plays": 58, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858228", "401868052", "401868274", "401868374", "401868381", "401874042" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.526315789473684, "def_ppd": 1.3246753246753247, "off_ypp": 7.422131147540983, "def_ypp": 5.100196463654224, "early_down_ypp": 6.782991202346041 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2382", "teamName": "Mercer Bears", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868381", "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "name": "Mercer Bears at VMI Keydets", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Foster Stadium", "address": { "city": "Lexington", "state": "VA", "zipCode": "24450", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2678", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2678", "displayName": "VMI Keydets" } }, { "id": "2382", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 54.0, "displayValue": "54" }, "team": { "id": "2382", "displayName": "Mercer Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.062, "officialScheduleSource": "https://mercerbears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2717", "teamName": "Western Carolina Catamounts", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868391", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Western Carolina Catamounts", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "E.J. Whitmire Stadium", "address": { "city": "Cullowhee", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "28723", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2717", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "2717", "displayName": "Western Carolina Catamounts" } }, { "id": "2635", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "2635", "displayName": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://catamountsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Macon. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Macon&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=32.8368&textField2=-83.6568&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.034039+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 80. Southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southeast wind around 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868382", "matchup": "Western Carolina Catamounts at Mercer Bears", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868966", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Texas Southern Tigers: QB Cam'Ron McCoy/Nelson Peterson Jr., RB Athean Renfro Jr./Jacob Washington/David Kency, WR Roriyon Richardson/Daveon Walker/Fatu Mukuba, TE Xavier Phipps; Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils: QB Josh Brown/Jordon Davis, RB Norman Taylor/Carter James/Dezmond Ray, WR Caleb Brownlow/Mekhi Penix/Nicholas Buggs, TE Jaylen King", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.024545454545454, 33.638333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.848484848484848, 32.24242424242424 ], "currentMatchup": [ 31.7, 28.68333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.6754545454545455, 3.1754545454545458 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 78, "def_drives": 81, "off_points_proxy": 85, "def_points_proxy": 203, "off_plays": 448, "off_yards": 2431, "def_plays": 510, "def_yards": 2854, "early_plays": 303, "early_yards": 1539, "explosive_plays": 38, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866411", "401868327", "401868962", "401868963", "401868964", "401868965" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.0897435897435896, "def_ppd": 2.506172839506173, "off_ypp": 5.426339285714286, "def_ypp": 5.596078431372549, "early_down_ypp": 5.079207920792079 }, "home": { "off_drives": 66, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 116, "def_points_proxy": 224, "off_plays": 464, "off_yards": 2824, "def_plays": 393, "def_yards": 2789, "early_plays": 331, "early_yards": 1912, "explosive_plays": 46, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862790", "401864505", "401867977", "401868358", "401868967" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.7575757575757576, "def_ppd": 3.6129032258064515, "off_ypp": 6.086206896551724, "def_ypp": 7.096692111959287, "early_down_ypp": 5.77643504531722 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2640", "teamName": "Texas Southern Tigers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401862790", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Texas Southern Tigers at Florida Atlantic Owls", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Flagler Credit Union Stadium", "address": { "city": "Boca Raton", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "33431", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2226", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 66.0, "displayValue": "66" }, "team": { "id": "2226", "displayName": "Florida Atlantic Owls" } }, { "id": "2640", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2640", "displayName": "Texas Southern Tigers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tsusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2400", "teamName": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868965", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Prairie View A&M Panthers at Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Rice-Totten Stadium", "address": { "city": "Itta Bena", "state": "MS", "zipCode": "38941", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2400", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2400", "displayName": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils" } }, { "id": "2504", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "2504", "displayName": "Prairie View A&M Panthers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://mvsusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Houston. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Houston&state=TX&site=HGX&textField1=29.7687&textField2=-95.3867&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.044621+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 90. East wind around 5 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 70. South wind around 5 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868966", "matchup": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Texas Southern Tigers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401856717", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Texas Longhorns: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Harris is second WR by current receiving yards, 6/104; loss redistributes targets toward Sategna and primary receiving TE Beers (18/255). Robinson 13 carries is a secondary committee risk: retain isolated conditional-role -3 sensitivity but no unsupported automatic joint penalty. Current offensive-line outs/doubtful status increase protection uncertainty without extra coefficients.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 24.320833333333333, 21.950000000000003 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 21.75, 23.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.625, 17.625 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.1333333333333329, -1.1333333333333329 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 45, "def_drives": 46, "off_points_proxy": 126, "def_points_proxy": 46, "off_plays": 358, "off_yards": 1955, "def_plays": 347, "def_yards": 1750, "early_plays": 252, "early_yards": 1229, "explosive_plays": 21, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856667", "401856682", "401856693", "401856704" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.8, "def_ppd": 1.0, "off_ypp": 5.460893854748603, "def_ypp": 5.043227665706052, "early_down_ypp": 4.876984126984127 }, "home": { "off_drives": 47, "def_drives": 48, "off_points_proxy": 82, "def_points_proxy": 57, "off_plays": 316, "off_yards": 1871, "def_plays": 297, "def_yards": 1446, "early_plays": 227, "early_yards": 1132, "explosive_plays": 29, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856664", "401856679", "401856690", "401856700" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 1.7446808510638299, "def_ppd": 1.1875, "off_ypp": 5.920886075949367, "def_ypp": 4.8686868686868685, "early_down_ypp": 4.986784140969163 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Clear, with a low around 68. South southeast wind around 5 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dallas&state=TX&site=FWD&textField1=32.7942&textField2=-96.7652&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Oklahoma Sooners", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Xavier Robinson", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Xavier Robinson" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856717", "matchup": "Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma Sooners", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Oklahoma Sooners", "names": [ "Trell Harris" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Oklahoma Sooners", "names": [ "Xavier Robinson" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Oklahoma Sooners", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Xavier Robinson", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Xavier Robinson" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401856718", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official game center identifies Lacy rushing leader (191 yards), current SEC QUESTIONABLE. Replacement committee is candidate redistribution; final touch shares remain unverified. Dye's one current carry is not a second material-loss deduction. | Vanderbilt Commodores: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.848333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.583333333333336, 29.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.25, 28.075 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.4016666666666673, 1.0983333333333327 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 45, "def_drives": 46, "off_points_proxy": 140, "def_points_proxy": 122, "off_plays": 338, "off_yards": 2307, "def_plays": 349, "def_yards": 2212, "early_plays": 263, "early_yards": 1681, "explosive_plays": 30, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856661", "401856676", "401856688", "401856699" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 3.111111111111111, "def_ppd": 2.652173913043478, "off_ypp": 6.825443786982248, "def_ypp": 6.33810888252149, "early_down_ypp": 6.391634980988593 }, "home": { "off_drives": 53, "def_drives": 56, "off_points_proxy": 106, "def_points_proxy": 113, "off_plays": 390, "off_yards": 2251, "def_plays": 412, "def_yards": 2219, "early_plays": 268, "early_yards": 1380, "explosive_plays": 26, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856669", "401856684", "401856695", "401856698", "401856705" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.0, "def_ppd": 2.017857142857143, "off_ypp": 5.771794871794872, "def_ypp": 5.385922330097087, "early_down_ypp": 5.149253731343284 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 62. East wind around 5 mph. Saturday Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. High near 71. East southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers, mainly before 11pm. Low around 59. East northeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Nashville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1716&textField2=-86.7848&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Kewan Lacy" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856718", "matchup": "Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "names": [ "Kewan Lacy" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Kewan Lacy" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401856825", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Houston Cougars: current report contains 2 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Kansas State Wildcats: current report contains 2 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 28.095, 29.4175 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.5, 25.625 ], "currentMatchup": [ 28.125, 30.15 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.030000000000000072, 1.53 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 54, "def_drives": 56, "off_points_proxy": 207, "def_points_proxy": 101, "off_plays": 425, "off_yards": 2814, "def_plays": 389, "def_yards": 1961, "early_plays": 336, "early_yards": 2172, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856778", "401856787", "401856806", "401856811", "401856819" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.8333333333333335, "def_ppd": 1.8035714285714286, "off_ypp": 6.621176470588235, "def_ypp": 5.041131105398458, "early_down_ypp": 6.464285714285714 }, "home": { "off_drives": 45, "def_drives": 45, "off_points_proxy": 155, "def_points_proxy": 54, "off_plays": 351, "off_yards": 2284, "def_plays": 293, "def_yards": 1439, "early_plays": 263, "early_yards": 1709, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856771", "401856781", "401856792", "401856814" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 3.4444444444444446, "def_ppd": 1.2, "off_ypp": 6.507122507122507, "def_ypp": 4.911262798634812, "early_down_ypp": 6.498098859315589 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 89. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 66. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Manhattan&state=KS&site=TOP&textField1=39.1901&textField2=-96.59&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856825", "matchup": "Houston Cougars at Kansas State Wildcats", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [] }, { "eventId": "401858255", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Duke Blue Devils: current report contains 5 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.4599358974359, 30.240384615384617 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.5, 30.887820512820515 ], "currentMatchup": [ 31.125, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.1474358974358974, -0.6474358974358974 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 47, "def_drives": 45, "off_points_proxy": 145, "def_points_proxy": 44, "off_plays": 349, "off_yards": 2106, "def_plays": 308, "def_yards": 1528, "early_plays": 248, "early_yards": 1508, "explosive_plays": 30, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858209", "401858217", "401858231", "401858244" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 3.0851063829787235, "def_ppd": 0.9777777777777777, "off_ypp": 6.034383954154728, "def_ypp": 4.961038961038961, "early_down_ypp": 6.080645161290323 }, "home": { "off_drives": 44, "def_drives": 44, "off_points_proxy": 102, "def_points_proxy": 102, "off_plays": 328, "off_yards": 2220, "def_plays": 355, "def_yards": 1753, "early_plays": 233, "early_yards": 1670, "explosive_plays": 40, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856681", "401856776", "401858228", "401858240" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.3181818181818183, "def_ppd": 2.3181818181818183, "off_ypp": 6.7682926829268295, "def_ypp": 4.938028169014085, "early_down_ypp": 7.167381974248927 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 74. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 61. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Atlanta&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=33.7629&textField2=-84.4226&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858255", "matchup": "Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "names": [ "Malachi Hosley" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401858257", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Stanford Cardinal: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Notre Dame Fighting Irish: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 9.71333333333333, 47.63666666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 18.208333333333332, 35.583333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 14.6, 39.7 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -8.495000000000003, 9.995000000000003 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 59, "off_points_proxy": 78, "def_points_proxy": 193, "off_plays": 456, "off_yards": 2281, "def_plays": 444, "def_yards": 2675, "early_plays": 311, "early_yards": 1596, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858201", "401858206", "401858231", "401858240", "401858251" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.3220338983050848, "def_ppd": 3.2711864406779663, "off_ypp": 5.00219298245614, "def_ypp": 6.024774774774775, "early_down_ypp": 5.131832797427653 }, "home": { "off_drives": 51, "def_drives": 52, "off_points_proxy": 186, "def_points_proxy": 61, "off_plays": 405, "off_yards": 2501, "def_plays": 382, "def_yards": 1732, "early_plays": 298, "early_yards": 1953, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858250", "401858438", "401858453", "401858467", "401859184" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.6470588235294117, "def_ppd": 1.1730769230769231, "off_ypp": 6.175308641975309, "def_ypp": 4.534031413612565, "early_down_ypp": 6.553691275167785 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 78. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Notre+Dame&state=IN&site=IWX&textField1=41.701&textField2=-86.2416&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Stanford Cardinal", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858257", "matchup": "Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Stanford Cardinal", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Stanford Cardinal", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401858259", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Virginia Tech Hokies: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | QB QUESTIONABLE and lead RB DOUBTFUL, neither silently converted OUT. Brousseau's UNLV relief: 19/32, 200 yards, two TD, no INT. Separate isolated -3 branches plus combined -6 for QB passing role and RB rushing workload; Mohammed receiving targets overlap passing loss and are not counted a third time. Rolovich retained as QB coach provides verified system context, not automatic score credit.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.320833333333336, 27.608333333333334 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.958333333333336, 27.5 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.900000000000006, 23.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.3916666666666673, 0.10833333333333273 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 64, "off_points_proxy": 189, "def_points_proxy": 109, "off_plays": 474, "off_yards": 2779, "def_plays": 400, "def_yards": 1741, "early_plays": 345, "early_yards": 2040, "explosive_plays": 38, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858211", "401858221", "401858232", "401858242", "401858245" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.0483870967741935, "def_ppd": 1.703125, "off_ypp": 5.862869198312236, "def_ypp": 4.3525, "early_down_ypp": 5.913043478260869 }, "home": { "off_drives": 64, "def_drives": 65, "off_points_proxy": 120, "def_points_proxy": 127, "off_plays": 452, "off_yards": 2732, "def_plays": 437, "def_yards": 2626, "early_plays": 316, "early_yards": 1745, "explosive_plays": 39, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858210", "401858216", "401858233", "401858234", "401858247" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.875, "def_ppd": 1.9538461538461538, "off_ypp": 6.04424778761062, "def_ypp": 6.009153318077804, "early_down_ypp": 5.522151898734177 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 59. South southwest wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51. South southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Berkeley&state=CA&site=MTR&textField1=37.8717&textField2=-122.272&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "California Golden Bears", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, Adam Mohammed" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858259", "matchup": "Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden Bears", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "California Golden Bears", "names": [ "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "Adam Mohammed" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "California Golden Bears", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, Adam Mohammed" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401858480", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Valentine's 50 carries exceed Laughery's 45, verifying material committee role despite fewer yards. Laughery 321 yards becomes main redistribution candidate. Receiving loss only three catches and not an independent second deduction. | Edwards leads 64 carries/304 yards. Patterson 44/162 and Parrish 29/89 make redistribution plausible. QB Fancher is questionable reserve (11 attempts versus Milivojevic 129); this alone does not justify starting-QB -3.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.364166666666666, 23.314999999999998 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.625, 23.916666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.9, 22.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.101666666666667, -0.601666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 47, "def_drives": 48, "off_points_proxy": 140, "def_points_proxy": 129, "off_plays": 394, "off_yards": 2557, "def_plays": 429, "def_yards": 2473, "early_plays": 290, "early_yards": 1806, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858217", "401858424", "401858448", "401858465", "401858472" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.978723404255319, "def_ppd": 2.6875, "off_ypp": 6.48984771573604, "def_ypp": 5.764568764568764, "early_down_ypp": 6.227586206896552 }, "home": { "off_drives": 50, "def_drives": 51, "off_points_proxy": 90, "def_points_proxy": 117, "off_plays": 437, "off_yards": 2246, "def_plays": 394, "def_yards": 2031, "early_plays": 302, "early_yards": 1528, "explosive_plays": 28, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858429", "401858440", "401858453", "401858464", "401858479" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.8, "def_ppd": 2.2941176470588234, "off_ypp": 5.139588100686499, "def_ypp": 5.154822335025381, "early_down_ypp": 5.059602649006623 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Increasing clouds, with a high near 75. South southeast wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=East+Lansing&state=MI&site=GRR&textField1=42.736&textField2=-84.4843&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858480", "matchup": "Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Illinois Fighting Illini", "names": [ "Ca'Lil Valentine" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Michigan State Spartans", "names": [ "Cam Edwards" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [] }, { "eventId": "401858484", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "UCLA Bruins: current report contains 2 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.316666666666666, 39.641666666666666 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 16.5, 35.791666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 34.0, 33.125 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.683333333333333, 5.183333333333334 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 52, "def_drives": 53, "off_points_proxy": 166, "def_points_proxy": 75, "off_plays": 339, "off_yards": 2365, "def_plays": 361, "def_yards": 1785, "early_plays": 253, "early_yards": 1818, "explosive_plays": 37, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858210", "401858443", "401858458", "401858462" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 3.1923076923076925, "def_ppd": 1.4150943396226414, "off_ypp": 6.976401179941003, "def_ypp": 4.944598337950138, "early_down_ypp": 7.1857707509881426 }, "home": { "off_drives": 48, "def_drives": 51, "off_points_proxy": 183, "def_points_proxy": 94, "off_plays": 346, "off_yards": 2260, "def_plays": 344, "def_yards": 1892, "early_plays": 258, "early_yards": 1658, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856782", "401858433", "401858455", "401858469" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 3.8125, "def_ppd": 1.8431372549019607, "off_ypp": 6.531791907514451, "def_ypp": 5.5, "early_down_ypp": 6.426356589147287 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight Partly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 44. Calm wind. Saturday Patchy fog between 9am and 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 59. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph in the afternoon. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Light north northwest wind. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Eugene&state=OR&site=PQR&textField1=44.0522&textField2=-123.086&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UCLA Bruins", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Mikey Matthews", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Mikey Matthews" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858484", "matchup": "UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "UCLA Bruins", "names": [ "Mikey Matthews" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Oregon Ducks", "names": [ "Dante Moore", "Jeremiah McClellan" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UCLA Bruins", "facts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Mikey Matthews", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Mikey Matthews" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401862796", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Charlotte 49ers: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | North Texas Mean Green: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 17.815384615384616, 49.36025641025641 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 19.628205128205128, 40.55128205128205 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.1, 40.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -7.2846153846153845, 8.784615384615385 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 72, "def_points_proxy": 203, "off_plays": 367, "off_yards": 1901, "def_plays": 450, "def_yards": 2714, "early_plays": 252, "early_yards": 1239, "explosive_plays": 26, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856676", "401862694", "401862780", "401862787", "401864574" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.2413793103448276, "def_ppd": 3.274193548387097, "off_ypp": 5.179836512261581, "def_ypp": 6.0311111111111115, "early_down_ypp": 4.916666666666667 }, "home": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 196, "def_points_proxy": 166, "off_plays": 459, "off_yards": 3193, "def_plays": 435, "def_yards": 2567, "early_plays": 349, "early_yards": 2341, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858425", "401860889", "401862705", "401862783", "401862786" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.2131147540983607, "def_ppd": 2.721311475409836, "off_ypp": 6.9564270152505445, "def_ypp": 5.901149425287357, "early_down_ypp": 6.707736389684814 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Clear, with a low around 66. South southeast wind around 5 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=33.2083&lon=-97.1387", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Charlotte 49ers", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "North Texas Mean Green", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401862796", "matchup": "Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean Green", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Charlotte 49ers", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "North Texas Mean Green", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Charlotte 49ers", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "North Texas Mean Green", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401862799", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Navy Midshipmen: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.593333333333334, 28.814999999999998 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.583333333333336, 30.041666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.275, 23.225 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.6816666666666666, 2.1816666666666666 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 65, "off_points_proxy": 135, "def_points_proxy": 112, "off_plays": 427, "off_yards": 2148, "def_plays": 479, "def_yards": 2674, "early_plays": 294, "early_yards": 1498, "explosive_plays": 25, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856697", "401856772", "401862707", "401862775", "401862786" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.2131147540983607, "def_ppd": 1.7230769230769232, "off_ypp": 5.030444964871195, "def_ypp": 5.582463465553236, "early_down_ypp": 5.095238095238095 }, "home": { "off_drives": 43, "def_drives": 43, "off_points_proxy": 100, "def_points_proxy": 95, "off_plays": 317, "off_yards": 1904, "def_plays": 317, "def_yards": 1826, "early_plays": 228, "early_yards": 1362, "explosive_plays": 24, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862696", "401862703", "401862778", "401862791" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.3255813953488373, "def_ppd": 2.2093023255813953, "off_ypp": 6.006309148264984, "def_ypp": 5.760252365930599, "early_down_ypp": 5.973684210526316 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Light northeast wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Tonight Showers likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Annapolis&state=MD&site=LWX&textField1=38.9716&textField2=-76.503&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Navy Midshipmen", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401862799", "matchup": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy Midshipmen", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Navy Midshipmen", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Navy Midshipmen", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401866435", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Eastern Michigan Eagles: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Akron Zips: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 27.943333333333335, 26.373333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.75, 26.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.883333333333333, 22.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.126666666666667, 0.3733333333333331 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 65, "def_drives": 64, "off_points_proxy": 127, "def_points_proxy": 130, "off_plays": 519, "off_yards": 2568, "def_plays": 480, "def_yards": 2705, "early_plays": 356, "early_yards": 1611, "explosive_plays": 34, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858440", "401858460", "401864495", "401866408", "401866427", "401866433" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.9538461538461538, "def_ppd": 2.03125, "off_ypp": 4.9479768786127165, "def_ypp": 5.635416666666667, "early_down_ypp": 4.525280898876405 }, "home": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 96, "def_points_proxy": 161, "off_plays": 428, "off_yards": 2485, "def_plays": 387, "def_yards": 2575, "early_plays": 311, "early_yards": 1744, "explosive_plays": 35, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858204", "401858451", "401864512", "401866412", "401866430" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.6551724137931034, "def_ppd": 2.7758620689655173, "off_ypp": 5.80607476635514, "def_ypp": 6.6537467700258395, "early_down_ypp": 5.607717041800643 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Southeast wind 5 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 5am. Low around 55. Southeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Akron&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.0804&textField2=-81.5215&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Eastern Michigan Eagles", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Akron Zips", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866435", "matchup": "Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron Zips", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Eastern Michigan Eagles", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Akron Zips", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Eastern Michigan Eagles", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Akron Zips", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401866437", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Buffalo Bulls: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Toledo Rockets: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.40833333333333, 38.1125 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 18.083333333333332, 27.541666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.0, 36.