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Preserve numerical pass but withhold publication until this specific risk is resolved.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SCZ150&warncounty=SCC019&firewxzone=SCZ150&local_place1=Charleston SC&product1=Flood+Watch&lat=32.7852&lon=-79.994", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:50:30.569471+00:00", "numericAdjustment": null, "notClaimed": "No assertion that the stadium is flooded or game canceled; coastal/flash warnings are area/time-specific." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. High near 81. Southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 29, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401867987", "matchup": "South Carolina State Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 37.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867987", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.923129+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.148310+00:00", "home_line": 6.5, "away_line": -6.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 37.5, "under_line": 37.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 174.0, "away_ml": -221.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 13.341666666666669, "production_adjusted": 13.341666666666669, "minimum_all_scenarios": 13.341666666666669, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.589015151515156, 20.761363636363637 ], "directional_buffer": 11.850378787878796, "scenario_minimum": 11.850378787878796 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.603851543846655, 23.821473725990707 ], "directional_buffer": 10.925325269837359, "scenario_minimum": 10.925325269837359 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.341666666666669, "scenario_minimum": 13.341666666666669 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.341666666666669, "scenario_minimum": 13.341666666666669 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.341666666666669, "stressed_buffer": 10.341666666666669 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.341666666666669, "stressed_buffer": 10.341666666666669 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.358333333333327 ], "directional_buffer": 14.629166666666663, "stressed_buffer": 11.629166666666663 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.35833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.875, 21.458333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.46666666666667, 18.883333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.6000000000000014, -2.1000000000000014 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "severe_weather_regime", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Official NWS Flood Watch through late tonight describes widespread1\u20133inch rainfall, locally3\u20136inches and up to2inches/hour rain bands. Game-window/field effect is unestimated and not demonstrated bounded by the ordinary3-point stress. Preserve numerical pass but withhold publication until this specific risk is resolved.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SCZ150&warncounty=SCC019&firewxzone=SCZ150&local_place1=Charleston SC&product1=Flood+Watch&lat=32.7852&lon=-79.994", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:50:30.569471+00:00", "numericAdjustment": null, "notClaimed": "No assertion that the stadium is flooded or game canceled; coastal/flash warnings are area/time-specific." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. High near 81. Southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 29, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401867987", "matchup": "South Carolina State Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "South Carolina State Bulldogs", "line": -6.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867987", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.923129+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.148310+00:00", "home_line": 6.5, "away_line": -6.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 37.5, "under_line": 37.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 174.0, "away_ml": -221.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 8.200000000000003, "production_adjusted": 8.200000000000003, "minimum_all_scenarios": 6.9125000000000085, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.589015151515156, 20.761363636363637 ], "directional_buffer": 1.3276515151515191, "scenario_minimum": 1.3276515151515191 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.603851543846655, 23.821473725990707 ], "directional_buffer": -5.717622182144051, "scenario_minimum": -5.717622182144051 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 8.200000000000003, "scenario_minimum": 8.200000000000003 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 8.200000000000003, "scenario_minimum": 8.200000000000003 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.358333333333327 ], "directional_buffer": 6.9125000000000085, "stressed_buffer": 3.9125000000000085 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 8.200000000000003, "stressed_buffer": 5.200000000000003 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.358333333333327 ], "directional_buffer": 6.9125000000000085, "stressed_buffer": 3.9125000000000085 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.35833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.875, 21.458333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.46666666666667, 18.883333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.6000000000000014, -2.1000000000000014 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "severe_weather_regime", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Official NWS Flood Watch through late tonight describes widespread1\u20133inch rainfall, locally3\u20136inches and up to2inches/hour rain bands. Game-window/field effect is unestimated and not demonstrated bounded by the ordinary3-point stress. Preserve numerical pass but withhold publication until this specific risk is resolved.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SCZ150&warncounty=SCC019&firewxzone=SCZ150&local_place1=Charleston SC&product1=Flood+Watch&lat=32.7852&lon=-79.994", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:50:30.569471+00:00", "numericAdjustment": null, "notClaimed": "No assertion that the stadium is flooded or game canceled; coastal/flash warnings are area/time-specific." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. High near 81. Southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 29, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401867987", "matchup": "South Carolina State Bulldogs at Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 37.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867987", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.923129+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.148310+00:00", "home_line": 6.5, "away_line": -6.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 37.5, "under_line": 37.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 174.0, "away_ml": -221.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 13.341666666666669, "production_adjusted": 13.341666666666669, "minimum_all_scenarios": 13.341666666666669, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.589015151515156, 20.761363636363637 ], "directional_buffer": 11.850378787878796, "scenario_minimum": 11.850378787878796 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.603851543846655, 23.821473725990707 ], "directional_buffer": 10.925325269837359, "scenario_minimum": 10.925325269837359 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.341666666666669, "scenario_minimum": 13.341666666666669 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.341666666666669, "scenario_minimum": 13.341666666666669 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.341666666666669, "stressed_buffer": 10.341666666666669 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 13.341666666666669, "stressed_buffer": 10.341666666666669 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.358333333333327 ], "directional_buffer": 14.629166666666663, "stressed_buffer": 11.629166666666663 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.770833333333336, 19.35833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 27.875, 21.458333333333332 ], "currentMatchup": [ 30.46666666666667, 18.883333333333333 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 3.6000000000000014, -2.1000000000000014 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "severe_weather_regime", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Official NWS Flood Watch through late tonight describes widespread1\u20133inch rainfall, locally3\u20136inches and up to2inches/hour rain bands. Game-window/field effect is unestimated and not demonstrated bounded by the ordinary3-point stress. Preserve numerical pass but withhold publication until this specific risk is resolved.