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      "total_error": 2.0457495476016616,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892466",
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      "sport": "NHL",
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      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892466",
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "engine": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7",
      "sport": "NHL",
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        3.10975
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      "actual": [
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      "winner_correct": true,
      "team_score_mae": 0.996945,
      "margin_error": 1.77439,
      "total_error": 1.9938900000000004,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892466",
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "engine": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7",
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      "margin_error": 1.77439,
      "total_error": 1.9938900000000004,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892466",
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "engine": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7",
      "sport": "NHL",
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      "winner_correct": true,
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      "margin_error": 1.77439,
      "total_error": 1.9938900000000004,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892466",
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "engine": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7",
      "sport": "NHL",
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      "team_score_mae": 0.996945,
      "margin_error": 1.77439,
      "total_error": 1.9938900000000004,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892467",
      "model": "Classic",
      "engine": "classic-2.0.0",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "predicted": [
        3.3253510716925354,
        3.2941518847006654
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      "actual": [
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        3
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      "winner_correct": false,
      "team_score_mae": 0.8097514781966004,
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      "total_error": 1.6195029563932009,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892467",
      "model": "Classic",
      "engine": "classic-2.0.0",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "predicted": [
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        3.2941518847006654
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      "actual": [
        2,
        3
      ],
      "winner_correct": false,
      "team_score_mae": 0.8097514781966004,
      "margin_error": 1.03119918699187,
      "total_error": 1.6195029563932009,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892467",
      "model": "Primary",
      "engine": "primary-2.0.0",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "predicted": [
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      "actual": [
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      "winner_correct": true,
      "team_score_mae": 0.8430129664670094,
      "margin_error": 0.909504527564601,
      "total_error": 1.6860259329340188,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892467",
      "model": "Primary",
      "engine": "primary-2.0.0",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "predicted": [
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        3.388260702684709
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      "actual": [
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        3
      ],
      "winner_correct": true,
      "team_score_mae": 0.8430129664670094,
      "margin_error": 0.909504527564601,
      "total_error": 1.6860259329340188,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892467",
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "engine": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "predicted": [
        3.298775,
        3.07317
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      "actual": [
        2,
        3
      ],
      "winner_correct": false,
      "team_score_mae": 0.6859725000000001,
      "margin_error": 1.2256049999999998,
      "total_error": 1.3719450000000002,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892467",
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "engine": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "predicted": [
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        3.07317
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      "actual": [
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        3
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      "winner_correct": false,
      "team_score_mae": 0.6859725000000001,
      "margin_error": 1.2256049999999998,
      "total_error": 1.3719450000000002,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892467",
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "engine": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "predicted": [
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        3
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      "total_error": 1.3719450000000002,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892467",
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "engine": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7",
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      "team_score_mae": 0.6859725000000001,
      "margin_error": 1.2256049999999998,
      "total_error": 1.3719450000000002,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892468",
      "model": "Classic",
      "engine": "classic-2.0.0",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "predicted": [
        3.0726316719688938,
        3.2682131495227997
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      "actual": [
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      "team_score_mae": 2.097790738776953,
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      "total_error": 0.34084482149169304,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892468",
      "model": "Classic",
      "engine": "classic-2.0.0",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "predicted": [
        3.0726316719688938,
        3.2682131495227997
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      "team_score_mae": 2.097790738776953,
      "margin_error": 4.195581477553906,
      "total_error": 0.34084482149169304,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892468",
      "model": "Primary",
      "engine": "primary-2.0.0",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "predicted": [
        2.975472518076778,
        3.3018280762447207
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      "actual": [
        5,
        1
      ],
      "winner_correct": false,
      "team_score_mae": 2.1631777790839717,
      "margin_error": 4.326355558167943,
      "total_error": 0.277300594321499,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892468",
      "model": "Primary",
      "engine": "primary-2.0.0",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "predicted": [
        2.975472518076778,
        3.3018280762447207
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      "actual": [
        5,
        1
      ],
      "winner_correct": false,
      "team_score_mae": 2.1631777790839717,
      "margin_error": 4.326355558167943,
      "total_error": 0.277300594321499,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892468",
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "engine": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "predicted": [
        3.176825,
        3.1524349999999997
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      "actual": [
        5,
        1
      ],
      "winner_correct": true,
      "team_score_mae": 1.9878049999999998,
      "margin_error": 3.9756099999999996,
      "total_error": 0.32925999999999966,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892468",
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "engine": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "predicted": [
        3.176825,
        3.1524349999999997
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      "actual": [
        5,
        1
      ],
      "winner_correct": true,
      "team_score_mae": 1.9878049999999998,
      "margin_error": 3.9756099999999996,
      "total_error": 0.32925999999999966,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892468",
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "engine": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "predicted": [
        3.176825,
        3.1524349999999997
      ],
      "actual": [
        5,
        1
      ],
      "winner_correct": true,
      "team_score_mae": 1.9878049999999998,
      "margin_error": 3.9756099999999996,
      "total_error": 0.32925999999999966,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401892468",
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "engine": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "predicted": [
        3.176825,
        3.1524349999999997
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      "actual": [
        5,
        1
      ],
      "winner_correct": true,
      "team_score_mae": 1.9878049999999998,
      "margin_error": 3.9756099999999996,
      "total_error": 0.32925999999999966,
      "forecast_utc": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00",
      "source": {
        "file": "nhl_official_results.json",
        "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-10T05:31:41.929Z"
      },
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "prospective": true,
      "wager_result": "Forecast evaluation only; original production wagers graded in their own tracker."