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.591666666666667, 6.091666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 65, "def_drives": 64, "off_points_proxy": 102, "def_points_proxy": 147, "off_plays": 473, "off_yards": 2284, "def_plays": 425, "def_yards": 2427, "early_plays": 326, "early_yards": 1372, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858456", "401866409", "401866414", "401866426", "401866432" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.5692307692307692, "def_ppd": 2.296875, "off_ypp": 4.828752642706131, "def_ypp": 5.710588235294118, "early_down_ypp": 4.208588957055214 }, "home": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 63, "off_points_proxy": 197, "def_points_proxy": 123, "off_plays": 434, "off_yards": 2891, "def_plays": 464, "def_yards": 2632, "early_plays": 311, "early_yards": 2094, "explosive_plays": 44, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858429", "401860893", "401862774", "401866419", "401866431" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.283333333333333, "def_ppd": 1.9523809523809523, "off_ypp": 6.661290322580645, "def_ypp": 5.672413793103448, "early_down_ypp": 6.733118971061093 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Southeast wind 3 to 8 mph. Tonight A chance of rain and thunderstorms, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Low around 58. Southeast wind around 7 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Toledo&state=OH&site=CLE&textField1=41.6639&textField2=-83.5816&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Buffalo Bulls", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866437", "matchup": "Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Buffalo Bulls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Buffalo Bulls", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401866438", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Central Michigan Chippewas: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Ohio Bobcats: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 22.136666666666667, 28.621666666666666 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.375, 25.666666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 22.200000000000003, 26.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.2383333333333333, 2.7383333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 53, "def_drives": 52, "off_points_proxy": 90, "def_points_proxy": 122, "off_plays": 383, "off_yards": 1810, "def_plays": 414, "def_yards": 2581, "early_plays": 263, "early_yards": 1096, "explosive_plays": 22, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858238", "401864498", "401864508", "401866415", "401866430" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.6981132075471699, "def_ppd": 2.3461538461538463, "off_ypp": 4.725848563968668, "def_ypp": 6.234299516908212, "early_down_ypp": 4.167300380228137 }, "home": { "off_drives": 53, "def_drives": 53, "off_points_proxy": 123, "def_points_proxy": 141, "off_plays": 406, "off_yards": 2464, "def_plays": 403, "def_yards": 2224, "early_plays": 288, "early_yards": 1622, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858430", "401866418", "401866423", "401866428", "401866434" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.3207547169811322, "def_ppd": 2.660377358490566, "off_ypp": 6.068965517241379, "def_ypp": 5.518610421836228, "early_down_ypp": 5.631944444444445 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after midnight. Low around 56. East wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Athens&state=OH&site=RLX&textField1=39.3242&textField2=-82.0961&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ohio Bobcats", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866438", "matchup": "Central Michigan Chippewas at Ohio Bobcats", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Ohio Bobcats", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ohio Bobcats", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401866439", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Kent State Golden Flashes: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Western Michigan Broncos: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 15.948589743589741, 33.24147435897436 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 19.740384615384613, 28.599358974358978 ], "currentMatchup": [ 17.2, 27.299999999999997 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.791794871794872, 5.291794871794872 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 55, "def_drives": 57, "off_points_proxy": 67, "def_points_proxy": 150, "off_plays": 405, "off_yards": 1853, "def_plays": 369, "def_yards": 2324, "early_plays": 270, "early_yards": 992, "explosive_plays": 26, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856665", "401858454", "401866416", "401866425", "401866434" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.2181818181818183, "def_ppd": 2.6315789473684212, "off_ypp": 4.575308641975309, "def_ypp": 6.29810298102981, "early_down_ypp": 3.674074074074074 }, "home": { "off_drives": 52, "def_drives": 51, "off_points_proxy": 116, "def_points_proxy": 97, "off_plays": 378, "off_yards": 1965, "def_plays": 414, "def_yards": 2111, "early_plays": 269, "early_yards": 1351, "explosive_plays": 23, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858428", "401860897", "401862773", "401866421", "401866432" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.230769230769231, "def_ppd": 1.9019607843137254, "off_ypp": 5.198412698412699, "def_ypp": 5.099033816425121, "early_down_ypp": 5.022304832713755 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 76. South wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Kalamazoo&state=MI&site=GRR&textField1=42.2747&textField2=-85.5883&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Kent State Golden Flashes", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Western Michigan Broncos", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866439", "matchup": "Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan Broncos", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Kent State Golden Flashes", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Western Michigan Broncos", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Kent State Golden Flashes", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Western Michigan Broncos", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868011", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Fordham Rams: QB Gunnar Smith/Crew Colon, RB Jamell James/Yohan-Li Louis/Taariq Denson, WR Ricky Gonzalez II/Nodin Tracy/KJ Reed, TE Chris Tuck II/John Morris; Richmond Spiders: QB Ashten Snelsire, RB Aziz Foster-Powell/Jamaal Brown/Warrick Stephenson, WR Bryce Allen/Andreas Hill/Quanye Veney, TE Carson Derey/Sean Clarke", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 30.866666666666667, 20.008333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.5, 19.291666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 28.25, 21.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.9916666666666667, -1.4916666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 82, "def_drives": 78, "off_points_proxy": 138, "def_points_proxy": 164, "off_plays": 542, "off_yards": 2786, "def_plays": 449, "def_yards": 2609, "early_plays": 394, "early_yards": 1898, "explosive_plays": 34, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858222", "401867988", "401868018", "401868029", "401868037", "401869127" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.6829268292682926, "def_ppd": 2.1025641025641026, "off_ypp": 5.1402214022140225, "def_ypp": 5.810690423162583, "early_down_ypp": 4.817258883248731 }, "home": { "off_drives": 72, "def_drives": 71, "off_points_proxy": 83, "def_points_proxy": 193, "off_plays": 469, "off_yards": 2547, "def_plays": 511, "def_yards": 3100, "early_plays": 322, "early_yards": 1686, "explosive_plays": 39, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401864499", "401866648", "401868007", "401868008", "401868009", "401868010" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.1527777777777777, "def_ppd": 2.7183098591549295, "off_ypp": 5.430703624733476, "def_ypp": 6.066536203522505, "early_down_ypp": 5.236024844720497 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2230", "teamName": "Fordham Rams", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868010", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Fordham Rams at Lehigh Mountain Hawks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Goodman Stadium", "address": { "city": "Bethlehem", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "18015", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2329", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "2329", "displayName": "Lehigh Mountain Hawks" } }, { "id": "2230", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "2230", "displayName": "Fordham Rams" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.146, "officialScheduleSource": "https://fordhamsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "257", "teamName": "Richmond Spiders", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868029", "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "name": "Richmond Spiders at Lafayette Leopards", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Fisher Stadium", "address": { "city": "Easton", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "18042", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "322", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "322", "displayName": "Lafayette Leopards" } }, { "id": "257", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 40.0, "displayValue": "40" }, "team": { "id": "257", "displayName": "Richmond Spiders" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://richmondspiders.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Bronx. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bronx&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=40.8489&textField2=-73.8762&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.056119+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 6 mph in the morning. Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 55. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868011", "matchup": "Richmond Spiders at Fordham Rams", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868180", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: QB Cole Pennington, RB Christian Vann, WR Kory Jones/Giovanni Adopte/Montez Green, TE Collin Carroll/Beau Blankenship; Eastern Illinois Panthers: QB Cole LaCrue/Jeremiah Salem, RB Charles Kellom/Tyren Buggs/Jacarre Fleming-Page, WR Jeremy Reeves/Devin Whitlock/Landers Green, TE Alex Ginnever/Whitten Weems", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 20.33, 35.26166666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.625, 28.333333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 32.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.2950000000000004, 4.795 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 57, "off_points_proxy": 104, "def_points_proxy": 185, "off_plays": 389, "off_yards": 1895, "def_plays": 442, "def_yards": 2915, "early_plays": 257, "early_yards": 1069, "explosive_plays": 25, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858422", "401867846", "401867856", "401867865", "401868179" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.793103448275862, "def_ppd": 3.245614035087719, "off_ypp": 4.87146529562982, "def_ypp": 6.595022624434389, "early_down_ypp": 4.159533073929961 }, "home": { "off_drives": 71, "def_drives": 78, "off_points_proxy": 128, "def_points_proxy": 138, "off_plays": 557, "off_yards": 3373, "def_plays": 487, "def_yards": 2970, "early_plays": 384, "early_yards": 2091, "explosive_plays": 49, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867979", "401868060", "401868173", "401868186", "401868187", "401868188" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.8028169014084507, "def_ppd": 1.7692307692307692, "off_ypp": 6.055655296229802, "def_ypp": 6.098562628336755, "early_down_ypp": 5.4453125 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2241", "teamName": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868173", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Buccaneer Field", "address": { "city": "Charleston", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29406", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2127", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2127", "displayName": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers" } }, { "id": "2241", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 12.0, "displayValue": "12" }, "team": { "id": "2241", "displayName": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gwusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2197", "teamName": "Eastern Illinois Panthers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868179", "date": "2026-09-26T23:00Z", "name": "Eastern Illinois Panthers at South Dakota State Jackrabbits", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium", "address": { "city": "Brookings", "state": "SD", "zipCode": "57006", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2571", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2571", "displayName": "South Dakota State Jackrabbits" } }, { "id": "2197", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "2197", "displayName": "Eastern Illinois Panthers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 13.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://eiupanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Boiling Springs. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Boiling%20Springs%2C%20NC", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.114036+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "National Weather Service Skip Navigation NOAA weather.gov More than one location matched your submission Please select one of the following choices Search for: NWS All NOAA Home Site Map News Organization Search for local forecast by \"City, St\" or Zip Code Boiling Springs, NC (Cleveland County) Boiling Springs, NC (Cherokee County) NOAA's National Weather Service www.crh.noaa.gov Disclaimer Credits Glossary Privacy Policy About Us Career Opportunities", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868180", "matchup": "Eastern Illinois Panthers at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868198", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Tennessee State Tigers: QB Daylin Lee, RB Brenton Paul/Trevor Pearson, WR Cam Bulluck/Jayden Guy/Brock Montgomery, TE Aaron Duncan II/Francisco Pratts III; UT Martin Skyhawks: QB Tate Surber, RB Chris Franklin/Jaydon Peete/Tommy Ansley, WR Makhia Sherrard/Deuce Oliver/Anthony Carter, TE Dawson Adams-Grenier/Connie Hewitt II", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 27.284166666666668, 25.47833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.625, 18.416666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.9, 25.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.5216666666666667, -0.021666666666666723 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 55, "def_drives": 55, "off_points_proxy": 90, "def_points_proxy": 172, "off_plays": 399, "off_yards": 1986, "def_plays": 392, "def_yards": 2542, "early_plays": 292, "early_yards": 1410, "explosive_plays": 25, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856791", "401862772", "401867684", "401868063", "401868070" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.6363636363636365, "def_ppd": 3.1272727272727274, "off_ypp": 4.977443609022556, "def_ypp": 6.48469387755102, "early_down_ypp": 4.828767123287672 }, "home": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 72, "def_points_proxy": 167, "off_plays": 446, "off_yards": 2050, "def_plays": 421, "def_yards": 3416, "early_plays": 310, "early_yards": 1411, "explosive_plays": 29, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856658", "401868194", "401868195", "401868196", "401868197" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.2203389830508475, "def_ppd": 2.737704918032787, "off_ypp": 4.596412556053812, "def_ypp": 8.114014251781473, "early_down_ypp": 4.551612903225807 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2634", "teamName": "Tennessee State Tigers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868197", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Tennessee State Tigers at Western Illinois Leathernecks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Hanson Field", "address": { "city": "Macomb", "state": "IL", "zipCode": "61455", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2710", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2710", "displayName": "Western Illinois Leathernecks" } }, { "id": "2634", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2634", "displayName": "Tennessee State Tigers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.979, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tsutigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2630", "teamName": "UT Martin Skyhawks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868063", "date": "2026-09-26T18:00Z", "name": "UT Martin Skyhawks at Austin Peay Governors", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Fortera Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clarksville", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37040", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2046", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "2046", "displayName": "Austin Peay Governors" } }, { "id": "2630", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 12.0, "displayValue": "12" }, "team": { "id": "2630", "displayName": "UT Martin Skyhawks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.062, "officialScheduleSource": "https://utmsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Nashville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Nashville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1716&textField2=-86.7848&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.149603+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 62. East wind around 5 mph. Saturday Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. High near 71. East southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers, mainly before 11pm. Low around 59. East northeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868198", "matchup": "UT Martin Skyhawks at Tennessee State Tigers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868376", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles: QB Jax Leatherwood, RB M.J. Flowers/Marcus Harris II/Qua Ashley, WR Gabe Nunez/Tre' Holloway/Maury Sullivan, TE Lazaro Rodriguez/Gerard Grewe; Furman Paladins: QB Connor Ackerley/Trey Smith, RB Ben Croasdale/CJ Nettles, WR Luke Shields/Ethan Harris/Daniel Haughton, TE Jackson Pryor/Cameron James", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 17.4948717948718, 36.8525641025641 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 21.554487179487182, 34.269230769230774 ], "currentMatchup": [ 20.733333333333334, 28.316666666666663 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.059615384615384, 5.559615384615384 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 79, "def_drives": 81, "off_points_proxy": 92, "def_points_proxy": 139, "off_plays": 544, "off_yards": 2859, "def_plays": 547, "def_yards": 3080, "early_plays": 364, "early_yards": 1919, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856666", "401867984", "401868037", "401868373", "401868374", "401868375" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.1645569620253164, "def_ppd": 1.7160493827160495, "off_ypp": 5.255514705882353, "def_ypp": 5.630712979890311, "early_down_ypp": 5.271978021978022 }, "home": { "off_drives": 63, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 155, "def_points_proxy": 131, "off_plays": 417, "off_yards": 2622, "def_plays": 436, "def_yards": 2650, "early_plays": 300, "early_yards": 2031, "explosive_plays": 35, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866621", "401868336", "401868386", "401868390", "401868391" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.4603174603174605, "def_ppd": 2.1129032258064515, "off_ypp": 6.287769784172662, "def_ypp": 6.077981651376147, "early_down_ypp": 6.77 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2635", "teamName": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868391", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Western Carolina Catamounts", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "E.J. Whitmire Stadium", "address": { "city": "Cullowhee", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "28723", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2717", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "2717", "displayName": "Western Carolina Catamounts" } }, { "id": "2635", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "2635", "displayName": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ttusports.com/sports/fball/2026-27/schedule", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue", "scheduleExplanation": "Official current schedule says Today, with matching opponent and kickoff; retained at current Eastern date." }, { "teamId": "231", "teamName": "Furman Paladins", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868375", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Wofford Terriers at Furman Paladins", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Paladin Stadium", "address": { "city": "Greenville", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29617", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "231", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 25.0, "displayValue": "25" }, "team": { "id": "231", "displayName": "Furman Paladins" } }, { "id": "2747", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 32.0, "displayValue": "32" }, "team": { "id": "2747", "displayName": "Wofford Terriers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.062, "officialScheduleSource": "https://furmanpaladins.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Cookeville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cookeville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1569&textField2=-85.5054&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.163803+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 59. East wind around 10 mph. Saturday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. High near 71. East northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 58. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868376", "matchup": "Furman Paladins at Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401892470", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "New Jersey Devils: Nick Bjugstad Injured Reserve, Jonas Siegenthaler Day-To-Day, Connor Brown Out, Seamus Casey Injured Reserve, Johnathan Kovacevic Injured Reserve | Vancouver Canucks: Jack Thompson Injured Reserve, Akil Thomas Injured Reserve, Mackenzie MacEachern Injured Reserve, Thatcher Demko Injured Reserve, Filip Chytil Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892470", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.956033+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892470", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.956033+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2; home: 82 prior regular / 3 current regular; current weight 0.1304. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: New Jersey Devils; Primary: New Jersey Devils; Tighten Up Conservative ON: New Jersey Devils; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: New Jersey Devils. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 0.46951 to 0.634791. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.1102230246251565 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892470", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.1102230246251565e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.003032873806999, 3.4914103923647932 ], "Primary": [ 2.8703416844625473, 3.5051330084093433 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 03:30 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 3 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020071, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T19:30:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/VAN/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Vancouver Canucks", "previousEventId": "401892461", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Carolina Hurricanes", "previousVenue": { "id": "999", "fullName": "Lenovo Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Raleigh", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Prudential Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "New Jersey Devils", "previousEventId": "401892451", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-06T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Utah Mammoth", "previousVenue": { "id": "1826", "fullName": "Prudential Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Newark", "state": "NJ", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 4, "offDays": 3, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Prudential Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Prudential Center; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401861964", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "UConn Huskies: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Temple Owls: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 34.0175, 26.161666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 33.291666666666664, 26.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.4, 26.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.171666666666667, -0.6716666666666669 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 64, "off_points_proxy": 174, "def_points_proxy": 138, "off_plays": 412, "off_yards": 2632, "def_plays": 484, "def_yards": 2587, "early_plays": 305, "early_yards": 2074, "explosive_plays": 41, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858252", "401858444", "401861962", "401861963", "401861970" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.806451612903226, "def_ppd": 2.15625, "off_ypp": 6.388349514563107, "def_ypp": 5.345041322314049, "early_down_ypp": 6.8 }, "home": { "off_drives": 49, "def_drives": 52, "off_points_proxy": 116, "def_points_proxy": 124, "off_plays": 369, "off_yards": 2373, "def_plays": 408, "def_yards": 2321, "early_plays": 266, "early_yards": 1704, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858442", "401862698", "401862774", "401862779", "401862792" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.36734693877551, "def_ppd": 2.3846153846153846, "off_ypp": 6.430894308943089, "def_ypp": 5.688725490196078, "early_down_ypp": 6.406015037593985 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 5 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Philadelphia&state=PA&site=PHI&textField1=39.9525&textField2=-75.1657&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UConn Huskies", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Temple Owls", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401861964", "matchup": "UConn Huskies at Temple Owls", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "UConn Huskies", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Temple Owls", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UConn Huskies", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Temple Owls", "facts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401866659", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Towson Tigers: QB Andrew Indorf/Jacob Davis, RB Kemarrion Battles/Xavier Pugh/Tristen Kenan, WR Aaron Enterline/Cleveland Charlton/Jashaun Amin, TE CJ Schaeffer/Peyton Faulkner; Stony Brook Seawolves: QB Quinn Boyd, RB CJ Hester/Jeremiah Coney/Dylan Harris, WR Seth Sweitzer/D.J. Linkins/James Dely, TE Rayden Aphayvong", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.325000000000003 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 26.25 ], "currentMatchup": [ 35.983333333333334, 26.733333333333334 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.9083333333333325, -0.40833333333333255 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 67, "off_points_proxy": 179, "def_points_proxy": 153, "off_plays": 474, "off_yards": 2723, "def_plays": 444, "def_yards": 3039, "early_plays": 339, "early_yards": 1775, "explosive_plays": 37, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866413", "401866615", "401866622", "401866634", "401866648" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.8870967741935485, "def_ppd": 2.283582089552239, "off_ypp": 5.744725738396625, "def_ypp": 6.844594594594595, "early_down_ypp": 5.23598820058997 }, "home": { "off_drives": 66, "def_drives": 67, "off_points_proxy": 141, "def_points_proxy": 203, "off_plays": 488, "off_yards": 2716, "def_plays": 484, "def_yards": 3203, "early_plays": 356, "early_yards": 1836, "explosive_plays": 40, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856680", "401862696", "401866532", "401866640", "401866649", "401866651" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.1363636363636362, "def_ppd": 3.029850746268657, "off_ypp": 5.565573770491803, "def_ypp": 6.617768595041323, "early_down_ypp": 5.157303370786517 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "119", "teamName": "Towson Tigers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866651", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Towson Tigers at Monmouth Hawks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Kessler Stadium", "address": { "city": "West Long Branch", "state": "NJ", "zipCode": "07764", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2405", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "2405", "displayName": "Monmouth Hawks" } }, { "id": "119", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 40.0, "displayValue": "40" }, "team": { "id": "119", "displayName": "Towson Tigers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://towsontigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2619", "teamName": "Stony Brook Seawolves", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866648", "date": "2026-09-26T17:00Z", "name": "Stony Brook Seawolves at Fordham Rams", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field", "address": { "city": "Bronx", "state": "NY", "zipCode": "10458", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2230", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "2230", "displayName": "Fordham Rams" } }, { "id": "2619", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2619", "displayName": "Stony Brook Seawolves" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://stonybrookathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Towson. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Towson&state=MD&site=LWX&textField1=39.395&textField2=-76.6213&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.576824+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Tonight A chance of showers, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 8 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401866659", "matchup": "Stony Brook Seawolves at Towson Tigers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868156", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Portland State Vikings: QB John-Keawe Sagapolutele/Gabe Downing, RB Delon Thompson/Niall Raby, WR Terence Loville/Jason Robinson Jr./Darius Bailey, TE Tanner Beaman/Tyson Hunt; Utah Tech Trailblazers: QB Bronson Barben/Deacon Hill, RB Ace Chatman/Kona Crowell/Cavalli Nealy, WR Darnell O'Quinn/Zay Morris/Ja'Kheo Mitchell, TE Justin Buhler", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.43333333333334, 33.88333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.333333333333332, 22.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.1, 33.