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SCZ150&warncounty=SCC019&firewxzone=SCZ150&local_place1=Charleston SC&product1=Flood+Watch&lat=32.7852&lon=-79.994", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:50:30.569471+00:00", "numericAdjustment": null, "notClaimed": "No assertion that the stadium is flooded or game canceled; coastal/flash warnings are area/time-specific." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Charleston&state=SC&site=CHS&textField1=32.7852&textField2=-79.994&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. High near 81. Southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 29, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. 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Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 37.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.333333333333336, 31.85 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.6700000000000004, 5.17 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clinton&state=SC&site=GSP&textField1=34.4778&textField2=-81.8661&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clinton&state=SC&site=GSP&textField1=34.4778&textField2=-81.8661&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog after 7am. High near 70. Northeast wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 31, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401868221", "matchup": "Davidson Wildcats at Presbyterian Blue Hose", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 57.5, "price": -113.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868221", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.923129+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.126006+00:00", "home_line": -15.5, "away_line": 15.5, "home_line_price": -113.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -870.0, "away_ml": 539.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 3.674999999999997, "production_adjusted": 3.674999999999997, "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.674999999999997, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.867424242424242, 35.384469696969695 ], "directional_buffer": 1.7518939393939377, "scenario_minimum": 1.7518939393939377 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.849575476903546, 41.781386981504774 ], "directional_buffer": 2.1309624584083195, "scenario_minimum": 2.1309624584083195 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "directional_buffer": 3.674999999999997, "scenario_minimum": 3.674999999999997 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "directional_buffer": 3.674999999999997, "scenario_minimum": 3.674999999999997 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "directional_buffer": 3.674999999999997, "stressed_buffer": 0.6749999999999972 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "directional_buffer": 3.674999999999997, "stressed_buffer": 0.6749999999999972 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.663333333333334, 39.595 ], "directional_buffer": 11.758333333333326, "stressed_buffer": 8.758333333333326 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 29.663333333333334, 39.595 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 37.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.333333333333336, 31.85 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.6700000000000004, 5.17 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clinton&state=SC&site=GSP&textField1=34.4778&textField2=-81.8661&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clinton&state=SC&site=GSP&textField1=34.4778&textField2=-81.8661&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. 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Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 37.0 ], "currentMatchup": [ 33.333333333333336, 31.85 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -3.6700000000000004, 5.17 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clinton&state=SC&site=GSP&textField1=34.4778&textField2=-81.8661&e=0" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Clinton&state=SC&site=GSP&textField1=34.4778&textField2=-81.8661&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. 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New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.", "maxForecastGustMph": 24, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Rice Owls", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] }, { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "facts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401862797", "matchup": "Rice Owls at East Carolina Pirates", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 46.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862797", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.156333+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.388316+00:00", "home_line": -10.0, "away_line": 10.0, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 46.5, "under_line": 46.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -380.0, "away_ml": 300.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 5.141666666666666, "production_adjusted": 5.141666666666666, "minimum_all_scenarios": 5.141666666666666, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "directional_buffer": 4.022727272727266, "scenario_minimum": 4.022727272727266 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "directional_buffer": 2.7496691671093103, "scenario_minimum": 2.7496691671093103 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.141666666666666, "scenario_minimum": 5.141666666666666 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.141666666666666, "scenario_minimum": 5.141666666666666 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.141666666666666, "stressed_buffer": 2.1416666666666657 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.141666666666666, "stressed_buffer": 2.1416666666666657 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 18.251666666666665, 34.160833333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 5.912500000000001, "stressed_buffer": 2.9125000000000014 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 18.251666666666665, 34.160833333333336 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.541666666666664, 28.041666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.133333333333333, 30.583333333333332 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5899999999999995, 2.0899999999999994 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntsville&state=AL&site=HUN&textField1=34.707&textField2=-86.6277&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntsville&state=AL&site=HUN&textField1=34.707&textField2=-86.6277&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-05:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. 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Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.541666666666664, 28.041666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 24.133333333333333, 30.583333333333332 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.5899999999999995, 2.0899999999999994 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntsville&state=AL&site=HUN&textField1=34.707&textField2=-86.6277&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Huntsville&state=AL&site=HUN&textField1=34.707&textField2=-86.6277&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T12:00:00-05:00", "window": "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 72. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 45, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401868300", "matchup": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Alabama A&M Bulldogs", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 48.5, "price": -113.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868300", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.593347+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.829453+00:00", "home_line": -3.0, "away_line": 3.0, "home_line_price": -120.0, "away_line_price": -103.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -113.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -168.0, "away_ml": 135.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 10.149999999999999, "production_adjusted": 10.149999999999999, "minimum_all_scenarios": 10.149999999999999, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.08901515151515, 30.191287878787875 ], "directional_buffer": 8.780303030303024, "scenario_minimum": 8.780303030303024 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 24.296713775245237, 33.38541149000864 ], "directional_buffer": 9.18212526525388, "scenario_minimum": 9.18212526525388 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "directional_buffer": 10.149999999999999, "scenario_minimum": 10.149999999999999 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "directional_buffer": 10.149999999999999, "scenario_minimum": 10.149999999999999 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "directional_buffer": 10.149999999999999, "stressed_buffer": 7.149999999999999 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "directional_buffer": 10.149999999999999, "stressed_buffer": 7.149999999999999 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.951666666666664, 31.4025 ], "directional_buffer": 13.854166666666664, "stressed_buffer": 10.854166666666664 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.951666666666664, 31.4025 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 73. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 40, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "kind": "availability", "facts": [ "Sparse FCS availability, observed roles are not a final active list. 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No unsupported healthy assumption." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401869843", "matchup": "Old Dominion Monarchs at App State Mountaineers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "line": 10.0, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869843", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.623379+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.898789+00:00", "home_line": -10.0, "away_line": 10.0, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -375.0, "away_ml": 295.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 5.267499999999998, "production_adjusted": 2.2674999999999983, "minimum_all_scenarios": -0.7325000000000017, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "directional_buffer": 5.145454545454541, "scenario_minimum": 2.145454545454541 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "directional_buffer": 1.4583732070312223, "scenario_minimum": -1.5416267929687777 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2674999999999983, "scenario_minimum": -0.7325000000000017 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2674999999999983, "scenario_minimum": -0.7325000000000017 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 19.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": -0.7325000000000017, "stressed_buffer": -3.7325000000000017 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 19.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": -0.7325000000000017, "stressed_buffer": -3.7325000000000017 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 2.2674999999999983, "stressed_buffer": -0.7325000000000017 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 5.267499999999998, "stressed_buffer": 2.2674999999999983 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 24.53166666666667, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 4.380000000000003, "stressed_buffer": 1.3800000000000026 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 27.53166666666667, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 7.380000000000003, "stressed_buffer": 4.380000000000003 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 30.53166666666667, 30.151666666666667 ], "directional_buffer": 10.380000000000003, "stressed_buffer": 7.380000000000003 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 30.531666666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "favoriteSurvives": false, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.25, 22.291666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 21.025, 33.575 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.7183333333333334, 2.2183333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "names": [ "TJ Johnson" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "names": [ "JJ Harrell" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Boone&state=NC&site=RNK&textField1=36.2095&textField2=-81.6699&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 3, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Game-period city forecast includes gusts at least40mph; three-point ordinary stress does not bound this unestimated condition", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Boone&state=NC&site=RNK&textField1=36.2095&textField2=-81.6699&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers, mainly after 7am. The rain could be heavy at times. 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Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx" }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } } ], "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Norfolk&state=VA&site=AKQ&textField1=36.8473&textField2=-76.2853&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:00:00-04:00", "window": "Cloudy, with a high near 74. 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East wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 23, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401867974", "matchup": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Norfolk State Spartans", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Norfolk State Spartans", "names": [ "Deljay Bailey" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. 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No repeated empirical penalty; human -3 explicitly additional scenario only." ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401868095", "matchup": "Idaho Vandals at Weber State Wildcats", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 69.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868095", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.116651+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.340107+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -103.0, "away_line_price": -121.0, "total": 69.5, "under_line": 69.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 112.0, "away_ml": -139.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 3.9083333333333314, "production_adjusted": 3.9083333333333314, "minimum_all_scenarios": 3.4166666666666714, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 32.28219696969697 ], "directional_buffer": 5.785984848484851, "scenario_minimum": 5.785984848484851 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 35.54927689695486 ], "directional_buffer": 5.630455571986843, "scenario_minimum": 5.630455571986843 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 3.9083333333333314, "scenario_minimum": 3.9083333333333314 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 3.9083333333333314, "scenario_minimum": 3.9083333333333314 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.88999999999999, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 3.4166666666666714, "stressed_buffer": 0.4166666666666714 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 6.908333333333331, "stressed_buffer": 3.9083333333333314 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 3.9083333333333314, "stressed_buffer": 0.9083333333333314 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.88999999999999, 30.