    }
  ],
  "summary": [
    {
      "model": "Classic",
      "sport": "NBA",
      "season_type": 1,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.7934506856227626
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      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272,
      "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247,
      "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Classic",
      "sport": "NBA",
      "season_type": 1,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.7934506856227626
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272,
      "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247,
      "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Classic",
      "sport": "NCAAF",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 7,
      "hits": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714,
      "wilson95": [
        0.2504583645276572,
        0.8417801447485302
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 8.817182817182816,
      "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615,
      "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Classic",
      "sport": "NCAAF",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 7,
      "hits": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714,
      "wilson95": [
        0.2504583645276572,
        0.8417801447485302
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245,
      "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615,
      "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Classic",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 4,
      "hits": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.25,
      "wilson95": [
        0.04558726080970055,
        0.6993581574175981
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123,
      "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374,
      "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Classic",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 4,
      "hits": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.25,
      "wilson95": [
        0.04558726080970055,
        0.6993581574175981
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123,
      "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374,
      "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Classic",
      "sport": "WNBA",
      "season_type": 3,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.6576197724933469
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 4.247132307927764,
      "mean_margin_error": 6.831837312519141,
      "mean_total_error": 3.675026782981334,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Classic",
      "sport": "WNBA",
      "season_type": 3,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.6576197724933469
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 4.247132307927764,
      "mean_margin_error": 6.831837312519141,
      "mean_total_error": 3.675026782981334,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Primary",
      "sport": "NBA",
      "season_type": 1,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.7934506856227626
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866,
      "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095,
      "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Primary",
      "sport": "NBA",
      "season_type": 1,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.7934506856227626
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866,
      "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095,
      "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Primary",
      "sport": "NCAAF",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 7,
      "hits": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855,
      "wilson95": [
        0.15821985525146975,
        0.7495416354723428
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 9.604658405925223,
      "mean_margin_error": 15.642838084153757,
      "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Primary",
      "sport": "NCAAF",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 7,
      "hits": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855,
      "wilson95": [
        0.15821985525146975,
        0.7495416354723428
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652,
      "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493,
      "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Primary",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5,
      "wilson95": [
        0.15003898915214947,
        0.8499610108478506
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632,
      "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216,
      "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Primary",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5,
      "wilson95": [
        0.15003898915214947,
        0.8499610108478506
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632,
      "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216,
      "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Primary",
      "sport": "WNBA",
      "season_type": 3,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5,
      "wilson95": [
        0.09453120573423074,
        0.9054687942657693
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 3.4848775221885226,
      "mean_margin_error": 6.480237260700399,
      "mean_total_error": 3.780848351330178,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Primary",
      "sport": "WNBA",
      "season_type": 3,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5,
      "wilson95": [
        0.09453120573423074,
        0.9054687942657693
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 3.4848775221885226,
      "mean_margin_error": 6.480237260700399,
      "mean_total_error": 3.780848351330178,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "sport": "NBA",
      "season_type": 1,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.7934506856227626
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005,
      "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986,
      "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "sport": "NBA",
      "season_type": 1,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.7934506856227626
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005,
      "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986,
      "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "sport": "NCAAF",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 7,
      "hits": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714,
      "wilson95": [
        0.2504583645276572,
        0.8417801447485302
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 10.150412087912088,
      "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054,
      "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "sport": "NCAAF",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 7,
      "hits": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855,
      "wilson95": [
        0.15821985525146975,
        0.7495416354723428
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516,
      "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054,
      "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5,
      "wilson95": [
        0.15003898915214947,
        0.8499610108478506
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064,
      "mean_margin_error": 2.52134,
      "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5,
      "wilson95": [
        0.15003898915214947,
        0.8499610108478506
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064,
      "mean_margin_error": 2.52134,
      "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "sport": "WNBA",
      "season_type": 3,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.6576197724933469
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 5.051136249999999,
      "mean_margin_error": 7.727272499999998,
      "mean_total_error": 5.590909500000009,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF",
      "sport": "WNBA",
      "season_type": 3,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.6576197724933469
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 5.051136249999999,
      "mean_margin_error": 7.727272499999998,
      "mean_total_error": 5.590909500000009,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NBA",
      "season_type": 1,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.7934506856227626
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005,
      "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986,
      "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NBA",
      "season_type": 1,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.7934506856227626
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005,
      "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986,
      "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NCAAF",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 7,
      "hits": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714,
      "wilson95": [
        0.2504583645276572,
        0.8417801447485302
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 10.150412087912088,
      "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054,
      "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NCAAF",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 7,
      "hits": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855,
      "wilson95": [
        0.15821985525146975,
        0.7495416354723428
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516,
      "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054,
      "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5,
      "wilson95": [
        0.15003898915214947,
        0.8499610108478506
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064,
      "mean_margin_error": 2.52134,
      "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5,
      "wilson95": [
        0.15003898915214947,
        0.8499610108478506
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064,
      "mean_margin_error": 2.52134,
      "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "WNBA",
      "season_type": 3,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.6576197724933469
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 5.051136249999999,
      "mean_margin_error": 7.727272499999998,
      "mean_total_error": 5.590909500000009,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "WNBA",
      "season_type": 3,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "accuracy": 0.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.0,
        0.6576197724933469
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-09",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 5.051136249999999,
      "mean_margin_error": 7.727272499999998,
      "mean_total_error": 5.590909500000009,
      "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means."
    }
  ],
  "exclusions": "Houston-Dallas already elapsed before Oct9 four-model follow-up; excluded from this prospective comparison cohort. Primary original morning record remains separate."
}