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.2166666666666672, 0.28333333333333277 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 74, "def_drives": 69, "off_points_proxy": 106, "def_points_proxy": 235, "off_plays": 501, "off_yards": 3013, "def_plays": 473, "def_yards": 3448, "early_plays": 355, "early_yards": 1800, "explosive_plays": 41, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856775", "401868112", "401868118", "401868124", "401868131", "401868160" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.4324324324324325, "def_ppd": 3.4057971014492754, "off_ypp": 6.013972055888224, "def_ypp": 7.289640591966173, "early_down_ypp": 5.070422535211268 }, "home": { "off_drives": 69, "def_drives": 67, "off_points_proxy": 113, "def_points_proxy": 244, "off_plays": 429, "off_yards": 2406, "def_plays": 437, "def_yards": 3560, "early_plays": 305, "early_yards": 1764, "explosive_plays": 34, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858455", "401860879", "401867876", "401868154", "401868155" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.6376811594202898, "def_ppd": 3.6417910447761193, "off_ypp": 5.608391608391608, "def_ypp": 8.14645308924485, "early_down_ypp": 5.783606557377049 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2502", "teamName": "Portland State Vikings", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868155", "date": "2026-09-27T00:00Z", "name": "Portland State Vikings at Weber State Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-27T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Stewart Stadium", "address": { "city": "Ogden", "state": "UT", "zipCode": "84408", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2692", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "2692", "displayName": "Weber State Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2502", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "2502", "displayName": "Portland State Vikings" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 13.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goviks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "3101", "teamName": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868160", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Utah Tech Trailblazers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Greater Zion Stadium", "address": { "city": "Saint George", "state": "UT", "zipCode": "84770", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "3101", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "3101", "displayName": "Utah Tech Trailblazers" } }, { "id": "253", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 46.0, "displayValue": "46" }, "team": { "id": "253", "displayName": "Southern Utah Thunderbirds" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Portland. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Portland&state=OR&site=PQR&textField1=45.5236&textField2=-122.675&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.583848+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 50. Calm wind. Saturday A chance of rain between 8am and 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Light north northwest wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "Base season scoring already mostly reflects Barben and Hill absence. Do not call additional -3 an empirical injury delta or repeat an extra statistical penalty." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868156", "matchup": "Utah Tech Trailblazers at Portland State Vikings", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "names": [ "Deacon Hill" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "source": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/news/2026/10/6/football-trailblazers-hit-the-road-for-saturday-big-sky-match-up-at-portland-state.aspx" } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "Base season scoring already mostly reflects Barben and Hill absence. Do not call additional -3 an empirical injury delta or repeat an extra statistical penalty." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868968", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Prairie View A&M Panthers: QB Tevin Carter, RB Jahbari Kuykendall/Chase Bingmon/Zayvion Turner-Knox, WR Rodny Ojo/Damien McDaniel/Chaney Fitzgerald, TE Travon Jones/Kheagian Heckaman; Southern Jaguars: QB Christian Johnson/Wyatt McCauley, RB Trey Holly/Macario Dade Jr./Mike Franklin, WR Daejawn Smith/Miles Dixon/Floyd Jones, TE Emeka Iloh/Jermaine Minor Jr.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 21.957692307692305, 37.99903846153846 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 17.368589743589745, 33.580128205128204 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.166666666666664, 31.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -4.208974358974359, 5.708974358974359 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 74, "def_drives": 74, "off_points_proxy": 133, "def_points_proxy": 228, "off_plays": 501, "off_yards": 2847, "def_plays": 455, "def_yards": 3461, "early_plays": 348, "early_yards": 2064, "explosive_plays": 43, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856787", "401868324", "401868936", "401868960", "401868970", "401868971" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.7972972972972974, "def_ppd": 3.081081081081081, "off_ypp": 5.682634730538922, "def_ypp": 7.606593406593406, "early_down_ypp": 5.931034482758621 }, "home": { "off_drives": 77, "def_drives": 72, "off_points_proxy": 133, "def_points_proxy": 174, "off_plays": 557, "off_yards": 2965, "def_plays": 467, "def_yards": 2788, "early_plays": 388, "early_yards": 1974, "explosive_plays": 43, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856784", "401868235", "401868307", "401868954", "401868965", "401868967" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.7272727272727273, "def_ppd": 2.4166666666666665, "off_ypp": 5.3231597845601435, "def_ypp": 5.970021413276231, "early_down_ypp": 5.087628865979381 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2504", "teamName": "Prairie View A&M Panthers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868965", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Prairie View A&M Panthers at Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Rice-Totten Stadium", "address": { "city": "Itta Bena", "state": "MS", "zipCode": "38941", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2400", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2400", "displayName": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils" } }, { "id": "2504", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "2504", "displayName": "Prairie View A&M Panthers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://pvpanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2582", "teamName": "Southern Jaguars", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868936", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Southern Jaguars", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "A.W. Mumford Stadium", "address": { "city": "Baton Rouge", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "70807", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2582", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 10.0, "displayValue": "10" }, "team": { "id": "2582", "displayName": "Southern Jaguars" } }, { "id": "2029", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "2029", "displayName": "Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gojagsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Prairie View. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Prairie+View&state=TX&site=HGX&textField1=30.0832&textField2=-95.9891&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.188491+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the morning. Tonight Clear, with a low around 67. South wind around 5 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868968", "matchup": "Southern Jaguars at Prairie View A&M Panthers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401869144", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Lamar Cardinals: QB Aiden McCown/Evan Bullock, RB LaDamion McDowell/Parker Jenkins/Jameer Muhammad, WR Blake Thomas/Brit Simmons/Jaydn Girard, TE Davin Driskell/Justin Neal; Incarnate Word Cardinals: QB Emmett Brown/Jackson Fields, RB Jayden Hibbler/Lontrell Turner/Damashja Harris, WR Isaiah Champagne/Price Morgan/Zach Phipps, TE no primary receiver established", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 26.43051282051282, 29.559871794871796 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.333333333333336, 23.98076923076923 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.1, 30.8 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.6694871794871795, 2.1694871794871795 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 70, "def_drives": 73, "off_points_proxy": 152, "def_points_proxy": 166, "off_plays": 499, "off_yards": 3080, "def_plays": 442, "def_yards": 2759, "early_plays": 359, "early_yards": 2207, "explosive_plays": 45, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401860892", "401868123", "401868309", "401869147", "401913104" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.1714285714285713, "def_ppd": 2.2739726027397262, "off_ypp": 6.1723446893787575, "def_ypp": 6.242081447963801, "early_down_ypp": 6.147632311977716 }, "home": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 60, "off_points_proxy": 128, "def_points_proxy": 107, "off_plays": 359, "off_yards": 2292, "def_plays": 431, "def_yards": 2354, "early_plays": 271, "early_yards": 1728, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868049", "401868093", "401869131", "401869142", "401869143" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.206896551724138, "def_ppd": 1.7833333333333334, "off_ypp": 6.3844011142061285, "def_ypp": 5.461716937354988, "early_down_ypp": 6.376383763837638 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2320", "teamName": "Lamar Cardinals", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401869131", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Northwestern State Demons at Lamar Cardinals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Provost Umphrey Stadium", "address": { "city": "Beaumont", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "77705", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2320", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2320", "displayName": "Lamar Cardinals" } }, { "id": "2466", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2466", "displayName": "Northwestern State Demons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://lamarcardinals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2916", "teamName": "Incarnate Word Cardinals", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868309", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "Incarnate Word Cardinals at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Homer Bryce Stadium", "address": { "city": "Nacogdoches", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "75961", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2617", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2617", "displayName": "Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks" } }, { "id": "2916", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 26.0, "displayValue": "26" }, "team": { "id": "2916", "displayName": "Incarnate Word Cardinals" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://uiwcardinals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Beaumont. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Beaumont&state=TX&site=LCH&textField1=30.0878&textField2=-94.1445&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.713936+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 87. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Tonight Clear, with a low around 64. Calm wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401869144", "matchup": "Incarnate Word Cardinals at Lamar Cardinals", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401892471", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "San Jose Sharks: Adam Gaudette Injured Reserve, Kiefer Sherwood Day-To-Day, Macklin Celebrini Day-To-Day, Alex Barre-Boulet Injured Reserve, Quentin Musty Injured Reserve | Edmonton Oilers: Colton Dach Injured Reserve, Zach Hyman Out, Alec Regula Injured Reserve, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Injured Reserve, Matt Savoie Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892471", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.045798+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892471", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.045798+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Edmonton Oilers; Primary: Edmonton Oilers; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Edmonton Oilers; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Edmonton Oilers. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -0.442066 to -0.241057. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.1546319456101628 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892471", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.1546319456101628e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.5666666666666664, 3.325609756097561 ], "Primary": [ 3.7009864161824293, 3.25891998400651 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 04:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 2 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020072, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T20:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/SJS/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Edmonton Oilers", "previousEventId": "401892456", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Anaheim Ducks", "previousVenue": { "id": "1842", "fullName": "Honda Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Anaheim", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 3, "offDays": 2, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to SAP Center at San Jose; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "San Jose Sharks", "previousEventId": "401891825", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T00:00Z", "previousOpponent": "St. Louis Blues", "previousVenue": { "id": "1839", "fullName": "Enterprise Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Louis", "state": "MO", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to SAP Center at San Jose; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at SAP Center at San Jose; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401856713", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Brandon leads 101 pass attempts and 53 rushes. QB replacement gets one isolated -3, not separate rushing-QB deduction. Davis is OUT with 3 catches/43 yards/2 TD, while Brame has 6/43: primary receiving-TE identity and red-zone redistribution remain unresolved; isolated Davis -3 only if primary-option role confirmed. Gordon 20 carries is behind Bishop 88 and Morris 46; no headcount penalty. | Arkansas Razorbacks: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 39.2575, 28.021666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 37.29166666666667, 30.833333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.599999999999994, 17.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.3116666666666665, -2.8116666666666665 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 176, "def_points_proxy": 70, "off_plays": 462, "off_yards": 2515, "def_plays": 438, "def_yards": 2040, "early_plays": 327, "early_yards": 1970, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856666", "401856681", "401856692", "401856704", "401856710" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.8852459016393444, "def_ppd": 1.1475409836065573, "off_ypp": 5.4437229437229435, "def_ypp": 4.657534246575342, "early_down_ypp": 6.0244648318042815 }, "home": { "off_drives": 55, "def_drives": 55, "off_points_proxy": 98, "def_points_proxy": 142, "off_plays": 451, "off_yards": 2072, "def_plays": 378, "def_yards": 1977, "early_plays": 317, "early_yards": 1221, "explosive_plays": 29, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856635", "401856670", "401856686", "401856697", "401856711" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.7818181818181817, "def_ppd": 2.581818181818182, "off_ypp": 4.594235033259423, "def_ypp": 5.23015873015873, "early_down_ypp": 3.8517350157728707 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 88. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Tonight Clear, with a low around 59. South wind around 5 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fayetteville&state=AR&site=TSA&textField1=36.0718&textField2=-94.1557&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Faizon Brandon", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Ethan Davis", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Ethan Davis" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856713", "matchup": "Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas Razorbacks", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "names": [ "Faizon Brandon" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "names": [ "Ethan Davis" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Faizon Brandon", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Ethan Davis", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Ethan Davis" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401858483", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Dalton has 30 carries/113 yards/3 TD, a material committee workload. Howard has 52 carries, Williams 13 carries/194 yards and is PROBABLE. Six offensive report names do not imply six deductions. | Inniss third receiver 10/147 is DOUBTFUL. McCuin second receiver 17/245 is PROBABLE. Preserve available vs unavailable Inniss branch; no automatic conversion from doubtful to out.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 15.583076923076923, 40.87269230769231 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 15.826923076923077, 30.71153846153846 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.5, 36.2 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -5.9169230769230765, 7.4169230769230765 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 67, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 154, "def_points_proxy": 132, "off_plays": 463, "off_yards": 2810, "def_plays": 420, "def_yards": 2262, "early_plays": 324, "early_yards": 1913, "explosive_plays": 38, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858232", "401858427", "401858444", "401858462", "401858475" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.298507462686567, "def_ppd": 2.1639344262295084, "off_ypp": 6.069114470842333, "def_ypp": 5.385714285714286, "early_down_ypp": 5.904320987654321 }, "home": { "off_drives": 56, "def_drives": 57, "off_points_proxy": 204, "def_points_proxy": 63, "off_plays": 414, "off_yards": 2937, "def_plays": 423, "def_yards": 1858, "early_plays": 311, "early_yards": 2216, "explosive_plays": 37, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856682", "401858432", "401858454", "401858465", "401858473" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.642857142857143, "def_ppd": 1.105263157894737, "off_ypp": 7.094202898550725, "def_ypp": 4.392434988179669, "early_down_ypp": 7.12540192926045 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 58. East wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Columbus&state=OH&site=ILN&textField1=39.9889&textField2=-82.9874&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ohio State Buckeyes", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Brandon Inniss" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858483", "matchup": "Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State Buckeyes", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Maryland Terrapins", "names": [ "Harry Dalton III" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Ohio State Buckeyes", "names": [ "Brandon Inniss" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Ohio State Buckeyes", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Brandon Inniss" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401867877", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Northern Iowa Panthers: QB Jaxon Dailey/Cale McThenia, RB Christian Collins/Caleb Kamara/Michael Bormann, WR Ayden Price/Jaiden Ellis-Lahey/Ben Gordon, TE Zach Mehmert/Kaleb Diers; North Dakota Fighting Hawks: QB Jerry Kaminski/Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson, RB Griffin Broderick/Matt Lawson/Charles Langama, WR Deng Deng/Cameron Weir/Korey Tai, TE Nathan Hromadka/Mason South", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 37.41845238095239, 24.79285714285714 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.839285714285715, 18.55357142857143 ], "currentMatchup": [ 36.75, 27.416666666666664 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.123809523809524, -2.6238095238095243 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 77, "def_drives": 76, "off_points_proxy": 233, "def_points_proxy": 168, "off_plays": 532, "off_yards": 3603, "def_plays": 495, "def_yards": 2858, "early_plays": 404, "early_yards": 2799, "explosive_plays": 53, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858452", "401867858", "401867869", "401867874", "401867875", "401867876" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 3.0259740259740258, "def_ppd": 2.210526315789474, "off_ypp": 6.772556390977444, "def_ypp": 5.773737373737374, "early_down_ypp": 6.928217821782178 }, "home": { "off_drives": 43, "def_drives": 44, "off_points_proxy": 101, "def_points_proxy": 126, "off_plays": 302, "off_yards": 1668, "def_plays": 345, "def_yards": 2123, "early_plays": 226, "early_yards": 1249, "explosive_plays": 24, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858471", "401867847", "401868085", "401868255" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.3488372093023258, "def_ppd": 2.8636363636363638, "off_ypp": 5.52317880794702, "def_ypp": 6.153623188405797, "early_down_ypp": 5.5265486725663715 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2460", "teamName": "Northern Iowa Panthers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867847", "date": "2026-09-26T21:00Z", "name": "Illinois State Redbirds at Northern Iowa Panthers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "UNI-Dome", "address": { "city": "Cedar Falls", "state": "IA", "zipCode": "50614", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2460", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2460", "displayName": "Northern Iowa Panthers" } }, { "id": "2287", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2287", "displayName": "Illinois State Redbirds" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://unipanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "155", "teamName": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867869", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Murray State Racers at North Dakota Fighting Hawks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Alerus Center", "address": { "city": "Grand Forks", "state": "ND", "zipCode": "58201", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "155", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 55.0, "displayValue": "55" }, "team": { "id": "155", "displayName": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks" } }, { "id": "93", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "93", "displayName": "Murray State Racers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://fightinghawks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Cedar Falls. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Cedar%20Falls%2C%20IA", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.718998+00:00", "status": "indoor", "currentForecast": "Enclosed venue; field weather effect not applied. Travel conditions unestimated.", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401867877", "matchup": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Northern Iowa Panthers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868115", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: QB Ty Pennington/Donivan Dixon, RB Quran Gossett/Kenveon Stone/Lindsey Graves, WR Joey Stout/Myseth Currie/Darius Haskin, TE Jeter Purdy/Nassim Isaac; Montana Grizzlies: QB Keali'i Ah Yat/Luke Flowers, RB Eli Gillman/Chase Cook/Dylan Paine, WR Brooks Davis/Landon Ransom-Goelz/Ian Finch, TE Reese Brooks/Mariano Birdno", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 37.97532051282051, 25.975 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 36.394230769230774, 27.794871794871796 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.916666666666664, 24.916666666666668 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.319871794871794, -1.8198717948717942 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 76, "def_drives": 73, "off_points_proxy": 222, "def_points_proxy": 135, "off_plays": 497, "off_yards": 3364, "def_plays": 548, "def_yards": 3141, "early_plays": 368, "early_yards": 2435, "explosive_plays": 42, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401860886", "401868110", "401868111", "401868112", "401868113", "401868114" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.9210526315789473, "def_ppd": 1.8493150684931507, "off_ypp": 6.768611670020121, "def_ypp": 5.731751824817518, "early_down_ypp": 6.616847826086956 }, "home": { "off_drives": 73, "def_drives": 76, "off_points_proxy": 145, "def_points_proxy": 173, "off_plays": 489, "off_yards": 2851, "def_plays": 536, "def_yards": 3424, "early_plays": 353, "early_yards": 2199, "explosive_plays": 41, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856773", "401868084", "401868104", "401868120", "401868123", "401868124" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.9863013698630136, "def_ppd": 2.276315789473684, "off_ypp": 5.830265848670757, "def_ypp": 6.388059701492537, "early_down_ypp": 6.229461756373937 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2464", "teamName": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868104", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Idaho State Bengals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "ICCU Dome", "address": { "city": "Pocatello", "state": "ID", "zipCode": "83201", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "304", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "304", "displayName": "Idaho State Bengals" } }, { "id": "2464", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "2464", "displayName": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.875, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nauathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "149", "teamName": "Montana Grizzlies", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868114", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Northern Colorado Bears at Montana Grizzlies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Washington-Grizzly Stadium", "address": { "city": "Missoula", "state": "MT", "zipCode": "59812", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "149", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 36.0, "displayValue": "36" }, "team": { "id": "149", "displayName": "Montana Grizzlies" } }, { "id": "2458", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2458", "displayName": "Northern Colorado Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gogriz.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Flagstaff. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Flagstaff%2C%20AZ", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.718998+00:00", "status": "indoor", "currentForecast": "Enclosed venue; field weather effect not applied. Travel conditions unestimated.", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868115", "matchup": "Montana Grizzlies at Northern Arizona Lumberjacks", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868955", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Grambling Tigers: QB Jacobe Robinson/Ashton Frye, RB D'Shuan Ford/Jamarion Parker/Byron Eaton Jr., WR Jordan Bride/Tyson George/Nae'Saan Dickerson, TE Patrick Williams II/Davon Mitchell; Jackson State Tigers: QB Jared Lockhart, RB Nate Blount IV/Emari Matthews/Li'Darius Pryor, WR Nate Rembert/Jabari Jones/Kobe Paul, TE Jency Riley Jr.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 37.167500000000004, 24.91166666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 29.458333333333336, 21.416666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 37.5, 27.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.6883333333333335, -2.1883333333333335 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 57, "off_points_proxy": 185, "def_points_proxy": 83, "off_plays": 433, "off_yards": 3344, "def_plays": 426, "def_yards": 2278, "early_plays": 319, "early_yards": 2383, "explosive_plays": 48, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868194", "401868295", "401868958", "401868959", "401868960" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.0833333333333335, "def_ppd": 1.456140350877193, "off_ypp": 7.722863741339492, "def_ypp": 5.347417840375587, "early_down_ypp": 7.470219435736677 }, "home": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 65, "off_points_proxy": 167, "def_points_proxy": 181, "off_plays": 410, "off_yards": 2716, "def_plays": 407, "def_yards": 2885, "early_plays": 307, "early_yards": 1892, "explosive_plays": 38, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856789", "401868359", "401868952", "401868953", "401868954" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.783333333333333, "def_ppd": 2.7846153846153845, "off_ypp": 6.624390243902439, "def_ypp": 7.0884520884520885, "early_down_ypp": 6.162866449511401 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2755", "teamName": "Grambling Tigers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868359", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Alcorn State Braves at Grambling Tigers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Eddie G. Robinson Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Grambling", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "71245", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2755", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 63.0, "displayValue": "63" }, "team": { "id": "2755", "displayName": "Grambling Tigers" } }, { "id": "2016", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 59.0, "displayValue": "59" }, "team": { "id": "2016", "displayName": "Alcorn State Braves" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.083, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gsutigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2296", "teamName": "Jackson State Tigers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868295", "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "name": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs at Jackson State Tigers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Ladd-Peebles Stadium", "address": { "city": "Mobile", "state": "AL", "zipCode": "36604", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2296", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2296", "displayName": "Jackson State Tigers" } }, { "id": "2010", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2010", "displayName": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gojsutigers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Grambling. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Grambling&state=LA&site=SHV&textField1=32.527&textField2=-92.7116&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.718998+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 88. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 62. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph after midnight. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868955", "matchup": "Jackson State Tigers at Grambling Tigers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401916277", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official October9 weigh-in list matches12bout card. Souza117, Bonfim163.5 and Ribeiro208.5 missed their class limits; their respective purse deductions are20%,25%,20%. These are weigh-in facts, not measured performance penalties. No team-trade pathway applies to independent UFC bouts." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official Meta APEX card: preliminaries5pmET, maincard8pmET; main event5rounds, others3. Segment start is not each bout start." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor Meta APEX; outdoor weather not a cage-score adjustment." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401924511", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official October9 weigh-in list matches12bout card. Souza117, Bonfim163.5 and Ribeiro208.5 missed their class limits; their respective purse deductions are20%,25%,20%. These are weigh-in facts, not measured performance penalties. No team-trade pathway applies to independent UFC bouts." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official Meta APEX card: preliminaries5pmET, maincard8pmET; main event5rounds, others3. Segment start is not each bout start." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor Meta APEX; outdoor weather not a cage-score adjustment." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401924512", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official October9 weigh-in list matches12bout card. Souza117, Bonfim163.5 and Ribeiro208.5 missed their class limits; their respective purse deductions are20%,25%,20%. These are weigh-in facts, not measured performance penalties. No team-trade pathway applies to independent UFC bouts." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official Meta APEX card: preliminaries5pmET, maincard8pmET; main event5rounds, others3. Segment start is not each bout start." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor Meta APEX; outdoor weather not a cage-score adjustment." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401927417", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official October9 weigh-in list matches12bout card. Souza117, Bonfim163.5 and Ribeiro208.5 missed their class limits; their respective purse deductions are20%,25%,20%. These are weigh-in facts, not measured performance penalties. No team-trade pathway applies to independent UFC bouts." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official Meta APEX card: preliminaries5pmET, maincard8pmET; main event5rounds, others3. Segment start is not each bout start." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor Meta APEX; outdoor weather not a cage-score adjustment." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401927418", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official October9 weigh-in list matches12bout card. Souza117, Bonfim163.5 and Ribeiro208.5 missed their class limits; their respective purse deductions are20%,25%,20%. These are weigh-in facts, not measured performance penalties. No team-trade pathway applies to independent UFC bouts." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official Meta APEX card: preliminaries5pmET, maincard8pmET; main event5rounds, others3. Segment start is not each bout start." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor Meta APEX; outdoor weather not a cage-score adjustment." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401927419", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official October9 weigh-in list matches12bout card. Souza117, Bonfim163.5 and Ribeiro208.5 missed their class limits; their respective purse deductions are20%,25%,20%. These are weigh-in facts, not measured performance penalties. No team-trade pathway applies to independent UFC bouts." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official Meta APEX card: preliminaries5pmET, maincard8pmET; main event5rounds, others3. Segment start is not each bout start." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor Meta APEX; outdoor weather not a cage-score adjustment." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401927420", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official October9 weigh-in list matches12bout card. Souza117, Bonfim163.5 and Ribeiro208.5 missed their class limits; their respective purse deductions are20%,25%,20%. These are weigh-in facts, not measured performance penalties. No team-trade pathway applies to independent UFC bouts." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official Meta APEX card: preliminaries5pmET, maincard8pmET; main event5rounds, others3. Segment start is not each bout start." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor Meta APEX; outdoor weather not a cage-score adjustment." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401860902", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "San Diego State Aztecs: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Oregon State Beavers: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 26.144166666666667, 33.82666666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.041666666666668, 15.375 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.1, 32.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.5733333333333335, 0.9266666666666665 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 64, "def_drives": 65, "off_points_proxy": 119, "def_points_proxy": 136, "off_plays": 405, "off_yards": 2351, "def_plays": 478, "def_yards": 2812, "early_plays": 286, "early_yards": 1683, "explosive_plays": 31, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858443", "401860879", "401860887", "401860893", "401860900" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.859375, "def_ppd": 2.0923076923076924, "off_ypp": 5.8049382716049385, "def_ypp": 5.882845188284519, "early_down_ypp": 5.884615384615385 }, "home": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 187, "def_points_proxy": 121, "off_plays": 436, "off_yards": 3034, "def_plays": 447, "def_yards": 2319, "early_plays": 323, "early_yards": 2233, "explosive_plays": 43, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856778", "401856783", "401860886", "401860895", "401860899" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.169491525423729, "def_ppd": 2.086206896551724, "off_ypp": 6.958715596330276, "def_ypp": 5.1879194630872485, "early_down_ypp": 6.913312693498452 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. Calm wind. Saturday Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 61. Light and variable wind. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph after midnight. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Corvallis&state=OR&site=PQR&textField1=44.5647&textField2=-123.261&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "San Diego State Aztecs", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Oregon State Beavers", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401860902", "matchup": "San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State Beavers", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "San Diego State Aztecs", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Oregon State Beavers", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "San Diego State Aztecs", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Oregon State Beavers", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868078", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Idaho State Bengals: QB Jordan Cooke/Davis Harsin, RB Tytan Mason/Robert Freeman IV, WR Chedon James/Julian Mason/Zedekiah Anahu-Ambrosio, TE no primary receiver established; Cal Poly Mustangs: QB Anthony Grigsby Jr./Lucas Razore, RB Jaden Green/Misa Paiau/Koen Glover, WR Tayvion McCoy/Ray Hall/Fidel Pitts, TE Luke Leighton/Alek Marshall", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.72, 37.36333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.375, 32.25 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.766666666666666, 34.166666666666664 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -2.6550000000000002, 4.155 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 70, "def_drives": 72, "off_points_proxy": 183, "def_points_proxy": 187, "off_plays": 512, "off_yards": 3356, "def_plays": 556, "def_yards": 3573, "early_plays": 372, "early_yards": 2325, "explosive_plays": 55, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401864504", "401868073", "401868074", "401868075", "401868076", "401868077" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.6142857142857143, "def_ppd": 2.5972222222222223, "off_ypp": 6.5546875, "def_ypp": 6.426258992805756, "early_down_ypp": 6.25 }, "home": { "off_drives": 65, "def_drives": 67, "off_points_proxy": 171, "def_points_proxy": 113, "off_plays": 422, "off_yards": 2974, "def_plays": 476, "def_yards": 2770, "early_plays": 300, "early_yards": 2022, "explosive_plays": 41, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401860880", "401868101", "401868102", "401868103", "401868104" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.6307692307692307, "def_ppd": 1.6865671641791045, "off_ypp": 7.04739336492891, "def_ypp": 5.819327731092437, "early_down_ypp": 6.74 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "304", "teamName": "Idaho State Bengals", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868104", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Idaho State Bengals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "ICCU Dome", "address": { "city": "Pocatello", "state": "ID", "zipCode": "83201", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "304", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "304", "displayName": "Idaho State Bengals" } }, { "id": "2464", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "2464", "displayName": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://isubengals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "13", "teamName": "Cal Poly Mustangs", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868077", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Weber State Wildcats at Cal Poly Mustangs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 6, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final/2OT", "shortDetail": "Final/2OT", "altDetail": "2OT" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Luis Obispo", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "93405", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "13", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "13", "displayName": "Cal Poly Mustangs" } }, { "id": "2692", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2692", "displayName": "Weber State Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.917, "officialScheduleSource": "https://gopoly.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Pocatello. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Pocatello%2C%20ID", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.718998+00:00", "status": "indoor", "currentForecast": "Enclosed venue; field weather effect not applied. Travel conditions unestimated.", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868078", "matchup": "Cal Poly Mustangs at Idaho State Bengals", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868144", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Eastern Kentucky Colonels: QB Jordyn Potts/Blake Kendall Jr., RB Brady Hensley/Brayden Latham/Cortez Stone, WR Elijah Caldwell/Jackson House/Jarvis Hayes, TE Caeleb Schlachter/Jakobie Hughes; West Georgia Wolves: QB Colton Fitzgerald/Luke Marble, RB Justin Montgomery/Christian Monfort/Naeem Odeniyi, WR Brody Jones/DK Daniel/Malik Leverett, TE Josh Schuchts/Colby Dixon", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 25.376060606060605, 25.143636363636364 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.939393939393938, 20.257575757575758 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.1, 24.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.8563636363636367, 0.6436363636363633 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 86, "def_points_proxy": 146, "off_plays": 419, "off_yards": 2037, "def_plays": 406, "def_yards": 2301, "early_plays": 288, "early_yards": 1446, "explosive_plays": 30, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401864425", "401868240", "401868241", "401868242", "401868243" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.3870967741935485, "def_ppd": 2.5172413793103448, "off_ypp": 4.861575178997613, "def_ypp": 5.667487684729064, "early_down_ypp": 5.020833333333333 }, "home": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 59, "off_points_proxy": 82, "def_points_proxy": 141, "off_plays": 411, "off_yards": 2455, "def_plays": 398, "def_yards": 2244, "early_plays": 296, "early_yards": 1688, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868139", "401868140", "401868141", "401868142", "401868143" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.4137931034482758, "def_ppd": 2.389830508474576, "off_ypp": 5.97323600973236, "def_ypp": 5.63819095477387, "early_down_ypp": 5.702702702702703 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2198", "teamName": "Eastern Kentucky Colonels", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868143", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "North Alabama Lions at Eastern Kentucky Colonels", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Roy Kidd Stadium", "address": { "city": "Richmond", "state": "KY", "zipCode": "40475", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2198", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 16.0, "displayValue": "16" }, "team": { "id": "2198", "displayName": "Eastern Kentucky Colonels" } }, { "id": "2453", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "2453", "displayName": "North Alabama Lions" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ekusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2698", "teamName": "West Georgia Wolves", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868243", "date": "2026-09-26T22:00Z", "name": "Fort Valley State Wildcats at West Georgia Wolves", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "University Stadium (GA)", "address": { "city": "Carrollton", "state": "GA", "zipCode": "30117", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2698", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 49.0, "displayValue": "49" }, "team": { "id": "2698", "displayName": "West Georgia Wolves" } }, { "id": "2232", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "2232", "displayName": "Fort Valley State Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://uwgathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Richmond. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Richmond&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=37.7428&textField2=-84.2936&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.718998+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 68. East wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 1am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. East wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868144", "matchup": "West Georgia Wolves at Eastern Kentucky Colonels", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401891805", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Florida Panthers: Brad Marchand Out, Aleksander Barkov Injured Reserve, Jonah Gadjovich Injured Reserve | Minnesota Wild: Filip Gustavsson Injured Reserve, Nick Foligno Injured Reserve, Olli Maatta Day-To-Day, Brock Faber Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401891805", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.990735+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401891805", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.990735+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Minnesota Wild; Primary: Minnesota Wild; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Minnesota Wild; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Minnesota Wild. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -0.37195 to -0.086462. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.0658141036401503 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401891805", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.0658141036401503e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.080386178861789, 2.928252032520325 ], "Primary": [ 3.1246006311698076, 3.038138671682006 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 06:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 3 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020073, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T22:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/MIN/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Minnesota Wild", "previousEventId": "401892460", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "previousVenue": { "id": "1396", "fullName": "Benchmark International Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Tampa", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Amerant Bank Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Florida Panthers", "previousEventId": "401891806", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-07T02:20Z", "previousOpponent": "Los Angeles Kings", "previousVenue": { "id": "1841", "fullName": "crypto.com Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 4, "offDays": 3, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Amerant Bank Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Amerant Bank Arena; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401902645", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Toronto Raptors: Kawhi Leonard Day-To-Day, Trayce Jackson-Davis Day-To-Day, Jamison Battle Day-To-Day, Allen Graves Day-To-Day, Nate Bittle Day-To-Day | LA Clippers: Kobe Sanders Day-To-Day, Bradley Beal Day-To-Day, Max Strus Out, Yanic Konan Niederhauser Out, Brandon Ingram Out. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Preseason DTD/rest decisions may materially reshape minutes; normalized 240 minute examples are sensitivity only.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.155806+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.326024+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.155806+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.326024+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0; home: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0. Primary training games=2796. Classic/current preseason excludes exhibitions from regular baseline; Primary explicitly models preseason with 0.35 training weight. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NBA.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Toronto Raptors; Primary: Toronto Raptors; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Toronto Raptors; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Toronto Raptors. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 0.847563 to 3.847561. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.1368683772161603 e-13. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401902645", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 111.28658536585365, 115.13414634146342 ], "Primary": [ 110.56402571587643, 111.78662743439084 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "2026-27 preseason verified NBA.com; official start 2026-10-10 06:30 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 5 whole off days; home 6 whole off days. Canada Games at Rogers Arena,Vancouver, not Toronto home arena; NBA and ESPN both designate Raptors home and neutral=false. Registered venue term preserved with this limitation disclosed.", "official": { "id": "0012600015", "startUTC": "2026-10-10T22:30:00Z", "source": "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10", "stage": "Preseason", "isNeutral": false }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "LA Clippers", "previousEventId": "401918010", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-04T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Golden State Warriors", "previousVenue": { "id": "540", "fullName": "Stan Sheriff Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Honolulu", "state": "HI" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 6, "offDays": 5, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Rogers Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Toronto Raptors", "previousEventId": "401902644", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Miami Heat", "previousVenue": { "id": "5056", "fullName": "Videotron Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Quebec City", "state": "PQ" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 7, "offDays": 6, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Rogers Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": " Canada Games at Rogers Arena,Vancouver, not Toronto home arena; NBA and ESPN bothdesignate Raptors home and neutral=false. Registered venue term preserved with this limitation disclosed." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Rogers Arena; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401856715", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Green is a primary receiving TE with 14 catches/222 yards, third in total receiving yards. Replacement routes need confirmation; receiver redistribution rather than nominal TE substitution may carry opportunity. Do not treat this candidate list as confirmed depth chart. | Kentucky Wildcats: current report contains 0 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.41416666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.125, 20.666666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 35.2, 24.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.751666666666667, -1.251666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 64, "def_drives": 66, "off_points_proxy": 211, "def_points_proxy": 68, "off_plays": 495, "off_yards": 3211, "def_plays": 384, "def_yards": 1680, "early_plays": 370, "early_yards": 2163, "explosive_plays": 43, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856660", "401856688", "401856702", "401856706", "401867796" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.296875, "def_ppd": 1.0303030303030303, "off_ypp": 6.486868686868687, "def_ypp": 4.375, "early_down_ypp": 5.845945945945946 }, "home": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 165, "def_points_proxy": 127, "off_plays": 415, "off_yards": 2587, "def_plays": 444, "def_yards": 2244, "early_plays": 306, "early_yards": 2013, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856659", "401856674", "401856694", "401856709", "401864576" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.75, "def_ppd": 2.189655172413793, "off_ypp": 6.233734939759036, "def_ypp": 5.054054054054054, "early_down_ypp": 6.578431372549019 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 70. East wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lexington&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=38.0427&textField2=-84.4595&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856715", "matchup": "LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "LSU Tigers", "names": [ "Trey'Dez Green" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [] }, { "eventId": "401862798", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "UAB Blazers: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Memphis Tigers: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 20.506666666666668, 39.160000000000004 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.458333333333336, 36.41666666666667 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.2, 31.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.9516666666666667, 5.451666666666666 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 51, "def_drives": 54, "off_points_proxy": 113, "def_points_proxy": 103, "off_plays": 412, "off_yards": 2626, "def_plays": 386, "def_yards": 1976, "early_plays": 279, "early_yards": 1524, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858424", "401862708", "401862776", "401862778", "401862793" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.215686274509804, "def_ppd": 1.9074074074074074, "off_ypp": 6.37378640776699, "def_ypp": 5.119170984455959, "early_down_ypp": 5.462365591397849 }, "home": { "off_drives": 57, "def_drives": 56, "off_points_proxy": 193, "def_points_proxy": 104, "off_plays": 405, "off_yards": 3216, "def_plays": 403, "def_yards": 2228, "early_plays": 317, "early_yards": 2466, "explosive_plays": 46, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401860881", "401862693", "401862695", "401862772", "401862787" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.3859649122807016, "def_ppd": 1.8571428571428572, "off_ypp": 7.940740740740741, "def_ypp": 5.528535980148884, "early_down_ypp": 7.779179810725552 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight Cloudy, with a low around 64. East wind around 5 mph. Saturday Showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 72. Breezy, with an east wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northeast 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Night A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. North wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Memphis&state=TN&site=MEG&textField1=35.1056&textField2=-90.007&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UAB Blazers", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Memphis Tigers", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401862798", "matchup": "UAB Blazers at Memphis Tigers", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "UAB Blazers", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Memphis Tigers", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UAB Blazers", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Memphis Tigers", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401864517", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Nevada Wolf Pack: current report contains 0 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Colson 77 attempts and 67 rushes is principal QB; Jones 40 carries/196 yards is material RB. Both QUESTIONABLE in Thursday initial report. Raymond Moore III has 18 attempts and 33 carries/294 yards; Braesen Leon has one attempt. Actual starting replacement remains unconfirmed. If both unavailable, separate QB passing and RB carry pathways support -6 human sensitivity; no extra deduction for QB rushing.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 31.679166666666667, 24.4 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.0, 25.416666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 34.325, 20.325 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.516666666666667, -1.016666666666667 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 45, "def_drives": 46, "off_points_proxy": 109, "def_points_proxy": 98, "off_plays": 306, "off_yards": 1908, "def_plays": 375, "def_yards": 1934, "early_plays": 221, "early_yards": 1342, "explosive_plays": 29, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401864432", "401864443", "401864500", "401864509" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.422222222222222, "def_ppd": 2.130434782608696, "off_ypp": 6.235294117647059, "def_ypp": 5.157333333333334, "early_down_ypp": 6.072398190045249 }, "home": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 56, "off_points_proxy": 76, "def_points_proxy": 178, "off_plays": 360, "off_yards": 1912, "def_plays": 400, "def_yards": 2514, "early_plays": 259, "early_yards": 1124, "explosive_plays": 24, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856664", "401858450", "401860895", "401864505", "401864514" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.3103448275862069, "def_ppd": 3.1785714285714284, "off_ypp": 5.311111111111111, "def_ypp": 6.285, "early_down_ypp": 4.33976833976834 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 87. South southeast wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. South southeast wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=El+Paso&state=TX&site=EPZ&textField1=31.8493&textField2=-106.438&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UTEP Miners", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: EJ Colson Jr., Tavorus Jones" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401864517", "matchup": "Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP Miners", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "UTEP Miners", "names": [ "EJ Colson Jr.", "Tavorus Jones" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "UTEP Miners", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: EJ Colson Jr., Tavorus Jones" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401864518", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "North Dakota State Bison: current report contains 8 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | UNLV Rebels: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 36.120769230769234, 21.62153846153846 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 34.96153846153847, 24.46153846153846 ], "currentMatchup": [ 28.6, 17.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 4.340000000000001, -2.8400000000000007 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 52, "def_drives": 54, "off_points_proxy": 146, "def_points_proxy": 45, "off_plays": 416, "off_yards": 2478, "def_plays": 388, "def_yards": 1665, "early_plays": 281, "early_yards": 1435, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401864499", "401864502", "401864507", "401864515", "401864577" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.8076923076923075, "def_ppd": 0.8333333333333334, "off_ypp": 5.956730769230769, "def_ypp": 4.291237113402062, "early_down_ypp": 5.106761565836299 }, "home": { "off_drives": 63, "def_drives": 63, "off_points_proxy": 117, "def_points_proxy": 118, "off_plays": 433, "off_yards": 2281, "def_plays": 431, "def_yards": 2746, "early_plays": 300, "early_yards": 1556, "explosive_plays": 28, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858247", "401862693", "401862705", "401864497", "401864512" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.8571428571428572, "def_ppd": 1.873015873015873, "off_ypp": 5.267898383371825, "def_ypp": 6.3712296983758705, "early_down_ypp": 5.1866666666666665 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor venue; field weather not applied. Travel effects unestimated.", "source": null, "status": "INDOOR" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401864518", "matchup": "North Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [] }, { "eventId": "401868065", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Austin Peay Governors: QB Chris Parson/Matthew Wilson, RB Courtland Simmons/Corey Richardson/Isaiah Groves, WR Marvin Sims/Jaden Robinson/Denver Harper, TE Jackson Head/Ben Marshall; Tarleton State Texans: QB Kaden Anderson/Braedyn Locke, RB Miequle Brock/Bryce Green/Aiden Ramos, WR Cydd Ford/B.J. Fleming/Bryce Parker, TE Danny Joiner/Klein Essler", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.273589743589746, 29.270641025641027 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 35.705128205128204, 26.541666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 27.78333333333333, 29.3 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.5293589743589746, -0.02935897435897461 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 56, "off_points_proxy": 190, "def_points_proxy": 106, "off_plays": 396, "off_yards": 3083, "def_plays": 448, "def_yards": 2818, "early_plays": 302, "early_yards": 2386, "explosive_plays": 49, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401866410", "401867688", "401868235", "401868236", "401868237" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.2203389830508473, "def_ppd": 1.8928571428571428, "off_ypp": 7.7853535353535355, "def_ypp": 6.290178571428571, "early_down_ypp": 7.900662251655629 }, "home": { "off_drives": 68, "def_drives": 71, "off_points_proxy": 186, "def_points_proxy": 95, "off_plays": 418, "off_yards": 2964, "def_plays": 508, "def_yards": 2764, "early_plays": 307, "early_yards": 2171, "explosive_plays": 46, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856669", "401868060", "401868061", "401868062", "401868063", "401868064" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.735294117647059, "def_ppd": 1.3380281690140845, "off_ypp": 7.090909090909091, "def_ypp": 5.440944881889764, "early_down_ypp": 7.071661237785016 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2046", "teamName": "Austin Peay Governors", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868064", "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "name": "New Haven Chargers at Austin Peay Governors", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Fortera Stadium", "address": { "city": "Clarksville", "state": "TN", "zipCode": "37040", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2046", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2046", "displayName": "Austin Peay Governors" } }, { "id": "2441", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 17.0, "displayValue": "17" }, "team": { "id": "2441", "displayName": "New Haven Chargers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.083, "officialScheduleSource": "https://letsgopeay.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2627", "teamName": "Tarleton State Texans", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867688", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Chicago State Cougars at Tarleton State Texans", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Tarleton Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Stephenville", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "76401", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2627", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 56.0, "displayValue": "56" }, "team": { "id": "2627", "displayName": "Tarleton State Texans" } }, { "id": "2130", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2130", "displayName": "Chicago State Cougars" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://tarletonsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Clarksville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clarksville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.5611&textField2=-87.3473&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.743778+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight Cloudy, with a low around 61. East northeast wind around 5 mph. Saturday A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. High near 68. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northeast 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then showers likely. Low around 58. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868065", "matchup": "Tarleton State Texans at Austin Peay Governors", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868087", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Eastern Washington Eagles: QB Nate Bell/Kaden Rolfsness, RB Jaxon Bell/Kevin Allen III/Malik Dotson, WR Drew Carlson/Rylin Lang/Wesley Garrett, TE Kayden Stuit/Will McKissick; Northern Colorado Bears: QB Brayten Silbor/Kenny Lueth, RB Justin Guin/Brandon Lambert Jr./Kieryus Boone, WR Trey Olsen/Jordan Herron/Garrett Harstad, TE no primary receiver established", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.541666666666664 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.208333333333336, 25.916666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.5, 26.666666666666664 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.6250000000000004, 0.8749999999999996 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 67, "def_drives": 68, "off_points_proxy": 136, "def_points_proxy": 154, "off_plays": 520, "off_yards": 2881, "def_plays": 481, "def_yards": 2908, "early_plays": 373, "early_yards": 1849, "explosive_plays": 43, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401864506", "401867883", "401868114", "401868129", "401868130", "401868131" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.029850746268657, "def_ppd": 2.264705882352941, "off_ypp": 5.540384615384616, "def_ypp": 6.045738045738045, "early_down_ypp": 4.957104557640751 }, "home": { "off_drives": 77, "def_drives": 72, "off_points_proxy": 177, "def_points_proxy": 223, "off_plays": 588, "off_yards": 3476, "def_plays": 486, "def_yards": 3610, "early_plays": 430, "early_yards": 2422, "explosive_plays": 56, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858459", "401867884", "401868076", "401868084", "401868085", "401868086" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 2.2987012987012987, "def_ppd": 3.0972222222222223, "off_ypp": 5.91156462585034, "def_ypp": 7.42798353909465, "early_down_ypp": 5.632558139534884 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "331", "teamName": "Eastern Washington Eagles", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868086", "date": "2026-10-04T02:30Z", "name": "Eastern Washington Eagles at UC Davis Aggies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T02:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "UC Davis Health Stadium", "address": { "city": "Davis", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "95616", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "302", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 49.0, "displayValue": "49" }, "team": { "id": "302", "displayName": "UC Davis Aggies" } }, { "id": "331", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 38.0, "displayValue": "38" }, "team": { "id": "331", "displayName": "Eastern Washington Eagles" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.854, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goeags.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2458", "teamName": "Northern Colorado Bears", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868114", "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "name": "Northern Colorado Bears at Montana Grizzlies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Washington-Grizzly Stadium", "address": { "city": "Missoula", "state": "MT", "zipCode": "59812", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "149", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 36.0, "displayValue": "36" }, "team": { "id": "149", "displayName": "Montana Grizzlies" } }, { "id": "2458", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 14.0, "displayValue": "14" }, "team": { "id": "2458", "displayName": "Northern Colorado Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://uncbears.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Cheney. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cheney&state=WA&site=OTX&textField1=47.4875&textField2=-117.575&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.923766+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight Mostly clear, with a steady temperature around 40. Southwest wind around 8 mph. Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers after 11am. Areas of frost between 7am and 8am. Snow level 3400 feet rising to 4700 feet in the afternoon. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 55. South wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Saturday Night A 20 percent chance of showers before 11pm. Snow level 4800 feet lowering to 2500 feet after midnight . Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. Light north wind becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868087", "matchup": "Northern Colorado Bears at Eastern Washington Eagles", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401869943", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Hinton second receiving yards 10/220 and four TD; QUESTIONABLE creates two scenarios without assigning an availability probability. | Marshall Thundering Herd: current report contains 0 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.001666666666665, 29.365 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 32.33333333333333 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.9, 23.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.10166666666666693, 1.398333333333333 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 64, "off_points_proxy": 117, "def_points_proxy": 124, "off_plays": 408, "off_yards": 2333, "def_plays": 420, "def_yards": 2465, "early_plays": 290, "early_yards": 1735, "explosive_plays": 33, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856780", "401868008", "401869940", "401869941", "401869942" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.9830508474576272, "def_ppd": 1.9375, "off_ypp": 5.7181372549019605, "def_ypp": 5.869047619047619, "early_down_ypp": 5.982758620689655 }, "home": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 54, "off_points_proxy": 105, "def_points_proxy": 162, "off_plays": 455, "off_yards": 2765, "def_plays": 422, "def_yards": 3020, "early_plays": 327, "early_yards": 1838, "explosive_plays": 40, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858434", "401868188", "401869962", "401871045", "401871047" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.6935483870967742, "def_ppd": 3.0, "off_ypp": 6.076923076923077, "def_ypp": 7.156398104265403, "early_down_ypp": 5.620795107033639 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 71. East wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 58. East wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntington&state=WV&site=RLX&textField1=38.413&textField2=-82.4338&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Colton Hinton" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401869943", "matchup": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering Herd", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "names": [ "Colton Hinton" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Colton Hinton" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401892472", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Buffalo Sabres: Jason Zucker Injured Reserve, Alex Lyon Injured Reserve, Conor Timmins Injured Reserve, Topias Leinonen Injured Reserve, Jack Rathbone Injured Reserve | Utah Mammoth: Michael Carcone Day-To-Day, Maveric Lamoureux Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892472", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.970281+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892472", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.970281+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Buffalo Sabres; Primary: Buffalo Sabres; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Buffalo Sabres; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Buffalo Sabres. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 0.09146 to 0.262041. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 9.325873406851315 e-15. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892472", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 9.325873406851315e-15, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.104410569105691, 3.2224796747967477 ], "Primary": [ 3.1344478391434594, 3.3964888999403366 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020074, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/UTA/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Utah Mammoth", "previousEventId": "401892457", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Boston Bruins", "previousVenue": { "id": "1824", "fullName": "TD Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Boston", "state": "MA", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to KeyBank Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Buffalo Sabres", "previousEventId": "401892458", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Dallas Stars", "previousVenue": { "id": "1848", "fullName": "KeyBank Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Buffalo", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to KeyBank Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at KeyBank Center; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401892473", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Montreal Canadiens: Sam Montembeault Out, Oliver Kapanen Day-To-Day, Ivan Demidov Injured Reserve, Kaiden Guhle Injured Reserve, Bryce Pickford Injured Reserve | Detroit Red Wings: J.T. Compher Injured Reserve, Mason Appleton Injured Reserve, Marco Kasper Injured Reserve, Simon Edvinsson Out. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892473", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.221284+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892473", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.221284+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Montreal Canadiens; Primary: Montreal Canadiens; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Montreal Canadiens; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Montreal Canadiens. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 0.262195 to 0.503398. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.1546319456101628 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892473", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.1546319456101628e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.0295731707317075, 3.4323170731707315 ], "Primary": [ 2.9208617150865868, 3.424260077560548 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 2.9878, 3.249995 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 2.9878, 3.249995 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 0 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020075, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/MTL/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Detroit Red Wings", "previousEventId": "401892465", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Seattle Kraken", "previousVenue": { "id": "5404", "fullName": "Little Caesars Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Detroit", "state": "MI", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 1, "offDays": 0, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Bell Centre; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Montreal Canadiens", "previousEventId": "401892459", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Nashville Predators", "previousVenue": { "id": "1831", "fullName": "Bell Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Montreal", "state": "QC", "country": "Canada" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Bell Centre; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Bell Centre; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401892474", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Ottawa Senators: William Eklund Out, Cameron Crotty Day-To-Day, Jake Sanderson Day-To-Day, Artem Zub Injured Reserve, Andre Burakovsky Injured Reserve | Nashville Predators: Mavrik Bourque Day-To-Day, Justus Annunen Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892474", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.982314+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892474", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.692180+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.982314+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Ottawa Senators; Primary: Ottawa Senators; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Ottawa Senators; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Ottawa Senators. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 0.335365 to 0.582272. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.199040866595169 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892474", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.199040866595169e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 2.842581300813008, 3.358638211382114 ], "Primary": [ 2.739725779510626, 3.321997853432148 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 2.969505, 3.30487 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 2.969505, 3.30487 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020076, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/OTT/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Nashville Predators", "previousEventId": "401892459", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Montreal Canadiens", "previousVenue": { "id": "1831", "fullName": "Bell Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Montreal", "state": "QC", "country": "Canada" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Canadian Tire Centre; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Ottawa Senators", "previousEventId": "401891820", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Philadelphia Flyers", "previousVenue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Canadian Tire Centre; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Canadian Tire Centre; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401892475", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Pittsburgh Penguins: Andrei Kuzmenko Injured Reserve, Justin Brazeau Injured Reserve, Ryan Graves Injured Reserve | Dallas Stars: Joel Kiviranta Out, Matt Duchene Injured Reserve, Harrison Scott Injured Reserve, Luke Krys Injured Reserve, Cameron Hughes Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892475", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.954528+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.189763+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892475", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.954528+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.189763+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667; home: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Pittsburgh Penguins; Primary: Dallas Stars; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Dallas Stars; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Dallas Stars. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -0.115855 to 0.049309. Winner disagreement preserved. Independent arithmetic max error 1.0658141036401503 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892475", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.0658141036401503e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.1533333333333333, 3.2026422764227647 ], "Primary": [ 3.266360220744144, 3.2320750395757165 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 3.2378, 3.121945 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 3.2378, 3.121945 ] }, "winnerAgreement": false }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 0 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020077, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/PIT/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Dallas Stars", "previousEventId": "401892458", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Buffalo Sabres", "previousVenue": { "id": "1848", "fullName": "KeyBank Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Buffalo", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to PPG Paints Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "previousEventId": "401892467", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "previousVenue": { "id": "1828", "fullName": "Nationwide Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Columbus", "state": "OH", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 1, "offDays": 0, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to PPG Paints Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at PPG Paints Arena; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Model winner conflict increases uncertainty; do not suppress dissent. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401892476", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Chicago Blackhawks: Frank Nazar Suspension, Teuvo Teravainen Day-To-Day, Andrew Mangiapane Injured Reserve, Connor Bedard Injured Reserve | Carolina Hurricanes: Alexander Nikishin Day-To-Day, Seth Jarvis Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892476", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.956033+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.155806+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892476", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.956033+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.155806+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2; home: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Carolina Hurricanes; Primary: Carolina Hurricanes; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Carolina Hurricanes; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Carolina Hurricanes. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -1.085556 to -0.67561. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.021405182655144 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892476", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.021405182655144e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.465365853658537, 2.7897560975609754 ], "Primary": [ 3.657456277823465, 2.5719002247149967 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020078, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/CHI/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Carolina Hurricanes", "previousEventId": "401892461", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Vancouver Canucks", "previousVenue": { "id": "999", "fullName": "Lenovo Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Raleigh", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to United Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Chicago Blackhawks", "previousEventId": "401892462", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "previousOpponent": "New York Islanders", "previousVenue": { "id": "7226", "fullName": "UBS Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Elmont", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to United Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at United Center; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401892477", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "St. Louis Blues: Dillon Dube Out, Alexey Toropchenko Injured Reserve, Tyler Tucker Injured Reserve, Felix Trudeau Injured Reserve, Logan Mailloux Injured Reserve | Columbus Blue Jackets: no listed injuries. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892477", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.970281+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.185826+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892477", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.970281+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.185826+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 3 current regular; current weight 0.1304; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Columbus Blue Jackets; Primary: St. Louis Blues; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Columbus Blue Jackets; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Columbus Blue Jackets. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -0.11586 to 0.0469. Winner disagreement preserved. Independent arithmetic max error 1.1102230246251565 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892477", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.1102230246251565e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.0406636620714034, 2.998396076352068 ], "Primary": [ 2.9777440275954126, 3.0246444065471327 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ] }, "winnerAgreement": false }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 0 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020079, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/STL/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "previousEventId": "401892467", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "previousVenue": { "id": "1828", "fullName": "Nationwide Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Columbus", "state": "OH", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 1, "offDays": 0, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Enterprise Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "St. Louis Blues", "previousEventId": "401891825", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T00:00Z", "previousOpponent": "San Jose Sharks", "previousVenue": { "id": "1839", "fullName": "Enterprise Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Louis", "state": "MO", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Enterprise Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Enterprise Center; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Model winner conflict increases uncertainty; do not suppress dissent. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401892478", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Colorado Avalanche: Logan O'Connor Injured Reserve, Trent Miner Injured Reserve, Georgii Merkulov Injured Reserve | Toronto Maple Leafs: John Tavares Out, Oliver Ekman-Larsson Day-To-Day, Dakota Joshua Injured Reserve, Max Domi Injured Reserve, Cade Webber Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892478", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.982314+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.195071+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892478", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.982314+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.195071+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Colorado Avalanche; Primary: Colorado Avalanche; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Colorado Avalanche; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Colorado Avalanche. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 0.87805 to 1.197439. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.021405182655144 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892478", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.021405182655144e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 2.674817073170732, 3.872256097560976 ], "Primary": [ 2.6899241738444166, 3.886003489602974 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 1 whole off days. Official status article mentions 9 pm ET, but official structured schedule and ESPN both 7 pm ET; use 7 pm ET while retaining source conflict.", "official": { "id": 2026020080, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/TOR/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "previousEventId": "401892464", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T02:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Vegas Golden Knights", "previousVenue": { "id": "5060", "fullName": "T-Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Ball Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Colorado Avalanche", "previousEventId": "401892463", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T01:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Calgary Flames", "previousVenue": { "id": "1843", "fullName": "Scotiabank Saddledome", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Calgary", "state": "AB", "country": "Canada" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Ball Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": " Official status article mentions9pmET, but official structured schedule and ESPN both7pmET; use7pmET while retaining source conflict." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Ball Arena; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401898396", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Indiana Pacers: Larry Nance Jr. Day-To-Day, T.J. McConnell Day-To-Day, Johnny Furphy Out | Atlanta Hawks: Keshon Gilbert Day-To-Day, Luguentz Dort Day-To-Day, Jalen Johnson Day-To-Day, Henri Veesaar Out, Mouhamed Gueye Day-To-Day. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Preseason DTD/rest decisions may materially reshape minutes; normalized 240 minute examples are sensitivity only.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.185826+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.329231+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.185826+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.329231+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0; home: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0. Primary training games=2796. Classic/current preseason excludes exhibitions from regular baseline; Primary explicitly models preseason with 0.35 training weight. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NBA.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Atlanta Hawks; Primary: Atlanta Hawks; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Atlanta Hawks; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Atlanta Hawks. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -5.201223 to -1.987765. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 7.105427357601002 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401898396", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 7.105427357601002e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 117.9390243902439, 115.73780487804878 ], "Primary": [ 117.97422345984468, 115.98645878350496 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "2026-27 preseason verified NBA.com; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 2 whole off days.", "official": { "id": "0012600006", "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10", "stage": "Preseason", "isNeutral": false }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Atlanta Hawks", "previousEventId": "401898394", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T00:00Z", "previousOpponent": "San Antonio Spurs", "previousVenue": { "id": "780", "fullName": "Frost Bank Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "San Antonio", "state": "TX" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Gainbridge Fieldhouse; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Indiana Pacers", "previousEventId": "401914123", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-07T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "previousVenue": { "id": "432", "fullName": "Hilton Coliseum", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ames", "state": "IA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 3, "offDays": 2, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Gainbridge Fieldhouse; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Gainbridge Fieldhouse; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401906510", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Washington Wizards: Khris Middleton Day-To-Day, Alex Sarr Day-To-Day, Tristan Vukcevic Out, Jamir Watkins Out | Detroit Pistons: Jalen Duren Day-To-Day. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Preseason DTD/rest decisions may materially reshape minutes; normalized 240 minute examples are sensitivity only.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401906510", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.189763+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.386035+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401906510", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.189763+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.386035+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0; home: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0. Primary training games=2796. Classic/current preseason excludes exhibitions from regular baseline; Primary explicitly models preseason with 0.35 training weight. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NBA.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Detroit Pistons; Primary: Detroit Pistons; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Detroit Pistons; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Detroit Pistons. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -10.263433 to -7.067073. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 5.684341886080802 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401906510", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 5.684341886080802e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 119.82317073170731, 112.7560975609756 ], "Primary": [ 119.66393220407303, 109.40049909122376 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "2026-27 preseason verified NBA.com; official start 2026-10-10 07:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 4 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": "0012600038", "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "source": "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10", "stage": "Preseason", "isNeutral": false }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Detroit Pistons", "previousEventId": "401908947", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Phoenix Suns", "previousVenue": { "id": "5404", "fullName": "Little Caesars Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Detroit", "state": "MI" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 5, "offDays": 4, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Capital One Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Washington Wizards", "previousEventId": "401906508", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "previousOpponent": "New York Knicks", "previousVenue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Capital One Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Capital One Arena; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401856712", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Bowens leads RB carries (35) and has six rushing TD plus 10 catches/132 yards. Clear material committee/red-zone role. Current baseline reflects some absence exposure; no invented efficiency conversion. Blackshear 5 catches and Canion 3 are secondary role uncertainties, not headcount additions. | Alabama Crimson Tide: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 31.512307692307694, 31.864615384615384 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.653846153846153, 23.576923076923077 ], "currentMatchup": [ 36.1, 31.5 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 1.1353846153846152, 0.3646153846153848 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 63, "off_points_proxy": 236, "def_points_proxy": 76, "off_plays": 366, "off_yards": 2686, "def_plays": 425, "def_yards": 1917, "early_plays": 285, "early_yards": 1955, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856658", "401856673", "401856686", "401856700", "401856705" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.806451612903226, "def_ppd": 1.2063492063492063, "off_ypp": 7.33879781420765, "def_ypp": 4.510588235294118, "early_down_ypp": 6.859649122807017 }, "home": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 220, "def_points_proxy": 96, "off_plays": 416, "off_yards": 2870, "def_plays": 424, "def_yards": 2031, "early_plays": 317, "early_yards": 1927, "explosive_plays": 47, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856634", "401856674", "401856685", "401856696", "401856707" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.793103448275862, "def_ppd": 1.5483870967741935, "off_ypp": 6.899038461538462, "def_ypp": 4.790094339622642, "early_down_ypp": 6.078864353312303 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog. Low around 61. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Saturday Showers, mainly before 4pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog before noon. High near 70. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday Night A 30 percent chance of showers before 1am. Patchy fog before 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tuscaloosa&state=AL&site=BMX&textField1=33.2377&textField2=-87.541&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856712", "matchup": "Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Georgia Bulldogs", "names": [ "Chauncey Bowens" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [] }, { "eventId": "401858258", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Angeli OUT; replacement Odom DOUBTFUL after 335 yards/five TD versus UConn. QB branch Angeli\u2192Odom or Angeli\u2192next reserve has one -3; no stacking two unavailable QBs occupying one role. Anderson 30 carries/146 yards is material RB, separate -3 rushing pathway. Joint -6 QB+RB; third-QB efficiency is unestimated and final actual reserve selection still unresolved. | Virginia Cavaliers: current report contains 3 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 23.33346153846154, 35.509166666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 20.352564102564102, 33.53525641025641 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.375, 28.4 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.041538461538461, 4.541538461538461 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 50, "def_drives": 49, "off_points_proxy": 134, "def_points_proxy": 88, "off_plays": 395, "off_yards": 2393, "def_plays": 334, "def_yards": 1964, "early_plays": 294, "early_yards": 1628, "explosive_plays": 40, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858208", "401858216", "401858225", "401858252" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.68, "def_ppd": 1.7959183673469388, "off_ypp": 6.058227848101266, "def_ypp": 5.880239520958084, "early_down_ypp": 5.537414965986395 }, "home": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 163, "def_points_proxy": 89, "off_plays": 457, "off_yards": 2381, "def_plays": 406, "def_yards": 1889, "early_plays": 313, "early_yards": 1643, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856802", "401858202", "401858220", "401858239", "401858253" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.629032258064516, "def_ppd": 1.435483870967742, "off_ypp": 5.210065645514224, "def_ypp": 4.652709359605911, "early_down_ypp": 5.2492012779552715 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Cloudy, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Tonight Showers, mainly after 10pm. Low around 58. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charlottesville&state=VA&site=LWX&textField1=38.0374&textField2=-78.4857&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Amari Odom" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858258", "matchup": "Syracuse Orange at Virginia Cavaliers", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "names": [ "Amari Odom" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "names": [ "Steve Angeli", "Shavane Anderson Jr." ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "replacement_identity", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Angeli OUT, Odom DOUBTFUL, actual third-quarterback replacement/workload unresolved; same-role -3 does not bound an unverified reserve." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Amari Odom" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401858485", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved. | Howard leads receiving yards, 12/344, so OUT is a main receiver trigger. Sowell 19/264 and receiving TE Brahmer 16/178 remain available on Friday report; target allocation unestimated. Cooper Alexander has no established primary receiving workload and no automatic extra penalty.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 28.916666666666668, 29.458333333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 28.958333333333336, 27.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.666666666666668, 28.75 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.041666666666666435, 1.5416666666666665 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 60, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 200, "def_points_proxy": 156, "off_plays": 508, "off_yards": 3265, "def_plays": 450, "def_yards": 2778, "early_plays": 400, "early_yards": 2449, "explosive_plays": 46, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858436", "401858445", "401858457", "401858469", "401858478", "401864494" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 3.3333333333333335, "def_ppd": 2.5161290322580645, "off_ypp": 6.427165354330708, "def_ypp": 6.173333333333333, "early_down_ypp": 6.1225 }, "home": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 154, "def_points_proxy": 81, "off_plays": 413, "off_yards": 2413, "def_plays": 413, "def_yards": 2213, "early_plays": 290, "early_yards": 1692, "explosive_plays": 34, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858434", "401858442", "401858456", "401858466", "401858476" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.5245901639344264, "def_ppd": 1.3064516129032258, "off_ypp": 5.842615012106537, "def_ypp": 5.358353510895884, "early_down_ypp": 5.834482758620689 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Rain likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=University+Park&state=PA&site=CTP&textField1=40.8002&textField2=-77.858&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "USC Trojans", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trent Mosley, Mark Bowman", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Corey Simms", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Corey Simms" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858485", "matchup": "USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany Lions", "risks": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "USC Trojans", "names": [ "Trent Mosley", "Mark Bowman" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "conditional_role", "team": "USC Trojans", "names": [ "Corey Simms" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Borderline role scenarios are explicitly retained; not automatically missing research. Existing deductions and overlap must remain in tested branches." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Penn State Nittany Lions", "names": [ "Koby Howard" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "USC Trojans", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trent Mosley, Mark Bowman", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Corey Simms", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Corey Simms" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401864516", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "MW lists Szarka out for season; he is team leader in passing and rushing. Medders has seven current pass attempts and 18 rushes; official September note identifies first game action in 2026. Only one -3 for this QB, not separate deduction for being top rusher. Limited prior replacement sample and option execution materially widen uncertainty. | Northern Illinois Huskies: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.67916666666667, 21.383333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.083333333333332, 23.708333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.625, 16.875 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.825, -2.325 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 42, "def_drives": 43, "off_points_proxy": 113, "def_points_proxy": 81, "off_plays": 372, "off_yards": 1912, "def_plays": 299, "def_yards": 1533, "early_plays": 262, "early_yards": 1141, "explosive_plays": 22, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862791", "401864496", "401864502", "401864509" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.6904761904761907, "def_ppd": 1.8837209302325582, "off_ypp": 5.139784946236559, "def_ypp": 5.127090301003345, "early_down_ypp": 4.354961832061068 }, "home": { "off_drives": 46, "def_drives": 46, "off_points_proxy": 48, "def_points_proxy": 125, "off_plays": 339, "off_yards": 1775, "def_plays": 322, "def_yards": 1999, "early_plays": 228, "early_yards": 1057, "explosive_plays": 23, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856793", "401858426", "401864503", "401864511" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 1.0434782608695652, "def_ppd": 2.717391304347826, "off_ypp": 5.23598820058997, "def_ypp": 6.208074534161491, "early_down_ypp": 4.635964912280702 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Increasing clouds, with a high near 81. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 55. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dekalb&state=IL&site=LOT&textField1=41.8926&textField2=-88.7585&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401864516", "matchup": "Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois Huskies", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Air Force Falcons", "names": [ "Liam Szarka" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "replacement_experience", "team": "Air Force Falcons", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Medders seven pass attempts/current first action; option-execution replacement uncertainty.", "pointAdjustment": null } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [] }, { "eventId": "401869949", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Top receiver Corey Scott OUT: 21 catches/289 yards/4 TD. Receiving TE Keller 12/163 and two other current receivers are candidates; target changes not quantitatively projected. | Hollins OUT for season after 14 catches/202 yards/2 TD, third receiving yards. Dallas PROBABLE with 29 catches and receiving TE Helms 20 catches are redistribution candidates; one-catch reserve King Phillips no additional deduction.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "currentMatchup": [ 34.3, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 5.839487179487179, -4.339487179487179 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 61, "def_drives": 66, "off_points_proxy": 205, "def_points_proxy": 88, "off_plays": 402, "off_yards": 3082, "def_plays": 472, "def_yards": 2345, "early_plays": 300, "early_yards": 2247, "explosive_plays": 43, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401860887", "401867929", "401869960", "401869961", "401869962" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 3.360655737704918, "def_ppd": 1.3333333333333333, "off_ypp": 7.666666666666667, "def_ypp": 4.968220338983051, "early_down_ypp": 7.49 }, "home": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 124, "def_points_proxy": 105, "off_plays": 428, "off_yards": 2546, "def_plays": 413, "def_yards": 2078, "early_plays": 296, "early_yards": 1619, "explosive_plays": 31, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856806", "401858219", "401868170", "401869942", "401869948" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.1016949152542375, "def_ppd": 1.8103448275862069, "off_ypp": 5.9485981308411215, "def_ypp": 5.031476997578692, "early_down_ypp": 5.469594594594595 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 3pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. High near 81. Southeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2am and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Low around 69. Southeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Statesboro&state=GA&site=CHS&textField1=32.4424&textField2=-81.7792&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401869949", "matchup": "James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern Eagles", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "names": [ "Corey Scott" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "names": [ "Ashton Hollins" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [] }, { "eventId": "401869965", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Smith 30 carries/156 yards forms a material four-back committee with Reagan39, Garner27 and Blanco36 carries. OUT for season changes distributed rushing workload. Norris 2 catches is no automatic mainWR loss. | Kukuk top passer 73 attempts and 32 rushes QUESTIONABLE. Baker has 36 attempts/360 yards/four TD. One QB replacement -3 if unavailable; no second rushing penalty for Kukuk's 167 rushing yards.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 28.455000000000002, 30.411666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.208333333333332, 28.833333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.1, 27.7 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.6450000000000004, 2.1450000000000005 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 57, "def_drives": 53, "off_points_proxy": 147, "def_points_proxy": 69, "off_plays": 416, "off_yards": 2637, "def_plays": 365, "def_yards": 1852, "early_plays": 317, "early_yards": 1913, "explosive_plays": 39, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858445", "401862776", "401862780", "401869142", "401869932" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.5789473684210527, "def_ppd": 1.3018867924528301, "off_ypp": 6.3389423076923075, "def_ypp": 5.073972602739726, "early_down_ypp": 6.034700315457413 }, "home": { "off_drives": 51, "def_drives": 52, "off_points_proxy": 132, "def_points_proxy": 123, "off_plays": 308, "off_yards": 2007, "def_plays": 361, "def_yards": 1940, "early_plays": 225, "early_yards": 1377, "explosive_plays": 31, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401867796", "401867804", "401869129", "401869842" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.588235294117647, "def_ppd": 2.3653846153846154, "off_ypp": 6.516233766233766, "def_ypp": 5.373961218836565, "early_down_ypp": 6.12 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 88. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Tonight Clear, with a low around 62. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph after midnight. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ruston&state=LA&site=SHV&textField1=32.5318&textField2=-92.6396&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trey Kukuk" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401869965", "matchup": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns", "names": [ "Darrell Smith" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "names": [ "Trey Kukuk" ], "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_ALL_SCENARIOS_SURVIVE", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trey Kukuk" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401892479", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "New York Islanders: Bo Horvat Day-To-Day, Alexander Romanov Out, Mathew Barzal Injured Reserve | Tampa Bay Lightning: Emil Lilleberg Out, Yanni Gourde Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892479", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.990735+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.198313+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892479", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.990735+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.198313+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Tampa Bay Lightning; Primary: Tampa Bay Lightning; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Tampa Bay Lightning; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Tampa Bay Lightning. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -0.39024 to -0.077947. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.2434497875801753 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892479", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.2434497875801753e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 2.9940040650406505, 2.9160569105691057 ], "Primary": [ 3.0841286348186348, 2.7538001012828808 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 07:30 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020081, "startUTC": "2026-10-10T23:30:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/TBL/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "previousEventId": "401892460", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Minnesota Wild", "previousVenue": { "id": "1396", "fullName": "Benchmark International Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Tampa", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to UBS Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "New York Islanders", "previousEventId": "401892462", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "previousOpponent": "Chicago Blackhawks", "previousVenue": { "id": "7226", "fullName": "UBS Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Elmont", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to UBS Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at UBS Arena; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "761847", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 3 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T23:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Nu Stadium" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 106. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Tonight A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 2am and 5am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 80. Southeast wind around 9 mph. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "761848", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 4 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T23:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Inter&Co Stadium" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 102. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "761849", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 5 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T23:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Subaru Park" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the morning. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 5 mph. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "761850", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 2 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T23:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Mercedes-Benz Stadium" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 74. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 61. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "761851", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 5 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T23:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Gillette Stadium" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. North wind 3 to 5 mph. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Calm wind. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "761852", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 1 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T23:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Bank of America Stadium" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Patchy fog after 9am. High near 69. Northeast wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Low around 66. East wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "761853", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 4 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-10T23:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Sports Illustrated Stadium" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the morning. Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 55. Light and variable wind. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401856827", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Willis 27 carries versus Edwards50, Dupree21, Johnson13 verifies material committee role. Cole Ballard is a reserve with seven attempts, compared with Marshall104; no current starting-QB penalty solely for his OUT designation. | Utah Utes: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 19.866666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.375, 33.91666666666667 ], "currentMatchup": [ 23.125, 30.125 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.5083333333333337, 5.008333333333334 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 50, "def_drives": 51, "off_points_proxy": 138, "def_points_proxy": 68, "off_plays": 362, "off_yards": 2513, "def_plays": 316, "def_yards": 1541, "early_plays": 268, "early_yards": 1903, "explosive_plays": 34, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856678", "401856769", "401856807", "401856812" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.76, "def_ppd": 1.3333333333333333, "off_ypp": 6.941988950276243, "def_ypp": 4.8765822784810124, "early_down_ypp": 7.100746268656716 }, "home": { "off_drives": 47, "def_drives": 46, "off_points_proxy": 173, "def_points_proxy": 41, "off_plays": 319, "off_yards": 2241, "def_plays": 355, "def_yards": 1337, "early_plays": 243, "early_yards": 1604, "explosive_plays": 31, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856670", "401856768", "401856801", "401856816" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 3.6808510638297873, "def_ppd": 0.8913043478260869, "off_ypp": 7.025078369905956, "def_ypp": 3.7661971830985914, "early_down_ypp": 6.600823045267489 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 65. South southeast wind around 10 mph. Saturday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. South wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Low around 53. South wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Salt+Lake+City&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=40.7608&textField2=-111.89&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856827", "matchup": "Kansas Jayhawks at Utah Utes", "risks": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Kansas Jayhawks", "names": [ "Yasin Willis" ], "severity": "LOW_IF_APPLICABLE_BRANCH_SURVIVES", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [] }, { "eventId": "401858486", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Minnesota Golden Gophers: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability. | Purdue Boilermakers: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 33.6725, 22.548333333333332 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.541666666666664, 21.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.5, 24.2 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.151666666666667, -1.6516666666666668 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 58, "def_drives": 58, "off_points_proxy": 139, "def_points_proxy": 97, "off_plays": 417, "off_yards": 2391, "def_plays": 369, "def_yards": 1879, "early_plays": 297, "early_yards": 1745, "explosive_plays": 35, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856677", "401858422", "401858451", "401858470", "401858474" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.396551724137931, "def_ppd": 1.6724137931034482, "off_ypp": 5.733812949640288, "def_ypp": 5.092140921409214, "early_down_ypp": 5.875420875420875 }, "home": { "off_drives": 55, "def_drives": 51, "off_points_proxy": 145, "def_points_proxy": 168, "off_plays": 446, "off_yards": 2631, "def_plays": 400, "def_yards": 2706, "early_plays": 331, "early_yards": 1786, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858224", "401858435", "401858458", "401858467", "401858472" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.6363636363636362, "def_ppd": 3.2941176470588234, "off_ypp": 5.8991031390134525, "def_ypp": 6.765, "early_down_ypp": 5.395770392749244 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Tonight A chance of showers before 1am, then a slight chance of showers after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 7 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=West+Lafayette&state=IN&site=IND&textField1=40.4447&textField2=-86.9119&e=0", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401858486", "matchup": "Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [] }, { "eventId": "401868054", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Abilene Christian Wildcats: QB Tucker Parks, RB Rovaughn Banks Jr./Alex Broome/Deonte Dean, WR Raydrian Baltrip/Luke Moffitt/JC French-Love, TE Jayden York/Itty Henry; Central Arkansas Bears: QB Donovyn Omolo/Walker White, RB Jalen Washington/Chapman McKown/James Jointer, WR Dakarai Anderson/Ty Durham/Tyrell Pollard, TE Kealen Juniel/Que Tillman", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 24.612380952380956, 31.42214285714286 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.464285714285715, 32.36904761904762 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.833333333333336, 25.03333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.220952380952381, 2.7209523809523812 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 57, "def_drives": 54, "off_points_proxy": 134, "def_points_proxy": 119, "off_plays": 406, "off_yards": 2579, "def_plays": 372, "def_yards": 2482, "early_plays": 292, "early_yards": 1795, "explosive_plays": 35, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858237", "401868070", "401868071", "401868072", "401868133" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.3508771929824563, "def_ppd": 2.2037037037037037, "off_ypp": 6.352216748768473, "def_ypp": 6.672043010752688, "early_down_ypp": 6.147260273972603 }, "home": { "off_drives": 69, "def_drives": 71, "off_points_proxy": 110, "def_points_proxy": 167, "off_plays": 478, "off_yards": 2477, "def_plays": 482, "def_yards": 3081, "early_plays": 344, "early_yards": 1783, "explosive_plays": 38, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856770", "401868049", "401868050", "401868051", "401868052", "401868053" ], "games": 6, "off_ppd": 1.5942028985507246, "def_ppd": 2.352112676056338, "off_ypp": 5.182008368200837, "def_ypp": 6.3921161825726145, "early_down_ypp": 5.183139534883721 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2000", "teamName": "Abilene Christian Wildcats", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868053", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "West Florida Argonauts at Abilene Christian Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Wildcat Stadium (TX)", "address": { "city": "Abilene", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "79601", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2000", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "2000", "displayName": "Abilene Christian Wildcats" } }, { "id": "110242", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "110242", "displayName": "West Florida Argonauts" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://acusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2110", "teamName": "Central Arkansas Bears", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401858237", "date": "2026-09-26T19:00Z", "name": "Central Arkansas Bears at Florida State Seminoles", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Doak Campbell Stadium", "address": { "city": "Tallahassee", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32304", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "52", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "52", "displayName": "Florida State Seminoles" } }, { "id": "2110", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 7.0, "displayValue": "7" }, "team": { "id": "2110", "displayName": "Central Arkansas Bears" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.208, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ucasports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Abilene. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Abilene&state=TX&site=SJT&textField1=32.4545&textField2=-99.739&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.925373+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 92. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 66. South southeast wind around 10 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868054", "matchup": "Central Arkansas Bears at Abilene Christian Wildcats", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401868249", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: QB Aidan Jakobsohn/Garret Rangel, RB TJ Dement/Brennan Carroll/Broderick Taylor, WR Jaydon Smith/Kyran Lee/Corey Holmes, TE no primary receiver established; SE Louisiana Lions: QB Kyle Lowe/Issac Mooring III, RB Deantre Jackson/Calvin Smith Jr./Chad Elzy Jr., WR Dkhai Joseph/Tristan Goodly/Desmen Jefferson, TE Lonnie Shinn", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.664999999999996, 31.330833333333334 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.916666666666664, 28.791666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 26.799999999999997, 28.6 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.1350000000000005, 2.6350000000000007 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 59, "def_drives": 61, "off_points_proxy": 144, "def_points_proxy": 151, "off_plays": 384, "off_yards": 2326, "def_plays": 445, "def_yards": 3007, "early_plays": 275, "early_yards": 1659, "explosive_plays": 31, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401868150", "401868315", "401868316", "401868317", "401868318" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.440677966101695, "def_ppd": 2.4754098360655736, "off_ypp": 6.057291666666667, "def_ypp": 6.757303370786516, "early_down_ypp": 6.032727272727273 }, "home": { "off_drives": 63, "def_drives": 62, "off_points_proxy": 132, "def_points_proxy": 99, "off_plays": 455, "off_yards": 2976, "def_plays": 408, "def_yards": 2203, "early_plays": 316, "early_yards": 1968, "explosive_plays": 46, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401862700", "401868245", "401868246", "401868247", "401868248" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.0952380952380953, "def_ppd": 1.596774193548387, "off_ypp": 6.5406593406593405, "def_ypp": 5.3995098039215685, "early_down_ypp": 6.227848101265823 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "source": null, "details": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "292", "teamName": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868248", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at East Texas A&M Lions", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX)", "address": { "city": "Commerce", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "75428", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2837", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "2837", "displayName": "East Texas A&M Lions" } }, { "id": "292", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 17.0, "displayValue": "17" }, "team": { "id": "292", "displayName": "UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goutrgv.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2545", "teamName": "SE Louisiana Lions", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868318", "date": "2026-09-26T23:00Z", "name": "SE Louisiana Lions at Northwestern State Demons", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Turpin Stadium", "address": { "city": "Natchitoches", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "71457", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2466", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2466", "displayName": "Northwestern State Demons" } }, { "id": "2545", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 52.0, "displayValue": "52" }, "team": { "id": "2545", "displayName": "SE Louisiana Lions" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://lionsports.net/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Edinburg. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] } }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Edinburg&state=TX&site=BRO&textField1=26.2958&textField2=-98.1649&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.993874+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 92. Light and variable wind becoming east southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 74. East southeast wind 5 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401868249", "matchup": "SE Louisiana Lions at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros", "risks": [], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401898397", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Miami Heat: Kylor Kelley Day-To-Day, Pelle Larsson Day-To-Day, Keshad Johnson Out, Dru Smith Day-To-Day | Minnesota Timberwolves: Donte DiVincenzo Out. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Preseason DTD/rest decisions may materially reshape minutes; normalized 240 minute examples are sensitivity only.