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 6.416666666666671, "stressed_buffer": 3.4166666666666714 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.88999999999999, 33.193333333333335 ], "directional_buffer": 3.4166666666666714, "stressed_buffer": 0.4166666666666714 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 32.89, 33.193333333333335 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 31.75, 24.75 ], "currentMatchup": [ 32.733333333333334, 38.95 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 0.156666666666667, 1.343333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Weber State Wildcats", "names": [ "Marvin Session" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00" }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ogden&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=41.2231&textField2=-111.973&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ogden&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=41.2231&textField2=-111.973&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T13:00:00-06:00", "window": "A chance of showers before 9am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 9am and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. 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Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0" } ], "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:00:00-05:00", "window": "Sunny, with a high near 85. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 30, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401868360", "matchup": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Alcorn State Braves", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0" } ], "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:00:00-05:00", "window": "Sunny, with a high near 85. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 30, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401868360", "matchup": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Alcorn State Braves", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0" } ], "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:00:00-05:00", "window": "Sunny, with a high near 85. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 30, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401868360", "matchup": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Alcorn State Braves", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MISSING_COMPLETE_PAIRED_QUOTE" ], "selection": null, "quote": null, "buffer": null, "stress": null, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "sample_cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Registered50% current component exceeds25% cap with1\u20133 games; no coefficient change authorized." }, { "type": "cross_division_sample", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Non-DI opponent history incomplete and competition-strength transfer uncertain. Explicit +/-7 class term is inherited, not validated cross-division calibration.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "cross_class", "severity": "HIGH", "reason": "Frozen cross-class essential sample gap", "evidence": { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "cross_class", "facts": [ "Non-Division-I opponent sample/class and market limits; descriptive research only." ] } }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0" } ], "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T14:00:00-05:00", "window": "Sunny, with a high near 85. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 30, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." } }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401868382", "matchup": "Western Carolina Catamounts at Mercer Bears", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Mercer Bears", "line": -6.0, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868382", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.152035+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.394891+00:00", "home_line": -6.0, "away_line": 6.0, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 57.5, "under_line": 57.5, "over_price": -119.0, "under_price": -104.0, "home_ml": -233.0, "away_ml": 183.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 4.837499999999995, "production_adjusted": 4.837499999999995, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.6916666666666593, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6875, "scenario_minimum": 0.6875 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "directional_buffer": 7.0226168502978155, "scenario_minimum": 7.0226168502978155 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 4.837499999999995, "scenario_minimum": 4.837499999999995 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 4.837499999999995, "scenario_minimum": 4.837499999999995 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.966666666666672, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6916666666666593, "stressed_buffer": -1.3083333333333407 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 4.837499999999995, "stressed_buffer": 1.837499999999995 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.966666666666672, 37.65833333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6916666666666593, "stressed_buffer": -1.3083333333333407 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 29.966666666666672, 37.65833333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Southeast wind 3 to 8 mph. A chance of rain and thunderstorms, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Low around 58. Southeast wind around 7 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. 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East wind 3 to 7 mph. Showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after midnight. Low around 56. East wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 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Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 23.375, 25.666666666666668 ], "currentMatchup": [ 22.200000000000003, 26.1 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -1.2383333333333333, 2.7383333333333333 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "source_or_role_gap", "team": "Ohio Bobcats", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "resolve": "Current official availability/role evidence or a specifically documented bounded scenario; a generic3point deduction cannot repair missing identities." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Athens&state=OH&site=RLX&textField1=39.3242&textField2=-82.0961&e=0" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Athens&state=OH&site=RLX&textField1=39.3242&textField2=-82.0961&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T15:30:00-04:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. 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Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. 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Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Ohio State Buckeyes", "names": [ "Brandon Inniss" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. 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Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lexington&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=38.0427&textField2=-84.4595&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lexington&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=38.0427&textField2=-84.4595&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. 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Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.125, 20.666666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 35.2, 24.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.751666666666667, -1.251666666666667 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "LSU Tigers", "names": [ "Trey'Dez Green" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lexington&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=38.0427&textField2=-84.4595&e=1" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lexington&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=38.0427&textField2=-84.4595&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. 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New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 32, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401856715", "matchup": "LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Kentucky Wildcats", "line": 8.5, "price": -108.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856715", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.764552+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.953185+00:00", "home_line": 8.5, "away_line": -8.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 50.5, "under_line": 50.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 275.0, "away_ml": -345.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": -2.3825000000000003, "production_adjusted": 0.6174999999999997, "minimum_all_scenarios": -2.3825000000000003, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "directional_buffer": 6.431818181818183, "scenario_minimum": 3.4318181818181834 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "directional_buffer": 14.242995049496486, "scenario_minimum": 11.242995049496486 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6174999999999997, "scenario_minimum": -2.3825000000000003 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6174999999999997, "scenario_minimum": -2.3825000000000003 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": -2.3825000000000003, "stressed_buffer": -5.3825 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.6174999999999997, "stressed_buffer": -2.3825000000000003 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": -2.3825000000000003, "stressed_buffer": -5.3825 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.414166666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 2.734166666666667, "stressed_buffer": -0.26583333333333314 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.41416666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": -0.26583333333333314, "stressed_buffer": -3.265833333333333 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.41416666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.125, 20.666666666666664 ], "currentMatchup": [ 35.2, 24.9 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 2.751666666666667, -1.251666666666667 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "LSU Tigers", "names": [ "Trey'Dez Green" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lexington&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=38.0427&textField2=-84.4595&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lexington&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=38.0427&textField2=-84.4595&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. 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New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 32, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401856715", "matchup": "LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 50.5, "price": -115.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856715", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.764552+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.953185+00:00", "home_line": 8.5, "away_line": -8.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 50.5, "under_line": 50.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 275.0, "away_ml": -345.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 3.445833333333333, "production_adjusted": 0.44583333333333286, "minimum_all_scenarios": 0.44583333333333286, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "directional_buffer": -1.75, "scenario_minimum": -1.75 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "directional_buffer": -2.8413019411134286, "scenario_minimum": -2.8413019411134286 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.44583333333333286, "scenario_minimum": 0.44583333333333286 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.44583333333333286, "scenario_minimum": 0.44583333333333286 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.44583333333333286, "stressed_buffer": -2.554166666666667 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 0.44583333333333286, "stressed_buffer": -2.554166666666667 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "directional_buffer": 3.445833333333333, "stressed_buffer": 0.44583333333333286 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 29.414166666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 2.5625, "stressed_buffer": -0.4375 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 32.41416666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "directional_buffer": 5.5625, "stressed_buffer": 2.5625 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 32.41416666666667, 23.648333333333333 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. 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Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lexington&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=38.0427&textField2=-84.4595&e=1" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Classic", "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lexington&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=38.0427&textField2=-84.4595&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:00:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. 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Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "replacement_experience", "team": "Air Force Falcons", "severity": "MEDIUM", "hardGate": false, "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Medders seven pass attempts/current first action; option-execution replacement uncertainty.", "pointAdjustment": null }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dekalb&state=IL&site=LOT&textField1=41.8926&textField2=-88.7585&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:30:00-05:00", "window": "Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 55. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.", "maxForecastGustMph": 20, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401869949", "matchup": "James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern Eagles", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "line": -7.5, "price": -105.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869949", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.436048+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.627949+00:00", "home_line": 7.5, "away_line": -7.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 250.0, "away_ml": -310.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 17.277692307692305, "production_adjusted": 17.277692307692305, "minimum_all_scenarios": 12.85782051282051, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "directional_buffer": 5.534965034965033, "scenario_minimum": 2.5349650349650332 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "directional_buffer": -2.542609867419948, "scenario_minimum": -5.542609867419948 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 17.277692307692305, "scenario_minimum": 14.277692307692305 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 17.277692307692305, "scenario_minimum": 14.277692307692305 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": 12.85782051282051, "stressed_buffer": 9.85782051282051 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 17.277692307692305, "stressed_buffer": 14.277692307692305 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 14.277692307692305, "stressed_buffer": 11.277692307692305 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 20.277692307692305, "stressed_buffer": 17.277692307692305 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 17.277692307692305, "stressed_buffer": 14.277692307692305 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 14.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": 15.85782051282051, "stressed_buffer": 12.85782051282051 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": 12.85782051282051, "stressed_buffer": 9.85782051282051 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 14.