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898397", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.195071+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.399400+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898397", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.195071+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.399400+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0; home: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0. Primary training games=2796. Classic/current preseason excludes exhibitions from regular baseline; Primary explicitly models preseason with 0.35 training weight. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NBA.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Miami Heat; Primary: Miami Heat; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Minnesota Timberwolves; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Minnesota Timberwolves. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -0.512195 to 2.487805. Winner disagreement preserved. Independent arithmetic max error 1.5631940186722204 e-13. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401898397", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.5631940186722204e-13, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 116.76829268292683, 119.2560975609756 ], "Primary": [ 115.79820681340645, 116.60568244110301 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ] }, "winnerAgreement": false }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "2026-27 preseason verified NBA.com; official start 2026-10-10 08:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 2 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": "0012600002", "startUTC": "2026-10-11T00:00:00Z", "source": "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10", "stage": "Preseason", "isNeutral": false }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "previousEventId": "401914123", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-07T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Indiana Pacers", "previousVenue": { "id": "432", "fullName": "Hilton Coliseum", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ames", "state": "IA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 3, "offDays": 2, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Kaseya Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Miami Heat", "previousEventId": "401898393", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "previousOpponent": "New Orleans Pelicans", "previousVenue": { "id": "3438", "fullName": "Kaseya Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Miami", "state": "FL" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Kaseya Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Kaseya Center; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Model winner conflict increases uncertainty; do not suppress dissent. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401898398", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Boston Celtics: Sam Hauser Day-To-Day, Ron Harper Jr. Day-To-Day, Payton Pritchard Day-To-Day, Mitchell Robinson Day-To-Day, Neemias Queta Day-To-Day | Philadelphia 76 ers: Dominick Barlow Day-To-Day, Anfernee Simons Day-To-Day, Adem Bona Day-To-Day, Ariel Hukporti Out, Tacko Fall Day-To-Day. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Preseason DTD/rest decisions may materially reshape minutes; normalized 240 minute examples are sensitivity only.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898398", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.198313+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.398368+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898398", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.198313+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.398368+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0; home: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0. Primary training games=2796. Classic/current preseason excludes exhibitions from regular baseline; Primary explicitly models preseason with 0.35 training weight. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NBA.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Boston Celtics; Primary: Boston Celtics; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Boston Celtics; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Boston Celtics. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 3.939022 to 8.126522. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 5.684341886080802 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401898398", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 5.684341886080802e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 110.01829268292683, 116.95731707317074 ], "Primary": [ 107.15907118810475, 115.28559278508186 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "2026-27 preseason verified NBA.com; official start 2026-10-10 08:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": "0012600013", "startUTC": "2026-10-11T00:00:00Z", "source": "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10", "stage": "Preseason", "isNeutral": false }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Philadelphia 76ers", "previousEventId": "401901823", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "previousOpponent": "Brooklyn Nets", "previousVenue": { "id": "3559", "fullName": "Barclays Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Brooklyn", "state": "NY" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to TD Garden; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Boston Celtics", "previousEventId": "401898392", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "previousVenue": { "id": "3417", "fullName": "Rocket Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Cleveland", "state": "OH" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to TD Garden; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at TD Garden; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401907994", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Cleveland Guardians: Rhys Hoskins 10-Day-IL, Colin Holderman 15-Day-IL, Andrew Walters Out | Chicago White Sox: Prelander Berroa 60-Day-IL, Joey Bart 10-Day-IL, Tanner Murray 60-Day-IL, Luis Castillo 15-Day-IL, Ky Bush 60-Day-IL. Today MLB starting order not posted; prior October 8 final lineup and current candidates retained. Hoskins 1 B/DH\u2192Lowe/Adell, Bart catcher\u2192Teel conditional; no confirmed PA.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401907994", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.687859+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.995793+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401907994", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.687859+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.995793+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 162 prior regular / 162 current regular; current weight 0.8438; home: 162 prior regular / 162 current regular; current weight 0.8438. Primary training games=4952. Full 2026 regular season informs baseline; postseason regime is explicit forPrimary and not mixed intoClassicregular rates. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-MLB.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Cleveland Guardians; Primary: Chicago White Sox; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Chicago White Sox; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Chicago White Sox. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -0.138889 to 0.125733. Winner disagreement preserved. Independent arithmetic max error 3.552713678800501 e-15. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401907994", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 3.552713678800501e-15, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 4.2828125, 4.408545524691357 ], "Primary": [ 3.8472225084012273, 3.806032909080149 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ] }, "winnerAgreement": false }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Postseason verified official MLB game typeD; official start 2026-10-10 08:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 849831, "startUTC": "2026-10-11T00:00:00Z", "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1.1/game/849831/feed/live", "stage": "D" }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Chicago White Sox", "previousEventId": "401907993", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T00:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Cleveland Guardians", "previousVenue": { "id": "4", "fullName": "Rate Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "Illinois" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Progressive Field; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "previousEventId": "401907993", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T00:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Chicago White Sox", "previousVenue": { "id": "4", "fullName": "Rate Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "Illinois" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Progressive Field; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Progressive Field outdoor. NWS grid hourly forecast for 8 pm ET: 67 \u00b0F, Mostly Cloudy, 9 mph SE, precipitation chance 3%. Retrieved 2026-10-10 T 10:16:43.400384+00:00. Forecast, not observed first-pitch weather; recheck delays. Registered score engines have no weather adjustment.", "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/CLE/84,65/forecast/hourly", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS: final batting order/opportunities unconfirmed; no live selection certified. Model winner conflict increases uncertainty; do not suppress dissent. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "PASS_UNCONFIRMED_LINEUP", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "lineup", "facts": [ "Actual batting orders and replacement opportunity conversion unconfirmed; no validated probability edge." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401916276", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official October9 weigh-in list matches12bout card. Souza117, Bonfim163.5 and Ribeiro208.5 missed their class limits; their respective purse deductions are20%,25%,20%. These are weigh-in facts, not measured performance penalties. No team-trade pathway applies to independent UFC bouts." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official Meta APEX card: preliminaries5pmET, maincard8pmET; main event5rounds, others3. Segment start is not each bout start." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor Meta APEX; outdoor weather not a cage-score adjustment." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401924510", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official October9 weigh-in list matches12bout card. Souza117, Bonfim163.5 and Ribeiro208.5 missed their class limits; their respective purse deductions are20%,25%,20%. These are weigh-in facts, not measured performance penalties. No team-trade pathway applies to independent UFC bouts." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official Meta APEX card: preliminaries5pmET, maincard8pmET; main event5rounds, others3. Segment start is not each bout start." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor Meta APEX; outdoor weather not a cage-score adjustment." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401927415", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official October9 weigh-in list matches12bout card. Souza117, Bonfim163.5 and Ribeiro208.5 missed their class limits; their respective purse deductions are20%,25%,20%. These are weigh-in facts, not measured performance penalties. No team-trade pathway applies to independent UFC bouts." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official Meta APEX card: preliminaries5pmET, maincard8pmET; main event5rounds, others3. Segment start is not each bout start." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor Meta APEX; outdoor weather not a cage-score adjustment." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401927416", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official October9 weigh-in list matches12bout card. Souza117, Bonfim163.5 and Ribeiro208.5 missed their class limits; their respective purse deductions are20%,25%,20%. These are weigh-in facts, not measured performance penalties. No team-trade pathway applies to independent UFC bouts." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official Meta APEX card: preliminaries5pmET, maincard8pmET; main event5rounds, others3. Segment start is not each bout start." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor Meta APEX; outdoor weather not a cage-score adjustment." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401927421", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official October9 weigh-in list matches12bout card. Souza117, Bonfim163.5 and Ribeiro208.5 missed their class limits; their respective purse deductions are20%,25%,20%. These are weigh-in facts, not measured performance penalties. No team-trade pathway applies to independent UFC bouts." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official Meta APEX card: preliminaries5pmET, maincard8pmET; main event5rounds, others3. Segment start is not each bout start." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor Meta APEX; outdoor weather not a cage-score adjustment." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401898399", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Golden State Warriors: Gui Santos Day-To-Day, Brandin Podziemski Day-To-Day, Gary Payton II Day-To-Day, Georges Niang Day-To-Day, De'Anthony Melton Day-To-Day | Sacramento Kings: Leaky Black Day-To-Day, Domantas Sabonis Day-To-Day, Keegan Murray Day-To-Day, Malik Monk Day-To-Day, Ben Simmons Day-To-Day. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Preseason DTD/rest decisions may materially reshape minutes; normalized 240 minute examples are sensitivity only.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.205902+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:26.426551+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.205902+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:26.426551+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0; home: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0. Primary training games=2796. Classic/current preseason excludes exhibitions from regular baseline; Primary explicitly models preseason with 0.35 training weight. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NBA.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Golden State Warriors; Primary: Golden State Warriors; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Golden State Warriors; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Golden State Warriors. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 4.719515 to 7.719512. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 5.684341886080802 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401898399", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 5.684341886080802e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 111.58536585365854, 119.3048780487805 ], "Primary": [ 110.48723717784918, 117.41503362152974 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "2026-27 preseason verified NBA.com; official start 2026-10-10 08:30 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 2 whole off days.", "official": { "id": "0012600014", "startUTC": "2026-10-11T00:30:00Z", "source": "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10", "stage": "Preseason", "isNeutral": false }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Sacramento Kings", "previousEventId": "401898717", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "previousOpponent": "Los Angeles Lakers", "previousVenue": { "id": "1841", "fullName": "crypto.com Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "CA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Chase Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Golden State Warriors", "previousEventId": "401914129", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Portland Trail Blazers", "previousVenue": { "id": "3423", "fullName": "Moda Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Portland", "state": "OR" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 3, "offDays": 2, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Chase Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Chase Center; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "761854", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 2 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-11T00:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Allianz Field" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 89. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 69. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "761855", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 4 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-11T00:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Sporting Park" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 88. South wind 6 to 10 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 65. South southeast wind around 6 mph. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "761856", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 3 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-11T00:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Q2 Stadium" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 67. South wind around 5 mph. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "761857", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 7 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-11T01:30:00Z matches sporting slate. Dick's Sporting Goods Park" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Today Sunny, with a high near 85. South southwest wind 5 to 11 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 17 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south after midnight. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401892480", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Calgary Flames: Jonathan Huberdeau Injured Reserve | Anaheim Ducks: Drew Helleson Injured Reserve, Troy Terry Injured Reserve, Ian Moore Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892480", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.995793+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.205902+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892480", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:10.995793+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.205902+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667; home: 82 prior regular / 4 current regular; current weight 0.1667. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Anaheim Ducks; Primary: Anaheim Ducks; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Anaheim Ducks; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Anaheim Ducks. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -0.379268 to -0.15244. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.1546319456101628 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892480", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.1546319456101628e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 3.3740853658536585, 2.994817073170732 ], "Primary": [ 3.269948448440952, 3.0091924241938193 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 10:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 0 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020082, "startUTC": "2026-10-11T02:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/CGY/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Anaheim Ducks", "previousEventId": "401892468", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Winnipeg Jets", "previousVenue": { "id": "1397", "fullName": "Canada Life Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Winnipeg", "state": "MB", "country": "Canada" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 1, "offDays": 0, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Scotiabank Saddledome; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Calgary Flames", "previousEventId": "401892463", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T01:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Colorado Avalanche", "previousVenue": { "id": "1843", "fullName": "Scotiabank Saddledome", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Calgary", "state": "AB", "country": "Canada" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Scotiabank Saddledome; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Scotiabank Saddledome; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401892481", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Vegas Golden Knights: Victor Olofsson Out, Lukas Cormier Injured Reserve | Los Angeles Kings: Alex Turcotte Day-To-Day, Mats Zuccarello Out, Jakub Dvorak Injured Reserve, Jan Jenik Injured Reserve, Kevin Fiala Injured Reserve. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Official lineups/status evidence retained where available, goalie context separate.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892481", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.045798+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.221284+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892481", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.045798+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.221284+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular / 3 current regular; current weight 0.1304; home: 82 prior regular / 5 current regular; current weight 0.2. Primary training games=2851. Current/prior seasons remain separated. NHL 69 current regular identities verified against primary game type 2. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NHL.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: Vegas Golden Knights; Primary: Vegas Golden Knights; Tighten Up Conservative ON: Vegas Golden Knights; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Vegas Golden Knights. Home-margin range across 3 engines: 0.243905 to 0.717722. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.021405182655144 e-14. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401892481", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.021405182655144e-14, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 2.768165429480382, 3.448419936373277 ], "Primary": [ 2.6614273050964057, 3.3791489611893226 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Regular season 2026-27 verified official game type 2; official start 2026-10-10 10:00 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 3 whole off days; home 1 whole off days.", "official": { "id": 2026020083, "startUTC": "2026-10-11T02:00:00Z", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/VGK/20262027", "stage": 2 }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "Los Angeles Kings", "previousEventId": "401891806", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-07T02:20Z", "previousOpponent": "Florida Panthers", "previousVenue": { "id": "1841", "fullName": "crypto.com Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 4, "offDays": 3, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to T-Mobile Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Vegas Golden Knights", "previousEventId": "401892464", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T02:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "previousVenue": { "id": "5060", "fullName": "T-Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to T-Mobile Arena; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at T-Mobile Arena; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401856808", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Arizona State Sun Devils: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner directions agree across engines.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 25.213333333333335, 28.590833333333332 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.75, 24.083333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.675, 29.025 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5366666666666667, 2.0366666666666666 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 57, "def_drives": 56, "off_points_proxy": 92, "def_points_proxy": 110, "off_plays": 462, "off_yards": 2516, "def_plays": 428, "def_yards": 2356, "early_plays": 308, "early_yards": 1622, "explosive_plays": 32, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858201", "401864497", "401864510", "401864513", "401864578" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 1.6140350877192982, "def_ppd": 1.9642857142857142, "off_ypp": 5.445887445887446, "def_ypp": 5.5046728971962615, "early_down_ypp": 5.266233766233766 }, "home": { "off_drives": 52, "def_drives": 54, "off_points_proxy": 126, "def_points_proxy": 113, "off_plays": 332, "off_yards": 2248, "def_plays": 350, "def_yards": 2067, "early_plays": 237, "early_yards": 1521, "explosive_plays": 36, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401856683", "401856774", "401856812", "401856817" ], "games": 4, "off_ppd": 2.423076923076923, "def_ppd": 2.0925925925925926, "off_ypp": 6.771084337349397, "def_ypp": 5.905714285714286, "early_down_ypp": 6.417721518987341 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight Partly cloudy, with a low around 79. East wind around 5 mph. Saturday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 94. East wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Saturday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4am. Low around 74. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tempe&state=AZ&site=PSR&textField1=33.4147&textField2=-111.909&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401856808", "matchup": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun Devils", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "facts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401860901", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Boise State Broncos: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding. | Fresno State Bulldogs: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "reviewer": "Independent FBS/FCS personnel agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior/current regular-season completed samples checked independently; point forecasts lack calibrated event probabilities. No current-component cap violation found.", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Three engine point scores independently reproduced from retained sporting inputs. ON/OFF share means. Offense matched with opposing defense; primary opponent-adjusted ridge separately fitted. Winner disagreement retained.", "opponent_offense_adverse": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.763205128205133 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 25.733974358974358, 24.708333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 25.4, 24.200000000000003 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.4451282051282043, 1.0548717948717958 ] }, "drive_matchup": { "away": { "off_drives": 55, "def_drives": 56, "off_points_proxy": 158, "def_points_proxy": 102, "off_plays": 433, "off_yards": 2505, "def_plays": 375, "def_yards": 2366, "early_plays": 311, "early_yards": 1689, "explosive_plays": 31, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858433", "401860881", "401860885", "401860897", "401860898" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.8727272727272726, "def_ppd": 1.8214285714285714, "off_ypp": 5.785219399538106, "def_ypp": 6.309333333333333, "early_down_ypp": 5.430868167202572 }, "home": { "off_drives": 62, "def_drives": 60, "off_points_proxy": 142, "def_points_proxy": 78, "off_plays": 404, "off_yards": 2384, "def_plays": 423, "def_yards": 2338, "early_plays": 286, "early_yards": 1578, "explosive_plays": 34, "redzone_drives": 0, "redzone_td": 0, "game_ids": [ "401858436", "401860883", "401860888", "401860891", "401860921" ], "games": 5, "off_ppd": 2.2903225806451615, "def_ppd": 1.3, "off_ypp": 5.900990099009901, "def_ypp": 5.527186761229315, "early_down_ypp": 5.5174825174825175 } }, "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic agent with parent reconciliation" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official NCAA TV slate confirms all46 FBS games, starttimes, venue-neutral Texas/Oklahoma. Last completed team schedules retained for rest; no invented travel-point correction.", "source": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview", "details": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight Clear, with a low around 65. East wind around 5 mph. Saturday Increasing clouds, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. ", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fresno&state=CA&site=HNX&textField1=36.7478&textField2=-119.771&e=1", "status": "VERIFIED_CITY_FORECAST" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "All candidate inputs were sporting-field allowlisted. Prior overnight prices and incidental search snippets exposed; not a blind trial. No fresh prices used in score arithmetic." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Retain three engine disagreements and all qualifying human scenarios. Assess each side/total independently against frozen stress definitions. Missing essential player bounds cannot be treated zero. No forced tier.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] } ], "independent_preprice_review": { "eventId": "401860901", "matchup": "Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs", "risks": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." } ], "otherConditions": "Parent frozen per-event weather/rest/drive findings remain required. No automatic generic risk for unposted FCS final lineups or unavailable calibrated probabilities in spread/total arithmetic.", "notFinalDecision": "No prices read; severity conditional on later branch survival where explicitly marked. Independent post-price audit pending frozen inputs." }, "reconciliation": "Initial broad flags are screening flags, not automatic final market exclusions. Independent event-specific risk register and every recorded branch govern final selection; weather remains separately required." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "facts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ] } ] }, { "eventId": "401898720", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Phoenix Suns: Miles Bridges Day-To-Day, Mark Williams Out | San Antonio Spurs: Malik Williams Day-To-Day, De'Aaron Fox Day-To-Day, Maliq Brown Day-To-Day, Jayden Quaintance Out, Tobias Harris Day-To-Day. Player history and conditional role candidates reviewed; no exact coach-assigned workload or validated lineup-rate delta. Preseason DTD/rest decisions may materially reshape minutes; normalized 240 minute examples are sensitivity only.", "sources": [ { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898720", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.221284+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.360166+00:00" }, { "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898720", "requested": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.221284+00:00", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:12:11.360166+00:00" } ], "review": "COMPLETE_CONDITIONAL_PASS_TRACKING" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 83 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0; home: 82 prior regular / 0 current regular; current weight 0.0. Primary training games=2796. Classic/current preseason excludes exhibitions from regular baseline; Primary explicitly models preseason with 0.35 training weight. Historical precision does not establish event-specific calibrated probability.", "source": "scoring/history-NBA.json" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Classic: San Antonio Spurs; Primary: San Antonio Spurs; Tighten Up Conservative ON: San Antonio Spurs; Tighten Up Conservative OFF: San Antonio Spurs. Home-margin range across 3 engines: -3.569466 to -0.304437. Allfourconfigurations agree on expected-score winner; ON/OFF are one engine. Independent arithmetic max error 1.1368683772161603 e-13. Offensive true effect is null/unestimated; applied numerical delta 0 means withholding unsupported correction, never proven no impact.", "arithmetic": { "eventId": "401898720", "differences": { "Classic": 0.0, "Primary": 1.1368683772161603e-13, "TightenUp": 0.0 }, "status": "PASS", "method": "Classic independently recomputed shrinkage arithmetic; Primary independently reconstructed weighted ridge matrix from sporting history without importing runner; TightenUp independently recomputed registered baseline mean. ON/OFF equality retained." }, "means": { "Classic": [ 113.93446958565971, 113.63003232441963 ], "Primary": [ 114.51582348408283, 110.9463571299281 ], "Tighten Up Conservative ON": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ] }, "winnerAgreement": true }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "2026-27 preseason verified NBA.com; official start 2026-10-10 10:30 PM EDT and team identity cross-check passed. Away 1 whole off days; home 2 whole off days.", "official": { "id": "0012600039", "startUTC": "2026-10-11T02:30:00Z", "source": "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-10", "stage": "Preseason", "isNeutral": false }, "restTravel": { "away": { "team": "San Antonio Spurs", "previousEventId": "401898394", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-09T00:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Atlanta Hawks", "previousVenue": { "id": "780", "fullName": "Frost Bank Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "San Antonio", "state": "TX" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 2, "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Mortgage Matchup Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" }, "home": { "team": "Phoenix Suns", "previousEventId": "401908939", "previousStartUTC": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "previousOpponent": "Chicago Bulls", "previousVenue": { "id": "1847", "fullName": "United Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL" } }, "calendarDaysBetweenGames": 3, "offDays": 2, "travelInference": "Scheduled previous venue to Mortgage Matchup Center; actual itinerary and travel timing unknown" } }, "sourceConflict": null }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor arena at Mortgage Matchup Center; wind/rain are not a direct playing-surface scoring input. Travel conditions not independently measured, no weather coefficient applied.", "source": "Official schedule/venue identity and indoor flag", "weatherAdjustment": null }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting-only collector, official transactions, schedules, injury fields and score candidates reviewed before fresh price retrieval. No market lines/prices read by this desk. Inherited historical price exposure disclosed; not a blind trial. Future eligibility requires strictly better than-400 and unchanged frozen scores.", "preprice": true, "freshPriceExposure": false, "priorExposure": true }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "TRACKING_ONLY: activation restrictions remain in every configuration. Winner agreement alone is not calibrated confidence. Preserve four means, separate unestimated replacement/trade effects, and supported applied delta 0. Any later verified materialrole change needs timestamped new review/freeze. Official roster history/role uncertainty permits disclosedconditional report; it forbids claims of completed numerical replacement calibration.", "decision": "TRACKING_ONLY", "numericOverlay": "UNESTIMATED_EFFECT; ZERO_APPLIED_DELTA; BASE_EQUALS_DISPLAYED_ADJUSTED_WITH_EXPLANATION", "publicationBlocker": false } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "facts": [ "Tracking-only explicit activation absent." ] } ] }, { "eventId": "761858", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official Oct10 status report reviewed; final XI unconfirmed. 2 both-party trade ledger rows linked. Latest competitive reference XI retained; historical vendor stage ambiguities excluded from quantitative score calculation." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered sport engine or comparable validated historical winner cohort. Scope retained without made-up means." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Numeric comparison, scoring range and probabilities unavailable for all four configurations; no engine substitution." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official match metadata start 2026-10-11T02:30:00Z matches sporting slate. BMO Stadium" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Overnight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Calm wind. Saturday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 82. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Saturday Night Showers likely, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 66. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. " }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Prior exposure disclosed. Fresh prices only after immutable freeze; no model derived from market." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Record sporting and market context separately. Unsupported outputs excluded from numeric forecast coverage." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "engine", "facts": [ "No registered engine." ] } ] } ], "reviewers": "Three independent agents plus parent. Multiple named roles share reviewer; seven named desks are not seven independent humans.", "source_limits": { "FBS": { "createdUtc": "2026-10-10T10:20:14.373Z", "status": "PROVISIONAL_COMPARISON_READY_WITH_SELECTION_GATES", "hardArithmeticOrMissingScenarioFailures": [], "explanation": "All 46 events have all-four base/confirmed-adjusted and applicable conditional scenarios; required arithmetic passes. Pending reports, young-player historical endpoints and absent advanced metrics are disclosed selection/model limitations, not universal package defects. No full current-health or statistical-player-effect certification is claimed.", "specificCurrentReplacementLimitations": [ { "eventId": "401858258", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "player": "Danny Lauter", "limitation": "No 2026 season-stat endpoint; only candidate third-QB role, not asserted starter. Nelson actual 0/2 sample and Odom conditional branch retained. Gate PASS if late QB ambiguity remains material." }, { "team": "Rice Owls", "limitation": "No TE receiving leader in captured 2026 leaders; no primary receiving TE identified. Do not invent one. No confirmed TE replacement trigger." } ], "roleConditionalCases": [ { "eventId": "401858256", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "name": "Elijah Lagg", "reason": "Seven catches/76 yards versus Carson Kent 12/157; secondary TE by observed volume, but sufficiently involved to retain primary-role-if-confirmed sensitivity. Overlap with QB change is substantial." }, { "eventId": "401856823", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "name": "Cole Rusk", "reason": "Six catches/86 yards versus Tyler Powell eight/51; receiving-TE allocation is split. Retain conditional primary-option sensitivity; overlaps existing two-WR changes." }, { "eventId": "401856717", "team": "Oklahoma Sooners", "name": "Xavier Robinson", "reason": "13 carries versus Avant42 and Hatton14; secondary committee member. Retain if material ongoing workload confirmed; independent rushing pathway can combine with Harris receiver loss." }, { "eventId": "401858484", "team": "UCLA Bruins", "name": "Mikey Matthews", "reason": "Four catches/88 yards is third WR by yards behind Morgan14 and Rowe11 catches. Retain main-role-if-confirmed sensitivity; low opportunity alone does not settle recent routes." }, { "eventId": "401858255", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "name": "Malachi Hosley", "reason": "16 carries versus Haynes73 and Maddox15; secondary committee role comparable to other reserve. Retain isolated if material workload confirmed; do not assert automatic production deduction." }, { "eventId": "401856713", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "name": "Ethan Davis", "reason": "Three catches/43 yards/two TD versus Brame six/43. Red-zone contribution is visible, primary receiving-TE role is not established. Role-conditional sensitivity overlaps possible QB replacement." }, { "eventId": "401858485", "team": "USC Trojans", "name": "Corey Simms", "reason": "12 catches/178 yards is a material rotation but fourth WR by yards. Retain role-conditional sensitivity; shared target redistribution with Mosley/Bowman prevents automatic three-name multiplication." } ], "availabilityGates": [ { "eventId": "401862795", "team": "Tulane Green Wave", "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" }, { "eventId": "401862795", "team": "Army Black Knights", "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" }, { "eventId": "401866436", "team": "Sacramento State Hornets", "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" }, { "eventId": "401866436", "team": "Bowling Green Falcons", "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" }, { "eventId": "401858482", "team": "Ball State Cardinals", "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" }, { "eventId": "401858482", "team": "Northwestern Wildcats", "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" }, { "eventId": "401862797", "team": "Rice Owls", "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" }, { "eventId": "401862797", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" }, { "eventId": "401866440", "team": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" }, { "eventId": "401866440", "team": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" }, { "eventId": "401858257", "team": "Stanford Cardinal", "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" }, { "eventId": "401858257", "team": "Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" }, { "eventId": "401862796", "team": "Charlotte 49ers", "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" }, { "eventId": "401862796", "team": "North Texas Mean Green", "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" }, { "eventId": "401862799", "team": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane", "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" }, { "eventId": "401862799", "team": "Navy Midshipmen", "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" }, { "eventId": "401866435", "team": "Eastern Michigan Eagles", "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" }, { "eventId": "401866435", "team": "Akron Zips", "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" }, { "eventId": "401866437", "team": "Buffalo Bulls", "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" }, { "eventId": "401866437", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" }, { "eventId": "401866438", "team": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" }, { "eventId": "401866438", "team": "Ohio Bobcats", "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" }, { "eventId": "401866439", "team": "Kent State Golden Flashes", "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" }, { "eventId": "401866439", "team": "Western Michigan Broncos", "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" }, { "eventId": "401861964", "team": "UConn Huskies", "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" }, { "eventId": "401861964", "team": "Temple Owls", "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" }, { "eventId": "401860902", "team": "San Diego State Aztecs", "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" }, { "eventId": "401860902", "team": "Oregon State Beavers", "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" }, { "eventId": "401862798", "team": "UAB Blazers", "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" }, { "eventId": "401862798", "team": "Memphis Tigers", "reason": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" }, { "eventId": "401860901", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" }, { "eventId": "401860901", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "reason": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" }, { "eventId": "401856808", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" }, { "eventId": "401856808", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "reason": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" } ], "historicalMissingComparisons": [ { "eventId": "401856716", "team": "Texas A&M Aggies", "name": "Kiotti Armstrong", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/50", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401856716", "team": "Missouri Tigers", "name": "Ahmad Hardy", "years": [ 2026 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/29", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "confirmed unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401856824", "team": "UCF Knights", "name": "Kaleb Annett", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/71", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858256", "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels", "name": "C.J. Sadler", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/103", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858256", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "name": "Mason Heintschel", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/80", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "confirmed unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401858256", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "name": "Corey Dailey", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/85", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401856823", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "name": "Giovanni Richardson", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/121", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "confirmed unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401856823", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "name": "Isaiah Mizell", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/129", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401856823", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "name": "Brandon Phelps", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/130", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401856823", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "name": "Caleb Smith", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/131", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858260", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "name": "Dylan McCoy", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/763", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858260", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "name": "Preston Douglas", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/140", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401856714", "team": "Florida Gators", "name": "Vernell Brown III", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/156", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "conditional unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401856714", "team": "Florida Gators", "name": "Dallas Wilson", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/162", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401869843", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "name": "JJ Harrell", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/193", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "confirmed unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401869843", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "name": "TJ Johnson", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/195", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "conditional unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401869843", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "name": "Josh Rodriguez", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/201", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401856718", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "name": "JT Lindsey", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/779", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858484", "team": "Oregon Ducks", "name": "Evan Stewart", "years": [ 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/261", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858484", "team": "Oregon Ducks", "name": "Dakorien Moore", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/262", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858259", "team": "California Golden Bears", "name": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/331", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "conditional unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401858259", "team": "California Golden Bears", "name": "Carson Perry-Smith", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/765", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858480", "team": "Illinois Fighting Illini", "name": "Javari Barnett", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/766", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858480", "team": "Michigan State Spartans", "name": "Marvis Parrish", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/363", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858483", "team": "Maryland Terrapins", "name": "Harry Dalton III", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/394", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "confirmed unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401858483", "team": "Maryland Terrapins", "name": "Iverson Howard", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/402", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858483", "team": "Maryland Terrapins", "name": "DeJuan Williams", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/398", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858483", "team": "Maryland Terrapins", "name": "Liam Willson", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/768", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401856713", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "name": "Faizon Brandon", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/422", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "conditional unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401856713", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "name": "George MacIntyre", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/426", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401856715", "team": "LSU Tigers", "name": "Winston Watkins Jr.", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/465", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401864517", "team": "UTEP Miners", "name": "Raymond Moore III", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/474", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401864517", "team": "UTEP Miners", "name": "Braesen Leon", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/475", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401864517", "team": "UTEP Miners", "name": "Elijah McCoy", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/769", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401864517", "team": "UTEP Miners", "name": "Jaden Moore", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/771", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401869943", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "name": "Clayton Coppock Jr.", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/537", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401869943", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "name": "Tristian Gardner", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/538", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401856712", "team": "Georgia Bulldogs", "name": "Bo Walker", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/563", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858485", "team": "USC Trojans", "name": "Trent Mosley", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/585", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "conditional unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401858485", "team": "USC Trojans", "name": "Mark Bowman", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/584", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "conditional unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401858485", "team": "USC Trojans", "name": "Kayden Dixon-Wyatt", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/592", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858485", "team": "USC Trojans", "name": "Tanook Hines", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/594", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858485", "team": "USC Trojans", "name": "Tron Baker", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/595", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858485", "team": "Penn State Nittany Lions", "name": "Koby Howard", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/570", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "confirmed unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401858258", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "name": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/608", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "confirmed unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401858258", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "name": "Danny Lauter", "years": [ 2026 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/773", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401858258", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "name": "Tylik Hill", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/613", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401864516", "team": "Air Force Falcons", "name": "Liam Szarka", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/639", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "confirmed unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401864516", "team": "Air Force Falcons", "name": "Evan Medders", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/641", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401869949", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "name": "Corey Scott", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/663", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "confirmed unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401869949", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "name": "Cole Keller", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/670", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401869949", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "name": "Michael Scott", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/671", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401869965", "team": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns", "name": "Darrell Smith", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/687", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "confirmed unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401869965", "team": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns", "name": "JJ Garner", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/774", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401869965", "team": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns", "name": "Steven Blanco", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/775", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401869965", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "name": "Trey Kukuk", "years": [ 2024 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/676", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "conditional unavailable incumbent" }, { "eventId": "401869965", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "name": "Joshua Brantley", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/776", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" }, { "eventId": "401856827", "team": "Kansas Jayhawks", "name": "Micah Johnson", "years": [ 2024, 2025 ], "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/778", "classification": "Source statistic unavailable, not inferred zero; no statistical point conversion claimed", "currentRole": "replacement candidate" } ], "historyFailureAudit": { "players": 782, "total404": 605, "interpretation": "Retained every failed season request (count in total404). No 404 is transformed into zero production. Some are expected before college careers; explicit official alternatives are summarized below." }, "officialAlternatives": [ { "players": [ "Ahmad Hardy" ], "finding": "Official Missouri bio preserves 2024 ULM 237 carries/1351/13TD and 2025 Missouri256/1649/16TD; offseason recovery and current OUT explain absence of 2026 production.", "url": "https://mutigers.com/sports/football/roster/season/2026/player/ahmad-hardy" }, { "players": [ "Dylan Raiola" ], "finding": "Official Oregon Oct6 preview documents two Nebraska starting seasons and current relief19/25,289yd2TD; previous/current team production remains separate.", "url": "https://goducks.com/news/2026/10/6/football-ducks-host-bruins-in-top-25-battle" }, { "players": [ "Holden Geriner", "Mason Heintschel" ], "finding": "Official coach report identifies ACL absence and Geriner starter with19/26,219yd2TD; no invented prior2024 Heintschel college values.", "url": "https://pittsburghpanthers.com/news/2026/10/5/football-narduzzi-notebook-pitt-looks-ahead-to-north-carolina" }, { "players": [ "Kaleb Annett" ], "finding": "Official transfer central identifies Boise reserve history with no games in2024/25; do not pool high-school production.", "url": "https://ucfknights.com/news/2026/1/4/2026-football-transfer-portal-central" }, { "players": [ "Evan Medders" ], "finding": "Official September preview describes first career game action in2026; prior season no-stat endpoints are absence of college game evidence, not fabricated efficiency zeros.", "url": "https://goairforcefalcons.com/news/2026/9/7/football-game-2-air-force-vs-north-dakota-state" }, { "players": [ "Jackson Brousseau" ], "finding": "Official Cal current relief19/32,200yd2TD confirms candidate current performance; statistical points effect remains unestimated.", "url": "https://calbears.com/news/2026/10/6/football-bears-to-host-hokies-in-berkeley-for-first-time" } ] }, "offense": { "created": "2026-10-10T10:14:06.488087+00:00", "collector": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Offensive-Replacement-Tracking\\capture-20261010T100155Z", "collectorRun": "EXECUTED_CURRENT_EASTERN_DATE", "collectorSummary": { "created_utc": "2026-10-10T10:02:19.145729+00:00", "as_of_date": "2026-10-10", "scope": "Offensive replacement and in-season trade tracking seed; no new wagers or score adjustments issued", "nba_teams": 30, "nba_roster_players": 610, "nba_history_category_rows": 3340, "nba_history_missing_player_seasons": 328, "nba_current_game_rows": 944, "nba_completed_games": 25, "nhl_teams": 32, "nhl_roster_entries": 773, "nhl_offensive_season_rows": 2505, "nhl_current_game_rows": 4824, "nhl_completed_games": 134, "mlb_hitting_season_rows": 2258, "mlb_lineup_records": 2, "fetch_errors": 6, "limits": [ "NBA history/boxes sourced from ESPN; primary confirmation needed for selection-specific inputs", "Missing historical seasons are not zero performance; rookies and transfers require context", "Current-game backfill starts September 1 of the season start year for NBA and NHL", "Line combinations, projected minutes/ice time, shot usage, missing-to-replacement mappings, trade transactions and advanced metrics require event-specific review; not inferred from roster alone", "No live NBA/NHL tier activation; existing tracking-only policy retained", "No market fields retained; prior chat market exposure exists", "Historical traded-team rows retained separately; do not sum aggregate and split rows", "Every ledger row carries explicit transaction-review fields; official trade source, former/new role and separate offensive/defensive analysis are required before a trade adjustment" ], "data_checks": "PASS identity uniqueness, season separation, league team counts; not predictive validation", "replacement_reviews_pending": 44 }, "eventCount": 22, "eventTeamRows": 44, "tradeRows": { "MLB": 106, "NHL": 26, "NBA": 24 }, "bothPartyPairCheck": "PASS", "nhlStageCheck": "PASS14events officially regular, gameType2; preseason excluded from regular history", "sourceFailureReview": [ { "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4997530/stats?seasontype=2", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:01:58.162891+00:00", "error": "HTTP Error 404: Not Found", "player": { "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4997530", "player": "Khalifa Diop", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-08T22:49Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/5/roster?season=2027" }, "retryHasCategories": false }, { "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5148538/stats?seasontype=2", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:01:58.467515+00:00", "error": "HTTP Error 404: Not Found", "player": { "team_id": "6", "team": "Dallas Mavericks", "player_id": "5148538", "player": "Tarik Biberovic", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/6/roster?season=2027" }, "retryHasCategories": false }, { "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5279129/stats?seasontype=2", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:01:58.473855+00:00", "error": "HTTP Error 404: Not Found", "player": { "team_id": "6", "team": "Dallas Mavericks", "player_id": "5279129", "player": "Sergio de Larrea", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/6/roster?season=2027" }, "retryHasCategories": false }, { "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5170949/stats?seasontype=2", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:01:59.596861+00:00", "error": "HTTP Error 404: Not Found", "player": { "team_id": "9", "team": "Golden State Warriors", "player_id": "5170949", "player": "Alex Toohey", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/9/roster?season=2027" }, "retryHasCategories": false }, { "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5231919/stats?seasontype=2", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:02:00.911107+00:00", "error": "HTTP Error 404: Not Found", "player": { "team_id": "29", "team": "Memphis Grizzlies", "player_id": "5231919", "player": "Karim Lopez", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/29/roster?season=2027" }, "retryHasCategories": false }, { "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5214989/stats?seasontype=2", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:02:01.596588+00:00", "error": "HTTP Error 404: Not Found", "player": { "team_id": "15", "team": "Milwaukee Bucks", "player_id": "5214989", "player": "Bogoljub Markovic", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/15/roster?season=2027" }, "retryHasCategories": false } ], "freshSourceLogs": [ "fetch-log.json", "augment-fetch-log.json", "trade-fetch-log.json", "supplement-fetch-log.json", "nba-official-log.json" ], "conditionalPassRisks": [ "MLB8pmET game: official starting orders not yet published. Latest October8completed batting order and active roster candidates reviewed; no confirmed PA or supported run-conversion override. Remain PASS pending refresh.", "NBA7preseason games: uncertain DTD/rest and no validated lineup offense model; conditional240minute sensitivity retains explicit assumptions, not claimed coach rotations. Tracking only.", "NHL14regular games: official first3matchup projections plus TORPaul/Tavares replacement verified; other current rosters/latest official game TOI reviewed conditionally. Exact PP/ESallocation and validated line-rate delta unavailable. Tracking only.", "Both-team trades keep separate offense/defense unestimated where unsupported. No trade -3. Small/zero opportunity cases explicitly recorded." ], "materialBlockersForClaimOfFullyVerifiedNumericOverlay": [ "No calibrated, opportunity-confirmed incremental scoring overlay can be certified from current sources. Do not label all replacements quantified or all starting lineups confirmed.", "Model-specific base/adjusted scores and production gate attachment required before freeze; parent owns attachment." ], "notPackageBlockersByThemselves": [ "An explicitly unestimated effect with completed source/role comparison and PASS/tracking decision", "Early-day unconfirmed starters with both conditional cases and no live selection", "Historical NBA source failures on off-slate players; Toohey roster conflict explicitly quarantined" ], "noFreshMarketExposure": true, "priorExposure": "Inherited historical website context exists; no current quotes read by this desk.", "validationScope": "Identity, season separation, both-party coverage and honesty of conditional/unestimated fields; not predictive calibration" }, "MLS": "Seven unreturned current team splits and27 historical stage anomalies retained; no registered score engine." } }