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": 18.85782051282051, "stressed_buffer": 15.85782051282051 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": 15.85782051282051, "stressed_buffer": 12.85782051282051 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "currentMatchup": [ 34.3, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 5.839487179487179, -4.339487179487179 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "names": [ "Corey Scott" ], "severity": "LOW", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "names": [ "Ashton Hollins" ], "severity": "LOW", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "severe_weather_regime", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Official NWS Flood Watch through late tonight describes widespread1\u20133inch rainfall, locally3\u20136inches and up to2inches/hour rain bands. Game-window/field effect is unestimated and not demonstrated bounded by the ordinary3-point stress. Preserve numerical pass but withhold publication until this specific risk is resolved.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=GAZ100&warncounty=GAC031&firewxzone=GAZ100&local_place1=Statesboro GA&product1=Flood+Watch&lat=32.4424&lon=-81.7792", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:50:30.649710+00:00", "numericAdjustment": null, "notClaimed": "No assertion that the stadium is flooded or game canceled; coastal/flash warnings are area/time-specific." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Statesboro&state=GA&site=CHS&textField1=32.4424&textField2=-81.7792&e=1" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Statesboro&state=GA&site=CHS&textField1=32.4424&textField2=-81.7792&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:30:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2am and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Low around 69. Southeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 24, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401869949", "matchup": "James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern Eagles", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 51.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869949", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.436048+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.627949+00:00", "home_line": 7.5, "away_line": -7.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 250.0, "away_ml": -310.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": -5.438461538461539, "production_adjusted": 0.5615384615384613, "minimum_all_scenarios": -6.858333333333334, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "directional_buffer": 1.8671328671328737, "scenario_minimum": -4.132867132867126 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6234779381968991, "scenario_minimum": -4.376522061803101 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 0.5615384615384613, "scenario_minimum": -5.438461538461539 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 0.5615384615384613, "scenario_minimum": -5.438461538461539 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": -6.858333333333334, "stressed_buffer": -9.858333333333334 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 0.5615384615384613, "stressed_buffer": -2.4384615384615387 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": -2.4384615384615387, "stressed_buffer": -5.438461538461539 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": -2.4384615384615387, "stressed_buffer": -5.438461538461539 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": -5.438461538461539, "stressed_buffer": -8.438461538461539 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 14.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": -0.8583333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -3.8583333333333343 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": -3.8583333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -6.858333333333334 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 14.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": -3.8583333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -6.858333333333334 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": -6.858333333333334, "stressed_buffer": -9.858333333333334 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "currentMatchup": [ 34.3, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 5.839487179487179, -4.339487179487179 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "names": [ "Corey Scott" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "names": [ "Ashton Hollins" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "severe_weather_regime", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Official NWS Flood Watch through late tonight describes widespread1\u20133inch rainfall, locally3\u20136inches and up to2inches/hour rain bands. Game-window/field effect is unestimated and not demonstrated bounded by the ordinary3-point stress. Preserve numerical pass but withhold publication until this specific risk is resolved.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=GAZ100&warncounty=GAC031&firewxzone=GAZ100&local_place1=Statesboro GA&product1=Flood+Watch&lat=32.4424&lon=-81.7792", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:50:30.649710+00:00", "numericAdjustment": null, "notClaimed": "No assertion that the stadium is flooded or game canceled; coastal/flash warnings are area/time-specific." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Statesboro&state=GA&site=CHS&textField1=32.4424&textField2=-81.7792&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 3, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Statesboro&state=GA&site=CHS&textField1=32.4424&textField2=-81.7792&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:30:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2am and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Low around 69. Southeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 24, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401869949", "matchup": "James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern Eagles", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "away", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "line": -7.5, "price": -105.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869949", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.436048+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.627949+00:00", "home_line": 7.5, "away_line": -7.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 250.0, "away_ml": -310.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 3, "base": 17.277692307692305, "production_adjusted": 17.277692307692305, "minimum_all_scenarios": 12.85782051282051, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "directional_buffer": 5.534965034965033, "scenario_minimum": 2.5349650349650332 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "directional_buffer": -2.542609867419948, "scenario_minimum": -5.542609867419948 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 17.277692307692305, "scenario_minimum": 14.277692307692305 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 17.277692307692305, "scenario_minimum": 14.277692307692305 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": true, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": 12.85782051282051, "stressed_buffer": 9.85782051282051 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 17.277692307692305, "stressed_buffer": 14.277692307692305 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 14.277692307692305, "stressed_buffer": 11.277692307692305 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 20.277692307692305, "stressed_buffer": 17.277692307692305 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 17.277692307692305, "stressed_buffer": 14.277692307692305 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 14.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": 15.85782051282051, "stressed_buffer": 12.85782051282051 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": 12.85782051282051, "stressed_buffer": 9.85782051282051 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 14.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": 18.85782051282051, "stressed_buffer": 15.85782051282051 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": 15.85782051282051, "stressed_buffer": 12.85782051282051 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "currentMatchup": [ 34.3, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 5.839487179487179, -4.339487179487179 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": true }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "names": [ "Corey Scott" ], "severity": "LOW", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "names": [ "Ashton Hollins" ], "severity": "LOW", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "severe_weather_regime", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Official NWS Flood Watch through late tonight describes widespread1\u20133inch rainfall, locally3\u20136inches and up to2inches/hour rain bands. Game-window/field effect is unestimated and not demonstrated bounded by the ordinary3-point stress. Preserve numerical pass but withhold publication until this specific risk is resolved.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=GAZ100&warncounty=GAC031&firewxzone=GAZ100&local_place1=Statesboro GA&product1=Flood+Watch&lat=32.4424&lon=-81.7792", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:50:30.649710+00:00", "numericAdjustment": null, "notClaimed": "No assertion that the stadium is flooded or game canceled; coastal/flash warnings are area/time-specific." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Statesboro&state=GA&site=CHS&textField1=32.4424&textField2=-81.7792&e=1" }, { "type": "engine_direction_disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Independent registered engine opposes this price-specific selection", "models": [ "Primary" ] } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "one_tier_downgrade": true, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Statesboro&state=GA&site=CHS&textField1=32.4424&textField2=-81.7792&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:30:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2am and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Low around 69. Southeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 24, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401869949", "matchup": "James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern Eagles", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "under", "line": 51.5, "price": -110.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869949", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.436048+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.627949+00:00", "home_line": 7.5, "away_line": -7.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 51.5, "under_line": 51.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 250.0, "away_ml": -310.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": -5.438461538461539, "production_adjusted": 0.5615384615384613, "minimum_all_scenarios": -6.858333333333334, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "directional_buffer": 1.8671328671328737, "scenario_minimum": -4.132867132867126 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "directional_buffer": 1.6234779381968991, "scenario_minimum": -4.376522061803101 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 0.5615384615384613, "scenario_minimum": -5.438461538461539 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 0.5615384615384613, "scenario_minimum": -5.438461538461539 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": -6.858333333333334, "stressed_buffer": -9.858333333333334 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": 0.5615384615384613, "stressed_buffer": -2.4384615384615387 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": -2.4384615384615387, "stressed_buffer": -5.438461538461539 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": -2.4384615384615387, "stressed_buffer": -5.438461538461539 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "directional_buffer": -5.438461538461539, "stressed_buffer": -8.438461538461539 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 14.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": -0.8583333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -3.8583333333333343 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 37.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": -3.8583333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -6.858333333333334 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 14.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": -3.8583333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -6.858333333333334 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "directional_buffer": -6.858333333333334, "stressed_buffer": -9.858333333333334 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "away", "scorePair": [ 40.85807692307692, 17.500256410256412 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "currentMatchup": [ 34.3, 19.0 ], "registeredCorrections": [ 5.839487179487179, -4.339487179487179 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "names": [ "Corey Scott" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "names": [ "Ashton Hollins" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "severe_weather_regime", "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": true, "reason": "Official NWS Flood Watch through late tonight describes widespread1\u20133inch rainfall, locally3\u20136inches and up to2inches/hour rain bands. Game-window/field effect is unestimated and not demonstrated bounded by the ordinary3-point stress. Preserve numerical pass but withhold publication until this specific risk is resolved.", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=GAZ100&warncounty=GAC031&firewxzone=GAZ100&local_place1=Statesboro GA&product1=Flood+Watch&lat=32.4424&lon=-81.7792", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:50:30.649710+00:00", "numericAdjustment": null, "notClaimed": "No assertion that the stadium is flooded or game canceled; coastal/flash warnings are area/time-specific." }, { "type": "playing_conditions", "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Statesboro&state=GA&site=CHS&textField1=32.4424&textField2=-81.7792&e=1" } ], "unresolved_high": 3, "unresolved_medium": 1, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Game-period wind/rain/storm exposure remains qualitative; no unsupported weather point conversion", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Statesboro&state=GA&site=CHS&textField1=32.4424&textField2=-81.7792&e=1", "localStart": "2026-10-10T19:30:00-04:00", "window": "Showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2am and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Low around 69. Southeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.", "maxForecastGustMph": 24, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401869965", "matchup": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "FAVORITE_FAILS_OPPONENT_OFFENSE_CASE", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "home", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "line": -3.0, "price": -112.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869965", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.465743+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.690250+00:00", "home_line": -3.0, "away_line": 3.0, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -102.0, "under_price": -118.0, "home_ml": -155.0, "away_ml": 130.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 4, "base": 1.4024999999999963, "production_adjusted": 4.402499999999996, "minimum_all_scenarios": -4.0433333333333366, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "directional_buffer": 3.368181818181821, "scenario_minimum": -2.631818181818179 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "directional_buffer": 11.109667381791489, "scenario_minimum": 5.109667381791489 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 4.402499999999996, "scenario_minimum": -1.5975000000000037 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 4.402499999999996, "scenario_minimum": -1.5975000000000037 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">0", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.455000000000002, 27.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": -4.0433333333333366, "stressed_buffer": -7.0433333333333366 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 23.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 1.4024999999999963, "stressed_buffer": -1.5975000000000037 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 4.402499999999996, "stressed_buffer": 1.4024999999999963 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": -1.5975000000000037, "stressed_buffer": -4.597500000000004 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 1.4024999999999963, "stressed_buffer": -1.5975000000000037 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.455000000000002, 27.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": -1.0433333333333366, "stressed_buffer": -4.0433333333333366 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.455000000000002, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 1.9566666666666634, "stressed_buffer": -1.0433333333333366 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.455000000000002, 27.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": -4.0433333333333366, "stressed_buffer": -7.0433333333333366 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.455000000000002, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": -1.0433333333333366, "stressed_buffer": -4.0433333333333366 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 28.455000000000002, 30.411666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.208333333333332, 28.833333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.1, 27.7 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.6450000000000004, 2.1450000000000005 ] }, "selected_favorite_survives_opponent_case": false }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns", "names": [ "Darrell Smith" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "names": [ "Trey Kukuk" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ruston&state=LA&site=SHV&textField1=32.5318&textField2=-92.6396&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:30:00-05:00", "window": "Clear, with a low around 62. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph after midnight.", "maxForecastGustMph": 0, "numericAdjustment": null, "limitation": "City forecast period is not an hourly stadium observation; no point effect estimated." }, "frozen_screening_flags": [ { "severity": "HIGH_UNTIL_BRANCH_RESOLVED", "kind": "availability", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "facts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trey Kukuk" ] } ], "reconciliation": "Broad preliminary availability flags are reconciled against named independent reviews and actual branch survival; confirmed absence alone is not unresolved medium availability." }, "potential_tier": null, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "publication_status": "NOT_AUTHORIZATION_TO_PUBLISH_COMPLETE_PACKAGE" }, { "event_id": "401869965", "matchup": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "PASS", "reasons": [ "MEAN_BUFFER_BELOW_CONFIGURED_FLOOR", "RECORDED_BRANCH_OR_THREE_POINT_STRESS_FAIL", "UNRESOLVED_HIGH_RISK" ], "selection": { "side": "over", "line": 48.5, "price": -102.0 }, "quote": { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869965", "requested_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.465743+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.690250+00:00", "home_line": -3.0, "away_line": 3.0, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 48.5, "under_line": 48.5, "over_price": -102.0, "under_price": -118.0, "home_ml": -155.0, "away_ml": 130.0, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true }, "buffer": { "required_mean_floor": 5, "base": 7.920833333333334, "production_adjusted": 4.920833333333334, "minimum_all_scenarios": 1.9208333333333343, "all_four_comparison": { "Classic": { "adjusted_score": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "directional_buffer": 2.8136363636363626, "scenario_minimum": -0.1863636363636374 }, "Primary": { "adjusted_score": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "directional_buffer": 0.28384056759184517, "scenario_minimum": -2.716159432408155 }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 4.920833333333334, "scenario_minimum": 1.9208333333333343 }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "adjusted_score": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 4.920833333333334, "scenario_minimum": 1.9208333333333343 } } }, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "required_stressed_buffer": ">=1", "survives": false, "worst": { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 23.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 1.9208333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -1.0791666666666657 }, "scenarios": [ { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 23.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 1.9208333333333343, "stressed_buffer": -1.0791666666666657 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 4.920833333333334, "stressed_buffer": 1.9208333333333343 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 4.920833333333334, "stressed_buffer": 1.9208333333333343 }, { "kind": "recorded_or_cross_team_combination", "score": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 7.920833333333334, "stressed_buffer": 4.920833333333334 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.455000000000002, 27.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 4.366666666666667, "stressed_buffer": 1.3666666666666671 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 25.455000000000002, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 7.366666666666667, "stressed_buffer": 4.366666666666667 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.455000000000002, 27.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 7.366666666666667, "stressed_buffer": 4.366666666666667 }, { "kind": "opponent_offense_reference_plus_recorded_availability", "score": [ 28.455000000000002, 30.411666666666665 ], "directional_buffer": 10.366666666666667, "stressed_buffer": 7.366666666666667 } ], "opponent_reference": { "favoriteSide": "home", "scorePair": [ 28.455000000000002, 30.411666666666665 ], "favoriteSurvives": true, "reference": "Opponent offense raised to maximum of registered mean, prior matchup, current matchup; retain existing mismatch/class/venue terms and clipping. Qualitative adverse scenario; no coefficient change. Parent must apply actual replacement deltas afterward.", "priorMatchup": [ 24.208333333333332, 28.833333333333336 ], "currentMatchup": [ 29.1, 27.7 ], "registeredCorrections": [ -0.6450000000000004, 2.1450000000000005 ] } }, "riskdetails": { "records": [ { "type": "known_absence_scenario", "team": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns", "names": [ "Darrell Smith" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "reason": "Known absence is not unresolved availability by itself. Apply registered baseline plus authorized overlay; additional replacement statistical effect unestimated and specific novice/identity concerns assessed separately." }, { "type": "conditional_availability", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "names": [ "Trey Kukuk" ], "severity": "HIGH", "hardGate": false, "residualSeverityIfBranchesSurvive": "MEDIUM", "onBlocksResidualAvailability": true, "reason": "Named status is unresolved; retain available/unavailable and joint/overlap scenarios, test each with adverse stress. No availability probability assigned." } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "one_tier_downgrade": false, "weather": { "severity": "LOW", "reason": "No material adverse playing condition identified in retained game-period city forecast", "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ruston&state=LA&site=SHV&textField1=32.5318&textField2=-92.6396&e=0", "localStart": "2026-10-10T18:30:00-05:00", "window": "Clear, with a low around 62. 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